Fact Check on McCain and Political Progress in Iraq

John McCain has been running mainly against Barack Obama in recent days, and has been running on the successes he says that the Iraqi government has racked up.

McCain (and the US corporate media) manages to avoid noticing that Turkey has staged a major incursion into Iraq and still has ground troops there and is refusing US requests to withdraw! Ironically, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, the Turkish chief of staff used McCain's own language against the Bush administration, rejecting the idea of any timetable for withdrawal. He said Turkey could be in Iraq for as long as a year! Turkey claims to have killed 230 guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party inside Iraq in the past week. I mean, how great can the situation in Iraq be when our NATO ally has invaded the country we militarily occupy in order to kill guerrillas harbored by our Iraqi Kurdish allies, who have been slipping across the border for which we are responsible in order to kill dozens of NATO troops in eastern Anatolia?

Aljazeera English has video:



McCain is completely uninterested in the cost of the Iraq War. He hasn't seemed to notice that oil has surged to $103 a barrel, in part on fears of the effect of the Turkish incursion into Iraq.

McCain, who voted to go into Iraq and said it was "important" to do so, does not seem to have noticed that the price tag for it and Afghanistan is rapidly rising to $3 trillion to $5 trillion over the long term, or $10,000 for each man, woman and child in America. For a family of four, that is $40,000 or a whole year's salary that George W. Bush has stolen from us and given to his friends at Halliburton, Hunt Oil, Exxon Mobile, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Electric, etc., etc., etc. (See Tom Engelhardt on this and other morsels in Bush's Mulligatawny Soup of a war). Not to mention the nearly 4,000 killed in action and the thousands seriously wounded, with brain trauma, spinal injuries, confined to wheel chairs or forever impaired, who will need to be taken care of the rest of their lives (and guess to which address the bill will come-- not Crawford, Texas.) Is the war really unrelated to the growing bad times in the US economy?

Bush's loathsome toadies actually come out and say that all this spending of our blood and treasure is the price of security. But Iraq did not attack the US and was no danger to the US, and the Iraq War is actually actively producing a terrorist danger to our security, according to veteran CIA official and now security analyst Marc Sageman. All this is not to mention the invidious way the Bush administration has framed the terrorism issue, as Noam Chomsky points out at Tomdispatch.

Back to McCain: Running on the efficiency and effectiveness of the failed state in Baghdad would be an extremely risky strategy if in fact the US corporate media were telling the American people the truth (or even just anything) about what is actually going on in Iraq and Iraqi politics. So here is a fact check on two of the claims McCain is making about supposed political progress in Iraq. He has been touting a new law on the treatment of ex-Baathists (who are mostly Sunni and have been treated harshly, contributing to the violence). And he has been ecstatic about the passing of a law on the provinces and some other measures, like the budget. But is any of these laws really likely to lead to ethnic reconciliation?

In his recent response to a measure introduced by Senator Russ Feingold aimed at ending the Iraq War, John McCain ridiculed Iraq War critics who doubted the surge and doubted provincial reconciliation (as at al-Anbar):

"In the face of these new facts, supporters of withdrawal changed their argument yet again. Maybe the surge had brought about greater security, they said . . . But this was irrelevant, they said, so long as national level political reconciliation is lacking – and since we can never expect that, the troops must leave. Yet they were wrong again. In January, the Iraqi parliament passed the long-awaited de-Baathification law that restores the eligibility of thousands of former party members for government jobs lost because of their Baathist affiliation."

In fact, the so-called "debaathification law" passed in January was ruined by the followers of Muqtada al-Sadr in the Iraqi parliament. Far from promoting reconciliation between Shiites, Kurds and ex-Baathists, it was roundly denounced by ex-Baathist parliamentarians such as Iyad Allawi and Salih Mutlak. The law may forcibly retire another 20,000 to 30,000 largely Sunni ex-Baathists from their jobs, and it excludes them from many important ministries. Allawi and others are afraid that its language aims at excluding them from politics altogether. The International Center for Transitional Justice warned (pdf) that the law would actually make for less reconciliation!

Sam Dagher reports from Baghdad,

' Iraq's parliament passed a new law on Jan. 12 amending de-Baathification legislation . . but critics say it is even stricter than the first and offers even fewer chances for thousands of embittered, high-ranking Baathists to return to the fold . . .

Izzat Shabender, a secular Shiite parliamentarian from the party of ex-prime minister Iyad Allawi, who was on the committee that dealt with the law, says senior Baathists that he's in contact with, mainly in Jordan and Syria, have rejected the law. "It did not solve the problem politically, which is the core of the matter." '

Now back to starry-eyed McCain (same link as above) on all that political reconciliation:

McCain: "Earlier this month, a provincial powers law passed that devolves a significant amount of power to the provinces and mandates new provincial elections by October 1 of this year. The parliament passed a partial amnesty for detainees that can facilitate reconciliation among the sects, and it completed a landmark 2008 budget."

Oooops. As usual, McCain is too optimistic too soon. The LA Times reports that:

' Iraq's presidential council Wednesday rejected a law on the powers of local government that was approved by parliament and touted by the Bush administration as a sign of reconciliation between the country's ethnic and religious groups. The three-man council asked that parliament reexamine the complicated and multifaceted law when it reconvenes March 18. '

The LAT notes that the rejection of this law could place in jeopardy the package of laws passed in February, which McCain boasts about, including the budget and the prisoner amnesty.

At the time, the way the laws were passed, without an individual voice vote of the members of parliament, was decried as unconstitutional, in any case. Now the most important of the three has been rejected by the presidency council.

The law on the provinces allowed the prime minister to dismiss provincial governors. Since the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq controls the provincial governments of much of the Shiite south, it doesn't want the federal government to be able to remove them and so weaken ISCI's power base. Likewise, the Kurds are very suspicious of any move to strengthen the central government, because of their memory of Saddam Hussein's brutal interventions against them from Baghdad.

But the law also had set provincial elections for October 1, and this was something the Sunni Arabs very much wanted, since they boycotted the first round of provincial elections and so their provinces don't have representative governments.

The Islamic Supreme Council, in contrast, is afraid that if new provincial elections are held, it might be swept from power in Baghdad and much of the south by the followers of Muqtada al-Sadr, who are Iraqi nativists and see ISCI as an Iranian cat's paw.

So, the political progress of which McCain boasted, and which he threw in the face of Senator Feingold and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, has largely been a chimera. Even where parliament has passed laws, there is no evidence that they have contributed or will contribute to actually reducing ethnic and sectarian hatred in Iraq.

McCain argues that violence is down in 17 of 18 provinces. That argument itself suggests the irrelevancy of the US to Iraq. There are no US troops to speak of in the 3 northern Kurdish provinces, or in the southern 4 provinces from which the British have largely withdrawn. There are few US troops in most of the 8 provinces where Shiites predominate. There was no troop escalation or "surge" in the Sunni al-Anbar province. So if violence has declined in 17 of 18 provinces, US policy cannot possibly have anything to do with most of that. General Petraeus has had significant successes in Baghdad, though at the unfortunate (an unintentional) cost of further turning it into a Shiite city from which most Sunnis have been ethnically cleansed. But Petraeus is doing the practical work of trying to make a bad situation better, and makes no claims for success in the political realm in Iraq. McCain is, in contrast, just doing US domestic politics with those hard won achievements of our suffering troops, and is mostly just running on pie in the sky.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Burke's Peerage: Queen Elizabeth II Descended from the Prophet Muhammad

I was surprised that the writers of comments over at Salon.com did not know the below. It is common knowledge to anyone interested in genealogy.

I know that it is hard for people invested in a hard East/ West dichotomy to imagine that the icon of Western civilization, the British royal family, has Arab Muslim antecedents (along with a host of other nationalities of course.) But it does.

The Greater Mediterranean got all mixed up over millennia. Most Sicilians (i.e. most Italian-Americans) also have Arab Muslim ancestors. It works the other way around, too. It is obvious that a lot of Egyptians, Lebanese and Jordanians have descent from the Christian European Crusaders.

This is connected to just pointing out that having ancestors named Hussein is more common among Europeans and Americans than is usually realized. Elizabeth II can't be descended from the Prophet Muhammad without also being descended from his grandson, the original Husayn / Hussein, since that is the line of descent of the Sayyids.

'United Press International
October 10, 1986
MOSLEMS IN BUCKINGHAM PALACE


Mixed in with Queen Elizabeth's blue blood is the blood of the Moslem prophet Mohammed, according to Burke's Peerage, the geneological guide to royalty. The relation came out when Harold B. Brooks-Baker, publishing director of Burke's, wrote Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher to ask for better security for the royal family. ''The royal family's direct descent from the prophet Mohammed cannot be relied upon to protect the royal family forever from Moslem terrorists,'' he said. Probably realizing the connection would be a surprise to many, he added, ''It is little known by the British people that the blood of Mohammed flows in the veins of the queen. However, all Moslem religious leaders are proud of this fact.''

Brooks-Baker said the British royal family is descended from Mohammed through the Arab kings of Seville, who once ruled Spain. By marriage, their blood passed to the European kings of Portugal and Castille, and through them to England's 15th century King Edward IV. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Obama Scores against McCain

So first came the question posed by Tim Russert and Barack Obama's answer in Tuesday evening's debate in Cleveland, which went like this according to the official transcript:

' MR. RUSSERT: . . . do you reserve a right as American president to go back into Iraq, once you have withdrawn, with sizable troops in order to quell any kind of insurrection or civil war?

SEN. OBAMA: . . . Now, I always reserve the right for the president -- as commander in chief, I will always reserve the right to make sure that we are looking out for American interests. And if al Qaeda is forming a base in Iraq, then we will have to act in a way that secures the American homeland and our interests abroad. So that is true, I think, not just in Iraq, but that's true in other places. That's part of my argument with respect to Pakistan. . .'

Note that Obama was simply responding to Russert's hypothetical, which assumed that the US was already out of Iraq but that in the aftermath, there was "insurrection" or "civil war." The world that Russert imagined was presumably one in which Iraq had firmed up enough for the US to get out, but then at some later time it developed substantial civil unrest. Russert was presumably attempting to find out if the Democratic candidates were adopting an isolationist position, of getting out and staying out. Obama implied that no, if al-Qaeda came back to Iraq and formed a new base years from now, he would "act" in such a way as to "secure American interests." He is not an isolationist. Note that he was not specific about how exactly he would act.

So then, according to MSNBC, McCain tried to make some hay, admitting he had not actually heard Obama's exact statement.

' “…I am told that Senator Obama made the statement that if Al Qaeda came back to Iraq after he withdraws -- after the American troops are withdrawn -- then he would send military troops back, if Al Qaeda established a military base in Iraq. I have some news: Al Qaeda is in Iraq. Al Qaeda, it's called Al Qaeda in Iraq, and my friends if we left they wouldn't be establishing a base, they wouldn't be establishing a base, they'd be taking a country. And I'm not going to allow that to happen my friends. I will not surrender. I will not surrender to Al Qaeda.” '

But Obama had not said anything of the sort. He was answering a journalist's question about the future. That McCain cannot be bothered to get the exact quote before he puts words in his opponent's mouth and makes a lot of wild, inaccurate charges, doesn't suggest he could be trusted with sensitive diplomacy or other presidential tasks.

Moreover, the allegation that he makes about there being 'al-Qaeda in Iraq' that could well take over the country is part lie and part insanity. The Sunni Arabs are no more than 20% of the Iraqi population. How could a tiny minority from within them take over the whole?

The technical definition of al-Qaeda is operatives who have sworn fealty to Usama bin Laden. There were only a few hundred of them. I doubt whether more than a handful of such individuals are in Iraq.

