Saudis Foil Plots by Radicals; Parliament balks at Maliki Appointment; Parliament Condemns Kurdish Oil Deals

The dangers for the region and the world of the continued radicalization of Arab youth via the US presence in Iraq were demonstrated this week when Saudi authorities broke up a plot to attack Saudi petroleum facilities. Given current high prices, any such attack would have the potential for driving them even higher, with deleterious effects on the US and world economies. Many of those involved in the plots were Saudis who had fought the US and Shiites in Iraq and then returned to the kingdom.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki tried and failed to play 'divide and rule' with the Sunni Arabs in parliament on Thursday. The Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front had been part of the al-Maliki 'national unity government' from spring 2006, but this summer that IAF withdrew from the al-Maliki government and its 6 cabinet ministers resigned. Al-Maliki just tried to appoint a cabinet minister nominated by the tribal Awakening Councils, who are also Sunnis and who have thrown in with the United States. His point was to show the Iraqi Accord Front, which has 44 members in parliament, that he could find other Sunnis to support him if they will not play ball. The IAF has made specific demands of al-Maliki, which he seems unwilling to entertain, and its leaders say they won't rejoin his government unless he yields on them.

Al-Maliki's attempt to do an end-run around parliamentary representatives was criticized by many members of parliament, who complained that the tribal Awakening Councils were not elected and do not represent anyone, whereas the Sunni parliamentarians were elected by the people.

As it turned out, al-Maliki's opponents in parliament prevented the appointment of two cabinet ministers to replaced those who had resigned (Shiite parties have also withdrawan). The members of parliament boycotted the session, depriving it of a quorum. Another issue was that al-Maliki had planned to have the two appointments approved by less than a 51% vote. (I am not sure that is even constitutional). The MPs were also protesting this procedural change.

The episode underlies the political gridlock in Iraq, which undermines any military success of the surge.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that MPs also condemned as unconstitutional the oil contracts signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government with foreign firms, ignoring the federal government. They demanded that the Kurds wait until a federal oil and gas law has been passed.

Hadi al-Amiri, a member of the United Iraqi Alliance, and head of the paramilitary Badr Organization, urged the formation of a parliamentary committee to look into whether the Kurds have acted unconstitutionally, and into whether a formula could be found to serve as the basis for a compromise.

The Shiite MPs maintained that article 39 of the Iraqi constitution rendered null and void all oil contracts signed before the passage of a new oil and gas law.

MP Rashid al-Ghazawi (Iraqi Accord Front) spoke of summoning the oil minister of the Kurdistan Regional Authority to explain on what legal basis the KRG signed these contracts.

Kurdish MPs defended the deals, but where the Arab MPs, both Sunni and Shiite, agree on something, they could always outvote the Kurds (who have altogether 58 seats in a 275-seat parliament if you count the Kurdish Muslim fundamentalists).

Parliamentarians also widely condemned Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashimi (from a Sunni Arab fundamentalist party) for rejecting a Japanese loan.

I can't find more on that issue but see Michael Penn at Japan Focus on the changing relationship of Japan and Iraq.

At our Global Affairs group blog, Manan Ahmed meditates on Pervez Musharraf's becoming a civilian president and the impact of the return to Pakistan of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, whom Musharraf overthrew in a military coup. The Saudis appear to have played a role in all this.

Farideh Farhi, at the same site, looks at the building tensions in Iran over the upcoming March parliamentary elections, between hard liners and conservatives. And Barnett Rubin posts on fighting drugs and working for peace in Afghanistan.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, newly posted letters from Bonaparte to Gen. Kleber and from Kleber to the French Directory. Bonaparte secretly slipped out of Egypt in August of 1799, leaving behind for Gen. Kleber in Alexandria a letter suddenly appointing him commander of the 25,000 or so remaining French troops in Egypt. Kleber was clearly outraged and complained bitterly about the surprise that Bonaparte had pulled on him.

Michael Schwartz at Tomdispatch.com on the real meaning of the surge and why Bush won't leave Iraq.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Elbaradei: An Attack on Iran would Guarantee that it Gets Nukes

The USG Open Source Center translates an interview in an Argentinian newspaper with International Atomic Energy Agency head, Mohamed Elbaradei, on how to deal with the Iranian nuclear research program. He cautions that a direct military attack would almost guarantee that Iran develops an atomic bomb.


'Argentina: IAEA Head Warns Against Using Force Against Iran
"Exclusive" interview with Mohamed ElBaradei, International Atomic Energy Agency head, by Nestor Restivo in Buenos Aires on 28 November: To use force against Iran could lead it to having atomic weapons. First paragraph is Clarin's introduction. Passages within slantlines are published in boldface
Clarin (Internet Version-WWW)
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

"I hope that what was done in Iraq will not be repeated. We have all learned a lesson and /I hope with all my strength that the situation in Iran will be resolved diplomatically."/ Egypt's Mohamed ElBaradei, who is now in Buenos Aires and gave an exclusive interview to Clarin yesterday afternoon, is at the center of a storm and is working against the clock. ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is supervising the Iranian (nuclear development) plan, and he is also under pressure from the United States and its allies to harden his stance toward Tehran. Both the United States and Israel have sharply attacked the IAEA report on Iran.

(Nestor Restivo) /Washington was highly critical of you and of UN inspector Hans Blix when you both denied that Saddam Husayn had weapons of mass destruction. Then the United States invaded Iraq. Is this is a similar scenario?/

(Mohamed ElBaradei) In both cases it is our duty to work with objectivity. I hope that there is no parallel (between these two cases) and that we have all learned a lesson. Despite all of our differences, I do believe that everyone sees a single solution for Iran: diplomacy.

(Restivo) /But you know that the military option is on the table.../

(ElBaradei) That would not solve anything. On the contrary, it would delay the Iranian plan but in the end it would not produce a lasting solution and would generate more problems in a region that is already a huge mess, the Middle East. There is no 100 percent guarantee, but we also do not have data indicating to us that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. But we do need an additional protocol about its new facilities.

(Restivo) /Is it helpful for the United States or Israel to be talking about a military option? Why would Iran allow more inspections if they (the facilities inspected) might eventually become military targets?/

(ElBaradei) Diplomacy has more to do with pressures, sanctions, and incentives for good behavior than with force. It used to be said that diplomacy was war waged by other means, but that ended with the UN Charter, which only allows war for self-defense, in the case of an imminent threat, or if the Security Council approves it. The use of force would put pressure on Iran to manufacture nuclear weapons, while right now it does not have large industrial facilities in operation. What Iran has is a nascent and small nuclear enrichment plan. But when a country is threatened it generally ends up with a military system.

(Clarin) ElBaradei, the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, a man who is highly respected in international diplomacy, arrived in Argentina yesterday. Here he met with President Nestor Kirchner and Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana and praised Argentina's nuclear development program. In the morning he also spoke with three of the media, including Clarin.

(Restivo) /Will there be more in-depth inspections in Iran?/

(ElBaradei) Yes, of course. Iran is a very complex case. For 20 years it developed a secret program and that made the IAEA's work very difficult, as we said in our report. I have insisted that they act with the utmost transparency and cooperation as there has been a loss of confidence in the nature of the program. And that is the key: the crisis of confidence. The most sensitive issue is uranium enrichment, for with enriched uranium it is possible to produce nuclear materials.

(Restivo) /Is Mahmud Ahmadinezhad's government on that course?/

(ElBaradei) We have not found that to be so, but we do not have a 100 percent guarantee. The fact that Iran is working actively on enrichment shows that they do have a program, but they do not have an urgent need as they still do not have a nuclear product. Of course the Iranians say that they should be self-sufficient and independent, that this is a scientific and civilian issue, a matter of technological development, and that this is for exports that could benefit them in the future. But if the IAEA cannot conduct inspections of Iran and prove that all of this is intended for peaceful uses, the crisis of confidence will continue. Nobody is questioning Iran's right. The problem is the timing (previous word in English) for exercising that right.

(Restivo) /What role is the Security Council playing in this? Neither China nor Russia will agree to new sanctions against Iran.../

(ElBaradei) The Security Council has asked Iran to suspend its enrichment program until confidence has been restored. And I have done the same. The more they cooperate and allow us access to documentation and other things, the more we will be able to rebuild confidence. We need what is known as the Additional Protocol, which would give us additional information and access to new sites. This is essential so that we can not only look at the past but also say that "we are now in a position to provide guarantees about the current projects." The Security Council should ask and apply pressure on Iran in order to get it to agree to negotiate and to make it realize that a permanent solution will only come through negotiations.

(Restivo) /Do you have confidence that this will happen?/

(ElBaradei) Yes, tomorrow negotiators from Iran and the European Union are meeting and I am optimistic. The nuclear issue has been a troublesome matter between the West and Iran for 50 years, since the fall of the elected government in Iran in 1953 until now. And not only the West and Iran should be involved in this dialogue, but other countries as well, countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine. The sooner some agreement is reached, the sooner we will see prospects for an ideal solution.

(Restivo) /Some US officials like Dick Cheney and Condoleezza Rice have taken a very tough stance toward you. How do you handle those pressures?/

(ElBaradei) The IAEA's function and its reports are highly technical. But we are also a multinational agency. And diplomacy and multilateralism are two sides of the same coin, so in addition to technical matters I also make use of diplomacy, I try to convince, argue, apply pressure, and use persuasion. Of course, my diplomacy is limited to dialogue, as there is no army behind it. I am indeed the target of pressures, but as long as you know that you have your feet on the ground and are sure of what you are doing, pressures are like Teflon; they do not stick. Moreover, I have gotten used to this, as we have been criticized by Saddam, by Korea, and now by Israel. We deal with extremely sensitive issues and we have to be very careful that we are not pushed in any direction. Everyone listens to us with great attention. This does seem rather schizophrenic, doesn't it? Governments hire us, but at times we make a judgment about them and it is difficult for them to accept the fact that, even though they are paying us, we can still judge them.

(In another report in Spanish on 29 November La Nacion's Paz Rodriguez Niell and Lucas Colonna add: "ElBaradei and Kirchner reviewed the Argentine nuclear plan for peaceful uses and agreed that the tense situation in the international community about Iran's nuclear development, which right now is drawing the world's attention, should be resolved in a peaceful manner.

"'All countries should cooperate to find a peaceful solution for Iran. I had a meeting with Kirchner, and we agreed that a solution based on negotiations must be found,' said ElBaradei.

(La Nacion) /"What is your assessment of Argentina's nuclear agenda?/

(ElBaradei) "Argentina is the only country in the region that has developed the complete nuclear fuel cycle and that is in a position to export nuclear technology, like the reactor that was sold to Australia, which is very pleased with it. Argentina may play a significant role as a possessor of this technology. It could be part of this possible rebirth of nuclear energy, and Argentina and Brazil may be in a position to cooperate by supplying nuclear fuel.

(La Nacion) /"How would you explain the case of Iran?/

(ElBaradei) "Iran is a complex case. For 20 years it developed an undeclared nuclear program underground. The IAEA has told Iran that it should behave with greater transparency about its project because people do not have confidence in the nature of its nuclear program. There has been progress, but we still need additional information. If a country has a nuclear enrichment capability, it is in a position to have the elements needed to produce nuclear weapons. Until the agency is in a position to say that everything in Iran is under its control and oversight, this lack of confidence will continue to exist.

(La Nacion) /"Venezuela has expressed its support for Iran's nuclear development program and is promoting that position in this region. Does that transform it into a country about which additional safeguards need to be applied in nuclear matters?/

(ElBaradei) "Many of the non-aligned nations say that Iran has the right to proceed with uranium enrichment. Nobody is questioning Iran's right; the problem is the moment it has chosen to exercise that right. It does not bother me if any country has a nuclear development project, provided that it is conducted under an IAEA inspection and verification program. It does draw our attention when a country has an enrichment program, for that could provide it with the technological capability to develop nuclear weapons. Venezuela has no reactors. It has a right to have them, provided that they are under this agency's supervision. I see no reason to worry about that.")

(In another report in Spanish on 29 November Clarin's Natasha Niebieskikwiat adds: "Official sources told /Clarin/ that in Buenos Aires ElBaradei discussed the characteristics of the report that he has just presented to the IAEA Board of Governors, which speaks of the existence of /progress in Iran's cooperation/ in shedding light on its nuclear program. Although the sources consulted stated that the government had merely noted this, it is known that a distinction is made here between Argentina's bilateral conflict with Tehran over the attack on the AMIA (Argentine-Jewish Mutual Association -- for which international arrest warrants have been issued for a handful of former Iranian officials -- and Iran's nuclear development program. Argentina is a country with a high level of nuclear development, so it is quite sensitive to any restrictions in this field.

"In speaking with the press yesterday, ElBaradei told /Clarin/ that he agreed with President Kirchner that a solution needs to be found for the entire Middle East situation, a solution based on /'negotiations, equity, and justice.'/

"The IAEA official also reported that he had offered Planning Minister Julio De Vido assistance from IAEA experts in monitoring the safety levels of Atucha II. CNEA (National Commission for Atomic Energy) technical personnel have reported that this plant, which is still under construction, uses a design and technology that are antiquated and even obsolete, and which are not in compliance with the international regulations that were put in place after the Chernobyl tragedy in 1986.")

(Description of Source: Buenos Aires Clarin (Internet Version-WWW) in Spanish -- nationalist, tabloid-format daily; highest-circulation newspaper.) '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

McCain blames Rise of Hitler on Ron Paul Not Invading and Occupying other Countries Branded 'Isolationism'

In a new low of despicable looniness, at the Republican debate in St. Petersburg, John McCain equated those Americans who want to stop militarily occupying Iraq with Hitler-enablers. He actually said that, saying that it was 'isolationism' of a sort that allowed Hitler to come to power.

It gives a person a certain amount of faith in one's fellow Americans that McCain was booed by the Republican crowd for this piece of calumny. Comparisons to Hitler should be automatic grounds for a candidate to be disqualified from being president.

But then McCain is the same person who joked about bombing Iran. He thinks that killing all those children from the air would be funny?

McCain also repeated his standard lie that Iraqis would attack the United States if US troops were withdrawn from that country. He contrasted the Vietnamese Communists, who, he said, just wanted to build their workers' utopia in Vietnam once the US left, with Iraqis, who he continues to confuse with Usamah Bin Laden (a Saudi living far from Iraq who never had anything to do with Iraq).

Of course, back in the early 1970s, if you had asked McCain, he would have said we have to fight the Vietnamese because of the Domino effect, and if we lost there then International Communism would be in our living rooms. Now, he says the Vietnamese Communists weren't expansionist at all, and just wanted socialism in one country.

So then, John, if that was true and there was never any danger of a domino effect, why did we sacrifice 58,000 US lives and kill a million to two million Vietnamese peasants? You just admitted we weren't in any danger from them, even if they defeated us.

But since you were wrong about the domino effect with regard to Vietnamese Communism (which I remember arguing in a class debate as a teenager in 1967 was just a form of nationalism), how do we know you aren't just as wrong or wronger about your fantastic Muslim domino theory? After all, international communism was a big important political movement to which many governments adhered. Al-Qaeda is a few thousand scruffy guys afraid to come out of their caves, who don't even have good sleeping bags much less a government to their name.

McCain is so confused that he thinks Shiite Iran is supporting "al-Qaeda." When I think that people who say these crazy things serve in the US senate and are plausible as presidents of our Republic, I despair a little. (When I see a nut job like Tancredo on the podium, he of 'let's nuke Mecca,' I despair a lot, but that is a different story.)

McCain also insisted that we never lost a battle in Vietnam. He still doesn't understand guerrilla war. What battle did the French lose in Algeria? You don't lose a guerrilla war because you lose a conventional set piece battle. Then it would be a conventional war and not a guerrilla one. You lose it because you cannot control the country and it is too expensive in treasure and life to go on staying there.

Ron Paul was only allowed to reply briefly to McCain's outrageous and mean-spirited diatribe. Although the transcript says he was applauded for saying that it was only natural that the Iraqis would want us out of their hair, just as we wouldn't want somebody invading and occupying us-- I heard a lot of booing in response to that point.

At another point, Paul made the point that the quiet parts of Iraq -- the Shiite deep south and the Kurdistan area in the north-- are the places where there are no foreign troops to speak of. Unfortunately, he forgot the name of the Kurds and seemed to get confused, so I'm not sure he got the point across.

Here is the exchange.

"McCain: . . . I just want to also say that Congressman Paul, I've heard him now in many debates talk about bringing our troops home, and about the war in Iraq and how it's failed.

(Applause)

And I want to tell you that that kind of isolationism, sir, is what caused World War II. We allowed...

(Applause)

We allowed ...

(Audience booing)

Cooper: Allow him his answer. Allow him his answer, please.

McCain: We allowed -- we allowed Hitler to come to power with that kind of attitude of isolationism and appeasement.

(Audience booing)

And I want to tell you something, sir. I just finished having Thanksgiving with the troops, and their message to you is -- the message of these brave men and women who are serving over there is, "Let us win. Let us...

(Applause)

Cooper: We will -- please. We will get to Iraq...

(Applause)

All right. Let me just remind everyone that these people did take a lot of time to ask these questions, and so we do want direct questions to -- the answers. We will get to Iraq later, but I do have to allow Congressman Paul 30 seconds to respond.

Paul: Absolutely. The real question you have to ask is why do I get the most money from active duty officers and military personnel?

(Applause)

What John is saying is just totally distorted.

(Protester shouts off-mike)

Paul: He doesn't even understand the difference between non- intervention and isolationism. I'm not an isolationism, (shakes head) em, isolationist. I want to trade with people, talk with people, travel. But I don't want to send troops overseas using force to tell them how to live. We would object to it here and they're going to object to us over there.

(Applause)"

The rest is here. This is what Ron Paul said about Iraq:

"Paul: The best commitment we can make to the Iraqi people is to give them their country back. That's the most important thing that we can do.

(Applause)

Already, part of their country has been taken back. In the south, they claim the surge has worked, but the surge really hasn't worked. There's less violence, but al-Sadr has essentially won in the south.

The British are leaving. The brigade of Al Sadr now is in charge, so they are getting their country back. They're in charge up north -- the Shia -- the people in the north are in charge, as well, and there's no violence up there or nearly as much.

So, let the people have their country back again. Just think of the cleaning up of the mess after we left Vietnam. Vietnam now is a friend of ours -- we trade with them, the president comes here.

What we achieved in peace was unachievable in 20 years of the French and the Americans being in Vietnam.

So it's time for us to take care of America first.

(Applause) "

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

13 Wounded, including 7 US Troops, in Baquba Bombing Biden says Surge Success 'a Fantasy' Da'wa splits, Some eye Jaafari as Leader

7 US troops were wounded along with 5 Iraqi civilians when a female suicide bomber detonated her payload in Baquba. The attack took place on Tuesday but was not announced until Wednesday.

Senator Joe Biden says that the idea that the US troop escalation or 'surge' is "working" in Iraq is a "fantasy" because there is no evidence that it has produced political progress or reconciliation.

A lot of the reduction in violence has been produced by artificial measures like forbidding vehicular traffic in certain areas or building big blast walls around neighborhoods, isolating them and destroying their retailers. These steps are good insofar as they prevent attacks. But they would only really be successful in the medium to long term if they contributed to a political settlement. The problem is that such measures are not sustainable. You got the big bombing in the pet market last Friday because the US military started letting people drive there again, creating an opening for a car bomber. So reducing violence is praiseworthy, however it is done. But if people are going to talk about "success," they have to show a sort of political progress such that when the cars start circulating again or the blast walls come down, you don't revert to civil war. The "surge" troops are already beginning to come home. Will the violence just return in their wake?

Biden is asking the right question. Even Republicans like Lindsay Graham and Saxby Chambliss seem to agree with his premise. But their apparent confidence that they can just change the Iraqi government at will is probably misplaced. Or at least there is no guarantee they will get something better if they do.

The Americans already helped unseat the elected prime minister, Ibrahim Jaafari. Speaking of whom, Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that various splinter groups of the Da'wa Party and offshoots of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq, unhappy that Jaafari was unseated, are attempting to convince him to act as their leader and to challenge al-Maliki as prime minister. Under the Iraqi constitution, 55 members of parliament can call a vote of no confidence against the prime minister. Al-Maliki is certainly vulnerable to such a maneuver.

The US has bribed 6,000 tribesmen to help guard the northern city of Hawija from Salafi Jihadi infiltration into northern Iraq. If I read the report correctly, they are receiving $275 a month for patrolling. That would be $1,650,000 a month or $19,800,000 a year for Hawija. Since the US was spending several billion dollars a month to keep tens of thousands of US soldiers in Iraq to do the same thing, it sounds like a bargain to me.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sadrists Demonstrate Sistani calls for an End to Sunni-Shiite violence Agreement of Principles is Criticized

Thousands of Sadrists demonstrated in downtown Baghdad for a second day on Tuesday, complaining about their marginalization and the high-handed policies of PM Nuri al-Maliki.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Sadr Movement and the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front both rejected the 'memorandum of understanding' between the US and Iraq signed by PM Nuri al-Maliki and US president George W. Bush two days ago. They complain that neither leader has the constitutional authority to make such an agreement without involvement of the legislature. They also complained that the document does not specify a timetable for withdrawal of US troops. One Sadrist called it a blueprint for a long-term civil Occupation of Iraq.

Meanwhile, Sunni and Shiite clerics are meeting in the Shiite holy city of Najaf.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who lives in Najaf, called for harmony between Sunnis and Shiites.

Journalists polled by Pew say that at least half of Baghdad, including the Shiite slum of Sadr City, is too dangerous to visit still. The journalists say that Iraq is much more violent now than when they first arrived. A lot of them also think that the US media coverage of Iraq is overly sunny.

25% of Blackwater security guards in Iraq use steroids or other mind-altering drugs.

Two US soldiers died in Iraq on Tuesday. A series of bombings and attackes in the area north of Baghdad has killed some 35 persons in the past 24 hours.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Pakistani Press on Sharif's Return

The USG Open Source Center rounds up the Urdu press in Pakistan on the return of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

Urdu Press Roundup on Prevailing Political Situation After Sharif's Return
Pakistan -- OSC Summary
Wednesday, November 28, 2007

The following is a roundup of excerpts from editorials and an article on the political situation after the return of former Prime Minister Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif to the country, published in the 27 November editions of six Urdu dailies:

Nawa-e Waqt Editorial Urges Opposition Parties To Take United Stance

Emphasizing that the homecoming of the leaders of two major political parties is posing a threat to the rule by President General Musharraf and his allies, the editorial states, "If the opposition fully concentrates on the supremacy of the Constitution for which civil society has laid the foundation, it will become difficult for Musharraf to continue in office against the provisions of the Constitution. Therefore, it will be a real test for all the opposition leaders, including Sharif and Bhutto, to rise to the occasion. The smallest lapse on their part at this juncture can cause irreparable damage to the unity and integrity of the country."

Jang Article by Irshad Ahmed Haqqani Sees Sharif, Bhutto Participating in Elections

Discussing the pros and cons of the two major parties in the country boycotting the elections, the article comments, "Although Bhutto and Sharif have not contacted or met each other, there is hope that they will hold mutual consultations in a bid to chalk out a joint strategy to counter the prevailing situation. Despite the decision by the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) to boycott ther elections, the two leaders will probably decide to participate in them. In spite of all the odds, this decision will be reasonable. It will be worrisome for the rulers, but they will not be in a position to prevent it."

Islam Editorial Discusses Sharif's Decision To Lead Nation

Discussing the political situation Sharif is facing after his return to the country, the editorial states: "If Sharif decides to boycott the election in spite of his return to the country, it will possibly benefit the Pakistan People's Party and the forces that pull the strings of power. The Sharif brothers have returned home after staying abroad in exile for a long time and wholeheartedly expressed their willingness to represent the people of Pakistan. It will be clear to some extent, in the next few days, as to how far the situation allows them to play this role and what sort of political farsightedness they show." Jang Editorial Calls For Burying Hatchets, Making New Beginning

Urging all the political stakeholders to work for the establishment of a conducive political environment in the country, the editorial says: "There is no doubt that the politics in the country have taken a new turn after the return of Bhutto and Sharif. All the political forces, including the government and the opposition, now need to work for the stability and promotion of democracy in the country and serve the larger interests of the nation. They should create such a congenial atmosphere that the holding of elections in a peaceful manner becomes possible and every candidate accepts the election results." Jinnah Editorial Discusses Legal Implications of Sharif Contesting Elections

Referring to the reports that Sharif will not be able to contest the elections because of his conviction in a case, the editorial writes: "Sharif is trying to create the impression that he has not returned to the country by striking some deal, while Bhutto has said that the homecoming of Sharif is an outcome of the National Reconciliation Ordinance. At the same time, Attorney General Malik Muhammad Qayyum says: 'Sharif's participation in the elections is difficult. He is facing cases with the National Accountability Bureau with regard to an airplane hijacking and the purchase of a helicopter; however, if he seeks remission of the penalties, there might be some way out.'"

Express Editorial Calls for Stability, Democracy in Country

Urging the government to show more magnanimity to enable the creation of a congenial political environment in the country, the editorial remarks, "It is expected that the government will give a free hand to political leaders to participate in the political process in the same spirit of magnanimity it showed in allowing them to return home and providing many facilities, including the provision of security. Such steps by the government will go a long way in the promotion of democracy and stability in the country. The national interests should be kept in mind while they work for the stability of the political system. Sharif has demonstrated positive thinking by saying that he does not believe in the politics of victimization. People expect a similar reaction from the government also."

Khabrain Editorial Says Election Only Means To Put Country on Track of Democracy

Supporting the statement of Sharif that the country's survival lies in holding of elections, the editorial states, "The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Group is one of the main political parties in the country, and people have expectations from it. These can be fulfilled only if the party takes part in the elections. The present situation is such that the parties in the APDM are insisting on boycotting the elections, but at the same time, they are filing nominations, which has increased the uncertainty. They should assume a decisive stance in favor of participating the elections and not boycotting them. By doing this, Sharif can also realize the desire he expressed by saying that he has returned to break the backbone of dictatorship. People will be bound to think that if he boycotts the elections, he has decided to stay away from the electoral process following a deal with the government." '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Al-Maliki Negotiates a Treaty with US Kurds Defiant on Oil Deals

The government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is negotiating a formal bilateral treaty with the United States. The question is whether the agreement will be submitted to parliament for ratification, and whether al-Maliki will be able to get a majority of parliamentarians to vote for it if so. Much of the work of the Iraqi government is never put through parliament and is just implemented by fiat by the executive.

Iraq's Kurds are undeterred by the warning by federal Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani that contracts signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government with foreign oil companies are null and void unless they are also signed by the federal government. The Kurds say they will go on making the contracts.

Marjorie Cohn on the need to keep fighting against the idea of a new war with Iran.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Dulaim: Al-Maliki is trying to Marginalize Sunnis

The USG Open Source Center translates an interview in the Iraqi newspaper Ilaf with Adnan Dulaimi, a leader of the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni fundamentalist, called in Arabic Tawafuq), the major Sunni Arab party in Parliament, with 44 seats out of 275. The IAF has withdrawn from the al-Maliki 'national unity' government. Excerpt:

'Dr Adnan al-Dulaymi says that "the Iraqi Government, represented by the prime minister, acts arbitrarily and unilaterally and seeks to exclude all political components, except for one or two components. This causes great imbalance in the political process. The ministers of Al-Sadr Bloc and then the ministers of Al-Tawafuq Front and some ministers of the Iraqi National Bloc have withdrawn (from the government), while the government has continued to function. This is evidence that all these ministries had no impact on the course of governance and that the prime minister is in charge of everything in a dictatorial and strict manner. This will lead to the failure of the political process, unless there is participation by the parliamentary blocs participating in the government, which was called a national unit government . . . I do not think the political process will advance; rather, it will fall behind. There will be paralysis in many administrative and executive aspects within the government, and we call for changing this and rectifying this situation quickly."

