Informed Comment

7 US Troops Killed
Bombing kills 13 in Baghdad, 40 Bodies Found
Massive Anti-War Protest on Mall in DC

It was announced Saturday that 7 US soldiers have been killed by guerrillas deploying roadside bombs in the past 3 days.

I cannot see any sign in this Reuters roundup of violence in Iraq on Saturday that guerrillas in Baghdad are lying low or relocating in expectation of the arrival of further US troops.

Police gathered the usual macabre harvest of 40 tortured bodies in the capital. Guerrillas cheekily fired rockets into the Green Zone, the US HQ in Iraq. They detonated car bombs in one neighborhood, killing 13 and wounding 43. Guerrillas dressed as special police commandos kidnapped 8 persons from a computer store downtown. In Diyala province, guerrillas attempting to elude US troops were bombed to death by the US from the air. In Ramadi, a member of the Iraqi National Congress, a secular party headed by Ahmad Chalabi, was kidnapped and killed.

In the US, tens of thousands of protesters gathered at the Mall in a major rally against the Iraq War.

That event was not the only reminder of the Vietnam era. Senator John Warner, a former secretary of the Navy, remembers with regret not having spoken out more forcefully during the Vietnam War, when the generals kept coming and saying they just needed another increas of 10,000 troops to win this thing.

Iraq much more than Vietnam can only be settled through political negotiation, as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi told Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki on Friday. It is unlikely that the extra troops the US has available could prevail in the sense of bringing order to the country or even just the capital (see the opening paragraph for what such order does not look like).

Tehran is trying to control the flow of thousands of Shiite pilgrims into Iraq for the commemoration on Tuesday of the martyrdom of al-Husayn, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. Husayn’s tomb is at Karbala in Iraq, a holy site for Iran’s some 62 million Shiites. My advice to the US military is not to try to kill or capture these thousands of Iranian pilgrims even if some of them may be spies–whatever Bush says. Shiites are touchy during Muharram, especially about infidels killing or capturing them in their own holy land, where they don’t think the infidels have any business being in the first place.

The US is building an alliance with 50 tribal sheikhs in Ramadi. The US military reports good results in the sense that entire neighborhoods controlled by Sunni militants are now rare. But the radical Salafis clearly still have a presence in the city, and tribal sheikhs are notoriously factional and fickle. I’d say that is a check that may well bounce. The larger problem is that people in Ramadi just don’t want US troops there, and don’t want Shiite or Kurdish troops there, either. To the extent that the sheikhs are successful in authorizing and allowing the recruitment of local police, that might be a real achievement. On this one, I’m from Missouri (i.e., “show me!”).

The Bush administation upbraided Japanese Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma who called Bush’s war on Iraq on the basis of its possession of WMD a “mistake”. Isn’t that just common knowledge? Why protest such an obvious statement? The new Abe government is rapidly slipping in the polls at home, and is presumably more afraid of the Japanese public than it is of Bush, who owes the Japanese a lot of money. A big majority of Japanese in polls opposed the extension of the Japanese Self Defense Forces mission in Samawa, Iraq, which was therefore withdrawn. Bush has fewer friends abroad with every passing day. Aznar of Spain, Berlusconi of Italy, Koizumi in Japan– who used to run interference for him– are all gone.

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Dabbous Guest Editorial: Getting Home in Beirut

My View from our Sunni-Beiruti Neighbourhood

Eugène Richard Sensenig-Dabbous

‘For those of you who know Beirut, I drove from my office at the Maronite Catholic Notre Dame University Zouk Mosbeh up the hill from Jounieh) Thursday, via Sassine Square to Sodeco/Damascus Street at the north-western edge of predominantly Eastern Orthodox Achrefieh, on my way home from work. Crossing Bechara El Khoury Avenue (where his statue stands) I wanted to traverse this major metropolitan intersection in order to drive straight towards Basta and ultimately reach Mar Elias Street, which I call home. The police wouldn’t allow me to drive forward and they didn’t have a clue what a resident should do.

