Cheney Urges Strike on Iran: McClatchy
Bush threatens al-Maliki then Backs Off
Bombing in Taji Kills 7

Warren P. Strobel, John Walcott and Nancy A. Youssef of McClatchy report that VP Dick Cheney has been urging a military strike on Iran, but that Bush has decided for the moment to hit Shiite allies of Iran inside Iraq. (Since the majority of Iraqi Shiites are allies of Iran, he will have a lot of targets). (See also Blue Girl on this issue.

Even the famously tongue-tied George W. Bush has never outdone himself in producing diplomatic confusion the way he did on Thursday-- as Farideh Farhi points out at our group blog. First, he faced the difficulty that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki affirmed that Iran is playing a helpful role in Iraq. This statement came on the heels of a similar assertion by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, which Bush contradicted. So he contradicted al-Maliki, as well. Somehow, unlike Fox Cable News, US allies in the Middle East don't seem to be able just to parrot White House talking points. But Bush in correcting al-Maliki got off on a flight of rhetoric and seemed to be addressing him personally with a threat. Later on he had to clarify that the threat was directed against Iran, not al-Maliki. Al-Maliki is a longtime activist of the [Shi`ite] Islamic Call Party (Da`wa), which sought refuge in Iran during the 1980s and 1990s from Saddam Hussein's persecution. Da`wa has every reason to be deeply indebted to Iran and can't be expected to badmouth the ayatollahs. Bush seems to be continually surprised to find that he has put Iran's allies in power in Kabul and Baghdad. Attempting to explain why al-Maliki was so warmly greeting the Iranian officials he was meeting Bush said, '"You don't want the picture to be kind of, you know, duking it out," Bush said, holding up his fists like a boxer as he called Iran "a very troubling nation" that must be isolated.' Iran's press stressed that Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei pledged full Iranian support for the elected government of Iraq, urged unity among all Iraq's religious and sectarian groups, and said that peace would only return when US troops departed the country.

The Iraqi oil minister, Husayn Shahristani, said Thursday that all international oil companies would have to compete with bids for the development of Iraqi petroleum. He implied that US firms would have no special access, and went out of his way to say that the Russian firm Lukoil would have some advantages insofar as it had a history of working in Iraq. The Shiite deep south is not as insecure as the west, center and north of the country, such that work might actually start down there in the foreseeable future. Given the overwhelming position the US military and diplomatic corps has in Iraq, it would not be surprising if the Iraqis attempted to diversify their foreign patrons by turning to multinationals based in other countries.

Meanwhile, Chevron and Total (French) have already signed a deal to develop the Majnun oil fields near Basra.

Iraqi refugees in Amman have often gone from riches to rags. This wretched diaspora of nearly 1 million persons has the potential to roil Jordanian society (Jordan's citizen population is only 5.2 million). It also stands as a reproach to US policies in Iraq, which have helped produce so much misery. As the intrepid Patrick Cockburn observes, the acceleration of the exodus from Iraq is one of the indications that the surge has not succeeded in the way the Pentagon spokesmen proclaim.

A vehicle ban in Falluja has reduced attacks in the city from 200 a month to 30. The downside? Walking everywhere you need to go in a city of 300,000.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday. Note that the Shiite militiamen are busy with the pilgrimage to the shrine of Imam Musa al-Kazim in north Baghdad, and so only dispatched 9 persons Wednesday night. Major incidents:

' NEAR TAJI - A suicide car bomb killed seven people and wounded eight near a market in Salih al-Khalaf village, north of Baghdad on Tuesday, the U.S. military said. Another military statement said eight people were killed and 16 wounded. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed three people and wounded two in the southern Baghdad district of Bayaa, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Gunmen shot and wounded three Iraqi soldiers in western Baghdad's Yarmouk district, police said. . .

NEAR RUMAILA OILFIELDS - A roadside bomb killed two British soldiers and seriously wounded two others on Wednesday when it detonated near a military convoy driving north of southern Iraq's Rumaila oilfields, the British military said. '

At the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, the Battle of Shubrakhit.

Rumors Musharraf will impose Emergency Laws in Pakistan
Islamabad blames Obama

Blogger acting up, affecting comments, archives. Should clear up soon. Sorry.

Rumors are flying in Pakistan that Gen. Pervez Musharraf may declare what amounts to martial law, responding to 'external' and 'internal' threats.

[Musharraf announced Thursday that he was not in fact going to declare an emergency. Some have speculated that he was posturing to get the Bush administration to back off pressuring him to crack down on fundamentalist Muslims in Pakistan.]

The Pakistani government is implying that the comments of US presidential candidate Barack Obama about bombing northern Pakistan to get at al-Qaeda are part of the impetus for the move, but that is self-serving.

Still, it won't do Senator Obama's campaign any good for him to be invoked as part of the reason for Pakistan moving away from democracy toward emergency rule. He should not have stuck to his guns on Sunday and subsequently; being able to fix a mistake gracefully is key to success in politics.

See also Manan Ahmed's comments at our Global Affairs group blog.

US Military Strikes Embarrass al-Maliki While he is in Tehran

The US military took advantage of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's absence from the country to settle some scores with the Mahdi Army in Sadr City (East Baghad), attacking units there and mounting air strikes on them, killing 32 and wounding about a dozen. Local observers claimed that the attacks killed 9 innocent civilians, but the US military said the casualties were militiamen. When al-Maliki is in Baghdad, he tends to run interference for the Sadr Movement, which elected him to office, and to attempt to convince the US military to put off attacking these Shiite forces until after the Sunni Arab guerrillas are dealt with decisively.

Iraqslogger shows the reaction in Sadr City. It isn't pretty.

Not only did the US military attack these Shiite forces unilaterally, but its spokesmen attempted to link the Mahdi Army cell attacked to the importation of explosively formed projectiles from Iran.

It cannot be an accident that both the attack and the attempt to implicate Iran (with no evidence for the allegations against Tehran provided) came while al-Maliki was in Tehran for high level consultations with the Iranian government.

In other words, the US military is playing a dangerous political game of attempting to undermine al-Maliki's diplomacy with Iran and to alienate the Sadr Movement from him altogether (it has already suspended membership in his government). For more on the timing of (surely overstated) US military announcements implicating Iran so as to undermine talks with Tehran by US and Iraqi diplomats, see Bill Beeman's comments below. This is not the proper role for generals, and it is shocking that Amassador Ryan Crocker and Secretary of State Condi Rice allow it to go on.

In Tehran, al-Maliki was attempting to get Iranian security cooperation and also a pledge of help with providing fuel and electricity to East Baghdad. Al-Maliki is caught between his two patrons, Iran and the US, and needs the support of both to survive politically.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Iranians hit back at US charges at the security meeting in Damascus, saying that the US and Iraq were not in a position to lecture others on terrorism as long as they gave refuge in Iraq to the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO or MEK), which is responsible for numerous bombings and other terrorism in Iran. The US State Department acknowledges that the MEK is a terrorist organization, but the Pentagon is using it against Iran anyway. Turkey likewise chimed in on US/Iraqi hypocrisy, complaining that terrorists of the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) are being coddled inside the Iraqi border.

Meanwhile, Iraq's Shiites, during pilgrimage season to the shrine of Imam Musa al-Kazim (7th in the line after the Prophet Muhammad), have no doubt which external power is to blame for the bombings in Baghdad, and it is not Iran-- it is Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, angry at al-Maliki, Syria and Iran, declined to attend the Damascus security meeting, which I think is a very bad sign. The only way we avoid a proxy war in Iraq between the Saudis and the Iranians is if both sides can do the hard diplomacy to avoid it.

