Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Friday, August 31, 2007

Rubin on Hostage Release, Drug Policy in Afghanistan

Here's some light reading for your Labor Day weekend. Afghanistan is pretty clearly becoming a problem for the US diplomatically and militarily of a major sort that would be front page news if it weren't for the even more deadly horror show in Iraq.

Barnett Rubin weighs in on the release of the Korean hostages and the Taliban's ability to negotiate directly with a government and get pledge of troop withdrawals. (Scroll down). The top post is another on drug policy. Afghanistan has become the world's largest produce of the poppies from which heroin is made, and the threat of narco-terrorism looms large. Rubin makes suggestions about what should be done (hint: not just burn the fields).
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Arguments over Night of the Living Dead in Iraq

A Government Accounting Office report has found that the Iraqi government has not met 13 of 18 benchmarks set by the US Congress. The report was leaked before it could be doctored by the Bush administration, which promptly denounced it and pledged to . . . doctor it.

Another thing that could be said is that of the 18 congressional benchmarks some are frankly trivial. The trivial ones are the only ones met.

I personally find the controversy about Iraq in Washington to be bizarre. Are they really arguing about whether the situation is improving? I mean, you have the Night of the Living Dead over there. People lack potable water, cholera has broken out even in the good areas, a third of people are hungry, a doubling of the internally displaced to at least 1.1 million, and a million pilgrims dispersed just this week by militia infighting in a supposedly safe all-Shiite area. The government has all but collapsed, with even the formerly cooperative sections of the Sunni Arab political class withdrawing in a snit (much less more Sunni Arabs being brought in from the cold). The parliament hasn't actually passed any legislation to speak of and often cannot get a quorum. Corruption is endemic. The weapons we give the Iraqi army are often sold off to the insurgency. Some of our development aid goes to them, too.

The average number of Iraqis killed in 2007 per day exceeds those killed in 2006. Independent counts by news organizations do not agree with Pentagon estimates about drops in civilian deaths over-all. Nation-wide attacks in June reached a daily all-time high of 177.5. True, violence in Baghdad has been wrestled back down to the levels of summer, 2006 (hint: it wasn't paradise), but violence levels are up in the rest of the country. If you compare each month in 2006 with each month in 2007 with regard to US military deaths, the 2007 picture is dreadful.

I saw on CNN this smarmy Bush administration official come and and say that US troop deaths had fallen because of the surge, which is why we should support it. Just read the following chart bottom to top and compare 2006 month by month to 2007. US troop deaths haven't fallen. They are way up. Besides, they would be zero if the US were not occupying Iraq militarily, so if we should support a policy that leads to fewer troop deaths, that is the better policy.

Here are the US troop death via Icasualties.org.

8-2007 77     8-2006 65
7-2007 79     7-2006 43
6-2007 101    6-2006 61
5-2007 126    5-2006 69
4-2007 104    4-2006 76
3-2007 81     3-2006 31
2-2007 81     2-2006 55
1-2007 83     1-2006 62

I mean, how brain dead do the Bushies think we are, peddling this horse manure that US troop deaths have fallen? (There are always seasonal variations because in the summer it is 120 F. in the shade and guerrillas are too heat-exhausted to fight; but the summer 2007 numbers are much greater than those for summer 2006; that isn't progress.) And why does our corporate media keep repeating this Goebbels-like propaganda? Do we really live in an Orwellian state?

I'm at a conference. I would make a chart to illustrate the above if I had the time. Somebody else please do it. Maybe we bloggers can unite to keep the debate from being conducted on false premises for once.

(Thanks just a million to Kevin Drum at Washington Monthly and all the others who responded to my call for a graph here. It is striking when you see it that way. Look in comments for more such links.)

Repeat: US troop deaths in Iraq have not fallen and that is not a reason to support the troop escalation. And, violence in Iraq has not fallen because of the surge. Violence is way up this year.

-----------------
At the Napoleon's Egypt blog: "The Washington of France."
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Thursday, August 30, 2007

The Nation: Corruption the Norm in Iraqi Gov't
USG Reports Al-Maliki has Impeded investigations

The Nation has gotten hold of a secret USG report that says that profound corruption is the norm in the Iraqi government. The intrepid David Corn writes:


' according to the working draft of a secret document prepared by the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, the Maliki government has failed in one significant area: corruption. Maliki's government is "not capable of even rudimentary enforcement of anticorruption laws," the report says, and, perhaps worse, the report notes that Maliki's office has impeded investigations of fraud and crime within the government.

The draft--over 70 pages long--was obtained by The Nation, and it reviews the work (or attempted work) of the Commission on Public Integrity (CPI), an independent Iraqi institution, and other anticorruption agencies within the Iraqi government. Labeled "SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED/Not for distribution to personnel outside of the US Embassy in Baghdad," the study details a situation in which there is little, if any, prosecution of government theft and sleaze. Moreover, it concludes that corruption is "the norm in many ministries."

The report depicts the Iraqi government as riddled with corruption and criminals-and beyond the reach of anticorruption investigators. It also maintains that the extensive corruption within the Iraqi government has strategic consequences by decreasing public support for the U.S.-backed government and by providing a source of funding for Iraqi insurgents and militias.'


Read the whole thing.

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Cheney & Iran: Here We Go Again?

Barnett Rubin relays a message from a well-connected friend in Washington on the Cheney Administration's plans to roll out a military confrontation with Iran in September. He writes at the Global Affairs blog:

" My friend had spoken to someone in one of the leading neo-conservative institutions. He summarized what he was told this way:


They [the source's institution] have "instructions" (yes, that was the word used) from the Office of the Vice-President to roll out a campaign for war with Iran in the week after Labor Day; it will be coordinated with the American Enterprise Institute, the Wall Street Journal, the Weekly Standard, Commentary, Fox, and the usual suspects. It will be heavy sustained assault on the airwaves, designed to knock public sentiment into a position from which a war can be maintained. Evidently they don't think they'll ever get majority support for this--they want something like 35-40 percent support, which in their book is "plenty."

Of course I cannot verify this report. But besides all the other pieces of information about this circulating, I heard last week from a former U.S. government contractor. According to this friend, someone in the Department of Defense called, asking for cost estimates for a model for reconstruction in Asia. The former contractor finally concluded that the model was intended for Iran."

-----

Cole: there has been some recent similar reporting. For instance, just on Tuesday Raw Story covered a paper by two British academics arguing that the US has the capability and perhaps the intention of launching an aerial assault on Iran's enrichment facilities.

Earlier, McClatchy reported on Aug. 9 that Cheney has been urging bombing of Iranian trails to Iraq. This position struck me as eerily reminiscent of Nixon-Kissinger's treatment of Cambodia (which is what really caused the Khmer Rouge horrors, not, as Bush said the other day, US withdrawal from Vietnam; we dropped enormous amounts of ordnance on that country and severely disrupted it).

Also at Raw Story on Aug. 10.

And Gareth Porter on Aug. 16 responding to the McClatchy article.

So, maybe something is up.

If you want to see what I think of a war with Iran, see this golden oldie.

Read Rubin's whole piece.

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Sistani Aides Held by JAM
Muqtada freezes Paramilitary for 6 months

Two senior aides to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani--Abdul Mahdi al-Karbala'i and Ahmad al-Safi-- were kidnapped on Tuesday by the Mahdi Army and are still being held as captives, according to the Kuwaiti News Organization. This report seems to confirm that the Mahdi Army attempted to take over the shrine of Imam Husayn in Karbala under the cover of the festival of the birth of the 12th Imam, which had brought a million pilgrims into the city. The shrine is worth millions if not hundreds of millions in pilgrimage revenue annually, and is also a source of prestige among Shiites. The two kidnapped clerics had preached there.

PM Nuri al-Maliki confirmed that militiamen had attempted to take over the shrine, but he muddied the waters by calling the attackers "remnants of the Baath" and suggesting that they wanted to blow it up. Far more likely, they wanted to displace the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council from it and to start appropriating the monies from the pilgrimage trade for themselves.

Al-Maliki fired 1500 policemen in Karbala on Wednesday and dismissed the police chief, Major General Saleh Khazal Al-Maliki, on grounds of dereliction of duty. (It may be that the police were in some part recruited from or highly sympathetic to the Mahdi Army, and so they declined to intervene in its push to take the shrine by force).

In the aftermath of the fighting Tuesday in the holy city of Karbala between the Mahdi Army and the Badr Corps of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, and then attacks on SIIC offices in Baghdad by Mahdi Army fighters, the militia's leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, called Wednesday for it to lay down its arms for 6 months.

My guess is that Muqtada realizes that his men went too far, in trying to take the shrine of Imam Husayn by main force, and in disrupting a major Shiite festival. These actions would be highly unpopular in the Shiite street, and could cost Muqtada some of his otherwise impressive popularity in the South. Aljazeera showed him speaking in Najaf, by the way, putting the lie to Bush administration allegations that he had gone into hiding in Iran (that was just a smear, since he prides himself on his Iraq nationalism).

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Muqtada said: "We considered it beneficial to freeze the Mahdi Army without exception, in order to rebuild its structure in such a way as to preserve its doctrinal heading-- for a period of 6 months from the issuing of this decision." He added, "We also announce three days of mourning, and the closing of the offices of the Martyr Sadr thoughout Iraq, the wearing of black, the holding of mourning sessions." He urged the public to investigate what had occured in Karbala.

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Akhavi on Neocolonialism

Khody Akhavi at IPS covers my talk last Friday at the New America Foundation, on my book, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East. He writes:


'In Cole's view, the Bush administration's rhetoric of "liberating Iraq" from the clutches of a tyrannical leader with a hankering for weapons of mass destruction can't mask its long-term neo-colonial ambitions. Like Napoleon, Bush has a tendency to believe his own propaganda. Both invasions deployed rhetoric of liberation. Like the French general, Bush had a desire to create a "Greater Middle East", only to face an insurgency that viewed the foreign presence as an occupation, not liberation.'


Read the whole thing.

Video of my talk at NAF is available here.

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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Shiite Militia Clashes at Karbala Killl 52, Wound 206
Mahdi Army Rampage against SIIC offices in Baghdad

Clashes between rival militias in the Shiite holy city of Karbala left some 52 dead and 206 wounded on Tuesday, according to late reports from Iraqi security officials. About a million Shiite pilgrims had converged on the city to commemorate the birthday of the Twelfth Imam, the 12th in the line of succession from the Prophet Muhammad, who Shiites expect to appear supernaturally at the end of days.

The fighting let the government to declare a curfew and to insist that the pilgrims disperse. The government sent some buses from Baghdad. Reuters says its stringers in Karbala identified the two sides as the Mahdi Army of the Sadr Movement and the Badr Corps of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC). Three hotels in downtown Karbala were burned in the disturbances.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic two stories about what happened. The first is a somewhat implausible story that Iraqi police just began firing at the pilgrims indiscriminately when they chanted slogans criticizing the government of Nuri al-Maliki for its repressive policies in the south.

So what's going on here? The Supreme Council controls the shrine and mosque of Imam Husayn in Karbala, among the holiest shrines in the Shiite world. Pilgrims give donations when they visit the shrine, worth millions every year, and being able to preach at its mosque lends prestige to the incumbent. Al-Zaman says that the Sadrists, which in 2003 for a while controlled the shrine, were using the cover of the enormous crowds to steal a march on the Badr Corps, seeking to occupy the shrine. Badr appears to have fought them off. A lot of Karbala police were recruited from Badr, so it is always hard to tell militia on militia violence from police on militia violence.

That the Shiite government of Nuri al-Maliki cannot maintain order in the supremely Shiite city of Karbala during a major holy rite is very worrisome. In a way, Karbala's violence during the past two days reminds me of the Shiite on Shiite violence in Basra. The south seems less and less stable, as the Mahdi Army and the Badr Corps square off against one another, each seeking to control as many provinces as possible.

Leaders of the Mahdi Army and the Supreme Council in Karbala were said to be meeting urgently with the Shiite Grand Ayatollahs in an effort to find a way to get the two groups to stop fighting.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Mahdi Army elements attacked offices of the Supreme Council in several places in Iraq in reprisal for SIIC fighting with the Mahdi Army in Karbala. McClatchy reports of these clashes:


'Gunmen broke in the office of Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) in Kadhemiyah neighborhood north Baghdad around 5,00 pm and kidnapped 4 guys and burnt the office. . .

5 people killed and 20 injured in clashes between gunmen and guards of an office of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) in Habibiyah neighborhood east Baghdad. The clashes broke out around 6,00 pm and still ongoing.

Gunmen attacked the office of SIIC in Amil neighborhood southwest Baghdad around 7,30. The clashes stills ongoing and no casualties reported.

Gunmen attacked the office of the SIIC in Husseiniyah town north Baghdad around 7,30 Pm. No casualties reported.'


McClatchy rounds up other political violence in Iraq for Tuesday. Sunni Arab guerrillas were attacking Shiite pilgrims. There are all these underground wars in Iraq.

' Baghdad: 4 pilgrims were wounded when gunmen attacked them in AlBo’etha area south Baghdad around 7,30 am. . .

6 pilgrims were injured when gunmen attacked them in Mahmoudiyah town south Baghdad around 7,45 am. . .

A civilian was killed and 3 others wounded in a parked car bomb explosion in Sheikh Omar neighborhood downtown Baghdad around 10,30 am. . .

Gunmen broke in the mosque of Haj Isma’il in Qahira neighborhood north Baghdad around 5,00 pm killing 3 men and kidnapping another 3 men . . .

Police found 13 unidentified bodies in Baghdad today. . .

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Bush, Ahmadinejad Trade Barbs
Iranian Delegates Arrested, Released by US

First Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran was read to step into the vacuum when the US was forced out of Iraq. He oddly said that Iran's friends, including Saudi Arabia, would help in this task. The hyper-Sunni Saudi government is actually not very friendly with Shiite Iran at all.

Then Bush rattled sabers against Iran putting the regime in Tehran on the same level as al-Qaeda as a threat to US interests. That seems a bit shrill.

Then US troops arrested 7 Iranians, mostly part of a delegation of the electricity ministry, but swiftly later released them.

The problem with the two leaders talking big against one another is that the provocations might suddenly get out of hand and suddenly there would be a war.

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Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Cole in Salon: The War on al-Maliki

My Salon column for Wednesday is now available: "The war against Iraq's prime minister:"

Sens. Hillary Clinton and Carl Levin are calling for Nouri al-Maliki's ouster as a way of attacking Bush's Iraq policy. But do they understand the consequences?"

Excerpt:


' In his remarks to the American Legion in Reno, Nev., Bush said that the Iraqi government was America's shield in the region against both of these forces of "Islamic extremism," and said of Maliki, "The prime minister of Iraq, Prime Minister Maliki, has courageously committed to pursue the forces of evil and destruction."

Bush was defending Maliki, even at the cost of implausibly depicting the leader of the fundamentalist Shiite Islamic Call (al-Da'wa) Party as an opponent of Iran and Hezbollah, because the prime minister has been under virtual siege from Washington politicians for the past week and a half. He's become the favorite whipping boy of opponents of continued U.S. military presence in Iraq.

Maliki has been unafraid to mount his own defense against his American critics. On Sunday, he slammed Sens. Carl Levin and Hillary Clinton for calling for the Iraqi parliament to oust him. He accused the senators of acting as if Iraq were "the feudal estate of this person or that," a metaphor that went over the head of most American observers. Modern Iraqi political parties such as the Islamic Call were formed in part as a reaction against the landlord class that dominated Iraq under the British-installed monarchy. Maliki was saying the senators were bringing back colonialism and disregarding the Iraqi political process. "They are Democrats," he quipped of Clinton and Levin, "so they should respect democracy and its results." '


Read the whole thing.

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Rubin: Proposal on Narcotics in Afghanistan

Barnett Rubin has just posted another entry in his brilliant series on counter-narcotics in Afghanistan.

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Gonzales Gone for Wrong Reasons

The great shame of it all is that Alberto Gonzales was confirmed as Attorney General despite it being widely known that he had played a central role in attempting to authorize the use of torture on prisoners in US custody. He had tossed aside the US Constitution's own prohibition on "cruel and unusual punishment" (such a wimpy bleeding-heart liberal document). It is an index of the corruption of the Republican Party, which then controlled Congress, that they made this man attorney general in the first place.

The great shame of it all is that Gonzales was hounded out of office not because he authorized torture and assaulted the basic principles of the US constitution, but because he fired US attorneys for partisan pro-Republican reasons. Torture people all you like, is the message he sent, but if you're if you are fair to the opposing party, you are fired.

He tossed aside the Geneva Conventions, which were crafted to prevent any reemergence of Nazism in the post-war period. While Gonzales is not a Nazi, if you get rid of an anti-Nazi legal instrument you are in effect aiding and abetting potential fascism.

MSNBC wrote at the height of the Abu Ghraib torture scandal, which Gonzales had implicitly encouraged:


By Jan. 25, 2002, according to a memo obtained by NEWSWEEK [pdf], it was clear that Bush had already decided that the Geneva Conventions did not apply at all, either to the Taliban or Al Qaeda. In the memo, which was written to Bush by Gonzales, the White House legal counsel told the president that Powell had "requested that you reconsider that decision." Gonzales then laid out startlingly broad arguments that anticipated any objections to the conduct of U.S. soldiers or CIA interrogators in the future. "As you have said, the war against terrorism is a new kind of war," Gonzales wrote to Bush. "The nature of the new war places a —high premium on other factors, such as the ability to quickly obtain information from captured terrorists and their sponsors in order to avoid further atrocities against American civilians." Gonzales concluded in stark terms: "In my judgment, this new paradigm renders obsolete Geneva's strict limitations on questioning of enemy prisoners and renders quaint some of its provisions."


The Geneva conventions, to which the United States is a signatory (i.e. it is a treaty with the force of American law) cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand.

The great shame of it all is that Gonzales is being ousted for what amounts to selectively abetting voter fraud.

His role as torturer-in-chief would not have forced him from office.

It is a great shame.

----

A canny reader writes: "How appropriate that Gonzales's resignation is effective September 17: September 17 is Constitution Day."

On a related subject at Salon.com: "Did Chertoff lie to Congress about Guantánamo?"
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The Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Terrorism

At the Global Affairs group blog, Farideh Farhi tells us how Tehran is reacting to the Bush adminstration's threat to declare sections of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a 'terrorist organization.

She argues that through such threats, Bush is merely strengthening the Iranian Right.

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War in a Time of Cholera

Violence at Karbala, Baghdad, Falluja dogged the al-Maliki government on Monday, while the significance of the agreements reached by the presidential council on national reconciliation remained in doubt. Unless parliament passes them, they remain a dead letter. The Sunni Arabs continued to decline to rejoin al-Maliki's government.

Meanwhile, the public health crisis that is Iraq worsened over the weekend:

The USG Open Source Center translates a report on Kurdistan television on a cholera outbreak in Sulaymaniya. Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that there are fears of the disease spreading through the northern provinces.

Iraqi Kurdistan health minister announces five cholera deaths
Kurdistan Satellite TV
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Document Type: OSC Summary

Iraqi Kurdistan health minister announces five cholera deaths

The Kurdistan Region minister of health has announced, in a news conference, the death of five patients from cholera in the region, Kurdistan Democratic Party-run Kurdistan Satellite TV reported on 26 August.

The TV broadcast excerpts from a news conference by the regional minister of health, Ziryan Uthman, who announced the death of five people from cholera in the cities of Kirkuk and Sulaymaniyah. "There have been a few cases of diarrhoea recently in Kirkuk. There have been also about 2,000 cases of severe diarrhoea in Sulaymaniyah, and medical examinations showed that three of the cases in Sulaymaniyah were cholera cases. This means that most of the diarrhoea cases in Sulaymaniyah were cholera cases," the minister said.

He added: "We have requested assistance from the World Health Organization, the Red Cross, and the centre's Ministry of Health in Baghdad in fighting the disease."

The minister said that the casualties were all elderly people suffering from other diseases. He added that "there are about 150 to 200 (cholera) cases in Sulaymaniyah".

(Description of Source: Salah-al-Din Kurdistan Satellite TV in Sorani Kurdish -- Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) satellite TV)

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Churchill on When to Throw in the Towel on Iraq

Glenn Greenwald once remarked that "the highest achievement to which one can aspire in the neocon universe it to be compared to Winston Churchill."

So Churchill would advocate another surge and toughing it out forever in Iraq, right? Here is what he wrote in 1922, a couple of years after Britain was awarded Iraq by the Versailles Treaty as a 'mandate' (i.e. colony). [Britain was forced out as mandatory power in Iraq in 1932, when it became an independent country, though of course it was influential until 1958.]


"Winston S. Churchill to David Lloyd George (Churchill papers: 17/27) 1 September 1922

I am deeply concerned about Iraq. The task you have given me is becoming really impossible. Our forces are reduced now to very slender proportions. The Turkish menace has got worse; Feisal is playing the fool, if not the knave; his incompetent Arab officials are disturbing some of the provinces and failing to collect the revenue; we overpaid £200,000 on last year's account which it is almost certain Iraq will not be able to pay this year, thus entailing a Supplementary Estimate in regard to a matter never sanctioned by Parliament; a further deficit, in spite of large economies, is nearly certain this year on the civil expenses owing to the drop in the revenue. I have had to maintain British troops at Mosul all through the year in consequence of the Angora quarrel: this has upset the programme of reliefs and will certainly lead to further expenditure beyond the provision I cannot at this moment withdraw these troops without practically inviting the Turks to come in. The small column which is operating in the Rania district inside our border against the Turkish raiders and Kurdish sympathisers is a source of constant anxiety to me.

