Al-Maliki Refuses to Disband Councils;
Talabani Invokes Constitutional Court;
Basra Province Protests Iraqi Army
The Kurdish president of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, is more or less threatening to sue the Shiite prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki. Al-Maliki has been creating Arab tribal councils loyal to himself, including in some areas of mixed Arab and Kurdish populations. Talabani maintains that these "support councils" have a paramilitary dimension and so are essentially militias, and so illegal. Al-Maliki has formally refused to dissolve them, however. He likens them to the "Awakening Councils" created by the US military among Sunni Arabs. And he denies that he has armed the support councils. (He is being disingenuous, since Arab tribesmen generally have guns.) Talabani is afraid that al-Maliki will use these councils to roll back the Kurdish peshmerga or paramilitary, which has extended its presence 200 km. into Iraq proper all around Kurdistan.
Talabani has threatened to take the matter to the constitutional court.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi city council is complaining about al-Maliki's army units in the southern port city. A couple of days ago, a special forces unit of the Iraqi Army tried to come into the governor's mansion and came into conflict with the provincial guardsmen on site. The city council is asking al-Maliki for a coordination between the Iraqi army on the one hand and local security forces on the other, so as to keep peace in the city. They are also complaining that the army is arrogating to itself perquisites (i.e. is acting in a corrupt manner).
The Basra provincial council is dominated by the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), which is politically at odds with al-Maliki's Islamic Mission Party (al-Da'wa).
AFP says that ethnic conflict between Kurds and Sunni Arabs in Mosul is not only being played out with violence in the northern city of 1.7 million, but also at the ballot box. Sunni Arabs are mobilizing to dominate Ninevah Province, of which Mosul is the capital, in the provincial elections of Jan. 31, 2009.
Despite high-profile bombings in the past few days, the US military says that the number of attacks per day in Iraq in November was less than at any time since 2003. My recollection is that in November, 2003, it was an average of 17 attacks a day and the Sunni Arab guerrilla war was in full swing. You're still getting 300-400 civilians killed a month, which is about 4,000 a year. It is not the apocalypse it was in 2006, but this level of violence is not reassuring to me, at least.
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/04/2008 01:11:00 AM
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The Americans are, and have always been, complicit in the Kurdish plans to annex large parts of Ninevah as a reward for their collaboration.
During the invasion,the Iraqi Northern Corps formally surrendered on 5 April 2003, unlike the rest of the Iraq, to avoid bloodshed. Kirkuk and Mosul remained peaceful despite the complete absence of security forces to uphold the law.
On April 11, few hundred Marines colluded with the Peshmerga to invade the cities, and looting and violence erupted. The Peshmerga faced fierce resistance in Mosul and eventually withdrew. In Kirkuk they had more support from US forces and managed to hang on.
Peace returned to Mosul which became the safest area in the whole of Iraq. Kurdistan was subjected to regular Islamists attack then.
Petraeus, and the 101 airborne division invaded the city in the summer of 2003, and with them the start of daily violence and Kurdish control. The CPA cannot be blamed for the woes in the north of Iraq because Petraeus took control of the non-military aspects there too. Just like now, he focused on cosmetic projects to pretend that the US cared. He announced the completion of 1,200 US-funded projects which stunned the locals who were suffering more than even under the sanctions. It turned out that all 1,200 projects cost $1.9 millions in total, paid for from the Iraqi cash the US looted from Iraq's banks (Bush at the time refused Bremer's request for any construction funds, and wanted to charge Iraq $50B, the estimated cost of the invasion.)
Kurdish officials and contractors became the new Ba'thists in terms of monopoly on power and funds. Petraeus put his HQ in Mosul Airport, one of only three international airports, and blocked all civilian transport to allow Erbil's new airport nearby to flourish. The airport isonly used by officials and for the Haj even now.
Peshmergas, and members of Barzani's party were given Iraqi Army and police uniforms to the exlusion of the locals. The police collapsed in November 2004 when attacked by a small group of Sunni militants from Falluja, which was being destroyed by the US at the time, and were eventually replaced by locals.But the "Iraqi" Army largely remains Peshmerga in disguise.
The Kurdish warlords consider all Kurds as their "property". This is not so, and the local elections, if conducted preperly, will give the Kurdish warlords less than 10% of the seats. The Kurds have presented one list, as opposed to the many lists by the rest of the Mosul parties,but this is of no consequence, is it?
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/images/stories/Press_briefings/2008/december/081203_transcript.pdf
Less attacks in November, 2008, than any month since before the war began in March, 2003. {Total attacks against Iraqi civilians+ GoI+ISF+MNF} Not just the lowest number of attacks since 2003, but the lowest number of attacks since at least February, 2003.