As if the politics and violence were not enough, Iraq is menaced by the imminent collapse of a dam north of Mosul.

The Group News Blog suggests that the British military may well withdraw from Iraq by October.

At the Bonaparte in Egypt blog, the French army marches on Damanhour from Alexandria.

Beeman to NYT: Hyping Iran Threat in Times of Diplomacy

William O. Beeman of the University of Minnesota shared with IC this letter to the editor of the New York Times:

"From: William O. Beeman
Sent: Wed 8/8/2007 3:22 PM
To: letters@nytimes.com
Subject: U.S. Says Bomb Suppled by Iran Kills Troops in Iraq

To the Editor:

Re: "U.S. Says Bomb Suppled by Iran Kills Troops in Iraq" by Michael R. Gordon, August 8, 2007

It is increasingly suspicious that every time the United States has begun a diplomatic initiative with Iran--the latest on August 6, some United States military official in Iraq comes forward to accuse Iran of supplying weapons to attack U.S. troops. Perhaps it is coincidence, but the reporter rendering these accusations for the public seems always to be Michael R. Gordon. These military reports and the Times reportage seem timed to undermine these diplomatic talks. Following the historic May 28 talks between Iran and the United States in Baghdad, the Iranian government called for a second round of talks. As negotiations for this second round were underway General Kevin Bergner provided a briefing on precisely the issue of the IED's covered in the August 8 article by Mr. Gordon. Mr. Gordon's last reportage of General Kevin J. Bergner's account of these Iranian attacks ("U.S. Ties Iran to Deadly Iraq Attack" July 2, 2007) was a textbook case in hype. Mr. Gordon significantly enhanced General Bergner's already specious and exaggerated statements to make the Iranian government appear even more culpable than the evidence in the press conference would warrant. Although Mr. Gordon's August 8 reporting on Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno's account of essentially the same phenomenon does acknowledge that critics of the Bush administration assert that there is no proof of Iranian state involvement in supplying the IED devices, the article is riddled with innuendo accusatory of Iran, such as identifying "Iranian-backed cells" as if they existed as verified definable entities, and they had been proved to have ties to Iran. Mr. Gordon's piece appears on page 1 of the Times above the fold (as did his July 2 piece) thus increasing the hype factor. The Times should save its partisanship for the editorial pages, and not [countenance] it in its reporting.

Sincerely,

William O. Beeman Professor and Chair Department of Anthropology University of Minnesota Minneapolis, MN 55455

President, Middle East Section, American Anthropological Association"

Pakistani Editor: 'Tancredo has Expressed his Evil, inner Self'

At IC Global Affairs, the editors of major Pakistani newspapers reply to Tom Tancredo and Barack Obama.

The issue came up again at the AFL-CIO debate in Chicago last night, with Obama being generally criticized by the other candidates not so much for the policy but for the unnuanced way he articulated it.

Meanwhile, at the Napoleon in Egypt Blog, Gen. Bonaparte's letter to the Pasha of Egypt.

Al-Maliki Declines Turkish Treaty on Terrorism
Kurdistan Passes Oil Law

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appears to have been ambushed by Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his visit to Ankara, when Erdogan suddenly presented him with a thoroughgoing counter-terrorism treaty to sign, pledging the Iraqi government to go after the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party), which it branded a terrorist organization. Al-Maliki declined to sign that broad document. Instead, he signed a much narrower memorandum of understanding that he would attempt to expel the PKK from Iraq. He is said to have avoided calling the PKK a terrorist organization (the US government categorizes it that way) because his Kurdish allies nixed it.

Al-Maliki is not in a position, politically speaking, to crack down hard on the PKK, several thousand of whose fighters are being given safe harbor by the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq. Al-Maliki has been deserted by some of his former Shiite allies in parliament, including the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), the Sadr Movement, and the secular Shiites of the Iraqi National List. He has also lost the Sunni Arab bloc, the Iraqi Accord Front. He would be open to failing a vote of no confidence without the backing of the Kurdistan Alliance. Therefore, he has to keep Massoud Barzani happy. He has no choice if he wants to go on being prime minister. And Barzani is the architect of the policy of giving the PKK a haven in Iraq.

The money graf from Aljazeera is:

' Al Jazeera's Hoda Abdel Hamid, reporting from the Kurdish region of Erbil in Iraq, said most people there did not believe an invasion would actually happen, but would back the PKK against what they see as an oppressive regime, if it did. There is also suspicion that the real reason behind the threats has to do with not wanting an autonomous Kurdish region just across its border.'

The Turkish paper Sabah complained that al-Maliki had freely branded the PKK a terrorist organization when speaking to the press corps on board his plane to Ankara. But when suddenly faced with the prospect of signing a formal commitment that branded them as such, he turned evasive.

The real achievement of the trip was probably the understandings reached on energy issues. If security can improve to the point where Iraqi petroleum and gas are exported via Turkey, Turkey can make billions off tolls. At the moment, pipeline sabotage has prevented much in the way of exports from the Kirkuk fields to the Mediterranean via Turkey.

Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Regional Government passed its own petroleum law on Monday, even though the Federal parliament has not yet passed its. The Kurds are claiming extensive autonomy from Baghdad for their petroleum industry.

Sawt al-Iraq, writing in Arabic, reports that the Association of Muslim Scholars (Sunni fundamentalists) immediately called on foreign firms to boycott Kurdistan oil investments. AMS, which stands for a strong central government and opposes loose federalism, is linked to the 1920 Revolution Brigades guerrilla group.

Turkish-US relations are still shaky, and Turkey is threatening to stop supplies going across its territory to US troops in Iraq if Congress passes a resolution recognizing the WWI genocide against the Armenians conducted by Ottoman officers.

Iraqi guerrillas killed 26 US troops in the first week of August, with 6 killed on Monday alone. Several were killed in Diyala Province by Sunni Arab guerrillas, whom they have been fighting. Guerrillas killed another 4 on Tuesday with roadside bombs.

The US military appears to continue to ascribe all roadside bombings in Baghdad deploying explosively formed projectiles to Shiite militiamen, but this conclusion is shaky for all sorts of reasons. There is every reason to believe that Sunni Arab guerrillas could manufacture these devices, since the plates involved are made for the Iraqi oil industry, as well. And, if Iran did give any to anyone it would have been to the Badr Corps paramilitary, which may have failed to secure its warehouses or which may have some corrupt members that have sold off some of the munitions.

Unfortunately, the Pentagon allegations, which are attempting to implicate Iran in the killing of US troops, have already been used by Senator Joe Lieberman in a saber-rattling resolution against Tehran, and are a foot in the door for the war party in Washington with regard to getting up military action against Iran. That it is mostly based on innuendo, unsubstantiated assumptions, and faulty reasoning will do us no good if the politicians start believing this stuff and using it to throw more billions to Boeing, Lockheed Martin and other arms manufacturers.

Reuters details civil war violence for Tuesday, including the discovery of 16 bodies in the streets of Baghdad and several roadside bombs and mortar attacks. McClatchy gives further incidents.

UPI asks, "Time to withdraw the petroleum bill"?

Bush v. Zombies

A satire on Bush administration fear-mongering.

courtesy YouTube.

US Deployment of Mass Terror: Hiroshima

Not a shining moment.

From YouTube.

Farhi on Afghanistan, Iraq and the Bush Administration’s Incoherent Iran Policy

At our Global Affairs group blog, Farideh Farhi explains "Afghanistan, Iraq and the Bush Administration’s Incoherent Iran Policy".