I do not see what political strength there is to face a disaster of any kind, and certainly I cannot believe that in any circumstances any large reinforcements would be sent from here or from India. There is scarcely a single newspaper - Tory, Liberal or Labour - which is not consistently hostile to our remaining in this country. The enormous reductions which have been effected have brought no goodwill, and any alternative Government that might be formed here - Labour, Die-hard or Wee Free - would gain popularity by ordering instant evacuation. Moreover in my own heart I do not see what we are getting out of it. Owing to the difficulties with America, no progress has been made in developing the oil. Altogether I am getting to the end of my resources.

I think we should now put definitely, not only to Feisal but to the Constituent Assembly, the position that unless they beg us to stay and to stay on our own terms in regard to efficient control, we shall actually evacuate before the close of the financial year. I would put this issue in the most brutal way, and if they are not prepared to urge us to stay and to co-operate in every manner I would actually clear out. That at any rate would be a solution. Whether we should clear out of the country altogether or hold on to a portion of the Basra vilayet is a minor issue requiring a special study. It is quite possible, however, that face to face with this ultimatum the King, and still more the Constituent Assembly, will implore us to remain. If they

Page 2

do, shall we not be obliged to remain? If we remain, shall we not be answerable for defending their frontier? How are we to do this if the Turk comes in? We have no force whatever that can resist any serious inroad. The War Office, of course, have played for safety throughout and are ready to say 'I told you so' at the first misfortune.

Surveying all the above, I think I must ask you for definite guidance at this stage as to what you wish and what you are prepared to do. The victories of the Turks will increase our difficulties throughout the Mohammedan world. At present we are paying eight millions a year for the privilege of living on an ungrateful volcano out of which we are in no circumstances to get anything worth having."

From Martin Gilbert, WINSTON S. CHURCHILL IV, Companion Volume Part 3, London: Heinemann, 1977, pp. 1973-74.

From: This web site, winstonchurchill.org.

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Monday, August 27, 2007

Williams Guest Op-ed: W. and Graham Greene

John S. Williams writes:

"One of the most curious comments in Incurious Boy George's recent speech before the Veterans of Foreign War in Kansas City was his totally uninformed reference to Graham Greene's novel about American involvement in Vietnam, The Quiet American. Perhaps the best article on the matter I've read thus far is one by Frank James entitled "Why would Bush cite 'The Quiet American'?" that I quite accidentally stumbled upon.

I have long been interested in the themes of naive idealism, frequently taking the form of innocence (as in ignorance, in the religious sense of ignorance of good and evil, the dreaming innocence of childhood, immaturity), and the evil and havoc that can be the consequence of such innocence or equally important the discovery of the power of evil through the loss of innocence. Think Fitzgerald's Gatsby, or Melville's Billy Budd, or Faulkner's Sutpen for the former; or Twain's Huck Finn, or Salinger's Holden Caulfield or Faulkner's Ike McCaslin for the latter.

Graham Greene, a Brit, understood this aspect of the American character just as well as do American writers. But in the article I've linked above and in the other things I've read, all have missed the crucial sentence in Greene's great novel that stands as an indictment of Alden Pyle, the young naive, idealistic, innocent (Greene's word, not mine) CIA agent. This sentence is equally an indictment of our strutting, smirking President and apparently his current speech writers who put the words in his mouth. Greene's indictment is: "He was impregnably armoured by his good intentions and his ignorance."

Incurious Boy George may have not learned about irony in a literature course in college, but one would have hoped his speech writers had! "
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Al-Maliki Threatens Journalists
Al-Hashemi Plays Hard to Get

Al-Maliki tells off US pols., threatens journalists with libel lawsuits. A hint to Mr. al-Maliki: This kind of shrillness does not look prime ministerial and just hurts your cause. Muzzling criticism in the press is a contradiction of your claim to legitimacy because of a democratic victory in the polls.

Tariq al-Hashimi was in Ankara for consultations and announced that he would not lightly rejoin the Iraqi government. Al-Hashimi is a vice president of Iraq and leading figure in Iraqi Islamic Party and its current coalition, the Iraqi Accord Front. He has a list of 6 major demands. He and his party are being wooed by the 5 party coalition that is supporting al-Maliki. He got some of what he wanted on Friday, including pledges to release Sunni Arab detainees who were not going to be formally charged, and a change in the Debaathification laws. Turkish politician Abdullah Gul urged al-Hashemi to return to the al-Maliki government.

British troops withdrew from a Joint Operations Command Center in Basra on Sunday. Gradually the remaining 5,500 British troops in the south are being concentrated near the airport, having left most security duties to the Iraqi 10th Army Division and local police. When the British left, a crowd of Sadrists gathered, celebrating and claiming victory. A force of Mahdi Army militiamen attempted to invade the site, but they were fought off by security forces, according to Reuters.

The Sadrists are declining to return to the al-Maliki government, even though their differences with it are minimal.

A high official of the Islamic Call (Da`wa) Party of PM Nuri al-Maliki, Jawad Talibi, give this explanation of American politicians' calls for al-Maliki to step down. It derives, he said, from the way the American political class is divided internally.

The Iraqi Presidential Council announced Sunday that some agreements had been made among its members on Bush's benchmarks (they did not put it that way). But they mentioned the issue of Iraqi detainees in Iraqi prisons, the petroleum law, and so forth.

Reuters rounds up political violence for Sunday. McClatchy has more. Note that during the Shiite holy days commemorating the birth of the 12th Imam, death squad killings in Baghdad have fallen to 10 or 11 a day. Alas, probably won't last.

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Who is the US Fighting in Iraq?

Who exactly is the US fighting in Iraq? Graphed by self-confessed identity of captives, it is largely Sunni Arab Iraqis, often motivated primarily by the opportunity to earn some money from the resistance leaders.


Source: New York Times, 2007/08/25.

The second largest group is Salafi Takfiris, i.e. fundamentalists who do not consider Shiites to be Muslims and who believe they may be harmed with impunity. The third group is Shiite militiamen (how many of these are non-ideological paid employees is not specified). Self-identified al-Qaeda are only 1800 of the 24000 in captivity, about 7 percent. (Of course, most of these fighters are not really al-Qaeda in the sense of pledging fealty to Usama Bin Laden or being part of his organization; they are using "al-Qaeda" to mean "bogeyman": i.e., 'be afraid of me'.) Foreign fighters at 280 are about 1.1 percent. While it could be argued that it would take bold captives to declare themselves al-Qaeda, there would be no downside to telling the Americans one was a takfiri. There is no reason to think the over 11,000 unspecified Sunni Arabs is fundamentalists. Opinion polling still shows a majority of Sunnis favoring the separation of religion and state.

The odd tendency of the US military and press to refer to all guerrillas in Iraq as "al-Qaeda" is obviously not justified by their own subsequent interrogations of captured suspects. Readers should write and complain when they see al-Qaeda used indiscriminately to describe Sunni Arab fighters.

And when you hear Cheney say we have to fight al-Qaeda in Iraq, you will know that most of the people the US is fighting there are no such thing.

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Lessons from Past Western Incursions in the Middle East

The video of my appearance at the New America Foundation is now online. Many thanks again to kind host Steve Clemons. The short version, covering some of the same points, can be read at Tomdispatch.com, which is carrying my essay on Bonaparte and Bush.

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Rubin on Narcotics in Afghanistan

At the Global Affairs group blog, Barnett Rubin gives us the second in a series of three posts on the effort to confront narcotics production and trafficking coming out of Afghanistan. It is an issue intimately tied up, potentially, with counter-terrorism efforts, but is often neglected by analysts. Rubin is among our foremost Afghanistan experts.
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Sunday, August 26, 2007

Surge in Deaths
85 percent in US custody Are Sunni Arabs

The Bush administration talking points on the Iraq War are that the troop escalation has reduced violence and made Iraq safer for Iraqis, that the major threat in Iraq is self-avowed al-Qaeda devotees, and that Iran and the Shiites are just as deadly a threat as the Sunni Arab guerrillas.

The facts? The Associated Press points out the following

Deaths per day from political violence in 2007: 62
Deaths per day from political violence in 2006: 33

Yeah, things are obviously much safer. The report does say that violence is down in Baghdad this year, but the 'surge' just displaced it to other provinces. AP adds:


Nearly 1,000 more people have been killed in violence across Iraq in the first eight months of this year than in all of 2006. So far this year, about 14,800 people have died in war-related attacks and sectarian murders. The AP accounted for 13,811 deaths in 2006.

•Baghdad has gone from representing 76 percent of all civilian and police war-related deaths in Iraq in January to 52 percent in July, bringing it back to the same spot it was roughly a year ago.'Nearly 1,000 more people have been killed in violence across Iraq in the first eight months of this year than in all of 2006. So far this year, about 14,800 people have died in war-related attacks and sectarian murders. The AP accounted for 13,811 deaths in 2006.

The guerrillas have dealt with the surge by a doubling of violence in Iraq as a whole, and the US has only succeeded in wrestling the problem in Baghdad back down to where it was in summer of 2006.

Al-Hayat comments in Arabic on this NYT story that the number of detainees held by the US military in Iraq has risen from 19,000 to 24,400 in the course of the surge. Of these over 24,000, 85% are Sunni Arabs (20,740 of the current total). These numbers make absurd the comments of some US officers that the Shiite militias are as big a threat as the Sunni Salafi 'insurgents,' or that Iran is the major trouble maker in Iraq.

Indeed, since most Mahdi Army fighters deeply dislike Iran, those 15% in custody from among the Iraqi Shiites probably represent Iraqi nativists.

I read 85 percent of detainees being Sunni as meaning that most attacks were in Sunni Arab neighborhoods and so those arrested were from that community. Iran is not backing Iraqi Sunni Arabs because it could not do so without essentially collaborating in attacks on Iraqi Shiites (it is a different situation than Palestine, where there are no Shiites and there therefore is no downside to supporting Hamas).

The NYT says that of the 24,400, only 1800 openly say that they are "al-Qaeda." That is about 7 percent of the whole. Another 6,000, or about a fourth, say they are takfiris, i.e. Salafis who are willing to excommunicate Shiites from Islam and to declare them non-Muslims.

The conclusion is that the vast majority (certainly 2/3s report themselves as neither al-Qaeda nor takfiri). Even if we exclude the Shiites, a majority may well not even be religious.

Meanwhile, Sunni Arab VP Tariq al-Hashimi wants these thousands of detainees formally charged with some crime or released. He says whether his resignation goes through depends on his party's decree. His coalition, the Iraq Accord Front, has withdrawn from al-Maliki's "national unity cabinet." Al-Hashemi's resignation would significantly weaken al-Maliki.

The withdrawal of 3 more cabinet ministers, of the National Iraqi List.

The trial of Baathis involved in suppressing the spring 1991 revolution is barely underway, but it is creating anger against the US since the Bush senior administration called for the uprising and then stood aside as Saddam massacred the rebels.

Reuters rounds up political violence in Iraq for Saturday,

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Cole on Air America with Sam Seder, Sunday

Catch my interview at Air America with Sam Seder on Sunday, August 26 at 6 pm, regarding my new book, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East.
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Saturday, August 25, 2007

Troops on Ground tune out "Happy Talk" from Bush

Tina Susman of the LAT finds that the privates and specialists among US troops in Iraq are dismissive of the 'happy talk' they hear from Bush and some of their commanders about the way the war is going. They see the realities on the ground, they lose friends to roadside bombings, they see evidence that the Iraqi Army is not trustworthy. So 'happy talk' doesn't impress them.

Meanwhile, among the high generals, there is a dispute about how fast to draw down troops from Iraq. Gen Peter Pace seems to be denying it now but it was rumored that he might suggest going down to less than 100,000 in 2008.

Big database, small arrest yield. Raises fears for civil rights and privacy considerations.

Reuters rounds up civil war violence on Iraq for Friday. Among the incidents:


BAGHDAD - At least 13 people were killed in clashes between U.S. forces and gunmen in the Shula district of northwestern Baghdad overnight, a police source at a hospital said. U.S. force said they killed eight militants in the clash.


Was looking for follow up to Thursday's big attack in Diyala, but no word.

At the group blog, Barnett Rubin posts the first of three installments on the drug problem and Afghanistan.

Speaking of which, remember how some Pentagon spokespeople keep saying that explosively formed projectiles must come from Iran even when used by Sunni Arab Iraqis? Well, what about this report that EFPs with a distinct signature are being used in Afghanistan? There is no evidence for an Iranian provenance over there. And Afghanistan is a fourth world country compared to Iraq.

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Friday, August 24, 2007

Ahmed on Sharif Decision, Pakistan

Don't miss Manan Ahmed's important comment at our Global Affairs group blog on Pakistan's Supreme Court decision that former prime minister Nawaz Sharif may return to Pakistan.

See also Sameer Lalwani's comments at the Washington Note on the same issue.

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C-Span covers Cole at New America Foundation

This talk will be broadcast on C-Span at some later date, but will be available later on Friday at the web site of the New America Foundation.

New America Foundation



Juan Cole: Lessons from Past Western Incursions in the Middle East

Friday, August 24, 2007
12:15 p.m. - 1:45 p.m.

New America Foundation
1630 Connecticut Ave, NW, 7th Floor
Washington, DC

Cole will discuss his new book, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East and the relevance and lessons of Napoleon’s expedition in Egypt to the current American occupation of Iraq. New America Foundation/American Strategy Program Director Steve Clemons will offer comments and moderate the discussion.

Juan is a professor of Middle Eastern and South Asian history at the University of Michigan, the President of the Global Americana Institute, and the publisher of Informed Comment, a blog that specializes in providing translations and commentary on the modern Middle East.

Featured Speakers
Juan Cole
Author, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East
Publisher, Informed Comment

Steven Clemons,
Senior Fellow and Director
American Strategy Program, New America Foundation
Publisher, TheWashingtonNote.com

To RSVP for this event: communications@newamerica.net with name, affiliation, and contact information.

If you have questions, call or email Liz Wu at (202) 986-2700 x315 or wu //a t// newamerica.net

The New America Foundation • www.NewAmerica.net
1630 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., 7th Floor, Washington, DC 20009

----

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog: "British Navy Sink's Bonaparte's Fleet, Marooning French Army in Egypt."
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Iranian Troops Come into Kurdistan

Iranian troops came into the Iraqi territory of Kurdistan, seeking revenge on the PEJAK faction of Kurds that has launched terror attacks on Iranian soil.

Senator John Warner called Thursday for Bush to take out 5,000 US troops from Iraq before Christmas Day. Although Warner protrayed the move as symbolic,, insofar as it would signal to the region that the US was serious about getting out, most analysts felt that his position was so foreign to Bush that it had little chance of acceptance.

McClatchy reports political violence on Thursday:


' Baghdad . . .

- Around 9 a.m., a roadside bomb exploded at Na’iriya area of New Baghdad neighborhood ( east Baghdad) killing 1 person and injuring 5 others.

- Soldiers from Troop C, 3rd Squadron, 1st Cavalry Regiment, were targeted by insurgents while patrolling in Jisr Diyala, southeast of Baghdad, Aug. 21. U.S. Soldiers were unhurt, but two local children were caught in a roadside bomb explosion, killing one child and injuring another. . .

Anbar

- On Tuesday ( August 21) , a suicide bomber targeted a police check point at Dam street in Falluja (62 km west of Baghdad) injuring two people and he was killed by police.

Kirkuk

- Wednesday night, a car bomb targeted a convoy for a member of Hawija council board ( west of Kirkuk) injuring one guard who was transferred to hospital.

- Wednesday night, police arrested the media man of 1920th battalions in Kirkuk during a raid in Wahid Huzayran ( June 1st ) neighborhood in Kirkuk city. . .

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Thursday, August 23, 2007

OSC Press Roundup
Maliki visit to Syria

The USG Open Source Center rounds up Iraqi media reaction to the visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to Damascus.

Iraq-Syria: Media, Officials Call Al-Maliki Visit 'Success' Despite Differences Iraq, Syria
-- OSC Report Friday, August 24, 2007
Document Type: OSC Report Word Count: 749

Iraq-Syria: Media, Officials Call Al-Maliki's Visit 'Successful' Despite Differences During his 20-22 August visit to Damascus, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki pushed to enlist Syria as a partner in Iraq's fight against terrorism, casting the problem as a threat to both sides. While Iraqi government officials and media portrayed the visit as an overall success, media close to the government expressed reservations about Syria's reliability as an ally. Syria for its part reiterated its objections to the presence of the Multinational Forces in Iraq, but nonetheless called the visit a success, drawing attention to agreements to import Iraqi fuel.

During the visit, Prime Minister Al-Maliki sought to enlist Syria's aid in Iraq's fight against terrorism. Iraqi leaders and media have long complained that Syria has served as a staging area for insurgents seeking to enter Iraq.

Al-Maliki said during an interview with Syrian television, for example, that "it must be clear to the world, and it has become clear to the brothers in Syria," that terrorism represents "a dark onslaught without any values or ethics" (Syrian Space Channel TV, 22 August).

Media sources close to the Baghdad government, however, expressed doubts that Syria would prove to be a reliable ally.

A commentator in one of the dailies of Iraqi President Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan described the new phase in Syria-Iraq relations as a chance for Syria to "minimize the accusations leveled against it" but noted that any security agreement needed an "appropriate and realistic mechanism" to ensure that Syria lived up to its commitments (Kurdistani Nuwe, 23 August). The government-run channel Al-Iraqiyah reported that "the Syrian side responded favorably to (Iraq's security) demands," but added: "The real results of this visit will materialize in the upcoming stage based on what is implemented on the ground" (22 August).

In addition, Iraqi media critical of the government reported that Damascus rejected Baghdad's demand that it extradite hundreds of persons wanted in Iraq.

While the predominantly Saudi-owned Al-Arabiyah TV reported that Syria handed over 13 persons sought by Iraq (21 August), Dar al-Salam, the paper of Iraq's leading Sunni party, reported that Damascus rejected Baghdad's demand to hand over more than 300 other "politicians, military men, and Iraqi personalities opposing the Al-Maliki government" (23 August). Reporting that Al-Maliki had returned "empty-handed" from Damascus, the independent daily Al-Zaman cited an unidentified Syrian source as remarking: "Al-Maliki has forgotten that he himself, and some of the senior officials accompanying him . . . were political refugees in Syria" during the Saddam era (22 August).

A further point of contention was the presence of the Multinational Forces (MNF), which Al-Maliki insisted were in Iraq with the government's approval while Syria pushed for a timetable for their withdrawal.

Al-Maliki said during his interview with Syrian television that the extension of the presence of the MNF had been "approved by all of the political blocs in the government and the Council of Representatives" (Syrian Space Channel TV, 22 August).

While the privately-owned Syrian daily Al-Watan played down the "contentious" MNF issue, saying that both sides were eager to highlight "points of agreement" (23 August), official Syrian sources continued to put heavy emphasis on a timetable for the MNF withdrawal as a precondition for Iraqi security, stability, and reconciliation (SANA, 20 August; Al-Thawrah, Tishrin, Al-Watan, 21 August). The joint statement issued at the end of the talks was closer to Baghdad's stance, stressing as a precondition for the MNF withdrawal a "political and security atmosphere" enabling Baghdad to assume responsibility for protecting its citizens (SANA, 22 August). Syria Emphasizes Economic Agreements

On the Syrian side, officials and media portrayed the meetings as a success, highlighting several economic agreements, the most prominent of which dealt with the export of Iraqi fuel to Syria.

Syrian Prime Minister Itri said of Al-Maliki's visit that it was "important in its implications and symbolism and successful in its results" (SANA, 22 August). He also highlighted the prevailing "fraternal" spirit and Syria's desire to "move forward to broader horizons" between the two countries. Syrian media widely reported agreements to link Iraq's Akkas gas field with the Syrian Dayr al-Zawr refinery and to "rehabilitate the oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Banyas" (SANA, Tishrin, 22 August). This OSC product is based exclusively on the content and behavior of selected media and has not been coordinated with other US Government components.
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Napoleon, Bush & the Republic Militant

My piece on "Pitching the Imperial Republic," comparing Napoleon's fiasco in Egypt to Bush's quagmire in Iraq (since he likes historical analogies) is now available at Tomdispatch.com. Please link back to Tom's site if you reference it.

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Military Coup Planned for Iraq?

A rumor is circulating among well-connected and formerly high-level Iraqi bureaucrats in exile in places like Damascus that a military coup is being prepared for Iraq. I received the following from a reliable, knowledgeable contact. There is no certitude that this plan can or will be implemented. That it is being discussed at high levels seems highly likely.

"There is serious talk of a military commission (majlis `askari) to take over the government. The parties would be banned from holding positions, and all the ministers would be technocrats, so to speak. . . [The writer indicates that attempts have been made to recruit cabinet members from the ranks of expatriate technocrats.]

The six-member board or commission would be composed on non-political former military personnel who are presently not part of the government OR the military establishment, such as it is in Iraq at the moment. It is said that the Americans are supporting this behind the scenes.

The plan includes a two-year period during which political parties would not be permitted to be part of the government, but instead would prepare and strengthen the parties for an election which would not have lists, but real people running for real seats. The two year period would be designed to take control of security and restore infrastructure.

. . .[I]t is another [desperate plan], but one which many many Iraqis will support, since they are sick of their country being pulled apart by the "imports" - Maliki, Allawi, Jaafari et al. The military group is composed of internals, people who have the goal of securing the country even at the risk of no democracy, so they say. "

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Hillary develops Foot in Mouth Disease on Dumping al-Maliki

PM Nuri al-Maliki responded to Senator Carl Levin's (D-Michigan) call for him to be unseated, and Bush's failure to support him on Tuesday by unwisely getting hot under the collar and saying he can find other friends in the world to support his endeavor. I predicted that Levin's unwise and inappropriate comment (in a conference call with Tel Aviv!-- Americans have no clue about Middle Eastern politics) would elicit an angry response. Levin managed to make it look as though he were ordered by the Israeli government to see al-Maliki gotten rid of because he was making economic deals with Syria (thus strengthening the latter). I underline that such an interpretation is unfounded, but that is how many in the region see it. Levin is usually sure-footed and careful on Middle East issues, including especially Iraq, so I can't understand why he wants to appoint himself secretary of state all of a sudden.