Al-Dulaymi believes that [Prime Minister Nuri] Al-Maliki's sources of strength that keep him in power after all these withdrawals "are the executive authority and what was stipulated in the constitution, in terms of concentrating executive powers in the hand of the prime minister. This is considered a flaw in the constitution. The president of the republic should participate in making the important decisions in the country. The constitution has concentrated executive powers in the hand of the head of government, and this imparts some dictatorial domination and despotism to the prime minister."

Al-Dulaymi is not afraid of the government's attempt to bypass his political bloc in light of the government's cooperation with the awakening councils of tribes in the Sunni areas, which constitute the popular base of Al-Dulaymi. He says: "We have ties with the awakening councils. Before his death, Shaykh Sattar Abu-Rishah, leader of Al-Anbar Awakening Council, God have mercy on him, announced that the awakening councils cannot be a substitute for Al-Tawafuq Front. We are in constant touch with these awakening councils. We do not think the government can make these awakening councils a substitute for Al-Tawafuq Front. We are MPs elected by the Iraqi people. We are the real, official representatives of an important political, demographic, and sectarian component in Iraq. We think the government will in the end be forced to deal with the MPs of Al-Tawafuq Front."

(Al-Khayyat) Weren't the awakening councils unwelcome by the government, which until recently had opposed the establishment of awakening councils? What has happened to change this? Besides, Shaykh Abu-Rishah was killed at a time when there was objection to the awakening councils? So do you think the government had a hand in this?

(Al-Dulaymi) The killing of Abu-Rishah at this stage was a strong blow to the awakening councils, especially in Al-Anbar. The investigation is still under way and we have not received any result of this investigation. There are many interpretations and leaks concerning this issue, but Al-Qa'ida is at the forefront of those who were accused of killing Abu-Rishah. The current government is trying to employ everything to its advantage, but it is unable to do this because those in charge of awakening councils are sensible people and they understand the aims of the government. These people should cooperate with the government, but this cooperation will not be against our areas or against Al-Tawafuq Front. We are in touch with the awakening councils and we seek cooperation.

I am absolutely certain that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki wants to exclude Al-Tawafuq Front and marginalize the Sunnis. He also wants sectarian rule in Iraq that is concentrated in a narrow circle of political components. He is in disagreement with Al-Sadr Trend. He is also in disagreement with Al-Fadilah Party and some of the blocs in the (Iraqi) Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) and in the (Unified Iraqi) Coalition (UIC) Bloc. What is happening in Karbala, Al-Diwaniyah, and Basra is the biggest evidence that there is no unity of views or agreement among these political blocs, which are brought together by the UIC Bloc. The Al-Fadilah Party has left the UIC. The Al-Sadr Trend has also left it. The UIC is vulnerable to more fragmentation and more division.

(Al-Khayyat) Doesn't the exit of Al-Sadr Trend and Al-Fadilah Party from the UIC Bloc and the government indicate that Al-Maliki is not sectarian and that he has a different agenda?

(Al-Dulaymi) No, Al-Maliki is sectarian. He seeks to monopolize power and exclude political entities that are within the UIC and that should be gagged and removed from power. What is happening in Karbala, Al-Diwaniyah, and Basra is the biggest evidence of this.

(Al-Khayyat) The prime minister has announced that 2008 is the year of reconstruction. Don't you think that this talk is closer to propaganda than reality, in light of the lack of qualified people and integrity?

(Al-Dulaymi) There will not be real reconstruction in Iraq unless there is political accord among all components of the Iraqi people. There is reconstruction in the Kurdistan Region because there is political accord and there is security. If the prime minister does not accept the demands that were presented by Al-Tawafuq Front, and if real cooperation is not achieved in all government posts, including ministers, under secretaries, and directors general, it will not be possible to achieve any reconstruction and it will also not be possible to achieve security. We hope that this will happen, but this requires the availability of introductions, most important of which are political accord and a national unity government. Otherwise, reconstruction will not take place, since there are many corrupt persons and there are many people who are lying in wait for Iraqi funds. There are now complaints in all parts of Iraq that there is no real reconstruction and that the funds allocated for reconstruction are going to the pockets of corrupt persons. The Integrity Commission and the Financial Control (Bureau) should be given an adequate opportunity to examine the accounts of everybody. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bush's Middle East Unravels Further

Bush's achievements in the Middle East were supposed to have been the 'Cedar Revolution' in Lebanon and the removal of Syria troops; holding fair elections in Palestine in January of 2006; and a deal to have Gen. Pervez Musharraf cohabit politically with Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People's Party.

As of this weekend, Lebanon does not have a president and the country's stability is in doubt. The Palestinian Authority is divided and is a mess, with the elected government having been overthrown by a US-backed coup. And opposition leader Nawaz Sharif has returned to Pakistan, possibly derailing the Benazir option but also provoking a crisis in the political elite about what they should do.

I don't think this is going well.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bombings Kill 10 in Baghdad Iraqi Parliament in Uproar over Debaathification Al-Hakim Defends Iran

On Sunday, the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki presented to parliament its bill revising the expulsion of ex-Baathists from government jobs and public life. The Shiite deputies in parliament essentially booed it, with the thirty Sadrist deputies pounding the table and making it impossible for parliament to conduct business. Parliament adjourned among shouting and scuffling. Shiite suffered under the Baath Party and are uncomfortable at what they see as an attempt to rehabilitate Baathists.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq (ISCI), has denied that Iran has behaved disruptively in Iraq. Al-Hakim lived much of his adult life in exile in Tehran and is still close to the ayatollahs.

Guerrillas set off a big bomb in downtown Baghdad on Sunday.

The bombing near the Health Ministry in Baghdad on Sunday, and the earlier bombing on Friday of a pet market demonstrate how artificial the relative reduction in violence in Iraq has been. One newspaper account revealed that the pet market had begun doing business again only because the US military forbade automobiles to drive in that area. Now, I'm all in favor of such measures as part of an over-all policy, and had suggested them myself at IC in the past. If car bombs daily kill a lot of people at a market, then obviously it is best you don't let people drive into that market. So I'm not complaining. I am just pointing out that if you get relative calm that way, you can't be sure it isn't just an inevitably temporary policy that is producing it. And sure enough, last Monday the US military had started letting people drive in the area of the pet market, and . . . kaboom! Car bomb? Yes. Car bomb.

This problem is why everyone admits that we need a political solution. Security precautions are temporary. Political solutions can be long-lived.

Reuters reports civil war violence for Iraq on Sunday:

BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed nine people and wounded 30 near the Health Ministry in Bab al-Muadham street in central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded two civilians in the Waziriya district of northern Baghdad, police said. A second roadside bomb exploded when Iraqi security forces arrived on the scene, killing one soldier and wounding six others, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Five corpses were found in various parts of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb targeting a U.S. patrol wounded six people in the city of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a guard at the headquarters of the Sunni Islamic Party in eastern Mosul . .

FALLUJA - Police detained four gunmen after an attack that wounded a policeman in Falluja, 50 km (30 miles) west of Baghdad, police said. . .

KIRKUK - One Iraqi soldier was killed and four were wounded when Iraqi forces opened fire on an explosives-laden truck speeding towards a checkpoint in the city of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. Three soldiers were still missing after the truck exploded, police added.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Miscellany and Annapolis

On the Annapolis "meeting" (downgraded from a conference), Mark Matthews of the Baltimore Sun contrasts the preparation and success of the Madrid peace conference in 1991 under Bush Sr., with the likely failure to accomplish much in Annapolis.

See also the comments of Dick Norton on Annapolis at our Global Affairs group blog.

A reminder that can sign up to receive Informed Comment by email if you don't like to read on the web. Tell your friends-- this is a side of the site that I would like to build up (at any one time about 1,000 readers get the postings this way, but the subscription list does not seem to grow beyond that number.)

And remember that mynew book, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East is the perfect Christmas present for that friend or relative who seems so hard to shop for.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Tanter on Rudd and Australian Security Policy

Professor Richard Tanter of the Nautilus Institute at RMIT in Melbourne writes from Australia:

'A small note on your comment on Kevin Rudd's election in Australia.

On the question of security policy, this is what I think will happen in the next half year:

1. Iraq: Rudd is committed to removing Australian troops from Iraq, and that is a popular position. In practice I think this will mean

a. Removing the Operation Overwatch Battle Group from Dhi Qar.

b. Retaining the ADF training group, mainly at Ali Base. For reasons I'll explain below it may even be boosted.

c. Retaining the RAN naval and RAAF air deployments in the Persian Gulf

d. It is not clear what will happen to the Australian components in the MNC command centres in Baghdad and Basra. My guess would be the latter will go, but the some elements former will stay. However, most of the Australian National Headquarters Middle East Area of Operations in Baghdad will transfer to Afghanistan (see below).

2. Rudd is very much persuaded of the "bad war, Iraq; good war, Afghanistan" position. Australia now has 1,000 troops in Afghanistan. [see Australia in Afghanistan, Nautilus Institute. There will be a redeployment of combat and support forces from one theatre to the other. Australian Afghanistan operations are now taking more casualties, though still nothing like US or Canadian levels. But they have increased sharply recently and this trend will continue. In April this year the Australian Special Operations Task group (SAS and other Army special forces) was somewhat hurriedly deployed back to Uruzgan less than 8 months after they were pulled out. Pulling out of Iraq would allow them and the protective group of the Reconstruction task Force at Tarin Kowt to be rotated more easily. (remember the ADF also has a big deployment [for its small size] in East Tiimor.)

Maybe some specialists will be left in the Camp Victory MNC HQ, but the longstanding concern inside the ADF about running the Afghanistan operation from Baghdad through the Australian National Headquarters - Middle East Area of Operations will result in shifting most ADF HQ functions and personnel to the National command Element in Kabul. There is a huge strain inside the ADF at the moment because of deployments in eight overseas operations, including three big ones - Iraq, Afghanistan, and East Timor

3. Iran: Rudd announced during the election campaign that a Labor government would initiate legal proceedings against Ahmadinejad on a charge of incitement to genocide. There has been no further development on that since then. Should the US attack Iran, Rudd would support the attack diplomatically with enthusiasm. It is unlikely the rest of his cabinet would be so willing, but Rudd will not be leading a Westminster-style government of Cabinet responsibility. He will certainly direct foreign policy. Rudd would be receptive to a US request for Australian military support, but would probably face resistance from ADF senior commanders on pragmatic grounds of over-stretch.

4. Rudd is best understood as Tony Blair, with many of the same skills, dispositions and weaknesses. All Labor prime ministers have supported the Aust-US [A(NZ)US] alliance - that's de rigueur in Australian politics. But Rudd is probably the most vocal supporter of the US alliance amongst postwar Labor prime ministers, and somewhat shocked many ALP supporters by declaring his loyalty to that alliance in his victory speech on Saturday night. This means he will be working closely with Bush to minimize the impact of the Iraq withdrawal commitment. Hence my thinking that it will be limited to combat troops and they in turn will be used to bolster the increasingly beleaguered, but unscrutinised, Afghanistan deployment. As mentioned he may also boost the training deployment in Iraq as another way of mollifying Bush.

Of course, the big positive gain from the Rudd victory is over climate change: here in Australia we are so desperate that even ratifying the Kyoto Protocol ten years too late (and recall that the deal Australia got at Kyoto was outrageously advantageous to it) will be great symbolically. Hopefully, something more substantive will come out of Bali, or if not Bali (because it's going to be hard) then in the ensuing protracted negotiations.

FYI, my own take on security policy during the election campaign was on an Australian Broadcasting Commission Radio National debate.'

Professor Richard Tanter
Director Nautilus Institute
RMIT University

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Firedoglake Book Salon: The DeLay Reaction

Check out the Firedoglake Book Salon on Sunday, All About The Benjamins: A “Follow The Money” Book Salon Preview.

It is the story of how Tom DeLay and other corrupt Republican politicians reduced taxes and regulations on big corporations in the name of helping the common person.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

New Australian PM Rudd will Withdraw Combat Troops from Iraq Shahristani: Kurdistan Oil Deals Void Bush scales back Expectations (again)

Another one bites the dust. World politics is littered with the political corpses of rightwing leaders who bucked their own public to join in George W. Bush's wars and misadventures. Spain, Italy, Poland, and in a way the UK are all object lessons in this regard. Now John Howard of Australia has joined their number Australia's new prime minister, Kevin Rudd, has pledged to withdraw Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq (Australia has about 500 more non-combat troops doing development work in Iraq, and it is not clear what will now be done with them). Rudd will also sign the Kyoto Treaty on fighting global warming. Rudd speaks Chinese and will stake out a new geopolitical position for Australia, while attempting to retain good or at least correct relations with Washington (next year this time that will likely be easier). Rudd's deputy prime minister is a woman (a first), and his team includes a rock star, former Midnight Oil singer Peter Garrett.

Hey, I want a government in the US that looks like this-- pro labor, against foreign military adventures, afraid of global warming, the leader speaks an Asia language, and a rock star is on the team.

Australia also has some troops in Afghanistan, which looks increasingly troubled. See Barnett Rubin's important recent postings on the situation there and Manan Ahmed's excellent entry on northern Pakistan at our Global Affairs Group Blog.

The NYT reports that the Bush administration is giving up on most of its political benchmarks for Iraq. Apparently the most they think they can now hope for is that Iraq will ask the United Nations to authorize an extension of the US mandate in Iraq, that parliament will pass a budget, and that the Iraqi parliament will pass a law allowing mid-level former Baath officials to hold government jobs if they have not been shown to have committed crimes in the Saddam period. Powerful blocs in parliament such as the Sadrists oppose the UN extension of the US mandate in Iraq, and most Shiites and Kurds also oppose changes in the de-Baathification regulations. I wonder if even these scaled-down political expectations are realistic. PM Nuri al-Maliki is a minority prime minister with very little support in his own parliament, and only his Kurdish alliance even allows him to stay in power.

Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani declared Saturday that all oil contracts signed with the Kurdistan Regional Government that were not pre-approved by the Baghdad federal government are null and void. Shahristani has been threatening to take this step for some time, out of frustration that Kurdistan is acting like an independent country and making its own petroleum deals. (Recently Hunt Oil, the owner of which is close to the Bush family, explored contracts in Kurdistan.)

Kurdistan officials charged that Shahristani is exceeding his authority and say that their procedures are in accord with the semi-autonomy granted provincial confederations by the Iraqi constitution (which recognizes regional rather than federal claims to new petroleum and mineral finds).

Shahristani is known to be close to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, and this tiff can be seen as a struggle between Shiites who want a fairly strong central government and Kurds who want a very weak one.

These kinds of disputes raise the question of whether it is even possible to develop Iraqi petroleum before there is a comprehensive political settlement in the country (see above for the likelihood of that happening any time soon).

Sawt al-Iraq reports that the Sadr Movement is rejecting any Iraq participation in the Annopolis conference on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said that participation would constitute an open recognition of the state of Israel, a step he opposes.

The US military is blaming what it describes as an Iran-backed "special group" cell inside the Shiite Mahdi Army for bombing a pet market in a Shiite part of Baghdad on Friday, which killed 9 and wounded 60 persons. The US military says it has forensic evidence and confessions by detainees to substantiate its claim.

This story doesn't make any sense to me, and I would need to see some evidence before I would accept it. Confessions under duress prove nothing, and circumstantial evidence has often fallen apart under inquiry by defense counsel. In Iraq, there is no defense counsel for "insurgents" arrested by the US military, and no way to question such allegations. The Mahdi Army is unlikely to bomb Shiites to make them want to join it. Shiites have already joined it in the hundreds of thousands. A crime has means, motive and opportunity. The motive being ascribed here makes no sense. If it had been a Sunni neighborhood, that would be different.

The US military depends on the Mojahedin-e Khalq terrorist organization, Iranian expatriates to whom Saddam gave a based in Diyala Province, for much of its intelligence on Iran. The MEK is a cult-like group of notorious liars and murderers linked to the American Neoconservatives, and so it is no wonder that the US military in Iraq is always coming out and saying the most amazing and implausible things about Iran.

McClatchy on Saturday's violence in Iraq.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, the British editors of the captured French letters from Egypt slam Napoleon.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Clerics Call for Stronger Security Forces, National Reconciliation

The USG Open Source Center rounds up Friday prayers sermons shown on Iraqi television this week:

'Round-up of Iraqi Friday Sermons 23 Nov
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, November 24, 2007

Major Iraqi television channels - Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah, Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Channel, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah, Baghdad Al-Furat, Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah, and Baghdad Al-Diyar - are observed on 23 November to carry the following reports on Friday sermons:

Al-Iraqiyah:

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic - government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network - is observed to carry the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Shaykh Dr Ahmad Abd-al-Ghafur al-Samarra'i, head of the Sunni Waqf Bureau, said that the terrorist Al-Qa'ida organization is breathing its last. In a Friday sermon at the Abu-Hanifah al-Nu'man Mosque, Shaykh Al-Samarra'i called on the Iraqis to unite their word and stand for the sake of completely eliminating the terrorist groups and consolidating security in the country."

Shaykh Al-Samarra'i says: "From the Abu-Hanifah al-Nu'man Mosque, it pleases me to salute the zealous men of Al-A'zamiyah, who suffered a great deal. It is time to restore their health, nurse their wounds, break their shackles, and restore smile to children."

The report adds: "Dr Al-Samarra'i said that the takfiri (holding other Muslims to be infidel) plans have been exposed and foiled thanks to the Iraqis' awareness, patience, and unity against all conspiracies."

Al-Samarra'i says: "Some sides have been paid to foment sectarian seditions among the Iraqi people and create differences among the Sunnis, Shiites, Arabs, Turkomen, Kurds, and Muslims and non-Muslims. However, we say that the Iraqis are one body and they are united. All Iraqis are now aware of the game and the conspiracy."

The report says: "In a Friday sermon today, [Shiite] Shaykh Hamid al-Sa'idi, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, stressed the importance of achieving solidarity and closing ranks to face challenges. At the same time, he stressed the need to upgrade collective action to rally round the national constants with the aim of overcoming the current circumstances."

Shaykh Al-Sa'idi says: "We should be armed with awareness in order to foil the plans of all troublemakers, those who seek to mislead the people, and all those who wreak havoc on earth to obstruct the great march of this good nation."

Baghdad Satellite Channel:

Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Television in Arabic - television channel believed to be sponsored by the Iraqi Islamic Party - at 0912 GMT is observed to carry the following Friday sermon from an unidentified mosque in Baghdad. Shaykh Dr Harith al-Ubaydi delivers the sermon:

In his Friday sermon, the preacher says that Almighty God's creatures are two groups, "one goes to Paradise and another goes to hell." He adds that God "tests people according to their faith." He says that anyone who "succeeds" in this test will go to Paradise and the one who "fails" will go to hell. The preacher then elaborates of God's "rewards to martyrs."

Al-Sharqiyah:

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic - independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic language daily Al-Zaman - is observed to carry the following report on today's Friday sermon by [Shiite Sadrist] Shaykh Abd-al-Hadi al-Muhammadawi, imam and preacher of the Al-Kufa Friday sermon:

"Shaykh Abd-al-Hadi al-Muhammadawi, imam and preacher of the Al-Kufa Friday sermon, warned Nuri al-Maliki's government of continuing its targeting of the Al-Sadr Trend in Iraq's southern governorates. He stressed that every action has an equal reaction. Al-Muhammadawi, who is a prominent leader in Al-Sadr Trend, which is led by Iraqi man of religion, Al-Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, addressed Al-Maliki's government by saying that this is your last chance to stop oppressing the Al-Sadr Trend and to halt the storming and arrest campaigns."

Al-Muhammadawi says: "You are put to a test today. We called for stopping these storming and arrest campaigns against our sons. We tell you that this is your last chance to stop chasing and oppressing our sons and to halt your attempts to weaken the Al-Sadr Trend. Every action has an equal reaction. So, do not use double standards and do not be hypocrites."

He adds: "After terrorism was defeated, this government has devoted its time to the Al-Sadr Trend. It is implementing the occupier's plans of attacking and weakening the Al-Sadr Trend. It launches a barbaric and fierce onslaught against our sons in the various governorates."

Al-Furat:

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, carries the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Friday preachers stressed the need to learn lessons from the religious and political life of Imam Al-Rida, may God's peace be upon him. The preachers praised the clear improvement in the security situation all over the country and the return of the refugees and the displaced to their areas."

Shaykh Salih al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "They have returned to their country and people after they have made sure that the security situation began to improve."

Shaykh Hamid al-Sa'idi, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, says: "We need to strengthen, develop, and rehabilitate our intrinsic powers and then submit another official request for a clear, transparent, and reasonable dialogue between the government and the multinational forces in order to define powers."

The channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program at 1808 GMT, as follows:

Shaykh Salih al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "These days, all Iraqis, with all their trends, sects, religions, and faiths; and all the sincere Iraqis, who constitute the majority, view Iraq with great hope which brings peace closer to them. The people these days can see that the security situation is improving from better to best. They are very delighted and happy while seeing that terrorism has been defeated and that conflicts have decreased significantly. They can also see that the honest and good people began to move in the arena for the sake of joint action in the interest of Iraq and its people."

He adds: "Those who had left Iraq out of fear of killing, destruction, and terrorism have begun to return to Baghdad in particular. They began to return in large numbers. Hundreds of families have returned over the past days from the places in which they lived away from home. They have returned to their country and people after they have made sure that the security situation began to improve."

Shaykh Hamid al-Sa'idi, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, says: "The most important issue one can monitor in the Iraqi file is the improvement in the security situation. This significant improvement in the security file is considered an advanced achievement. The stronger this achievement becomes, the more achievements will be made."

He adds: "Our security theory is based on the following elements, which we have emphasized and still emphasize: The first element is the participation of the popular forces, which we called popular committees. Some sides expressed fear that these popular committees would turn into new militias that would affect security. However, it became clear later that security was achieved thanks to what was called the awakenings of tribes and the popular committees."

He says: "The second element is modernizing and rehabilitating the security forces. We have been calling for modernizing and rehabilitating the Iraqi security capabilities, taking into consideration that the people of the country know about its affairs better than anyone else and that the Iraqi policeman is more capable to deal with the sons of his people."

He adds: "The third element in which we believed and in which we still believe and seek to achieve is national accord. There must be serious efforts to achieve national accord on the highest level possible. Iraq, dear brothers, can only be ruled based on partnership due to the sectarian and ethnic diversity and due to this vast geographical area. Therefore, there must be a realistic and real participation of the components of the Iraqi people in order to be able to run our affairs and so that the components of these people can live in peace, security, and stability. This necessitates holding dialogue among all components and setting the necessary rules and the standards to which we should resort. We have the right to say that we are all brothers and we are all the sons of this homeland and that there is no difference between a Shiite and a Sunni or between the Arab, Kurdish, Turkoman, and others. This is a sound statement. However, using these terms as slogans will never take us to the safe shore. What takes us to the safe shore is that all sides should recognize all sides."

Al-Sa'idi adds: "We need to strengthen, develop, and rehabilitate our intrinsic powers and then submit another official request for a clear, transparent, and reasonable dialogue between the government and the multinational forces in order to define powers and draw a road map for the future developments. Iraq should not remain under the hegemony and provisions of chapter seven, which restricts the sovereignty of the government and the state. We admit that we were governed by this decision due to the circumstances that we have passed through and the lack of development in the security file." He says: "We can call this liberating the political will and expanding the powers of the government."

Shaykh Dr Ahmad Abd-al-Ghafur al-Samarra'i, head of the Sunni Waqf Bureau, says: "The voice of the Iraqi people is raised from the mosque of the greatest imam today. This voice says God is great O my country. Today, the Iraqi tribes have risen, the factions of the mujahidin were valiant, and the preachers raised their voices from their pulpits and stood as one man against the criminals, the corrupters, slanderers, the misled, and those who, based on suspicion, killed and executed people and shed their blood. They stood against those who insulted the people of the inexperienced and insolent ones who targeted the people and allowed the shedding of the blood of the sons of Iraq. They have killed thousands of innocent people and beheaded scores of scholars. They issue fatwas (religious rulings) only on shedding the blood of people. All sides agreed to have one word in order to save the blood. Our blood was shed, our people were killed, our installations were destroyed, our hospitals were brought to a halt, our schools were closed, and our houses were demolished. Until when will this destruction and damage continue? I am honored to meet with the honorable people of Al-A'zamiyah, taking into consideration that their delegation visited me a month ago. They used to look at the tragedies of Al-A'zamiyah. They asked me: Are you pleased with what is taking place in Al-A'zamiyah? Can't you see our suffering? Can't you aid us and stop our bleeding by people who wreaked havoc on our land? I told them: May God bless you, I am with you and I am your brother. So, provide me with your men and I will provide you with the elite of my men and the best of my weapons. We agreed to sit together. We spread our maps, set the zero hour, and gave its youth the name of the lions of Al-A'zamiyah. Thus, the two groups met and God granted victory to us. Victory was achieved by the sons of Al-A'zamiyah."

Al-Sayyid Yasin al-Musawi, imam and preacher of the [Shiite] Al-Abbasiyah Shrine, says: "The fourth round of talks is expected to be held among Iraq, Iran, and the United States to discuss the Iraq issue. This issue has a positive effect on the region in general, and on these three states in particular."

He adds: "We believe that this dialogue is in the interest of these three countries. Based on this, we hope that these talks will be a continuation of the previous rounds in terms of tackling the tragic conditions of the Iraqi people. The tragedy has reached a climax." . . .'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

20,000 Brain-injured Troops Not Counted as War Casualties by Pentagon Sectarian Shiite Tribes denounce Iran Chretien Proud of Bucking Bush

Whoever is responsible for this disgusting travesty is an automatic candidate for Keith Olbermann's "Worst Person in the World." My guess is that the trail will lead back to Donald "its not a guerrilla war" Rumsfeld and Richard Bruce "most prominent traitor in American history" Cheney. Gregg Zoroya of USA Today reports that 20,000 US troops who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and suffered brain injuries were never classified as wounded by the Pentagon and are not included in the official statistics for the wounded issued by the Department of Defense. Although some of the under-reporting of this condition could be inadvertent, the scale of it strongly suggests an underlying policy.

Former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien says that it was among the great victories in his life that he stood against US pressure to join in the Iraq War.

Uh, the purpose of a wise and mature US foreign policy is to avoid close allies ending up speaking like that. Bush has destroyed half a century of good will among NATO allies, most of whom now think they are better off not following Washington's lead. Leaders who threw in with Bush, like Aznar of Spain and Berlusconi of Italy, have been ushered off the political stage by enraged publics. As someone who grew up when the US (and its currency) was respected by most Europeans and other North Americans, I am sad to see the way W. has debased our position and humiliated our country.

Among the biggest irritants in NATO countries against the US now is the mission in Afghanistan, which seems both open-ended and ultimately fruitless. Canada did not dodge that bullet, and has lost dozens of soldiers there, though you would not know it from reading US newspapers. On Friday, Pushtun guerrillas killed an Australian soldier in Uruzgan province (Mulla Omar's birthplace), and others killed 3 civilians, attacked a police checkpoint and killed 7 officers and kidnapped 6 others. (What is the mission? If the mission is to get Pushtuns to stop worrying about Islam and start welcoming foreign troops in their country, I wouldn't hold my breath).

