Time to Close the US Embassy

I don't try to start an internet campaign very often, because the blogosphere has its own priorities and logic that are democratic and should not be forced. But here is a plea for everyone in the blogging world to help force congress to save our diplomats.

Bush is trying to Shanghai several hundred foreign service officers and force them to go to Iraq. They are protesting.

Now is that time for all Americans to stand up for the diplomats who serve this country ably and courageously throughout the world, for decades on end. Foreign service officers risk disease and death, and many of them see their marriages destroyed when spouses decline to follow them to a series of remote places. They are the ones who represent America abroad, who know languages and cultures and do their best to convince the world that we're basically a good people.

The Jesse Helms Right always hated the State Department, because it is about compromise and finding peaceful solutions, whereas the US Right is about war, violence and imposing its will on people. But is is the State Department that, despite some lapses over the decades, generally embodies the best of what America is abroad.

The guerrillas in Iraq constantly target the Green Zone and US diplomatic personnel there with mortar and rocket fire. State Department personnel sleep in trailers that are completely unprotected from such incoming fire. At several points in the past year, they have been forbidden to go outside without protective gear (as if outside were more dangerous). The Bush administration has consistently lied about the danger they are in and tried to cover up these severe security precautions.

The US embassy in Iraq should be closed. It is not safe for the personnel there. Some sort of rump mission of hardy volunteers could be maintained. But kidnapping our most capable diplomats and putting them in front of a fire squad is morally wrong and is administratively stupid, since many of these intrepid individuals will simply resign. (You cannot easily get good life insurance that covers death from war, and most State spouses cannot have careers because of the two-year rotations to various foreign capitals, and their families are in danger of being reduced to dire poverty if they are killed).

There is, in addition to the daily danger, no good escape route for civilian personnel from Baghdad. The troop escalation will be reversed by next year this time, and as the US draws down, the Green Zone is in danger of being overwhelmed by the Mahdi Army. The State Department employees sent there for two year missions are the ones who may end up in secret JAM prisons, as happened in Tehran in 1979.

Bush should not be allowed by Congress to commit this immoral act against the civilians who serve us so faithfully.

Please write your congressional representatives and senators and demand that the US embassy be closed and the forced deportation of US diplomats to Iraq be halted.

The Democrats have been facing the dilemma that they are blocked from doing much about Iraq. This is something they can do. Cut off funding for the embassy and force most of the diplomats home. This is the way to start ending the war.

Now.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Anti-Gay Church Fined by Court Can Robertson be far Behind?

A jury has found an independent "Baptist" church (which doesn't actually appear to have anything to do with the Baptist Church) in Topeka, KS, guilty of inflicting emotional distress on the bereaved family of a Marine killed in Iraq. The "church" (i.e. cult) members had protested at the funeral of Marine Lance Cpl. Matthew Snyder against the US military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy on gays. There is no reason to think Snyder was gay, but the "Church members said the soldier's death was God's punishment of America for tolerating homosexuality" . . . according to Reuters.

This is the time to remind everyone that after September 11, the late Rev. Jerry Falwell, who inflicted the inaccurately labeled and proto-fascist 'moral majority' on the rest of us, said that God had 'allowed' 9/11 because the US tolerated gays and feminists. And Pat Robertson, the host of the 700 Club on which the remarks were made, agreed entirely and even issued a subsequent statement to the same effect.

Here is the text:

'FALWELL: What we saw on Tuesday, as terrible as it is, could be miniscule if, in fact--if, in fact--God continues to lift the curtain and allow the enemies of America to give us probably what we deserve.

ROBERTSON: Jerry, that's my feeling. I think we've just seen the antechamber to terror. We haven't even begun to see what they can do to the major population.

FALWELL: The ACLU's got to take a lot of blame for this.

ROBERTSON: Well, yes.

FALWELL: And, I know that I'll hear from them for this. But, throwing God out successfully with the help of the federal court system, throwing God out of the public square, out of the schools. The abortionists have got to bear some burden for this because God will not be mocked. And when we destroy 40 million little innocent babies, we make God mad. I really believe that the pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays and the lesbians who are actively trying to make that an alternative lifestyle, the ACLU, People For the American Way--all of them who have tried to secularize America--I point the finger in their face and say "you helped this happen."

ROBERTSON: Well, I totally concur, and the problem is we have adopted that agenda at the highest levels of our government. And so we're responsible as a free society for what the top people do. And, the top people, of course, is the court system.

In a subsequent news release, Robertson stated:

We have allowed rampant pornography on the Internet, and rampant secularism and the occult, etc. to be broadcast on television. We have permitted somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-40 million unborn babies to be slaughtered by our society.

We have a court that has essentially stuck its finger in God's eye and said, "We are going to legislate You out of the schools and take Your commandments from the courthouses in various states. We are not going to let little children read the commandments of God. We are not going to allow the Bible or prayer in our schools."

We have insulted God at the highest level of our government. Then, we say, "Why does this happen?" It is happening because God Almighty is lifting His protection from us. Once that protection is gone, we are vulnerable because we are a free society.

Don't ask why did it happen. It happened because people are evil. It also happened because God is lifting His protection from this nation and we must pray and ask Him for revival so that once again we will be His people, the planting of His righteousness, so that He will come to our defense and protect us as a nation." '

Falwell later issued a faux apology of the 'I'm sorry you're fat' variety; Robertson's organization tried to weasel out of responsibility by claiming he hadn't understood Falwell, which is impossible given the texts above).

So, I say that Falwell's and Robertson's organizations owe the rest of us Americans $10 million each for emotional distress.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Letters to the Editor

In my absence, my readers are making what seem to me especially substantial, informed and incisive comments, and several of those posted today seemed to me worthy of being put on the "front page". (Not everyone reads comments). So here they are:

"1. On the Dam

At 11:21 PM, Alex said...

On the dam. There was a report made in 1951 by British engineers proposing various sites for dams on the Tigris and the Euphrates. It is fairly widely available in academic libraries, though not on the internet. When the dams were built under Saddam in the 1980s, other sites were chosen. Although I do not remember what was said about the Mosul dam, the site of the Haditha dam was definitely advised against. So I suppose that is another dam in danger.

However, there is a factor that may not have been taken into account by the US engineers in preparing their assessment of danger, and that is the rate of alluviation. The waters of both the Tigris and the Euphrates carry large amounts of alluvium, washed off the Turkish mountains, and which settles on the bottom when the water is stopped by a dam. At Samarra, the dam was finished in 1954. When I first went to Samarra in 1977, there was an open lake behind the dam. Now there is only dry land and a river channel. The Mosul dam has been in use for half that time. I suspect there is much less water behind the dam than supposed, and thus less danger, but we have not seen the detailed report.

I am only speculating here. There are other factors; the alluvium might be trapped by the Turkish dams upstream, and they will have have the problem in the future. Though it might be a reason the Iraqi engineers are less worried than the US. It depends on how you make the calculations.

Nevertheless, this is a problem typical of an occupation that declares itself not an occupation. The Iraqi government is effectively prevented from acting, and then the occupiers say "not us", fault of the Iraqi government.


2. Basra (Anon.)

Re Basra, oil, and impending intra-shiite war

Without control of the oil exports and ports of entry, Maliki is just Mayor of the Green Zone, with Odierno his sherif.

The Kurdish militias sit astride the N. piplines, waiting the propitious time to take Kirkuk and hoping to straighten their zone of control SW to the Tigris river, absorbing the Northern production area and Kurdish areas from Ninevah to Diyala.

The Sunni tribes and Marines control the upper Euphrates river and road to Amman, all the way back to Baghdad city limits. No Dawa need apply out West. Iraq's southern oil capitol and only port is contested by opposition Shiite parties and miitias. The 'fired' governor of Basra is still holding the governate, months after Maliki threatened to move in with the 'Iraqi' army. The Basra chief of police is unable to command his troops reliably. Tens of millions in oil revenue is flowing to whoever chas teh guns to put deals for $90 bbl crude delivery together.

Baghdad is essentially under lock-down, the war zoned into neighborhoods and barrios, for the time being. Electricity, food and fuel are being rationed, traded and used for collective reward or punishment by this or that faction.

The great Petraeus' counter-offensive has paused for a breath, with the collateral risks of bombardment being substituted for the military casualties associated with surface patrols. Seems sort of opposite of the COIN doctrine of taking risks to protect civilians.

It sure is good to hear that the US finally has a winning strategy to get Pres. Clinton out of Iraq by 2013. Maybe.

"Peace, peace, but there is no peace."



3. Ineptitude of the al-Maliki government

You say:” Now if only the al-Maliki government could assert itself in, and provide services for, Iraq itself.” No chance! In fact things are going to get even worse (now the sword of the September US report is gone.)

In today's Sotaliraq.com there are reports on two statements of interest:

1) A letter from the new . . . head of the anti-corruption office [appointed by Malik in clear violation of the constitution], addressed to the leaders of the US Congress. I very much hope will be published in English, at least for its entertainment value [now in Arabic at:]

http://www.sotaliraq.com/iraqnews.php?id=276

The guy is complaining about being treated like dirt by the US Embassy who do not even give him a security badge to allow him into his office (good for them) and defending the scum he is supposed to be watching over. Maliki's letter prohibiting the investigation of the top thieves in Iraq, including his own cousin as the ex-minister, which is undisputed except by Ms Rice and is in the public domain is ignored. He says allegations against Maliki are for the parliament only! He then holds the contradiction that there is corruption, but the officials are not corrupt. But he justifies it saying it is all America's fault. Then he attacks about the ex-head muttering some hilarious stuff about Pinochet and other South American dictators. Now, Maliki first said that the ex-head “may be tampered with some papers” then upped it by accusing him of assassinations no less.

2) The new Agriculture Minister. He is described as a technocrat, but in fact an ex-minister in Ja'fari's ruinous sectarian government. He proudly declares [in Arabic at:]

http://www.sotaliraq.com/iraqnews.php?id=258

that he aims for full self-sufficiency in all crops! A very stupid idea copied from Iran which is hurting their land; farmers; and economy.

We also have the news that the two new ministers were approved unanimously, yet opposed by the big Sadrists and Sunni blocs! Has anyone heard of a parliamentary vote where the voting result is in dispute? Apart from in Iraq that is.

Maliki seems to have come to the conclusion that he and the sectarian parties in general, have no long -term future in Iraq. So they better concentrate on the looting, for as long as they are allowed to maintain the current term.


4. Lack of State Department competence to grant immunity to Blackwater

At 6:41 PM, exomikey said...

"Sen. Pat Leahy is slamming the Bush administration for bestowing immunity on private US security guards in Iraq."

When did the State Department get the power to grant immunity to anyone? I'm not sure that they can grant immunity. I'll take Artios' position on this until someone who knows chimes in:

Atrios [says]

"Muddle
So I just learned on CNN that the State Department offered immunity to the Blackwater guards. That they don't have the power to do it. That they did it anyway. That senior State people didn't sign off on this thing they didn't have the power to do. This thing they didn't have the power to do will inhibit any efforts to prosecute them.

I hope someone at the State Department offers to give me Martha's Vineyard! They may not have the power to do it, but once they do any efforts to take it away from me will be inhibited!

-Atrios 09:02"

Comment s (259) Trackback (0)

5. Rules of Engagement:

At 6:43 PM, Anonymous said...

The unanswered question, from the apparently one-sided Blackwater shootout last month that killed and wounded dozens, from the Haditha killing of more than a dozen women and children in their homes, is what are the rules we operate under?

The mutable rules of engagement (ROE) are classified, but the bottom line can be inferred from the comments used to justify a bad shoot. Blackwater says that it's guards felt threatened while driving the wrong way in a traffic circle, and responded to a perceived threat by clearing civilians and cars from the huge square, using automatic weapons fire and explosive rounds.

The Haditha defendants also stated the Marines felt threatened in the aftermath of a fatal IED attack, and so they attacked to eliminate the threat. No fighters or weapons were captured, no expended AK shells were found in the houses where civilians died, but the military court accepted the marines testimony. "I felt threatened' was sufficient defense for the shooting of unarmed prisoners, use of grenades and rifles on civilians trapped in their bedrooms.

This war is in a conquered country where most Sunni Arabs, and half the Shiites say they feel that attacks on the occupier (us) are justified. The perception of fear on the part of our 165,000 soldiers and 30,000 mercenaries makes nearly all killing on the part of our men justifiable.

ROE concerns can usually be resolved with a word about a feeling. Mr. Koch is correct in that.

I would ask our red-state war supporters to consider how the 1860 War of Northern Aggression story would have ended, if the occupation troops had spoken another language, and been armed with rapid-fire weapons?

It's going to be a very long war for some of our returning men and their families. They are our soldiers, in our service. Most have done the best they could for comrades, country, and contract. War changes men. This war will follow some home, and many of us will taste from that same tree of knowledge.

Things will get better for our guys, as Iraqis take over mine-clearing, search, siezure, and interrogation. Our combat role will increasingly shift to air attack and artillery fire against enemy buildings. Our casualties will fall to politically acceptable levels. Rules for indirect fire called in by US advisors will be classified, a matter for Iraqis to witness and justify.

Gen. Sherman pointed out, as his men left Atlanta for Charleston, that war is not nice, however noble the justifications. "

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Gives Turkey Intel on Kurds Militia Rule in Basra

The US is giving Turkey intelligence on the Kurdish Workers Party, according to Reuters. It seems to me that there is a contradiction between US calls for Turkish restraint and this attempt to supply Ankara with "actionable" intelligence. Is it that the US wants Turkey to hit some parts of the PKK in some parts of Iraq? Or is it just an attempt to make the Turks happy while not doing anything that the Kurdistan Regional Authority in Iraq could object to?

Meanwhile, the Turkish military says it killed 15 PKK fighters near the Iraqi border.

Basra's police chief, Maj. Gen Jalil Khalaf, has admitted that Basra and the nearby port of Umm Qasr are basically under militia rule and that his policemen either cannot fight them or have been actively infiltrated by them. Gasoline and kerosene smuggling are worth billions in that area.

Nevertheless, PM Nuri al-Maliki is insisting that his forces are in a position to take over the security command in Basra. Al-Maliki seems to define such readiness as willingness to take on the "terrorists" by which he means the tiny number of Sunni covert operatives in the deep south. He doesn't count the Shiite militias in that category.

The Iraqi government is dismissing warnings of the US Army Corps of Engineers that a major dam north of Mosul is structurally unsound and could collapse, with apocalyptic consequences for Iraq. This pie in the sky attitude about all the problems facing Iraq seems infectious. Maybe the Iraqi government caught it from Karl Rove, the Republican spinmeister who has convinced over a quarter of Americans that Bush is doing 'a good job' in Iraq! I have a sinking feeling that Mosul and Baghdad face their own Katrina (actually much, much worse) down the line, if the Iraqi officials are this unconcerned.

Oil production in Iraq is down from this quarter a year ago, but the capacity of the country's production facilities has risen. The northern fields and pipelines are better guarded now.

An interview with Dahr Jamail on what the US military occupation looks like on the ground to ordinary Iraqis.

Ali Eterazi on Islamic reform and 'post-Islamism'.

Michael Schwartz at Tomdispatch.com on the place of oil among US motivations for its invasion and occupation of Iraq.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Cabinet Proposes lifting Immunity for Private Security Guards

The Iraqi cabinet has reported out draft legislation that will remove immunity from prosecution for private security guards such as those of Blackwater. The immunity was put into law by US viceroy Paul Bremer in 2003-2004 when the US was running Iraq as a colony. Such 'extra-territoriality' is common in a colonial situation, since it would be unseemly for 'natives' to sit in judgment of citizens of the metropole. Typically the first thing modern nationalist regimes like Egypt did when they moved toward independence of colonial powers such as Britain was to abolish extraterritoriality, i.e. laws shielding foreign residents from prosecution inn local courts. Extraterritoriality for US troops in Iran in the 1960s was one of Khomeini's complaints against the Shah. The Iraqi cabinet move is a step toward renewed independence and self-assertion for the Iraqi government vis-a-vis the United States. Now if only the al-Malik government could assert itself in, and provide services for, Iraq itself.

Sen. Pat Leahy is slamming the Bush administration for bestowing immunity on private US security guards in Iraq. Since Iraq's new law will not affect past infractions, the US courts are the only arena where murders might have been punished. Not likely.

Mark Kukis of Time in Baghdad asks if the recent horrific violence in Baquba (see below) is a signpost for the future. The US troop escalation can't last forever, and by this time next year there will be at most 130,000 US troops in Iraq. As the extra units are drawn down, will the violence start up again? Likely, yes.

Iran is denying that it has any role in killing US troops in Iraq. Since the Iranian regime has not been shy in claiming credit for, e.g., Hizbullah attacks on Israel, it is significant that it is going out of its way to deny the US allegations.

The Turkish military is still squeezing PKK guerrillas and trying to close off their escape routes in eastern Anatolia near the Iraq border.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq's Katrina? 3 US Soldiers Killed in Bombing Diyala Roiled by 28 Police Killed, 20 Headless Bodies

Iraq's Katrina? The Army Corps of Engineers is worried that a dam north of Mosul will collapse. CBS warns, ' A catastrophic failure, engineers believe, could unleash a 60-foot-high wall of water that would be inundate Mosul - and flood Baghdad to a depth of 15 feet. The casualty count would be in the hundreds of thousands. ' If this happened on the Bush administration's watch, it would certainly be blamed on the United States, and even the lack of dam upkeep can be traced in some part to the UN/ US sanctions on Iraq of the 1990s, which debilitated its infrastructure. An article in the Scientific American in 1999 warned that a Katrina could happen to New Orleans. Now we have the ACE warning of this dam/ flood catastrophe. I have a sinking feeling that George W. Bush is incapable of taking such threats to civilian lives seriously. Imagine if the great United States, having occupied a major Muslim Arab country in the world's driest region, managed to drown two of the most revered cities in Islamic history.

Reuters reports that:

' NEAR BAGHDAD - Three U.S. soldiers killed by roadside bomb southeast of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

BAGHDAD - Four policemen were killed and eight others wounded when a car bomb exploded near their patrol in Samarra, 100 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. '

There are concerns among truck drivers and the business community about the possible closing of the Turkish-Kurdish border, according to VOA.

The kidnapped tribal sheikhs of Diyala were rescued by the US military, which is apparently fingering a Special Groups rogue guerrilla who split from the Mahdi Army, Arkan Hasnawi. Some proportion of the JAM commanders rejected Muqtada al-Sadr's cease-fire with the US. A Sadrist spokesman denied Hasnawi had ever been in the Jaysh al-Mahdi (Mahdi Army or JAM).

Diyala was also hit on Monday by a massive bombing of police recruits that killed 28 and wounded 20, and by the discovery of twenty decapitated bodies near the provincial capital of Baquba.

Although over-all deaths are down in Iraq this fall according to the Iraqi ministry of health (which however has not been reliable in its past estimates and which has been caught not releasing bad numbers when the real ones were leaked to journalists), there is still a lot of debilitating violence (including waves of largely unreported assassinations, as in Basra) in the country that interferes with trade, employment and getting the country back on its feet.

Reuters reports civil war violence for Tuesday. Major incidents beyond the US troops killed and the bombing of police in Samarra:

' BAGHDAD - U.S. forces killed four suspected militants and detained 17 in operations on Monday and Tuesday . . .

BAGHDAD - A militant killed one street cleaner and wounded six others when he threw a hand grenade at their vehicle in eastern Baghdad's Zayouna neighborhood, police said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb in a minibus killed one person and wounded four others in the central Baghdad Alawi bus terminal, police said.

BAGHDAD - Two policemen were wounded when a mortar round landed in the Mansour district of western Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb inside a minibus wounded two people on a highway in eastern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Four bodies were found in different districts of Baghdad on Monday, police said.

BAQUBA - Police confirmed Iraqi academic Jamal Mustafa was taken from his house on Sunday in Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad. It was not immediately clear who was responsible for the abduction.

MOSUL - Police said they found four bodies in the northern city of Mosul. . .

KIRKUK - Three nightguards were wounded, some seriously, in a drive-by shooting about 35 km (22 miles) southwest of Kirkuk, police said. . .

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Breaking News: Turkish Gunships fire into Iraq

Indian NDTV is reporting Tuesday morning that Turkish Cobra helicopter gunships have fired into Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) positions inside northern Iraq. The action comes after following on an engagement in the border region on the Turkish side that began on Monday and went late into the night. AP does not mention the strikes inside Iraq, but NDTV apparently has a reporter in the area. If the Indian account is true, it is a step up in the building Turkish-Kurdish confrontation.

Turkey is also squeezing Iraqi Kurdistan economically, putting embargoes on firms connected to Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani.

In an interview this weekend, Barzani had threatened that any Turkish incursion would "mean war."

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Reconciliation Sheikhs Kidnapped; Kirkuk, Karbala Bombings

LA Times says that 11 members of The Salam (Peace) tribal council of Baquba, were kidnapped at gunpoint as they were driving back from the Green Zone toward Baquba, where they are based. They had been conducting talks with the office of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Although the kidnapping occurred in a largely Shiite district of the capital, it cannot be assumed that the Shiites are the problem.

There were also big bombings in the northern oil city of Kirkuk (8 dead, 25 wounded) and in the southern Shiite shrine city of Karbala. About Kirkuk, LAT says:

' A suicide car bomber killed seven people and wounded 25 in the disputed northern city of Kirkuk on Sunday, targeting a crowded bus terminal heavily used by travelers to the provinces that form the semiautonomous Kurdistan region, police and witnesses said. Ten shops and 15 cars were set ablaze by the afternoon explosion. "It was a suicide car; the driver detonated himself in front of a civilian crowd next to the bus terminal," said witness Rebowar Mohammad, 32. "I was close to the explosion. There was thick, dark smoke covering the place."

As for Karbala, the bombing, which left 6 dead, came in the wake of the announcement that US troops are withdrawing from the province, which is a big pilgrimage center. The withdrawal will allow the Shiite factions that have been fighting there to more openly contest control of it, and the bombing is probably an opening salvo. The martyred grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, Husain, is interred in a shrine in Karbala.

The NYT says that Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq are thumbing their noses at Turkey. About the US dilemma in northern Iraq, where it is caught between its Kurdish and Turkish allies, Sabrina Tavernisse wickedly quotes a local Kurd: "The United States “is like a man with two wives,” said one Iraqi Kurd in Sulaimaniya. “They quarrel, but he doesn’t want to lose either of them.”

For just how rugged the territory is in which the PKK is hiding out, see Gordon Taylor at Progressive Historians.

The British officer corps says of the remaining UK presence in Basra, "Get us out of here!" and admits that in recent months the foreign troops may have been doing more harm than good.

McClatchy reports of Basra on Sunday:

' Basra

Yesterday night, Gunmen attacked a convoy of the Islamic Party killing one member in the party and injured 3 others. The attackers kidnapped 2 others from the convoy which was coming from Zubeer twon southwest Basra city towards Basra.

Gunmen killed one prominent member of the Supreme Election Committee in Basra (Ausama Al Abadi) downtown Basra yesterday night.

Around 12.00: the FBS of South Oil Co. in Basra open fire against the demonstrators who gathered in front of building of the company to demand of providing them with jobs in this company. 6 of demonstrators were injured in the incident. '

The Telegraph article talks of death squad rule in the city.

Tom Engelhardt reflects on Saturday's anti-war demonstrations in the US.

Francois Furstenberg on Bush as a Jacobin. It is a point I've made, too, in connection with my book on Napoleon's Egypt.

In its 10/28/07 roundup of Iraq news items, the USG Open Source Center gives several items from the hard line Sunni Fundamentalist newspaper al-Basa'ir, which is close to the Association of Muslim Scholars. AMS leaders have denounced the Iraqi Salafis who have begun styling themselves 'al-Qaeda' and who often engage in indiscriminate violence, but AMS is uncompromisingly Sunni fundamentalist itself, and has some sort of connection to the 1920 Revolution Brigades, which the US views as an insurgent group.

'Al-Basa'ir on 24 October publishes on the front page a 600-word report on Statements 485 and 486 the Association of Muslim Scholars issued accusing the Shiite militias of displacing Sunni families in Baghdad and other governorates.

Al-Basa'ir on 24 October publishes on the front page a 300-word report on Statement 488 the Association of Muslim Scholars issued accusing the occupation forces of committing a massacre against the innocent Iraqi people in the Al-Sadr City. The statement also accuses the Iraqi Government of supporting the crimes committed by the occupation forces.

Al-Basa'ir on 24 October publishes on the front page and on page 2 a 1,200-word report on Statement 487 the Association of Muslim Scholars issued accusing the Shiite Militias of blowing up the Al-Barakah Mosque in the Al-Washash District in Baghdad.

Al-Basa'ir on 24 October publishes on the front page a 130-word report on the news statement the Association of Muslim Scholars issued condemning the kidnapping of priests in Mosul on 13 October.

Al-Basa'ir on 24 October publishes on the front page and on page 2 a 600-word report on the meeting of Abd-al-Salam al-Kubaysi, Association of Muslim Scholars undersecretary, with the association's employees and members in the Umm al-Qura Mosque in Baghdad on 21 October. Al-Kubaysi affirmed that the association will not give up on its anti-occupation policies. . .

Al-Basa'ir on 24 October publishes on the front page a 600-word editorial saying that the Iraqi political forces, which are protected and backed by the occupation forces, have failed to implement their project to partition Iraq under the pretext of federalism. The writer says that the only way for the occupation forces to resolve the challenges they are facing in northern, central and southern Iraq is to withdraw and annul the political process. . .

