Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Green Zone Takes Rocket Fire
New Offer of Jobs to Baathists


Guerrillas fired a rocket into the Green Zone on Monday, shaking the US Embassy and Iraqi government offices but causing no casualties.

Iraq's foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, has weighed in with Tehran to release 15 British sailors and Marines captured in what the Iranians claim were their territorial waters. Zebari says that they British were in Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government and in accordance with UNSC resolutions, and were operating in Iraqi waters.

Former UK Ambassador to Uzbekistan Craig Murray called for the immediate release of the British sailors, but admitted that the Iranians had a legal case for objecting to their activities. They were in disputed waters and checking for smuggled automobiles. Murray can't figure out how automobile smuggling in the Persian Gulf is any of the business of the British navy. He says it would be different if they had been checking on arms smuggling.

(Murray in a more recent posting points out that the
BBC reported that British scientists concluded that the Lancet report of last fall finding 600,000 excess violent deaths in Iraq since the Bush/Blair invasion was based on 'best practice.' The Blair government denounced the study when it appeared and seems to have buried the scientists' report, which it requested.)

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and President Jalal Talabani will put forward new legislation offering an amnesty program for Baath officials. If they come in from the cold within 3 months, they can be restored to high office. The Debaathification Commission, headed by corrupt financier Ahmad Chalabi and on which Nuri al-Maliki played the role of hardliner earlier on, had excluded such figures from a role in public life. The problem is that the mere announcement of a three-month amnesty is highly unlikely to bring in from the cold the people who are now heading the Sunni Arab guerrilla movements. And, at a time when security is so bad that the vice premier is blown up with the connivance of his own security guards (and tribesmen), it can't be a pleasant prospect to be a Baathist branded as collaborator. AP suggests that the real motive for the measure is twofold. First, its announcement may take some pressure off the Iraqi government at this week's Arab League summit, where, as Iraqslogger notes, a draft proposal is said to urge abolition of the 'Debaathification Commission' and disbanding of Shiite militias. Second, rehabilitating the Baathists and being nicer to the Sunni Arabs is the platform on which former appointed Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has been campaigning to form a new political bloc-- a campaign that has been met with some favor in neighboring Sunni Arab states and Egypt.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert put his foot in his mouth by saying that US troops should stay in Iraq, otherwise the resulting chaos might cause the Hashemite monarchy of Jordan to fall. Jordan has a peace treaty with Israel and puts up with Israeli colonization of the West Bank even while condemning it-- i.e. Jordan functions as a de facto ally of Israel. Olmert sees its potential loss as a threat to Israeli security. The Jordanians are hopping mad about Olmert's comments. They see their regime as perfectly stable, whereas they wonder how long Olmert's government can last, with only 2% of Israelis expressing trust in him in polls. And, the Jordanians believe that the real threat to regional security is Israel's steadfast refusal to grant the Palestinians their own state within recognized and viable borders.

What the Jordanians are not saying, but is worth saying, is that if chaos in Iraq was a threat to the stability of Israel's neighbors and therefore to Israel itself, it was foolish for Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert to act as cheerleaders for an Iraq War back in 2002 and early 2003. War has unpredictable consequences. Olmert is wrong about the fragility of the Hashemite monarchy, but is right-- too late!-- that the violence in Iraq may well rebound against Israel.

Sunni Arab politicians meeting in Amman, Jordan are critical of the draft Iraqi petroleum law that has been presented to parliament by the Iraqi cabinet. The Monday Morning (Beirut) article contains these quotes:


' Faleh al-Khayat, a former head of planning at the Oil Ministry, warned that “major foreign oil firms are greedy and will covet Iraq’s oil wealth” if the bill is adopted. “If Iraq’s giant oilfields are developed, they would yield 80 percent of Iraq’s proven reserves estimated at 115 billion barrels”, he argued.