The tribal sheikhs of southern Iraq who have gotten up a petition against Iranian influence in their region should be viewed with some suspicion. I heard supporters of the petition interviewed on Aljazeera today and they were looney as the day is long. One was maintaining that hundreds of thousands of Iranians have flooded into southern Iraq (not true if you mean residents; Iran is nice compared to southern Iraq and nobody is immigrating. You could see that level of immigration on satellite photos!)

The other interviewee supporting the petition was, I swear to God, a member of the Army of Heaven millenarian group that is alleged to have marched on Najaf last January with the aim of killing Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other Shiite clerical leaders in hopes of thereby provoking the coming of the Twelfth Imam, the Promised One of Shiite Islam. This man defended the Army of Heaven as Iraqi and intimated that it had been attacked by the Iranians.

So these tribal sheikhs petitioning against Iran are probably linked to Iraqi nativist and sectarian movements like that of Mahmoud al-Hasani al-Sarkhi (who leads an anti-Iranian offshoot of the Sadr Movement) and even the Army of Heaven. Among their primary targets is the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, led by cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. ISCI was formed by Iraqi expatriates at the suggestion of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1982 in Iran and long received money and training from Tehran. ISCI dominates the provincial governments of most southern Shiite provinces, to the annoyance of local Iraqi Shiites unconnected to them or Iran, who feel excluded from patronage. (The petition may even be a way of extracting more patronage from Iran and ISCI).

No doubt our own American "Army of Heaven" will wax dreamy-eyed about these Iraqi nativists working against Iranian influence. I wouldn't get so excited about it if I were they. Rural sectarian Shiism might not look so attractive in power.

Reuters reports political violence for Friday, including an attack by guerrillas on Mosul police.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sadrists: Will Purge Mahdi Army Reject Iranian Troops for Iraq Demand Election Law Reform

The USG Open Source Center translates an article from the Iraqi newspaper "Ilaf," on planned housekeeping inside the Sadr Movement, in which leaders plan to purge hundreds of alleged rogue elements from the paramilitary Mahdi Army. Sadrist leader Baha' al-A'raji also called for electoral reform and rejected an Iranian plan to have Iranian troops replace American ones in Iraq. (The Sadrists are Iraqi nativists and usually have bad to indifferent relations with Iran). Excerpts below (emphases added):


'Al-Sadr Trend MP on Plans To 'Expel Hundreds From Al-Mahdi Army,' Iranian Role
Report on interview with Iraqi MP Baha al-A'raji, a leader in the Al-Sadr Trend, by Usamah Mahdi, from London; place, date not given: "Iraqi MP Baha al-A'raji, Leader in Al-Sadr Trend, Tells Ilaf: We Will Expel Hundreds From Al-Mahdi Army, And We Reject Sending Iranian Forces"
Ilaf WWW-Text
Friday, November 23, 2007 . . .

Iraqi MP Baha al-A'raji, a leader in the Al-Sadr Trend, led by Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, has announced that preparations are under way to expel hundreds of the offending members of Al-Mahdi Army. He said that the Trend supports dissolving the Council of Representatives and will work for achieving this. He noted that a national plan about the Iraqi situation is being prepared. He strongly rejected sending Iranian forces to Iraq to replace the Multinational Forces. Al-A'raji, who is chairman of the Legal Committee at the Council of Representatives, made these remarks in an interview with Ilaf.

On the Al-Sadr Trend's withdrawal of its six ministers from the government, he said that the cabinet, in its current composition, was imposed on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki because of the sectarian and partisan allotment of shares and that the Iraqi people has paid the price for this. He added that the Trend has authorized Al-Maliki to appoint technocratic and independent ministers instead of its withdrawing ministers, away from sectarianism. . .

Effectiveness of Agreement Between Al-Sadr Trend and Supreme Council

On the effectiveness of the agreement signed between the Al-Sadr Trend and the (Iraqi) Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) [ed. note: IC calls it the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq with the acronym ISCI, in accordance with the organization's own preference] in ending the clashes between the armed men of the two sides, Al-A'raji said that this depends on the seriousness of the two sides because it was a Sharia-based, religious agreement to prohibit the shedding of Iraqi blood, through forming joint committees in the governorates that seek to activate and implement it. He said that the governorates' councils are the main obstacle to activating this agreement. The Al-Sadr Trend did not participate in the previous elections of these councils. The law on these elections has led to the election of persons who are unable to provide the services needed by the citizens, and so the members of these councils have made big mistakes. While the membership of these councils is controlled by the IISC and the Badr Organization, the Al-Sadr Trend has masses in these governorates, and these masses demand achievements through providing essential services for the citizens. Therefore, tension and friction have occurred between the officials at the councils and the citizens, who demand their right to these essential, vital services. He noted that the elections law (on governorates' councils) should be amended so that election will be on an individual basis, and not on the basis of lists. The purpose of this is to elect specialists, engineers, and technicians, who are able to meet the needs of citizens, to the governorates' councils.

Elections of Governorates' Councils and Fears of Shiite-Shiite Fighting

On whether he believes that the upcoming elections of governorates' councils will lead to Shiite-Shiite fighting between the supporters of Al-Sadr Trend and the IISC, Al-A'raji said that in order to avert this fighting, it is important to issue the new law on the elections of governorates' councils to organize the electoral process. He added that it is possible to avert such fighting if this electoral process is conducted on a legal basis. He, however, warned that the situation will become tense if the elections are held based on the old law. Hence, the danger of closed election lists and the need for open lists. Al-A'raji added that he himself was elected member of the Council of Representatives for the southern governorate of Dhi Qar because of the closed lists, although he has only visited this governorate two times in his lifetime and after he was elected.

Restructuring Al-Mahdi Army and Expelling Hundreds of Its Members

In reply to a question about the measures that have been taken to implement Al-Sadr's decision restructuring Al-Mahdi Army, the leader in the Al-Sadr Trend noted that the organization of this army is not subject to records or documents. Therefore, some (political) parties and external sides, including the intelligence services of many countries, have pushed many persons to join this army and engage in practices that offend it. He said that this army is ideological and it pursues a national Islamic line. However, the practices of some of its members are inconsistent with this line. Hence, Al-Sadr's decision freezing the army in order to give its leaders the chance to closely examine the actions of those (members). He said that the Trend has formed committees, which are currently examining the practices of many of the offending members. The committees will issue lists of hundreds of the army members who will be expelled. He noted that these offending members constitute a strong line, have extensions, and receive internal and external assistance, in which some neighboring countries, which do not want anything for the good of Iraq, are involved.

On the number of the members of Al-Mahdi Army, he said that there is no exact figure because it is not a regular army and it does not have records that document the number of its members. He, however, noted that around 60 percent of males in the southern governorates, who are aged between 18-40 years, are members in Al-Mahdi Army.

Iran and Its Armament Ties With Al-Mahdi Army

In reply to a question about the armament relationship between Iran and Al-Mahdi Army, supplying it with (armor-) piercing explosives, and recruiting a number of its members, Al-A'raji stressed that there is no relationship between the Sadrist line and Iran. He said that the proof of this is that there is an ideological disagreement between martyr Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, father of Muqtada, and the religious authority and scholars in Iran. He noted that this disagreement is documented through the fatwas (religious rulings) issued by the two sides.

He said that Iran is a neighboring and Muslim country and Al-Sadr Trend is a religious line. Hence, the closeness between the two sides. However, the Trend rejects any action, which harms Iraq and helps fragment it, by any country. He pointed out that the problem in Iraq is the Iranian-US conflict, since Iran is afraid of the Americans after they became its neighbors through the presence of their forces in Iraq in a way that shifts the conflict of the two sides to Iraq. He added that amidst this conflict, the Iranians may have managed to recruit offending members of Al-Mahdi Army and armed them to use them in armed operations against the Americans.

Al-Sadr Trend's Position on Constitutional Article 140 on Kirkuk

On Al-Sadr Trend's position on the non- implementation of Article 140 of the Constitution on Kirkuk, given that the fixed period for this will expire at the end of this year, Al-A'raji said that this article is constitutional and it should be handled accordingly and away from political stands. He, however, noted that what is happening now is the opposite. The political forces are acting toward this article based on a nationalist and political principle, and this is a big mistake. He noted that this article was based on three foundations; namely, normalization, census, and referendum. If the first two are implemented in a legal and constitutional manner, there is no objection to holding the referendum. Otherwise, the Trend will have reservations.

On Al-Sadr Trend's position on annexing Kirkuk to the Kurdistan Region, Al-A'raji said that the Trend believes that the Iraqis are the ones who decide this. He added that if the first two steps (normalization and census) are legal, the referendum (result) will run counter to all expectations, without explaining what he means by this.

Al-Sadr Trend's Position on Dissolving Parliament

On Al-Sadr Trend's position on what was raised recently at a session of the Council (of Representatives) about dissolving it, Al-A'raji said that the idea of dissolving it is good, provided that it will be preceded by enacting a new elections law, which can correct the mistakes of the political process. He added that some parties reject dissolving the parliament, but the Trend will continue to demand dissolving it.

The Blocs Withdrawing From the Government and Forming Unified Front

In reply to a question about whether the political blocs, which have withdrawn from the government, plan to form a unified front, the leader in the Al-Sadr Trend said: Yes, there are plans to form an opposition front or group. There are several plans in this respect.

He said that the Trend will present a national plan before the end of next month. This plan is currently under study by the leader of the Trend, Muqtada al-Sadr, and his assistants. The plan stresses the need to form Iraqi governments away from sectarian or partisan allotment of shares. It also stresses the need to enforce many articles of the constitution and form committees among the political forces that work for building establishments for the state. He said that the plan focuses on the need to achieve openness on the Arab and regional countries. He noted that Iraq is made up of a Shiite majority in the middle of a Sunni environment, which is afraid of ruling it by the Shiites. Therefore, it is important to open up to this environment, reassure it, and acquaint it with the truth of the Shiites and that they are Arabs, and not Persians, as some people describe them.

On the date of announcing this national plan, Al-A'raji said that it will be announced before the end of next month from the Council of Representatives or from Al-Najaf, where the headquarters of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Trend, are located.

Asked if forming a non-sectarian or non-partisan government, as stipulated in the plan, means changing the current government, Al-A'raji said that it does not necessarily mean this, but it is possible to reshuffle this government and appoint competent, independent ministers, who are not affiliated with parties.

Rejecting Iranian Proposal on Replacing the Foreign Forces With Iranian and Arab Forces

In reply to a question about the Trend's position on the Iranian Government's proposal for replacing the Multinational Forces in Iraq with Iranian and Arab forces, including Syrian forces, Baha al-A'raji, a leader in the Al-Sadr Trend, said that the Trend wants a free Iraq. Consequently, it rejects occupation, just as it rejects interference in the affairs of Iraq by any country, even if it is close to the Trend's inclinations concerning the Iraqi issue. He added that implementing the Iranian proposal will make the fire in Iraq more intense than it is now, because the Iranians will have an important role in a certain place and the Syrians will have an important role in another place, and the fighting will be fiercer and more harmful. He said that it is important to seek to liberate Iraq and run its affairs by the Iraqis themselves; therefore, "we do not support the Iranian call at all." '

(Description of Source: London Ilaf WWW-Text in Arabic -- London Internet daily providing independent coverage of Arab and international issues. URL: Elaph.com)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Dozens Killed in Bombings, Clashes 3 Mn. Iranian Pilgrims Expected 41% of Jihadis are Saudis

Guerrillas detonated a bomb in a Baghdad pet market on Friday morning at 9 am, killing at least 13 persons and wounding others.

Two important gunbattles were fought in Iraq on Thursday, one southwest of Baghdad and one in the volatile Diyala Province east of Baghdad. CNN alleges that Salafi Jihadis of the "Islamic State of Iraq" organization attacked members of the local tribal "Awakening Council" at Hor Rajab southwest of the capital, killing 15 and wounding 8, without apparently losing any dead themselves. Hor Rajab was the site of a massacre on October 7 of Sunni Arabs by invading Shiite Mahdi Army militiamen.

Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that the attackers killed 3 Iraqi troops at Hor Rajab, and wounded 3 others. They also took away from the troops one of their Hummers. They then attacked the HQ of the Awakening Council, killing several tribesmen there. An eyewitness told al-Hayat that there were dozens of gunmen (apparently about 100 in all), and that they were dressed in the uniforms of Iraqi troops. He alleged that the invaders were firing indiscriminately.

The tribal Awakening Council had kicked the Islamic State of Iraq out of Hor Rajab, which had served as a regional outpost for the organization, last month. Some 4,000 families had moved back to the town as a result. When a mass grave was discovered, perpetrated by the Islamic State, locals had flocked there to attempt to identify their loved ones. The dead turned out to be members of the Awakening Council who had lost battles with the Islamic State last September.

The Islamic State then moved out to the rural areas around the town, where it continues to receive support from the Jubour and Al-Bu-'Aytha tribespeople in the area. On Wednesday, the Islamic State of Iraq (Southern Branch) had distributed broadsheets in the village, warning that they would violently punish the Awakening Council members for collaborating with the Americans.

In Diyala province, at the village of Qali'ah north of Baquba, Islamic State in Iraq guerrillas attacked Shiites of the al-`Anbakiya tribe but were fought off by the local tribesmen. They killed 8 Sunni fighters and lost three men, all irregulars. (They are said to have been backed by local Iraqi army troops, though it is suspicious that none of the latter was killed, only the villagers.) Qali'ah is mostly Shiite but is surrounded by Sunni villages under the influence of the Islamic State in Iraq.

Elsewhere, Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that authorities in Diwaniya southeast of Baghdad distributed broadsheets to the public containing confessions of members of the local Mahdi Army militia to having committed murders and kidnappings. a spokesman for the Sadr Movement in the city denounced the material as libellous and attributed it to the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (ISCI), describing the broadsheets as a propaganda campaign against the Sadrists. He said the so-called confessions were coerced by torture.

Iran is negotiating with Iraqi authorities to increase the number of pilgrims coming to Shiite shrines in Iraq from the present 500,000 to 2 or 3 million. You know, if 500,000 Iranians are passing through Iraq every year, and the US has never captured any of them under arms, then Iran can't possibly be the source of many of Iraq's problems. In fact, without the pilgrim revenue, Najaf and Karbala and Kadhimiya in Baghdad would be far, far poorer.

A treasure trove of guerrilla documents, according to the NYT, shows that 41% of the foreign jihadis in Iraq come from Saudi Arabia, which is also a major source of funding for them. Another big group comes from Libya, with Yemenis the third largest cohort. There were none from Lebanon, despite constant US accusations of Hizbullah involvement. Of the some 25,000 alleged insurgents in US custody in Iraq, only 390 are foreigners. 4/5s of the Iraqis and nearly all the foreigners are Sunni Arabs. (The US appears to have never captured a Shiite Iranian fighter in Iraq.) The statistics raise the question of why US military officials are always focusing on Iran and Hizbullah so much, when they clearly are not very much of the problem, while never, ever, mentioning the Saudi issue. The Guardian has more.

Iraqi army troops have reportedly surrounded the Kurdish Mahmur camp near the border with Turkey, with the aim of cutting it off from guerrillas of the Turkish Workers Party (PKK).

Cholera is still stalking Iraq with 80 new cases reported and outbreaks in the slums of East Baghdad.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Pink: Dear Mr. President

Pink - Dear Mr. President

Dear Mr. President
Come take a walk with me
Let's pretend we're just two people and
You're not better than me
I'd like to ask you some questions if we can speak honestly

What do you feel when you see all the homeless on the street
Who do you pray for at night before you go to sleep
What do you feel when you look in the mirror
Are you proud

How do you sleep while the rest of us cry
How do you dream when a mother has no chance to say goodbye
How do you walk with your head held high
Can you even look me in the eye
And tell me why . . .

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Abu Abd and Baghdad Security US Soldier Killed, dozens of Iraqis Killed or Wounded

Al-Hayat writing in Arabic profiles Sa'd Uraibi al-Ubaidi, known as "Abu Abd", the 'tribal awakening' leader who, it claims, now controls most of the Sunni Arab neighborhoods of Baghdad. Al-Ubaidi, 35, had served as an officer in the Baath Army. He joined the guerrilla movement against the Americans, being active in the "Islamic Army." He then joined a 'tribal council' and allied with the Americans against the Salafi radicals, some of whom style themselves 'al-Qaeda.' He told al-Hayat that he had had no choice but to ally with the Americans once "al-Qaeda" turned into Iraq's 'biggest enemy.' He said he and his companions had once fought the Americans "honorably," but that they now conclude 3-month-long security agreements with them, which can be renewed.

Six months ago, Abu Abd formed and began heading the Awakening Council of the Knights of Mesopotamia, most of the 600 members of which had earlier belonged to the 'Islamic Army.' It is based in the Baghdad districts of al-Amiriya, al-Khadra, al-Jami'a, and al-Adhamiya. He said that the US needs "resistance units" to control hot districts so as to establish security in them, something that Iraqis, he said, need as well. Al-Hayat maintains that his 600 fighters receive a monthly salary of $360 from the US, and that recently 300 of them were regularized as members of the al-Amiriya district police force after they passed medical exams. He maintains that there should be further such integration of his men with government institutions. Abu Abd says that in addition to salaries, the US provides logistical support and advanced weapons, as well as targeted help in case they get into a major firefight with the Salafi Jihadis. Abu Abd says that 70 Shiite families have now been enabled to return to mainly Sunni Arab al-Amiriya, because of the improved security his men provide.

Reuters reports civil war violence in Iraq for Wednesday. Excerpts:

' BAGHDAD - A U.S. soldier and an Iraqi interpreter were killed when a roadside bomb detonated near their patrol in eastern Baghdad on Tuesday, the U.S. military said. Three U.S. soldiers were wounded. . .

DIWANIYA - Police arrested 30 people, accused of assassinations and other attacks against Iraqi security forces, in the city of Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, over the past 48 hours, police said.

RAMADI - At least six people were killed when a car exploded outside a courthouse being guarded by police in the city of Ramadi, 110 km (70 miles) west of Baghdad, one police officer said. Another police source put the death toll at four, with 15 wounded.

BAGHDAD - Three policemen were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded near their patrol in Mansour district of western Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - The Iraqi army found six decomposed bodies buried in the gardens of two abandoned houses in the Saidiya district of southern Baghdad, the Iraqi army said.

LONDON - Two British military personnel were killed in Iraq on Tuesday when their Puma helicopter crashed near Baghdad, the Ministry of Defence said. The ministry said it was too early to speculate on the cause of the crash. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Pakistani Newspapers Critical of Bush Policy

The USG Open Source Center translates excerpts from Pakistani newspaper editorials concerning the visit over the weekend of US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte to Islamabad. The visit has generated controversy in the United States, as well, since Negroponte declined publicly to condemn Musharraf's dismissal of the Supreme Court.


'Pakistan: Urdu Press Roundup on Visit of US Deputy Secretary of State
Pakistan -- OSC Summary
Wednesday, November 21, 2007 . . .

The following is a roundup of excerpts from editorials and a report on the visit of the US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte to Pakistan, published in the 20 November 2007 editions of six Urdu dailies:

Nawa-e Waqt Magazine Report Sees US Pursuing Its Own Agenda

Discussing the news conference addressed by the US diplomat on the conclusion of his visit, the report states: "Deviating from the real topic during his news conference before his departure, US Deputy Secretary of State Negroponte made mention of the unprecedented economic development and added opportunities for women under Musharraf. An official in the US Embassy says that the US deputy secretary had raised the issue of US assistance, including military assistance for Pakistan, in his meeting with President Musharraf. According to the official, Negroponte told the Pakistani leader that they were facing pressure from the Congress to take some punitive steps, including a cut in aid. During the visit, the US deputy secretary held two meetings with Vice Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kiyani. It is a fact that he spent more time with Gen Kiyani than with Gen Musharraf. The US diplomat says that this should not be made a basis for any speculation. Negroponte said that he had asked Gen Musharraf to fulfill his pledge of quitting the post of Army chief. He said that, unfortunately, recent measures, including the gagging of the media and the arrest and detention of political and human rights activists are contrary to all the reforms that were introduced during the recent years. He said that a continuation of this policy would reverse the progress Pakistan had made."

Islam Editorial Alleges US Wants to Protect Its Own Interest in Pakistan

Reading between the lines of the visit of John Negroponte to Pakistan, the editorial remarks: "The visit of the US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte to Pakistan was part of the same efforts to protect its own interests. Although addressing a news conference after meeting President Gen Pervez Musharraf, he said that he had demanded to lift the state of emergency, remove the curbs on the media, besides stressing the need to release detained political activists. According to many analysts, the real agenda of the visit was not the lifting of emergency and establishment of genuine democracy in Pakistan but securing assurances about the protection of US interests in the future political setup in the country. He succeeded in this objective to a great extent."

Pakistan Editorial Doubts US Intentions Behind 'Demands'

Questioning the US sincerity in the establishment of democratic rule and the lifting of the state of emergency in Pakistan, the editorial says: "The United States started expressing concern when emergency was imposed in Pakistan due to an extraordinary situation. At this juncture, it started lamenting for the people of Pakistan and the moderate elements. Instead of supporting the interests of the people of Pakistan, the US demands are covertly trying to accomodate the interests of Washington and the multinational companies. These companies want to have a conducive environment in Pakistan in which they could buy Pakistan's assets and indulge in economic plunder."

Ausaf Editorial Claims Caretaker Government Not Acceptable to US

Highlighting the visit of Negroponte to Pakistan during which he did not meet any official of the caretaker government, the editorial comments: "John Negroponte's failure to meet the caretaker prime minister indicates that the United States has not wholeheartedly accepted the interim government formed under the emergency with a view to hold elections. It also shows that the United States has some reservations about it. The steps taken by President Musharraf in the future will comprehensively prove how far Negroponte has succeeded in exerting influence on him."


Jang Editorial Sees Musharraf Govt Weaken if it Fails to Lift Emergency

Discussing the meeting between President Musharraf and the visiting US diplomat, the editorial states: "While answering a question about removing restrictions imposed on the media, lifting of emergency, and release of detained political workers, the US Deputy Secretary of State said that President Musharraf had pledged to take necessary steps because diplomacy failed to give any immediate results. If Musharraf, however, fails to lift the emergency, the capability of his government to hold elections in an acceptable manner will weaken. President Musharraf should move the process of political evolution forward by taking the necessary steps."


Khabrain Editorial Highlights Economic Impact of Prevailing Situation

Urging the county's political parties not to expand their protest to a level where the agitation may have adverse impact on economic growth, the editorial comments: "While demanding of President Musharraf to lift the emergency, and doff uniform, the US Secretary of State John Negroponte also said, 'the people of Pakistan have seen unprecedented economic growth during the past few years.' If the opposition parties create an unfavorable law and order situation in the country by boycotting the elections and resorting to agitation, the economic growth will no more be unprecedented." '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Congress Digs in its Heels over Iraq Funding; Iran-US Talks on Iraq Security

My analysis of this NYT piece is that Bush and the Republicans are betting that they can portray as irresponsible and unpatriotic the Democrats in Congress who decline to give Bush all the war funding he wants. The Democrats are betting that the public desperately wants them to stop the Iraq War, which is hemorrhaging money and costing American lives, all for goals that are unclear. If I were a betting man, I'd put a big bet on the Democrats in this regard, and even without a bet I predict that the Republicans are going to suffer an earthquake-like reversal next November.

Iran and the US have agreed with one another to conduct a further round of talks on improving security in Iraq. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) has been working hard on setting up such a meeting. He was in Iran for several months this fall undergoing chemotherapy.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has expressed severe reservations about the ISCI plan to create a Shiite regional confederacy out of 8 provinces in southern Iraq. If al-Maliki breaks with ISCI on this issue, he may lose his largest remaining Shiite partner. On the narrow issue of centralized government, the Sadr Movement will support him (as will the Sunni Arabs in parliament). But they do not like him on a lot of other issues and without ISCI I cannot see how al-Maliki can survive politically.

Al-Maliki also launched a diatribe against Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a fundamentalist Sunni, for, he said, having declined to sign 26 bills sent him for signature by parliament. All three members of the presidential council have to sign off on all laws. The Arabic original of the al-Hayat interview on which the NYT story is based is reprinted here at Sawt al-Iraq.

A transcript of my appearance on the Lehrer News Hour (PBS) is now on the web.

The Asia Times reports on the dire situation of Falluja, a city some have been extolling as a symbol of Iraq's turnaround.

The Associated Press continues to point out that the US military's charges against Pulitzer prize-winning photographer, Bilal Hussein, remain infuriatingly vague. Hussein's American colleagues, who worked closely with him, tend to find the charges completely implausible, and AP says it has never been given convincing specifics. Since the US military and the Iraqi government both have an interest in the violence in Iraq not being documented, they are highly interested parties when it comes to prosecuting photographers. Interested parties need to be double-checked when they can act as judge, jury and executioner. The US holds 24,000 Iraqis, with many of them having never been charged with anything. Some number of them are only guilty of being in the wrong place at the wrong time, or having the wrong friends.

McClatchy reports civil war violence in Iraq on Tuesday.

' Baghdad

- Around 7 a.m., a roadside bomb exploded at Baladiyat neighborhood near the power supply transfers of the area injuring three people.

- Around 7.30 a.m., a car bomb exploded at Shariqa intersection in Bayaa neighborhood ( south west Baghdad ) killing two people and injuring 7 others.

- Around 8 a.m., gunmen assassinated Dr. Musa Ja’afar , the head of the Geological survey , killing one of his companions and injuring the other at Baratha mosque intersection in Uttaifiyah ( north Baghdad).

- Around 8 a.m., a random fire took place in Mansour neighborhood at Dragh district killing two people .

- Around 1 p.m., a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol at Baladiyat intersection in Al-Muhandiseen district injuring three civilians. . .

- Police found ( 6 ) unidentified bodies in . . . Baghdad . . .

Diyala

- Around noon , gunmen attacked a family in their house at Zighania ( 10 km south of Baquba ) killing three brothers and injuring their sister . . .

Falluja

- Around 4.30 p.m. of Monday afternoon, a planted bomb inside an officer’s car of the Ameriat Al-Falluja FBS exploded killing the officer ( Jamal Falij) and injuring two policemen near a police check point inside the residential complex in the area. Abu Risha guys had an instant movement and arrested 2 suspected who were not from the complex and found near the scene.

Kirkuk

- Monday night, a roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol at Sifra village on the Kirkuk – Biji route ( west Kirkuk ) killing one soldier and injuring three others.

- Around 7.30 p.m. of Monday evening , gunmen opened fire on an Iraqi army patrol at Hussainiyah village on Kirkuk – Biji ( west Kirkuk) which made the Iraqi patrol raided the village they came from arresting four suspected people having 3 machine guns ( AK4 ) taking them to their headquarter to investigate them.

Basra

- Basra morgue had delivered four unidentified bodies from two different neighborhoods in Basra city.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Extremists Move North Security Guards arrested by Iraqi militiary

AP reports that US generals in Iraq are talking about the move to northern Iraq of the most violent Sunni religious guerrillas (the US calls them al-Qaeda and some of them style themselves that way, though it is misleading).

The article says that Army Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling said from a base outside Tikrit north of Baghdad, that 1,830 roadside bombs were placed in his region in June, compared with 900 last month.