Al-Basa'ir on 24 October publishes on page 5 a 300-word report on the Statements 481, 482, 483 and 484 issued by the Association of Muslim Scholars. The statements condemn the oil contracts signed by the Kurdish Government, Turkish threats to invade Kurdistan, the killing of 15 civilians in the Al-Tharthar District and the arrest of Association Member Yunus al-Akidi, in the Abu-Ghurayb District.'

(I am traveling abroad this week and postings may be irregular. Can't put anything up Tuesday morning, e.g., but maybe later that day. Check back frequently.)
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Muqtada al-Sadr Says Freeze on Al-Mahdi Army's Military Action Still in Effect

The USG Open Source Center summarizes and translates a recent statement of Shiite clerical leader Muqtada al-Sadr, issued two weeks ago, insisting that the suspension of military operations by his Mahdi Army is still in effect.

'Muqtada al-Sadr Says Freeze on Al-Mahdi Army's Military Action Still in Effect
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Sunday, October 28, 2007

The Mujahidin Al-Amarah News Network (formerly visible at (http:// al3marh. net/ news/%20 but now gone blank). . . -- which reports on Al-Sadr trend's activities and statements and other events in Iraq, was observed to post the following statement on 23 October:

The following is the full text of the report:

Office of the Martyr Al-Sadr (May God sanctify his secret)

Your Eminence Hojjat ol-Islam val Muslimin Al-Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr (may you live in glory), can you please answer our questions and queries. May God reward you.

1. Is the decision to freeze the Army of Imam al-Mahdi (may God speed up his return) still in effect because some parties are circulating news that the freeze stopped after Id al-Fitr?

In the name of God Almighty: Yes, it is still in effect and it can be extended if we deem this to serve an interest. It is absolutely not true that it has been lifted. In fact, some hostile parties are spreading this news to tarnish the reputation of this heroic ideological army, which proved its obedience to its leaders by implementing the freeze in the best manner possible except by some of those who took it upon themselves to obey the enemies and who ignored the freeze order by their hawzah (religious seminary). We appeal to all to implement this decision on all levels. Otherwise, a disobedient person would be dismissed from this heroic ideological army. The army has no place in it for disobedient persons. Our lord and master, Imam Al-Mahdi (may God speed up his return) wants obedience and faith, and not disobedience and rebellion.

2. If the freeze did not stop, we would like to inquire about some actions, which some units of the Army of Imam Al-Mahdi have continued to carry on, including some financial, tribal, and social affairs and others.

In the name of God Almighty. This question can be answered on two levels:

First, this freeze includes the "military" aspect in particular and some aspects, which I will mention implicitly, God willing. It does not include the ideological and cultural aspects. As we know, jihad is two parts: cultural and military. We are facing a (Jewish-American) attack on our beloved Islam. Therefore, dear brothers, you should make yourselves immune to these attacks so as to make Islam immune as well. This cannot be done by attack, disunity, disintegration, disobedience, rebellion, unilateral action, differences, and other similar negative phenomena that have spread among you. It is done by piety, rectitude, purity, ethics, faith, modesty, fraternity, and worship, and not by seeking mundane pleasures, polytheism, and parties.

Second, concerning what was mentioned in the question about the financial, tribal, and social aspects, if any individual wants to intervene in these things, he cannot do that by using his affiliation to the Army of Imam Al-Mahdi. Otherwise, he will be disobeying higher orders.

3. In the current period, in which the Army of Imam Al-Mahdi has been frozen, what are the responsibilities that they can carry out?

In the name of God Almighty. The dear brothers in the Army of Imam Al-Mahdi have the full powers to go about their social affairs, such as making visits, forming friendships, helping the needy, and attending to the needs of the believers in a manner that does not conflict with the tolerant Islamic shari'ah and that does not break the freeze. They may also seek to educate themselves religiously, ideologically, scientifically, and ethically by conducting lessons, lectures, seminars, and examinations under the supervision of the cultural commission that is affiliated with the Office of the Martyr. They may also carry out any peaceful action that reflects their love of their religion and homeland and their endeavor to achieve its unity, land and people.

I also advise you to refrain from any action that could hurt the reputation of this beloved army. Its reputation is a trust that you bear. Do not fear the blame of anyone while implementing the above. God is able to grant you victory. Be like a solid structure, while each one of you offers advice to the other and loves the other so that the enemy will not be able to infiltrate you. Beware of those who stir up sedition and the infiltrators among your ranks. I advise you and myself to fear God in secret and in public and to carry out religious duties and abandon what is forbidden and to conduct religious rituals, such as congregational prayer, the husayniyah sessions, and many others.

Holy Al-Najaf

Muqtada al-Sadr

5 Shawwal 1428 (corresponding to 16 October 2007)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Major US Anti-War Protests Karbala turned over to Iranian-backed Badr

Tens of thousands of Americans rallied against the war in major cities on Saturday.

The US military is turning over security duties in Karbala to the Iraqi security forces (dominated in that city by the Badr Corps, the paramilitary trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps). This turn-over has now been carried out in 8 of Iraq's 18 provinces. There never was much of a US military presence in the 3 Kurdish provinces of the Kurdistan Regional Authority, so actually it is just 5 that have effectively been turned over-- the Shiite provinces of Muthanna, Dhi Qar, Najaf, and Maysan-- and now Karbala.

A departing US general has accused the Shiite-dominated ministry of the interior of dragging its feet on hiring Sunni Arab policemen. Sectarian concerns, he implied, are interfering with the establishment of security in Iraq.

Undiagnosed brain injuries among soldiers and civilians are a major legacy of the Iraq War.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkish, Iranian Presidents Condemn Kurds

AFP reports that Prime Minister Rejep Tayyib Erdogan of Turkey said Saturday, of the Kurdish Workers Party guerrillas holed up in Iraq, "We will launch an operation when it will be necessary, without asking for anybody’s opinion . . .”

The USG Open Source Center translates an article about Turkish President Abdullah Gul calling Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about Turkey's plans to end the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) presence in the region. Iran's president expressed sympathy for the terrorism Turkey suffered at Kurdish hands and stressed that Iran had faced similar terrorism. (The implication is that the United States was 'running' Kurdish terrorists and the Mojahedin-e Khalq against Iraq's neighbors).

George W. Bush's special greatness is that his coddling of Kurdish separatism and terrorism has brought together the Sunni Turks and the Shiite Iranians, traditional enemies. Yes, these are the birth pangs of the New Middle East.

'Turkey's Gul Tells Ahmedinejad 'Channels of Diplomacy' on PKK 'Being Exhausted'
"President Gul Held a Phone Conversation With Ahmedinejad" -- AA headline
Anatolia
Saturday, October 27, 2007

Ankara (AA) - 27.10.2007 - It was reported that Iranian President Ahmedinejad called President Gul on the phone and received information on the latest developments on Turkey's fight against terrorism. According to reports, Gul told Ahmedinejad that Turkey attaches great importance to Iraq's territorial integrity and that all the Iraqi people with the Shi'a, Sunni, Arab, and Kurd are the kin of Turks. Gul also stressed that Turkey does not target the Iraq administration and the Kurds.

It was also reported that President Gul emphasized Turkey's determination in ending the PKK presence in the region after pointing out that the terrorist organization is using northern Iraq as a base and that the channels of diplomacy are being exhausted.

Ahmedinejad, in turn, was reported to have said during the conversation that Turkey's concerns are received with understanding, that Iran is also fighting terror, and that Iran is closely watching the developments with concern. Ahmedinejad also extended his condolences to the families of the martyrs.

(Description of Source: Ankara Anatolia in Turkish -- Semi-official news agency; independent in content) '
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqi Sunni, Shiite Preachers Denounce al-Qaeda

The USG Open Source Center reports on Iraqi sermons on Friday.

Round-up of Iraqi Friday Sermons 26 Oct
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, October 27, 2007

Al-Iraqiyah . . . "Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir, [Shiite] imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, said that the recent statements by terrorist Usama Bin Ladin to the remnants of his followers in Iraq show the defeat of the terrorist organization in Iraq following the strong blows dealt to it by the Iraqi security forces, backed by the tribes."

The report adds: "In a Friday sermon, the Buratha Mosque preacher called for renouncing violence and all armed manifestations and bolstering unity among Iraqis."

Shaykh Al-Saghir says: "Bolstering unity between the Shiites and Sunnis is the only way to eliminate those criminals. This would not have happened had the Shiites and Sunnis not rejected all the terrorists' attempts to drive a wedge between the two honorable sects."

Shaykh Al-Saghir adds: "We consider Usama Bin Ladin's recent statement as an official announcement on the defeat of the Al-Qa'ida in Iraq. Therefore, before this statement and message, we were not astonished to see Harith al-Dari trying to bring some life to the dead body of Al-Qa'ida when he spoke and advised the armed groups to accept Al-Qa'ida by saying they are from us and we are from them."

Al-Saghir says: "The militias of any party are against the existence of the state."

The report adds [that Sunni]: "Shaykh Ahmad Abd-al-Ghafur al-Samarra'i, head of the Sunni Waqf Bureau, has called for renouncing all armed manifestations and differences among the sons of the one country. In a Friday sermon at the Al-Siddiq Mosque in Al-Ghazaliyah, Shaykh Al-Samarra'i urged the Iraqis to close their ranks to foil enemy plans to foment sedition among them."

Al-Samarra'i says: "I express my appreciation for all the good efforts and for all those who achieved security and stability, and brotherhood and amity among the sons of Iraq. Unity, amity, mercy, and love bring us closer to God. The Sunni must live safely in a Shiite area and a Shiite must live safely in the Sunni areas."

Al-Samarra'i says: "They wanted to foment sedition between the Shiites and Sunnis and to play on the tune of sectarianism. However, praise be to God, all the sons of Iraq in general, and the sons of Al-Ghazaliyah in particular, and specifically the sons of this mosque, have exposed the game, realized the conspiracy, and got united with each other. They did not discriminate between a Shiite and Sunni, an Arab or Kurd, or a Muslim and a non-Muslim. People from all ethnic groups were united and stood as one man in the face of anyone who wanted to harm this country or this area."

The report says: "Within the same framework, Shaykh Ala Abd-al-Wahhab, imam and preacher of the Yusuf al-Hassan Mosque in the Basra Governorate, urged the Iraqis to unite and renounce all forms of estrangement and sectarianism and to close the ranks among the sons of the one people. Shaykh Abd-al-Wahhab noted that the crisis the Iraqis are experiencing necessitates more patience."

Al-Furat [Supreme Council, Shiite]: . . . "Friday preachers in Baghdad urged the Council of Representatives to discuss the effective forces' request to prevent any political interference by the Independent Higher Election Committee."

The report adds: "The crisis on the Iraqi-Turkish border and the government's efforts to find solutions to it was present in the Friday sermons. The preachers stressed the need for not turning Iraq into arena to settle scores and a springboard for terrorist organizations to attack the neighboring states."

Shaykh al-Saghir says: "I call on the Council of Representatives, specifically the chairmanship of the Council of Representatives, to examine the request that was submitted by heads of the three major blocs in the parliament and to hold an urgent meeting for the committee, the political blocs, and the United Nations, to put things in order in a way to guarantee the independence, neutrality, and transparency of the committee."

On Bin Ladin's recent audiotape, Al-Saghir says: "We consider Usama Bin Ladin's recent statement as an official announcement on the defeat of the Al-Qa'ida in Iraq. Therefore, before this statement and message, we were not astonished to see Harith al-Dari trying to bring some life to the dead body of Al-Qa'ida when he spoke and advised the armed groups to accept Al-Qa'ida by saying they are from us and we are from them."

Commenting on the crisis on the Iraqi-Turkish border, Na'il al-Musawi, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "Now there is the issue of stopping its (PKK) activity. The problem is that the (Turks) want us to hand over some of the wanted PKK elements. Now, there is the issue of stopping its political and military activities and closing its offices. We are not an arena of struggle. Iraq is not an arena of struggle. Iraqi Kurdistan is a part of Iraq."

The channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program at 1809 GMT, as follows:

Shaykh Al-Saghir speaks about "mistakes in the Election Committee Law, which should be corrected." He adds: "Very regrettably, I was given promises to correct these mistakes, but these promises are so far not reassuring and are not encouraging. I say that the parties' tampering with the committee will destroy this committee and end any hope for its neutrality. Consequently, I say that October is about to end and we will then have a new budget, but we will not approve one penny for the committee if measures to reassure us that this committee enjoys neutrality and transparency are not taken."

He adds: "Therefore, all the political parties, taking into consideration that the problem lies in the political parties, should be seriously aware of these issues. Any tampering with the issue of the independence of the committee will disrupt the entire situation."

He says: "I call on the Council of Representatives, specifically the chairmanship of the Council of Representatives, to examine the request that was submitted by heads of the three major blocs in the parliament and to hold an urgent meeting for the committee, the political blocs, and the United Nations, to put things in order in a way to guarantee the independence, neutrality, and transparency of the committee. Without this, we will have another stand, which definitely will not be in the interest of the current committee. I know that there are sincere intentions, but I also know that there are political trends within this committee."

Shaykh Na'il al-Musawi, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "Praise be to God, the tension that used to exist among the political blocs in the past has eased a great deal. Some sides used to wager on toppling the government and to think that it was possible to do so and if this government falls they will assume power. Now, the situation is different. The situation is now better and anyone who monitors events will see that the security situation is better than before."

He adds: "We hope that all Iraqis, all sects, all religions, and trends will work against terrorism, taking into consideration that terrorism does not discriminate between a Sunni or a Shiite, Christian or Muslim, or Sabian or Azidi. Terrorism targets all Iraqis."

[Shiite] Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i, imam and preacher of the Karbala Friday sermon, says: "I want to discuss the unstable security situation in some of the cities of the south and the center of our beloved country, Iraq. I say that some citizens in these cities have asked us to convey their complaints and suffering through the Friday pulpit to the brother officials, whether in the executive or legislative agencies. Some members of the Iraqi Council of Representatives have also asked us to convey their views to the brothers in the executive agencies and heads of the political blocs." . . .

Shaykh Bashir al-Najafi, imam and preacher of the Al-Najaf Friday sermon, says: "We call on all the brother officials to do their duties toward these people. They should exert all efforts to do so."

Shaykh Jamal al-Dawsari, imam and preacher at an unidentified mosque in Basra, says: "We were tested in our country, Iraq. We are still being tested and the enemies of God are still wagering on fragmenting the unity of this country. The enemies of humanity are still wagering on destroying Iraq and on turning Iraq into a springboard for their terrorism, a base for their corruption, and a safe haven for evildoers and terrorists. However, Iraq's people now have enough awareness to the point where no one can deceive or fool them. This is because we knew who wants to have mercy on Iraq and who seeks to destroy Iraq, especially since the picture has become clear for those who understand and those who do not understand. There is nothing secret, but every thing is clear and obvious."

Shaykh Mahmud al-Khafaji, imam and preacher at an unidentified mosque in Babil, says: "The spread of cholera was caused by the terrorists. The cause of the spread of the disease is not scientific. From a scientific and medical viewpoint, everyone knows that this disease spreads in hot areas and not in cold areas, taking into consideration that the cold weather is not suitable for it. It spread in the Arbil Governorate and the areas of northern Iraq. This is a dirty act of terrorism. Terrorism is there, however, we cannot blame the terrorists, but we should take the employees to account. The administrative agencies should appoint the honest employee who has a national and a religious sense of responsibility toward the sons of his people to make sure that such a disease will not spread." . . .

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Basra and a Mahdi Army Resurgence?

AP reports that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is concerned about a wave of assassinations and killings in the southern port city of Basra:

' A spokesman for Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's top Shiite cleric, called on the Iraqi government to stop violence he said was increasingly plaguing southern Iraq and warned the inaction could further alienate Iraqis from the political process.

Sheik Abdul-Mahdi al-Karbalai said 200 people were killed in the past three months in the city of Basra alone, in addition to kidnappings, and he accused the government of failing to hold the attackers accountable or to stop oil smuggling operations.

Al-Karbalai's figures could not be independently verified, but his complaint was a sign of growing frustration over rampant clashes and violence in the mainly Shiite south largely blamed on rival militia factions.'

Aljazeera reported this week that the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr had routed the Basra police force and taken over the center of the city. These allegations are exaggerated, but it is possible that the Mahdi Army is growing in power in this key southern port through which most of Iraq's oil exports flow. The report said:

' The militia took over the city in clashes with the Iraqi police and reports say that the fighting was still going on. According to Al Jazeera, during the clashes, the local police chief, Muhammad Qaji, was forced to flee the city and the militants took control of the city's main power centres and deployed their men along Basra's main streets. Currently, at least four people are dead - three Iraqi soldiers and a militant - and at least 10 are injured. The men of the Mahdi army have also reportedly captured 50 police officers. The most violent clashes were in the city's central district of al-Andalus district. '

In contrast, AFP reported the police side of the story, in which there was a little trouble but they had it under control. (Though the police case that the skirmishes were minor is undermined by their apparent need to exaggerate the number of foreign residents they had arrested, by giving the figures from way back last June to present.)

Millenarian Shiites in Basra believe that the US and British forces are creating chaos in Iraq in order to distract Shiites from the Second Coming of their Promised One.

AP also reports that the Mahdi Army is reconsidering its truce with the rival Badr Corps, another major Shiite paramilitary. The Sadrists complain that the truce has yielded no tangible benefit to them.

The Mahdi Army is also considering ending its truce with the US military, having been angered by American raids on the militia's leaders.

---

At the Global Affairs group blog, Farideh Farhi on the significance of Bush's new sanctions on Iran; and Barnett Rubin on Afghanistan.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, Gen. Bonaparte issues orders for the organization of Egypt's provinces, appointing provincial governing councils, police chiefs and tax collectors.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Sanctions on Iran

The Bush administration announced wideranging new sanctions on Iran on Thursday, which target three Iranian banks, nine companies associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, and several individuals, as well as the IRGC (roughly analogous to the National Guard in the US, i.e. a populist adjunct to the formal Iranian army).

These unilateral sanctions clearly reflect frustration on the part of Bush/Cheney that they have not been able to convince the UN Security Council to apply international sanctions. (Iran has not been demonstrated to be doing anything that is illegal in international law.)

The sanctions may work but may not. The Dutch Shell corporation is thinking seriously of bucking the US and helping develop Iranian oil and gas production. China is negotiating a big deal with Iran. The world is energy hungry. Iran has energy. The US is a debtor nation, and has gone even more deeply into debt under Bush. It may just not be able to stand in the way of the development of Iranians energy.

The hypocrisy of the Bush case is obvious when it complains about Iran supporting Hizbullah and Hamas. The Kurds based in American Iraq have done much worse things to Turkey in the past month than Hizbullah did to Israel in June of 2006. Yet when Israel launched a brutal and wideranging war on all of Lebanon, destroying precious infrastructure and dumping enormous amounts of oil into the Mediterranean, damaging Beirut airport, destroying essential bridges in Christian areas, and then releasing a million cluster bomblets on civilian areas in the last 3 days of the war-- when Israel did all that, Bush and Cheney applauded and argued against a 'premature' cease-fire! Yet they are trying to convince Turkey just to put up stoically with the PKK terrorists who have killed dozens of Turkish troops recently and kidnapped 8 (again, more than the number of Iraeli troops that were kidnapped). Bush's coddling of the PKK in Iraq is not different from Iran's support for Hizbullah, except that the PKK is a more dangerous and brutal organization than Hizbullah.

Not to mention the US-backed Kurdish front against Iran itself, as Farideh Farhi explains.

Among the more fantastic charges that Bush made against Iran was that its government was actively arming and helping the Taliban in southern Afghanistan. In fact, the Taliban are extremist Sunnis who hate, and have killed large numbers of Shiites. Shiite Iran is unlikely to support them. The neo-Taliban are a threat to the Karzai government, which represents the Northern Alliance (Tajiks, Hazara and Uzbeks) along with non-Taliban Pushtuns. The Hazara are Shiite clients of Iran, and both the Tajiks and the Uzbeks are close to Tehran. The neo-Taliban are being supported by Pakistan, which resents the Northern Alliance, not by Iran, which favors it.

That Iran is trying to destabilize the Shiite government in Baghdad is absurd. The Bush administration charge that Iran is the source of explosively formed projectiles is based on very little evidence and flies in the face of common sense; in fact these bombs are probably made in Iraq itself or perhaps come from Hizbullah in Lebanon.

The charges are frankly ridiculous, and certainly are so if proportionality is taken into account. That is, if one bomb was sold by an Iranian arms dealer to the Taliban for profit, a hundred bombs were given to the Taliban by Pakistan for tactical reasons. Likewise, the Shiite militias in Iraq have killed very few American troops when the US troops have left the Shiites alone; most attacks on the US come from Sunni Arabs.

The Senate Kyl-Lieberman resolution helped legitimize this new Bush policy, which is why the senators should not have voted for it. It took us one more step down the road to war with Iran.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqi Delegation Pleads with Turkey not to Invade; Turkish Shelling of Iraqi Villages KRG: No PKK Offices in Iraq

The USG Open Source Center translates television news concerning the crisis between Turkey and Iraq over the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrilla actions against Turks; the PKK fighters are given safe haven inside Iraq by the Kurdistan Regional Authority, led by Massoud Barzani. In a second item, OSC translates a Kurdish t.v. report on the Turkish shelling of Iraqi villages in reprisal for PKK terror attacks in Turkey.

'Al-Sharqiyah, Al-Iraqiyah Report on Latest Political Developments in Iraq
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Thursday, October 25, 2007

[Al-Sharqiyah Television (Dubai)]: "The government of Iraqi Kurdistan Region denied Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's claims that the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has offices in areas under the control of the government of the region. Jamal Abdallah, spokesman for the government of the region, said that the PKK has no offices or headquarters in the region, asserting that the government of the region does not know what the prime minister meant by closing the PKK headquarters and where they are located."

"During his meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, who visited Baghdad on Tuesday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki promised to close the offices of the PKK, which he described as a bad terrorist organization, and to prevent it from working in Iraq."

"The spokesman said: "If Al-Maliki has offices in other areas in Iraq, let him close them." He asserted that there are no PKK offices in the areas under the control of the government of the region."

-- "The Iraqi government delegation, headed by Defense Minister Abd-al-Qadir al-Ubaydi, started talks with Turkish officials in Ankara over the crisis caused by the PKK insurgents in northern Iraq. Informed Iraqi sources said that the Iraqi delegation includes National Security Minister Shirwan al-Wa'ili; Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Lubayd Abbawi; Defense Minister Spokesman Muhammad al-Askari; Karim Sinjari, the interior minister in the government of Iraqi Kurdistan Region, as representative of the region; and a number of ministers. The sources added that the Iraqi delegation seeks to prevent a Turkish military invasion of northern Iraq to pursue the Kurdish insurgents, who stage attacks against Turkish military targets coming from mountainous areas in northern Iraq."

-- "Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi asserted that there are no Iraqis in the list of wanted people he received from the Turkish Government during his visit to Ankara. In press statements, Al-Hashimi said that he received a list of names of members of Kurdistan Workers Party, who are wanted by justice for involvement in terrorist activities. He added that the list, which is not for publishing, does not contain names of Iraqis."

"In another development, Al-Hashimi said in a statement issued by his office that the Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front still wants to participate in the government, but it will do this after correcting the current situation and after the government shows respect to the constitutional responsibilities given to the Iraqi presidency. He added that the technocratic government, which Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said he intends to form, should start with the prime minister, not only the Cabinet members."

[Al-Iraqiyah (Baghdad):] -- "Iraqi President Jalal Talabani chaired a regular meeting of the Presidential Council in Baghdad with the presence of Vice Presidents Adil Abd-al-Mahdi and Tariq al-Hashimi. The meeting discussed the latest political security, the current security challenges, and the nature of tasks shouldered by Iraqi political leaders."

"In press statements following the meeting, Talabani said that the council held a fruitful meeting, during which they discussed main issues in Iraq and agreed on a number of steps to find solution to issues on the political, security, and government levels. He described these agreements as good steps toward achieving national reconciliation and unifying the ranks."

-- "Dr Ali al-Dabbagh, official spokesman for the Iraqi Government, said that Iraq seeks to establish the best relations with its neighbor Turkey and that it will not allow any armed operation against its territory."

-- "Ninawa Governorate today witnessed a peaceful demonstration in protest against the Turkish threats against Iraq. The demonstrators expressed their rejection of using excessive force to resolve crises in the region."

-- "The Iraqi Government decided to revoke the immunity granted to private foreign security companies in Iraq by the Bremer-led Coalition Provisional Authority in 2004. A statement cited Iraqi Government Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh as saying that the Council of Ministers decided in a session held the day before yesterday to exclude private security companies from resolution 1, which was issued in 2004 by the Bremer-led Coalition Provisional Authority. Al-Dabbagh said that a draft law will be submitted in the regard to the Council of Ministers in the next meeting." '

=========

[Sources]

. . . Dubai Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic, independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic-language daily Al-Zaman, carries between 1300 GMT and 2000 GMT on 25 October the following reports on latest political developments in Iraq . . .

Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic, government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network, carries within its 1700 GMT newscast . . .

The second report has to do with the Turkish shelling of Iraqi Kurdish villages in reprisal for PKK attacks on Turkish security forces and civilians.