So there isn't any "al-Qaeda" in Iraq in the technical sense. There are "Excommunicating Holy Warriors" (Takfiri Jihadis), i.e. devotees of political Islam who are violent and willing to deploy terror for political purposes. They declare other Muslims who disagree with them "not Muslims,"-- thus the "excommunicating" bit. But there are only a few hundred foreign fighters. A small minority of Iraqis has associated with them. They don't call themselves 'al-Qaeda in Iraq.' The major such group is "The Islamic State of Iraq." And to say that they have "bases" in Iraq is pretty grandiose. They have some safe houses and try to take and hold neighborhoods, so far with indifferent success.

The idea that this small minority of violent Muslim fundamentalists could take over Iraq is completely crazy. They haven't even been able to keep their toehold in Baghdad-- the Sunnis have been largely ethnically cleansed from the capital by Shiite militias.

So the Shiites would not allow an "al-Qaeda" takeover of Iraq. Neither would the Kurds. Nor would most Sunni Arabs (as in al-Anbar Province, where the Dulaim tribe is at daggers drawn with the Excommunicating Holy Warriors).

Moreover, the neighbors would not allow the radical Sunnis to take over. Iran would sit on its hands while Shiites were massacred in Baghdad? Secular Turkey would allow this development? Baathist Syria? Hashemite Jordan (which played a major role in tracking down and killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi)?

McCain's assertions that "al-Qaeda" has a strong position in Iraq or has any chance of taking over the country if the US leaves are both inaccurate. One is an error, the other is a dark but insubstantial fantasy.

Obama replied:

'“I've got some news for John McCain, that is there was no such thing Al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain decided to invade.

“I've got some news for John McCain. I've got some news for John McCain. He took us into a war, along with George Bush that should have never been authorized, never been waged. They took their eye off the people who were responsible for 9/11 and that would be Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, that is stronger now than at any time since 2001. I've been paying attention John McCain!

“John McCain may like to say that he wants to follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of Hell. But so far all he's done is follow George Bush into a misguided war in Iraq that's cost us thousands of lives and billions of dollars and that I intend to bring to an end so that we can actually start going after Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and in the hills of Pakistan, like we should have been doing in the first place. That's the news John McCain! '

Obama is correct that there was no al-Qaeda in Iraq before Bush overthrew the Iraqi government. I haven't been able to get anyone interested in it, but there is proof positive that the Baath authorities were very scared of al-Qaeda and that when Abu Musab al-Zarqawi showed up in Iraq, they put out an APB on him and branded him dangerous. (Dick Cheney told fairy tales about how Zarqawi was put up in fancy hotels by a solicitous Saddam.)

So to sum up, McCain shot from the hip. He grossly mischaracterized Obama's stance. He hadn't bothered to get the exact quote. Then he made wild and implausible statements about "al-Qaeda" in Iraq, alleging that they are capable of taking over the country. Then Obama let him have it with both barrels.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Barack Hussein Obama, Omar Bradley, Benjamin Franklin and other Semitically Named American Heroes

At Cincinnati, Bill Cunningham, according to the LAT, who "introduced presidential candidate John McCain at a rally here today accused Barack Obama of sympathizing with 'world leaders who want to kill us' and invoked Obama's middle name -- three times calling him 'Barack Hussein Obama.' " John McCain repudiated Cunningham's low tactics and said that using the middle name like that three times was "inappropriate" and would never happen again at one of his rallies.

I want to say something about Barack Hussein Obama's name. It is a name to be proud of. It is an American name. It is a blessed name. It is a heroic name, as heroic and American in its own way as the name of General Omar Nelson Bradley or the name of Benjamin Franklin. And denigrating that name is a form of racial and religious bigotry of the most vile and debased sort. It is a prejudice against names deriving from Semitic languages!



Christian, Western heroes have often been bequeathed Middle Eastern names. Rodrigo Diaz de Vivar, the medieval Spanish hero, carried the name El Cid, from the Arabic al-Sayyid, "the lord."

Barack and Hussein are Semitic words. Americans have been named with Semitic names since the founding of the Republic. Fourteen of our 43 presidents have had Semitic names (see below). And, American English contains many Arabic-derived words that we use every day and without which we would be much impoverished. America is a world civilization with a world heritage, something Cunninghamism will never understand.

Barack is a Semitic word meaning "to bless" as a verb or "blessing" as a noun. In its Hebrew form, barak, it is found all through the Bible. It first occurs in Genesis 1:22: "And God blessed (ḇāreḵə ) them, saying, Be fruitful, and multiply, and fill the waters in the seas, and let fowl multiply in the earth."

Here is a list of how many times barak appears in each book of the Bible.

Now let us take the name "Hussein." It is from the Semitic word, hasan, meaning "good" or "handsome." Husayn is the diminutive, affectionate form.

Barack Obama's middle name is in honor of his grandfather, Hussein, a secular resident of Nairobi. Americans may think of Saddam Hussein when they hear the name, but that is like thinking of Stalin when you hear the name Joseph. There have been lots of Husseins in history, from the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, a hero who touched the historian Gibbon, to King Hussein of Jordan, one of America's most steadfast allies in the 20th century. The author of the beloved American novel, The Kite Runner, is Khaled Hosseini.

But in Obama's case, it is just a reference to his grandfather.

It is worth pointing out that John McCain's adopted daughter, Bridget, is originally from Bangladesh. Since Hussein is a very common name in Bangladesh, it is entirely possible that her birth father or grandfather was named Hussein. McCain certainly has Muslim relatives via adoption in his family. If Muslim relatives are a disqualification from high office in the United States, then McCain himself is in trouble. In fact, since Bridget is upset that George W. Bush doesn't like her "because she is black," and used her to stop the McCain campaign in South Carolina in 2000, you understand why McCain would be especially sensitive to race-baiting of Cunningham's sort. The question is how vigorously he will combat it; he hasn't been above Muslim-taunting in the campaign so far. (And, the McCains really should let Bridget know that she is Asian, not "black." The poor girl; Bush and Rove have done a number on her, and Cindy's confusion can't help.)

The other thing to say about grandfathers named Hussein is that very large numbers of African-Americans probably have an ancestor ten or eleven generations ago with that name, in what is now Mali or Senegal or Nigeria. And, since so many thousands of Arab Muslims were made to convert to Catholicism in Spain after 1501, many Latinos have distant ancestors named Hussein, too. In fact, since there was a lot of Arab-Spanish intermarriage, and since there was subsequent Spanish intermarriage with other European Catholics, more European Americans are descended from a Hussein than they realize. The British royal family is quite forthright about the Arab line in their ancestry going back to Andalusia.

Obama, being a cousin of Dick Cheney on one side and having relatives in Kenya on the other, is just more and more typical of the 21st century United States.

So, anyway, Obama's first two names mean "Blessing, the Good." If we are lucky enough to get him for president, we can only hope that his names are prophetic for us.

Which brings me to Omar Bradley. Omar is an alternative spelling of Umar, i.e. Umar ibn al-Khattab, the second caliph of Sunni Islam. Presumably General Bradley was named for the poet Omar Khayyam, who bore the caliph's name. Omar Khayyam's Rubaiyat, in the "translation" of Edward FitzGerald, became enormously popular in Victorian America.

Gen. Omar Bradley, who bore a Semitic, Muslim first name, and shared it with the second Caliph of Sunni Islam, was the hero of D-Day and Normandy, of the Battle of the Bulge and the Ruhr.



Would Mr. Cunningham see Omar Bradley as un-American, as an enemy because of his name?

What about other American heroes, such as Gen. George Joulwan, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander of Europe? "Joulwan" is an Arabic name. Or there is Gen. John Abizaid, former CENTCOM commander. Abizaid is an Arabic name. Abi means Abu or "father of," and Zaid is a common Arab first name. Is Cunningham good enough to wipe their shoes? Is he going to call them traitors because they have Arabic names?



What about Congressman Darrell Issa of California? ("`Isa" means Jesus in Arabic). Former cabinet secretary Donna Shalala? (Shalala means "waterfall" in Arabic).

I won't go into all the great Americans with Arabic names in sports, entertainment and business, against whom Cunningham would apparently discriminate on that basis. Does he want to take citizenship away from Kareem Abdul Jabbar [meaning "noble the servant of the Mighty"] and Ahmad Jamal [meaning "the most praised, beauty"]? What about Rihanna ["sweet basil," "aromatic"]? Tony Shalhoub [i.e. Mr. Monk]?

Let us take Benjamin Franklin. His first name is from the Hebrew Bin Yamin, the son of the Right (hand), or son of strength, or the son of the South (yamin or right has lots of connotations). The "Bin" means "son of," just as in modern colloquial Arabic. Bin Yamin Franklin is not a dishonorable name because of its Semitic root. By the way, there are lots of Muslims named Bin Yamin.

As for an American president bearing a name derived from a Semitic language, that is hardly unprecedented.

John Adams really only had Semitic names. His first name is from the Hebrew Yochanan, or gift of God, which became Johan and then John. (In German and in medieval English, "y" is represented by "j" but was originally pronounced "y".) Adams is from the biblical Adam, which also just means "human being." In Arabic, one way of saying "human being" is "Bani Adam," the children of men.

Thomas Jefferson's first name is from the Aramaic Tuma, meaning "twin." Aramaic is a Semitic language spoken by Jesus, which is related to Hebrew and Arabic. In Arabic twin is tau'am, so you can see the similarity.

James Madison, James Monroe and James Polk all had a Semitic first name, derived from the Hebrew Ya'aqov or Jacob, which is Ya`qub in Arabic. It became Iacobus in Latin, then was corrupted to Iacomus, and from there became James in English.

Zachary Taylor's first name is from the Hebrew Zachariah, which means "the Lord has remembered."

Abraham Lincoln, of course is, named for the patriarch Abraham, from the Semitic word for father, Ab, and the word for "multitude," raham,. Abu, "father of," is a common element in Arab names today.

So, Mr. Cunningham, Barack Hussein Obama fits right in this list of presidents with Semitic names. In fact, we haven't had one for a while. We are due for another one.

A blessed and good one.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkish Army Kills 41 Kurdish Fighters; 4 Shiite Pilgrims Killed in Bombing; 8 Iraqi Soldiers Killed in Diyala

The Turkish military announced on Monday that it had killed another 41 Kurdish guerrillas inside Iraq. It claims to have killed 151 fighters of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) during the present operation. It admitted the deaths of 2 more Turkish troops, bringing the total loss for Ankara in this operation to 17 dead.

The Turkish ambassador in Washington said Monday that the goal of the incursion was the destruction of the 4,000 PKK guerrillas holed up in the Kandil mountains of Iraq. The Bush administration appeared to give that goal its support. Iraq, in the meantime, complains that Turkey has violated its sovereignty. Even the Sadrists, who have a lot of tensions with the Kurds over the issue of decentralization, demanded that Turkish troops withdraw from Iraq.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that national security adviser Muwaffaq al-Rubaie expressed concern that if the Turkish forces prolong their presence inside Iraq, eventually they would come into direct conflict with the Peshmerga, the paramililtary of the Kurdistan Regional Authority.

Turkey released new video of its aerial bombardment of Iraq on Monday. The voice over is Turkish, but it is worth watching at least some of it to gain a sense of the violence:



AFP reports that "Up to 10,000 protestors gathered in Diyarbakir, the main city in Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast, condemning the government for ordering the incursion. 'Terrorist Erdogan, hypocrite Erdogan,' they chanted."