900 roadside bombs in one region of Iraq a month doesn't strike me as something to get all giddy about.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, has recovered from cancer and is leaving his treatment, in Iran, to return to Iraq. A leader in a loose sense of the United Iraqi Alliance-- the Shiite fundamentalist coalition that is the largest group in parliament. Hakim met with the UN special envoy, Steffan de Mistura to Iraq on Monday.

Speaking of the UN, Mistura said Monday that he would work for better cooperation on Iraq among the country's neighbors. He'll have his work cut out for him, Since Cheney has been trying to set the Arabs against the Iranians, apparently unaware that this move might cause a regional proxy war that would endanger the US.

Al-Hakim's son, Ammar, is profiled by the CSM's Sam Dagher. Money grafs:

' Ammar al-Hakim is presiding over an Iraqi Shiite building boom. His austere Shaheed al-Mihrab Foundation has raised 400 mosques in Iraq since 2003. It's building the largest seminary here in the holy city of Najaf and opening a chain of schools. And it now has 95 offices throughout the country.

What's more, Mr. Hakim's foundation is winning over adherents to his party – the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) – through all-expenses-paid mass marriages along with cash payments and gifts for the newlyweds, free education and stipends at his new schools, and an array of other charitable projects such as caring for orphans and displaced families.

All of this is being done to promote ISCI's core vision: a federation of nine provinces where conservative Shiite Islam would reign.

While opponents say that such a federation among central and southern provinces would only hasten the breakup of Iraq and create a ministate where Iran would hold great sway, Hakim and his party are making great gains.

For them, the plan would bolster security for Shiites and benefit the stability of the country as a whole. And, most significant, they are winning much support ahead of a national referendum on the issue by April 2008, as prescribed by the Constitution.'

In some provinces, such as Diwaniya, ISCI's paramilitary, the Badr Corps, forms the backbone of the police. The Diwaniya police have been fighting a fierce battle against the Mahdi Army (JAM) of cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

An official of the Kurdistan Regional Authority in northern Iraq warned that if the Turkish military raids into the region to crack down on the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), the move would destablize northern Iraq.

Reuters reports on civil war violence in Iraq. Major incidents:

'MOSUL - One policeman was killed and two wounded in a drive-by shooting at a police checkpoint in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

BAIJI - A parked car bomb wounded five people, including two children, when it exploded near the house of a policeman in the oil refinery city of Baiji, 180 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR BAQUBA - Gunmen attacked a police station, killing three policemen in a village north of Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - An unspecified number [it is said to be 30-40] of foreign security guards [working for the Dubai-based Almco company] were arrested by Iraqi security forces after a shooting in central Baghdad's Karrada district, security spokesman Brigadier-General Qassim Moussawi said. A convoy of four four-wheel drives was passing through a square on the edge of Karrada when a woman crossing the road was shot. The guards were arrested at a nearby checkpoint [none was American] . . .

BAGHDAD - Three bodies were found in different areas of Baghdad on Monday, police said.

BAGHDAD - A car bomb wounded five people in the Bayaa district of southwestern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded two people on Palestine Street in northeastern Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - One person was killed and seven were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded near a small bus in Baladiyat district in eastern Baghdad, police said.

SUWAYRA - Police retrieved the bodies of two men bearing signs of torture from the Tigris river on Sunday in the town of Suwayra, south of Baghdad, police said. . .

BASRA - Six members of the same family were killed when a Katyusha rocket hit their house in the oil hub of Basra, 550 km (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said. Three of the dead were children. '

See John Brown at Tomdispatch.com on how unsuited the Bush administration is to running a foreign empire.

It is a good thing that the State Department will not after all dragoon diplomats into going to Iraq. CG argues that health benefits for diplomats wounded while on duty are inadequate and arbitrarily applied.

Israel is pledging to freeze its settlements on the largely Palestinian West Bank.

At the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, Bonaparte's Arabic proclamation to the Egyptians and more accounts of the defeat of the French fleet.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sunni Groups at Odds with Each Other

The USG Open Source Center reports on wrangling between two Sunni groups, the more urban and small-town Sunni fundamentalists of the Iraqi Accord Front [al-Tawafuq] and the more rural, tribal Anbar Salvation Counci [ASC]. The two groups, both of whom oppose the very violent extremists among the Salafi Jihadis [whom the US insists on calling 'al-Qaeda'), are now being pitted against one another by the Shiites at both the federal and provincial levels.


'OSC Report: Iraq -- Tawafuq, Tribes at Odds Over Cabinet Seats, Local Power
Iraq -- OSC Report
Tuesday, November 20, 2007 . . .

Iraq -- Tawafuq [Iraqi Accord Front], Al-Anbar Shaykhs' Battle Over Cabinet Seats Reflects Local Rivalry Recent verbal sparring over cabinet seats between officials from the [Sunni religious] Tawafuq Front -- the largest Sunni bloc in the government -- and members of the Anbar Salvation Council (ASC), a group of Anbar tribesmen that has been fighting Al-Qa'ida, has brought the ongoing political friction between the two groups in Al-Anbar governorate into the national arena. The ASC's presentation to Prime Minister Al-Maliki of a list of names of potential candidates to fill the vacancies left by Tawafuq's early August withdrawal from the cabinet coincides with escalating calls by the ASC to dissolve the local Anbar governing council, which is dominated by the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) -- one of Tawafuq's three constituent parties. In response to the ASC's political maneuvering, Tawafuq officials have attempted to discredit the ASC, distinguishing it from "true" shaykhs such as Ahmad Abu Rishah -- head of the Anbar Awakening Conference (AAC) -- while touting their bloc's "legitimacy" throughout Iraq and its support in Al-Anbar governorate.

Taking their demands for change within Al-Anbar to the national level, the ASC [Anbar Salvation Council] delegation on 10 November gave Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki a list of candidates to fill the cabinet seats vacated by Tawafuq's withdrawal (Al-Hayah, 12 November). (1) The delegation -- led by Hamid al-Hayis, head of the ASC, and Ali al-Hatim Sulayman, head of the Al-Dulaym tribes -- defended what Sulayman cast as the ASC's right to the vacant seats, given that "the Anbar shaykhs are the ones who resisted the Takfiris and Al-Qa'ida" (Sawt al-Iraq, 14 November).

Sulayman said that "whoever pays the price with his blood must take something in return" (Sawt al-Iraq, 14 November). Sulayman also claimed that, despite calls for assistance, Tawafuq did not help in the tribes' fight against Al-Qa'ida (Al-Hayah, 15 November).

Asserting that the ASC was already "part of the government," Al-Hayis said that "we are not taking the place of anyone. We are deserving, and the government must answer our demands" (Al-Sabah, 12 November). Tawafuq, Tribal Leaders Spar in Al-Anbar

The ASC's meeting with Al-Maliki coincided with its escalating calls to change the IIP-dominated local government in Al-Anbar on the grounds that it is "sectarian" and "corrupt."

Sulayman charged the Anbar governing council with embezzlement, saying "not one dinar" of the reconstruction funds had benefited the people (Al-Hayah, 15 November).

Shaykh Muhammad Awda al-Mutlaq, a tribal leader who has attended some ASC meetings, said that if the government does not appoint "those who fought Al-Qa'ida" to lead Al-Anbar, "we will drop the fight against Al-Qa'ida and stay at home" (Al-Mu'tamar, 13 November).

In contrast, Abu Rishah's Anbar Awakening Conference -- which together with the ASC holds nine of the 49 seats on the local council -- has not been observed to comment on the ASC's demands, despite a claim by Al-Hayis that Ahmad Abu Rishah had withdrawn his people from the local council in a boycott of Tawafuq and the IIP (burathanews.net, 15 November). Tawafuq Officials Seek to Discredit ASC

In an apparent effort to counter the ASC's political maneuvers, Tawafuq's official spokesman and leaders of its constituent parties have attempted to discredit the ASC, charging that the ASC delegation that visited Al-Maliki does not represent the "genuine" tribes in Al-Anbar.

Official spokesman Salim al-Juburi drew a distinction between those who met with Al-Maliki and "the true shaykhs," such as the AAC's Ahmad Abu Rishah and shaykhs of the Al-Bu Fahd, Al-Bu Mahal, Al-Bu Alwan, and Al-Bu Isa tribes (

http://www.iraqiparty.com/ www.iraqiparty.com, 11 November). He dismissed the delegation as being from the "Salvation Council which (the late) Abd-al-Sattar Abu Rishah dissolved" (Al-Hayah, 12 November).

Asked whether ASC members would occupy Tawafuq's seats, Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi -- who heads the Iraqi Islamic Party -- stated that "the others" would only "represent themselves," whereas Tawafuq was "elected by no less than two million" and "represents the conscience of those who elected it" (Al-Jazirah, 11 November).

In an interview with Radio Sawa, Khalaf al-Ulayyan, who heads the National Dialogue Council, rejected the ASC's meeting with Al-Maliki, saying that the group lacked "widespread representation in the Iraqi public" ( www. irakna. com, 15 November).

At the same time that Tawafuq and the ASC have been exchanging barbs, Tawafuq has also been highlighting its close ties with Al-Anbar and Abu Rishah's Awakening Conference.

Abd-al-Karim al-Samarra'i, Tawafuq MP and a leader in the IIP, praised the "great, strong ties between Tawafuq Front personalities and the Al-Anbar governorate" ( www. altawafoq. com, 15 November).

After Al-Hashimi attended a Fallujah tribes conference, the IIP TV channel reported that "Anbar tribes and figures confirmed their stand on the national demands and the project of the Iraqi Tawafuq Front, calling on active political forces to support it" (Baghdad Satellite Channel, 12 November).

Abd-al-Salam al-Ani, chairman of Al-Anbar governing council, claimed there was tribal support for the Al-Anbar council, saying that Abu Rishah's AAC is "with us" (Radio Sawa, 14 November).

(1) The ASC had reportedly given Al-Maliki a list of names shortly after Tawafuq's August withdrawal, which led Abd-al-Sattar Abu Rishah, the late head of the AAC, to declare the ASC "dissolved" (Al-Sharqiyah, 14 August). '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqi Gov't Inaction Poses Grave Risks: US Officers 17 Killed in Sunday Bombing Wave

According to the Washington Post's Tom Ricks, US officers in Iraq are saying that the failure of the government of PM Nuri al-Maliki to capitalize on the reduction of violence in Baghdad to work for political reconciliation forms a grave danger to the future of Iraq.

Al-Maliki, a fundamentalist Shiite, has lost the Sunni Arab members of his former 'national unity' government, and does not seem to have made any really serious effort to woo them back. Nor has al-Maliki succeeded in reaching out to Sunni Arabs who support or used to support the guerrilla movement, to bring them into the political process.

US officers also complain that the ministers in the government are not providing essential services to the people.

Last I knew, al-Maliki's government had $10 bn. in reserves that they are declining actually to spend. If not now, when?

US intel officers are also apparently saying that it is important to hold provincial elections. I absolutely agree and have felt this way for some time. The Sunni provincial leadership is unrepresentative, and this causes a lot of problems.

Beyond that step, though, al-Maliki really has to reach out to the Sunni Arabs. But he is not doing it, and he may be just unable, by virtue of his long years as a guerrilla, to do so.

Bombs killed 17 persons in Iraq on Sunday, including 3 US troops. The three US soldiers were killed Sunday in Baquba in a suicide bombing attack.

Reuters reports political violence for Sunday. Major incidents:

' BAGHDAD - At least nine people were killed and 20 wounded by a car bomb targeting Finance Ministry adviser Salman al-Mugotar in al-Hurriya Square in central Baghdad's Karrada district, police said. Mugotar was not hurt.

BAQUBA - A roadside bomb targeting a U.S. foot patrol in Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, killed at least three children, two of them siblings, and wounded seven people, police said.

SAMAWA - The provincial governor of Muthanna province accused U.S. troops of opening fire on civilian cars south of Baghdad, wounding six people, and threatened to suspend ties with U.S. officials over the attack. A U.S. military spokesman said no information was immediately available on the incident.

BAGHDAD - The Iraqi army killed four gunmen and arrested 63 others during the last 24 hours, in different parts in Iraq, the Defence Ministry said.

MOSUL - A parked car bomb killed three people, including a woman, and wounded 16 others, including four policemen, when it targeted a police patrol in central Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

TIKRIT - A roadside bomb killed an Iraqi army officer and a soldier and wounded another while they were trying to defuse it in central Tikrit, 175 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

DIWANIYA - Iraqi security forces captured 47 militants, including three Mehdi Army leaders, and confiscated weapons in Diwaniya 180 km (112 miles) south of Baghdad, a police official said.'

McClatchy has more.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Satellite Channels, Blogs, Criticize Musharraf

The USG Open Source Center surveys electronic media in and about Pakistan, reporting on the situation with regard to closure or blocking of television channels, as well as making remarks toward the end on Pakistani blog sites. In other news, on Sunday Gen Pervez Musharraf rejected US calls for him to end the state of emergency before holding elections.


Pakistan Media Behavior 18 Nov; Blogger Says Musharraf 'Should Be Hanged' . . .
Pakistan -- OSC Summary
Sunday, November 18, 2007

Electronic Media

As of 1800 GMT on 18 November, Pakistan's state-run Islamabad PTV News in English and Urdu carries normal programming along with news and current affair shows, with analysts and officials analyzing the situation following the declaration of the state of emergency by President Gen Pervez Musharraf on 3 November. The channel offers circumspect coverage to clashes between the security forces and militants in Swat and between the security forces and rival groups in Parachinar. In addition, the channel continuously shows ads by Punjab Government highlighting the achievements of the provincial government, with a message by Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervez Ilahi. The provincial Punjab Assembly stands dissolved and Chaudhry Pervez Ilahi is no more the incumbent chief minister as of this time. The channel's website ( www. ptvworldnews. com. pk) provides updated news in both English and Urdu.

Two major Urdu-language news channels Karachi Geo News TV and Karachi ARY One World have been shut down and their transmission has been put off air. However, live transmission of Geo remains available via internet ( www. geo. tv).

Earlier, the government had blocked the cable transmission of these two channels, along with others, across Pakistan. Only the domestic audience with access to satellite dishes was watching these channels. The domestic audience largely uses cable to watch private TV channels and most do not have access to satellite dishes. In addition, the government has imposed a ban on the sale and purchase of satellite dishes besides the equipment used in the fabrication of satellite dishes.

Foreign news channels that are available include CNN, BBC World, Sky News and Fox News while Al-Jazeera still remains unavailable.

Domestic news channels -- Aaj TV in Urdu, Karachi Dawn News in English, CNBC Pakistan, Business Plus, Indus News, TV One, and Punjabi news and entertainment station APNA Channel -- remain available through cable transmission.

Karachi Geo News TV in Urdu -- 24-hour satellite news TV channel owned by Pakistan's Jang publishing group, broadcast from Dubai -- has been shut down and its transmission put off air. However, the channel's website www. geo. tv remains available and the channel continues to offer its live streaming video via on its website (as a link). In addition, the live streaming audio link, unavailable as of 1730 GMT on 17 November, is observed to have become available. The Geo TV blog at http: //67.59. 144.177 /blog is observed to have received 1,638 comments since 17 November.

Karachi ARY One World in Urdu -- Dubai-based 24-hour news channel -- has been ordered shut down. The channel, however, continues to air its slogans and promotional videos.

Karachi Aaj TV in Urdu -- digital satellite channel of the Business Recorder Group, which broadcasts directly to the AsiaSat satellite with a footprint of over 60 countries -- continues to cover the current developments, focusing on journalists protests against the closure of private TV channels, along with showing normal programming. Aaj TV
website ( www. aaj. tv) remains available, offering news updates as text. Live streaming video and audio links on the channel's website are observed to have become dysfunctional. (omitting "and live streaming audio of its broadcasts" in the first line of the paragraph)

Link of the website's blog in English ( http://aaj. tv/ blog) remains available, with one comment reading: "Musharraf should be hanged in public. (omitting double quotation marks here) Army role in politics must be finished forever."

Karachi Dawn News in English -- Pakistan's first 24-hour English language TV channel owned by the Dawn Group of Newspapers -- continues to provide coverage of post-emergency situation, protests of journalists, lawyers and political parties and situation in Swat besides showing an editorial ad that criticizes the government in a soft tone for shutting down private TV channels. Like PTV News (rendering source name in italics), Dawn News continuously shows ads by Punjab Government highlighting the achievements of the now dissolved provincial government.

The channel is observed to have launched its own website -- http://www. dawnnews. tv -- offering updated news, linked on the website of Karachi Dawn ( www. dawn. com), the most widely read English-language daily. The live streaming video link (mms://dawn.tvpakistan.com/dawnnews ) and the live (streaming audio link ) can now be accessed through the channel's own website -- http://www. dawnnews. tv.

Internet Websites of major English-language Pakistani newspapers -- including the influential Islamabad The News ( www.thenews. com. pk ), the most widely read Karachi Dawn ( www.dawn.com) . . .
are accessible and updating regularly.

Urdu Blogs

Postings on www. urduweb. org/ planet -- the assembly of Urdu bloggers -- continue to show harsh criticism of President Musharraf for imposing emergency and closing private TV channels.

Iftikhar Ajmal at http:// iftikharajmal. urdutech. com continues to post pictures of protesters being manhandled by the police during antigovernment protests.

English Blogs

The most reputed Pakistani blog by Adam Najam ( www. pakistaniat. com) continues to receive hundreds of comments and thousands of "views" on its postings relating to the closure of private TV channels, the arrest of political leader Imran Khan, and the imposition of emergency.

Another reputed blog ( www. politicalpakistan. blogspot .com) lists as the new heroes of Pakistan Talat Husain, Mushtaq Minhas, and Nusrat Javed of Aaj TV, whose programs are observed to have been put off air since Aaj TV resumed its transmission.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Increasingly Alone in Iraq Dozens Killed or Found Dead on Saturday

Top British Gen. Sir Richard Dannatt says that British troops are overstretched by their missions in Iraq and Afghanistan and are suffering from "Iraq fatigue." He warned that the covenant of trust between the enlisted men and the officers was in danger of being broken. Dannatt insisted that troops need recuperation time between missions but admitted that it will be hard to arrange.

The British have moved outside of Basra and have drawn down their troops substantially, so that they will be down to only 2500 by next March.

Although certain kinds of violence have declined in Basra since the British withdrew to the airport (e.g. mortar fire at British positions downtown or roadside bombs), other violence has spiked, and there has been a wave of assassinations since mid-summer, as well as turf wars between militias.

The new government in Poland is now saying that it will have its troops out of Iraq by the end of 2008. Poland has 900 troops in Iraq, in the Shiite province of Diwaniya southeast of Baghdad. Diwaniya has seen signficant fighting between the Shiite Badr Corps, the paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr. (Many Badr Corps elements are in the provincial police force).

Meanwhile, in Australia, Professor Hugh White, the head of Canberra's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, says that the US cannot win the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He points out that the US is just not likely to put the sort of resources into either country that would be needed to make a difference, and that the public's patience for long-term social engineering has run out already.

35 decomposed bodies were found in Baghdad on Saturday, remains of Iraqis killed in sectarian violence 7 months ago.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

' Nov 18 (Reuters) - Following are security developments in Iraq at 0600 GMT on Sunday.

BAGHDAD - Four bodies were found in different districts of Baghdad on Saturday, police said.

MOSUL - Five bodies, including that of a police captain, were found dumped in different areas of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, on Saturday, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded two people in Ameen district of southeastern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb hit a police commandos patrol near al-Tayaran Square in central Baghdad on Saturday, wounding two policemen, police said.

BAGHDAD - U.S. helicopters killed two men planting a roadside bomb south of Baghdad on Friday, the U.S. military said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded two people in Kesra neighbourhood in northern Baghdad, police said.

RUSTUMIYA - Several rockets or mortar rounds landed in Rustumiya neighbourhood in southeastern Baghdad but caused no casualties, police said. '

McClatchy adds more:

' Kirkuk

- Friday night, a roadside bomb targeted an oil well ( No.64 ) on the way of Kirkuk –Dibis which lies about 3 km behind ( Hineijara ) oil site ( south of Kirkuk ). No casualties or damage recorded.

- Friday night, a roadside bomb targeted the Khanaqeen brigade commander’s convoy ( general brigadier ) Hama Khan Haji Dara when it was over the third bridge in Kirkuk city . No casualties recorded,but one vehicle damaged.

- Friday night, a police patrol found a roadside bomb at Qasab Khana near the law college downtown Kirkuk defusing it .Meanwhile , another roadside exploded at the front gate of the college . No casualties recorded on both incidents.

Diyala

- Today , gunmen attacked members of the 1920th revolution battalion at Abdul Hameed village in Diyala ( 5 km north of Baquba )injuring two men from the battalion.

Mosul

- Saturday afternoon, gunmen executed five civilians in front of the public in Mosul Al-Jadeda (New Mosul ) west of the city . . . ' (This is in addition to the bodies found in the street).

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Satellite T.V. on Iraqi Security Developments

The USG Open Source Center reports on how Arabic television is reporting on political and security developments in Iraq.

'Al-Sharqiyah, Al-Iraqiyah Report on Political, Security Developments in Iraq
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, November 17, 2007

Dubai Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic, independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic-language daily Al-Zaman, carries between 1500 GMT and 2030 GMT on 17 November the following reports on latest political and security developments in Iraq:

. . . "Iraqi security sources today said that 30 bodies of treacherously-killed people were found in the Al-Dawrah neighborhood in southwestern Baghdad. In press statements, the sources said that an awakening force from Al-Dawrah found the bodies inside incompletely-built houses while it was wandering around Hur Rajab Farms on the edges of Al-Dawrah. The sources added that it is believed that the bodies belong to travelers who were kidnapped by Al-Qa'ida Organization on the main road connecting Baghdad with the southern governorates more than six months ago."

-- "During a large-scale security operation in Al-Diwaniyah in central Al-Qadisiyah Governorate in southern Iraq, an Iraqi Interior Ministry's police force seized a number of weapons, devices, and documents in an office belonging to Badr Corps, which is affiliated with the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC). An informed security source in the force said that 134 pieces of weaponry, including mortar shells, communication devices, and a machine for printing government identification cards, were found at the headquarters of Badr Corps in Al-Diwaniyah. The source added that the force arrested four guards of Husayn al-Shahramani, IISC repressive in Al-Diwaniyah Governorate Council, and seized their personal weapons. The IISC did not issue any response on this operation."

-- "Al-Mahdi Army, which is affiliated with Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, organized a military parade in Basra Governorate in southern Iraq to mark the ninth anniversary of the martyrdom of Muhammad Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr. Ali al-Sa'idi, spokesman for Martyr Al-Sadr Office in Basra, said that some people are trying to level accusations to Al-Mahdi Army, which he said is committed to preventing sedition. He added: "Others should not raid its headquarters or work toward eliminating it politically or ideologically."

-- "The Iraqi Government today called on the Turkish Government to give it some time to take measures that would lead to limiting the activities of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. The call came a day after the Iraqi president said that a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq is almost inevitable. Iraqi Government Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told journalists in Baghdad that Turkey should give the combined steps some tim e to curb the PKK's actions, adding that the implementation of these steps started only two weeks ago." . . .

-- "Al-Sadr Office is Al-Diwaniyah in southern Iraq announced that security forces arrested today three women, including the mother of a commander in Al-Mahdi Army. Meanwhile, Abu-Zaynab al-Qar'awi said in a telephone call to a news agency said that a leader of Al-Sadr trend died today of wounds he sustained last month during his arrest by police forces in Ifij District, south of Al-Diwaniyah.

Al-Qar'awi said that Abbas Al-Ghurabi died of wounds he sustained during his arrest by Al-Diwaniyah Emergency Police forces last month in Ifij."

-- "The Iraqi Council of Representatives announced the adjournment of its session until Monday and the postponement of discussions over the verdict against those convicted in Al-Anfal case [1988 poison gas campaign against Kurds] until a later date. This issue was put on the agenda of the Council of Representatives after debate between the head of the government and the presidency of the republic reached its climax. Meanwhile, the issue witnessed a new development yesterday when the government of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region declined from participating in the debate taking place over the execution of the convicted defendants. President Jalal Talabani said a few days ago in Cairo that religious authority Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali al-Sistani advised not to execute [former Iraqi defense minister under Saddam] Sultan Hashim."

Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic, government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network, carries within its 1700 GMT newscast the following reports:

-- "Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said that the awareness of the sons of the Iraqi people and their support for and cooperation with the security services thwarted all attempts by terrorists to cause sectarian war among the sons of the country. In a speech delivered during a celebration of Baghdad Day, Al-Maliki asserted that the coming stage will be a stage of reconstruction and building all over Iraq, especially after the operations carried out by the men of the Iraqi Police and Army to uproot the phenomenon of terrorism in Iraq."

Al-Maliki says: "Baghdad got rid of two nightmares: The nightmare of dictatorship, which ruined the country, took it into unjust wars, and attacked neighboring countries, in addition to the violations against the sons of the homeland, the acts of discrimination and division, and sowing the seeds of sedition and sectarianism. Second, there is the victory over the nightmare of sectarian war and sedition, which many people sought to foment to tear the country apart. We were sliding toward sectarian wars, which were promoted by ignorant men, hirelings, and mercenaries. However, it should be written with gold letters that the sons of the Iraqi people overcame these sectarian fears and became united once again."

He adds: "Last year, the national unity government allocated 400 million dollars for Baghdad Municipality. This year, however, we allocated one billion dollars in the new budget for it, in addition to 800 million dollars for Baghdad Governorate and the ministries involved in the reconstruction of Baghdad."

-- "National Security Adviser Dr Muwaffaq al-Rubay'i said that the noticeable improvement in the performance of the Iraqi security forces contributed to a large extent to enhancing security and stability in Baghdad and other areas. During a visit to Al-Kazimiyah in Baghdad, he said that the stability achieved is one of the most important reasons for the increase in economic and trade activities, in addition to the noticeable increase in the number of visitors of the holy shrines. " '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Farhi: IAEA Finds Iran did not Divert Material to Weapons

Some Saturday reading:

At our Global Affairs group blog, Farideh Farhi takes a closer look at the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran. This issue may be the most important one in world politics today, on which war and peace hang. Farhi shows that the IAEA is saying that Iran has satisfactorily answered questions about its past nuclear energy research, and that the international body can certify that Iran has not diverted nuclear material to weapons purposes. Farhi points out that the NYT did not report either of these important findings.

The IAEA is clearly frustrated with Iran for a) continuing to enrich uranium (the Iranians say it is for fuel and international law allows them to do this), and for not being 100% transparent about their energy research program. But it finds no evidence that Iran even has a weapons program, and finds a consistency between Iranian statements and IAEA findings.

Farhi doesn't bring this point up, but the Israeli government is trying to get the IAEA head, Mohammed Elbaradei, fired, because he is not producing the reports that the Kadima and Likud parties want him to produce. The Israeli government had also been a big proponent of the theory that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction in 2002, with Efraim Halevy, the head of Mossad [Israeli intelligence], making wild charges that he may have known were not true.

Ironically, Israel is the country that broke the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty in the Middle East and introduced nuclear weapons into the region, kicking off an arms race with Iraq that in many ways led to the Iraq War. US and American complaints about Iran's civilian energy research program never acknowledge Israel's own outlaw status with regard to nonproliferation.