'Kurdish TV Station: Turkish Fighters Bombarded 13 Villages in Northern Iraq
Announcer-read report over video
Roj TV
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Fighting and attacks have escalated in South Kurdistan after the ratification of a motion declaring war on South Kurdistan was ratified by the Turkish Parliament. Meanwhile, clashes and bombardments intensified in the area. It was reported that 13 villages in South Kurdistan had been bombarded by fighter planes. In addition to bombardment by fighter planes which took off from Amed (Diyarbakir), the villages also came under gunfire.

Local sources said that F-16 fighters bombarded Kale, Baloka, Zozanit, Abasarki, and Fistahirori villages in Zakho and Nizordi, Saca, Cemki, Koperi, Resaba, and Zili villages in Amediye until dawn.

Meanwhile, military operations launched by the Turkish army in North Kurdistan continue. It was reported that a new operation was launched in a rural area near Tulu village in Dersim (Tunceli) and Kutudere. A large number of troops have reportedly been dispatched to the region.

(Description of Source: Brussels Roj TV in Turkish -- Kurdish television; supportive of the PKK and the People's Congress of Kurdistan, KONGRA-GEL) '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

2 US GIs Killed, 8 Wounded; Turkish Air Strikes against Kurds; Bombs in Baghdad Kill 8; Basra Police Chief Escapes Attempt on his Life

Turkish war planes and helicopter gunships attacked Kurdish guerrillas in eastern Anatolia on Wednesday, making at least one raid into Iraq according to wire services. An Iraqi delegation is going to Ankara to try to resolve the crisis, which may eventuate in a Turkish incursion into Iraqi territory.

A bombing of the Shiite Diyala Bridge district killed 8 persons and wounded 20 in the Iraqi capital.

A day after Basra security forces clashed with the militia of Muqtada al-Sadr, gunmen attempted but failed to assassinate the city's police chief. The police chief is from the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) which is nominally in charge of the province. The party is opposed by the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and by Sadrists, among others.

Muqtada al-Sadr insists that his Mahdi Army paramilitary continue the 6-month freeze on its activities.

It should be remembered that the JAM laid low in fall of 2004, as well, but eventually reemerged to engage in violence. It is a mass movement; it cannot be summarily decommissioned, and is likely to show back up eventually.

An Iraqi commission found Blackwater security guards guilty of killing 17 Iraqis in cold blood and the Iraqi government is determined to see the company expelled from the country and wants substantial reparations paid to the families of the victims.


Fred Kaplan on how the new air strike policy of dealing with Iraqi guerrillas is bad counter-insurgency and guaranteed to alienate the Iraqi population further from the US. See also my comments of yesterday.

John Judis on the way Bush's Iraq War is of a piece with the history of imperialism.

Reuters reports civil war violence in Iraq for Wednesday. Major incidents (in addition to the bombing in Baghdad mentioned above):

' BAIJI - Insurgents killed a U.S. soldier and wounded five others near the northern Iraqi town of Baiji, 180 km (112 miles), the U.S. military said. . .

TIKRIT - A U.S. soldier was killed and three others wounded when a mine exploded while they were conducting security operations in Salahuddin province, the U.S. military said. . .

BAGHDAD - Iraqi security forces found six bodies across Baghdad on Wednesday, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb exploded near a police commando patrol, wounding three people, including two policemen, in the Qadissiya district of southwestern Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Iraqi soldiers killed five gunmen and arrested 48 others during the last 24 hours in different parts of Iraq, the Defence Ministry said.

BAGHDAD - Clashes erupted between insurgents and police in the capital Baghdad, leaving two policemen and two insurgents dead and one insurgent wounded on Tuesday, police said.

HIB HIB - Three mortar rounds killed three people and wounded 24 others when they landed on the village of Hib Hib, 8 km (5 miles) northwest of Baquba, police said. . .

DIWANIYA - Iraqi police arrested Sulaiman al-Edami, a member of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's political movement, when they raided his house in a town near Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - Four bodies, including a woman and a girl, were found shot in separate attacks on Tuesday in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. '

McClatcy has more. A warm congratulations to the six Iraqi women journalists of McClatchy's Baghdad bureau on their 'Courage in Journalism' award. Well deserved!
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Cole on Amy Goodman's "Democracy Now", Oct. 23

My appearance on Amy Goodman's 'Democracy Now' is now available online. I am also giving the YouTube links below, which are clickable. But do help support DN at their web site.

I discuss developments in Iraq and Iraq, and in no. 3 below discuss the resonances of Bonaparte's invasion of Egypt to contemporary affairs.

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3.


For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Troop Deaths up over 2006 Air Strikes Rise Four Times Iraqi Cities under Curfew

At Salon.com, my column on the collapse of Bush's Middle East police, with the troubles on the Turkish/Iraq border and the huge bomb that greeted Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan.

Edward Luce of FT argues that Iraq has faded as a campaign issue in the 08 presidential election. He attributes this lower profile for the issue to a drop in US military deaths in Iraq and to the rise of Iran as an issue instead.

I may have been the first to point to the new salience of Iran to the race, in my Salon column last week, so I do not disagree with that assertion.

But I think it is way too early to write Iraq off as an issue. In fact, given the current crisis at the northern border with Turkey, it is a little bit bizarre to suggest that things have all calmed down, either over there or domestically.

First of all, the assertion that US troop deaths have fallen is extremely misleading. In fact, It is only late October and already more US troops were killed in Iraq in 2007 than in all of 2006. Indeed, 2007 will almost certainly hold the record for the year of the most US military deaths since the war began.

According to the Iraq Casualties Site, these are the yearly numbers of death of US military personnel in Iraq:

Year       US Deaths
2003       486
2004       849
2005       846
2006       822
2007       832

It is true that October is on track to be the least deadly for US troops since March of 2006.

It is, however, not clear why exactly US troop deaths have fallen so much in October. It is possible that they are being given few military missions and spending more time on base.

Indeed, the sort of ground missions that might involve hand to hand fighting and high US casualties may have been replaced by air strikes against suspected insurgent targets. US air strikes on Iraq are up by a factor of four in 2007 over 2006, according to Newsay. The US launched 1,140 bombing missions in 2007 through the end of September, as opposed to 229 in all of 2006. The US has flown as many as 70 such air missions a day this October, more than at any time since the November, 2004, assault on the Sunni Arab city of Fallujah.

Obviously, for an Occupation military to bomb a densely-populated city that it already largely controls is a violation of human rights law. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq has just condemned the US for using this tactic, which inevitably kills children, women and other non-combatants. You can't drop a bomb on an urban apartment building without killing lots of people, not only inside the building but also all around it. The bomb turns bits of the building into deadly projectiles. I am told that the US Air Force takes no responsibility for these aerial strikes when they are called in by army troops on the ground, and makes no assessment as to whether proportional force was deployed or excessive civilian casualties were incurred. So you have a convoy of soldiers in humvees driving through deeply hostile Sadr City, and someone starts sniping at them from a building. Obviously, running into the building is dangerous; it could be booby-trapped, or snipers could have set up there. I wouldn't want to do it. So the tendency would obviously be to take out the snipers by taking out the building they are using. That makes military sense. It doesn't make sense in the international law of occupations.

The US military spokesmen are always going on about precision strikes and reducing civilian casualties. I know they are sincere in thinking they can do that, but they just aren't dealing with a simple reality. They are bombing apartment buildings in densely populated cities!

The US military, then, may be artificially keeping US military deaths down this fall by resorting to many more aerial bombings. These bombings have repeatedly drawn forth powerful condemnations from the elected Iraqi political authorities and are unlikely to be viable much longer.

Evidence that US troops are being extremely careful also comes from the new policy on checkpoints. All vehicles are going to be stopped from now on except those of a high-ranking Iraqi politician such as the prime minister. One reader observed to me in an email of this story, that apparently the US in Iraq has fallen on such hard times that it can't trust anyone below the rank of prime minister.

The use of curfews and bans on vehicle traffic also seems to have expanded. The large northern city of Mosul (pop. 1.5 million) was put under curfew after bombings in late September. Several neighborhoods of Diwaniya are under curfew after clashes between the Mahdi Army and local police.

The entire city of Falluja appears to continue to labor under a ban on the operation of private vehicles (i.e. you cannot drive your car there). This policy has produced 80% unemployment. Basically keeping an entire city under lockdown has allowed the drawdown of US Marines from the city, with only 250 left. But it is crazy to think that this policy can be kept in place forever, and when the cars start circulating again, won't there be trouble?

That US reporters put such a positive spin on stories like the vast increase in aerial bombardment or the lockdown in Falluja just boggles my mind. Have they all drunk the Kool-Aid?

Reuters reports civil war violence for Tuesday. Major incidents:

' SAMARRA - The U.S. military said six Iraqi civilians were among 11 people killed in an air strike by an attack helicopter near Samarra, 100 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, after five men were seen planting a roadside bomb. Iraqi police said 16 civilians, including women and children, were killed and 14 wounded.

NEAR BAQUBA - A roadside bomb exploded near a minibus, killing three people, including one woman, and wounding 10, including five women, on the main road near the city of Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR FALLUJA - Police found 15 men shot, bound and blindfolded, in a deserted building on Monday in a town near Falluja, 50 km (35 miles) west of Baghdad, police Lieutenant Colonel Jubair al-Dulaimi said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded two people in the eastern Zayouna district of Baghdad, police said. .

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces killed one insurgent and detained 10 suspected insurgents during military operations on Oct. 20-22 in the areas of Baghdad, Mosul, Thar Thar and Rabiae, the U.S. military said. . .

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces killed one insurgent and wounded five in an air strike on Monday in northern Baghdad on men planting a roadside bomb, the U.S. military said.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Pressures Turkey not to Attack Mahdi Army attacks Police in Karbala Rubin on Cheney's Roll-out of Iran War

The Bush administration made a diplomatic 'full court press' with Turkish leaders to dissuade them from attacking the Kurdish Workers Party [PKK] guerrillas hiding out in Iraq after the killing of 17 Turkish troops and the capture of 8 others by the PKK on Sunday. Turkish Prime Minister Rejeb Tayyip Erdogan is alleged to have told US Secretary of State Condi Rice that the only way for the US to forestall a Turkish invasion is for its military to arrest the PKK leaders in Iraq themselves and to turn them over to Ankara.

Under all this American pressure, The PKK is said to be offering a conditional ceasefire with Ankara. The 'conditional' part doesn't seem very promising to me.

Although the US says it cannot control the PKK because it has few troops in the north of Iraq, this excuse neglects another reason that the US is essentially coddling a terrorist group that is killing fellow NATO troops. The fact is that the PKK is being coddled by Massoud Barzani and his Peshmerga, who could stop them hitting Turkey if they so desired. The other fact is that the US only has one really reliable ally in Iraq, which is the Kurds, and their paramilitary or the Peshmerga is the only element in the new Iraqi army that fights with any spunk or initiative. The US cannot afford to alienate Barzani or the Peshmerga; hence it is forced to try to wheedle Turkey into inaction in the face of a rather dramatic set of provocations.

South of Baghdad in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, fierce clashes broke out between Mahdi Army fighters and Iraqi police (most of them from the rival Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq). The Mahdi Army guerrillas ambushed the police, killing 6 of them. The fighting came on the heels of a US military strike on a building being used by guerrillas in Sadr City (which is politically largely Sadrist) that killed 49. The Iraqi government maintains that many of the dead were civilians, including women and children. The US apparently arrested a prominent Karbala-based Mahdi Army leader, named Abdul Hadi al-Muhammadawi, then in Sadr City, during its operation.

Reuters reports civil war violence for Monday. Major incidents:

'
MOSUL - Five bodies, including one of a female lawyer, were found in various parts of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Police said they found five bodies dumped across Baghdad on Monday.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi army patrol killed one soldier and wounded two others in the Jamiea district of western Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Police found six bodies, victims of violence, across Baghdad on Sunday, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed two people and wounded 13 when it exploded in the Karrada district of central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Two roadside bombs killed two people and wounded eight others, including three policemen, when they exploded in quick succession in the southern Baghdad outskirt of Zaafaraniya, police said.

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed Ahmed al-Mashhadani, an advisor of senior Sunni politician Adnan al-Dulaimi, on Thursday, Dulaimi's party said. . .

KUT - Gunmen killed a former member of the ousted Baath Party in a drive-by shooting in the city of Kut, 170 km (105 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said.

IFECH - Abbas al-Ghurabi, a local Sadr official in the town of Ifech near the southern city of Diwaniya, was found critically wounded hours after local police had arrested him, officials in Sadr's office said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed one policeman and wounded four, including one policeman, in the northern city of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

ISKANDARIYA - Gunmen killed an automotive engineer in the town of Iskandariya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

ISKANDARIYA - A roadside bomb killed two men on Sunday evening in the town of Iskandariya, police said. '

Barnett Rubin follows Cheney's roll-out of his campaign for war on Iran, a roll-out of which his sources warned us last month. He joins Fareed Zakariya in asking what planet we are on if we think Iran a threat to the international order.

Chalmers Johnson at Tomdispatch.com on intellectual fallacies of the 'war on terror.'
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Morning News on Napoleon's Egypt

From the Morning News Book section:

'Napoleon’s Egypt: Invading the Middle East by Juan Cole

Book Digest: As the bibliography of the disaster known as the Bush administration grows, a useful early distinction will be chronicle versus analysis and context. Cole, a thoughtful and imaginative scholar, offers the latter with his account of an earlier, disastrous attempt to interfere in the Arab world. As the New York Times’s Stephen Kinzer points out: “Cole’s book reminds us that today’s leaders are not the first to find the Islamic world far more complex than they imagined. It not only offers delicious stories about the private lives of invaders, but also teaches urgent lessons for the modern age.” '

I liked the "thoughtful and imaginative" part. :-)

Thanks to The Morning News.

Napoleon's Egypt at Amazon.com.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Air Strike kills 49 in Sadr City PKK Kills 17 Turkish Soldiers Turkey Shells Iraq

Ferit Demir reports (via The Scotsman):

' Kurdish rebels [of the PKK/ Kurdish Workers Party] killed at least 17 Turkish soldiers, wounded 16 others and took several hostage in an ambush near the Iraqi border yesterday . . .

Turkey's military general staff said 32 rebels were killed in continuing clashes. Its artillery also shelled areas inside Iraq yesterday morning but no casualties were reported. In response to the ambush, [Turkish PM Tayyip] Erdogan said: "We are very angry. ... Our parliament has granted us the authority to act and within this framework we will do whatever has to be done. The Turkish defence minister, Vecdi Gonul, speaking in Kiev after talks with the US defence secretary, Robert Gates, said that 17 soldiers were killed, 16 injured and ten others were still missing. The PKK said it had taken a number of soldiers hostage. Asked if there would be a military response to those attacks, Mr Gonul said: "Not urgently. They are planning a cross-border [incursion]." "We'd like to do these things with the Americans." Abdul Rahman Jaderji, a senior PKK official said the rebels had killed 40 soldiers. The pro-PKK Firat news agency, which is based in western Europe, said eight soldiers had also been taken hostage. '

So the US military went into Sadr City or the Shiite slums of East Baghdad in search of the leader of a "special group" or cell of the Mahdi Army whom they suspected of being part of a kidnapping -for- ransom ring. Then they took hostile fire from, well, hostile Shiite slum militiamen. The troops called in an air strike on the building from which the fire came. You can't, obviously, avoid killing civilians if you bomb a heavily populated slum from the air. So the real question is how many civilians they killed this way. The Iraqi government maintains that the victims were mostly children and innocent non-combatants, and PM Nuri al-Maliki has ordered an investigation-- to mollify the very angry Iraqi Shiites who saw the bombing as a war crime.

The US military did not catch the cell leader they were originally after.

The USG Open Source Center translates or paraphrases how the US air strike on East Baghdad was reported on the satellite news channels:

' Al-Jazirah, Al-Arabiyah Highlight Civilian Deaths in US Operation in Baghdad
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Sunday, October 21, 2007

Both [Aljazeera and Alarabiya] channels reported the US version of events, which states that US forces entered the area in pursuit of Al-Mahdi Army elements suspected of masterminding the abduction and murder of US soldiers, but were forced to open fire and call in air support when a bomb targeted them, ultimately killing 49 gunmen and no civilians. The channels, however, were more interested in the Iraqi version, which speaks of multiple civilian casualties.

Injured Iraqis (Al-Jazirah)

Al-Jazirah was the first to carry images of the aftermath of the operation in a video report it aired during its 1200 GMT newscasts. The report conveyed both the US and Iraqi accounts of the incident, but noted, against the backdrop of images of wounded citizens being treated in a hospital, that "regardless of what triggered the clashes, they ended in the killing and wounding of a total of 60 people. The US Army says it has no evidence that any of these people were civilians, and that coalition forces are doing their best to protect innocent civilians." The report was repeated in later newscasts.

The report was followed by an interview with Iraqi Journalist Falah al-Sharqi, who said that Apache gunships attacked residential neighborhoods in Al-Sadr City "contrary to their claims of confrontations between the Al-Mahdi Army and US forces," and insisted that the entire operation targeted only civilians. Al-Jazirah's anchorwoman commented: "Indeed, these pictures (of wounded civilians) support what you are saying, contrary to what the US Army said about there not being any civilian victims in this operation."

Mourning Iraqis (Al-Arabiyah)

Al-Arabiyah reported civilian casualties as early as 0800 GMT, and carried its first video report in its 1300 GMT newscasts. In it, the channel showed an Iraqi man saying: "We were asleep when US forces came here with their planes and attacked us. We were sleeping. We have no weapons or any bad people here." The report showed Iraqis examining damage to their homes and a man mourning his children and said: "The US forces said that the raid led to the death of a group of gunmen, but it did not mention the death of civilians and children." It also notes that officials in the Al-Sadr trend deemed the operation "barbaric." The report was repeated in later newscasts.

Al-Jazirah carried a second report in its 1800 GMT newscast. The report was an expansion on the first one and contained footage of two dead infants, and it noted that the US Army says it has no evidence of civilian casualties and is keen on protecting them, "words that the father of one of the two dead children would contest as he gazes upon the beds and pictures of his children" -- the video shows a tearful man holding a picture of his children.
The footage used by both channels came from the same source and was virtually identical.

Al-Jazirah dedicated its "Behind the News" talk show to discussing tensions between the United States and the Al-Sadr trend. Iraqi analyst Dr Liqa Makki, a frequent guest on the channel, opens with the following remark: "As is known, Al-Sadr City is very crowded, and any bomb falling from the sky is destined to kill many, if not all, of the civilians in its blast area. What the Americans said is yet to be corroborated, but they always do this -- they bomb civilian areas under the pretext of gunmen presence there."

At 2039 GMT, Al-Jazirah interviewed Shaykh Salah al-Ubaydi, head of the media branch of the Martyr Al-Sadr Office, who maintained that there were no clashes with the Al-Mahdi Army, that US helicopters bombed residential neighborhoods on the outskirts of Al-Sadr City, and that most of the casualties were civilian.'

McClatchy adds:

'Six dead bodies were found in Baghdad. 4 in Ameriya, 1 in Sadr, 1 in Sleikh.

Karbala

- Two mortar shells slammed into holy city of Karbala on Saturday, targeting a police center in the Saif Saad area and another building near a shrine yesterday night. One man was killed and two others were injured. Iraqi authorities imposed a curfew in fear of more attacks.

Mosul

- Gunmen killed Yousef Ibraheem, a coach of a local team, eastern Mosul today. . .

At the Global Affairs blog, Barnett Rubin looks at the way Afghan President Hamid Karzai finds himself caught between Iran and the US, and he tells us that the Iranians have explained exactly how they will reply to a US attack-- with rocket attacks of their own on US bases. I.e. they will behave as Hizbullah did during the Israel war on Lebanon in summer of of 2006.

At the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, a letter from the French admiral on the journey to Egypt and the exposed position of the French fleet.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

The Sadism of the Israeli Occupation

The Guardian reports on a building scandal in Israel over the extreme brutality of its occupation of the Palestinians in the West Bank. Excerpt:

' According to Yishai Karin: 'At one point or another of their service, the majority of the interviewees enjoyed violence. They enjoyed the violence because it broke the routine and they liked the destruction and the chaos. They also enjoyed the feeling of power in the violence and the sense of danger.' In the words of one soldier: 'The truth? When there is chaos, I like it. That's when I enjoy it. It's like a drug. If I don't go into Rafah, and if there isn't some kind of riot once in some weeks, I go nuts.' . . . One described beating women. 'With women I have no problem. With women, one threw a clog at me and I kicked her here [pointing to the crotch], I broke everything there. She can't have children. Next time she won't throw clogs at me. When one of them [a woman] spat at me, I gave her the rifle butt in the face. She doesn't have what to spit with any more.' '

The idea that these sorts of actions derive from 'lack of training' is absurd. They derive from hatred and from being able to act with impunity. They are a burden of the strong who have the opportunity to abuse the weak.

The US political elite and media that conceals the brutality of the Israeli occupation for sectional political gains are accomplices to this sadism, and their silence endangers the security of the United States. When we cannot understand why Arab audiences, who are perfectly aware of what the Israeli army has been doing to Palestinians for decades, are outraged, it leads us into policy mistakes in dealing with the Middle East. No one in the US media ever talks about Zionofascism, and the campus groups who yoke the word 'fascism' to other religions and peoples are most often trying to divert attention from their own authoritarianism and approval of brutality.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq/ Turkey Tensions in Streets, Halls of Parliament Turkish Economy Imperilled Istrabadi Resigns, Slams Iraqi Government

Iraqi president - slash - Kurdistan leader Jalal Talabani condemned Syria's president Bashar al-Asad for supporting the Turkish claim of the right to invade Iraq in search of Kurdish guerrillas [the Turks--and I suppose the US State Department -- say 'terrorists'] being given safe harbor there. Talabani connived at the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 on similar grounds, but now is posing as the great champion of Arab solidarity and denouncing Bashar for urging foreign troops to make incursions into a fellow Arab state. Mam Jalal, you don't have standing to make that particular argument after you brought Bush to Baghdad.

Thousands of Kurds demonstrated in the northern city of Dohuk against Turkey's threatened invasion.

Now we have the duel of the parliaments. First the Turkish parliament voted to allow military incursions into Iraq in hot pursuit of Kurdish terrorists who killed people in Turkey. Now the Iraqi parliament is crafting a resolution denouncing the Turkish parliament. All these mutual condemnations remind me eerily of 1914.

Meanwhile, the guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party threatened to retaliate against any Turkish military moves against them in their safe haven of Iraqi Kurdistan, by hitting the oil pipelines in Turkey.

Turkey's stock market and currency value could be badly hurt if Ankara sends troops into Iraq. Such adverse economic consequences would be a shame, since Turkey is one of the few economic bright spots among non-oil countries in the Middle East.

The Iraqi political class continues to fiddle as Baghdad burns. Now PM Nuri al-Maliki is trying to prevent Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi from making political hay by visiting mostly Sunni Arab prisoners in Iraq prisons, of which their are thousands, many languishing for long periods without trials or even without formal charges.

The Iraqi guerrillas continued their steady drumbeat of bombings and assassinations on Saturday, in Baghdad, Kirkuk, Iskandariya, and even Basra.

Feisal Istrabadi, former deputy ambassador of the Shiite government of Iraq to the United Nations, has resigned in disgust with the corruption and inefficiency of the Iraqi government and is now speaking out critically. Like Gen. Rick Sanchez, apparently he told the US media all those sunny things about the situation in Iraq despite his better judgment, because it was part of his job to be a good soldier. I know and admire Mr. Istrabadi, but I really wish more people such as he and Sanchez had started speaking out earlier (summer 2004 would have been good), since they in effect ended up running interference for Bush's reelection campaign and prolonged the agony for both countries. I debated Istrabadi more than once, as at the Lehrer Newshour, and also on radio shows such as Warren Olney's To the Point and have to wonder whether, despite our surface disagreements (with me playing the critic and pessimist), he actually agreed privately with much of what I was saying. Another issue is that far Rightwing and mostly very dishonest blogs such as Powerline used the testimony of Iraqis such as Istrabadi to bring sharply into question my own analyses. They used to charge that Cole was way off base since our generals and the Iraqi officials agreed with Bush about the 'improving' situation in Iraq. And all these brain dead Rightists are now crowing about the reduced casualty counts in Iraq, as though they weren't artificially achieved, as though they could possibly be sustained, and as though they meant anything in the absence of genuine political progress. Now that Sanchez and Istrabadi are revealing that they actually privately agreed with critics such as myself even at that time and all along, will the Rightwing blogs now apologize to those they smeared?

An interesting article on the apparent drop in casualties in Iraq and its true significance. The authors argue that violence has actually spiked in Baghdad, where there are lots of US troops, but declined in other areas from which troops have withdrawn. Local forces appear to have taken care of the more violent characters (such as "al-Qaeda in Iraq") after the Coalition troops were no longer around, as in al-Anbar.

I haven't crunched the numbers myself, and so can't comment on these conclusions. I think the authors are incorrect to conclude that US troops have left al-Anbar. I believe that they are enforcing a vehicle curfew in Falluja, and that the ones left in Mosul have just started one in that city. My guess is that an important part of the story is various forms of lockdown of the Sunni Arab population, which has been the major source of violence all along (the Shiite south outside Basra and Diwaniya has been relatively quiet except when we attacked Muqtada al-Sadr frontally; in the two cities mentioned, there has been substantial Shiite on Shiite violence).

