Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Monday, June 26, 2006

Iraqi Petroleum Exports up
25 killed in Civil War Violence


Borzou Daragahi of the LA Times reports severe doubts about PM Maliki's reconciliation plan in the Sunni Arab al-Anbar province.

Iraq's petroleum production has recently surged to above 2 million barrels a day, according to petroleum minister Husain Shahristani. The government recently managed to get the northern Kirkuk pipelines back online, after they faced repeated sabotage. Bad winter weather had also harmed exports from Basra earlier this year, but that problem subsided with the onset of summer.

That the US military has contingency plans for troop cuts in Iraq is not actually very interesting. Actual significant troop cuts? That would be interesting. Swopa points out that the same story about planned cuts appeared in the NYT last summer.

Al-Zaman says that the Revenge Brigades in Basra, a secretive Shiite organization, is circulating a pamphlet warning Sunni Arabs in the largely Shiite southern port city that they had until 1 July to leave the city. The threat is part of a general move to ethnic cleansing of Sunnis in the city; many Sunni families are fleeing to West Baghdad hundreds of miles to the north.

Al-Zaman reports that US troops invaded the homes of Shaikh Mithal al-Hasnawi of the Sadr Movement, and of his brother, in the town of Hindiyah in Karbala province. Al-Hasnawi eluded them, not being at home. He is accused of being implicated in attacks on music shops

Reuters reports violence in Iraq's ongoing civil war on Sunday:

Guerrillas set off a roadside bomb in the al-Shorja shopping district of Baghdad, killing 3 and wounding 17. Then guerrillas detonated a bomb in a minibus, killing 2 and wounding 5 in al-Nahda district of Baghdad. Then in the eastern Zayouna district, a suicide car bomber detonated his payload at a police checkpoint, killing a police commando and wounding 9 persons. So that is 6 dead and 31 wounded from bombings in the capital, at a time when there is a major crackdown on the guerrilla movement in Baghdad.

Guerrillas kidnapped 16 employees of a technology institute at Taji north of Baghdad.

In Khan Bani Sa`d, near Baquba to the northeast of Baghdad, guerrillas attacked a police checkpoint and killed 5 Iraqi soldiers.

In the mostly Christian town of Bartila (near Mosul) in the north, guerrillas set off a car bomb near the office of the (Shiite) Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, among the leading parties in parliament, killing 2 persons and wounding 13.

There were other scattered shootings and assassinations around the country, with a GI killed near Tikrit. US forces killed or captured a number of guerrilla fighters. The total number of dead was at least 25 on Sunday, with dozens wounded.

Number of car bombings in Iraq from the dawn of time until 2002 before the US invasion: 0.

At least 50,000 Iraqis have died in violence since the US invasion, according to Iraqi health officials. I am told by people who should know that the Lancet estimate of 100,000 is perfectly plausible, and that was some time ago.

Fresh fighting broke out in Diwaniyah. Clashes took place in al-`Asri district, gunmen clashed with police commandos. (Just speculation, but this is probably actually a fight between Mahdi Army irregulars and Badr Corps who were recruited into the police commandos by the SCIRI-dominated Interior Ministry.

In downtown Amara, gunmen assassinated Haydar Abdul Husain al-Maliki, who had just received a fellowship to study English in Switzerland from the Iraqi Ministry of Education. He was in a taxi when he was cut down; the driver was wounded.

The Iraqi parliament seems set to affirm the free market legislation of Paul Bremer, allowing foreign concerns to own 100 percent of Iraqi firms and allowing unconstrained repatriation of profits.

Sarah Smiles of The Age in Melbourne reports on Australian worries that its troops will face a tougher situation replacing the Italians in Nasiriyah than they had in sleepy Muthanna. Nasiriyah has competing Dawa, SCIRI, Mahdi Army and Fadhila factions and has seen many anti-Western demonstrations. She interviews Ahmed S. Hashim, who has been in Iraq and talks of the new Iraqi army:


' Critics have described the new force [the Iraqi Army], forged after the 2003 war when the coalition dissolved the old Iraqi army, as highly unprofessional, and doubt its ability to provide security.