The serial episodes of unwisdom are lengthening and feeding on one another. Now Hillary Clinton has urgedthat al-Maliki be unseated.

But as Farah Stockman of the Boston Globe and Damien Cave of the NYT point out, it may not be easy for parliament to dump al-Maliki. And, Senator Clinton should be more careful about this sort of thing. Here's a scenario: al-Maliki survives and is PM in January 2009, and Hillary is inaugurated as US president. She now has to deal with him in arranging for an orderly withdrawal of US troops. She needs him, depends on his sway with Shiite militias to have them avoid harassing our troops on their way through the Shiite south to Kuwait. And he should put himself out to help her at that point. . . why?

Of course, al-Maliki's survival is a little unlikely (see above), but it is not out of the bounds of the possible and wisdom would dictate taking that possibility into account.

Presidential candidates should not box themselves in on foreign policy issues by making categorical statements of this sort. Hillary Clinton has to stop talking like a junior senator and start thinking like a president if she wants to succeed abroad.

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Fox does unto Iran as it Did unto Iraq

Rupert Murdoch wants to kill your 18 year-olds in a fruitless war with Iran. Robert Greenwald's video shows how Faux Cable News is running the same scam on Iran that it ran on Iraq, with side by side footage so you can see the Goebbels techniques at work. Liberals don't like anything that smacks of censorship, but I really think our body public won't be safe from this nefarious media conspiracy until we mount an effective campaign of advertiser boycott against the corporations who underwrite this fascist horse manure.




Originally posted at Fox Attacks.

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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Bush, Sistani back off Support for al-Maliki;
Iraq, Syria, seek Energy Cooperation

When pressed on the future of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, Bush declined to back him as forcefully as in the past. He said it was up to the Iraqis to decide. I don't think things look good for al-Maliki.

Al-Quds al-`Arabi [pdf] reports in Arabic that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is "disgusted" with the al-Maliki government. He complains that it has 'filled his heart with pus' by donning his robes and then neglecting to establish security or provide services to the people.

If Sistani has soured so badly on al-Maliki, he really could be in trouble. The old man still has enormous moral authority.

And, if both Bush and Sistani have given up on him, it is hard to see how he can survive.

Residents of the city of Khalis staged a big demonstration against the lack of security and constant mortar barrages. When a US convoy came through, they maintain, the soldiers tried to disperse their demonstration and wounded 17 or so persons with gunfire. The US military denies it. After the convoy left, the demonstration continued. This incident is a little window into what the Iraqi street is thinking, which is that the al-Maliki government and the US military owe them security, and they aren't receiving it from them.

Alexandra Zavis of the LA Times has a truly excellent report on Dora district in Baghdad, where Sunni Arab guerrillas are under siege by the US military and fear Shiite encroachments from the east. Getting a story like this in present circumstances was no easy thing and we have seen relatively little recent reporting from the ground. The article shows clearly the conceptual confusion in the US military, of seeing Dora-based militants as "al-Qaeda" and as foreign to the neighborhood. Many of the guerrillas are mostly just local good ol' boys, folks, and that is the reason they can hide so effectively from the US in their daytime civvies.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that, as expected, the deal offered to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was more security in return for greater economic cooperation. (See also the OSC press summary below).

UPI reports that the cooperation focused on reviving the oil pipeline from Iraq through Syria, and on linking Iraq to the Syrian (and Arab) gas pipeline network. It should be noted that if the Syrian oil pipeline could be reopened, the tolls would amount to hundreds of millions of dollars a year for Damascus. In a good year, the Iraqi petroleum pipeline was worth a billion dollars a year to Turkey.

Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani has overseen the building of a new pipeline to Turkey through northern Iraq, which will be guarded by a new protection force, and Iraq hopes also to begin pumping from the Kirkuk fields again soon. I suppose the success or failure of this effort would tell us whether the revival of the Syrian pipeline is feasible.

A Sunni family of 7 was brutally cut down on Tuesday in Mahaweel by (presumably) a Shiite death squad. A lot of the ethnic feuding in Iraq has been caused by Saddam Hussein's Arabization programs, of planting Sunni Arab populations in Shiite or Kurdish areas. Northern Babil province is like that. The displaced Shiites have come back for their old land and homes, and want to chase the Sunni Arabs out of them. Now, establishing a Sunni Arab ring around south and west Baghdad is important to the Sunni Arab guerrillas, while Shiite militias want to extend their sway north from Hilla. Competition over land and resources was also important to the Sunni Arab guerrilla bombings of those Yazidi villages, where McClatchy says the stench of death still hangs in the air.

DPA/ VOA report:


In political developments, the so-called Sadrist bloc, loyal to Shiite radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, proposed Tuesday a new political initiative that could possibly end country's impasse, a Sadrist legislator told VOI.

The Sadr bloc have walked out of Premier Nuri al-Maliki's cabinet after the latter failed to force the US military to set a timeline for withdrawal.

"The initiative rests on collective participation and is composed of a consultative body to consider critical decisions in the country," Falah Shanshal said.

"The body would comprise 15 persons from all political groups based on parliamentary representation," he added.

He claimed that their initiative so far have been met with approval by most representatives of the political blocs.

"All minorities will be represented in this suggested consultative body," Shanshal said, adding that the decisions of the body, which will mainly monitor the work of state institutions, would be debated in parliament or by the cabinet."


At the Napoleon's Egypt blog: "Bonaparte orders Dissidents Beheaded." And we thought beheading was only something al-Qaeda does.

At the Global Affairs Blog, the USG Open Source Center summarizes Taiwanese reports on economic development in Kyrgyzstan & Uzbekistan and on geopolitical rivalry over Central Asia between Russia, China and the US.

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al-Hayat: al-Duri Seeks Political Role, Turns on Salafis

Al-Hayat [Life] reports in Arabic that the Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri wing of the Baath Party (one of four major Baath factions) has decided to break with the Salafi Jihadis ('al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia') and to open negotiations with the Iraqi government and with the American military. So said Baath figure Wisam al-Jash`ami in a telephone interview.

If true, this development is surprising, since al-Duri had been the most hard line of the 4 Baath cell leaders about rejecting political negotiations, and he refused to allow his faction to participate in a planned Baath congress in Damascus last winter on the grounds that formalizing the Iraqi Baath in a conference might lead to negotiations with the Americans. Of course, the whole report could be disinformation aimed at demoralizing the Mosul Baath Party, which is loyal to al-Duri. Just a month ago, al-Quds al-Arabi (Arab Jerusalem) carried the following report, translated by the USG Open Source Center:


' Iraqi Izzat al-Duri's Bath Party Calls for Conference of Anti-Occupation Forces
Report by Hani Ashur, datelined Baghdad: "Ba'thists, Islamists. and Resistance Factions to Attend a Damascus Conference Next Week, Conference Will be Attended by Al-Duri's Wing, While Yunus al-Ahmad's Wing Has Not Been Invited."
Al-Quds al-Arabi (Internet Version-WWW)
Saturday, July 21, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Baghdad - Reports citing Iraqi figures say that a conference of Iraqi forces that oppose the occupation and represent Ba'thist and Islamic sides and armed factions will be held (in Damascus) from Monday 23 July 2007 to Wednesday 25 July 2007 to unify the efforts of those who oppose the occupation and the political process in a new front.

The sources of the reports say that the Ba'th Party wing led by (Izzat) al-Duri will participate in the conference, as well as the wing of the Iraqi Ba'th Party led by Fawzi al-Rawi which is close to the Syrian Ba'th command.

The sources said that the conference will be attended by factions such as the Al-Murabitun Army, the Liberation Battalions (Kata'ib al-Tahrir), Al-Jihad, the Muhammad al-Fatih Army, the Al-Nasir Salah al-Din Brigades, the Azadi Battalions for the Liberation of Iraq, the Imam Ali Brigades, and the Al-Husayn Brigades have agreed on a united vision that adheres to the national constants that provide for thwarting the occupiers' plan and the Constitution it produced.

The sources said that the Iraqi Ba'th Party wing led by Muhammad Yunus al-Ahmad have not been invited, while political sides opposed to the political process - including the Arab National Progressive Trend (Al-Tayyar al-Taqaddumi al-Qawmi al-Arabi), Shaykh Jawad al-Khalisi, the Iraq Front for Resistance and Liberation, the Iraqi Grouping for Liberation and Construction, and the Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS) have been invited. However there have been reports that Shaykh (Harith) Al-Dari (AMS head) has not yet announced his agreement to participate in the conference, and perhaps Bashar al-Faydi, AMS spokesman, will participate.

The conference is being held at a time in which the political forces opposing the occupation have become fragmented and their names have multiplied. Six months ago the Iraq Front for Resistance and Liberation was formed as an organizational framework to unify the Iraqi resistance forces so as to liberate the country, expel the occupier, and thwart his plans. '


Moreover, it is a little unlikely that al-Duri's Baath faction was cooperating with Salafi Jihadis in the first place, such that it had to break with them.

So, I'm from Missouri on this one. The al-Hayat report doesn't sound right to me, and it may be disinformation aimed at demoralizing al-Duri's followers, and even saying that al-Duri had turned on 'al-Qaeda' might be a way of smearing him as having been an al-Qaeda collaborator.

As regular readers know, I believe the remnants of the Baath Party constitute a more important element in the guerrilla movement than is usually acknowledged.


If it were true, it would be significant.

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Syrian Newspapers Optimistic on al-Maliki Visit

The USG Open Source Center rounds up Reactions of Syrian Newspapers to the visit to Damascus of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki


Syrian Papers Expect Al-Maliki's Visit To 'Reflect Positively' on Region
Syria -- OSC Summary
Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Syrian newspapers on 21 August note the importance of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's visit to Syria and stress that the solution to Iraq's problem lies in the withdrawal of the American forces from Iraq and the achievement of political reconciliation in the country.

Damascus Tishrin in Arabic, a government-owned newspaper, says Damascus welcomed the Iraqi Prime Minister hoping his visit "will mark a new and serious stage in the relations between the two sisterly countries in all fields and help resolve all the pending issues." In a 400-word editorial by Umar Jaftali, the paper maintains that "the American occupation is the reason behind the tragedy of Iraq and all the Iraqis, not the neighboring countries, as the occupation claims."

The paper says that Syria, which is "greatly pained at the security deterioration" in Iraq, "extended its hand to the Iraqi brothers, removed all the excuses that the American occupation gave, resumed the diplomatic relations with Iraq, signed many economic cooperation agreements with Iraq and worked to activate them to serve the two countries and peoples, and hosted about 2 million displaced Iraqis and gave them special treatment."

The paper adds: "Now that Al-Maliki's visit has added a new block to the relations and cooperation between Syria and Iraq, the visit also provides an opportunity for the Iraqi prime minister to learn the Syrian viewpoint and Syria's cooperation with every measure that would end the suffering and the tragedy of the Iraqis at home and abroad."

It goes on: "There is no doubt here that the Iraqi brothers' endeavors to schedule the withdrawal of the occupation forces, up to the full removal of this occupation, and to achieve a political reconciliation, which is indispensable to strengthen the Iraqi people's ability to confront the hard circumstances, constitute the strong foundation for the unified Iraq of the future within its Arab family."

The paper concludes by saying: "Syria will not hesitate to help the Iraqi brothers fulfill their aspirations and to effectively contribute to the easing of their suffering so that Iraq can return to the Arab fold united and recovered from all the harm caused by the occupation."

Damascus: Al-Thawrah [Revolution] in Arabic, another government-owned newspaper, says when Al-Maliki decided to visit Damascus, "he realized in advance that it is the capital that is closer to Iraq on the political and popular levels, the capital that spared no effort to ease the suffering of the Iraqis as it hosts about 2 million Iraqis and shares with them its air, buildings, streets, restaurants, schools, and even universities."

In a 500-word article by Ali Qasim, the paper says: "In Damascus, Al-Maliki found and sensed facts that many have tried for long to suppress, and in some cases to distort and twist. He saw firsthand the huge efforts that Syria is making to help the Iraqis come out of their crisis, and he clearly heard the ideas and proposals, and even the bases, that can form the genuine framework for any solution in Iraq."

The paper notes that Syria from the very beginning announced its position against the occupation of Iraq and clearly determined the difficult challenges the region would face as a result of the occupation. "In this visit," the paper adds, "necessity dictates that the Iraqi prime minister rearrange the equation in light of the Syrian reading of the Iraqi situation, especially when this reading offers the true formulas that ensure Iraq's unity and stability and help the country preserve its independence and existence." It says "the Iraqi prime minister, who is facing all kinds of challenges, and who is coming under immense pressure from the occupation's administration, realizes this fact, especially when the occupation tries to blame the Iraqis and other countries in the region for its crisis and failure."

"In this climate," the paper says, "the visit appears important for the Syrian-Iraqi relations, and its results will reflect positively on the region." It concludes by saying: "The region, which is experiencing the most dangerous situation in its history, remains, with it countries and peoples, the more able to fulfill the ambitions of its peoples and determine the best ways for its relations. The starting point is the end of the occupations, from which the region is suffering."

Damascus: Al-Watan [The Nation] in Arabic, an independent newspaper, mentions some Syrian-Iraqi border incidents in which "the Americans who supervise the border on the Iraqi side deliberately spread chaos and create crises for the Syrians and then publicly accuse Syria of non-cooperation to control the border and blame it for the failure of all their policies and plans in Iraq."

In a 500-word article by Ibrahim Darraji, the paper says it hopes the Syrian officials will explain to Al-Maliki "the lack of cooperation from the other side of the border, which is controlled by the Americans, and the security and humanitarian problems this lack of cooperation creates for Syria, which has the right to complain from the failure to cooperate with it to control the border."

The paper concludes by saying: "We hope Al-Maliki will be told about all the efforts that Syria is making to control the border, including cooperation with the international organizations, such as the International Organization for Migration, to bring in experts and equipment to identify the points of weakness and strengthen the ability to discover forged documents. This is in addition to the security efforts, which led to our border forces coming under more than 100 attacks from inside Iraq and resulting in the martyrdom of six of our soldiers and the wounding of 17 others. This is what Syria is doing. What did the others offer other than further intentional chaos and plenty of accusations and lies, which appear to have become the main characteristic of the policies of many countries these days?"

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Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Second Shiite Governor Slain
Levin Calls for al-Maliki to be Unseated
al-Maliki in Damascus

Reuters reports that the governor of Muthanna province, Mohammed Ali al-Hassani, was assassinated on Monday by a roadside bomb. This killing was the second in recent days of a provincial governor from the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC). In both Muthanna and Qadisiya, the site of the other assassination, the Badr Corps paramilitary of SIIC has been locked in power struggle with the Mahdi Army of the Sadr Movement, loyal to young Shiite nationalist, Muqtada al-Sadr. SIIC and Badr are very close to Tehran, and some southern Shiites see them as unpatriotic. The Sadrists have complained that the provincial government of Muthanna is corrupt and has not delivered necessary services to the people. Since some observers don't get this right, I just want to underline that these assassinations have been strikes against Iranian influence in Iraq, by nativists probably at least loosely connected to the Sadr Movement. Likewise, if an EFP was used in the bombing, it is unlikely to have come from Iran, since Tehran has no interest in knocking off its own clients (SIIC and Badr), and, indeed, would go out of its way to protect them.

The killing of a second governor in the Shiite south is very bad news. This is the sort of thing that used to happen in al-Anbar Province. It is a sign of an increasingly virulent Shiite on Shiite power struggle between SIIC and the Sadrists, between the Badr Corps and the Mahdi Army. It is also a bad sign that the Sadrists have managed to get hold of increasingly effective roadside bombs.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was in Damascus on Monday, seeking deals with the Syrian government. He is said to have pledged to reopen an Iraqi oil pipeline through Syria if Damascus would do more to stop jihadis from infiltrating Iraq from Syrian territory.

Michigan Senator Carl Levin called Monday for the Iraqi parliament to replace al-Maliki. Even if it could be done, why does Levin think someone more effective would emerge? And the last two times you got a new PM, it took many months to form a new government. Does Iraq need that kind of paralysis at this point? I guess I don't think it is the place of American legislators to intervene in such matters. You can imagine the firestorm if a prominent French parliamentarian called on the US Congress to impeach Bush.

Farah Stockman of the Boston Globe reports on State Department attempts to keep al-Maliki in power by jawboning the various Iraqi factions in parliament, which, however, don't seem to be going very well. I think there is some question of whether the entire political system might fall apart if the elected PM keeps being replaced.

Muqtada al-Sadr was interviewed in Kufa by reporters from the Independent. Note that the US military has been spreading that propaganda line again that Muqtada had decamped to Iran. It simply is not true, as the Independent confirmed. Here are Muqtada's main points:

1. The British are being forced out of Basra by effective guerrilla tactics

2. Britain endangered its own security by attacking Iraq and thus angering the Muslim world

3. The security situation in Basra will generally improve once the British leave, though there will be some trouble because Iran is seeking influence there.

4. The Sunnis of Ramadi who have turned against the Sunni Jihadi radicals have adopted a historic position for Iraq

5. He and his movement would welcome greater United Nations involvement in Iraq

6. The days of the al-Maliki government are numbered and it will soon collapse because he is seen as an American puppet and because even the Americans are dissatisfied with him.


British officials, in response, denied that the UK was being driven out of Iraq. They maintain that the Iraqi police and military is capable of keeping order in the provinces from which they have withdrawn, and that is why they left.

Mahdi Army fighters have admitted to getting a month-long training course in insurgency tactics in south Lebanon, according to the Independent.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday, with 12 bodies discovered in the streets of the capital. Other major attacks:


"Baghdad

- Around 10 a.m., a motorbike exploded at Al-Risafi intersection (downtown Baghdad) killing one civilian and injuring 12 others.

- Around 3.30 p.m., a car bomb exploded at Sadreen square ( in Sadr city) killing 5 people and injuring 20 others.

- Around 4 p.m., a roadside bomb exploded near Zafaraniyah petrol station in Zafaraniyah ( east Baghdad) injuring 4 people.

Anbar: Yesterday afternoon , 4 mortars hit 2 houses in Al-Hesewat neighborhood ( north of Garma) which is north of Falluja killing 2 people and injuring 8 others including a woman and a child. . .

Kirkuk

- Before noon, a roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol near Sarha bridge ( 40 km south of Kirkuk ) killing 1 soldier and injuring two others. . . '


At the Napoleon's Egypt Blog: Gen. Bonaparte Defeats Ibrahim Bey at Salahiya.

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Rubin on Herat

See Barnett Rubin's latest blog entry at the Global Affairs blog, "Return from Herat: Wherein one Pessoptimist Meets Another."
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Monday, August 20, 2007

Cole in Salon:
The Poisonous Legacy of Karl Rove

My Salon column is out: The poisonous rhetorical legacy of Karl Rove

Even Fox's Chris Wallace wants to know why Bush's newly departed advisor had to paint Democrats as traitors.


Excerpt:


' [Chris] Wallace followed up by asking Rove to justify the notorious June 22, 2005, speech he gave before the New York Conservative Party, in which he alleged that Democrats were soft on terror. It is worth recalling at length what Rove said on that occasion: "Conservatives saw the savagery of 9/11 and the attacks and prepared for war; liberals saw the savagery of the 9/11 attacks and wanted to prepare indictments and offer therapy and understanding for our attackers. In the wake of 9/11, conservatives believed it was time to unleash the might and power of the United States military against the Taliban; in the wake of 9/11, liberals believed it was time to ... submit a petition."

Rove's diatribe depended for its effect on a series of deft substitutions, both explicit and implied. First, he misrepresented liberals by coding MoveOn.org, the grass-roots Internet activists who did urge alternatives to a frontal assault on the Taliban, as representative of liberal opinion generally. Then, by mentioning Democratic Party figures such as Howard Dean and Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, he implied that he was speaking about that party. Unless we assume that most Democrats are not liberals, then the attack was certainly partisan. It was also false. In polling soon after the 2001 attacks, 84 percent of self-identified liberals supported military action in response, and 80 percent of Democrats favored war against Afghanistan. Democratic members of Congress largely supported the Afghanistan war as well, with the senators voting for it unanimously. '


Read the whole thing.
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Mortar Shells Kill 10 in downtown Baghdad

US Mil organizes Sunni Neighborhood Watch

The NYT reports that the US military is setting up neighborhood militias in Sunni Arab areas, called "Guardians," to patrol and curb Salafi Jihadi gangs. Two questions come to mind. Why is it that those hundreds of thousands of Iraqi police cannot do this job (it is after all their job)? And, will the Sunni Guardians be loyal to the Shiite government of PM Nuri al-Maliki, most of whose Sunni Arabs have jumped ship?

