Informed Comment

My column for Salon.com on “Osama bin Laden’s “Second Life”: In virtual worlds, does it take two terrorists to tango? And how much should we worry about those secret stockpiles of cartoon weapons?” Is now available.

By the way, Save the Internet.

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Frances Trix of Indiana University and a long-time researcher in Kosovo gives the historical and cultural context of the Balkan crisis at our collective Global Affairs blog.

Kosovo independence from Serbia continues to provoke Serbian protests, including a rally of 6,000 in Vienna on Sunday that turned violent when 600 hooligans tried to move toward the US embassy, found that Austrian police had sealed it off, and then vented their rage on local shops and restaurants.

Isn’t that actually a form of terrorism?

Angry protesters had attacked the US embassy in Belgrade on Thursday, setting fires and forcing an evacuation. US ambassador to Serbia Cameron Munter demanded better security for embassies in Belgrade on Sunday, saying, “I’m very angry at what happened . . . It had better not happen again.”

For anyone who can’t quite get the nuance here, I think Munter is saying that the Serbian government will be held accountable for any further attacks on the United States embassy in Belgrade. And, indeed, Sunday’s events raise the question of why Austria can protect its US embassy but Serbia can’t protect its.

Kosovo’s emergence as a country in its own right raises the question of why Palestine should not also just declare its own independence.

On another crisis, don’t miss Farideh Farhi’s essay on the implications of the latest International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran.

At the Napoleon’s Egypt blog, a new letter from Gen. Berthier about the siege of Acre in Palestine.

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Turkish military land and air operations inside northern Iraq left 35 PKK guerrillas dead on Saturday, and two Turkish soldiers.

The PKK warned that it would blow up people in Turkish cities if the Turkish army did not withdraw. This threat would be more impressive if they hadn’t already been blowing up people in Turkish cities.

Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari, himself an Iraqi Kurd, said of the operation, “if it goes on, I think it could destabilise the region, because really one mistake could lead to further escalation.”

As if to prove Zebari’s point, the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, warned the Turks of large-scale resistance if they advanced toward populated areas.

Aljazeera English has video:

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the governor of Basra, Muhammad Misbah al-Wa’ili, has charged the Iranian deputy consul in that city of plotting his, al-Wa’ili’s, assassination. He demanded that the central government look into the charges. He said that the Iranian consulate gave a large sum of money to one of his body guards to discover his exact itinerary.

Al-Wa’ili is from the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), and is at loggerheads with a majority of members of his own provincial council, including members of the Basra Islamic List and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. He claims he has been the target of numerous assassination attempts and hints that Iran was behind them.

The Islamic Virtue Party is a splinter of the Sadr Movement of Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr (d. 1999), which does not recognized Muqtada al-Sadr. The Islamic Virtue Party is a Muslim fundamentalist party but is Iraqi nativist, i.e. it does not like Iranian infulence in Iraq.

Among Fadhila’s major rivals is the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq (ISCI), with its own paramilitary, the Badr Corps. So al-Wa’ili’s charges have something to do with his rivalry with ISCI.

The instability in Basra is so bad that a planned drawdown of British troops from 4700 to 2500 by March seems likely to be postponed. The Guardian Observer writes,

‘In an unusually frank analysis, Colonel Richard Iron, military mentor to the Iraqi commander General Mohan al-Furayji, said ‘There’s an uneasy peace between the Iraqi Security Forces [ISF] on the one hand and the militias on the other. There is a sense in the ISF that confrontation is inevitable. They are training and preparing for the battle ahead. General Mohan says that the US won the battle for Baghdad, the US is going win the battle for Mosul, but Iraqis will have to win the battle for Basra.’ ‘

Gen. Mohan wants to have the back-up of British helicopter gunships and armor when the big anti-militia campaign is launched.

The article also says that “there is no one in charge” in Basra and that the militias actually exclude the army from some parts of the city!

