Posted on 08/31/2002 by Juan
Combatting extremism in Yemen
Asharq al-Awsat reports that Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Salih has formed a council of senior Muslim clergymen to preach to Yemen’s youth, especially returnees from Afghanistan, about the dangers of religious extremism. They will conduct open discussion and dialogue sessions, both voluntary and with extremists in prison. Non-government sources estimate that hundreds of young Yemenis are in prison on charges of belonging to al-Qaida or to Yemen’s al-Jihad al-Islami. The latter organization, founded in 1992 by returnees from the jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan, consists of about 200 individuals and has run terrorist training camps in Yemen’s mountainous regions.
Yemen is cooperating with the FBI and the US military in chasing down al-Qaida elements in that country.
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Posted on 08/30/2002 by Juan
al-Qaida Funding
Two contradictory reports are out. Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal says that his government has blocked $90 mn. from going to al-Qaida in the past few months. (That it was blocked is the good news. That Saudis still want to send that kind of money to al-Qaida is the bad news).
The other report was leaked from the United Nations Security Council, saying that efforts to stop money from going to al-Qaida have stalled internationally and it is still getting substantial funding.
This latter conclusion has long been my own conviction. The petroleum wealth in the Gulf, plus the wealth of Islamist expatriates in the West, has created very large numbers of persons for whom a $100,000 contribution is simply not that big a deal. If even a relatively small number of these persons is pro-al-Qaida, they could fund it to the tune of $ 1 mn. per every ten contributors. A thousand of them could come up with very substantial money for terrorist operations, which can often be done on the cheap. Money is fungible, and stopping them from transferring these funds would require a whole new micro-surveillance of wealth transfers in the world. You have to fight al-Qaida by tracking its members down, infiltrating its constituent networks, and developing better human intelligence generally. You can’t completely turn of the money spigots from above.
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Posted on 08/29/2002 by Juan
al-Qaida in Iran
Iran has denied a Washington Post report that two senior al-Qaida figures are hiding out in far eastern Iran near the Afghan border, saying it has a policy of not giving asylum to al-Qaida members.
One thing no one has pointed out is that the southeast of Iran is very rugged and dominated by a tribal, Sunni Baluch population not exactly friendly to the ayatollahs in Tehran. I wonder if Baluchi patrons or criminal elements (Zahedan lives on smuggling) have taken money to shelter the al-Qaida leaders? If so, we should find out. Tehran is not powerful in that part of Iran, but it can go in and get someone if it wants.
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Posted on 08/28/2002 by Juan
Bin Ladin Back in Control?
Al-Quds al-`Arabi, a London newspaper, is reporting that Bin Ladin is firmly back in control of al-Qa’ida and that the organization is digging in for a guerilla war against the US presence in Afghanistan.
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Posted on 08/23/2002 by Juan
No Security Council Resolution?
The Los Angeles Times reported today that the Bush administration will likely not seek a UN Security Council Resolution authorizing war against Iraq. The report said that Bush fears a veto by Russia or China. Most US European allies, and even some in the Middle East, such as Kuwait, have said such a resolution would be necessary before they could agree to support such a US move.
Earlier reports had speculated that the US could get a favorable Security Council resolution, since China usually abstains on such matters and Russia needs US economic aid and good will. Of course, France is also opposed to an Iraq war. If it is true that Bush has given up on the security council, it means that the US is really isolated on this issue.
The depth of the opposition to such a war in the Arab world has probably been underestimated by the administration all along, and the degree of influence the Arab League states have with France, Russia and China is also not negligible.
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