Informed Comment

Over 1300 Dead in Sectarian Violence
Mortar Strike on Sunni Mosque Kills 4
Violence Subsides

Ellen Knickmeyer and Bassam Sebti of the WaPo reports that since last Wednesday rioters and militiamen have killed over 1300 Iraqis on a sectarian basis. They add,

‘ Hundreds of unclaimed dead lay at the morgue at midday Monday — blood-caked men who had been shot, knifed, garroted or apparently suffocated by the plastic bags still over their heads. Many of the bodies were sprawled with their hands still bound — and many of them had wound up at the morgue after what their families said was their abduction by the Mahdi Army, the Shiite militia of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. ‘

The pace of killing slowed on Monday despite the end of the curfew, but there was still some violence.

Reuters reports that on Monday in Iraq, guerrillas fired a mortar shell on Shola, a Shiite district in West Baghdad, killing 4 and wounding 17.

In Nahravan, police commandos from the Interior Ministry fought a battle with Sunni Arab guerrillas. The guerrillas killed 8 police and wounded 6. The police killed 6 guerrillas and said they captured 25.

In the Shiite holy city of Karbala, Iraqi police captured three men planting bombs near the shrine of al-Hurr al-Riyahi.

Robert Worth of the NYT reports, “South of the capital, in Mahmudiya, nine bodies were found blindfolded and shot in the head, police officials said. Four more bodies were found to the north, in Baquba.”

The Iraqi Army deployed a few of its 77 tanks in northern Baghdad.

The LA Times reports that the recent violence in Iraq has provoked a debate in the Pentagon about planned troop draw-downs in Iraq. Some officers think it is crazy to reduce the number now. Others believe that the Iraqis will never step up to the plate as long as they can call in US soldiers. The article quotes Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute (Likud Branch), who is a civilian chickenhawk even though he is young enough so that he could have joined the military and served in Iraq, as saying that it is not the right time to bring home the troops.

Someone should explain to me why last week’s events are an argument for keeping US troops in Iraq. What did they do? Did we hear about any US military units guarding Sunni mosques as they were being attacked by Shiite mobs? The LA Times reports on how US troops were caught between two sides in the rioting, and because they could not enter mosques, were often not able to investigate violent attacks against them.

Al-Zaman/ AFP report that [Ar.] hundreds of Iraqis from both the Sunni and Shiite branches of Islam prayed in unison at the Grand Mosque of Tikrit, responding to a call by clergymen. Worshippers streamed to the service from all over Salahuddin Province, including the cities of Baiji, Samarra, Blad, Dujail and Sharqat. Representatives of the Sadr Movement attended, as did those of the Association of Muslim Scholars.

The governor of Salahuddin hailed the joint service as a moment of national unity, and blamed the destruction of the golden-domed Askariyah Shrine in Samarra last Wednesday on “outside forces.”

Sadrist cleric Shaikh Muhammad Taqi pledged that this service was just the beginning of many coming such joint worship sessions. He complained, “It is wrong for us to say, this one is a Sunni and that one is a Shiite. We are all Muslims and we are all children of this nation.”

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Violence Kills 29 Despite Curfew in Iraq
British Embassy in Tehran Torched

Despite the daytime curfew, violence killed 29 in Iraq on Sunday and wounded dozens. A series of eight mortar shells slammed into Shiite neighborhoods, killing 16 persons and wounding some 45. Many women and children were among the victims. There was other violence in Baghdad, as well as in Baqubah, Hillah, Basra and elsewhere, prompting former British envoy in Iraq to characterize the country as already in a state of low-level civil war. Iraqi officials have nevertheless lifted the curfew for Monday, in part because food stocks in stores are running low and there is danger of widespread hunger if people are not allowed to restock and shop.

Angry Iranians threw Molotov cocktails at the British embassy in Tehran on Sunday. Over 1,000 students maintained that Coalition forces in Iraq were responsible for the bombing last Wednesday of the Askariyah Shrine in Samarra.