Opinion polling had been showing that the PKK was extremely unpopular among Turkish Kurds. (The PKK had often killed Turkish Kurds that it considered "collaborators" with the Turkish government; moreover, 99% of Turkish Kurds are not separatists.) But Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erfogan is polarizing Turks and Turkish Kurds over this frontal attack on Iraqi Kurdistan.

It is easy to forget what precipitated this Turkish operation, but it was headlines this past summer and fall like this: "13 Turkish Soldiers Killed by Rebels."

This article in Today's Zaman suggests that one of Turkey's motivations for the operation was to divide Washington from its close alliance with Iraqi Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani, and to begin repairing the frayed Turkish-US alliance. Since the Bush administration had no choice but to tacitly approve and cooperate with a Turkish strike against a terrorist organization that has been killing NATO troops, it has inevitably angered the Kurds.

The Guardian presents video of the Turkish military operation in Iraq, as well as of a riot in Istanbul between pro-invasion crowds and pro-Kurdish demonstrators:



Unlike corporate US media, Aljazeera English is actually covering the Turkish-Kurdish issue and this clip includes interviews with politicians in Ankara and Irbil at the same time. Since it is all in English, you can't argue that the US news networks could not do the same thing if they cared to. It is sort of a racist practice in much of US corporate media that foreigners are almost never allowed to speak to an American audience with their own voices.



Political violence killed at least 16 persons in Iraq on Monday. Another band of Shiite pilgrims was targeted with a roadside bomb in Baghdad, which killed 4 and wounded 15.

Reuters video on the Arba'in processions of the Shiites in Iraq:



AFP also says that Sunni Arab guerrillas ambushed an Iraqi army patrol near Buhriz in Diyala province, killing all 8 of them, including their comanding officer, a major. The Iraqi army is largely Shiite, but Diyala is majority Sunni, so this violence had a sectarian cast.

McClatchy reports other political violence on Monday:

' Baghdad
. . . - Around 7:30 a.m., a roadside bomb exploded at Zafaraniyah neighborhood (east Baghdad) near Al-Noor mosque. No casualties recorded.

- Around 12:30 p.m., two roadside bombs exploded at the Qasim highway near the Shaab stadium (east Baghdad). Two people were injured in that incident.

- Around 2p.m., a roadside bomb exploded near Al-Dayer church. No casualties or damage reported.

- Around 4 p.m., mortars hit Qadisiyah neighborhood. No casualties recorded.

- Around 5:30 p.m., gunmen using Toyota sedan car opened fire on an army check point near the Um Al-Tibul mosque and ran away. No casualties recorded.

- Police found three dead bodies in Baghdad today. Two of them in Risafa bank : 1 in Ubaidi and 1 in Zafaraniyah while the third was found in Amil in Karkh bank.

Diyala

- Around 9 a.m., gunmen killed two civilians at the downtown Baquba bus station.

- Early morning, gunmen disguised in the Iraqi army uniform killed a woman at Dowasir village of Bhrz, six km south of Baquba.

- Diyala police found a mass grave for eight dead women at Salam village of Khalis, 16 km north of Baquba.

- Around noon, a roadside bomb targeted a civilian car on the way between Qara taba and Khanaqeen in the north east of Baquba. Both passengers of the vehicle were killed in that incident. . .

Salahuddin

- In the morning, a suicide bomber in a wheelchair targeted Brig. Gen. Abdul Jabar Rabiaa Salih, the assistant commander of Samarra operations. Salih was killed and an officer was injured.

Kirkuk

- Early morning, a roadside bomb targeted the patrol of Brig. Gen. Sarhad Qadir, the chief of police of districts and towns, near al-Jamhouri hospital in downtown Kirkuk. No casualties were reported, but there some damage to one of the vehicles.

Mosul

- Mortars hit a house at Tal Al-Ruman neighborhood in the city today. Three people were killed and four women were injured. All were from the same family.

Basra

- This morning, gunmen opened fire on three oil company guards at Bahadriya of Abu Al-Khaseeb, southeast of Basra. One guard was killed and the other two were seriously injured.

- Police found the body of the engineer Ali Mahmoud at Hamdan neighborhood in south Basra. Ali was kidnapped a month ago from his house at a residential compound by gunmen who were wearing police uniforms. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sartorial Politics

With reference to this story about Barack Obama dressing traditionally on a good will trip abroad:

Here is Bill Clinton doing the same thing:



And here is Hillary Clinton in Palestinian dress with Suha Arafat back in her even-handed, fair days:


and here is George W. Bush in Chinese robes with Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin (I can't decide whether this is evidence that Bush is a Manchurian candidate or if it is finally the explanation for his faux macho swagger-- surely this is the gayest picture of a president ever taken):



And here is John McCain wearing stole of Bush, the only costume mentioned here that should be embarrassing (and I take back what I said about the last picture):


For "cont'd" postings, click here.

60 Dead in Attack on Shiite Pilgrims; Turkish invaders Kill 33 PKK Guerrillas; 2 US Soldiers Killed; Stewart Skewers McCain

Between 40 and 60 Shiites were killed and 105 wounded on Sunday by a suicide bomber at Iskandariya in northern Babil province as they made their way south to the holy city of Karbala. Entire families were on the move together, so that the bombing killed or wounded many women and children. Many of the killed or wounded were struck by ball bearings from the makeshift bomb.

Alexandra Zavis of the LAT Times reports that the Iskandariya bombing was preceded by clashes between Sunnis and Shiites in the southwestern Dora district of Baghdad. On Saturday, Shiite crowds had taunted the Sunnis left in Dora that the highway through the neighborhood now belonged to them. Since many Sunnis have been ethnically cleansed from that area during the past year, the taunts stung.

Members of the Sunni Awakening Council (on the American payroll) went to the Iraqi army units in the neighborhood to complain about the Shiite pilgrims' taunting, and the army--mostly Shiite--attacked the Sunnis! A Sunni charged that on Saturday, "Army forces started shooting randomly at locals."

So then on Sunday morning more Shiite pilgrims come through on their way to Karbala, with Mahdi Army militiamen escorting them. First, Sunni guerrillas set off a roadside bomb. Then others threw grenades from a bridge on the pilgrims below. About 3 pilgrims were killed, and 43 were injured.

That is, the violence in Dora began as a conflict between the supposedly quiescent Mahdi Army and the US-backed Sunni Awakening Council! I suspect it is a microcosm of what will happen when the Sunnis come back to Baghdad from Damascus. (For the dynamics in Dora, see Nir Rosen's Rolling Stone piece, linked below).

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that a curfew has been imposed on Baghdad, as millions of pilgrims head for Karbala for the holy day later this week.

Guerrillas killed 2 US soldiers on Sunday. One was killed by a roadside bomb that also injured three other US GIs. Another died from small arms fire.

Turkey continued its ground and air operations against the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) bases in northern Iraq on Sunday, operations inside Iraq that left 33 PKK guerrillas dead and cost the lives of 8 Turkish soldiers.

Nir Rosen has been on the ground recently in Baghdad, not embedded, and he reports on the downsides of the troop escalation the Bush administration calls the "surge," which include the ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis of Baghdad and the US paying millions to gunmen who were al-Qaeda a couple of months ago.

Aswat al-Iraq reports in Arabic that the sheikh of the powerful Dulaim tribe in al-Anbar Province, Ali Hatim al-Sulayman,--a leader of its Awakening Council-- has demanded the dissolution of the al-Anbar Governing Council and new provincial elections in April. He maintains that the Governing Council runs a spoils system, giving out jobs in the provincial bureaucracy only to members of the Iraqi Islamic Party, which he says has been disastrous for the economy. I fear there is a budding conflict between the armed Awakening Councils and the elected Sunni officials in places like al-Anbar. Provincial elections are actually scheduled for Oct. 1.

John McCain is now not just saying that the US will be victorious in Iraq, he is saying flat out that "the U.S. has succeeded in its war in Iraq." McCain must have a special antonyms dictionary where words mean the opposite of what they mean. Or maybe he's depending on the US mass media not to tell the American public what is going on over there. He'd be making a pretty good bet; I watched a lot of news on Sunday and I barely saw Iraq mentioned. And this on a particularly violent day with a hot civil war and a Turkish invasion force on the ground. They spent hours on the cattier parts of the US presidential campaign.

But at least Jon Stewart made fun of McCain's over-optimism at the Oscars:



As if all this violence were not enough, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had to fly off to London later Sunday for medical treatment. Apparently the diagnosis done there a couple of months ago, of exhaustion, was incorrect and that the symptoms have recurred. For Iraq to be without an effective prime minister in the midst of several major, violent conflicts is not good.

The Turkish invasion of Iraq (I can't believe I'm writing those words) sent oil up to nearly $100 a barrel on Monday in Asia. The speculation effect here seems to analysts out of proportion to reality. Iraq has only been exporting 300,000 barrels a day from Kirkuk by pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. (And that is when the pipeline is not disabled by sabotage, as it frequently has been.) The Turks say that their operation will not interrupt that flow. But even if it did, 300,000 barrels a day isn't that much given the 87 mn. barrels a day global oil production.

McClatchy reports other political violence in Iraq on Sunday

' Baghdad
. . . An IED exploded targeting a US convoy near Salahuddin square in Kadhemiyah neighborhood north Baghdad around 10:00 a.m. The U.S. military said that the attack killed one US soldier and wounded three others. It also wounded an Iraqi civilian.

Around 12:30 p.m. an IED exploded targeting a US army convoy near the entrance of Hurriyah city northwest Baghdad. The US military said that three Iraqi civilians were injured. The Iraqi police said that five Iraqis were injured.

Around 12:00 p.m. Two civilians were injured when an IED exploded targeting civilians near al Kubaisi market in Zafaraniyah neighborhood southeast Baghdad.

Police found four bodies in Baghdad. Two bodies were found in Doura, one body was found in Waziriyah neighborhood and one body in Ur neighborhood Kirkuk

A civilian was killed and nine people were wounded (6 of them are Sahwa members including the leader of Sahwa Colonel Hussein Khalaf Ali and a commander of battalion in Sahwa) when a car bomb exploded targeting Sahwa members in Hawija town south of Kirkuk on Monday morning. . .

Basra

The police of Abo Al Khaseeb released a kidnapped young man (a student in the college of engineering) in Abo al Khaseeb town south of Basra city. The tribal police released two kidnapped civilian after chasing the kidnappers in al Abbasiyah neighborhood downtown Basra city '

Barney Rubin on the crucial political changes in the North-West Frontier Province, which is predominantly Pushtun, and what they mean for understanding the Pakistani Taliban and their activities across the border in Afghanistan. This piece is a must-read by someone at the cutting edge of this subject.

And, a warm congratulations to Josh Marshall of TPM on winning the Polk Award. Bloggers rock!
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Osama Bin Laden's "Second Life"

My column for Salon.com on "Osama bin Laden's "Second Life": In virtual worlds, does it take two terrorists to tango? And how much should we worry about those secret stockpiles of cartoon weapons?" Is now available.

By the way, Save the Internet.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Serbs Try to Attack US Embassy in Vienna; Munter Warns Serbia

Frances Trix of Indiana University and a long-time researcher in Kosovo gives the historical and cultural context of the Balkan crisis at our collective Global Affairs blog.

Kosovo independence from Serbia continues to provoke Serbian protests, including a rally of 6,000 in Vienna on Sunday that turned violent when 600 hooligans tried to move toward the US embassy, found that Austrian police had sealed it off, and then vented their rage on local shops and restaurants.

Isn't that actually a form of terrorism?