[Some kind readers have written in anonymously to maintain that Israel cannot violate a treaty that it never signed. This allegation betrays a misunderstanding of how international law works. There is a sufficient basis in the sources for international law for proliferation to be considered illegal. The UNSC encourages member states to incorporate the NPT Treaty into their own national law by formally adopting the treaty. States may neglect to do so but that does not blunt the force of international law. Note that only three other states in the whole world join Israel in declining to sign the NPT. Sudan can violate the UN Convention on Genocide, which it has not signed, and Burma can violate the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which it has not signed. Not only has Israel ignored UNSC resolutions against proliferation itself, but it helped the odious South African Apartheid State with its nuclear weapons program in the 1970s. That's an outlaw status.]

See also Jonathan Schell at Tomdispatch.com on Pakistani nuclear weapons and the Bush administration.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, lots of new letters posted this week from French officers and politicians in Egypt, mostly concerning their perilous situation after the British fleet destroyed much of the French fleet off Alexandria at the beginning of August, 1798. The despair is palpable: "Eleven sail of the line taken, burnt, and lost for France, our best officers killed or wounded, the coasts of our new colony laid open to invasion of the enemy; such are the dreadful results of an engagement which took place on the night of the 1st instant, between our fleet and that of the English under the command of Admiral Nelson."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turks Favor Invasion

A new poll shows that 81% of Turks favor invading northern Iraq, up from 46% in July.

' The number of people saying Turkey should conduct a cross-border military operation against militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) stood at 81 percent, up sharply from 46 percent in the last poll in July.'

.

The Reuters article continues,

' Despite U.S. offers of help for NATO ally Turkey in fighting the PKK, the poll showed the number of Turks with a negative view of the United States had risen to 86 percent from 49 percent in November 2003 after the U.S. invasion of Iraq. '

Reuters adds:

' he survey showed support for Turkey's European Union membership bid had fallen to 51 percent from 52 percent in July, with 40 percent now opposed to joining. A few years ago, support for EU membership was above 70 percent.

Turks with higher education were most opposed to joining the bloc. '

In other news, the Sadrists oppose allowing Baath officials back into the government from their exile.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Cole on Academic Freedom

The Monreal Mirror carries an interview with me by Samer Elatrash, in honor of the holding of the Middle East Studies Association (MESA) Conference in Montreal. MESA has over 2700 members among teachers and researchers at colleges and universities, mainly in North America.

Elatrash writes:

' . . . The biggest problem facing Middle East academics, however, is the pressure by off-campus interest groups that disagree with a professor’s stances, he says.

“Outside groups, non-specialists, intervene because they don’t like the conclusions,” he says. “The politicization of scholarship is very dangerous. Scholars are like canaries in a mine. They are on the cutting edge of research, and most sensitive to dangers in a society. If you silence them, you’re poking out the eyes of society.”
Tenure terrors

Few topics are likely to raise as much controversy as the Palestine-Israel conflict and U.S. policy in the Middle East, subjects Cole often blogs about. Cole will chair a panel on the topic this weekend during the annual MESA conference in Montreal, focusing on the case of two political scientists, John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, who authored an essay and a book on the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in the American government and its decision to invade Iraq—a taboo of scholarship, judging by the denunciation of Walt and Mearsheimer by pro-Israel groups in the U.S.

Walt and Mearsheimer, both respected scholars in the Realist school of political science, were asked to write an essay about the topic for The Atlantic Monthly, which wound up spiking the article (the essay was finally published overseas, in the London Review of Books). “I don’t think the Mearsheimer and Walt case changed anything,” says Cole. “Everyone in academia already knew that messing with right-wing Zionists was dangerous. Anybody in the field feels pressure, and one point is to complicate tenure cases.”

Over the past few years, pro-Israel groups and advocates have protested the tenure bids of several professors they considered anti-Israel, including DePaul University political theory professor Norman Finkelstein and Barnard College anthropologist Nadia Abu El-Haj. In Finkelstein’s case, his bid was denied by the senior administration after his department voted to accept it. Cole had a similar experience when he was considered for tenure by Yale’s history department. The department voted to grant him tenure, but the administration chose to veto the recommendation, in part because of his blog, according to a university official who spoke to the Jewish Week newspaper. The Jewish Week also reported that opponents who accused Cole of anti-Israel statements began a letter writing campaign to Yale’s donors, many of them Jewish, according to the newspaper, asking them to intervene (the newspaper reported that four big donors protested hiring Cole to the administration).
Still talking

“The disturbing thing is the attempt to intervene in the specific academic process,” says Cole, adding that the pro-Israel groups are one among many interest groups that intervene in hiring decisions. “It used to be the government, now it’s private interest groups,” he says.

Although taking positions on such topics may seem to be an occupational hazard to scholars, especially non-tenured scholars, Cole says, “Academics in a democracy have a responsibility to speak up.”

More academics are using the Internet to cut through the middlemen of conventional media. “There is an enormous thirst for expertise and for a less surface reading of things,” he says. “The U.S. is in a quagmire in large part because decisions were made by people who were uninformed about the Middle East. If people want more quagmires, they can be sanguine about the silencing of [academics].” '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

The Democratic Debate seen from San Francisco, Boston and Des Moines

Everyone reads the NYT and WaPo, so I thought it might be interesting to see how some other newspapers covered the Democratic debate. The San Francisco Chronicle's Carla Marinucci awards the Las Vegas debate to Hillary Clinton. Clinton had to come back from her poor performance in Philadelphia. So in that sense she won if she performed reasonably well, which she did. Marinucci felt that Obama stumbled on the issue of giving driver's licenses to undocumented aliens. (He equivocated before finally saying that he was for it.)

(Cole: You have to sympathize with the Democratic candidates. Letting the undocumented get drivers licenses might encourage them to learn how to drive properly so as to pass the test,and reduce a potential hazard on the highways. And, the measure is probably popular with Latino voters, whom the Democrats are trying fairly successfully to woo (1/3 of Latinos had voted Republican in some earlier elections, but they are trending Democrat now; thus, Gov. Bill Richardson's support for giving them drivers licenses.) But the Lou Dobbses of the world have gone ballistic on this issue. Apparently the American public prefers that its nannies, gardeners, store clerks and other workers, which it freely hires in full knowledge that this cheap labor is here illegally, take the bus to the homes of their white employers instead of putting on airs and driving cars. Problem: Most of the US does not have good public transportation, and it is not safe to have the undocumented sneak around driving illicitly. If the US Right is so exercised about this issue, they should stop hiring undocumented laborers; the Right is the ones with the money anyway. Most Democrats don't own big companies like Walmart, a major employer of undocumented workers, don't own big strawberry-farming haciendas in California, and don't have big mansions peopled with nannies and gardeners.)

David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register agreed that Obama fumbled the drivers license issue, but also slammed him for not having a clear answer on the storage of nuclear waste.

In contrast, he praises Richardson and Dodd for turning in truly thoughtful, presidential performances. (He doesn't mention Biden for some odd reason).

But Yepsen reserves his severest judgment for John Edwards, who, he says, "should have stayed home," and who got booed for labeling Clinton a "corporate Democrat." He writes:

' Edwards also had a poor night because for the first time, the differences between his votes as a U.S. senator and his talk now came into clear focus. He voted for the Iraq war, the Patriot Act and using Yucca Mountain as a nuclear-waste disposal site. Those votes are at odds with the populist rhetoric he serves up today, and it will undermine the credibility of his message."

Yepsen games out the upcoming Iowa contest among the Democrats, and, interestingly enough, concludes that it may be bad for Clinton if Edwards plummets in the polls:

' Ironically, Edwards' poor performance may be bad news for Clinton in Iowa.

That's because Clinton, Edwards and Obama are in a statistical tie for first among caucus-going Democrats here. If either Obama or Edwards should fade in Iowa, his supporters may move to the other candidate, making that man the leading anti-Clinton candidate.

And that could give him enough votes to eke out a plurality win over her on caucus night.'

Of course, there is another possibility that Yepsen does not mention, which is that former Edwards supporters switch to Clinton rather than to Obama. On grounds of how the candidates talk about class issues, of course, Yepsen is probably right that it would be more likely for working class and lower middle class Edwards supporters in Iowa to move to supporting Obama if Edwards falters.

Susan Milligan of the Boston Globe concurs that Sen. Clinton recovered in Las Vegas. She focuses on the issue of taxes. Sen. Obama complains that Social Security taxes are paid only on the first $97,000 or so of earnings, so that persons who earn more than that actually pay less percentage-wise than those who are poorer than they. Clinton maintained that if the cap is simply removed, it would be a trillion dollar tax increase and would harm "the middle class." Obviously, it would actually be a tax increase for the upper middle class and for the rich. Clinton seemed to be championing their class interests, and Obama pointed out that only 6% of earners in the US make more than $100,000 a year, so they are hardly "middle class."

On Pakistan, Milligan portrays Obama as a harsh critic of Gen. Pervez Musharraf and of the policy of backing a military dictator rather than promoting democracy. She writes:

' Obama insisted the choice between human rights abroad and security at home was a false one. ``The concepts are not contradictory...they are complementary,'' Obama said. If the United States allows repression in Pakistan to continue, anti-American sentiment there will grow.'

Clinton when pressed said she would not back national security over human rights, but she seemed less willing to condemn Musharraf roundly.

On this issue, Manan Ahmed makes a powerful argument at our Global Affairs joint blog that for the US to back Pakistani dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf at this juncture is self-defeating, and that the Pakistani public dislikes Muslim terrorism and would elect a government that would fight it. (I would add that a representative government would likely be much less tolerant of the neo-Taliban in the north than is the Pakistani military, which has long used such elements for its own purposes.)

This issue did not come up in the debate (naturally, because it can't be publicly and honestly debated in the US without risking a lot of character assassination), but since I'm mentioning the Global Affairs blog, I should note: Gershon Shafir gives us a long and canny analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an issue in conflicted decolonization, and a contemporary waging of four major conflicts. (It is reprinted from "Conflicts."). If you want to know why the Annapolis conference is rather unlikely to produce breakthroughs, here is a place to start.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

OSC: Russia Seeks Political, Economic Dividends from Syria Ties

The USG Open Source Center analyzes Russia's renewed ties of patronage with Syria. The analysts look at arms sales, energy deals and port access for the Russian navy, among other dimensions of the relationship, and also trace the ways in which Russia has attempted to defend Syria in international forums.


'OSC Analysis 15 Nov: Russia Seeks Political, Economic Dividends from Syria Ties
Thursday, November 15, 2007

Russia-Syria: Russia Seeking Political, Economic 'Dividends' from Syria Ties.

Trying to recover some of its former geopolitical influence in the Middle East, in recent years Russia has been repeatedly defending Syria and attempting to expand its role in the Middle East peace process. In its relations with Damascus, Moscow has focused on the development of economic cooperation but may also be trying to enhance its military presence in the Mediterranean using its longtime naval supply base in Syria. . .

Despite the United States' inclusion of Syria on its list of State Sponsors of Terrorism . . . Moscow has consistently championed Damascus in the face of international censure and attack. Senior Russian officials have repeatedly emphasized the importance of stability in the Middle East, arguing that their cooperation with Damascus promotes security in the region and avoids isolating the Syrian regime.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov opposed the imposition of sanctions on Syria over the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri as "illogical" and "unprofessional" (Interfax, 27 October 2005), and in 2007 Russia abstained from a UN Security Council vote on a resolution to set up a tribunal to try Al-Hariri's killers.(1) Russia's permanent UN representative Vitaliy Churkin highlighted "significant legal flaws" in the text of the resolution (ITAR-TASS, 30 May).

Russia's Foreign Ministry condemned an Israeli air raid on Syria as "unacceptable under all international law" and stressed Moscow's "extreme anxiety" (www.mid.ru, 6 September). Commentator Vitaliy Portnikov described Russia's reaction to this incursion as "unprecedented" (Politkom.ru, 21 September).

At the United Nations, Lavrov opposed Syria's possible "exclusion and isolation" from a proposed Middle East peace conference, arguing that "we will achieve more" by pursuing a "policy of involvement" (ITAR-TASS, 24 September). He had previously argued that the region's problems should be resolved by involving all countries concerned and not by isolating any of them (Russia Profile, 27 December 2006).

During a working visit to Syria, Russian General Staff chief Yuriy Baluyevskiy emphasized that the two countries' "active" military-technical cooperation "only strengthens stability in the region" (RIA Novosti, 31 January 2006). Federation Council International Affairs Committee Chairman Mikhail Margelov hailed Moscow's policy on the Middle East as the "most consistent and productive" and described Syria as the "most important" of the "main political forces in the region" who need to be involved in "stabilization" (Newsru.com, 20 December 2006). Russia Seeks Influence Via Syria Ties

Russian commentators and senior officials have highlighted the merits of reviving the close Soviet-era relationship with Syria. They have argued that friendship with Damascus will help Moscow restore Russia's "superpower status" in international politics.

The then defense minister, Sergey Ivanov, stressed that the Middle East is "crucially important" for Russian "geopolitical and economic interests" and cooperation with Syria brings "tangible economic and political dividends" (Izvestiya, 9 November 2006).
Popular news website Dni.ru hypothesized that, by acting as Syria's "sponsor" in the international arena and becoming President Bashar al-Asad's "sole indispensable friend," Moscow hoped to assume the role of "principal patron" of Syrian-Israeli dialogue. It opined that influence over Syria would facilitate Russia's returning to the Middle East as a "real player, rather than a supernumerary." Moreover, it argued that Moscow had adeptly presented its rapprochement with Syria not as a bid to bolster its own position but as a desire to resolve global problems (24 January 2005).

Portnikov argued, in the light of an information leak regarding a potential sale of Russian missiles to Syria, that Moscow's motivation for this move would be "to demonstrate that there is life in the old dog yet, that Russia, relying on old allies, is capable of influencing world political processes" (Politkom.ru, 24 January 2005).

Moscow officials and observers suggest Russia is seeking to use its ties with Syria to boost Russia's position in the Middle East peace process.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Sultanov asserted during a visit to Syria that Russia is concerned with ending the "difficult" situation in the region and restoring stability to pave the way for a "comprehensive peace" (SANA, 13 September).
Popular Internet news site Newsru.com suggested that, given its long-standing ties in the Middle East, Russia could provide the "effective levers" for influencing Syria that the Israeli leadership needs in its quest for a settlement. Newsru.com concluded that "some kind of diplomatic success in the region would not hurt Moscow" (20 December 2006).

Internet site Polit.ru, which features news updates and commentaries, declared that the threat of civil war in Lebanon involving outside forces such as Syria and Israel had resulted in a situation where Moscow wanted to make its presence felt as a "real force" capable of unblocking the crisis. It argued that Syria, an Arab League member, could also give Russia "considerable backing" in its bid to boost its status in the region (5 April 2007). Moscow Expands Economic Ties

Both Syrian and Russian commentators have argued Russia has been expanding economic ties. Tishrin, a Syrian Government-owned paper, said that Moscow's decision to write off the bulk of Syria's $13.4-billion Soviet-era debt after Al-Asad's visit to Moscow in January 2005 "served the interests of the two countries and opens the door wide" for the development of ties in other fields. An editorial in government-owned Al-Thawrah pointed out that the debt problem was "one of the obstacles" to Syrian-Russian relations in the previous decade. Moreover, Moscow allowed Damascus to repay the remainder of the loan on extremely favorable terms (27 January).

Russian weekly Internet paper Rossiyskiye Vesti, which is connected to the Presidential Staff and other government bodies, highlighted the "realism and pragmatism" of Russia's Syria policy. It argued that for Russia the Middle East is "primarily an extremely promising market rather than an arena for military-political confrontation" and that is why Moscow "invariably wants to play the role of a peacemaker" in the region (20-27 December 2006).

Russian firms have invested heavily in the country since the Iraq war, after which several Russian companies lost contracts in Iraq. The Russian companies keen to work in Syria are often the same oil and gas, construction, and commercial firms that operated in Saddam Husayn's Iraq. For example, Stroytransgaz, Russia's largest oil and gas construction firm, has won a series of preferential contracts with Syrian firms.

Stroytransgaz signed a 160-million-euro contract to build a gas refinery in the north of Syria's Palmyra plateau following the fifth session of the Russian-Syrian Commission for Trade and Economic and Scientific and Technical Cooperation in late-April 2007. Vladimir Naumenko, head of the Damascus branch of Stroytransgaz, pointed out that the contract was drawn up without going to tender, which he argued indicated the Syrian Government's "eminent confidence in the Russian company." He predicted that his company would win tenders to build another two gas installations in Syria (Vzglyad, Vesti.ru, 27 April).

The Syrian Government has ratified a deal with Stroytransgaz to build a $220-million natural gas processing plant with a capacity of 1.1 billion cubic meters per year. The project was not put out to tender prior to the deal (RIA Novosti, 24 October).

Stroytransgaz also won tenders to build the pan-Arabian and Kirkuk-Banyas gas pipelines in Syria and an oil refinery involving total investment of over $2.5 billion (www.rsds.ru, May 2006).

Other Russian oil and gas firms have also invested heavily in Syria.

Volgogradneftemash, one of Russia's largest producers of equipment for the oil, gas, and chemical industries, is working on a December 2006 contract to supply the Syrian Gas Company with various items of specialist equipment for a gas refinery under construction in Hims (Promyshlennyye Novosti, 6 March).

Russia's Tatneft oil company and the Syrian State Oil Company signed a production-sharing contract in March 2005 giving them exclusive rights to geological prospecting and oil and gas extraction in the 1,900-square-kilometer Sector No. 27 of the Al-Bu-Kamal region of Dayr al-Zawr Province in eastern Syria (Vzglyad, 8 November 2005). Tatneft set up a branch of Tatneft Exploration & Production International in Syria and planned to drill an exploratory well in 2007 (www.tatneft.ru, no date given).

Russia has also agreed on cooperation with Syria in the sphere of power generation, as well as technology and fertilizers.

Russia signed contracts in April 2005 to build the Khalyabiyah-Zalyabiyah HEP station on the Euphrates, modernize the Maskanah irrigation system, and erect a series of 20 dams on the coast (Newspo.ru, Energopower.ru, 3 April 2005).

Russia's Tekhpromeksport energy construction firm, in consortium with Power Machines (Silovyye Mashiny), won a contract to increase the capacity of the Tishrin thermal power station, which the company had converted to gas in 1996. Alfa-Bank analyst Aleksandr Kornilov estimated the deal to be worth at least $200 million (RBCdaily, 12 April 2006).
Syrian Ambassador to Russia Hassan Rishah announced the two countries' plans to cooperate in the field of high technology to mark the 20th anniversary of their joint space flight. He suggested that the two countries could set up a "technopolis" for scientific research and the development of new technology. He stressed that relations between the two countries are developing "extremely dynamically" and hoped that trade turnover would top $1 billion in 2007 (www.nkau.gov.ua, 25 July).

Russia's FosAgro fertilizer manufacturer expressed readiness to invest in the development of fertilizer and concentrated fodder production in Syria during an 8 October meeting with Syrian Agricultural and Agrarian Reform Minister Adil Safar (Syria News, SANA, 10 October). Russia Seeks Renewed Naval Role in Mediterranean

In addition to expanding economic and political ties, there are signs Russia may use its longtime naval supply base in the Syrian port of Tartus to increase its naval presence in the Mediterranean.

Mikhail Nenashev, chairman of the Russian Movement in Support of the Navy, stressed that Tartus should be the "center of our presence in the region" after Navy Commander in Chief Admiral Vladimir Masorin called for Russia to revive a permanent presence in the Mediterranean (Edinros.ru, 6 August).

Moscow began work to expand the port of Latakia, which "may indicate that Russia views Syria as a bridgehead to increase its influence in the Middle East" (Kommersant, 2 June 2006). An anonymous source cited by opposition website Grani.ru confirmed that Moscow intends to form a squadron of warships over the coming three years to operate permanently in the Mediterranean and enable Russia to ensure Syria's security (2 June 2006).

Independent weekly military newspaper Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye suggested that Damascus may have agreed to the expansion of Russia's military presence in the region in return for arms shipments (1 December 2006).

Some Israeli media also suggested Moscow aims to enhance its military ties. The Jerusalem Post, a right-of-center independent Israeli daily, suggested that the Tartus base could become a "new home" for Russia's Black Sea Fleet following its redeployment from Sevastopol. It further argued that Tartus "allows projection of Russian power into the entire eastern Mediterranean and, by extension, a flexing of military might before Israel and the West" (31 August).

Tel Aviv's independent Ma'ariv paper claimed that Russian advisers have been "upgrading" monitoring equipment used by Syrian intelligence against Israel and improving Syrian Army electronic warfare capabilities (31 August).

In contrast, some Russian experts assert that Moscow's plans are unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. Former Black Sea Fleet commander, Adm. Eduard Baltin said that "Only the Soviet Navy had
the means to maintain a rapid deployment group of ships in the Mediterranean" and that Russians "only have the capability to maintain a military-political presence in the region" (Kommersant.com, 6 August). . . '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

3 US Soldiers Killed Blackwater Blues Dems Try Again to Bring Troops Home

An FBI investigation has found that the Blackwater Security guards who killed 17 Iraqis in mid-September had broken laws and regulations on the use of deadly force in 14 of the shootings.

Fred McKay argues that Blackwater combines the two constituencies of Bush's wing of the Republican Party, the privatization of Everything and Christian fundamentalism.

The State Department auditor whom Rep. Henry Waxman accuses of impeding investigations into Blackwater has now admitted that his own brother is on an advisory board to the firm, after having earlier denied it in his congressional testimony. He says he only just found out.

The House of Representatives attempted to put strings on Bush's latest supplemental for Iraq and Afghanistan, including a timetable for US military withdrawal. The bill they passed is expected to be defeated in the Senate and would in any case be vetoed by Bush. The Republican representatives are claiming things are just great now in Iraq (nearly 1000 persons a month are still being killed there even by the sketchy official statistics; as late as this September, the number of displaced persons increased by 16%; there is now active fighting on a new front, between Turkey and the Kurds holed up in northern Iraq; security is apparenlty collapsing in the port city of Basra; and Baghdad has in the past 10 months gone from 65% Shiite to 75% Shiite). Democrats warned against another 10 years of war at the cost of trillions of dollars.

Sunni Arabs are claiming that the US bombed and killed some members of a group that was actually on the side of the US. The American military maintained that its operation had only targeted "al-Qaeda."

McClatchy on violence in Iraq on Wednesday.

Reuters reports the following major incidents:

'ISKANDARIYA - At least two people were killed and six wounded when a suicide bomber wearing a vest packed with explosives infiltrated a meeting of Sunni Arab tribal sheikhs in Iskandariya, a town 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad . . .

DIYALA - Two U.S. soldiers were killed and four wounded in an explosion in Diyala province northeast of Baghdad on Tuesday, the U.S. military said.

MOSUL - A U.S. soldier was shot dead during operations near the city of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a U.S. military convoy killed two civilians and wounded three just outside the heavily fortified Green Zone in central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A car bomb targeting a police patrol killed one civilian and wounded six others, including three policemen, in northeastern Baghdad, police said. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Jama'at Demands Restoration of the Pakistani Judiciary

The USG Open Source Center translates an interview given by the leader of Pakistan's oldest and largest Muslim fundamentalist party, the Jama'at-i Islami [Islamic Society], Qazi Husain Ahmad. The Jama'at had been willing to be part of the government since 2002, and [the coalition to which it belongs] had held about a fifth of the seats in parliament; it also dominated two of Pakistan's five provinces, the Northwest Frontier Province and Baluchistan. Despite the party's puritanism and generally anti-American stances, it is not typically violent, though some individual members had developed ties to jihadi groups and even al-Qaeda. The party's main demands during the present crisis have been that Gen. Musharraf reinstate the [secular] chief justice of the Supreme Court, end the state of emergency, become a civilian if he is to be president, and hold free and fair parliamentary elections. On the other hand, the Jama'at is pressing for full implementation of Islamic canon law as the law of the land, including the principle of hisbah, which would give all Muslims standing to interfere in the private affairs of other citizens on grounds of Islamic law. It seems especially shameful that the Jama'at kidnapped opposition leader Imran Khan, the former cricketer, on the campus of Punjab University and turned him over to Musharraf's police, apparently because they dislike Imran's secularism. In this interview, Qazi Husain shows a willingness to join the Pakistan People's Party in a democratic coalition against Gen. Musharraf.

'Pakistan: MMA Chief Demands Reinstatement of Judges; Ready To Work With Bhutto
Report on interview by Afzal Shahid and Kashif Salman: "Supreme Court Not Acceptable Sans Judges Who Did Not Take Oath: Qazi; We Can Launch Joint Movement if Bhutto Agrees to Restoration of Judiciary"
Khabrain
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Lahore -- . . . Qazi Husain Ahmad, head of the MMA [Islamic Action Council coalition] and the Jamaat-e Islami [Islamic Society], expressed these views during an exclusive interview with the Khabrain on 11 November: "No solution other than reinstatement of the (deposed) chief justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhary, and other judges is acceptable to us. There is virtual martial law in the country. What is emergency plus? If all people (political leaders) agree on the one-point agenda of restoration of democracy, Maulana Fazlur Rahman will also join them. We should not participate in elections under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO). All political parties, including the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and others, who participated in the previous election under the PCO, should accept their mistake. Taking part in elections under the PCO can be the stance of the Jamiyat-e Ulema-e Islam but not of the MMA (Muttahida Majlis-e Amal). The international media and governments are supporting Bhutto. We request Bhutto to agree to the agenda of restoration of the judiciary. If she agrees to this demand, we can launch joint movement. Awareness is imperative for the survival of the country and people should come out on the streets. The new ordinance is aimed at destroying the judiciary and snatching the fundamental rights of people."

[Qazi Husain Ahmad] said: Media has a basic role. The United States and Europe want to see Bhutto as an alternative to President General Musharraf. Bhutto's stand is more pro-American than Musharraf. Two important figures of the US think tanks have said that Americans have advised her to improve her image. She was asked to do so and not to worry about them. Bhutto, however, started issuing statements such as allowing access to the Americans to Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. The media continues to support her on her return. There has been no substantial increase in support for Bhutto. If you have money, you can gather 100,000 drumbeaters around you. Some people turned up after the government allowed Bhutto (to come to Karachi).

Permission was not granted in Rawalpindi and people could not gather. This is the whole game of the media. Bhutto has been bracketed with Musharraf. People know about everyone's stand. All judges who did not take oath under the PCO, including Iftikhar Chaudhary, should be restored. All of them are respected judges. The Supreme Court (SC) is not acceptable to us without them. The chief justice cannot be removed under the emergency. Judges and the Supreme Court were insulted by suspending the constitution. These judges should be immediately reinstated enabling them to give verdict on the uniform. A time will come when someone will be tried under Article 6 (related to sedition).

Musharraf has trampled on the constitution for the second time. Those who participated in any election under the PCO should accept their mistake. If the PPP is with the opposition, it should come out of assemblies. If its MPs do not do so, this means that they have accepted the PCO.

[Qazi Husain Ahmad] further said: Restoration of judiciary is the agenda. We request Bhutto to agree to this agenda and join us. If she does so, we will launch movement together for restoration of judiciary under Iftikhar Chaudhary. We will not accept anything in which the judiciary is not restored.

The real objective of the rulers was to remove the judges from their way and no decision will be accepted until they are restored. The same (old) bench should decide whether Musharraf was eligible to contest the presidential elections. We will not accept any solution until the restoration of the judiciary at any conference or consultations held under the auspices of the MMA or the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM).

He said: The movement that has been launched will move forward and people will join it. The Jamaat-e Islami and the Awami National Party staged demonstrations and big gatherings at every place in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) but the media did not highlight it. Five people were injured in firing in Batt Khela in Swabi (during demonstration) but the media made not mention.