MP Saleh Mutlak of Iraq’s National Dialogue Front echoed him: “We have no need of foreign companies. We’re experienced enough to reap the fruit of our wealth”. Mutlak also said he feared the bill may not live up to government hopes that it will unify Iraq. “We don’t want a new law that will further divide us. We need a law that will unite the Iraqi people”. . . Motlak said Parliament in Baghdad should not ratify the bill “until we reach the appropriate climate for investments in Iraq”.

MP Ali Mashhadani agreed. “Our oil wealth is black gold that must be kept underground until security conditions are appropriate to take advantage of it. It has been entrusted to our safekeeping by the people we represent”. According to Mashhadani “Iraq has sold 125 billion dollars’ worth of oil since the start of the US-led occupation.” The Iraqi people have not benefited from this revenue and “are eating garbage”, Mashhadani said, suggesting that income from oil sales be given to the people in the form of state-subsidized “monthly ration cards” . . .


Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Monday, including guerrillas' use of a roadside bomb in Zaafaraniya, Baghdad, to kill one policeman and wound 3 others. The report also says, 'A curfew was imposed in the town of Iskandariya 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad after clashes erupted between gunmen and security forces, police said. Mortars also landed in a central residential district, killing two and wounding four. ' In central Baghdad, a bombing killed 2 and wounded 5.

Sean Penn at an antiwar rally in San Francisco:

"Let's make this crystal clear: We do support our troops, but not the exploitation of them and their families. The money that's spent on this war would be better spent on building levees in New Orleans and health care in Africa and care for our veterans. Iraq is not our toilet. It's a country of human beings whose lives that were once oppressed by Saddam are now in 'Dante's Inferno.' "


Tom Engelhardt on how Americans are not actively protesting a war that opinion polls show them to widely oppose.

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14 Comments:

At 7:23 AM, Blogger Spin proof said...

It is worth pointing out that the oil majors will not be interested in taking advantage of the myriads of loopholes in the new law.

The problem for them is that they have to invest billions now in the hope that no future government will nationalize the oil industry. The likelihood of nationalization is extremely high, however.

The second problem is that they can be made liable to the death and suffering caused by the loss of income by the poor Iraqis. This is exacerbated by the fact that Iraq is under US occupation.

The third problem is the rampant insurgency. It will be extremely difficult for the oil majors to persuade their experienced staff to go to Iraq, the main objective of the Iraqis who have plenty of less experienced staff.

Minor oil companies will be very interested in getting oil rights to sell to the majors later on, at a magnificent markup. But that will make the legal case against them even stronger, so the majors will not buy from them.

 
At 8:48 AM, Blogger karlof1 said...

Engelhardt describes what I call the Arrogance of Imperial Deafness that breeds cynicism and defeatism. This is compounded by the same sort of behavior by the Democratic "leadership," which is clearly exposed when Hagel is the one openly talking impeachment. And no matter how hard one tries to not contribute to the System that supports our Empire, our Imperial Way of Life, to paraphrase W.A.Willam's, is so totally integrated that the only way to decouple oneself from it is to become an exile. (For example, the electricity powering your blog and my computer is creating profits for energy corporations to manipulate policy and fund Imperial projects through taxes.) The bigger problem beyond Bush and Cheney is the "American System" of Corporate Socialism and the Syndicalism its spawned, of which they are tools--functionaries. The "War on Terror" and Iraq were perpetrated to facilitate and perpetuate this system.

Fortunately, like all systems, it is subject to the laws of thermodynamics and will eventually die. The billions it kills before then is what we must try to prevent.

 
At 12:38 PM, Blogger Arnold Evans said...

Shouldn't Americans, and relatively liberal Americans at that, be a little less concerned about the prospects of an authoritarian monarchy/dictatorship in Jordan?

For Olmert, the fact that Jordan is more supportive of Israel than a democracy would be, is more important than Jordan's lack of political rights and freedoms.

But should that be the case for any Americans, especially liberals?

Unpopular dictatorships fall, at unexpected times. Iran's Shah probably felt more secure in 1978 than Jordan's king feels today. What does it say about America that this is a prospect used to frighten Americans, rather than a prospect Americans welcome?

Why should the people of Jordan, and also the people of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Kuwait, etc. not be able to vote on their relationships with Israel and with the United States?

