7 US Soldiers Killed;
Public Blames Iraq War for Economic Woes
5 US soldiers were killed by roadside bombs on Friday, 4 northwest of Baghdad and one in Kirkuk Province. Note that both these regions are Sunni Arab, and that it makes no sense that Shiite Iran gave explosively formed projectiles to Sunni Arab guerrillas in these areas, since they could also be deployed against Shiite troops and paramilitaries that Iran supports.
It was announced on Friday that on Tuesday, Iraqi guerrillas killed two US soldiers with an improvised bomb in Diyala Province. A third soldier was wounded.
Over two-thirds of Americans think that getting out of Iraq will help the US economy a great deal (48%) or at least somewhat (20%).
Myself, I think that is the death knell of the Iraq War and spells very bad news for John McCain. McCain's argument is that if Iraq can be pacified, such that troops are not being killed, then there is no intrinsic objection to the US keeping bases there. But first of all, his premise is not evident, and the news of the troop deaths this week argues against complacency on that score. Besides, the public is noting an objection even in the case of no troop deaths, which is the extra expense.
If the war really is going to cost $2 trillion, they can think of other ways they'd like to spend that money, including on unemployment checks for themselves since they are afraid they are about to be fired because of the recession. Hearteningly, even after decades of Republican propaganda about the miraculous properties of "tax cuts" (mainly on their own rich selves), more Americans still think a good way to get out of the recession is for the government to spend more money on health care, education and housing than think it can all be fixed with a tax cut.
Only 28 percent think that anything Bush does is going to help them avoid economic bad times.
Since McCain is trying out for the role of Son of Bush, that is also bad news for him.
Angelina Jolie in Baghdad as a UN special envoy is lobbying for something to be done for the over 2 million internally displaced persons in Iraq. If you count the externally displaced in Syria and Jordan, it is more like 4 million.
It is the US Congress that should be funding such aid on a large scale, since it voted to let Bush invade the country in the first place. Can't Moveon.org or someone take this campaign up? I can't imagine the government of Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki doing anything effective about it.
Manuel Miranda has lambasted the US embassy in Baghdad for being mired in red tape and being unable to implement Bush's policies. I would find this charge more plausible if there were any evidence that Bush has any policies other than muddling through. I'd love to know the backstory here, since some of what Miranda says sounds plausible, but given how he starts out I am very suspicious of his motives. Has he seen the writing on the wall for America in Iraq and is he setting up the State Department to take the fall rather than the Republican Party?
' Miranda listed several examples of what he regards as failures, ranging from "a near complete lack" of coordination with other agencies and the Iraqi government, withholding information, blaming Iraqis for all shortcomings, providing bad advice on legislative matters and wasting millions in taxpayers' money. Among them was the repeated pushing of Iraqis to accept a flawed law governing the distribution of oil revenue, which he said would have been rejected as untenable by "any experienced international lawyer." '
For more on Miranda as a serial GOP leaker, see Veracifier.
Russia seems set to write off all but about $1 billion of Iraq's $13 bn. debt to Moscow. This step is a loss leader, and in return Russian oil firms are going to do very well in new bids let over the next few years. The Russians had commitments from Saddam to develop the West Qurna fields, and that is still a possibility. After all, there is a lot more than $12 bn. to be made in the Iraq hydrocarbon fields. China forgave $8 bn. in loans last summer and already the Iraqis are saying that it would make sense for China to develop the al-Ahdab fields.
Talks with Western oil majors, including Exxon-Mobil and Chevron on technical service agreements are set to resume in March. Hat tip to the invaluable Iraq Oil Report.
Sunni Arab members of pro-American Awakening Councils in Diyala Province have gone on strike to protest the actions of the Shiite police chief. They say he is running anti-Sunni death squads and they can't work with him. Diyala is 60% Sunni Arab, but in the January 2005 provincial elections, the Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq won because the Sunnis boycotted the polls. This incident is an example of why provincial elections desperately need to be held if a chance for social peace is to be realized.
McClatchy reports political violence for Friday:
'
Bahgdad
Head of Sahwa in 14th of Ramadhan neighbourhood, Mshahda, 15 km to the north of Baghdad City was assassinated by gunmen at around 05:00 pm last night. 2 of his security detail were injured.
