Informed Comment

The Victory of Hamas and the Miseries of Bush’s Policies

My article about the victory of Hamas in the Palestinian elections is out at Salon.com.

Excerpt:

‘ Hamas, or the Islamic Resistance Movement, a branch of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, has come to power in Palestine. In his press conference on Thursday, Bush portrayed the Palestinian elections in the same way he depicts Republican Party victories over Democrats in the United States: “The people are demanding honest government. The people want services. They want to be able to raise their children in an environment in which they can get a decent education and they can find healthcare.” He sounds like a spokesman for Hamas, underlining the irony that Bush and his party have given Americans the least honest government in a generation, have drastically cut services, and have actively opposed extension of healthcare to the uninsured in the United States.

But the president’s attempt to dismiss the old ruling Fatah Party as corrupt and inefficient, however true, is also a way of taking the spotlight off his own responsibility for the stagnation in Palestine. Bush allowed then Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to sideline the ruling Fatah Party of Yasser Arafat, to fire missiles at its police stations, and to reduce its leader to a besieged nonentity. Sharon arrogantly ordered the murder of civilian Hamas leaders in Gaza, making them martyrs. Meanwhile, Israeli settlements continued to grow, the fatally flawed Oslo agreements delivered nothing to the Palestinians, and Bush and Sharon ignored new peace plans — whether the so-called Geneva accord put forward by Palestinian and Israeli moderates or the Saudi peace plan — that could have resolved the underlying issues. The Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, which should have been a big step forward for peace, was marred by the refusal of the Israelis to cooperate with the Palestinians in ensuring that it did not produce a power vacuum and further insecurity. ‘

The rest is here at Salon.com

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Minister of Industry Almost Killed
US Tilting to Sunni Arabs?

Assassinations in Kirkuk, a near-death of the minister of industry (and actual deaths of his bodyguards), the death of a GI and wounding of another in a roadside bombing, were among the violent incidents in Iraq on Thursday. Guerrillas also attacked a convoy of oil tankers, in their continued quest to starve Baghdad of energy, and they killed two clerics in the capital.

Another important labor union leader has been assassinated.

Iraq the Model: Iraqi journalists face jail time for writing critically about their society. This NYT piece implies that a Kurdish dissident journalist has been released after having been sentenced to 30 years for criticizing Kurdish warlord Massoud Barzani; as I understand it, he is to be retried.

Reuters reports that some Iraqi Shiites and other observers believe that the Bush administration is shifting away from its earlier alliance with the Iraqi Shiites, preferring the Iraqi Sunni Arabs. The rationale is said to be a dawning realization in Washington that the Iraqi Shiites would not react positively to a US attack on Iran. Given the increasing focus on Iran’s nuclear energy program by Bush, his allies in the Iraqi South are becoming increasing liabilities, given their own warm relations with Tehran.

Al-Hayat [Ar.] reports that the military adviser to Jalal Talabani reported that there had been contacts with the Iraqi guerrillas for the purpose of increasing Iraqi security in all regions of Iraq. The newspaper alleged that Iraqi clans of Anbar Province for the second day continued a campaign against foreign fighters styling themselves al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia, capturing 270 of them. The clans around Ramadi are also said to have helped the Iraqi army capture 200 “terrorists.” (See Gilbert Achcar’s translation from yesterday, below). The article says that the clan leaders have also been talking to Sunni clerics, preparing the way for talks between the Iraqi government, the US led coalition, and guerrilla leaders as early as next week.

[Cole: I think Talabani's office is vastly exaggerating these developments, and don't trust al-Hayat's editorial line on these alleged conflicts within the guerrilla movement. Their articles on it read to me as though they are attempting to convince themselves, and perhaps the guerrillas, of this story. On the other hand, the story that the US military will meet next week with guerrilla leaders is entirely plausible. Such contacts are not new, and the question is whether they will produce anything of value.]

Gen. Casey has admitted that the US army is stretched in Iraq.

Further pipeline sabotage and bad weather at Basra will keep Iraqi exports to only about 1 million barrels a day for at least the next month.

A new report says that the US will not be able to use the $18 bn voted by Congress to complete water, sanitation and electricy projects related to rebuilding Iraq. Reuters says, “Only 49 of 136 planned water- and sanitation-related projects will be completed and only about 300 of 425 planned electricity-related projects.” The article blames Saddam for having run down Iraq but does not mention the role of stringent US-backed international sanctions in degrading Iraqi society in the 1990s.

