Informed Comment

Iraq War Broke Back of US Counter-Terrorism: Experts

Fresh bombings and assassinations, and the discovery of 18 bodies brought the death toll in Iraq on Thursday to some 34.

A new poll of counter-terrorism and national security experts finds that 84 percent of them believe the US is not winning the war on terror, and they see the Iraq War as the reason why.

‘ One participant in the survey, a former CIA official who described himself as a conservative Republican, said the war in Iraq has provided global terrorist groups with a recruiting bonanza, a valuable training ground and a strategic beachhead at the crossroads of the oil-rich Persian Gulf and Turkey, the traditional land bridge linking the Middle East to Europe. “The war in Iraq broke our back in the war on terror,” said the former official, Michael Scheuer, the author of Imperial Hubris, a popular book highly critical of the Bush administration’s anti-terrorism efforts. “It has made everything more difficult and the threat more existential.” ‘

Let’s list those results of the Iraq War again:

1. Recruiting bonanza for Qutbist terrorists

I.e. it was getting hard to get people to sign up for al-Qaeda-type operations after the Afghanistan War and the disruption of the organization. But what with Abu Ghraib and Fallujah, a lot of red-blooded Muslim young men are so angry that it is much easier to get their blood boiling. Hence Madrid and London.

2. Valuable training ground (and experience fighting the most sophisticated army in the world)

3. strategic beachhead at crossroads of Persian Gulf and Turkey (not so far from Europe and in the vicinity of 2/3s of the world’s proven petroleum reserves).

Scheuer was on the Bin Laden desk at the CIA and knows whereof he speaks. He says the Bush war in Iraq broke our back when it comes to fighting the followers of Sayyid Qutb and Abd al-Salam Farag.

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point has a new translation of a key al-Qaeda text outlining the Qutbists plans for America. The CTC is doing excellent work and should be supported by everyone who cares about the security of our country.

The Supreme Court ruling on Guantanamo addresses the key problem I saw with Bush administration policy toward those it has captured. Many of them are really bad characters, but it only compounds the mistake to deny them basic American rights.

If we go in that direction, we put at risk all that is most distinctive about the United States of America. The Declaration of Independence says, ” We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights . . .” It doesn’t say “some men.”

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Members of Israeli Parliament on the Gaza Operation

The USG Open Document Center translates this report from Israeli news broadcasts in Hebrew:

Israel: Islamic Movement, MKs Comment on Gaza Operation
Israel — OSC Report
Thursday, June 29, 2006 T17:23:50Z

Ro’i Nahmias reports at 1036 GMT on Ynetnews: “The northern branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel aggressively condemned the arrest of HAMAS ministers and parliament members Thursday. ‘The occupation is to blame and Israel carries full responsibility for what is taking place,’ a message by the movement said. The statement said that ‘the arrest of ministers, parliament members, and Palestinian mayors is proof that there is no place for Palestinian sovereignty in the lexicon of the Israeli government. Therefore, it is no wonder that the ‘there-is-no-partner’ melody is heard over and over again.’ Before releasing the statement, the northern branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel announced a day of fasting to identify with ‘our besieged Palestinian people.’” (Tel Aviv Ynetnews WWW-Text in English — centrist news site operated by Yedi’ot Media Group)

Israel radio reports at 1200 GMT: “Meretz chairman Yosi Beilin called on the government to set the earliest possible time to end Operation Summer Rains and to take steps toward achieving a comprehensive cease-fire. The longer it takes, Beilin said, the higher the risk of sinking in the Gazan swamp. He added that their arrest turned HAMAS leaders into heroes of the Palestinian street, despite their failure to run their people’s affairs. His party colleague Zehava Gal’on said the government took up a military operation whose beginning is known but whose outcome isn’t. Neither is it clear how it advances the release of the abducted soldier, she said.

“MK Jamal Zahaliqah of BALAD said that capturing people as bargaining chips is what criminal gangs do, not a state. The Israeli Government is pouring fuel on the fire and deliberately escalating the situation, he added. His party colleague Azmi Bisharah said that Israel is behaving like a terror organization, and that the abduction of elected public officials is an act of terror.