A mortar shell hit an orchard in Doura at 04:00 pm. No casualties were reported.
3 bodies were found in Baghdad by Iraqi Police today. 1 in Slaikh, 1 in Palestine St and 1 in Mansour.
Diyala
Clashes between Concerned Local Citizens groups, specifically 1920 Revolution Brigades and Iraqi Police in Tahrir neighbourhood, central Baquba and the town of Buhruz to the south of Baquba, no casualties were reported. The security forces have, however, imposed a curfew in both Baquba and Buhruz until further notice.
Anbar
Clashes between Anbar Police and gunmen in Andulus neighbourhood, east Fellujah resulted in the death of 1 gunman and the arrest of another and the injury of 1 policeman.
Basra
Gunmen kidnapped 4 civilians from al-Sakhra Church, Manawi Basha neighbourhood, central Basra, yesterday evening, said eye witnesses. The 4 Christians are activists in missionary work with the Norwegian Churches Organization who work out of al-Sakhra church, confirms Churches in Southern Iraq official. Basra Police deny any knowledge of the incident.'
Reuters adds:
' BAQUBA - Gunmen in police uniform stormed a house and killed five people including a woman and then blew up the house on Thursday in central Baquba, police said.
NEAR BAQUBA - Police found a grave containing eight bodies including three females just north of Baquba, police said.
BASRA - The body of the imam of a Sunni mosque was found on Thursday in a morgue in central Basra, 550 km (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad, the Muslim Scholars Association said in a statement.
HAWIJA - A bomb in a parked car wounded two policemen in Hawija, 70 km (45 miles) southwest of Kirkuk, police said.
MOSUL - Gunmen killed a university student in a bus terminal in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, on Thursday, police said.
BAGHDAD - U.S. forces arrested "a special groups leader" -- part of a group that has splintered from Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army militia -- and three others just south of Baghdad on Thursday, the U.S. military said. '
Check out Barnett Rubin's important recent blog entries on Afghanistan and the narcotics problem.
At the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, newly posted letters from Gen. Berthier on the invasion of Syria and the siege of Acre.
Check out recent essays at Tomdispatch.com, always worth reading.
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 2/09/2008 06:30:00 AM
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20 Comments:
The Iranian black market certainly could provide all kinds of weapons to all kinds of people. But the so-called EFPs really aren't that difficult to make in the first place and there have been a number of AQ instructional videos on the subject. The old tactic was just to build bigger bombs in response to better armor. The necessities of cost vs. effectiveness are what cause the wider use of EFPs, NOT the Iranians suddenly flooding the market.
Wow. Wouldn't that be an amazing developement if the US got shut out of Iraq oil deals, because of it's all too rapacious desire for them.
Of course, if the violence were to fall to the point where we were in fact suffering no casualties, the financial costs would also fall considerably, but that won't happen for at least 60 years. Ask the Israelis. (Early in the war, an Iranian friend said to me incredulously, "You can't conquer Arabs.)
But the economic costs are the main reason why to the extent casualties have fallen, it has had no impact on public opinion. Most Americans are only vaguely aware of how many are dying on a weekly basis, but they are very aware that it's costing an enormous amount of money week after week, even while they see enormous unmet needs here. And they see no benefits coming from these outlays. We don't all work for Exxon, at least not directly.
Re. McCain:he'll be elected president after the neocons pull a Golf of Tomkin like trick and the Middle East goes in flames and McCain campaigns with "Who do you need as COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF to save the USA from those barbarian?
Long live the REAL resistance in Iraq to get rid of occupation. those who are paid Dollars and saudi Rials to tarnish the reputation of the resistance are criminals , Not really resistance. they know who they are , those who target Markets and civilan places . the Harkis did the same thing in Algeria (recruited by the french army) to harm the resistance .
One of the U.S. soldiers killed was a cousin of mine. My family, which voted en masse for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, is finally beginning to think it's a bad idea to have scoundrels and idiots in charge of the country. I wish they had realized this sooner.
