Informed Comment

Sunni Mosque Burned

Guerrillas (likely Shiite militiamen) use mortar fire to destroy a Sunni mosque and burn down 20 shops in Shahraban near Baquba, northeast of Baghdad, on Wednesday morning.

Reuters reports the civil war violence for Tuesday. There were bombings in Baghdad, Kirkuk and elsewhere, killing some 21 persons in iraq on Tuesday.

Al-Zaman runs an article claiming that 632 Palestinians have been killed or imprisoned in Iraq since the war started in spring 2003.

Iraq displaced children suffer health effects, mental problems from their plight.

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Personal Investment as Commitment

AP says that a “safer Iraq” is needed for US investment. D’oh.

But this article reminds me of all the politicians (of both major parties) and bloggers who keep saying that things are just fine in Iraq and that the bad news is exaggerated by the “liberal media” (oh mythic phoenix!).

And, I think we ought to hold their feet to the fire. Every time someone says that in reality things are just fine in Iraq, we should ask them how much of their own, personal money they have invested in a private business enterprise in Iraq. The Iraqi-American Chamber of Commerce can help them with specific investment opportunities.

I think we should exclude buying real estate or investing in mercen . . . I mean US contracting. Also, it has to be an investment in Arab Iraq, not the Kurdistan Regional confederacy. But, if things are going so great, then surely this is the time to put $100,000 into, say, a textile factory in . . . I don’t know, Baquba. Most of these politicians and bloggers on the Right could afford such an investment, and most wouldn’t even be too badly off if they lost the whole wad.

So, Fox Cable News anchors, rightwing bloggers, smug pundits, etc., etc.– Pony up. How much have you put on the line here to back up your Dr. Pangloss-style rose colored glasses? And, if you haven’t put at least a few tens of thousands of dollars into a private Iraqi business, then you do not have a leg to stand on.

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Saudi Ambassador Calls on Palestinians to Use Gandhian Tactics
Saudi Elected Parliament within the Decade?

I heard the Saudi ambassador to the US, Prince Turki Al-Faisal, give this speech Tuesday evening at the US-Arab Economic Forum, and am excerpting a few key passages. He also made remarks in the afternoon. At one point he said that he expected that within the next decade, Saudi Arabia’s Shura Council or legislature would be popularly elected. I.e., it would become a democratic parliament. He said that the provincial legislatures would also be elected by then. I, at least, had not before heard such a direct and specific timetable laid out for this development. Of course, he is an ambassador and not the Saudi executive, but his remarks were unequivocal.

On Tuesday evening, he openly called on the Palestinians to give up all violence to and wage their struggle for self-determination using Gandhian principles of nonviolent peaceful resistance.

I have in the past been critical of Reagan-Fahd policies in the 1980s, both in Central America and in Afghanistan, and the willingness to fund irregulars (who in the next generation became the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan) to fight the Soviets. But from what I heard this eveing, Prince Turki, who as Saudi minister of intelligence circa 1980-2001 must have been a key part of those 1980s events, has had a significant change of heart. If so, he has learned more from the earlier mistakes than has e.g. Donald Rumsfeld (imagine Rumsfeld or any old Reaganaut invoking Gandhian ahimsa!) I have to say, I was startled. As for the question of sincerity, well, Reagan used to quote what he said was a Russian saying, “Trust, and verify.” This could be an important development, and we should keep our eyes on the new Saudi Ambassador in Washington.

“A Force for Peace & Stability”

Speech by Saudi Ambassador to the U.S.

Prince Turki Al-Faisal

at the U.S. Arab Economic Forum Gala Dinner

Houston, Texas on June 27, 2006

. . . Political reforms are also being implemented to increase citizen participation, such as last year’s elections for municipal councils. More elections are planned for the future in order to give our people a more direct say in the decisions that affect them.

Saudi Arabia’s goal is also to promote peace and stability in our region. The Roman poet Horace once wrote: “It is your concern when your neighbor’s wall is on fire.” Right now, our neighbors’ walls are ablaze. Iraq, Afghanistan, and Palestine all require immediate attention. In addition, the situation with Iran calls for international engagement and diplomacy. In each of these circumstances, the Kingdom is doing what it can to bring parties together, open up dialogues, and offer solutions for peace and progress.

Many of the world’s problems also require humanitarian assistance, such as for natural disasters, disease and poverty. In those areas Saudi Arabia is a leader. Many people don’t know that the Kingdom contributes more per capita in foreign aid than any other country in the world. We have also provided hundreds of millions of dollars to victims of the tsunami in the Indian Ocean region, hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and the earthquakes in Pakistan and, most recently, in Indonesia. . .