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Afghanistan Prison Riot
25000 Protest in Pakistan

The Bush administration cannot even control the al-Qaeda operatives it has in prison! Much less the many walking around free because Bush wasted our resources on an Iraq War instead of polishing off al-Qaeda.

Meanwhile, the furor over the Danish caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad has not died down. Some 25,000 pretested in Karachi on Sunday.

Many Muslims are convinced that the caricatures of the Prophet and the attack on the Askariyah Shrine in Samarra were both US plots against Islam.

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Muqtada calls for Sunni-Shiite Marches, Prayers
Wants Pan-Islamic Resolution for US Withdrawal

Al-Zaman / AFP report that [Ar.] young Shiite nationalist leader Muqtada al-Sadr, having arrived at Basra on Sunday from Iran, called for a joint peaceful demonstration involving both Shiites and Sunnis that demands the departure of US, British and other foreign troops from Iraq and calls for concord between Sunnis and Shiites.

Muqtada once again blamed the United States for the destruction of the Askariyah Shrine at Samarra.

Sadr said before a big crowd of his supporters in the southern Gulf port, “I call for a united, peaceful demonstration in the capital, Baghdad, which you will organize at a specific time, involving Shiites, Sunnis and others, in which you will demand the withdrawal of the Occupying forces, and call for mutual love among you.” He made an attempt to rein in the Mahdi Army militias [plural in the original Arabic report], whom Sunnis accuse of burning Sunni mosques in Baghdad after the Samarra attack.

Muqtada said, “The leaders of Friday prayers throughout Iraq, from the north to the south and from east to west, must call for this peaceful demonstration among all sections of the Iraqi population, who much not be divided as to battle cry. The Iraqi people is one, from north to south.”

Muqtada also called for holding “joint Friday communal prayers with both Sunnis and Shiites in the mosques,” affirming that “there are no Sunni or Shiite mosques; you are a single people.” He added, “We want the Occupation forces out, even if on their own timetable, in an objective fashion, as they say.” He said, “Our Iraq is passing through a big crisis, insofar as enemies are entering among brethren, and spreading turmoil among you.”

Muqtada wondered aloud, “Do you want to give aid to the enemy? Do you want to render the Occupier victorious? Do you wish to make Satan triumphant, or do you wish to help the Truth?” He added, “If you burn down mosques, are you helping falsehood or the truth? Do you wish to help falsehood?” He shouted, “No, no to falsehood!”

Al-Sadr said, “Do not forget the plotting of the Occupation, for if we forget its plots, it will kill us all without exception.” He went on, “Sometimes they curse the Messenger of God [Muhammad] and defame him [with their cartoons], and sometimes they blow up our Imams. This series of attacks is not the first and it will not be the last. The attacks will continue. Beware, and be responsible. Religion is your responsibility, mosques are your responsibility, the Muslim people is your responsibility, so do not attack the secure houses of God. Love one another and be brethren of one another so that our Iraq will be secure and stable and independent. We want the expulsion of the Occupier and not the American ambassador.”

A spokesman for Sadr in Najaf, Sahib al-`Ameeri, said that Muqtada’s primary mission is to restore order so as to preserve the unity of the Muslims and to protect their holy places.

Another Sadr spokesman, Aws al-Khafaji, said that he had decided to appoint a committee to oversee his supporters. He forbade the Mahdi Army from wearing black, the symbol of their sectarian commitment to the messianic Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, whom many of them expect to return momentarily. (The Askariyah Shrine in Samarra, blown up last Wednesday, is associated with the Twelfth Imam and his father and grandfather.)

Some Sunni Arabs were not mollified. A spokesman for the (fundamentalist) Iraqi Accord Front, Abdul Salam al-Zawbai, said that what had happened was a shock, since no one had believed that elements of the [Shiite] Mahdi Army [of Muqtada al-Sadr] were capable of committing such deeds. He stressed that no one can at the same time participate in the political process and at the same time carry a weapon and possess a militia. This contradicts the first principles of democracy and the rule of law. He said that Muqtada al-Sadr now has an obligation to conduct himself like the other parties and become a power within the government. He called on al-Sadr to transform his militia into a political organization.

