Informed Comment

Bush Falsehoods about Iraq

Adam Entous of Reuters is too polite to put it this way, but the conclusion is easily extracted from his article that Bush played fast and loose with the facts on Iraq last week.

Bush said that the UN electoral advisers are on the ground. In fact, there are only a handful there because it is so dangerous. Voter registration hasn’t been conducted. Almost no preparations have been made, and the poor security situation may prevent them from being accomplished.

Bush spoke of 100,000 “fully trained and equipped” Iraqi soldiers & police.

In fact, only 22,700 Iraqi troops and police have received even minimal training, and only a few thousand are fully trained. The article is worth reading in full, and by the time you get to the end it is clear that Bush was either lying or ignorant, neither of these being a good posture for a president.

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5 US Troops, at least 9 Iraqis Dead

Violence up 36 Percent in Iraq

The incidents of violence on Friday and Saturday in Iraq that appeared in the newspapers were a very small proportion of the whole. The press did tell us that guerrillas killed 5 US troops in separate incidents on Friday and Saturday. The US continued to bomb Fallujah, killing 9 and wounding 16.

Rajiv Chandrasekaran of the Washington Post has gotten hold of some daily violence reports on Iraq done for the US Agency for International Development by Kroll Security International. They demonstrate that my point on Friday about most of Iraq being dangerous was correct, but apparently I should have colored in more of the map red than I did. There are continuing acts of violence in Amarah and Samarra. Muthanna province should not have been white. Attacks are occurring everywhere but the three majority-Kurdish provinces in the far north, on a regular basis, some 70 a day nation-wide. These include car bombings, rocket propelled grenade attacks, machine gun attacks, etc. In June there had been 40 to 50 such attacks per day, so the situation is getting worse. He writes:

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‘ After his speech to a joint meeting of Congress on Thursday, Allawi described Baghdad as “very good and safe.” In fact, during the period for which security reports were available, the number of attacks in the capital averaged 22 a day.

On Wednesday, there were 28 separate hostile incidents in Baghdad, including five rocket-propelled grenade attacks, six roadside bombings and a suicide bombing in which a car exploded at a National Guard recruiting station, killing at least 11 people and wounding more than 50. ‘

For the original of the poll results (from June and July, a long time ago) cited by President Bush recently see see the International Republican Reserch powerpoint slides.

Some of the results don’t favor Bush policies.

Crime, unemployment and infrastructure are the biggest concerns people have. (This is because they are the biggest problems people actually face daily).

70% want Islam and Shariah as the basis of the state, and 73% want to ensure the Islamic identity of the state. (I had misremembered this as 80% but anyway wasn’t far off).

64% of the population think security is the number 1 issue. (As we have seen, it is getting worse).

Slide 23: 3/4s of Iraqis feel government is there to take care of people, and are basically socialists in outlook.

On a different subject, a report on the treatment of the Turkmen minority in northern Iraq is in this report.

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Two Faces of Bush

This graphic is part of a new Democratic Party initiative to focus on the “two-facedness” of George W. Bush, which is apparently conceived broadly.

The thing the graphic most reminded me of was Bush’s angry performance at the Cabinet meeting that discussed Fallujah in early April of 2004, where Newsweek says he commanded, “Heads must roll!” His temper and recklessness in such key moments contrast vividly with the folksy image he projects on the campaign trail. Over 600 Iraqis died, many of them women and children, from aerial bombardments and tank assaults on residential areas that had not previously been directly involved in the insurgency.

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US Assault on Ramadi

Rockets in Baghdad Kill 4

Sadrists, AMS threaten Fresh Uprisings

President George W. Bush cited a poll done in June and July to argue that Iraqis are more optimistic about their future than Americans are about theirs. First of all, even if this were true, it is not good news for Bush.

Second of all, that poll was done before the US assault on Najaf, and the significant deterioration of the security situation in August and September. Many Iraqis had at that time been willing to give Allawi a chance, hoping security would improve. I am sure those numbers would be much lower now.

