Informed Comment

Ambassador Marc Ginsburg is astonished that John McCain could win in Florida on a platform of a Hundred Years War in Iraq and phony slogans about “victory” that McCain is careful never to define. In my view, McCain’s mantra about “victory” in Iraq is the 2008 equivalent of Nixon having a “secret plan” to end the Vietnam War in 1968. Somebody should please ask McCain what “victory” would look like exactly and how he would get there. Intensively patrolling some neighborhoods and cutting them off from traffic with blast walls are not measures that can be kept up for very long. Then what?

Besides, someone please do me a favor and actually read the list of bombings and killings appended at the end of this post, occuring in downtown Baghdad and elsewhere, and tell me why John McCain thinks things are just hunky dory there. Is it a racist thing where it doesn’t matter how many Iraqis are killed as long as US troops aren’t? Even then, 5 US troops were blown up on Monday. Yeah, that’s real calm.

A new professional poll carried out by a British firm in Iraq concludes that excess deaths from violence since March 19, 2003 through summer 2007 came to just over 1 million. Note that excess deaths from violence do not necessarily imply that they are directly war-related. Thus, murders of a criminal sort, tribal feuding, and so forth would be included. Since Bush interfered with the establishment of a strong new government after his invasion, he promoted the sort of insecurity that permitted high rates of violence, whether political, criminal or war-related. This poll tracks with the findings of the studies of Gilbert Burnham and Les Roberts, published in the Lancet and disputes lower numbers found by a recent WHO study (which, however, only ran through June 2006 and was limited solely to civilians–this British study goes to 2007 and seems to include everyone.)

The British findings are also consistent with estimates of between 1 million and 2 million widows in Iraq. These widows, many of them young, face extreme poverty without a breadwinner. As the Iraqi street has been captured by religious parties and militias, gender segregation and female seclusion have increased, which prevents single young women from going out to work in mixed-gender settings like stores and workshops. In short, Iraq is being Talibanized by Bush’s war.

Reuters points out that almost none of the widows are getting any welfare payments from the Iraqi government. It adds: “A report by aid groups found that 43 percent of Iraqis lived in “absolute poverty”. Four million people needed food assistance and only one in three children under five had access to safe drinking water.”

A new poll finds that the percentage of Americans who think the war to overthrow Saddam Hussein was worth it to the US declined from 35% to only 32% between December and January. The percentage who thought it was not worth it rose from 56% to 59% according to the same poll. It turns out that the American public is not impressed with a mere reduction in violence nowadays from apocalyptic levels last year this time. They want to know why we went there in the first place, and why their sacrifice of blood and treasure was worthwhile. No one, including McCain really has an answer for that.

Bush signed a law forbidding him from spending money to make permanent bases in Iraq but at the same time issued a signing statement making clear he had no intention of paying any attention to that or several other provisions in the legislation. What do you call a leader unconstrained by his legislature? An absolute monarch. I thought we had a revolution to get rid of that sort of thing.

McClatchy reports political violence for Wednesday:

‘ Baghdad

A member of the national police was killed and another four members were injured in an IED explosion that targeted their patrol near al Mustansiriyah University in Waziriyah neighborhood east Baghdad around 7:00 am.

Two civilians were injured in 2 IEDs explosion in al Nidhal Street downtown Baghdad around 7:15 am.

Five members of the national police were injured in 2 IEDs explosion that targeted their patrol underneath Ghadeer bridge in Ghadeer neighborhood east Baghdad around 7:30 am.

Three civilians were injured when a mortar shell hit al Mansour neighborhood west Baghdad around 8:00

A joint force (Iraqi and US army) raided the office of Atheer cell phone network in Mansour neighborhood west Baghdad today afternoon and arrested 8 employees

Police found three anonymous bodies in Baghdad . . .

Kirkuk

A police source said that a police patrol found two head of men near one of the factories in Doz town south of Kirkuk today morning. The source said that the two heads were [of] two Turkmen men called Sabah Fadel and Mohannad Jum’a who were kidnapped a week ago.