As long-time readers know, I believe that the only reason that the various players don't form brigade-sized units and fight set piece battles with one another is US air power, which would take them out if they tried it. I don't agree with the authors' conclusion that a US withdrawal would lead to social peace, since I believe that the low intensity war is only low intensity because the US military imposes limits on intensity. If the US forces weren't there, the local forces would fight their various wars to a conclusion or a stalemate.

Farideh Farhi explains the significance of the resignation of Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator and his replacement by a diplomatic novice close to hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. She points out that Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei signed off on these changes, suggesting that he has either lost control of the nuclear issue or that he is throwing his weight behind the far Iranian right in the form of Ahmadinejad. Either way, she says, this resignation is big news.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Dictating Islam to Muslims

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, Jaubert's important letter critical of Napoleon Bonaparte's use of the naval forces. It also contains the crucial passage, "You will laugh outright, perhaps you witlings of Paris, at the Mahometan proclamation to the Commander in Chief. He is proof, however, against all your raillery; and the thing itself will certainly produce a most surprising effect. You recollect that produced by the magic cry of GUERRE AUX CHATEAUX, PAIX AUX CASANES [War to Palaces, peace to cottages]." Jaubert is referring to Bonaparte's broadsheet to the Egyptians in which he claims that the Deism of the French revolution, being non-Trinitarian and opposed to the Catholic hierarchy, is more or less a form of "Islam" (in the vague sense of a strictly monotheistic, non-Christian religion). Jaubert thought Bonaparte's stratagem brilliant, but knew it would be laughed at in worldly Paris. He compared it to the class war the French Revolutionaries unleashed in the early 1790s, when they tried to convince the working and poor strata that an attack on monarchy promised a better life for the disadvantaged. In fact, the Egyptian Muslims do not appear to have believed that Deism looked anything like Islam, since they emphasized practice (prayers, fasting, etc.) over mere doctrine. The Chronicler Abd al-Rahman al-Jabarti pointed out that if strict monotheism and rejection of the trinity made a belief "Islam," then Jews would be Muslims. Bonaparte's attempt to convince the Egyptian Muslims that he was one of them is reminiscent of American claims to be supporting "true" "moderate" Islam against Salafi fundamentalists who had "hijacked" the religion-- as if any Muslim thinks Washington can tell what true Islam is.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkey: We are More than Serious [About an Invasion] Barzani: Iraqi Kurdsistan will Defend Itself

The leader of the Kurdistan Regional Authority in Iraq, Massoud Barzan, called Friday for talks with Turkey. The call was immediately rejected by Ankara, which accuses Barzani of deliberately harboring 3,000 to 5,000 guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party who have been going back over into Turkey and blowing people up or killing them (i.e. engaging in terrorism).

Sawt al-Iraq writes in Arabic of three important developments on the Turkey/ Kurdistan front. First, Ankara announced its refusal to conduct any direct talks with the officials of the Kurdistan Regional Authority in Iraq, insisting rather on going through Baghdad (i.e. through the federal government of Iraq).

The Turkish government also said that it is "more than serious" on the issue of making an incursion into Iraq to wipe out the rebels of the PKK on the grounds of fighting terrorism that menaces Turkey. Some 70,000 to 100,000 Turkish troops are massed on the Iraqi border. Turkey has the second largest military in NATO.

Barzani, leader of the Iraqi Kurds, announced that Kurdistan is "ready to defend itself" against any Turkish military incursion.

US Secretary of Defense announced that the US would intervene against the PKK guerrillas.

See also this AFP report on the building conflict.

An important Shiite cleric of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) was assassinated on Friday in south Baghdad.

Danny Postel on how the Neoconservatives are big supporters of the terrorist MEK [Mojahedin-e Khalq] organization that has blown up lots of people in Iran and has now been adopted by the US Pentagon. It is almost certainly a major source, along with some Kurdish groups, of the false information on Iran continually spewed by US generals in Iraq. I.e., just as the Neoconservatives 'ran' Chalabi to mislead the US government, so now they are running the MEK for the same purpose. My country is run by a congeries of Cults.

===

Tom Engelhardt asks, "do we already have our own Pentagon Papers?"

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Gen. Abizaid: Iraq about Petroleum

Gen. John Abizaid at Stanford U.:

' While [panelists] discussed green technology, the subject of America’s operations in Iraq was also a hotly debated topic. Abizaid, who was formerly the Commander of the United States Central Command, quickly established a connection between the two topics.

“Of course it’s about oil, we can’t really deny that,” Abizaid said of the Iraq campaign early on in the talk. . .

Abizaid said the current strategy was failing because American armed forces are not adequately supported by civilian branches of government. A much more heavily involved Department of State, Agriculture, CIA and DEA are needed to help stabilize regions in the Middle East, he said.

“I’d rather have more members of the State Department on the field than soldiers on the field,” Abizaid said.

Although the general acknowledged that America is “not making the progress we need to be making” in Iraq, he argued in his final remarks against a military pullout.

“The world is too small to turn our back and we can’t walk away,” he said. “To retreat from the role that needs us would be the greatest crime of all.”

Related to the war effort abroad is the list of domestic issues of constitutional significance beginning with — but not limited to — the treatment of so-called “enemy combatants” detained at Guantanamo Bay. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sneaky FCC Must be Stopped

Alexandra Russell writes:

This morning, the New York Times revealed that FCC Chairman Kevin Martin is rushing through a plan to rewrite media ownership rules, letting the biggest media companies control even more local outlets. And he's doing it without giving the public a chance to respond. The rules could take effect as early as December.

Tell Congress to stop the FCC before it's too late. Visit FCC Oversight Campaign.

It's outrageous that Martin would try to pull a fast one on Americans. Fortunately, some members of Congress are fighting back. Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota said, "If the chairman intends to do something by the end of the year, then there will be a firestorm of protest and I'm going to be carrying the wood." It's time to help Senator Dorgan light the fire.

The FCC tried to do this in 2003, and nearly 3 million people rose up to say no. Our protest forced Congress and the courts reject the FCC's decision.

But despite overwhelming public opposition, Chairman Martin is trying to sneak through this massive giveaway before the Bush administration leaves office. We can put a stop to Martin's secret plan by reminding your elected officials that they must hold the FCC accountable.

Don't let Martin get away with rewriting the rules: Demand that Congress hold the FCC accountable

Take action here.

We don't have much time - we need Congress to act now before it's too late. Don't make Sen. Dorgan carry the wood all alone.

Onward,

Alexandra Russell Program Director Free Press

--------------------------------------------------

Visit this web address to tell your friends about this.

. . . you can sign up
for FP - E-Activists at this site.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Karachi and Waziristan

Barnett Rubin points in our Global Affairs group blog to the impact of the failures in Afghanistan, of the tribal turmoil in Waziristan, on the Karachi bombing at the center of Pakistani politics.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

136 Dead in Pakistan Bombing Gilani: Neighboring Country Warned of Attack on Bhutto

Manan Ahmed at our Global Affairs Blog points out that Karachi has now joined New York, Madrid and London as a site of a major terrorist attack. Late reports say 136 are dead and over 500 wounded in a bombing aimed at assassinating former prime minister of Pakistan Benazir Bhutto on her return after years of exile. She was unharmed.

Benazir's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, charged that elements within the government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, fearful that Benazir will displace them in the January elections, were behind the blast. Benazir herself blamed it on Muslim fundamentalists opposed to a woman coming to power.

The USG Open Source Center translates and interview with a politician from Benazir's Pakistan People's Party, who alleges that a 'neighboring country' had warned that there would be an attempt on her life.

Pakistan: Leader Says 'Neighboring Country' Warned About Attack on Bhutto Rally
Geo News TV
Friday, October 19, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Text


Yousuf Reza Gilani, leader of Pakistan People's Party (PPP), has strongly condemned the bomb blasts at the PPP Chairperson Ms. Benazir Bhutto's rally and has said that Benazir Bhutto is an //iron lady// and such type of incidents cannot hinder her determination. He expressed these views while talking to Geo News Correspondent Ashraf Zaidi at Bilwal House (Bhutto family residence in Karachi).

(Begin recording) (Gilani) As far as this //suicide bombing// is concerned, we //condemn// these types of //incidents// today as we have done in the past and we will do so in future. This is very improper //trend//and this should not happen. And, our neighboring country had also informed the government that such type of incident could take place. As our neighboring country had given the information, the government should have been on alert and //look after// it (the information), but they did no[t] do so.

(Zaidi) Gilani, what could be the objectives behind such bomb blasts?

(Gilani) You see, the objectives could be to //discourage/political forces// or //democratic forces// and to prove that //this is not a safe haven for the politicians// and they should not come here and do something. But we do not panic because of these acts. This incident, however, is a big excess. The //blasts// took place when chairperson// (Bhutto) was preparing her //speech// which she was to //address// (to her supporters at Mohammad Alin Jinnah's mausoleum). People in large number have also been injured and even huge lumps of flesh have fallen on the people present and a fire was meant to be caused, but it did not flare up. I think this is very improper act. I have just met the //chairperson// and I have inquired about her well-being. I went to see her right away after the incident.

(Zaidi) Gilani, please tell us what is the //physical// and//mental state// of Benazir Bhutto at present?

(Gilani) You see, she is an //iron lady// and she has endured many //party// problems. What I mean is that she is sad at the loss of life of policemen and she has lost her party workers and many journalists and her//bodyguards// ... (Incomplete sentence as heard) (end recording)

(Description of Source: Karachi Geo News TV in Urdu -- 24-hour satellite news TV channel owned by Pakistan's Jang publishing group, broadcast from Dubayy. Known for providing quick and detailed reports of events. Programs include some Indian shows and dramas which the group claims are aimed at promoting people-to-people contact and friendly relations with India.)

========

Also at the Global Affairs blog, Barnett Rubin on the shutting down of more private security firms in Afghanistan.

New entries at the Napoleon's Egypt blog - Jaubert on the Battle of the Nile and Napoleon Bonaparte's letter to his brother Joseph on his conquest of Alexandria.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkish Parliament Authorizes Iraq Incursion Blackwater Leaving Iraq

The Turkish parliament authorized a Turkish incursion into Iraq in pursuit of guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK).

Syria threw its support behind Turkey on this issue. Syria has 2 million Kurds of its own, in a population of 19 million [plus 1.4 million Iraqi refugees]. Bashar al-Asad fears Kurdish nationalism as a threat to Syrian national unity just as does Turkey. Moreover, Syria is increasingly isolated, and probably welcomes an opportunity to improve relations with Ankara. (Ironically, in the 1990s Syria gave surreptitious support to the Kurds).

It is looking as though the Blackwater security firm will leave Iraq when its current contract is up, and will not put in a bid for a continuation of its role in guarding the State Department. The

A UN study finds a growing cadre in the world of mercenary armies, a practice that is forbidden in 30 countries worldwide. The The Iraqi government is determined to put the security guards in that country under Iraqi law, even if that move drives them out.

Barnett Rubin broaches the subject of the private security contractors in Afghanistan, at a time when the focus is solely on their activities in Iraq.

Iraq will award Iran and China a $1.1 bn. contract to build two enormous electricity generating plants, says the NYT. The US military is said to be worried that the Iranians will put intelligence agents in Iraq as part of this project. I fear I think the real worry is that Iran will get credit for building the electricity plants, something the US was apparently too weak or inefficient to pull off.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Putin & Ahmadinejad Pledge Cooperation

Farideh Farhi weighs in on the significance of Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Iran, and the frustrations his olive branch to Tehran produced in Bush (who went a little crazy, talking about World War III if Iran gained the knowledge of how to produce a nuclear weapon.)

The USG Open Source Center translates from Russian the joint statement of President Putin and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Highlights include a joint call for a timetable to be set for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq; Russian investment in the Iranian energy sector (which the US opposes and says it would punish by boycotts); further consultations between Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Council; and a peaceable resolution of the dispute over Iran's nuclear energy research program.

'Russian and Iranian presidents' joint statement
ITAR-TASS
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Russian and Iranian presidents' joint statement

Text of report by Russian state news agency ITAR-TASS

Tehran, 16 October: A joint statement has been signed following today's talks in Tehran between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. Here is its full text.

On 16 October 2007, which corresponds to 24 Mehr 1386 in the Iranian calendar, Russian President Vladimir Putin, at the head of a high-ranking delegation, paid a working visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran on the invitation of President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. This was the first visit to Iran by a Russian head of state in the whole history of relations between the two countries.

During his stay in Tehran, Russian President Vladimir Putin took part in the Second Caspian Summit, met and held talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i and President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinezhad.
During the talks, which were held in the atmosphere of trust and mutual understanding, the sides discussed key aspects of Russian-Iranian relations and cooperation in various areas, exchanged views on important regional and international issues and reached the following agreements.

1. The sides confirmed that mutually beneficial cooperation in the political, economic, cultural and other areas, as well as cooperation on the international stage, meet the national interests of the two sides and play an important role in supporting peace and stability in the region and beyond.

2. The sides expressed their determination to further contribute to the steady development of multifaceted Russian-Iranian relations, keeping with the spirit and the letter of the Treaty on the Fundamentals of Relations and Principles of Cooperation, which was signed in Moscow on 12 March 2001.

3. On issues of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Iran, the sides spoke in favour of increasing efforts to further expand economic ties between the two countries, especially in areas like the oil and gas, nuclear power, electricity, processing and aircraft-building industries, banking and transport. Both sides are convinced that the Permanent Russian-Iranian Commission for Trade and Economic Cooperation will make a valuable contribution to this work.

4. Special attention was paid to cooperation in the extraction and transportation of energy resources. The sides agreed to develop direct contacts between the two countries' oil and gas companies in order to sign concrete, mutually beneficial commercial agreements on joint work in all segments of the oil and gas sectors.

5. The sides confirmed their interest in coordinating marketing policies in oil and gas exports, attracting Russian companies to the development of oil and gas fields in Iran, including the Southern Pars gas field, and creating in Iran industrial facilities to produce, store and export natural gas.

6. Both sides confirmed their interest in continuing cooperation in the energy sector, including the modernization of thermal and hydro-electric power plants built with Russia's help and the construction of new ones, including the Tabas coal thermal power plant in Iran.

7. The sides noted bilateral cooperation in the area of peaceful nuclear energy and confirmed that it will continue in full compliance with the requirements of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. In this regard they also noted that the construction and launch of the Bushehr nuclear power plant will be carried out in accordance with the agreed timetable.

8. The sides noted with satisfaction the signing of a contract to supply Iran with five Tu-204-100 aircraft. In this regard they expressed interest in deepening cooperation in the area of aviation industry further. The sides support the on-going talks between the relevant organizations of the two countries on the supply to Iran and the production in this country of Tu-334 and Tu-214 commercial aircraft and Kamov civilian helicopters. They also expressed their support for a speedy preparation and signing of contracts on these projects.

9. During their meeting the presidents deemed it necessary to continue work on the creation of favourable legal, economic and financial conditions for joint investment in Russia and Iran. In this context the sides noted the need to sign as soon as possible a memorandum between the government of the Russian Federation and the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the development of long-term trade and economic, industrial and scientific and technical cooperation and an agreement on facilitating and protecting capital investment.

10. The sides agreed to continue work on the development of the north-south international transport corridor, including its automobile, rail and maritime components, in the interest of further strengthening trade and economic ties between Russia and Iran, as well as other countries of the region.
In this regard the sides agreed to speed up the consideration of the issue of resumption of road transport communication between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran through the territory of (Russia's) Republic of Dagestan.

11. The sides expressed their satisfaction with the steady development of regional cooperation between the Russian Federation's constituent parts and provinces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this regard they expressed confidence that the resumption of operations in the city of Rasht by the Russian Consulate General and the opening of Iran's Consulate General in the city of Kazan, Russia, will facilitate further strengthening of interregional ties between the two countries.

12. The sides discussed pressing regional problems, expressed interest in bilateral and multilateral cooperation in Central Asia and the Transcaucasus with the aim of strengthening stability and security in these regions, including by way of closer cooperation between the countries of the region on the basis of mutual respect and interest.

13. Russia and Iran advocate the development of equal and constructive cooperation between member and observer states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on matters of mutual interest.

14. The presidents of the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran confirmed the two sides' aspiration to solve all the issues arising on the Caspian Sea solely by peaceful means, through cooperation on equal footing between the five Caspian littoral states. They agree that the relevant norms of the agreements of 1921 and 1940 between Iran and the former Soviet Union remain in force until there is a convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea.

Taking into account the vulnerability of the environment of the Caspian Sea, the sides call on everyone to refrain from taking steps that could harm the environment, to maintain a reasonable balance between the efforts to develop energy resources and protect the marine environment of the Caspian Sea.

The sides invite the other Caspian littoral states to start talks, as soon as possible, on issues of cooperation in maintaining peace and strengthening security and stability on the Caspian. They advocate the exclusion from the Caspian of military presence of non-Caspian littoral states.

The Second Caspian Summit, which took place in Tehran on 16 October 2007 (24 Mehr 1386), and its declaration - the first political document adopted by the five countries - were assessed as highly significant. Satisfaction was expressed with the Caspian littoral states' positions on key issues of status, security and cooperation on the sea drawing closer to each other.

15. The sides confirmed the understanding of special responsibility of the littoral states for ensuring security on the Caspian Sea, including as regards countering new challenges and threats. In this regard the sides think that the implementation of the idea to create on the Caspian a naval group for operational cooperation (Casfor) would facilitate the elimination of the threat of terrorism and the proliferation of WMD, the fight against illegal trafficking of arms and narcotics and human trafficking and facilitate the protection of the Caspian littoral states' economic interests, the strengthening of stability and security in the region and the development of cooperation and interaction in addressing common tasks. They call on all the littoral states to actively join in this project and start talks on the parameters of their cooperation for this purpose as soon as possible.

16. The Russian and Iranian presidents noted the closeness of Russia's and Iran's approaches to the tackling of key issues of world politics and confirmed their readiness to expand cooperation with the aim of building a fairer and more democratic world order which would ensure global and regional security and create favourable conditions for stable development.

It was stressed that such a world order should be based on collective principles and the supremacy of international law with the United Nations Organization playing a central coordinating role, while any international and regional conflict and crises should be settled in strict compliance with the UN Charter and norms of international law, taking into account the legitimate interests of all the sides involved.

The sides confirmed their refusal to use force or threat of force to resolve contentious issues, and their respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states.

17. The presidents stated that Russia and Iran resolutely condemn terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, confirmed the inadmissibility of equating terrorism with any nation, culture or religion.

The sides spoke in favour of strengthening the United Nations Organization's central coordinating role in the fight against international terrorism and other new challenges and threats. They will closely cooperate in implementing the UN's global antiterrorist strategy, ensuring strict observation of norms of universal antiterrorist conventions, as well as in promoting the soonest possible completion of the process of coordinating the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism.

Being concerned by the ideological expansion of terrorism, Russia and Iran pay attention to the need for a consistent implementation of all the UN Security Council resolutions which condemn terrorism and call for every possible development of global dialogue.

The sides continue their cooperation in the fight against terrorism and other new challenges and threats at the regional level, above all on the basis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, laying prime emphasis on curbing terrorist and drugs threats emanating from the territory of Afghanistan and creating anti-drugs and financial security belts around it.

The presidents noted the importance of increasing bilateral cooperation between Russia and Iran in the fight against terrorism and spoke in favour of continuing the practice of exchanging views between the ministries of foreign affairs of the two countries on the subject of countering new challenges and threats, making contacts between relevant bodies more active and giving them practical content.

18. When discussing the situation in Afghanistan, the sides expressed their concern over the continued worsening of the situation in that country, an increase in terrorist threats on the part of Taliban and other extremist forces. The presidents confirmed Russia's and Iran's intention to continue to take part in the post-war reconstruction of Afghanistan and are interested in strengthening its statehood and the process of that country becoming a peaceful, democratic, independent and flourishing state.

19. The sides expressed their concern over the difficult humanitarian situation in the occupied Palestinian Territories, especially in connection with the effective isolation of Gaza Strip.
The presidents noted that the restoration of Palestinian-wide consensus and unity through dialogue is a necessary precondition for the implementation of national aspirations of the Palestinian people, including the creation of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state.
The Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran confirmed their adherence to reaching a just, comprehensive and lasting settlement of the Middle East conflict.

20. The sides noted the need to strengthen the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Lebanon and maintain national unity, stability, security and peace in that country. The sides support efforts to achieve accord between various Lebanese movements to enable them to make decisions vital for Lebanon, within the framework of the constitution, with the participation of all political forces of the country, without any interference from abroad. The sides believe that this is the only way to take the country out of the present crisis.

21. The Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran expressed vigorous support for Iraq's territorial integrity and sovereignty and for an end to foreign military presence in that country on the basis of the relevant schedule.

Supporting Iraq's government and parliament, which was elected on the basis of the constitution, the sides express hope that inter-faction strife, which negatively affects their work, will be soon overcome through a comprehensive pan-Iraqi dialogue.

22. Acknowledging the strategic importance and sensitivity of the Gulf region, as well as the importance of supporting security and stability there, the sides noted a need for collective cooperation of all littoral states in ensuring peace and security in the region and developing tools to ensure security within the framework of international law.

The sides noted the importance of reducing foreign military presence in the region and drawing up common measures of trust between regional and other states in order to ensure stability and security in the Gulf region.

23. The presidents of Russia and Iran noted the need to settle the issue of Iran's nuclear programme as soon as possible by political and diplomatic means through talks and dialogue and expressed hope that a long-term comprehensive solution will be found.

After the visit to Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinezhad for hospitality and warm welcome and invited him to visit Russia at his convenience. The invitation was received by the Iranian president with gratitude. The sides will agree on the date of the visit through diplomatic channels.

(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in Russian -- main government information agency) '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Cole in Salon: "The Iran Hawks"

My column in Salon.com, "The War Hawks," is now online. Excerpt:

' Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton think a tough line on Tehran will sell politically. They could be right.

Future historians may conclude that the key issue in the 2008 presidential campaign was not Iraq, but whether the United States should go to war with Iran. Sparring over Iran dominated the Republican debate in Dearborn, Mich., last week, while a Senate resolution condemning Iran's Revolutionary Guards as terrorists divided the Democrats, some of whom (including Sen. Barack Obama and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi) feared that it might give Bush a pretext to launch another war. Unexpectedly, Tehran has emerged as a preoccupation of candidates -- as a litmus test for attitudes toward war and domestic security. '

Read the whole thing.

(Remember that Salon is an amazing bargain for a daily publication with so much thought-provoking comment-- Joe Conason, Glenn Greenwald, Sidney Blumenthal, Joan Walsh, Gary Kamiya, Garrison Keillor (my idol!) etc., etc. I subscribed premium long before I ever convinced them to publish me.)

----
Other reading:

At the Global Affairs blog, Philip J. Cunningham argues that Japan's ruling party is moving away from the right wing and militaristic rhetoric of the Koizume and Abe governments.

Susie Madrak's blog needs some contributions. She had a birthday not so long ago; if you like what she writes, send along a token of appreciation.

Pamela Leavy considers the false rumors about Air America broadcaster Randi Rhodes being mugged that spun out of control in the blogosphere as an object lesson. She writes, "I didn’t comment on the story earlier today and now I have one thing to say, this over-zealous urge to break the news, and speculate on it is out of control."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Oil Peak or Peak Oil?

The tensions between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan contributed to jitteriness in the oil markets that drove the prices to as high as $88.20 at one point on Tuesday before falling back to over $87. The oil price spike in turn frightened investors and hit stock markets around the world.

The United States consumes about 21 million barrels of petroleum every day. About 85 million barrels a day is produced in the entire world. The US thus consumes about a fourth of the supply, even though it has only 5 percent of the world's population. The US only produces about 7.5 million barrels a day, so it has to import some 13 million. the geniuses in the White House have so alienated some US suppliers, like Venezuela, that Caracas is planning to sell nearly half of its over 2 mn. b/d to China rather than selling it all to the US. Since petroleum is now increasingly scarce and is a seller's market, Chavez's plan would cut down on the amount of petroleum available to the US.

On the other hand, nearly a fourth of US dwellings completely lack insulation, and most others have old windows that radiate away energy, just plain holes and gaps through which energy escapes, etc. If Bush had given tax breaks for putting in insulation and for conservation instead of giving away billions to rich people who don't need it, the US would have saved millions of barrels a day, replacing everything Iraq or Venezuela produces (and wiping out the reason for the Iraq War).

Insulation is better than war.

(Ethanol, by the way, is an expensive fraud from the same people that brought you sugar tariffs and corn syrup that promotes obesity.)

Anyway, as Reuters points out, the geography of the oil analysts is bad if they think a Turkish-Kurdish clash would have much effect on oil. Kirkuk has only been exporting about 300,000 barrels of petroleum per day through the Turkish port of Ceyhan for the past 3 months, and at many points in recent years it has not been able to export anything. The Kirkuk exports fell to 200,000 on Tuesday because of PKK attacks in Anatolia and tensions with Turkey.

What is at stake in the exports from Kirkuk just is not great enough to account for the spike in petroleum futures prices, in a rational world. World production declined from about 86 million barrels a day in June, 2006, to 84.5 million barrels a day in June, 2007. (About one million barrels a day of this decline was owing to a Saudi reduction from producing 9.6 mn. b/day to 8.6 mn. b/day in that period).

Production increased to 85 mn. b/d in September. So during summer of 2007 the world's producers put on the market five times as much petroleum & other liquid fuel as was lost on Tuesday from Kirkuk. Even if Kirkuk exports were shut down, the world daily production would still be a above what it was just last June, when prices were not nearly as high.