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Split in Sunni Guerrilla Movement

Gilbert Achcar kindly shares this translation of an article from al-Hayat on splits in the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement.

‘ The AMS: We Are Now Waging Two Battles: Against ‘the Occupation’ and Against ‘the Terrorists’

Sunni Clans Take the Initiative of Launching a Campaign to Expel Zarqawi’s Followers and ‘Foreigners and Intruders’

From Al-Hayat Newspaper, London; January 26, 2006

Baghdad-London — There are still more consequences to the wave of assassinations targeting Sunni political and religious figures participating in the political process, and the killing of 42 police recruits in Ramadi by extremist Islamist followers of Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of “al-Qaeda’s Organization in the Land of the Two Rivers.” A new escalation took the form of additional Arab Sunni tribal clans joining the campaign aimed at liquidating this organization.

The “Popular Clan Committees” launched a large campaign chasing Zarqawi’s group in Ramadi “in order to expel them to Syria beyond Iraqi borders.” Sheikh Osama al-Jedaan, the head of the al-Karabila clan in Qa’im, on the Syrian border, said that the “Clan Committees” have started a military campaign against the “terrorists,” asserting that security formations composed of Ramadi inhabitants are searching for people wanted by the Iraqi government and by their own “government.” He emphasized that this operation aims at expelling from Iraqi borders “foreigners and intruders” coming from other states of the region. Six armed groups belonging to “the Iraqi resistance” recently declared war on Zarqawi’s “terrorist” organization.

A Sunni religious figure from the province of al-Anbar told Al-Hayat that the groups that destroyed the Sunni provinces belong to the “terrorists and takfiris” [a label attached to the most fanatical Islamic fundamentalists]. He added that the best measure to be taken in order to stabilize the situation is that the inhabitants of the province (the clans) expel these groups. He expressed his regret that some Sunni families gave refuge to “the terrorist elements” although they constitute no more than 50 per cent [certainly a typographic error for a much lesser percentage] of the armed men, attributing this to several reasons among which are “wrong understanding, material need, fear from them, or the desire to take revenge on foreign troops.” He asserted that this support and the silence kept with regard to terrorist groups have ended after Sunni families suffered from “the assassinations targeting Sunni figures and the killing of police recruits, the responsibility of which was claimed by al-Qaeda’s organization.” He said that the resistance fractions acting within the “popular committees” to cleanse Ramadi have ceased their operations against US troops (a truce), but that this does not mean that they trust the Americans or disregard the necessity that they get out of Iraq.

This Sunni sheikh asserted that the mediation of the Ramadi notables between the resistance and US troops “have succeeded in convincing the resistance elements of the necessity of expelling the terrorists, and anyone who excommunicates [takfir] a Muslim Iraqi and kills Shias on the basis of their religious identity, but they did not succeed in increasing their confidence in US authorities.”

One of the sheikhs of the Sunni al-Dulaim clan in Ramadi said that the city inhabitants have started to understand the true nature of the armed groups that kill in the name of religion and resistance. He told Al-Hayat that many Ramadi inhabitants have given material and logistical support to the Arab fighters, but understand nowadays the goal of these armed groups, which is to sow the seeds of “a sectarian conflict by killing Shias on the basis of their religious identity and excommunicating the people working in the police or in the government in general.”

Moreover, a member of the al-Bubaz Sunni clan, the largest clan in Samarra, stated that his city was quiet and had gotten rid of the terrorists by the action of its seven major clans (Bu-Nisan, Bu-Abbas, Bu-Badr, and others), adding that “the inhabitants of Samarra are ready to support the clan committee in Ramadi, and that they stand by waiting for any sign in order to join them in fighting the terrorists.”

In the same context, Issam al-Rawi, a member of the Association of Muslim Scholars, said that Arab Sunnis are now waging two battles, one against government apparatuses and the other against “terrorist gangs.” Al-Rawi added that the AMS praises the efforts of the inhabitants of Ramadi to oppose terrorism, especially Zarqawi who “once excommunicates the Shias and their religious authorities, and another time excommunicates the Sunnis and the AMS, allowing Iraqi blood to be spilled.” He explained that the AMS believes in resistance, but calls the terrorists to stop attacking Iraqis.

