One Million Iraqis Killed; Humanitarian Crisis of Vast Proportions; 6 Bombings in Baghdad

Ambassador Marc Ginsburg is astonished that John McCain could win in Florida on a platform of a Hundred Years War in Iraq and phony slogans about "victory" that McCain is careful never to define. In my view, McCain's mantra about "victory" in Iraq is the 2008 equivalent of Nixon having a "secret plan" to end the Vietnam War in 1968. Somebody should please ask McCain what "victory" would look like exactly and how he would get there. Intensively patrolling some neighborhoods and cutting them off from traffic with blast walls are not measures that can be kept up for very long. Then what?

Besides, someone please do me a favor and actually read the list of bombings and killings appended at the end of this post, occuring in downtown Baghdad and elsewhere, and tell me why John McCain thinks things are just hunky dory there. Is it a racist thing where it doesn't matter how many Iraqis are killed as long as US troops aren't? Even then, 5 US troops were blown up on Monday. Yeah, that's real calm.

A new professional poll carried out by a British firm in Iraq concludes that excess deaths from violence since March 19, 2003 through summer 2007 came to just over 1 million. Note that excess deaths from violence do not necessarily imply that they are directly war-related. Thus, murders of a criminal sort, tribal feuding, and so forth would be included. Since Bush interfered with the establishment of a strong new government after his invasion, he promoted the sort of insecurity that permitted high rates of violence, whether political, criminal or war-related. This poll tracks with the findings of the studies of Gilbert Burnham and Les Roberts, published in the Lancet and disputes lower numbers found by a recent WHO study (which, however, only ran through June 2006 and was limited solely to civilians--this British study goes to 2007 and seems to include everyone.)

The British findings are also consistent with estimates of between 1 million and 2 million widows in Iraq. These widows, many of them young, face extreme poverty without a breadwinner. As the Iraqi street has been captured by religious parties and militias, gender segregation and female seclusion have increased, which prevents single young women from going out to work in mixed-gender settings like stores and workshops. In short, Iraq is being Talibanized by Bush's war.

Reuters points out that almost none of the widows are getting any welfare payments from the Iraqi government. It adds: "A report by aid groups found that 43 percent of Iraqis lived in "absolute poverty". Four million people needed food assistance and only one in three children under five had access to safe drinking water."

A new poll finds that the percentage of Americans who think the war to overthrow Saddam Hussein was worth it to the US declined from 35% to only 32% between December and January. The percentage who thought it was not worth it rose from 56% to 59% according to the same poll. It turns out that the American public is not impressed with a mere reduction in violence nowadays from apocalyptic levels last year this time. They want to know why we went there in the first place, and why their sacrifice of blood and treasure was worthwhile. No one, including McCain really has an answer for that.

Bush signed a law forbidding him from spending money to make permanent bases in Iraq but at the same time issued a signing statement making clear he had no intention of paying any attention to that or several other provisions in the legislation. What do you call a leader unconstrained by his legislature? An absolute monarch. I thought we had a revolution to get rid of that sort of thing.

McClatchy reports political violence for Wednesday:

' Baghdad

A member of the national police was killed and another four members were injured in an IED explosion that targeted their patrol near al Mustansiriyah University in Waziriyah neighborhood east Baghdad around 7:00 am.

Two civilians were injured in 2 IEDs explosion in al Nidhal Street downtown Baghdad around 7:15 am.

Five members of the national police were injured in 2 IEDs explosion that targeted their patrol underneath Ghadeer bridge in Ghadeer neighborhood east Baghdad around 7:30 am.

Three civilians were injured when a mortar shell hit al Mansour neighborhood west Baghdad around 8:00

A joint force (Iraqi and US army) raided the office of Atheer cell phone network in Mansour neighborhood west Baghdad today afternoon and arrested 8 employees

Police found three anonymous bodies in Baghdad . . .

Kirkuk

A police source said that a police patrol found two head of men near one of the factories in Doz town south of Kirkuk today morning. The source said that the two heads were [of] two Turkmen men called Sabah Fadel and Mohannad Jum’a who were kidnapped a week ago.

Anbar

A member of Abo Zakarya Sahwa office (Abo Zakarya awakening office ) was killed and three others were wounded in a suicide car bomb that targeted the office in Thiraa’ Dijla area northwest of Baghdad on Tuesday afternoon.

Mosul

Gunmen killed Dr. Khaleel Ibraheem, the head of the Sharia in the college of the Islamic sciences in Musol University and one of his students in al Mishraq neighborhood east Mosul city today afternoon.

Diyala

Gunmen attacked a house in Bardaniyah village, 7 Kms north of Baquba city killing the father and injuring his two sons and his daughter.

Gunmen attacked abdul Hameed village, 10 Kms north of Baquba kidnapping three civilians.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Afghanistan: Danger of Failed State

Several new studies have just appeared warning that things could go very badly very easily in Afghanistan, which could turn into a failed state. One bad side effect, a British study concluded, would be the discrediting of NATO.

Barney Rubin weighs in on what could be done from Kabul.

An Australian study thinks Australian troops will still be needed 15 years from now in Afghanistan, and that the central government still will not have control of some of the Pushtun regions where al-Qaeda was strong in the past.

Today's news from Afghanistan includes a suicide bombing and the finding of decapitated bodies.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

5 US troops Wounded; 5 Killed Monday put on Planes; Who is thinking about the 18-year Olds?

AP reports that:

' A bomb exploded at a checkpoint Tuesday in Baghdad, wounding five American soldiers and three civilians, the U.S. military said. Iraqi officials claimed it was a suicide bombing and said two people were killed. The attack occurred just after noon as women were being searched before being allowed to enter a commercial street in the predominantly Sunni Amariyah neighborhood in southwest Baghdad, according to a local police official and an Iraqi army officer." '

The wounding of these US troops follows a day after five US troops were killed in a roadside bomb attack on Monday in Mosul. This attack was the second-deadliest this year, and brings the total so far for US fatalities in Iraq to 37, far more than December's 23. The commitment of troops to an actual set of engagements in Mosul led to these recent deaths, and I have for some time wondered if the fall in troop deaths was simply because they were no longer being committed to ground campaigns in any numbers. The recent attack on Arab Jubour appears to have been done mainly from the air, as Tom Engelhardt points out, and when afterwards troops were sent in, they were at risk from roadside bombs.

AP reports that a ceremony was held on base on Tuesday for the five troops killed Monday, as their bodies were loaded in an airplane:

' At a U.S. base outside Mosul, scores of U.S. troops and an honor guard stood at attention on the airfield tarmac as five coffins of their slain comrades were loaded onto a plane for the journey home.

A cold wind blew as the bleak ceremony began. Five groups of eight pallbearers each took turns unloading a flag-draped coffin from the back of five Humvee ambulances, as about 75 members of the fallen soldiers' unit stood at attention.

At least 100 other soldiers stood erect and silent through the 30-minute ceremony. Even civilian workers at the airport of Forward Operating Base Marez on the outskirts of Mosul formed an honor line as the dead soldiers bodies' were loaded into a gray C-130 transport plane.

Soldiers refused permission to photograph the ceremony, saying the pain of the sudden loss of five comrades was too great, and that not all the families had been notified.

"President Bush should be out here watching this ramp ceremony to see what it is really like," said one soldier, who asked not to be identified.

"The people who created this war need to be thinking about the families of these 18-year-olds who are dying." '

Let me just repeat that last phrase: "The people who created this war need to be thinking about the families of these 18-year-olds who are dying." That was said by one of our patriots in Iraq. It is true. It made me cry a little.

On Tuesday, 9 headless bodies and 10 heads [sic] were found in a field in Diyala province. McClatchy says that police found DVDs containing confessions that the men belonged to an Awakening Council group. So this was likely Baathists of Salafi Jihadis killing what they saw as collaborators. The US gives a stipend of $250 a month to most Awakening Council militiamen.

US officers in Iraq seem uncomfortable with the diction of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who announced that the current military operation in Mosul would "finish off" "al-Qaeda." Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling said that taking on the rebels would be "a long process."

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

' Baghdad
4 Iraqi Army servicemen and 6 civilians injured as IED exploded targeting an army patrol in Bab al-Sharji, Sadoon St. in central Baghdad at 08:00 this morning.

3 policemen and 5 civilians injured as IED exploded targeting a police patrol Sina'a St, the industrial neighbourhood near The University of Technology at 08:30 this morning.

An IED targeted an American military patrol in Canal St. east Baghdad. No casualties reported.

3 civilians injured in an IED explosion in al-Dakhiliya neighbourhood, al-Yarmouk, south Baghdad at 10:30 am..

A mortar round hit al-Fdhailiyah neighbourhood, east Baghdad injuring 2 civilians at 11:00 am.

3 Katyusha missiles hit the green zone starting at 02:50 this afternoon at almost 30 minute intervals. No casualties were reported. . .

3 bodies were found in Baghdad today by Iraqi Police. 1 in Ma’amil, 1 in Shaab and 1 in Doura.

Mosul

A vehicle born IED driven by a suicide bomber targeted an American military patrol in al-Thubbat neighbourhood, central Mosul Killing 1 and injuring 15 civilians. The Americans cordoned the area off. No American casualties were reported.

2 policemen killed and 2 injured as gunmen attacked a vehicle carrying 4 policemen of the Mosul police force on the main road to Baghdad yesterday afternoon.

Anbar

An armed group attacked a police commander’s motorcade which was also carrying some high ranking officials of the Tharthar area near Saqlawiyah town 20 km to the north of Fallujah, but were unsuccessful in their attempt. A police force was sent on their trail, with allegedly Sahwa members. They rounded up 20 people suspected of being amongst the attackers and executed them in the same neighbourhood. [sic]

Two truck drivers were abducted and taken along with their trucks on the route between Fallujah and Tharthar. Their hands were bound and they were killed by releasing their freight of pebbles upon them.

The police at Saqlawiyah police station opened fire upon two suspicious men headed for the police station. The two men then exploded and it was found that they had been wearing explosive belts. 5 policemen were superficially injured.

Salahuddin

District Commissioner of Salman Bek district and member of the provincial council for the Kurdistan Coalition party, Talib Mohammed Mustafa survived an assassination attempt. He and his driver got away from the attack that was carried out with machine guns and other light weapons on the main road to the south of Tuz.

Fatma al-Haseni was seriously injured and her two colleagues were killed by gunmen in the Mahatta neighbourhood on the way between Baghdad and Tikrit this afternoon. Al-Haseni and her deceased colleagues worked for the Furat satellite station.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

One last Argument with Bush

When Bush first came in, the comedian Will Ferrell did a skit on the television show "Saturday Night Live" that depicted the president cowering under his desk as bombs went off in Washington and the country went down the tubes. Coming after the prosperity and relative peace of the Clinton years, it seemed a fantastic parody. Little did we know that if anything SNL did not begin to capture the full extent of the catastrophe.

Nobody cares any more, unlike in 2003 when shills for the war were always on my case to "report the good news" and lay off Bush. Some of my "arguments with Bush" during the past 7 years were internet bestsellers. Now, the man has discredited himself so badly, he can't even get people to so much as yawn at him. But in honor of all those arguments of the past, I'm doing it one last time.

As usual, most of what he said in the State of the Union address was transparent lies. He praised private groups for doing charity work in Louisiana because he hasn't followed through on his own promises after Katrina. He did that phony thing of reporting the average tax "increase" if his "tax cuts" were allowed to expire. If I'm in the room with someone who made a billion dollars last year and Bush doesn't cut my taxes at all but he cuts those of the billionaire such that he saves 5% of his income, then the two of us in the room have an average tax cut of $25 million apiece. But in the real world, I get bupkus and the billionaire gets $50 million. That shell game sums up the Republican "tax cut" scam they keep running on the American middle class, which always falls for it.

So here are some last arguments with the man's bald faced lies, for old times sake.

Bush assertion: "We believe that the most reliable guide for our country is the collective wisdom of ordinary citizens."

Sad Fact: Indiana GOP tries to keep ordinary citizens from voting with restrictive photo identification law.

Bush assertion: "And so, in all we do, we must trust in the ability of free peoples to make wise decisions and empower them to improve their lives for their futures."

Sad fact: Amit Paley writes, "A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to immediately withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure would make Iraq more secure and decrease sectarian violence, according to new polls by the State Department and independent researchers.
In Baghdad, for example, nearly three-quarters of residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent of those asked favoring an immediate pullout . . ."

Bush assertion: "We've seen Afghans emerge from the tyranny of the Taliban and choose a new president and a new parliament."

Sad fact: "Afghanistan Journalist sentenced to Death for Blasphemy" and I don't think women would agree with Bush's rosy picture of progressive democracy in Kabul. Not to mention that half the country's gross domestic product is generated by the heroin trade. Bush goes on to say that his democratic projects are only being interrupted by terrorists; but all the problems above are problems with the establishment, not with terror groups.

Bush assertion: "From expanding opportunity to protecting our country, we've made good progress."

Sad fact: Bush's Iraq is a major generator of terrorism, which it was not before 2003. "Iraq has replaced Afghanistan as the prime training ground for foreign terrorists who could travel elsewhere across the globe and wreak havoc, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials and classified studies" by the CIA and the Department of State, Warren P. Strobel reported July 4, 2005. "Iraq's emergence as a terrorist training ground appears to challenge President Bush's rationale for invading and overthrowing leader Saddam Hussein in March 2003," Strobel wrote." So we are safer how again?

Bush assertion: "We launched a surge of American forces into Iraq. We gave our troops a new mission: Work with the Iraqi forces to protect the Iraqi people, pursue the enemy in his strongholds, and deny the terrorists sanctuary anywhere in the country."

Sad fact: "The Iraqi Red Crescent Organization and the U.N. reported last month that the “number of Iraqis fleeing their homes has soared since the American troop increase began in February. . . The chart reports some decreases in the intensity of “ethno-sectarian violence” in certain Baghdad districts (Note: This is based on military data). But where there have been decreases, they are due largely to the fact that “mixed Muslim” areas are being overrun by either Shia or Sunni enclaves.The map above demonstrates that Shias have been gradually taking over all of Baghdad (noted by the green mass that now covers much of the city), wiping out Sunni communities that stood in their path. Center for American Progress analyst Brian Katulis estimated that Baghdad, which once used to be a 65 percent Sunni majority city, is now 75 percent Shia."

A large proportion of the 1.5 million Iraqi refugees in Damascus was displaced to Syria during 2007, apparently as a side effect of Bush's troop surge.

So all this involves "protecting the Iraqi people" how, exactly? Does Bush think Iraqis are safer when they are refugees in a foreign country?

He won't be missed.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

2 US Troops Killed; Marsh Arab Tribal Sheikh Murdered in Basra; Bombings, Kidnapping in Baghdad

The USG Open Source center translates from an Iraqi television report, "Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki pledged to end the crisis facing his government as a result of the recurring withdrawals of the political blocs, asserting that there will be a change this week. In press statements, Al-Maliki said that the Presidency Council gave him two weeks to announce a new government -- either with the return of the ministers of the Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front and the Iraqi List or forming a new government. He added that there is only one week to do so, pointing out that if a new government is formed, it will be based on criteria other than the sectarian quota system."

The Presidency Council ultimatum has put pressure on al-Maliki to bring the [Sunni fundamentalist] Iraqi Islamic Party back into his government, but I haven't seen evidence that Iyad Allawi's secular National Iraqi List is thinking of rejoining the cabinet.

Tensions are increasing between the Kurdistan Alliance and the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Outstanding issues include Kurdistan oil deals pursued independent of the Federal government, and the Baghdad government's foot-dragging on arranging for a referendum in Kirkuk province on whether it should accede to the Kurdistan Regional Authority (a provincial confederacy wherein 3 provinces have erased their boundaries and elected a join parliament).

The Kurdish newspaper Hawlati reported on 27 January that Kirkuk Governorate Council member Muhammad Kamal has threatened to cut off links with Baghdad if Article 140 of the constitution, which provides for the referendum, is not implemented.

In a phrase appropriate to the state of news and analysis about Iraq in general, the USG Open Source Center quotes from Sharqiya or Iraqiya television: "Iraqi Defense Minister Abd-al-Qadir al-Ubaydi said that the situation in Mosul in central Ninawa Governorate in northern Iraq is much worse than he was told." The Interior Ministry is recruiting 3,000 men to combat the guerrillas, in part from clans who saw loved ones killed or injured in the recent bomb blast near Mosul.

The USG Open Source Center reports from Iraqi television, "In Maysan Governorate in southern Iraq, the authorities set up a crisis management cell in the governorate. Meanwhile, a number of imitators of Ahmad Bin-al-Hasan, also known as Al-Yamani, were arrested. A source at the Maysan Governorate Police Department said that the cell, which is headed by the governor of Maysan and includes the police director, the head of the governorate municipal council, and a number of members of the Council of Representatives, aims at running the security affairs of the governorate in emergency cases and preventing any security violation there. He added that detachments from the Maysan Police Department arrested a number of Al-Mahdi (as heard) followers in Maysan for involvement in the incidents that took place in Basra and Al-Nasiriyah."

Maysan is ruled by the Sadr Movement, which is clearly alarmed by the millenarian Supporters of the Mahdi. (The Sadrists are also mild millenarians, so this other movement is real competition for them). The report is saying that claimants to be the Mahdi or the Promised One of Islam are cropping up all over southern Iraq, and that the inchoate movement swirling around them easily turns violent. Think the David Koreish group at Waco on steroids.

Sawt al-Iraq reports that on Saturday afternoon, Shaikh Sami Husayn, the head of the Marsh Arab Bahadili tribe, was kidnapped in downtown Basra. On Sunday morning, his body was found in the street, with three bullets in his head. Shaikh Sami had been a member of the Baath Party under Saddam. Basra's factions tribes are likely to be mired in a feud as a result of this assassination.

Reuters reports that:

'BAGHDAD - One U.S. soldier was killed by a roadside bomb while he was on patrol in Baghdad on Saturday, the U.S. military said. . . '

McClatchy adds accounts of further attacks:

' Baghdad

Around 10:00pm Saturday night, gunmen broke into the house of Ahmed J[a]wad Hashim, a former general director in Baghdad municipality during Saddam’s regime. The attack took place in Talbiyah neighborhood east Baghdad. The gunmen slaughtered Hashim, his wife, his daughter and his son, police said.

[Six] people were injured (3 civilians and two soldiers) in an IED explosion that targeted an Iraqi army patrol near al Nida’a mosque in Qahira neighborhood east Baghdad around 7,30 am.

Around 7:45 am, gunmen kidnapped a bus with its passengers (5 female employees who work in the college of languages) in New Baghdad neighborhood east Baghdad.

Around 10:00 am, an IED exploded near Saj al Reef restaurant in Karrada neighborhood downtown Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

A US army hummer was burnt in an IED explosion near the medical cotton factory intersection in Waziriyah neighborhood east Baghdad around 12:00 pm. The US army confirmed in a press release the news about the attack saying that one soldier was killed in the explosion.

Police found four anonymous bodies in Baghdad. Two bodies were found in Rusafa, the eastern side of Baghdad in the following neighborhoods (1 body in Sadr city and 1 body in Qahira). The other two bodies were found in Karkh, the western side of Baghdad in the following neighborhoods (1 body in Amil and 1 body in Bayaa)

Diyala

Two civilians were injured when an IED exploded near their house in Sadiyah area east of Baquba city today afternoon.

Police found four anonymous bodies in one of the orchards in Shirween village, part of Muqdadiyah town east of Baquba city.

Two policemen were injured in clashes between the Iraqi police and gunmen in Dalli Abbasa area north of Baquba city today afternoon . . .'

Reuters adds, "KIRKUK - Gunmen killed a man in a drive-by shooting on Saturday outside his house in central Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Will the Next President be Irrelevant?

With Obama's win in South Carolina, it seems clear now that it is a four person race for the White House. On the Democratic side, it will be Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. On the Republican side, it will be John McCain or Mitt Romney.

McCain is still foolishly trying to own the Iraq quagmire, which I think will come back to haunt him in so many ways it isn't funny.

But what kind of America will the next president preside over? Is it an Incredible Shrinking Superpower?

Parag Khanna of the New America Foundation argues in the NYT Magazine that the choices the Bush administration has made have profoundly weakened US power in the world. Indeed, he suggests that Bush set the US on a downward spiral, such that Europe, China and India are picking up the pieces and making Washington irrelevant. While the US is bogged down in Iraq, China is quietly extending its influence in Asia. Europe is playing both sides against the middle, and is increasingly indebted to Russia and Central Asia for its energy.

You have to wonder whether Bush's aggressive, unilateral policies have not only sunk him but the rest of us as well.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Extra Police Protection for Sistani; Sadrists flee Wave of Arrests

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Iraqi security forces have since Friday evening instituted extra measures to protect the four grand ayatollahs who serve as spiritual leaders of the Shiite community in Iraq, and who live in Najaf. The precautions were taken after an assassination attempt against the representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Karbala failed.

Najaf Police Chief Abdul Karim Mustafa said, according to AFP, that he had intelligence of a plot by terrorist groups to create turmoil by assassinating Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and damaging the shrine of Imam Ali (the son-in-law and cousin of the Prophet Muhammad), among the holiest sites for Shiites.

Al-Hayat's sources also say that followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr are fleeing from southern cities to Najaf in the wake of a wave of arrests targeting them, especially in Basra and Diwaniya. (The police forces in Diwaniya are dominated by recruits from the Badr corps, a rival militia to the Mahdi Army. Basra is jointly in the hands of Badr and its rival, the paramilitary of the local ruling Fadhila or Virtue Party). It is Mahdi Army leaders who are fleeing to Najaf.)

Rahim al-Musawi, one of those who fled Basra for Najaf, is quoted as telling al-Hayat, "The security forces of Basra are implementing a campaign of arrests of supporters of al-Sadr on the grounds that they belong to Mahdist movements." The Mahdi is the future promised one of Islam, whose appearance signals the coming of the last days.

Sadrist MP Salah al-Ubaidi said that Muqtada al-Sadr will announce within a month whether his freezing of Mahdi Army activities will continue.

An aide to Muqtada al-Sadr, Sheik Qais al-Mudhaffar, was shot down in Najaf on Friday, as well.

Iraqi officials continue to be worried about the spread of radical Shiite millenarian cults in southern Iraq. Last weekend the Supporters of the Mahdi attacked police checkpoints and a Basra oil focility, as well as killing an Iraqi officer and wounding others in Nasiriya.

Voices of Iraq gives a recent history of the doomsday cults and their differences.

British Foreign Minister Lord Malloch Brown admitted Saturday that the Iraq War has been horrible:

'Commenting on President Bush statement that there would be victory eventually in Iraq, Malloch-Brown said: "We've lost a lot of people there. This is not something that theres triumphalism on any side. This is a terrible episode for everybody."

. . . Malloch-Brown predicted that Iraq would still be a huge issue in the US presidential debate. (ANI)'

Our world has become so Orwellian that when a British cabinet official admits that the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, the displacement of several million, the decline of health care, and the quarantining of entire neighborhoods behind blast walls, have been horrible, that is news.

Among the great tragedies of Bush's Iraq War has been the destruction of Iraqi history and archeology. Since the people who lived in what is now Iraq invented so much of ancient civilization, this loss diminishes us all.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

' Baghdad

- Around 8 a.m. gunmen used machine guns to attack policemen in Bab Al Sharqi, killing one policeman and injuring one.

- A roadside bomb targeted civilians in Al Qanat area causing no casualties.

- Around 10 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted civilians near Al Shaab soccer stadium, injuring five civilians.

- Iraqi police found one body in Dora.

Diyala

- Iraqi police said the American and Iraqi troops clashed with gunmen near Al Wajihiya area (about 25 Kilometers east of Baquba) killing four gunmen including a high ranking member of Al Qaeda.

- Gunmen attacked a local council building in Baquba injuring two guards.

- A roadside bomb targeted police in Muqdadia, killing one police officer and injuring 3 others.

- A roadside bomb targeted the personal car of one of Diyala governor's body guards in Abu Saida area. The guard was killed in the attack.

- Mortar shells slammed into Al Salam town about 20 kilometers east of Baquba, injuring three residents.

Sulaimaniyah

- Police found two bodies in two different areas of the province. The first deceased was Alaa Atiya, 27 years originally from Karbala, with two gun shots in the head and the knee and was found west of Sulaimaniyah city yesterday. The second body belongs to a Kurdish young man who was found in Sulaimaniyah city with gunshots in the body, police said.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sunni-Shiite Pact in Parliament

The USG Open Source Center translates a broadcast by the Iranian Al-Alam satellite television station reporting on a new pact between the [Shiite] Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the [Sunni coalition, the] Iraqi Accord Front, especially the latter's Islamic Iraqi Party. This alliance probably comes in response to the move of other parties to form an alliance against the ISCI-dominated government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Since the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq was originally formed by the Iranian government, al-Alam's reporting about it is positive.


Iraqi Sunni, Shiite Parties Meet To Agree on Charter for 'Concurrent Action'
Al-Alam Television
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

(Presenter) The Iraqi scene is witnessing noticeable political movement these days. Within this framework, the (Shiite) Islamic Supreme Council and the (Sunni) National Accord Front held a preliminary meeting and formed a committee to draft a charter on concurrent action. These meetings come amid reports of a new government to be formed headed by Al-Maliki.

(Correspondent) New alliances and blocs (are emerging) in the political process known for its multi-polar nature and inertia. Movement began inside and outside the deputies' chamber (Iraqi parliament) away from the work of the government. The Islamic Party, the largest party in the National Accord Front, and the Islamic Supreme Council are preparing to sign a charter on concurrent action.

(Hamid Mi'la, deputy for the Iraqi United Alliance) As is known, a meeting took place last Tuesday between the political bureaus of the two parties, the Islamic Supreme Council and the Islamic Party. An understanding was reached and ground was prepared for future understandings. Given the importance of these two political bodies, a committee was formed to draft some provisions on a joint agreement, the aim of which was to drive forward the political process.

(Abdul-Karim al-Samara'i, deputy for the Iraqi Accord Front) During this meeting the important political issues on the Iraqi front were discussed. There is a belief with the brothers at the Islamic Supreme Council that there is a need for the Islamic Party to participate in the decision-making of the Iraqi government, given that it is the biggest party on the Sunni front.

(Correspondent) Advancing the political process was evident from the meetings of the (political) bloc's leaders. The result was the removal of alliances and agreements which were deemed to be blocking political action, and the forming of others based on professionalism and away from quotas and bloc-formation.

(Abbas al-Bayyati, deputy for the United Iraqi Alliance) These agreements and meetings are part of the political movement. Everyone feels a sense of national responsibility through supporting the national unity government and by advancing the political process. This is especially so after everyone is sensing an improved security situation. This political movement and these bilateral agreements are evidence that the political forces are moving ever closer and are uniting around a nationalist foundation.

(Correspondent) These alliances come after a long list of discussions and deliberations. The parliament has seen in the last few months a change of the map of blocs and lists. According to observers, the future of these alliances, which have increased recently, will contribute to the driving forward of the political process and have already reflected well on the performance of the government and reduced tensions in parliament.

