Informed Comment

Thousands of Sadrists Demonstrate in Kirkuk

AFP reports that nearly 2000 members of the Army of the Mahdi, the militia headed by young Shiite radical Muqtada al-Sadr, demonstrated in Kirkuk on Saturday. The demonstration coincided with a general strike by the city’s approximately 300,000 Turkmen residents. Even the police stayed home.

Ibrahim Khayyat at al-Hayat provides further details. Muqtada’s representative in Kirkuk, Abdul Fattah al-Musawi, said, “The goal of putting 18 companies, or 1750 men (and 180 women), on parade, was to reinforce the unity of Muslim Iraqis with non-Muslim Iraqis. “Kirkuk,” he said, “is for all its inhabitants, not just for a particular group.”

The parade lasted for about two hours. The Shiites of Kirkuk and of the surrounding area joined in, raising the Iraqi flag (the Kurds have their own provincial flag), and pictures of Muqtada and of his father, Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr (who was assassinated by Saddam in 1999).

Jalal Jawhar of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan said that there was no objection to the demonstration, since it was part of democracy, but that it had to remain peaceful. He also considered that “the goal of parading troops was to demonstrate the power of Muqtada’s supporters and to underline their presence.”

One of the issues that has derailed the passage of a fundamental law or interim constitution by the Interim Govering Council is Kurdish demands. The Kurdish parties insist on a very loose federalism, Swiss style, and they also want Kirkuk added to a consolidated Kurdish province. Kirkuk has never been a majority Kurdish city, since the Turkmen predominated there, and since the 1990s Saddam expelled thousands of Kurds and brought in Arab residents. The city is said to be one third, Turkmen, one third Arab and one third Kurdish. Ethnic violence broke out in January in the wake of a public Kurdish call for the city to be added to the Kurdish province. There are many petroleum wellheads around Kirkuk, and the Kurds want control of them. They want, as in Canada, for the provincial government to control petroleum in its province.

The Kurdish demands on Kirkuk are absolutely unacceptable to the Sunni Arabs and Turkmen. A loose federalism has long been rejected by the Shiite al-Da`wa Party. As far back as 1996, al-Da`wa broke with Ahmad Chalabi’s Iraqi National Congress in large part because he had acquiesced to the Kurdish demands for loose federalism. Likewise, the Sadrists want a strong central government.

One question I have is about the ethnicity of Muqtada’s supporters in Kirkuk. I’ve been told that perhaps a majority of the Turkmen are Shiites, and that they have in recent decades given up their unorthodox folk religion for orthodox Twelver Shiism, and that many followed Sadiq al-Sadr. Among the hundreds of thousands of Arabs relocated north by Saddam were, in addition, lots of Shiites. It would be interesting to know if the Army of the Mahdi militia in Kirkuk is mixed ethnically, with both Turkmen and Arabs.

Al-Musawi’s statement about reinforcing ties with non-Muslims is also bizarre, and one wonders if the Sadrists are trying to put together a Shiite-Chaldean alliance against the Kurds in the north. If you combined the 600,000 Iraqi Christians, many of whom are in Ninevah province, with the 600,000 Turkmen or so, and added to them all the Arabs relocated to the north by Saddam, it would be a non-trivial alliance against the 4 million or so Iraqi Kurds.

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Sistani’s Representative in Karbala Rejects Referendum on Provincial Council>

ash-Sharq al-Awsat/ AFP: Shaikh Abdul Mahdi al-Karbala’i, the representative in Karbala of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, rejected the suggestion by another cleric that the provincial council appointed by CPA official John Berry be submitted to a referendum. He said that an appointed council is by its nature illegitimate, and called on its members to resign.

Shaikh Husain al-Sadr, who is influential in the Kazimiyah suburb of Baghdad, had agreed with Perry that having a referendum was the best path forward. Shaikh Husain’s representative tried to convince Berry to reduce the number of women on the council from 11 to 5.

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Vigilanteism in Basra

Scheherezade Faramarzi of AP reports on the Shiite militias of Basra and the way they are imposing both law and order, and a puritan style of life on the population (though sometimes they do some kidnapping or coercion of their own).

The militias pose a long-term problem for Iraqi security, since they violate the state’s monopoly on the use of force. And they are depriving persons of rights they have under the law (e.g. to own and operate a video store that purveys a little flesh). They are coercing women into wearing scarves or veils, and it is difficult to see how women’s rights can make any progress in Basra under these circumstances.

The question is whether Basra is in an exceptional situation, or whether it is a harbinger of the future of Iraq.

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What a Document Looks like

Jonathan Schanzer, writing in the Weekly Standard, notes that I had asked Bill Safire for even a single “document” that shows that Saddam Hussein’s government cooperated with al-Qaeda before September 11. He suggests that we might substitute for such a document his interview with Abdul Rahman al-Shamari, who he says served in Saddam’s secret police, the Mukhabarat, from 1997 to 2002, and who is now “in a Kurdish jail.”

No, Jonathan. That isn’t a document. That is a single-sourced account from a prisoner (assuming he exists and assuming he actually was mukhabarat) who wants to get out of jail and has every reason to tell people what they want to hear. Or for all I know the Kurds have paid or coerced him to say these things, since they want US help against their Islamists.

A document has the following characteristics. It originates close to the time of the event it describes. Typically it is written on paper with ink. It has all the hallmarks of authenticity. So, for instance, a memo from an Iraqi intelligence officer dated January 5, 2000, discussing cooperation with al-Qaeda, written down in black ink and by an officer we actually know was really serving at that time, on paper of the sort used by the Baath government, with all the bureaucratic form of a Baath document–that would be a document. Since the US now has thousands of documents from the Iraqi secret police, if such a document existed we would not be speculating about it–it would have been splashed on the front pages of all the newspapers of the world. It likely does not exist.