So I did what many say was the worst possible thing, I must have had a guardian angel or God was watching over this lost soul; I turned left down Bechara El Khoury Avenue toward Barbir and then took the first available right turn, hoping to drive to the main road above the Salim Slem highway tunnel, which leads to the Sports Centre and the Rafic Hariri International Airport; and of course to the predominantly Shi’ia, Hizbollah controlled, suburban towns called Dahiyeh.

Burning all bridges

I drove right into street fighting in Barbour & Wata Mossaitbe, hardcore Amal territory. Looking up the streets I crossed, as I drove in the direction of Mar Elias Street and Mossaitbe proper, I could see burning tires at both ends of these streets. In this pocket of Shi’ia minority population, an island in a larger Sunni sea of humanity, people looked as scared as everyone I had seen in my neighbourhood, as they were terrorising us the previous Tuesday. I guess in the end it really doesn’t matter “who started it!”

I parked my semi-new, but very dirty Toyota Corolla in front of the Sunni mosque above the Salim Slem highway tunnel; I couldn’t drive into Mossaitbe because guys with yellow scarves were blocking the access roads. So I walked home, past the large Baptist School and the inconspicuous Shi’ia Husseinnyah (prayer centre). Dima wasn’t home; she was out getting the army and local Sunni vigilantes to find me. These young boys are primitively armed with broom sticks and wooden flag poles, baseball bats haven’t caught on yet in this otherwise very trendy country, thank God!

We then gave a young fighter (who turned out to be Shi’ia) my car keys and begged him to go up on his motor scooter and retrieve my car. He came back 10 minutes later, having traversed the various road blocks. As night fell and the curfew was introduced, Dima and I were safe at home and her daughter Farah was at her grandparents, only 5 blocks away, but not within reach because she would have had to cross Mar Elias Street. The Syrian and Palestinian snipers, who many claim have been brought into town by the Ba’ath Party and the Damascus secret service, in order to kill indiscriminately and thus lead us all to another civil war, were shooting at civilians on Mar Elias Street, so you didn’t want to be out on foot either.

What is to be done?

It’s now Saturday morning and we have had a full day of “normality,” i.e. guarded peace or at least no immediate threat of open violence. I have been asking around about what the next step could be, in order that none of the conflicting parties loses face and we can return to our jobs, be with our families and help develop this amazingly thriving country and ensure that it reaches its full potential. Nobody seems to know. Most are still concentrating on the blame game. I guess you can indeed teach young dogs old tricks.

I suggest that those of us who are of good faith and actually care about all the people of this country, concentrate on things that can be dealt with immediately and solved in the foreseeable future. These include 1) a debate on the Draft Election Law of 31 May 2006; 2) a movement to enforce the already existing regulations on quarrying stone, gravel and sand (so closely linked to the re/construction industry); and 3) discussing the social implications of the Paris III agreement for the middle classes and working poor. These three issues are all largely technical and affect the overwhelming majority of the population equally. Let’s allow doing hard work and re-establishing cooperation be the litmus test to determine who really cares about Lebanon. ‘

Greetings from Mossaitbe,

Eugen Dabbous

Professor Eugène Richard Sensenig-Dabbous, MA PhD
sensenig a_t_ cyberia d o t net d o t lb

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Gul: A Partitioned Iraq Means “Endless War”
Bombings, Killings in Baghdad Leave 50 Dead

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul is warning the US not to just leave Iraq in chaos, allowing a civil war that leads to partitioning the country– a situation that he says will lead to “endless war.” Gul is right about all that. If Iraq breaks up, it will undo the post- WW I Lausanne settlement altogether and open all the cans of worms in the Middle East at once. He says it might draw Turkey into Iraq. But it would also draw Iran and Saudi Arabia in.

Bombing of a Shiite mosque in Mosul during the beginning of the month of Muharram, the most sacred 10 days of the Shiite ritual calendar: Not good.