 
At 1:54 PM, Blogger Andrew Kerr said...

BBC News link on the 2006 Lancet study:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6495753.stm

 
At 4:40 PM, Blogger Wild Bill said...

This British/Iranian incident has the eerie feel of an attempt at a "tonkin" incident. I expect the Iranians think by seizing the sailors and detaining them that they can expose such. Or, perhaps it is rivalries among the Iranians. In any event, it would not seem useful for them to drag out this incident, unless they are confident that the evidence will show the Brits were actually in Iranian waters.

Engelhardt's piece, unfortunately, shows one reason why the "antiwar" movement has failed continually. It is now firmly and resolutely a leftist enterprise, and, therefore, alienated from and unknowledgeable of the middle American public which is essentially patriotic, nationalist and conservative (small c). The Vietnam war ended because of ordinary Americans turning against the war, not because of agitators (although they live on in their own mythology).

Perhaps it's unavoidable, as Engelhardt seems to assert, that the public face of war opposition is the "professional" agitators. But, the fact is, the most successful antiwar movements in the US history were essentially conservative, Pres. Adams' resistance to agitation for war with France, and the America First movement that successfully prevented US entry into the European war prior to Pearl Harbor. The AFC harnessed middle American conservatives against interventionism along with urban socialists. Unfortunately, it is difficult to raise that opposition when it is facing provocation from the War Party (as with the Lusitania incident, Tonkin, and Maine in 1898).

The AFC was a very broad movement running from Norman Thomas to Robert Taft. Perhaps its impossible to have such a movement today because the cultural fissures that are so apparent today did not exist then in any obvious way. Still, I can't help but think rekindling that type of movement is the only way to stop this current war and prevent another one in Iran. (The smear book against Lindbergh by Philip Roth several years ago shows the War Party recognizes the threat to its machine from a revived AFC-like coalition of American patriots across the ideological spectrum).

 
At 4:45 PM, Blogger janinsanfran said...

While I am sure you are right that the Hashemite monarchy in Jordan is stable, one of the chief things I learned on a visit there last summer was how widespread and visceral was rejection of its defacto alliance with Israel. Prosperous, completely Western-identified Jordanians were very ready to say, "we shouldn't have that peace treaty." It is only the, relatively restrained, repressive apparatus of the state that keeps Jordan calm. Adding a million Iraqi refugees is undoubtedly a strain on an already strained situation.

 
At 7:42 PM, Blogger Alamaine said...

DER SPIEGEL 13/2007 - March 26, 2007
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,473987,00.html
WANTED FOR WAR CRIMES
Rumsfeld Lawsuit Embarrasses German Authorities

By Ulrike Demmer

 
At 7:53 PM, Blogger Alamaine said...

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/mar2007/garz-m27.shtml
World Socialist Web Site www.wsws.org
WSWS : News & Analysis : Europe : Spain
Spanish Judge calls for architects of Iraq invasion to be tried for war crimes By Vicky Short 27 March 2007

 
At 9:00 PM, Blogger Spin proof said...

Tom Engelhardt's nice posting is too pessimistic. There has been a steady "reality creep" in the USA since the invasion. Early on, no member of Congress dared "stabbing the troops in the back" by being critical of Bush. Look now!

Rome and Britian didn't just decide to quit. They went through the same painfully slow retreat. Then they quit, as the Americans did in Vietnam. That is how it works.

Leaving few troops in Iraq is not only wrong, it can't be done. They will continue to be attacked, more fiercely the longer they stay. So the troops either have to go back to maximum level to defend themselves, or quit.

The other fundamental issue is the now universally accepted wisdom: there is no military solution. To get reconciliation going, America's Iraqi friends who are now stalling must know that the Americans are leaving them to face the music, so they must learn how to treat the rest of the Iraqis as equals, to survive. Now, reconciliation means the end of the pro-US Iraq. Period. And as such, the troops will be asked to leave by the government and parliament, and the troops will have to leave.

 
At 9:37 PM, Blogger John Koch said...

