Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Parliament Bomber was Probably Bodyguard;
Turkey Threatens to Invade Iraq;
Wolfowitz Promotes Girlfriend


The bombing of the cafeteria in the Iraqi parliament on Thursday was likely the work of a bodyguard of one of the members of parliament. Who exactly was killed and wounded among the parliamentarians has been a matter of dispute, as Iraqslogger points out in a good overview. MP Muhammad Awadh of the National Dialogue Front, a secular-leaning Sunni Arab list, is the one on which the various reports agree. At least one other MP was killed, either a Kurd or a Shiite. Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that 3 MPs died, and says 30 persons were wounded, some seriously. It identifies the dead as Awadh, along with Taha al-Lahibi of the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front and Niyami al-Miya'i of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. Wire services said that between 10 and 14 MPs were wounded, said to include several members of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance and more Kurds.

Survivors were said to be bloodied and dusty, and to be flicking human body parts off their suits. A video of the bombing is here, courtesy al-Hurra.

There was this spate of headlines about the Iraq parliament bombing that said "Bush condemns Bombing of Iraq Parliament." Why do American journalists do that? Is that really news? Did anyone entertain some doubt as to whether he would be pleased? In my view it is just a way for the White House to influence the news cycle and put a spin on the news (now it is not about how terrible the bombing was, but about Bush's disapproval). I'm not complaining about mentioning the condemnation way down in the article, the way the LA Times did. I mean where you make it the lede and headline. It is this kowtowing by editors to Karl "Benedict Arnold" Rove's spin machine that got us into this mess.

In Middle Eastern autocracies like Syria, the television news will show long clips of the president sitting with some visitor, with the sound off but some music in the background. It seems to go on forever. Stories about Bush's comments on an event like the parliament bombing are the American equivalent of those toadying, lingering camera caresses. Bush is responsible for everything that happens in Iraq, because he created this situation with his greed and ineptitude. If you were going to do a story on his reaction to a bombing in the Green Zone, it should be about how he didn't do enough to stop it. Or, you could ask why he keeps suggesting that there is a moral derangement in the bombers, which explains everything. The bombers aren't just immoral, they are using kamikaze tactics in a political cause (ending the US military presence in their country and dislodging the government set up under US auspices). Diverting attention from their politics to their immorality is a way for Bush to deny that his own political project in Iraq provoked this response.

Just to get a flavor of how "so and so condemns" stories really function, check out "Iranian FM spokeman strongly comdemns bombing Iraqi parliament". Surely Tehran's condemnation is as consequential as Washington's? And surely it is evidence against the silly US allegation of Iranian aid to Sunni Arab guerrillas? (For the real reasons for these absurd allegations coming from Washington, see John Pilger today.)

Al-Hayat also points out that the Sarrafiya Bridge, which was destroyed by a truck bombing on Thursday, had been a symbol of the cosmopolitan character of the capital. It was built by the British in the time of the monarchy (which ended in revolution in 1958). [Update: Al-Hayat was wrong in placing the bridge between Sunni and Shiite neighborhoods; I regret transmitting the error.]

Parliament speaker Mahmud al-Mashhadani, a fundamentalist Sunni, expressed suspicions that the bridge was taken out to isolate the Sunnis of Karkh and Rusafa from one another.

Former Deputy Secretary of Defense and current head of the World Bank, Paul Wolfowitz is personally corrupt. He was corrupt when he tried to turn Iraq over to Ahmad Chalabi, who had been convicted of embezzling $300 million from his own bank. He was corrupt when he pushed the Iraq War with a bunch of phony arguments and the most disgusting campaigns of vilification against anyone who disagreed with him. And he was corrupt when he arranged for his girlfriend, Shaha Riza,* to get enormous wage increases.

Wolfowitz should be fired. After what he did to my country, he has no business in public office, anyway. But he is also just corrupt.

Bush has liberated Salih Rabi'a, all right-- from his 3 children, his wife, and probably to some extent his sanity.