With regard to the issue of the Mahdi Army, Sadr spokesman Sahib al-`Ameeri said that some supporters carried arms as individuals, not as an organized armed militia that has received training. He said those Sadr supporters carried arms to protect their own homes. He added that the “Mahdi Army” represents a school of thought, not a political party. It tries to spread the ideas of Muqtada al-Sadr. He denied that it held regular meetings, rather said it held occasional gatherings.

On Sunday, Al-Sharq al-Awsat/ AFP reported that representatives of Muqtada met with the Sunni hardliners of the Association of Muslim Scholars in the Abu Hanifa mosque in Adhamiyah, north Baghdad. Representing Muqtada was Shaikh Fadil al-Shara along with other Sadrist leaders. AMS was represented by Shaikh Abdul Salam al-Kubaisi and others. The two sides decided on a number of points aimed at calming the situation in the aftermath of Sunni-Shiite riots. They condemned all attacks on mosques such as might lead to civil war.

In Cairo, the Grand Shaikh of al-Azhar, Muhammad Sayyid al-Tantawi, offered to go to Iraq to mediate the dispute between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites. He called on them to stand united against the conspiracies against them.

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More Shrines Destroyed, 60 Killed
Sistani forms Militia

KarbalaNews.net reports that [Ar.] guerrillas blew up a Shiite shrine in Bashir, south of Tuz Khurmato. This Turkmen region near Kirkuk is largely Shiite. It was not clear how much damage was done to the shrine. The people of the region formed units to guard the shrines and places of worship from any further destruction.

The same source says that [Ar.] Iraqi officers announced that 20 guerrillas attacked the shrine of Salman the Persian. They killed the guards and placed explosives at the tomb, then blew it up, destroying it.

US military sources have later denied that the shrine was destroyed, though they said it did take rocket fire. The rocket was a dud, and did no damage, they say.

Salman al-Farisi was a companion of the Prophet Muhammad who advised the early Muslims on military tactics, and is said to have introduced the technique of digging a trench to trip charging enemy cavalry. Because he was from Iran, and because the Iranians largely became Shiites after 1500, Salman is especially beloved by Shiites. The desecration took place 24 hours after 48 Shiites were killed in the same region. They had been on their way to a peaceful demonstration against Wednesday’s destruction of the Askariyah Shrine at Samarra.

Guerrillas also set off a bomb in the Shiite shrine city of Karbala, killing 8 and wounding 31.

In response to these further attacks on Islamic and Shiite shrines, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called for the establishment of tribal levies to protect tsuch holy sites. He received a delegation of tribesmen from Kufa. Most of the rural clans of the Middle Euphrates are devoted to Sistani and woul be willing to provide such a militia. This proliferation of militias is however extremely worrisome.

In some of the best reporting on the role of the Shiite clerics in this crisis, Robert Worth and Ed Wong of the NYT reveal that the Americans in Iraq initially were powerless when the crisis broke out on Wednesday, and could only hope that the Shiite clerics would calm people down. They only gradually realized that the clerics were equally capable of stirring people up, and that the clerics themselves were under enormous pressure from enraged followers to do something.

This last point is why it is so dangerous for Sistani to form his tribal levies into a militia. He will be hostage in some ways to their enthusiasms.

The Iraqi army and American forces have stopped hundreds of pilgrims who had been in Karbala from heading north to Samarra.

NPR reported eyewitness accounts, corroborated by other reports, that the Mahdi Army took over several Sunni mosques in Baghdad and hung black banners from them. These banners signify the Twelfth Imam, who is associated with the tomb destroyed at Samarra. That is, the Mahdi Army took over Sunni mosques and rededicated them to the messiah of the Shiite branch of Islam, which is highly provocative.

Young Shiite nationalist Muqtada al-Sadr reached an agreement with a hard line Sunni organization to work to tamp down the communal violence.

Al-Hayat [Ar.] says that Bush called the major Iraqi politicians on Sunday to encourage them to go back to working on the government of national unity. He appears to have convinced the Sunni Arab leaders to come back to the bargaining table.