American military thinkers and officials are saying that Britain has lost Basra, that the British departure from the city "could be ugly," and that in the aftermath a major fight among Shiite militias may break out in Iraq's only major port. The British, who seem intent on leaving over the next year, defend their work in the city. There are fears that British preparations to leave, and to allow the political and military situation in Basra to be what it will be, may enter into fierce congressional debates in the US around the awaited Sept. 15 report on Iraq by Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

The US military hasn't found any Iranian trainers in Iraq or any training camps, but like Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, that you can't find them doesn't mean they are not there. What I cannot understand is why the Pentagon needs Iranians in Iraq as a plot device. The Iraqi Badr Corps, tens of thousands strong, was trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and it has been alleged that some Badr corpsmen are still on the Iranian payroll. It is the paramilitary of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, America's chief ally in Iraq. What would the IRGC know that Badr does not? Why bother to send revolutionary guardsmen when the country is thick with Badr fighters anyway (who have all the same training)? I think the US is just embarrassed because Badr is its major ally in Iraq, and Pentagon spokesmen are over-compensating by imagining Iranian training camps inside Iraq. What an idea. I mean, don't we have, like, satellites that would see them? Wouldn't they be visible on google earth? Every day the Pentagon b.s. about Iran gets more fantastic and frantic. Methinks some people, like Patton, are upset that the politicians always pull them back and leave them one more war to fight.

The Baltimore Sun reports that the US military will draw back down the extra 30,000 troops inserted into Iraq from the escalation called 'the surge' beginning in March, 2008. Presumably Bush will attempt to influence the fall, 2008 presidential campaign by attempting to make it appear that Iraq is going well enough to allow such a draw-down. The article also addresses the Pentagon's war of words against Iran.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that moves are afoot to create a dissident alternative to the 4-party alliance (Da'wa, Supreme Council, & the 2 Kurdistan parties).

Reuters reports that:


' * BAGHDAD - Ten people were killed and 42 wounded by four mortar rounds which fell in a residential area of Shi'ite al-Obeidi district in eastern Baghdad, police said. '


McClatchy reports that police found 14 bodies in the streets of Baghdad on Sunday, victims of sectarian death squads. Other significant incidents not quoted above:

' Around 9 a.m. Several mortar shells slammed into the Green Zone.

- Around 11 a.m. A parked motorcycle bomb in Al Khulafaa square killed one civilian. . .

- Around 1:30 p.m. Gunmen stopped a bus in Bab Al Muatham area. The gunmen took 15 passengers to Al Azza area in Al Fadhil.

- Around 2 p.m. A road side bomb not far away from Mishin compound. 1 civilian was killed and 5 were injured. . .

Kirkuk . . . Two IEDs targeted police vehicles in Kirkuk. The first explosion targeted a police vehicle; police responded and sent more police vehicles to the site. Another bomb went off. 3 policemen were injured according to police.'


At the group blog, the Taliban in Afghanistan seek to rebrand themselves, and reach out to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization .

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Eagan Guest Op-Ed

A Vietnam Vet Recognizes Iraq Frustrations

In response to the NYT op-ed by specialists and sergeants on Sunday, Jerry Eagan writes with his own experiences:

Dr. Cole. In July, 1967, while back home in Indiana on "convalescent leave" from an Army hospital, I wrote a similar, albeit, shorter letter to my hometown newspaper. As these men are, I was a "grunt," an infantryman 11B -- light weapons infantryman. I'd been seriously wounded on 3 November, 1966, and was still recuperating until roughly the end of August, 1967. When I returned from convalescent leave, therefore, in August, 1967, the doctor who "ran" the hospital informed me that since I "liked to write letters, about the war, and how we're losing the war," that I had "too much time on my hands." I was being returned to duty. He said he wished he could return me to an infantry unit, but that wasn't possible because my right arm, which had been severely damaged by an AK-47 round, was too weak to even slide the bolt back on an M-16 rifle.

Someone had apparently turned me in, either to Army Counter Intelligence, or the FBI, because I was seen as "anti-war" and who knows ... a commie? At any rate, I arrived mainly independently, but with some discussions with some other soldiers who were convalescing ... that the war was lost. That was 1967. Of course, coming around to that conclusion wouldn't have **happened** had I not BEEN to Vietnam, and seen things which caused me serious "cognitive dissonance."

This essay by these soldiers in their letter to the NYT is deeply insightful of what the more intelligent soldiers on the ground see: dramatic, glaring, sometimes nearly mad incongruities between what must be happening in Iraq, on the ground, and what comes out of the White House. In the last month or so, many reports, including yours, have highlighted that a tactical maneuver on the ground, ostensibly fashioned by General Petraeus, has begun, whereby we are Sunni tribal sheiks to fight "al-Qaeda" in Iraq. And, Petraeus, and his Yul Brenner buddy, General Odierno, have touted great successes in whipping al-Qaeda.

The unspoken leaden shoe that's possibly going to drop soon is: by arming Sunni Arab tribal sheiks, we now have a "proxy army" which is effectively being used against al-Qaeda (Salafist) terrorists). The successes racked up to these new proxy units seems impressive. I read one article which indicated these tribal Sunni militia, were given 10 rounds to fire. I guess someone thought, they can't get into too much trouble with ten rounds. But unspoken, of course, and generally unnoticed by most American journalists save Michael Ware, of CNN, is what these tribal units will do once al-Qaeda is effectively broken!

I'd contend, every Iraqi shiite knows exactly what these Sunni militia will be used for once al-Qaeda is broken: namely, they will join the Americans in fighting Shiite militia. As you know, I suggested to a Washington Post writer he zero in on what's happening in southern Iraq -- Basra, specifically -- with the Brits. 34 at least killed this year alone. When the Brits leave Iraq (perhaps all of them by year's end), what happens then? The Brits have always been in Basra; they have a distinctly different occupational role learned from years in Northern Ireland, that is more refined than the typical American steamroller approach. And yet, in 2007, they've suffered greater losses, are hunkered down in their equivalent of "the Green Zone," and appear to be more than eager to get the hell out of Iraq.

When they leave, the U.S. will see a yawning vacuum open up in Basra. The fact is, if any section of Iraq appears to be headed towards "Shia-stan," it's Basra and surrounding area. Will the U.S. just meekly allow that to happen? To allow rampant internecine warfare between Shia militia consume Basra city and province? Or will we send in a large force, to quell such violence, and keep that vital sector of Iraq open for oil shipments, production, etc? If we go, what happens up north? In Baghdad and other localities, which are supposed to be nailed down and made more secure by a greater American military presence?

The fact that most Americans don't yet get seems to be: the Shia of Iraq have been abused, discriminated against, persecuted, tortured and slaughtered by Sunnis. The Shia of Iraq are well aware of the 13 centuries of discrimination, vilification, and persecution they've suffered from a Sunni dominated Islamic power structure across the Hub of Islam. They know darned well they're going to be squeezed by those same Sunni Islamic forces, when and if the Americans leave. I think the "if" is really no longer a question: the "when" is what's being hammered out now by Congress and Bush.

I think the body language I saw, when al-Maliki and Ahmadinejad walked out of their meeting several weeks ago, two Shia Iranian/Iraqi men walking hand in hand, with al-Maliki so relaxed it looked like he'd dropped some Quaaludes, told me every- thing I need to know about what will happen if the Brits leave, and the Americans want to go into Basra. They'll run into a wall. It's possible al-Maliki will actually ask for Iranian assistance in quelling the internecine violence in the South. Will Bush allow that? What shock waves would that send coursing through our Administration, if Maliki DOES ask Iranian help in the south of Iraq? How could Bush allow that to happen?

Bush and Petraeus, at their different levels, appear to have already decided to side with the Sunnis. At the higher level, Secretary of State Rice and Secretary of Defense Gates talked directly to the Saudis. A massive $20 billion arms transfer deal was proposed to sweeten the pot for the Saudis, so they would step on the suicide bombers going from Saudi Arabia to Iraq ... and also, to arm them for an eventual fight against Iran. Regardless of whether strategic or tactical in nature, these decisions have clearly been seen by Iraqi Shiites. They know the forces of Sunnism have once again been arrayed against them. They have seen it in Lebanon, and they have begun to see it with the arming of Sunni militia.

The question must be asked then: how do individuals such as yourself, get air time on CNN, and other networks (since most people don't spend much more than 30 minutes a day watching the news), to explain to the American people that not only have we found ourselves in the middle of a civil conflict ... we've now actually begun arming/aligning ourselves with one side. And, with the side which once again shows that American foreign policy is hypocritical. The national elections of Iraq elected individuals who are predominantly Shia or Shia aligned. The Sunnis have once again bailed out of the political process. Significant violence will occur when those British forces leave. If al-Qaeda IS effectively hammered into silence, the real fighting will begin. Sunni against Shia.

That fighting will be the proxy level war we've decided must be fought to "win" Iraq. I'd contend, we've already begun our war against Iran. Arming Sunni tribal sheiks and Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Gulf nations, are the opening rounds of our war with Iran. Bush will do all he can to instigate an Iranian military response. I'd guess, in the near future, sometime this year, if Sunnis begin battling Shia in open militia combat, al-Maliki will ask Iran for Quds Brigade support in the south. Bush won't allow that. He'll intervene, hoping -- hoping -- he can finally precipitate an open military strike against Iran.

If you agree with this position, I'd say: unless individuals such as yourself get out there more, and speak this very real possibility, the American people will be slammed into a crisis of Bush's making. He will not allow Iraq to "go into Iran's sphere of influence," and if that's the case, he will use force to deny them that maneuver. By then, it will be too late. We'll be in a new war. This President has to have a scape goat to lay this terrible Iraqi fiasco on. Iran will be it. I hope that if you agree, you'll try and get out there more, to try and explain this dark future we may have in store for ourselves.

Once again, the Iraqi people will be the ones doing most of the dying. This criminal President knows no bounds when it comes to aggrandizing his plans. He does, after all, have a pipeline to Jesus.

Jerry Eagan
Silver City, NM

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Sunday, August 19, 2007

Al-Hashimi's Party will not Rejoin Government For Now;
NYT Op-Ed from Soldiers on the Ground

As Bill Maher has quipped, we have had a balanced set of commentaries on the Iraq War on television news. We have heard from the generals and the retired generals. Today at the NYT we hear from some specialists and sergeants. In a thoughtful, analytically precise, and informed essay, they lament the pie in the sky thinking in Washington, admit that 'hearts and minds' are not being won and are unlikely to be, and decry contradictory US policies trying to please everyone that end up alienating everyone. They point to the massive number of Iraqis displaced abroad and the similar number internally displaced, to the lack of electricity, services, potable water, and above all security. They highlight how unreliable they find the Iraqi military, which they think penetrated at the street level by Shiite militiamen and their supporters. They tell a chilling story of a US patrol hit by a roadside bomb between two Iraqi military checkpoints, and almost certainly set by their Iraqi 'allies' or with their knowledge. One of the six suffered a severe head wound while in action during the period they were writing the piece. We can't be too grateful for what these guys are doing for us. The essay is a major part of seeing through their duty to the American people, since in a democracy, for the people to have a clear-eyed view of the situation is essential to informed policy-making. I hope they will let us in the blogosphere know if we can help Staff Sergeant Jeremy Murphy and his family in the wake of his injury, which he is expected to survive.

This essay describes an Iraq I recognize from reading the Iraqi newspapers every day and watching Arabic satellite television. It has the Byzantine political intrigues, the seedy militiamen, the back-stabbing and deal-making, the electricity-deprived tenement dwellers baking in the August sun, the 4 million homeless families, the incommensurate political goals of the factions. It does not depict 'a war we could win.' Money graf:


' In the end, we need to recognize that our presence may have released Iraqis from the grip of a tyrant, but that it has also robbed them of their self-respect. They will soon realize that the best way to regain dignity is to call us what we are — an army of occupation — and force our withdrawal. '


The 4-party coalition backing PM Nuri al-Maliki met Sunday. They managed to convince Sunni VP Tariq al-Hashimi to attend. I saw him on Aljazeera after the meeting. He said that the possibility of the Iraqi Accord Front, his political bloc, joining the 4-party alliance was not broached. He said that for the moment at least, that was in any case not going to happen. Al-Hashimi has a list of 6 disagreements between Sunni Arabs and the al-Maliki government that won't be easy to sweep under the rug.

VP al-Hashimi (Sunni Arab) released on Saturday photos of Iraqi prisoners held by the government in wire cages, provoking outrage. Al-Hashimi said that the problem would be resolved. At one point he tried to comfort a prisoner by pointing out that at least the penitentiary was safe, whereas Iraqis free on the outside are not.

Hint: When the vice president of your country thinks you are safer and better off in a wire cage prison than you would be walking free in the streets of your capital, that is not a good sign.

The LA Times observes that:

' Missiles and mortar rounds Saturday struck areas of Baghdad and central Iraq where violence and civilian deaths had decreased in recent weeks, raising concern that insurgents were adapting their strategy around an increase in the number of U.S. troops. '


Oxfam points to a humanitarian crisis in Iraq as the medical personnel flee the country.

I have been very worried that the referendum over the future of Kirkuk scheduled for December of 2007 has the potential for tearing northern Iraq apart. The upshot of Liz Sly's article at the Trib, reporting from Kurdistan, is that the crisis may not occur just because the rest of the Iraqis are dragging their feet on arranging for the referendum. Mostly, postponing crises is unwise because they are just more difficult when they are addressed later on. In this case, foot-dragging is probably all to the good. Iraq cannot take another big meltdown at this point.

As many as 200 victims of the massive bombings of Yazidi villages were left in the rubble for lack of resources to attempt a rescue, according to one Iraqi official.

Steve Clemons on 'Michael Ledeen's Dangerous Iran Obsession.' You say to yourself, but Ledeen is a crank, he couldn't possibly be taken seriously in Washington. Then you remember how we got into the Iraq War, with such fringe elements actually running the Pentagon. Ledeen allegedly spends a lot of time on the phone with Karl Rove, 'Bush's brain.'

And many thanks in advance to Steve for the nice event he has arranged in DC on Friday for my new book, 'Napoleon's Egypt.'

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Ammar al-Hakim

The USG Open Source Center translates a recent speech of Ammar al-Hakim, who is functioning as acting leader of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council while his father is undergoing treatment for cancer. Via BBC World Monitoring

"July 22, 2007 Sunday

Iraq's Ammar al-Hakim addresses Martyr Day rally 21 July, 2007

[Speech by Ammar Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, secretary general of the Shahid al-Mihrab Foundation, on the occasion of "Martyr Day" in Baghdad -live]

Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic at 0645 gmt on 21 July carries live from Baghdad a 32-minute speech by Ammar Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, secretary general of the Shahid al-Mihrab Foundation, on the occasion of "Martyr Day," which coincides with the fourth anniversary of the "martyrdom" of Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim. The video shows people waving Iraqi flags and holding pictures of Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim, in addition to other banners. They are heard shouting religious slogans with drums beating in the background.

Al-Hakim begins by invoking God's peace and blessings on Prophet Muhammad, Ali Ibn-Abi-Talib, Fatimah al-Zahra', the two imams Al-Hasan and Al-Husayn, all other imams of the Prophet's family, the imam for whose return the Shi'is are waiting, religious authorities, the martyr religious authority Shahid al-Mihrab [Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim], and all martyrs of Iraq who lost their lives during the era of the deposed regime or during the current violence and terrorism.

He praises the martyr's supporters for their "firm stand and confrontation of those who sought to turn Baghdad into a city of ghosts," and says: "Our people's massive march clearly shows that our people will not give in to terrorism, be subdued by the plots of enemies, abandon their great political project, or quit their accomplishments. They will not give in to frustration and retreat."

He salutes the citizens of Baghdad in their entire sectarian and political spectrum, and says: "You have been accustomed on this occasion every year to listen to the speech of Al-Sayyid Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim who used to thank and salute you as well as to present to you our political view of the situation, but, due to his health condition, he is unable to be among you in person today. However, he called me a few minutes ago to ask me to convey to you his greetings, thanks, appreciation, and pride in you all." He adds that Al-Sayyid is anxious to be with you any time his physicians allow him to do so.

He says: "We are gathered here to eulogize Shahid al-Mihrab and all Iraq's martyrs and to renew loyalty and allegiance to Shahid al-Mihrab and his policy, one of moderation, tolerance, freedom, independence, and justice." He says that it is worth remembering on this day some of the martyr's thoughts and characteristics. He goes on to say that the martyr was a person of wide-ranging interests; he was a scholar, interpreter, historian, and knowledgeable of all religious and humanitarian matters. Besides, he was a distinguished political leader and an outstanding military commander as he fought the deposed regime with his brothers. He was also a good father who embraced his sons, and was methodical in his thoughts, the building of institutions, making of decisions, and in public performance. He used to depend on the nation with all its popular bases and masses in his political and social action because of his deep faith in it. Also, he was frank and transparent with his people in every detail of his moves to the extent that he lost his life for this frankness, which he never abandoned. The martyr was objective and a man of deep thinking. He never made a decision without reviewing all its consequences thoroughly. He never complimented any one at the expense of the common interest. He also defended the interests of the entire Iraqis.

He continues: "On this day, we should clearly address our brothers in the elected Iraqi Government to tell them that we support them, stand on their side, thank them for their efforts, and express our understanding of their circumstances, suffering, and siege. Yet, this should not prevent us from demanding the rights of our people." He adds: "We ask the government to respond positively to the demands of the families of martyrs, orphans, widows, and those who sacrificed themselves. We demand that they be aided, supported, and provided with the basics of a decent life. We cannot continue to watch the difficult and miserable circumstances which many of the martyrs' families are still facing after the lapse of four years. The institutions that were established by the esteemed government should play an effective role in taking care of the families of the martyrs, whether those who lost their lives during the deposed regimes' era or in the current violence and terrorism after the fall of the regime."

He says: "We are currently facing critical and enormous challenges, which threaten our Iraqi experiment. We cannot face, defy, or tackle these problems without taking the following steps: Rendering the political project in Iraq a success, strengthening national cohesiveness, reinforcing real partnership, providing equal opportunities for all Iraqis, and guaranteeing the rights of all Iraqis under the state's order and Constitution. We must focus on the crucial Iraqi people's will in determining their future through electoral polls. We will not accept or give in to any encroachment on the constitutional system. We stress the need for a national Iraqi solution that is independent, original, and a produce of all effective powers in the Iraqi arena. We also emphasize that the solution should be a comprehensive one that satisfies all sides under the authority of the law and Constitution and deals with the apprehensions and concerns of all parties under this authority. Additionally, we emphasize that any solution to the Iraqi problem should stem from bolstering the unity of Iraqis, not widening the gap or division between them. We must unite, because unity is the real key to resolving the many issues that we are facing today."

He adds: "Such a solution can only be reached or the handling of issues can only succeed when all effective Iraqi forces meet together, taking Iraq's interests into foremost consideration. With this in mind, a real partnership among all Iraqi forces and society components will then be concluded. The meeting of these forces should open opportunities for partnership for all Iraqis and lay down realistic solutions under the principles and within the frameworks to which we referred earlier. Furthermore, the Iraqi national, free, and independent will should be utilized in the process of reform."

Al-Hakim continues: "We welcome all the regional and international efforts, particularly those of the brother Arab states and the dear Islamic countries, provided that they conform with this view and principle and maintain the priorities that we have set for the sake of achieving political and security stability in our country, accomplishing development and construction, and providing services to the citizens, so that Iraq will regain its natural rank in the region and the entire world."

He adds: "We will work together with the numerous and various national forces in Iraq to end foreign presence in the country and strengthen Iraqi sovereignty through peaceful and political resistance and by firmly building our security forces in terms of training, recruitment, armament, and all factors of success. We support the building of the Iraqi foundation on strong bases in order to fill the gap, not building alternative institutions that might widen the Iraqi crack or embarrass the Iraqi project in the future."

He continues: "The Saddamists, takfiris, and extremists are held responsible in the first degree for the Iraqis' suffering, killing, eradication, torturing, and violation of their honour and holy shrines. We will not allow or respond to the calls for the return of the Saddamist Ba'th Party. However, we have no problem coexisting with ordinary Ba'thists who have merged into society or those who have not yet merged, but want to, to play their part in society similar to other Iraqis. The Saddamist Ba'th should not have a sensitive role or rank in our country, and we will not allow it to happen.

He says: "The local and provincial popular committees that we are witnessing today are the strong fortress and big power that the Iraqi Government can utilize in the process of law enforcement and in monitoring the moves of those who infringe on the law. These committees are a critical mainstay and vital force to build Iraq and regain its security and stability. These committees are located in all areas and comprise the entire Iraqi spectrum, which, if they operate in cooperation with the Iraqi security institution and according to a certain mechanism that is laid down by this institution, will benefit the institution and contribute to the achievement of security and stability."

He adds: "The provinces of South Baghdad, Baghdad, Kurdistan, and other provinces in any Iraqi area are the alternative for which we opted, and the one that we will continue to adopt. We will establish a federal system in Iraq, because we believe that the system of provinces will open the door for tackling many of the issues that we are currently facing. This system will open real opportunities for all Iraqi citizens in all areas for an effective partnership in managing their affairs. It will also strengthen affiliation to the homeland through opening opportunities for a good life and real partnership for the citizens. Thus, the people will stand closer together and take into consideration the special needs of each area. This is why we believe that this system is the genuine solution to the problems that we are facing. I call on you, dear brothers, to be seriously prepared to form these provinces within the timeframe set by the Iraqi House of Representatives."

He continues: "Speaking on your behalf, we newly express our pressing desire and serious will to be open to Arab and Islamic regional countries as well as to the world community, because we believe in the principle of mutual interests, regional and international partnership, and in the actual interests that bind us to our brothers and dear ones. We renew our pressing desire for openness and joint action. We call on these states to come closer to Iraq, extend further cooperation, show understanding of its circumstances, and stand on the Iraqis' side. However big are the problems, they will one day be solved. Iraq and the Iraqis will continue to exist. We hope that these countries would take their strategic interests into consideration and extend their hands to our great people."

He says: "We call on our esteemed government to shoulder greater responsibilities in order to render services, establish security and stability, and proceed on the path of construction and implementing development projects. We are very concerned over the slow performance of some ministries and their negligence of the programmes and policies set for them to implement projects and spend the funds that were allocated for these projects."