McClatchy wire service reports that 27 bodies were found in Baghdad on Friday.

In the western Baghdad districts of Shurta, Khamsa, Rai and Muwasalat, Iraqi police and guerrillas fought running street battles.

Guerrillas detonated a bomb at Alawi al-Hilla in downtown Baghdad, killing 2 Iraqi soldiers and injuring 14 other persons.

Clashes in and around Muqdadiyah in Diyala Province east of Baghdad left several people dead and dozens injured. In Barwana and Thiyaba villages outside the city took deadly mortar fire.

Reuters reports on political violence on Friday in Iraq. A bombing of the Ghazil pet market in Baghdad killed 15 and wounded 55.

Another bombing near a Shiite mosque killed 2.

Another US GI was killed at Fallujah.

There were other assassinations and bombings around the country.

Bush says US troops are authorized to “kill or capture” suspected Iranian intelligence agents operating in Iraq. Thousands of Iranians go in and out of Iraq as pilgrims to the Shiite holy sites, so personally I’m skeptical you can know which ones are spies. And, like, it wouldn’t be good to kill the pilgrims. Might cast the US in a bad light with the Shiites and all that. I’d say this man is looking for a pretext for another war.

Plus, when you look at where US troops are being killed, it is in Sunni Arab al-Anbar Province, and Sunni Arab Salahuddin, Diyal, Mosul, and West Baghdad. Those Sunni guerrillas are not being helped by Iran. They are being helped by Sunnis in countries allied to the US.

And then, the US hold over 10,000 prisoners swept up on suspicion of insurgent activity in Iraq. What number of them is Iranians? Slim to none. More Syrians and Jordanians and Saudis by far than Iranians.

So if 99 percent of the problem is with the Sunni Arabs of Iraq, why all this big talk about Shiite Iran?

Because this man is looking for a pretext for another war.

Tom Engelhardt says that the rural areas of the US are paying the price of the Iraq War.

AP is reporting new details on the killing of 5 US troops in an operation that began at Karbala a few days ago. The troops were helping plan security precautions to stop Shiite pilgrims being blown up during the Muharram commemorations of the martyrdom of the Prophet’s grandson, al-Husayn. Guerrillas dressed in US uniforms and speaking English showed up, infiltrated the building, killed a GI, and captured 4 others, taking them to Mahawil in Babil province, and then executing them there.

Mahawil, a mixed Sunni-Shiite city, is a Sunni Arab guerrilla arena of action, and it now seems likely to me that this was a Sunni Arab operation aimed at harming security arrangements. Shiite Mahdi Army ghetto militiamen don’t know English. If I were in charge of Karbala, I’d put extra extra security around the city for Tuesday’s Ashura commemoration of Imam Husayn’s martyrdom. The only thing I can’t figure out is that it clearly was an inside job, and so how would there have been Sunni Arab guerrilla sympathizers at this police and army meeting at Shiite Karbala. Maybe mixed units were involved?

This is a good roundup of the week’s events in Iraq. That only 160 of 275 members of parliament were present for the vote on al-Maliki’s security plan is incredible. That is barely a quorum (a simple majority is 138) for perhaps the most important vote parliament will take this year.

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Karrada Bombing kills 26, 40 Bodies Found
Maliki Threatens Sunni MP

Reuters reports on political violence in Iraq’s ongoing civil war.

In Baghdad:

*Police found 40 bodies on Thursday, most of them showing signs of torture.

*Guerrillas set off a car bomb in a shopping district of the Karrada neighborhood of downtown Baghdad, killing 26 persons and wounding 40.

*Guerrillas detonated a car bomb in the Muraidi market of Sadr City (Shiite east Baghdad), killing one person and wounding 13.

*Guerillas fired rockets into the Green Zone in central Baghdad, site of the US embassy and Iraqi government offices. The attack seriously wounded one person and lightly injured 5 others. The Green Zone has often taken mortar fire, but seldom has suffered casualties. That nearly 4 years into the war, the US HQ in Iraq is subjected to rocket fire just underlines how helpless Gulliver is before the supposed Lilliputians.