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Violence in Baghdad, Samarra
Curfew Partially Observed

There was more violence on Friday in Iraq amid calls by clerical leaders for peace. The daytime curfew called for earlier was widely ignored, especially in East Baghdad or Sadr City, where the Mahdi Army militiamen were out in force, driving around in heavy vehicles.

*Samarra:
Borzou Daragahi of the LA Times reports,

‘ violence broke out in Samarra, home of the destroyed Shiite shrine. Two police officers were killed and two civilians injured in clashes and a vital oil pipeline set ablaze by saboteurs. ‘

*Baghdad:

Daragahi adds, ‘Iraqi police today found at least 29 bodies scattered in Baghdad. Each corpse was handcuffed and had single gunshots to the head, in the style often attributed to Shiite death squads believed attached to the Ministry of Interior. ‘

Ed Wong of the NYT reports on the role of the militias in the recent violence in Iraq. The Shiites will certainly now insist on keeping them, after the bombing of the Askariyah shrine, but the Sunni Arabs fear them and are threatening to form their own.

Al-Zaman says that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called for calm on Friday, as did his Sunni Arab counterparts.

The daytime curfew called for Baghdad and some heavily Sunni Arab provinces was only partially effective. There were clashes in several districts of Baghdad, including Al-Sayyidiyah and al-Durah, but no details were forthcoming. Some clashes were said to be between Mahdi Army militiamen and Sunni Arab guerrillas.

Tariq al-Hashimi of the Iraqi Islamic Party said the security situation had improved somewhat, but expressed concern about streams of Shiite pilgrims headed from Karbala to Baghdad and then Samarra’.

Ayatollah Muhammad Ya`qubi, the spiritual leader of the Fadhilah Party, forbade his followers from marching to Samarra as they had originally planed. [The same thing is true of Muqtada al-Sadr.]

I gave an interview to Jim Lobe of Interpress Service in which I raised the possibility that there might now be a hung parliament in Iraq, with no group able to form a government, forcing new elections and further political gridlock. The Sunni Arab party, the National Accord Front, has pulled out of negotiations on the formation of a new government.

The daytime curfew in the central Sunni Arab provinces has been extended another day, through Saturday.

AP points to the way in which the Askariyah Shrine crisis points to the great authority and power of the clergy in contemporary Iraq.

NPR reported that on Wednesday and Thursday, many Iraqi policemen and soldiers either stepped aside for Shiite mobs who attacked Sunni mosques, and that some even joined in the attacks.

It just goes to show how inadequate this report for the Pentagon is. It says that 53 battalions can fight with US help, and that none can do so on their own, and that Sunni attacks have not yet produced sectarian violence. In comedy and in politics, timing is everything.

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Suicide Bombing of Saudi Oil Complex Foiled

We all just dodged a bullet. But for how long?

The good news is that the suicide bombing by unidentified radicals against the Saudi oil processing center in largely Shiite Abqaiq (Baqiq) was foiled, though bombs did go off.

Saudi Arabia, dominated by hard line Wahhabi Sunnis, produces about 9.5 million barrels a day of petroleum, and exports over 7 million barrels a day.

Folks, the world only produces about 85 million barrels a day. And most of that is used up by the producers so it isn’t available for export. The US, for instance, produces 5.5 million barrels a day, but it uses about 20 million barrels a day. It uses all of its production and then 3 times that from other countries.

So the Saudi production is 11 percent of the world total, but it is far more than that of the amount of petroleum available for anyone else to buy.

If you took out the facility at Abqaiq, it would be very bad news for world transportation systems.

Iraqi production is already down 38% from pre-War levels. Nigerian production is off 20 percent because of political strife there. There haven’t been any big new strikes, and China and India and others are using more and more.

While it is desirable that the world be weaned off petroleum in favor of renewable energy like solar that do not contribute to global warming, it is also desirable that that process happen gradually. You don’t want the world thrown into a sort of Depression that would reduce research and development monies and effort for green energy.

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