Informed Comment

Kabul Bombing Kills at Least 10
Zawahiri Condemns Pope

At least 10 are dead and 54 wounded in a bombing at the Ministry of the Interior on Saturday in Kabul. (Update: The death toll is rising. Karzai blamed it on foreign elements.

For those who want to read more about what has gone wrong in Afghanistan, the well thought of Senlis Council report on the return of the Taliban is here.

In a separate incident a guerrilla bomb killed a Canadian soldier. This was the tenth killing of a Canadian soldier this month.

A new videotape of Ayman al-Zawahiri has surfaced on the internet. He taunts Bush and dismissed Pope Benedict as ntothing more than a crusader.

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Sudden Curfew in Baghdad

The Iraqi government has imposed a curfew on Baghdad. Some reports say it is for 24 hours. This one maintains that it is for 3 days. For those who haven’t lived through them, it is worth noting that such curfews can be huge inconveniences. If you haven’t stocked enough food and water, too bad. And, for people who need the money, missing work is a catastrophe. The move was abrupt and caught some Iraqi and US officials by surprise. Several hundred bodies have shown up dead in Baghdad’s streets in the past week.

Congress placed restrictions on the Bush administration in its Defense Department appropriations bill, forbidding permanent bases in Iraq or trying to control the Iraqi petroleum sector. Many in Congress feel that the guerrilla movement is fueled in part by anxieties over American intentions with regard to these two issues.

16 died in guerrilla war violence in Iraq on Friday. Among the deaths, 10 bodies were found, mostly in Baghdad but some in Suwayra.

The prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government has threatened to secede from Iraq if the federal government will not recognize the oil contracts signed by the regional confederacy with Western petroleum companies. Baghdad was not consulted on these deals, and Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani has begun insisting that the central government does have some prerogatives in this regard.

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100 Dead in Iraq on Thursday;
Including 60 Bodies found in Baghdad

Reuters reports almost 40 persons killed in political violence as a result of Iraq’s civil war on Thursday. Guerrillas set off several bomb attacks and fired mortars inside Baghdad, accounting for a number of the deaths.

In addition, Police found 60 bodies in various parts of Baghdad, showing signs of torture. They were victims of Sunni-Shiite sectarian reprisal killings. The inability of the current “Forward Together” campaign by the US and Iraqi militaries in Baghdad to deter this widespread murder and lawlessness suggests that the problem is long-term and intractable now.

The US military is complaining that the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is impeding their efforts to take on the Shiite militias that are behind many of these death squad attacks. Al-Maliki came to power with the support of the Sadr Movement and the Mahdi Army, which are prime suspects in the deaths of Sunni Arabs. The US is convinced that the Mahdi Army and the Badr Corps, both Shiite militias are behind a lot of the “war of the corpses” in Baghdad.

Two thirds of Americans say that Iraq is in civil war. Nearly 40 percent of the public said that they did not have a clear idea why the US was in Iraq in the first place.

A new University of Maryland poll found that 71 percent of Iraqis want US troops out by September, 2007. Some 60 percent of Iraqis support attacks on US troops. Since the Sunni Arabs are about 20 percent of the populations, and since the Kurds are very positive toward the US, I figure that this poll result means that the other 40% of Iraqis who support attacks on US troops are Shiites. Shiites make up around 60 percent of the Iraqi population, which means that two-thirds of Shiites support attacks on Americans!

Another recent poll found that 90 percent of Iraqis say that they would not want an American for a neighbor.

If counter-insurgency is about winning hearts and minds, then the US has lost Iraq pretty definitively, if these polling results are at all accurate.

Bob Woodward points out that Iraqis attack US troops on an average once every 15 minutes. There are 900 attacks a week, and it is expected to get worse in 2007. Woodward says that the Bush administration routinely hides from the US public the severity of the problems in Iraq.

Bush accused the Democrats of being the party of “cut and run,” on Thursday. But when you are losing a guerrilla war, you should begin considering an orderly retreat. Otherwise you will be stuck in an ever worsening quagmire.

Look at when the British withdrew from Kenya. The Mau Mau revolt and other political violence sudddenly went away. Likewise in the 60s when the French withdrew from Algeria. The longer the US is the military occupier in Iraq, the more likely it is that American lives will be endangered.