Angry protesters had attacked the US embassy in Belgrade on Thursday, setting fires and forcing an evacuation. US ambassador to Serbia Cameron Munter demanded better security for embassies in Belgrade on Sunday, saying, "I'm very angry at what happened . . . It had better not happen again."

For anyone who can't quite get the nuance here, I think Munter is saying that the Serbian government will be held accountable for any further attacks on the United States embassy in Belgrade. And, indeed, Sunday's events raise the question of why Austria can protect its US embassy but Serbia can't protect its.

Kosovo's emergence as a country in its own right raises the question of why Palestine should not also just declare its own independence.

On another crisis, don't miss Farideh Farhi's essay on the implications of the latest International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, a new letter from Gen. Berthier about the siege of Acre in Palestine.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

37 Killed in Turkish-Kurdish Fighting inside Iraq; Basra Instability Forces British to Postpone Departure

Turkish military land and air operations inside northern Iraq left 35 PKK guerrillas dead on Saturday, and two Turkish soldiers.

The PKK warned that it would blow up people in Turkish cities if the Turkish army did not withdraw. This threat would be more impressive if they hadn't already been blowing up people in Turkish cities.

Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari, himself an Iraqi Kurd, said of the operation, "if it goes on, I think it could destabilise the region, because really one mistake could lead to further escalation."

As if to prove Zebari's point, the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, warned the Turks of large-scale resistance if they advanced toward populated areas.

Aljazeera English has video:



Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the governor of Basra, Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili, has charged the Iranian deputy consul in that city of plotting his, al-Wa'ili's, assassination. He demanded that the central government look into the charges. He said that the Iranian consulate gave a large sum of money to one of his body guards to discover his exact itinerary.

Al-Wa'ili is from the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), and is at loggerheads with a majority of members of his own provincial council, including members of the Basra Islamic List and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. He claims he has been the target of numerous assassination attempts and hints that Iran was behind them.

The Islamic Virtue Party is a splinter of the Sadr Movement of Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr (d. 1999), which does not recognized Muqtada al-Sadr. The Islamic Virtue Party is a Muslim fundamentalist party but is Iraqi nativist, i.e. it does not like Iranian infulence in Iraq.

Among Fadhila's major rivals is the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq (ISCI), with its own paramilitary, the Badr Corps. So al-Wa'ili's charges have something to do with his rivalry with ISCI.

The instability in Basra is so bad that a planned drawdown of British troops from 4700 to 2500 by March seems likely to be postponed. The Guardian Observer writes,

'In an unusually frank analysis, Colonel Richard Iron, military mentor to the Iraqi commander General Mohan al-Furayji, said 'There's an uneasy peace between the Iraqi Security Forces [ISF] on the one hand and the militias on the other. There is a sense in the ISF that confrontation is inevitable. They are training and preparing for the battle ahead. General Mohan says that the US won the battle for Baghdad, the US is going win the battle for Mosul, but Iraqis will have to win the battle for Basra.' '

Gen. Mohan wants to have the back-up of British helicopter gunships and armor when the big anti-militia campaign is launched.

The article also says that "there is no one in charge" in Basra and that the militias actually exclude the army from some parts of the city!

' Asked who runs the city now, Iron, who has been in Basra since December, said: 'There's no one in charge. The unwritten rules of the game are there are areas where the army can and can't go and areas where JAM [Jaysh al-Mahdi or the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr] can and can't take weapons.' '

The problem for Iraq is that whereas Baghdad or even Mosul can be subjected to a vigorous military campaign without that causing the country to collapse, I am not sanguine that Basra can survive a frontal assault and still remain Iraq's import-export entrepot. And, if Basra is depopulated or sent into a spiral of violence similar to the Sunni Arab areas of the north, it will not hold Iraq harmless.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Saturday:

'Baghdad

- Around 7 a.m. mortar shells slammed into the Green Zone. A U.S. State Department spokesman in Baghdad confirmed the attack and said there were no deaths, injuries or significant damage due to the attack.

- Gunmen shot Shihab Al Timimi, the Iraqi journalists syndicate chief. He was injured in an area close to the syndicate's headquarters in Al Waziriyah.

- Around 2 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted civilians in Beirut square, killing one civilian and injuring two others.

- Iraqi police found three bodies, one in Shaab, one in Al Qanat area and one in Saidiyah.

Al Anbar

- Around 11 a.m. three suicide bombers wearing vest bombs targeted Ibraheem Teeri, a tribal sheikh, in Al Shiha town north of Fallujah, killing Teeri and two policemen. . . [The attack was on a training center for Awakening Council members.]

Salahuddin

- Around 9 a.m. a roadside bomb exploded in front of Nouri Khalil's house, a member of Beiji city local council. It killed Khalil's wife and son.

- Around 2 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted Iraqi police vehicle on a highway south of Samarra, killing two police officers and injuring three others.

- Iraqi police today on the Tigris River near Samarra chased a suicide bomber in a boat. The bomber was wearing a vest bomb and he detonated himself before the police could arrest him.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

1987: Biblical Checklist includes Support for Muslim Radicals in Afghanistan

The Associated Press

June 12, 1987, Friday, PM cycle

Religious Lobbyist Sees ''Christian-Bashing'' In GOP

A religious lobbyist says some Republicans, including Vice President George Bush, are engaging in "Christian-bashing" and may drive the religious right to form its own party.

Robert Grant, chairman of Christian Voice, criticized Bush for telling a joke about evangelist Oral Roberts. . .

Christian Voice is a lobbying group that issues a "Biblical Scorecard" on what it calls "the family-moral-freedom issues." They include not only abortion and school prayer, but also support for increased defense spending, "Star Wars," and aid to anti-communist insurgents in Nicaragua, Afghanistan, Angola and elsewhere. . .
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkey Invades Iraq; Sadr Renews Freeze; Bombings in Baghdad, Green Zone

I review the news below and don't somehow conclude that the US occupation of Iraq is a success story. I know we are paying a lot for our presence in Iraq. I can't figure out what the average American is receiving for the money. It isn't increased security, since Iraq is a training ground for terrorists who will likely hit the US or US interests in future. It isn't extra petroleum, at least not for us ordinary folks. Maybe the US oil majors will do well out of it. But even they say they can't do business in Iraq without oil legislations. And petroleum prices held above $98 a barrel on Friday. The Turkish invasion of Iraq was cited as one reason for the price increase. Instead of asking "are things hopeful in Iraq?" or "is there progress in Iraq?", the American media and public should be asking, "What are we getting out of all this?" That is the question the US Right fears most of all, which is why they ask the 'progress' question all the time. They only have two settings, "slow progress" and "progress." A burned out hulk of a city like Falluja? A sign of "slow progress."

Turkey, the NATO ally of the US, invaded Iraqi Kurdistan with between 3,000 and 10,000 troops and is facing heavy opposition from Kurdistan Peshmerga forces and from the Kurdish Workers Party paramilitaries. The Turkish military said in a statement 24 PKK rebels and five soldiers were killed in clashes in Iraq. It also said at least 20 rebels were killed in separate aerial attacks.'

The PKK has killed scores of Turkish soldiers in the past six months, and the Turks consider them a terrorist organization.

Muqtada al-Sadr extended his freeze on militia activities of the Mahdi Army through August.

Since the US is finishing off his hard line Sunni Arab enemies for him, and is restoring discipline to the Sadr Movement by arresting rogue elements not loyal to Muqtada, it is hard to see what the down side is for him in accepting to renew the Mahdi Army freeze.

A rocket barrage struck the Green Zone where the US embassy and other American offices are located.

As Solomon Moore of the NYT explains, Basra is a security mess rife with Shiite militias, assassinations, murders, kidnappings for ransom and gasoline smuggling on a vast scale.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Friday:

'BAGHDAD - A car bomb blew up in Baghdad's central Karrada district, killing one person and wounding four.

NEAR BAQUBA - Three mortars landed in a village of Buhriz, 60 km (36 miles) north of Baghdad, killing one child and wounding eight people. . .

NEAR FALLUJA - A suicide bomber killed at least six policemen and wounded nine others when he detonated a vest packed with explosives outside a mosque near Falluja in western Anbar province, police said.

GARMA - A suicide bomber on foot attacked an Iraqi security checkpoint, killing two people and wounding three in Garma, near Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

TIKRIT - A suicide car bomber killed three policemen and wounded eight others at a police station in Tikrit, 175 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

ISKANDARIYA - Two bodies with gunshot wounds and signs of torture were found in Iskandariya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

ANBAR PROVINCE - One U.S. Marine was killed in a battle with gunmen in Anbar province on Thursday, the U.S. military said.

NEAR FALLUJA - A roadside bomb killed Brigadier-General Abdul Jabbar al-Juboury, head of the Iraqi army's Falluja Brigade, and his driver on Thursday south of Falluja, police said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb killed at least one person and wounded four others in Karrada district, central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Five bodies were found in different districts across Baghdad on Thursday, police said.

NEAR FALLUJA - A parked car bomb killed one man and wounded two others on Thursday near a market in Falluja, police said.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Three Events that changed the World

Three things happened on Thursday that changed the world.

The victorious Pakistan People's Party, now the largest in the Pakistani lower house of parliament, has reached a deal for a coalition with two other parties. One is the Muslim League-N, loyal to former PM Nawaz Sharif, which has a quarter of seats in the federal legislature. The other is the Awami National Party, a Pushtun (Pathan) secular nationalist party. The coalition is explicitly an alliance against Pervez Musharraf, the longtime military dictator of the country, who is backed by Bush and Cheney. It is hard to see how this coalition will cohabit with Musharraf, now the civilian president.

Meanwhile the White House and the State Department appear to be confusing the Pakistani public by taking opposite stances on what needs to be done.

Nawaz Sharif, a junior partner in the emergent coalition, again called Thursday for Pervez Musharraf to step down. I think it will be hard for Sharif to let go of that aspiration. The danger is that it may bring the army in.

Second, angry Serbs attacked the US embassy in Belgrade.

Note that Neoconservative pundits kept telling us that there was something deeply wrong with Muslims for protesting when they were kicked or expelled, saying that look, the Serbs have been harmed by US policies but they don't go around attacking US embassies. I guess they'll have to find a new argument.

And given that the Serbs are Eastern Orthodox Christians, will the Republican Party and Fox Cable News now start fulminating against "Christofascism?"

Third, Clinton " only managed only a draw" in the debate with Obama She needed to fluster him into saying something that he should not. She failed. He looked strong, confident and presidential. It seems unlikely now that she can overcome his lead in pledged delegates.

It is a whole new world, but there are great dangers lurking out there--for the Balkans, for South Asia. And, the stability of Iraq is extremely shaky (see below).
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkish-Kurd Military Confrontation; Gunbattles Roil Basra; A Dozen Police Found Dead Near Baquba

While US troops keep a tenuous grip on Baghdad in the center, Iraq's two extremities-- Kurdistan in the north and Basra in the deep south-- are coming apart at the seams. Neither area has many US troops to fall back on.

In a tense confrontation, Iraqi Kurdish troops nearly surrounded Turkish troops who had made an incursion into northern Iraq on Thursday. McClatchy reveals:

' Iraqi Kurdish troops on Thursday encircled Turkish soldiers in northern Iraq and threatened to open fire in the most serious standoff between the two nation's forces since Turkey threatened late last year to go after guerrillas from the Kurdistan Workers Party sheltering in Iraq. The standoff began when Turkish troops in tanks and armored vehicles left one of five bases they've had in Iraq since 1997 and moved to control two main roads in Dohuk province, Iraqi officials said. '

Ultimately, the Turkish troops beat a retreat back to their base. But this is the stuff of which hot wars are made, folks. Baghdad politicians said they wanted to do something to forestall such an eventuality. What they would have to do is to send Arab troops north to guard the border with Turkey with orders to shoot on sight PKK guerrillas trying to infiltrate into Turkey. The Kurdish peshmerga are too sympathetic to the PKK to do it. But Turkey has a right to expect Iraq to prevent it from being attacked from Iraqi soil.

