Posted on 10/31/2002 by Juan
Iranian President Khatami attacked the idea of a US war against Iraq forcefully while in Spain this week.
Officially, Iran has all along loudly denounced the idea of a US invasion of Iraq. . The ruling ayatollahs are afraid, I think of having the US in place on both major borders–in Afghanistan and in Iraq. They would be surrounded! And, Bush after all named them as part of an axis of evil and they have reason to be afraid that they are next on his hit list.
On the other hand, the expatriate Iraqi group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, headed by the Hakim family, is hosted by Tehran and has been in close contact with the Pentagon about cooperating with an American attack. SCIRI has 10,000 troops in its al-Badr Brigade, which could come across from Iran into Iraq to support a US invasion. Although SCIRI has been criticized for these contacts by some ayatollahs, to my knowledge it has not been stopped from exploring them.
The idea of a Shi`ite-dominated Iraq, which is what would develop if Iraq had a parliamentary democracy (they are 60-65% of the population) must be appealing to Tehran.
So, I think they are of two minds about it.
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Posted on 10/30/2002 by Juan
The Jordanian officials are conducting interrogations of Muslim fundamentalists in Jordan concering the assassination of Laurence Foley, the head of US AID in Amman. An al-Qaeda link is suspected, but it is also admitted that in the current atmosphere it could have been the act of a local group. A group called Honest People of Jordan has taken responsibility, according to UPI. The group’s statement on a web site indicated they had acted because of US support for Israeli actions in the West Bank. They appear to be radical Islamists.
This brutal murder will set back, not aid their cause. Foley, 60, had devoted his life to development efforts, and was trying to help Jordanians, who, God knows, need economic development aid. It is to weep.
In the meantime, two mansions belonging to a major tribal leader in Yemen were blown up, and an al-Qaeda connection is suspected there, too. This tribal leader had cooperated with Yemeni government attempts to curb al-Qaeda activities in that country.
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Posted on 10/29/2002 by Juan
Feuding in Northern Afghanistan
US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and US Ambassador to Afghanistan Robert Finn met with warlords in Mazar-i Sharif Monday. The factional fighting between soldiers loyal to Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum and Tajik commander Muhammad Atta has roiled the hinterlands of Mazar in the past few months. The fighting is local, and often appears to break out with no order from the commander. But it is interfering in the development of the north and the return of security.
Northern Afghanistan has the mineral wealth and the infrastructure to help lead the rest of the country back to economic health if its leaders can get their act together. It is not clear, however, that just having high-level meetings with the warlords will resolve the problems. They are warlords. This is what they do–fight for territory and perks. Until the US can train a national army and can demobilize or incorporate these militias, they will likely go on fighting with one another. I suppose they can be kept partially in check by the threat of the US use of air forces against them if they get out of hand. But actually attacking Afghans now is politically difficult and could create a backlash, especially in the Pushtun south where a lot of people do not like the Americans to begin with.
The other possibility is to withhold international aid disbursements as a way of influencing the warlords. This seems to be being tried. I am not sure it can succeed.
Down the road there may be a showdown. President Karzai is already talking of sacking regional governors who can’t keep the peace. This is mainly bravado, since Dostum and his forces, and Atta and his, could at the moment wipe the mat with Karzai and his tiny armed force in Kabul.
The brilliant strategy the US employed to overthrow the Taliban, of enlisting the old Mujahidin warlords in the effort, has now come back to haunt us. With Afghanistanis again in danger of starving in large numbers this winter and in desperate need of development aid, the feuds of the warlords are too costly to be borne. But there are few good options for stopping them.
Khalilzad expressed himself sanguine about the recent elections in Pakistan, which put the fundamentalist parties in charge of the Northwest Frontier, where al-Qaeda and Taliban elements are still hiding out. The parties say they want to expel US armed forces and FBI agents tracking down the terrorists. Khalilzad says that security is a Federal responsibility and that fundamentalist control of the provinces is irrelevant. This point is probably true, since the army will decide these things. But the problem is that there are many sympathizers in the army with the fundamentalists. And, moreover, the fundamentalists may well be a swing vote or a coalition partner in the Federal parliament, so they aren’t just a problem in the provinces.
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Posted on 10/28/2002 by Juan
Iraq War would bring increase in Terrorism: Oxford Report
Jane Merrick of the Press Association reported that the Oxford Research Group believes and Iraq war will increase terrorism by al-Qaeda against the United States. It believes that 10,000 civilians will die in an American attack on Iraq. Paul Rogers, a professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University, said that Saddam would likely use chemical and biological weapons in the war. He foresaw an increase in support for al-Qaeda as a backlash against the war in the region.
Rogers thinks Saddam will try to draw the war out and make it as costly as possible for the Americans. “Almost certainly, the dominant strand of thinking within the Saddam Hussein regime is the imperative for survival. This must not be underestimated – it transcends every other objective.”
Meanwhile, evidence mounts of Serbian-Bosnian involvement in supplying military materiel to Iraq.
And, at the United Nations, France is now calling for a meeting of the foreign ministers of the Security Council states, to hammer out a compromise resolution on weapons inspections in Iraq. The US has been pressing for a resolution that would be broad enough to authorize military action without the necessity of coming back to the council. Russia and France are strongly resisting such language.
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Posted on 10/27/2002 by Juan
Fate of Iraqi Political Prisoners Unknown
Iraqi organizations and notables in London have called on the Iraqi government to account for what they claim are tens of thousands of political prisoners. These were supposed to have been released in the general amnesty bestowed during the past week, but they were not. (Reported by Asharq al-Awsat).
Thousands of university professors, Shi`ite clerics, Kurds, Iraqis of Iranian extraction, and dissidents have disappeared in Iraq since 1980, especially during the uprisings of March, 1991, in the wake of the Gulf War.
The call for a full accounting of the ‘disappeared’ and imprisoned was launched by Muhammad Bahr al-`Ulum and `Alam al-Din in London. Iraqi expatriates also addressed appeals to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to ensure that Security Council Resolution 688 requiring the Iraqi regime to ensure human rights for its citizens be implemented.
The odiousness of the Saddam Hussein regime and the fact that it has killed or imprisoned so many are among the things that make it hard for me to take a strong stand against the idea of regime change.
In other Iraq news, President Bush said in Mexico City that he is willing to go to war with Iraq without a mandate from the UN Security Council.
Earth to George: This would be a Very Bad Idea.
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