She points out that Bush said on Monday that Iran's leaders had announced their intention to acquire a nuclear weapon, which is of course the opposite of what all Iranian political figures have said.

A Surge of Phony Spin on Iraq: Cole in Salon

My column is out in Salon.com Tuesday:

A surge of phony spin on Iraq

Bush's backers are peddling a sunny view of the president's strategy -- despite Iraq's political chaos and soaring death counts.

excerpts:

' The troop escalation was intended to calm down Baghdad and to give the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki breathing room to pursue a political reconciliation, especially with the Sunni Arab population. But the political goals of the surge are simply not being accomplished -- and indeed, the political situation has deteriorated substantially. Maliki has lost even the few Sunni Arab allies he began with . . .

And what of the supposed "good news" on the military side of the equation? Before July ended, a spate of wire service and newspaper reports began appearing, saying that only 74 U.S. troops had been killed by Iraqi guerrillas that month, the lowest total since November and a sign that the surge was working. But the reporters and editors who gave us headlines such as "U.S. Death Toll in Iraq in July Expected to Be Lowest in '07" (New York Times) were being assiduously spun. Bush officials were undoubtedly pushing the information that produced these headlines in an attempt to give Republicans in Congress some good news to take back to their constituents during the August recess. . .

Read the whole thing.

At our group blog, an interview with an Afgan woman in parliament about why Helmand Province is going to hell in a handbasket.

Napoleon's Egypt and the Page 99 Test

Marshal Zeringue's Page 99 Test highlights my new book, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East.

This book blog is premised on Ford Maddox Ford's bon mot, "Open the book to page ninety-nine and read, and the quality of the whole will be revealed to you."



Also, at the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, Bourrienne's account of the taking of the port of Alexandria.

122 Dead in Civil War Violence;
The Collapse of the al-Maliki Cabinet

The cabinet ministers in the al-Maliki government belonging to the National Iraqi List led by Iyad Allawi suspended their participation on Monday. They did not withdraw altogether from the government, just declined to come to meetings. But now some 17 cabinet ministers have either resigned or suspended their membership, out of 38 (see this analysis below).

Until the various rifts are repaired, assuming that they can be, it is no longer possible to speak of al-Maliki's as a national unity government. Indeed, it is likely that it is a minority government that does not fall only because it is not clear to parliamentarians what would be gained from inducing its collapse.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Ibrahim Jaafari, the former prime minister of Iraq and former head of the Islamic Call [al-Da`wa] Party is planning to begin a new party, the National Reform Assembly as a way of returning to power as prime minister sometime during the next three months. He is also seeking a constitutional change to make Iraq a combination presidential-parliamentary regime (as with France) instead of a straight parliamentary government (as with the UK).

The new party plans to contest the forthcoming provincial elections as a single party, not as part of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. Jaafari is attempting to make it into a cross-sectarian, cross-ethnic coalition, that will encompass the Sadr Movement, the Iraqi Islamic Party (Sunni), the National Congress (secular), two wings of the Da`wa Party, the Shiite Turkmens, the Kurdistan Movement (Sunni), the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), the Democratic National Movement (Sunni), the secular Turkmen, as well as Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish tribes and some prominent secularist personalities. The cross-sectarian character of the new party is turning heads in Iraq, where an expectation had grown up that parties and coalitions are formed within sects and ethnicities. It is rumored that neighboring countries approve of the new party, but it is not yet known how Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of the Shiites, will respond.

The US embassy in Baghdad held a meeting with Iranian counterparts as part of an ongoing security committee meant to dampen down Iraq's sectarian civil war. Iran, as a Shiite power, supports the Shiite Iraqis. Al-Hayat writing in Arabic quotes an Iraqi official, Labid Abbawi of the foreign ministry, who was present, as saying that the US and Iran demonstrated a great deal of flexibility and mutual understanding. The four-hour meeting was technical in character and concentrated on the shape of the subcommittees that will meet regularly.

A US charge that 75 percent of attacks on US troops in Baghdad are now originating with Shiite militias (since the Sunni Arab guerrillas are lying low or have been chased out) was intended to implicate Iran. The charge is ridiculous on the face of it, since most attacks on US troops occur in Sunni Arab or mixed areas, and there is no reason to think that the US military has the slightest idea who is behind them; in Sadr City itself, one can presume the attackers are Shiite, but relatively few troops are attacked there. Some observers are mistakenly saying that the US military is accusing Shiites of being behind 75 percent of attack in Iraq rather than in Baghdad (though the latter is not plausible, either).

Karen DeYoung and Thomas E. Ricks at WaPo have an excellent overview of the collapsing security and political situation in Basra. What most American observers do not realize is that as Basra goes, so goes Iraq. Meanwhile, As the British withdraw, they are leaving behind dozens of Iraqi interpreters whose lives are in danger because they are seen as collaborators by Shiite militiamen.

Iraqi petroleum minister Hussein Shahristani appears to be using Saddam-era anti-union laws to bust the Basra petroleum workers union, which has opposed the privatization of the Iraqi petroleum industry. Look into it a little bit and you will find that Shahristani's American allies have suggested that he pursue this path. After all, who pioneered the busting of unions so as to keep the people poor and the rich powerful? And if emulating Saddam's laws and methods are the only way to accomplish the goal? Too bad!

Michael Howard at the Guardian gives a thoughtful and informed overview of the new oil industry in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurds are caught between a desire for autonomy in the oil industry, desire to please their American allies, fears that oil privatization will deprive them of the benefits of their reservers, and fear of the industry being re-centralized under Baghdad government control.

Al-Hayat reported 122 dead in country-wide violence on Monday, including the 60 bodies found near Baquba and the 33 killed in a truck bombing at Tal Afar.

Sawt al-Iraq reports that on Tuesday afternoon a car bomb targeted a school in Hilla that was associated with Grand Ayatollah Sistani. No casualties were mentioned, but it suffered damage. In Najaf during the past two months, schools and other institutions belonging to Sistani have been targeted and four of his aides have been assassinated.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Monday, including the discovery of 17 corpses in the streets of the capital. Also:

' BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb concealed in rubbish killed six people and wounded 10 when it blew up in the southern Baghdad neighbourhood of Jisr Diyala as street cleaners were sweeping the road, police said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb in a bus killed two people and wounded nine others, including women and children, in Baghdad's eastern Shi'ite neighbourhood of Ghadir, police said. . .

SHIRQAT - Police found the bodies of five Iraqi soldiers in the northern town of Shirqat, police said. . .

SALAHUDDIN - U.S. forces said they killed 11 insurgents and detained 10 suspects during combat operations targeting al Qaeda in Iraq. Seven were killed in an air strike east of Balad.'

Satire: I Wanna Be Like Usama

I've always been a firm believer in making fun of the bad guys, since they derive some of their power from being taken seriously.

From YouTube.

John Edwards on the Pernicious Influence of Lobbyists on US Politics: Yearly Kos

Thanks to David Sirota & YouTube.

See also Dennis Perrin's detailed and sometimes dyspeptic account of his Yearly Kos experience at Huffington Post.

And Manan Ahmed gives his impressions here; Manan had a slight disagreement with the Obama camp over Pakistan.