He adds: "The issue of the religious authority will continue to be essential, representing a feature or image of this good country. It also represents a safety valve. At the top of this authority is Imam Al-Sistanti, may God keep him safe. I call on you dear brothers and on all the honourable people of Iraq to rally around this authority and adhere to its general directives, which all fall in the interest of the entire Iraqis and stem from national feelings, as you know well. Imam Al-Sistani is the one who always says that our Sunni brothers and kinfolk are akin to us. This is the logic of our religious authority."

He continues: "Samarra is the bleeding wound in the hearts of all honourable and national Iraqis. The Iraqi Government should shoulder its responsibilities in maintaining security on the road to and in the city of Samarra, and it should expedite the reconstruction of the two holy shrines. The government should hold the delinquent persons accountable for these disgusting crimes, whether they be terrorists, collaborators, or government officials."

He pledges to the Shahid al-Mihrab, saying: "We will continue to be loyal to this march and defend its accomplishments. We will not kneel, yield, or retreat, but will proceed cohesively forward day after day and extend the hands of love and fraternity to all Iraqis, the region's countries, and all the world's countries. We want to establish an ideal experiment and to strengthen our values in this country whose great people, with their deeply entrenched civilization and rich history, are capable of achieving this end, God willing."

He concludes his speech by thanking the masses that attended the rally.

Source: Al-Iraqiyah TV, Baghdad, in Arabic 0645 gmt 21 Jul 07"

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Saturday, August 18, 2007

Maliki Seeks Sunni Support in Tikrit
4 Party Coalition slammed as Elitist Expatriates

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the purpose of PM Nuri al-Maliki's visit to Tikrit (Saddam Hussein's old home base) was to convince some tribal notables there to accept ministerial positions in his government. The main Sunni Arab party, the Iraqi Accord Front, is boycotting al-Maliki's government, and he is therefore desperate to find some Sunnis somewhere who would be willing to join his government. The problem is that although there are prominent Sunni Arab figures in Tikrit, they would not represent anyone but themselves if they joined the government. The Iraqi Accord Front won 44 seats in parliament. A seat is 40,000 votes, so the IAF represents 1,760,0000 persons out of Iraq's 11 million voters. Some son of a tribal sheikh in Tikrit represents no one but himself and maybe some close family members.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that the formation of a 4-party bloc to support Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was not met with enthusiasm by the rest of the political spectrum. The Sadr Movement sniffed that the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and the Islamic Call (Da'wa) party do not represent the Iraqi people and that these were expatriate parties that came to Iraq from the outside. [SIIC was formed in Tehran in 1982 and was based in Iran for most of its existence; Many Da'wa leaders also were in Iran in the 1980s and 1990s, though some were in London, Damascus, Beirut and Kuwait. There were local Da'wa branches in Iraq, though.]

The Sadrists said that the new bloc was just Kurdish and Shiite allies, who were unrepresentative of the whole country, and that there needed to be a non-sectarian coalition.

Hasan al-Shammari, head of the Fadhila bloc in parliament (15 seats) said that their ministers have limited portfolios and that they could not be expected to resolve Iraq's problems.

Izzat Shahbandar of the Iraqi National List agreed. He said that since their inception SIIC and Da'wa had attempted to monopolize political power in Iraq, and this new bloc was just more of the same.

Gareth Porter carefully takes apart the Pentagon's mostly gotten-up case for Iran being a major problem for US troops in Iraq. There has been no evidence that the highest levels of the Iranian government give direct support to the killing of US troops, but Gen. Odierno implies there has been. The US has mounted more operations against the Mahdi Army, but blames consequent increase in US casualties from that quarter on increased Iranian influence. It is a shell game.

And Warren Strobel of McClatchy explains just how dangerous it is for Bush to play chicken with Iran at this juncture. Money grafs:


' "The coercion ... undermines diplomacy. And once diplomacy is undermined, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy," said Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. By early 2008, "You're in a position where you have a series of escalatory measures ... And then the military option becomes something you can consider," Takeyh said. '


David Enders on the political paralysis in Basra, where the governor was unseated by a vote of no confidence by the governing council, but has refused to step down. His party, Fadhila, has special access to gasoline smuggling and embezzlement from the oil industry, since so much of it is exported via Basra, the port for the major oil producing region of the south.

McClatcy rounds up political violence in Iraq on Friday

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Friday, August 17, 2007

4-Party Coalition for al-Maliki;
Basra Deteriorating;
9 Dead in Baghdad Bombing

Four parties have formed a coalition in parliament to support Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. They are the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, the Islamic Call (Da`wa) Party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. The parties are led respectively by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, Nuri al-Maliki, Massoud Barzani, and Jalal Talabani.

The coalition failed to attract the Sunni fundamentalist bloc, the Iraqi Accord Front, which has 44 seats and which has withdrawn from the al-Maliki government. It apparently also does not include about 30 self-described independents who had earlier been inside the Shiite fundamentalist United Iraqi Alliance.

The coalition is designed to exclude two Shiite parties, the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) (15 seats), which is strong in Basra, and the Sadr Movement (32 seats) of Muqtada al-Sadr. While both parties have been problematic in the behavior in parliament and on the streets, I'm not sure that, in a consensual political system like Iraq's, it is wise to exclude major groups.

One problem with the new coalition, according to Al-Hayat writing in Arabic is that it probably has no more than 110 seats in parliament, 28 less than a simple majority, and so does not protect al-Maliki from losing a vote of no confidence should one be called. While that difficulty would be resolved if they could attract the Iraqi Accord Front to join them, this development seems unlikely at the moment.

I think one hope of the American authorities that encouraged this coalition was that if they could dissociate al-Maliki from Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army, that would make him more palatable to the Sunni Arabs. This calculation may have been incorrect.

If al-Maliki moves away from Muqtada, he is more dependent on the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), which the Sunni Arabs code as an Iranian organization, and on its Badr Corps paramilitary, which the Sunni Arabs accuse of engaging in death squad activity and ethnic cleansing of Sunnis.

Moreover, SIIC is dedicated to two political principles that are anathema to the Sunni Arabs. One is that US troops should remain in Iraq for as long as they are needed and the second is that a Shiite super-province should be formed in the south, on analogy to the Kurdistan Regional Government.

In contrast, the Iraqi Accord Front strongly opposes the formation of any more regional governments, fearing it will break up the country and concentrate oil wealth in other than Sunni areas. And it wants a timetable for US withdrawal.

Ironically, the IAF figures appear to be considering an alliance with the Sadr Movement, the very group the Americans had assumed was ruining their relationship to al-Maliki!

The Sunni Arab parties at a total of 55, the Sadrists at 32, and Fadhila at 15, could get to 102. If they could attract the Shiite independents, that would put them to 132, in striking distance of a majority. They might find some support from members of the Iraqi National List (25 seats) of Iyad Allawi, who gets along with the Sunnis but not with Muqtada. Any such coalition strikes me as likely to be highly unstable and to have difficulties surviving very long.

The Iraqi constitution specifies that when a new government has to be formed, the president must first ask the largest bloc in parliament to form it. In the past two instances, that has been the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance, which, however, now appears to be falling apart.

The death toll in the bombing of two Yazidi villages in the north has risen to over 400. Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih visited, and said that it looked to him like the area had been hit by an atomic bomb.

Ben Lando of UPI explains the political and economic morass in Basra with exceptional clarity. As we speak, the governor has been unseated but won't step down, Shiite militias are at each others' throats, and tribal militias function as mafia-- with all the armed groups vying for rights to gasoline smuggling.

UPI is also doing an Iraqi press roundup. Some in Iraq are talking about the need for a dictator again. (Hint: You can't have a dictator without a strong army.)

McClatchy rounds up major violence in Iraq on Thursday, noting that 19 bodies were found in the streets of Baghdad. Also:


' Baghdad
- Around 11 a.m., a roadside bomb exploded at the outside fence of Baghdad Zoo in Mansour neighborhood injuring three people .

- Around 3.40 p.m., a roadside bomb targeted an American convoy at Zayuna neighborhood ( east Baghdad) injuring 5 people .

- 1 Ministry of Interior commando killed and 1 injured in IED explosion that targeted their patrol in Dora, south Baghdad at 04:00 this afternoon.

- 2 civilians injured in IED explosion in Salhiyah, central Baghdad, at 04:00 pm.'


Reuters has more:

'* BAGHDAD - Two U.S. soldiers were killed and six wounded in combat north of Baghdad on Wednesday, the U.S. military said. . .

BAGHDAD - Nine people were killed and 17 wounded by a car bomb near al-Russafi Square in central Baghdad, police said. At least 15 cars were set ablaze. . .

DIWANIYA - Gunmen killed Sheikh Nadhim al-Bdairi, a Fadhila Party official in Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, in a drive-by shooting on Wednesday, police said.

* KIRKUK - Four policemen were wounded by a roadside bomb in southern Kirkuk, police said. Another two policemen were wounded by a second roadside bomb in central Kirkuk. . .

KIRKUK - Two people were killed and 33 wounded by two car bombs in a crowded market in a Kurdish area of the northern city of Kirkuk on Wednesday, police Brigadier-General Sarhet Qadir said. Police had originally put the death toll at five.

'

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Pan Arab Talk Shows on Iraq: OSC

Here are the Iraq-related conversations in the USG Open Source Center roundup of Pan-Arab satellite talk shows for the past week. For the non-Iraq portions, see our Global Affairs group blog.

Weekly Roundup of Pan-Arab TVs Talk Shows 5-11 Aug Corrected version; replacing text; changing Subject Qatar -- OSC Summary Thursday, August 16, 2007

At 1430 GMT on 5 August Al-Jazirah carries a new episode of its weekly talk show "The Iraqi Scene" moderated by Abd-al-Azim Muhammad.

Today's episode hosts Dr Rafi al-Isawi, resigned minister of state for foreign affairs and a leadership figure in the Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front. Al-Isawi starts by saying that the front chose to withdraw from the government when it felt that the key national goals outlined in the government's policy statement were being ignored, and says that the 11 issues it demanded be addressed by the government are not conditions for its return, but are national demands, and explains that the one-week ultimatum to the government seeks to test its willingness to cooperate. He denies accusations to his front of blackmailing the government, and accuses the government spokesmen of twisting the front's words. Al-Isawi adds that the front is still active in parliament, and maintains that the dispute is not with the prime minister, noting the front is not concerned with the government's threats to appoint ministers in place of the resigned ones, but is concerned with the policy statement's implementation

At 1907 GMT on 6 August Al-Jazirah carries a new episode of its weekly program "From Washington" presented Abd-al-Rahim Fuqara. The program hosts Richard Armitage, former US deputy secretary of state.

Asked about his remarks in which he expressed desire to return to power in the future, Armitage says: "I have never accepted or declined a job which has been offered, but I would like to come back under a moderate republican administration. I believe that serving the government is very honorable. I spent more that 20 years in the government and would like to continue to do that. "

Asked whether he believes that the current administration is moderate enough, Armitage says: "I do not think that anybody would accuse this administration of being moderate. But I believe that most people in my country are moderate and desire to return to what might be called the middle of the road." Asked about his major criticism of the current administration, Armitage says that while he was working for the US Administration he felt that there was no accountability, and that people followed the president's instructions whether they wanted that or not.

Armitage goes on to say that vision is important, but implementation and follow-up are also important

Asked about the major failure of the current administration in his opinion, Armitage says that "it is quite clear that there are two related issues. One is related to the war in Afghanistan and the other is related to the war in Iraq. He adds: "We went to Iraq without enough forces."

Asked about whom he blames for the "failure" in Iraq, Armitage says: "I think that we all have to be responsible. I, in the Department of State, and officials in the intelligence were wrong concerning the weapons of mass destruction. Much of the blame falls on everybody when it comes to accountability. I do not think that anybody of us should avoid being held accountable."

Asked whether he believed that the "invasion" of Iraq was right, Armitage says: "Yes. I supported the invasion of Iraq, but I questioned the timing. I wanted to go after the 2004 elections, but Powell had reservations regarding the number of the forces. We went to Iraq with a very small number of forces." . . .


At 1630 GMT on 10 August Al-Arabiyah carries a new episode of its weekly program "From Iraq" presented by Suhayr al-Qaysi.

The program hosts from London Dr Khalid al-Atiyah, deputy speaker of the Iraqi Parliament and member of the Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC); and from Baghdad Dr Salim Abdallah al-Juburi, member of the Iraqi Parliament and spokesman for Al-Tawafuq (Accord) Front, to comment on the Al-Tawafuq Front's withdrawal from the government. Asked whether Al-Maliki's government has collapsed and whether things have reached the point of no return regarding national reconciliation, Al-Atiyah says: "Definitely, the answer is no, because this government represents the various political blocs and the various components of the Iraqi people." He adds that this government is a national unity government. He goes on to say that some political parties and blocs have announced their demands and tried to embarrass the government at this timing through putting it under pressure.

Al-Atiyah adds that the government announced that it is willing to hold dialogue, that the doors to "calm talks" are open, and that demands can be considered. He adds that the only option for the Iraqi people, the Iraqi Government, and the parliament is to continue the political process and calm discussions.

For his part, Al-Juburi says that many people want to simplify the problem to give hope that there is a solution to the problem. He adds: "To be realistic, there is a real crisis that the government might be the main reason behind" because it acted unilaterally and resorted to oppression.

Commenting on accusations that Al-Tawafuq Front is trying to abort Al-Maliki's government, Al-Juburi says that Al-Tawafuq Front does not want to abort the government, saying that it could have refused to participate in the government in the first place. He adds that "the atmosphere is not suitable for a political partnership."



Al-Arabiyah at 2010 GMT on 10 August carries a new episode of its weekly program "Frankly Speaking" presented by Elie Nakuzi. The program hosts, Kurdistan Region President Mas'ud Barzani.

Asked how he evaluates his experience and whether the Kurdish people attained what they want, Barzani says that Kurds so far have not obtained their full rights. He goes on to say that the Kurdish issue witnessed progress over the past years, adding that the Kurdish state should be established one day through dialogue and understanding, and not through violence. Barzani goes on to say that the Kurdish people have never wanted to pick a quarrel with anybody, but they will defend themselves if they come under attack.

Asked about claims that Arab Iraqis are treated as guests when they come to the Kurdistan region, Barzani says that the Kurdistan region has always been a refuge for everybody. He goes on to say that due to the spread of extremism everywhere, and especially in Iraq, the security authorities sometimes have to verify the identities of those who enter Kurdistan.

Asked about Iranian involvement in Iraq, Barzani says that the Kurds have no evidence of any Iranian involvement in Kurdistan.

Asked whether Shiites in Iraq are more loyal to Iran than to Iraq, Barzani says that this is not true. Asked about federalism and how it is going to affect Sunnis, Barzani says that any forced union is doomed to fail, adding that Iraqis have to agree on participation, as no group can rule Iraq unilaterally.

Asked about possible regional alliances that have been formed against Kurds, Barzani says that if Kurds are not allowed to live in peace and stability, they will not let others live in peace and stability.

Barzani answers questions on the execution of Saddam Husayn; objections to tribalism in the Kurdistan region; and fears that Kurds in Turkey and Syria might call for having their "Kurdistan regions" in these countries.

. . . Doha Al-Jazirah Satellite Channel Television in Arabic, independent television station financed by the Qatari Government; and Dubai Al-Arabiyah Television in Arabic, independent television station financed by Arab businessmen, were observed between 5 August and 11 August to carry several talk shows that deal with a number of regional issues, including the latest political developments in Iraq, the political scene in Lebanon, the municipal elections in Jordan, and several other issues.

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Thursday, August 16, 2007

Thousands of Sadrists Protest Arrests;
Sinjar Bombings Worst Ever

Patrick Cockburn correctly put the bombings in Sinjar province in the context of the upcoming referendum on whether the oil-rich Kirkuk province will accede to the Kurdistan Regional government. That is, a territorial struggle is going on in the north among ethnic groups that is likely to worsen later this year.

Cockburn also provides this priceless bit of anti-spin:


' The US military has suggested the bombers are operating more ruthlessly in northern Iraq because they can no longer operate in Baghdad because of the success of the American "surge". In reality, the number of car bombings in Baghdad in July was 5 per cent higher than last December and civilian casualties in explosions have increased by about the same percentage. '


At a time when all the US media and government spokesmen are telling us that bombings have been reduced, Cockburn crunched the numbers to show that the number of bombings is actually a bit higher in July than six months earlier, and so is the death toll.

The death toll from the horrific car bombings of two Yazidi villages outside Mosul in northern Iraq may rise to 500, which would make them by far the deadliest terror attacks since the US invaded the country. Bodies are still being pulled out of the rubble, and many seriously wounded in the attacks have now died. Some wounded were arriving in Baghdad hospitals by Thursday morning.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that thousands of Sadrists demonstrated in Iraqi cities on Wednesday to protest a recent wave of arrests of Sadrist leaders. The Sadr Movement is led by young Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. There have been numerous attacks on Najaf police and on persons, such as translators, seen as collaborators with the Multinational Forces. The chief suspects in these attacks have been members of the Mahdi Army paramilitary of the Sadr Movement. These suspicions have produced widespread arrests of Sadr Movement leaders in Najaf and elsewhere, provoking Wednesday's protests. Al-Hayat's informants in Najaf feared that this heavy-handed approach to the problem, with Mahdi Army commanders just being rounded up in some numbers, is likely to provoke rather than alleviate intra-Shiite faction fighting.

This comment on the attacks on the Yazidis, submitted by "Ivorybill," is so well informed that I am moving it up to the main post:

' Re: Sinjar-Kirkuk connection

Patrick Coburn's article is correct in that the bombing in Sinjar and the unrest in Kirkuk are both related to conflict between Kurds and Arabs over resources. There are similarities but also a few differences.

Some of Iraq's best wheat lands lie immediately south of Jebel Sinjar, and this land was the subject of intense competition in the mid 70's. The Yezidis in Sinjar supported Mustafa Barzani's rebellion in 1975. Karim Sinjar (a Muslim) who is now KDP's [the Kurdistan Democratic Party's] head of intelligence, was a guerilla leader in Sinjar at that time. Because of Karim's reputation in Sinjar and close relationship with the Yezidis, much of the KDP's intelligence network in Mosul (and some in Baghdad) are Yezidi.

In 1976, after the collapse of the Kurdish rebellion, the Yezidis of that area were removed to collective towns (mujama'at), and their land was handed over to members of Arab tribes, mostly in Mosul, who were loyal to the government and the Ba'ath Party. The sites of the bombing - Qataniyyah and Jazirah -are mujama'at constructed at that time. The residents became laborers on the lands they had previously owned, and other Yezidis were displaced to Dohuk or other Mosul.

There was a time when the Yezidis tried to protect themselves by sending different members of the Mir (prince) family to work for different political actors, as sort of an insurance policy. Tahsin Beg, head of the Yezidis, became a "musteshar" ["counsellor"] for Saddam until he was shot in the neck in 1997 and fled to seek safety in the KRG. Khairi Beg joined the KDP. Another one joined the PUK and a fourth went to Syria.

After 2003, the KDP took over Sinjar, and the Arabs who had owned the lands for the previous 26 years were displaced, many at gunpoint. Most fled to Mosul, others to Ba'aj - a grim town on the edge of the Syrian desert, which depends upon one water pipeline now controlled by the KDP. I visited Ba'aj in 2003 immediately after the war, and it was the only place in Iraq at that time in which I felt my life was in imminent danger. The relations between the Yezidis and the Arabs in that area (with the exception of Ghazi al-Yawar's Shammar tribe) were exceedingly tense. The CPA's [Coalition Provisional Authority's] Iraqi Property Claims Commission was an utter failure, having adjudicated no land disputes in Sinjar whatsoever. The area was just considered "disputed" and allowed to drift into active warfare between Yezidis and Arabs.

In 2003, it might have been possible to have compensated the displaced Arabs. The Yezidis had the right to revert from sharecroppers and laborers to farmers on their own land... but the Arab immigrants had raised families in the area, and were suddenly without employment or in some cases homes (many of the Arab families farming Sinjar also had homes in Mosul). Still, there was a short window when the displaced Arab farmers could have been placated. That opportunity is gone now.

The Yezidis also captured a video of Izzat ad-Duri meeting with Saddam Hussein in 1998 or so in which he suggested eliminating the Yezidis in Sinjar completely. Saddam allegedly demurred, but Izzat ad-Duri is feared and reviled by the Yezidis. The authors of this bombing may well be linked to the reorganized Ba'ath, under Izzat ad-Duri, even if they managed to find some foreign youths to drive the vehicles and blow themselves up.

This situation in Sinjar is superficially similar to Kirkuk, but the actors involved - the Arab tribes in Mosul and the Yezidis - are actually quite different. The ultimate fate of Sinjar will depend upon whether the KDP can occupy and hold both areas when the US leaves, or whether they will sacrifice Sinjar in order to devote their resources to Kirkuk. My guess is that the Kurds will prioritize Kirkuk, and the Arab tribes will ethnically cleanse Sinjar - with exceptional violence.'


At our Global Affairs group blog, an interview that suggests the Chinese may broker a deal with the Taliban for the release of the remaining South Korean hostages in Afghanistan.

At the Napoleon in Egypt blog, "Bonaparte puts the Sunni Clerics in Charge of Egypt."

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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Cole on Lehrer

Just taped a segment for the Lehrer News Hour on Iraq. Will be aired today, 8/15.