Moreover, the same poll found that more than 80 percent of Iraqis want an Islamic Republic with Islamic canon law or shariah as the law of the land. So if they are optimistic, it is because they think they can achieve such a goal over US objections. Again, this is not actually good news for Bush.

Nancy Youssef of Knight Ridder has an exclusive from Baghdad reporting that US air strikes on Iraqi cities and other actions have killed twice as many Iraqis (many of them civilian bystanders) since early April as have the actions of the nationalist guerrillas.

Al-Zawra Newspaper gives a useful overview of the specific guerrilla groups fighting in Iraq.

Ramadi

AP reports that the US military launched a major assault on the city of Ramadi on Friday. Warplanes and helicopter gunships flew above as US ground forces engaged in battles near the government buildings. Al-Zaman says that the fighting began when US froces surrounded the city on all sides and called for civilian inhabitants to evacuate, and then went in. Some 7 Iraqis, probably civilian by-standers, were wounded and sought treatment at the hospital. Typically wounded guerrillas do not go to the hospitals for fear of capture.

Fallujah

US war planes bombed Fallujah’s industrial district on Friday, killing 8 and wounding 15.

Baghdad

Guerrillas trying to bombard a police recruitment station in Baghdad missed and hit Palestine Street, killing 4 persons and wounding 14.

A series of explosions could be heard in the capital Friday evening, probably at Haifa Street, which has become a stonghold of the militant Monotheism and Holy War organization that came to Iraq from Jordan.

Late Thursday, the Italian Embassy took mortar fire.

At a demonstration outside Abu Ghuraib Shaikh Abdul Salam al-Kubaisi of the Association of Muslim Scholars called on National Guardsmen to rebel against the government of Iyad Allawi. AMS has affiliations to some 8000 Sunni mosques in Iraq and has emerged as the most popular Sunni Arab leadership. ArabNews writes that Kubaisi said,

‘ “It is strange to hear someone announce that Iraq cannot achieve democracy without the Americans,” referring to Allawi “who has abandoned Islamic, regional and patriotic principles, forgets that America is the one that slaughtered its native Americans and killed millions of Red Indians. He forgets that America is the first to have made mass graves by bombing Hiroshima.” . . . “We live in strange times. As practically everyone is condemning America and its conquering of Iraq, we see a small bit of scum fighting the current, calling America a liberator and friend,” referring to Allawis speech praising the US invasion. . . .

“Let it be clear for everyone that the traitors … cannot give orders. To die for the country, to be a martyr is not death. Death is for those who betray their religion, soil, honour and country.” . . .

“Today Iraq is facing the biggest conspiracy, a conspiracy to eliminate its most faithful people, all the faithful whether Muslim or Christian, Arab or Kurd or Turkmen … That is why the Americans have formed the Iraqi national guard and police”. Kubaisi described the nascent Iraqi security forces as “just a cover in order to sabotage Iraq … Because of this I call for the leaders of the national guard and police not to obey their orders which are meant to make them the first spear, the first arrow as the criminal of the century Bush says.” Kubaisi concluded calling on the Iraqis to unite in a peaceful resistance against the fear and terror inflicted upon them by the US-invader and to be confident of victory. ‘

On Thursday night, guerrillas had fired mortar shells at a Shiite mosque in the Abu Dishar quarter of southern Baghdad, putting a sizeable hole in its dome and damaging the courtyard.

Kufa

A leader of the Sadr movement threatened a new uprising on Friday.

In Kufa, Shaikh Hashim Abu Raghif– an aide to Muqtada al-Sadr — denounced recent moves by US Marines and Iraqi police in Najaf to raid Sadrist offices and arrest the movement’s leaders. It was widely felt among Shiites in Iraq, even among those who dislike the Sadrists, and the raids and arrests contavened the terms of a peace agreement brokered by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. He was among those who complained about the recent raids.

Shaikh Abu Raghif said at the Sadr mosque in Kufa before hundreds of worshipers, “This aggression is a serious precedent in the new Iraq and for the state which has thrown itself in the arms of the occupation.” He maintained that the US and the caretaker Iraqi government “are trying to finish off this movement.” He added, “The pressures on us are great after the signing of the agreement,” Regheef said. “We will be back if the leader orders us to … We will rise up when we’re ordered to.”

