India: No Troop Movements;
Zardari offers to Try Perps in Pakistan;
Lashkar had fought in Iraq
Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that India is not contemplating a military attack on Pakistan, but has sent Pakistan a list of 20 alleged terrorists wanted by India and now resident in Pakistan. They include former Mumbai underworld figure Dawood Ibrahim and the leader of the Jaish-e Muhammad [Army of Muhammad], Mawlana Masoud Azhar.
As Secretary of State Condi Rice arrived in India for consultations, the police chief of Mumbai, Hasan Ghafoor accused Pakistani ex-military officers of having trained the attackers for over a year. One report I heard on ABC news alleged that the Pakistani navy trained the attackers. The former report, of the involvement of ex-military, is far more likely to be true. It would have been fooling for the formal Pakistan military to launch and attack such as this, since it would have been far too easily traced right back to them.
A US military official confirmed that there have been no troop movements and no activity related to the two countries' nuclear arsenals.
Pakistani Prime Minister Raza Yousuf Gilani is requesting that the Indian government share its proof that the attackers were from Pakistan, pledging his government's full cooperation in that case.
Pakistani president Asaf Ali Zardari pledged on CNN's Larry King Live that if India presents good evidence against the 20 individuals it is seeking to extradite, then Pakistan would itself try and punish them.
Veteran terrorism correspondent Richard Sale reveals that some of the Lashkar-e Tayiba, a largely Punjabi group, had been fighting the US in Iraq in recent years. If any these attackers were Iraq War 'veterans,' that would help account for their sophistication and guerrilla training.
Pakistan is offering to set up a joint inquiry with India into the attacks.
One of the accused, Amir Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, leader of the Jama`at al-Da'wa (Missionary Group), said that it would be "unfortunate" if India bombed his compound at Muridke outside Lahore. The Jama`at is another name for the Lashkar-e Tayiba or 'Army of the Good' that is accused of being behind the Mumbai attacks. Indian intelligence officers have leaked to the Indian press that the attackers used a satellite phone to call a Lashkar number in Lahore.
In any case, India's leadership is showing remarkable cool and proceeding deliberately, which is a good sign. If any group of ten fanatics can go about provoking a war, we are going to have a lot of wars.
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/03/2008 12:50:00 AM
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10 Comments:
i am extremely relieved at my govt. not doing something rash and provoking another altercation with Pakistan. given the world's economic state and especially that of pakistan it's a great relief.
Hello Prof. Cole,
I read your aticle in IndianOutlook titled - Take the Highway and
1. Now I know where that spurt of Hindi in your e-mail came from (or atleast I have a clue) So how long were you in India for? would you happen to know Dr. John Cort from Denison University in Ohio? He was my advisor and you remind me a bit of him.
2. I agree with a majority of your article. I think we are extremely cautious about communal riots breaking out in Mumbai this time around. I also appreciate the Congress govt for its restraint and cool headedness. There's been a lot of anti-govt. rhetoric milling around and neither is the country on any kind of emergency nor has tehre been extremely explosive rhetoris towards the Pakistani govt. Congress rule might have allowed this attack to happen, but BJP rule will ensure the existence of many more attacks.
3. The DNA article seems highly unlikely. Terrorists came by boat. they were carrying so much ammunition. I doubt they were carryin chicken and alcohol into Nariman House. Chances are they would require drugs like aphetamines not booze to keep them up and fighting for 60 odd hours.
4. I don't doubt that Pk's dummy govt. and most of the military establishment was not involved but if the ISI was not involved, then why won't they send their chief to discuss the matter in Delhi? All this talk about Gen. Kiani threatening to move military troops from FATA is not helping the cooperation process.
Prof. Cole,
Your take that the attack was intended to be incendiary toward Indian/Pakistan relations (and perhaps internal Indian Hindu/Muslim relations) would seem likely. If the gov't discovers domestic invovlement in the attacks, it likely will suppress that information as it would doubtless lead to substantial sectarian conflict. (Then again, such info might be leaked.)
I wonder if it is purely a coincidence that just a couple of weeks ago the Army Chief of Staff in Pakistan abolished the ISI's civil/political unit. The attacks had obviously been planned for some time, but one wonders if Kitani (I think that's his name) was running down a list of rogues to purge in ISI, but didn't get there in time. Just speculation, of course.
Towards the end you said that "If any group of ten fanatics can go about provoking a war, we are going to have a lot of wars" but if war is declared it wouldn't be declared because of those ten fanatics but the continuous onslaught of attacks across India by terrorists that get trained in Pakistan with help from the ISI and ex-military officers.
India's reactions to conflicts always is holding dialogues with Pakistan but till how long can this be expected? The public outrage against these attacks is immense and action is required to be taken by the Indian govt but with Pakistan's continuous inaction and non-cooperation with India it would be tough to avoid looking at military options.
communal riots breaking out in Mumbai this time around seem inevitable...
"All this talk about Gen. Kiani threatening to move military troops from FATA is not helping the cooperation process.:
It's about time Pakistan spoke up and reminded the US about the sacrifices it has made on its behalf on the so-called war on terror. The remark was directed toward Washington D.C. in as much as it was meant for a New Delhi consumption.
The estimated 10 billion dollars allocated to Pakistan, most of which in a scheme of weaponry can hardly be called a reciprocal political relationship or some sort "even-steven" equation in light of the drone missiles and the cross border special forces raids in NWFP & FATA. Keep in mind Obama has promised more of these sovereignty busting citizenry dusting operations as soon as he sits, twists and swivels in his lounge chair in the white house. On an ancillary note, I wonder if Rahm and Barack will be using red phones to communicate like Batman and the Commissioner.
The tens of thousands of Pakistani troops on the border with Afghanistan and the tribal areas are their trump ace card in the hole and they chose an opporutune time to play it. Well done.
Maybe if they pulled that wild joker out earlier, their pleas for financial support in facing this dire economic condition would have met some ready ears and open check books. Instead they had to get in line at the IMF office.
@Juan Cole: You state ...If any group of ten fanatics can go about provoking a war, we are going to have a lot of wars. Well 19 hijackers led to two wars: Iraq and Afganistan. So why can’t ten fanatics lead to one war?
@Juan Cole: You state ...If any group of ten fanatics can go about provoking a war, we are going to have a lot of wars. Well 19 hijackers led to two wars: Iraq and Afganistan. So why can’t ten fanatics lead to one war?
You forgot to include a few other fanatics responsible for the Iraq War...namely Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Perle, etc etc.
"If any group of ten fanatics can go about provoking a war, we are going to have a lot of wars."
Well said. It's time we learned this lesson. I hope India will teach the world something about this.
I thought this line from the Dawn article was rather funny:
"
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is due in India on Wednesday to try to lower tensions after the attacks in Mumbai, which could threaten a US-led effort to battle militants along Pakistan’s Afghan border."
Sending Rice to reduce tensions? Is that a good idea?!!
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