The behavior of the government is leading to civil war. The only solution to the prevailing situation is to create awareness among the masses so that they come out on the streets to force them (rulers). The objective behind eliminating the Supreme Court was to put an end to accountability because it was summoning officers and the civilian and military bureaucracy is not accustomed to it. That is why they got rid of the judiciary. Their thinking will not change until people come out on the streets. Even the gun-wielding people (army) will not be able to stop them.

The basic objective behind an Islamic system is to create a link between the creation and the creator. It differentiates between the permissible and the forbidden and advocates a system of accountability. The second objective is protection of life, property, and honor. These are the basic objectives for which the whole society should be prepared through education and preaching. People who create disturbance after this should be punished. The system of justice cannot be established without economic justice. Economic justice is imperative but not possible in this system of exploitation.

Some people are enjoying everything freely while the majority is being deprived of basic necessities. The greatest benefit of Islamic system is that no one can amend it. People should demand its enforcement and strive for it. Martial law is un-Islamic and is a revolt against the system of God and His Prophet. The Koran declares one as devil, who enforces his own system instead of His system and wants his orders instead of the laws to be obeyed. '

(Description of Source: Islamabad Khabrain in Urdu -- Sensationalist daily, generally opposes Pakistan People's Party. Circulation of 30,000.)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sunni Party Joins Call for New Elections in Iraq

Turkish aircraft struck at targets inside Iraqi Kurdistan on Tuesday, seeking to inflict damage on the Kurdish Worker Party guerrillas who have crossed over into Iraq in search of safe haven.

The Iraq and Afghanistan wars (mostly the Iraq War) have cost the US taxpayer $1.8 trillion, twice what Bush has alleged.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is preparing to extend for another 6 months his freeze on the activities of the paramilitary Mahdi Army. Since the Shiites have been able to increase their proportion in Baghdad from 65% to 75% even with the supposed 'freeze,' probably in part because the US disarmed the Sunnis in the capital, it is hard to see what extra advantage al-Sadr would gain from keeping the Mahdi Army deployed.

The Sadrists in parliament called on Monday for a dissolution of parliament and new elections. On Tuesday MP Baha' al-A'raji asked President Jalal Talabani to dissolve parliament and hold new elections, but not on the closed list system. (The UN and US imposed on Iraq a system similar to that used in Spain, which involves parties campaigning on the basis of a ranked list of potential members of parliament, and how many they seat depends on what proportion of the vote the list gains. In Iraq, the system has led to people voting for lists in virtual ignorance of which actual candidates are running. Al-A'raji argued for open parliamentary elections.

On Tuesday the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front joined in the call for new elections, according to al-Hayat. The pan-Arab London daily reports that they argue that parliament is dysfunctional and paralyzed by internal disputes.

The Sunni Iraqi Accord Front also rejected Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's offer of a window of time during which it might rejoin his cabinet. The MPs said that they considered al-Maliki's offer a veiled threat and would not negotiate with him under such circumstances.

A government source told al-Hayat that the US and the Iraqi military are about to launch a military operation in Qadisiya province (capital: Diwaniya), about half of which is run by armed paramilitaries, and where assassinations and firefights among rival Shiite militias are common.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that there is continued tension in Karbala, with police on police violence (each faction of the police is dominated by a different political party, the Sadrists or the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq). The police chief and his deputy have just been arrested, apparently on charges of being close to the Mahdi Army.

At the Global Affairs blog: Manan Ahmed on Pakistan, Barnett Rubin on the deterioration of security in Afghanistan, and Avi Shlaim on interference in freedom of speech by the Israel lobby, even unto Oxford.

In memoriam, Steve Gilliard.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Like, Bad Vibes, Man, in Pakistan: Musharraf; Bhutto: Musharraf must Go

The Pakistani public is generally outraged at the repressive measures implemented by Gen. Musharraf, which now include forbidding the importation of satellite dishes to Pakistan. Musharraf seems to think he is dealing with Uzbekistan or something; Pakistanis are far more sophisticated than that, and Lahore can always get Indian t.v. stations-- and the word spreads from there.

I even saw Musharraf on satellite television asking if "democracy is more important than the country." Of course, as with all dictators, Musharraf is suggesting that he himself is the country. It should be pointed out that the thousands of lawyers, judges, and political party workers had been law abiding citizens and posed no threat to "the country" when Musharraf began arbitrarily arresting them.

Bhutto's stance against Musharraf has raised the possibility of an all-parties political alliance against him, and all the major parties are pledging to boycott the elections he has called for this winter. For his part, Musharraf for all the world like a Brian Wilson in uniform, accused Benazir of producing "bad vibes" and figured out that maybe she would now be difficult to work with.

The USG Open Source Center translates an interview with opposition politician Benazir Bhutto in which she demands that Gen. Pervez Musharraf step down as president.

'Pakistan: Bhutto Demands Musharraf Should Quit as President, Army Chief
"News Alert"; words within double quotation marks in English
Geo News TV
Tuesday, November 13, 2007 . . .
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Benazir Bhutto, chairperson of (Pakistan) People's Party (PPP), has urged President Gen Pervez Musharraf to quit as president besides retiring from his military post and has said that she would not work as prime minister with Gen Pervez Musharraf as the president. To know more about it, we have contacted Pakistan People's Party Chairperson Benazir Bhutto:

(Begin recording, via telephone) (Anchor Sana Mirza) Bhutto, earlier you were demanding that Gen Pervez Musharraf should doff his uniform and now you are asking him to quit as president as well. What has prompted this change in your stance?

(Bhutto) Pakistan People's Party wanted stability in the country so that our people do not face hardships and we make a transition from dictatorship to democracy in a peaceful manner. But I feel sorry to say that General Musharraf gave up this path unilaterally and imposed martial law again, arrested judges of courts, arrested lawyers, and unleashed violence against democratic activists. So, I believe that General Musharraf is not cognizant of the crisis our country is facing. He himself is becoming a hurdle in progress toward democracy. Pakistan's survival is in democracy and anyone obstructing it should go. If democracy is not restored, Pakistan's integrity will be at risk. Therefore, to save Pakistan, we are saying that General Musharraf should resign now. He has made his decision. He has refused to adopt the democratic course. So he should resign to quit.

(Mirza) Benazir, if the president doffs his uniform and continues performing duties only as the president, will you be willing to be a part of the government?

(Bhutto) No! The treatment that has been meted out (changes thought) we showed a lot of patience. I am a "political leader." Ours is the largest party. It is a federal party. People say that People's Party is a uniting force for all the four provinces. So there is a great responsibility on us. We take each and every step after serious consideration. I am not saying this without any basis. I tried my best that we adopt a peaceful path.

Our soldiers are dying in the tribal areas. Sometimes, they are sent to Siachen. Some other times, they are sent to Baluchistan.

Our "judges" are under arrest.

In Baluchistan, our honorable leaders have been arrested.

Everywhere. Which province should I name? There are problems everywhere -- in the Northern Areas, FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas). So in this state of affairs, when General Musharraf had the opportunity and he could not manage the situation, I think he should go and an interim government of "national consensus" should be formed, which should be a caretaker government, and which should oversee fair elections; and power is transferred to the people.

I have invited all the political parties to "join" the leaders of Pakistan People's Party ? Alliance for Restoration of Democracy. I have asked everyone -- "civil society," youths, "students" -- to come forward. We are not offering a platform. We say that it could be any platform, but there should be a "coalition of interest" by those who want to save Pakistan. Hello?

(Mirza) Benazir, are there any contacts taking place between People's Party and Jamiyat-e Ulema-e Islam for a movement against the government.

(Bhutto) Yes, all political parties are in contact with me and the People's Party. Today, I had a conversation with Qazi Husain Ahmad (chief of Jamaat-e Islami) "through" Makhdum Amin Fahim. Not directly, but talks were held through him. Talks were also held with Tehmina Daultana (a leader of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Sharif Group). Mian Nawaz Sharif has also written a letter. I would have also contacted Imran Khan through my people, but he is "underground." It has, therefore, become a little difficult to contact him. However, with all "political parties," I have personally talked to Awami National Party leader (Asfandyar) Wali Khan and with Hayee Baluch; I mean, with Bizenjo. There is no such leader as with who we are not in contact. We are in contact with all. All "political leaders" want to play their role.

And I believe that there should be a "coalition of interests." We should move ahead toward democracy. People's Party is the largest party of the country and People's Party desires the formation of this broader "coalition" to take the country toward democracy.

(Mirza) Benazir, you have been placed under house arrest to stop the long march. If you are kept under house arrest like this, what do you think as to how you will run you election campaign?

(Bhutto) Look. Let me tell you one thing. In our country, they say that you could judge the success of a rally, or the success of a "movement," from two factors. Either the state does not interfere. In that case, you see how large the crowd was. What the size of the public meeting was. If the state interferes, you look at the size of the police and you look at the barricades the police erect and from their size you calculate as to how large a "crowd" could have joined you. So you get in touch with this "crowd" through the organization. If I am detained, we have our organization. If I am detained, our media is independent.

I know attempts are being made to snatch your freedom. However, we believe that the press is also an important platform. So, no one can suppress the voice of truth. In the course of history, forces of oppression tried to suppress the voice of truth. What happened in Karbala (the historical battle in Iraqi city of Karbala in which Prophet Muhammad's grandson Husayn was killed by the incumbent caliph Yazid's forces)? Yazid tried to suppress the voice of truth, tried to murder. And he slaughtered the caravan of Imam Husayn. Bibi Zaynab (Husayn's sister) was left alone, who went (to Yazid's court), but they could not silence her. The final defeat was for Yazid. So no one can suppress the truth.

(Mirza) Benazir, please state whether you have been given the hint that you are going to be shifted to Karachi.

(Bhutto) Yes, a TV station asked me that a C-130 was being prepared for me and I would be taken to your homeland. So would it be Karachi? On this, I said that I was hearing this news from them. I was confined. I could not see as to what was going on outside. Then another TV station said (to me) that they would "deport" me from the country and would exile me. On this, I said that it would be totally unconstitutional. It was my country. I did not want to leave. I would "prefer" to be detained in a prison here rather than being deported.

(Mirza) Benazir, please state that you want to launch a movement against the government. So will you launch this movement from the platform of All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) or Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD)?

(Bhutto) APDM and ARD are separate "alliances." However, as you know, even the separate "alliances" can join hands. It is because ARD (Bhutto changes thought) if you look at the APDM, there are various "alliances" within the APDM. One is the MMA (Muttahida Majlis-e Amal) "alliance," which is there. The second is PONAM (Pakistan Oppressed Nations Movement) "alliance," which is also a part of the APDM. So, different "alliances" can come together.

So, there is a possibility for the ARD and the APDM to join hands in a yet new alliance and those people who are in the ARD and the APDM, such as members of the "civil society," too, can join this "new alliance for a minimum agenda." I would call on all the "parties" that People's Party was ready. The ARD is also ready, if they like that platform. I am ready as the (chairperson of) the People's Party. I am also willing in the "individual capacity" as well to invite (everyone) and to call on everyone so that we "build up" "pressure" on a "minimum-point agenda" and pressure General Musharraf to quit both offices and establish a caretaker "national government," a "consensus" government, in the country.

(Mirza) Benazir, as the ARD was already there as a party, what prompted the formation of APDM?

(Bhutto) Let us bygones be bygones and look at the current situation, where, in our country, Pakistan flag has been brought down in the tribal areas and attempts are also under way to lower the Pakistan flag in various areas in Swat. Bomb blasts are targeting the Armed Forces of Pakistan, Pakistani people, and Pakistan's "markets." Nearly 160 people embraced martyrdom in the bomb blast that took place (on Benazir's welcome rally) in Karsaz (area). Whose sons were they? They were sons of the poor. They were sons of laborers.

When there is a blast. The personnel of armed forces or police embrace martyrdom. They come under attack. Do you think it is rich people's sons who die? It is the poor people's sons who die. Therefore, I ask the sons of the poor, children of the oppressed, children of laborers and "middle classes," and youths to come forward to join our caravan of democracy. The police and army are told to fire rubber bullets, open fire on our own people. Do not do that. The actions of the sons and daughters of our soil should rise in the defense of our people. Their hands should not support the tyrant. Their hands should not be with "martial law."

After all, they are poor people and laborers. They should join the caravan of other poor people and laborers and make it a success for a better future of the country.

(Mirza) Benazir, please state if the new "alliance," formed by combining all other "alliances," will prove to be the electoral alliance.

(Bhutto) Yes, we understand that all "political parties" on the "minimum point" (Bhutto corrects herself) I want to bring together all "political parties" on the "minimum point." And I have talked to all "political parties" on the "minimum point." Our "minimum point" should be, which remains in my mind; but I would like to change the "agenda," if there is "consensus" on something else; our "minimum point" should be that General Musharraf resigns, an interim government is set up, and this interim government of "national consensus" conducts general elections. Rather, Nawabzada Nasrullah, may God bless him with Paradise, had said a long time ago -- the day one General Musharraf imposed martial law -- that "power" should be transferred to an interim government, a caretaker government, which, by supervising the general elections, should transfer power to the people.

Sister, I will have to take leave from you, because I have another "interview" to hold. I salute you and salute the brave sons and daughters of Pakistan. (Mirza tries to interrupt, but Bhutto continues uninterrupted) I will not leave them even if I am arrested. I will remain with them. "Thanks and" goodbye.

(Mirza) We would like to ask you one last question. (Bhutto is cut off with a beep of telephone) Thank you very much. (end recording) '

(Description of Source: Karachi Geo News TV in Urdu -- 24-hour satellite news TV channel owned by Pakistan's Jang publishing group, broadcast from Dubayy. Known for providing quick and detailed reports of events. Programs include some Indian shows and dramas which the group claims are aimed at promoting people-to-people contact and friendly relations with India.)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Drawdown Begins Sadrists call for New Parliamentary Elections

The US military has begun to reverse last year's troop escalation, which brought the number of combat brigades in Iraq up to 20. It is now going back down to 19, and will stand at 15 in July of 2008 if things go according to plan. That is, the number of US troops in Iraq on the eve of the 2008 election will be about 140,000. If the "take, clear and hold" strategy of clearing guerrillas out of Baghdad neighborhoods has been successful, and if Iraqi security forces can continue the "hold" stage on their own, and if Sunni Arab guerrillas and Shiite militias don't reemerge in the neighborhoods that the US abandons in the capital, then violence looks set to hold at some 10,000 civilian deaths a year.

That level of violence is horrible, among the worst in the world. But the American Right, having promised us garlands, then democracy and secularism, then peace both in Iraq and in Israel & Palestine, has finally declared that an ongoing low intensity guerrilla war is a glorious victory and is 'turning the corner.'

My best guess is that Iraqis will go on fighting their three wars, for control of Basra among Shiite militiamen; for control of Baghdad and its hinterlands between Sunnis and Shiites; and for control of Kirkuk among Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen. They will fight these wars to a conclusion or a stalemate. It is only the battle for Baghdad that has been fought at a lower intensity because of the American surge in any case, and I would be surprised if it does not start back up as US troops leave. Violence in all three wars was reported by McClatchy for Monday, with bombings and mortar attacks continuing in Baghdad albeit on a reduced scale. Violence in Kirkuk, and in the northern Sunni hinterland of Baghdad (Samarra) was already reported for today early Tuesday morning.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the police chief of Basra, Jalil Khalaf, says he has faced 7 assassination attempts and that his city suffers from religious and ideological terrorism that has caused the educated middle class to flee and led to the dominance of a band of "thieves" supported by political parties grown rich through the theft of materiel from the formal government security forces.

He said he has only been in office 4 months and has not had time to purge corrupt elements from the police who have given protection to militia and party leaders. He said that there is constant theft of petroleum products, antiquities, and livestock, and that the city had been flooded with weaponry and snipers. He admitted that police intelligence had been penetrated by the militias, which is how they knew his own location well enough to set roadside bombs for his convoy. He has narrowly escaped death on several recent occasions.

Khalaf said that the British had turned 4,000 vehicles over to the Basra police, but that he did not know the fate of most of them, since the Basra police only had 1335 vehicles left.

He pledged to reverse the recent downward spiral in Basra's security. But he said that foreign powers armed the militiamen, so that even if he could disarm them, the weapons would just be given to them again from outside. He pledged nevertheless to protect artists, intellectuals, writers and university professors from terror threats aimed at silencing them.

The problem is that Basra is Iraq's major port area, and the point from which most of its petroleum is exported, and if it is such a mess, it is hard to see how the Baghdad government can flourish. Mind you, Khalaf is saying that his own men routinely try to kill him, and these are the ones he is trying to deploy against the Shiite militias and tribal mafias!

The Sadr Bloc is now demanding the dissolution of parliament and the calling of new elections. If they follow through on this demand, the next step is for them to try to call a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister al-Maliki, a step that can be initiated by 55 members of parliament. The trouble is that they would need a majority of the full 275 member parliament to unseat him, not just a majority of a quorum. Gathering a quorum has been hard enough for the past year or so.

Sami Moubayid argues that PM al-Maliki will find it difficult to transcend his own history of narrow sectarian decision-making.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, two letters from the French politician Tallien on the disaster of the sinking of much of the French fleet by the British off Alexandria.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bhutto Calls for Musharraf to Step down Put under House Arrest

Opposition politician Benazir Bhutto has called for Gen. Pervez Musharraf to resign as president of Pakistan, and says she will never serve as prime minister under him. He put her back under house arrest on Tuesday.

My guess is that Benazir Bhutto will now be deported by Musharraf. He only let her back into the country under pressure from Secretary of State Condi Rice in the first place because she made a deal to cohabit with him politically.

However annoyed the Bush administration may be with Musharraf for letting the veil of 'democracy' drop and revealing clearly what a dictator he is, I can't imagine Washington backing Ms. Bhutto against the Pakistani military!

More on Pakistan and Afghanistan at the Global Affairs blog from Manan Ahmed and Barnett Rubin.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Poll: Turkish Kurds Would not Emigrate to a Kurdistan 72% say US soft on Terror

The Turkish Daily News reports the results of a poll of persons living in 14 cities in southeastern Turkey, which has a large Kurdish population.

Only 1% of those polled said that they would prefer to live in an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq rather than in Turkey (where they presently live).

Ominously, the percentage of respondents who said that the US fails to support Turkey in its fight against terrorism is 72.9 percent

Some 51 percent of urban southeastern Anatolians support the Turkish government in making an incursion into Iraq to stop PKK terror attacks, and about a third especially wish to target Iraqi Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani. About 40% think instead that the Turkish government should talk to Barzani.

This low estimation of the US as ally and terror opponent comes from the way the US has backed Iraqi Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani, who is widely viewed in Turkey (including among a plurality of Turkish Kurds) as giving safe haven to the PKK (Turkish Workers Party) terror group.

The respondents broke down this way by language:

Kurdish (Kurmanji): 52.8%
Kurdish (Zaza): 8%
Turkish (at home): 33.2%
Arabic: 13.5%

This breakdown might suggest that only 61% or so of the sample was Turkish Kurds. But in fact, many urban, educated Kurds speak Turkish, and some of the 33.2 percent that is Turkish speakers is probably of Kurdish ethnic origin. Although this ethnic diversity raises questions about how we should interpret some of the poll's conclusions, some of the findings are so robust that they must cross ethnic lines (distrust of the US e.g.)

The self-reported politics of the respondents fell out as follows:

Right wing: 37.4%
Neither right nor left: 21.5%
Left wing: 10.8%
No comment: 13.5%

This is what they think the most important issues are facing their region, in rank order:

1. Unemployment (41.9%)
2. Terrorism
3. Education
4. Social and cultural underdevelopment

When the rest of the Turks think about the southeast, they tend to think terrorism is problem number 1.

Very few said that they thought Turkish-Kurdish ethnic relations were actually the source of the troubles in their region.

The separatist Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), which conducts guerrilla actions against the Turkish military and ordinary Turks in southeastern Anatolia where the poll was taken, has left wing origins. They don't actually appear to represent virtually any urban Turkish Kurds. Other polling has found that Turkish Kurds (millions of whom have migrated west to work in factories) tend to vote just like other Turkish citizens living in their districts, and that there is not a pan-Kurdish political consciousness in Turkey.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Shiite Preacher Praises Increased Security Calls for Timetable for US Withdrawal

The USG Open Source Center translates Friday prayer sermons from last week in Iraq. Of particular interest is the sermon of Shiite cleric Sadr al-Din al-Qabanji of Najaf, who preaches at the prestigious mosque attached to the shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf. Al-Qabanji [al-Qabanchi] represents the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the de facto most powerful Shiite fundamentalist party in Iraq, since it controls most of the southern provinces and the province of Baghdad, and has a leading position in the cabinet and in parliament. ISCI, with its Badr Corps paramilitary, is the closest ally of the US in Arab Iraq but is also closely linked to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Al-Qabanji makes 5 major points, 4 of which will be pleasing to the Bush Administration. But the fourth is a call for the US to establish a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. One of the problems with the administration's announcement that things are going just fine in Iraq, now, is that if it is accepted as true, it raises the question of why US troops are still there. Unlike the Sadr Movement, ISCI represents the Shiite propertied classes, and if they are beginning to think this way, it is bad news for Bush and Cheney. In December of 2006, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who leads al-Qabanji's party, visited the White House called for US troops to remain in Iraq.

'Round-up of Iraqi Friday Sermons 9 Nov
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Monday, November 12, 2007 . . .

Al-Furat:

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, carries the following report on today's Friday sermons . . .

Shaykh Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji, imam and preacher of the Al-Najaf Friday sermon, says:

"Iraq in the end of 2007 and in the early 2008 is witnessing the following: First, the return of stability to Baghdad and the success of the security plans, and we praise Almighty God for this. Normal life has returned to Baghdad and terrorism has departed, God willing. We can see this fact now after they used to threaten Baghdad from inside it. After the Haifa street battles and after the continuous bombings at universities, ministries, police centers, and markets, praise be to God, the signs of security and stability have become clear as well as the success of the security plan, particularly the Law Enforcement Plan."

He adds: "Second is the return of the displaced and refugees. Baghdad has begun to receive tens of thousands of those returning to their homes, particularly from outside Iraq."

Al-Qabbanji says: "Third, is the phenomenon of the victory of unity against disunity. Unity has eventually triumphed. Iraq's enemies sought to fragment it through sectarian or ethnic seditions. They sometime say a civil war and some other time they say a sectarian war, but once again unity has triumphed over the sectarian and ethnic seditions. Unity has triumphed. The Iraqis have once again achieved unity between Shiites and Sunnis inside the Sunni house and the Shiite house. There is no longer any need to talk about the awakening of Al-Anbar, Diyala, and Salah al-Din. The Sunni tribes began to unite against terrorism and against Al-Qa'ida. Unity in the Shiite house, praise be to God, has improved significantly."

He says: "Fourth, let us make 2008 the year of unity for the sake of building Iraq. We are at the threshold of 2008. So, let this year be the year of unity for the sake of building Iraq and for reconstructing what was destroyed over the past tens of years of war. This needs cooperation and a serious stand by all sides."

Al-Qabbanji adds: "America should also assume its responsibility. It should be serious about the issue of restoring real sovereignty and independence to the Iraqi people. It should think of and set a timetable for the withdrawal of its forces and the multinational forces. After stability is achieved in Iraq the presence of the multinational forces will not be justified any more. America announced that the withdrawal of its forces will begin in mid-2008. We say that America and the multinational forces are responsible for setting a timetable for the withdrawal of their forces." '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Maliki Said to Induct 18,000 Militiamen into Security Services

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that PM al-Maliki has taken the controversial decision to recruit 18,000 members of Shiite militias into the Iraqi government security forces. (In fact, the Iraqi military has de facto been recruiting a lot of Shiite militiamen anyway).

You have to wonder if this step is intended to offset the American military's pressure to recruit Sunni tribesmen and neighborhood volunteers into the security forces.

Aljazeera is reporting that Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashimi has come out vigorously denouncing al-Maliki for this move.

Well, something has to be done with the Shiite militiamen. You can't just demobilize them without risking their turning to violence. I think it would be better to give them civilian desk jobs in some department where they can't do much mischief, until the Iraqi economy can get its act together. (Eventually Iraq is likely to get rich, and there will be plenty of jobs in the oil sector and in industry; the question is what to do with trained militiamen until that comes about.) But putting the militiamen in the official security forces will cause a lot of trouble.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Syrian officials say 1,500 Iraqis are being forced to leave Syria every day as a result of strict new visa requirements. Still, about 500 new Iraqi refugees are able to come into Syria every day, since they managed to get visas. There are an estimated 1.4 million Iraqi refugees in Syria. There is now a net reduction of 1,000 per day, so that if it continues, in about 4 or 5 years all the Iraqis will be out of Syria. Which is probably what the Syrian government intends. Note, however, that this influx of 7,000 Iraqis a week from Syria is not spurred by better security in Iraq (otherwise, why are 500 a day or 3500 a week still leaving Iraq for Damascus?) The exodus is being dictated by new Syrian strictness about visas and residency permits.

What I don't understand about American newspaper articles is why they let people like Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki dictate the headlines, even when the headline is undermined by the information gathered by the journalist who wrote the article. So the NYT reports,

' Most of the capital’s displaced people have yet to return, and the number of those leaving still outpaces those returning, according to Dana Graber Ladek, the Iraqi displacement specialist for the International Organization for Migration.

Over a million Iraqis have fled their homes in the past year and a half, she said, nearly three-quarters of them from Baghdad. And though the Iraqi government is offering one million Iraqi dinars, or roughly $812, to each Baghdad family that returns, she said, only a fraction of residents has done so. '

So, why isn't that the headline? "More Iraqis still Leaving Capital than returning to It"? Why is it al-Maliki's irrelevant assertion that "7,000 families" have come back to the capital? First of all, that isn't that many people, and second of all, what we want to know is if they are the ones kicked out of Syria during the past month.
And we want to know how many Baghdadis are still fleeing their own city every week. Do the editors just automatically cede the headlines to the Rich and Powerful? Why? Isn't this sort of complaisance toward propaganda what got us into the Iraq War in the first place?

Rashid Khalidi situates the American war on Iraq in the history of Western colonialism in the region.

Bob Drefuss at Tomdispatch.com has more on the issue of Iraqis still being displaced.

The tribal sheikhs making up the al-Anbar Salvation Council have suggested names to PM al-Maliki of tribal Sunnis who could serve as cabinet ministers in the place of the Iraqi Accord Front ministers who resigned this summer. The Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front is complaining that for al-Maliki to appoint cabinet ministers outside parliamentary channels would be unconstitutional.

John Bolton complaining about bureaucrats acting outside the rules would be like Britney Spears complaining about starlets with self-destructive lifestyles. Bolton attempted to do a hatchet job on Colin Powell, claiming that he-- gasp -- sought a diplomatic solution to the Iran issue. Bolton quite illicitly fired Jose Bustani for getting in the way of the Iraq War, and he once said that the US was not legally bound by the international treaties it had signed, that they were only 'obligations'. Even though Bolton was just an underling under Powell, he and his ilk always tried to withdraw from Powell the prerogatives of secretary of state, attempting to reduce him to their water carrier. He didn't have the authority to dictate diplomacy to Colin Powell, and now he has no authority at all. Putting Bolton on television all the time is bizarre. Who does he represent? Bad-tempered lawyers who are abusive to their employees and employers?