Former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski points out that the Bush administration is paralyzed by the Iraq War; that Bush rules by instilling fear in the public; that Bush intends to dump the problem in the lap of the next president; that the Dems probably can't stop him from doing just that; and that if Bush drags us into a war with Iran, it will tie down the US for 20 years and cripple US global leadership for a generation. Yup, Zbig has nailed it.

Former UN Ambassador Richard Holbrooke condemned the Bush administration for being stingy about letting Iraqis come to the US, whose lives had been put in danger because they worked for the Americans and who have been forced out of Iraq.

The powerful Turkish General Yasar Buyukanit said Thursday that Turkish forces needed to go into northern Iraq after Kurdish PKK guerrillas he believes are being given safe haven there. He said he had not yet submitted a request to parliament for authorization. The Turkish-Iraqi border is now a tinderbox. This is the other shoe in the Iraq conflict.

Buyukanit's comments probably come in response to a recent provocative interview given by Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani.

Buyukanit also slammed US President George W. Bush implicitly, blaming the US for spoiling Barzani: “He [Mr Barzani] is at a very low level and I look to the one who enables him to speak so, who enables the division of Iraq, which is the greatest threat to the region.”

Ben Lando of UPI writes the really important story on Iraq-- the insecurity in Basra and its potential impact on the government in Baghdad. I am quoted:


' Also last week, British troops stationed in the area -- and on the verge of being withdrawn from the country -- were ambushed. Six were killed. Cole said if the British do leave, security in Basra is left to U.S. or Iraqi troops. Cole said he doubts they are up to the job.

"Then Basra could go completely out of control," Cole said. "Security in Basra is shaky. That to the extent it exists at all it's being provided by the British. Were the British to withdraw most of their troops by December under the new Labor (Party) prime minister, it's hard to see how security would be maintained.

"And if it's not maintained then it becomes more and more difficult to export petroleum through Basra and make sure the government actually gets any of the receipts," Cole said. "That would be the end of the Iraqi government." '


The Islamic Army of Iraq has split from the Islamic State in Iraq, which claims to be "al-Qaeda." In guerrilla wars, where you have a lot of guerrilla cells, there are often such splits and red on red violence. This was common in Afghanistan, too. Personally, I doubt it means much for the war. Members of both groups may be feuding, but they still hate the Americans more than they hate each other.

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*I was told by someone somewhere that Shaha Riza's mother had been an Iraqi expatriate from a family that had settled in Tunis. I cannot now verify that and it isn't in the standard internet biographies of her. I cannot even remember how I came into this piece of information. Until someone can nail it down, I retract.

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11 Comments:

At 8:24 AM, Blogger via said...

Not only was Bush quick to 'condemn' the bomber, but equally quick to mention that the same sort of person who would kill innocent life (odd expression, he has used this before) in Iraq is the same person who would come here if Bush wasn't waging war in Iraq to protect us.

 
At 9:18 AM, Blogger Tehseen said...

Dr Cole said, "Yup, Zbig has nailed it"

Brzezinski has the advantage of perfect hindsight, atleast he is not a realist of the Victor Hansen type. Question is, is there a "Cyrus Vance" in the current Bush administration?

 
At 9:30 AM, Blogger COBear said...

Well, you can see the opposite spin approach to the Parliment bombing at www.denverpost.com. They don't even have this as one of the lead stories. You have to dig into the "World" section to find it.

Then, instead of leading with Bush's predictable approval, they lead with a bunch about Al-Qaida claiming the attack, and diverting off into a discussion of which website the claim was posted on and whether its credible.

They generally are using a AP story. And it gets pretty hilarious. It tries to brag about the brave session of parliment held on Friday. But they have to explain that there were more empty seats than MPs. This is where it gets funny, as the AP article tries to blame this on a "friday driving ban" and MPs visiting the wounded from the attack. No mention at all that many MPs aren't even in the country, and I'm sure of the ones who are many wouldn't have dreamed of going anywhere near that building today.