The Green Zone is presumably all but sealed, inshallah, against car bombs. Mortar or small rocket attacks might have limited effect, but be hard to prevent. Are reports of them rare because they are rare, because they are too common and incidental to be newsworthy, or because the press corps abides by a rule against "loose lips"?

Sean Penn has enough money not to worry about security, and at least a few eccentric moguls will still cast him in some movie. Most other people work for firms owned or run by people who read the WSJ, vote and donate to the GOP, have no kin in the military of enlisted rank, have no qualms about permanent bases in Iraq or assigning oil rights to US firms, and who would be incensed to learn that an employee was arrested or appeared on camera at an anti-war protest. Tom Engelhardt fails to note that some 60s protests were infiltrated by plainclothesmen and provocateurs. The former spotted, photographed, and set up files on leaders. The latter instigated violence, foul language, or bizzare actions that disgraced the protestors. Why suppose that Dick, Karl, or Alberto would be any less restrained than Nixon?

An unfortunate self-affliction marring such protests, then and now, is the profanity and abundant use of swastikas and the "fascist" epithet on anti-Bush posters and effigies. Marginal parties also insert issues other than the war into their chants and placards. Fox News could ask for nothing better as a means to ridicule the events.

To write ones Senators and Congressmen is supposed to be a good thing, but the staff probably must spend most time answering contributor or VIP correspondence or the daily constituent requests for flags flown over the Capitol. Do not be dismayed if you get an auto-response with warm thanks for supporting our valiant president and the goal of victory.

"Town meeting" assemblies where Congressmen visit constituents may be the most potent way to get a legislator's attention, but be forwarned that other lobbies and pleaders may pack the audience, and Q&A sessions are often curtailed if the Congressman has to hurry to a fundraising dinner. If your representative is pro-war, also expect a short attention span and a well-rehearsed rebuttal. For instance, Iowa 5th District Congressman King will tell you about his Iraq trip and about the soldier who pleaded, tears in his eyes, to "stay the course" so that his children would not have to fight al Qaeda, disguised as Mexicans, in the streets of Sioux City.

Of course, if you play golf or tennis, shoot quail, sail, or fish with your Senator or Congressman, this is a very discrete occasion to confide. An offer to fly him or her somewhere nice on your Falcon jet usually gets a warm response. Amen.

 
At 12:55 AM, Blogger Mike Breton said...

All of the reports regarding Iran's holding of British sailors mention this incident in the context of Iran's quarrel with the UN over its nuclear program, but make no mention of the Iranian diplomats being held by the US or the missing officers from Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Why is that?

I find it difficult to believe that Iran's leaders are dumb enough to believe they can blackmail the UN Security Council in this manner. On the other hand, both Hamas and Hezbollah have used the tactic of kidnapping Israeli soldiers to use as bargaining chips for prisoner exchanges. Does it not seem likely that Iran is attempting the same thing? It even seems possible to me that the British sailors were not simply a target of opportunity (though they might have been). The US is clearly itching for a pretext for a military attack on Iran, but the British are much more loathe to attack. Kidnapping British personnel rather than Americans may very well be a tactic to gain a bargaining chip without giving the US quite the Gulf of Tonkin sort of incident it's itching for.

Is there a reason why I'm wrong in thinking this?

 
At 9:03 AM, Blogger Alamaine said...

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3759
http://www.foreignpolicy.com

The Case Against George W. Bush

By Elizabeth Holtzman

 
At 11:14 AM, Blogger bedblogger said...

Here's the link to Craig Murray's post on the Lancet report into the Iraqi death toll. It is an outrage the UK government continued to dismiss the figures at every oportunity, whilst knowing the figures were robust and, if anything, and underestimation.

Blairwatch also discusses this news and has decent links detaling Blair et al's response to the Lancet report's publlication at the time.

 
At 11:16 PM, Blogger Andrew Kerr said...

The Iran/Iraq maritime border in the map released by the UK Government is described by Craig Murray as "fake".

http://www.craigmurray.co.uk/archives/2007/03/fake_maritime_b.html

 

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