‘ Asked who runs the city now, Iron, who has been in Basra since December, said: ‘There’s no one in charge. The unwritten rules of the game are there are areas where the army can and can’t go and areas where JAM [Jaysh al-Mahdi or the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr] can and can’t take weapons.’ ‘

The problem for Iraq is that whereas Baghdad or even Mosul can be subjected to a vigorous military campaign without that causing the country to collapse, I am not sanguine that Basra can survive a frontal assault and still remain Iraq’s import-export entrepot. And, if Basra is depopulated or sent into a spiral of violence similar to the Sunni Arab areas of the north, it will not hold Iraq harmless.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Saturday:

‘Baghdad

- Around 7 a.m. mortar shells slammed into the Green Zone. A U.S. State Department spokesman in Baghdad confirmed the attack and said there were no deaths, injuries or significant damage due to the attack.

- Gunmen shot Shihab Al Timimi, the Iraqi journalists syndicate chief. He was injured in an area close to the syndicate’s headquarters in Al Waziriyah.

- Around 2 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted civilians in Beirut square, killing one civilian and injuring two others.

- Iraqi police found three bodies, one in Shaab, one in Al Qanat area and one in Saidiyah.

Al Anbar

- Around 11 a.m. three suicide bombers wearing vest bombs targeted Ibraheem Teeri, a tribal sheikh, in Al Shiha town north of Fallujah, killing Teeri and two policemen. . . [The attack was on a training center for Awakening Council members.]

Salahuddin

- Around 9 a.m. a roadside bomb exploded in front of Nouri Khalil’s house, a member of Beiji city local council. It killed Khalil’s wife and son.

- Around 2 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted Iraqi police vehicle on a highway south of Samarra, killing two police officers and injuring three others.

- Iraqi police today on the Tigris River near Samarra chased a suicide bomber in a boat. The bomber was wearing a vest bomb and he detonated himself before the police could arrest him.’

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The Associated Press

June 12, 1987, Friday, PM cycle

Religious Lobbyist Sees ”Christian-Bashing” In GOP

A religious lobbyist says some Republicans, including Vice President George Bush, are engaging in “Christian-bashing” and may drive the religious right to form its own party.

Robert Grant, chairman of Christian Voice, criticized Bush for telling a joke about evangelist Oral Roberts. . .

Christian Voice is a lobbying group that issues a “Biblical Scorecard” on what it calls “the family-moral-freedom issues.” They include not only abortion and school prayer, but also support for increased defense spending, “Star Wars,” and aid to anti-communist insurgents in Nicaragua, Afghanistan, Angola and elsewhere. . .

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I review the news below and don’t somehow conclude that the US occupation of Iraq is a success story. I know we are paying a lot for our presence in Iraq. I can’t figure out what the average American is receiving for the money. It isn’t increased security, since Iraq is a training ground for terrorists who will likely hit the US or US interests in future. It isn’t extra petroleum, at least not for us ordinary folks. Maybe the US oil majors will do well out of it. But even they say they can’t do business in Iraq without oil legislations. And petroleum prices held above $98 a barrel on Friday. The Turkish invasion of Iraq was cited as one reason for the price increase. Instead of asking “are things hopeful in Iraq?” or “is there progress in Iraq?”, the American media and public should be asking, “What are we getting out of all this?” That is the question the US Right fears most of all, which is why they ask the ‘progress’ question all the time. They only have two settings, “slow progress” and “progress.” A burned out hulk of a city like Falluja? A sign of “slow progress.”

Turkey, the NATO ally of the US, invaded Iraqi Kurdistan with between 3,000 and 10,000 troops and is facing heavy opposition from Kurdistan Peshmerga forces and from the Kurdish Workers Party paramilitaries. The Turkish military said in a statement 24 PKK rebels and five soldiers were killed in clashes in Iraq. It also said at least 20 rebels were killed in separate aerial attacks.’

The PKK has killed scores of Turkish soldiers in the past six months, and the Turks consider them a terrorist organization.

Muqtada al-Sadr extended his freeze on militia activities of the Mahdi Army through August.

Since the US is finishing off his hard line Sunni Arab enemies for him, and is restoring discipline to the Sadr Movement by arresting rogue elements not loyal to Muqtada, it is hard to see what the down side is for him in accepting to renew the Mahdi Army freeze.