Anbar

A member of Abo Zakarya Sahwa office (Abo Zakarya awakening office ) was killed and three others were wounded in a suicide car bomb that targeted the office in Thiraa’ Dijla area northwest of Baghdad on Tuesday afternoon.

Mosul

Gunmen killed Dr. Khaleel Ibraheem, the head of the Sharia in the college of the Islamic sciences in Musol University and one of his students in al Mishraq neighborhood east Mosul city today afternoon.

Diyala

Gunmen attacked a house in Bardaniyah village, 7 Kms north of Baquba city killing the father and injuring his two sons and his daughter.

Gunmen attacked abdul Hameed village, 10 Kms north of Baquba kidnapping three civilians.’

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Several new studies have just appeared warning that things could go very badly very easily in Afghanistan, which could turn into a failed state. One bad side effect, a British study concluded, would be the discrediting of NATO.

Barney Rubin weighs in on what could be done from Kabul.

An Australian study thinks Australian troops will still be needed 15 years from now in Afghanistan, and that the central government still will not have control of some of the Pushtun regions where al-Qaeda was strong in the past.

Today’s news from Afghanistan includes a suicide bombing and the finding of decapitated bodies.

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AP reports that:

‘ A bomb exploded at a checkpoint Tuesday in Baghdad, wounding five American soldiers and three civilians, the U.S. military said. Iraqi officials claimed it was a suicide bombing and said two people were killed. The attack occurred just after noon as women were being searched before being allowed to enter a commercial street in the predominantly Sunni Amariyah neighborhood in southwest Baghdad, according to a local police official and an Iraqi army officer.” ‘

The wounding of these US troops follows a day after five US troops were killed in a roadside bomb attack on Monday in Mosul. This attack was the second-deadliest this year, and brings the total so far for US fatalities in Iraq to 37, far more than December’s 23. The commitment of troops to an actual set of engagements in Mosul led to these recent deaths, and I have for some time wondered if the fall in troop deaths was simply because they were no longer being committed to ground campaigns in any numbers. The recent attack on Arab Jubour appears to have been done mainly from the air, as Tom Engelhardt points out, and when afterwards troops were sent in, they were at risk from roadside bombs.

AP reports that a ceremony was held on base on Tuesday for the five troops killed Monday, as their bodies were loaded in an airplane:

‘ At a U.S. base outside Mosul, scores of U.S. troops and an honor guard stood at attention on the airfield tarmac as five coffins of their slain comrades were loaded onto a plane for the journey home.

A cold wind blew as the bleak ceremony began. Five groups of eight pallbearers each took turns unloading a flag-draped coffin from the back of five Humvee ambulances, as about 75 members of the fallen soldiers’ unit stood at attention.

At least 100 other soldiers stood erect and silent through the 30-minute ceremony. Even civilian workers at the airport of Forward Operating Base Marez on the outskirts of Mosul formed an honor line as the dead soldiers bodies’ were loaded into a gray C-130 transport plane.

Soldiers refused permission to photograph the ceremony, saying the pain of the sudden loss of five comrades was too great, and that not all the families had been notified.

“President Bush should be out here watching this ramp ceremony to see what it is really like,” said one soldier, who asked not to be identified.

“The people who created this war need to be thinking about the families of these 18-year-olds who are dying.” ‘

Let me just repeat that last phrase: “The people who created this war need to be thinking about the families of these 18-year-olds who are dying.” That was said by one of our patriots in Iraq. It is true. It made me cry a little.

On Tuesday, 9 headless bodies and 10 heads [sic] were found in a field in Diyala province. McClatchy says that police found DVDs containing confessions that the men belonged to an Awakening Council group. So this was likely Baathists of Salafi Jihadis killing what they saw as collaborators. The US gives a stipend of $250 a month to most Awakening Council militiamen.

US officers in Iraq seem uncomfortable with the diction of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who announced that the current military operation in Mosul would “finish off” “al-Qaeda.” Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling said that taking on the rebels would be “a long process.”