Then, buried deep in the article, there's this one paragraph of interest ... "The breach of security at parliament—along with another bombing the same day that destroyed a bridge across the Tigris river and killed at least 11 people—struck a blow to a two-month-old U.S.-Iraqi effort to pacify the capital. Violence was down slightly in Baghdad, but the crackdown was insufficient to halt Thursday's spectacular attacks. "

That's it ... the article then goes back to some nonsense from a US General that only Al-Qaida uses suicide vests. No further discussion of what's in the above paragraph, and the above paragraphi is the only mention I see of the fact that insurgents also took out a major bridge in Baghdad.

So, lots of propaganda nonsense ... with one interested paragraph buried deep within. I feel like I'm reading an old Soviet newspaper!

 
At 11:50 AM, Blogger Wendy.john said...

Re: Brzezinski's comment that if Bush drags the US into a war with iran, it will tie down the US for 20 years and cripple US global leadership for a generation....

I don't wish a war with Iran. But one has to wonder if maybe this would be a GOOD thing if the so-called US global leadership" WERE crippled.

 
At 1:51 PM, Blogger Arnold Evans said...

When asked by a local reporter about Mr Barzani and Turkey’s alliance with the US, the general said: "He [Mr Barzani] is at a very low level and I look to the one who enables him to speak so, who enables the division of Iraq, which is the greatest threat to the region."

Do the Americans not understand how serious this is?

For the long term, the key situation in Iraq is the quasi-separatist movements of the Kurds and Badr/Shiites.

The only way the US can keep bases in Iraq is by allying with parties that want to split the country. Even the US expert class does not seem to acknowledge what everyone else in the region sees: The US either actively wants to break up the country or is unwilling to take steps to prevent it.

Turkey does not want this. Iran does not want this. Saudi Arabia does not want this. Iraq's nationalists, who probably are a majority in Iraq - Sadr's Shiites and other nationalist Shiites plus the Sunnis - do not want this.

Nobody in the US, including the experts, is willing to make the following statement:

"We would prefer a unified Iraq that is hostile to the US to a divided Iraq where the US can get temporary advantages by playing behind rivalries".

Everybody in the region except the US is emphatically eager to make that statement.

The US refusal to issue a withdrawal schedule or to commit to a full evacuation of US troops from the country is related to the US not being willing to accept a united Iraq that is hostile to the US.

That makes sense. The United States didn't invade Iraq because of personal animus against Hussein, it invaded because it did not want to tolerate a hostile Iraq.

The problem is that the costs of a non-hostile Iraq are clearer now and the cost is very high. The costs are, at minimum, civil war and increased sectarian violence between Shiites and Sunnis (and not just in Iraq) as well as Kurdish independence and support for Kurdish secessionists in Turkey, Iran and Syria.

The United States, by its actions demonstrates that it is willing to pay those costs. Nobody else in the region except Israel thinks it is worth it.

The US alliance with Saudi Arabia has, as far as I can see, been broken over this issue. Recently there have been none of the anti-Iranian official statements or actions from the Saudis that were routine one or two years ago.

The US alliance with Turkey has reached the point where it has not yet broken but it is not sustainable unless the US changes priorities in Iraq.

By changing priorities I mean the US must admit defeat in its project of attempting to make Iraq non-hostile to US interests by force. The longer the US waits to admit defeat, the more hostile Iraq will be toward US interests when it eventually stabilizes.

As things are going, the alliance with Turkey will not survive until the end of the Bush presidency.

 
At 6:17 PM, Blogger ride-winter said...

Regarding the instability in Basra, the quoted article seems to imply that the British withdrawing would be a disaster. If this partial withdrawal is bad, how can Mr. Cole reconcile this with his oft stated solution of withdrawing all US troops in order to force the Iraqis to get along?

 
At 6:35 PM, Blogger Gabriel said...

Professor,

Isn't Shaha Riza an American of Libyan descent? I had previously read your assertion somewhere else, but yesterday when i tried to find it again I couldn't instead the assertion most sites supported was that she was from a Libyan father born in Tripoli, to a Saudi-Syrian mother and raised between Tunisia and Saudi Arabia, here is her wiki.

 
At 10:05 PM, Blogger Christian said...