Four British troops were wounded, one seriously, by two roadside bombs that detonated as they passed through the outskirts of Basra to some other destination. Basra, always fragile, slid into turmoil on Thursday.

Heavy fighting broke out Wednesday evening into Thursday morning in Basra between offshoots of Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and the Iraqi army. Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the fighting took place all over the city. It was provoked by the arrest of Mahdi Army cadres in the Safwan border area (70 mi. south of Basra). Gunfire was heard in Basra in the Hayaniya, Qiblah, Tusiya and Jumhuriya districts. Basra police are planning to implement a new security plan to forestall such clashes and to end the almost-daily rocket attacks on Basra airport by militiamen.

The Iraqi army is being ordered to man checkpoints at key intersections in Basra, to reassure the investment companies that are expected to troop into the southern port city soon, to kickstart a wave of construction and development that was announced at a recent convention of the Basra Development Board.

The head of the Sadr Office in Basra, Harith al-`Adhari, denied that his organization hand anything to do with the attackers, describing them as rogue independents.

In Diwaniya to the north, Sadrist leader Abu Zainab al-Kar`awi told al-Hayat by telephone that gunmen driving police cars had set fire on Thursday to 4 houses belonging to Sadrists. He accused the popular committees affiliated with the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of responsibility for the arson, saying that ISCI wanted to exclude the Sadrists from the political process. He said several Sadrists had moved away from Diwaniya to Baghdad for fear of arbitrary arrest.

AFP argues that Sadr has benefited from his freeze on Mahdi Army activities for the past 6 months.

The LAT discusses how Iraq's hundreds of thousands of war widows struggle for survival. You kind of wish that the television news would notice this kind of story . . .

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Thursday:

'. . . Diyala

15 bodies were found in an area 15 km to the north of Baquba at 05:30 pm; ten were Iraqi Army, said Baghdad and Diyala Police. They were hand cuffed, blindfolded and shot to death. They were laid side by side, 6 inches apart and a thin cover of dirt was thrown over them. They have been dead for ten days.

An Iraqi police patrol found six male bodies and three female bodies buried in al-Ouhaimar Field in the Baqubah area . . .

Baghdad

Three civilians were wounded when a roadside bomb went off at 10 a.m. in the intersection near al-Shaab Stadium, Zayuna, east Baghdad.

Around noon Thursday, a mortar shell fell in Besateen neighbourhood, Shaab, north Baghdad injuring two civilians.

Around 2 p.m. Thursday afternoon, gunmen opened fire upon a car belonging to the Crimes Department killing First Lieutenant Ahmed Mohammed and injuring Lieutenant Colonel Hazim and one policeman near the Institute of Law in Waziriyah, north Baghdad.

At 2 p.m. Thursday, gunmen opened fire upon a pickup truck in al-Buhaira Square at the entrance of Sadr City, killing its driver, an employee at the Ministry of Transport.

Five bodies were found in Baghdad by Iraqi Police today. 1 in Palestine St, 2 in Waziriyah, 1 in Tobchi and 1 in Amil.

Anbar

Commander of Fallujah Brigade, the Seventh Division, Brigadier General Ahmed al-Juburi was killed when a roadside bomb targeted his motorcade. His driver was also killed and one security personnel seriously injured.

One civilian killed and another injured in car bomb explosion at an open air market, 37 km to the south of Fallujah.

Mosul

Five policemen were injured in a roadside bomb explosion that targeted a police patrol in Faisaliyah neighbourhood, central Mosul.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

5 US Troops Killed; 25 Dead, 70 Wounded in Violence; Turkey Bombs Iraq

DPA estimates that civil war violence killed 25 in Iraq on Wednesday and wounded 70. The dead included 5 US troops.

On Tuesday evening, 3 US troops were killed when their vehicle hit a roadside bomb in northwestern Baghdad (a Sunni Arab area). Another was killed on Wednesday by an RPG attack in Mosul, which left 3 other US troops wounded. Later on Wednesday a fifth US soldier was killed within 24 hours; he appears to have been killed by a roadside bomb somewhere south of Baghdad, but the exact circumstances of his death were not announced.

Turkish jets struck at suspected bases of the Kurdish Workers Party terror organization in northern Iraq on Wednesday. The Turks are also considering a land invasion of northern Iraq in a bid to root out PKK terrorists that have been attacking Turks and retreating to Iraq where they benefit from an American security umbrella.

A suicide bomber detonated his payload in a market in Muqdadiyah, Diyala Province east of Baghdad on Wednesday, killing 10 and wounding 15.

In Mosul, gunmen sprayed police at a checkpoint with machine gun fire, killing four and injuring another 4.

On Tuesday evening, 15 police were killed and 27 wounded when some of them were trying to defuse bombs in eastern Baghdad.

There is some question whether Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr will renew the six-month freeze on the activities of his Mahdi Army paramilitary The Sadrists feel taken advantage of, in the sense that many of their commanders have been arrested by Iraqi police or by the Badr Corps. I suspect Muqtada fears that should he continue the freeze, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and its Badr Corps paramilitary will use it to freeze out the Sadrists in the south from political office in the Oct. 1 provincial elections.

So to review, 5 US troops were killed within 24 hours; there was a market bombing in Diyala and a drive by shooting in Mosul; Turkey bombarded Iraq; and now the Mahdi Army may get reactivated.

Earth to McCain: Everything is not in fact hunky dory in Iraq.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

McCain's Holiday from History in Pakistan; Will any Old Military Dictator Do?; Lies about Obama

Barack Obama's spectacular win in Wisconsin has the GOP frightened. The Democratic turnout was much, much better than the Republican. The Democrats and independents are energized.



Senator John McCain could not get the independents out in Wisconsin, and the Republican turnout was lackluster. In politics, failure always produces bluster. McCain spoke after his primary victory in Wisconsin last night, casting himself as a voice of experience in foreign policy.

He said things like this:

' I will fight every moment of every day in this campaign to make sure Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change that promises no more than a holiday from history . . .

Today, political change in Pakistan is occurring that might affect our relationship with a nuclear armed nation that is indispensable to our success in combating al Qaeda in Afghanistan and elsewhere. . .

Will the next President have the experience, the judgment experience informs, and the strength of purpose to respond to each of these developments in ways that strengthen our security and advance the global progress of our ideals? Or will we risk the confused leadership of an inexperienced candidate who once suggested invading our ally, Pakistan, and sitting down without pre-conditions or clear purpose with enemies who support terrorists and are intent on destabilizing the world by acquiring nuclear weapons?'

These remarks were aimed at Barack Obama, and they are lies. McCain has repeatedly made this false charge, warning against sending troops to Waziristan. But Obama never advocated invading Pakistan with US ground troops. He said that the US should strike at al-Qaeda if it had actionable intelligence about its whereabouts in Pakistan, even if the Pakistani authorities refused to give permission.

This stance is US policy. In fact, George W. Bush implemented it with a Predator attack on an al-Qaeda leader in Pakistan just a couple of weeks ago, an attack that the Pakistani government declined to authorize. (Kevin Hayden concurs).



Actually, one of our overly deferential journalists should please get some backbone and just ask McCain what he would do if he had intelligence on Bin Laden's whereabouts in Pakistan and could not get authorization from Islamabad to strike at him.

I personally think that Obama was unwise to make the statement he did, because there are some things better left unsaid. But aside from pure pacifists, what American would not pull the trigger on that old monster Usamah if he or she had the chance? I mind McCain pulling a Rove and making hay with a policy stance of his opponent that he actually agrees with.

And I think there is good reason to ask whether McCain helped create al-Qaeda and the mess in Pakistan to begin with. It is time for someone to start holding the Cold Warriors who deployed a militant Muslim covert army against their leftist enemies accountable for the blow-back they created.

Moreover, does McCain really know much about how the world works? Does he really understand Middle Eastern history?

McCain thinks when "only' 4 US troops are wounded in a single day in Iraq, or when only 15 Iraqi police are killed in mortar strikes in a single day, that is a sign of 'calm' and that the 'surge is working' in Iraq, and it is all right for us to put up with these US casualties for the next 100 years and spend $9 billion a month on this boondoggle for his friends in Houston. He is part of a successful propaganda campaign, as Tom Engelhardt points out that has made Iraq disappear as an issue even though people die there every day and the US is hemorrhaging blood and treasure for goals that remain, to say the least, murky. McCain even manages to celebrate the defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq at the same time as he insists the US has to stay in Iraq a hundred years to fight al-Qaeda! Which is it? Either the surge has failed in its goals or it has succeeded. If it has succeeded, why do we have to stay? If it has failed, when will it succeed?



And, let's just consider the shaky dictator Pervez Musharraf, who just suffered a sharp rebuke from the Pakistani electorate, as I wrote about today in Salon.com. McCain appears never to have met a rightwing dictator he didn't like. McCain defends the dictator. Here is what McCain said about Musharraf late last December:

"Prior to Musharraf, Pakistan was a failed state," McCain said. "They had corrupt governments and they would rotate back and forth and there was corruption, and Musharraf basically restored order. So you're going to hear a lot of criticism about Musharraf that he hasn't done everything we wanted him to do, but he did agree to step down as head of the military and he did get the elections."

So in the building confrontation between democratic parties and the military dictator who trashed the rule of law, which would McCain support? What kind of relations will a president McCain have with the new prime minister of Pakistan if McCain is on record supporting the dictatorship that preceded?

The potted history McCain offers is wrong, and it points to the deep problems of authoritarianism and admiration for dictatorship in McCain's political philosophy. Pakistan was not a failed state before 1999, and in fact most of its political problems derived from repeated military coups such as the one spearheaded by Musharraf, as well as from the US government giving the Pakistani military gobs of money and enormous stockpiles of weapons, and winking at its nuclear program. In fact by "US government" above, we really could just substitute "Senator John McCain."

Pakistan's constitution prescribes a parliamentary government. When the military has allowed Pakistanis to go to the polls, they have elected moderate, centrist political parties such as the Pakistan People's Party and the Muslim League. Those parties have longstanding grass roots, cadres, canvassers, and loyal constituencies.

Bhutto was elected in 1971 as head of the PPP.


The PPP was overthrown in 1977 by Gen. Zia ul-Haq, a fundamentalist general who had his boss, PM Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto hanged on trumped-up charges in 1979 and who kept promising new elections that never came. Gen. Zia sponsored the Muslim fundamentalist Mujahidin that Ronald Reagan called "freedom fighters," and which included the early al-Qaeda. He also put enormous resources into making an atomic bomb. Nowadays a leader of that description would be part of Bush's axis of evil. But Reagan cozied up to Zia like a cat to catnip.

And McCain went out to cozy up to the military dictator himself, in February of 1984. McCain supported the Reagan jihad, cynically deploying radical Muslim extremists like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar against leftist secularists in Afghanistan.

Here is what McCain was up to when the radical Muslim extremist Gen. Zia was in power in Pakistan, according to UPI, Feb. 17, 1984:

'Senator John Tower, R-Texas, and Rep. John McCain, R-Ariz., arrived in the Pakistani capital Friday evening for the start of a three-day visit.

During their stay, the legislators will meet Pakistan's military president, General Mohammad Zia ul-Haq, and other top officials. . .

While in Pakistan, they will also visit an Afghan refugee tent village on the outskirts of Peshawar, near the border with Soviet-occupied Afghanistan.