A rocket barrage struck the Green Zone where the US embassy and other American offices are located.

As Solomon Moore of the NYT explains, Basra is a security mess rife with Shiite militias, assassinations, murders, kidnappings for ransom and gasoline smuggling on a vast scale.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Friday:

‘BAGHDAD – A car bomb blew up in Baghdad’s central Karrada district, killing one person and wounding four.

NEAR BAQUBA – Three mortars landed in a village of Buhriz, 60 km (36 miles) north of Baghdad, killing one child and wounding eight people. . .

NEAR FALLUJA – A suicide bomber killed at least six policemen and wounded nine others when he detonated a vest packed with explosives outside a mosque near Falluja in western Anbar province, police said.

GARMA – A suicide bomber on foot attacked an Iraqi security checkpoint, killing two people and wounding three in Garma, near Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

TIKRIT – A suicide car bomber killed three policemen and wounded eight others at a police station in Tikrit, 175 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

ISKANDARIYA – Two bodies with gunshot wounds and signs of torture were found in Iskandariya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

ANBAR PROVINCE – One U.S. Marine was killed in a battle with gunmen in Anbar province on Thursday, the U.S. military said.

NEAR FALLUJA – A roadside bomb killed Brigadier-General Abdul Jabbar al-Juboury, head of the Iraqi army’s Falluja Brigade, and his driver on Thursday south of Falluja, police said.

BAGHDAD – A bomb killed at least one person and wounded four others in Karrada district, central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD – Five bodies were found in different districts across Baghdad on Thursday, police said.

NEAR FALLUJA – A parked car bomb killed one man and wounded two others on Thursday near a market in Falluja, police said.’

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Three things happened on Thursday that changed the world.

The victorious Pakistan People’s Party, now the largest in the Pakistani lower house of parliament, has reached a deal for a coalition with two other parties. One is the Muslim League-N, loyal to former PM Nawaz Sharif, which has a quarter of seats in the federal legislature. The other is the Awami National Party, a Pushtun (Pathan) secular nationalist party. The coalition is explicitly an alliance against Pervez Musharraf, the longtime military dictator of the country, who is backed by Bush and Cheney. It is hard to see how this coalition will cohabit with Musharraf, now the civilian president.

Meanwhile the White House and the State Department appear to be confusing the Pakistani public by taking opposite stances on what needs to be done.

Nawaz Sharif, a junior partner in the emergent coalition, again called Thursday for Pervez Musharraf to step down. I think it will be hard for Sharif to let go of that aspiration. The danger is that it may bring the army in.

Second, angry Serbs attacked the US embassy in Belgrade.

Note that Neoconservative pundits kept telling us that there was something deeply wrong with Muslims for protesting when they were kicked or expelled, saying that look, the Serbs have been harmed by US policies but they don’t go around attacking US embassies. I guess they’ll have to find a new argument.

And given that the Serbs are Eastern Orthodox Christians, will the Republican Party and Fox Cable News now start fulminating against “Christofascism?”

Third, Clinton “ only managed only a draw” in the debate with Obama She needed to fluster him into saying something that he should not. She failed. He looked strong, confident and presidential. It seems unlikely now that she can overcome his lead in pledged delegates.

It is a whole new world, but there are great dangers lurking out there–for the Balkans, for South Asia. And, the stability of Iraq is extremely shaky (see below).

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While US troops keep a tenuous grip on Baghdad in the center, Iraq’s two extremities– Kurdistan in the north and Basra in the deep south– are coming apart at the seams. Neither area has many US troops to fall back on.