Two things struck me about this particular bombing: 1) the bomber was a bodyguard of a MP, and 2) it was a suicide bombing. This means that an MP in Iraq is not even able to find a handful of people he can trust, and he probably chooses them among people he knows/in his own clan. It also means that the situation is such that someone with a good paying job (I assume that MPs pay their body-guards quite well, given how critical they are), probably one of the best-paying jobs that an Iraqi citizen can find today, and with an assured future (relatively speaking), decides to blow himself up. One thing is if a desperate 15 year old Palestinian that cannot possibly see a future for himself or his family blows himself up, but if guys in this condition do it, it's a whole different ballpark.

 
At 10:17 PM, Blogger Alan Bostick said...

The Associated Press reports that Turkey's Gen. Buyukanit has requested from Parliament authorization to invade Iraq. Got any advice on who to believe?

 
At 10:35 PM, Blogger Arnold Evans said...

Ride-Winter:

I can't speak for Prof. Cole but I agree that an announced withdrawal of US troops would be beneficial to Iraq and the US. From my own perspective I can answer the question of how to reconcile that with the idea that security may not hold in Basra without the British.

Calls for a withdrawal of US troops is shorthand for calls for withdrawal of coalition troops. That is not just withdrawal of British troops on a bigger scale, that is ending the occupation - putting the Iraqis in the position where they have "won" and expelled the foreigners.

The Shiite nationalists and the Sunnis who are almost all nationalists have a substantial amount of power and resources in Iraq today, though the US is actively (though mostly ineffectively) working to decrease that power and those resources.

If those groups can come together, one element that must necessarily be included is the expulsion of the Americans, but if that already in the schedule, other elements, such as the amount of debaathification and the division of revenues (Sadr is from Baghdad and agrees with the Sunnis that a good amount should stay in the oil-less center) are negotiable.

In other words, the one non-negotiable element that prevents Shiite nationalists from reaching an agreement with Sunni nationalists is the expulsion of the US, which only the US opposes. Take the US out of the picture and negotiations become plausible between those two groups.

Sistani has spoken strongly against breaking up the country, which puts him on Sadr's side. Even in Southern Iraq, there is a substantial nationalist element that does not want to see the country broken up. This is to say that without the US putting its weight on the side of the secessionists, the non-nationalist Shiites can probably be persuaded to go along with the nationalists, including Sistani who in this is effectively a nationalist.

A settlement that ends the chaos and the war looks one way to the anti-nationalist Shiites today, since they know the US has to back the secessionists in order to keep US bases. If the US is pulling out, a settlement will look much better, especially since every neighbor wants a settlement.

The Saudis will back anything that satisfies the Iraqi Sunnis. Iran will back anything that satisfies most of the Iraqi Shiites. A deal between Sadr and the Sunni insurgency would have the backing of all of the neighbors, meaning without the US, anti-nationalists would have no patrons.

Having no patrons and facing the will of the majority of the country, plus Saudi Arabia, plus Iran plus Turkey would put Iraq's anti-nationalists into a hopeless situation. They would be forced to go along with the nationalists.

Now this is all a dream. The US did not invade Iraq to create a hostile country run by Sadr that works against US regional policy. And the US has not yet realized that this is the very best outcome the US can hope for at this point from a US strategic point of view.

Instead the US is going to lose all of its regional allies over this issue, invite Russia and China into the region in force and end up losing the bases and tolerating a hostile Iraq anyway.

But if a full withdrawal was plausible it would be a beginning of salvaging the US regional position and minimizing US losses. I think Dr. Cole calls for a full withdrawal knowing it will not happen soon in hopes of helping to eventually correct US thinking on this issue.

A British withdrawal without a US withdrawal would have none of these positive effects because the US would still be intervening in Iraqi politics in favor of anti-nationalist Kurds and Shiites.

The two impacts a British withdrawal without the US would have are that it would increase the pressure on the US to leave, which is a good thing and it would over the short term reduce the authority of the central government over Basra which is a bad thing. That short term bad impact of a British withdrawal would be dwarfed by the good long term impact of a full coalition withdrawal.

 
At 8:41 AM, Blogger Gabriel said...

Well its official, Shaha Riza was Libyan here is a little bit about her father and her initial upbringing.

 

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