In the same way, a leader of the “Brigades of the 1920 Revolution” in al-Anbar told Al-Hayat that most “fractions of the patriotic Iraqi resistance” disapprove the way Zarqawi’s organization deals with Iraqi civilians as well as his overdoing in targeting the police and army “in all regions of Iraq.” [This last precision put between quote marks by the reporter hints at the very unfortunate sectarian twist -- now corrected apparently -- of many Iraqi armed groups who supported bloody attacks against gatherings of Iraqi police and army recruits as long as they were in Shia areas and changed their mind when the same turned to Sunni areas as happened recently in Ramadi.]

He said that “these fractions ["of the patriotic Iraqi resistance"] have called to concentrate the resistance efforts on targeting ‘occupation’ soldiers, instead of wasting time and effort in confrontations with the army, police and national guard, while occupation soldiers are thus enabled to recover.” This does not mean that “Iraqi army and police will be immune from our attacks in case they targeted the ‘mujahideen’ or treated people badly or assaulted them.”

He added that “the mujahideen have resorted to a new kind of operation reducing the risk for civilians, such as putting explosive charges on roads outside the cities and practicing sniping inside the cities.” He also said that “the rift between the patriotic resistance and the extremists has worsened progressively, but that “the last straw was the extremists’ attack on police recruits in Ramadi, at a time when most resistance fractions in al-Anbar had met and agreed unanimously on not hurting them as there is a need for police, especially in the city of Ramadi.”

Published in Al-Hayat, Jan. 26, 2006, translated by Gilbert Achcar. ‘

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Pipeline Blasted Again
Sunnis want Federalism postponed until 2009

Guerrillas blew up pipelines again on Wednesday, halting Iraqi petroleum exports through Turkey. There were some other bombings and shootings. Interior Ministry police commandos (usually Shiites) killed a Sunni cleric in Samarra. This looks bad.

A new report says that the Iraq quagmire is causing the US Army to reach the breaking point. The report notes that the army now appears to be meeting its recruiting goals by admitting high school dropouts. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, the worst SecDef in the history of the country, wants the military to move in the direction of high tech. I’d say he needs a high school and a university within the army if the dropouts are eventually going to operate that machinery.

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said that Arab peace keeping forces for Iraq would require that 1) a sovereign, Iraq, national-unity government ask for them and 2) that US troops withdraw. He said that Arab troops would decline to serve under a US command. An Arab peace keeping force, led by Syria, was deployed in Lebanon during the civil war there.

Iraq needs $60 billion to revive its industries, according to the Iraqi government.

Paul McLeary reports from Baghdad, ‘ These days, more American reporters are leaving Iraq than arriving. In large part, for the U.S. press, “The party’s pretty much over.” ‘ (A tip of the hat to CBS’s Public Eye.

A Kurdish writer sentenced to 30 years in prison for “defaming Kurdistan” (a.k.a. warlord Massoud Barzani) will be retried. In civilized countries, journalists are not tried for criticizing governments.

Iraqi journalists constantly face threats, either from guerrillas or from supporters of government officials, for writing critically about either. Reuters reveals that there really is not any freedom of the press in Iraq, and nor could there be given the poor security situation and the unconventional civil war.

Ghali Hassan argues that the US military is another impediment to a free press in Iraq.

Al-Zaman /AFP report [Ar.] that Sunni Arab politicians renewed their opposition to loose federalism and regional confederacies when they met Wednesday with Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the Shiite cleric who leads the largest bloc in parliament. Salih Mutlak of the National Dialogue Council (11 seats) told Agence France Presse that the delegates insisted that loose federalism be abandoned before they would enter the new government. He said that this matter could be taken up by the next parliament, to be elected in 2009.

On another front, Virtue Party leader Nadim al-Jabiri said that the United Iraqi Alliance had broken pledges it had made to coalition partners about the distribution of compensatory seats. Virtue was given only one of these seats, whereas it had joined the United Iraqi Alliance on the promise that it would be given 15 regular seats and 5 compensatory ones. He said that most of the compensatory seats went to the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the Badr organization, while a few went to the Sadrist movement. He said that when he complained, the UIA leadership denied they had pledged him 5 compensatory seats.