. . . So tonight, I lay down the following challenges for all of us.

First, to Saudi Arabia, I challenge ourselves to meet the needs of our youth and ensure that they have the education, the tools and the means to help change the world, and become a force for good and tolerance.

I challenge the Palestinian people to give up the armed struggle and follow the spirit of Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King by engaging in civil disobedience instead of violence, even in the face of Israeli guns. Violence is the weapon of the weak; non-violence is the weapon of the strong.

I challenge the Israeli people to give up their illegal, immoral and colonial occupation of Palestine.

I challenge the United States to use the power and abilities with which God has blessed this great nation to bring about an end to the Palestinian/Israeli conflict through the implementation of the President’s Roadmap.

And I challenge the Arab-Americans in this audience tonight to take a more active part in resolving the conflicts that exist in the world today. We must compel the governments of the world to take the required actions to end the injustices that fuel tensions, distrust, hatred and violence. And so as you leave this conference, I implore each of you to continue in your own right-as ambassadors from the Arab world. Whether you are from Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, or any other part of the Arab world, you should be proud of your Arab heritage and legacy-which truly does extend here to the United States. You should be proud of the contributions Arabs have made to the advancement of humanity over the centuries, and to the greatness of American culture and life. And you should be proud of yourselves, for you are the only ones who can bridge the gap between the two great societies. It is not always easy, but it will always be rewarding. And it can’t be done without you. . .”

This material is distributed by DNX Partners, LLC on behalf of the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC.

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The Zarqawi Effect

My article on the aftermath of the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in the Muslim world is out in Salon.com.

Excerpt:

‘ Whatever the meaning of the killing of Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi by a U.S. airstrike earlier this month, it has not lessened Iraq’s violent nightmare, or calmed tensions in the Middle East. Al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called him “the prince of martyrs” and vowed revenge on the U.S. Some reports suggest that the two U.S. soldiers captured at Yusufiyah were tortured and killed by Zarqawi’s shadowy successor. The three weeks after his death have witnessed daily bombings with dozens of casualties throughout Iraq. And Zarqawi’s demise has stirred up trouble throughout the region, as controversies on how to respond to it have erupted among secularists and fundamentalists, Sunnis and Shiites. ‘

Read the whole article.

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Civil War Violence Leaves 60 Dead over 100 Wounded
130,000 Displaced in Past 4 Months

Bombings and other civil war violence took the lives of at least 60 Iraqis on Monday. In addition, guerrillas kidnapped 10 Sunni students who were attending a technical institute in Shiite East Baghdad.

In the worst incident, guerrillas detonated a bomb in a crowded market in the Shiite city of Hilla south of Baghdad, killing 30 and wounding 56.

In the village of Khairnabat near Baquba, a troubled city northeast of the capital, a motorcycle bomb in a crowded market killed at least 18 and wounded 30.

Guerrillas used a car bomb in the Amiriyah district of Baghdad to kill 5 Iraqi soldiers.

In Saydiyah, southern Baghdad guerrillas detonated a bomb at a checkpoint, killing 3 police commandos.

Guerrillas tried yet again on Monday to kill Adnan Dulaimi, a leader of the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front that is cooperating with the new government of PM al-Maliki. They only managed to kill his bodyguard.

Four Russian embassy employees, kidnapped earlier, were confirmed dead.

US and Iraqi troops–but mainly US troops are trying to take Ramadi neighborhood by neighborhood and then to garrison Iraqi troops in each so as to keep them secure in the long term. But there is a problem with Iraqi troops not showing up to fight, saying they do not want to fight other Iraqis or that they fear they will provoke tribal feuds if they fight the Dulaim in Ramadi.

As the AFP/ Daily Times piece linked above notes, the Iraqi government is saying that 7 Sunni Arab guerrilla groups, mostly Baathist in character, have indicated a willingness to engage in talks. This news may or may not lead anywhere. Guerrilla insurgencies often talk to the governments they are endeavoring to overthrow, and sometimes go on to overthrow it even after the talks.

Iraq violence in the past 4 months has expelled 130,000 persons from their homes and neighborhoods, leaving them displaced and uncertain of their future.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat/ DPA say [Ar.] that the people of Tikrit are disappointed in Maliki’s reconciliation plan, insofar as the amnesty it offers to opponents of the new regime is too limited.