More hostages were taken on Friday in what has become an all too familiar tactic on the part of the guerrillas.

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Of Iron Fists and Oil Sabotage

Marine Killed in Anbar

Guerrillas in Anbar Province killed a Marine on Thursday.

US forces clashed with guerrillas in Samarra, signalling a breakdown of the truce earlier worked out between city elders and US commanders, which would have provided extensive reconstruction aid in return for the city’s acceptance of US patrols. The US forces called in strikes by helicopter gunships on the guerrillas.

Operation Iron Fist 2 against the Mahdi Army in Sadr City continued on Thursday. The US employed tanks, helicopter gunships, and aerial bombardment by warplane in its assault on the militia (except that these are blunt instruments, which must inevitably harm civilians in the teeming East Baghdad slum). The fighting left one Iraqi dead and 12 wounded, many of them children.

Earlier on Thursday, guerrillas in Sadr City detonated a roadside bomb, wounding 3 US troops.

The guerrillas’ attempt to sabotage Iraq’s oil economy continued on Thursday. The Detroit Free Press notes,

“Oil official killed: Gunmen killed a senior official of Iraq’s North Oil Co. in the northeastern city of Mosul on Thursday, less than two weeks after his boss escaped an assassination attempt. Also, saboteurs attacked an oil well near Baghdad and a pipeline in the south, officials said.

An official with the South Oil Co. said on condition of anonymity that the attack on the pipeline in the city of Najaf will not affect oil exports from the south, Iraq’s main port for oil shipments.”

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Violence, Allawi, Sistani and Elections

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani continues to be concerned as to whether elections will be held in January in Iraq, and whether the outcome will reflect the Shiite majority in Iraq. He is worried that the system adopted, of nation-wide party lists, favors a small set of parties, mainly expatriate. Since the six major parties listed include the two (Sunni) Kurdish parties and the largely Sunni Iraqi National Accord (primarily ex-Baathists) led by Iyad Allawi, as well as the mixed Iraqi National Congress, I think Sistani is afraid that the al-Da`wa and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq–the two main Shiite parties– could end up with a minority in parliament.

Both Bush and Allawi affirmed on Thursday that elections would be held as promised. Donald Rumsfeld, whose uncontrollable mouth is sometimes useful insofar as he lets the truth slip, said that elections might not be possible in all the provinces. Allawi minimized the violence, saying that it was confined to 3 of Iraq’s 18 provinces. This assertion is simply untrue, and is anyway misleading because Baghdad is one of the three Allawi had in mind! Could an election that excluded the capital, with at least 5 million inhabitants, be considered valid? Denis D. Gray of AP notes:

“However, at least six provinces – Baghdad, Anbar, Diyala, Salahuddin, Kirkuk and Nineveh – have been the scene of significant attacks on U.S. troops and Iraqi authorities in the past month. The only areas not plagued by bloodshed are the three northern provinces controlled by Kurds. The situation in many areas, however, is unknown since journalists’ travel is restricted by security fears.”

(Why is it that only print journalists, and increasingly not television ones, challenge such disinformation from politicians any more?)

The situation is even worse than Gray allows. As recently as August, the British expended 100,000 rounds of ammunition in Maysan province at Amara, saying they had the most intense fighting since the Korean War! Likewise there was heavy fighting in Wasit (Kut) and Najaf. In the map below I made the present security-challenged provinces red, and those that saw recent heavy fighting purple. I ask you if this looks like the problems are in “3 of 18 provinces,” or whether it looks to you like elections held only in the white areas (as Donald Rumsfeld seems to envision) would produce a legitimate government:

The Allawi/ Rumsfeld logic, moreover, presumes that the guerrilla resistance is only able to disrupt the elections in the Sunni Arab provinces. But they have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to strike all over the country. If a long line of prospective voters were standing in Nasiriyah in the south, do you seriously think the guerrillas couldn’t manage to direct some rocket-propelled grenade fire at them? Set off a car bomb?