(Description of Source: Tehran Al-Alam Television in Arabic -- IRIB's 24-hour Arabic news channel, targetting a pan-Arab audience)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

OSC: Iraqi Kurd official says Kurds unequal US ally

The USG Open Source Center translates an opinion piece from a major Kurdish Iraqi newspaper containing quotes from a Kurdish official about the Kurdish-US relationship. The piece maintains that the alliance is one of convenience on the US side; is not as strong as that between Washington and Kuwait; and may not last if the interests of the two diverge. [This disillusionment may derive from the green light the US has recently given Turkey to bomb Kurdish villages in northern Iraq that are suspected of harboring guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party or PKK.]

Iraqi Kurd official says Kurds unequal US ally
Kurdistani Nuwe
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Excerpt

Iraqi Kurd official says Kurds unequal US ally

Excerpt from opinion piece by Farid Asasard - fourth in a series of articles - entitled "Kurdish-US- relations between desire and fact with an introduction by the editorial secretary of Kurdistani Nuwe: The fall of the former regime was the basis for Kurdish-US common interests", carried by Iraqi Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) newspaper Kurdistani Nuwe on 24 January

(Introduction by editor) The alliance or friendship between the Iraqi Kurdistan Region and the USA is often discussed by Kurdish officials and occasionally the Americans indicate that they are friends of the Kurds and support their democratic experience. What is the truth about that friendship and alliance, if it exists? How, and on what criterion and basis of clear interests the Iraqi Kurds are the friends of the USA or the USA is the friend of the Kurds? In which written text, agreement or document has that friendship been recorded? Does the essence of that friendship have an official and strategic basis or is it the outcome of a common perception regarding some of the events in Iraq and having some common interests in Iraq and the region? Does the friendship include moral commitment and obligation regarding the interests of both sides or is it just about the Kurds going along with US interests and adapting themselves to the wishes of the superpower?

How does the Kurdish leadership view the friendship? How confident are they about it and can they rely on it? To what extent is the friendship without a future? What are the long-term conditions of this friendship?

Do the Kurds have other superpowers to rely on for support as regards their rights and political demands in Iraq? Do the Kurds have a strong card to bind the USA to the supposed friendship with the Kurds? What would happen to the Kurds' political standing if the USA finds other reliable friends in Iraq? Is there a possibility that the USA would one day turn its back on the Kurds and their friendship and at what stage would that take place? Have the Kurds considered the possibility that the US may withdraw its friendship with the Kurds for whatever reason?

The Kurdish leadership needs to have a clear perception of the truth about its relationship with the US in order to have a clear political vision. Would they need to take the friendship to a strategic level and find out how to do that?
What is the Kurdish status in the recently-signed strategic accord between Iraq and the USA? What kind of consideration has been given to us and does the USA view the Kurds within the framework of Iraq or would they be given special treatment?

(Head of Strategic Study Centre Farid Asasard) The Kurds supported the US in its 2003 war against the former regime in Iraq. In fact that war marked a turning point in Kurdish-US relations and the Kurds and the US became allies in that war.

All the Kurdish alliances in the 20th Century ended in defeat for Kurdish interests. This applies to Kurdish alliance with the Kemalists (referring to followers of Turkey's first President Mustafa Kemal Ataturk) against Greece and Britain up until their alliance with Iran during the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq.

The Kurds in 1990 were exasperated with alliances but decided to take part in the US plan without consulting the US. Thus, the Kurdish-US alliance in the 2003 war was the first in which the Kurds gained something. As much as the alliance was unclear in 2003, it remains so until now. The Kurdish-US alliance resembles an alliance between a mouse and a lion. However, the roots, framework, the path followed and perseverance will show which one is the lion and which one the mouse (as published).
It is possible to overlook the issue and consider the alliance as one between a small nation and a world power, and it is like a card game for the small nation; it will either win well or lose badly. (Passage omitted)

Kurdish-US alliance is not bound by any declared pledge, agreement or written text, which leads to the absence of a framework for clearly identifying common interests. No alliance can exist without common interests, but the issue here is not about common interests because a number of factors, other than common interests, affect and ensure the establishment and persistence of common interests and under certain conditions they could become the basis for the development of these interests, while under different conditions they could destroy them and bring about dramatic changes and wipe off their traces. (Passage omitted)

The Kurds' immediate interest was in the fall of the former regime, and it was on the basis of the destruction of the former regime that common interests between Kurds and the US are being established. Prior to the fall of the former regime, the US was busy planning the creation of a new Iraq and they had gained experience in that area in Germany, Japan, Greece and Italy. The US strategic planning was for Iraq to spearhead change in the region. The plan, which was put into action after the fall of the regime, was established on the following pillars:

1. A democratic Iraq where power is exercised constitutionally and peacefully with the state of law and protection of human rights, where all the constituents participate in running the country.

2. Consolidation of a progressive economy that could compete at the international level.

3. An Iraq with a peaceful policy in line with US objectives.

The US wanted to present Iraq to the region as a model of a democratic and stable state with a progressive economy. They wanted to turn Iraq into a catalyst for change throughout the region. (Passage omitted)

We are not concerned that the US needs the Kurds at this juncture in Iraq because the Kurds can be an essential element in consolidating US objectives; after all, the US plan is in their interest. However, that is only one aspect of the issue and the other aspect is that the Kurds need the US more than the US needs the Kurds, and the US can find an alternative to the Kurds but the Kurds cannot find an alternative to the US. This means that the US is the source of the Kurds' strength while the US's strength comes from within.

It would be useful here to compare the US-Kuwaiti alliance with the Kurdish-US alliance because in both cases the US is the powerful side while the other two are weak, bearing in mind that there is a strategic partnership between the US and Kuwait. However, in addition to being a strategic ally of Kuwait, the US is also the protector of that country. Kuwait's value to the US is largely in ensuring fuel for its industrial machinery. Therefore, any attack on Kuwait would be considered an attack on the US, and by protecting Kuwait the US is protecting its own interests.

US-Kurdish alliance is well behind US-Kuwaiti alliance. The value of the Kurds to the US lies in that the US needs Kurdish help at this difficult juncture in Iraq and it may not need the Kurds in the way it does now when the difficulties end. An important aspect of the issue is that the Kurds have not considered that the US has special conditions for alliances. As soon as the cold war ended with the collapse of the Eastern Bloc, the alliance conditions changed. The only condition set by the US for its allies during the cold war was opposition to communism and in exchange it turned a blind eye on the behaviour and policies of all its allies. Now, with the globalization of democracy and human rights, the removal of boundaries of the transfer of knowledge and raising influence of public opinion, the US is no longer able to turn a blind eye on the shortcomings of its allies and considers it its responsibility to draw their attention to many issues which did not matter in the past.

The growth of Kurdish-US alliance requires the element of need. On the basis of this judgment, there is no hope in any plan for political and economic reform in the region with this administration, which demonstrates much disorder - a reminder of the 19th Century principalities - and has been subjected to all kinds of schemes; with this political system which has not been able to revitalize the administration departments to manage and provide the required services; with the little transparency that exists; with this economic system which is controlled by some families, political parties and groups and has an adverse impact on the freedom of work and service resources. All that leaves no basis for even a limited alliance with the US. The US cannot conceive establishing a strategic alliance with all these drawbacks that exist in the region and the region cannot fulfil the conditions that the US deems essential.

(Description of Source: Al-Sulaymaniyah Kurdistani Nuwe in Kurdish -- daily newspaper published by Iraqi Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK))

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Maliki Announces Push on Mosul; ICTJ says Iraq Debaathification law Makes things Worse

According to al-Hayat in Arabic, Iraqi preachers on Friday expressed outrage over the Israeli siege of Gaza and condemned Arab governments for doing nothing about it. They also condemned the bombing in Mosul and the doomsday group, Supporters of the Mahdi, in the Shiite south.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Iraqi parliament still has not passed a budget. One of the hangups is that the Kurds are demanding 17% of the government expenditures (and are also demanding that the federal state pay for their state militia, the Peshmerga). The Arab delegates to parliament are not willing to give the Kurds such a high proportion of government monies.

Al-Hayat also says that the (Sunni) Iraqi Islamic Party is definitely coming back into the Nuri al-Maliki government.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki announced a major Iraqi military operation in the north, in the vicinity of Mosul, on Friday. He said that the Iraqi army would make a 'final push' against "al-Qaeda."

But al-Maliki's security forces are largely Shiite, and recruited from sectarian Shiite movements, at that. Mosul is 80% Sunni Arab. So the likelihood that an Iraqi army crackdown in the region will be viewed by local Sunnis as a good thing strikes me as low. Moreover, a lot of the resistance to the government in Mosul comes from cells of the Baath Party, and dismissing Sunni politics as "al-Qaeda" is inaccurate and likely to lead to poor political maneuvering. Without popular support, the federal government remains weak.

Mark Perry reports that the US officer corps had wanted to reach out to the Sunni Arab tribes of al-Anbar years ago but was consistently blocked by the civilian politicians of the White House (presumably because they had thrown in with the Shiite fundamentalist parties and Ahmad Chalabi's Iraq National Congress). Was the length of the struggle with the "insurgency" an artifact of Don Rumsfeld's, Paul Wolfowitz's and Condi Rice's various and contradictory policies, which had the effect of over-ruling the good sense of our smart officers on the ground? Par II is here. Perry argues that no one among the officers can figure out who is in charge of policy. What I hear is that the top officers in Iraq feel they have done everything they can, but that policy is adrift and BushCo won't make any tough decisions about where to go from here. And, the officers don't make policy, they mainly do tactics in the service of a strategy that should be coming from the White House. It isn't.

Sounds to me like the Exxon Valdez, with Bush playing the skipper and Iraq playing the supertanker.

On the political front, I fear this national reconciliation thing is not working out very well in Iraq.

The International Center for Transitional Justice which specializes in helping countries come to terms with past human rights abuses, has issued a detail report (available here in pdf format) that brings sharply into question the usefulness to national reconciliation of the new law on debaathification passed by the Iraqi parliament. They translated the law here (again, pdf). ICTJ concludes:

' 1. The new law is not the major change that reformers had pushed for. Instead, the law preserves the previous De-Ba'athification system and simply renames Iraq's controversial De-Ba'athification Commission. This is a major change from the draft law that went to parliament in December;

2. Reinstatement rights, pension rights, and the appeals system have been strengthened for many thousands of people, at least on paper. These are welcome improvements - but do not change the fact that the system is still based on guilt by association, not on individual deeds;

3. The new Commission has stronger powers than previously and its reach will now extend across different organizations, including the President's Office, Prime Minister's Office, and the Supreme Judicial Council. Exemptions will be harder to come by. These changes will likely cause political backlash and also severely violates the independence of Iraq's judiciary. These provisions are in addition to the new language that forces all former employees of Ba'ath era security forces to retire, which is already complicating the law's political reception;

4. The new Commission will now have the power to investigate complaints of corruption or criminal activity by former Ba'athists and gather evidence for judicial action. This could be a welcome move towards greater accountability-or a new mechanism to conduct public and high profile witch hunts. Much depends on the Commission's new leadership and the new rules they must establish for the Commission's work. '

As I pointed out when the law was first passed by parliament, I found it suspicious that some powerful Sadrists were behind it and enthusiastic about it, but that ex-Baathists like Iyad Allawi and Salih Mutlak came out against the legislation. If it were really good for ex-Baathists, you'd have expected it to be the other way around. Much will depend on how it is implemented, but the ex-Baathists apparently fear that it will be used to shut them out of politics altogether.

Parliament designed a new flag to replace that of Saddam Hussein, removing the three stars symbolic of Baath principles and changing Saddam's handwriting to an ancient block script (it still say God is Most Great). Even these minor changes have angered many Sunni Arabs, and apparently it will not be flown in al-Anbar Province. Likewise the Kurds don't like it, because it is too much like the old flag that flew in the Baath period, when Kurds were subjected to gas attacks.

As for those 18 benchmarks of political progress that Congress wanted to see before they went on funding Bush's boondoggle in Iraq, the Center for American Progress doesn't find that much has been accomplished on those, either.
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Mosul Police Chief Killed; Karbala'i Escapes Assassination

The police chief of Mosul and two other officers were killed by a suicide bomber when they came to the site of the recent powerful explosion. The death toll from that bomb rose to 40.

A bomb lightly wounded Abdul Mahdi Karbala'i, the representative in the holy Shiite city of Karbala of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, and killed two of his body guards on Thursday. He was leaving the shrine of Imam Husayn (the martyred grandson of the Prophet). This is a season of passionate mourning for Husayn among Shiites, and if Karbala'i had been killed, I think there was substantial danger of a mass outbreak of violence and rioting in the city.

The Bush administration wants a wide-ranging set of commitments from the Iraqi government that will exempt not only the US military but also civilian contractors from Iraqi law. In the colonial period such treaties were common, and exemptions were called 'capitulations.' The immunity of US troops from Iranian law was one of the grievances Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini highlighted when he made the revolution against Iran's monarch, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

Hiring Paul Wolfowitz to advise the State Department on arms control is like hiring Lindsay Lohan as a driving instructor.

Besides, when someone is consistently wrong and always vastly exaggerating the threat from abroad, it isn't normal. Here's a trip down memory lane:

'With Ford’s approval, Bush also granted a team of hard-line Cold Warriors, including neoconservative academic Paul Wolfowitz, access to the CIA’s raw intelligence on the Soviet Union capabilities, enabling this so-called “Team B” to challenge the CIA’s nuanced assessment of Soviet strength. Though the intelligence pointed to serious – and worsening – Soviet deficiencies, “Team B” emerged with an alarmist vision of Soviet power and intentions. In late 1976, Bush largely adopted this dire assessment, which restricted the maneuvering room of Ford’s successor, Democrat Jimmy Carter.'

And we need him to vastly exaggerate the threat from Iran, why? Maybe because no one reputable would take it on?

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

Two policemen were killed and 3 others were injured including a policeman in an IED explosion in al Andulos square downtown Baghdad around 8,00 am.

Two civilians were injured in an IED explosion in Ghadeer neighborhood east Baghdad around 4,00 pm.

A civilian was injured in an IED explosion in Zafaraniyah district southeast Baghdad around 4,30 am.

Police found three anonymous bodies in Baghdad today. Two bodies were found in Doura neighborhood in Karkh, the western side of Baghdad while the third body was found in Ma’amil neighborhood in Rusafa, the eastern side of Baghdad.

Nineveh

Mosul police chief Brigadier General Salih Mohammed Hasan al Jobori and one of his guards were killed and 10 other people including al Jobori guards were injured when a suicide bomber detonated himself among them while al Jobori was visiting al Zinjili area west Mosul city where the explosion happened yesterday. Police said that the suicide bomber was wearing a police uniform confirming that al Jobori was injured seriously and he died after moving him to the hospital.

The toll of the explosion of Zinjili explosion which took place yesterday rose to 40 killed people and 220 others injured.'

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Beinin Guest Op-Ed: The People in Gaza Challenge Sham Peace Process

by Joel Beinin

About 3:00 am on Wednesday morning Jan. 23, well-coordinated explosions demolished the iron wall built by Israel to seal the southern border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt (the Philadelphi axis). Tens of thousands of Palestinians streamed across the border and entered the Egyptian side of the town of Rafah, which had been bisected by the wall, in search of food, gasoline, and other basic commodities which have been in short supply for many months in Gaza. The first wave of Palestinians to cross consisted of hundreds of women who were met with water canons and beatings by Egyptian security forces.

The wall was the starkest expression of the international boycott of Hamas imposed by the United States, Israel, and the European Union after Hamas won a majority of the seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections of January 2006 and formed a government the following March. Hamas has been in sole control of the Gaza Strip after it executed a coup d'état against Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in June 2007. Since then, Israel has tightened the siege of Gaza which had been in effect since June 2006.

In response, Hamas and Palestinian Jihad militants have fired thousands of Qassam missiles on the town of Sderot and other Israeli population centers near the Gaza Strip. According to the 2007 annual report of B'Tselem, the Israeli human rights organization, Hamas and Jihad killed twenty-four Israeli civilians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip during 2006 and 2007 and thirteen Israeli military personnel.

In retaliation, Israel escalated the pace of its targeted assassinations of Hamas and Jihad militants, killing hundreds of civilians in the process. Based on B'Tselem's 2007 annual report, a Ha-Aretz investigation (Jan. 14, 2008) concluded that Israeli forces killed 816 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip during 2006 and 2007; at least 360 of them were civilians not affiliated with any armed organizations; 152 of the casualties were under age 18, and 48 were under the age of 14.

Despite the siege, Israel continued to provide electricity and water to the Gaza Strip, allowing people to live on the edge of survival, hoping that the economic pressure would bring down the Hamas government. Half the population now depends on charity handouts from the UN refugee relief organization and other humanitarian NGOs. Four days before the wall came crashing down, Israel sharply cut back fuel and water supplies, imposing a harsh collective punishment on the entire population of 1.5 million.

According to Ha-Aretz columnist Amira Hass (Jan. 24, 2008), for several months Hamas leaders had been discussing measures to end Gaza's torment, described by Rela Mazali, an Israeli feminist peace activist with the New Profile organization and an editor of Jewish Peace News, as "an abomination." Apparently, Hamas decided that four days of hermetic closure, following months of siege, created conditions in which Egypt and the international community would be willing to accept bringing down the wall. Hamas did not take official responsibility for blowing up the wall, but praised the action.

The Egyptian press reported that, several days before the wall was blown up, the General Guide of the Muslim Brothers, the largest opposition force in Egypt, spoke by telephone to Khaled Mash'al, the head of the Political Bureau of Hamas who resides in Damascus. Hamas emerged from the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brothers; and there is a high likelihood that the actions of the two organizations were coordinated. Following this consultation, the Brothers began to organize demonstrations throughout Egypt beginning on Friday, Jan. 18. The number of its supporters in the street gradually increased, culminating on Wednesday. Jan. 23. That morning, thousands of Egyptian security forces surrounded Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo and arrested hundreds (according to some reports thousands) of people who were attempting to demonstrate in solidarity with the people of Gaza. The demonstration was supported by both the Muslim Brothers and secular nationalists.

Meanwhile, at Rafah, Egyptian security forces initially tried to stop the Palestinians from streaming across the border. But as the numbers swelled to tens of thousands, the government had no choice but to acquiesce. President Hosni Mubarak told journalists that he had instructed the security forces to: "Let them come in to eat and buy food" and return "as long as they are not carrying weapons."

What are the implications of these developments?

It appears that the Annapolis summit and the sham "peace process" it was supposed to have reinvigorated are dead -- killed by tens of thousands of unarmed Palestinians crossing the boarder into Egypt to meet their basic human needs. Shortly before President George W. Bush's visit to the Middle East, Israel began an expanded campaign of pressure on the Gaza Strip, including an escalation in targeted assassinations. Hamas has sent several signals that it was prepared for an informal ceasefire with Israel. But the political perspective articulated at Annapolis and its aftermath requires that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas cooperate with Israel in crushing Hamas rather than try to restore Palestinian national unity. Egypt's task in this drama is to stand silently by.

This is an impossible task and cannot in any way contribute to peace. Even if Mahmud Abbas were to come to terms and sign an agreement with Israel, it would have no credibility and would be very short lived without some degree of approval and participation from Hamas. A government of national unity that represents all the factions of the Palestinian people is the only entity capable of signing a viable peace agreement with Israel.

The Israeli government led by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert opposes the kind of agreement that a Palestinian national unity government would demand, as has every previous government of Israel. Such an agreement would require recognition of Palestinian national rights rather than paternalistic "concessions" granted by a magnanimous but ultimately all-powerful Israel.

The limited capacity of the Egyptian government to acquiesce to this program has been exposed. The Mubarak regime would like very much to see Hamas crushed, since it is an ally of the Muslim Brothers, its most substantial domestic opposition force. But the Palestinian cause is too popular and emotional an issue in Egypt for Mubarak to appear to be assisting Israel in starving the people of Gaza. Moreover, some of the demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza also raised slogans against the drastic rise in the price of food in recent months and against Husni Mubarak himself. Opposition demonstrations linking the Palestine cause with domestic economic issues and autocracy have the potential to threaten a regime whose legitimacy is already minimal.

Palestine, Israel, and Egypt after the fall of the Gaza wall are more unstable than before. It is desirable, but alas unlikely, that this instability will bring the leaderships to their senses and impel them to negotiate a just peace for the benefit of all. But it is more likely that Olmert, Abbas, and Mubarak -- all weak and discredited leaders -- will seek to hold onto power by clinging to the United States, which has a long record of opposing Palestinian-Israeli peace. The people of the Gaza Strip have taken their survival into their own hands and have shown that the power of ordinary people is more likely to shape the future than polished diplomatic formulas.

Joel Beinin

Cairo, Jan. 24, 2008

---

Joel Beinin is Professor of Middle East History at Stanford University. Beinin's article was posted to the mailing list of Jewish Voice for Peace.

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OSC: HAMAS-Iraq Launches 'Avenging Gaza' Campaign Against US Forces in Iraq

The USG Open Source Center summarizes and translates a posting on a jihadi web site of Iraqi guerrillas vowing to "avenge Gaza" by targeting American troops and the Iraqis that cooperate with them.

'HAMAS-Iraq Launches 'Avenging Gaza' Campaign Against US Forces in Iraq 19 Jan
Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
Thursday, January 24, 2008 . . .

Terrorism: HAMAS-Iraq Launches 'Avenging Gaza' Campaign Against US Forces 19 Jan On 19 January, a forum participant posted to a jihadist website a statement issued by the Al-Fatah al-Islami Command, the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement, HAMAS-Iraq, in which the group announced the launch of a one-week military campaign for 'avenging Gaza.' According to the group, the campaign targets the US Army. The statement was attributed to the Media Center of the Islamic Resistance Movement, HAMAS-Iraq.

A translation of the statement follows:

"In the Name of God the Merciful, the Compassionate.

"'Verily, We have granted thee a manifest Victory.' (Koranic verse, Al-Fath 48:1)

"Statement Number 134

"Week for Avenging Gaza

"As stated in the authenticated Hadith, the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, stated: 'Believers are supporting each other, like a structured building. Then, the Prophet, peace be upon him, crossed his fingers.' Ibn Kathir, may god enfold him in His mercy, stated: 'When God mentioned the notorious attributes of the hypocrites, He coupled that with mentioning the good attributes of the believers by saying: The Believers, men and women, are protectors one of another (Koranic verse, Al-Tawbah 9:71).' (Ibn Kathir's explanation of the Holy Koran; volume 2, page 370).

"Pursuant to these divine instructions, and due to the economic embargo and military aggression that are condoned by the American enemy and that our people are suffering in Gaza, the Al-Fatah al-Islami Command, the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement, HAMAS-Iraq, has decided to dedicate the current week to avenging Gaza. In this statement, the command calls on all military sectors to exert the maximum effort to inflict the heaviest casualties on the occupation and its quislings, considering the loss among the American enemy ranks a loss among the Zionist entity occupation forces.

"God is the Greatest. But honor belongs to Allah and His Messenger, and to the Believers; but the Hypocrites know not.' (partial Koranic verse, Al-Munafiqun 63:08)

"The Media Center

"Islamic Resistance Movement

"HAMAS-Iraq

"11 Muharram 1429, corresponding to 19 January 2008."
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159 Killed or Wounded in Massive Mosul Blast; Dems take on Bush over Iraq SOFA

Guerrillas were stockpiling munitions in an unoccupied building in the Zanjabili district near the Houston-sized northern city of Mosul. Someone informed the Iraqi security forces of the stockpile, and apparently the guerrillas had good intelligence on such things, so they blew up the arms warehouse to deny it to their foes. It blasted surrounding apartment buildings, killing 17 persons and wounding 132, including women and children. It reverberated through the city as no explosion ever had before. The casualty toll is likely to rise, since there were still people trapped under rubble at the site of the massive explosion.

[What amazes me is that at this late date, the guerrillas still have enormous munitions stockpiles of which the US and the Iraqi government remain ignorant.]

According to al-Bawaba and AP, at Tuz Khurmato, half hour drive outside the northern oil city of Kirkuk, a car bomber killed 7 and wounded 16.

In Baghdad itself, guerrillas attacked an army checkpoint in Bab al-Mudham, east of the Tigris, killing 7 soldiers and wounding 2.

Al-Bawaba adds: "Meanwhile, at least six members of an Iraqi family died in the city of Baquba, reports said Wednesday. The independent Iraqi news agency Voices of Iraq said suspected members of the al-Qaeda network attacked the house in the Behrez area, south of Baquba. They kidnapped the Iraqi civilian and five other members of his family. Security sources later found their corpses in a nearby district, the news agency said. "

The Democrats in Congress are mobilizing to stop Bush from concluding a security agreement with the Iraqi government that may tie the hands of the next president. They insist that any such agreement must pass through Congress. The White House appears to view the pact as a mere Status of Forces Agreement, and such SOFAs are typically concluded by the executive. Congress is interpreting the agreement not as a SOFA but as a mutual security treaty, which would require congressional approval.

Ironically, many in the Iraqi parliament are also upset that PM Nuri al-Maliki may initial the agreement without consulting them.

The real news is that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will visit Baghdad. After the long, gruelling Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, this is the first such high-level from Tehran to Baghdad. Prime ministers Ibrahim Jaafari and Nuri al-Maliki of Iraq have visited Iran.

The news satire is, "In other news, Columbia University President Lee Bollinger surfaced in Baghdad, today, insisting that he was going to introduce Ahmadinejad before the Iraqi parliament. He warned the parliamentarians not to get in his way, or they would be in for quote 'such a tongue-lashing' unquote."

McClatchy reports other political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

- Around 9 a.m., a roadside bomb exploded at Mansour neighborhood ( west Baghdad) at district 605. Some commercial shops damaged in that incident with no casualties recorded.

- Around 12 p.m., gunmen opened fire on an army check point . . . [see above].

- Around 12.30, a roadside bomb exploded at Zafaraniyah neighborhood (south Baghdad). No casualties reported.

- Around 3 p.m., gunmen assassinated the dean of Dental medicine, Munthir Ridha, at University of Baghdad.

- Police found ( 4 ) unidentified dead bodies . . .

Mosul

- Tuesday evening, gunmen assassinated Ali Suleiman Mohammad, a lecturer at Mosul university on his way home from a mosque to Wihda neighborhood in downtown Mosul .

- Tuesday , a squad of the Iraqi army killed a gunman in Mosul city and confiscated his car. . .

Diyala

- Wednesday afternoon, a roadside bomb targeted AlHay neighborhood ( downtown Baquba) near one of the quarters of the Sahwa [Awakening]council injuring two members of the Sahwa .

Kirkuk - Tuesday evening, a roadside bomb targeted the head of Kirkuk police operation centre, Colonel Yadgar Shukr Abdu Allah . . .

Basra

- Around 7 p.m., gunmen kidnapped an engineer ( Ali Mahmood ) from his house at the Basra international camp ( north west Basra), police said.

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Mr. Olmert, Tear Down this Wall!

The Egyptian government mounted a small demonstration of defiance of the Olmert government in Israel on Thursday. Palestinians destroyed the blast walls that artificially box them in to the tiny, slummy Gaza Strip and cut them off from their natural markets in Egypt. Perhaps a fourth of Gaza's population then flooded into the nearby Egyptian city of Rafah to buy food and supplies, breaking the Israeli blockade on these innocent civilians.

Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, appears to have ordered Egyptian troops not to interfere, though he did try to block Palestinians from traveling into Egypt from Rafah.