In a tense confrontation, Iraqi Kurdish troops nearly surrounded Turkish troops who had made an incursion into northern Iraq on Thursday. McClatchy reveals:

‘ Iraqi Kurdish troops on Thursday encircled Turkish soldiers in northern Iraq and threatened to open fire in the most serious standoff between the two nation’s forces since Turkey threatened late last year to go after guerrillas from the Kurdistan Workers Party sheltering in Iraq. The standoff began when Turkish troops in tanks and armored vehicles left one of five bases they’ve had in Iraq since 1997 and moved to control two main roads in Dohuk province, Iraqi officials said. ‘

Ultimately, the Turkish troops beat a retreat back to their base. But this is the stuff of which hot wars are made, folks. Baghdad politicians said they wanted to do something to forestall such an eventuality. What they would have to do is to send Arab troops north to guard the border with Turkey with orders to shoot on sight PKK guerrillas trying to infiltrate into Turkey. The Kurdish peshmerga are too sympathetic to the PKK to do it. But Turkey has a right to expect Iraq to prevent it from being attacked from Iraqi soil.

Four British troops were wounded, one seriously, by two roadside bombs that detonated as they passed through the outskirts of Basra to some other destination. Basra, always fragile, slid into turmoil on Thursday.

Heavy fighting broke out Wednesday evening into Thursday morning in Basra between offshoots of Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and the Iraqi army. Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the fighting took place all over the city. It was provoked by the arrest of Mahdi Army cadres in the Safwan border area (70 mi. south of Basra). Gunfire was heard in Basra in the Hayaniya, Qiblah, Tusiya and Jumhuriya districts. Basra police are planning to implement a new security plan to forestall such clashes and to end the almost-daily rocket attacks on Basra airport by militiamen.

The Iraqi army is being ordered to man checkpoints at key intersections in Basra, to reassure the investment companies that are expected to troop into the southern port city soon, to kickstart a wave of construction and development that was announced at a recent convention of the Basra Development Board.

The head of the Sadr Office in Basra, Harith al-`Adhari, denied that his organization hand anything to do with the attackers, describing them as rogue independents.

In Diwaniya to the north, Sadrist leader Abu Zainab al-Kar`awi told al-Hayat by telephone that gunmen driving police cars had set fire on Thursday to 4 houses belonging to Sadrists. He accused the popular committees affiliated with the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of responsibility for the arson, saying that ISCI wanted to exclude the Sadrists from the political process. He said several Sadrists had moved away from Diwaniya to Baghdad for fear of arbitrary arrest.

AFP argues that Sadr has benefited from his freeze on Mahdi Army activities for the past 6 months.

The LAT discusses how Iraq’s hundreds of thousands of war widows struggle for survival. You kind of wish that the television news would notice this kind of story . . .

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Thursday:

‘. . . Diyala

15 bodies were found in an area 15 km to the north of Baquba at 05:30 pm; ten were Iraqi Army, said Baghdad and Diyala Police. They were hand cuffed, blindfolded and shot to death. They were laid side by side, 6 inches apart and a thin cover of dirt was thrown over them. They have been dead for ten days.

An Iraqi police patrol found six male bodies and three female bodies buried in al-Ouhaimar Field in the Baqubah area . . .

Baghdad

Three civilians were wounded when a roadside bomb went off at 10 a.m. in the intersection near al-Shaab Stadium, Zayuna, east Baghdad.

Around noon Thursday, a mortar shell fell in Besateen neighbourhood, Shaab, north Baghdad injuring two civilians.

Around 2 p.m. Thursday afternoon, gunmen opened fire upon a car belonging to the Crimes Department killing First Lieutenant Ahmed Mohammed and injuring Lieutenant Colonel Hazim and one policeman near the Institute of Law in Waziriyah, north Baghdad.

At 2 p.m. Thursday, gunmen opened fire upon a pickup truck in al-Buhaira Square at the entrance of Sadr City, killing its driver, an employee at the Ministry of Transport.

Five bodies were found in Baghdad by Iraqi Police today. 1 in Palestine St, 2 in Waziriyah, 1 in Tobchi and 1 in Amil.

Anbar

Commander of Fallujah Brigade, the Seventh Division, Brigadier General Ahmed al-Juburi was killed when a roadside bomb targeted his motorcade. His driver was also killed and one security personnel seriously injured.

One civilian killed and another injured in car bomb explosion at an open air market, 37 km to the south of Fallujah.

Mosul

Five policemen were injured in a roadside bomb explosion that targeted a police patrol in Faisaliyah neighbourhood, central Mosul.’

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