Analysis of al-Maliki's Cabinet

Regarding the collapsing al-Maliki government, an informed observer writes:

"The analysis of the current composition of the Council of Ministers is now complete. There are 38 Cabinet-level positions, not 40 as sometimes reported in the mainstream press-media. If the AP-reported number of 17 Ministers is correct, the non-participating Ministers would be the following 12: Justice, Planning; Health, Higher Education and Scientific Research, Transportation, Communications, Culture, Human Rights, Tourism and Antiquities, [Minister of State for] Foreign Affairs, [Minister of State for] Governorate Affairs, [Minister of State for] Women’s Affairs plus 5 of the following 7: Immigration and Displaced Persons, Labor and Social Affairs, Youth and Sports, Civil Society Affairs, Council of Representatives Affairs and 2 Ministers of State without portfolio.

Viewed from the opposite perspective, the Ministries listed below are held by SIIC, Da’awa and the KRG (the “Quadripartite Coalition” or the Hadley Memorandum “alternative political base coalition”). The relatively weight of the Ministries held by the KRG is apparent. The defect in the Hadley Memorandum remains the 20-vote deficiency from a majority of 138. Of the 7 Ministries held by the IAF, the Iraqi Islamic Party has 4, the party of Dulaimi has 2 and the party of As’ad Kamal Muhammad Abdallah al-Hashimi, Minister of Culture (Iraqi Accord Front - Al-Tawafuq) has himself. Regarding the Minister of Defense, the following formulations of his name have been reported: Abdul Qadir Muhammed Ja[s]sim, a Sunni Arab, as the new Minister of Defense. Iraqi Minister of Defense Abdel Qader al-Obeidi Iraqi Minister of Defense Abd al-Qadir al-Mufriji

Other points include the importance of coordination between and among the Ministries of Industry, Trade, Transportation and Tourism, 2 of whom remain. Jack SIIC: Baqir Jabr al-Zubaydi (a.k.a. Bayan Jabr), Minister of Finance (Unified Iraqi Coalition - SCIRI) Riyad Ghurayyib, Minister of Municipalities and Public Works (Unified Iraqi Coalition – Badr Organization) Dr. Akram al-Hakim, Minister of State for the National Dialogue Affairs (Unified Iraqi Coalition - SIIC) Da’awa: Dr. Khudayyir al-Khuza’i Minister of Education (Unified Iraqi Coalition – Dawa [Al-Anzi]) Dr. Abd-al-Falah al-Sudani, Minister of Trade (Unified Iraqi Coalition – Dawa [Al-Anzi]) Shirwan Kamil al-Waili, Minister of State for National Security KRG: Dr. Barham Salih, Deputy Prime Minister (Kurdistan Coalition - PUK) Hoshayr Zebari, Minister of Foreign Affairs (Unified Iraqi Coalition - KDP) Fawzi al-Hariri, Minister of Industry (Kurdistan Coalition – KDP [Christian]) Dr. Latif Rashid, Minister of Water Resources (Kurdistan Coalition - PUK) Mrs. Bayan Daza’i, Minister of Housing and Construction (Kurdistan Coalition - KDP) Mrs. Narmin Uthman, Minister of Environment (Kurdistan Coalition - PUK) "

Republican Candidates for Staying the Course;
Tal Afar Bombing Kills 25;
60 Bodies found Near Baquba;
190,000 Guns Unaccounted for by Pentagon

Republican candidates on Iraq Sunday:

“They are making progress, and we are winning on the ground,” said Senator John McCain of Arizona. “We must win. And we will not set a date for surrender, as the Democrats want us to do.” . .

“The reality is that you do not achieve peace through weakness and appeasement,” said Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York. . .

Mr. Romney said: “I think we’re pretty much in the same place. It is critical for us to win this conflict. It is essential, and that’s why we’re going to continue to pursue this effort.”

Could they please define "win this conflict"? What would that look like? Whose ox would they gore to achieve it? How exactly would they pull it off?

A suicide bomber hit a Shiite neighborhood in the northern Turkmen city of Tal Afar Monday morning. Initial reports gave the death toll as 25 and the wounded as 22, but the tolls are expected to rise.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani denied that Iran is supporting Shiite militias in Iraq, saying that the idea was probably based on old intelligence.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Talabani met with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, along with Shiite vice president Adil Abdul Mahdi. Talabani says he had had a conversation with George W. Bush and was instructed to impress on al-Maliki that Bush's support is for the general political process in Iraq, not for any one individual. Talabani said that the implication is that al-Maliki is to blame for the current political crisis in which over a dozen ministers and the parties they represent have withdrawn from his government. Sunni VP Tariq al-Hashimi did not attend the meeting, since his party is among those who withdrew from the government. Al-Maliki declined to accept the Sunnis' resignations, leaving the door open to reconciliation. Talabani is pursuing talks with the Sunni Arabs.

Al-Maliki's government is clearly teetering and may fall.

[At the group blog, A. Richard Norton comments on Sunday's outcome in the Lebanese by-election. Also some info on the situation in Afghanistan.]

The Bush administration cannot account for 190,000 AK 47 machine guns and pistols it gave Iraqi security forces in 04 and 05. Actually, I think it is pretty obvious where some of them went.

Reuters reports that Iraqi police say they discovered 60 decomposing bodies in a field near Baqubah. The city is a prize in the ongoing fight between Sunni Arabs (the majority in the city) and the Shiite militias (from whom the local police are recruited).

In Baghdad, Police found 18 corpses in the streets, victims of sectarian death squads.

Guerrillas used mortars to target civilians in a Shiite Baghdad market, killing 11.

Reuters adds, "The bodies of three people were found shot and tortured on Saturday in the town of Mahaweel, 75 km (50 miles) south of Baghdad, police said."

In Mosul, Iraqi guards had to call in US troops to help put down a major riot at Badoush prison involving over 60 inmates, leaving one dead and two wounded.

Bonaparte's Proclamation on Overthrowing the Ottoman Beys of Egypt

Just one day until the book is out!.


From the Napoleon's Egypt Blog today, Bonaparte's June 1798 proclamation to his troops on the rationale for attacking Ottoman Egypt.

Main points:

1. The Ottoman-Egyptian Beys ("Mamluks" or slave-soldiers) were favoring British commerce over French.

2. The beys had mistreated French merchants.

3. The beys were tyrants who injured their own people with their tyranny.

In other words, the Mamluks constituted a gathering threat to France, were siding with a menacing enemy that sought to terrorize France, and had tyrannized and murdered their own people. The text:

---

Before landing at Alexandria he [Gen. Bonaparte] issued the following proclamation:

"Soldiers ! You are about to undertake a conquest the effects of which will be incalculable on civilisation and the commercial world. "

"You will deal England the surest and most sensible blow while waiting to kill her outright. "

"We shall make some fatiguing marches; we shall fight several battles; we shall succeed in all our enterprises; the fates are for us. "

"The Mameluke Beys, who exclusively favour English commerce, who have ill-treated our merchants, and who tyrannise over the inhabitants of the Nile, a few days after our arrival will have ceased to exist. "

"The people amongst whom we are going to live are Mohammedans ; the first article of their faith is 'There is no God but God, and [Muhammad] is his prophet.' Do not contradict them. Deal with them as we dealt with the Jews and with the Italians. Respect their muftis and their imaums, as you respected rabbis and bishops."

"Show for the ceremonies prescribed by the Koran, and for the mosques, the same toleration you have always shown for convents, for synagogues, for the religion of Moses and that of Jesus Christ. "

"The Roman legions protected all religions. You will find customs here different from those of Europe: you must habituate yourselves to them."

"The people here treat their wives differently from us; but in all countries the man who commits rape is a monster."