"I really wasn't impressed by them, their training or equipment," said Dr Ahmed Hashim of the US Naval War College, who was in Iraq as an adviser to the US Army until late last year.

"Some units were more like militias of each ethnic and sectarian group rather than a national army … Their allegiances are owed to political parties and class rather than the nation per se."


Smiles is to be congratulated for reporting the reality from Hashim, who is qualified to judge it; we see too little of this in the US press.

14 Comments:

At 9:05 AM, Blogger james_speaks said...

"The Iraqi parliament seems set to affirm the free market legislation of Paul Bremer, allowing foreign concerns to own 100 percent of Iraqi firms and allowing unconstrained repatriation of profits."

Dr. Cole,

That link was broken so I Googled and found this.

Although there is something to be said for encouraging foreign investment, the fact that this is Bremer's law makes it look a lot like colonialism.

 
At 12:45 PM, Blogger wmmbb said...

The Age is Melbourne's broadsheet morning newspaper.

 
At 1:17 PM, Blogger johnMccutchen said...

That the US military has contingency plans for troop cuts in Iraq is not actually very interesting. Actual significant troop cuts? That would be interesting. Swopa points out that the same story about planned cuts appeared in the NYT last summer.


I'm going to cast caution to the wind and say that I must disagree most strenuously with Dr. Cole on this point for the reasons I outlined in two comments on the subject at Marshall's TPMCafe.

For context, Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst back from a recent trip to Iraq, is calling out deficiencies in US counterinsurgency.

Credit Gen Casey for a shrewd move in going public with the "cut and run timetable" in the middle of Bush's latest charm offensive and GOP chest thumping on Capitol Hill. He tried a similar ploy a year ago, to tie Bush to a timetable because he doesn't want to continue to waste his army in a vain and unwinable cause.

No matter how much in the way additional assets the US might committ, it cannot prevail Bush, with the most powerful military force the world has ever known, has fallen victim to the power of weakness:



1. Casey put it to Bush big time.

Make no mistake. As I said up thread and in more than one comment months ago, Casey's using the same tactics today that he did when, last June he tried to corner Bush last June (Swopa( and more forcefully last November at which time I predicted that Casey's next move would not be subtle. As you might recall, last summer Rumsfeld visited Iraq. Bush was in the middle of a minor Charm Offensive pumping the December election ju-ju. Both Jafaari and Casey and I believe Talabani let slip the "W" word. More of a whisper, I suppose but clear enough that Bush immediately slapped all three down. In November, I believe it was, Casey was a bit more blunt (the Occupation fuels the counterinsurgency). Bush ignored him. Bad move.

Such timing! Right in the middle of the Big Turkey Flight II, the GOP Congressional pep rally, the Rove Master Strategery '06...and as before the Iraqi PM joins the chorus, this time the W word becoming a condition of the well spun "Reconciliation Initiative". From public wrist slap to public bitch slap

In chess, he's a few moves from checkmate. In bridge, a Bath Coup perhaps....Sure "conditions" on the ground won't justify a stay the course draw down. The "projections" of current conditions and trends upon which this "plan" was based are bogus. He's just throwing Bush's bull back at him. So Bush won't make the deadlines if he continues to "stay the course". But that is what Casey expects. He doesn't want to "stay the course". Casey wants to cut the crap and run. He's even given Bush two incentives - a September and a year end target for the elections -Idiot's Choice - either meet deadlines (cut and run) or stay the course, a*s in sling.

I done told y'all the next time Bush tried to hustle Casey he'd feel the tip of the General's spear.

Brilliant!

2. Why Casey wants to Cut and Run

Resistance to War in Military {Col Ann Walter (USA-Ret) Truthout]

As a 29-year Army and Army Reserves veteran, I am horrified to see the politicization of the US military under the Bush administration. The "ethics and professionalism" of the US military has been targeted for destruction by the civilian appointees of this administration. ...

Despite the "yes, sir" attitude of senior military officers toward the Bush administration's illegal policies,... resistance to the war on Iraq within the US military community is growing. Over eight thousand American soldiers are absent without leave (AWOL), most living underground in the United States. Many now refer to AWOL as "Against War of Lies" instead of Absent Without Leave.