It may be that analysts are afraid that a Turkish incursion into Iraq will somehow bring in other regional players, roiling Persian Gulf production. But Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran are in fact unlikely to get involved in a Turkish-Kurdish conflict. They are far to the south and except for Iran, don't have Turks or Kurds. Even if Iran intervened, and even if Iranian Kurdistan was thrown into turmoil, that would not affect Iranian oil production, which is mainly down south at Ahvaz. Sunni-Shiite battles among Arabs in Baghdad are far more dangerous to the stability of the Gulf than the situation in Anatolia.

So the price spike just seems to me driven by unfounded speculation if it is as advertised. If there is increased demand or instability elsewhere in the market, that is something different. But that is not what the news reports are saying.

What is clear is that Dick Cheney's desperate bid to grab Iraq for US petroleum corporations and for proprietary contracts to supply the US is backfiring big time. Instead of reducing the importance of Saudi Arabia, Cheney and the Neocons have magnified it. Instead of bringing online a big new supplier (Iraq) they have actually reduced the average production from Iraq as compared to the days of the UN sanctions on Saddam! Instead of assuring the US position as a superpower by assuring it special access to Gulf petroleum through military means, Cheney and his friends have destabilized the key energy-producing regions of the world and are driving some producers to deliberately seek proprietary contracts with China s so as to avoid over-dependence on an overbearing US that openly announces it would like to overthrow their governments. (I'm thinking of Venezuela here; with tweaking the same thing could be said of Iran).

Cheney's militarism is too blunt an instrument for the delicate job of assuring US energy security. Nearly $90 a barrel is not security for us-- it is a threat to our economy. Prices may not stay this high all that long in the short term, since primary commodity markets to fluctuate. But as the peak oil people point out, no new big fields have been found or exploited for a very long time, and demand from China, India and elsewhere is growing rapidly. It is going to be an expensive or cold winter for a lot of Americans. It likely won't be the last. Courtesy in some part, the short-sighted and counter-productive policies of one of the country's most notorious traitors, Richard Bruce Cheney.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Guest Op-Ed: PKK Terrorism Undermines US Policy in Middle East

An informed observer writes anonymously:

'“With our understanding of the worries of the Turkish friends, we are ready to undertake urgent negotiations with senior Turkish officials to discuss all points of disagreement,” he said. (NYT)

The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Authority (KRG) is not a party to the “negotiations” because they are not a state Turkey recognizes.

The Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), under US law, is a “terrorist organization.” The Mahdi Army and split-ups and spin-offs (terms derived from the US Internal Revenue Code) are not “terrorist organizations.” The US military is attacking the Mahdi Army, but not the PKK.

The PJak [the Kurdish guerrillas from Iranian Kurdistan, based in Iraq] is not a “terrorist organization,” but consideration is being given to designating the Qods Force or the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps a “terrorist organization.”

A “terrorist organization” attacks civilians in order to achieve a political objective by inducing political decision-makers – affected by public opinion arising from civilian deaths – to change their policies.

Attacks against military forces are – by definition – not “terrorist acts.” They are “acts of war.”

The PKK, during the past two weeks, has committed both “terrorist acts” and “acts of war,” except that, not being a state, they cannot be deemed to have committed acts of war.

Turkey’s General Staff is not interested in “negotiations,” they are interested in actions which would eliminate the PKK as a threat to Turkey’s national security. The “Bush Doctrine” of preemption – applied to justify the invasion of Iraq even although there was no “armed attack” or “imminent threat,” and notwithstanding that no such attack could be predicted on the basis of facts upon which all relevant parties could agree – can be applied without controversy (except by the objections of the KRG) to justify an Iraq incursion by Turkey’s Army.

Will the Maliki Government or the US Government commit do doing anything about the PKK? The Security Council mandate requires the US Government to contribute to establishing and maintaining law and order. Both the PKK and Turkey’s Army, if it made an incursion into Iraq, would be breaching law and order by their activities in Iraq. The responsibility to do something about the activities of the PKK is within the jurisdiction of both the MNF-I and the Iraq Government. Determining which government takes precedence depends upon whether the Iraqi Security Forces are “ready” to assume the responsibility. A state of readiness to accept the responsibility cannot be determined without the consent of the US Government. The three Provinces comprising the Kurdistan Regional Government’s territory have been determined to be within the area of responsibility of the Iraq Government (they have been “handed over” by the MNF-I [Multinational Forces]).

If anything is to be done about the PKK, only the Iraq Government has the formal responsibility to do whatever it is. The US Government should have nothing to do with it. In the past, the US Government would have had over-riding influence with respect to the matters being discussed. The failure to obtain from Turkey’s government transit rights for the 4th Infantry Division was a “tipping point” in the standing, credibility, power and influence of the US Government in the Middle East. It has yet to be determined what, if anything, the US Government does to “force” (the term used in the Saudi Council of Ministers resolution with respect to the establishment of the Peace and Security Committee, now displaced by Quartet Representative Blair) the Government of Israel to make commitments that would satisfy those who are yet to determine whether or not they will attend the November Conference.

That decision by the US Government will be the ultimate defining “tipping point.” The Iraq Government has no power or influence with respect to that decision. There will be an effective November Conference only if the relevant parties have agreed in advance on what should be done at the Conference. That is customary procedure for major international conferences. It is deemed to be “mysterious” in this case.

The Iraq Government is “sovereign” or not “sovereign,” depending upon which issue is being discussed. With respect to the PKK, the Iraq Government should have the jurisdiction and power to make the final decision. The jurisdiction and power should be exercised by the Iraqi Army (and National Police) taking “all necessary measures” to eliminate the PKK. That probably will not happen because the US Government will not endorse or even permit the actions to be taken. There are factions, even within the White House, in favor of restructuring the National Police completely or leaving it as it is. The latter course would be “conservative,” the former “radical.” The US Government must (should) make up its mind. As matters stand, its designations of who is a “terrorist organization” require one result, but its policies are inconsistent. If the “rule of law” is the standard, the MNF-I would cease its attacks against the Sadr Movement (and split-ups and spin-offs) and undertake “all necessary measures” against the PKK in Iraq. Who should determine who is and is not a member of the Mahdi Army? Obviously, Muqtada al-Sadr.

The problem is not “complexity.” The problem is US Government ambivalence. The Bush Administration is ambivalent notwithstanding the clear indication of the will of a majority of Americans expressed in public opinion polls. Which of the US and Iraq Governments, if either of them, will act in accordance with the principle of democracy and the rule of law? The decisive factor appears to be the national security interests of the State of Israel and the Republic of Iraq, in that order. Except for its military presence in Iraq, strictly and accurately construed and applied, the US has no “national security interests” in Iraq or Palestine-Israel. The absence of a “national security interest,” instead of leading to a complete recusal, permits flexibility in determining what is to be done by both Republicans and Democrats. Messrs Hagel, Warner and others are retiring, unable to “stay the course” with the nonsense reflected by the analysis set forth above. No one is loudly blaming them, all implicitly recognizing the nonsense.

It used to be a sign of “sophistication” to cut through nonsense to an ultimate “reality.” In the Internet Era, post-September 11, everyone is sophisticated. Yet the bottom line result is not different. Plus ca change …

As President Putin said in his “seminal” Munich speech, the way to go forward is to go back to the UN Charter.

There is a change. The only country with a clear policy, applied consistently, is the People's Republic of China. The PRC will prevail in applying “the rule of law.” Which comes first, the political or economic component? The political component comes first, except in the case of the PRC. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iran and Afghanistan

At the Global Affairs blog, Farideh Farhi weighs in on Iranian human rights activist Emadeddin Baghi. She suggests that "it also suggests a shift of approach by Ahmadinejad’s paranoid government from the harassment of well-known human rights activists to their arrest."

Barnett Rubin weighs in on reports of the Afghanistan government negotiating with the Taliban.

And check out David Morse on Sudan at Tomdispatch.com.

Also, Shahid Buttar on Musharraf and Pakistan.

See also Edwin Moise, Iraq Wars Bibliography-- a useful research tool.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Polish Base Attacked by Shiites Harthiya Bombing in Baghdad kills 4, wounds 25

Shiite militiamen rained mortar shells on the Polish base at Diwaniya on Monday, and the fighting that thus broke out left 4 civilians, 3 gunmen, and at least 5 Iraqi children dead, along with 28 wounded. 15 houses were also partially destroyed in the fighting. The Polish ambassador was targeted, recently, as well. The recent attacks on Polish personnel in Iraq were explained on Monday by the claims put forward by two obscure Shiite groups. Likely they are offshoots of the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadrists have defied Muqtada in Diwaniya by fighting the police of the city, who are largely recruited from the ranks of the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq of the al-Hakim family. The two have had several major battles. The 900 Polish troops in Qadisiya Province, of which Diwaniya is the capital, support the elected provincial government, i.e. implicitly they support the Badr Corps and al-Hakim. So the rogue Sadrists of Diwaniya would have every incentive to try to get the Poles out of their province, so as to deny Badr this edge. The Shiites appealed to Polish resentment of Soviet occupation, saying, ' "We know you were under occupation and how much you suffered, remember how much you suffered."

I don't know, though, that human beings work that way. Some of the recently occupied might get a kick out of occupying someone else, and so restoring their sense of manhood.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that a curfew has been imposed on Diwaniya until further notice. Eyewitnesses said that the officially announced number of casualties was extremely low, and they were sure many more people had been killed in the fighting.

Reuters reports civil war violence for Monday

' BAGHDAD - A suicide car bomb killed four people and wounded 25 others, most of them women and children, outside a park in al-Harthiya district in western Baghdad, police said.

NEAR BALAD - A suicide car bomb killed six members of a tribal police unit aligned to the U.S. military in an attack on a checkpoint near Balad, 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

RAMADI - Police said they found three bodies with gunshot wounds and signs of torture in Ramadi, 110 km (68 miles) west of Baghdad.

KIRKUK - A roadside bomb wounded four people in central Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

MOSUL - Police said they found two bodies shot and bound in the northern city of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad. One of them was a member of the Mosul city council. . . '

McClatchy adds that police found 5 bodies in Baghdad on Monday, and that guerrillas killed three employees of a newspaper in the Sunni Arab Salahuddin province. Another man was killed in Basra after being kidnapped.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Close: Israeli Intelligence behind Syria Strike not Persuasive

The NYT has been pushing the story that the Israeli air strike on Syria on September 6 came in response to intelligence that Syria was building a nuclear reactor at the site with clandestine North Korean help. There are reasons to question the accuracy of the Israeli story, which at some points has included allegations that there was evidence of enriched nuclear material at the site; such material could only be produced at the end of a long research and construction project, not at the beginning. The Israelis are trigger-happy and their intelligence on the Arab world is most often sloppy (the then head of Mossad is still insisting that Iraq had WMD), so one cannot assume there was anything to their apprehensions. In the absence of any inspection of the bombed site, one cannot assume there wasn't, either. Some analysts think the site was just run of the mill anti-aircraft batteries newly bought from the Russians. The strike probably killed the November peace process summit that Condi Rice had been working toward; Syria says it won't attend.

Retired CIA analyst of Arab affairs Ray Close tells us what he thinks about it all:

"This is my Monday morning (speculative) analysis of the mysterious Israeli air attack on Syria on September 6, 2007 . . :

1. The Israelis offered us intelligence that Syria is beginning to develop a nuclear capability based on North Korean technology. They urged the US to cooperate with them in mounting a military attack to destroy the Syrian site. The advantages of this action, as presented to the Bush administration with great urgency by the Israelis, would be:

a. To preempt a new and dangerous violation of Israeli and American proliferation red lines before the Syrian program gets too far along (citing the Iranian experience for justification);

b. To intimidate and embarrass Syria; throw a scare into Iran; and restore Israel's deterrence credibility. (The historic examples of dramatically successful and awe-inspiring Israeli operations at Entebbe and Osirak, among others, still have great psychological and emotional impact.)

2. The more cautious and thoughtful members of the Bush administration opposed offering Israel the full participatory collaboration of the United States on the grounds that:

a. The Israeli intelligence in this case was not entirely persuasive, recalling instances of flawed intelligence of similar origin that misinformed some key US actions before and during the Iraq war;

b. If covert US-Israeli collaboration in this operation (technically an act of war) were actually proffered, this would eventually become known. The accuracy and authenticity of the Israeli intelligence on which the operational decision was justified would (in the absence of more credible supporting evidence from independent US sources), become the subject of heated public debate all over the world, and opponents of the Bush administration would argue with potentially devastating effect that this was final proof that Bush neocons have continually (in fact, going back many years) been duped by deliberate Israeli disinformation operations aimed at scaring America into adopting a policy of more overt and aggressive military cooperation with Israel;

c. Even if the Israeli intelligence were finally revealed to contain some credible evidence of Syria's long-range ambitions to obtain nuclear weapons and of North Korea's culpability in abetting those plans, the revelation of US-Israeli covert military collaboration against Syria at this critical time would, over the short term, endanger George W. Bush’s desperate hopes of achieving some dramatic diplomatic successes before the end of his administration ---- most importantly with respect to North Korea and next month's planned Middle East Peace talks here in the US.

3. Ongoing heated arguments within the administration over whether or not to coordinate US and Israeli actions and reactions in this instance have been won, at least temporarily, by the side that gives higher priority to preserving and sustaining the diplomatic efforts, on the grounds that short-term progress in both the North Korean and Israeli-Palestinian situations should trump, at least for the time being, the acknowledged high value also attached to the more aggressive alternative measures urgently and vigorously advocated by the Olmert government in Israel and by Israel’s supporters here in the United States.

4. There are undoubtedly some Democratic notables, in key Congressional positions of leadership and on the electoral hustings, who have been officially briefed (or who have been independently informed by interested third parties) of the whole set of considerations outlined above, and who have, for reasons best known to themselves, decided to support the more cautious objective of keeping this potentially explosive issue under wraps for as long as possible. (I don't discount at all the possibility that some support, probably in the form of technical intelligence, was nevertheless indeed provided to the Israeli planners by the US before or during the bombing operation. That just qualifies as a small skeleton in the closet compared to the backlash we would suffer for active operational collaboration in such an undertaking.)

Personally, I believe that the most persuasive reason for studied silence on this subject, on the part of both Republicans and Democrats, is the reluctance (call it fear) of individual politicians that they might be put in a position of appearing to criticize Israel for poor judgment (or even deliberate deception), and thereby appearing to oppose intimate collaboration with Israel (yes, even in acts of illegitimate preemptive military action) against "supporters of terrorism".

I would add the following personal comments to my analysis of the situation:

Having dealt with Arabs for more than fifty years now, often in situations very similar to this one,I have no trouble understanding why the Syrian reaction to the Israeli bombing attack last month has been carefully muted. Asad cannot afford a military confrontation with Israel at this time. His air force and army could be effectively wiped out by the IDF in a few hours. And he has no desire to broadcast the fact that his air defense forces (some of which, I am told, consist of very expensive new ground-to-air rocketry purchased from Russia but not yet operational) were impotent to respond in the face of such a deep and brazen Israeli penetration of the Syrian motherland. It would be plainly foolhardy for the Syrians to attempt confrontation with the IDF when their military establishment is in such a parlous state as it is today. I therefore find it perfectly understandable that Asad has chosen not to fly off the handle over this incident, and why his Arab neighbors and supposed brothers in arms have likewise decided that the better part of valor is to pretend they haven't noticed.

I recall in the period right after the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when I was in liaison with the Saudis, that the Israeli Air Force used to make frequent very low level runs over the Saudi airbase at Tobuk, in the northern part of the country. As they skimmed the "deck", they would drop empty fuel tanks on the runways, near where the Saudi fighter planes were lined up, just to remind those on the ground that the empty tanks could very easily have been 500-pound bombs. It was nothing more than an arrogant demonstration of contempt for Saudi impotence. It worked. The RSAF never fired a shot, and never scrambled a single interceptor. They would complain to me, and I would duly forward their protests to CIA HQS. We never got even a polite acknowledgement back from the Israelis, who, in their arrogance, were no doubt cynically amused. So I can easily imagine Bashar al-Asad's decision to play this current incident in a very low key! It is not a mark of cowardice, but of realism and prudence.

Similarly, I recall when Prince Fahd bin Abdal Aziz called me to a meeting very late one evening in the early days of the 1973 war and asked me to send an urgent personal message from him to Richard Nixon informing the president that he had felt obliged to contribute a brigade of Saudi troops to the Golan front to support the Syrian offensive there, but that he had personally instructed the commander of the unit not to fire a single shot. That, Fahd told me with considerable emotion and obvious sincerity, was his solemn promise to his American friend. Again, prudence, wisdom, and desire to maintain a traditional and mutually valuable relationship --- motives that were not, I regret to say, received in Washington with the respect and appreciation that they deserved. "

-Ray Close
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkey Shells Iraqi Kurds; Pilgrims Bombed in Baghdad; Ammar Visits Sheikhs of al-Anbar; Muqtada Condemns Soft Partition;

The sectarian civil war in Iraq left dozens of persons dead and wounded on Sunday. One major bombing targeted Shiite pilgrims in Baghdad heading to the shrine of Kadhimiya, in the north of the capital, killing 10 persons in a minibus, including women and children, and wounding two dozen. There were other bombings and firefights, including near Ramadi.

One US soldier was killed and three were wounded in a roadside bombing in Baghdad. There were bombings or clashes in Kirkuk and Iskandariya. In Haswa, Shiite Mahdi Army militiamen clashed with Sunnis. Bodies were found near Baqubah.

Turkey shelled Iraqi Kurdish villages along the two countries' mutual border on Sunday, saying it was a reprisal for PKK radical guerrilla attacks on Turkish troops last week.

The severe tensions between Turkey and the PKK and its Iraqi Kurdish sponsors such as Masoud Barzani helped put petroleum prices up near $84 a barrel. The declining dollar contributed to the high price. Bush's policies are hurting millions around the world; it is incredible how much damage one person can do when the Peter Principle begins operating full time.

Meanwhile, Turkish chief of staff Gen. Yasar Buyukanit warned that US relations with Turkey could be irreparably damaged if the US Congress passes the proposed resolution condemning Turkey for genocide against the Armenians in 1915-1916.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has a lot of wealthy Armenian-Americans in her district, pledged to push the resolution through the House.

Turkey retaliated against France after its parliament acted similarly by cutting off military cooperation with Paris. If Turkey did that to the US, Washington would lose access to Incirlik Air Base, through which 70% of the materiel shipped to US troops in Iraq goes. The US ability to manage the aftermath of its likely withdrawal from Iraq would also be damaged if it lost Incirlik.

The Iraqi government on Sunday demanded that the Blackwater security firm, which has juicy contracts from the State Department, leave Iraq within 6 months.

Young Shiite leader Ammar al-Hakim acting head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, visited Ramadi in Sunni al-Anbar province on Sunday, consulting with Ahmad Abu Rishah, the head of the Awakening Council or tribal militia there. Abu Rishah and his late brother Sattar have been battling Salafi fundamentalists and foreign jihadis in the province. Ammar brought along Hadi al-Amiri, the head of the Badr Corps, ISCI's paramilitary, which was trained in Iran by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. Many Sunnis believe that Badr has been involved in death squad activity against Sunnis, but apparently the pitch was that both the Awakening group and Badr are actually pitted against "al-Qaeda" (i.e. the Salafi Jihadis). Ammar again called for the formation of provincial confederacies (melding provinces together into larger regional authorities), a plan to which most Sunni Arabs are opposed.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Sunni Arab sheikhs in Abu Risha's Awakening Council said that they were resisting American and Iraqi pressure to declare a Western [Sunni Arab] Regional Authority or provincial confederacy. [Presumably it would encompass al-Anbar, Salahuddin and Ninevah provinces, all with strong Sunni majorities].

Sunni Arab guerrillas struck even while Abu Rishah and al-Hakim were consulting. Reuters says, "Police major Waheed Dulaimi and four members of his family were killed in a suicide car bomb attack on his house in the town of Baghdadi northwest of Ramadi in western Anbar province, police said. Eight other people were wounded."

Ammar's rival Muqtada al-Sadr, also a cleric in his mid-30s, spoke out against the al-Hakims' plans for a soft partition of Iraq on Sunday, slamming the idea of provincial confederacies under a federal government. Ironically, his Mahdi Army militiamen were fighting Sunni Arabs in al-Haswa while the Badr Corps commander was having tea with them in Ramadi. The Sadrists much more often deploy a rhetoric of pan-Islam than do ISCI and the Badr Corps, but the Mahdi Army has been if anything more involved in death squad activity against Sunnis than its rival, Badr.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Sermons this Week

The USG Open Source Center rounds up this week's sermons at major mosques, mostly Shiite, in Iraq. The comments focus on the peace agreement between Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr, whose militias had been fighting with one another; on the danger posed by the Sunni tribal militias called 'Awakening Councils;' on the recent statements of Sunni hardliner Harith al-Dhari calling for dialogue with 'al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia; and on the need for parliament to rein in the US contractors in Iraq, such as Blackwater.

'Round-up of Iraqi Friday Sermons 12 Oct
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Sunday, October 14, 2007

Major Iraqi television channels . . . are observed on 12 October to carry the following reports on Friday sermons

Within its 1800 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic - government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network - is observed to carry the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir, imam and preacher of Friday sermon at the Buratha Mosque, called on the Iraqi Government to sign a security document with the United States in order to define the work of the US forces and the protection companies in Iraq so that the tragic operations, which claim the lives of scores of innocent citizens, will not recur, as happened in Al-Nusur Square and other areas."

The report adds: "Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque and member of the Council of Representatives for the Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC) [United Iraqi Alliance], began his Friday sermon today by commenting on the Baghdad security file, specifically the issue of arming some tribes and groups on the pretext of expelling Al-Qa'ida (from their areas). He warned against factionalizing these militias, as he put it. At the same time, he called for putting these groups under the command of the security forces."

Al-Saghir says: "At the time, we said that one of the shortcomings of the security activity is that the popular effort was not used. The people were not allowed to protect themselves by themselves. This theory was rejected. They said that there are some problems in it and we accepted this. However, after this, we found out that this theory that was rejected was replaced by a more serious one. There are groups that include suspects and terrorists from one sect, from one group, and from various areas that are supplied with arms stronger than those of the security forces. Despite this, it is said that this is the awakening. Any security plan on recruiting these people should be balanced and equitable, and those volunteers should be put under the command of the security forces in the area."

The report says: "In light of the talk about the security file, Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir rejected the action of the US forces in the Jizan al-Imam area, where 25 citizens were killed. He called on the US forces to verify any information they receive. He urged the government to put an end to this by signing a security agreement with the United States."

Al-Saghir says: "These militias, which were called the awakening groups, tempted the US forces into shelling this area intensively. I am astonished at the fact that such things can deceive such a superpower. At a time when it formed an investigation committee into the issue of the Blackwater Company, the Australian security company, or the Jizan al-Imam issue, the Iraqi Government should pay attention to the fact that these issues (word indistinct). It should seek a security agreement. It should define a security agreement with the multinational forces to regulate the powers and actions of this force."

The report adds: "The imam of the Buratha Mosque said that the US forces have responded to the Iraqi Government's request on dissolving the awakening groups in some of the Baghdad areas, and that these groups will be reorganized based on pluralism."

The report says: "Shaykh Ala Abd-al-Wahhab, imam and preacher of the Martyr Yusuf al-Hassan Mosque in Basra, stressed the unity and solidarity of the Iraqi people at all times. In a Friday sermon, Shaykh Ala said it is impossible to discriminate among the groups of the one people who have been living in brotherhood and amity for hundreds of years."

Shaykh Abd-al-Wahhab says: "We should bolster our unity, close our ranks, and live as brothers who love each other." . . .


Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the [Shiite] Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, carries the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Friday preachers stressed the importance of the return of (Abd-al-Aziz) al-Hakim to the homeland at this time in particular when the country is passing through difficult circumstances and facing big challenges, especially since Al-Hakim enjoys balance and wisdom in making decisions. Other preachers praised the agreement that was signed by His Eminence Al-Sayyid al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr. They described it as a great step toward protecting the higher national and Islamic interests, supporting the nation, and taking it to the safety shore."

Shaykh Muhammad al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "The security ministries, the Defense Ministry and the Interior Ministry, should give priority to some areas to which the displaced families return. Al-Saydiyah is a mixed area where there are Sunnis and Shiites. The US forces have armed more than 3,000 persons in Al-Saydiyah and given them licenses and salaries under the slogan of awakening to defend the area. They are all affiliated with one sect."

The report adds: "The religious weight of Al-Najaf has qualified it to pinpoint the areas of disorder and strength in any signed agreement. Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji said that the recent agreement between Al-Hakim and Al-Sadr puts the Iraqi house in order and foils attempts to foment sedition between the two sides."

Shaykh Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji, imam and preacher of the Al-Najaf Friday sermon, says: "The formation of joint committees to solve points of disagreement is an important step that took place this week between the components of the Shiite house. This pleases us. This means that the Shiite house and the Iraqi leaders always seek to achieve the unity of the Shiite house. We believe that the fatal blow to us lies in our division."

The report says: "Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i, imam and preacher of the Karbala Friday sermon, said that the only way out for the Iraqis is to live as sons of the one homeland. On the occasion of the blessed Id al-Fitr, Al-Karbala'i urged the people and officials to use the Id as an occasion to instill hope and to give precedence to the interests of the country over all narrow factional interests. Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i called for casting away sectarian convulsions and conflicts and resorting to the language of amity and unity among the segments of the Iraqi society in order to overcome the Iraqi people's crises. Al-Karbala'i called for not allowing the regional and international forces to interfere in Iraq's affairs or implementing their special agendas in the Iraqi arena at the expense of the people." . .

The channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program at 2110 GMT, as follows:

Shaykh Muhammad al-Haydari says: "Reports and some international organizations said that the number of the displaced in Iraq is more than 2 million, and the number of those who left Iraq is also 2 million. This is a very large number."

He urges the Iraqi Government and its ministries to "support the displaced." He also urges the people to "support their brothers who were displaced."

Shaykh Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji, imam and preacher of the Al-Najaf Friday sermon, says: "The formation of joint committees to solve points of disagreement is an important step that took place this week between the components of the Shiite house. This pleases us. This means that the Shiite house and the Iraqi leaders always seek to achieve the unity of the Shiite house. We believe that the fatal blow to us lies in our division. If we are united we will not be harmed. We praise God Almighty on this important achievement. We pray to God to bless this step on the path of reinforcing the Shiite house for which the others are lying in wait in order to destroy this house, which represents the majority."

Al-Qabbanji adds: "In a way, the UIC represents the Shiite house. It represents the political authority of the Shiite component in Iraq."

He says: "This man, Shaykh Harith al-Dari should ask himself how he resorts to Al-Qa'ida. The whole world is unanimous that Al-Qa'ida is a terrorist organization. I am not saying only the Shiites or Iraqis consider it as such, but the whole world is unanimous that Al-Qa'ida is a terrorist organization. It has carried out operations of killing and bombings all over the world. Neither the Sunnis nor the Shiites accept it. Only the terrorist groups accept it. The recent thing is that Harith al-Dari said this in the name of the Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS), and we will verify later which Muslims it represents. The Sunnis in Iraq said that they do not support him or his statements, and Al-Tawafuq (Accord) Front, which represents the Sunnis in Iraq, said that neither Al-Dari nor his statements represent them. He is a man who is outside Iraq and who does not represent anything in Iraq. Despite this, he says I am the secretary general of the AMS. The Sunnis, Shiites, and all Iraqis have nothing to do with the actions of these groups."

Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir says: "We say that security in Baghdad has improved in a significant way. Every one can feel this."

Commenting on the issue of the "awakening" groups, Al-Saghir says: "The task of maintaining security should take place by a national force that seeks to protect security away from favoring this or that sect. It should implement the law away from this or that sect or group." He adds: "I am not speaking about any particular militia. All the militias that carry arms without the permission of the state are rejected. They are a plague that harms any country."

Shaykh Hasan al-Zamili, imam and preacher of the Al-Diwaniyah Friday sermon, praises the agreement that was signed by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr. He says that "at this stage, this document is extremely important, and a strong blow dealt to the hypocrites who exercise political hypocrisy, and here I am addressing them, and to the enemies, opportunists, Ba'thists, and terrorists."

Commenting on Harith al-Dari's statements on Al-Qa'ida, Al-Zamili says that this man "was assigned a specific role in fomenting sedition and conflict among the sons of the one entity, homeland, and nation." He adds: "He has been exposed. He defends Al-Qa'ida, the terrorists, and the takfiris (those who hold other Muslims to be infidel) who killed us. Therefore, we praise God Almighty and call on the sons of the people to unite in order to foil the plans of enemies, those who are lying in wait for us, and the conspirators; rebuild Iraq in the service of the wronged people; and achieve security and stability." '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

2 US Soldiers Killed Ammar Calls for ultimate US Withdrawal Sistani Aide Calls for Laws to Rein in contractor, US military lawlessnes

The killing of two US soldiers and the wounding of 5 more in a mortar attack were reported on Saturday.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that Abdul Aziz al-Hakim (leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq) returned to Baghdad from chemotherapy in Iran and was welcomed by a big crowd of admirers at his home in south Baghdad after Eid prayers.

His son, Ammar al-Hakim, who has been acting head of ISCI in his father's absence, preached a sermon in which he pledged to work against enduring US bases in Iraq. (On December 4, 2006, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim stood next to Bush in the Rose Garden and asked for US troops to remain in Iraq, so this pronouncement seems to be the beginnings of a reversal). Al-Hakim also argued for forging ahead with a Shiite provincial confederation in the south. He argued for a complete return of sovereignty to Iraq, according to AFP.

You have to wonder whether the recent Iran-brokered pact between al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr, plus the new ISCI / Sistani consensus on reining in the US military and ultimately pushing it out altogether are a sign of new Iranian and Iraqi Shiite strategizing about the future. It also seems to me that the constant US drumbeat against Iran may have alarmed the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which is an Iranian client and which needs Iranian money and support to maintain its political position in Iraq. Iran is therefore working to position ISCI as anti-Occupation over the medium to long run, and as responsible and orderly (thus the pact with Sadr.)

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the nearing of the date for Parliament to vote on the holding of provincial elections has provoked rivalries and tensions in the 9 southern provinces that are mostly Shiite. Seven of the nine (which include Baghdad) are dominated by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), and therefore its political enemies are attempting to discredit its candidates. One tactic has been to bring into question the educational attainments of leading ISCI politicians. For instance, it is being charged by his enemies that Salim al-Muslimawi, the governor of Babil province just south of Baghdad, only has a fifth grade education but claimed he graduated from some Iranian institute that (on investigation) has no record of his having ever been there. Al-Muslimawi is from the Badr Organization, the paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. His political opponents went to Iran, where he had lived for 15 years, to investigate his supposed education there. (It is ironic that the US government is currently waging a campaign against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, but is turning southern Iraq over to groups like the Badr Corps, which was trained by . . . the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.) The Bureau of Public Probity in Najaf announced that it was demanding from all members of that province's provincial council proof that their educational diplomas were real.

I have trouble taking diplomagate seriously (unless the electoral commission really can use it to disqualify candidates). But it would be exciting if in fact provincial elections were scheduled in the near future, since many provinces have unrepresentative governments-- a situation that retards any peace process.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Karbala'i: Parliament Must regulate Security Firms, US Military

The USG Open Source Center translates or paraphrases reports in the Iraqi press on the sermon of Abdul Mahdi al-Karbala'i, the representative in the holy city of Karbala of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, calling for parliament to regulate foreign security firms and 'occupation forces' (i.e. the US military) operating in the country. Al-Karbala'is sermons are widely viewed as representing the views of Sistani, obedience to whom pious Shiites view as obligatory.

'Iraq: Sh'ite Shaykh Says Deputies Shoud Debate Issue of 'Foreign Security' Firms
Iraq -- OSC Report
Sunday, October 14, 2007

Al-Sistani's representative in Karbala Urges Iraqi Parliament to Regulate Operations of Foreign Security Firms

" Aswat al-Iraq " (The Voices of Iraq) - available at www. aswataliraq. info and calling itself in English "The Independent News Agency" - carries a Karbala-datelined report on 12 October on the Friday sermon delivered by Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i, the representative of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. The report reads as follows:

"On Friday, the representative of religious authority Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani called on the Iraqi House of Representatives to debate the issue of the foreign security companies operating in Iraq and to issue a resolution that would prevent the recurrence of the incident that took place in the Al-Nusur (The Eagles) Square in Baghdad last month. He also prayed that the Id (al-Fitr) would be an opportunity for dialogue and harmony among the Iraqi political leaders and an occasion to give precedence to the national interests. In the Friday prayer in the Al-Husayni Mosque, Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i, said, 'The disdain shown to the lives of the citizens by the security companies and the occupation forces has reached a level on which we cannot remain silent'. He added, 'The security companies are killing citizens and the occupation forces are attacking families in their villages as happened in the village of Al-Jizani in the district of Al-Khalis'. Last week, the US forces bombed the village of Al-Jizani in Diyala where scores of villagers were killed or wounded. Al-Karbala'i went on to say: 'We have asked the citizens from Diyala or from Baghdad to raise this issue from off the Friday pulpit'. He pointed out, 'In response to this call, we ask the Iraqi House of Representatives to raise and debate the issue of the security companies and the occupation forces in order to issue resolutions that protect and safeguard Iraqi blood and that do not allow such incidents to recur because they increase the list of bereaved orphans and widows in Iraq'. The Blackwater Company opened indiscriminate fire at the citizens in the Al-Nusur Square last week (date as published), killing more than 21 citizens and wounding dozens more. The families of the victims have filed a complaint in the United States seeking compensation.

"On the occasion of the blessed Id al-Fitr, the Karbala Friday imam urged the officials in Iraq to use the Id 'as an occasion to instill hope and to give precedence to the interests of the country over all narrow factional interests, and to cast away sectarian convulsions and conflicts'. He added, 'Everybody one should resort to the language of amity and should sit at the dialogue table in order to reach acceptable formulas that would enable the country to overcome its crises and not allow the regional forces to do whatever they wish and not to permit the international sides with personal agendas at the expense of the people'. On the occasion of Id al-Fitr, Al-Karbala'i called on the Iraqi people 'to spurn anything that divides their ranks and to demonstrate sincerity so that all the sects and faiths could co-exist in harmony and cohesion in order to restore security and progress in the country'. He added, 'This would happen when every sector in society, every sect, and every ethnic group respects the other sects and ethnic groups in order to enjoy a decent life and respect for blood, property, and honor'. Shaykh Al-Karbala'i went on to say, 'The Id is the best opportunity to open the hearts and remove feelings of hatred and sedition. We should plant love and put aside weapons because that would be a loss to everyone even if that requires some concessions because the people can no longer bear the blood hemorrhage'".

Buratha News Agency, WWW- Text in Arabic on 12 October carries a report headlined "Al-Karbala'i calls on the Chamber of Deputies to meet and take decisions that would prevent the excesses of the private foreign security firms". Following is the text of the report:

"Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i, the representative of the supreme religious authority in Karbala, has called on the political blocs in the government 'to give precedence to the public interests of the Iraqi people over factional and party interests' of these blocs. He also called on them not to give a chance to the international and regional forces to implement their political agendas at the expense of the interests of the Iraqi people. This came in his second sermon during Friday prayers on 29 Ramadan 1428 Hegira corresponding to 12 October 1007 in the Holy Al-Husayni Mosque. Al-Karbala'i also called on the Iraqi people "to unify their ranks and their sects, ethnic groups, and religions because there is no salvation for them from the destruction, deficient security, and conspiracies against them unless they are in harmony and amity'. He called on them 'to respect the ethnic groups, sects, religions, and rights of the other ethnic groups, sects, and religions, and especially to respect blood, honor, and property that are being violated every day'. Shaykh Al-Karbala'i called on the Iraqis "to renounce the language of violence and arms as a means to get their rights instead of the language of dialogue'. He added, 'Dialogue is the only way to solve problems that will require everyone to make concessions on part of their demands in order to reach final results as soon as possible'.

"The representative of the supreme religious authority discussed the issue of the private security companies operating in Iraq, saying, 'The disdain for the blood and lives of Iraqis by these companies has reached a level that cannot be tolerated. Iraqi blood has become the cheapest commodity in existence. The latest incident was what took place in the village of Jizani al-Imam in the Province of Diyala when innocent women, children, and men were killed and were whole families were annihilated that had lost their sons due to the murders based on one's identity card by the terrorists'. He added, 'In response to the request by some brother members of the Diyala provincial council and some afflicted citizens there, we ask the House of Representatives to meet in order to debate the issues of the disdain shown by these companies to the lives of Iraqis and to take the necessary resolutions regarding this important matter that demonstrates contempt for the blood and the lives of Iraqis'. . . '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sanchez Attacks Iraq War Sistani Condemns Security Firms, Occupation Forces

Retired Gen. Rick Sanchez lambasted the Bush administration's Iraq War in a speech on Friday, as "a nightmare with no end in sight". Sanchez implied that former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld would have been court-martialled if he had been in the active duty military. The NYT reports him saying, '“There was been a glaring and unfortunate display of incompetent strategic leadership within our national leaders,” he said, adding later in his remarks that civilian officials have been “derelict in their duties” and guilty of a “lust for power.” ' Sanchez dismissed the current troop escalation ('surge') as highly unlikely to improve the situation in Iraq significantly, saying that the best the US can realistically hope to achieve is to stave off defeat.

To Sanchez's trenchant critique was added on Friday a fatwa from Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites. AFP says,

' "The foreign security companies working in Iraq belittle innocent Iraqi citizens," a statement from Karbalai said. "The occupying forces do the same in some of their operations, adding to the criminal acts of the takfiris (Sunni militants)." '

Sistani is said to be demanding legislation in parliament to hold the security companies accountable. In addition, this is the strongest condemnation I have seen by Sistani of the US military ('the occupying forces') and it may be a turning point.

Six Sunni Arab jihadi groups announced Friday that they had established a unified command. The six, comprising Iraq resistance groups, excluded 'al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia' and 'the Islamic State of Iraq' from their coalition.

Reuters reports violence in Iraq on Friday. Bombings in Baghdad and Kirkuk.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkish Press reaction to Armenian Resolution

The USG Open Source Center translates and summarizes Turkish press reaction to the US congressional resolution concerning the Armenian genocide.

'Turkey: Roundup of Press Reactions to House Resolution on Armenian Genocide
Highlights of reports and articles in the Turkish secular press about a resolution supporting allegations that Armenians were subjected to genocide by the Ottoman army in 1915 which was approved by the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs on 10 October
Turkey -- OSC Summary
Friday, October 12, 2007

Istanbul Milliyet (Internet version-WWW) in Turkish--centrist, mass appeal daily, one of the country's top circulation papers, owned by Aydin Dogan, head of the Dogan Media Group--carries a 600-word report entitled "Turkey's Bargaining Chips" which highlights possible actions that could be taken by Turkey in order to persuade the US House of Representatives not to ratify the resolution in a plenary session. According to diplomatic sources, an authorization bill which the Turkish Government intends to push through Parliament in order to send Turkish troops into Iraq can be used as an important bargaining chip.

In addition, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to tell the Bush Administration during his upcoming visit to the United States in November that cooperation between Turkey and the United States about Iraq and other issues could be seriously hurt if the resolution eventually clears the House of Representatives. According to the report, Turkey may also use other options such as imposing prohibitions and restrictions on US military activities in Incirlik air base, refusing a possible US request to use Mersin port during a troop pullout, preventing or restricting the use of Habur border crossing, refusing possible US requests to join peace-keeping operations, furthering political and economic ties with Iran, including the conclusion of an energy agreement which the United States strongly opposes, and disqualifying US companies vying for military contracts.

In a 400-word article entitled "The Armenian Resolution," Milliyet columnist Taha Akyol accuses Armenian nationalists of resorting to "the ugliest forms of dirty tricks such as using humanly and religious feelings for fueling hatred and vengeance, issuing threats, and bribing people." He says: "Various US presidents described the events that took place in 1915 as a 'mass massacre.' But, Armenian nationalist were not satisfied. Their primary objective in convincing parliaments to pass 'genocide' resolutions is to prepare the ground for making forcing Turkey to meet their political demands and to pay compensations. This is a political assault."

Pointing out that American politicians downplay angry reactions voiced in Turkey, Akyol concludes by saying: "We should show them that Ankara is not bluffing and American interests in the region and the Armenian State have started to suffer harm."

In a 400-word article entitled "Why did not the Strategic Card Work?" Milliyet columnist Sami Kohen says that efforts made by the Armenian lobby in the United States and their influence on the US Congress outweighed the strategic arguments of the Bush Administration. Ascribing the passage of the resolution to pressure put and tactics used by the Armenian lobby and distrust toward Turkey due to the rejection of a motion on Iraq in 2003, Kohen points out that there are signs indicating that Ankara intends to take concrete action rather than making statements in response. He comments: "The matter should be handled not emotionally, but by taking Turkey's interests from a broad perspective despite public outrage. In other words, steps to be taken should be effective and produce the intended results without causing much harm to as or severing basic external ties. Turkey is still able to use its 'strategic card' for that purpose."

In a 300-word article entitled "Incirlik Card," Milliyet columnist Derya Sazak says that the Turkish Government which, he notes, has cooperated with the United States in the past five years is in a state of shock. Sazak asserts that expansionist policies pursued by the United States in the Middle East has changed the situation. He says: "Today the United States has new allies. A process started in the US Congress about 'Armenian genocide' at time when Turkey was planning a cross-border operation in northern Iraq because of the PKK's presence there. The 'friendly and allied' United States scored the 'Armenian genocide' goal after Johnson's letter about Cyprus, the embargo, and the 'hood' incident in retaliation for the rejection of a motion on 1 March (2003) which were among the crises witnessed in recent past. What else should happen to prompt Ankara to close down Incirlik?"

Istanbul Hurriyet (Internet version-WWW) in Turkish--centre-right, mass appeal daily, country's top circulation paper, owned by Aydin Dogan, head of the Dogan Media Group--carries a 400-word editorial entitled "Blame Falls on us, not the US Congress" by Oktay Eksi who says that a propaganda campaign waged by the Armenian diaspora will attain its goal this time. Eksi points out that successive Turkish governments did not allocate sufficient resources and personnel in order to refute Armenian allegations and to conduct an aggressive campaign like Armenians. He cautions: "Unless our government realizes the gravity of the situation and takes action based on 'war logic' rather than making empty statements, we would miss the last opportunity and face a defeat."

In a 400-word article entitled "The Biggest Retaliation," Hurriyet columnist Ferai Tinc points out that retaliation threats issued by Turkey were ignored by US congressmen because they have lost their deterrent effect and turned into political tactics mainly targeting the Turkish public. Stressing that Turkey may resort to official retaliation, Tinc says: "I am not sure whether such official retaliation could be effective. But, I know that actions it has taken in Iraq, its indifference to the PKK's terror campaign, stopping its efforts in Cyprus, and the last resolution have irreparably tarnished the United States' image in the eyes of the Turkish public. In my view, retaliation in the form of a nation's judgment is the biggest, most effective, and lasting retaliation."

In a 350-word article entitled "We Lost our Nerves," Hurriyet columnist Tufan Turenc says that Turkey was shaken by what he describes as a second blow delivered by the United States at a time when the Turkish nation was grieving for soldiers killed by PKK guerillas. Turenc criticizes the government for not responding to insidious plots hatched against Turkey and says: "Even the United States did not take them seriously although they had obeyed and sworn allegiance to it. The Armenian resolution was approved amid a big round of applause from an Armenian audience. There is no doubt that genocide will be recognized by an overwhelming majority of the members of the House of Representatives. The Justice and Development Party could not cope with terrorism and the Armenian question."

Istanbul Sabah (Internet Version-WWW) in Turkish -- Center-right, mass appeal daily; under state receivership since April 2007 pending investigation into alleged wrongdoing by former owner Turgay Ciner -- carries a 400-word editorial entitled "Shackles" by Erdal Safak cautions that if a resolution supporting Armenian allegations of genocide will sooner or later ratified by the US Congress because Hillary Clinton who, he says, describes the events of 1915 as genocide and is a staunch supporter of Armenian claims will succeed US President Bush. Safak also says that Turkey actually drew unnecessary attention to Armenian allegations by resorting to retaliations against countries where resolutions about Armenian genocide were adopted by parliaments and showed that it was its Achilles' heel although it could have resolved the problem 15 years ago without much fuss.

Istanbul Vatan (Internet version-WWW)-- Center-right, mass appeal daily, published by a group of former Sabah columnists allegedly with financial backing from media tycoon Aydin Dogan --carries a 600-word article entitled "For the Sake of Justice" by Gungor Mengi who predicts that the resolution will not be ratified by the Senate and President Bush even if it clears the House of Representatives, adding that Turkey should devise a new strategy aimed at totally eliminating the possibility of the passage of a resolution about Armenian genocide as a result of a decrease in the United States' dependence on Turkey due to security considerations.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Who Lost Turkey?

Turkey has been the strongest ally that the United States has had in the Middle East since the end of WW II. The Marshall Plan started with Northern tier states like Turkey and Greece. Turkey joined NATO and was a key player in the American victory in the Cold War. As a secular government, Turkey stood against the rising tide of Muslim radicalism. To the extent that Turkey is moderating its long-term secular militancy, and moving toward fair elections, it may be providing a model for a moderate, democratic Middle East. Its economy is growing rapidly, foreign investment is in the billions. Turkey is in short, almost everything the US could have asked for in the Middle East.

But the Bush administration has, during the past five years, increasingly thrown away this asset, and now is in danger of losing a close and valued ally altogether. It is unclear what US interests are served by this repeated and profound damage inflicted by Washington on Turkey, or what Ankara ever did to us that we are treating them so horribly. (The dismissive treatment in some ways began when the US promised Turkey $1 bn in aid to offset the damage to its economy of the Gulf War in 1990-1991, but then Congress formally decided by the mid-1990s to renege on the pledge. No one has ever explained why we stiffed them.)

The threat of a Turkish hot pursuit of PKK guerrillas into Iraqi Kurdistan is starting to have an effect on Kurdistan's economy and stability. Inflation is high and some Turkish businesses that had won bids to operate in the Kurdistan Regional Authority (KRG) are going back home in fear of trouble. Getting banks to underwrite economic enterprises is getting harder, which could result in a slowdown for Iraqi Kurdistan. This area was the last in Iraq not to be hit hard by instability, but tensions are growing.

Imagine what things look like from a Turkish point of view. Remember that Turkey is a NATO ally, that it stood with the US during the Korean War (in which its troops fought), during the Cold War, and during Bush's war on terror. Turkey gives the US military facilities, including the Incirlik Air Force base, through which large amounts of materiel for the US forces in northern Iraq flows.

First, the Bush administration insisted on invading Iraq and overthrowing the secular Iraqi government. It thereby let the Salafi Sunni and the Shiite fundamentalist genies out of the bottle and created vast instability on the southeastern border. It would be as though a US ally had invaded Mexico and inadvertently unleashed a Marxist peasant rebellion against San Diego. Secular Turkey already felt itself menaced by the Shiite ayatollahs of Iran and by the rising Salafi and al-Qaeda trends, and the US made everything far worse.

Then, the US gave the Kurdistan Regional Authority control over the Kirkuk police force and unleashed Kurdish troops on the Turkmen city of Tal Afar. (The Turks look on Iraq's 800,000 Turkmen as little brethren, over whom they feel protective, and don't want them dominated by Kurds).

The Kurds promptly announced their aspiration of annexing 3 further provinces, or at least big swathes of them, including the oil province of Kirkuk, and including substantial Turkmen populations. Not only was that guaranteed to cause violence with the Arabs and Turkmen, but it would give Kurdistan a source of fabulous wealth with which it could hope to attract Kurds in neighboring countries to join it, a la German Unification after the fall of the Berlin Wall - except that this unification would dismember several other countries.

Then the Kurdistan Regional Authority gave safe haven to 3,000 to 5,000 Kurdish guerrillas from eastern Anatolia in Turkey who have been killing Turks and blowing up things, reviving violence that had subsided in the early zeroes. Despite the US military occupation of Iraq, Washington has done nothing to stop what Turkey sees as terrorists from going over the border into Turkey and killing Turks. Turkish intelligence is convinced that the camps in Iraqi Kurdistan are key to weapons provision for the PKK, and that funding is coming from Kurdish small businessmen in Western Europe.

PKK guerrillas have just killed 13 Turkish troops on Sunday and in the past few weeks have killed 28 altogether. If guerrillas were raiding over the border into the United States and had killed 28 US troops I think I know what Washington's response would be.

The the US Congress abruptly condemned modern Kemalist Turkey for the Armenian genocide, committed by the Ottoman Empire, provoking Ankara to withdraw its ambassador from Washington. I have long held that Turkey should acknowledge the genocide, which killed hundreds of thousands and displaced more hundreds of thousands. The Turkish government could then point out that it was committed by a tyrannical and oppressive government-- the Ottoman Empire-- against which the Kemalists also fought a long and determined war to establish a modern republic. I can't understand Ankara's unwillingness to distance itself from a predecessor it doesn't even think well of--the junta of Enver Pasha and the later pusillanimity of the sultan (the capital is in Ankara and not Istanbul in part for this very reason!)

But no dispassionate observer could avoid the conclusion that the Congressional vote condemning Turkey came at a most inopportune time for US-Turkish diplomacy, at a time when Turks were already raw from watching the US upset all the apple carts in their neighborhood, unleash existential threats against them, cause the rise of Salafi radicalism next door, coddle terrorists killing them, coddle the separatist KRG, and strengthen the Shiite ayatollahs on their borders.

The Congressional vote came despite the discomfort of elements of the Israel lobby with recognizing the mass killing of Armenians as a genocide. Andrew E. Mathis explains Abraham Foxman's intellectually bankrupt vacillations on this issue. Foxman and others of his ideological orientation have been forced grudgingly to back off their genocide denial in the case of the Armenians by a general shift in opinion among the American public, and his change of position may have removed any fears among congressional representatives that the Israel lobby would punish them for their vote. (Turkey and Israel have long had a strong military and diplomatic relationship, which the Israel lobby had earlier attempted to preserve by lobbying congress on Turkey's behalf with regard to some issues. But the Israel lobby is now split between pro-Kurdish factions and pro-Turkish factions, and the pro-Kurdish ones appear to be winning out. Richard Perle & Michael Rubin of AEI are examples of the pro-Turkish Neoconservative strain in the Israel lobby. They are losing.)