School enrollment is up over-all in Iraq. This phenomenon is largely a result of the removal of the United States/ United Nations sanctions, which had devastated the Iraqi middle classes, and had actually cause the literacy rate to fall substantially in the 1990s. Tavernise notes, however, that school enrollment has actually fallen in Baghdad, which is about a fourth of the country.

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Iraqi Petroleum Exports up
25 killed in Civil War Violence

Borzou Daragahi of the LA Times reports severe doubts about PM Maliki’s reconciliation plan in the Sunni Arab al-Anbar province.

Iraq’s petroleum production has recently surged to above 2 million barrels a day, according to petroleum minister Husain Shahristani. The government recently managed to get the northern Kirkuk pipelines back online, after they faced repeated sabotage. Bad winter weather had also harmed exports from Basra earlier this year, but that problem subsided with the onset of summer.

That the US military has contingency plans for troop cuts in Iraq is not actually very interesting. Actual significant troop cuts? That would be interesting. Swopa points out that the same story about planned cuts appeared in the NYT last summer.

Al-Zaman says that the Revenge Brigades in Basra, a secretive Shiite organization, is circulating a pamphlet warning Sunni Arabs in the largely Shiite southern port city that they had until 1 July to leave the city. The threat is part of a general move to ethnic cleansing of Sunnis in the city; many Sunni families are fleeing to West Baghdad hundreds of miles to the north.

Al-Zaman reports that US troops invaded the homes of Shaikh Mithal al-Hasnawi of the Sadr Movement, and of his brother, in the town of Hindiyah in Karbala province. Al-Hasnawi eluded them, not being at home. He is accused of being implicated in attacks on music shops

Reuters reports violence in Iraq’s ongoing civil war on Sunday:

Guerrillas set off a roadside bomb in the al-Shorja shopping district of Baghdad, killing 3 and wounding 17. Then guerrillas detonated a bomb in a minibus, killing 2 and wounding 5 in al-Nahda district of Baghdad. Then in the eastern Zayouna district, a suicide car bomber detonated his payload at a police checkpoint, killing a police commando and wounding 9 persons. So that is 6 dead and 31 wounded from bombings in the capital, at a time when there is a major crackdown on the guerrilla movement in Baghdad.

Guerrillas kidnapped 16 employees of a technology institute at Taji north of Baghdad.

In Khan Bani Sa`d, near Baquba to the northeast of Baghdad, guerrillas attacked a police checkpoint and killed 5 Iraqi soldiers.

In the mostly Christian town of Bartila (near Mosul) in the north, guerrillas set off a car bomb near the office of the (Shiite) Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, among the leading parties in parliament, killing 2 persons and wounding 13.

There were other scattered shootings and assassinations around the country, with a GI killed near Tikrit. US forces killed or captured a number of guerrilla fighters. The total number of dead was at least 25 on Sunday, with dozens wounded.

Number of car bombings in Iraq from the dawn of time until 2002 before the US invasion: 0.

At least 50,000 Iraqis have died in violence since the US invasion, according to Iraqi health officials. I am told by people who should know that the Lancet estimate of 100,000 is perfectly plausible, and that was some time ago.

Fresh fighting broke out in Diwaniyah. Clashes took place in al-`Asri district, gunmen clashed with police commandos. (Just speculation, but this is probably actually a fight between Mahdi Army irregulars and Badr Corps who were recruited into the police commandos by the SCIRI-dominated Interior Ministry.

In downtown Amara, gunmen assassinated Haydar Abdul Husain al-Maliki, who had just received a fellowship to study English in Switzerland from the Iraqi Ministry of Education. He was in a taxi when he was cut down; the driver was wounded.

The Iraqi parliament seems set to affirm the free market legislation of Paul Bremer, allowing foreign concerns to own 100 percent of Iraqi firms and allowing unconstrained repatriation of profits.

Sarah Smiles of The Age in Melbourne reports on Australian worries that its troops will face a tougher situation replacing the Italians in Nasiriyah than they had in sleepy Muthanna. Nasiriyah has competing Dawa, SCIRI, Mahdi Army and Fadhila factions and has seen many anti-Western demonstrations. She interviews Ahmed S. Hashim, who has been in Iraq and talks of the new Iraqi army:

‘ Critics have described the new force [the Iraqi Army], forged after the 2003 war when the coalition dissolved the old Iraqi army, as highly unprofessional, and doubt its ability to provide security.

“I really wasn’t impressed by them, their training or equipment,” said Dr Ahmed Hashim of the US Naval War College, who was in Iraq as an adviser to the US Army until late last year.