"Pillage only enriches a few men. It dishonours us; it destroys our resources; it renders the people hostile when it is necessary to make them friendly."

"The first town we shall enter was built by Alexander. We shall find at each step souvenirs worthy of exciting the emulation of Frenchmen."

BONAPARTE. '

Obama Sticks to his Guns

Senator Obama still can't see why it is controversial for him to threaten to violate Pakistan's sovereignty to get at the Arab al-Qaeda in Waziristan.

His comments of last week roiled US-Pakistani relations.

What he should be saying is that if he had an opportunity to deploy a Predator against Bin Laden he would do it, and that he is sure that Gen. Musharraf would cooperate. He is setting up an unlikely hypothetical, and in the hypothetical he is setting up an ally as essentially an enemy (implying that Musharraf is covering for Bin Laden or something).

His remarks suggested that he is attached to the Bush Doctrine of unilateral and preemptive military action, which violates the United Nations Charter. In the Republican debate, the candidate that sounded closest to Obama's stance on this was Rudy Giuliani. That should tell you something.

And he is angering the Pakistani public for no good reason. (I mean, if Musharraf, whom al-Qaeda has twice tried to kill with bombs, can't find them, how likely is it that Obama can?) His remarks are remarkably flat-footed for someone who has read the history of British colonialism in Kenya; isn't this just a variant of the White Man's Burden, a way of saying that the Wily Oriental Gentlemen aren't up to it?

Iraqi Sermons on the Sunni Withdrawal, Saudi Calls for Destruction of Shrines

The USG Open Source Center translates select passages from Sunni and Shiite sermons from last Friday in Iraq. Many of the Shiite preachers condemned the recent fatwas of Wahhabi Saudi clerics calling for the destruction of Shiite shrines. (Wahhabi Islam, like radical Protestantism, despises saints' shrines and denounces the idea of an intermediary between God and man. Shiite Islam is all about intermediaries--primarily descendants of the Prophet-- between God and human beings.) The Shiites also condemned the decision of the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front to withdraw from the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government. The Sunni clerics applauded the move.

' Iraqi Friday Sermons Critical of Al-Tawafuq's Withdrawal, Saudi 'Takfiri Fatwas'
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Sunday, August 5, 2007

Major Iraqi television channels - Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah, Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Channel, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah, Baghdad Al-Furat, Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah, and Baghdad Al-Diyar - are observed on 3 August to carry the following reports on Friday sermons:

Al-Iraqiyah:

Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic - government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network - is not observed to carry any reports on Friday sermons due to a technical failure.

Baghdad Satellite Channel:

Baghdad Satellite Television in Arabic - television channel believed to be sponsored by the [Sunni Arab] Iraqi Islamic Party - is observed to carry at 1012 GMT a Friday sermon from an unidentified mosque. Shaykh Abd-al-Karim al-Samarra'i delivers the sermon.

In this Friday sermon, the [Sunni] preacher says that many nations are "launching a fierce struggle against this wounded nation, which is now exposed." He adds that these nations are "plundering its resources to the point where it has become a toy in the hands of the whole world." The preacher says this based on a saying by the prophet. He says that the prophet defined the "disease," which is "love for life in this world and hate for death."

The preacher adds: "When the nation is affectionately attached to life in this world and hates death and meeting Almighty God, it will then refuse to move from weakness to pride and glory." He says that "loving life in this world and being affectionately attached to it lead to perdition and destruction."

He says that this also "leads to defeats and setbacks, particularly in the battles of faith in which the truth confronts falsehood. Almighty God tests the hearts of the faithful ones in these battles. If he finds that they are pure and are not affectionately attached to life in this world, the result will be victory. However, if these hearts are affectionately attached to life in this world, leaving behind love for meeting Almighty God, the result will then inevitably be defeat."

Commenting on the withdrawal of the Al-Tawafuq (Accord) Front from the government, the preacher says: "As a result of this exclusion and marginalizing, this front has withdrawn from this government in the hope of giving a chance to this government, which claimed that the front has been obstructing its march throughout the past period. So, let this government take this chance to show us what it will do to the Iraqis."

Al-Sharqiyah: Within its 1300 GMT newscast on 5 August (repeat, 5 August), Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic - independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic language daily Al-Zaman - carries the following report on the 3 August Friday sermon by [Shiite] Shaykh Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji:

"A senior Iraqi official said on Friday: The withdrawal of the Al-Tawafuq Front from the government is not right and we call on them to reconsider their position. He added: We assure them that if they insist on the withdrawal they will only harm themselves."

The report adds that "Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji, a leader in the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC), added in a Friday sermon: I say that they, Al-Tawafuq will return while they are submissive, unwilling, and regretful."

Addressing the Al-Tawafuq leaders, he says: "You either be politicians or leave the world laughing at you. However, if you fear legal prosecution then this is a different issue, which is one of the missions of the judiciary."

Al-Qabbanji adds: "Regrettably, some states provide the terrorists with weapons, others provide them with money, and some others provide them with the media and the space channels. Other states send suicide bombers to Iraq to destroy the new Iraq."

He says: "Some neighboring states plan to topple the government in Iraq. We hope that such news reports are untrue."

Wondering, Al-Qabbanji says: "Why some of them respond to the decisions, recommendations, and pressures by the US secretary of state and the secretary of defense and do not respond to their Iraqi brothers."

He points out: "Saudi Arabia is called upon to curb the advocates of the takfiri (holding other Muslims to be infidel) fatwas (religious rulings). This is although it has announced, through its Foreign Minister Sa'ud al-Faysal, its desire to open an embassy in Iraq. This is a good step, but it is not enough. We are waiting from Saudi Arabia a clear stand toward the fatwas of the takfiris and the preachers of the rulers."

Al-Furat:

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, carries the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Friday preachers denounced the takfiri fatwas [excommunicating Shiites] exported by the Saudi scholars and which incite against Islamic holy places. In another development, the preachers termed the Al-Tawafuq Front's withdrawal from the government as a response to the will of an extremist line in the front. The Friday preachers also rejected the Arab silence over the Saddam regime's invasion of neighboring Kuwait."

Hazim al-A'raji, imam and preacher of Friday sermon at the Al-Kazimiyah shrine, says: "The Arab League denounced the attack on the Umm al-Qura Mosque. Yes, the mosque is the house of God, and we denounce the attack on it. However, I say where was the Arab League when the takfiri Wahhabi scholars in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait issued a fatwa, which will last for generations and hundreds of years, on destroying the Imam Al-Husayn Shrine?"

Commenting on the withdrawal of the Al-Tawafuq Front from the government, Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, says: "The moderate elements in the Al-Tawafuq Front were pressured to adopt such a stand. A conspiracy was being hatched and they spoke to us about it to the effect that what they call the mujahidin of hotels in Amman used to exert big pressures on them to force them to withdraw from the government."

On the anniversary of the Saddam regime's invasion of Kuwait, Shaykh Salih al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "Yesterday marked the anniversary of the invasion of Kuwait. However, the reaction to this was weak by the states neighboring Kuwait. This anniversary shows Saddam's criminal and heinous actions. Some states sponsor Saddam's supporters."

The channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program at 1808 GMT, as follows:

Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, says: "Ten rockets were fired at the city of Balad yesterday. The same number of rockets was also fired at the city. One of these rockets hit the outside gate of the shrine of Al-Sayyid Muhammad, son of Imam Al-Hadi, may God's peace and blessing be upon him. Although we have no doubts that the patient people in Balad and Al-Dujayl can stand fast and can be patient, we say that this patience should be rewarded by the government by quick measures in order to repulse the aggression against them. There is information about a major attack on the city of Balad. This could repeat the tragedy of Diyala."