“MK Arye Eldad of the National Union-NRP congratulated the government for showing the first signs of understanding that Israel is at war. His party colleague Uri Ari’el said that the fact that no senior government or army official called on the Asheri family in Itamar as soon as their son Eliyahu was kidnapped is a disgrace bordering on discrimination.” (Jerusalem Voice of Israel Network B in Hebrew — State-funded radio; independent in content)

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Israel Detains Palestinian Ministers
Knocks out Electricity to Half of Gazans

Half of the Palestinians in Gaza, who were already living pretty miserable lives after decades of marginalization and brutalization by the Israelis, were left without electricity yesterday.

Palestinian officials like Saeb Erekat rejected the idea that knocking out electricity for hundreds of thousands of people is targeting a “terrorist infrastructure.” In fact, destroying electricity generation capability interferes with water purification. Palestinian children will die because of this, from drinking unpurified water. And what crime did Palestinian toddlers commit, to be murdered in this way?

The Israelis escalated the crisis by detaining Hamas government ministers. The likelihood is that the captors of the Israeli soldier are freelancers. This wasn’t something plotted out by the Haniyeh government, which, in fact, recently granted a huge concession on the issue of potentially recognizing Israel.

PM Ismail Haniyeh called for the United Nations Security Council to intervene.

The ministers detained are members of a freely and democratically elected government. I can’t imagine under what legal authority the Israelis have arrested them. But everyone in the Middle East can see exactly what “elections” and “democracy” amount to. Bush’s promises have never seemed so hollow.

Secretary-General of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, called for the US to get involved as an honest broker. Well, I suppose miracles do happen.

I am upset about the renewed crisis in Palestine because it is an emotional issue and will spill over into Sunni Arab Iraq. It is likely that pro-Palestinian Sunni guerrillas will kill some US troops specifically to avenge the people of Gaza. This is one reason I am complaining about the massively disproportional character of the Israeli response. It has the potential of further endangering American lives in the region.

And, it is counter-productive. The Israelis can’t get back their soldier by destroying electricity plants in Gaza. They can’t get more security by depriving Palestinians of security.

PS Jeff Morley at WaPo does a fine piece on the beach bombing background to the current round of violence.

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Bombings in Baghdad, Baquba, Mahaweel
Guerrilla Groups offer Truce if US will Withdraw

Reuters details Iraq’s ongoing civil war violence:

Guerrillas bombed a market in the Shiite quarter of Kadhimiyah, Baghdad, killing one person and wounding 8.

Guerrillas detonated a car bomb near a throng of workers who had gathered to look for work at Baquba, killing 3 and wounding 12.

Also in Baquba, guerrillas set off a bomb at a Shiite mosque, which produced no casualties. But then when policemen came running in tesponse to the first bomb, guerrillas set off a second, seriously injuring the two policemen.

A US military raid that netted a radical Islamist resulted in the death of an innocent civilian, the US military admitted.

In Mahaweel south of the capital, guerrillas detonated a roadside bomb near a police patrol, killing 1 and wounding 3.

In Falluja, guerrillas killed two policemen.

Two US GIs were announced dead, one north of Baghdad and one in al-Anbar province.

Guerrillas in the south near Samawah targeted the Australian troops with a roadside bomb, but missed.

Several Sunni Arab guerrilla groups have offered a ceasefire to the United States if the US will pledge to withdraw all foreign troops within two years.

One problem with this offer is that the goal of the guerrilla groups in their roadside bombings and other violence is . . . to get US and other foreign troops out of the country. In other words, they are seeking to get simply by asking what they have not achieved in 3 years of concerted warfare.

Another problem is that there is no guarantee that when the US presence is completely gone the guerrillas will not try to storm the Green Zone and take over.

The two largest and most important Baathist guerrilla groups (Jaysh Muhammad and Jaysh Islam al-`Iraqi), along with the Salafi Jihadis of the Mujahidin Shura Council, all declined to join in the backchannel negotiations.

Finally, the Bush administration just has no intention of getting out within two years and will blow these groups off.

Relief agencies are overwhelmed and cannot meet the needs of Iraq’s 150,000 recently displaced persons.