Guerrillas set off other bombs in Baghdad, some of which killed as many as 4 persons. There were also bombings in Tal Afar and Fallujah, and violence in several other cities.

The NYT reports that PM Nuri al-Maliki presented his security plan to parliament for approval. Sunni Arabs claimed that the plan punished Sunnis and let Shiite militias off the hook. In the course of the debate, he got into a shouting match with a Sunni Arab MP, Abdul Nasser al-Janabi, whom he then accused of being directly involved in the kidnapping of 150 persons from his district.. The PM threatened to release information about the man. The speaker of the house Mahmoud al-Mashahani tried to call for order, then threatened to resign, himself. In the end, the plan was passed by parliament, but only after an ugly scene in which Sunni-Shiite conflict and resentments erupted.

Al-Janabi is a member of the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni fundamentalists). Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that after the meeting, al-Janabi attempted to approach al-Maliki, but the security would not let him get close.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Sadr Movement of Muqtada al-Sadr gave its unstinting support to al-Maliki’s security plan. It was speculated that this step is an attempt to avoid a confrontatation with US forces. The London daily also confirms that the Sadrists have appointed a negotiator to talk directly to the Americans on behalf of the commanders of the Mahdi Army militia. It says that some Mahdi Army commanders have scattered to Kut, Babil and Taji or even to neighboring countries, and that al-Maliki has avoided having to choose between his American partners and his Sadrist allies by convincing the Mahdi Army to fade away for the moment. It says US ambassador in Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad expressed concern that gunmen in Iraq may go into hiding during the US “surge,” and then reappear when it is over.

I think that is what Gen. Abizaid tried to warn about when he argued against an escalation.

Iraq is in talks with Chevron and Exxon regarding the building of a $3 bn. oil facility.

When I said that the attack on the US embassy in Athens would prove to have something to do with the Amerian war in Iraq, there were those that scoffed.

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Battle at Haifa Street kills 30
Senate Foreign Relations Committee rejects Escalation

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted 12 to 9 for a non-binding resolution condemning the Bush administration’s escalation of the war. All but one of the 10 Republicans on the committee voted against it. The dissenter was Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.

US forces with some Iraqi army accompaniment fought a pitched battle with Sunni Arab guerrillas at Haifa street just north of the Green Zone that houses government offices and the US embassy. They killed thirty persons whom they identified as “insurgents”.

That Iraqi guerrillas killed 3 more US troops was announced on Wednesday.

Reuters reports on political violence in Iraq on Wednesday:

* Police found 33 bodies in Baghdad. Several showed signs of having been tortured.

*Guerrillas clashed with Iraqi army troops in Suwayra 25 miles south of the capital. 3 soldiers are said to be missing.

Iraqi Shiites rejected Bush’s comparison of Iraqi Shiite militias to al-Qaeda. They said that the militias are mainly neighborhood protection committees, not a global terrorist organization aimed at the US.

Patrick Cockburn of the Independent continues his indispensable and clear-eyed reporting from Iraq with this piece on the paralysis of Baghdad. Major points:

*The crew of the Blackwater helicopter may have survived being shot down, but then they appear to have been executed on the ground.

*The toney al-Mansur district of Baghdad is now too dangerous to visit and its posh restaurants have long been closed.

*Baghdad residents are being shanghaied into militia service.

*Baquba is very dangerous but is not addressed in the Bush Baghdad/al-Anbar escalation plan.

The Palestinians, kicked out of their own country by groups like the Stern Gang, are now being kicked out of Iraq. The Palestinians are a homeless nation.

The average percentage by which esteem for the US fell in a BBC poll of publics in 25 country was 7%, i.e. from 36% to 29% in just a couple of years. In the late Clinton period, 75 percent of Indonesians reported that they held the US in high regard. It is now less than 30%.