On arrival at Islamabad airport, they were received by U.S. Ambassador Deane Hinton and Pakistani Defense Secretary Aftab Ahmad Khan.'

Now McCain is the big expert on problem solving in Pakistan. McCain is the Pied Piper of Hamelin; he'll be glad to get rid of your rat problem, but at the price of making your children disappear.



So lest we take any holidays from history, I have some questions for John McCain. Did you or did you not know about Gen. Zia's nuclear weapons program? Did you wink at it? If so doesn't that make you a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction to a radical Muslim extremist regime?

And what about this AP article from 1985:

' Rep. Tom Loeffler, R-Tex., presented the "Freedom Fighter of the Year" award to Afghan resistance leader Wali Khan on behalf of the U.S. Council for World Freedom on Oct. 3.

Loeffler called on Congress and the American people to "broaden support" for freedom fighters in Afghanistan, reminding listeners of America's own fight for freedom.

Congress has agreed to give $15 million in covert assistance to the Afghan cause, the first time the legislators have "stepped forward" with aid since the beginning of the conflict, according to Loeffler. . .

Accepting the award on behalf of Khan was Pir Syed Ahmed Gailani, head of the National Islamic Front of Afghanistan, for which Khan commands 20,000 resistance fighters.

Other congressmen who joined Loeffler included Rep. Eldon Rudd and Rep. John McCain, both Arizona Republicans. '

So how much support did John McCain give to the precursors of the Taliban in Afghanistan? To the budding al-Qaeda?

Despite what McCain says about military rule bringing stability, the opposite is the case. Never mind the dirty war in Afghanistan that led to the displacement abroad of 5 million Afghans, 3 million of them to Pakistan, and which helped destabilize Pakistan. Never mind the filling of Pakistan with machine guns and drug smuggling to support McCain's al-Qaeda "freedom fighters," which created a million heroin addicts in Pakistan. Karachi spiralled into virtual civil war in the mid to late 1980s under Zia. There were massive Shiite demonstrations against unfair Sunni fundamentalist policies of Zia. A Movement for the Restoration of Democracy began mobilizing political parties. Zia put Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People's Party under arbitrary house arrest.

Gen. Zia finally exited the scene in a summer, 1988, airplane crash. But he left behind 16 martial law amendments, among them a provision for the president, who is not popularly elected, to arbitrarily dismiss parliament and the prime minister. It would be as though Bush could fire Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and hold new elections whenever he liked, timing them so that the Republicans had an advantage.

That power of the president to just sack the prime minister was never legislated by any representative of the Pakistani people. It is a martial law amendment. It was legislated by Gen. Zia, friend of Muslim radicals.

So it was not the fault of the civilian political parties that the governments would "rotate back and forth," in McCain's words. Ghulam Ishaq Khan, who was never popularly elected president but rather got the post by a kind of default, kept dismissing the elected prime ministers.



As for there being corruption, la di da. The Republican Party, home of Tom Delay and Jack Abramoff, should talk about corruption. And as for that crack about civilian governments "rotating back and forth," isn't that a common thing in democracies? But the rotation wasn't anyway natural. It was a product of high-handed, dictatorial presidents exercising martial law powers and sometimes being blackmailed into doing so by powerful covert intelligence officials. The martial law amendment allowed presidents to dismiss three governments in a row.



And then the fourth civilian government, of Nawaz Sharif's second term, was overthrown.



The instrument was an illegal and extra-constitutional coup by Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

Musharraf was a hawk who backed the Taliban (and very likely al-Qaeda) in Afghanistan and who nearly provoked two wars with India. Yes, a pillar of stability, as McCain says. Quite right. Among the reasons alleged for his coup against Sharif was that he feared Sharif would back off from supporting the Taliban under Clinton administration pressure, and that Sharif would make peace with India at Washington's insistence. The very essence of stability.



Sharif had agreed to send in a special operations team to kill or capture Usama Bin Ladin in neighboring Afghanistan in 1999. When Musharraf made his coup, he reneged on the deal. I.e., Musharraf is indirectly implicated in the September 11 attacks insofar as he could have perhaps prevented them by taking out Bin Laden and he refused. Yes, as McCain says, a great pillar of stability.



The Pakistani military had created the political instability with its earlier coups and martial law amendments and creation of arbitrary, dictatorial powers vested in the president, which lightly disregarded the will of the people as expressed at the ballot box. And now in 1999, the military got rid of the civilian government altogether for a while, until in 2002 the US State Department pressured Musharraf to allow elections.

Musharraf did not dare actually run for office against a real opponent. He staged a "referendum," in which he got less that 50% of the vote, but since he had no opponent he could hardly lose. He rigged the parliamentary elections of fall 2002, ensuring that his Pakistan Muslim League-Q had a majority. He interfered with the PPP and the Muslim League-N so much that he let the Muslim fundamentalist parties take over two provinces and get 17% of seats in parliament. Some of these members of the provincial parliament from the fundamentalist parties were actually Taliban. Others had trained the Taliban or actively denied that al-Qaeda existed.

Far from "bringing stability" as McCain suggested, Musharraf has destabilized Pakistan in the past year, arbitrarily sacking the chief justice of the supreme court, provoking massive demonstrations, brutally invading the Red Mosque, and provoking a violent backlash in the northwest. This is stability?

And is this really the kind of government McCain supports? Are these judgments the fruit of his experience? Is this the kind of holiday from history he is going to take? Having backed the radical Muslim extremists in Afghanistan in the 1980s, having winked at Zia's dictatorship and nuclear program, having coddled Musharraf's authoritarianism, is McCain going to bring us more disasters like September 11, done by his good friends, Reagan's Freedom Fighters?

If so, by all means bring on the breath of fresh air instead.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Musharraf's Party Roundly Defeated; Fundamentalist Coalition Collapses in NWFP; PPP Likely to Form Next Government

Pakistan held its elections on Monday, which are fateful for the future of the country and also probably for the Bush-Cheney foreign policy. Bush and Cheney put most of their eggs in the basket of a military dictator, Pervez Musharraf, who has been on a self-destructive downward spiral during the past year that makes Amy Winehouse look level-headed.

By 2:20 am on Tuesday, out of 241 districts reporting, The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) was shaping up as the biggest bloc in the federal parliament, with 80 seats (33% of those in districts reporting) so far. The PPP had been led by slain politician Benazir Bhutto, but did not benefit from a sympathy vote to the extent that some observers had expected.

The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)--the PMLN--loyal to Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister, had won 64 seats(26.5%).

The other branch of the Muslim League, named "Q," had to that point done very poorly, winning only 37 seats (15%). Q supported Pervez Musharraf, the general who made a 1999 coup and who recently became a civilian president under irregular circumstances.

The Pakistan People's Party is relatively secular and slightly left of center. The Muslim League-N is right of center but traditionalist rather than fundamentalist (i.e. it is not militant, does not have imposition of Islamic canon law as its primary goal, does not require women to veil, etc. It is just Muslim big landlords and middle classes of Punjab and reflects their conservatism and traditionalism. Think rural Mexican Catholicism).

There are 272 directly-elected seats in the Pakistani National Assembly (the lower house). Once you add in women and minorities, there are 342. But those extra seats not directly elected are filled proportionally from parties in accordance with their proportion of the elected seats. So you can tell who won and who is powerful by looking at the 272.

The Pakistan People's Party may end up the largest party, with a plurality, but may need a coalition partner to form a government. Despite the rivalry between PPP and PMLN, the two could challenge their common enemy, President Pervez Musharraf, by making common cause. If current trends continue, even those two will not have the seats to impeach Musharraf, a move that would also require a majority in the 100-seat appointed senate, where Musharraf retains many PMLQ seats.

At the provincial level, the election showed Pakistan's public fragmented along ethnic and linguistic lines. The Sindh Provincial Assembly will be dominated by the Pakistan People's Party. Sindh's largest city, Karachi, with its Urdu-speaking majority, will likely be dominated by the MQM (Muttahidah Qawmi Movement), a secular mass party representing Urdu-speakers that had been cooperating with Musharraf.

Punjab, Pakistan's most populous province (some 60% of the whole), went heavily for the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PMLN. Its leader, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, is a steel magnate from the echt Punjabi city of Lahore.

The North-West Frontier Province, with its predominately Pushtun population, was captured by the Awami National Party, a secular, Pushtun-nationalist bloc, with the PPP likely a coalition partner there.

The results at the level of the federal parliament are a stunning defeat for Musharraf and track well with recent opinion polling in Pakistan, which showed only a 15% favorability rating for Musharraf and in which 70% of respondents said he should step down. Musharraf destroyed his popularity by dismissing the chief justice of the supreme court last spring and then by frontally invading a militant mosque in Islamabad last summer. He also appears to have been widely blamed for the conditions that allowed Benazir Bhutto (leader of the PPP) to be assassinated Dec. 27 and for the subsequent days of violence.

Another big loser in the election was the religious Right. The violence of the Red Mosque cultists and the bombings by Muslim militants after it was invaded really turned off Pakistanis from all accounts. This fall from favor is summarized by Dawn:

'According to the poll results, only 24 per cent of Pakistanis approved of Osama when the survey was conducted last month [January 2008], compared with 46 per cent during a similar survey in August [2007].

Backing for Al Qaeda fell to 18 per cent from 33 per cent.

Support for the Taliban dropped by half to 19 per cent from 38 per cent, the results said."

(Note that those Pakistanis who say they admire Bin Laden or al-Qaeda typically deny that they were responsible for the 9/11 attacks, so it isn't that they are necessarily militants or pro-terrorism; they are just duped by the religious Right into thinking that al-Qaeda is innocent. In any case, the scales seem to be falling from their eyes big time).

The six-party religious coalition, the Islamic Action Council (Muttahidah Majlis-i `Amal), which had ruled the strategically important Northwest Frontier Province, fell apart late last fall. Among its major components, the Jama'at-i Islami, decided to boycott the elections. Another major element, the Jami'at `Ulama-yi Islam (Fazlur Rahman) won only 12 seats in the provincial assembly of the NWFP yesterday. And so the religious coalition has become a small minority in the NWFP, which it ruled with an iron hand for over 5 years, and where it attempted various ruses to sidestep federal law and declare sharia or Islamic canon law in that province. Obviously, chasing away Peshawar's great singers and coddling extremists has not played well with the NWFP public, which is majority Pushtun (or as they say in Pakistan, Pathan).

The Awami National Party, a secular Pushtun nationalist party, swept to power with 29 seats. The secular, left of center Pakistan People's Party won 14 seats, more than the Muslim fundamentalists. Many independents won, 20 in all, and so they will be an important swing vote.

The turn of the Pathans (Pushtuns) of Pakistan to religious fundamentalist parties in 2002 is thus shown to have been a fluke. I think it had two causes. First, Gen. Musharraf interfered with the PPP and PMLN parties' election campaigns, weakening them. Second, the US had overthrown the Taliban, who were Pushtuns, and a lot of Pushtuns on the Pakistani side of the border interpreted the Afghanistan War as a superpower assault on a Pushtun government on behalf of Tajiks, Hazara Shiites and Uzbeks (the "northern alliance.")

But the fluke is over.

Major figures in the NWFP government of the MMA had denied that al-Qaeda exists. I think it may now be easier to catch the bad guys, though it is also true that the fight against the Pakistani Taliban and their international jihadi allies has been primarily pursued by the federal government, so the ambivalence of NWFP civilian officials may not have much impeded the fight.