Researcher Reidar Vissar analyzes the affiliation of the members of the United Iraqi Alliance. He concludes that they broke down as follows before the compensatory seats are figured in:

Sadrists (Muqtada): 23%
Da`wa: 23%
Independents: 22%
Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and Badr: 19%
Virtue Party: 13%

Another 19 seats had yet to be apportioned when Vissar made this chart. Jabiri, above, is claiming that most of the 19 went to SCIRI. My own suspicion is that SCIRI and Badr are also much richer than the other factions inside the UIA, in part because of likely Iranian support. Still, an alliance of Sadrists and the Da`wa Party could form a powerful challenge to SCIRI leadership.

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Achcar on Basra & British

Gilbert Achcar kindly writes:

‘ Dear Friends,

I searched a couple of British newspapers today and could not find any mention of the news item reported in today’s Al-Hayat and involving British troops in Basrah.
I decided therefore to translate it for your information.

The behavior of British troops in Southern Iraq, long praised as a model by contrast with the behavior of US troops, is proving as bad from the point of view of colonial-like arrogance.

Juan Cole reported the arrest on “Informed Comment” quoting an AP dispatch, with the following observation:

“The British military raided Iraqi police offices in Basra and arrested a number of police officers whom they suspected of being double agents for sectarian militias. What the Western press seldom notes is that such police were appointed by the elected governing council of Basra, which is dominated by Shiite religious parties that maintain paramilitaries. Actually, since the elected officials had a right to appoint the police under Iraqi law, whereas there is no legal instrument governing the conduct of British troops in Iraq, it is not clear from where the authority comes for the British to arrest Iraqi police officers.”

The statement of the Governor of Basrah quoted below is clear enough.

Best,
Gilbert

—————–

British Forces Arrest 12 Police Officers in Basrah

The Governorate Council Considers Expelling Them from the City

Basrah- Al-Hayat, 2006-01-25

British forces raided yesterday morning the home of Major Jasim Hasan, the deputy director of the Criminal Intelligence Division in Basrah and arrested him with other members of his family, as well as his four guards.

The staff of the Intelligence Directorate, with the support of the Al-Hallaf clan to which the arrested officer belongs, held a demonstration in front of the Governorate offices, demanding the release of the detainees and the firing of General Hasan Sawadi, the commander of Basrah police force. The demonstrators shouted slogans against British troops, threatening anyone who collaborates with them, and affirming that the demonstrations will go on in front of the Governorate offices until their demands are satisfied.

Parents of detainees belonging to the Sadrist Current and held in the jails of the British troops joined the demonstrators, demanding the release of their sons and threatening the occupation forces of more attacks against them.

Mr Abu-Salam al-Khazaali, a member of the Basrah Governorate Council, said that it is high time to put an end to the behavior of the British, who “assaulted officers of the Police directorate and their families,” adding that “these officers are among the best members of the security services.” … The Governor of Basrah, Muhammad al-Wa’eli, said that the Governorate Council is meeting “to issue important resolutions, including a resolution to expulse British troops from the city, and to refuse to deal with British firms and entrepreneurs operating in the Basrah Governorate.” He added that “British troops arrested 12 intelligence officers of the Ministry of Interior in Basrah yesterday morning without informing the administrative authorities.” He condemned “the irresponsible actions of British troops in the city and the arrest of members of the local authorities, without giving them prior notice and informing them about the measures.”… ‘

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7 Troops killed in 2 Days
Sunni Arabs warn of Paralysis

Guerrillas used roadside bombs to kill 7 US and coalition troops in the past two days in separate incidents.

Sunni Arab politicians in Iraq are complaining that the US has set up the new political system so as to favor sectarian outcomes and to produce gridlock.

The British military raided Iraqi police offices in Basra and arrested a number of police officers whom they suspected of being double agents for sectarian militias. What the Western press seldom notes is that such police were appointed by the elected governing council of Basra, which is dominated by Shiite religious parties that maintain paramilitaries. Actually, since the elected officials had a right to appoint the police under Iraqi law, whereas there is no legal instrument governing the conduct of British troops in Iraq, it is not clear from where the authority comes for the British to arrest Iraqi police officers.

