Informed Comment

Explosions in Baquba, Baghdad

AP reports that ‘ In Baqouba . . . an explosion occurred Thursday in the city center and witnesses said three police cars were on fire. ‘. It continues,

‘ The U.S. command said [a] fuel truck, assigned to the 1st Armored Division, was hit by a roadside bomb in the western Baghdad suburb of Abu Ghraib. “A convoy of U.S. Army trucks was attacked,” Mahir Obeid, said. “One of them was blown up by a roadside bomb while another was hit with a (rocket propelled grenade). Both of them caught fire.” ‘

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Army of the Helpers of the Sunnah a Major Insurgent Group

Al-Hayat newspaper in London says it has gotten hold of many memos and videotapes concerning Jaysh Ansar al-Sunnah and pointing to its relationship with the Kurdish radical Islamist group, Ansar al-Islam. The memos say that the Army of the Helpers of the Sunnah (AHS) has carried out 285 attacks against Coalition forces, has killed 1155 persons and wounded 160 [sic], and has destroyed dozens of helicopters, tanks and troop transports.

The memos show that there is a central leadership of the AHS, which follows a leader or “amir” named Abu `Abdullah al-Hasan Bin Mahmud. It refers in numerous places to Ansar al-Islam, the largely Kurdish terrorist group which has some Afghanistan veterans in its ranks. It contains a statement from the organization’s leader, and an explanation of its structure (it comprises a number of jihadi groups operating from the north to the south of the country). Its goal is to create an army under a single leader, which can undertake a practical program not imported from abroad, “depending on the teachings of the pure [Islamic] Law.” It issues a call to “brothers in Islam and jihad to join this army.” (I wonder if the stricture against ‘imports from abroad’ is aimed at keeping independent of al-Qaeda, which would be perceived by Iraqi guerrillas as non-Iraqi in leadership).

Abu Abdullah led the group from last June, when it appears to have been formed, until January 2. (I am not clear here what al-Hayat is trying to say–was the last memo dated Jan. 2, or is there evidence of him stepping down?)

The memos claim that the organization was behind the 29 November attack on Spanish intelligence agents in the village of Latifiyah, which killed 7 and wounded 1 [the memo says 'wounded 8']. On 5 Jan. they claim to have killed 8 Canadian and British intelligence agents in two Chevrolets, in Yusufiyah in the southwest of Baghdad [no such incident was reported in wire services around this date according to Lexis Nexis].

Cassettes found with the memos list 6 suicide bombers and detail their missions in recent months.

The materials deny a relationship between AHS and the group known as Volcano.

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Cole Interviews with Chicago Public Radio’s Worldview

Those of you with RealAudio can listen to two interviews I did with Chicago Public Radio’s Worldview program, hosted by Jerome McDonnell. The interviews are listed under February 26. One treats the Americana in Arabic Translation Library. The other is on the issue of transitional government in Iraq. Thanks to Jerome for excellent questions, and to him and Dave McGuire for seeking the interviews.

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We may as Well Just Record all our Telephone Calls and send them to Maryland

Philip Knightley and Kim Sengupta describe how the US National Security Agency and the British Government Communications Headquarters eavesdrop on the whole world. The NSA is forbidden from listening in on Americans without a warrant, but the US government circumvents this problem by formally allowing the GCHQ to spy on Americans. The NSA listens in on British calls, and then the two just swap the information.

The NSA is ten times larger with regard to personnel than the CIA, with a budget larger than the other intelligence agencies as well ($8 bn. out of about $30 bn. total). Frankly, after September 11 I think most Americans would be happier if it listens in on calls in Pakistan and Afghanistan and Hamburg a little more intently than in the past. It is not so clear that they would be happy to know it was listening in on Americans not under any suspicion of criminality.

The GCHQ was founded in 1946, but I heard somewhere that the deal on having the US spy on British citizens and the British on US, and then swapping the data, goes back to World War II.

