190 Dead in Mumbai Train Bombings
The likelihood is that the sophisticated coordinated attack on the trains in India's western commercial hub of Mumbai (Bombay) was carried out by al-Qaeda-linked groups seeking the independence of Muslim-majority Kashmir from India.
It is also possible that they are seeking, as Peter Bergen suggested on CNN, to encourage Hindus to attack Muslims, which will stampede the Muslims of India into the embrace of radical Islam (not a taste most of them have had in the past). Frustrated extremists are always trying to think up ways to make others feel their frustration and join their cause.
In other words, the best counter-terrorism India could do in this instance is to practice restraint and, after a decent interval, to go back to the negotiating table with Pakistan over Kashmir.
Al-Qaeda and its like thrive on cowboy diplomacy and reprisals.
posted by Juan Cole @ 7/12/2006 12:31:00 AM
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10 Comments:
I think that when terrorist bombings occurs you are often accusing the Baathists in Iraq or Al'Quaeda in any other countries. This is often done without any prooves. Yesterday, one of your commenter asked what proof you had concerning the Baathists in Iraq. To-day I find your accusations concerning Al'Quaeda without fundation as well. The ethnic tensions in Kashmire predated the Al'Quaeda emergence, as far as I know. It's not the first time that islamist are bombing in India. Second what I've read in our daily press, the Indian police is investigating two islamist organizations of Kashmir, she has even arrested a member ofLashkar-e-Toiba (second NDTV). Another islamist organization suspected is Jaish-e-Mohammed. India uses to say that both of these organizations are supported by the Pakistan government, who claims part of the Kashmir. Still that doesn't proove that Al'Quaeda is behind this local conflict.
Wikipedia has more on the theme of Terrorism in Kashmir" although this article seems to be disputed.
The regular reading of your blog seems to indicate that you want to show that the US intervention in Iraq is a distraction from the fight against Al'Quaeda.. but that doesn't justify your attribution of any islamist bombing to Al'Quaeda without further prooves.
Your analysis is fair enough, but no one as of yet has declared responsibility.
We can speculate, but it looks like we will not really know until someone says, "I did it," right?
Thanks for the post and the accompanying commentary. The silence about the Indian bomb blast on the left blogosphere has been deafening. It is important to acknowledge the havoc wreaked by terrorists just as we must shine the light on the misdeeds of elected governments.
These scare tactics by "Al-Queda" have worked with remarkable success in inciting fear/hatred and by consequence pushing younger muslims to continue to embrace radicalism.
Its scary that Zawahri's modern interpretations of Qutb's Jahliya have worked to the extent they have today. Hopefully tollerance and restraint will be practiced... I'd hate to see more people fall into that trap.
I don't think we should rush to point fingers; these bombings could just as well be the responsibility of one of the many seperatist groups active along India's eastern fringe (Assam, Nagaland, etc.) This could be an attempt to get their issues back on the table. We won't know for sure until there is either a confirmed claim of responsibility or a thorough investigation.
One thing that everyone from the blogosphere to the cable news pundits are leaving out is that this also has the imprimatur of Mumbai's underworld on it.
Anyone here ever heard of Dawood Ibrahim, the Qatar-based or Pakistan-based former "Don" of the Mumbai underworld? His folks were responsible for the 1993 blasts and while his organization has been reported weakened significantly in the last few years, I'd bet dollars to donuts that they at least facilitated this attack.
Between the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and this, the military analysts are going to be busy the remainder of the week.
Al-Qaeda linked groups like LET seek Kashmir's separation from India as a first step in a larger plan of disintegrating India. They have said so themselves. Solving the Kashmir problem will help, but not solve, such terrorism in India. A more comprehensive solution would require a clean break from terrorism by the ISI and hard-line elements withing the Pakistani military and India continuing its efforts to integrate alienated Muslims in India.
Completely agree with your concluding statement.
christiane et al,
Juan's post begins with "The likelihood is..." not "It is certain that..." That seems reasonable enough.
Sorry, don't agree. This is the sixth time Mumbai has been bombed since 1993. Negotiations with Pakistan cannot be an option, if it is proved that Pakistan-based LeT/Jaish are involved in bombing 8 trains during peak rush hour traffic on some of the world's most crowded trains in an attempt to inflict maximum damage in India's economic nerve centre.
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