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

‘ Baghdad
4 Iraqi Army servicemen and 6 civilians injured as IED exploded targeting an army patrol in Bab al-Sharji, Sadoon St. in central Baghdad at 08:00 this morning.

3 policemen and 5 civilians injured as IED exploded targeting a police patrol Sina’a St, the industrial neighbourhood near The University of Technology at 08:30 this morning.

An IED targeted an American military patrol in Canal St. east Baghdad. No casualties reported.

3 civilians injured in an IED explosion in al-Dakhiliya neighbourhood, al-Yarmouk, south Baghdad at 10:30 am..

A mortar round hit al-Fdhailiyah neighbourhood, east Baghdad injuring 2 civilians at 11:00 am.

3 Katyusha missiles hit the green zone starting at 02:50 this afternoon at almost 30 minute intervals. No casualties were reported. . .

3 bodies were found in Baghdad today by Iraqi Police. 1 in Ma’amil, 1 in Shaab and 1 in Doura.

Mosul

A vehicle born IED driven by a suicide bomber targeted an American military patrol in al-Thubbat neighbourhood, central Mosul Killing 1 and injuring 15 civilians. The Americans cordoned the area off. No American casualties were reported.

2 policemen killed and 2 injured as gunmen attacked a vehicle carrying 4 policemen of the Mosul police force on the main road to Baghdad yesterday afternoon.

Anbar

An armed group attacked a police commander’s motorcade which was also carrying some high ranking officials of the Tharthar area near Saqlawiyah town 20 km to the north of Fallujah, but were unsuccessful in their attempt. A police force was sent on their trail, with allegedly Sahwa members. They rounded up 20 people suspected of being amongst the attackers and executed them in the same neighbourhood. [sic]

Two truck drivers were abducted and taken along with their trucks on the route between Fallujah and Tharthar. Their hands were bound and they were killed by releasing their freight of pebbles upon them.

The police at Saqlawiyah police station opened fire upon two suspicious men headed for the police station. The two men then exploded and it was found that they had been wearing explosive belts. 5 policemen were superficially injured.

Salahuddin

District Commissioner of Salman Bek district and member of the provincial council for the Kurdistan Coalition party, Talib Mohammed Mustafa survived an assassination attempt. He and his driver got away from the attack that was carried out with machine guns and other light weapons on the main road to the south of Tuz.

Fatma al-Haseni was seriously injured and her two colleagues were killed by gunmen in the Mahatta neighbourhood on the way between Baghdad and Tikrit this afternoon. Al-Haseni and her deceased colleagues worked for the Furat satellite station.’

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When Bush first came in, the comedian Will Ferrell did a skit on the television show “Saturday Night Live” that depicted the president cowering under his desk as bombs went off in Washington and the country went down the tubes. Coming after the prosperity and relative peace of the Clinton years, it seemed a fantastic parody. Little did we know that if anything SNL did not begin to capture the full extent of the catastrophe.

Nobody cares any more, unlike in 2003 when shills for the war were always on my case to “report the good news” and lay off Bush. Some of my “arguments with Bush” during the past 7 years were internet bestsellers. Now, the man has discredited himself so badly, he can’t even get people to so much as yawn at him. But in honor of all those arguments of the past, I’m doing it one last time.

As usual, most of what he said in the State of the Union address was transparent lies. He praised private groups for doing charity work in Louisiana because he hasn’t followed through on his own promises after Katrina. He did that phony thing of reporting the average tax “increase” if his “tax cuts” were allowed to expire. If I’m in the room with someone who made a billion dollars last year and Bush doesn’t cut my taxes at all but he cuts those of the billionaire such that he saves 5% of his income, then the two of us in the room have an average tax cut of $25 million apiece. But in the real world, I get bupkus and the billionaire gets $50 million. That shell game sums up the Republican “tax cut” scam they keep running on the American middle class, which always falls for it.

So here are some last arguments with the man’s bald faced lies, for old times sake.

Bush assertion: “We believe that the most reliable guide for our country is the collective wisdom of ordinary citizens.”