Billmon is scathing on the hypocrisy of the Bush administration and the Republicans in congress in branding anyone who talks of troop draw-downs in Iraq as devotees of “cut and run,” while Gen. Casey is clearly trying desperately to figure out plausible ways of drawing down US troops in Iraq.

The USG Open Source Center paraphrases reports from the Iraqi press for June 27:

. . . Tariq al-Sha’b runs on page 2 a 300-word report on the statement issued by a number of Iraqi parties and civil society organizations condemning Al-Mahawil police for raiding the Communist Party’s headquarters. . .

Al-Zaman carries on the front page a 1,100-word report entitled “1,500 Iraqi Dinars for 1 Liter of Gasoline in Black Market; Huge Jump in Commodity Prices and Transportation Costs; Kilometers-Long Lines and 7 Hours Waiting in Front of Gas Stations.” . . .

Al-Zaman carries on page 3 a 200-word report entitled “Maysan Advisory Council Declares General Strike on Wednesday and Thursday in Solidarity with Karbala Advisory Council Chairman.” [The Karbala council chairman, from the Fadila Party, has been arrested for possible complicity in terrorism.] . . .

Al-Sabah carries on page 2 a 320-word report citing a source at the Kurdistan parliament saying that a senior Kurdish delegation will visit Baghdad to urge Iraqi officials to quickly solve the issue of Kirkuk . . .

Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 350-word report citing Al-Sadr Trend member Hazim al-A’raji calling for a national reconciliation inside the parliament. He held parliament members responsible for the blood shed in Iraq. . .

Dar al-Salam carries on the front page a 180-word report citing Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front member Salim al-Juburi saying that the front supports Nuri al-Maliki’s initiative for national reconciliation, but the problem lies in the details. . .

Al-Mashriq carries on the front page a 400-word report citing Adnan al-Dulaymi calling on the Shiite religious and political scholars to open dialogue with their Sunni counterparts. . .

Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 180-word report that a terrorist group has warned Shiite families in Al-Muqdadiyah to leave the city. . .

Al-Zaman carries on page 3 a 750-word report entitled “Baghdad Health Directorate: Campaign To Control Violations in Residential Areas; Baghdad’s families Resort To Breeding Sheep To Overcome Economic Crisis.”

Al-Adalah carries on page 4 a 1,500-word report on the illegal slaughtering of cattle and storing of meat.

Al-Sabah al-Jadid runs on page 4 an 80-word report on the role of unemployment and not enforcing the law in discouraging drug addiction. . .

Al-Sabah carries on page 14 a 120-word report citing director of Al-Sadr Bureau in Al-Diwaniyah saying that the bureau has started a campaign to clean up the governorate.

Al-Sabah carries on page 15 a 1,400-word report citing Karbala’s inhabitants complaining about the fuel crisis in the governorate.

Al-Sabah carries on page 15 a 70-word report citing an official source in Al-Najaf Governorate saying that the governorate has signed a contract with a Bahraini company to construct a sports city at a cost of $42 million. . .

Tariq al-Sha’b carries on the back page a 600-word report entitled “Communist Party Supporters Association in Baghdad Holds Third Conference.” . . .

Al-Da’wah runs on page 7 a 400-word article by Karim al-Najjar criticizing Iraqi newspapers for claiming that 5 million Iraqis issued a petition demanding the government to support Mujahidin-e-Khalq Organization. . .

Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on page 2 a 600-word article by the political editor strongly criticizing Saudi Arabia for supporting terrorism and exporting terrorists to Iraq to kill Shiites. . .

Al-Sabah al-Jadid runs on page 5 a 1,500-word report on the recent demonstration by Babil’s Al-Qasim district’s inhabitants, stating that the major reasons behind the demonstration were corruption and unemployment. . .

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Defending Markos
And the Discourse Revolution

I’ve been doing a lot of traveling recently, some of it abroad, and have barely been able to keep up with Iraq, much less with the blogosphere. I was sorry, as a result to have missed yearly Kos and to have been unable to return Markos Moulitsas’s kindnesses (i.e. favorable comments and links) at that point. The internet community he fostered at Daily Kos has been absolutely central to progressive politics in the US in recent years.