Helena Cobban has insight and analysis on this issue, blaming the fiasco in part on Bush's recent clumsy visit to the region.

See also Richard Silverstein.

And here is the video:


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935 False Statements that Led a Nation to War

The Center for Public Integrity has published a study finding that

'President George W. Bush and seven of his administration's top officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, made at least 935 false statements in the two years following September 11, 2001, about the national security threat posed by Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Nearly five years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, an exhaustive examination of the record shows that the statements were part of an orchestrated campaign that effectively galvanized public opinion and, in the process, led the nation to war under decidedly false pretenses.

On at least 532 separate occasions (in speeches, briefings, interviews, testimony, and the like), Bush and these three key officials, along with Secretary of State Colin Powell, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, and White House press secretaries Ari Fleischer and Scott McClellan, stated unequivocally that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (or was trying to produce or obtain them), links to Al Qaeda, or both. This concerted effort was the underpinning of the Bush administration's case for war. '

Although the study starts out in a neutral tone, as you read, it becomes clear that the authors think the database of administration statements they have compiled shows a deliberate pattern of misrepresentation.

The study won't create a lot of controversy, since the American people long ago concluded that BushCo had lied us into a destructive and dangerous quagmire of a war. But it is nice to see someone nail down the specifics of the Goebbels-like propaganda campaign that was run on us.

The report continues,

' # On August 26, 2002, in an address to the national convention of the Veteran of Foreign Wars, Cheney flatly declared: "Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction. There is no doubt he is amassing them to use against our friends, against our allies, and against us." In fact, former CIA Director George Tenet later recalled, Cheney's assertions went well beyond his agency's assessments at the time. Another CIA official, referring to the same speech, told journalist Ron Suskind, "Our reaction was, 'Where is he getting this stuff from?' "

# In the closing days of September 2002, with a congressional vote fast approaching on authorizing the use of military force in Iraq, Bush told the nation in his weekly radio address: "The Iraqi regime possesses biological and chemical weapons, is rebuilding the facilities to make more and, according to the British government, could launch a biological or chemical attack in as little as 45 minutes after the order is given. . . . This regime is seeking a nuclear bomb, and with fissile material could build one within a year." A few days later, similar findings were also included in a much-hurried National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction — an analysis that hadn't been done in years, as the intelligence community had deemed it unnecessary and the White House hadn't requested it.

# In July 2002, Rumsfeld had a one-word answer for reporters who asked whether Iraq had relationships with Al Qaeda terrorists: "Sure." In fact, an assessment issued that same month by the Defense Intelligence Agency (and confirmed weeks later by CIA Director Tenet) found an absence of "compelling evidence demonstrating direct cooperation between the government of Iraq and Al Qaeda." What's more, an earlier DIA assessment said that "the nature of the regime's relationship with Al Qaeda is unclear."

# On May 29, 2003, in an interview with Polish TV, President Bush declared: "We found the weapons of mass destruction. We found biological laboratories." But as journalist Bob Woodward reported in State of Denial, days earlier a team of civilian experts dispatched to examine the two mobile labs found in Iraq had concluded in a field report that the labs were not for biological weapons. The team's final report, completed the following month, concluded that the labs had probably been used to manufacture hydrogen for weather balloons.

# On January 28, 2003, in his annual State of the Union address, Bush asserted: "The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. Our intelligence sources tell us that he has attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes suitable for nuclear weapons production." Two weeks earlier, an analyst with the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research sent an email to colleagues in the intelligence community laying out why he believed the uranium-purchase agreement "probably is a hoax." '

Read the whole thing.

I first realized that the full propaganda apparatus had been deployed when I saw Donald Rumsfeld on television in April of 2003 actually denying that there was any mass looting in Iraq, and maintaining that CNN was looping one guy with a vase over and over again. How many vases can they have, he asked. I thought, "these are not the 'droids you're looking for."

See also Chalmers Johnson at Tomdispatch on "How to Sink America," an argument that Bush's profligate military spending is not unconnected to our economic crisis. Johnson's Nemesis is now in paperback.

Farideh Farhi at our collective Global Affairs blog on a new challenge to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from the Iranian parliament.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, letters of Bonaparte during his invasion of Palestine, then part of Ottoman Syria.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Barzani charges Michael Rubin with Libel

The USG Open Source Center translates a letter from Kurdistan Regional Authority leader Massoud Barzani slamming the Hawlati newspaper for having published in Kurdish an article by Neoconservative operative Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute, which had accused Barzani and Iraqi president Jalal Talabani of embezzling large sums of money. Barzani offers to give half of the money Rubin charged him with squirreling away to Rubin if the latter can give proof of his charges. There had been reports that Jalal Talabani was suing Hawlati for libel over the Rubin piece. Rubin is very close to the Turkish generals in Ankara, as part of his zeal for ensuring Turkey remains a close ally of Israel. The Richard Perle faction of Neoconservatives to which Rubin belongs has had lucrative consultancy deals with Turkey. By the way, Rubin served in Doug Feith's "Office of Special Plans" that played a role in generating the 935 falsehoods on the basis of which we went to war. The FBI has never properly investigated his activities in that regard.

Iraqi Kurdistan President's Office responds to article on his wealth
Hawlati
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Text . . .

Iraqi Kurdistan President's Office responds to article on his wealth

Text of report entitled: "Text of message from President Barzani's office"; published by independent Iraqi Kurdish newspaper Hawlati on 20 January

To the editor in-chief of Hawlati newspaper, Honourable Kak (honorific) Abd Arif:

Greetings and regards,

Hawlati newspaper published, on 13 January 2008, in issue No 378, a report by Michael Rubin in which he says that (Kurdistan Region President Mas'ud) Barzani possesses 2bn dollars and (the Iraqi President Jalal) Talabani possesses 400m dollars.

For your information, supported and financed by the enemies of Kurds, Michael Rubin's job in Washington is simply to give bad image of the Kurds. Therefore, what can you expect from somebody whose job is only to be in opposition to the Kurds?

The publication of the report, and in such a poisonous way, proves that you have good ties with Rubin. Therefore, we would like you to contact him again, in order for him to show us where the money is and then we are ready to give you and Michael Rubin half of the sum (1bn dollars) (original parenthesis as published).

It is not strange when Michael Rubin attacks the Kurdish leadership. The strange thing is your publication of the poison he has poured out. Whom do you serve by doing this?

(Issued by) The spokesman of President Barzani's office

(Description of Source: Al-Sulaymaniyah Hawlati in Sorani Kurdish -- weekly independent newspaper)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

2 US Troops Killed; 20 Injured in School Blast; Assassination Attempt Kills 18; Weekend Cult Casualty toll 278

On Tuesday morning in Iraq, a suicide bomber walked into a school in downtown Baquba and detonated his payload, killing a guard and wounding 20 students and teachers. Baquba, a city of 200,000, is the capital of the key Diyala Province that lies between Baghdad and Iran. It is a mixed province, some 60% Sunni Arab but with substantial Shiite and Kurdish populations. A Shiite provincial government and police rule the province.

See the last item today, below, for a horrific attack Monday on a school in a Diyala village, which appears to have destroyed it altogether.

A suicide bomber attempted to assassinate the security deputy of Salahuddin Province on Monday, blowing himself up inside a tent set up for a local wake, which the security official was attending. He escaped, but the bomb killed at least 18 and wounded 20 among the 70 mourners gathered on the occasion.

AP observes,

' the latest of a series of deadly attacks fast chipping away at the notion of a calmer Iraq. The bombing also gave credence to repeated assertions by the US military that the fight against Al-Qaeda in not over yet. Significantly, Monday's bombing was the third in as many days to take place in Sunni areas thought to be have been largely rid of Al-Qaeda militants.'

Meanwhile, Patrick Cockburn of The Independent reports that 278 persons were killed or wounded in the millenarian uprising this wweekend in Basra and Nasiriya.

He observes,

' It is a measure of the lack of information on what is happening outside central Baghdad that casualty figures vary widely with one source claiming that 97 died and 217 were wounded in Basra alone. '

What is clear is that Iraq is extremely violent and unstable and that there is no discernible political progress.

Craig and Marc Kielburger have good suggestions on "How the Iraq war's $2 trillion cost to U.S. could have been spent"

Jonathan Steele at the Guardian is writing about how clueless the British government was as it went into southern Iraq in 2002 - 2003. They had not had an embassy in Baghdad since the Gulf War, and do not seem to have known who the Sadr ayatollahs were or how powerful the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq was (it likely planned and led the spring, 1991 insurrection that temporarily threw off Baath rule).

The series is here: "Guys I'm afraid we haven't got a clue" and here: 'Britain as inept as US'.

The Reuters reports other political violence on Monday, or announced on Monday.

'ANBAR PROVINCE - A U.S. Marine was killed during combat operations in western Anbar province on Saturday, the U.S. military said.

BAGHDAD - One U.S. soldier was killed by a roadside bomb in Arab Jabour on Baghdad's southern outskirts, the U.S. military said. . . [This unfortunate death occurred despite the deployment of a heavily armored new vehicle, as the NYT explains here.

BAGHDAD - Three people were wounded by a roadside bomb which exploded after a U.S. patrol went by in eastern Baghdad's Baladiyat district, police said. . .

QAIYARA - Two people were killed and nine wounded by a bomb in a parked car targeting an Iraqi army patrol in the town of Qaiyara near Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR FALLUJA - Gunmen killed four members of a U.S.-backed neighbourhood police patrol and wounded two others in an attack on a checkpoint near Falluja, 50 km (30 miles) west of Baghdad, police said. Two of the gunmen were killed when police at the checkpoint returned fire.

McClatchy adds:

' Baghdad

An IED exploded targeting a US convoy near al Nosoor square west Baghdad around 8,00 am. No casualties reported.

Around 8,15 am, two mortar shells hit Owereeg industrial area south Baghdad causing no casualties. . .

Two road side bombs (2 bottles filled with explosive materials) exploded near al Qubbanchi mosque in Harthyah neighborhood south Baghdad around 1,00 pm. No casualties reported.

Police found seven anonymous bodies in Baghdad today. . .

Sulaimaniyah

Gunmen killed attacked a house in Kalar village 140 kms south of Sulaimaniyah province yesterday night killing a 35 years old mother and her 13 years old daughter. . .

Diyala

Two policemen were wounded in an IED explosion that targeted their patrol in Muqdadiyah town east of Baquba city today afternoon.

Gunmen destroyed with explosives Mecca al Mukarrama primary school and a house in al Malali village, part of Wajihiyah district east of Baquba city today afternoon. The gunmen burnt also al-Malali mosque.'

The NYT profiles intrepid war blogger Michael Yon. It is nice to see his 'citizen journalism' recognized by the mainstream. (Isn't that a fancy phrase for 'blogger'?)
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Dominates Testy Dem Debate

Iraq as an issue was back front and center in Iraq on Monday in the South Carolina presidential debate among the Democratic candidates.

Barack Obama complained that his record of opposing the Iraq War had been distorted by Bill Clinton, who had called the image of steadfast consistency on Obama's part in that regard a 'fairy tale.'

Clinton replied that Obama took down his anti-war speech from his web site and voted several times to fund the war once he was in the senate.

[I don't believe either of these criticisms is fair. No Democrat voted actually to continue the war. They voted for the only budget they could get past the Republicans. Clinton is just desperate to remove Barack's advantage with the left of the party, which is that he has all along been far more anti-war than she. If her point was that once he was in the senate, Obama was constrained by political reality just as she was, she should say that rather than suggesting that he wasn't steadfastly anti-war. Moreover, there is a difference between being forced to vote a budget that contains things you don't like and actively voting for things like war authorization and Kyl-Lieberman.]

All three candidates pledged to end the war if elected, though none seemed eager to just pull up stakes and get out immediately and risk all hell breaking loose. This is a good sign, since getting out of Iraq in such a way that it doesn't send the Oil Gulf up in flames won't be easy.

Their consensus was that the troop escalation or 'surge' hasn't really worked since its goal was to create space for political compromise, and not much of that is in evidence.

The low point was when Clinton and Obama smeared each other with 'Walmart' and 'slumlord,' respectively.

I think Obama won the debate on points.

A transcript of Monday's debate is here.

The Iraq-related bits are here:

'OBAMA: George Bush has consistently skewed our tax code to the wealthy. He has squandered billions of dollars in a war that I believe should never have been authorized and should have never been waged. . .

OBAMA: And I think that part of what the people are looking for right now is somebody who's going to solve problems and not resort to the same typical politics that we've seen in Washington.

(APPLAUSE)

That is something that I hear all across the country. So when Senator Clinton says -- or President Clinton says that I wasn't opposed to the war from the start or says it's a fairytale that I opposed the war, that is simply not true.'

and this:

'Clinton: 'And I want to be just very explicit about this. We are not, neither my campaign nor anyone associated with it, are in any way saying you did not oppose the war in Iraq.

CLINTON: You did. You gave a great speech in 2002 opposing the war in Iraq. That was not what the point of our criticism was.

It was after having given that speech, by the next year the speech was off your Web site. By the next year, you were telling reporters that you agreed with President Bush in his conduct of the war. And by the next year, when you were in the Senate, you were voting to fund the war time after time after time.

BLITZER: All right.

CLINTON: So it was more about the distinction between words and action. And I think that is a fair assessment for voters to make. '

Then there is this:

' JOHNS: Senator Clinton, on the Iraq question, we're here in South Carolina. It's a big military state with a lot of military families. Last week, U.S. military commanders on the ground in Iraq said that Baghdad is now 75 percent secured. There's also important signs of political progress, including de-Baathification, which was basically long awaited. That, of course, was a big benchmark.

Last week, you said the next president will, quote, "have a war to end in Iraq." In light of the new military and political progress on the ground there in Iraq, are you looking to end this war or win it?

CLINTON: I'm looking to bring our troops home, starting within 60 days of my becoming president, and here's why, Joe. I have the greatest admiration for the American military. I serve on the Senate Armed Services Committee. I've been to Iraq three times. I've met with the leaders of the various factions. But there is no military solution, and our young men and women should not remain as the referees of their conflict.

I believe what you're seeing happen is twofold. Of course the surge, the so-called surge, was able to pacify certain parts of Iraq. If we put enough of our men and women and equipment in, we're going to be able to have some tactical military success. But the whole purpose of the surge was to force the Iraqi government to move quickly towards the kind of resolution that only it can bring about.

I think what is motivating the Iraqi government is the debate in the political campaign here. They know they will no longer have a blank check from George Bush, that I will with draw troops from Iraq. And I believe that will put even more pressure on the Iraqis to finally make the decisions that they have to make.

It is not going to be easy. Withdrawing troops is dangerous. That's why I've been working to make sure that we knew all of the various steps we would have to take, because it's not just bringing our troops and equipment home. We have more than 100,000 civilians there, working for the embassy, working for businesses, working for charities.

We have a lot of Iraqis who sided with us, translators and drivers who put their lives on the line for American military forces. So this is complicated, but I'm committed to withdraw our troops and to put the Iraqi government on notice that their time is running out.

CLINTON: And they have to make these tough decisions.'

And then there was this outbreak of unity on ending the war and getting the troops out as carefully as possible:

' BLITZER: I'm going to let Senator Obama respond, too.

But, Senator Edwards, Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, he supported the surge from the beginning. I think all three of you opposed the surge from the beginning. He says now the surge is working, there's military progress, the level of violence has gone down, and that the United States must not surrender in Iraq. It must win that war in Iraq.

Why do you believe Senator McCain is wrong?

EDWARDS: He's wrong because George Bush himself said the entire reason for the surge was to create an environment for political progress. Everyone from the Iraq Study Group, to even Bush recognized -- and if Bush recognizes it, man, it's really got to be out there.

(LAUGHTER)

EDWARDS: Even President Bush recognizes that unless the Sunni and Shia reach some political reconciliation, there cannot be stability in Iraq. And the problem with this definition and evaluation of where the progress has been made is that there has been no meaningful political progress.

There has been a little bit, in fairness. A little bit, but very little. And I don't think it changes anything.

The one thing I would say is -- and I would actually like for both of them to have a chance to respond to is this -- what I have said very clearly, all of us has said, we would end the war. And I don't have any doubt that all of us are committed to that, I don't doubt that. But how aggressively and how quickly is an important question.

And I have said in the first year that I am president, I will have all combat troops out of Iraq. All combat missions will end in Iraq, and there will be no permanent military bases in Iraq.

(APPLAUSE)

EDWARDS: I have not heard -- now, admittedly, just to be fair, I don't hear everything they say on the campaign trail, but I have not heard either of them say that definitively. So I would be interested in knowing whether they will commit to having all combat troops out and ending combat missions in the first year.

BLITZER: Senator Obama?

OBAMA: John, what I have said, and I've said repeatedly, is I want to be as careful getting out as we were careless getting in, but I want to make sure that we get all our combat troops out as quickly as we can safely. Now, the estimates are maybe that's two brigades per month. At that pace it would be some time in 2009 that we had our combat troops out, depending on whether Bush follows through on his commitment to draw down from the surge.

We don't know that yet, but understand what's at stake here. John is exactly right that the question is, how do we create a stable Iraqi government where our troops are not required to remain permanent bases in -- and a permanent occupation in Iraq?

We are spending $9 billion to $10 billion every month. That's money that could be going right here in South Carolina to lay broadband lines in rural communities, to put kids back to school.

And so when John McCain says we'll be there for 50 or 60 or 100 years, it is not just the loss of life, which is obviously the most tragic aspect of it, it's also the fact that financially it is unsustainable. We will have spent $2 trillion at least, it's estimated, by the time this whole thing is over. That's enough to have rebuilt every road, bridge, hospital, school in America, and still have money left over.

(APPLAUSE)

BLITZER: All right.

OBAMA: But just one last point I want to make.

We are seeing Al Qaida stronger now than at any time since 2001. That is a significant threat that has to be dealt with. Because we have been distracted, we have ended up seeing a more dangerous situation, and so we are not -- this is not just a matter of who is right and who is wrong about having gone to war or the surge. It's also, how do we deal with the future threats? And as long as we're bogged down in Iraq, we are not going to be able to deal with those future threats.

BLITZER: Senator Clinton, do you want to respond to Senator Edwards asking you whether you're ready to commit to all combat troops being out of Iraq within a year?

CLINTON: What I have said is that I will move as quickly as possible. I hope to have nearly all out within a year.

We don't know what we're going to inherent from President Bush, but there is a big problem looming on the horizon that we had better pay attention to, and that is President Bush is intent upon negotiating a long-term agreement with Iraq which would have permanent bases, permanent troop presence. And he claims he does not need to come to the United States Congress to get permission, he only needs to go to the Iraqi parliament.

That is his stated public position. He was recently in the region, and it is clear that he intends to push forward on this to try to bind the United States government and his successor to his failed policy.

I have been strongly opposed to that. We should not be planning permanent bases and long-term troop commitments.

CLINTON: Obviously, we've got to rein in...

(APPLAUSE)

... President Bush. And I've proposed legislation and I know that members of the Congressional Black Caucus are looking at this, as well. We need legislation in a hurry which says, "No, Mr. Bush, you are the president of the United States of America. You cannot bind our country without coming to the United States Congress." This is a treaty...

(APPLAUSE)

... that would have to be presented and approved, and it will not be. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Israeli Victory over Asthmatics, Newborns in Gaza

The humanitarian impact of Israel's electricity blockade of the Gaza Strip. Raw sewage in the streets, which will soon seep into houses; asthmatics choking; hospitals on the verge of switching off life support.



Robert Malley of the International Crisis Group is eloquent in the Boston Globe/ IHT on why this Israeli tactic is self-defeating.

But more important than whether it is practical or not, it is a war crime.

"Gaza Strip: Crisis worsens despite Israel's new fuel pledge". AKI reports:

' Amid predictions that more than a million people would soon be without safe drinking water, there were reports of raw sewage spilling into the streets because there was no electricity to fuel the local pump station.

The Gaza power plant shut down its two working turbines on Sunday, leaving much of Gaza in darkness, after Israel closed border crossings on Friday.

Hospitals dependent on vital diesel supplies were also predicting that they would run out of fuel within hours and then be forced to make crucial life or death decisions for their patients.

John Ging, director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Gaza said the civilian population was living in "abject misery" and had been stripped of their human dignity.

"People here in Gaza have been living in abject misery and hardship now for a long time," Ging told the Arab TV network, Al-Jazeera. "On top of that they are living in darkness.

"You have to see how miserable the situation is. The civilian population is under occupation. It is collective punishment - they are victims."

"What we need is action and it starts with civilians." '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

King: War Cannot Achieve Even a Negative Good

Martin Luther King will be honored today throughout America as a champion of racial justice and racial harmony. That is a pivotal legacy for the United States of America, which for 87 long years was built on the lawful enslavement of one race by another, and for another century practiced the lawful Apartheid of Jim Crow.

But he was not the youngest person ever to receive the Nobel Prize only because of his work on civil rights and integration. He was also a profound thinker in the tradition of Mahatma Gandhi on peace. Not peace in the abstract, but peace as a practical political tool. Not only peace as a social movement but peace as a method in international relations.

King critiqued the typical use of "peace" by politicians as a distant ideal toward which they are working, even while they bomb and massacre and slaughter. In his Christmas Sermon, December 24, 1967, King made this point:

' And the leaders of the world today talk eloquently about peace. Every time we drop our bombs in North Vietnam, President Johnson talks eloquently about peace.

What is the problem?

They are talking about peace as a distant goal, as an end we seek, but one day we must come to see that peace is not merely a distant goal we seek, but that it is a means by which we arrive at that goal.

We must pursue peaceful ends through peaceful means.

All of this is saying that, in the final analysis, means and ends must cohere because the end is preexistent in the means, and ultimately destructive means cannot bring about constructive ends.'

The reply to such an assertion from politicians, generals and others is that peace as method (rather than as distant ideal) is impractical. That the enemy is deadly and determined and will slaughter us if we attempt to deal with him through the method of peace.

But King came to this conclusion at the height of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union had the US targeted with thousands of nuclear warheads. He came to this conclusion when the Vietnam War was raging. He was not naive. He was not a babe in the woods. He was not an impractical dreamer. He was a seer, and he saw the end of war.

He saw the end of war not because war could never achieve any good. He recognized that it had in recent history accomplished what he called a "negative good," of, say, keeping us from having to live under the jackboot of a tyrant. But the sheer destructiveness of contemporary warfare began to raise doubts in his mind, even as a young man in the late 1950s, as to whether this instrumental use of war to achieve a negative good was any longer possible.

Let us just review American wars since King began to have those doubts. There was Vietnam, where the US lost 58,000 dead and tens of thousands more wounded, where it spent billions and as a result suffered from an inflationary spiral, and where it lost. It did not lose, as the Right fondly imagines, because of a stab in the back by weak-kneed civilian politicians.

The US lost in Vietnam because it fought on the wrong side of history, because it took up a French colonial project of suppressing Vietnamese Left Nationalism. The US killed perhaps as many as 2 million Vietnamese peasants, which surely counts as a genocide, all to no avail, because the war was poorly chosen. Ironically, Dwight Eisenhower had told the French to give up on a similar fruitless war in Algeria, because he could see that it could not be won and risked pushing the Algerians into the arms of the communists. Three or four years later Kennedy began getting us more deeply involved in precisely the same sort of war, succeeding the French. My guess is that it was because the North Vietnamese had already embraced communism; if they had been bourgeois nationalists like the Algerians, even Washington would have had more sense than to get involved. But what that generation of Cold Warriors could not see was that "communism" could often just be a banner for nationalism.

Then there were Reagan's covert wars in Nicaragua, El Salvador and Afghanistan. Reagan won temporarily in Nicaragua, at the price of running nun-killing death squads. But if you check, you'll see that Daniel Ortega is president of Nicaragua, and left-leaning regimes of the sort Reagan attempted to destabilize are in power in Venezuela, Bolivia and Brazil. Reagan's covert wars in Latin America caused a lot of trouble, harmed a lot of people, and had no long term success. In part that is because politics wells up from social and economic conditions, and is not just the creation of some individual an imperial power installs in power.

As for Reagan's Jihad in Afghanistan, it clearly was a world-historical blunder. Had the communists stayed in power in Afghanistan, their regime would probably have just evolved after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 into a Kazakhstan-style state. Not a democracy, but stable enough and with schooling for all and an investment in development.

Instead, Reagan and his Saudi and Pakistani allies funneled the lion's share of their covert war aid to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the most radical of the Mujahidin leaders. They forced the Soviet Union out, and destroyed the Afghanistan communists, but the ultimate result was a) the rise of al-Qaeda and b) the rise of the Taliban.

Reagan won the Afghanistan war, but it was a Pyrrhic victory that came around to bite the US on the posterior on September 11.

So you have to ask whether any of these wars -- Vietnam, Nicaragua, or Afghanistan-- should have been fought. Either we lost, or the victory was temporary, or we contributed to a blowback that hit our society on 9/11.

And of course, then there is the Iraq War.

But first, let's consider what King said about the negative good a war might have accomplished in the past. It is from "Pilgrimage to Nonviolence" in Strength to Love, 1958:

' More recently I have come to see the need for the method of nonviolence in international relations.

Although I was not yet convinced of its efficacy in conflicts between nations, I felt that while war could never be a positive good, it could serve as a negative good by preventing the spread and growth of an evil force. War, horrible as it is, might be preferable to surrender to a totalitarian system.

But now I believe that the potential destructiveness of modern weapons totally rules out the possibility of war ever again achieving a negative good.

If we assume that mankind has a right to survive then we must find an alternative to war and destruction. '

And given the dismal record of the failure of US wars since King wrote that in 1958, he may well have been prescient.

The Iraq War failed for many reasons, but one important cause was that contemporary warfare is too destructive to achieve political and nation-building goals. The destructiveness of the US war helped to provoke the various Iraqi insurgencies. The killing of 17 civilians at a protest in Falluja in April of 2003 was the beginning of the end of Falluja. In November and December of 2004, the US military damaged 2/3s of the city's buildings and emptied it of its population, except for the unknown number it killed (hundreds? thousands?)

And for all the subsequent frantic US military actions, the US has not put humpty dumpty back together again, and almost certainly cannot.

The narrative of the warmongers is that war has become ever more precise, ever more useful in achieving specific diplomatic and political goals.

Need to remove a dictator? Well here is some Shock and Awe.

Need to restore human rights? Here, destroy this city to save it.

Fighting terrorism? You just need a hundred thousand more troops with more M16s!

But actually the nonviolent means of dealing with the Saddam Hussein regime turn out to have been completely effective. The United Nations inspections had actually worked, something that no one in the United States or Britain seems to want to acknowledge, even with all we now know. The inspections really did force Saddam to dismantle his WMD programs and destroy his stockpiles. The economic sanctions were useless for regime change. But as a means of destroying Saddam's power to menace his neighbors, they were completely effective. Too effective, to the extent that they ended up harming children and civilians.

The 2003 Iraq War was not necessary if its goal was to remove the Saddam regime as a threat to US or regional security. Iraq had been disarmed and contained.

And, the 2003 Iraq War was not effective if the goal had been to restore civil society and bring democracy. Iraq lacked the essential social and political prerequisites for such a transition, and the US military is a military, not a police force.

Let us consider whether King wasn't right in 1958, and whether contemporary warfare isn't too destructive, too blunt an instrument to achieve even negative good any longer.