Sad Fact: Indiana GOP tries to keep ordinary citizens from voting with restrictive photo identification law.

Bush assertion: “And so, in all we do, we must trust in the ability of free peoples to make wise decisions and empower them to improve their lives for their futures.”

Sad fact: Amit Paley writes, “A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to immediately withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure would make Iraq more secure and decrease sectarian violence, according to new polls by the State Department and independent researchers.
In Baghdad, for example, nearly three-quarters of residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent of those asked favoring an immediate pullout . . .”

Bush assertion: “We’ve seen Afghans emerge from the tyranny of the Taliban and choose a new president and a new parliament.”

Sad fact: “Afghanistan Journalist sentenced to Death for Blasphemy” and I don’t think women would agree with Bush’s rosy picture of progressive democracy in Kabul. Not to mention that half the country’s gross domestic product is generated by the heroin trade. Bush goes on to say that his democratic projects are only being interrupted by terrorists; but all the problems above are problems with the establishment, not with terror groups.

Bush assertion: “From expanding opportunity to protecting our country, we’ve made good progress.”

Sad fact: Bush’s Iraq is a major generator of terrorism, which it was not before 2003. “Iraq has replaced Afghanistan as the prime training ground for foreign terrorists who could travel elsewhere across the globe and wreak havoc, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials and classified studies” by the CIA and the Department of State, Warren P. Strobel reported July 4, 2005. “Iraq’s emergence as a terrorist training ground appears to challenge President Bush’s rationale for invading and overthrowing leader Saddam Hussein in March 2003,” Strobel wrote.” So we are safer how again?

Bush assertion: “We launched a surge of American forces into Iraq. We gave our troops a new mission: Work with the Iraqi forces to protect the Iraqi people, pursue the enemy in his strongholds, and deny the terrorists sanctuary anywhere in the country.”

Sad fact: “The Iraqi Red Crescent Organization and the U.N. reported last month that the “number of Iraqis fleeing their homes has soared since the American troop increase began in February. . . The chart reports some decreases in the intensity of “ethno-sectarian violence” in certain Baghdad districts (Note: This is based on military data). But where there have been decreases, they are due largely to the fact that “mixed Muslim” areas are being overrun by either Shia or Sunni enclaves.The map above demonstrates that Shias have been gradually taking over all of Baghdad (noted by the green mass that now covers much of the city), wiping out Sunni communities that stood in their path. Center for American Progress analyst Brian Katulis estimated that Baghdad, which once used to be a 65 percent Sunni majority city, is now 75 percent Shia.”

A large proportion of the 1.5 million Iraqi refugees in Damascus was displaced to Syria during 2007, apparently as a side effect of Bush’s troop surge.

So all this involves “protecting the Iraqi people” how, exactly? Does Bush think Iraqis are safer when they are refugees in a foreign country?

He won’t be missed.

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The USG Open Source center translates from an Iraqi television report, “Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki pledged to end the crisis facing his government as a result of the recurring withdrawals of the political blocs, asserting that there will be a change this week. In press statements, Al-Maliki said that the Presidency Council gave him two weeks to announce a new government — either with the return of the ministers of the Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front and the Iraqi List or forming a new government. He added that there is only one week to do so, pointing out that if a new government is formed, it will be based on criteria other than the sectarian quota system.”

The Presidency Council ultimatum has put pressure on al-Maliki to bring the [Sunni fundamentalist] Iraqi Islamic Party back into his government, but I haven’t seen evidence that Iyad Allawi’s secular National Iraqi List is thinking of rejoining the cabinet.

Tensions are increasing between the Kurdistan Alliance and the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Outstanding issues include Kurdistan oil deals pursued independent of the Federal government, and the Baghdad government’s foot-dragging on arranging for a referendum in Kirkuk province on whether it should accede to the Kurdistan Regional Authority (a provincial confederacy wherein 3 provinces have erased their boundaries and elected a join parliament).

The Kurdish newspaper Hawlati reported on 27 January that Kirkuk Governorate Council member Muhammad Kamal has threatened to cut off links with Baghdad if Article 140 of the constitution, which provides for the referendum, is not implemented.