Guerrilla sabotage of petroleum facilities has cost Iraq $16 billion in the past two years. Iraq has only been able to pump 1.7 million barrels per day in September, suggesting that the Kirkuk pipeline is closed again and that even down south at Basra something is impeding exports. In August, they did 2.2 million barrels a day, but that apparently could not be sustained. Under the old Baath government, Iraq used to pum 2.8 to 3 mn. barrels per day.

Senior British military officers have been arguing for a British withdrawal from southern Iraq in favor of concentrating on the mission in Afghanistan. It is rare for senior officers to challenge an entire mission. In my view, British impatience to leave southern Iraq reflects a realization that the Shiite south is likely to go on being dominated by Shiite religious parties and militias, and nothing they do is likely to change that outcome. Moreover, since those parties dominate the central government, they are allies on paper, at least, and it is difficult to take them on even if they misbehave (as the Mahdi Army often does).

China says it is interested in resuming oil cooperation with Iraq. You betcha. China has been growing at 10 percent a year and is extremely oil and gas hungry. Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani has signalled that Iraq will honor the deal the Baath government struck with China for development of the small al-Ahdab field.

The news that the Iraqi government seems willing to forge ahead with oil deals, even if they are with China, was said to give heart to the US oil majors, suggesting that they might not be far froms striking some new deals themselves.

The civilian contracting companies that were supposed to do reconstruction in Iraq often did not do it very well, even though they were very well paid for it.

Tom Engelhardt has George W. Bush’s Iraq in 21 questions.

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3 GIs Killed;
Over 80 Dead in Violence;
Poll: Iraqis want US out Now

WaPo reports on new polls in Iraq that find that a clear majority of Iraqis want US troops to leave, and to leave by the end of the year. Even among Sunni Arabs, who have begun to feel vulnerable to attacks from Shiite death squads, 57 percent still said that they wanted the US out– a majority. The general numbers outside Kurdistan are much higher, as high as 70 to 80 percent.

Now the United Nations has issued a report that sees Iraq as a major generator of anti-Western terrorism.

The UN report stressed the negative impact of the Iraq War on developments in Afghanistan:

‘ The report by terrorism experts working for the UN Security Council said al Qaeda was playing a central role in the fighting in Iraq as well as inspiring a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan, several hundred miles (km) away.

“New explosive devices are now used in Afghanistan within a month of their first appearing in Iraq,” said the report. “And while the Taliban have not been found fighting outside Afghanistan/Pakistan, there have been reports of them training in both Iraq and Somalia.” ‘

Meanwhile, the British Ministry of Defense think tank commissioned a study that has now been leaked, which called the Bush-Blair Iraq War a “‘recruiting sergeant’ for extremists across the Muslim world.” The Guardian reports:

‘ “The war in Iraq … has acted as a recruiting sergeant for extremists across the Muslim world … Iraq has served to radicalise an already disillusioned youth and al-Qaida has given them the will, intent, purpose and ideology to act.”

On Afghanistan, the paper said Britain went in “with its eyes closed”. It claims that a secret deal to extricate UK troops from Iraq so they could focus on Afghanistan failed when British military leaders were overruled. ‘

So that’s what happened to those plans to deploy British troops in south Iraq instead to Afghanistan. You wonder who exactly did the over-ruling. Dick Cheney?

The report, which MoD says doesn’t reflect its own views, is harsh toward the Pakistani government and the Inter-Services Intelligence which had in the 1990s and early zeroes been dominated by radical fundamentalists in the mold of Hamid Gul. It is widely believed that Musharraf has purged those elements by now.

Back to Iraq. A top US general implicitly criticized the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for not having dealt with the problem of Shiite militias:

‘ “We have to fix this militia issue. We can’t have armed militias competing with Iraq’s security forces. But I have to trust the prime minister to decide when it is that we do that,” said Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, the second-highest-ranking American military official in Baghdad.