Single-source allegations by shadowy Iraqi ex-officers were among the fallacies that pulled us into the war to begin with. And, no, the way to confirm al-Shamari’s story is not to find yet another stooge who has been coerced or paid to say the same things. It is to provide the sort of evidence that would stand up in court. I’m a historian. I go by evidence. If I’m wrong, and the evidence surfaces to prove it, I will gladly change my views. Al-Shamari, about whom we know nothing, is useless for that purpose.

In good journalism, by the way, you don’t go to print with a single uncorroborated source.

Mr. Schanzer does himself no favors with regard to credibility by associating himself with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which was a major source of disinformation about Iraq before the war, and which should by all rights have lost all credibility by now.

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6 US Soldiers wounded in 24 hours

Wire services quoted by al-Jazeerah report that guerrillas wounded three US soldiers with rocket-propelled grenade fire Thursday night near Tikrit.

On Friday morning, guerrillas in Tikrit lightly wounded another two US troops in a bom blast. A third soldier was seriously wounded in an attack on his convoy in Khallis, northeast of Baghdad.

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Islamists on IGC Defeated on Islamic Law Provision

Raghida Dergham reports in al-Hayat that the representatives on the Interim Governing Council of the Islamist tendency suffered a political defeat on Friday when the IGC abrogated Directive 137, which it had issued in late December, and which put personal status law in the jurisdiction of religious courts. If implemented, the order would have abrogated the uniform civil personal status law of 1959.

An informed source reported to Dergham that IGC member Raja’ al-Khuza’i, a maternity physician who missed the first vote, was the one who insisted that the directive be reconsidered in light of the angry public response to it. (Many women’s groups had mounted protests). After a heated discussion, the measure went to a vote of the 24-member council, and the directive was voted down 15 to 9. In the late December meeting, held when Raja’i and another woman member, Songol Chapouk, were absent, the directive had passed 11 to 10.

She says that observers maintain that the vote will establish a new dynamic on the council that will be important as the IGC discusses the place of Islam in Iraqi legislation. The special meeting of the IGC called on Friday was to discuss the Fundamental Law or interim constitution it is now drafting, which was supposed to be completed by the end of February (this goal seems unlikely to be met).

The Islamists on the council are said to have left angry, and it was up to Bremer to attempt to conciliate them.

At the same time, according to ash-Sharq al-Awsat, a conference was held of secular parties in Iraq afraid that the country might move toward theocracy when the Americans withdraw. The two main Kurdish parties attended, along with Adnan Pachachi’s party, Hamid Majid Musa’s Iraqi Communist Party, and Nasir Chadirchi’s National Democratic Party.

In Kufa, Dergham reports, the young Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr renewed his threat to lead a rebellion if the US civil administrator Paul Bremer continued to reject the position that Islam be specified is the sole source of legislation in the new constitution. He said he would persevere in this path, “even if I am killed or imprisoned.” He said in his sermon, “America only came to harm Islam, but the occupiers will not be able to wipe out Islam . . . I call on the believers to be fully prepared, when the orders come from the religious leadership, to challenge the occupation.”

Muqtada added, “I call upon the governing council to announce a rebellion against the decision, and I demand of Bremer personally to retreat from his statement against Islam.” He said he would continue on this path even if he were killed or imprisoned.

In the meantime, a spokesman for the United Nations in New York considered it a positive sign that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has indicated a willingness to see elections held late in 2004. He said that if the Iraqis want to hold elections then, they would have to launch themselves into action immediately, and affirmed that the UN was ready to help. He added, “We are still waiting for a sign from the Iraqis demonstrating that they accept Brahimi’s recommendations.”

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Abdul Hamid Confronted over his Allegation that the Shiites are a Minority

The Kuwaiti newspaper al-Qabas reports that it had a further confrontation with Muhsin Abdul Hamid, leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party and February’s president of the Interim Governing council. Al-Qabas and other news sources reported recently that Abdul Hamid maintained that Shiites constituted less than 40% of Iraq’s population, i.e. that they are a minority. When Abdul Hamid visited Riyadh recently, he denied having made the statement. Actually, he denied having said that Sunni Iraqis would impose their will on Shiites because Sunnis are the majority.. On his return he stopped off in Kuwait and met with the press. Al-Qabas presented him with an audiotape cassette containing his statement that Shiites are a minority and challenged his allegation that he had been misquoted. (Al-Qabas had not in any case reported that he said Sunnis would impose their will on Shiites; that was some news service.) On the cassette, Abdul Hamid clearly says, “The Sunnis are the majority in Iraq.”

When confronted by Nasir al-`Utaybi, Abdul Hamid said, “The press sometimes corners us, but we are a single people, and give each other mutual aid, and we work together on the governing council and off it.”

He added that Iraq is erasing the past and building a new relationship of fraternity and good relations with its neighbors first of all.

He denied that the Iraqi Islamic Party has any relationship to the Muslim Brotherhood. “We are not responsible for their past positions, whether negative or positive.” He repeated his repudiation of the invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

In fact, the Iraqi Islamic Party did begin as an Iraqi branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, whatever its current relationship to the mother group in Cairo.

Social scientists estimate that Shiites are between 60 and 65 percent of the Iraqi population, but many Sunni Iraqis have trouble coming to terms with this social fact. Abdul Hamid is outgoing as president of the IGC as of March 1.

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