Bottom line, the Pakistani public has demonstrated a dislike of extremism, including religious extremism, awarding a plurality of seats in the national legislature to secular parties and the rest to right-of-center parties, but roundly rejecting the fundamentalists.

Even though the PPP and PMLN likely won't have the votes to impeach Musharraf, he is in for a bumpy ride and it would be much better for everyone if he would recognize the writing on the wall and step down.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Over 80 Dead in Afghan Blast

A massive suicide bomb ripped through crowd in Qandahar on Sunday, killing over 80 and wounding a similar number. The Afghan newspaper Rah-i Sulh took a dim view of the public's activities at that site, which included dog racing. It observed that people who went to get a thrill from seeing dogs mangled unexpectedly saw a true and all too human tragedy.

People often say that Iraq was a diversion and that the US should have done the job in Afghanistan better and quickly. As time goes on, you have to begin to question whether Pushtuns in the country's south are ever going to put up with a foreign military occupation of their territory.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sadrist/ Badr Truce Breaks Down; Parliament Rejects Smaller Cabinet

It is awfully suspicious that as soon as a firm date was set for new provincial elections in Iraq (October 1), the truce broke down between the paramilitary of Muqtada al-Sadr and that of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. This according to Nassar al-Rubaie, the leader of the Sadrist bloc in parliament. The Sadrists say that the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), led by al-Hakim, was supposed to form joint councils in the provinces to resolve disputes, but never did. A lot of the fighting in the south, as at Karbala last fall or at Diwaniyah is actually between Mahdi Army militiamen and Iraqi police recruited from the Badr Corps paramilitary of ISCI.

There is a good chance of the Sadrists taking much of the south in the provincial elections if they are fair, and Muqtada may not want to be bound by agreements with a party that he will seek to toss out of office. ISCI now has Diyala, Baghdad, Hilla, Qadisiyah (Diwaniyah), Najaf, Karbala, Dhi Qar, and Muthanna. Maysan with its capital at Amara is controlled by the Sadrists. The southern oil province of Basra is controlled by the Islamic Virtue Party, an offshoot of the Sadr Movement that rejects Muqtada in favor of Ayatollah Muhammad Ya`qubi.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Hadi al-Amiri, the leader of the Badr Corps, affirms that the truce with the Mahdi Army still stands from his point of view. He told al-Zaman, "Those who have the right to announce a collapse of the agreement are al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr, in their capacities as the signers of it." He said that the agreement was signed by two leaders, not by two parties and that therefore al-Rubaie (as a parliamentarian) has no say in it. He concluded, "The problem of the Sadrists is with the law, not with the Supreme Council." He said that the Sadrists are protesting arrests made of Mahdi Army commanders in Karbala and Diwaniyah, but that these were ordered by the Prime Minister, Nuri al-Maliki, for the purpose of restoring security and establishing a rule of law for all. Both the provinces of Karbala and Diwaniyah are ruled by the Supreme Council, so al-Amiri seems to be eager to exonerate them of charges they have moved against the Sadrists. Instead, he said the arrests were ordered by al-Maliki, the head of the Islamic Call (al-Da`wa) Party.

For his part, al-Rubaie said that he was just stating the obvious, which was that the Badr-Sadr agreement was simply not active. Al-Amiri complained that al-Rubaie has made such statements before, only to have to back off them fairly quickly.

Meanwhile, al-Zaman reports in Arabic that a plan by Nuri al-Maliki to give some key ministries to technocrats and to cut his cabinet down to 22 ministers has foundered. Parties who actually won elections and sit in parliament don't want to give up control of important ministries to unelected technocrats.

Leila Fadel of McClatchy reports that the Kurdistan Regional Authority is placing restrictions on where Arab Iraqis can live in the Kurdish-dominated north.

See recent postings at our collective blog on Global Affairs. One of them is by Gershon Shafir and it looks at the Gaza issue. The other is by Farideh Farhi and deals with the uncertainties of Iran's upcoming elections, and the crackdown on candidates by the hardliners.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, a new letter by Gen. Berthier on the siege of Acre.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bombings in Baghdad, Mosul Kill 6; Hilla Awakening Council Joins Strike

Two bombings shook Iraq Sunday morning. In the Misbah commercial center in the upscale Shiite Karrada district, a female suicide bomber detonated a belt bomb, killing 3 persons and wounding 10.

Meanwhile, in Mosul a car bomb killed 3. Mosul is the site of a major push against foreign fighters styled 'al-Qaeda' (really mainly Salafi Jihadis).

About 100 members of the Awakening Council of Hilla Province have gone on strike to protest the killing of three of them by the US military at Jurf al-Sakhr last Sunday, in what the Pentagon says was an accident. They claim they have lost 19 men to supposedly friendly fire in recent weeks and say they refuse to work under these conditions. On Sunday the US military admitted that it had mistakenly fired on its allies, but said they had fired at a US helicopter by accident first. (Does anyone but the US have helicopters in Iraq? How could that have been an accident? Or do the Shiite troops sometimes fly helicopters and was the fire intended for al-Maliki's men?)

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the authorities and people in Diwaniya are afraid that on the Arba'in (the 40th day commemoration of the martyrdom of Imam Husayn's martyrdom), the cult-like Mahdist movement will resort to violence, just as its members did on the commemoration of the martyrdom itself in January. On that day, there was violence in Basra and Nasiriya. Police chief Safa' Sahib `Akmush said he had put 8,000 police in the streets to protect pilgrim heading off to the Shiite holy city of Karbala. Police have intelligence that the Mahdists may attempt to take the small Shiite city southeast of Baghdad. He closed off the center of the city to automobile traffic. Locals stockpiled food in expectation of clashes with the Mahdists, who believe the last days are at hand.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that officials in Baqubah are warning that as families are returning to the city, they could be forced right back out again, owing to sectarian tensions. Meanwhile, the "Popular committees" called again for the (Shiite) police chief to be forced out and brought up on charges of kidnapping (Sunni) women. They said it was a red line, from which they cannot back off. (Many members of these committees are also militiamen of the Awakening Councils, and they are also on strike to protest the police chief continuing in office). An unnamed security official said that armed men passed around pamphlets on Friday in the city warning that Shiite families earlier displaced, and who had just returned to the Jurf Milh and Awqaf districts of the city were at risk of being, should leave again within 48 hours. Two brothers from those families were killed near the former secret police HQ in the Tahrir distict. One family had their house blown up above their heads, and the police found 3 dead bodies in the trash dump on Sunday morning.

The protesters (of whom several thousand came out for a rally last Monday) say that they will not rest until they bring down the police chief.

McClatchy reports political violence for Saturday:

' Baghdad

- Police found two bodies throughout Baghdad, one in Waziriyah and one in Jisr Diyala in northeast Baghdad.

Diyala

- Around 11 a.m. A gunman killed an Iraqi army soldier in Al Mafraq area west Baquba.

- A booby trapped house exploded as the owner of the house and his son entered their house in Al Salam town north of Baquba. The two men were killed.

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi police vehicle near the Abu Saida intersection (about 20 kilometers east of Baquba) killing two police officers.

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army convoy near Imam Wais area (about 50 kilometers east of Baquba) killing one soldier and injuring another.

Kirkuk

- A parked car bomb exploded in Kirkuk injuring two police men today. The car exploded as police approached the parked car after receiving reports of a car bomb in the area.

- A roadside bomb targeted police vehicle in downtown Kirkuk injuring two police officers.

Al Anbar

- Police found five dead bodies on the outskirts of Ramadi city.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

4 Killed 17 Wounded in Tal Afar Mosque Bombing; Crisis of Water, Sewage in Baghdad;

AP reports that two suicide bombers attacked a Shiite mosque congregation in the northern Turkmen city of Tal Afar on Friday. The first was stopped and his belt bomb only killed him. But the second managed to detonate his belt in a crowd, killing four persons and wounding over 20. The scene of the attack was the Jawad al-Sadiq Mosque in the cinema district downtown. There are about 800,000 Turkmen in northern Iraq, split about evenly between Sunnis and Shiites. They speak a language similar to that of Turkey and often have close family relations across the border.

Tal Afar is a major Iraqi Turkmen urban center, with a population of some 170,000 inside city lines. Shiite Turkmen make up about 20% of Tal Afar's population as far as I can tell, with Sunni Turkmen the majority and a minority of Sunni Arabs, as well. [A US observer at Tal Afar wrote to say that the 2005 US/ Iraqi assault on the city displaced the Sunni Turkmen from it to surrounding villages and that Tal Afar is now majority Shiit. I.e. the same outcome on a smaller scale as in Baghdad! No wonder the Sunni Turkmen are so angry. - 2/22/08] The Turkmen Shiites have become much more powerful, because of their alliance with the Americans, provoking resentments from the Sunni Turkman, many of whom had been strong Baathists. Tal Afar is not far from the Syrian border and so an easy place to infiltrate by foreign fighters. The US military has built a wall around the city and has tried to control militants' access, and September 1-18 of 2005 assaulted Sunni militants there frontally, with Kurdish Peshmerga and Shiite allies. Last year this time, in late March 2007, a massive bomb in a Shiite market of Tal Afar killed 152 and wounded twice that many, provoking Shiite police in the city to kill some 70 Sunnis in revenge.

AP also reports on a US airstrike on "al-Qaeda" which local Iraqi authorities maintain actually killed some women and members of a Sunni Awakening Council that is pro-US.

Reuters reports that "BALAD RUZ - Gunmen in police uniforms manning a fake checkpoint kidnapped four people from one family on Friday, including two women, near the town of Balad Ruz, about 70 km (45 miles) northeast of Baghdad, police said."

Radio Sawa reports in Arabic that a firefight broke out on Thursday evening in the southern port city of Basra between the Mahdi Army and British troops. The fighting occurred near the al-Qiblah District in the southwestern part of the city. In response, Iraqi government security forces fanned through the city.

A Multinational Forces spokesman said that British forces undertook a air operation Thursday evening along the strategic line that connects Basra airport with Kuwait near al-Qiblah District. The fighting did not result in any British casualties, but badly damaged a tank. I was unable to find any reports of all this in Western wire services. I did find some pundit claiming that things were "much improved" in Basra. A British parliamentary commission found the opposite last fall.

Patrick Cockburn explains that among the main outcomes of the US troop escalation ("surge") was the Shiite victory in the 2007 battle for Baghdad, which has left hundreds of thousands of Sunni Arabs homeless and often in exile in Syria. He is also scathing on how the Awakening Councils are full of ex-al-Qaeda fighters who still despise the Shiite government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, which returns the sentiment in spades. He points out that the era of good feeling in Washington DC and New York about Iraq is part of a cycle of unfounded optimism that has much more to do with US politics than the squalid situation on the ground in Iraq.

Contrary to the glowing depictions of Iraq in the US press, Baghdad is engulfed in a lake of sewage so big it can be seen on Google Earth, many neighborhoods lack water, and electricity supply is insufficient and spotty. Although the Iraqi government crows about building clinics, the fact is that most nurses and physicians have fled, and medicines are in short supply. Last I knew, water purification was being impeded by US blockades on chlorine trucks coming in from Jordan. Some 70% of Iraqis do not have access to clean water, and there have been 100 recent cases of cholera in the capital, especially in the slum of Sadr City.

In nearby Baquba to the northeast, most children cannot go to school because of the poor security and some of those who can faint from hunger. The lack of services, poor security and perceived US favoritism to Shiite have stirred anger and resentment in Baqubah against the US.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Arato: "A Victory of the Better America?" Guest Editorial

The below is a guest editorial that will appear the coming week in Elet es Irodalom, a Hungarian weekly. (Hungarian journalists should please consider it embargoed until it appears there.)