I was therefore so sorry to hear that Martin Peretz at The New Republic, which he occasionally hijacks from its seasoned professional journalists for petty vendettas and cranky editorials underwritten by his wife’s Singer Sewing Machine money has presided over an attempt to smear Markos, as Billmon details. Likewise, Kos was attacked, very unfairly, by David Brooks of the NYT, who comes off sounding like a conspiracy theorist from the McCarthy period.

That this smear campaign involved a forged email published without contacting its putative author at TNR is all the more egregious.

Smear campaigns, underpinned by just making things up about people, are the viruses of blogosphere politics. Memes in cyberspace are easy to get started and hard to knock down. The rich and determined can just buy the destruction of a reputation, and our watered-down libel laws offer no avenue of self-defense to the smeared where the person is a public figure. (The rich and determined can also buy and ruin major formerly liberal magazines like The New Republic).

Like Billmon, even after looking into it a bit, I can’t figure out what wrong Markos is actually alleged to have committed. It is falling down funny to imagine that anyone “controls” bloggers, especially progessive bloggers. And as for money, for the most part a blogad goes for less than a 3-line classified ad in a small town newspaper does. And, blogads.com allows anyone to form a network on any basis, so Markos’s just is not and cannot be the only game in town, quite apart from which lots of bloggers on blogads have the authority to “sponsor” other weblogs.

Billmon thinks that the attacks on Kos and his cyber-community may in part be coming from the section of the Democratic Party that leans toward Neoconservative philosophy and policies, and who, for instance, are disturbed by the prospect that Lieberman will be unseated by a Democratic challenger.

This point makes sense. But I think that the struggle is larger. For all the talk about freedom of speech and individual freedom in the United States, ours is actually a hierarchical society in which most people cannot afford to speak out unless they are themselves independently wealthy. A lot of Americans work for corporations, which would just fire anyone who became so outspoken in public as to begin to affect their company’s image. Look at how many bloggers are anonymous! Purveyors of opinion in the mass media, who use their real names, are employed by, or in some way backed by, media moguls. It is fairly easy to depart from the spectrum of acceptable opinion (i.e. acceptable to the three million or so people who have disproprotionate weight in how America is run), and if one does, after a while one is not heard from so much any more. Thus, those attacking Kos work for Martin Peretz and Arthur Shulzberger, Jr., and if they didn’t they would not have their current influential perches.

The very wealthy are used to getting their way in US politics and to dominating public discourse, since so much can be controlled at choke points. Journalists can just be fired, editors and other movers and shakers bought or intimidated. Look what happened to MSNBC reporter Ashleigh Banfield, who dared complain about the propaganda in the US new media around the Iraq War. Phil Donohue, who presided over MSNBC’s most popular talk show, was apparently fired before the war because General Electric and Microsoft knew he would be critical of it, and did not want to take the heat. Politicians who step out of line can just be unseated by giving their opponents funding (the Supreme Court just made it harder to restrict this sort of thing).

A grassroots communication system such as cyberspace poses a profound challenge to the forces of hierarchy and hegemony in American society. Now anyone with an internet connection and some interesting ideas can potentially get a hearing from the public.

Kos and his community, in short, are at the center of a discourse revolution. Now persons making a few tens of thousands of dollars a year can be read by hundreds of thousands of readers with no mediation from media moguls. The old joke had been that anyone can own a newspaper, it only takes a million dollars (a really old joke, since it would take much more).

The lack of choke points in cyberspace means that people like Kos can’t just be fired. How then to shut them up? Why, you attempt to ruin their reputation, as a way of scaring off readers and supporters. This technique, as Billmon points out, does not usually work very well in cyberspace itself, though it can be effective if the blogger moves into a bricks and mortar institutional environment where big money and chokeholds work again. A political party is such an environment.

Cyberspace itself, though, is a distributed system, not a centralized one. That is why the charges against Kos are so silly. In essence, creatures of the old choke-point hegemonies are projecting their own hierarchical system inaccurately on Kos. Of course you wouldn’t expect people like Peretz or David Brooks to understand what a distributed information system is, dinosaurs as they are, of both politics and media.

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