There has been a sharp drop in attacks against the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police, which is positive in many ways. The IA and IP are now able to go offline for retraining and upgrading. The end result will be a much better trained, lead and equipped ISF. {Notice that the 8th Bde, 2nd IAD, from Ninevah, is now being upgraded . . . probably to air borne air assault.}
On another note, you should discuss the drop in oil prices below $46. Iraq now has a projected budget deficit. The MoF, Ministry of Finance, is considering deep additional spending cuts. Perhaps discuss your ideas for what types of social spending and civilian reconstruction capital expenditure the GoI should cut most deeply.
It is unfortunate that Iraq has to sharply cut government spending just as Iraq's economy is being buffeted by the largest global financial crisis since 1931.
The failure of the GoI to begin to increase oil production between 2004 and the present, when oil prices where high, seems especially foolish now. If Iraq had increased oil production earlier, it wouldn't need to cut civilian reconstruction CAPEX and social spending so much now.
At this stage, it will be tough for Iraq to convince global oil companies to invest in Iraqi oil production on terms that are favorable to the Iraqi government. Global energy companies are cutting back exploration, feasibility testing, and oil production CAPEX across the board.
Anon, why don't you like Kurds?
The 2nd IAD is 43% Kurdish. It is not Peshmerga in disguise. That is Baathist propaganda. Is MG Abdullah Peshmerga?
The 2nd IAD is a high quality division that defeated its enemies in Ninevah. That is the real reason for the propaganda offensive against it.
Unfortunately, even the commander of the 3rd Bde, 1st Iraqi Army division, Iraqi Intervention Force, Quick Reaction Force corps, seems to have fallen for the Peshmerga propaganda:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/11/on_walk_across_mosul.php
Overall, the security situation in Mosul is the best since Falluja II, 2004. This said, Mosul remains the most violent city in Iraq. Attacks against the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police happen almost every day.
Re Kurdistan, Maliki, Barzani, Hakim, Petraeus, Odierno and the whole mess:
Listen to what they say, but believe what they do. Difficult, since the US press corps has largely withdrawn. US editors never did get the geopolitics or tactical picture, North or South. MNFI has re-written the book on infowar ops against our own citizens, while nodding and pointing to COIN theory as the cool thing for armchair historians to blog on.
As I recall the events of 2003, a Kurd column was decimated by US air attack, during its rush South to occupy the cities. Shit happens in war, but this column had US SF imbedded and in communication. Turkey was caught pushing their special forces into Kurdestan, disguised as returning refugees, and was soon threatening to invade, if Barzani's forces occupied Kirkuk.
The ghosts of Ataturk, TE Larwrence and Gertrude Bell still stalk this land, where Barzani's father fought for independence (under his rule), and the son's peshmurga fought Talibani's Kurds, both warlords outliving Saddam.
More recently, Iranian operators have been caught plying both Barzani and Hakim factions with weaponry and money, which would tend to support a thesis that a balkanized Iraq state would suite revolutionary Persia's regional ambitions.
This January's provincial election cycle might be expected to both clarify intent, and stir the mud, while we consumers of stories are oriented elsewhere. All so interesting, if true.
Anand, I very much like the Kurds. Some members of my family are Kurds, and I consider the rural Kurds the most decent on earth.
Barzani and Talbani have killed tens of thousands of Iraqis, nearly of them Kurds. In the civil war over territory and oil smuggling cut from no other than Saddam. Thousands more where killed when Talabani fought,on the Iraqi government side, Mullah Mustafa al-Barazani peshmerga.
The biggest victims of these criminals today are still the Kurds. The billions they get from Iraq is divvied between the war lords with most poor families needing two jobs to pay the rent to, often Peshmerga, landlords.
The police stations are often the local KDP or PUK party office, where people are held and brutally tortured.
I guess that you like them because they are traitors collaborating with the arch enemies of the Kurds and the Arabs.
You should direct your Ba'thist accusations to the warlords themselves, frequent Saddam guests and recepients of billions in the oil smuggling operation.
Saddam backed the KDP (Barzani) against the PUK (Talabani.) Khamenei backed the PUK.
KRG has some autocratic tendencies, but it is orders of magnitudes better than any Sunni Arab majority country. The KRG also spends its GoI transfers more efficiently than most corrupt Sunni Arab dictatorships. The Kurds can vote out the two families if they want to in elections.
Your allegation that the 2nd IAD are "peshmerga" is incorrect. It is 43% Kurd. Most Ninevah IP are also not Kurd.
4000 deaths a year is not actually that much worse than the US, on a per captita basis, where I gather some 30,000 a year die in gun violence... If they could get it down to 3000 a year, there'd be no difference, really.
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