For the real Iran, not Bolton's fevered imagination of it, see Farideh Farhi's posting at the Global Affairs blog.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Pakistan Elections By Jan. 9 Emergency not to be Lifted Jama'at-i Islami Slams Bhutto

Gen. Musharraf says he will keep the State of Emergency in place but will dissolve parliament and hold new elections for it before Jan. 9 under a caretaker government. Provincial elections will be held at the same time. The Northwest Frontier Province, which is ethnically mostly Pushtun and some parts of which have become hotbeds of Muslim radicalism, had elected the Islamic Action Council (called MMA after its Urdu name) in the 2002 elections, but Musharraf has put a caretaker government in place there.

Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party, demanded in response that the state of emergency be lifted and gag laws abandoned before the election, if it was to be free and fair.

The fundamentalist Jama'at-i Islami and the right of center Muslim League (N) are saying that they will boycott the election if it is held under emergency laws.

I saw Qazi Hussain Ahmad (leader of the Jama'at-i Islami) on Aljazeera denouncing Benazir Bhutto as in reality working hand in glove with Musharraf to become his prime minister, and as only pretending to play an oppositional role. He predicted that she would gradually move closer to Musharraf and drop the pretence.

The USG Open Source Center translates comments on GEO of Fazlur Rahman of the Islamic Action Council (MMA) and former PM Nawaz Sharif vowing to boycott elections held under the Emergency decree:

'Pakistan: Nawaz Sharif, Maulana Fazlur Rahman Reject Elections Under Emergency
Words within double slant lines are in English
Geo News TV
Monday, November 12, 2007 . . .
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has said (at a press conference) that general elections will be held at the same time before 9 January 2008, while the National Assembly will be dissolved on 15 th November and the provincial assemblies will be dissolved on 20 November. A caretaker government (at federal level) will be set up on the same date (15 th November).

We have contacted (on telephone line) Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) Chief Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif to know his party's reaction to President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's press conference.

(Begin live relay) (Anchor Salman Hassan) Nawaz Sharif, President Musharraf says the emergency would pave the way for elections. What are your comments?

(Sharif) It will be absolutely contrary to the fact to state that emergency will pave the way for elections. Emergency is imposed to create hurdles (to elections), and this is not an //emergency// but a //martial law//. Can you imagine a //free and fair elections// under //martial law// or //even//under an emergency? Presently the //judiciary// has been ousted and the judges of the Supreme Court and high courts have been kept at their houses, rather they have been put under house arrest. And, the status of a very //pliant// election commissioner is such that he has become a personal servant (of Musharraf). So, if everybody has been detained under emergency, political leaders and party workers in thousands have been put in jails, and the //civil society//, the press and the media have been throttled, what kind of //free and fair elections// are going to be held. I think it will be a very big //fraud// to claim that elections will be //free and fair// in such conditions. Free and fair elections could not even be imagined.

(Hassan) Nawaz Sharif, what would happen then? Will your party //boycott// the elections?

(Shairf) You see, I believe that until the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) is not rescinded and all judges are not reinstated at 3 November position (before the enactment of state of emergency), these elections will be a //fraud// and it will be a big tyranny on Pakistan to hold elections in the present conditions. From what I have heard and saw about Musharraf's press conference today, it is an absolutely well thought-out plan to achieve success for Musharraf's //king party// (ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Qaide Azam). A very big plan for rigging (the elections) is being imposed. You see, how much time is left (for elections) and I am still outside Pakistan. Musharraf was repeatedly claiming today that he would provide a//level playing field//. Can it be termed a //level playing field// when Musharraf's //king party) members roam freely and all Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Sharif workers and the //civil society// representatives are put in jail? If you are actually providing a //level playing field//, why Geo News, ARY, Aaj, and Dawn News and other private channels have been closed down? So, what all these steps are indicating? That is why our demand is very clear that the PCO is immediately rescinded from the country and the elections are held only after the reinstatement of judges. I think that the time has come when all political parties of Pakistan, who genuinely want democracy in Pakistan, come together on this point and foil Musharraf's conspiracy against democracy.

(Hassan) Nawaz Sharif, you have presented a four-point proposal to Ms. Benazir Bhutto. Have you received any reply from her?

(Sharif) No, I have not received any reply.

(Hassan) So, what will be the strategy? If emergency continues until elections as has been stated, what would be the strategy of All Parties Democracy movement (APDM) and will (Benazir Bhutto's) Pakistan People's Party join it?

(Sharif) I think the APDM strategy, God willing, will soon emerge because I was talking to APDM (component parties) leaders in a different manner until yesterday as I was talking about launching a joint //struggle// by including the Pakistan People's Party. But after today's //development// of Musharraf's press conference, the talks with APDM leaders will now be held in different circumstances created after Musharraf's press conference today. So, I think (Musharraf's press conference) has further deteriorated the situation that existed before 3 November. I thought that the crisis would, perhaps, be contained and the situation would improve and the present //emergency plus martial law// would be ended, the judges would be at least reinstated and all mistakes would be rectified before the elections. But the situation has worsened further after Musharraf's press conference today. You see, the entire press conference reflected Musharraf's anger and resentment against the//judiciary//. I think his personal thinking is now full of //vengeance//against the judges and the //judiciary//. Musharraf was complaining that nothing was done (by judiciary) on the //reference// he filed against Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in March to oust him, but something could have been done on the //reference// only if he did not remove the Chief Justice from his post after filing the reference and then only a judgment could have bean passed on his //reference//. But the Chief Justice was removed//unconstitutionally and illegally// along with filing of the reference. The Chief Justice was called at the Army House...(incomplete sentence as heard)

(Hassan, interrupting) Thank you very much Nawaz Sharif for talking to us. (end live relay) (Anchor may have interrupted Nawaz Sharif's interview to comply with the newly introduced amendment to the Army Act under which criticism and actions of the Army personnel in public are banned)

Jamaat-e Islami Chief Qazi Hussain Ahmed has described Gen. Pervez Musharraf's press conference as an open contempt of the Constitution and the Judiciary. In a statement issued in Lahore, Qazi Hussain Ahmed said that the elections will be a fraud without the reinstatement of judges and end to state of emergency. He said that Musharraf's announcement of elections under the emergency law tantamount to ridiculing the nation and an attempt to fool the international community. Qazi Hussain Ahmed said that the time has come to adopt a joint strategy in consultation with the APDM and other parties.

We have contacted (on telephone line) Maulana Fazlur Rahman, leader of (six-party religious alliance) Muttahida Majlis-e Amal (MMA) in connection with President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's press conference.

(Begin live relay) (Anchor Salman Hassan) Maulana, President Musharraf says that the emergency would help in maintenance of law and order and holding of transparent elections. What you have to say on his claim?

(Rahman) You see, the press conference has raised many questions. Firstly, his manner of speaking means that he does not want to doff uniform until elections, while he had earlier stated that he would doff uniform before the elections or before taking oath of office (of president). Secondly, Musharraf mentioned the militant insurgency in the Northwest Frontier Province, Swat and tribal areas and the international media representatives were present at his press conference and the manner in which Musharraf answered their questions meant that he was giving an impression to the West that the emergency was necessary for him to send troops there under his //command// and under his (emergency) //powers// to fight terrorism. So, a question will definitely be posed that if the Army is directly involved in a war with its own people, how an atmosphere for elections could be created. He is, in fact, creating an internal chaos, but claiming that he is creating conditions conducive for elections. If Musharraf has not been able to achieve his objectives against terrorism in last 7 years, how would it possible for him to improve the situation by using the Army in just 7 weeks (before the elections). American and NATO troops are talking about ending terrorism in Afghanistan and Musharraf wants to use Army inside Pakistan. If international forces are not able to end the Taliban's resistance in Afghanistan, how would it be possible for Musharraf to achieve want he wants within 7 weeks.

(Hassan) Maulana, Please tell us one thing. No serious reaction against emergency was witnessed on behalf of the MMA, especially on behalf of Jamiyat-e- Ulema-e Islam (JUI), and no big protest demonstrations were staged. What is the reason for this?

(Rahman) The JUI is a part of MMA and the MMA at its meeting has announced country-wide demonstrations from 16 th November. God willing, the MMA workers will be on streets throughout the country on the 16 th November and formal demonstrations will be staged in every district headquarter. We had also suggested that a national consultative meeting is called so that all political parties and organization and representatives of the //civil society// jointly prepare a strategy. We had contacted Mian Nawaz Sharif, but he now talks about first settling things with the PPP. So, this has somewhat disappointed us in the sense that he does not want to immediately attend (the proposed national consultative) meeting in which the PPP is not present. That is why he has written a letter to Bhutto and he has sent its copy to me in which he has put some conditions to Bhutto Now until the matters are not settled between the PML-N and the PPP, how would it possible to hold fruitful national consultations. JUI is a part of the MMA and the JUI had some reservation and complaints with APDM and if the JUI could rise above its reservations and think it is necessary to sit together for serving the national cause, why these people (PML-N and PPP) cannot make the same sacrifice by rising above their thinking. So, obviously if such important leaders and parties fail to understand the gravity of situation and are prolonging the issues, JUI will also have the right to maintain its reservations with the APDM.

(Hassan) Thank you very much Maulana Fazlur Rahman. (end live relay)

(Description of Source: Karachi Geo News TV in Urdu -- 24-hour satellite news TV channel owned by Pakistan's Jang publishing group, broadcast from Dubayy. Known for providing quick and detailed reports of events. Programs include some Indian shows and dramas which the group claims are aimed at promoting people-to-people contact and friendly relations with India.) '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

A Sad Veterans Day; 1/4 of Homeless are Vets Bombings in Baghdad, Mosul, Diyala Showdown at Samarra

On Veterans Day, think about the thousands of US dead and wounded in Iraq (for what purpose, exactly?), and think about Iraqi Veterans against the War as Star Tribune columnist Nick Coleman suggests.

Typically this group and others like it are being denied a voice in public commemorations of the veterans (who apparently should be honored but should not actually be allowed to speak for themselves.)

It is worth reprinting today Michael Munk's recent email:

' US military occupation forces in Iraq suffered at least 178 combat casulties in the six days ending Nov. 6, as total casualties reached at least 61,596. The total includes 31,596 killed or wounded by what the Pentagon classifies as "hostile" causes and 30,294 (as of Oct. 1) dead and injured from "non-hostile" causes.

US media divert attention from the actual cost in American life and limb by routinely reporting only the total killed (3,855 as of Nov. 6) and rarely mentioning the 28,451 wounded in combat. To further minimize public perception of the cost, they cover for the Pentagon by ignoring the 30,294 (as of Oct. 1) military victims of accidents and illness serious enough to require medical evacuation, although the 3,855 reported deaths include 710 (up one since Oct. 31) who died from those same causes, including 130 suicides. '

2007 is the deadliest year yet for US troops in Iraq.

Some 48,000 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have been diagnosed with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and have difficult coping with life back in the US.

It is no surprise, then, that 200,000 veterans have been homeless at some point in the past year, and that veterans make up 26% of the homeless, even though they are only 11% of the population. Experts fear that many Iraq and Afghanistan vets will also end up homeless. The homelessness seems to me obviously an outgrowth of PTSD (which can lead to alcoholism and to the break-up of families, and generally to a reduction in emotional and kin support for an individual who seems habitually angry, distant, and acting a bit oddly). The article says,

' Younger veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan are trickling into shelters and soup kitchens seeking services, treatment or help with finding a job. Some advocates say the early presence of veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan at shelters does not bode well for the future. It took roughly a decade for the lives of Vietnam veterans to unravel to the point that they started showing up among the homeless. Advocates worry that intense and repeated deployments leave newer veterans particularly vulnerable. "We're going to be having a tsunami of them eventually because the mental-health toll from this war is enormous," said Daniel Tooth, director of veterans affairs for Lancaster County, Pa.'

Ironically, among the best things you can do to support the veterans is to give regularly to your local homeless shelter. (We should all be doing that anyway, since it is not a cause that is easy to raise money for, and government has tended to fall down on the job in this regard. One third of the homeless are families with children. You can easily find out which is the major local homeless shelter in your area.)

Health care for the Iraq veterans that actually is proffered by the US government will cost Americans at least $650 billion, or over $2,000 each. And even then there will be all those tens of thousands of homeless vets whose lives have been wrecked.

Speaking of the homeless, the new visa restrictions on Iraqis entering Syria has reduced the number of asylum seekers per month from 20,000 to 600. Since there is no evidence that there is a decline in the Iraqis being displaced from their homes by threats and violence, the 20,000 are likely just being displaced to other places in Iraq instead of going to Syria.

26 Foreign Service Officers of the State Department may still be dragooned into serving in a war zone and in a very dangerous Green Zone that cannot be protected from almost daily mortar and rocket fire. As long-time readers know, I am calling for Congress to close down the US embassy in Iraq, because it is not right to attempt to maintain a formal embassy in a war zone, where diplomacy cannot be practiced. It would also be an important first step to ending the Iraq War.

Reuters reports civil war violence in Iraq for Saturday, including several bombings that wounded fair numbers of persons in Baghdad, and a major clash between tribal levies and Salafi Jihadis near Samarra that left 18 dead. When the Jihadis used to kill 18 tribesmen, this used to be considered a sign of instability. But the other way around is interpreted as 'good news.' Problem: The so-called tribal sheikhs are not necessarily nicer people than the Salafis. Likewise, there is no reason to think that they are willing to accept the Shiite a-Maliki government.

McClatchy has more on Saturday's violence, including a major bombing in Mosul and several violent incidents around Baqubah in Diyala province.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog: it turns out that Gen. Bonaparte's new military hospitals in Egypt for his wounded troops did not get off to a very good start. The Iraq War vets are not the first soldiers to be neglected by their commander in chief once they are no longer at the front lines.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqi Kurd Op-Ed: Turkey must Recognize Kurds for there to be Dialogue

The USG Open Source Center translates an article by an Iraqi Kurd writer, "Diyar Gharib," calling on Turkey to recognize the Kurdish people as a first step toward productive political dialogue.

'Iraq Kurd writer says dialogue impossible without Turkey recognizing Kurds
Hawlati
Saturday, November 10, 2007 . . .
Document Type: OSC Translated Text


Iraq Kurd writer says dialogue impossible without Turkey recognizing Kurds

Text of article by Diyar Gharib entitled "What kind of dialogue with Turkey?", carried by independent Iraqi Kurdish newspaper Hawlati on 7 November:

We often hear from Kurdish or foreign officials that the PKK PKK crisis cannot be solved though military means but through dialogue. It is stressed that this age is the age of dialogue. The time of war and the language of war are over. For this purpose they call upon the PKK not to fight and instead try to solve their issue with Turkey through dialogue. To this point, everything is of course normal. It is normal that there are groups, parties and people who wish to have conflicts solved through peaceful political dialogue. This attitude deserves respect and is much appreciated. But what attracts attention about these external interventions that the people (who ask the PKK not to use violence) ignore the current and previous cease-fires observed by the PKK. They also fail to mention that Turkey not only has failed to respond or even acknowledge PKK cease-fires, but it has continued to attack the Kurdish people and the PKK in every possible way.

Furthermore, Turkey does not recognize the identity and existence of the Kurdish people. The odd thing is that the above-mentioned officials keep silent about these issues. This means they ignore the main reasons that cause violence and continuation of conflict and environment of war which are not the Kurds and the PKK but the ideology and political policy of the Turkish state. Turkish ideology is that any citizen who cannot say "I am a happy Turk" has no citizenship rights and are considered aliens to be punished and marginalized.

It is obvious that there are many dignified persons and groups in Turkey who, while consider themselves the citizens of Turkey, refuse to describe themselves as Turks. This is a natural right of these people to feel and express themselves in this way because they belong to different ethnic groups. The denial of differences and diversity and insistence on forcibly imposing one identity on all the national groups and cultures as well as imposing directly and indirectly non-democratic coercive laws and practices is in itself is terror and causes the creation of tension and conflict among different ethnic groups. Thus, it is the nation or power that has the political and state control and uses such non-democratic laws and practices that is responsible for the creation of terror and conflict among its citizens. Those who deny these facts today are the Turkish state and Turks not Kurds. The root cause of the conflict is the policies of the Turkish state.

Acknowledging this first, then it is normal to call upon the PKK to use peaceful means for the resolution of the Kurdish issue in Turkey. It is also normal to call upon Turkey too to respond to the PKK. But it is not right to speak of Turkey as if it were a peaceful innocent side of the conflict. Also when some talk about dialogue they should also explain the principles of dialogue to which democrats and peace-loving people must adhere because without such principles and criteria there would be confusion and ambiguity about those who want peace and those who insist on violence and war.
The following are some principles which I believe should set this straight:

1. The Turkish state must formally recognize the existence and identity of the Kurdish people in Turkey.

2. Turkey should recognize the PKK and accept to enter into dialogue and negotiate with them.

3. Turkey should accept international mediation in drafting a solution to PKK and Kurdish question.
These principles, the first two in particular, are basic and essential. Any call for peace and dialogue that does not pay attention to these principles cannot lead to any result apart from supporting the continuation of racist policies of denial and genocide against the Kurdish people.

Erdogan said recently (on the PKK): let them lay down arms and exercise politics within the framework of (Turkish) parliament. This statement by Erdogan was undeservedly exaggerated by officials and the media. They were quick to ask the PKK to immediately respond to Erdogan. Some were about to transform Erdogan, in our easy, to Ghandi. Thank God, Erdogan himself put an end to this when he said PKK officials must be punished while others could benefit from the repentance law. This is what Erdogan means when he asks PKK to practice politics under the umbrella of Turkish parliament. In other words, Erdogan has not said anything towards pursuing a peaceful solution of the Kurdish question. He was only reaffirming the same racist policies of Turkey in a political language.
If the PKK had accepted these policies of the Turkish state it would not have taken up arms in the first place. On the other hand, the PKK fighters are not bandits and robbers to take advantage of repentance law.

Here I find it necessary that Kurdish officials, the media and writers be careful enough not to make such big political mistakes. Today Turkey is in the middle of a crisis and it tries to use various methods to save itself from this it. Hence, it varies its political language to suit its purpose. Sometimes it talks of dialogue and peace. But whenever we hear these words we must not forget the principles I have mentioned earlier. We must also not forget that it is their parliament that has decreed a war.

Let us not fall in these traps again. Let us not allow others to trample on our rights in the name of peace and dialogue. '

(Description of Source: Al-Sulaymaniyah Hawlati in Sorani Kurdish -- weekly independent newspaper)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Did W. Create Ron Paul?

Gordon Robison argues that his stance on the Iraq War almost single-handedly explains Rep. Ron Paul's amazing fundraising ability (which recently outstripped that of Sen. John McCain, the last unreconstructed hawk on the Iraq War.)

I'm not sure it is just Iraq that drives Ron Paul's popularity, though of course that is part of it. I suspect that it is in some important part the abuse of government by W. and his administration that has made rightwing anarchism so popular. (It has done wonders for leftwing anarchism too: witness the reemergence of Noam Chomsky as a major voice after he had been marginalized for decades).

Government is a set of bargains, a 'moral economy.' We let the government take a certain proportion of our money, and we expect it to organize services for us that would otherwise be difficult to arrange. Anyone who has studied any history and economics knows that the market is going to leave some people destitute, and you need government to correct for that imbalance. It is no accident that government was invented by irrigation-based societies like Egypt and Iraq, where if someone did not organize the peasants to do the irrigation work and keep it up, everybody would starve.

Bush has broken the US government. The US military was there to protect us. Bush has used it to fight a fascist-style aggressive war of choice. FEMA is there for emergency aid. Bush did not deploy it effectively for New Orleans. Social security lifted the elderly out of the poverty that had often been their fate before the 1930s. Bush declined to use Clinton's surplus to fix the system, and has essentially borrowed against the pensions of us all to pay for his wars. Government is there to ensure our security. Bush has used it to spy on us, to prosecute patently innocent persons, to manipulate the media and instill us with lies and propaganda.

If government is to be conducted on Bushist principles, then who would not like to see the damn thing abolished?

I don't think Ron Paul would have run well in 2000, after Bill Clinton had demonstrated the ways in which government could contribute to our prosperity and well-being. Indeed, it was so important for the Right to destroy Clinton precisely because he did make government relatively effective and popular.

Ron Paul's popularity does not derive only from his opposition to the Iraq War. It derives from the sanity of the American people, who love liberty and reject Bushism. The opposite of fascism is not democracy but anarchy.

Given how horribly corporations like Walmart treat their employees, denying them the right to unionize and cleverly avoiding paying anything toward their health insurance, I have never understood why Libertarians think corporations would be nicer to us if we could not organize government protections from them. It is the government of the state of Maryland that protected workers from Walmart's exploitation of them. Libertarian faith in the utopia that comes from the withering of the state strikes me as just as impractical as the similar Marxist theory.

But after 7 years of Bush, I don't find it at all astonishing that large numbers of internet contributors would give Ron Paul money to campaign on getting rid of the Frankenstein's Monster of a government that George W. Bush has been constructing in his macabre basement of a mind.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Pakistan Dictatorship Pledges to End Emergency; Bhutto said released from House Arrest

The military dictatorship in Pakistan says that it has released Benazir Bhutto from house arrest and that it will end the State of Emergency within one month and go to parliamentary elections in mid-February.

Pakistanis have seen military governments make such pledges in the past, only to have them repeatedly broken, with elections postponed for as much as a decade. (In some cases only the death of the leading general has allowed elections finally to be held).

One reason Musharraf's pledges in this regard may be honored, at least in a surface way, is that he is facing far more public opposition to his coup than he had expected. Most lawyers and judges in the country are on strike, which makes it difficult for government and society to function normally. And while Musharraf stopped the planned Pakistan People's Party rally at Rawalpindi on Friday, he cannot be assured of always being so successful in blunting popular protests. The waning years of Gen. Zia ul-Haq's dictatorship in the mid-1980s saw substantial protests.

Then Musharraf is getting heavy pressure from the Europeans and to a lesser extent the Bush administration. The latter doesn't care very much about democracy, of course, but they do care about the potential for massive turmoil in Pakistan and even revolution. Still, Bush is backing Musharraf heavily in public.

Gary Sick says the situation reminds him of 1978 in Iran, when the US government had put all its eggs in the shah's basket, and had no plan B when the shah was overthrown.

But actually I think the evidence is that Condi Rice did develop a plan B, and it is called Benazir Bhutto. The US wanted Musharraf to become a civilian president and to allow Benazir to come back as prime minister. The Pakistani Supreme Court threw a wrench into this plan by trying to bar Musharraf from being president. Musharraf then made his coup, derailing the whole Washington plan.

Can the Rice plan be gotten back on track? Has Musharraf's high-handedness mortally wounded him as a potential civilian president? Will Musharraf really be able to risk giving up any of the power he has seized. Has he put Bhutto in a position where she has to oppose him in order to remain electable? Has her own willingness to compromise with Musharraf made her unelectable already?

Stay tuned.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Awakening Council in Diyala Bombed; Rumors of US Contacts with Sunni Resistance; Iran: Nukes forbidden in Islamic Law

A suicide bomber blew up a meeting of the Diyala Awakening Council of Sunni tribal shaikhs, killing five tribal chiefs who had been cooperating with the Americans against radical Sunni Salafi extremists.

Other violence in Iraq on Friday was concentrated in Baghdad, Diyala Province and Kirkuk, according to Reuters, and included roadside bombs and mortar attacks. McClatchy has more, especially on violence in the troubled Kirkuk province, which is contested among Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen (see the item below).

In a bid to tamp down the Iraq violence further (it is still the worst in the world), the Iraqi, the US and some regional governments have written formal letters to four Sunni Arab resistance movements. According to al-Hayat, they include the Political Council of the Iraqi Resistance, The Front for Holy War and Change, and the groups led by Izzat Ibrahim Duri, which fall into two sorts, some Sufis and the others Baathists. Al-Hayat says that these four have indicated a willingness to parley with the Iraqi government and its American backers, but insist that the talks be held outside Iraq and be guaranteed internationally (i.e. they want to be sure that they won't just be arrested.) Duri in the past has been dead set against negotiations, so I do not know what to make of this report; there is always the danger that such unsourced and shadowy stories are intended as psychological warfare, are intended to harm the morale and break the back of the resistance.

A majority of Iraq members of parliament opposes the extension of the US military mandate in Iraq by the United Nations Security Council, but these lawmakers are being sidelined and marginalized.

The Friday prayers leader in Tehran, a member of the Council of Guardians, reaffirms that Islamic law forbids nuclear weapons. The law of war in Islam forbids the killing of innocent noncombatants. Since nuclear weapons inevitably kill large numbers of innocent women and children, Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei has pronounced these weapons contrary to Islam and insisted that Iran does not want them and would not use them.

Fred Kaplan wonders what, in the wake of the departure of Karen Hughes as US public relations czarina, the US might do to improve its relations with the Muslim world. He points to the successes that US soft power had in the old East Bloc and wonders what today's analogies would be.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

The Kirkuk Crisis

The USG Open Source Center summarizes controversies over the prospect of the incorporation of Kirkuk into Iraqi Kurdistan in October and so far in November. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) comprises 3 provinces of the old Iraq, and wishes to incorporate 3 more. One of the provinces it wants to swallow whole is Kirkuk, an oil producing area. Thousands of Kurds have flooded into that province, and Arabs have been 'encouraged' to leave, so that if a referendum were held, the Kurds would certainly win it. The report covers a wide range of reaction and comment, including Iranian opposition to the holding of a referendum on Kirkuk's annexation by the KRG, and opposition by the Sadr Movement. It also considers threats against the Turkmen minority, which generally objects to being forced to join the KRG.




'OSC Summary: Iraq -- Kirkuk Roundup for October, November
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, November 10, 2007

This summary identifies major statements and activities concerning Kirkuk for October and November 2007. Iran called for a delay in the Iraqi Constitution's Article 140. Kurdish officials reacted quickly, offering terse rejections of the proposal. Meanwhile, the Kurds interpreted a Turkish incursion into Iraq chiefly as a ruse to destabilize Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iraqi Turkoman Front (ITF) reported that Turkoman have been threatened by an unknown Kurdish group. Iran Calls for Delay in Kirkuk Referendum

Iran went on record as opposing implementation of the Iraqi Constitution's Article 140, which calls for "de-Arabizing" the Kirkuk/Ta'mim province and holding a referendum by year's end to decide on its inclusion into the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

On Iran's News Network Television, Iran's Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said: "There are differences of opinion about (constitutional issues) such as . . . the issue of Kirkuk or the internal borders of provinces. We suggested a moratorium on these issues in order that decisions be made about them" (IRINN, 3 November).

Kurdish leaders offered terse rejections of the Iranian minister's proposal.

On 7 November, the Kurdistan Regional president's office (Mas'ud Barzani's outlet for official statements) stated: "These (Iranian) proposals contradict the Iraqi constitution; therefore we reject them. Such proposals are considered as interference . . . and further complicate the situation" ( www. PUKmedia. com, 8 November).

The head of Kirkuk's Provincial Council, Rizgar Ali, called for a strong Iraqi response to Tehran and stated: "This proposal is clear and direct interference by Tehran in Iraqi internal affairs" (The Kurdish Globe, 6 November).

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan media reported that a Sadr Trend adviser expressed his organization's opposition to incorporating Kirkuk province into the KRG.

Sadr adviser Rasim al-Marwani reportedly told Elaph website that they interpreted Kurdish action on the issue as "a kind of local imperialism and we never support linking Kirkuk to the Kurdistan Region" www.PUKmedia. com, 9 November).