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Iraqi Television on Bush’s State of the Union

It is odd that US media seem completely uninterested in how Bush’s State of the Union speech was received in Iraq, where half of it would be implemented. The Open Source Center of the US Government did a report on this issue, below. Note that former Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari says that Iraq does not need the 21,500 US troops Bush is planning to send. Jaafari worked closely with the Americans as prime minister and his views should be considered. The report follows:

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Iraqi TVs’ Treatment of President Bush’s State of the Union Address
Iraq — OSC Report
Thursday, January 25, 2007 T01:06:19Z . . .

Cairo Al-Rafidayn Satellite Channel in Arabic — Pro-Sunni, anti-US Iraqi channel believed to be affiliated with the Association of Muslim Scholars;

Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic — government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network;

Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah Satellite Television in Arabic — Private Iraqi television known for its opposition to the US presence in Iraq;

Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic — Independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa’d al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic-language daily Al-Zaman; and

Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Television in Arabic — television channel believed to be sponsored by the Iraqi Islamic Party

– are observed on 24 January to report and react to President Bush’s State of the Union Address as follows:

Al-Rafidayn TV: During its 1600 GMT news summary, following a six-minute security roundup, Al-Rafidayn Satellite Channel carries the following report: “Democrats in Congress have accused US President George Bush of demonstrating recklessness by involving the United States in the war in Iraq. In a harsh response to his State of the Union address, they called for withdrawing US troops from Iraq. In his address, Bush urged the Americans to give a chance for what he called his new strategy in Iraq. Bush deemed early withdrawal from Iraq a nightmare for the United States, as he put it, claiming that such a step would serve Washington’s enemies. The US president affirmed his determination to continue with his strategy of promoting what he called democracy in the Middle East, considering it a critical element in the war on what he calls terror.”

Al-Iraqiyah TV: Following a security roundup and other local news, Al-Iraqiyah Television at 1713 GMT carries the following report: “In his State of the Union address, US President George Bush reiterated his support for the national unity government and his willingness to support it in all areas. He also urged the Senate leaders to back his Iraq plan, particularly the part of the plan pertaining to Baghdad, to protect it from terrorists.”

This is followed by a report by Ali Shakkur, Al-Iraqiyah TV correspondent in Washington, who says: “For its part, the Democratic Party expressed its view toward the US president’s speech in a statement read by Senator James Webb, Congressman for the Democratic Party. In the statement, the party members expressed their concern over the president’s new policy on Iraq, saying that this war hurt the reputation of the United States and squandered many opportunities to defeat world terror.”

Shakkur continues: “The latest opinion polls published in US newspapers indicated a decline in the approval ratings of the US president, as 64 percent of the American people do not support the way the Bush administration is managing the country’s affairs.”

Immediately afterward, Al-Iraqiyah TV newsreader Thamir al-Shammari reads the following report: “The reactions of Iraqi politicians to the address of US President George Bush have varied. A member of the Council of Representatives affirmed that Iraq needs support for its troops as well as intelligence information more than it needs an increase in the number of (US) troops in Iraq.”

Then, former Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Ja’fari is shown saying: “In my assessment, we do not necessarily need an increase in the strength (of US forces). We are not engaged in a conventional war against an invading army or something of the sort. We are facing terrorist actions which can be handled by precise security operations, by upgrading the security performance, and by getting the necessary information and intelligence data.”

Al-Shammari adds: “Another member of the Council of Representatives affirmed that Iraq is not suffering from religious extremism. However, there are parties that seek to make gains using the Iraq question.
Then, Iraqi MP Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir is shown saying: “What I would like to say is that victory against terror cannot be achieved by sloganeering; rather, certain mechanisms and policies that are indicative of a proper diagnosis of terror must be adopted. The war on terror must be waged based on this diagnosis and knowledge. Unfortunately, US policies have been driven by what it knows about terrorism, not by what is happening in Iraq.”