“Some units were more like militias of each ethnic and sectarian group rather than a national army … Their allegiances are owed to political parties and class rather than the nation per se.”

Smiles is to be congratulated for reporting the reality from Hashim, who is qualified to judge it; we see too little of this in the US press.

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23 Killed in Renewed Violence
Reconciliation Plan to be Unveiled

US troops had briefly arrested, then released, Shaikh Jamal Abdul Karim al-Dabaan. He is the chief Sunni jurisconsult (mufti) of Iraq, and the US military called his arrest “a mistake.” A thousand people gathered to picket the house of the governor of Salahuddin Province in protest.

Reuters gives the specifics of some of the bombings and other violence on Saturday.

Al-Hayat says that 23 fresh lives were lost on Saturday to civil war violence.

Steve Hurst points out that the guerrilla and civil war violence has gone on in spades since Zarqawi’s death. I’d make two further points. First, the daily carnage against Iraqis has been enormous in the past two weeks. There were several deadly car bombings again early Sunday in Baghdad itself. Second, the violence is not most “al-Qaeda”-driven. People in the Sunni district of Adhamiyah in Baghdad are mostly Baathists, not al-Qaeda, and some of them are surely planning out these bombings. Adhamiyah is now under actual attack by US and Iraqi forces, though there is some kind of news blackout on the operation. But the violence is going on anyway. The guerrillas, who still are able to coordinate, have just shifted operations to some other cities, or other districts of Baghdad. As Hurst notes, there was heavy fighting on Haifa Street near the Green Zone just the other day, an area of longstanding guerrilla activity that has been declared pacified over and over again by the US military and press. Bottom line, this article’s corrective is a good one, but doesn’t go far enough.

Update: Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki presented a 28-point reconciliation plan to parliament on Sunday.

Al-Hayat reports that Malik views this initiative as a privilege of the executive and that he does not intend to have parliament vote on it. A Shiite parliamentarian said it was outrageous to by-pass parliament in this way. Also, significant elements within al-Maliki’s own United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite) are disturbed by the idea of granting amnesty to Sunni Arab guerrillas.

The problem is quite the other way around. The amnesty is not extended to anyone who has “shed Iraqi blood,” and the Bush administration made al-Maliki back off the idea of granting amnesty to guerrillas who had killed US troops.

But if the point of the amnesty is to bring the guerrilla leadership in from the cold, this amnesty is useless. What Sunni Arab guerrillas worth their salt have killed no Iraqis and no US troops? As for the rest, why would Sunnis who had not killed anyone need to be amnestied? And wouldn’t they be rather pitiful guerrillas?

This is like Kissinger saying he would talk to the North Vietnamese but not to any of them who helped the VC kill ARvN and US soldiers. There wouldn’t have been any round table talks (not that that whole thing went very well anyway. Just saying.)

It appears that the main point of the “reconciliation” is not in fact to reconcile with the guerrilla movement. It is an attempt to draw off support from it by rehabilitating the Sunni Arabs who had been Baath party members. Those who had not actively killed anyone would now be brought back into public life and deep debaathification would be reversed, as I read it. (Ironically, al-Maliki led the charge for deep debaathification in the past 3 years!) Sunni Arabs would be compensated for losses inflicted on them by Iraqi and US troops (this is key to settling clan feuds against the new order). Shiite militias are to be disbanded. Militia influence in Iraqi police to be curbed. etc.

The plan also hopes to separate out the ex-Baathists from the Qutbists, who style themselves “Salafi Jihadis” but actually are just violent vigilantes, who, in the tradition of Sayyid Qutb of Egypt, blithely brand as non-Muslims worthy of death anyone who disagrees with their version of Islam. The Qutbists are coded as mainly foreigners.

My reading is that large numbers of Iraqi Sunni Arabs have swung to fundamentalist religion, and that the ex-Baathists use them in various ways, and it won’t be easy to break up this alliance of convenience.

I do not think this plan goes far enough. It is too little too late. But, well, reversing Ahmad Chalabi’s deep debaathification, in which school teachers were punished for joining the Baath Party in 1994 to get a promotion, would be a positive step, if that is what is envisaged. But then there is the question of implementation, and the question of what economy or government is left for the ex-Baathists now to join. Moreover, there is a lot of anger that can’t be dampened down so easily.

British forces seem unable to quell the rising tide of violence and insecurity in southern Iraq.

Some Iraqi veterans are already showing up back in the states as among the homeless.

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