"If the war really is going to cost $2 trillion, they can think of other ways they'd like to spend that money, including on unemployment checks for themselves since they are afraid they are about to be fired because of the recession. Hearteningly, even after decades of Republican propaganda about the miraculous properties of "tax cuts" (mainly on their own rich selves), more Americans still think a good way to get out of the recession is for the government to spend more money on health care, education and housing than think it can all be fixed with a tax cut.
Only 28 percent think that anything Bush does is going to help them avoid economic bad times."
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It would seem, despite the media bandwagon for tax cuts, the one item that (apparently employed) Americans didn't think of is the item most likely to mitigate recession and the only major item eliminated from the stimulus package:
"According to estimates several years ago by Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com, the measures that produced the biggest "bang for the buck" were increases in unemployment benefits, which produced about $1.73 in additional demand for every dollar spent. Tax rebates to all citizens generated about $1.19 for every dollar spent, while reductions in tax rates produced only 59 cents per dollar. (Edmund L. Andrews, "Fed Chief's Reassurance Fails to Halt Stock Plunge," New York Times, 18 January 2008)" [source: IHT]
In my estimation, all this so called 'stimulus" will accomplish is it will end up in the American consumer’s pockets for a few minutes, and then be spent on consumer products (salad shooters and plasma TVs as James Kunstler suggests) mostly manufactured offshore by American companies with their operations and most of their profits moved offshore, or American consumers will spend their rebate servicing debt created by previously purchasing products from the selfsame companies.
Our Senators and Congresspeople take their campaign money from those companies and industry interests too!
For example, which senators and congressmen had taken trips to the sweatshops in the Marianas to check their investments a few years back.
They were friends of Jack Abramoff (google search marianas+sweatshop) if I remember correctly.
The looting of the treasury WILL continue as planned, with or without a million-dollar-a-minute war.
Leigh
'With all the talk about how to stimulate it, you'd think that the economy is a giant clitoris.' --Barbara Ehrenreich
Is John McCain a member of the Skull and Bones, like Bush (41 and 43) and Rice, and so many others?
His advisors must have told him that a severe recession is about to hit the citizens hard. Asking for tax cuts and yet more military spending is criminal. But the Skull and Bones see the citizens as mere cogs in the Executive machinery which is on a higher plane than trivial matters like the wellbeing of the citizens.
Dr. Cole,
John Murtha gave a speech at CSIS shown on C-Span.
During the question period in the end.
a state department official just back from Iraq
gave the following statistics.
- JAG reports 78% of their case work in Divorce.
- Mental health professional see 72 US personnel every day.
Thank you for the informaiton on the Iraq Oil status. I contend nothing of consequence is going to happen untill the Oil rights and revenues get resolved.
More over we are seeing how Europe, China and Russia are becomming involved. I just do not see how US countries can retain a footing in this while beeing the occupier.
"It is the US Congress that should be funding such aid on a large scale, since it voted to let Bush invade the country in the first place. Can't Moveon.org or someone take this campaign up? I can't imagine the government of Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki doing anything effective about it"(re the internally displaced persons situation)
I too can't imagine al-Maliki's government doing anything about the situation. But why would we expect them to? Their governance experience and expertise is near zero, they are faced with faced with security problems that make 9/11 look like a traffic accident, they inherited suppressed ethnic hatred, or rivalry, on a titanic scale, they have no massive wealth to apply to the problem, and they have to cope with the overarching US military's self serving presence.
On the other hand our administration and congress, steeped in over two hundred years of governance, schooled in the brilliant principles of the Founding Fathers, blessed by the humanity of Judea-Christian philosophy, and equipped with enormous borrowing power, can't do a damn thing about it either.
I think that before bashing al-Maliki and his government, we should consider how inept our own government is at solving serious problems and doing the right things. Would Iraq be better off if the Katrina wizards had been in control? Would our "cut taxes and spend freely" philosophy help guide the Iraqi economy? Would our embrace of military violence encourage peace and forgiveness? Would our President's embrace of water boarding lead to more humane treatment of prisoners?
And would our deliberate avoidance of Iraq's horrific displaced persons situation convince the Iraqi people and government that we really care about what we did to their county?
Note that it makes no sense that Iran gave EFPs to Sunni Arabs...except of course because they hate our freedom so much that they're not ration as they seek to recreate the Caliphate, so the Sunnis and Shia are willing to put aside their differences in order to subjugate us dhimmi infidels.