He warns the government against "the nature of the false reports," "which are submitted by the security forces in the Al-Saydiyah area to the Interior Ministry." He says: "These reports say that the area lives in peace at a time when we see the terrorists of Al-Qa'ida and the so-called Islamic Army and the 1920 Revolution Brigades moving about in broad daylight, killing the Sunni and the Shiite, and displacing the Sunni and the Shiite."

Shaykh Salih al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "Yesterday marked the anniversary of the invasion of Kuwait. However, the reaction to this was weak by the states neighboring Kuwait. This anniversary shows Saddam's criminal and heinous actions. Some states sponsor Saddam's supporters."

Al-Haydari adds: "So, the position and the indication are clear. In addition to this, this event, Saddam's occupation of Kuwait, was the cause of building the huge foreign camps in the Arab states, particularly in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Before this event, there were no such a big number of US military units. As a result of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait, the US forces deployed in a very large part of Arab territories. Despite this, we have not heard an analysis or a reference to this issue."

He says: "There were also fatwas issued by some scholars in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. These scholars hold other Muslims, particularly the Shiites, to be infidel. These fatwas call for destroying the holy shrines in Iraq and elsewhere, particularly the shrine of Imam Al-Husayn, may God's peace be upon him, in holy Karbala."

Shaykh Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji, says: "Newspapers say, and we hope that this is untrue, and we assume that this is untrue, God willing, that some neighboring states plan to topple the current government and to create a change in Iraq. These states did not plan to topple Saddam, but regrettably, they are now planning to destroy this new and free Iraqi reality. We hope that such reports are untrue. We expect these states to end their interference in Iraqi affairs and to stop supporting terrorism."

Al-Qabbanji adds: "Some Arab states have finally submitted to the recommendations of the US secretary of defense and the US secretary of state who made a visit to the Middle East, during which they obtained a decision from a number of Arab states to support the political process in Iraq and to refrain from obstructing the political process or toppling this government. We ask these states: Why do you respond to the US secretary of defense and the secretary of state and do not respond to your Iraqi brothers when they tell you stop harming us and support us in the media and politically?"

He says: "Why do you succumb to the foreign pressures and do not succumb to your Arab origins and the obligations of these origins? Iraq is being slaughtered while you are watching. Does Iraq need weapons today? Iraq is now suffering from a fuel crisis, but you send us weapons and booby-trapped cars. Come and help us in supplying us with fuel and electricity instead of helping us with booby-trapped cars, suicide bombers, and media and political support for terrorism. If you want to save Iraq, I say that Iraq is now suffering from a real crisis. The services crisis is a real crisis. Where is your help to Iraq in the fuel crisis?"

Al-Qabbanji says: "In addition to this, we are still waiting for a more serious stand from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This is although it has announced, through Saudi Foreign Minister Sa'ud al-Faysal, that it is planning to open an embassy in Baghdad. This is not enough. They should adopt a clear position on the takfiri fatwas that incite against us. Where is the position of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? Saying that you want to open an embassy and to support the political process are only courtesies because you issue one takfiri fatwa after another against us and against the shrines of our imams. Where is the kingdom's political position? We are waiting for this and we will take it as a point against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia if it does not denounce these fatwas and curb the preachers of the rulers, the evil preachers. Saudi Arabia should be held responsible for the takfiri fatwas."

Al-Qabbanji adds: "To those who provide the terrorists with weapons, whichever state it maybe, I say: Let them know that these weapons are not used against the Americans. We are being killed and the shrines of our imams are being destroyed by these weapons. This is despite the fact that no innocent one in Iraq should be killed, an Iraqi or a foreigner."

Commenting on Al-Tawafuq Front's withdrawal from the government, Al-Qabbanji says: "First, we believe that this withdrawal is not right. Second, we call on them to continue to attend (the government's meetings) because they are one of the components and we want Iraq to be for all its components. We call on them to reconsider their position."

Commenting on the withdrawal of the Al-Tawafuq Front from the Iraqi Government, Shaykh Hasan al-Zamili, imam and preacher of the Al-Diwaniyah Friday sermon, says: "We believe that this position is an indivisible part of the plan to topple and foil this government." . . '

Hard of Hearing when it Comes to the Saudis

Iraqslogger discovers that the State Department suddenly can't hear very well when the Saudi foreign minister starts fulminating against 'foreign interference' and 'Occupation' in Iraq.

Plus: Jonathan Steele thinks it is good news that the petroleum bill has stalled out in the Iraqi parliament.

And, Cindy Sheehan is back.

Al-Anbar Residents approve of Sunni withdrawal

Remember all that reporting about "progress" against "al-Qaeda" in al-Anbar Province? But for Sunni Arab Iraqis to hate the foreign Salafi fighters is not strange, and it says nothing about al-Anbar's relationship to the Shiite government in Baghdad. al-Hayat writing in Arabic reports that its interviewees in al-Anbar wholeheartedly supported the withdrawal of the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni fundamentalist) from the Baghdad government. They characterized the move as "deserting a sinking ship."

Su'ud Ahmad, a researcher in the Political Science college at al-Anbar University told al-Hayat, "For the Iraqi Accord Front to continue in the government throughout the recent period was not particularly useful, once the other parties had determined to dominate the government, especially the Shiite Alliance, and to ignore the Front's presence and that of the people it represents." He added, "The Front could not prevent the massacres to which the Sunnis are subjected in Baghdad right to this moment, and could not stop the expulsion of hundreds of Sunni families at the hands of sectarian militias (with the supervision of the government occasionally), could not accomplish any positive change, including regarding the issue of thousands of detainees in the prisons of the Interior Ministry and the prisons of the American Occupation-- the bulk of which are Sunnis."

Shaikh Dr. Thamir al-Dulaimi, an imam, preacher and professor in the Islamic Law Division of the College of Law in Fallujah told al-Hayat, "This step came very late in the day, after the character of the government had become clear soon after the elections, but it is a step on the correct path, since it deprived the government of its ability to claim that it represented all the sections of the Iraqi people at a time when it was practicing the most hideous sort of ethnic cleansing and expulsions with regard to the people in the entire modern history of Iraq."

Iraq's electricity grid is on the verge of collapsing. Baghdad, the capital, is getting only one or two hours a day in the midst of a torrid summer. The Shiite holy city of Karbala has suffered without electricity for three days, which has also led to it lacking water. Karbala's merchants depend on Shiites coming on pilgrimage to the city, and lack of water and electricity discourages this pilgrim trade, costing the city its income.

About a third of Iraqis also lack access to clean water, a situation that will contribute to high infant mortality (small children die easily of dehydration caused by diarrhea) and potentially to the outbreak of diseases dangerous to adults, as well.

Reuters details political violence for Saturday.

Eschaton gets it.

Thanks to Steve Clemons for the kind words!

Candidates at Yearly Kos
Reactions to Arc of Crisis Panel

Alas, although I heard the Democratic candidates for president at Yearly Kos and attended the break-out meeting afterward with Sen. Barack Obama, the controversy over his and Sen. Hillary Clinton's remarks about Pakistan never came up. So, nothing new to report on that score.

Here is some press coverage of the candidates' appearance Saturday afternoon.