Chiarelli’s comments to a gathering of reporters were a part of a growing chorus of concerns from U.S. political and military leaders about the Iraqi government’s ability and willingness to tackle corruption and militia-run death squads. They suggest that top American leaders are growing frustrated with the pace of reforms and may even be starting to argue for eventual U.S. withdrawal. ‘

Reuters reports 83 persons killed and dozens wounded in political violence throughout Iraq. Major incidents:

Sabrina Tavernise of the NYT reports on how Muqtada al-Sadr has lost control of about 1/3 of his fighters. They are upset at Sadr’s joining the political process and moderating his actions toward the Americans.

‘ ANBAR PROVINCE – A U.S. marine and a soldier died on Monday in separate combat incidents in the restive western province of Anbar, the U.S. military said in statements.

BAGHDAD – A U.S. soldier died after being shot in southern Baghdad, the U.S. military said in a statement. . .

BAGHDAD – Ten people were killed and 11 wounded when gunmen opened fire near the Sunni Mashaada mosque in the Hurriya district of northwestern Baghdad as people were going to evening prayers at the end of the daily Ramadan fast . . .

BAGHDAD – Police recovered a total of 35 bodies, mostly bound and tortured, in Baghdad in the 24 hours to Wednesday evening . . .

SUWAYRA – Nine bodies were recovered from the Tigris river at Suwayra, 45 km (30 miles) downstream of Baghdad, police said. . .

BAQUBA – A U.S. raid and air strike killed eight people [four of them women], including seven members of one family , and wounded two others in Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) northeast of Baghdad, the U.S. military and police said. The U.S. said the four men in the family of seven were suspected of having links to al Qaeda.

BAGHDAD – A car bomb exploded near a busy market in the mostly Shi’ite district of Bayaa, southwestern Baghdad, killing five people and wounding eight others . . .

BAGHDAD – Nima al-Yaseen, the sister of Shi’ite member of parliament Liqaa al-Yaseen, was shot dead on Tuesday as she headed to work in western Baghdad, a spokesman from the politician’s party said.

Al-Zaman [Ar.] has more on the bombing of the family in Baqubah. “A young girl said, weeping, ‘I was inside preparing the meal to break the Ramadan fast. I heard explosions and gunfire, and I ran. When I returned, I found all of my family killed. My father, four women and three men. All of them, including my brother and his pregnant wife. They took to members of our family, a man and a woman, who were wounded.

WaPo says that the new police academy building is a huge disaster and so poorly built that parts may have to be torn down. Sewage is leaking so cadets get feces and urine raining on them.

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Some 60 Dead in Country-Wide Violence
Najaf Assassinations Called Personal, Not Terrorism

al-Hayat reports that [Ar.] the police chief of the Shiite shrine city of Najaf is admitting a high rate of assassinations in the city. But he says that after investigation, they mostly appear to be a matter of personal feuds and score-settling and are not terror-related (i.e. Sunni Arab infiltrators are not coming in to kill Shiites.)

Some of the assassinations reported in Najaf and Karbala have been of ex-Baathist officials, so that is part of the score-settling.

The increase in the murder rate in Najaf has not been reported in the Western press or wire services.

Reuters reports nearly 60 deaths from political violence in Iraq on Tuesday. Major incidents:

‘ BAGHDAD – The bodies of five people, shot in the head and bearing signs of torture, were found in different areas of Baghdad, a source in the Interior Ministry said. . .

BAGHDAD – A motorcycle exploded near restaurants in al-Andalus square in central Baghdad, killing four people and wounding 18, a source in the Interior Ministry said.

BAGHDAD – Three civilians were killed and 21 wounded, including 12 policemen, when a car bomb and a roadside bomb exploded in quick succession in eastern Zayouna district of Baghdad, a source in the Interior Ministry said.

MAHMUDIYA – A roadside bomb killed five people and wounded eight in Mahmudiya, police said. . .

KUT – A spokesman for the political movement of Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in Wasit province said seven of its Mehdi Army militiamen were killed and 18 posted as missing, along with nine wounded, after an airstrike on the village of Sayafiya, west of Suwayra and 50 km (30 miles) south of Baghdad early on Tuesday. The spokesman, Hameed al-Zargani, said the Mehdi Army was engaged in a gunbattle with unidentified gunmen when bombs fell on the village. The U.S. military, the only force with such air power in Iraq, had no immediate comment. ‘

The al-Qaeda figure Omar Faruq, killed in Basra by British troops, had come there to see his sick mother, according to al-Sharq al-Awsat.

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