Far more al-Qaeda operatives have been busted through good police work than were ever captured on a battlefield. And, the brutality of the Iraq war has created hundreds of little Bin Ladens, as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak predicted it would.

Three main sorts of security challenges face the United States.

There is the rivalry with other nuclear powers, where war cannot be used as a tool of diplomacy because it would be far too destructive.

There is conflict between the US and small weak third world annoyances such as Iran. What the Iraq War should have taught us is that elective war is a horrible policy tool for dealing with such conflicts.

And there is the problem of terrorism, which cannot be fought with big conventional militaries. The attempt to do so just provokes insurgencies that grow potentially even more formidable.

Bush and Cheney keep imagining that they are in 1928 or 1942 or 1947. Their mindset is that of the first half of the twentieth century. They are men of the past.

Martin Luther King was a man of the future. He saw clearly that humankind has a choice. It is the choice between continuing to wage war, and surviving as a species. King was also a man in a hurry. He did not have much time. Neither do we.

It is time to wrap up the Iraq War and to, as carefully and deliberately as possible, end the US military presence in Iraq. It is not a Japan or a Germany after WW II, both of which feared the Soviet Union and so could put up with foreign bases as protection. Iraqis fear no one, such that they would accept permanent bases. The Middle East is a postcolonial region inhospitable to the humiliations of foreign domination, which its peoples struggled hard and long to end.

And it is time to take the elective war option off the table, with regard to Iran, and to the Sudan, and to Somalia, and all the others on the Neoconservative hit list.

War does not work. It is too destructive. It creates too much blowback, as with Afghanistan and al-Qaeda. It leaves too much of the city destroyed, that it meant to save, as with Falluja. It cannot midwife rights or democracy, it is too gross, too indiscriminate, too brutal for that purpose. It produces Abu Ghraib and Falluja, not Monticello.

The US needs a defensive military, insofar as it can contribute to protecting us from asymmetrical or conventional challenges. But launching a war against a country that did not attack us, that is immoral and stupid. Let's listen to Dr. King and never do that again.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Israeli Atrocity on Gaza Civilians

It is a perfect time for the Israeli government to commit a war crime on the miserable civilians of the Gaza Strip. The US primary season has created a news blackout on US television about foreign news (apparently the public of the world's sole superpower is not estimated by corporate news executives to be able to handle more than one story). So most Americans will never even know that the Israelis have cut off fuel to Gaza's power plant, depriving tens of thousands of people of electricity.

I sympathize with Israeli civilians who have been subjected to illegal bombardment by Hamas. (That bombardment has not recently resulted in loss of life, but it is traumatizing, especially for children.) But one has to ask whether the Olmert government has behaved toward Gazans in such a way as to try to achieve peace. (The unilateral withdrawal of colonists has been followed by frequent bombardments and incursions and arrests, political meddling and a placing of the whole Strip in a kind of geo-penitentiary.) Israeli deployment of excessive force in recent weeks has resulted in dozens of deaths in Gaza. Even if military action were justified, it is only legitimate for the Israelis to punish Hamas fighters doing the firing, and big bombs should not be dropped near civilian apartment buildings. Don't they, like, have SWAT teams?

Just a reminder that electricity is life and death for some people. The low is 48 degrees F. tonight; it is cold without electricity. And another reminder that the children of Gaza, who I suspect are 2/3s of the population, haven't done anything wrong, to be punished by this blockade:

' Health Ministry official Dr. Moaiya Hassanain warned that the fuel cutoff would cause a health catastrophe. "We have the choice to either cut electricity on babies in the maternity ward or heart surgery patients or stop operating rooms," he said.'

Here is what wikipedia has to say about the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949. Note that "protected persons" are just non-combatants, i.e. innocent civilians such as children, women and unarmed or injured men:

' Article 33. No protected person may be punished for an offence he or she has not personally committed. Collective penalties and likewise all measures of intimidation or of terrorism are prohibited.

Pillage is prohibited.

Reprisals against protected persons and their property are prohibited.

Under the 1949 Geneva Conventions collective punishments are a war crime. Article 33 states: "No protected person may be punished for an offense he or she has not personally committed," and "collective penalties and likewise all measures of intimidation or of terrorism are prohibited."

By collective punishment, the drafters of the Geneva Conventions had in mind the reprisal killings of World Wars I and II. In the First World War, Germans executed Belgian villagers in mass retribution for resistance activity. In World War II, Nazis carried out a form of collective punishment to suppress resistance. Entire villages or towns or districts were held responsible for any resistance activity that took place there. The conventions, to counter this, reiterated the principle of individual responsibility. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) Commentary to the conventions states that parties to a conflict often would resort to "intimidatory measures to terrorize the population" in hopes of preventing hostile acts, but such practices "strike at guilty and innocent alike. They are opposed to all principles based on humanity and justice."

Additional Protocol II of 1977 explicitly forbids collective punishment. . . '

Wikipedia is just the common sense of the blogosphere. The Geneva Conventions were intended to avoid a repeat of the atrocities of WW II.

The Israelis are going to have to live in the midst of the Palestinian people for the rest of the century. The Palestinians are not going away. The Israelis cannot wish them away or intimidate them into accepting statelessness, dire poverty, foreign domination and a condition analogous to slavery.

Moreover, Israel itself requires, in order to flourish, extensive economic and other relations with the outside world. If it is going to behave like this, the outside world will become less and less willing to have those relations. The Israeli Right is their country's own worst enemy.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq is Still a Bad Bargain

Andrew Bacevich eviscerates the Iraq War party with this passionate and clear-sighted essay on 'the Surge to Nowhere' in WaPo. He points out that the real motivation behind last year's troop escalation was to avoid popular outrage building in the US electorate to the point where the troops were pulled out. He observes that the argument for the 'success' of the 'surge' is purely a tactical one. When viewed from the vantage point of grand strategy, the Iraq War is as much a failure as it has always been.

If someone came to you six years ago and said that for only $2 trillion, you could have for your colony a burned out country, a failed state, and a semi-permanent incubator of terrorism and hatred against the US, would you have ponied up the money? That's what you've got, and that is what it cost you. Detroit could have used some of that money. New Orleans could have used some of that money. Appalachia has lots of schools that need to be painted.

The argument could be made that Israel is safer with Saddam Hussein out of power. But that argument does not hold water. Current Iraqi leaders such as Muqtada al-Sadr and Adnan Dulaimi are not less anti-Israel than Saddam, and it turns out he did not have WMD with which to attack Israel anyway. The Shiites of Iraq will certainly side with Hizbullah against Israel, which may actually mean that Israel is less secure now than before. Moreover, to have substantial turmoil on their doorstep just cannot be good for the Israelis.

You could argue that US petroleum corporations are now well placed to bid on Iraqi oil development. But what with doomsday cults planning a takeover of the petroleum facilities, it will be some time before it is safe for US corporations to operate in Iraq. China and Holland (Shell) are being looked upon favorably by the Iraqi government as investors.

And anyway, if the US government had thrown the $2 trillion and more that Iraq will end up costing at green energy development, both we and the earth would have been far better off. At a time when the US military is paying 60,000 Sunni Arab Iraqis $300 a month each not to fight us, it is pretty hard to justify letting the US working class sink, without any government help, into penury and homelessness in the face of the mortgage crisis and the recession. The Iraq War may or may not be good for Houston. It is certainly bad for Iraq and for everyone else.

The current round of optimism about Iraq in the Washington press corps will eventually falter against the country's hard realities, just as have previous such rounds. Or maybe worrying about Iraq and continued US troop deaths there is so yesterday for the punditocracy in DC.

The optimism is a planted story, a sleight of hand produced by looking at tactics rather than at strategy, or by making comparative statements (Iraq has less violence today than it did in the volcanic period a year ago) which obscure absolute reality (Iraq is very unstable and dangerous).

What the snake oil merchants like Fred Kagan and Bill Kristol (both of them hard right Zionists) are really saying is that if you just give them $2 trillion more, and are willing to expend another 12,000 killed and wounded American young people, boy do they have a deal on a neo-colony for you.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice-- can't get fooled again.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Soldier Killed; 21 Dead in Ashura Violence; OSC: Messianic Cult Expected Appearance of Promised One

Another US soldier was killed on Saturday, bringing January's total to 23 -- already as much as in all of December. Street battles and machine gun fire rang out for a second day in Basra and Nasiriya as Iraqi security forces battled Supporters of the Promised One, a Shiite cult that is now reported to have been aiming to take over the Basra petroleum facilities. Aljazeera had footage of the fighting that apparently most US news networks were unwilling to obtain. A further messianic plot was broken up in Hilla. Shiite pilgrims were targeted in several places in Iraq by Sunni Arab militants, including in Tel Afar in the north. And, there was a recrudescence of violence in al-Anbar province, with 6 killed in Ramadi and bodies found near Fallujah. Some 21 persons were killed on Saturday, and dozens wounded. Reuters gives further details on political violence for Saturday:

'BAGHDAD - One U.S soldier was killed on Friday when a roadside bomb exploded near his vehicle during operations north of Baghdad, the U.S military said in a statement. . .

RAMADI - Six policemen were killed and 13 wounded when two suicide bombers attacked policemen assembled for evening roll-call at a police station in the town of Albu Ubaid west of Ramadi, police said.

BAGHDAD - Two people were killed and 10 wounded when a bomb hidden inside a plastic bag exploded outside a restaurant in Baghdad's Sadr City district, police said.

BAGHDAD - Two bodies were found dumped around Baghdad, police said.

TAL AFAR - Seven Shi'ites returning from Ashura ceremonies were killed in a Katyusha rocket attack in Tal Afar, 420 km (260 miles) northwest of Baghdad, police Brigadier General Najim Abdullah said. Another 17 were wounded and women and children were among the casualties. . .

HILLA - Police detained 26 members of the Shi'ite "Soldiers of Heaven" cult in a pre-dawn raid on a house in Hilla, 100 km (60 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. Sporadic fighting continued between members of the cult and Iraqi security forces in the southern cities of Basra and Nassiriya but there was no information on fresh casualties.

KIRKUK - A bomb hidden inside a trash can killed two Shi'ite Ashura pilgrims and wounded seven others in Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

KIRKUK - Two militants were killed in Kirkuk when a roadside bomb they were trying to bury exploded, police said.

FALLUJA - Police found two bodies with gunshot wounds near Falluja, 50 km (30 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.' . . '

The USG Open Source Center translates Iraqi television broadcasts giving information about the uprising of the messianic Supporters of the Promised One cult in the Shiite south:

'Al-Sharqiyah, Al-Iraqiyah Roundup: Situation Under Control in Basra, Al-Nasiriyah
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, January 19, 2008

Within its 0700 GMT newscast, Al-Sharqiyah carries the following reports . . .

-- "Iraqi Police and Army forces in Basra once again quelled the insurgency of a group of rioters in the Basra Corniche area in Shat al-Arab. Speaking to Al-Sharqiyah this morning, the Basra Police director said that his forces quelled the insurgency in less than two hours and arrested a new group of rioters, who tried to control the Basra Corniche area. Iraqi Police and Army forces in Basra Governorate in southern Iraq regained full control over the city following clashes between Iraqi forces and a group of rioters who try to fulfill their religious vision that Imam al-Mahdi will reappear on 10 Muharram. Sources in the governorate said that the situation in the city is under control due to the bravery of the Iraqi Police and Army forces, which managed to stop violence in the city. The sources added that the coalition forces responded to the army and police commanders' request of surrounding the rioters in the city, pointing out that the coalition planes, contrary to what was reported by some media outlets, did not bombard any target but rather backed the Iraqi forces by flying at low altitude to only disperse the rioters."

-- "Major General Abd-al-Jalil Khalaf, director of Basra Police, said that small armed groups tried to destabilize security in Basra through targeting the visitors heading for Karbala to perform the Ashura rituals. Speaking to Al-Sharqiyah over phone, Khalaf said that the security forces in the governorate repelled the rioters and restored security to the city in a record time. He pointed out that his forces arrested scores of gunmen, who admitted to committing crimes, and found important documents in their possession, without giving details about the content of these documents. "

Within its 0800 GMT newscast, Al-Sharqiyah carries the following reports: -- "Iraqi security sources today said that at least 66 people, including 50 members of an armed group called the Promised Ahmad al-Yamani Group, were killed during clashes with Iraqi security forces in the cities of Basra and Al-Nasiriyah in southern Iraq yesterday, according to the latest death toll. The sources said that the clashes with this group, which believes in the reappearance of Imam al-Mahdi, peace be upon him, on the day of Ashura, resulted in the death of 16 members of security forces, including a number of senior officers in the Iraqi Police and Army. The security sources also said that 35 armed members of the Promised Ahmad al-Yamani Group and two policemen, including a colonel, were killed in the clashes in Basra. The sources added that 18 armed members of the same group were killed, 12 were wounded, and 25 others were arrested in Al-Nasiriyah. The sources also added that two policemen were killed this morning by a sniper in the besieged Al-Salihiyah neighborhood in central Basra."

Within its 1100 GMT newscast, Al-Sharqiyah carries the following report: -- "The security situation in the city of Al-Nasiriyah in southern Iraq deteriorated once again last night after Iraqi forces suffered a setback in areas in the city. Intelligence reports said that battles started again in the Al-Salihiyah area after the armed Al-Yamani Group, which reorganized itself, according to reports and eyewitnesses, inflicted losses on Iraqi forces in areas in northern Al-Nasiriyah. Sources said that Naji Rustum, the commander of the Special Operations, was killed in these clashes, in addition to the death of Zamil Rumayid, head of Dhi Qar Governorate Intelligence Department, and a number of officers in an ambush set up by gunmen."

Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic, government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network, carries within its 1200 GMT newscast the following reports: -- "A statement issued by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's office said that the security forces managed to fully control the situation in Basra and Al-Nasiriyah. The statement said: "Our security and military apparatuses managed to fully control and restore calm to the governorates of Basra and Al-Nasiriyah. A number of deviant people, who assaulted the Ashura processions and tried to take control over a government institution in the governorate of Basra , were arrested. Members of the same deviant group assaulted the Special Operations commander and a number of his aides in the governorate of Al-Nasiriyah. Our security apparatuses managed to disband a deviant network and arrested a large number of its members, who had plans to kill scholars in the governorates of Holy Al-Najaf and Holy Karbala. What happened in Basra and Al-Nasiriyah is only what is left of a suspicious criminal scheme. This deviant group, which tries to act under the name of the religion, has become known to the sons of our people, who cooperated with our armed forces in thwarting its evil schemes. This deviant group tried to destabilize security in the southern governorates of our dear Iraq."

-- " National Security Adviser Muwaffaq al-Rubay'i asserted the success of the security plans set to protect the visitors of the holy shrines on the occasion of the anniversary of the martyrdom of Imam Al-Husayn, peace be upon him. During his meeting with a number of security commanders, Al-Rubay'i said that the southern governorates are witnessing a state of calm and stability after the Iraqi security forces managed to fully control the governorates of Basra and Dhi Qar."

[Within its 0700 GMT newscast, Al-Sharqiyah carries the following reports . . .]

. . . -- "National Security Minister Shirwan al-Wa'ili said that the situation in Karbala is stable, adding that the city's entrances and exits are controlled by security forces. Speaking to Al-Sharqiyah over phone, Al-Wa'ili said that the incidents in Basra and Al-Nasiriyah did not affect the Ashura rituals."

-- "National Security Adviser Dr Muwaffaq al-Rubay'i said that he is in good condition and has not been harmed in the attack carried out by gunmen on the Al-Jawadayin Husayniyah (Shiite mosque) in the Al-Shu'lah area in western Baghdad. Speaking to Al-Sharqiyah over phone, Al-Rubay'i described the gunmen who perpetrated the attack as a deviant group with destructive beliefs that have nothing to do with Islam, saying that it is responsible for what happened in Al-Shu'lah. He added that what took place was not an attempt on his life since he was in the husayniyah along with Shaykh Muhammad Jawad al-Safi and a large number of people participating in the Ashura rituals. Meanwhile, intelligence sources said that Iraqi Interior Minister Jawad al-Bulani came to the site of the assassination attempt in the Al-Shu'lah area, adding that some 60 people, divided into three groups, tried to attack the national security adviser while he was inside the Al-Jawadayin husayniyah.

. . . Dubai Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic, independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, {is} run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic-language daily Al-Zaman . . .'
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Saturday Reading

As Clinton and Romney win the Nevada primaries, Justin Elliot asks at Mother Jones why the leading candidates don't have more to say about crucial Middle East policy, including Israel-Palestine issues.

The new issue of Arab Media and Society is available online. It is an exciting journal, and this crop of articles is especially germane to our various crises.

Charles Smith has more on Bush and the Palestine issue.

Barnett Rubin weighs in on the issue of whether Afghanistan poppy cultivation can be fought through simple forced eradication or whether it is wrought up with livelihoods.

Rubin also points to recent important pieces on the Pakistan crisis.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

80 Dead in Clashes with Millenarian Cult; Sadrists threaten to end Freeze on JAM; Al-Hakim Criticizes al-Maliki

The instability of the Iraqi south was on display Friday, as a doomsday cult attacked police and religious mourners on the eve of Ashura', the holiest day of the Shiite Islamic calendar. The clashes in Basra and Nasiriya left at least 80 dead and 90 wounded according to the LAT.

The cities were under curfew Friday night, as over 2 million Shiite pilgrims gathered in the shrine city of Karbala to commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Husayn, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad.

The initial clashes were not so important in themselves, since the Mahdist group involved appears to be quite small. But they demonstrate how bad security really is in Iraq, and what a morass the Democrats are likely to inherit. The only way I can make sense of the allegation that the fighting spread to 75% of Basra districts is that other groups joined in the attacks on police checkpoints, beyond just the Mahdists. And, the sectarians seem to have put up an impressive fight in Nasiriya, where they killed and wounded officers of the Iraqi security forces.

A group called Ansar al-Mahdi (Supporters of the Promised One), which may or may not be the same as or related to the Army of Heaven cult that attacked Najaf in January of 2007, engaged Iraqi police and army forces in two major southern cities. The disturbances are said to have affected 75% of Basra neighborhoods and to have left some 50 dead and dozens wounded. Basra, population 1.5 million, is Iraq's major port and the place from which its petroleum is exported. A security collapse there would deeply affect the whole country.

Al-Qabas reports in Arabic that the Supporters of the Promised One attacked and took control of a police checkpoint in Basra, then set it ablaze. Eyewitnesses told the Kuwait News Agency (KUNA)that the checkpoint stood at the Jumhuriya intersection in downtown Basra. The cultists killed three Iraqi soldiers and several civilian bystanders.

In the nearby al-Janinah neighborhood in Jumhuriya district, the zealots wounded two policemen and then took over their checkpoint, burning it down.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that Basra police chief Abdul Jalil Khalaf said that fighting also broke out in al-Andalus quarter in central Basra. He maintained that Iraqi police had killed Abu Mustafa al-Ansari, the alleged leader of the Basra uprising. Khalaf had ordered an assault on the sect's headquarters. After that, the disturbances spread to other districts of the city, including Jumuhuriya, Janinah and Jabaliya.

Eyewitnesses in Jabaliya who participated in processions honoring Imam Husayn said that the Supporters of the Promised One killed two traffic cops and kidnapped a third who had been wounded in a police car in a confrontation with the cultists near the Gulf Flour Co. They reported that the Supporters then commandeered six emergency rescue vehicles and two police cars.

The cultists occupied the Oil Institute building and a hospital in Zahra district. Iraqi troops (presumably of the 14th Division) then deployed attack helicopters to strike at the Husayniya (Shiite Mourning Center) in Zahra District where the Supporters of the Promised One were holed up. A woman was killed by a sniper's bullet in Ma`qal District, 7 miles north of Basra.

The Supporters of the Promised One also attacked and killed members of the Sadr movement in Basra. After that, the Sadrist paramilitary, the Mahdi Army, joined the fray against them on the side of the government forces. Sadrist spokesman Salah al-Ubaydi said in Najaf that the Mahdi Army had no connection to the disturbances in Basra, and that the JAM was uninvolved in this outbreak of violence.

Iraqi government sources maintained that they had reestablished control by Friday evening, setting up inspection checkpoints in most major intersections. The LAT reports 50 killed in the Basra fighting, at least.

Nasiriya is a smaller city than Basra, lying to its north in Dhi Qar Province. The Supporters of the Promised One or Ansar al-Mahdi also came into conflict with Iraqi security forces in that city. The LAT reports 20 killed and 25 wounded. A sniper from among the Supporters killed Col. Naji al-Jabiri (commander of the city's Special Forces brigade). They also killed the Director of the Police Operations Office.

A police spokesman in Nasiriya said, "A group of millenarians attacked the HQ of police investigations in Nasiriya with light and medium arms. Clashes broke out that led to the death of Col. Zamil Ramid, the assistant director of investigations." He added, "Army troops arrived at the place and succeeded in expelling the gunmen." The local authorities announced a curfew in Nasiriya "until further notice."

According to eyewitnesses, Supporters had come to the mosque to pray while carrying firearms. They refused to disarm when the police accosted them. A policemen is said to have told them, "We do not wish to prevent you from praying, but we do not want to see the brandishing of weapons."

The Supporters refused to relinquish their weapons, saying "The Imam Mahdi will appear today and we want to fight the apostates alongside him."

Al-Qabas says that a big battle broke out in Salihiya District in north Nasiriya between the Supporters and security forces. A spokesman for the millenarians, Abd al-Imam Jabbar, is quoted as saying that they had launched into action on the basis of a fatwa given by Sayyid Ahmad b. al-Hasan [al-Basri al-Yamani], in hopes that if they could disrupt security it would provoke the appearance of the Imam Mahdi or Promised One.

Another police officer said that the sectarians were waving yellow standards and wearing yellow headbands, and were shooting indiscriminately in north Nasiriya. He added that the Supporters had rocket propelled grenades. When an Army rapid reaction force intervened against them, they waged a fierce battle with it, and badly wounded its commander, Capt. Abd al-Amir Jabbar al-Munadi. They also killed 4 other policemen and wounded 9. Nasiriya's morgue said that among the dead was a woman, in addition to the 4 policemen.

The sectarians were said to have been bent on disrupting the Shiite processions on behalf of Imam Husayn, in hopes that by creating chaos, they would bring about the advent of the promised one.

Special Police Commandos from the Interior Minister arrested 8 members of the group.

Western wire services and newspapers quote Iraqis from Nasiriya as saying that machine gun fire and explosions could still be heard into the night, unlike the case with Basra, where order appears to have been restored.

Some will say that it is good news that the Iraqi security forces were able to put down the uprising by themselves. This is true, though how much help the US gave, exactly, is shrouded in mystery on these shores. But it is also true that the cultists were able to kill one high ranking army officer and to wound two others, and to kill several police and military troops. And it is further true that this group is relatively tiny, whereas if the Mahdi Army really did launch a challenge to the government, it is not clear whether it could survive.



Another view of the days events, with valuable background, is at Arab Times Online.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said that the clergyman may not extend the freeze on activities he imposed on his paramilitary, the Mahdi Army, late last summer. The spokesman, Salah al-Ubaidi, said that the group felt taken advantage of by government security forces, who have been arresting Mahdi Army leaders arbitrarily and with impunity. Al-Ubaidi implied that those doing the arresting consist of criminal gangs infiltrated into the national security forces. In essence, the threat to revive the Mahdi Army seems to be a bargaining chip in a drive to stop arrests of its leaders.

Finally, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim on Friday attacked the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, his supposed ally. He lamented that "personal whims" were getting in the way of progress. The NYT reports that al-Hakim is particularly upset that parliament has made little progress on crafting legislation on how Iraq's oil wealth would be shared out among regions, and that it is dragging its feet on the holding of new provincial elections (these were last held in Jan. of 2005, and were supposed to be held again no later than June, 2006). I had assumed that the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) that al-Hakim leads was hostile to new provincial elections. The Sadr movement seems to have been spreading politically in recent years, and it might be able to win in a fair election. But the Saudi royal family must have something else in mind.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Wave of Killing of Women;

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that women activists on Thursday organized a conference in Baghdad to protest the increasing problem of women being targeted for killing, especially by religious militias. They said that more than 100 women have been killed in Basra, 250 in Kirkuk province, and 50 in Diyala.

McClatchy reports on Shiite hopes that their holy days in the month of Muharram will not be targeted by Sunni Arab guerrillas.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Thursday:

Baghdad: 3 unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad today by Iraqi Police. . .

Mosul

Gunmen exploded a primary school on the right bank in al-Intisar neighbourhood, east Mosul Gunmen exploded a primary school on the right bank in al-Intisar neighbourhood, east Mosul, late this afternoon. No casualties were reported.

An abandoned carbomb explodes on the left bank of Mosul (west Mosul), in al-Shifaa neighbourhood near al-Tahira church causing the death of 1 policeman and the injury of 1 woman and damage to the outer wall of the church.

Salahuddin

1 policeman killed during clashes with gunmen late last night.

Basra

One of the representatives of Ayatollah al-Sistani in Basra, Sheikh Mohammed Felek escapes from an assassination attempt as gunmen driving two modern cars open fire upon him in al-Zubair city, west Basra at 09:00 this evening.

1 policeman killed and another injured as gunmen open fire upon them near Ibn al-Jawzi shrine, 2 km to the south of Basra city this evening." '

Tom Engelhardt examines the rhetoric of "progress" and "hope" that are now being deploying against the Iraqis by the Washington press corps.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Basra Police Chief Denies Iran Mischief in Iraq

The USG Open Source Center translates an interview with the police chief of Basra, Staff Maj-Gen. Abdul Jalil Khalaf. Therein, Khalaf denies that Iran is playing a negative role and stirring turmoil in the southern port city of 1.5 million. Khalaf was appointed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki about six months ago. He is therefore not running interference for a local Basra militia with ties to Iran, e.g. In fact, he has been scathing on the Shiite militias and has escaped numerous assassination attempts. Al-Maliki has correct relations with Iran, but his Da`wa Party is not as close to Tehran as some others.


Iraqi Police Commander in Basra Dismisses Accusations Against Iran
Al-Alam Television
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Iraqi Basra police commander dismisses accusations against Iran

Text of report by state-run Iranian Arabic-language television news channel Al-Alam on 17 January
The commander of Basra Police, Staff Maj-Gen Jalil Khalaf, has described the US-British accusations that Iran is meddling in Iraqi affairs and undermining the security situation as nothing more than a political game. He said the Iraqi security services have not obtained any evidence pointing to a negative Iranian interference in southern Iraq.

(Al-Alam TV correspondent in Basra Ni'mah Abd-al-Razzaq) Iran is backing the armed groups in southern Iraq. This accusation which the US and British forces of occupation have continuously and repeatedly made in the past few years has not been backed up with facts, according to the (Iraqi) field commanders in southern Iraq. The commander of Basra Police, Staff Maj-Gen Jalil Khalaf, described the US and British accusations against Iran as nothing more than a political game, saying that the Iraqi security services have not found any evidence which would point to an Iranian interference in southern Iraq.

(Staff Maj-Gen Khalaf - recording) I tell you this in all honesty, when I find any evidence I will announce it openly, but so far I have not found any. In my capacity as field commander and as a professional, I tell you I have not found any evidence. As regards the countries (concerned), it is their problem and this is politics.