In general, I suppose I am disturbed by the tendency of the Democratic candidates to displace 9/11 anxieties onto Afghanistan and Pakistan from Iraq. I can't see a military mission there in the medium term (at what point will the Pushtuns decide--under US military pressure--they aren't committed Muslism who dislike imperialism, and that they've changed their minds and want American bases in their territories?) If you put a lot more US military personnel into the Pushtun areas, they will just become Iraqized. My suggestion is to leave the Pushtuns alone militarily, and to depend mainly on the FBI, CIA and Afghanistan and Pakistan security services to track down the remaining, dangerous Arab al-Qaeda operatives in the area. Over 600 have been captured that way, and the rest can be, as well. As for convincing Pushtuns not to be or not to support Taliban, you can't do that militarily. It may not even be necessary, since polling in Afghanistan shows that everybody hates the Taliban.

Here's some comment on our panel at the Yearly Kos conference:

Democracy Arsenal;

Matthew Yglesias.

And here's the TPMtv interview with me at Yearly Kos in Chicago, directly embedded, via YouTube:

Pakistani Protests against Obama;
Clinton leaves Nukes on the Table;
Tancredo an Inspiration to the Criminally Insane that They, Too, Could run for President

I'm going to hear Senator Barack Obama on Saturday afternoon at the Yearly Kos convention. Will report back on Sunday about his remarks.

On Thursday, he said he would not use nuclear weapons against al-Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, then backed up and said "scratch that," there had been no discussion of nuclear weapons.

Hillary Clinton criticized Obama for (initially?) ruling out the use of nuclear weapons, saying that a president should not take any weapon in the arsenal off the table.

I really think the Democrats are misunderstanding the mood of the American people. Is Senator Clinton saying she would entertain the option of nuking Pakistan or Afghanistan? Wouldn't that kill a lot of innocents and spread radioactive materials around on the grass that cows eat, putting it into milk and thence into local children, increasing their chances of contracting cancer? Isn't Obama absolutely right that this is one instance in which nukes are useless for tactical purposes?

Pakistan, by the way, is a) an ally, b) a nuclear power in its own right, c) a major Muslim country of 160 million, the population of which will soon equal that of the United States, and d) an opinion leader among other Muslim states. Most Pakistanis are not fundamentalists but rather Sufis, traditionalists, mild reformists or secularists. Or at least that is the case now. If US presidential candidates push them to the wall, they can after all decide to turn radical.

(The certifiable Tom Tancredo is talking about holding Islamic holy sites Mecca and Medina hostage to nuclear blackmail. Can't one of Tancredo's family members have him committed, sign the papers and get rich off his estate while he is in a padded room for a few years?)

As for the mostly sane Democrats, could we please stop talking about whether we are going to nuke our allies? I mean, I know that Obama and Clinton are afraid that their Republican rivals will talk tougher than they and will depict them as soft on terrorism. But I can't imagine that the electorate wants to hear that nukes are on the table with regard to the tribes of northern Pakistan!

And if you were Iranian and heard the Clinton and Tancredo remarks, wouldn't you tell your nuclear scientists to start putting in overtime? Wouldn't such talk actually spur nuclear proliferation in the Muslim world?

Ironically, Mitt Romney and John McCain are making hay with charges that Obama is too gung ho and his remarks would interfere with US attempts to build coalitions against terror groups in the region!

It is early in the campaign, and it is not too late for Obama to recover, but it seems obvious that he made a serious error in his speech on Wednesday regarding northern Pakistan.

Reactions from Pakistan continue to roll in regarding the remarks of US Democratic presidential hopeful Obama that he would order unilateral military action in northern Pakistan if there were actionable intelligence on al-Qaeda and the Pakistani government refused to act on it.

The governor of Baluchistan province, Owais Ahmed Ghani, said that Obama's remarks hindered the war on terror. Ghani pointed out that Pakistani troops are the ones doing the hard fighting against extremists in the north (Pakistan has captured over 700 al-Qaeda operatives, more than any other US ally). Dawn writes, 'The governor said the Pakistanis watched their soldiers being killed in the fight against militants, and they say “if that is the sort of signal that is coming out of Washington, why bother? . . Nothing must be said or done which will undermine the vital public support that Pakistan needs, the world needs."

Earlier, about 1,000 tribesmen rallied in Miranshah in the north, pledging to defend themselves if attacked by foreigners. "Hundreds" demonstrated in the capital, Islamabad, against Obama. A small demonstration of 150 was held in Karachi.

Pakistan's foreign minister, Khursheed Kasuri, told AP, "It's a very irresponsible statement, that's all I can say . . . As the election campaign in America is heating up we would not like American candidates to fight their elections and contest elections at our expense."

It is highly undesirable for a presidential candidate to spark this sort of reaction in a country allied with the US. In my view, the episode derives from inexperience on foreign policy and from bad advice from campaign managers and speech writers.

The question is, can Obama repair the damage or was this the moment when the Democratic grassroots decided he is not ready for prime time?

Shiite Militia Attacks on US and British Troops;
The Kurds and the Kirkuk Crisis

Remember that spate of newspaper stories about July seeing the lowest number of US military deaths in Iraq since November? Darrel Plant points out that the stories began before the month was over and before the final tally was even in. It now stands at 81, the same as March. Moreover, as I pointed out, the number was double the usual toll for July, when even guerrillas are too hot to move around much, so this was not a sign of improvement.

Ladies and gentlemen, you and your news sources have been very effectively spun.

A senior member of the Shiite al-Da`wa Party of PM Nuri al-Maliki in the Iraqi parliament, Ali Dabbagh, says that no petroleum law should be passed while the country is under foreign military occupation.

The BBC measures the success of the "surge" or US troop escalation of this spring and summer.

Has the outcome of the Turkish elections and the strong Kurdish presence in parliament caused tensions between Ankara and Irbil to ease? The LA Times raises the question. James Martin reports on the tensions around Kirkuk and its possible annexation by the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Another aide to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani was killed in a drive-by shooting on Friday.

On Thursday, a roadside bomb killed 3 US troops in East Baghdad and wounded another.

I would estimate that 95 percent of all attacks on US troops are done by Sunni Arab guerrillas. The attacks in East Baghdad or Basra, however, are likely the work of Shiite guerrillas. The USG Open Source Center reports on al-Manar footage of the latter. Al-Manar is the television station of the Lebanese Hizbullah Party.

"OSC Observation: Hizballah TV Airs Exclusive Clips of Shiite 'Resistance' in Iraq
Lebanon -- OSC Report
Friday, August 3, 2007

OSC Observation: Hizballah TV Shows Exclusive Footage of Shiite "Resistance" Groups in Iraq

Beirut Al-Manar Television in Arabic -- Affiliated with the pro-Iranian Hizballah -- has been observed to carry within its newscasts exclusive footage of armed operations claimed by Shiite armed groups against US and British forces in Iraq, which is apparently intended to highlight the role of Shiite "resistance" in fighting the US and British "occupation" forces in Iraq.

Since June 2007, the station has carried five reports with "exclusive footage" of armed attacks on US and British forces. The attacks were claimed by the Leagues of the People of Right in Iraq (Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq Fi al-Iraq); the Abi-al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigades; the Holy Karbala Brigades; and the Zayd Bin-Ali Brigades, which -- according to Al-Manar Television -- is affiliated with the Abu-al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigades

On 7 June, the station showed footage of an attack claimed by the Leagues of the People of Right in Iraq on a US Hummer. The station said that the footage was sent to Al-Manar TV on a CD.

On 15 June, the station showed footage of bombings claimed by the Leagues of the People of Right in Iraq targeting a US tank and footage of a US soldier being hit by a sniper fire.