Individual non-public resistance in the military generally results in an administrative discharge without publicity. Thousands have turned themselves in to military authorities and have been administratively discharged from the military. US military bases discharge dozens of war resisters each week.


The US Command recently sent hundreds of Bradley AFV's and Abrams tanks back for premature reconditioning. That was the power of sand. Casey's other problem - declining morale - can't be remedied so easily. That is a
problem of weakness.

Martin van Creveld [puts the conundrum thus]: In other words, he who fights against the weak — and the rag-tag Iraqi militias are very weak indeed — and loses, loses. He who fights against the weak and wins also loses. To kill an opponent who is much weaker than yourself is unnecessary and therefore cruel; to let that opponent kill you is unnecessary and therefore foolish. As Vietnam and countless other cases prove, no armed force however rich, however powerful, however, advanced, and however well motivated is immune to this dilemma. The end result is always disintegration and defeat; if U.S. troops in Iraq have not yet started fragging their officers, the suicide rate among them is already exceptionally high. That is why the present adventure will almost certainly end as the previous one did. Namely, with the last US troops fleeing the country while hanging on to their helicopters’ skids.

In a word, the brilliance and signficance lies in the politics and the reason for the politics both of which are exceptionally noteworthy not the substance which is incidental.

 
At 1:52 PM, Blogger johnMccutchen said...

I cannot emphasize enough that the significance of Casey's announcement lies in its timing and its politics not its substance. The "conditions" will not be ripe. Casey was being cagey in asserting that the trend lines, support the timetable. Dr. Hashim's quoted observations are conclusive on that point

The Bush "strategy", if we can call it that, will not produced the results that it anticipates. When September rolls around, then come November, and Bush does not meet Casey's timetable targets the question becomes "why did Bush fail?", the answer and solution obvious.

Line in the sand as it were

 
At 2:24 PM, Blogger johnMccutchen said...

Associated Press Reports:



Casey's meeting with Bush followed an eventful several weeks in Iraq that included the death of insurgent leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the completion of a new Iraq government. It also follows a particularly rancorous set of debates in the House and Senate, in which GOP lawmakers -- with the encouragement of the White House -- went after Democrats for insufficiently supporting the war effort and said that decisions about issues like troop deployments should remain with the president.



U.S. commanders in Iraq have long made no secret of their desire to reduce troop levels in Iraq, so in one sense the report about Casey's briefing came as little surprise to some experts on Iraq. But coming so soon after the congressional debates, the report served to keep the debate going another day.






Like I said - pardon my french - Bush bitch-slapped in public.

Voila - the Kerry-Feingold Amendment

Brilliant!!

 
At 3:17 PM, Blogger Cervantes said...

"Number of car bombings in Iraq from the dawn of time until 2002 before the US invasion: 0."

I believe this is not quite correct. IIRC, Iyad Allawi, with CIA financing, sponsored one or two car bombings in Baghdad in the early 1990s. If I'm off on the details, please correct me.

 
At 4:16 PM, Blogger janinsanfran said...

Before the Sunnis were under the gun in Basra, it was the Christians. Report of a meeting with Christian refugees from Basra that took place in Damascus last week. More and more lives torn apart. For what?

 
At 6:21 PM, Blogger johnMccutchen said...

Casey Bags Varmit: Green Zone Helicopters Stand-by



Item: Good Shot!

"US confirms Iraq withdrawal option"




By Tabassum Zakaria Reuters

The White House confirmed on Monday that the top U.S. military commander in Iraq has drafted a plan for U.S. troop cuts there, but said the plan was just one option.

Item: OOPS - Same Old Course

Iraq peace hopes depend on US free hand on amnesty: analysts


by Jay Deshmukh1 AFP

A peace plan unveiled by the Iraqi government in a bid to stem a raging insurgency will only succeed if the United States refrains from setting the terms of any amnesty given to the rebels, analysts said.

Any move by Washington to try to restrict the categories of insurgent eligible for clemency under Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's reconciliation plan would only further fan rebel violence by exposing the limits of Iraqi sovereignty, they said.