(Abd-al-Razzaq) The police commander, who is known to be rigorous in his pursuit of the gunmen and who, as a result, was the target of nine assassination attempts, derided what is known as the awakening councils in southern Iraq and expressed his total opposition to them.

(Staff Maj-Gen Khalaf) First of all, we were not asleep and have just awakened. I am opposed to the awakening committees (as heard) in the south. What I mean is that I am not opposed to the Awakening Councils in Iraq, but in the south we do not need Awakening Councils.

(Abd-al-Razzaq) Basra Police recently announced that it had raided a camp operated by it described as terrorists in Al-Mudaynah area, north of Basra, where it seized large quantities of weapons and explosive devices. Basra Police did not, however, reveal the identity of the people who were captured in that raid.

The field commanders in southern Iraq have repeatedly denied any negative Iranian interference in Iraqi affairs and yet the US and British forces of occupation are trying to lean on this pretext to justify their failure in Iraq, according to observers.

(Description of Source: Tehran Al-Alam Television in Arabic -- IRIB's 24-hour Arabic news channel, targetting a pan-Arab audience)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

3 US Troops Killed; Bomber Kills 9; US Bombing Raids Up 5 Times

In the small town of Khan Bani Saad in Diyala Province east of Baghdad, a woman suicide bomber killed 9 Shiites and wounded 15 at a market just before a major religious holiday.

Meanwhile, in nearby Salahuddin Province, guerrillas deployed small arms fire to kill 3 US troops:

' SALAHUDDIN PROVINCE - Three U.S. soldiers were killed and two wounded by small arms fire during operations in Iraq's northern Salahuddin province on Wednesday, the U.S. military said. . .

Baghdad and 10 other provinces will be under a vehicle or other sort of curfew beginning Thursday because of the Shiite holy days of the month of Muharram and the danger that radical Sunni guerrillas will inflame sectarian passions by attacking at that time.

Patrick Cockburn reports that poppy cultivation for opium production is spreading rapidly in Diyala Province, and that the profits are fueling narco-terrorism because the fields are controlled by the Salafi Jihadis. American rule of Iraq is like the four horses of the apocalypse.

The US military dropped five times as many bombs on Iraq in 2007 as it had in 2006. Human Rights Watch is worried about the impact on civilian casualties.

McClatchy reports political violence for Wednesday in Iraq:

' Baghdad: Six civilians were injured in two IEDs that targeted the civilians in Nahrawan district southeast Baghdad around 7,00 am.

Around 7,30, gunmen driving a car threw a grenade nearby Sardar car lot near the high way in Nahdha neighborhood east Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

Two civilians were killed and ten others were injured in an IED explosion in Waziriyah neighborhood east Baghdad around 8,00 am.

the American army base in Shaab neighborhood north Baghdad was targeted today with three mortar shells today morning. the US aconfirmed the news about the attack saying that the attack didnt cause any injuries or deaths.

Three civilians were injured in three IEDs explosions in Palestine Street east Baghdad around 9,30 am.

Two mortar shells hit the green zone downtown Baghdad around 7,00 pm. No casualties were reported.

Police found five anonymous bodies in Baghdad . . .

Kirkuk: The police of Khurmato town south of Kirkuk city found a body of a civilian today morning. Police said that the body was of a man named Najeeb Lateef Mohammed who was kidnapped by gunmen yesterday night adding that sings of torture was obvious on the body.

A policeman was injured in an IED explosion that targeted a police patrol on Baghdad Kirkuk Street south of Kirkuk city today morning. . .

[Ninevah]: The spokesman of the police in [Ninevah] province north of Baghdad said that five civilians were injured when a suicide car attacked a patrol of the MNF in al Malyah neighborhood east Mosul city today afternoon.

Six civilians were injured in clashes between the Iraqi army and gunmen in al Noor neighborhood northeast Mosul city today afternoon. '

The Arabic text of the "Accountability and Justice Law" passed by parliament last weekend is now available at the Iraqi parliament site in pdf form. The general parliament URL is www. parliament. iq.

Barnett Rubin has made a series of very important postings on Afghanistan at our Global Affairs blog. Scroll down for his comments last Saturday on the opium problem in Afghanistan, which now may spread to Iraq.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, an important long letter by Poussielgue on the dire straits of the French army after Bonaparte abandoned them in Egypt.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Lebanese Press on Bush's Middle East Tour

See Charles Smith's important comments on Bush's Arab-Israeli diplomacy at our Global Affairs group blog.

The USG Open Source Center translates excerpts from opinion pieces in the Lebanese press concerning Bush's visit to the Middle East (he did not visit Beirut, where politics is so polarized that parliament has been unable to elect a new president. Some Lebanese spokesmen have blamed US interference for the deadlock). Even pro-American newspapers such as an-Nahar and al-Mustaqbal, associated with the March 14 movement, had nothing good to say about Bush or his visit.


Lebanese Press Reacts Negatively to Bush Tour, Says No Impact on Iran Influence
Lebanon -- OSC Summary
Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Lebanese papers published on the Internet from 11 to 14 January carried the following reactions to US President George Bush's regional tour:


Beirut Al-Nahar (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic (Independent, moderate, centrist, and Christian . . . On 11 January, Al-Nahar publishes a 700-word commentary by Mustafa al-Labbad titled "The Lame Duck Before Departure"

The commentary says: "The current visit by US President George Bush to the region differs from his previous limited visits in two main aspects: First, Bush's personal position in the final year of his second term; and second, the different regional balances compared to what they were four years ago. It has become customary in US political terminology to describe the American President during the final year of his term as a 'lame duck' due to his reduced ability to make important decisions; and the current US President is coming to a region, which has changed compared to the period directly following the occupation of Iraq. This change has reflected on conditions in the region, which has changed from being on the receiving end of Bush's conceptions of democracy and fighting terrorism, to an excellent means of strengthening the positions of his Administration in confronting its adversaries in the Senate and Congress, and supporting the chances of the Republican candidate in the presidential elections at the end of the year. According to official US statements, Bush's visit aims to achieve two main objectives: First, to manifest the outcome of the Annapolis peace conference leading to facilitating a settlement between the Palestinians and Israelis; and second, to support regional stability and confirm Washington's commitment to the security of its friends in the Gulf, in other words, to besiege Iran regionally."

Al-Labbad adds: "Phrases such as 'divine inspiration' and 'who ever is not with us is against us' and the 'Crusader war' and 'fascist Islamism' have shaken the image of the US in the region and the world; hence, the successor of President Bush in the White House will have to exert much sincere effort to restore this image and eliminate the impact of the assaults against international law, international relations, and individual liberties in the US. In addition, Bush's policies have weakened the chances of Republican candidates in the next presidential elections opposite any of the Democratic candidates such as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, regardless of the identity of the Republican candidate." The commentary concludes: "The 'lame duck' comes to the Middle East after a metamorphosis in the final year of his term. Hence, the visit of the president of the greatest nation in the world to the region will not result in anything new except for the dull commemorative photo shots and words void of any substance or luster. Most likely, it will be Bush's final visit to the graveyard of his illusions, where his biggest project of the 'New Middle East' has been laid to rest."



Beirut Al-Mustaqbal (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic (Political daily, pro-late Rafiq al-Hariri . . . On 11 January, the paper carries a 600-word commentary by Radwan al-Sayyid titled "Bush's Visit and the Region's Problems"

Al-Sayyid writes: "President Bush came to the region, threatened Iran, and considered it a threat to world security. He also gave Syria the choice between isolation and opening up horizons. From their perspective, he did not listen enough to their concerns and interests. Hence, the endeavors to resolve the Palestinian issue will encounter difficulties, not only from the hard line Israelis, but also from the Palestinian and Arab opposition, and the Iranians. In addition, the Iranians will not cooperate much in the negotiation sessions with the Americans on Iraq. As for the Syrians, they will take their time in accepting the election of a new president in Lebanon; and, if they do, the formation of the government will remain the object of bickering, in anticipation of the outcome of Bush's visit, and in anticipation of the position of the major Arabs following the friendly meeting at the Arab League."


On 13 January, Al-Mustaqbal publishes an 800-word article by Michel Saba titled "Bush Baptizes Peace with War."

The article says: "No country in the world has been more successful than the United States in making itself hated by nations, especially among the poor classes, the marginalized, and the liberals, and those constitute more than two-thirds of the world's population." It notes that "the American President George Bush, who is packing up and leaving his black era, wants to give his departure a special flavor and for his name to be recorded as the world's savior through a number of gateways: either by establishing a Palestinian state welcomed by Arab countries, and which would print his photo on its currency; or by resettling the Palestinians, and then the Jews would place his name next to the prophets of the Old Testament; or he will get rid of Bin-Ladin, after which, the US and Europe could place his statue in independence squares. However, it does not seem that Bush's ambitions are accompanied by practical steps to fulfill this desire. In order to achieve the establishment of a Palestinian state, he is requesting a halt to the settlements, which has enraged the Israeli right wing, hence prompting President Bush to please them through confirming the Judaism of Israel, and subsequently enraging the Arabs, before returning to say that this helps the establishment of a Palestinian state because confirming the Judaism of Israel requires a non-Jewish state to contain the Palestinians. The poor Arabs are unable to capture the points of extreme natural intelligence of the Americans." The article concludes: "Bush wants to stand in the place of John the Baptist in the Jordan River to baptize the Arab and non-Arab regimes and purify them of all their hostile thoughts toward America. He wants to pour water on their heads not with plans open for peace and love, but with a grip clutching a cowboy gun. He wants to baptize peace with war because he is convinced that nations should be free by force, democratic by force, and advanced by force, because this is their fate. The concept of freedom only implies association with the US, and democracy only implies the acceptance of American policy, and advancement only implies adopting the American model." It says that "Instead of standing in the place of John the Baptist, Bush will stand in the place of Herodus, the killer of John the Baptist."


On 14 January, Khayrallah Khayrallah writes a 700-word commentary titled "Iranian and Syrian Messages . . . to Bush!"

Khayrallah says: "It seems that the objective of the Iranian harassment of US warships in the Strait of Hormuz is to remind President Bush the son, on the eve of his Middle East tour, that there is a regional superpower he cannot ignore in any way, nor can he ignore its interests. This power is called Iran. Iran's influence extends from Afghanistan and beyond; and to Mauritania in Africa, and what is under Mauritania, where there are Lebanese Shiite communities; and passing through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and of course, the oil and gas-rich Gulf States. The Iranian message is very clear and indicates that the American President's tour in the region is bound to fail as long as he ignores the growing regional power, which possesses militias in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine, of course in addition to its ability to penetrate Al-Qa'ida and take advantage of it for reasons that serve its regional project. This is the power, with which the US has to negotiate the future of the Middle East. Without it, there can be no stability in the region, and without it, a country such as Lebanon will not even be able to elect a president!"

The writer adds: "In addition, the Syrian regime cannot stand idly by as the US President moves toward the Middle East. The Syrian regime also has to deliver a message indicating that it in turn is capable of destabilization and that it is not entirely under the control of the Iranian regime. It wants to say that it has a margin for maneuver, even in Lebanon, where its influence depends on the Iranian tool known as Hizballah and the military and security machine of this militia, which at the end of the day is nothing more than a brigade in the IRGC. The Syrian regime wishes to tell the Americans that Lebanon is its hostage and that there will not be any stability in Lebanon if the US does not enter into direct negotiations with Damascus, which will secure the return of its tutelage over Lebanon and the Lebanese. Hence, the new appearance of the leader of the Syrian terrorist gang Shakir al-Absi was not a coincidence at this specific time, nor was the launch of two Katyusha rockets from somewhere in southern Lebanon against Israel. The objective is to send a clear message to the Americans, Europeans, and the international community that Resolution 1701 means nothing as long as the Syrian regime does not have a grip on security in Lebanon. The Syrian show of force was not confined to Lebanon, for suddenly the number of rockets launched from Gaza toward Israeli territories increased."

Khayrallah notes: "What we are witnessing is a series of Iranian and Syrian messages directed to the Americans by reminding them of who controls the freedom of navigation in the waters of the Gulf, and specifically in the Strait of Hormuz, and who can create turmoil in Bahrain and strain conditions in Lebanon and prevent it from electing a new president, and create tension in the southern front and threaten the international forces. Through exercising the tug-of-war game with the US, do the Syrian and Iranian regimes hope to make it understand that they are capable of exercising the carrot and stick game with it as well? The Syrian and Iranian regimes are unable to achieve any successes on the regional level in the long term, but in anticipation of the exposure of their game, may God help both Lebanon and Palestine..." Al-Mustaqbal cartoon 14 January titled "Bush Addresses the Iranian People." The cartoon shows US President George Bush with arms open wide saying "Come on . . . the Great Satan embraces the Axis of Evil!"


Beirut Al-Safir (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic (Independent, leftist, espousing Arab nationalist views . . . On 12 January, Al-Safir publishes a 400-word commentary by Sati Nur-al-Din titled "Red Line"

The commentator says: "Until now, Lebanon has been fortunate that it is not at the top of the list of American priorities, or on the agenda of the current regional tour by US President George Bush, and perhaps the reason is because of the Arab initiative led by Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa. Had it not been for that initiative, Lebanon's name would have been repeated every moment, with or without occasion, by President Bush. This preventive task of the Arab initiative is not hypothetical, but there is a belief that the Arabs unanimously agreed to exit Lebanon during this phase, and specifically during Bush's tour, from the cycle of regional conflicts, and the Americans also agreed to grant the Arab solution another chance. The real motive of both sides was their conviction that the Lebanese balance of power, security and military, has started leaning in favor of Syria and its allies, which implies that it is neither in the interest of the US or the Arab and Lebanese majority to enter into confrontation with Damascus regarding Lebanon." The commentary adds: "However, Bush's silence and his Administration's acceptance of the Arab initiative does not suggest that Washington has become wiser in dealing with the Lebanese crisis, nor does it refute the fact that Lebanon was most probably one of the most important topics of discussion between the US President and senior Israeli officials over the past 3-days." It adds: "With respect to the US Administration, which has nothing else to be proud of in its campaign of reform and democracy in the Middle East except for the faltering Lebanese experience, Lebanon is a red line and should not be sacrificed on the altar of any Syrian-Israeli negotiations, for which it is not yet known whether the US President has already given the green light for the launch of these negotiations over the past few days. Perhaps, this is why Bush has remained silent so far and Lebanon has been saved from any additional clamor that could have disrupted the Arab initiative."


The same issue also carries a 350-editorial by Talal Salman titled "Scandalous Visit . . ."

Salman says: "The Arabs are no longer Arabs...George Bush, who has almost become an Israeli on the land that was Palestine, and to which he specifically granted the identity of the Jewish state, was received with a warm embrace in Al-Al-Muqata'ah, where the leader of the revolution Yasir Arafat was assassinated with declared US-Israeli collusion. In Kuwait, Bush was received in his capacity as a liberator and the son of a liberator, while the Iraqis are fighting him in his capacity as the butcher of their homeland and unity of their lacerated political entity through his occupation. He will also be celebrated in the rest of the Arab Gulf states in his capacity as the protector of the imminent Iranian threat. As for Lebanon, which deprived him from entry to meet with his notable friends, his tour in the region and its heavy implications may have exacerbated its political crisis and made its already difficult solution, impossible." Salman notes "It is a blessed visit and its success implies the fall of the great Arab regime."


On 14 January, editor-in-chief Talal Salman writes a second 800-word editorial titled "A Gilded Arab Sword for the Hero of Arab Terror... in Lebanon!"

Salman writes: "All the Lebanese needed now was this insolent and poisoned incitement against their brethren, or against each other, launched by their distinguished guest US President George W. Bush from the heart of some Arab capitals, and in the presence of Arab rulers. Although George Bush's record in inciting strife in Lebanon is rife, however, this continuing campaign of incitement during this official ceremony, and in a written address, and before a congregation of officials, and in the heart of an Arab capital, is unacceptable, regardless of the excuses and justifications." Salman adds: "It is obvious that the exposed American incitement that was adopted by the Administration of George Bush ever since before the occupation of Iraq, and its escalated tone to cover up and justify the occupation, had reached a climax with the current tour in our region, with its declared Israeli title, and without any regard or consideration to its hosts." He adds that "ever since the American President landed on occupied Palestinian territory to declare Israel's right to transform it into a state for the Jews, he has been inciting the Arabs against each other, beginning with inciting the Palestinians against each other, and permitting the cancellation of the right of return. He then turned to the Lebanese and incited them against each other, and against Syria, and against the Palestinians (the right of return once again), before he moved to the Gulf to incite its people against its permanent neighbors, and included the resistance in Lebanon and Palestine in his venomous campaign." Salman concludes: "If the declared objective of the tour of the US President - who is a lame duck at this electoral moment - is to incite the Arabs against their Iranian neighbor and depict it as the only Great Satan and to drag them to stand alongside Israel against terrorism, as if there is any danger that surpasses Israel's terrorism in the region, then a rational Arab official such as Saudi Prince Sa'd al-Faysal has already responded appropriately to Bush, confirming that Iran will always remain a friend, partner, and neighbor to the countries of the Gulf and Arab Peninsula."


Beirut Al-Diyar in Arabic (Independent daily, pro-Syria, political . . . On 11 January, Al-Diyar publishes a 2,000-word front page report titled "Bush Constitutionally Lays the Foundation for Israel's Judaism; Washington Speaks of a Financial Solution for the Refugees"

The report says: "President Bush may have spoken about a Palestinian state, as he is the first US President to move toward the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, the question is: What Palestinian state and in return for what? The response also carries the Israeli threat against the region: 1. Bush declared that the identity of Israel is Jewish, and hence, he converges with both Olmert and the Israeli parties that the constitutional means to implant Israel in the region is the Jewish state. 2. This converges with what occurred in Iraq in terms of its partition into a Sunni state, a Shiite state, and a Kurdish state, and thus, the region, God forbid, is threatened with being transformed into sectarian states in order for the Jewish state to be the strongest in the Levant, which is divided into mini sectarian and confessional states that cancel the Arab identity in accordance with the American scheme for the Levant. Also, there may be a Palestinian state in the West Bank with a barrier facing it and an appendix in the closed Gaza Strip. 3. Bush spoke about financial compensation for the refugees, which implies the cancellation of the right of return or resettlement in the Arab countries, and hence, millions of Palestinians in the Diaspora will be deprived of their homeland, and Bush wants the Arab countries to guarantee the prevention of Palestinians from crossing their territories, through agreements that are under preparation. 4. Bush declared guaranteeing the security of a nuclear armed Israel, in addition to all forms of advanced weapons. Meanwhile, he did not mention anything about guaranteeing the security of the region, and yet, seeks an Arab war against Iran, and all that falls within the Israeli plot, in order for Israel to dominate the region."


Also on 12 January, Nizar Abd-al-Qadir writes a 1,000-word analysis titled "Will Bush Achieve Dean Brown's Prophecy of the Establishment of Two States?"

Al-Qadir says: "It seems that President Bush has decided to proceed in the footsteps of his predecessors, through focusing his attention on the peace process between the Israelis and Palestinians, in an attempt, which seems to be serious, to achieve an agreement that allows for the establishment of two states in Palestine. What is strange is not the interest shown by President Bush during the final year of his presidency to push the peace process forward on the Palestinian track, but the campaign of skepticism, which has almost reached condemnation, that is being launched by certain Arab political and media sides. Certainly, Bush cannot be exonerated from the destructive outcome of the war he waged against Iraq, which is considered a flagrant violation of all principles of international law, in addition to the fact that its outcome can be categorized as a crime of oppression against the Iraqi people. However, this assessment of what occurred in Iraq, should by no means prevent welcoming Bush's initiative to call for the Annapolis Conference and then conduct his first visit to the region as a peace messenger. However, it is insufficient for the US President to state that his visit was a success merely because he managed to push Olmert and Abbas to meet and discuss the vital issues in the peace process. The real criterion to evaluate the outcome of the visit is to achieve an actual breakthrough toward the establishment of a Palestinian state." The analysis concludes: "Bush's current mission is considered as the plank of salvation, on which he is supposed to hang in order to cover the dramatic results of the war he waged on Iraq. It is the right of the Arabs to persistently demand that he exerts his utmost effort to establish the Palestinian state he pledged to establish in order to compensate for his mistakes that caused the death of hundreds of thousands and displaced approximately 4 million Iraqis. George Bush can take advantage of the strong desire of the Arabs to achieve permanent peace with Israel, which was expressed through their participation in Annapolis, and also their adherence to the Arab peace initiative. He can also exploit the fact that Israel needs a comprehensive strategic alliance with the US, as it feels that it is facing threats and dangers, which it is unable to confront on its own (with the Iranian threat being the most significant). Only President Bush can exercise such firm leadership."


On 14 January, Zayna al-Khuri writes a 250-word commentary titled "Boat on a Lake"

The writer says: "Before embarking on his Middle East tour, President George Bush announced that his declared objective is to put an end to the Iranian influence. Before arriving at his first stop in Jerusalem, the 'provocative' incident took place between Iranian boats and US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians had responded to the visit in manner that implied that Iranian influence cannot be deterred verbally. The battle ground is the waters of the Gulf. Is America ready for the confrontation?" Khuri adds: "It is clear that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and extends this influence from its distinct geographic location and advanced military capabilities," noting that "Arab oil tankers are obliged to cross this tightly controlled passage." The world has to deal realistically with this tangible reality and President's Bush's spectacular television statements are not sufficient to put an end to the Iranian influence. If the US is unable to strike Iran militarily for one thousand reasons, then it will have to confront it through other means, and a thoughtful dialogue with Iran save the region from much anxiety."

Sada al-Balad cartoon 14 January titled "Bush Strongly Attacks Iran and Accuses it of Subjecting the Region's Security to Danger and Describes it as the World's Number One State Sponsoring Terrorism." The cartoon shows President Bush's tongue as a missile with the phrase "Middle East Security" written on it.

Beirut Al-Akhbar (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic (political daily, espousing Arab nationalist views, pro-resistance, pro-Syria . . . On 11 January, Fida Aytani writes a 200-word commentary under the 'Moment of the Day' column saying:

"US President George Bush is proposing a mechanism to resolve the problem of Palestinian refugees and to compensate them, in order to bring peace to Israel, the state of the Jews. It seems that the Palestinians have not yet developed sufficiently to establish their own state." Aytani adds: "Compensation for the refugees, estimated at approximately 400,000 residing in Lebanon, and according to this proposal, they will receive financial compensation from their country. These refugees previously lived through a similar atmosphere in 1993, when there was talk about compensating the Palestinian family with tens of thousands of dollars and facilitating their migration to European and other western countries. Then, the mirage faded away, and the desert storms began to recur. Today, two options are being proposed to the Palestinians: Either subjugation, or selling the remainder of their dreams." The commentary concludes: "From where Bush was speaking yesterday, anyone still dreaming of Palestine, and its capital Jerusalem, is anti-democracy and the free world, and part of the axis of evil. Then the Americans ask: Why do they hate us and how do we confront Al-Qa'ida?"


Beirut Al-Intiqad (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic (Hizballah mouthpiece, weekly, political . . . On 11 January, Al-Intiqad carries a 1,000-word analysis by Abd-al-Husayn Shabib titled "Bush in the Region: The President's Visit on the Threshold of his Exit from the White House."

The analysis says: "Is the visit of the President of the United States of America to the Middle East region sufficient to achieve an effective shift in the course of Washington's foreign policy, which is stumbling in all the files of the region, and is it sufficient to achieve accomplishments that minimize its successive losses? Does the visit imply a change in strategies that are usually drafted away from the media and are managed and implemented by persons other than those who appear on the television screens and utter written statements? These two questions are sufficient to comprehend the truth about this visit by George Bush to the region, which has been described as historic." It notes that "if Bush seeks to end his term after 11-months at most, with his first visit to the enemy entity on a personal level, then the axis of his visit hinges on US interests: The security of Israel and oil and all that is linked to them from dangers resulting from the emergence of unforeseen threats that do not begin with Iran's nuclear ambitions, nor do they end at the northern, or southern borders of Israeli terrorism." The analysis adds: "The real objective of Bush's presence alongside Ehud Olmert is Iran, and of course, its allies, who have started, according to American and Israeli decision makers, to pose an existential threat to Israel and US interests along the route extending from Tehran to Beirut and passing through Baghdad, Damascus, and Gaza, and all that is related to them in terms of areas of influence where Iranian power operates in the geography of the Middle East and its neighbors." The analysis concludes: "Apart from the outcome of this visit, the remaining months of Bush's term will keep the region in the circle of US and Israeli danger resulting from the constant search by Washington and Tel Aviv of how to tackle what they describe as Iran's traditional and non-traditional threat."


Also on 11 January, Mahmud Raya writes a 200-word commentary titled "If Only You Prevented Bush from Visiting Your Countries"

Raya writes: "It is painful to see George Bush standing on the land of Palestine announcing that the land is a Jewish state, and to see him received by those who have appointed themselves as leaders of the Palestinian people and saying: Oh great friend. It is as if a dagger has been thrust in the back when witnessing George Bush land in the Arab Peninsula, and welcomed by a reception of honorable leaders, when not a single Arab nation has not tasted the bitterness and pain, or witnessed attempts to impose the humiliation of defeat against it. How can those Arabs honor their killer? How can they glorify their enemy? It is one of the wonders of this era that Bush is a guest of the leaders of the Arab states, while he publicly and openly declares animosity for all that is Arab and Muslim." Raya concludes saying: "Oh Arabs, if only you had prevented Bush from visiting your countries, if only you had demonstrated in protest against this visit, and if only you had shouted a resounding 'No' in his face and the faces of those who received him."


On the same date, Muhammad Yunis writes a 300-word commentary titled "In Brief: The Timing of the Visit"

The commentator writes: "For what did US President George Bush come to the region, especially that he has started packing his bags to leave the White House? This is a legitimate question, especially that the declared objectives of this visit (to end the Arab-Israeli conflict and contain Iran's influence) are the same objectives he has been unable to achieve throughout the past 7-years, besides the fact that the situation in the region was not this difficult for the US or Israel at the beginning of Bush's first term, or even his second one. The military arm of the US, which is drowning in the quagmire of Iraq and Afghanistan, is almost paralyzed and prevents it from entering a new adventure, especially since the objective of the adventure can be called a regional superpower, not to mention the international European and Russian position especially following the issuance of the US intelligence report on Iran." The commentary adds: "Then what are the real objectives of the visit? The majority of the expectations do not go beyond moral political support from Bush to Olmert before the issuance of the Winograd Commission report, with the aim of keeping him afloat internally and externally, especially after witnessing the tight security measures and reception organized by Olmert to receive his partner, or rather his instigator in contriving the second Lebanon war." The writer asks "as usual, did Bush choose the wrong time to conduct this visit."


Beirut The Daily Star (Internet Version-WWW) in English (independent paper; . . . On 14 January, the English language daily carries a 550-word editorial titled "Gulf Arabs Know better Than to Follow Bush's Path to Confrontation with Iran."

The editorial says: "Arab audiences still seem less worried today about the possibly nefarious aims of the Islamic Republic than they are about the US president's proven track record of stirring up chaos and instability in the region. Indeed, fears that another Iraq-style calamity will occur on their doorstep have prompted several Gulf Arab leaders to reach out to their Iranian neighbors like never before in a bid to ease regional tensions. This development has ironically made Ahmadinejad the unlikely recipient of a series of rare warm gestures: He became the first Iranian president to be invited to a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the first to attend the Hajj in Saudi Arabia in an official capacity, and last May he became the first to go on a state visit to the United Arab Emirates."