In 2000, 56% of Turks reported in polls that they had a favorable view of the United States. In 2005 that statistic had fallen to 12%. I shudder to think what it is now.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Father Dease, the president of the University of St. Thomas in Minneapolis, has reversed himself and invited Archbishop Desmond Tutu to speak at UST. Dease had been misled by a smear campaign against Tutu launched by the Zionist Organization of America, which was angered by the archbishop's criticism of Israel for its mistreatment of the Palestinians. ZOA falsely charged that Tutu had compared Israel to Hitler and the Nazis, which was a bald-faced lie. Some Israeli newspapers were taken in by the propaganda and some Jewish community leaders in Minneapolis are continuing to spread the falsehood.

Father Dease's letter is remarkable for its intellectual humility and ethical high-mindedness. You have a sense of a man of God trying to do the right thing, in a very complicated world, and his powers of moral reasoning are humbling.

He writes:

'Dear members of the St. Thomas community,

One of the strengths of a university is the opportunity that it provides to speak freely and to be open to other points of view on a wide variety of issues. And, I might add, to change our minds.

Therefore, I feel both humbled and proud to extend an invitation to Archbishop Desmond Tutu to speak at the University of St. Thomas.

I have wrestled with what is the right thing to do in this situation, and I have concluded that I made the wrong decision earlier this year not to invite the archbishop. Although well-intentioned, I did not have all of the facts and points of view, but now I do.

PeaceJam International may well choose to keep the alternative arrangements that it has made for its April 2008 conference, but I want the organization and Archbishop Tutu to know that we would be honored to hold the conference at St. Thomas.

In any event, St. Thomas will extend an invitation to Archbishop Tutu to participate in a forum to foster constructive dialogue on the issues that have been raised. I hope he accepts my invitation. The Jewish Community Relations Council of Minnesota and the Dakotas has agreed to serve as a co-sponsor of the forum, and I expect other organizations also to join as co-sponsors.

Details about issues to be addressed will be determined later, but I would look forward to a candid discussion about how a civil and democratic society can pursue reasoned debate on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and other emotionally charged issues.

I also want to encourage a thoughtful examination of St. Thomas’ policies regarding controversial speech and controversial speakers. In the past, we have been criticized externally and internally when we have invited controversial speakers to campus – as well as when we have not. Rather than just move from controversy to controversy, might there be a positive role that this university could play in fostering thoughtful conversation around difficult and highly charged issues? We also might explore how to more clearly express in our policies and practices our commitment to civility when discussing such issues.

I have asked Dr. Nancy Zingale, professor of political science and my former executive adviser, to oversee the planning for the forum. If you have suggestions regarding either the topic or other participants, please contact her at nhzingale@stthomas.edu.

I sincerely hope Archbishop Tutu will accept our invitation. I continue to have nothing but the utmost respect for his witness of faith, for his humanitarian accomplishments and especially for his leadership in helping to end apartheid in South Africa.

Sincerely,

Father Dennis Dease

President'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Attacks Increase in Iraq Militants Recruit Displaced Young Men

The number of attacks in Iraq has increased in recent days, frustrating US military commanders who were hoping a corner had been turned and that violence would steadily be reduced. See below for Wednesday's violence.

Internally displaced Iraqis are finding it increasingly difficult to settle in another province, since provincial authorities do not want the financial burden of caring for them. The BBC quotes veteran Iraqi journalist Ghaith Abdul Ahad as warning that the displaced are a fertile recruiting pool for the guerrilla groups. "The insurgents in west Baghdad tell me that the hardest fighters are the Sunnis who have been kicked out of their homes by the Shia," Mr Abdul Ahad told the BBC.

The US State Department is considering banning the use of private security guards in Iraq, though one scheme would involve just hiring the guards as US government employees. The privatization of war fighting, a major step back to the 18th century favored by the Bush administration as a way of throwing money to its friends, has the disadvantage of roiling diplomatic relations.

The US Marine Corps is lobbying to be redeployed from Iraq to Afghanistan. They feel that they could provide the bulk of the forces needed in the latter country, allowing a more unified command structure. They probably also feel that the Afghanistan enterprise might just have a future.

Prominent military analyst Anthony Cordesmann is warning against even a soft partition of Iraq, on the grounds that it would weaken the federal government and set the stage for a bloodbath. (See next entry for Iraqi reactions).

Barack Obama is denouncing the Senate vote in favor of the Kyl-Lieberman resolution condemning Iran, saying that it could lay the groundwork for Bush-Cheney to take the US to war against that country. He is critical of Hillary Clinton for voting for it.

Reuters reports civil war violence for Wednesday. Major incidents:

' TIKRIT - Six people were killed and 10 wounded when a car bomb exploded near the convoy of Colonel Jassim Hussein Mohammed, the chief of security of Salahuddin province, in the city of Tikrit, 175 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, a joint U.S. and Iraqi security centre said.

ZAAB - A suicide truck bomber killed one Iraqi soldier and wounded five others, including two civilians, in an attack on an Iraqi army base in the town of Zaab, 70 km (45 miles) southwest of Kirkuk, a police official said. Another police official reported seven casualties but no fatalities.

TAL AFAR - A Katyusha rocket landed on a house in the northern town of Tal Afar, killing five members of the same family and wounding five others, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a U.S. patrol wounded three civilians in the Karrada district of central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol wounded two policemen and two civilians in eastern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Gunmen opened fire on a minibus, killing one person and wounding six, in the Saidiya district of southern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded two people in Baghdad's Karrada district, police said.

BAGHDAD - One civilian was killed and six wounded by a roadside bomb targeting a U.S. patrol in Baghdad's Karrada district, police said.

BAGHDAD - One person was killed and five wounded when gunmen attacked a small bus carrying civil servants in the Bayaa district of southwestern Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and another person were killed when an explosives-rigged minibus targeted a KDP office near the city of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, Mosul's deputy governor Khesro Goran said. Sixteen people were wounded.

DIWANIYA - Gunmen killed two policemen in separate incidents in the city of Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

DIWANIYA - Three mortar rounds which landed in and around a girls' primary school in Diwaniya wounded 11 girls, three teachers and a man, police said.
'

At our Global Affairs blog, "Burma Fades from View."

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, a letter from the Eastern Orthodox patriarch of Constantinople [Istanbul] condemning the French invasion of Egypt, which had been a vassal state of the Ottoman Empire. The Ottomans allied with the Eastern Orthodox Russian Empire in a bid to gather the allies necessary to expel the French. This letter underlines how the French invasion was not a 'clash of civilizations,' since the French typically condemned Christianity and a major Christian leader condemned their invasion of a largely Muslim country.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqi Television responds to Senate Soft Partition Plan Call for Biden to be declared Persona non Grata

The USG Open Source Center translates Iraqi television reaction to the US Senate vote in favor of a soft partition of Iraq.

'Roundup of Iraqi TV Channels Coverage of US Senate Resolution on Iraq
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Wednesday, October 10, 2007


Biladi Television [Shiite Da'wa Party (Islamic Call)]

. . . In its 1700 GMT newscast on 27 September, Biladi carries a short factual report on the US Senate's resolution. The report cites supporters of the resolution as saying that "dividing" Iraq is the only solution to violence in Iraq. The report goes on to say that the US plan stipulates establishing a federal system based on the Iraqi constitution in order "to divide" Iraq into regions based on religion and sect. The report cites the Arab League's criticism of the resolution, describing it as a "sabotage plot" and accusing the United States of turning Iraq into Al-Qa'ida's main base.

In its 1000 GMT newscast on 28 September, Biladi carries a report citing Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari as stressing that all major Iraqi leaders reject the Senate's approval of a plan "to partition" Iraq, denying that any Iraqi group or sect is trying "to divide" the country.

In its subsequent newscasts on the same day, Biladi carries a six-minute video report citing reactions of Iraqi figures on the US Senate's resolution. The report cites Iraqi Government Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh as saying that the government rejects the non-binding proposal, Al-Sistani's representative Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i as saying that the resolution is not in the interest of the Iraqi people, and the spokesman for the Kurdistan Regional Government as saying that the Kurdish Government stands against the "division" of Iraq, but supports the "division" of power. The report goes on to say that the White House also rejected the Senate's resolution.

Another video report shows Iraqi deputy Mithal al-Alusi, in a news conference, rejecting the Senate's resolution and calling for declaring Senator Joseph Biden, who proposed the plan, "a persona non grata" in Iraq. The report runs interviews with two Iraqi citizens who expressed their rejection of the "division" plan.
Another two-minute report carries Friday sermons by Sunni and Shiite imams who rejected the "division" plan.

In its 1000 GMT newscast on 29 September, Biladi carries a report citing Iraqi deputy Usamah al-Nujayfi, who describes the US Senate's resolution as "a dangerous project" that threatens all Iraqis and the peoples of the region, adding that the "division" plan indicates the failure of the US project.

In its subsequent 1400 and 1700 GMT newscasts, Biladi carries a short report on the resolution, citing Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki describing the US plan as "disastrous," and calling on the Iraqi parliament to convene to respond to the US Senate. The report cites Al-Sadr trend officials and the Iranian foreign ministry expressing their rejection of the plan.

Within its 1700 GMT newscast on 29 September, Biladi interviews political analyst Amir Hasan al-Fayyad, who describes the "division" plan as "a conspiracy" against the federal system in Iraq.

Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah Television [Sunni anti-US]

Within its 1400 GMT newscast on 26 September and as part of a press review, Al-Baghdadiyah cites an article published by the Saudi newspaper Al-Yawm describing the resolution as "dangerous" and warning against its ramifications.

In its 0400 and 1800 GMT newscast on 27 September, Al-Baghdadiyah carries interviews with Iraqi citizens who voice rejection of the resolution. Within the same report, political analyst Muhammad al-Khuza'i says that the resolution is "not surprising," adding that it is "a US-Zionist plan to divide Iraq."

Within its 1400 GMT newscast on 28 September, Al-Baghdadiyah carries a report citing Al-Sistani's representative Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i as urging Iraqis to disregard any proposal that stipulates "dividing" Iraq on sectarian or ethnic basis, and Iraqi Government's spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh expressing the government's rejection of the proposal.

In its 1800 GMT newscast on 28 September, Al-Baghdadiyah cites GCC Secretary General Abd-al-Rahman al-Atiyah denouncing the Senate's resolution.

Reporting on the US Senate's resolution on the "division" of Iraq within its 1400 GMT newscast on 29 September, Al-Baghdadiyah cites Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari as saying that the resolution is non-binding to the Iraqi Government, and Iraqi deputy Abbas al-Bayyati as saying that the resolution reflects "a misinterpretation" of the Iraqi political situation. The report notes that the Turkomen parties are critical of the resolution and consider it "interference in Iraqi affairs."
The report runs interviews with Iraqi citizens who express their rejection of the resolution. The anchorman interviews political analyst Ihsan al-Khalidi, who says that the resolution reflects only the opinion of a number of US Senators, adding that the resolution is non-binding to the Iraqi or the US governments.

Baghdad Al-Masar Television [Shiite Da'wa - Iraqi Organization]

The channel opens its 1100 and 1700 GMT newscasts on 28 September with video reports citing Prime Minister Al-Maliki's rejection of the Senate's resolution. Al-Maliki says that the resolution reflects "interference in the Iraqi internal affairs" and does not express the aspirations of the Iraqi people. The report also cites Tom Casey, a spokesman for the US Department of State, as saying that the resolution is non-binding, emphasizing that "the political structure of Iraq can only be decided by the Iraqi people."

In its 1700 GMT newscast on 28 September, Al-Masar carries a video report showing Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari saying that "the majority of Iraqi leaders agree on maintaining the unity, safety, and sovereignty of Iraq."

In its 1100 GMT newscast on 29 September, Al-Masar carries a report citing Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i, representative of Ali al-Sistani, who says that "this suspicious scheme is against the interests of the Iraqis, who live safely in a united Iraq."

In its 1700 GMT newscast on 29 September, Al-Masar cites an interview conducted by Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat with Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari, in which he says that the resolution does not aim to "divide" Iraq, pointing out that the resolution is different from the federalism stipulated by the Iraqi constitution.

The report says that Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki described the resolution as "disastrous," and highlights Ali al-Sistani's and Iraqi citizens' rejection of the resolution. The report runs interviews with representatives of the Iraqi media and Iraqi citizens who call on all parties to thwart this scheme which aims at "shattering the country and ingraining sectarian strife."

At 1835 GMT on 29 September, Al-Masar carries live talk show entitled "Talk of the Hour" in which the moderator interviews Iraqi citizens and officials via telephone to comment on the Senate's non-binding resolution to "divide" Iraq into three entities. Moderator Qays al-Atwani says that "for the first time in Iraq, all political blocs, decision makers, and religious authorities agree on rejecting the resolution that contradicts the will of the Iraqi people." Al-Atwani calls on the Iraqis to "face the occupation that seeks to divide the Iraqi people and the resolution is enough proof of that." Al-Atwani then receives phone calls from Iraqi citizens, who criticize the resolution.

Tikrit Salah al-Din Satellite Channel [Sunni businessmen]

In its 1000 GMT newscast on 27 September, Salah al-Din TV carries a one-minute factual report on the Senate's non-binding resolution, noting the senate's belief that it will put an end to the ongoing violence in Iraq.

The same report is carried in Salah al-Din newscasts throughout the day.

In its 1000 GMT on 28 September, Salah al-Din carries a report citing a number of Iraqi parliament members, who express their rejection of the plan.

In its 1000 GMT newscast on 29 September, Salah al-Din carries a factual report on the reaction of Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki to the Senate. The report cites Al-Maliki as saying that the US Senate should stand by Iraq and help in reinforcing its unity instead of "dividing" the country.

The same report is carried in Salah al-Din newscasts throughout the day.

Within its 1000 GMT newscast on 30 September, Salah al-Din carries a report saying that the Kurdistan Regional Government welcomed the plan and considered it as the "most suitable solution" to Iraq's crisis, especially after "the failure of the national reconciliation." The report cites Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki as saying that the resolution is "disastrous," and carries reactions by Iraqi clerics and the Arab League, which rejected the Senate's resolution.

Baghdad Baghdad Television [Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Islamic Party]

During its 1100 GMT newscast on 27 September, Baghdad TV carries a video report citing Fawzi Akram Tarzi, a Turkomen member of Al-Sadr bloc, who says that the Turkomens reject the "division" of Iraq. Tarzi adds that the "occupation is the source of division, sectarianism, and terrorism."

. . . The channel opens its 1700 and 2000 GMT newscasts on 29 September with video reports citing the reactions of several Iraqi political and religious authorities toward the Senate's resolution.

In its 1700 newscast, the anchorman says that the Senate's resolution "mobilized the Iraqi people against it and united them against the big danger threatening their country." The report cites the reaction of Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki, Foreign Minister Zebari, and Iraqi parties and blocs denouncing the senate's resolution. The report notes the Arab League's and the GCC's criticism of the resolution, adding that France emphasized its support for Iraq's unity in response to the plan.
Baghdad TV then interviews via phone Abd-al-Sattar Abd-al-Jabbar, official spokesman for the Iraq Scholars Council, who says that "the occupation of Iraq was not done to liberate Iraq, or for the sake of democracy, or for building a new model, but it was done for the division of Iraq, which was planned by the US Administration."

. . . This summary highlights select Iraqi media reporting on the US Senate's resolution on the "partition" of Iraq during the period from 26 to 29 September. It covers reports carried on: -- Baghdad Biladi Television in Arabic -- affiliated with the Shiite organization the Islamic Da'wah Party. -- Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah Satellite Television in Arabic -- Private Iraqi television known for its opposition to the US presence in Iraq. -- Baghdad Al-Masar Television in Arabic, affiliated with the Shiite organization the Islamic Da'wah Party-Iraq Organization. -- Tikrit Salah al-Din Satellite Channel in Arabic -- Private Iraqi satellite station, owned by Sunni businessmen. -- Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Television in Arabic -- television channel believed to be sponsored by the Iraqi Islamic Party. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

57 Killed, 120 Wounded Turks Authorize Iraq Incursion

Guerrilla violence left at least 57 dead in Iraq on Tuesday, with 22 killed in two truck bombings in the northern
refinery city of Baiji. The violence left nearly 120 wounded. (The attacks in Baiji appear to have targeted a tribal sheikh allied with the US.) Guerrillas set off three major bombs in Baghdad. A private security firm based in Kuwait killed two women in a car, which apparently did not slow down as they had ordered. In the northern big city of Mosul, gunmen assassinated the deputy chief of police.

Gunmen kidnapped the director of Basra International Airport in south Iraq. The British are drawing down their troops in Basra on the grounds that it is now secure. (

The Institute for War and Peace Reporting recently posted a report on journalists in Basra living in an atmosphere of fear:

' "The red lines that no media outlet in Basra dares to cross include writing stories about militias, administrative and financial corruption by officials and the interference of some parties in government affairs," said a local reporter who preferred no to be named. Iran is also another red line. No one dares to write directly about what Iran does in Basra." '

After Kurdish guerrillas killed over a dozen Turkish troops, Turkey's prime minister authorized a military strike against suspected guerrilla strongholds in Iraqi Kurdistan on Friday.

The US State Department immediately asked Turkey to reconsider using force in this way. Turkey's leaders are already annoyed with the US over the looming Congressional resolution condemning Turkey for the Armenian genocide of 1915, and some politicians are suggesting that Incirlik Air Force Base could be closed to the US if the resolution passes. The base is now a major route for getting supplies to the US military in Iraq. The Armenian Lobby is behind the congressional vote and is being opposed by the Turkey Lobby.

Time asks if the US has abandoned Shiite south Iraq, and answers "yes."

The incredible shrinking "Coalition" in Iraq.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog: an officer complains of having been dragooned into Bonaparte's effort without even knowing that he was headed for Egypt. He says of that country's tribal leaders: "As soon as we were put on shore we began to fight against certain nations, known by the name of Bedouins: nations of the most barbarous kind. At first they made no prisoners. When General Bonaparte saw this, he sent them a Manifesto in their own language, informing them, that if they put their prisoners to death, he should be obliged to retaliate. Notwithstanding this, they have not altered their conduct."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

KPFK: Threats to Academic Freedom

A podcast from KPFK on the threats to academic freedom emanating from the Israel lobby, including comments from Laurie Brand (chair of the Committee on Academic Freedom at the Middle East Studies Association); and a firsthand account of what happened to Desmond Tutu at the University of St. Thomas.

If you have your own blog, it would be a service if someone would type out a transcript of the segment concerning Tutu and post it. Please don't send me transcripts, since a general appeal like this to thousands of people will produce too many responses. But I'll link to the first URL I get with a transcript.

Richard Silverstein in The Guardian on "preemptive censorship" in the US of public comment critical of Israeli policies toward the Palestinians.

Silverstein's Blog is here.

See also Mitchell Plitnick and Cecilie Surasky, "A Disservice to Jews,", which also corrects the disinformation in the Zionist Organization of America's misrepresentation of what Tutu said about the Israeli occupation of the Palestinians.

For more on the smear issue see Suraski here.

A kind reader writes:

'A transcript of the Desmond Tutu speech which caused his invitation to speak to be be rescinded by the University of St. Thomas is available in document format here.

An html version from a Google archive is here.

The Associated Press writeup of the University of St. Thomas incident is online at the International Herald Tribune site here. '

I know about the smear technique myself. When I was being considered for a job at Yale, John Fund of the Wall Street Journal charged that I had called Israel "the most dangerous country in the Middle East." I had never said anything like that. And how would you convince people that the WSJ was just making things up?
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

British Troop Drawdown from Basra

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged on Monday to pull 3,000 British troops out of Basra by March of 2008, leaving only 2500, with those to be withdrawn by the end of that year. Brown's office says that the drawdown was approved by US Gen. David Petraeus.

Military analysts point out that the effective force in Basra will really only be 1250, since that is all the troops that could be spared for an operation in Basra or another nearby trouble spot, while the other 1250 would need to remain to secure the base. In turn, one could imagine a perilous situation emerging in Basra (population 1.5 million), dealing with which would require more than 1250 troops.

Some observers worry that the British contingent could get so small that it might be overwhelmed by militant Shiite militiamen, and be forced to evacuate by helicopter, as in the last days of the US in Saigon.

It is also unclear that the British could any longer, as of next March, effectively provide a security umbrella for US fuel and supply convoys going from Basra, Umm Qasr and Kuwait up north through Shiite territory to Baghdad and other sites of US military activity. The Iraqi 10th Army Division seems unlikely to be able to play that role so soon. My guess is that the US will have to station troops in Basra.

Others point out that the troops drawn down from Basra will likely be sent to Afghanistan, where British casualties are mounting in the face of attacks by Pushtun guerrillas. (The increasingly dangerous situation in Afghanistan gets little press in the United States.)

At our Global Affairs joint blog, Dick Norton's "The Lebanese Impasse". In my experience, most people are also not paying attention to the crisis in Lebanon and the way in which Bushco policies are exacerbating it.

At the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, Rozis describes the tribulations of the first modern Western invasion of a major Middle Eastern region. Among other things he says, "They [the Mamluks] are not in the least afraid of our cavalry: to say the truth, we have not much of it; they are only intimidated by our artillery: they rush upon our bayonets, as the wild boar does upon the hunters when he is wounded. They have no cannon; if they had, no nation on earth would be able to subdue them. We were many days without water or bread, or victuals of any kind; and even without means of procuring any. In five or six days, I speak without exaggeration, we lost six or seven hundred men by thirst alone!!!"

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

University of St. Thomas Law School Protests Exclusion of Desmond Tutu

University of St. Thomas Law School faculty weighs in on the refusal of a speaking invitation to Archbishop Desmond Tutu (pacifist, anti-Apartheid activist and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize), on grounds that his criticisms of Israeli policies toward the Palestinians are hurtful to Jewish feelings and therefore anti-Semitic. (See also Colleen Rowley at Huffington).

From "Mirror of Justice".

October 8, 2007

Dear Father Dease and Dr. Rochon,

We are members of the School of Law faculty with a variety of political and religious perspectives. We write in our capacity as faculty of the University of St. Thomas and with respect for the leadership you provide the University. We are concerned by the recent decision to veto an invitation to Anglican Archbishop Desmond Tutu to speak at St. Thomas. We urge you to reconsider this decision and to join in inviting Abp. Tutu to speak in the Twin Cities.

In general, the appearance at UST of a Nobel-Peace-Prize winner, a major figure in the nonviolent movement against apartheid, would be a magnificent opportunity for the University community. Although the conference at which Abp. Tutu would speak is sponsored by an outside group, without a doubt his appearance here would benefit UST students, faculty, and staff, and enhance the University’s reputation as a place engaged in dialogue with figures of international distinction.

We are distressed at the rejection of this opportunity, and especially at the rationale that the administration has publicly asserted: that the University should not host a speaker who, in comments on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has said things that are offensive or “hurtful to members of the Jewish community.”

At the outset, we note that the asserted rationale here is not that Abp. Tutu has been invited to speak directly to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict during his appearance at UST. Rather, the administration’s rationale, that he has made statements that are hurtful to some on other occasions, reflects a far more restrictive attitude toward hosting speakers who are distinguished but in some way controversial.

To reject a distinguished speaker based on worries that his words may cause hurt or offense to some is entirely at odds with the search for truth that should characterize a Catholic university. Speech taking positions on controversial subjects will often be offensive or hurtful to some people. Nevertheless, a Catholic university should be willing to open itself to such speech – and criticisms of that speech – in order to learn the truth. Only with such an approach can a university carry out its mission of “consecrat[ing] itself without reserve to the cause of truth” (Ex Corde Ecclesiae ¶4 (our emphasis)). To give controlling weight to worries about hurt or offense cannot be reconciled with the University’s charge to pursue “all aspects of truth . . . without fear but rather with enthusiasm, dedicating itself to every path of knowledge” (id.). We could easily cite secular academic norms as well, for in this case they harmonize with Catholic norms.

That an otherwise distinguished speaker should be rejected because he has made statements on disputed political issues that hurt or offend some people is a principle of breathtaking scope. Under this rationale, it appears, the University would refuse to invite former President Jimmy Carter or Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher to speak on any matter of human rights or public affairs. Proposals for speakers who have worthwhile ideas but are less well known might fare even worse under this calculus.

We recognize that Abp. Tutu has spoken on a broad range of issues, and that his opinions do not always comport with the views of the Catholic Church. However, Abp. Tutu was to receive no award, honor, or generalized endorsement from the University; and his views on issues other than those he has been invited to address simply are not relevant in this particular case.

We urge that the administration issue Abp. Tutu an invitation in connection with the Peacejam conference, and in the absence of an invitation, that the University issue a statement acknowledging that it was a mistake to reject the invitation on the ground that has been offered.


Respectfully,


Ann Bateson
Thomas Berg
Elizabeth Brown
Teresa Collett
Robert Delahunty
Neil Hamilton
Robert Kahn
Joel Nichols
Julie Oseid
Charles Reid
Elizabeth Schiltz
Gregory Sisk
Susan Stabile
Scott Taylor
Robert Vischer
Fr. Reginald Whitt
Virgil Wiebe
Jennifer Wright

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Al-Maliki: Blackwater Guards Murderers Obama Slams Private Security Firms PKK Kills 13 Turkish Troops

According to the NYT, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's office on Sunday accused the Blackwater security company of deliberately murdering civilians. Spokesman Ali Dabbagh said that the private guards should be tried for the crime.

Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama has taken the lead in criticizing Blackwater and other private security firms in Iraq. He points out that their fighters are extremely expensive and that their tendency to play cowboy ends up harming US troops, since Iraqis do not make a distinction between them and regular US troops.