In a phrase appropriate to the state of news and analysis about Iraq in general, the USG Open Source Center quotes from Sharqiya or Iraqiya television: “Iraqi Defense Minister Abd-al-Qadir al-Ubaydi said that the situation in Mosul in central Ninawa Governorate in northern Iraq is much worse than he was told.” The Interior Ministry is recruiting 3,000 men to combat the guerrillas, in part from clans who saw loved ones killed or injured in the recent bomb blast near Mosul.

The USG Open Source Center reports from Iraqi television, “In Maysan Governorate in southern Iraq, the authorities set up a crisis management cell in the governorate. Meanwhile, a number of imitators of Ahmad Bin-al-Hasan, also known as Al-Yamani, were arrested. A source at the Maysan Governorate Police Department said that the cell, which is headed by the governor of Maysan and includes the police director, the head of the governorate municipal council, and a number of members of the Council of Representatives, aims at running the security affairs of the governorate in emergency cases and preventing any security violation there. He added that detachments from the Maysan Police Department arrested a number of Al-Mahdi (as heard) followers in Maysan for involvement in the incidents that took place in Basra and Al-Nasiriyah.”

Maysan is ruled by the Sadr Movement, which is clearly alarmed by the millenarian Supporters of the Mahdi. (The Sadrists are also mild millenarians, so this other movement is real competition for them). The report is saying that claimants to be the Mahdi or the Promised One of Islam are cropping up all over southern Iraq, and that the inchoate movement swirling around them easily turns violent. Think the David Koreish group at Waco on steroids.

Sawt al-Iraq reports that on Saturday afternoon, Shaikh Sami Husayn, the head of the Marsh Arab Bahadili tribe, was kidnapped in downtown Basra. On Sunday morning, his body was found in the street, with three bullets in his head. Shaikh Sami had been a member of the Baath Party under Saddam. Basra’s factions tribes are likely to be mired in a feud as a result of this assassination.

Reuters reports that:

‘BAGHDAD – One U.S. soldier was killed by a roadside bomb while he was on patrol in Baghdad on Saturday, the U.S. military said. . . ‘

McClatchy adds accounts of further attacks:

‘ Baghdad

Around 10:00pm Saturday night, gunmen broke into the house of Ahmed J[a]wad Hashim, a former general director in Baghdad municipality during Saddam’s regime. The attack took place in Talbiyah neighborhood east Baghdad. The gunmen slaughtered Hashim, his wife, his daughter and his son, police said.

[Six] people were injured (3 civilians and two soldiers) in an IED explosion that targeted an Iraqi army patrol near al Nida’a mosque in Qahira neighborhood east Baghdad around 7,30 am.

Around 7:45 am, gunmen kidnapped a bus with its passengers (5 female employees who work in the college of languages) in New Baghdad neighborhood east Baghdad.

Around 10:00 am, an IED exploded near Saj al Reef restaurant in Karrada neighborhood downtown Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

A US army hummer was burnt in an IED explosion near the medical cotton factory intersection in Waziriyah neighborhood east Baghdad around 12:00 pm. The US army confirmed in a press release the news about the attack saying that one soldier was killed in the explosion.

Police found four anonymous bodies in Baghdad. Two bodies were found in Rusafa, the eastern side of Baghdad in the following neighborhoods (1 body in Sadr city and 1 body in Qahira). The other two bodies were found in Karkh, the western side of Baghdad in the following neighborhoods (1 body in Amil and 1 body in Bayaa)

Diyala

Two civilians were injured when an IED exploded near their house in Sadiyah area east of Baquba city today afternoon.

Police found four anonymous bodies in one of the orchards in Shirween village, part of Muqdadiyah town east of Baquba city.

Two policemen were injured in clashes between the Iraqi police and gunmen in Dalli Abbasa area north of Baquba city today afternoon . . .’

Reuters adds, “KIRKUK – Gunmen killed a man in a drive-by shooting on Saturday outside his house in central Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.”

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