The editorial continues: "Nearly a year after Ahmadinejad's historic visit to the UAE, Bush used the country as a stage from which to issue his Sunday plea to the people of the region to "confront this danger before it is too late." What Bush fails to realize is that members of his audience were probably cringing at the tone of his most recent message - and perhaps even planning another round of diplomacy to try to smooth over any new tensions the American head of state may have stirred. Bush showed enormous insensitivity to the concerns of the people of this region by choosing the UAE as a venue to deliver his anti-Iran message. Bush is entitled to his warped opinions about Iran, but his message would have been better-suited for delivery to his deluded cronies in the White House than to his wiser allies in the Gulf. The average American might be fooled by Bush's latest attempt to lump Al-Qa'ida, freedom-haters, HAMAS, Hizballah, the Taliban, Iraqi insurgents and Iran into the same lot (which until recently included France), but the people of this region have a much better understanding of these phenomenon and forces. They fortunately also have a better sense of the real root causes of the region's challenges, as well as the required solutions. Thus, the Iranian people can rest easily knowing that Gulf Arab leaders will respond wisely to Bush's latest attempt to stir up mischief."


Beirut Sada al-Balad (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic (Political daily, independent . . . On 14 January, Sada al-Balad carries a 500-word editorial by Ali al-Amin titled "No President before Bush's Departure!"

The editorial says: "Iranian officials are anticipating the outcome of US President George Bush's visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia today, because in their opinion, it is the most important station for Bush and will further clarify the American direction toward Iran." The editorial adds: "The mutual escalation between Washington and Tehran will accompany the preparations of the IAEA report in March. This is an escalation whose implications are evident in Lebanon, where it has prevented the reaching of any settlement, whether on the level of electing a president or reaching agreement on a government of national unity. Tehran may perhaps wait until the election of a new president in order to reach an understanding on the presidential elections in Lebanon. Iran is not about to present any free cards to the Americans in Lebanon, that is, Iranian policy in Lebanon is not about to deviate from supporting the demands of the resistance by pressuring the opposition to relinquish its conditions.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Ayatollah Huckabee Condemns US Constitution with new Fatwa

Mike Huckabee says he wants to amend the US constitution to bring it into line with the divinely revealed law of the living God:

' "I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution. But I believe it's a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living god. And that's what we need to do -- to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards so it lines up with some contemporary view."

Ayatollah Huckabee is behind the times. Ayatollah Khomeini has already rectified this unfortunate secular humanist lapse in the Iranian constitution, way back in the early 1980s:

"Article 2

The Islamic Republic is a system based on belief in:

1.the One God (as stated in the phrase "There is no god except Allah"), His exclusive sovereignty and the right to legislate, and the necessity of submission to His commands;
2.Divine revelation and its fundamental role in setting forth the laws;
3.the return to God in the Hereafter, and the constructive role of this belief in the course of man's ascent towards God;
4.the justice of God in creation and legislation . . .

Even Michigan's evangelicals appear to have been put off by Huckabee's theocratic tendencies. Mitt Romney beat him in Michigan among evangelicals by a small margin, in contrast to what happened in Iowa before the dark (and sometimes bumbling) side of Huckabee became apparent.

Here is video of Huckabee's speech:


For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Al-Anbar Leader Condemns Iraqi Gov. as Sectarian Wants US Out

So whatever happened to Fallujah? Hard to get news from the city. Can they drive personal cars again, yet? Apparently the US military has built blast walls around each of 10 districts in the city. As the US prepares to withdraw from al-Anbar, there are worries about there not being enough local police to provide security.

McClatchy reports that on Tuesday, "A rocket targeted Fallujah police directorate missed its target and hit a residential house causing damages to the house and no casualties. Police said ten suspects were detained from Al Masalma area southern Fallujah were the rocket was launched from."

And, BBC "Monitoring International Reports" carries a translation from the USG Open Source Center of an interview on the situation in al-Anbar and Fallujah by Al-Arab al-Yawm, a Jordanian newspaper, with Dr. Tariq Khalaf Abdullah, head of al-Anbar Reconstruction Commission. Abdullah, from a strongly Sunni region, blames tensions between Sunnis and Shiites on the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki: "so long as there is a sectarian government in Iraq, it is highly likely that it will seek to divide the country." He blames terror attacks on nihilists and the Iranians: "There are two types of occupation now in Iraq, the American and the Iranian . . ." He doesn't actually seem to have a problem with people attacking Americans-- he refers to them as the "resistance." But he complains about those who conduct random violence against Iraqis, implying that many are backed by Iran and also by the United States!. Moreover, he blames the Iranian presence and influence on the United States: "the United States was the main reason that helped Iran come into Iraq." He is clearly eager to get the US out of the towns and cities of al-Anbar Province, and thinks their presence provokes violence. So to sum up, he dismisses the Iraqi government as "sectarian," sees Iraqi Shiites as cat's paws of Iran, wants the US out of his province, and blames the US for bringing Iran into it and well as for secretly backing death squads. And this is a Concerned Local Citizen with strong ties to the Awakening Council! Oh, yeah, the US is sitting pretty in Iraq now.


"January 15, 2008 Tuesday

IRAQI OFFICIAL DISCUSSES IMPROVED SECURITY IN AL-ANBAR, AL-FALLUJAH

Text of report by Jordanian newspaper Al-Arab al-Yawm on 14 January

[Report by As'ad al-Azzuni to Al-Arab al-Yawm: "In an Interview With the Head of the Iraqi National Effort Unification Commission, Dr Tariq al-Abdallah: Calm has Started To Spread in Al-Anbar and the Americans are Withdrawing From the Small Towns and Villages"]

Shaykh Dr Tariq Khalaf al-Abdallah, head of the National Effort Unification Commission in Iraq, and head of the Al-Anbar Construction Commission, has confirmed that the situation in Al-Anbar is now calm, that the Americans have withdrawn from the small towns and villages and have also pledged to withdraw from the centres of Al-Fallujah and Al-Anbar.

In an interview with Al-Arab al-Yawm, he said that they are moving forward with plans to rebuild Al-Anbar and that studies are under way to restore the electricity supply, maintain the Bayji pipeline to Al-Anbar, and build modern refineries.

Following is the text of the interview:

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] Could you please describe for us the course of events in Al-Anbar?

[Al-Abdallah] These days, the Al-Anbar region is witnessing noticeable calm and great improvement on the security level. We believe that there is a great opportunity now for Al-Anbar to begin reconstruction very soon. Many committees have been set up for this purpose.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] Who is behind these committees?

[Al-Abdallah] We have formed a higher commission called the Al-Anbar Higher Commission, which will be entrusted with managing the affairs of Al-Anbar. This commission comprises the head of the local Al-Anbar Council, the Al-Anbar mayor, and the head of Al-Anbar Central Council; in other words, it is under my chairmanship. There will also be Shaykh Ahmad Abu-Rishah and the representative of the Al-Anbar shaykhs, Shaykh Hamid al-Turk.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] You talk about terrorism while you are under occupation. What does this mean?

[Al-Abdallah] There are two types of occupation now in Iraq, the American and the Iranian; both are using groups from outside Iraq under the names of Al-Qa'idah or terrorism. Sometimes, these sides are managed by both parties and conduct activities inside Iraq. For this reason, the Iraqis are confronting them, because the features of the third party are not known. It tries to kill Iraqis, nothing more. It is not actually resisting the Americans or the Iranians, but targeting the Iraqis only.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] As a commission, do you have any contacts or coordination with the Americans?

[Al-Abdallah] By virtue of the presence of the Americans inside Al-Anbar Governorate, there is coordination with them with the objective of withdrawing from inside the cities. We have pledges from them that the security file will be transferred to the local police elements and volunteers from among the tribes in the area. In fact, the Americans have started withdrawing from some of the smaller towns and villages. In accordance with their pledges, they will be withdrawing soon from the centres of both Al-Fallujah and Al-Anbar.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] Do you believe that the Americans will withdraw just like that without any resistance?

[Al-Abdallah] I confirm 100 per cent that their withdrawal in itself is the result of the honourable national Iraqi resistance, which has been confronting them since the first day of the occupation to this day.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] What is the situation in Al-Fallujah these days?

[Al-Abdallah] The situation in Al-Fallujah is similar to that of Al-Anbar, where the town is witnessing a relative improvement in the security situation. I was there some 10 days ago, and noticed a marked improvement in the security situation there.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] What are the reasons for that?

[Al-Abdallah] This has happened because Al-Qa'idah elements have left the city.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] Where is the Iraqi resistance in Al-Anbar then?

[Al-Abdallah] The Iraqi resistance is still in Al-Anbar, and most of them are the ones who fought the infiltrators and those supported by Iran.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] Is Iraq heading towards division?

[Al-Abdallah] We are against division, and we have great hopes that division will not be the ultimate fate of Iraq. But, so long as there is a sectarian government in Iraq, it is highly likely that it will seek to divide the country. However, we have pledged to our God and people that we will oppose this scheme.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] Are there any details regarding the plan to rebuild Al-Anbar?

[Al-Abdallah] We are in the process of conducting some detailed studies on restoring the electricity supply. Some electricity stations were under construction, but the government was unable to finalize them for what we believe were unconvincing reasons. Therefore, we will intervene directly by forming a special committee for this purpose. This committee's mission will be to follow up on the contracts that relate to these refineries and that have been referred to companies that are not capable of implementing them, so that they implement them as quickly as possible. Thus, when the electricity supply is restored, we will be able to operate some of the factories that require electricity. This will lead to employing a large number of unemployed people. Furthermore, we are in the process of maintaining the pipeline for petroleum by-products from Bayji to Al-Anbar to help operate the electricity stations and a modern refinery. When the crude oil pipeline starts to operate, it will also help operate a modern refinery, which in turn helps provide petroleum by-products to the people of the governorate.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] What is the source of your funding?

[Al-Abdallah] There is a plan to invest the Al-Anbar allotted quota of funds for re-building the governorates. Al-Anbar has been deprived of this quota due to the previously alleged security situation. Now, after security has been established, we will demand the Al-Anbar quota in full. We will also demand compensation for the quotas we did not acquire previously.

[Al-Arab al-Yawm] Some five years have passed since the occupation of Iraq. What do you, as Iraqis, have to say about that?

[Al-Abdallah] We blame ourselves first and foremost. We should not blame anyone else because, as a result of our division and the distance between the Shi'is, Sunnis, Arabs and Kurds, we have made ourselves an easy morsel for others. We have become easy prey for the occupation. After suffering from this bitter experience, we hope that this will be a factor of unity, not of division, so that we can all stand in one rank against the occupation, from which we are all suffering, whether it is regional or by the United States. This is because the United States was the main reason that helped Iran come into Iraq.

Source: Al-Arab al-Yawm, Amman, in Arabic 14 Jan 08 "

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McCain runs on Iraq in Michigan

My new Salon.com column is out, entitled

McCain runs on Iraq in Michigan.

The Intro is here:

On the stump in Michigan, John McCain campaigns on victory in Iraq. It's a risky strategy, as the recent surge in violence shows.'

Read the whole thing.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Kurds Miffed by New Coalition

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that altogether 150 deputies in parliament (well over a majority) signed a memorandum of agreement aimed at resolving the most contentious issues facing Iraq.

For their part, the Kurds considered the new alliance as a "wave against them."

Al-Hayat also says the PM Nuri al-Maliki is conducting extensive talks with the parliamentary blocs so as to be able to announce the names of his cabinet ministers next week.

For their part, the Kurds deplored the statement. The Kurdish independent Mahmud Osman, said that "we were surprised by this resolution." He said that the group's antipathy toward article 140 of the constitution (which calls for the holding of an early referendum on whether Kirkuk Province should accede to Iraqi Kurdistan) "can only be interpreted as an attack on Kurdish issues."

President Jalal Talibani extended an invitation to the Islamic Virtue Party (IVP) to join the already- assembled 3-party alliance that underpins the current establishment. This invitation was a transparent attempt to detach Fadhila from their new friends and to draw it into an alliance with the Kurds and to entice it to join the forces in favor of a loose federalism rather than a powerful central government. The IVP or Fadhila left the al-Maliki government in part because they lost control of the Ministry of Petroleum. Fadhila controls Basra, and the Kurds' partners, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq will need Basra to vote in favor of forming a Shiite confederacy from 8 southern provinces if their scheme is to succeed. (The new political alliance is also opposed to the creation of more "autonomous governments"). Fadhila has 15 seats in parliament and is a swing voter.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Monday:

'Baghdad

- Around 8.30 a.m., gunmen assassinated Judge Amir Jawdat Al-na’ib, the member of the federal appeal court while he was in his way to work. The incident took place in Mansour neighborhood (west Baghdad) near Kabab Ninawa restaurant . Jawdat’s car driver was killed in the incident, too.

- Police found (5 ) unidentified dead bodies in the following neighborhoods in Baghdad . . .

Diyala

- Around noon, a joint forces of Iraqi police , American army and popular committees , raided Buhriz village ( 7 km south east Baquba ) arresting 63 suspected men .Meanwhile , a house filled with explosions detonated killing three ( one policemen and two members of the popular committees) and injuring 7 others ( five policemen and two Iraqi officers ).

Salhuddin

- Around noon, an IED targeted a car whose passengers were policemen of Dujail police station who were on their way from Baghdad to Dujail .The incident took place at Tarmiyah area in the midway between Dujail and Baghdad.

- Around 2 p.m., mortars hit Balad district ( north of Baghdad ) injuring one child as destroyed one of the houses there.

Mosul

- Around noon, a car bomb exploded at Gharbalani neighborhood in Mosul city which was parked on the road targeting a police patrol killing one civilian and injuring 6 ( three policemen and three people who were on the road at the moment of the incident.

- Police in Mosul found two unidentified dead bodies in two different places in Mosul city.

Basra

Sunday night , gunmen assassinated Fayadh Al-Mosawi , the man in charge of public relations of Sadr office in Basra , while he was attending a funeral ceremony in Zubair ( south of Basra city ). '

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Muqtada al-Sadr Denounces Bush

The USG Open Source Center translates a statement by Shiite clergyman Muqtada al-Sadr condemning Bush's Middle East tour.

"Iraq: Muqtada al-Sadr Statement Condemns President Bush's Mideast Visit
Iraq - OSC Summary
Monday, January 14, 2008 . . .

Al-Amarah

Militant Al-Amarah News Network in Arabic -- website associated with the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, url: http:// al3marh.net/ news/, on 12 January 2008 was observed to post a statement by Al-Sayyid Muqatada al-Sadr titled: "His Eminence Al-Sayyid Issues a Statement denouncing and condemning in it the visit by the leader of US evil, Bush, to the Middle East." The following is text of the statement:

Since the United States put its stamp on the Middle East and came with its plan, which it called "democracy", the Islamic and non-Islamic peoples have been suffering from a situation that is deteriorating from bad to worse: Poverty is spreading, unemployment is rife, ignorance is prevailing, enmity and hatred are common, and environmental pollution is increasing day after day.

We wonder, will visit by the leader of evil (Bush) to the Middle East be a lever lifting the sufferings of others. No and a thousand no. It came to impose US domination and hegemony on the rest of the states so that their fate will be the same as the fate of others before them.

While we denounce and condemn this visit, which will only spread corruption and wars, we tell him: You brought us wars, and the bringer of war cannot bring peace and the bearer of corruption cannot spread wellbeing. Go away with your freedom and spread it among your own people, who suffer from your suppression. Spread peace among your own people who suffer from fear and hatred of others due to you. Get out of our land and it will be safe.

I also address myself to the Arab rulers and say: Don't forget your people's blood, which is being spilled by the armies of darkness under their leader (Bush). Do not be partners in spilling your people's blood. If you accepted his visit to you and you received him here, this would mean your cooperation with him in spilling the blood of your brothers in Palestine, Iraq, and many other countries. If your thrones cannot continue except by receiving him, then they are not important. It is the people who come first after God. Do not be unfair to your people so that you will be one hand to put an end to US influence; in fact, the ominous troika (al-thaluth al-mash'um) from our land so that we can preserve our people, religion, and territories from the filth of the West and its thoughts.

(Signed) Muqtada al-Sadr, issued on 29 Dhi al-Hijjah 1428 Hijiri "

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12 Parties Sign Letter of Understanding: Seek to Block Kurds from Taking Kirkuk

Several Sunni, Shiite and secular political parties have come together in a new pact aimed at challenging the dominant coalition of the Kurdistan Alliance and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI). They appear to aim at blocking the formation of a Shiite regional confederacy in the South. They also want to stop oil-rich Kirkuk Province from going to the Kurdistan Regional Authority. In March, the 18 month delay in the implementation of the Shiite region (comprising 8 provinces) will end.

The pan-Arab London daily al-Hayat is more breathless about the new pact than the Western wire services. It estimates that 12 parliamentary blocs have signed on to the memorandum of agreement, including a Turkmen party. They said that the central government should continue to enjoy its prerogatives with regard to administering national resources and expressed "severe anxiety" about attempts to conclude contracts by provinces without coordinating with the federal government. (This point is a slam at the Kurdistan Regional Authority, which is doing oil contracts without reference to the Oil Ministry in Baghdad).

The agreement also calls for the issue of Kirkuk Province to be settled by negotiation rather than by referendum. The Kurdistan Regional Authority wants to annex Kirkuk, but most of the Turkmen and Arabs there don't want that to happen. The Kurds have flooded Kurds into the province, so that they would win a referendum if it were held, but the other Iraqis are dragging their feet, so that the issue has been postponed until this summer and may be postponed further. The problem is that the referendum has the potential for sparking both a civil war and a regional war with Turkey.

The parties signing the agreement also want the al-Maliki government to set a timetable for withdrawal of US troops.

The signatories include:

The Sadr Movement (30 seats)
The Iraqi List of Iyad Allawi (25 seats)
Dawa Party - Iraqi Organization (15 seats)
National Dialogue Front of Salih Mutlak (11 seats)
National Dialogue Council (1/3 of the Tawafuq party)
The Turkmen Front
The Yezidi Progressive Movement

It is not expected that the signatories will form a new political bloc to challenge PM Nuri al-Maliki. (And a good thing, too, since you can't imagine them agreeing on anything beyond the narrow points they have assented to for very long).

The Iraqi List of Allawi says that it is in negotiations with PM Nuri al-Maliki to rejoin his cabinet, from which they withdrew last fall. How it is that they are rejoining his government, which has not, to say the least, worked very hard on these three points, is not clear.

The head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Iraqi parliament, Humam Hamudi, said that next week a meeting for national reconciliation would be held in Beirut, to be attended by 22 Iraqi politicians.

It is not clear if the rumored Cairo reconciliation meeting will take place this week or not.

LAT says that the US military is pressuring al-Maliki to employ members of the Awakening Councils, but that it hasn't yet employed that many of them because the Shiite government is deeply suspicious of Sunni former insurgents.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

New Iraqi Law on Baath Worries Ex-Baathists

So the big political news today is that the Iraqi parliament on Saturday finally passed a revision of the "De-baathification" law issued by US viceroy Paul "Jerry" Bremer in May of 2003. That law got tens of thousands of Sunni Arabs fired from their government jobs and excluded from public life and helped kick off the Sunni-Shiite civil war we having been living through for the past few years.

The passage of the new law will be hailed by the War party as a major achievement. But as usual they will misread what really happened.

If the new law was good for ex-Baathists, then the ex-Baathists in parliament will have voted for it and praised it, right? And likely the Sadrists (hard line anti-Baath Shiites) and Kurds would be a little upset.

Instead, parliament's version of this law was spearheaded by Sadrists, and the ex-Baathists in parliament criticized it.

Somehow that little drawback suggests to me that the law is not actually, as written, likely to be good for sectarian reconciliation.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat writes in Arabic that the parliamentarians who criticized the law were drawn from the National Dialogue Council led by ex-Baathist Salih Mutlak, from the Iraqi National List of Iyad Allawi (an ex-Baathist), and from two of the three parties that make up the Sunni Arab National Accord Front.

So the parties in parliament that have the strong Baathist legacy did not like the law one little bit. But they are the ones that it was intended to mollify!

Parliament has been unable to get a quorum on several recent occasions, and barely mustered a quorum on Saturday, with 143 members in attendance out of 275. The new law passed with a narrow majority. The vote count was not published anywhere I could find it, but it could have been as low as 72.

Now, when the Iraqi cabinet of PM Nuri al-Maliki initially introduced the draft bill into parliament last November 25, the Sadr Movement deputies rhythmically pounded their desks in protest. The Sadrists have a special and abiding hatred for the Baath Party, which killed both major clergymen that they venerate, Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr (d. 1980) and Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr (d. 1999). But on Saturday the Sadrists spoke for the new law. Very suspicious.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat says that the current head of the De-Baathification Commission, Falah Hasan Shanshal, is a member of the Sadr Movement. He said, "The law was legislated to punish anyone who committed a crime against the children of the Iraqi people . . . and in tandem, to provide that anyone who had not committed crimes must retire. Those persons may also return to public life, with the exception that some cannot work as bureaucrats in the judicial, ministerial or security bureaucracies, or in the ministries of Foreign Affairs or Finance. He added that "everyone agreed on punishing the Baath Party as a party that committed crimes against the Iraqi people." He expressed the hope that the law would be quickly ratified by the presidential council.

Baha' al-A`raji is a Sadrist and the chairman of the Legislative Committee in parliament. He said that the law in its current form differs essentially from the bill that was sent over from the cabinet. Al-A`raji told al-Sharq al-Awsat that "Some members could not vote for some passages or articles in the current version of the law . . . or could not accept the law in its entirety. But a majority of parliament voted for the law." He added that the law "took into account all the suggestions of the Sadr Movement." The Sadrists had demanded that the De-Baathification Commission not be dissolved, but would accept a change in name for it. They had demanded that the Baath Party remain dissolved, and that the high-ranking members of the party be forbidden to enter the new political life or serve as bureaucrats. The Sadrists had also insisted that any high-ranking Baathists presently employed by the new Iraqi government must be fired!

The headlines are all saying that the law permits Baathists back into public life. It seems actually to demand that they be fired or retired on a pension, and any who are employed are excluded from sensitive ministries.

Al-A'raji was completely unsympathetic to opponents of the law, which he said was now unstoppable.

Members of the Iraqi National Front (Allawi's group), the National Dialogue Front (Mutlak), and two of the three constituent parties of the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni Arabs), along with some IAF independents, denounced the law in a circulated, signed letter. They said that the law would be "difficult to implement." They indicated that they had not voted for it and do not support it. They called it "unrealistic" because it contains an article forbidding the Baath Party "from returning to power ideologically, administratively, politically or in practice, and under any other name." The law's opponents charged that this language was unconstitutionally vague and could easily be "misused."

What are the ex-Baathists afraid of? Well, they are ex-Baathists in politics. So this objectionable passage seems to make it possible for the Sadrists, e.g., to keep people like Iyad Allawi from ever again enjoying high office. His secular, nationalist Iraqi National party could easily just be branded too close to the original Baath Party and dissolved, and he could be excluded from high office by this new provision.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports political violence on Saturday:

' DHULUIYA - Gunmen killed six people in attacks on two houses, including a former Iraqi army officer and two members of a U.S.-backed neighbourhood patrol in a village near Dhuluiya, 70 km (45 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces arrested 15 gunmen during operations on Friday and Saturday in central and northern Iraq, the U.S. military said.

NEAR BAQUBA - A parked car bomb wounded four people including two soldiers when it struck an Iraqi army patrol in a town east of Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Two roadside bombs exploded in succession, wounding two people in Palestine Street in eastern Baghdad, police said. "

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Yamli Arabic software

My readers sometimes ask me about Arabic software tools for the web. I just wanted to flag for them Yamli.com, which I'm finding a real delight. It would be slow for someone who was a good touch typist in Arabic, but for those of us who peck out the letters, it is wonderful, and it lets you use a qwerty Roman keyboard with smart prompts. It is a great way to surf the Arabic Web and the Arabic news.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

4 Killed in Baghdad Bombing Turks attack Kurds inside Iraq Again

PM Nuri al-Maliki called for widened political participation. He appears to be working on a compromise that might bring the parties of Iyad Allawi and Tariq al-Hashimi/ Adnan Dulaimi back into his government.

Ammar al-Hakim, called on the Iraqi Accord Front and the National Iraqi List to rejoin the al-Maliki government, giving al-Maliki some support.

The USG Open Source Center translates a Kurdish television report that confirms that Turkey again shelled northern Iraq. Both Turkey and the Kurds are close US allies, so their feuding puts Washington in a difficult situation.

"Turkey shells Iraqi Kurdistan Region border areas - Kurdish TV
Kurdistan Satellite TV
Friday, January 11, 2008 . . .
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Turkey shells Iraqi Kurdistan Region border areas - Kurdish TV

Text of report by Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) satellite TV on 11 January

The correspondent of Kurdistan Satellite TV in Al-Amadiyah (Administrative District, Duhok Governorate) has said that the Turkish army has shelled the Valley of Rashava, Zilyee, Seri, Naheliya area and Nerway in Deraluk region of Al-Amadiyah this morning. He added that the shelling was continuing even while preparing the report.

(Description of Source: Salah-al-Din Kurdistan Satellite TV in Sorani Kurdish -- Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) satellite TV)"

Reuters reports other political violence for Friday in Iraq:

BAGHDAD - A suicide car bomb blew up outside a bakery in New Baghdad district in eastern Baghdad, killing two people and wounding eight others, police said. [Al-Hayat is reporting that the bombing killed 4.]

BAGHDAD - Three bodies were found dumped across Baghdad on Friday, police said.

MAHMUDIYA - A roadside bomb wounded three policemen when it hit their patrol in Mahmudiya, 30 km (20 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Iraqi soldiers killed nine gunmen and arrested 59 others during the past 24 hours across Iraq, the Defence Ministry said.

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces killed two gunmen and detained 11 others during operations on Thursday and Friday in central and northern Iraq, the U.S. military said. (Editing by Robert Woodward)"

Mcclatchy adds: "Diyala - Friday morning , a joint forces ( American army , Iraqi army and Sahwa ( Awakening council) finishing their operation in Muqdadiya ( 36 km north east of Baquba ) in six of its villages clearing the area from Al-Qaeda arresting 20 ( ten of them are wanted while the others are suspected) and killing ten others."

Jamie Gumbrecht of McClatchy reports that the US Air Force just dropped 40,000 pounds of munitions on Arab Jubour, an area US commanders had been saying had been secured by an Awakening Council.

Sunni Arab guerrillas melted away in the face of American units in Diyala valley east of Baghdad.
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US Video of Iran Speedboats Doctored; Iranians Charge Fabrication

The Bush administration's assertion that 5 small Iranian boats confronted big, well-armed US ships in the Straits of Hormuz and threatened to blow up the American vessels is looking more and more like a serious error if not a Republican Party fabrication.

The episode featured prominently in the Republican presidential debate in South Carolina, according to McClatchy:

"One of the most animated exchanges came when the candidates were asked whether they backed the Navy's cautious response recently when Iranian boats reportedly harassed U.S. vessels in the Persian Gulf.