US and Iraqi leaders "have to differentiate between terrorists and national resistance and it is here that the Americans have to show flexibility," said Hassan al-Bazzaz, professor of crisis management at Baghdad University.


Rosey Scenario was late again. Must have wrong road map.

Gen Casey must be in shock...all that planning for nothing!


Where are the Democrats? They should be howling.

 
At 7:14 PM, Blogger Spin proof said...

I would like to disagree with johnMccutchen.

Bush does want to drastically reduce troop levels. In fact, the invasion plan called for 35,000 only to stay permanently, with the rest withdrawn by July 2003!

However, in his fantasy world he is going turn this into an astonishing victory by few well chosen and well timed speeches to coincide with a headline grabbing big bang reduction. All will be forgiven, and he is again the biggest hero in history.

The problem with the US politics is that it favors the low life who ruthlessly prey on the ignorance of the masses. They drown reason and intellect with taunts and slogans that find sympathy among the masses.

However, those who win,like Bush, think they can win anything they want with slogans. This is tragically wrong. You can never win things like the economy or armed conflict with bullshit.

 
At 7:49 PM, Blogger dancewater said...

I wanted to say thanks, Dr. Cole, for doing this blog day in and day out.


I think the Allawi/CIA bombings were in the middle 90's.

But there is no argument with the fact that Iraq was a hell of lot better off in 2002 than they are in 2006.

 
At 8:53 PM, Blogger Matt MacLean said...

"Number of car bombings in Iraq from the dawn of time until 2002 before the US invasion: 0."

A fine debating point, but there was plenty of other violence by Saddam's regime that never saw the light of day in the international press - certainly not in the level of detail that Professor Cole is able to post daily on his (highly informative) blog. We should not assume that Iraq was "peaceful" - or as one of my high school students said, "all lollipops and gumdrops" - before the U.S. invasion, just because we didn't get a blow-by-blow update from a blog.

Note: I'm not trying to make the case that Iraq is all "lollipops and gumdrops" now either - I'm merely pointing out that violence against civilians has continued, but in a different way and by presumably different actors.

 
At 10:45 PM, Blogger Cervantes said...

Ah yes, here it is, from Tom Dispatch:

But Al Zarqawi did not originate car bomb terrorism along the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates; that dark honor belongs to the CIA and its favorite son, Iyad Allawi. As the New York Times revealed in June 2004:

"Iyad Allawi, now the designated prime minister of Iraq, ran an exile organization intent on deposing Saddam Hussein that sent agents into Baghdad in the early 1990s's to plant bombs and sabotage government facilities under the direction of the CIA, several former intelligence officials say. Dr. Allawi's group, the Iraqi National Accord, used car bombs and other explosives devices smuggled into Baghdad from northern Iraq… One former Central Intelligence Agency officer who was based in the region, Robert Baer, recalled that a bombing during that period ‘blew up a school bus; schoolchildren were killed.'"

According to one of the Times' informants, the bombing campaign, dead school kids and all, "was a test more than anything else, to demonstrate capability." It allowed the CIA to portray the then-exiled Allawi and his suspect group of ex-Baathists as a serious opposition to Saddam Hussein and an alternative to the coterie (so favored by Washington neoconservatives) around Ahmed Chalabi. "No one had any problem with sabotage in Baghdad back then," another CIA veteran reflected. "I don't think anyone could have known how things would turn out today."

 
At 2:57 PM, Blogger John Francis Lee said...

The Iraqi parliament seems set to affirm the free market legislation of Paul Bremer, allowing foreign concerns to own 100 percent of Iraqi firms and allowing unconstrained repatriation of profits.

Boy... I hope that report on gulfnews is just wishful thinking on the part of the neoliberals. To think that after all they've gone through the Iraqi people might now be sold out by their own is extremely disheartening.

 
At 5:20 PM, Blogger dancewater said...

"I'm merely pointing out that violence against civilians has continued, but in a different way and by presumably different actors."


But what you failed to point out is that things are much worse today then they generally were under Saddam.

And no sign that things will get better either.

 

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