Turkish Incursion Meant to Destabilize Kirkuk

A common position among Iraqi Kurdish media and officials was that a potential Turkish incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan aimed, not at destroying Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) insurgents, but rather at destabilizing Kurdish achievements in Iraq and slowing the referendum on Kirkuk.

Barzani's representative in Kirkuk and head of the Kurdistan Toilers Party, Qadir Aziz, stated: "This issue has a very negative impact on Article 140 . . . That is one of the aims of Turkey, and the postponement of the implementation of Article 140 might be one of the Turkish demands during negotiations" (Aso, 25 October).

Reported Threats Against Turkoman

The Iraqi Turkoman Front (ITF) reported that Turkoman have been threatened by an unknown Kurdish group called "The Emirate Group of the Occupied Kirkuk Branch." Turkoman protesting, www.kerkuk.net, 6 November.

An open letter, which called for Kurds to ready themselves to join Kurdish militia cells in case of a Turkish invasion, threatened the ITF leadership, stating that Kurds would "hold Turkoman responsible" in the case of a Turkish invasion, and that this was "the last warning" ( www. kerkuk. net, 6 November).

Suicide Attack in Kirkuk

On 7 November, a suicide bomber in a car attacked one of the offices of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Kirkuk, killing "several people" ( www. PUKmedia. com). '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Shiite on Shiite Conflict in Karbala, South; US Soldier Killed; Kurdish Party Bombed

That's all we need-- Iraqi troops raiding American mercenary units in Iraq. That will really settle things down.

Khalaf al-Ulyan, a Sunni fundamentalist member of parliament, condemned PM Nuri al-Maliki as a "dictator" because he unilaterally fired six Sunni Arab cabinet members. The six had tendered their resignations. According to the Iraqi constitution, the Prime Minister must accept or reject a cabinet member's resignation within one month. Al-Maliki declined to accept the resignations for three months, then suddenly fired the Sunnis for absenteeism, thus depriving them of pensions and other perquisites of office. Al-Ulyan pointed out that in any case they were provided to al-Maliki's cabinet by the Iraqi Accord Front, the Sunni fundamentalist party, and that he should have dealt with that party directly. Al-Maliki has refused to dialogue with the Sunnis in parliament over their discontents and declines to reach out to Sunnis who have kept their distance from the political process. Any reduction of violence in Iraq is clearly not bringing political reconciliation.

Raed Jarrar argues that the Iraqi cabinet, which represents only a small proportion of the electorate, has sidelined the parliament, which is more representative and is ruling by virtual executive decree. (Gee, I wonder where they got that idea). He also argues that the recent approval of two new technocrat ministers proposed to parliament by PM Nuri al-Maliki was done by only 110 members of parliament, which is not a quorum.

Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that a videotape has been shown on Iraqi television of police in the holy Shiite city of Karbala torturing local families and killing two children during the disturbances of 28 August.

The police in Karbala south of Baghdad are accusing the Mahdi Army of Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr of having killed several hundred persons in the past few years in that city. The police said that the Mahdi Army attempted to impose Islamic canon law on the populace, in the manner of a Shiite Taliban, and had run secret prisons where torture and executions were carried out. Spokesmen for the Sadr Movement, of which the Mahdi Army forms the paramilitary, denounced the charges as self-serving lies. The Sadrists said there has been a mass of unjustified arrests of their members by the Karbala police in recent months, and that the detainees have been abused.

Al-Hayat points out that the accusations have to be seen as part of a Shiite on Shiite power struggle. The police and administration of Karbala is dominated by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, which was formed in exile in Iran. ISCI has been in competition with the Sadrists for control of Karbala for years, and may be achieving its goal. The shrine city is a rich source of wealth, since millions of pilgrims visit it annually from all over the Shiite world and give offerings to whoever controls the shrine.

This week, the deputy governor of Karbala, Jawad al-Hasnawi, a follower of Muqtada al-Sadr, was forced to flee to Baghdad, having been charged with corruption. Likewise three elected members of the Karbala provincial council were charged with crimes. Al-Hasnawi met on Thursday with Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi (a Sunni fundamentalist who has poor relations with ISCI and the other main Shiite fundamentalist party, al-Da'wa, headed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki).

Al-Hasnawi charged, according to al-Hayat, that an official inquiry into the disturbances at Karbala in late August (which left 52 dead and led Muqtada to freeze the activities of the Mahdi Army) had implicated the police and the shrine guards (dominated by members of the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq) in killings then. He said that the charges against the Mahdi Army (Jaish al-Mahdi or JAM) were trumped up to take the focus off the police misbehavior.

Whatever the rights and wrongs, it seems clear that some sort of major power struggle broke out between the Sadrists and ISCI in Karbala in the last few months, and it appears to be the case that ISCI has won, and is now driving out the Sadrists from official political positions to which they had been elected. Since some proportion of the Karbala population does support Muqtada al-Sadr, leaving them disenfranchised is likely a recipe for further conflict. In fact, it seems likely that a Sadrist- ISCI struggle for the Shiite south will eventually come.

McClatchy reports that "4 unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad" on Thursday. In Diyala province, "Four civilians were wounded when a suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest attacked a café in Hibhib town west of Baquba city around 1:00 pm. "

Reuters reports more civil war violence for Thursday. Major incidents included the announcement of another US soldier killed in south Baghdad by a roadside bomb. Also, the bombing of the Kurdistan Democratic Party HQ in Kirkuk, which killed 13, has been followed up by another such incident. In Tal Asquf, north of Mosul, "One woman was killed and five people were wounded when a suicide car bomb exploded near the Kurdistan Democratic Party headquarters . . ."

These bombings appear to be part of a concerted campaign by Arab guerrillas against the Massoud Barzani faction of the Kurds, which have expansionist designs on Arab territory. Other attacks:

' NEAR FALLUJA - A roadside bomb killed three police officers including the chief of the al-Waleed police station and wounded another five policemen when it targeted their patrol north of Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said. . .

THAR THAR - Iraqi police found seven decomposed and handcuffed bodies in Thar Thar, 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

MAHAWEEL - Two blindfolded, handcuffed bodies were found with gunshot wounds in Mahaweel, 75 km (45 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded three Iraqi soldiers on patrol in the New Baghdad district of eastern Baghdad, police said.

BASRA - At least four people were wounded in a roadside bomb targeting the car of Basra Qahtan al Moussawi, the top education official in the southern governorate of Basra, 550 km (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said.

KUT - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed one civilian and wounded four policemen west of Kut, 170 km (106 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said. '

The bombing in the southern Shiite city of Kut is probably another manifestation of the struggle between the Sadrists and ISCI. The Islamic Supreme Council tends to control the administration and police in the south, but the majority of the population seems increasingly to support Muqtada al-Sadr. The attempted assassination of the education minister of the far southern province of Basra likewise reflected intra-Shiite struggles for control of the provincial government there.
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Musharraf Places Benazir Under House Arrest; Moderate Daily Slams US on Iraq

Pakistani dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf has ordered opposition leader Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People's Party placed under house arrest at her residence in Islamabad. Some 5,000 members of the PPP have been rounded up, and 50 close aides of Benazir have been arrested, according to Aljazeera. The moves were aimed at preventing Bhutto from leading a mass rally in nearby Rawalpindi.

The Musharraf government maintains that under the terms of the state of emergency declared by the general last Saturday, mass gatherings are forbidden. Most other major political figures had already been detained.

Musharraf also went on television to demand that the press and media report on the positive aspects of the brutal military crackdown and suspension of the constitution, rather than dwelling on the negative.

The USG Open Source Center translates an editorial in the Jang newspaper, Pakistan's largest Urdu daily, which is usually moderate and politically neutral. This piece, however, attacks the US presence in Iraq as an brutal occupation, aimed at stealing Iraq's resources and 'showering favors on Israel.' It also defends Iran (Pakistanis are mostly Sunni and have a rivalry with Iran). Jang owns the popular GEO satellite television network that broadcasts from Dubai and has been threatened by Gen. Musharraf. I take it that they are turning anti-American, partially out of disappointment because of US backing of Musharraf, and partially because they can attack the US as an indirect way of attacking Musharraf but without suffering the consequences. I repeat that this sort of strident language about the US had not been characteristic of Jang earlier, and it seems to me a sign of the radicalization of the Pakistani middle classes.

' Pakistan Editorial: Terrorism in Iraq 'Natural' Reaction to US Troop Presence
Editorial: "Peace is Not Possible Without the Withdrawal of Foreign Forces From Iraq"
Jang
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Text


The United States seized the opportunity to take unjust action against its rivals, in particular Muslims, following the disruption of the balance of power, the establishment of a uni-polar system, and upon America becoming the sole superpower of the world. The phrase "the beginning of the crusade" was uttered by President Bush on the eve of the invasion of Afghanistan. Although an attempt was later made to explain that it was just a slip of the tongue, the fact is that the United States and its Western allies have made Islam their target. Due to this very reason, they invaded Iraq after Afghanistan, claiming that Baghdad had started production of weapons of mass destruction and long-range weapons. In response, former Iraqi President Saddam Husayn invited IAEA experts and UN arms inspectors to visit the country and inspect its military installations.

These military experts combed holy shrines, mosques and religious institutions, desecrating them under the pretext of inspecting Iraq's military installations. They even searched Saddam Husayn's homes. The experts were compelled at long last to acknowledge that there was no evidence of the presence of nuclear, lethal, or other long-range weapons anywhere in Iraq. In spite of all this, the US subjected Iraq to repressive aggression, as a result of which hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have fallen victim to the coalition troops during the past five years.

The majority of the Iraqi people are deprived of basic needs and children are dying from a lack of food and medicine. Several coalition troops have raped Iraqi women. The sacred mausoleums of many prophets and God's messengers, besides those of Hazrat Ali, Imam Hussain, and Imam Askari, have suffered damage. The people of a country which is the largest producer of the purest oil has been rendered destitute and dependent on others. The United States has laid a pipeline from Iraq to supply oil to Israel. It is proof that the ulterior motive behind the invasion of Iraq was to seize the mineral resources of Iraq and to shower favors on Israel.

The coalition forces have failed to control the situation, despite using all the military might and force at their disposal, while committing aggressions and atrocities against the Iraqi people. As a result, the country has turned out to be a bed of thorns instead of a bed of roses. The Iraqi people continue to offer up stiff resistance and dozens of people are killed in suicide attacks every day. The suicide assailants are out to target the coalition troops and their installations. The farce staged by the United States to hold elections and set up a representative government in Iraq also failed, because by doing so it wanted to fan differences between Shiites and Sunnis to tighten its grip on the country.

Thus, over 44 political and religious parties boycotted the election, and dissociated themselves from the electoral process to clearly illustrate their distaste of the US designs. The so-called elected government also failed to overcome the situation. Keeping in view the growing resistance of the Iraqi people and the losses suffered by the coalition forces in terms of men and materials, several coalition countries have decided not to send more troops to Iraq. Several other nations, including Spain, have withdrawn their forces. There has been a strong reaction against this policy in the United States and EU countries, while protest demonstrations have become the order of the day.

Five years of the US aggression against Iraq have come and gone, and thousands of people held protest demonstrations in several US cities the other day over the mounting losses of US soldiers in Iraq. A large number of people participated in protest rallies in New York, Chicago and San Francisco. Many were relatives of the soldiers who joined the Iraq war and were killed. They demanded the withdrawal of the forces from Iraq and asked US Congress to stop payments for the Iraqi war spending.

Meanwhile, according to the latest reports, 38 people were killed in suicide attacks and acts of violence in different Iraqi cities. Bearing in mind the resistance of the Iraqi people and the rising loss of life suffered by the coalition forces, the US has decided to hand over control of Karbala Province to Iraqi security forces. Signs have also been given by the relevant US circles that the administration is considering handing over control of the entire country to the Iraqi government and security forces, and also considering the withdrawal of coalition forces.

On the one hand, the perception of failure on the part of the coalition forces in Iraq has strengthened after five years of unjust aggression against the country, while on the other, the United States and its disciples are busy preparing plans to attack Iran. Unfounded allegations that Iran is producing nuclear weapons are being leveled against it. The only crime of Iran is that it has succeeded in mastering modern nuclear technology and expertise in the enrichment of uranium. The United States and its lackeys, especially European Union nations, cannot tolerate any Muslim country mastering modern nuclear technology.

Pakistan has also become a target of their criticism, and unfounded fears and reservations in this regard. This hostility continues even today. So far as Iran is concerned, it has given permission to IAEA experts to visit and inspect its nuclear installations. In their reports after the visits, these experts acknowledged they were unable to compile any evidence relating to the production of nuclear weapons in Iran. The IAEA chief Mohammad Al-Baradi'i visited Iran himself and exchanged views with the Iranian leadership on the issue. After visiting Iran's nuclear installations, he also conceded that he gleaned no evidence of Iran manufacturing nuclear weapons, or the presence of such weapons in that country.

In a recent interview on American television, he also admitted that he had no evidence that Iran was preparing nuclear weapons. It would take Iran years to produce nuclear weapons even if it is pursuing a nuclear program. At this stage, we should seek a solution to the problem through negotiations, as there is no other option. The statement and admission of Mohammad Al-Baradi'i has been made at a time when the United States is clamping sanctions on Iran and lashing out at its nuclear program. It is also a fact that while expressing his views on several occasions on regional and international forums, the Iranian President Mahmud Ahmedinejad has been assuring the world that his country has no intention to produce nuclear weapons and that it will not create any hurdle in the way of visits by the IAEA experts. However, it will not forego its right to enrich uranium and effectively respond to sanctions imposed against it.

In such a case, the United States will be responsible for the hikes in oil prices at the international level and its negative impact on the global economy. It is regrettable that the blame game played by the US, Israel and their disciples is intensifying and expanding after targeting Iraq and Iran. Allegations that Syria is preparing nuclear weapons have also come to light, proving that only Muslim countries are the target of the US. Apparently, America fails to see the nuclear activities of Israel, South Africa and India.

The United States and its disciples have found no evidence of the production of nuclear weapons by Iraq and Iran. In such a situation, there appears no justification to impose sanctions on them. The truth is that the US is advancing its policy of providing protection to its favorite son Israel; accomplishing its aggressive designs; seizing the economic resources of Muslim countries; and keeping Muslims shackled by the bonds of slavery. God forbid, the map of the future Israel, as engraved on its parliament, includes the holy Muslim cities of Mecca and Medina. Israel says the bones of its ancestors are buried in these two cities and therefore it will occupy them. Threats of aggression against Syria and allegations involving the production of nuclear weapons are all part of the game.

The same situation has evolved in Afghanistan, which the United States and its disciples are facing in Iraq: the resistance of the Afghan people against allied troops is intensifying with each passing day. The establishment of a Taliban government was intolerable for the United States, because the Taliban had refused to support the United States against Iran and refused to give Washington the opportunity to intervene, by enforcing a system in accordance with their tribal nature and traditions. NATO forces are facing stiff resistance in Afghanistan and the farce of the Karzai regime has failed there as well.

The United States will have to confess to the ground reality that the reaction, resultant from targeting innocent people and massacring them, cannot be dubbed as terrorism. The ensuing provocation and tension from such acts is but inevitable and natural. In a way, the increase in the killings in Iraq and Afghanistan proves the fact that peace cannot be established until the United States and the Western world change their policies towards Muslim countries. Those killed in Iraq and Afghanistan are human beings, be they the local population or the coalition troops. It is impossible to imagine such a rise in the indiscriminate killing of human beings in the 21st century. Therefore, the sole superpower, the United States, and its disciples must keep in mind the feelings and sentiments of the international community, their own people, and the entire Muslim community, and withdraw their forces from Iraq and Afghanistan.

They should also abandon plans of aggression against any Muslim nation, so that peace and stability at the regional and international levels are ensured. This will help us focus on the problems of others faced by mankind. '

(Description of Source: Rawalpindi Jang in Urdu -- Influential, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan, circulation of 300,000. The country only moderate Urdu newspaper, pro-free enterprise, politically neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India relations.)
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Napoleon, Spukt, and Cole in Chicago at Oobleck

Theater Oobleck presents a conversation with Juan Cole of the “Informed Comment” blog and Chuck Mertz of the This is Hell radio program, to follow our 2pm Sunday performance of Spukt.

They will be talking about Juan’s new book, “Napoleon’s Egypt: Invading the Middle East,” which is indeed the very subject of Oobleck’s new musical extravaganza, Spukt!

Books will be available at a discounted rate.

For more on the play, check out this excellent preview article from the Pioneer Press.

at The Viaduct
3111 N. Western Avenue
Chicago, IL

$12 suggested donation,
more if you got it,
free if you're broke.


Please make reservations

by replying to oobleck a_t_ theateroobleck d o t com, or if it's less than 24 hours before the show,
by phone at 773-347-1041.

More on Oobleck at theateroobleck.com

And one last note: if you got any pals in Portland, Oregon, let them know that the Oobleck hit

Spirits to Enforce

is being revived through November 17 by the

Blue Stockings Theater Company.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

The Choice in Pakistan is Democracy or Talibanization: Guest Op-ed by Shahin M. Cole

Shahin M. Cole, Esq., writes:

'I am one of those Pakistan-trained lawyers you have been hearing about. I have spent the last few days watching on television how my colleagues have been dragged, kicked, and beaten by hired hands, just because of their political views. My former law school professors, some of whom are now judges or justices, are under house arrest. There is a real sense in which I left my country of birth precisely because of obstacles to the free expression of political and religious views.

Americans, who enjoy constitutional liberties of long standing, should support the lawyers in their protest against the suspension of the Pakistani constitution. Lawyers are supposed to act as the guardians of the rule of law. They are not supposed to be prisoners and hostages to the powers that be. There is no excuse for Gen. Pervez Musharraf to treat educated, accomplished attorneys and barristers, many of them human rights workers such as the prominent woman activist, Asma Jahangir, this way. Ironically, the general has often posed as a supporter of women’s rights, as when he established quotas to ensure the presence of women in parliament. Yet, he is now moving against women intellectuals and politicians for being outspoken.

How much of the blame for this crackdown can be laid at the feet of the Bush administration’s unconditional support for the Pakistani military? The events of this week put the lie to the idea of a democratizing Pakistan with an independent judiciary and rule of law. If the US wants to play a fair and honest role in helping Pakistan achieve democracy and reducing the threat of religious extremism, here is what it can do.

The US should be earmarking aid to Pakistan not for military use but for funding and building schools for the millions of poor Pakistani children (some of them still from refugee Afghan families displaced by the US struggle with the Soviet Union in the Cold War). Such schools should stress east-west understanding. That would be one way of keeping children out of fundamentalist-funded madrassas and keeping them from being turned into Taliban. Provision of rural adult education through television and of free country-wide wi-fi internet access would also aid development. This educational aid would cost a pittance in comparison with what is being spent on military aid, and would be far less expensive than is fighting wars in the region.

Washington should keep pressure on the present government to hold free and fair elections for parliament on schedule. US aid for election observers and voter education would be well spent. The Bush administration has stressed democratization and the rule of law in the Muslim world. If it does not take practical steps toward those ideals in this crisis, America will altogether lose the confidence of the educated Muslim middle classes. If that happens, the ultimate winners may well be the Taliban and al-Qaeda. '

Shahin M. Cole holds an LL.B. from Punjab University Law School in Lahore, Pakistan.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Suggested Reading

Barnett Rubin warns that knee-jerk support for Pakistani military dictator Pervez Musharraf is not exactly 'realism' of the sort some Washington politicians like to boast of.

Josh Marshall hosts a piece by Spencer Ackerman on how most of the billions Bush has given Pakistani military dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf has been an un-audited free gift in cash.

On the lighter side, Firedoglake speculates as to what George W. Bush really meant when he said, “I just spoke to President Musharraf before I came here, and my message was very plain, very easy to understand. And that is: The United States wants you to have the elections as scheduled and take your uniform off.”

The Center for American Progress has a new report out making recommendations on how to go forward on Afghanistan policy, aptly called "The Forgotten Front." I'll bet you if you walked around the street and asked Americans randomly how many US troops are in Afghanistan, few would know that the number is 20,0000.

A. Richard Norton announces that the annual 'Middle East' issue of Current History is now available.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, David Boyle has posted some great letters from French officers in Egypt in the summer of 1798, with the most recent one by Adj.-Gen. Pierre-Francois Boyer being especially meaty and detailed. This paragraph on the French conquest of the Mediterranean port of Alexandria is blood-curdling (and also surely exaggerated). Massacring the women and children in the mosque was not very nice.

' The charge is sounded—our soldiers fly to the ramparts, which they scale, in spite of the obstinate defence of the besieged: many Generals are wounded, amongst the rest Kleber—-we lose near 150 men, but courage, at length, subdues the obstinacy of the Turks! Repulsed on every side, they betake themselves to God and their Prophet, and fill their mosques—men, women, old, young, children at the breast, ALL are massacred. At the end of four hours, the fury of our troops ceases—tranquility revives in the city—several forts capitulate—I myself reduce one into which 700 Turks had fled—confidence springs up—and, by the next day, all is quiet. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Major Bombing of KDP HQ in Kirkuk 12 Dead; 14% of Iraqis Displaced

14 percent of Iraqis are now displaced from their homes. That would be the equivalent of 42 million Americans forced from their places of residence. I mean, it is a Stephen King-style futuristic apocalypse for Iraq. Only it has just happened, during the past 4 1/2 years. And the American government is responsible for kicking it off. Every time I hear in the US media about how "well" Iraq is going now, I want to spit.

Those Iranians that the US military kidnapped from the compound of our ally Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and from the consulate in Irbil? Turns out that they weren't espionage agents after all, or Qods Force operatives, or anything. The US military is releasing them. The charges against them formed one of the bases for the Kyl-Lieberman resolution in the senate and also for the recent designation by Bush of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps as a 'terrorist' organization (even though it is a state organ!) So will those two measures now be repealed?

Reuters reports civil war violence in Iraq for Wednesday. Major incidents:

' KIRKUK - At least 12 people were wounded in a suicide car bomb attack on the Kurdistan Democratic Party headquarters in Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

NEAR KIRKUK - Three people were wounded in a mortar attack on a village near Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

MOSUL - A parked car bomb wounded two Iraqi soldiers in al Ba'aj village near the Syrian border, the local mayor said.

SUWAYRA - A roadside bomb killed two children and wounded four others, including a woman, in Suwayra, 60 km (40 miles) south of Baghdad . . . Gunmen killed an Iraqi soldier in an attack on his house in Suwayra . . .'

McClatchy reports further political violence in Iraq on Wednesday. Major incidents:

' Baghdad

- At dawn, mortars hit the Red Crescent headquarter at Mansour neighborhood burning 2 vehicles belong to the organization.

- At noon, mortars hit the green zone (IZ) in Baghdad having smoke coming from the area with no casualties reported.

- Today afternoon, four roadside bombs targeted four convoys of the USA army in Doura ( once near Simoud factory and the second near Doura check point ) ,the third in Toubchi and the fourth was in Meshtal . No casualties reported in all incidents.

- Today afternoon, a sniper killed the son of Mizher Al-Sheikhli (a member of the political bureau of the Islamic party in Doura neighborhood .

- Police found 6 unidentified bodies . . . in Baghdad . . .

Diyala

- Army found a mass graves at Hashimiyat (10 km west of Baquba) having 17 unidentified dead bodies in it.

Basra

- Around 10.45 a.m., a roadside bomb targeted the commander in chief of Basra police and the commander of Basra operation center’s convoy on the road that leads to Zubair and near the Technology institution ( 10 km west Basra ) injuring 4 of their guards ( one of them was seriously injured ).'

I think someone is trying to kill the police chief of Basra.

For more on why US foreign service officers should not be Shanghaied by Bush into service in Baghdad, see Patricia Kushlis at Whirledview, commenting on an article by Ambassador David Passage (pdf).

Remember, everyone should please blog the need for Congress to close down the behemoth of a US embassy in Baghdad, and write and call your representatives in the US Congress urging them to cut off funds for it.

The USG Open Source Center summarizes Iraqi television news on political developments. These include the petty and vindictive way PM Nuri al-Maliki refused to accept the resignations of Sunni Arab cabinet ministers, but rather dismissed them for absenteeism, ensuring that they would be deprived of pensions and other perquisites of office. For a Shiite to treat important Sunni politicians this way sends very bad signals and is not a step toward political reconciliation, to say the least.

'"Al-Sharqiyah, Al-Iraqiyah Report on Latest Developments in Iraq
Iraq -- OSC Report
Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Dubai Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic, independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic-language daily Al-Zaman, carries between 1600 GMT and 2000 GMT on 7 November the following reports on latest developments in Iraq:

-- "Iraq Prime Minister once again said that the nomination of a number of ministers to fill the posts that became vacant in the Iraqi Government almost a year ago, will end soon. During a meeting with the European Union's ambassadors to Iraq, who asked about the confusing situation the government is now in as a result of the absence of 25 ministers, Al-Maliki said that he is in the last stage of nominating new ministers and that he will do whatever necessary to ensure that people are provided with all their needs and requirements, as he put it."

The report adds: "According to a government statement, Al-Maliki said during his meeting with the European Union's ambassadors accredited to Iraq that the progress achieved in Iraq came as a result of the reconciliation process, which moved in the right direction toward strengthening relations among all components of the Iraqi people, as the statement put it. It is worth mentioning that parliamentary blocs and international organizations accused Al-Maliki's policy, as well as the role of his advisers, of ending the reconciliation process in Iraq."

-- "Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki issued an order dismissing Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front [the Sunni Arab Iraqi Accord Front] ministers for being absent from duty. According to a source close to Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, Al-Maliki rejected the letters of resignation the ministers submitted several months ago. According to a paragraph on absence from duty, the dismissal of the ministers will deprive them of the rights and benefits mentioned in Paragraph 1 of Order 9/2005 on pension, protection, and housing." . . .

-- "Nechirvan Barzani, head of the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government, gave the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq a firm warning, asserting that any failure to abide by the ceasefire with turkey will do great harm to it (the PKK). During a news conference held at the headquarters of the Council of Ministers in Arbil, Barzani said that the PKK will be greatly harmed if it continues to adopt the current approach without announcing an unconditional ceasefire. Meanwhile, security sources said that a Turkish soldier was killed late last night when PKK insurgents opened fire on a Turkish police center in the province of Tunceli."

Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic, government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network, carries within its 1700 GMT newscast the following reports:

-- "Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamil al-Maliki received Reuben Jeffery, US undersecretary of state for economic, energy, and agricultural affai rs, in his office today. During the meeting, Al-Maliki said that the Iraqi Government has plans next year to push forward economic development and reconstruction in the country after achieving good results on the security level."

"The prime minister also received the European Union's ambassadors to Iraq in his office today. He discussed the latest political and security developments in the country and the progress achieved in reconciliation efforts."

-- "Ahmad Chalabi, head of the Security and Services Committee, visited the Al-Taji, Al-Falhat, and Sab al-Bur areas, to get a first-hand look at the living conditions of citizens and the level of services provided for these areas. He also inquired about the security situation and met with a number of chieftains and dignitaries. He discussed with them the return of displaced families and means of providing protection to them through cooperation between citizens and security services."

Chalabi says: "I came to inspect the security situation, which, thanks be to God, is calm, and the services situation as well. There is a very important problem; namely, the problem of displaced people in Baghdad. One of the keys to solving this problem is the Sab al-Bur area, whose population was one hundred thousands, but it is now less than 20 thousands." He adds: "We want to reassure the residents in these areas that the state and the US forces in this area are capable of maintaining security."'
For "cont'd" postings, click here.