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Bombing of Yazidis;
Summit Fizzles

Local officials in the two villages of of Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah in northern Iraq (not far from Mosul) maintained Wednesday morning that 4 car bombs had killed over 200 persons and wounded a similar number. Police were expecting the death toll to rise, since many bodies are in buildings collapsed by the conflagrations. The US military said there were 5 car bombs, and gave a much lower estimate of 60 killed. On this sort of thing, I'd trust the Iraqi figures; they know when their own friends and relatives are missing.

The operation resembled the horrific bombing of the Shiite Turkmen of Armili on July 2. Note that first Shiite Turkmen were targeted and now Kurdish Yazidis. They have in common not being Sunni Arabs. My suspicion is that these bombings are not just an attempt to spread fear and intimidation, but are actually part of a struggle for control of territory. The Sunni Arab guerrillas face powerful challenges from Kurds and Shiites with regard to the future of provinces such as Ninevah, Diyala and Kirkuk. A lot of Kurdish police and troops have been deployed in Mosul not far from Tuesday's bombings, and they are seen as among the deadliest enemies by the Sunni Arab guerrillas. Sooner or later, my guess is that the Sunni Arabs will wage a major war with the Kurds over the oil fields of Kirkuk.

The situation in Iraq is so horrific that merely bad news is drowned out by the truly awful. Thus, on Tuesday, guerrillas bombed a major bridge connecting Taji and Baghdad with the north, throwing several cars into the river and killing some 10 persons. I.e., this is a Minneapolis-scale event. But it will barely get mentioned given the massive bombings of the Yazidis.

10 US troops have been killed in the past two days, including 5 who died in a helicopter crash Tuesday. Ten. That's worth a headline all by itself.

Likewise this story about "US raid on Shi'ite slum sparks anger on streets". It is suspicious that the US military claims never to kill civilians in Sadr City, while the Shiites are always having funeral processions for children.

The Deputy Oil Minister and several of his aides were kidnapped at gun point by 50 men in the uniform of the Iraqi security forces on Tuesday. This incident speaks volumes about the lack of security in Baghdad still, since the deputy oil minister should have had the resources to protect himself. Iraqi sources are claiming that it was an act of criminality (i.e. they are holding him for ransom), but I am skeptical of that claim. I have no counter-evidence, it just does not sound right to me. It is more likely that this operation was a matter of sectarian rivalry or revenge, possibly between Iraqi government ministries.

The reconciliation summit called by President Jalal Talabani appears to have fizzled. According to al-Zaman, the meeting just turned into luncheon with cold cuts, and no serious work was accomplished. The leaders had decided to keep the Sadrists and the Islamic Virtue (Fadhila) Party away, since they are usually unyielding. Sunni VP Tariq al-Hashimi, declined to attend the break-out session. The Sunni Arab figures attending declined to talk politics.

McClatchy is contradicting Pentagon claims that bombings and civilian casualties are down:


U.S. officials say the number of civilian casualties in the capital is down 50 percent. But U.S. officials declined to provide specific numbers, and statistics gathered by McClatchy Newspapers don't support the claim. The number of car bombings in July actually was 5 percent higher than the number recorded last December, according to the McClatchy statistics, and the number of civilians killed in explosions is about the same."


You will hear the Pentagon claim about less violence (!) repeated ad nauseam on all the cable television news channels and in the major print media. You won't hear anyone say that McClatchy's figures dispute the claim. For more on how the surge is being spun and key indicators of rising violence are being misstated or misinterpreted, see my last Salon column.

An international labor federation has backed Iraq's oil union and condemned Petroleum Minister Hussein Shahristani for attempting to sideline it using Baath-era laws.

Tom Englehardt considers the troop escalation in Iraq and the echoes of Vietnam in contemporary political rhetoric.

At our Global Affairs Group Blog don't miss Barnett Rubin's "WSJ vs. NYT: is the Afghan glass half empty or half full?"

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Sam Seder Interview on Napoleon's Egypt

Sam Seder is calling me Wednesday to talk about my new book, Napoleon's Egypt.

The segment will air Sunday Sept. 26, during Sam's show (see link above).

At the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, Capt. Shechy's eyewitness account of the taking of Alexandria.

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Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Dick Cheney '94: Invading Baghdad Would Create Quagmire



Cheney was head of Halliburton in Dallas from 1995 until July, 2000, when he resigned in preparation for running for vice president. During that time, Halliburton subsidiaries allegedly did business with Iraq. This article gives Cheney's position in 1996:

' Halliburton was headed for a financial crisis in the mid-1990s. Cheney said sanctions against countries like Iraq were hurting corporations such as Halliburton. "We seem to be sanction-happy as a government," Cheney said at an energy conference in April 1996, reported in the oil industry publication Petroleum Finance Week. "The problem is that the good Lord didn't see fit to always put oil and gas resources where there are democratic governments," he observed during his conference presentation . . . . . . Sanctions make U.S. businesses "the bystander who gets hit when a train wreck occurs," Cheney told Petroleum Finance Week. "While virtually every other country sees the need for sanctions against Iraq and Saddam Hussein's regime there, Cheney sees general agreement that the measures have not been very effective despite their having most of the international community's support. An individual country's embargo, such as that of the United States against Iran, has virtually no effect since the target country simply signs a contract with a non-U.S. business," the publication reported.'


In September, 2000, Donald Rumsfeld (defence secretary), Paul Wolfowitz (Rumsfeld's deputy), George W Bush's younger brother Jeb, Lewis Libby (Cheney's chief of staff) and Fred Kagan [recently author of the 'surge' idea] drew up a position paper for Cheney entitled Rebuilding America's Defences. The document said,

' In the Persian Gulf region, the presence of American forces, along with British and French units, has become a semipermanent fact of life. Though the immediate mission of those forces is to enforce the no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq, they represent the long-term commitment of the United States and its major allies to a region of vital importance. Indeed, the United States has for decades sought to play a more permanent role in Gulf regional security. While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein.'


The document found willing ears. Cheney's years in Dallas hanging around with Big Oil CEO's appear to have made him question his earlier conviction that it was best to leave Saddam Hussein in power.

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Massive Attack on Yazidis Kills nearly 200

The BBC says that Ninevah Province police are reporting that three car bombs targeted a Yazidi village in northern Iraq near Sinjar not far from the Syria border. One of them was a fuel truck. The bombings destroyed buildings and 175 are now being reported dead, with 200 wounded. The death toll is expected to rise.

Yazidis were targeted by Sunni gunmen last April, in part because of a clan feud sparked by a Juliet and Romeo star-crossed romance between a Yazidi young woman and a Sunni man.

This massive bombing is likely to be the work of the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement, which has been blocked from carrying out such destabilizing operations in Baghdad itself by Gen. Petraeus's efforts. The point is to spread generalized fear. It may be that Salafi Jihadis are also especially targeting non-Sunni populations in the north, since that has the double value to them of also punishing lack of orthodoxy.

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Four US Troops Killed
PKK Threatens Iraq, Turkey

Four more US troops have been announced killed in Iraq.

In the wake of PM Nuri al-Maliki's talks with Turkey and his commitment to expel the Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK) from Iraq, the PKK has threatened both Turkey and Iraq with terroist acts if they follow through on any crackdown:


' The Iraqi government should not interfere in the conflict between us and Turkey, spokesman Abdelrahman Chadarchi told AFP by telephone from the Qandil mountains on the Iraq-Iran border. If they plan to strike at the PKK politically or militarily, Iraq and Turkey will pay the price and the crises in Iraq and Turkey will deepen, he added without elaborating.'


Amid mortar attacks and assassinations, Baghdad police found 17 bodies in the streets of the capital on Monday.

Persistent power shortages are making life miserable in the Baghdad heat.

Mitt Romney's gaffe on his sons' (lack of) service in Iraq is not getting any media attention beause of an MSM double standard whereby if a Democrat puts his foot in his mouth, it is the end of the world, but Republicans can say the craziest things and they don't get media coverage.

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Karl Rove Resignation: Satire

Satire on Karl Rove's resignation: Rewriting a Wikipedia article on Goebbels through search and replace. (Link in time stamp, below.)

Karl Rove, leader of the Republican Party's propaganda machine, later the official in charge of all Republican Party Propaganda and Bush's adviser.

Homeland official for Popular Enlightenment and Propaganda

Preceded by None

Political party Republican


Karl Rove was an American politician and adviser for Public Enlightenment and Propaganda during the Bushevik regime. He was one of George W. Bush's closest associates and most devout followers. Rove was known for his zealous, energetic oratory.

Rove came into contact with the Republican Party. In this position, he put his propaganda skills to full use, combating the local Democratic parties with the help of newspapers and Republican Party activists. By 2007 he had risen in the party ranks to become one of its most prominent members.

After the Republicans seized power in 2000, he was appointed propaganda official. One of his first acts was to order attacks on books by anti-Republican authors and he proceeded to gain full control of every outlet of information in the United States.

An early and avid supporter of war, Rove did everything in his power to prepare the American people for a large scale military conflict. During the Iraq War, he increased his power and influence through shifting alliances with other Republican leaders. By late 2006, the war had turned into a disaster for the Coalition powers, but this only spurred Rove to intensify the propaganda by urging the Americans to accept the idea of total war and mobilization, which he called "the surge." Rove remained with Bush almost to the very end.

His height exposed him to ridicule and humiliation in a society that worshipped physical prowess. A chickenhawk, he later frequently misrepresented himself as qualified to make pronouncements on war.

Rove compensated for his physical frailty with intellectual accomplishments.

The culture of the American extreme right was violent and anti-intellectual, which posed a challenge to the physically frail, would-be intellectual Rove. One author writes:


This was the source of his hatred of the intellect, which was a form of self-hatred, his longing to degrade himself, to submerge himself in the ranks of the masses, which ran curiously parallel with his ambition and his tormenting need to distinguish himself. He was incessantly tortured by the fear of being regarded as a ‘middle class intellectual’… It always seemed as if he were offering blind devotion [to Republicansm] to make up for his lack of all those characteristics of the elite which nature had denied him.

[edit] Republican activist

Like others who were later prominent in the Bushevik Regime, Rove came into contact with the Republican Party.

“National and capitalist! What goes first, and what comes afterwards?” Rove asked rhetorically in a debate . “With us in the west, there can be no doubt. First capitalist redemption, then comes national liberation like a whirlwind… Bush stands between both opinions, but he is on his way to coming over to us completely.” The conflict was not, so they thought, with Bush, but with his lieutenants, In 2006, Rove published an open letter to “my anti-immigration friends,” urging unity between anti-immigrationists and Republicans. “You and I,” he wrote, “we are fighting one another although we are not really enemies.”[15]

Rove was bitterly disillusioned in 2002. “I feel devastated,” he wrote. “What sort of Bush?” He was horrified by Bush’s desire for a middle class tax cut instead of a second round of cuts for the super-rich. “I no longer fully believe in Bush. That’s the terrible thing: my inner support has been taken away.”

Bush, however, recognised Rove’s talents, and he was a shrewd judge of character—he knew that Rove craved recognition above all else. In January, he brought Rove to Washington, sending his own car to meet him at the station, and gave him a long private audience. Bush berated Rove over his support for the “pro-immigration” line, but offered to “wipe the slate clean” if Rove would now accept his leadership. Rove capitulated completely, offering Bush his total loyalty—a pledge which was clearly sincere, and which he adhered to until the end of his life. “I love him… He has thought through everything,” Rove wrote. “Such a sparkling mind can be my leader. I bow to the greater one, the political genius. Later he wrote: “George W. Bush, I love you because you are both great and simple at the same time. What one calls a genius.” A historian writes:

From this point on he submitted himself, his whole existence, to his attachment to the person of the Commander in Chief, consciously eliminating all inhibitions springing from intellect, free will and self-respect. Since this submission was an act less of faith than of insight, it stood firm through all vicissitudes to the end. ‘He who forsakes the commander in chief withers away,’ he would later write.

[edit] Propaganda writer
Rove in a propaganda shot

Bush rewarded Rove for his loyalty by making him the White House adviser for the Washington section of the Busheviks. Rove was then able to use the new position to indulge his literary aspirations in the American capital, which he perceived to be a stronghold of the Democrats. Here, Rove discovered his genius as a propagandist, writing such tracts as 2002's The Second Revolution and Lenin or Bush.

Here, he was also able to indulge his heretofore latent taste for violence, if only vicariously through the actions of the police under his command. History, he said, “is made in the street,” and he was determined to challenge the dominant parties of the left—the Democrats and Greens—in the streets of America through no-protest zones. .Working with the local police, he deliberately provoked beer-hall battles and street brawls, frequently involving firearms. “Beware, you dogs,” he wrote to his former “friends of the left”: “When the Devil is loose in me you will not curb him again.” When the inevitable demonstrations occurred, he exploited them for the maximum effect.

In Washington, Rove was able to give full expression to his genius for propaganda, as editor of the Washington Republican newspaper (The Attack) and as the author of a steady stream of Republican posters and talking points. “He rose within a few months to be the city’s most feared agitator.” His propaganda techniques were totally cynical: “That propaganda is good which leads to success, and that is bad which fails to achieve the desired result,” he wrote. “It is not propaganda’s task to be intelligent, its task is to lead to success.”

Among his favourite targets were Democratic leaders such as John Kerry, whom he subjected to a relentless campaign of Swiftboating in the hope of provoking a crackdown which he could then exploit. When a friend criticised him for denigrating Kerry, a man with an exemplary military record, “he explained cynically that he wasn’t in the least interested in Kerry, only in the propaganda effect.”

Rove also discovered a talent for oratory, and was soon second in the Republican movement only to Bush as a public speaker. Where Bush’s style was hoarse and passionate, Rove’s was cool, sarcastic and often humorous: he was a master of biting invective and insinuation, although he could whip himself into a rhetorical frenzy if the occasion demanded. Unlike Bush, however, he retained a cynical detachment from his own rhetoric. He openly acknowledged that he was exploiting the lowest instincts of the American people—racism, xenophobia, class envy and insecurity. He could, he said, play the popular will like a piano, leading the masses wherever he wanted them to go. “He drove his listeners into ecstasy, making them stand up, sing songs, raise their arms, repeat oaths—and he did it, not through the passionate inspiration of the moment, but as the result of sober psychological calculation.”

Despite his revolutionary rhetoric, Rove’s most important contribution to the Republican Party was as the organiser of successive election campaigns. He proved to be an organiser of genius, choreographing Bush’s dramatic airplane tours of the United States and pioneering the use of radio, cinema and Fox Cable News for electoral campaigning. The Republican Party’s use of torchlight parades, brass bands, massed choirs and similar techniques caught the imagination of many voters, particularly young people. “His propaganda headquarters in Washington sent out a constant stream of directives to local and regional party sections, often providing fresh slogans and fresh material for the campaign.” Although the spectacular rise in the Republican vote in 2002 and 2004 was caused mainly by the effects of September 11, Rove as party campaign manager was naturally given much of the credit . . .
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Monday, August 13, 2007

Sunni Arab Guerillas Kill 5 US Troops, Use EFP
Fears of Shiite on Shiite Warfare
Dulaimi denounces Genocide against Sunni Arabs

Sunni Arab guerrillas deployed an explosively formed projectile (a kind of roadside bomb) against 4 soldiers who had come in a humvee to investigate the sniping death of a fifth soldier. All four were killed. Unfortunately the LA Times calls the guerrillas "al-Qaeda-allied." This terminology is from the Bush administration lexicon. I very much doubt that the LA Times knows whether the group that set the bomb is allied with al-Qaeda or not. Indeed, for all we know, this cell belonged to the Baath Party.

Note too that the Sunni Arab neighborhoods have the explosively formed projectiles, just as do the Shiite neighborhoods. Iran is not giving them to Sunnis, and certainly not to 'al-Qaeda-allied' Sunnis. Ipso facto, Iran cannot be the only source of EFPs, and it is not established except by allegation and innuendo that they are a source at all. (If the Sunni Arab guerrillas can make EFPs, so could Iraqi Shiites).

It is always surprising what you can conclusively deduce just from reading the newspapers without the spin that the administration and the Pentagon manages to implant in the stories.

17 corpses were found in the streets of Baghdad, more than double the number during a recent Shiite festival and consequent curfew. It suggests that Shiite death squads took off a few days for the festival, but are now back to work. It is a hell of a shift.

A group of corrupt businessmen with ties to the Italian Cosa Nostra was discovered to have arranged for the shipping of 100,000 sophisticated guns to the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior, allegedly to be supplied to the police in al-Anbar Province. The MoI was supposed to inform the US military about any such purchases, in accordance with America's colonial role in Iraq. It did not. The deal was worth $40 millon. Since the US has heavily armed the al-Anbar police, it is not plausible that they would need massive numbers of machine guns. The special police commandos of the Ministry of the Interior were largely recruited from the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. It is likely that the weapons were for them and their friends on the outside in Badr. Since a intra-Shiite civil war is building between Badr and its rival, the Mahdi Army, and since Badr corps are targeted by Sunni Arab guerrillas as "Iranian" agents, Interior may have felt it needed to give its special commandos and the Badr an advantage in fire power. Since the Iraqi government was essentially bolstering a militia, and the US wants to repress the militias, it could not let the Americans know about the deal. Italian investigators accidentally turned it up while trying to catch Mafia drug smugglers. They forestalled the deal from going through. This time.

The mother of all parliaments thinks the surge is likely to fail.

The assassination of the governor and police chief threaten to throw Diwaniya into a Shiite civil war between the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and its Badr Corps paramilitary [aka the Diwaniya police) on the one hand, and the Mahdi Army on the other. Reuters says there are fears that if such a struggle broke out, it would not remain confined to Diwaniya.

Adnan Dulaimi, a leader of the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front (44 seats in parliament), went on a Dennis Miller style rant on Sunday, accusing the Shiite government and its Iranian allies of implementing a genocide [actually I'm told the word he used means something more akin to 'expulsions' or 'ethnic cleansing'] against Iraqi Sunni Arabs. He complained bitterly that none of the Sunni Arab states seemed to care what happened to Iraqi Sunnis. He accused the Iraqi Shiites of being Safavids, that is, of being loyal to Iran in such a way as to sacrifice Iraqi sovereignty for the sake of a dual loyalty to Tehran. Dulaimi is a little unbalanced, in my view, and has said extreme things before. The anecdotal evidence in the Arab press, however, suggests that lots of Sunnis in al-Anbar and elsewhere think exactly as Dulaimi does.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog: The Battle of the Nile.

And at the Global Affairs group blog, don't miss Barnett Rubin on Afghanistan.

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Sunday, August 12, 2007

Bush's Failures in Afghanistan

At our Global Affairs group blog, Barnett Rubin comments on an important new NYT article on how Afghanistan is going bad under W.'s tender ministrations. Rubin is perhaps our foremost Afghanistan expert and his trenchant and informed commentary is a must see.

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Guerrillas kill Governor of Qadisiya

Militiamen deployed a powerful roadside bomb to kill the governor and police chief of Qadisiya Province, the capital of which is Diwaniya. Gov. Khalil Jalil Hamza, of the Badr Organization and police chief Maj-Gen Khaled Hassan were returning to Diwaniyah from a funeral. This kind of incident is one reason for which I am very suspicious the Pentagon story that Iran is providing roadside bombs to militias in Iraq. Look, the Badr Corps, the paramilitary of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, was formed in Tehran in the 1980s, trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and may still be in some part on the Iranian payroll. So Iran is sitting pretty, with a Badr commander as governor of Qadisiya province. And having gotten their guy into power, they would kill him in cooperation with scruffy anti-Persian Mahdi Army goons--- why? That roadside bomb did not come from Iran; if Iran was going to give such bombs to anyone, it would be the Badr Corps itself, not the enemies of Badr.

Salafi Jihadi radicals took out two Sunni figures Saturday. : "In one, militants bombed the northern Baghdad home of a moderate and highly regarded Sunni cleric, Sheik Wathiq al-Obeidi, who had recently spoken against al-Qaeda. He was seriously wounded and three relatives were killed." In the other, "a local tribal leader in Albu Khalifa, a village west of Baghdad, was gunned down by militants who broke into his home late Saturday, police said. Sheik Fawaq Sadda' al-Khalifawi had recently joined the anti-al-Qaeda alliance in Anbar, . . ."

The Washington Post says, "The U.S. military has paid $548 million over the past three years to two British security firms that protect the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on reconstruction projects, more than $200 million over the original budget, according to previously undisclosed data that show how the cost of private security in Iraq has mushroomed. The two companies, Aegis Defence Services and Erinys Iraq, signed their original Defense Department contracts in May 2004. By July of this year, the contracts supported a private force that had grown to about 2,000 employees serving the Corps of Engineers." I see. So our soldiers are being guarded by paid civilian security men and we are having to pony up extra payments to them because of their cost over-runs.

The Guardian writes, "Exhaustion and combat stress are besieging US troops in Iraq as they battle with a new type of warfare. Some even rely on Red Bull to get through the day. ..."

British officials and officers reacted with cold fury to the allegations of Anthony Cordesmann that the British failed in their mission in the south and are now intending to turn Basra over to local Mafias.

Reuters reports political violence for Saturday.

Will blog more later on Sunday.

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Saturday, August 11, 2007

Getting Pakistan Right

Be sure to check out Manan Ahmed's "Getting Pakistan Right at our Global Affairs group blog. It is a powerful corrective to American tendencies to undervalue the democratic potential of the place.

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Kirkuk Car Bomb Kills 11
UN to Up Involvement in Iraq
Wave of Killings, Death Threats in Najaf


The United Nations Security Council voted to get more involve in Iraq on Friday
. The increase of staffers involved, however, is minuscule, and the vote is more important for its symbolism than for its likely effective impact. The staffers will have a special charge to help in promoting national reconciliation among Sunnis and Shiites. Some observers are cynically commenting that the Bush administration is trying to push the Iraq problem off onto the UN now that it has become so dire, though when he thought the Iraq Occupation would be a success, Bush tried desperatedly to sideline the UN.