The current row over GCHQ in New York monitoring UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s phone calls was in some sense begun in spring of 2003 when GCHQ employee Katharine Gunn blew the whistle on the US and the British governments, revealing that the US had asked GCHQ to listen in on the phone calls of the UN ambassadors of 6 swing vote countries on the Security Council with regard to the building Iraq war. The British government seriously considered prosecuting Gunn, but backed off just a few days ago. Some have suggested that the British authorities began worrying that if the case went to court, Gunn’s attorney would demand to see the memos of Lord Goldsmith, the British attorney general, on the legality of the Iraq war. We know from one leaked memo that he felt that without a UN Security Council resolution, a prolonged Anglo-American occupation of Iraq would likely involve the two in policy making that contravened international law (as it has). Others say that it just seemed highly unlikely a British jury would convict Gunn, given how unpopular the war and occupation have been in the UK.

This week, ex-British cabinet member Clare Short, who broke with Tony Blair over the Iraq war, revealed that while on the cabinet she had seen transcripts of Kofi Annan’s telephone calls.

Now it turns out that whenever UN weapons inspector Hans Blix was in Iraq, his cell phone was monitored. That Blix was under surveillance and that transcripts of his phone calls were shared among the US, the UK, Australia and Canada, puts a new spin on the Blix allegation last summer that he had been the object of a smear campaign by officials in the US Department of Defense. If Feith, Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld had his personal phone calls, they were in a position to cook up plausible smears against him. Blix maintains that the authority of the United Nations has been perhaps irretrievably damaged by the very countries who should have been supporting it.

The Blix wiretaps raise an interesting question. Did the US and UK know even more about the lack of evidence for weapons of mass destruction than we thought, from what Blix was saying privately in spring of 2003 before the war?

While the GCHQ listening in on phone calls in the US is apparently just a regular occurrence, tapping Kofi Annan’s line would be illegal because the UN headquarters is not considered US soil. Whatever deal Roosevelt and Churchill made about each spying on the other’s citizens doesn’t apply at the UN.

The framers of the US constitution wanted individuals to have a reasonable expectation of privacy in their own homes, and wanted the police to leave them alone unless there was good evidence they had committed a crime. The rise of the National Security State during WW II and in the Cold War has effectively gutted the constitution in this regard for all practical purposes. The Patriot Act more or less repeals the Bill of Rights, which has bedevilled successive US regimes, especially that of Richard Nixon, who now finally has his revenge.

I suppose the real question is whether, when Bin Laden boasted, “I will take away their freedom,” it was an empty boast or an accurate prediction.

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Sistani Reaffirms demand for Elections by end of Year

The NYT reports that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has again said the UN needs to set a date certain for direct elections in Iraq, which Kofi Annan said could plausibly be held in December or January if preparations begin being made now. He clearly wants those preparations to start, and he wants an international guarantee of a date certain. He also reaffirmed what he has said before, which is that the caretaker transitional government that will hold sovereignty from June 30 until the elections should be very limited in its powers and decisions, since it will lack the legitimacy that comes from being popularly elected. What is new here is only that Sistani seems to be saying that his earlier deadline of October 1 for elections could slip to December or January, but no later.

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High Baghdad Official Forced to Resign over Veiling Issue

Az-Zaman reports that Jawad Kadhim al-Anani, appointed to a high position in the Baghdad provincial government just twenty-four hours before, was forced to resign because he had immediately issued a decree requiring enforced veiling of women municipal employees during business hours. He thereby deeply offended hundreds of female government employees. Some employees say there have not been formal actions taken against them for not veiling, but that they receive various forms of pressure to do so. (“Veiling” here probably means wearing a headscarf and modest clothing with long sleeves and hemlines).

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Mahmoud Uthman: IGC too Weak to be given Sovereignty

In an interview with ash-Sharq al-Awsat, Kurdish Interim Governing Council (IGC) member Mahmoud Uthman (Osman) said that a national congress should be held to elect a transitional parliament, He said that sovereignty should not be handed to the existing IGC because it is weak and lacks unity. He blamed the Coalition Provisional Authority, which has the real decision-making powers, for the weakness of the IGC, saying it had been reduced to an advisory council. He complained that the UN Security Council had erred grievously in allowing one country to rule another directly in the 21st century, quite apart from the good deed the US did in removing Saddam.

Uthman imagines a national congress meeting late this spring, composed of tribal leaders, party heads, clerics, and other notables, who might be able to elect a government that then had some legitimacy. His proposal sounded to me rather like the Loya Jirga in Afghanistan that produced the Karzai government. It did to his interview, Shirzad Shaikhani, as well, and Shaikhani asked Uthman if he meant a sort of Loya Jirga. Uthman replied “To some extent.”.

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