Turkish troops killed a PKK [Kurdish Workers Party] guerrilla in eastern Anatolia early on Sunday, then ran into an ambush in which PKK fighters killed 13 Turkish troops. The PKK is being given safe harbor in Iraqi Kurdistan by authorities there, much to Ankara's frustration. This major firefight, the most serious in years between PKK and the Turkish military in years, will put pressure on the Turkish government to engage in hot pursuit of the Kurdish guerrillas into Iraq where they are hiding out. The PKK is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, but the US military has done nothing to stop it from attacking a NATO ally (Turkey). The US also coddles the Mojahedin-e Khalq [MEK] terrorist group in Diyala province, which Saddam used against Iran, and which is probably the source for some of the wilder charges the US military makes against Iran.

It is one of the great ironies that in the wake of September 11 and the illegal war on Iraq, the Bush administration has ended up de facto giving safe harbor to two major terrorist groups in the Middle East.

The ranks of the Coalition of the Unwilling is growing, with the Czech Republic announcing that it will withdraw its small contingent of 100 troops from Basra at some point in the not too distant future. You have to wonder whether Bush won't be alone in keeping troops there by summer of 2008.

Reuters reports several bombings in Baghdad on Sunday.

Leila Fadel of McClatchy took a drive through al-Anbar province and found a palpable difference in the level of security for the better. The US military estimated that attacks in the province have fallen from 400 a week to 100 a week.

At the Global Affairs blog, a link to Daniel Levy's important comments on Gaza and on Mearsheimer and Walt.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, contemporary letters from the French commenting on their difficult situation after the British defeated the French fleet off Alexandria. One letter shows that Bonaparte was already positioning a man in Ottoman Palestine, which he later attacked.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Forewarned Is Forearmed: Bush On Iran

Courtesy R. J. Eidelson at YouTube.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Fadlallah: Arab States Should not Allow US to use them Against Iran

The USG Open Source Center summarizes the statements of Lebanese Shiite leader Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah concerning what he sees as an American push to set Arab countries against Iran.

Round-up of Middle East Friday Sermons 5 Oct
Middle East -- OSC Summary
Sunday, October 7, 2007

. . . At 0738 GMT, the news agency carries a report on the Friday sermon delivered by Scholar Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah at the Imams Al-Hasanayn Mosque in Beirut.

In this Friday sermon, Fadlallah says: "A British newspaper carried a news report on training . . . the United States conducts for some of its allies of the Arab states in preparation for a possible war against Iran. This newspaper quoted some Arab officials as justifying this plan by saying that Iran seeks to consolidate itself as a great regional power, something which necessitates cooperation with the United States on the political level, the exchange of information, and the conduction of joint training exercises."

Fadlallah adds: "In light of this, we wonder: Do these Arab states have any interest in participating in the declared US war against Iran at a time when everyone knows that the Arab region's stability and security will not be achieved by the foreign plans which only serve the US strategy of controlling the Islamic region and prevent this region from acquiring means of strength? This is in addition to the fact that if this war breaks out, it will destroy the region and burn all its security and economic resources."

He says: "We hope that these states will resort to logic and reason and not respond to the US plan in this regard, and search for the elements of the Arab-Iranian confidence, taking into consideration that Iran has continued to stress that it seeks good relations of friendship and neighborliness with the Arab states, that it wants to consolidate its economic interests with them, and that Iran's power will not be used against its neighbors, but it is a defense force against any aggression by the United States."

He adds: "The US Administration began to focus on the need to attack the positions of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard instead of the nuclear positions. This is because this administration has failed to convince the US public opinion that Iran poses an imminent nuclear threat."

Fadlallah says: "The question is: Why the US, European, and some Arab statements are confined to the Iranian interference in Iraq? Why they do not raise the issue of occupation, which turned Iraq into a state of security and terrorist chaos and economic deterioration and forced a large number of Iraqis to leave their country, something whose danger could extend to the entire region, particularly in light of the US Congress's decision to partition Iraq and to later partition more than one Arab and Islamic state in implementation of the Israeli and arrogant powers' plan to dismember the entire region?"

Fadlallah criticizes the "enemy foreign minister's" statements on the peace conference the US President has called for. On the International Jerusalem Day, he calls on the Arabs to draw a plan "to liberate Jerusalem."

Turning to the Lebanese situation, Fadlallah speaks about "rumors on arming the parties." He says: "The problem in Lebanon is that the political reality, including its leaders and parties, does not pay attention to the fact that there are starving and deprived people who are destroyed in their feelings, concerns, and fears, especially since the people have become addicted to these human idols which they worship and obey blindly."

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Al-Dhari Calls for Dialogue with al-Qaeda; al-Hakim/ Sadr Pact?

In an interview on Aljazeera on Friday, Shaikh Harith al-Dhari of the Association for Muslims Scholars called on Iraqi tribal fighters to cease attacking "al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia." He said that 90% of al-Qaeda in Iraq was Iraqi Sunnis and that ways should be found to dialogue and reason with them. He decried the willingness of tribal leaders to attack the organization, saying that such infighting only benefitted the Occupiers. Al-Dhari has in the past been highly critical of "al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia" for its strategy of targetting Iraqi civilians it considers collaborators with the Occupation. Al-Dhari may now feel, however, that the pendulum is swinging too far in the other direction, with pro-American Sunnis fighting anti-American Sunnis. He said, "al-Qaeda is of us and we are with it." More on this issue in Arabic at Sawt al-Iraq. Al-Dhari's willingness to see the violent, foreign-inspired group as essentially Iraqi and as a group one could dialogue with is startling and, I think, puts him beyond the pale in mainstream Iraqi politics (he is in Amman, Jordan, and I think there is an arrest warrant out for him.) In spring of 2004, I remember a poll done that showed that 25% of Iraqis admired him, and his were among the highest numbers in the poll. He may still have a following among Sunni Salafis, but he is no longer a national figure.

The news of an agreement between Shiite clerical leaders Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr, whose militias (the Badr Corps and the Mahdi Army, respectively) have been literally sniping at one another, seems to me rather thin on specifics. It mainly seems to be a ceasefire called by leaders who are distant from the street scene and who likely don't actually control a lot of their paramilitary commanders. Two provincial governors belonging to the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq [led by al-Hakim] have been blown up recently, presumably by followers of Muqtada al-Sadr. Whether this rather pro forma ceasefire can hold long seems to me very much up in the air.

LAT has more.

McClatchy reports from late Saturday, "Clashes erupted between Mahdi Army militiamen and Iraqi army in Al Washash area, Iraqi police said. The clashes started on the background of building a separating wall in the area. Two people were injured."

Since a lot of government security forces have been infiltrated by Badr Corps militiamen, this fight was actually probably between Sadrists and Badr security forces. It raises question about the efficacy of the Hakim/Sadr pact. [sorry for the earlier corrupt code mentioning 'Bin Laden.' Typo.)

Ammar al-Hakim, the son of Abdul Aziz, who was running the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI)while his father underwent chemotherapy for cancer in Iran, points to the simple but crucial element of trust among Iraq's political leaders as a prerequisite for any progress on creconciliation. He says that it is currently lacking, and that one group blocks the proposals of another purely out of knee-jerk distrust of members of another sect or ethnicity.

Reuters reports civil war violence in Iraq on Saturday.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Sermons Call for Sunni-Shiite Unity Condemn Biden Plan

The USG Open Source Center translates passages from Friday sermons carried on Iraqi television:

Round-up of Iraqi Friday Sermons 5 Oct
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, October 6, 2007

. . . Within its 1800 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic - government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network - is observed to carry the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"In a Friday sermon, Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir [Shiite, Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq], imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, has called for the implementation of Article 140 on the Kirkuk issue in accordance with the Iraqi Constitution. He stressed the need to implement this article in all other areas. Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir also urged members of the [Sunni Arab tribal militias or] awakenings to put themselves at the disposal of the security services."

Shaykh al-Saghir says: "I say that we are with the constitution, and we want this article to be implemented fully in all areas. We do not accept that this article be implemented in one area and not implemented in other areas. There is a problem in Kirkuk and we should solve this problem. However, this does not mean that we should forget about the problems of Balad, Al-Dujayl, Karbala, and other areas. All these files should be arranged and proceed together in order to establish justice regarding this issue."

Al-Saghir adds: "The other issue I would like to discuss and to draw attention to is the issue of the groups of the so-called awakening in Al-Ghazaliyah, Al-Amiriyah, Al-Saydiyah, and other areas. You may recall, and the whole world may recall, that we called for forming popular committees from the very beginning. We said that the terrorists will not be able to enter these areas if they are protected by their people. At the time, there were no problems between Sunnis and Shiites. Sunnis and Shiites in the popular committees cooperate with each other. They know the criminal if he is one of the people in that area and they do not give shelters to strangers."

The report adds: "Hazim al-A'raji [Sadrist], imam and preacher of the Al-Kazimiyah Friday sermon, has called on Iraqis to make the last 10 days of Ramadan days of Islamic and national unity and of reactivating the process of national reconciliation."

Discussing the US Senate's decision on the partitioning of Iraq, Al-A'raji says: "The infidels still want to partition Iraq. What did Ali (Bin-Abi-Talib, the fourth Orthodox Caliph in Islam) tell them when they wanted to partition the greater Islamic state at the time? Ali told them: No to compromise solutions and no to partition. And today we also say no to partition."

The report says: "Shaykh Ala Abd-al-Wahhab, imam and preacher of the Yusuf al-Hassan Mosque, has called for unity and solidarity among worshippers. He stressed the need to save the blood of Iraqis. Shaykh Abd-al-Wahhab also called for confronting anyone who seeks to destroy the bonds of brotherhood and unity among the sons of this country and also confronting the hands of darkness wherever they maybe." . .

Baghdad Satellite Television in Arabic - television channel believed to be sponsored by the Iraqi Islamic Party - is observed to carry at 0910 GMT a Friday sermon from an unidentified mosque in Baghdad. Shaykh Hashim al-Ta'i [Sunni Arab] delivers the sermon.

In his Friday sermon, the preacher says that the "politicians in Iraq, the political trends, and parties need sieving, purification, and a sieve to distinguish the truthful from the liar, the advocate of a message from the one who claims so, and the courageous from the coward."

The preacher adds: "The government, which appoints persons in the wrong place based on sectarian motives, should wait for its end. If it feels that it is doing its job and that it will not be changed, it then should know that the sweeping popular willpower will come sooner or later if the current situation continues as it is."

The preacher criticizes "human rights violations" in Iraqi prisons. He says that the people will "disavow" many leaders if they feel that these leaders are not honest. He adds that "we need decisions and positions to correct the current situation and to draw the future as it should be." He says that the "political forces and the Americans wanted to let the constitution pass in spite of us." He says: "The rebellion of our people and brothers of the beloved Shiites in the south against the federation that divides the country will be stronger than that of the Sunnis in their cities. Believe me that this is because the people knew and realized that the enemies of Islam seek to dismember our country."

He says: "The agencies of the defense and interior ministries should be purged. But can they be purged without a heroic action by a leader who is supported by the masses who press on his hands and push toward a change? The leader cannot do this alone. We are not like the Jews when they told Moses: "Go thou, and thy Lord, and fight ye two, while we sit here (and watch)." (Koranic verse, Al-Ma'idah, 5:24) We should be shoulder to shoulder with the leader if we are convinced of his leadership."

He says: "Foreign interference is rejected. One should not be a humiliated underling to the foreigner who gives him instructions on everything. This is rejected. We refuse to allow the humiliated underling to lead the country."

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic - independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic language daily Al-Zaman - is observed to carry the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"The Friday preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque in central Baghdad has called on the Iraqi political forces to unite in order to foil the partition intentions, which were expressed in the US Senate's decision early this week, taking into consideration that they pose danger to everyone. In his sermon, Muhammad al-Haydari [Sunni Arab] urged the government of the Kurdistan Region to confront these intentions, stressing that they will also be harmed by them when they will find themselves surrounded by states that do not want the establishment of a Kurdish state."

Al-Haydari says: "The Iraqi political forces should make efforts to safeguard Iraq's unity. If there are differences among these forces, they should put them aside for the sake of Iraq's unity, especially since the partitioning of Iraq harms everyone, and, in fact, it harms the entire region."

The report adds: "Friday preachers in the city of Mosul, in northern Iraq, have appealed to the Iraqi Government to take action to put an end to the violation of the sanctity of mosques and the killing of imams and to achieve security. At the same time, a number of mosques in Mosul refrained from performing the usual rituals in denunciation of the assassination of men of religion in the city over the past days. Shaykh Bilal Muhammad, imam and preacher of the Al-Khadr Mosque, said the Iraqi Government, which remained silent over what is taking place in Mosul, should put an end to these assassinations that targeted men of religion in the governorate and in all Iraq." . .

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) [ISCI} led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim [Shiite], carries the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Friday imams and preachers in Baghdad have blessed the unified positions of the Iraqi people in confronting terrorism and the gangs of organized crime. The preachers praised the popular actions in support of the government and the denunciation of all forms of violence and extremism."

Shaykh Muhammad al-Haydari says: "All sides have confronted Al-Qa'ida. The Sunnis, Shiites, Arabs, Kurds, and Turkomen have confronted Al-Qa'ida and managed to repulse it. Many blows have been dealt to Al-Qa'ida, which is fleeing from one area to another in the hope of finding a shelter in this or that area, but it has failed."

Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir says: "Sunnis and Shiites in the popular committees cooperate with each other. They know the criminal if he is one of the people in that area and they do not give shelters to strangers. The plight in these areas is the strangers. From the very beginning we said that the people should contribute to the security solution. The people should not stand watching and seeing themselves killed only because the state and the Americans want to be in charge of this issue."

The channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program at 1820 GMT, as follows:

Shaykh Al-Saghir says: "The Americans should realize that the success that was achieved in Al-Anbar does not necessarily mean that it will be achieved in Baghdad, taking into consideration that Al-Anbar is one fabric and the people there are not militia, but they have prepared themselves in order to defend Al-Anbar against Al-Qa'ida."

Shaykh Al-Haydari says: "The situation was not restored as it was before in the areas from which Al-Qa'ida was kicked out. However, it was clear that there was a division on the ground to make this area a Sunni and that area a Shiite. Only small groups of the displaced people have returned to their areas."

He adds: "The same thing applies to Diyala. For a long time the US forces have not taken any action in Diyala despite the killing operations and the displacement on sectarian basis."

Shaykh Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji [Shiite, ISCI], imam and preacher of the Al-Najaf Friday sermon, says: "We celebrate the Jerusalem Day anniversary in solidarity with Islam, the first Qiblah (Al-Aqsa Mosque where Muslims used to turn to in their prayers before they were ordered to turn to Ka'ba), and with a general Islamic issue. Jerusalem is not only for Shiites, Sunnis, Arabs, or Persians, but it belongs to them all. We sympathize with Jerusalem out of Islamic, Arab, national, and humanitarian principles. So, let the issue be clear. We sympathize out of principles."

The preacher praises Khomeyni and says that "this great man has raised high the head of Islam and Muslims, particularly the Shiites."

He says that Muslims celebrate this day because Jerusalem is the only issue on which "all Muslims unite," and because "Israel is an illegitimate state." He says that the "Palestinian infighting between HAMAS and Fatah is a stab in the heart of the plan of the liberation of Palestine."

Al-Qabbanji says: "The last issue is the new civilized, ideological, and religious turning point in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in its confrontation of the takfir (holding other Muslims to be infidels), terrorism, and false masks in the name of Jihad. We all heard the fatwa (religious ruling) and statements by the general mufti of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Shaykh Abd-al-Aziz Al Al-Shaykh, who advised the youth to refrain from carrying out acts of terrorism outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which are called Jihad, including in Iraq. He said that I advise these people not to make themselves tools in the hands of unknown and dishonest elements. This is a fact. I am talking about Iraq now. What is taking place in Iraq in particular in the name of Jihad is a killing of the Iraqi people and innocents and it is not a Jihad against the occupation and the arrogant ones. It is a dismembering of Iraqi unity and a defense of Saddam and his group."

He adds: "You may have heard the statement of the Ba'th Party, the wing of Izzat al-Duri, who said that we carry out 80 percent of the operations that are carried out in Iraq. Praise be to God, these operations are carried out by the Izzat al-Duri's group and the Ba'th Party. This is the Jihad in Iraq. This means that it is the Jihad of the Saddam group. It is the Jihad of the Ba'th Party. This means mass graves. Praise be to God, the truth is revealed now to the effect that the Ba'th Party is behind what is taking place in Iraq. There is a black ideology of terrorists who came from abroad. Praise be to God. So, you just wait to see that there is a new turning point in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The truth is that this is a key fatwa. I have watched the Saudi satellite channels and found out that there is a turning point toward ideological moderation and the renunciation of terrorism."

Shaykh Hasan al-Zamili, [Shiite] imam and preacher of the Al-Diwaniyah Friday sermon, says: "There are the killing of scholars, preachers, and the representatives of the religious authorities; the violation of sanctities; and the organized political liquidations and assassinations. They know who is behind these assassinations and actions. The perpetrators of these acts are now being interrogated and have clearly confessed to their crimes."

He adds: "The government is required to punish the killers and to announce their confessions to the public." He says: "This covering, collusion, and silence have encouraged the criminals to violate the sanctity of Al-Husayn Shrine and burn what they have burned in Karbala. I say now and I have said it before, the government knows, the Council of Representatives knows, and the committees that were formed know who the killers are."

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sadrists Accuse Badr of Assassinations US Airstrike Kills 25

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that tensions have heated up in the Shiite South between the Sadr Movement and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (which maintains the Badr Corps paramilitary). The Sadr movement on Friday accused the Badr Organization of assassinating Sadr leaders. Sadrist MP Ahmad al-Masoudi accused the Badr Organization of having organized militias to assassinate prominent Sadrist leaders. He said that 4 prominent Sadrist leaders have been assassinated in Hilla Province in recent weeks. Three suspects are in custody, and Masoudi maintained that documents tied them to the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior. Last week two Sadrist leaders were assassinated in Basra.

The experiment in forming tribal councils in the Sunni Arab areas was dealt another blow by the assassination Thursday evening of the leader of the "Awakening Council" of Salahuddin Province. The killing comes only weeks after the head of the Awakening Council in al-Anbar Province, Sattar Abu Rishah, was assassinated.

A US air strike on a village near Baquba killed 25 persons and wounded 40 others, including women and children, according to Al-Hayat. AFP carries a similar story. The US military maintains that its strike killed 25 rogue Iraqi militiamen involved in smuggling weaponry from Iran. Apparently the Americans accused these militiamen of having an Iranian connection, but Iraqi authories doubt the whole US story.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq: Shiite Bloc Distances Itself from Controversial Biden Resolution

The USG Open Source Center reports on the way that the United Iraqi Alliance, the largest Shiite bloc, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, has attempted to distance itself from the Biden-Gelb plan for a soft partition of Iraq. (This attempt at distancing come despite the similarity of the ISCI plan for an 8-province Shiite superprovince in the south to the Biden proposal.) This report calls the United Iraqi Alliance 'the United Iraqi Coalition' and refers to ISCI as IISC; the acronyms differ because the original Arabic terms can be translated in more than one way.

Iraq: Shiite Bloc Distances Itself from Controversial Biden Resolution
Iraq -- OSC Report
Friday, October 5, 2007

Against the backdrop of widespread condemnation of the US Senate's 26 September non-binding resolution sponsored by Senator Biden, the United Iraqi Coalition (UIC) [United Iraqi Alliance] -- the largest Shiite bloc in the Iraqi parliament -- endorsed a 3 October Iraqi parliamentary statement rejecting the US resolution. In addition, the UIC has attempted to distinguish the Biden plan from the federalism project spearheaded by the UIC's main party, the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC), expressing concern that opponents of its initiative have been drawing connections between the Senate resolution and the UIC proposal.

Joining the widespread denunciation of the recent Biden resolution, the UIC endorsed a 3 October Iraqi parliamentary statement rejecting the resolution on the grounds that it was "interference in Iraqi internal affairs" and that it was based on "ethnic and sectarian foundations" (Al-Iraqiyah TV, 3 October). In addition, UIC officials sought to distinguish their longstanding position on federalism from the Biden initiative.

In a transcript from an interview with Radio Sawa posted on the website of his foundation, Ammar al-Hakim -- son of the IISC's ailing leader, Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim -- stressed that the UIC's version of federalism is based on "geographic" rather than ethno-sectarian grounds, and that Iraq's federal structure would be determined by the public in accordance with the Iraqi Constitution (www.belagh.com, 1 October).

The news website of senior IISC official Jalal al-Din al-Saghir stated that he rejected "the partition of Iraq into Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish entities" on the grounds that each group exists in "every area" and that such a partition would involve the "expelling" of Iraqis from their homes (Buratha News, 29 September).

Earlier, UIC officials and media had complained that "some" were exploiting the uproar over the Biden plan by drawing false links between it and the current UIC federalism proposal.

Al-Saghir complained that "some" were using "deceitful" methods to associate the Biden resolution with the UIC plan in order to "fool the people" (Buratha News, 29 September).

Hadi al-Amiri -- head of the Badr Organization, the IISC's formerly armed wing -- objected that the debate over the Biden plan was being used to insinuate that federalism is a means "for partitioning Iraq" (Al-Sharqiyah TV, 2 October).
Front page commentaries in the papers of the Badr Organization and of the UIC party, Hizballah Movement in Iraq, complained that the Biden resolution gave ammunition to those who wish to confuse Iraq's internal debate over federalism by allowing them to depict the proponents of federalism as "tools implementing US schemes" (Badr, Al-Bayyinah, 1 October).

Lending weight to UIC officials' concerns, critics of UIC's federalism plan have pointed to what they claimed were connections between the UIC's vision and the controversial Biden plan.

According to Radio Sawa, Ayad al-Samarra'i and Salih al-Mutlaq, major figures in leading Sunni parties with a history of criticizing the IISC's federal designs, charged that the IISC and the US Senate "coordinated" on federalism, while Iraqi List MP Izzat al-Shabandar, who sponsored a late September declaration condemning the Senate resolution, observed that there were "several similar facets" between the two proposals (www.belagh.com, 1 October; Radio Sawa , 30 September).

Condemning the Biden plan as an attempt to partition Iraq, Al-Sadr Trend MP Salih al-Ukayli stated that "federalism and partitioning are two sides of the same coin so long as the occupation of beloved Iraq continues" (Al-Sharqiyah TV, 2 October).

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Iraq turns to China for Arms Shiite Bloc Denounces US arming of Sunnis

WaPo says that the Iraqi government has made a $100 mn. deal with China for the purchase of light weaponry, especially AK-47 assault rifles. Some observers are afraid that these arms will actually end up in the hands of sectarian militiamen or anti-government guerrillas, through graft or theft or because much of the Iraqi police and army is made up of militiamen. The Iraqi government maintains that the US arming of its police and army is not going fast enough and that large numbers of policemen are essentially unarmed for lack of equipment. (It is, however, alleged that large numbers of policemen sold off their weapons and even ammunition in the face of grinding poverty and salary arrears).

Stung, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates pledged to speed up US arms deliveries to the Iraqis.

My guess is that this is a step toward Iraqi government independence of the US military, and that the US military is deliberately going slow on providing some kinds of equipment because it still does not trust the Iraqis.

Also, President Jalal Talabani and PM Nuri al-Maliki are desperately afraid of the new Sunni Arab tribal levies that the US military is creating and the arming of which it is facilitating, and the Chinese arms for Kurdish and Shiite troops may be an answer to the US-sponsored "Awakening" groups.

The largest bloc in parliament, the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance, recently demanded that the US stop arming the Sunni Arab tribesmen, many of whom are involved in guerrilla groups that have targeted Shiites or the Iraqi government in the past.

(Radio Sawa says in Arabic that the Sunni Arab bloc, the Iraqi Accord Front, criticized the Shiite UIA for its criticism of the new American policy.)

The Shiite mayor of Iskandariya, a member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) was killed with four bodyguards by a roadside bomb on Thursday. The city is in a mixed Sunni-Shiite area where members of each branch of Islam have been trying to ethnically cleanse the other.

The US arrested an Iraqi member of parliament from the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front, apparently on suspicion of having links to the guerrillas. Naif Muhammad Jasim was taken into custody in Sharqat on Wednesday. The US also arrested a man they accused of being a banker for the jihadi volunteers who flocked to Iraq.

Reuters reports civil war violence for Thursday. One US soldier was killed, and over a dozen Iraqis were killed in a wave of bombings.

Religious fanatics in Basra who have appointed themselves a morals police are attacking and killing women who do not veil to the extent the extremists demand. Every month in the southern port city, 15 female bodies show up in the streets, murdered by the puritans.

AT the Global Affairs group blog, Farideh Farhi on the implications of the North Korean deal for Iran. And, part two of Barnett Rubin's interview by Josh Marshall.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, a comment on the trials and tribulations of late eighteenth-century civilian contractors who went along on Bonaparte's invasion in hopes of making a pile (and who were among the social forces arguing for the invasion in the first place):

"What a number of people have been taken in, my dear girl! All those sudden acquirers of fortunes, or rather all those robbers(7), are pitifully down in the mouth, and would, I believe, be very happy to return from whence they came. It gives me a deal of pleasure to see, that the majority of them will rather have lost than gained by their speculations. Some, indeed, have done tolerably well, but they are very few; and few as they are, have sweated pretty handsomely for what they have got."

The more things change, the more they stay the same.
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