Al-Hayat writing in Arabic reports that the top religious leaders in the Shiite holy city of Najaf have given their seminary students permission to leave the country in the wake of a wave of assassinations and death threats that have provoked consternation among security and religious officials alike. There appears to be a secret organization behind the killings and threats, which possesses a high degree of competence, that is stalking persons with a close connection to the top religious leaders, especially associates of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

Hazim al-A`raji, an aide to Muqtada al-Sadr, said that police officers who had interrogated members of the millenarian Soldiers of Heaven cult had been targeted for assassination. But, he said, the situation was so murky that it was impossible to assign exact blame. The son of Grand Ayatollah Bashir Najafi (from Karachi, Pakistan) said that dozens of seminarians and aides had been sent to Syria or Lebanon after receiving death threats, and that the indiscriminate character of the threats had made it difficult to identify the perpetrator.

A Sadr spokesman in Najaf denied a US military allegation that Muqtada al-Sadr had departed to Iran and was not in control of the Mahdi Army. The spokesman said that Muqtada is present in Najaf. He was last seen in public on 25 May.

In al-Qurnah, north of Basra, the son of the sheikh of the Banu Malik tribe, Wissam al-Maliki, was cut down by assassins. This is the tribe from which PM Nuri al-Maliki derives.

Guerrillas deployed a car bomb in the northern oil city of Kirkuk on Friday, killing at least 11 persons and wounding 45.

Swopa on al-Maliki and Ahmadinejad: Your tax dollars at work.

On the new documentary, "No end in Sight."

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Baath Party: Threats over Oil Law; Seeks Info on Shiite Crimes



The USG Open Source Center translates two communiques from the Iraqi Baath Party. As long-time readers know, I believe the Baath Party cells are a significant component of what the US calls the 'insurgency,' but that they allow Salafi Jihadis to take the 'credit' for some of their terror operations. The first memo calls on Iraqis to provide information on the crimes of 'Iranian agents' during the spring, 1991 uprising against the Baghdad government. The subtext is that this uprising was planned and led by the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, then based in Tehran. The head of the dominant Shiite bloc in the current parliament is Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council. The Baath Party wants the information collected to help in the defense of Baath officials accused of putting down the rebellion with great brutality (some 60,000 rebels are estimated to have been killed.) The second threatens violent reprisals against parliamentarians who approve the draft petroleum bill being pushed for by the Bush administration.


Ba'th Party Urges Iraqis To Provide Information on Iranian Agents' 1991 'Crimes'
Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
Friday, August 10, 2007

Terrorism: Call to Ba'thists, Security Men, Members of Armed Forces, All Honorable Iraqis On 11 July, a jihadist website posted a statement by the Ba'th Party in Iraq calling, once more, on all "honorable" Iraqis who may have information about crimes against Iraqis committed by "Iranian agents" during 1991 and the role of Iran in such crimes to come forth and present it at the forthcoming trial. The statement was attributed to Al-Basrah Net.

A summary of the statement follows:

"Previously, we have issued a call for all Ba'thists, security agents, members of the jihadist armed forces, and all 'honorable' Iraqis to come forth and present information they may have about the 'crimes committed by Iranian agents' in 1991, as well as about the 'role' of Iran in such crimes. This information is needed in order to 'bring it to the attention of world and Arab public opinion,' and in order to make use of it to 'contest' the charges against the comrades in the forthcoming trials against them. Due to the fact that the trials will open soon, 'we hope that all the comrades' will speed up the dispatch of any information they have, especially those who lived in the Provinces of Basra and Maysan at the time."

----------

Ba'th Party Issues Statement Warning of Reprisals Over Iraq Oil Law Approval
Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
Friday, August 10, 2007

Terrorism: Ba'th Party Statement Promising Nationalization of Iraqi Oil On 11 July, a jihadist website posted a statement by the Ba'th Party in Iraq entitled: "The oil belongs to the people of Iraq; we will chop off the hand that hands it over to America." The statement condemns the operative "oil law" and the Norwegian Government for concluding oil treaties with the "agent gangs" in northern Iraq.

A summary of the statement follows:

In the statement, the Ba'th Party wants to reemphasize what it has issued about the oil of Iraq previously, especially in light of the recent events about the all-important issue of oil.

First, control of the oil of Iraq was "one of the most important objectives" behind the US occupation of Iraq, not only to steal more other nations natural resources, but also in order that the United States uses oil as a means to "intimidate" the whole world, particularly the major powers, and "establish the global American dictatorship."

Second, the "securing" of Iraqi oil and maintaining it under the control of the Iraqi people is one of the most important goals of the Ba'th Party and the armed Iraqi resistance.

Third, "our party warns" that anyone who attempts to hand the oil industry to the United States under the prevailing "oil law," especially members of the so-called Council of Representatives, will be charged with "great national treason." This includes those who may vote against the law, because their presence in that body alone will make them party to surrendering the oil to the occupiers.

Fourth, the Ba'th Party and the Iraqi armed resistance also warn Western companies, especially Norwegian ones, against "concluding deals" with the agent gangs that collaborate with the occupiers in northern Iraq, since northern Iraq is an indivisible part of Iraq.

Fifth, the so-called oil law, is an "obvious new indicator" that the occupation has failed finally, and that, before its withdrawal and through political pressure, the occupier is "looking for a major prize" to substitute for what it cannot achieve through military means. The party wants to assure all Arabs and Iraqis that keeping Iraqi oil under the sovereign control of the people of Iraq will be the best indicator of the independence of Iraq. When the "military liberation" of Iraq is accomplished, it only will be complete when the oil is liberated and returned to the people of Iraq.

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Friday, August 10, 2007

Cheney Urges Strike on Iran: McClatchy
Bush threatens al-Maliki then Backs Off
Bombing in Taji Kills 7



Warren P. Strobel, John Walcott and Nancy A. Youssef of McClatchy report that VP Dick Cheney has been urging a military strike on Iran, but that Bush has decided for the moment to hit Shiite allies of Iran inside Iraq. (Since the majority of Iraqi Shiites are allies of Iran, he will have a lot of targets). (See also Blue Girl on this issue.

Even the famously tongue-tied George W. Bush has never outdone himself in producing diplomatic confusion the way he did on Thursday-- as Farideh Farhi points out at our group blog. First, he faced the difficulty that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki affirmed that Iran is playing a helpful role in Iraq. This statement came on the heels of a similar assertion by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, which Bush contradicted. So he contradicted al-Maliki, as well. Somehow, unlike Fox Cable News, US allies in the Middle East don't seem to be able just to parrot White House talking points. But Bush in correcting al-Maliki got off on a flight of rhetoric and seemed to be addressing him personally with a threat. Later on he had to clarify that the threat was directed against Iran, not al-Maliki. Al-Maliki is a longtime activist of the [Shi`ite] Islamic Call Party (Da`wa), which sought refuge in Iran during the 1980s and 1990s from Saddam Hussein's persecution. Da`wa has every reason to be deeply indebted to Iran and can't be expected to badmouth the ayatollahs. Bush seems to be continually surprised to find that he has put Iran's allies in power in Kabul and Baghdad. Attempting to explain why al-Maliki was so warmly greeting the Iranian officials he was meeting Bush said, '"You don't want the picture to be kind of, you know, duking it out," Bush said, holding up his fists like a boxer as he called Iran "a very troubling nation" that must be isolated.' Iran's press stressed that Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei pledged full Iranian support for the elected government of Iraq, urged unity among all Iraq's religious and sectarian groups, and said that peace would only return when US troops departed the country.

The Iraqi oil minister, Husayn Shahristani, said Thursday that all international oil companies would have to compete with bids for the development of Iraqi petroleum. He implied that US firms would have no special access, and went out of his way to say that the Russian firm Lukoil would have some advantages insofar as it had a history of working in Iraq. The Shiite deep south is not as insecure as the west, center and north of the country, such that work might actually start down there in the foreseeable future. Given the overwhelming position the US military and diplomatic corps has in Iraq, it would not be surprising if the Iraqis attempted to diversify their foreign patrons by turning to multinationals based in other countries.

Meanwhile, Chevron and Total (French) have already signed a deal to develop the Majnun oil fields near Basra.

Iraqi refugees in Amman have often gone from riches to rags. This wretched diaspora of nearly 1 million persons has the potential to roil Jordanian society (Jordan's citizen population is only 5.2 million). It also stands as a reproach to US policies in Iraq, which have helped produce so much misery. As the intrepid Patrick Cockburn observes, the acceleration of the exodus from Iraq is one of the indications that the surge has not succeeded in the way the Pentagon spokesmen proclaim.

A vehicle ban in Falluja has reduced attacks in the city from 200 a month to 30. The downside? Walking everywhere you need to go in a city of 300,000.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday. Note that the Shiite militiamen are busy with the pilgrimage to the shrine of Imam Musa al-Kazim in north Baghdad, and so only dispatched 9 persons Wednesday night. Major incidents:

' NEAR TAJI - A suicide car bomb killed seven people and wounded eight near a market in Salih al-Khalaf village, north of Baghdad on Tuesday, the U.S. military said. Another military statement said eight people were killed and 16 wounded. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed three people and wounded two in the southern Baghdad district of Bayaa, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Gunmen shot and wounded three Iraqi soldiers in western Baghdad's Yarmouk district, police said. . .

NEAR RUMAILA OILFIELDS - A roadside bomb killed two British soldiers and seriously wounded two others on Wednesday when it detonated near a military convoy driving north of southern Iraq's Rumaila oilfields, the British military said. '


At the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, the Battle of Shubrakhit.

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Thursday, August 09, 2007

Rumors Musharraf will impose Emergency Laws in Pakistan
Islamabad blames Obama



Blogger acting up, affecting comments, archives. Should clear up soon. Sorry.

Rumors are flying in Pakistan that Gen. Pervez Musharraf may declare what amounts to martial law, responding to 'external' and 'internal' threats.

[Musharraf announced Thursday that he was not in fact going to declare an emergency. Some have speculated that he was posturing to get the Bush administration to back off pressuring him to crack down on fundamentalist Muslims in Pakistan.]

The Pakistani government is implying that the comments of US presidential candidate Barack Obama about bombing northern Pakistan to get at al-Qaeda are part of the impetus for the move, but that is self-serving.

Still, it won't do Senator Obama's campaign any good for him to be invoked as part of the reason for Pakistan moving away from democracy toward emergency rule. He should not have stuck to his guns on Sunday and subsequently; being able to fix a mistake gracefully is key to success in politics.

See also Manan Ahmed's comments at our Global Affairs group blog.

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US Military Strikes Embarrass al-Maliki While he is in Tehran



The US military took advantage of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's absence from the country to settle some scores with the Mahdi Army in Sadr City (East Baghad), attacking units there and mounting air strikes on them, killing 32 and wounding about a dozen. Local observers claimed that the attacks killed 9 innocent civilians, but the US military said the casualties were militiamen. When al-Maliki is in Baghdad, he tends to run interference for the Sadr Movement, which elected him to office, and to attempt to convince the US military to put off attacking these Shiite forces until after the Sunni Arab guerrillas are dealt with decisively.

Iraqslogger shows the reaction in Sadr City. It isn't pretty.

Not only did the US military attack these Shiite forces unilaterally, but its spokesmen attempted to link the Mahdi Army cell attacked to the importation of explosively formed projectiles from Iran.

It cannot be an accident that both the attack and the attempt to implicate Iran (with no evidence for the allegations against Tehran provided) came while al-Maliki was in Tehran for high level consultations with the Iranian government.

In other words, the US military is playing a dangerous political game of attempting to undermine al-Maliki's diplomacy with Iran and to alienate the Sadr Movement from him altogether (it has already suspended membership in his government). For more on the timing of (surely overstated) US military announcements implicating Iran so as to undermine talks with Tehran by US and Iraqi diplomats, see Bill Beeman's comments below. This is not the proper role for generals, and it is shocking that Amassador Ryan Crocker and Secretary of State Condi Rice allow it to go on.

In Tehran, al-Maliki was attempting to get Iranian security cooperation and also a pledge of help with providing fuel and electricity to East Baghdad. Al-Maliki is caught between his two patrons, Iran and the US, and needs the support of both to survive politically.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Iranians hit back at US charges at the security meeting in Damascus, saying that the US and Iraq were not in a position to lecture others on terrorism as long as they gave refuge in Iraq to the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO or MEK), which is responsible for numerous bombings and other terrorism in Iran. The US State Department acknowledges that the MEK is a terrorist organization, but the Pentagon is using it against Iran anyway. Turkey likewise chimed in on US/Iraqi hypocrisy, complaining that terrorists of the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) are being coddled inside the Iraqi border.

Meanwhile, Iraq's Shiites, during pilgrimage season to the shrine of Imam Musa al-Kazim (7th in the line after the Prophet Muhammad), have no doubt which external power is to blame for the bombings in Baghdad, and it is not Iran-- it is Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, angry at al-Maliki, Syria and Iran, declined to attend the Damascus security meeting, which I think is a very bad sign. The only way we avoid a proxy war in Iraq between the Saudis and the Iranians is if both sides can do the hard diplomacy to avoid it.

As if the politics and violence were not enough, Iraq is menaced by the imminent collapse of a dam north of Mosul.

The Group News Blog suggests that the British military may well withdraw from Iraq by October.

At the Bonaparte in Egypt blog, the French army marches on Damanhour from Alexandria.
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Beeman to NYT: Hyping Iran Threat in Times of Diplomacy



William O. Beeman of the University of Minnesota shared with IC this letter to the editor of the New York Times:

"From: William O. Beeman
Sent: Wed 8/8/2007 3:22 PM
To: letters@nytimes.com
Subject: U.S. Says Bomb Suppled by Iran Kills Troops in Iraq

To the Editor:

Re: "U.S. Says Bomb Suppled by Iran Kills Troops in Iraq" by Michael R. Gordon, August 8, 2007

It is increasingly suspicious that every time the United States has begun a diplomatic initiative with Iran--the latest on August 6, some United States military official in Iraq comes forward to accuse Iran of supplying weapons to attack U.S. troops. Perhaps it is coincidence, but the reporter rendering these accusations for the public seems always to be Michael R. Gordon. These military reports and the Times reportage seem timed to undermine these diplomatic talks. Following the historic May 28 talks between Iran and the United States in Baghdad, the Iranian government called for a second round of talks. As negotiations for this second round were underway General Kevin Bergner provided a briefing on precisely the issue of the IED's covered in the August 8 article by Mr. Gordon. Mr. Gordon's last reportage of General Kevin J. Bergner's account of these Iranian attacks ("U.S. Ties Iran to Deadly Iraq Attack" July 2, 2007) was a textbook case in hype. Mr. Gordon significantly enhanced General Bergner's already specious and exaggerated statements to make the Iranian government appear even more culpable than the evidence in the press conference would warrant. Although Mr. Gordon's August 8 reporting on Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno's account of essentially the same phenomenon does acknowledge that critics of the Bush administration assert that there is no proof of Iranian state involvement in supplying the IED devices, the article is riddled with innuendo accusatory of Iran, such as identifying "Iranian-backed cells" as if they existed as verified definable entities, and they had been proved to have ties to Iran. Mr. Gordon's piece appears on page 1 of the Times above the fold (as did his July 2 piece) thus increasing the hype factor. The Times should save its partisanship for the editorial pages, and not [countenance] it in its reporting.

Sincerely,

William O. Beeman Professor and Chair Department of Anthropology University of Minnesota Minneapolis, MN 55455

President, Middle East Section, American Anthropological Association"

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Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Pakistani Editor: 'Tancredo has Expressed his Evil, inner Self'



At IC Global Affairs, the editors of major Pakistani newspapers reply to Tom Tancredo and Barack Obama.

The issue came up again at the AFL-CIO debate in Chicago last night, with Obama being generally criticized by the other candidates not so much for the policy but for the unnuanced way he articulated it.

Meanwhile, at the Napoleon in Egypt Blog, Gen. Bonaparte's letter to the Pasha of Egypt.

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Al-Maliki Declines Turkish Treaty on Terrorism
Kurdistan Passes Oil Law



Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appears to have been ambushed by Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his visit to Ankara, when Erdogan suddenly presented him with a thoroughgoing counter-terrorism treaty to sign, pledging the Iraqi government to go after the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party), which it branded a terrorist organization. Al-Maliki declined to sign that broad document. Instead, he signed a much narrower memorandum of understanding that he would attempt to expel the PKK from Iraq. He is said to have avoided calling the PKK a terrorist organization (the US government categorizes it that way) because his Kurdish allies nixed it.

Al-Maliki is not in a position, politically speaking, to crack down hard on the PKK, several thousand of whose fighters are being given safe harbor by the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq. Al-Maliki has been deserted by some of his former Shiite allies in parliament, including the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), the Sadr Movement, and the secular Shiites of the Iraqi National List. He has also lost the Sunni Arab bloc, the Iraqi Accord Front. He would be open to failing a vote of no confidence without the backing of the Kurdistan Alliance. Therefore, he has to keep Massoud Barzani happy. He has no choice if he wants to go on being prime minister. And Barzani is the architect of the policy of giving the PKK a haven in Iraq.

The money graf from Aljazeera is:

' Al Jazeera's Hoda Abdel Hamid, reporting from the Kurdish region of Erbil in Iraq, said most people there did not believe an invasion would actually happen, but would back the PKK against what they see as an oppressive regime, if it did. There is also suspicion that the real reason behind the threats has to do with not wanting an autonomous Kurdish region just across its border.'


The Turkish paper Sabah complained that al-Maliki had freely branded the PKK a terrorist organization when speaking to the press corps on board his plane to Ankara. But when suddenly faced with the prospect of signing a formal commitment that branded them as such, he turned evasive.

The real achievement of the trip was probably the understandings reached on energy issues. If security can improve to the point where Iraqi petroleum and gas are exported via Turkey, Turkey can make billions off tolls. At the moment, pipeline sabotage has prevented much in the way of exports from the Kirkuk fields to the Mediterranean via Turkey.

Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Regional Government passed its own petroleum law on Monday, even though the Federal parliament has not yet passed its. The Kurds are claiming extensive autonomy from Baghdad for their petroleum industry.

Sawt al-Iraq, writing in Arabic, reports that the Association of Muslim Scholars (Sunni fundamentalists) immediately called on foreign firms to boycott Kurdistan oil investments. AMS, which stands for a strong central government and opposes loose federalism, is linked to the 1920 Revolution Brigades guerrilla group.

Turkish-US relations are still shaky, and Turkey is threatening to stop supplies going across its territory to US troops in Iraq if Congress passes a resolution recognizing the WWI genocide against the Armenians conducted by Ottoman officers.

Iraqi guerrillas killed 26 US troops in the first week of August, with 6 killed on Monday alone. Several were killed in Diyala Province by Sunni Arab guerrillas, whom they have been fighting. Guerrillas killed another 4 on Tuesday with roadside bombs.

The US military appears to continue to ascribe all roadside bombings in Baghdad deploying explosively formed projectiles to Shiite militiamen, but this conclusion is shaky for all sorts of reasons. There is every reason to believe that Sunni Arab guerrillas could manufacture these devices, since the plates involved are made for the Iraqi oil industry, as well. And, if Iran did give any to anyone it would have been to the Badr Corps paramilitary, which may have failed to secure its warehouses or which may have some corrupt members that have sold off some of the munitions.

Unfortunately, the Pentagon allegations, which are attempting to implicate Iran in the killing of US troops, have already been used by Senator Joe Lieberman in a saber-rattling resolution against Tehran, and are a foot in the door for the war party in Washington with regard to getting up military action against Iran. That it is mostly based on innuendo, unsubstantiated assumptions, and faulty reasoning will do us no good if the politicians start believing this stuff and using it to throw more billions to Boeing, Lockheed Martin and other arms manufacturers.

Reuters details civil war violence for Tuesday, including the discovery of 16 bodies in the streets of Baghdad and several roadside bombs and mortar attacks. McClatchy gives further incidents.

UPI asks, "Time to withdraw the petroleum bill"?

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Bush v. Zombies



A satire on Bush administration fear-mongering.



courtesy YouTube.
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US Deployment of Mass Terror: Hiroshima



Not a shining moment.



From YouTube.
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Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Farhi on Afghanistan, Iraq and the Bush Administration’s Incoherent Iran Policy



At our Global Affairs group blog, Farideh Farhi explains "Afghanistan, Iraq and the Bush Administration’s Incoherent Iran Policy".

She points out that Bush said on Monday that Iran's leaders had announced their intention to acquire a nuclear weapon, which is of course the opposite of what all Iranian political figures have said.

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A Surge of Phony Spin on Iraq: Cole in Salon



My column is out in Salon.com Tuesday:

A surge of phony spin on Iraq

Bush's backers are peddling a sunny view of the president's strategy -- despite Iraq's political chaos and soaring death counts.

excerpts:

' The troop escalation was intended to calm down Baghdad and to give the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki breathing room to pursue a political reconciliation, especially with the Sunni Arab population. But the political goals of the surge are simply not being accomplished -- and indeed, the political situation has deteriorated substantially. Maliki has lost even the few Sunni Arab allies he began with . . .

And what of the supposed "good news" on the military side of the equation? Before July ended, a spate of wire service and newspaper reports began appearing, saying that only 74 U.S. troops had been killed by Iraqi guerrillas that month, the lowest total since November and a sign that the surge was working. But the reporters and editors who gave us headlines such as "U.S. Death Toll in Iraq in July Expected to Be Lowest in '07" (New York Times) were being assiduously spun. Bush officials were undoubtedly pushing the information that produced these headlines in an attempt to give Republicans in Congress some good news to take back to their constituents during the August recess. . .


