Chatham House: Iraq from Bad to Worse
Chatham House, formerly the Royal Institute for International Affairs, has issued a highly pessimistic report (in pdf format) on Iraq. At best, it argues, the US and the UK will just muddle through in Iraq, but will fail to attain goals like installing a democracy, and stability will remain elusive. At worst, the authors of the report imagine Iraq falling apart as Yugoslavia did. They warn that the lesson of Yugoslavia is that old neighbors who lived peacefully together for decades can learn to hate each other violently virtually overnight.
I don’t personally find the break-up scenario very likely. Iraqis are generally very committed to their nation, and none of the neighbors would stand for a split. It could happen, but I find it only a remote possibility.