The problem with Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad threatening the Shiite religious parties with a withdrawal of support for training Iraqi troops is that a) the threat is not plausible and b) the US training effort can easily be replaced — with that of Iran. The US cannot actually afford to let Iraq go down the drain, and is not going to stop training the new Iraqi military, even if the Shiites do insist on retaining the Ministery of the Interior (which they will).

The NYT reports on the massive fraud and misuse by US government personnel of funds supposedly dedicated to rebuilding in Iraq. What with the charges against DeLay and the “Abramoff and his 30 Republicans” scandal, the Republican Party kleptocracy appears to have practiced its graft on both sides of the Atlantic. Alas, when you steal from Americans, they just have less money for their families and they’ll gladly vote you back in. When you steal from Iraqi reconstruction, you get thousands of Iraqis killed.

Iraq’s ministry of labor announced Tuesday that 20 percent of Iraqis live in dire poverty. In addition, some 171,000 families live on $30 a month.

[Ar.] Sources in the Sadr Movement announced Tuesday that US forces had released from their prison Shaikh Abd al-Jawad al-Isawi, a Sadrist leader of Kut, after having held him for more than a year. Muqtada al-Sadr, the young Shiite nationalist leader, heads a substantial bloc in the new parliament. Several other Sadrist leaders of Kut are still in US custody.

Iraqi petroleum production fell to only 1.5 million barrels a day in the last quarter of 2005, only about half what it was in the last years of Saddam Hussein. There is no prospect of earlier improvement, the experts say.

A small demonstration was mounted Tuesday in Samarra to protest the targeting by guerrilla fighters in the city of local young men who sought to be recruited by the police.

Patrick Boylan condemns the wanton destruction of Iraq’s cultural heritage at the hands of the United States in 2003 and after. He points out that during the Gulf War and its aftermath, the US was careful on this issue, but that some sort of deliberate decision appears to have been taken to disregard it this time. Why the difference? Let me just whisper two words to Professor Boylan: “Donald Rumsfeld.” Or just one word: “Philistine.” Oops, now I’ve gone and been redundant.

Current History has a special issue out on Iraq. I have a piece about the Shiite crescent.

Dilip Hiro looks at the victory of Muslim fundamentalist parties in the various elections recently held in the Middle East.

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Rafsanjani Warns against US Policy in Iraq
Muqtada Demands Islamic Rule

Former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said Monday as he met with young Iraqi Shiite nationalist, Muqtada al-Sadr, that the US sought to divide and rule in Iraq. Iran Focus says, ‘ “The goals of the occupiers are in contradiction to the wishes of the Iraqi people. By influencing the political events in that country they will try to force their imperialist goals on the future government”, Rafsanjani said, adding that Iraqi groups had a responsibility to work together to thwart the U.S.’s aims.’

It reports of Muqtada, ‘ He went on to say that the U.S.-led forces in Iraq were attempting to decrease the influence of religion in Iraqi society. “The Iraqi people want a country run under Islamic rule”, Sadr said. ‘

Bombings and a sectarian kidnapping of two dozen Sunni Arabs in north Baghdad, along with the deaths of 4 GIs, marked events on Monday in Iraq. A head of the Sunni pious endowments board was assassinated.

Under Iraqi law, the new parliament must meet to choose a president within 15 days of the certification of the election results, e.g. around Feb. 18. The parliamentarians are, however, putting aside this provision of the law and are making no promises as to when they will be able to form a government.

Iraqi guerrilla groups attacked US and other targets 34,000 times in 2005, up 30% from the year before. The number of roadside bombs deployed nearly doubled to over 10,000, and the number of casualties was up. Any way you measure it, these statistics indicate that the US has failed miserably in counter-insurgency efforts in Iraq.

Iraqi professionals are fleeing the country, which makes the prospect of rebuilding even dimmer.

A preliminary inspector general report on the US reconstruction effort in Iraq finds it plagued by poor planning and poor implementation, according to the NYT.

US contractors are pulling out of Iraq, as the funds for reconstruction dry up.

Iraq is paying Turkish firms $1 billion in arrears for fuel. They had ceased supplying it in protest against the Iraqi failure to pay. In other news, two Turkish banks are planning to open branches in Iraqi Kurdistan.

These recent photos from Iraq, several of them disturbing (be forewarned), are on the web but never picked up by major newspapers or television in the US.

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