Read the whole thing.

At our group blog, an interview with an Afgan woman in parliament about why Helmand Province is going to hell in a handbasket.

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Napoleon's Egypt and the Page 99 Test



Marshal Zeringue's Page 99 Test highlights my new book, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East.

This book blog is premised on Ford Maddox Ford's bon mot, "Open the book to page ninety-nine and read, and the quality of the whole will be revealed to you."



Also, at the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, Bourrienne's account of the taking of the port of Alexandria.

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122 Dead in Civil War Violence;
The Collapse of the al-Maliki Cabinet



The cabinet ministers in the al-Maliki government belonging to the National Iraqi List led by Iyad Allawi suspended their participation on Monday. They did not withdraw altogether from the government, just declined to come to meetings. But now some 17 cabinet ministers have either resigned or suspended their membership, out of 38 (see this analysis below).

Until the various rifts are repaired, assuming that they can be, it is no longer possible to speak of al-Maliki's as a national unity government. Indeed, it is likely that it is a minority government that does not fall only because it is not clear to parliamentarians what would be gained from inducing its collapse.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Ibrahim Jaafari, the former prime minister of Iraq and former head of the Islamic Call [al-Da`wa] Party is planning to begin a new party, the National Reform Assembly as a way of returning to power as prime minister sometime during the next three months. He is also seeking a constitutional change to make Iraq a combination presidential-parliamentary regime (as with France) instead of a straight parliamentary government (as with the UK).

The new party plans to contest the forthcoming provincial elections as a single party, not as part of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. Jaafari is attempting to make it into a cross-sectarian, cross-ethnic coalition, that will encompass the Sadr Movement, the Iraqi Islamic Party (Sunni), the National Congress (secular), two wings of the Da`wa Party, the Shiite Turkmens, the Kurdistan Movement (Sunni), the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), the Democratic National Movement (Sunni), the secular Turkmen, as well as Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish tribes and some prominent secularist personalities. The cross-sectarian character of the new party is turning heads in Iraq, where an expectation had grown up that parties and coalitions are formed within sects and ethnicities. It is rumored that neighboring countries approve of the new party, but it is not yet known how Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of the Shiites, will respond.

The US embassy in Baghdad held a meeting with Iranian counterparts as part of an ongoing security committee meant to dampen down Iraq's sectarian civil war. Iran, as a Shiite power, supports the Shiite Iraqis. Al-Hayat writing in Arabic quotes an Iraqi official, Labid Abbawi of the foreign ministry, who was present, as saying that the US and Iran demonstrated a great deal of flexibility and mutual understanding. The four-hour meeting was technical in character and concentrated on the shape of the subcommittees that will meet regularly.

A US charge that 75 percent of attacks on US troops in Baghdad are now originating with Shiite militias (since the Sunni Arab guerrillas are lying low or have been chased out) was intended to implicate Iran. The charge is ridiculous on the face of it, since most attacks on US troops occur in Sunni Arab or mixed areas, and there is no reason to think that the US military has the slightest idea who is behind them; in Sadr City itself, one can presume the attackers are Shiite, but relatively few troops are attacked there. Some observers are mistakenly saying that the US military is accusing Shiites of being behind 75 percent of attack in Iraq rather than in Baghdad (though the latter is not plausible, either).

Karen DeYoung and Thomas E. Ricks at WaPo have an excellent overview of the collapsing security and political situation in Basra. What most American observers do not realize is that as Basra goes, so goes Iraq. Meanwhile, As the British withdraw, they are leaving behind dozens of Iraqi interpreters whose lives are in danger because they are seen as collaborators by Shiite militiamen.

Iraqi petroleum minister Hussein Shahristani appears to be using Saddam-era anti-union laws to bust the Basra petroleum workers union, which has opposed the privatization of the Iraqi petroleum industry. Look into it a little bit and you will find that Shahristani's American allies have suggested that he pursue this path. After all, who pioneered the busting of unions so as to keep the people poor and the rich powerful? And if emulating Saddam's laws and methods are the only way to accomplish the goal? Too bad!

Michael Howard at the Guardian gives a thoughtful and informed overview of the new oil industry in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurds are caught between a desire for autonomy in the oil industry, desire to please their American allies, fears that oil privatization will deprive them of the benefits of their reservers, and fear of the industry being re-centralized under Baghdad government control.

Al-Hayat reported 122 dead in country-wide violence on Monday, including the 60 bodies found near Baquba and the 33 killed in a truck bombing at Tal Afar.

Sawt al-Iraq reports that on Tuesday afternoon a car bomb targeted a school in Hilla that was associated with Grand Ayatollah Sistani. No casualties were mentioned, but it suffered damage. In Najaf during the past two months, schools and other institutions belonging to Sistani have been targeted and four of his aides have been assassinated.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Monday, including the discovery of 17 corpses in the streets of the capital. Also:

' BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb concealed in rubbish killed six people and wounded 10 when it blew up in the southern Baghdad neighbourhood of Jisr Diyala as street cleaners were sweeping the road, police said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb in a bus killed two people and wounded nine others, including women and children, in Baghdad's eastern Shi'ite neighbourhood of Ghadir, police said. . .

SHIRQAT - Police found the bodies of five Iraqi soldiers in the northern town of Shirqat, police said. . .

SALAHUDDIN - U.S. forces said they killed 11 insurgents and detained 10 suspects during combat operations targeting al Qaeda in Iraq. Seven were killed in an air strike east of Balad.'

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Satire: I Wanna Be Like Usama



I've always been a firm believer in making fun of the bad guys, since they derive some of their power from being taken seriously.



From YouTube.

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John Edwards on the Pernicious Influence of Lobbyists on US Politics: Yearly Kos





Thanks to David Sirota & YouTube.

See also Dennis Perrin's detailed and sometimes dyspeptic account of his Yearly Kos experience at Huffington Post.

And Manan Ahmed gives his impressions here; Manan had a slight disagreement with the Obama camp over Pakistan.
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Analysis of al-Maliki's Cabinet



Regarding the collapsing al-Maliki government, an informed observer writes:

"The analysis of the current composition of the Council of Ministers is now complete. There are 38 Cabinet-level positions, not 40 as sometimes reported in the mainstream press-media. If the AP-reported number of 17 Ministers is correct, the non-participating Ministers would be the following 12: Justice, Planning; Health, Higher Education and Scientific Research, Transportation, Communications, Culture, Human Rights, Tourism and Antiquities, [Minister of State for] Foreign Affairs, [Minister of State for] Governorate Affairs, [Minister of State for] Women’s Affairs plus 5 of the following 7: Immigration and Displaced Persons, Labor and Social Affairs, Youth and Sports, Civil Society Affairs, Council of Representatives Affairs and 2 Ministers of State without portfolio.

Viewed from the opposite perspective, the Ministries listed below are held by SIIC, Da’awa and the KRG (the “Quadripartite Coalition” or the Hadley Memorandum “alternative political base coalition”). The relatively weight of the Ministries held by the KRG is apparent. The defect in the Hadley Memorandum remains the 20-vote deficiency from a majority of 138. Of the 7 Ministries held by the IAF, the Iraqi Islamic Party has 4, the party of Dulaimi has 2 and the party of As’ad Kamal Muhammad Abdallah al-Hashimi, Minister of Culture (Iraqi Accord Front - Al-Tawafuq) has himself. Regarding the Minister of Defense, the following formulations of his name have been reported: Abdul Qadir Muhammed Ja[s]sim, a Sunni Arab, as the new Minister of Defense. Iraqi Minister of Defense Abdel Qader al-Obeidi Iraqi Minister of Defense Abd al-Qadir al-Mufriji

Other points include the importance of coordination between and among the Ministries of Industry, Trade, Transportation and Tourism, 2 of whom remain. Jack SIIC: Baqir Jabr al-Zubaydi (a.k.a. Bayan Jabr), Minister of Finance (Unified Iraqi Coalition - SCIRI) Riyad Ghurayyib, Minister of Municipalities and Public Works (Unified Iraqi Coalition – Badr Organization) Dr. Akram al-Hakim, Minister of State for the National Dialogue Affairs (Unified Iraqi Coalition - SIIC) Da’awa: Dr. Khudayyir al-Khuza’i Minister of Education (Unified Iraqi Coalition – Dawa [Al-Anzi]) Dr. Abd-al-Falah al-Sudani, Minister of Trade (Unified Iraqi Coalition – Dawa [Al-Anzi]) Shirwan Kamil al-Waili, Minister of State for National Security KRG: Dr. Barham Salih, Deputy Prime Minister (Kurdistan Coalition - PUK) Hoshayr Zebari, Minister of Foreign Affairs (Unified Iraqi Coalition - KDP) Fawzi al-Hariri, Minister of Industry (Kurdistan Coalition – KDP [Christian]) Dr. Latif Rashid, Minister of Water Resources (Kurdistan Coalition - PUK) Mrs. Bayan Daza’i, Minister of Housing and Construction (Kurdistan Coalition - KDP) Mrs. Narmin Uthman, Minister of Environment (Kurdistan Coalition - PUK) "
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Monday, August 06, 2007

Republican Candidates for Staying the Course;
Tal Afar Bombing Kills 25;
60 Bodies found Near Baquba;
190,000 Guns Unaccounted for by Pentagon



Republican candidates on Iraq Sunday:

“They are making progress, and we are winning on the ground,” said Senator John McCain of Arizona. “We must win. And we will not set a date for surrender, as the Democrats want us to do.” . .

“The reality is that you do not achieve peace through weakness and appeasement,” said Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York. . .

Mr. Romney said: “I think we’re pretty much in the same place. It is critical for us to win this conflict. It is essential, and that’s why we’re going to continue to pursue this effort.”


Could they please define "win this conflict"? What would that look like? Whose ox would they gore to achieve it? How exactly would they pull it off?

A suicide bomber hit a Shiite neighborhood in the northern Turkmen city of Tal Afar Monday morning. Initial reports gave the death toll as 25 and the wounded as 22, but the tolls are expected to rise.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani denied that Iran is supporting Shiite militias in Iraq, saying that the idea was probably based on old intelligence.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Talabani met with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, along with Shiite vice president Adil Abdul Mahdi. Talabani says he had had a conversation with George W. Bush and was instructed to impress on al-Maliki that Bush's support is for the general political process in Iraq, not for any one individual. Talabani said that the implication is that al-Maliki is to blame for the current political crisis in which over a dozen ministers and the parties they represent have withdrawn from his government. Sunni VP Tariq al-Hashimi did not attend the meeting, since his party is among those who withdrew from the government. Al-Maliki declined to accept the Sunnis' resignations, leaving the door open to reconciliation. Talabani is pursuing talks with the Sunni Arabs.

Al-Maliki's government is clearly teetering and may fall.

[At the group blog, A. Richard Norton comments on Sunday's outcome in the Lebanese by-election. Also some info on the situation in Afghanistan.]

The Bush administration cannot account for 190,000 AK 47 machine guns and pistols it gave Iraqi security forces in 04 and 05. Actually, I think it is pretty obvious where some of them went.

Reuters reports that Iraqi police say they discovered 60 decomposing bodies in a field near Baqubah. The city is a prize in the ongoing fight between Sunni Arabs (the majority in the city) and the Shiite militias (from whom the local police are recruited).

In Baghdad, Police found 18 corpses in the streets, victims of sectarian death squads.

Guerrillas used mortars to target civilians in a Shiite Baghdad market, killing 11.

Reuters adds, "The bodies of three people were found shot and tortured on Saturday in the town of Mahaweel, 75 km (50 miles) south of Baghdad, police said."

In Mosul, Iraqi guards had to call in US troops to help put down a major riot at Badoush prison involving over 60 inmates, leaving one dead and two wounded.

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Bonaparte's Proclamation on Overthrowing the Ottoman Beys of Egypt



Just one day until the book is out!.


From the Napoleon's Egypt Blog today, Bonaparte's June 1798 proclamation to his troops on the rationale for attacking Ottoman Egypt.

Main points:

1. The Ottoman-Egyptian Beys ("Mamluks" or slave-soldiers) were favoring British commerce over French.

2. The beys had mistreated French merchants.

3. The beys were tyrants who injured their own people with their tyranny.

In other words, the Mamluks constituted a gathering threat to France, were siding with a menacing enemy that sought to terrorize France, and had tyrannized and murdered their own people. The text:


---

Before landing at Alexandria he [Gen. Bonaparte] issued the following proclamation:

"Soldiers ! You are about to undertake a conquest the effects of which will be incalculable on civilisation and the commercial world. "

"You will deal England the surest and most sensible blow while waiting to kill her outright. "

"We shall make some fatiguing marches; we shall fight several battles; we shall succeed in all our enterprises; the fates are for us. "

"The Mameluke Beys, who exclusively favour English commerce, who have ill-treated our merchants, and who tyrannise over the inhabitants of the Nile, a few days after our arrival will have ceased to exist. "

"The people amongst whom we are going to live are Mohammedans ; the first article of their faith is 'There is no God but God, and [Muhammad] is his prophet.' Do not contradict them. Deal with them as we dealt with the Jews and with the Italians. Respect their muftis and their imaums, as you respected rabbis and bishops."

"Show for the ceremonies prescribed by the Koran, and for the mosques, the same toleration you have always shown for convents, for synagogues, for the religion of Moses and that of Jesus Christ. "

"The Roman legions protected all religions. You will find customs here different from those of Europe: you must habituate yourselves to them."

"The people here treat their wives differently from us; but in all countries the man who commits rape is a monster."

"Pillage only enriches a few men. It dishonours us; it destroys our resources; it renders the people hostile when it is necessary to make them friendly."

"The first town we shall enter was built by Alexander. We shall find at each step souvenirs worthy of exciting the emulation of Frenchmen."

BONAPARTE. '
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Obama Sticks to his Guns



Senator Obama still can't see why it is controversial for him to threaten to violate Pakistan's sovereignty to get at the Arab al-Qaeda in Waziristan.

His comments of last week roiled US-Pakistani relations.

What he should be saying is that if he had an opportunity to deploy a Predator against Bin Laden he would do it, and that he is sure that Gen. Musharraf would cooperate. He is setting up an unlikely hypothetical, and in the hypothetical he is setting up an ally as essentially an enemy (implying that Musharraf is covering for Bin Laden or something).

His remarks suggested that he is attached to the Bush Doctrine of unilateral and preemptive military action, which violates the United Nations Charter. In the Republican debate, the candidate that sounded closest to Obama's stance on this was Rudy Giuliani. That should tell you something.

And he is angering the Pakistani public for no good reason. (I mean, if Musharraf, whom al-Qaeda has twice tried to kill with bombs, can't find them, how likely is it that Obama can?) His remarks are remarkably flat-footed for someone who has read the history of British colonialism in Kenya; isn't this just a variant of the White Man's Burden, a way of saying that the Wily Oriental Gentlemen aren't up to it?

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Iraqi Sermons on the Sunni Withdrawal, Saudi Calls for Destruction of Shrines



The USG Open Source Center translates select passages from Sunni and Shiite sermons from last Friday in Iraq. Many of the Shiite preachers condemned the recent fatwas of Wahhabi Saudi clerics calling for the destruction of Shiite shrines. (Wahhabi Islam, like radical Protestantism, despises saints' shrines and denounces the idea of an intermediary between God and man. Shiite Islam is all about intermediaries--primarily descendants of the Prophet-- between God and human beings.) The Shiites also condemned the decision of the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front to withdraw from the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government. The Sunni clerics applauded the move.

' Iraqi Friday Sermons Critical of Al-Tawafuq's Withdrawal, Saudi 'Takfiri Fatwas'
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Sunday, August 5, 2007

Major Iraqi television channels - Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah, Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Channel, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah, Baghdad Al-Furat, Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah, and Baghdad Al-Diyar - are observed on 3 August to carry the following reports on Friday sermons:

Al-Iraqiyah:

Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic - government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network - is not observed to carry any reports on Friday sermons due to a technical failure.

Baghdad Satellite Channel:

Baghdad Satellite Television in Arabic - television channel believed to be sponsored by the [Sunni Arab] Iraqi Islamic Party - is observed to carry at 1012 GMT a Friday sermon from an unidentified mosque. Shaykh Abd-al-Karim al-Samarra'i delivers the sermon.

In this Friday sermon, the [Sunni] preacher says that many nations are "launching a fierce struggle against this wounded nation, which is now exposed." He adds that these nations are "plundering its resources to the point where it has become a toy in the hands of the whole world." The preacher says this based on a saying by the prophet. He says that the prophet defined the "disease," which is "love for life in this world and hate for death."

The preacher adds: "When the nation is affectionately attached to life in this world and hates death and meeting Almighty God, it will then refuse to move from weakness to pride and glory." He says that "loving life in this world and being affectionately attached to it lead to perdition and destruction."

He says that this also "leads to defeats and setbacks, particularly in the battles of faith in which the truth confronts falsehood. Almighty God tests the hearts of the faithful ones in these battles. If he finds that they are pure and are not affectionately attached to life in this world, the result will be victory. However, if these hearts are affectionately attached to life in this world, leaving behind love for meeting Almighty God, the result will then inevitably be defeat."

Commenting on the withdrawal of the Al-Tawafuq (Accord) Front from the government, the preacher says: "As a result of this exclusion and marginalizing, this front has withdrawn from this government in the hope of giving a chance to this government, which claimed that the front has been obstructing its march throughout the past period. So, let this government take this chance to show us what it will do to the Iraqis."

Al-Sharqiyah: Within its 1300 GMT newscast on 5 August (repeat, 5 August), Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic - independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic language daily Al-Zaman - carries the following report on the 3 August Friday sermon by [Shiite] Shaykh Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji:

"A senior Iraqi official said on Friday: The withdrawal of the Al-Tawafuq Front from the government is not right and we call on them to reconsider their position. He added: We assure them that if they insist on the withdrawal they will only harm themselves."

The report adds that "Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji, a leader in the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC), added in a Friday sermon: I say that they, Al-Tawafuq will return while they are submissive, unwilling, and regretful."

Addressing the Al-Tawafuq leaders, he says: "You either be politicians or leave the world laughing at you. However, if you fear legal prosecution then this is a different issue, which is one of the missions of the judiciary."

Al-Qabbanji adds: "Regrettably, some states provide the terrorists with weapons, others provide them with money, and some others provide them with the media and the space channels. Other states send suicide bombers to Iraq to destroy the new Iraq."

He says: "Some neighboring states plan to topple the government in Iraq. We hope that such news reports are untrue."

Wondering, Al-Qabbanji says: "Why some of them respond to the decisions, recommendations, and pressures by the US secretary of state and the secretary of defense and do not respond to their Iraqi brothers."

He points out: "Saudi Arabia is called upon to curb the advocates of the takfiri (holding other Muslims to be infidel) fatwas (religious rulings). This is although it has announced, through its Foreign Minister Sa'ud al-Faysal, its desire to open an embassy in Iraq. This is a good step, but it is not enough. We are waiting from Saudi Arabia a clear stand toward the fatwas of the takfiris and the preachers of the rulers."

Al-Furat:

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, carries the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Friday preachers denounced the takfiri fatwas [excommunicating Shiites] exported by the Saudi scholars and which incite against Islamic holy places. In another development, the preachers termed the Al-Tawafuq Front's withdrawal from the government as a response to the will of an extremist line in the front. The Friday preachers also rejected the Arab silence over the Saddam regime's invasion of neighboring Kuwait."

Hazim al-A'raji, imam and preacher of Friday sermon at the Al-Kazimiyah shrine, says: "The Arab League denounced the attack on the Umm al-Qura Mosque. Yes, the mosque is the house of God, and we denounce the attack on it. However, I say where was the Arab League when the takfiri Wahhabi scholars in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait issued a fatwa, which will last for generations and hundreds of years, on destroying the Imam Al-Husayn Shrine?"

Commenting on the withdrawal of the Al-Tawafuq Front from the government, Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, says: "The moderate elements in the Al-Tawafuq Front were pressured to adopt such a stand. A conspiracy was being hatched and they spoke to us about it to the effect that what they call the mujahidin of hotels in Amman used to exert big pressures on them to force them to withdraw from the government."

On the anniversary of the Saddam regime's invasion of Kuwait, Shaykh Salih al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "Yesterday marked the anniversary of the invasion of Kuwait. However, the reaction to this was weak by the states neighboring Kuwait. This anniversary shows Saddam's criminal and heinous actions. Some states sponsor Saddam's supporters."

The channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program at 1808 GMT, as follows:

Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, says: "Ten rockets were fired at the city of Balad yesterday. The same number of rockets was also fired at the city. One of these rockets hit the outside gate of the shrine of Al-Sayyid Muhammad, son of Imam Al-Hadi, may God's peace and blessing be upon him. Although we have no doubts that the patient people in Balad and Al-Dujayl can stand fast and can be patient, we say that this patience should be rewarded by the government by quick measures in order to repulse the aggression against them. There is information about a major attack on the city of Balad. This could repeat the tragedy of Diyala."

He warns the government against "the nature of the false reports," "which are submitted by the security forces in the Al-Saydiyah area to the Interior Ministry." He says: "These reports say that the area lives in peace at a time when we see the terrorists of Al-Qa'ida and the so-called Islamic Army and the 1920 Revolution Brigades moving about in broad daylight, killing the Sunni and the Shiite, and displacing the Sunni and the Shiite."

Shaykh Salih al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "Yesterday marked the anniversary of the invasion of Kuwait. However, the reaction to this was weak by the states neighboring Kuwait. This anniversary shows Saddam's criminal and heinous actions. Some states sponsor Saddam's supporters."