The real reason for the current plan to raze Fallujah in November or December is the hope that doing so will dramatically reduce the operational capability of the guerrillas, forestalling the Nasiriyah scenario I just mentioned. I don’t think that the guerrillas are so geographically limited or concentrated, however, and very much doubt that this Carthaginian strategy in al-Anbar will work.

Moreover, not having elections in al-Anbar and West Baghdad would be a disaster. The red areas are where the Sunni Arab former ruling minority is situated. They are the backbone of the guerrilla war. If they feel unrepresented by the new government, what incentive do they have to cease their warfare?

On the other hand, if the elections are not held or if their results are widely considered illegitimate, there is a danger that that result will radicalize Sistani and cause him to bring the masses into the street.

Odysseus had to steer between the two monsters of Scylla and Charybdis. So to does the US in Iraq.

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Iraq Violence Kills at Least 24, Wounds over 100

Sistani Criticizes Election Plans

The guerrilla war and American military assertiveness together wrought havoc in several areas of Iraq once again on Wednesday.

Baghdad

In downtown Baghdad, guerrillas used a car bomb to strike at persons in a retail district who were waiting to sign up for service in the Iraqi National Guard. The huge explosion killed 6 individuals and wounded 54.

There were also clashes at Haifa Street, a stronghold of the Iraqi branch of the radical Monotheism and Holy War movement. The number of resulting casualties is unknown as I write.

A US strike on Abu Ghurab west of Baghdad a week ago may have killed a leader of Monotheism and Holy War, Abu Anas al-Shami, a Jordanian Muslim radical and author.

Sadr City

In east Baghdad, according to Naim al-Qaabi, spokesman for the Sadr movement, a US push into that part of the capital resulted in clashes that left 15 dead and 52 wounded.

Samarra

Some 40 guerrillas fought US forces near Samarra on Wednesday. The US forces called in an air strike on a house, killing 2 Iraqis and wounding 2. Although a supposed ceasefire had recently been called by city leaders of Samarra, allowing US troops back into the city, it seems clear that Samarran guerrillas are still operating in the area and that the situation remains dicey.

Tikrit

Guerrillas used a roadside bomb to attack US troops near Tikrit, killing 1 US soldier.

Nasiriyah

Three American crew members of a Black Hawk helicopter were wounded when it crashed soon after take-off on Wednesday near Nasiriyah. The cause of the crash was not announced, but US helicopters frequently take rocket-propelled grenade fire in Iraq.

Najaf

On Monday and Tuesday, US Marines and Iraqi national guards raided offices of the Muqtada al-Sadr movement near the shrine of Ali, arresting several officials close to the radical young cleric. The American-appointed governor, Adnan al-Zurfi, maintained that they had found weapons caches in the sweep.

The action appears to contravene the terms of the cease-fire earlier reached with the Sadrists, and the raid was condemned by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Sistani deeply dislikes the Mahdi Army, but he no doubt feels that if the various parties cannot trust that a settlement under his auspices can be trusted, it will weaken his authority to help settle future disputes.

Dexter Filkins of the New York Times reports that Sistani is increasingly worried about the form of the elections scheduled for January. The current plan to have nation-wide pre-selected party lists will unfairly favor the expatriate political parties, he fears, and he is threatening to withdraw his support from the process.

I personally would be shocked and amazed if elections are actually held in January. If they are, it would not be surprising if the expatriate parties managed to set things up so as to dominate them. They are the ones who have been organizing abroad for the past twenty years and have experience in politicking. But if a lot of local Iraqis feel disenfranchised by the results, then the elections won’t produce a stable government. Moreover, Sistani’s approval would be key to such a government’s hopes for success.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is burning up money and ammunition so fast in Iraq that it has prematurely had to dip into a $25 billion emergency fund: “If the additional money were not available this month, armed services either would have to cut other programs to shift money to the war or face the prospect of new troops going to battle without sufficient body armor, armored Humvees and other protective gear.” The war is costing about $1 billion a week.

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