Huckabee said anyone who challenges the Navy again should be prepared to go to the "gates of hell." Thompson said anyone testing the Navy might soon meet the "virgins" that Islamic terrorists expect to meet in heaven.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul called the bellicose language frightening and reminiscent of the reaction to an alleged naval exchange that led to the Vietnam War. "I would certainly urge a lot more caution than I'm hearing here tonight," Paul said.

Romney cracked that Paul should stop reading Iranian propaganda, drawing what sounded like boos from the audience and a glare from Paul."

So the Republicans are embarrassing themselves again, because there was not any reason to send anyone through the gates of hell. Moreover, Huckabee and Romney are not the ones who would suffer if Bush and Cheney managed to get up a skirmish with Iran. Our troops, kidnapped and held in the midst of a hostile Shiite population in Iraq, would be on the line. Getting them blown up for nothing is the opposite of patriotism.

The video released by the Pentagon (at whose orders?) showed these little tiny vessels only a little bigger than what children play with in bathtubs, with no visible armaments. The video does not show anyone dumping white cartons into the water, as was initially alleged (an action which would probably have drawn fire from the US ships if it had happened, lest they be mines). While even a small vessel could be dangerous if it carried high explosives, there is no evidence that they got close enough to the US vessels to form any sort of threat nor that the Iranian government is so foolish as to openly attack the US Navy.

The Iranians analyzed the Pentagon video released to the US media and found that the audio track was not synchronized properly with the video, pointing to serious tinkering.

And sure enough, we now know that the tape is a fabrication in the sense that the Pentagon says the video and the audio were recorded separately and then combined. And they can't even be sure where the audio came from! The NYT reports,

' The audio includes a statement that says, “I am coming to you,” and adds, “You will explode after a few minutes.” The voice was recorded from the internationally recognized channel for ship-to-ship communications, Navy officials have said. Naval and Pentagon officials have said that the video and audio were recorded separately, then combined. On Wednesday, Pentagon officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak officially, said they were still trying to determine if the transmission came from the speedboats or elsewhere."

Wouldn't it have been better to determine if the transmission came from the Iranian speedboats before super-imposing it on the videotape of the Iranian boats and then issuing it in such a way as to possibly foment a war?

A posting to the NYT "the Lede" blog page observed that the frequency used for ship communications in the Gulf is very busy and has lots of extraneous traffic, including the hurling of racial epithets against Filipinos & etc. The experienced former naval officer said, "My first thought was that the 'explode' comment might not have come from one of the Iranian craft, but some loser monitoring the events at a shore facility."

This episode is just about the most pitiful thing I have seen since Bush came to power, and believe me I've seen plenty.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards issued their own video and audio of the encounter, which shows a routine identity check (see below).

Hamshahri reports in Persian that Sayyid Mahmoud Jazayeri said that questioning passing ships is a completely routine activity for the Iranian speedboats. Jazayeri accused Washington of attempting to paper over its serious defeats in the Middle East with this gimmick.

The USG Open Source Center translates some of the transcript below.

"Iran TV Says BBC, CNN Complicit in 'Falsity' of US Footage
Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

The navy of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps aired a clip of the Hormuz Strait incident, which proves the falsity of the claims by American officials. In pictures aired today, the Iranian vessel only asks a few questions from the American one. The American vessel responds to the questions by Iran and this is a routine matter in the activities of the patrol units in maritime territory.

(Iranian patrol in English) Coalition warship seven, three. This is Iranian navy patrol boat Tatone - 16. Navy warship, navy warship seven, three. This is Iranian navy patrol boat Tatone - 16. Come in, over.

(US navy officer over radio, in English) This is Coalition Warship seven three. Roger, over.

(IRGC officer, English) Coalition warship seven three. This is Iranian navy patrol boat Tantoma - 16. Over.

(Passage indistinct)

(Presenter) CNN had aired a clip in which the Iranians had surrounded the American vessel threatening that in a few minutes time you will explode. The CNN and BBC networks aired Iranian footage today but without the sound.

The Iranian deputy admiral of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps said that the claims of the American officials on threats against the American warships are totally false, because in the main reel the military number of the Iranian person (on his uniform) speaking is shown quite clearly.
Admiral Fadavi added that the conversation between Iranian vessels and other passing vessels is perfectly normal, which happens over and over again.

(Iranian TV aired parts of the video with Farsi caption on English conversations)

(Description of Source: Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1 in Persian -- state-run television). "

The Iranian press is suspicious about the timing of the Pentagon videotape, noting that it was released just as Bush was heading to the Middle East to try to convince the Arab allies of the US to make common cause with Israel against Iran. The Gulf monarchies in particular are very afraid of the Iranian navy, and the Bush administration video would have been useful for pushing the Kuwaitis, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia into agreeing with the Bush grand strategy of surrounding Iran and then cutting it off.

(See also today's posting at the Global Affairs blog by Farideh Farhi on Iranian concerns about US intervention in Iranian domestic politics.)
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9 US Troops Killed; 250,000 Civilians Dead in Bush's War?

Sunni Arab guerrillas have killed 9 US soldiers in the past two days. They killed 6 and wounded 4 with a bomb in a booby-trapped safe house on Wednesday. The deaths come in the course of an American sweep in Diyala Province aimed at weakening the Salafi radicals.

A new World Health Organization study estimates the excess numbers of civilians killed in violence in Iraq from April 2003 through June 2006 at between 101,000 and 224,000. They settled on 151,000 or so as the most likely number. This number is an estimate of how many people died of violence beyond what you would have expected from the 2001-2002 baseline. Violent deaths increased 17 times over once the Bush administration invaded the country. As I read the AP article, the study actually found more like 302,000 excess deaths, but only attributed 151,000 to violence. It seems to me possible that some of the other 151,000 excess deaths could also be chalked up to the US invasion and the reaction to it, even if they are not violent. There have been disease outbreaks, shortages of medicine, poor medical care, displacement of populations to tent cities with poor sanitation, and difficulties in traveling to distant hospitals. Bears looking into.

The Lancet study found 600,000 excess deaths from violence. I'm not qualified to make a methodological judgment as to the virtues of the two studies. I don't think the validity of the Lancet estimate should just be dismissed by journalists or bloggers, for the same reason. If someone is a specialist in the public health field and a whiz at statistics, then I'd be interested in a judgment from that person. But I would point out that the last time Bush admitted his war had killed civilians, he quoted the figure of 30,000, and we can definitely dismiss such tiny numbers as woefully inaccurate. Bush has to face up to what he has done.

Passive gathering of death statistics from newspapers, which always misses a lot of unreported deaths, such as at the Iraq Body Count site, came up with 47,668 civilian deaths in the same period. IBC is now up to about 84,000 civilian deaths. If the 3 to 1 discrepancy between reported and unreported deaths visible in the WHO study held steady, that would take us to a further 100,000 or so deaths in the past 18 months, and to roughly 250,000 excess deaths through violence since the war began.

There is also the question of how many Iraqis have sustained significant or crippling injuries from the same violence that has left so many dead. For US troops, the ratio is nearly 4,000 killed to nearly 10,000 severely wounded, or 2.5 times. If the same rate held true for Iraqi civilians in the war, and if it is true that 250,000 have by now been killed, it would equal 625,000 severely wounded.

One of the arguments warmongers gave for overthrowing Saddam Hussein was that his regime was responsible for the violent deaths of some 300,000 civilians between 1968 and 2003. That estimate now appears exaggerated, since the number of bodies in mass graves has not borne it out. But what is tragic is that in 4 1/2 short years, a foreign military occupation has unleashed killing on a scale achieved by the murderous Saddam Hussein regime only over decades. Bush did not kill all those people directly, of course, but he did indirectly cause them to be killed, since these are excess deaths beyond what you would have expected if there had been no invasion and occupation.

I am often struck by how clueless the American public is to the vast destruction we have wrought on Iraq and its people, directly or indirectly. It strikes me as a bitter joke that 4 million are displaced, often facing hunger and disease, and the rightwing periodicals and presidential candidates are talking about how the "surge" has "turned things around." For whom? How many orphans have we created? How many widows? How many people who weep and cry every night while trying to fall asleep on straw mats? I estimate on the basis of a UN study of refugees in Syria that as many as 600,000 or 700,000 Baghdadis were ethnically cleansed from the capital under the nose of the American troops implementing the surge. There is an old Chinese proverb, "Children throw stones at frogs in jest, but the frogs die in earnest."

See our Global Affairs blog for more on this issue, and for recent postings on Iran and Pakistan.

Bush has gutted American civil liberties, and turned us into a hateful nation of spies, torturers, bigots, and colonialists occupying someone else's country. (See Tomdispatch.com for an impassioned argument on how this was accomplished. And he has managed to unleash a maelstrom of violence in the Middle East that has wiped out the population of a medium-sized city. Surveying civilian deaths in Iraq is like walking through Lincoln, Nebraska, after it was hit by a neutron bomb, with everyone dead. Everyone.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

McCain Republicans' anti-War Candidate; Sunnis Fear Return of Baghdad Violence;

In the US, here is an irony. John McCain, "Mr. Surge," who dreams of a century-long US occupation of Iraq, was the anti-war candidate for Republicans in Iowa. Yes:

' Exit polls found 64 percent of Tuesday's Republican voters still support the conflict -- and Romney, whose criticism of President Bush's management of the war has been muted, outpolled McCain in that category.

But among the 34 percent who said they disapproved of the war, McCain had a wide advantage over the GOP field -- even over Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the sole advocate of a U.S. withdrawal in the Republican field. '

Likewise, nearly half of New Hampshire Republicans are anti-Bush, and they went for McCain big time. How long-serving Senator McCain who supports the Iraq War became the ' non-Washington' candidate, I'll never know.

CNN also found that something like 93 percent of those who voted in the Democratic primary were opposed or strongly opposed to Bush. The Dems have a shot at repeating the landslide of 1964.

Back in the real world, in Iraq:

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that the Iraqi Accord Front [Sunni fundamentalist] has expressed severe anxiety about the return of violence to Baghdad neighborhoods, the targeting of members of the Awakening Councils, and the failure of the Nuri al-Maliki government to provide the latter with sufficient security.

The United Nations High Commission on Refugees is seeking over $200 million to alleviate the suffering of displaced Iraq. The US Congress should fund this initiative. The Democrats in Congress could at least point to that as a victory in their Iraq policy-- i.e. if they couldn't de-fund the war, at least they could fund the effort to help the people the war has kicked out of their homes. The US is spending $15 billion a month in Iraq and Afghanistan at least . . . $200 million is chump change in comparison. Please contact your senators and your congressional representatives and urge them to fund the UNHCR to help the Iraqis. The US is responsible for displacing some of them, after all.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that the Iraqi minister of agriculture is saying that a drought threatens the area around Mosul in the north, endangering food supplies.

Turkey has arrested 7 persons in connection with a bombing in Diyarbakir several days ago. The alleged ringleader is said to have received training in a camp of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. Bush is trying to pull off a disappearing act in making the US complicity in a renewed Kurdish separatism vanish. Although visiting Turkish president Abdullah Gul appeared happy with Bush's words, it is unlikely he is actually happy with Washington policy, which involves coddling Kurdish militants in northern Iraq. As for Bush's method of dealing with the PKK? It appears to be to keep his hands off the problem and to let the Turks try to resolve it by bombing Iraqi villages. I.e. Bush is encouraging yet another war to be fought in Iraq!

Seumas Milne of the Guardian is unimpressed with the US troop escalation or 'surge' as long as it does not yield political progress.

Shell and Total are competing for rights to develop the Akkas natural gas field in al-Anbar Province near the Syrian border. But without a law on the sharing of oil and gas revenues, this foreign involvement is going to look like bank robbery.

A poll of over 4,000 serving US diplomats (out of over 11,000 altogether) found that nearly half of those who said they did not want to go to Iraq deeply disagreed with the policies toward that country of George W. Bush. These were not political employees, just the rank and file. Nearly half also felt that Secretary of State Condi Rice is doing a poor job in securing for them the resources they need.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

' Baghdad

- Around 7 a.m., gunmen assassinated an officer of the ministry of interior “ Mohammad Aziz Al-Gatia in his car in Zafrania neighborhood ( east Baghdad) .

- Around 7 30 a.m., gunmen assassinated the deputy of Mansour taxes department in Diragh district in Mansour neighborhood ( west Baghdad).

- Around 11 a.m., an IED was planted inside the car of the head of Yarmouk council ( Dr.Falah Mansour Hussein ) who was killed in the incident with two other people who were injured .

- Around 3 p.m., a suicide bomber wearing a vest filled with explosives targeted a police check point at Al-Medain district ( south of Baghdad) killing one policeman and injuring three ( one policeman and two civilians).

- Around 3 p.m., two mortars hit Medain district ( south of Baghdad ) injuring 2 people.

- Around 3 .30 p.m., a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol at Rashid camp neighborhood ( south east Baghdad) . No casualties reported.

- Police found 5 unidentified dead bodies in the following neighborhood in Baghdad: ( 3 ) dead bodies were found in west Baghdad ( Karkh bank ) ; 1 in Doura , 1 in Bayaa and Amil . While ( 2 ) were found in east Baghdad ( Risafa bank) ; 1 in Ubaidi and 1 in Fudhailiyah.

Diyala

- Tuesday morning, a roadside bomb exploded at a house in Jalwla ( east of Baquba) killing a woman who was the owner of the house. . .

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

OSC: Pakistani Papers React to NYT Story on Expansion of CIA Activities

The USG Open Source Center provides translated excerpts from Pakistani editorials reacting to Sunday's New York Times story on discussions by VP Dick Cheney with others in the administration about widening the role in Pakistan of the Central Intelligence Agency and giving it permission to carry out paramilitary strikes in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) where al-Qaeda leaders are suspected of having taken refuge. The Pakistani editors generally went ballistic about the idea of the American role expanding inside Pakistan.


"Urdu Press Roundup on New York Times Report on Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal
Corrected Version: correcting Subject
Pakistan -- OSC Summary
Tuesday, January 8, 2008 . . .

The following is a roundup of excerpts from editorials on the New York Time's report on action inside Pakistan and its nuclear assets, published in the 8 January 2008 editions of seven Urdu dailies:


Nawa-e Waqt Editorial Laments Pro-US Policies of Incumbent Rulers

Questioning the need for direct US operations inside Pakistan, the editorial says: "It is hard to know when our rulers will realize the fact that the US has made Pakistan a target. Pakistan has been weakened greatly as a result of the policies pursued over the past six years. Due to this, not only is a rehearsal being conducted to seize Pakistan's nuclear assets but a military operation is being launched using the excuse of Al-Qa'ida and the Taliban. This is the reward for the services that the Musharraf regime has rendered in the wake of 9/11. Lawlessness, terrorism, and unrest reign supreme in the length and breadth of the country. This has exposed the illegitimacy and inefficiency of the Musharraf regime. Therefore, it will be self-deception to believe that the strategy of the current government will yield good results in the future and that we will be able to counter the US designs."


Jinnah Editorial Discusses Threats to Country's Nuclear Program

Referring to the reports published persistently by the western media against Pakistan's nuclear assets, the editorial remarks: "Pakistan has promoted its nuclear program by making great sacrifices. The United States has not only cursed those who have advanced this program but also spared no effort to insult them. It is now our responsibility to mobilize all means to defend it, and to defy the bullying, pressure, and allegations as our nuclear program is a guarantee of our survival and integrity. The US has bad designs against it. It is gradually moving forward in this regard. The situation in the country is not encouraging and the provinces have also started to raise voices of discontent."


Islam Editorial Sees US Paving Way for Aggression Against Pakistan

Taking serious notice of the reports being published against Pakistan and its nuclear program as what was done ahead of the aggression against Iraq and Afghanistan, the editorial comments: "First and foremost, these reports and statements show that all the efforts and sacrifices made by Pakistan after joining the so-called US-led war on terrorism, is proving to be an albatross around its own neck. On the one hand, the US is demanding more and more sacrifices from Pakistan. On the other, it has been decided that the war, launched on the excuse of the Al-Qa'ida and Taliban, will be thrust on Pakistan through direct US aggression. All these reports prove nothing except that the volley of allegations made by President Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, to the US media, and other countries, was not just a blame-game. These allegations were also aimed at preparing the world like it was primed ahead of the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan through hues and cries. There is great hue and cry against Pakistan, persistent propaganda, allegations, planning, threats, tirades by the US Presidential hopefuls, other individuals and agencies. The target of all of them is the one and same i.e. the destruction of Pakistan and elimination of its nuclear program."


Jasarat Editorial Says US Aggression to be Met With Full Force

Emphasizing that the US should not expect that aggression in Tribal Areas of Pakistan will be smooth sailing, the editorial says: "There are reports that a secret meeting was held at the White House between the security advisors of President Bush and Dick Cheney and Condoleezza Rice in which giving more powers to the US troops and the CIA to launch aggressive operation in Pakistan's Tribal Areas was considered. Reports have already been published in the US media that the CIA is launching operations in the Tribal Areas. The Pakistan Government has already rejected these reports. It is not possible for foreign troops to remain unharmed after entering Pakistani territory. The first thing is that the tribesmen, who are being targeted at US behest, will resist them. Then, this will be followed by the Pakistan Army, which has not become so unresponsive as to allow any enemy to launch willful operation inside its territory for the sake of a few (individuals)."


Jang Editorial Asks President Musharraf to Talk to President Bush

Lamenting the US design against Pakistan's nuclear assets, and propaganda against it, the editorial comments: "Not only Pakistan, but also Iran's efforts to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes have become intolerable for the US and other countries. It appears that responsible US circles including President Bush, members of his administration, and several presidential hopefuls are not willing to bother about the assurances being given by Pakistan. Therefore, it is the demand of the impending danger that the president should himself talk to President Bush in order to get a clear picture of the situation, and the secret anti-Pakistan designs of the hostile powers. Musharraf should ask Bush whether this is the reward for supporting the US and the entire world community in the war on terrorism and extremism, and the US action to dismantle a recognized government of a Muslim country? Do they want to deprive Pakistan of its nuclear capability and nuclear assets in exchange for these services? Threats are being made about launching military operations against Pakistan under the guise of allegations."


Pakistan Editorial Criticizes Propaganda Against the Country

Expressing surprise over the persistent campaign being launched against Pakistan, the editorial states: "So far as the report published in the New York Times is concerned, it is dangerous and a cause of great concern. The Pakistan foreign office and Inter Services Public Relations have adopted a very serious and solid stance regarding the report. However, the thing to ponder over is why does Pakistan have to face such media campaigns and being put in an awkward position time and again. It has become a routine matter every other day for the US to create some mischief against Pakistan. Other European countries are involved in the same kind of activities. The US is going through an electoral process these days and the presidential hopefuls are also making irresponsible statements. Their irresponsible statements are also published in the media in addition to the New York Times report. These statements are also very dangerous and alarming. It appears as if there is no major issue for debate in the United States. Have the United States, and presidential candidates resolved all the (internal) problems faced by their own country?"


Ausaf Editorial Urges Rulers to Take Stock of Their Policies

Appealing to the nation to unite to counter the conspiracies being hatched by the enemies of Pakistan, the editorial states: "We believe that the rulers have a heavy responsibility at this critical juncture to review their policies instead of trusting the US blindly. They should give preference to their interests over those of the US and respond to them boldly. The US should be told that the Pakistani nation and army know how to defend their borders well. Every child of Pakistan can sacrifice his life to defend the frontiers of the country. Therefore, there is a need for the rulers and politicians to stop making allegations against each other and unite to counter the hostile forces." '
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

24 Dead in Sunni Counter-Attacks; Major Refinery in Flames

In a further sign of a determined new year's counter-attack by the radical Salafis and/or neo-Baathists, a wave of bombings and kidnappings swept Iraq on Monday, leaving 24 dead, dozens wounded.

In the eastern Sunni enclave of Adhamiya in Baghdad, now more and more surrounded by purely Shiite districts, Sunni guerrillas attacked the offices of the local Sunni Pious Endowments Board, which overlaps with the leadership of the pro-American Awakening Council. al-Hayat reports in Arabic that one guerrilla detonated a belt bomb, and the other used a car bomb. They killed 14 persons, including Col. Riyadh al-Samarra'i, and wounded 25. Al-Samarra'i had commanded units of Sunni militiamen on the American payroll. While the Awakening Councils in other provinces are mostly tribal levies, in urban neighborhoods of Baghdad they appear often to be manned by former soldiers of the Baath Army or former Sunni guerrillas.

Further, three Awakening Council patrolmen were killed in various attacks in south Baghdad and Bayji. Several angry commanders of Awakening Council fighters called Al-Hayat to complain that the Shiite government of PM Nuri al-Maliki was offering them no support and was leaving them as sitting ducks. They said that the Iranian Quds Force or the Mahdi Army were in part behind the government's reluctance to provide them with security. They predicted that the campaign against them was only beginning. Shuja` Naji Shakir al-Adhami, a former Baath officer now leading an Awakening Council unit in al-Ghazaliya, went further and accused the Iraqi government of collaborating in attacks on the councils.

Reuters reports other attacks on Monday:

' BAGHDAD - A bomb hidden in a street vendor's cart killed four people and wounded 16 others in the Karrada district of central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb stuck on the side of a parked car killed one civilian and wounded four, including two policemen, when it detonated near a police checkpoint on the outskirts of Baghdad's Shi'ite slum of Sadr City, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Gunmen in five cars kidnapped between eight and 10 neighborhood patrol volunteers in Baghdad's northern Shaab district. Police said the volunteers had been manning a vehicle checkpoint.

BAGHDAD - Seven bodies were found around Baghdad, police said. . .

MOSUL - Two bodies were found in eastern Mosul, one of them handcuffed and blindfolded, police said.

LATIFIYA - Gunmen killed a neighborhood patrol volunteer at a checkpoint in Latifiya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.'

In what appears to be an industrial accident, one of Iraq's major oil refineries, was damaged on Monday. The damage to the refinery raised the specter of shortages of gasoline and kerosene. At least 4 persons were killed and 24 were wounded in the fiery blasts.

McClatchy adds:

' Diyala

Police found five bodies near the main street in Qara Kitta village 100 Kms east Baquba north of Baquba. One of the bodies was the body of the mayor of Qaraqoosh village.

Gunmen killed a civilian in Buhorz village south of Baquba today morning.

A police office and a member of Sahwa were injured when a mortar shell hit a combined check point downtown Baquba city today morning.

Kirkuk

Gunmen killed three civilians (a husband and his wife and an Iraqi army soldier) in Abo Saif village, part of al-Reyadh city west of Kirkuk city yesterday night.

A katyosha rocket hit the area near the building of Iraqia channel downtown Kirkuk city today morning. No casualties were reported. '

Bill Boyarsky argues that leading Democratic candidates are not facing the truth, that the US cannot afford a continued Iraq troop presence in addition to the costs of implementing universal health care.

Farideh Farhi weighs in on the issue of the Iranian gunboats making a run at US naval ships. She feels that if the radio intercepts were accurate, it is highly unlikely that these were local units acting alone-- as I had suggested.

See also the recent postings at Global Affairs on Pakistan by Barnett Rubin.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll: Big "Mo-bama" Grabs Dems in Granite State; McCain Regains Lead Over Romney in GOP Battle

Zogby gave permission to reprint the below, just in:

' UTICA, New York—Democrat Barack Obamas dramatic post-Iowa momentum has come to full bloom in the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire daily tracking poll, rocketing to a 10-point lead over rival Hillary Clinton and a 20-point over Edwards. In New Hampshires Republican primary race, the survey shows Arizonas John McCain had a very good day at the same time that Massachusettss Mitt Romney lost ground, resulting in a five-point lead for McCain.

Iowas GOP caucus winner Mike Huckabee has fallen into a distant third at 10%, barely ahead of Rudy Giuliani, who enjoyed a slight uptick and rests at 9%.

Democrats NH Tracking

Clinton 1-4/6: 29% 1-2/5: 31%

Obama 1-4/6: 39% 1-2/5: 30% . . .

Pollster John Zogby: This full sample is after Iowa. On the Democratic side, we have clarity and confirmation of what is being felt on the ground in New Hampshire: big momentum for Obama and movement against Clinton. As in the closing days in Iowa, Clinton is slowly losing her support among women (she leads 37% to 33%), Democrats (Obama leads 36% to 32%), and Liberals (Obama leads 34% to 32%). Obama leads among Independents (47% to 22%), men (45% to 21% for Edwards and 18% for Clinton), and 18-29 year olds (47% to 22%). Obama also leads Clinton among all voters under age 65, Moderates (by a 45% to 25% margin), and among voters in union households (40% to 22%). . .

Among Republicans, McCain leads Romney among Independents 43% to 26%, voters over 50, Moderates (50% to 20%), women (36% to 25%), and in the North (45% to 21%, effectively knocking out Paul). It is tied between Romney and McCain with Republicans and men. Romney leads among Conservatives and Very Conservative voters.

Republicans NH Tracking

McCain 1-4/6: 34% 1-2/5: 31%

Romney 1-4/6: 29% 1-2/5: 32% . . .

[Huckabee fell from 12% to 10% over this period, actually losing momentum in NH.]

This is the fourth of five three-day tracking news reports to be released in advance of tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary. . .

The GOP and Democratic three-day rolling tracking surveys were conducted using Zogby International’s live operator call center in Upstate New York. The GOP rolling sample included 834 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The Democratic rolling sample included 844 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Both tracking survey samples were taken between Jan. 4-6, 2008.

[Methodology is here.] '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iran IRGC Ships confront US Navy

That the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps coast guard would play chicken with the US Navy is not that surprising. Enemies at sea often taunt one another, and I think there were similar feints by Soviet subs in the old days. (A kind reader pointed out that it even happened more recently with China.)

What is harder to understand is the Iranian government explanation, which was that the IRGC did not recognize the US naval ships as such. That isn't plausible, and besides, what other naval ships would the IRGC have a problem with?

It is the kind of explanation you would give when your nerdy crazy second cousin threatened to beat up a guest twice his size at your cocktail party. I.e., I don't think the incident was ordered from Tehran, but was some gung-ho local IRGC commander who'd been at sea way too long. I presume they thought the US was in Iranian waters (and the Iranians claim more offshore territory than the standard in international law).

Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei recently said that while it wasn't desirable right at the moment, Iranian diplomatic relations with the US in the future were not out of the question. So if anything the top leadership has been trying to ratchet down the tensions.

Here are the most recent entries from the Iranian press culled by the USG Open Source Center on the IRGC naval forces:

' IRGC Navy Conducts Final Stages of Persian Gulf Exercises (19 December) - The second and third stages of the Iranian Navy exercise "Courage 86" was carried out over an area of 7,000 nautical miles in the Persian Gulf. An IRGC naval commander, Brig. Gen. Ali Razmjoo, said that the second exercise included pre-emptive defensive and psychological operations, mine-laying operations, night-time tracking of vessels, and deploying frogmen from helicopters into the sea. The third stage included chemical defense, shooting targets at sea, intercepting vessels, and capturing hypothetical targets. Razmjoo said several hundred vessels, missile launchers, destroyers, and mine layers have been involved in a series of IRGC naval exercises in an area between northern Bushehr Province and Asalouyeh over a four-day period (IRNA).