On 6 July, the station carried what it termed as new footage of operations carried out by "the Iraqi resistance against the US and British occupation forces in Iraq." The attacks were claimed by Abi-al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigades, Holy Karbala Brigades, and the Leagues of the People of Right in Iraq.

On 26 July, the station said that it "received a new series of videotaped operations against the US occupation forces in Iraq." The operations were claimed by the Leagues of the People of Right in Iraq and the Zayd Bin-Ali Brigades which, according to Al-Manar Television, is affiliated with the Abu-al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigades.

On 1 August, Al-Manar Television said it received a new videotape of a number of operations against the US and British "occupation forces in Iraq." It said that Abu-al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigades, Zayd Bin-Abi-Ali Brigades, and the Holy Karbala Brigades have claimed responsibility for these operations."

Cole Interview from Yearly Kos

An interview with me at Josh Marshall's Talkingpointsmemo from the Yearly Kos conference. (Top video frame.) Thanks to Josh's staff for the good questions!

Plus Yearly Kos in the headlines.

News from Yearly Kos

The Yearly Kos netroots convention is celebrating grassroots democratic activism.

The Sun-Times covers the events Thursday evening. Howard Dean spoke with perceptiveness and passion about grassroots democracy and the internet.

I was even impressed by Dick Durbin's appearance by video (he was leaving for Iraq and Afghanistan). He was on top of internet issues and also avoided the robot-speak so common among Washington politicians. He came across as a genuine human being.

Senator Clinton won't stay for a smaller breakout session after an appearance on Saturday afternoon, unlike the other candidates. This appears to be an innocent mix-up between her staff and that of Yearly Kos, but the bloggers are deeply disappointed and I think Clinton missed an important opportunity.

Update: Senator Clinton will do the breakout session after all, at 12 pm.

13 Killed in Hibhib
US-Iraqi Operation in Samarra'

US and Iraq troops are mounting a major operation in the northern Sunni Arab city of Samarra, intending to uproot the "Islamic State of Iraq," which sympathizes with the goals of al-Qaeda. The city has witnessed two major attacks on an crucial Shiite shrine that have contributed to destabilizing the rest of the country, and recently guerrillas assassinated the mayor.

On the spinning of US military deaths in Iraq for the corporate media, the intrepid Brian Whitaker gets it.

Gareth Porter casts doubt on the allegations that the Iranian government planned out the Karbala raid on US troops, showing the process whereby innuendo became established as fact.

Paul Kraig and David Schorr argue that the focus of US policy in Iraq should be to limit the fall-out to the region of having a failed state in Iraq.

McClatchy reports that police found 24 bodies in Baghdad's streets on Thursday. Of Diyala, it reports, "Around 11.30 am, a suicide car bomb targeted a police check point at Hashimiyat area ( 20 km north of Baquba) killing four policemen and injuring three others. Four people were also killed including the head of Hibhib communications department with some members of his family."

Reuters reports on political violence in Iraq on Thursday. Major incidents:

' BAGHDAD - A suicide bomber drove a car bomb into a police station in the northern town of Hibhib as recruits lined up to join the police force, killing 13 people, police said.

BAGHDAD - The Iraqi army killed 11 insurgents and arrested 35 in Iraq in the last 24 hours, the army said in a statement.

KIRKUK - Police found the bodies of five brothers, all day labourers, who had been kidnapped near al-Rashaad district 40 km southwest of Kirkuk a day earlier. A sixth brother, six or seven years old, was found nearby unharmed.

TIKRIT - U.S. soldiers discovered a mass grave on July 31 near the village of Muhbabiya in Diyala province north of Baghdad that contained 17 bodies, including those of women, children and elderly people, the U.S. military said. All were believed to be Sunnis. Villagers blamed al Qaeda militants. . .

JBELA - Three people were killed and two wounded in clashes between a tribe and insurgents in the town of Jbela 65 km (40 miles) south of Baghdad. An Iraqi army patrol responding to the incident was hit by a roadside bomb that wounded two soldiers, police said. . .

BASRA - A roadside bomb killed one U.S. soldier and wounded two others when it targeted their patrol near the southern city of Basra on Wednesday, the U.S. military said. . .'

----
More material on Iran & the Palestinian Authority, at our group blog..

At the Napoleon in Egypt blog, more of that PBS documentary on his life.

Sunni Arab Withdrawal from Al-Maliki Government

The USG Open Source Center analyzes the recent withdrawal of the Sunni Arab Iraqi Accord Front from the al-Maliki government. Reactions of major Iraqi political blocs, especially the Shiites, are translated and quoted.

"Iraq: Government Plays Down Withdrawal; Tawafuq to Be Parliamentary Opposition
Iraq -- OSC Report
Thursday, August 2, 2007

Iraq: Government Plays Down Tawafuq Withdrawal; Tawafuq Focuses on Parliamentary Opposition Role The 1 August decision of the Tawafuq Front -- the Iraqi parliament's largest Sunni Arab bloc -- to carry out its threat to withdraw from Prime Minister Al-Maliki's government prompted officials close to the government to offer assurances that the Sunnis would not be left without adequate representation. At the same time, Tawafuq officials cast the withdrawal as a chance for the Sunni bloc to start a new life as a parliamentary opposition ready to coordinate with other parliamentary groups in order to correct shortcomings in the status quo.

Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih described Tawafuq's withdrawal as "the most dangerous political crisis faced by the government since the issuing of the Constitution" (Al-Sharqiyah TV, 1 August), but other officials representing the government and the leading Shiite coalition played down the significance of the Sunni bloc's decision.

"The (Tawafuq) Front is not the only representative of the Sunni Arabs," said Sami al-Askari, an advisor to the Prime Minister, adding that "there are other entities" -- including some "outside the parliament" -- that could represent the Sunnis better than "some of the entities of Tawafuq" (Sawt al-Iraq, 1 August).

Badr Organization head Hadi al-Amiri explained that "the absence of the brothers from Tawafuq is not the absence of the entire Sunni entity" since "Tawafuq does not represent all the Sunni Arab brothers, just as the Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC) does not represent all the Shiite Arabs" (Buratha News, 1 August).

Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, one of Tawafuq's leaders, remarked caustically that the withdrawal gave Al-Maliki "a chance to run the government without Tawafuq, which he has previously called a cause of the current problems" (Aswat al-Iraq, 1 August). Other Tawafuq figures cast the withdrawal as an opportunity for a long overdue reform of the political process, to be carried out by the political groups in parliament rather than by the government.

Deputy Prime Minister Salam al-Zawba'i -- who is slated to resign as part of Tawafuq's decision -- rejected an interviewer's suggestion that his bloc also leave parliament. "Our withdrawal from the government does not mean that we will give up our responsibility," he declared, calling for cooperation across the various political groups, including the "many prominent leaders in the UIC who truly have a national project" (Al-Jazirah TV, 1 August).

Senior Tawafuq official Rafi' al-Isawi declared that the demands rejected by the government "will stay in force" as "an agenda for reform and building" and promised that Tawafuq "will remain active in the political process in the hope of reforming it and correcting its path" (Al-Melaf, 1 August). Iyad al-Samarra'i, who heads Tawafuq MPs, reported that the bloc was taking advantage of the "good atmosphere" in parliament to conduct "open dialogues" with the remaining blocs (Aswat al-Iraq, 1 August)."

Quote of the Day

"A major power can afford a military debacle only when it looks like a political victory."

- Friedrich Dürrenmatt

April 12, 2007 Destruction of Sarafiya Bridge, Baghdad

My A