See how easy it is to circumvent any sort of logic?
and they say we making progress, the surge is not working and the Sunni Awakening Councils are on strike LOL, and still being paid by US
Is Iraqi war the next Internet?
Apparently, the official Republican theory is that both Bush tax cuts and the war in Iraq are the best things that could ever happen to the US, Iraq and the world. All these are considered to be essential parts of Bush's legacy.
As usual with the GOP, their rhetorics is nothing like empirical conclusion, but more of ideological points which need to be promoted by whatever means necessary.
Now McCain, who completely accepts both tax cuts and the war, is looking for the ways to adopt them in his campaign. His recent idea that Americans are wary of the US losses, not the war as such appears to be the part of this process.
From the other side, in the end of 2007, the neocons have achieved a major strategic victory over their old rival, the NYT, and got Bill Kristol installed as NYT columnist. As a result, the hard-core neocons acquire long-coveted NYT brand, but this is not all. In addition, regular NYT authors must find themselves under additional ideological pressure.
So, here it goes, in Prof.Krugman's blog we find statements like did not really affect the oil prices and can even be considered as an economic stimulus, not an inhibitor!
Well, sure, if we make it a rule to ignore any connections between macroeconomic and military situation, then we find no particular connection between oil prices and ME conflict. Otherwise, if there is any difference between peace and war time economy, then, to keep oil prices under control, one needs more or less stable ME.
Same way, if the Iraqi war is taken as economic stimulus as WW2 was for American economy, we can only wait until military spending will be declared to be the next equivalent of Internet boom. In fact, with high tech and realty bubbles gone, it is hard to find any other sector to lead the long-term economic recovery.
The cost of war:
"The true cost is measured by what has been foregone..."
At Tom Dispatch, Chalmers Johnson wrote about military Keynesianism.
"... by military Keynesianism, I mean the mistaken belief that public policies focused on frequent wars, huge expenditures on weapons and munitions, and large standing armies can indefinitely sustain a wealthy capitalist economy. The opposite is actually true.
...[T]his sum of staggering size (try to visualize a billion of something) does not express the cost of the military establishment to the nation as a whole. The true cost is measured by what has been foregone, by the accumulated deterioration in many facets of life by the inability to alleviate human wretchedness of long duration."
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174884
It makes you wonder how much the McCain's comment will influence Iraqis. If you were an Iraqi and a likely presidential candidate is talking about occupying your country for next 100 years... wouldn't you want to make sure he wont succeed?
I am sure they will try to spin it on Iran and Syria. But in reality it show how much the Senator is out of touch with reality.
It is sad that in US politics there are no accountability for such bellicose comments
Wouldn't that be an amazing developement if the US got shut out of Iraq oil deals, because of it's all too rapacious desire for them
Over two-thirds of Americans think that getting out of Iraq will help the US economy a great deal (48%) or at least somewhat (20%).
The sentiments of Republican Party extremism do not get ventilated around here very often, so I'll try to toss in their two cents' worth for them as best an outsider can about one narrow point.
If they have any smarts at all, they ought to be wondering how many of those innocent people that AP-Ipsos got at ever dreamed of complaining that particular complaint before it was shoved in their path ready-made. "Push polling" is the name of this gimmick, is it not?
Being a Tammany Hall or Cook County donkey, I'd never dream of objecting to it for myself, and complaints from the Party of Lee Atwater are not above suspicion either. Still, I've been told that some of them have been trying to clean up their act lately, having as good as nominated an old-fashioned Mugwump, begorrah! Should Honest John McCain object that pollsters should not go around putting ideas into their patients' heads that were not there before, and even profess to see a violation of Sacred Principle in it, perhaps he might be listened to respectfully? (No need to agree, but just thank the distinguished statesperson politely for taking an interest, and so on.)
Meanwhile, back in the gutter, I assume we donkeys need not delude ourselves that it is actually the case that Uncle Sam can't afford to pay the Big Party's foreign bills. It's expedient to pretend so, no doubt, but naturally if we happened to like their invasions and occupations, we'd consider them a bargain.
Happy days.
Great Help
Thank you.
Thank you! resim
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