Iran Kicks Off War Games in 7,000-Mile Persian Gulf Area (18 December) - Designed to ensure it can protect the nation's territorial waters, islands, and coastlines, as well as neighboring countries, from foreign threats, Iran began four days of war games in the Persian Gulf on 18 December. According to Press TV, the war games will be held in three stages in an area that encompasses northern parts of Iran's coastal province of Bushehr and the southern region of Aslouyeh. The war games will cover 7,000 square miles and employ hundreds of vessels and divers (Fars News Agency). '

The US says it won't protest the incident, which means that they concur it wasn't an intentional provocation from Tehran.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

NYT on Napoleon's Egypt

A review by Tom Reiss of my book, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East has appeared in The New York Times.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Blogging AHA

Claire Potter blogged one of my panels at the American Historical Association meeting. (Scroll down).

HNN also covered the session (scroll down) and even gives video of myself, Bruce Cumings and Marilyn Young.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

11 Killed at Army Day Celebration; 2 US Troops Killed Christians Targetted in Mosul

George McGovern is calling for Bush and Cheney to be impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors, including ordering hundreds of warrantless wiretaps on US citizens. Good for him. Even if a plan is impractical, if it is just it should be broached.

Guerrillas detonated four deadly bombs in Baghdad on Sunday. One guerrilla struck soldiers at an Army Day celebration, killing 11 and wounding 17. AP's photographer saw the event:

' Afterward, he said, the street was littered with bodies, weapons and shoes. Dazed soldiers and policemen carried their bloodied colleagues to nearby pickup trucks that whisked them to a hospital. "There was a severed head on the street and some of the soldiers that I was photographing earlier were dead. Those who survived panicked, pulling back from the scene and shooting in the air," said the 40-year-old Mizban. '

Another bomb killed a US soldier on Sunday in Baghdad (and another had died in Diyala that way on Saturday). AP adds, "In other violence, a parked car bomb exploded and four mortars landed near a bus terminal in eastern Baghdad, killing a civilian, police said. In northeastern Baghdad, a parked car bomb exploded outside a popular restaurant, killing a policeman and two civilians, police said."

In the northern city of Mosul, guerrillas targeted Christian churches with a series of bombings. Some church-goers were injured and there was damage to buildings. The number of Christians in Iraq has probably been halved, from 800,000, by the war.

A clan elder and 13 of his relatives were kidnapped in Diyala Province by Sunni Arab guerrillas on Sunday.

Ben Lando of UPI reports on the perilous situations in Basra and Kirkuk, Iraq's two essential petroleum-producing regions, over which ethnic and religious militias are battling.

FT's Steve Negus points to the problem that the Iraqi state is essentially a failed state and that sectarian reconciliation has, to say the least, made no progress, despite a decline in violence spurred in part by the US troop escalation.

More from the CSM on the foreign jihadis in Iraq, based on a West Point study. They are predominantly either Saudi or from North Africa.

Chalmers Johnson weighs in on 'Charlie Wilson's War.' The focus on this low-level congressman elides the activities of the CIA director, of the Reagan National Security Council, of the Saudis, and other high-level actors, thus falsifying history by omission.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bombings Roil Diyala; Driving ban Imposed; US Soldier Killed

Radio Sawa reports in Arabic that Iraqi members of parliament dismiss the pledge of US presidential candidate Barack Obama to end the Iraq War and withdraw US troops from the country. They say it is just campaign talk and that if Obama were elected he would swiftly become more realistic. (It is my firm impression that the Iraqi political class has unrealistic expectations of the US public. The likelihod is that most US troops will be out by summer 2010 no matter who wins, and if Iraqi politicians want to avoid being taken out and shot in the aftermath, they had better cut some deals locally soon.

Frank Rich, perhaps our most perceptive political commentator points to a continuing public discontent over the Iraq War as a key causal factor in the Iowa primary results, where the two candidates least associated with the war did best. I made a similar argument on Friday.

The LA Times reports on demonstrations in Buhriz and Muqdadiya by members of Awakening Councils who are protesting the US arrest of two of their number. The Awakening Council members are often former insurgents or criminals who now take $10 a day to fight the Salafi Jihadis. But some are double agents, or just can't shake criminal habits. The problem is that those who join the councils develop a tribal solidarity with one another, which is likely to bedevil the US and the Iraqi government. In the capital of Diyala Province, Baquba, the security situation is so bad that the US and the Iraqi government imposed a ban on the driving of private vehicles. Likewise, they banned traffic in two other cities. Such bans have worked in Fallujah and in Baghdad neighborhoods to cut down on car bombings, but they typically produce massive unemployment and hurt the retail sector.

The traffic bans in Diyala, however, did not stop several bombings from being implemented. RTE News writes, "A 24-hour traffic ban was enforced yesterday in major cities in Diyala in a bid to curb violence. Despite this, six people were killed when their minibus was blown up by a roadside bomb near the town of al-Sadiyah, 100km northeast of the provincial capital, Baquba. In Baquba itself, a roadside bomb killed one person and injured another."

Also in Baghdad, Reuters says, "BAGHDAD - Four mortar bombs wounded three rubbish collectors and a girl in Adhamiya district in northern Baghdad, a hospital source said."

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that a Baghad commander of Awakening Council troops insists that a majority of the Council members are former Baathists.

McClatchy reports more details on political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

'7 civilians were wounded in an IED explosion inside a mini bus on al Salam bridge that links between Doura and New Baghdad neighborhoods around 3,00 pm.

Police found 12 anonymous bodies in Baghdad today . . .

Diyala

Six civilians (3 men, 2women and a child) were killed and three others (2 men and a woman) were injured in an IED explosion that targeted a mini bus on Sa’adiyah- Khanaqeen Street northeast of Baquba today morning.

A civilian was killed and another was injured while a carriage was passing near the IED near the Silo in the center of Baquba city today morning. When the members of Sahwa (the awakening) council came to help, another IED exploded in the same place injuring three members of Sahwa.

18 civilians were injured when an IED exploded inside a local market in Jalawla city northeast Baquba city around 5,00 pm. Two of the injured people were moved to Sulaimaniyah hospital because of their critical conditions.

An American soldier was killed in an IED explosion that targeted his vehicle while conducting a military operation in Diyala province. US army confirmed the news in a press released issued today.

Kirkuk

Police found a body of a young man near Sargaran area west of Kirkuk city. Police said that the body is of a young man from Arbil province and his name is Mohammed Ali.'

Baghdad, Diyala, al-Anbar, Salahuddin and Ninevah provinces were the most dangerous for US, Coalition and Iraqi troops in 2007, according to this op-ed in the NYT. I.e. the provinces where Sunni Arabs predominated (though that is no longer true of Baghdad itself, which now is probably 80% Shiite). Coming next was Kirkuk Province (Tamim), a center of civil war between Kurds and Arabs.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

3 US troops Killed; Dulaimi May be Charged; Najaf Raid

Iraqi parliamentarians are attempting to strip Adnan Dulaimi of his parliamentary immunity. They charge that he is complicit with terrorists. Dulaimi leads the 44-member [Sunni Arab] Iraqi Accord Front in parliament. US forces found weapons and bombs in a house next to his.

These developments came as a blow to hopes for reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites in the Iraqi government.

In an Arabic interview, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki denied that he opposed sectarian reconciliation. He said he supported the tribal levies or Awakening Councils, contrary to what had been reported. He said he was imply concerned that some criminals might take advantage of the councils as a front for the commission of crimes. He did however indicated 'fundamental' differences with the Iraqi Accord Front of Tariq al-Hashimi (the VP).

Sawt al-Iraq reports that Sadr al-Din Qubanji, preacher at the mosque of the Shrine of Ali in Najaf and a member of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq, warned that the Sunni Awakening Councils might become sinister paramilitaries. This at a time when his party's leader, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, is making more conciliatory noises about the Sunni Awakening Councils.

Radio Sawa reports in Arabic that Iraqi security forces raided a Shiite religious edifice in Basra and arrested 17 members of the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr.

Michael Schwartz adds an 11th to my top ten myths about Iraq, 2007.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Friday.

Baghdad

- Around 8.30 a.m., a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol at Shoala high way ( north west Baghdad). No casualties reported.

- Around 3 p.m., a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol at Al-Mawal intersection at Palestine street .No casualties reported ,but damage to one of the vehicles , police said.

- Police found two unidentified dead bodies in the following neighborhoods in Baghdad: One was found in Mahmoudiyah in southern Baghdad ( Karkh bank ) while the second dead body was found in Suleikh in northern Baghdad ( Risafa bank ) .

Najaf

- At 4.30 a.m. of Thursday, a joint forces raided the Rahma neighborhood in Najaf ( 5 km to the north of Najaf city ) with air cover inuring four people and arresting 6 others besides two of the forth injured ones, a member of Sadrists office in Najaf said .While the American army sent us this report “ In an Iraqi Army-led operation, nine suspected militants were detained in Najaf on 3 January. During the operation, ground forces were attacked with small arms fire and a grenade. Ground forces responded in self defense, wounding two, who were treated on site and then transported to a medical facility.

Maysan

- At 7.m., a tanker filled with fuel was exploded at the northern check point of Ammara city ( 390 km south of Baghdad) during its being searched by policemen in that checkpoint .Two policemen were killed and others were injured in that incident

Reuters reports political violence on Thursday:

' DIYALA PROVINCE - Two U.S. soldiers were killed and one injured in a small-arms fire attack in Diyala province, the U.S. military.

* SOUTH OF BAGHDAD - The U.S. military reported one of its soldiers had been killed on Wednesday by a roadside bomb south of Baghdad.

* MOSUL - A rocket propelled grenade struck a police checkpoint killing three policemen and wounding four in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

* TAL AFAR - Two civilians, including one child, died when U.S. forces returned fire after a roadside bomb struck a convoy that included the police chief of the town of Tal Afar 420 km (260 miles) northwest of Baghdad, Iraqi police Brigadier-General Mohammed al-Wagaa said. The morgue in the town confirmed the deaths of the two civilians. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed two people and wounded five when it exploded in Baghdad's southern outskirt of Zaafaraniya, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded four street cleaners in the New Baghdad district of the capital, police said.

BAGHDAD - A Katyusha rocket killed one person and wounded two when it landed on a house in western Baghdad's Shi'ite Washash neighbourhood, police said.

BAGHDAD - The bodies of three people were found in Baghdad on Wednesday, police said.

HAWIJA - Gunmen in a car attacked a checkpoint manned by members of the Awakening council, neighbourhood patrol volunteers fighting with the U.S. and Iraqi forces against al- Qaeda, wounding three of them in the town of Hawija, 180 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - Clashes erupted between gunmen and the police killing one policeman and wounding two on Wednesday in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. police detained 16 suspected insurgents after the clashes. '

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Iraq, the Youth Vote, Women and Iowa

The conventional wisdom among the inside the beltway pundits is that Iraq is no longer a leading issue for American voters.

This conventional wisdom is demonstrably untrue. First, some December polls (scroll down) show that it was the most important issue for 25% of likely voters, with other issues trailing substantially.

In part it derives from conceptual confusion. In some polls, Iraq is no longer the single issue for voters that outweighs all others in importance. But it is still one of three major issues that come at the top of voter concern, sometimes tied with health care or education or the economy. That it is tied with health care does not mean it isn't important to voters. It means it is just as important to them as the health of themselves and their loved ones, which is to say, it is very important.

Let us take likely Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire. As of mid-December, this is what Rasmussen found:

Eighty percent (80%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in New Hampshire say that Health Care is a Very Important voting issue. Seventy-five percent (75%) say the same about the economy, 71% attach the same importance to Government Ethics and Corruptions, and 70% say Iraq is a Very Important voting issue.

Likewise, Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll found in early December that:

' The war in Iraq, health care, and the economy continue to outpace other concerns in the minds of likely New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary voters. 26% of likely voters cite the war in Iraq as the most important issue followed by 22% who are concerned about health care and 17% who mention the economy. Among likely voters who see the war in Iraq as the top issue in this election, Hillary Clinton runs neck and neck with Barack Obama. Clinton draws considerable support from likely voters concerned about health care and the economy. '

Further, Iraq is more important for some voters than for others.

New Hampshire women voters, for instance, are very concerned about Iraq:

'On some issues, there is a notable distinction between New Hampshire women and women in the rest of the country. Iraq and health care are hotter issues in New Hampshire and education and the economy are somewhat lower priorities. '

Or let's take the youth vote. A poll released Dec. 5 by Harvard's Institute of Policy, based on a big weighted sample of over 2500 likely voters aged 18-24, showed that:

' . . . Iraq and the War in general is still the top national concern of America’s youth today (37%) . . . [but] nearly one in ten young people (9%) say that healthcare is the “national issue” that concerns them most – more than double the number seen in March 2007 IOP polling (4%). In addition, twice as many young people today favor a universal healthcare system (50%) than those who favor the current system (25%). '

Admittedly, youth are more concerned with Iraq than the general public, and Democrats are more concerned with it than Republicans. But 37% of young likely voters saying it is their number one issue is huge.

The conventional wisdom about the decline in relevance of Iraq is even more untrue for Iowans and for the specific sorts of Iowans who voted in the Democratic primary. What is distinctive about the Iowa primary is that Barack Obama got out the youth vote. As many persons under 30 showed up as senior citizens. That trend is new, since mostly voters had until recently been disproportionately older, whiter and wealthier than the general public. But young voters 18-29 are increasingly turning out to vote in larger numbers. And, they favor the Democratic Party 44% to 23% for Republicans. The youth deeply dislike George W. Bush and his policies, and they deeply dislike the evangelical sort of culture issues, since they just can't get excited about gay marriage and abortion being allegedly dangers to the American way of life.

Since so many young people showed up, and since Iraq is more important as a concern to them (they and their friends are the ones dying or in danger of being drafted if things go bad), it would be foolhardy to discount Iraq as an issue.

And what we see is that the candidate who did not vote for the Iraq War, who vocally opposed it from the beginning, beat the two other front runners who had voted for the war--even if they have now turned against it. The youth vote for Obama can't be explained by his superior policies on universal health care, at least as economist Paul Krugman reads the plans. Of course, opposition to the Iraq War is for younger voters part of a package. They see Obama as the candidate of change, and they want change. Change with regard to Iraq is however for over a third of them the key specific change that they want.

My own conclusion is that Clinton's record of having voted for the Iraq War and her vote on the Kyl-Lieberman resolution calling for the designation of an element of the Iranian military a 'terrorist organization' hurt her very deeply. It may well be that the Obama campaign's charge stuck to her, that Benazir Bhutto's death and instability in Pakistan came about because the US squandered its resources on an Iraq War, which Clinton initially voted for.

This exchange at a town meeting, reported by the NYT, seems to me decisive:

' At a town hall meeting in a middle school gym here, Ms. Dennett first hailed Mrs. Clinton’s health care reform effort in 1993-94 . . . My concern is your voting record on war,” Ms. Dennett said. “The friends I talk to, to get them on board, they don’t trust you because of your voting issue on war.” She added that she and her friends did not want Mrs. Clinton to be “a war president.” '

Nobody wants any more "war presidents," but most of all Iowan Democrats and independents.
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Iraq in Iowa; Bomber Kills 10 in Diyala; Petraeus: US Cannot Organize Return of Refugees

Update: Zogby et al. is showing a last minute boost among voters for Obama and Huckabee in Iowa. But obviously many Iowans are undecided and the race is extremely volatile.

Activists campaigning down to the wire in Iowa are invoking stances on the Iraq War. Joshua Holland argues that among the three leading Democratic candidates only John Edwards will completely and quickly get out of Iraq.

Michael Moore contemplates the Democratic frontrunners without giving any an endorsement. It seems to me he is leaning toward Edwards, though.

Meanwhile, Romney has finally come out and has slammed Bush's handling of the Iraq War. (For the Republican candidates, it wasn't bad to unilaterally invade and occupy a country that had not attacked the US. It was just bad to do it incompetently.)

Back in Iraq, a suicide bomber in Tarmiya near Baquba threw himself on a car driven by a member of a local awakening council, killing 10 and wounding 44. Diyala province northeast of Baghdad is ethnically mixed and has been the main center of violence since attacks in al-Anbar declined from 400 a week to 100 a week. The attack probably reflected the rivalry between Sunni fundamentalists or Arab nationalists and the members of the Awakening Councils, which cooperate with the US and attempt to limit bloodshed in their neighborhoods.

Reuters reports political violence on Wednesday:

Baghdad

5 people (3 policemen and 2 civilians) were wounded in an IED explosion targeting police patrol in Shaab stadium intersection in Zayuna neighborhood east Baghdad around 10,30 am.

Police found three anonymous bodies in Baghdad today in the following neighborhoods (1 body in Sadr city, 1 body in Saidiyah and 1 body in Bayaa neighborhood.

Basra

Gunmen opened fire randomly targeting civilians in Al Abla area north Basra city early morning today. Two civilians were injured in the incident. '

McClatchy reports on the dilemma of the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis displaced from Baghdad to other Iraqi cities or abroad to Syria and Jordan. They are often facing straitened circumstances in their exile, but despite a reduction in violence in Baghdad, the situation is still not inviting in the capital. Plus, often somebody else is now living in their old home. Will the mostly Sunni Arab returnees have to fight hand to hand with the mostly Shiite squatters? Jamie Gumbrecht's article includes this important passage:

' Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said that goal would be difficult to meet, and he predicted violence as homeowners and squatters battle over property. Petraeus warned that some people will have to resign themselves to never being able to reclaim their homes.

"That is not ideal, not right, not legal, not a lot of things, but it is reality," he said last week. "This is just going to remain a very, very tough issue for some time."

Coalition forces will offer some aid, but Petraeus said he didn't have ground forces capable of organizing returns, settling property debates and maintaining safety. Those solutions will have to come from Iraqis, he said. '

The problem is that the government of PM Nuri al-Maliki is a Shiite government, and Sunni Arabs, at least, think it is complicit in the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from the capital. How likely is it that al-Maliki's security forces are going to bring Sunnis in large numbers back into, say, Shaab district, which used to be mixed? I hear something ominous in Gen. Petraeus's resignation here. A future ethnic war that the US might not be able to stop.

I can't imagine the Sunni Arabs, whether Iraqis or their coreligionists in the region, giving up on Baghdad and ceding it to the Shiites. So they are likely to organize over time to try to take it back. The oil monarchies of the Gulf are Sunni-ruled, and $100 a barrel petroleum gives them lots of resources with which to support the Iraqi Sunni Arabs. The US troop escalation had the accidental side effect of worsening the position of the Sunni Arabs for now, so that Baghdad must be 80% or so Shiite (way up from about 50/50 in 2003). As the US troops are drawn back down, the Sunni Arabs will come back. (Although the Iraqi government makes a big deal out of the returnees, in fact only a tiny number of people have come back, and some people are still leaving).

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic on a campaign by the provincial government of Basra to tear down the shop stalls and shacks that have been thrown up without any building licenses in the port city, often erected on sidewalks on other public space. On Wednesday, hundreds of protesters rallied against the campaign.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the United Iraqi Alliance has reaffirmed its support for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and its strategic partnership with the Kurds. The UIA is a coalition of Shiite reliious parties.
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Reading for Thursday

The Justice Department is going to investigate the destruction of videotapes of the interrogation of prisoners in US custody that showed torture. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi keeps asking what Bush has done that is impeachable. Shredding the constitution should count, and if that doesn't then this should.

Tom Engelhardt on how Bush took us to the dark side, i.e. how he tempted us into torture.

Barnett Rubin on vote rigging in Pakistan. A fascinating dialogue is emerging on some of these issues between him and his colleagues that is a testimony to the interactive character of writing on the Web.
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36 Dead in Baghdad Bombing; 23,000 Civilians Killed in 07;

After having celebrated New Year's Eve in style for the first time since 2002, Baghdad awoke on the first of the year to bad news. In a signature tactic of the Salafi Jihadis in Iraq, a suicide bomber detonated his payload at a Shiite commemoration for the departed in Zayouna, a mixed neighborhood of east Baghdad, killing 36 and wounding dozens. The first chapter of the Qur'an was being recited for Nabil Hussein Jasim, a retired Lt. Colonel, who had himself been killed in a suicide bombing at Tayaran Square on Dec. 28, which had killed 14 persons. Killing people and then bombing their funerals or commemoration ceremonies has been a frequently used method of terror for Sunni Arab guerrillas. After all, what a terrorist wants is a crowd that is distracted where a stranger would not stand out. Funerals fit the bill, and it is easy to arrange for there to be a funeral, they just whack someone. Killing a retired officer has the bonus for the terrorist that other officers and police officials will probably attend his funeral, where they can be bombed. (That happened here.) The bombing underlined the truth of the warnings recently issued by Gen. David Petraeus that the path to social peace in Iraq would be long, hard and uneven. You kind of wish that the more rightwing sections of the American press had his realism.

The Iraq Body Count reports:

' Another 22,586–24,159 civilian deaths have been recorded in 2007 through Iraq Body Count’s extensive monitoring of media and official reports. . . These figures . . . show beyond any doubt that civil security in Iraq remains in a parlous state. Figures for the most recent months indicate that violence in Iraq has returned to the monthly levels IBC was recording in 2005, a year which was itself (until 2006) the worst since the invasion . . .

Reuters gives us a cautionary tale about one of those "Awakening Councils" among the Sunni Arabs, which even the Sadr Movement is afraid will turn into ethnic militias as the Americans leave:

'BUHRIZ - Police arrested Thamir al-Akkash, a member of neighbourhood patrols in Diyala province, after they discovered he was still helping al Qaeda militants, Diyala police chief Major-General Ghanim al-Qureyshi said. Akkash was arrested in the town of Buhriz, 60 km (35 miles) northeast of Baghdad.'

So how many of the other 70,000 still have ties to the Salafi Jihadis?

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that in Dur, the US arrested Baathists connected to Izzat Ibrahim Duri a former high official in the Saddam Hussein regime who now heads the main Baathist cell. Baathists throughout the Sunni Arab regions commemorated the death of Saddam Hussein on Monday.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that a threatened strike by the Teachers Union has been averted for the moment. The union suspended strike calls after receiving assurances from the Iraqi government that it would study their demands, which include higher salaries.
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Pakistan Elections Postponed; PPP Threatens Street Protests; OSC: Al-Qaeda has not Claimed Bhutto Killing

Pakistan's electoral commission announced Tuesday that the elections scheduled for January 8 will be postponed until February. The Pakistan People's Party objected strenuously to the delay, and threatened to take to the streets with popular protests.

Meanwhile, the caretaker government is furiously backtracking on its earlier claims that Benazir Bhutto died of a concussion. The retraction comes after videotape surfaced that shows her being shot. The Pakistani public has been enraged by the appearance of a cover-up in official pronouncements on the cause of her death.

Barnett Rubin's most recent posting on Pakistan's crisis and Bush administration policy is a college education all on its own. Read, and grow learned. It is also a sensitive and searching deconstruction of the Bush administration's 'war on terrorism' rhetoric and its practical meaning for Pakistani and Afghan politics. And it is written by one of the world's great experts on the Taliban and al-Qaeda, who actually knows Afghanistan and Pakistan intimately.

The USG Open Source Center sent out the following note, which points out that in scouring jihadi web sites, the analysts have found none where al-Qaeda has taken credit for assassinating Benazir Bhutto. You think of the announcement by al-Qaeda posted the morning of 7/7/05 when the London Underground was bombed. Yet they are not claiming this one. Curioser and curioser:

"FYI - - No Al-Qa'ida Claims for Bhutto Assassination Found on Jihadist Websites
Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
Monday, December 31,

FYI: No Al-Qa'ida Claims for Bhutto Assassination Found on Jihadist Websites

As of 1830 GMT on 31 December, OSC has not observed any official statements from Al-Qa'ida claiming responsibility for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto on any of the websites that normally disseminate authenticated statements from the group. OSC will continue to monitor these websites for any such claims. "
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How Fleeting is Empire

The Maps of War site has a review of Middle Eastern empires beginning about 1800 BC. I'd have added a couple of phases at the end, including the Cold War divisions of states by their alliances with the US and the Soviet Union, and then the new US empire in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus bases in some of the Stans of Central Asia and Qatar and Kuwait.

It reminded me of Percy Bysshe Shelley's poem, "Ozymandias:"

I met a traveler from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed.

And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"

Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

(1818)

Here's the Youtube version:


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Musharraf's Watergate? Physicians Coerced by Military; Nawaz: Musharraf Must Go

It looks increasingly as though someone in the military government in Pakistan may have been somehow complicit in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

An attorney for the physicians who put out the story that Ms. Bhutto died of a concussion went to CNN on Monday and said that his clients were pressured by the military. They appear not to have actually agreed with the concussion story, and felt coerced but could not speak out because they had been threatened with being fired if they did.

So what we can conclude is that elements in the Pakistani military forced government physicians to deny that Bhutto was shot. But newly surfaced videotape shows conclusively that she slumped after shots rang out; and she did not throw her head back against the sun roof lever as the physicians were coerced into maintaining.

So, why did these military elements make the physicians file a false report? About that we can only speculate. But it should be noted that lying about a crime is usually a sign of guilt. If the military was completely uninvolved, why should it care how she died?

You could construct a speculative scenario in which the shooter used a standard army issue revolver (I'm not a hardware guy, but I think that would be a .38) because he saw a target of opportunity, but that Plan A had been to detonate a belt bomb. If he used a service revolver, that would raise the question of who gave it to him and why. What if the bullet were found, say at the crime scene? If Benazir were not struck by a bullet, then the army could always maintain that it was fired by a soldier on the scene in the midst of the chaos, and was aimed at the perpetrators. But if she was killed by the army bullet, then it could not be explained away. (In fact, the bullet has not been found, but someone may have been afraid it would be).

Motive? Well, the military's suspicions of her would have been rather heightened in mid-November when she reacted heatedly to then Gen. Musharraf's declaration of a state of emergency:

'“It is time for him to go. He must quit as President,” she said as police detained dozens more of her supporters on the tenth day of a state of emergency. “There are no circumstances in which I could see myself serving with General Musharraf.” '

She later reconsidered, but there are some things you cannot take back. For instance, say you threatened a Mafia don that you would pull his guts up through his nose. Then later you said you didn't really mean it.

The government stonewalling on the issue of an autopsy and the coercion of government employees to toe a pre-determined line, smells to high heaven of complicity. It could be incompetence or stupidity, of course. And the Pakistani military is not all one thing. There is the Inter-Services Intelligence, some members of whom have long ties to Muslim militants. There is the officer corps, etc.

Three further notes: The Pakistan People's Party members and other opponents of Musharraf already were thinking like this before circumstantial evidence emerged that made it even more plausible. I fear their conviction will now be unshakeable, which does not bode well for social peace. It would be a feud.

Second, the physicians would not have had their lawyer speak out about their having been coerced by the military if they thought that Musharraf was likely to continue in office. That is, they have made a bet on a PPP prime minister and are more afraid of being punished by the new government than they are of being punished by the old one. Do they think the old one is about to be overthrown?

And, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, head of the Muslim League (N), called Monday for Musharraf to resign, saying of him, "He is a one-man calamity and the source of all the problems. The country is burning."

Oooops?

---

PS McClatchy says Benazir was about to go public with charges that the Inter-Services Intelligence had intended to fix the elections in favor of Pervez Musharraf.

PPS A kind reader pointed out that the Pakistani military had taken over security for Benazir's appearance at Liaqat Bagh, raising questions about how a gunmen and bomber got through.
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