At 1726 GMT, Al-Iraqiyah TV carries a live satellite interview with Alberto Fernandez, director of the Office of Press and Public Diplomacy in the Bureau of Near East Affairs at the US Department of State, in Washington, speaking in Arabic, on President Bush’s State of the Union address. Fernandez says that “there is a sort of consensus on the importance of Iraq, and the importance of making progress in Iraq.” He plays down reports on “differences between the US Administration and the Iraqi Government.”

Al-Baghdadiyah TV: At 1513 GMT, following a few reports on security developments and local news items, Al-Baghdadiyah Satellite Television carries the following report: “US President George Bush has urged the American people and his adversaries in Congress to give his plan to dispatch 21,500 additional troops a chance for success. In his annual State of the Union address at a joint session of both houses of the US Congress, Bush said that the United States is pursuing a new strategy in Iraq. He called for giving this strategy a chance for success.”

In a follow-up report, the TV channel says: “Bush affirmed that Al-Maliki’s government should honor the undertakings it has taken upon itself, warning it that the US commitment to Iraq is not open-ended.”

Al-Sharqiyah Channel: During its 1400 GMT, 1600 GMT, and 1900 GMT newscasts, Al-Sharqiyah was observed to repeat the same factual report that was carried in earlier newscasts. No commentaries or reactions were carried.

Baghdad Channel: Baghdad Channel was observed at 1628 GMT to carry an announcer-read report over video on the comments of Abbas al-Bayyati, representative of the Unified Iraqi Coalition in the Iraqi Council of Representatives, on the State of the Union address.

The report says: “Member of the Iraqi Coalition Abbas Al-Bayyati has said that there was nothing new in Bush’s speech which was delivered yesterday. He noted the importance of providing the Iraqi Government with the needed support to enable it achieve stability.

(Begin Al-Bayyati recording) There is nothing much in Bush’s speech; the US strategy was announced prior to this speech. Perhaps the speech was primarily meant to address the domestic audience, because it has the tone and marks of the democrats, whose voices have begun to grow louder.

We believe that supporting the current national unity government will enable it to carry out its duties and mission. Therefore, we cannot be pressured to do certain actions. We need support to do them.” (end recording)

This report was followed by a repeat of the factual report that was carried in earlier newscasts . . .

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Another Helicopter Downed, 5 Americans Dead
Mahdi Army Pledges not to Respond to US Arrests

Sunni Arab guerrillas used some sort of surface to air rocket or missile a heavy PKC machine gun of a sort the US has trained the Iraqi Army in to shoot down a Blackwater helicopter guarding a high-level US ground convoy.* This downing of a helicopter is the second such attack in the past few days. See Today in Iraq.

Guerrillas (probably Shiite militiamen) wounded 7 British troops in Basra on Tuesday with bombings or mortar attacks.

In Baghdad and Mosul, a further 45 persons were killed by new violence or showed up dead in the streets, and US forces killed a further 16 in clashes. Guerrillas detonated five car bombs in the capital, including one in the Karrada district. Some districts of Mosul, according to al-Zaman, witnessed pitched battles most of the afternoon on Tuesday. Al-Sharq al-Awsat says that guerrillas in Mosul killed 5 policemen and wounded 3.

US and Iraqi troops launched an operation in the Sunni Adhamiya district of Baghdad.

Reuters reports a US firefight with guerrillas at Ramadi, guerrilla attacks in the supposedly pacified cities of Fallujah and Tal Afar, and killings and assassinations in a wide number of Iraqi cities.

US forces have captured some 600 Mahdi Army militiamen since the current push against guerrilla violence began.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that leaders of the Mahdi Army are saying they will not retaliate for the arrests. Baha’ al-A’raji, a Sadrist MP, said that the followers of young Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr would not stand against the Baghdad security plan.

Oh, great. Now Bush’s Iraq War is in danger of destabilizing Pakistan, too.

Representative Walter Jones (R-NC) will introduce a bill forbidding Bush from undertaking military action against Iran without Congressional authorization. Good for him! Maybe someday we’ll get our Constitition back.

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*Thanks to readers who corrected this point and provided additional information.

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