Andrew Arato, Dorothy Hart Hirshon Professor of Political and Social Theory, The New School for Social Research, New York

Frankfurt

February 13, 2008


Is it possible? At least we have found a likely leader. The Battle of the Potomac is over. Despite the name that resembles the bloody exchanges of the Civil War, the mini civil war of the U.S. Democrats will hopefully not last very long. I am watching Obama’s victory speech from Madison, Wisconsin, a famous left wing university town. It is his best yet, combining the thoroughness of Harvard Law School and the emotional fervor of the Black Protestant church. Because McCain wants to stay in Iraq a hundred years, we should not give him four years…..The post-imperial candidate laid down his markers. The students (and myself even more) loved what we heard, expressed so clearly and so eloquently. Is it possible for an imperial Republic, after the failure of Athens and Rome, , for the second time in history after the lone British case, to willingly divest itself of a significant part of its imperial possessions that have become so dangerous for what makes the republican core still great? Yes we can is the Obama slogan, even if coined not exactly for the project that I have in mind. His personality and foreign policy ideas fortunately embody it. He was always against the Iraq war. He wants comprehensive negotiations with all regional powers of the Middle East. He wants to withdraw from Iraq relatively rapidly. But, and it is a big but, despite a series of successful battles, he has not yet won. Not yet against Clinton, and more importantly not yet against the other America, against McCain.

If Clinton loses it is not because she is a woman. In the Democratic Party that fact is rather a plus, ideologically and also because there are more women voters and more woman Democrats. It is because she is a woman, that she is still a serious contender in the race. She is losing instead, aside from Obama’s own strengths, because of her unforgivable two votes on the Iraq War in 2002 that already cost John Kerry (now an Obama supporter) the presidency. Making things worse, she still defends not only her positive vote on the Authorization of the Use of Force, but also the negative one on the Levin Amendment that would have required that the U.S. President go to the UN Security Council first, and, in case failure to get Chapter VII authorization under the Charter, to go back to Congress for explicit authorization to go to war. While in case of the Authorization itself, Clinton now says that knowing everything she knows today (i.e. that there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and that Bush would abuse the authorization) she would have voted no, she does not say why it was right to trust this particular President and his circle at all, given all the planning for war. But in the case of the Levin Amendment the issue is even more serious. The proposal was eminently sensible as well as deeply constitutional. It is Congress’ constitutional power to declare war. This power cannot be delegated, because it is given by the constituent power. The only possible exception is a Chapter VII war, where under a binding international treaty signed by the U.S. the Security Council is the source of the authorization. This is what happened in the Korean War; the first time the Congressional right to Declare was seriously bypassed. Recently Congressional declarations have been replaced by Authorizations that however do not leave it up to the president to decide whether to go to war or not, as did the Iraq authorization in question. The aim of the Levin Amendment was to replace a “blank check” authorization, clearly unconstitutional, by the choice: either authorization by the Security Council or a more specific, Congressional re-authorization. It is this choice that Hillary Clinton still repeatedly represents in speeches, quite wrongly, as surrendering the powers of the United States to the United Nations. In reality however, she like Bush, wishes to keep the presidential prerogative free of both international and constitutional restraints.

We have seen the consequence of such a liberation from both types of law in Iraq, in Guantanamo, and all places where extraordinary rendition, kidnappings, torture, and detentions without due process have been practiced by U.S. authorities. Hillary Clinton may be an opponent of all that, but she does not attack the problem at its roots even if she goes further than McCain in the one and only case of Iraq. The empire is not only Iraq, and presidential power in an imperial setting would remain a danger also after an Iraqi withdrawal, assuming she would carry it out. As the famous colonel in the film Battle of Algiers said to the assembled French journalists: if you want an Algerie Francaise, you must put up with all that. If you want to protect the American empire as is . . . if you are unwilling to negotiate with all our adversaries without pre-conditions that is of course the pre-condition of orderly withdrawal . . . then you must put up with the means necessary to protect it. Clinton’s positions on negotiations with Iran indicate that she has not yet learned much from the past, indeed from the war in Iraq itself. And McCain is one of the most aggressive American politicians with respect to both continuing the war in Iraq and risking a new one with Iran. Only Obama, not Clinton, nor McCain in spite of his loud verbal opposition to torture is ready to do what it would take to end the situation in which there is any kind of imperial rationale (however mistaken technically) for torture. Obama (tutored here by Zbigniew Brzezinski) is the only realist among the three candidates still standing, in spite of his soaring rhetoric.

All polls currently indicate that the great majority of the country is with Obama on questions of foreign policy, and has been for two or more years, though they may not yet correctly identify his views on all the issues. But given the threat of recession, the issue of external affairs retreated behind that of the economy. In general this would be an advantage to the Democrats. It is also to Hillary Clinton’s advantage, because of the superior track record of the Clinton administration, her own obvious competence, and better thought out position on very much needed health care reform – where she is an expert paradoxically enough because of her dramatic failure in 1993, that led to the so-called “Republican Revolution in 1994. The Obama idea of “change” has to do mostly with the large issue of identity and foreign policy posture in the world, while Clinton’s slogan experience refers to her managerial abilities in the domestic sphere where there is very little difference between the two equally liberal (in the American sense = social liberal) Democratic candidates. In spite of small, probably tactical differences, they both have dramatic health care reform as the centerpiece of their social program, and they would both pay for it the same way, by refusing to make the outrageous Bush tax cuts that produced huge deficits permanent for the wealthy. They are lucky, because unlike Kerry in 2004 they don’t have to promise to pass new legislation to finance health expenditures . . . all they have to do is the much easier thing, namely to oppose new legislation to make reduction of governmental resources permanent. This will still be called raising taxes by the Republicans; but the stress will be on rescinding tax cuts to the wealthy! In any case, the Democratic electorate is asked to decide whether the more experienced but more polarizing Clinton, or the more novice Obama who is willing to work with Republicans is likely to accomplish a similar domestic agenda. And we still do not know how they will decide this question.

So far, before the three Potomac Primaries, the young, the educated, men and most dramatically blacks were with Obama, older voters, the less well educated, women, and Hispanic-Americans were with Clinton. Obama could win the majority of whites in caucus states where the politically active vote in a kind of township meeting setting that suggests participatory democracy, and where the young and the educated have an advantage. Clinton won the whites in the primary states, where normal elections with secret ballots take place, the form also favoring the Tom Bradley effect (a former losing black Mayor candidate in Los Angeles): the voter tells the pollster that he or she votes for the black but does not do so under the veil of secrecy. This was probably the reason for the huge discrepancy between polls and results in New Hamphshire and California, lost by Obama. Now in Virginia and Maryland, two primary states, the white vote was evenly split and there was no Bradley effect! (There may be now a Halle Berry effect, still racist of course: “she is the one black that I would marry”). Admittedly there is also Hillary hatred, but this is measured by the polls; since we still allow substitute languages for misogyny but not for racism: as “she is so aggressive” or “she is such a know it all”. It seems however that her collapse in Virginia and Maryland where she is liked and where she used to be leading is due simply to the rise of Obama.

Obama will most likely take Wisconsin, powered by the young and the educated. Then the big three hurdles will be Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. If his current momentum is real he may take all three or two out of three. If he takes both Ohio and Texas on March 4, or one of them and later Pensylvania he has won, and the so-called super delegates will have to fall into line with Carter, Gore and Pelosi leading the pack. If Clinton takes all three she will win, narrowly perhaps depending on the size of her win in proportional elections, to the tremendous disappointment of Obama’s young army, and the super-delegates whose majority is now with her will also fall into line. She would do well in that case to offer the vice-presidency to Obama in a convincing manner, if she wants to win against McCain. If Obama wins only one of the three, and is narrowly ahead, the super-delegates may still want to decide for Clinton. There may even be attempts to illegitimately give Clinton the delegates from the Florida and Michigan primaries where Obama chose not to compete on the orders of the DNC. In either case, in August we will have riots in Denver, the site of the Democratic Convention, that will resemble the siege of Chicago in 1968, and with Clinton playing the role of Hubert Humphrey the Democrats will go on to lose the election. So if Obama has a narrow majority in the end, the party leaders better quickly shift to him and manage some deal. Their choice will be also motivated by electability (that does not = Hillary hatred, pace Stanley Fish!) as an issue, namely the legitmate concern regarding who does better against McCain in the polls. Today it clearly seems to be Obama, but how much of a Bradley effect is hiding in the numbers? Noone knows. Clinton however is more vulnerable on the question of Iraq, exactly like Kerry was, than is Obama with his far greater consistency on the issue.

The electoral results will in any case be all important. Conventionally two things are said: First, that the one with momentum wins and that is now Obama, and, second, the one who can break through his or her prior demographic constraints wins, and that is Obama too, though only marginally. Clinton cannot hope to get the young, or the blacks or the educated to vote against Obama. But in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas she may not have to. If she can continue to get huge majorities among white women, the less educated, and among Hispanic Americans that may be enough. It is Obama who needs to break through his previous demographics, and he has not yet done so enough. Whether the momentum will do it for him remains to be seen.

If he does make it, the Democrats, unlike last time, will have a great convention, one for all the ages. And then debates will be incredibly exciting. McCain already admitted he knows little about the economy and economics, but has read Alan Greenspan’s book. Now that two bubbles (finance and real estate) Greenspan helped to create have burst, that should not be enough. Flip-flopping on taxes (first I was against them as unfair and unwise, before I was for making them permanent) and staying in Iraq permanently will not go over well in the debates with a clever lawyer like Obama. Just one issue remains for McCain: that of commander in chief in wartime, if we are willing to forget that we should not be in any war at all. And here McCain with his military experience looks more like such a figure, however wrong his policies! Obama will undoubtedly show that staying in Iraq even 5 and not 10 or 100 years makes the United States weaker in Afghanistan, weaker against the terrorists, less able to deal with new crises, more and more unpopular in the world and especially the Islamic world. What he then must be ready for is two things. To give a convincing answer to the question of how to withdraw from Iraq in a way that is not catastrophic for Iraq itself, and to deal with crises situations, external or internal, real or manufactured that probably will arise during the campaign, and do so in a very effective and presidential manner. He should be able to do these two things, but the other side that should have certainly lost in 2004 already cannot be underestimated.

We are not there yet. But it is already another country. I did not think I would say it so soon. After years of shame, I am proud of our democracy again. To nominate a very liberal black or a liberal woman, to force even the other America to choose someone with a human face, though largely the wrong policies that are not yet sufficiently known, is a clear repudiation of the politics of 2001-2008. The driving force behind all this is American civil society, and mostly the self-organizing young, and the gods of history have given us a perfect candidate to carry their message and their hope. The activists must not be disappointed by the eventual victory of McCain, or even Clinton. But the future is actually in their own hands. It is they who need to take their country back!
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sadr City Bombing Kills 4, Wounds 30; Sadrists announce Mourning for Mughniyah

The Herald Sun reports via correspondents in Baghdad,

' A bomb planted in a minibus ripped through a market in Baghdad's teeming Sadr City neighbourhood on Thursdya night (AEDT), killing five people and wounding 30. The bomb exploded about midday local time when the market in the mainly-Shi'ite neighbourhood was bustling with people. '

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Nuri al-Maliki hopes to form a new cabinet within the next week. It will tend toward the technocratic and be smaller than its predecessor, with about 22 seats. Presumably the cabinet will represent the four-party coalition that actually runs Iraq, apparently without much reference to parliament. They are the (Shiite) Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the (Shiite) Da'wa (Islamic Call) Party, the Kurdistan Alliance, and the (Sunni) Iraqi Accord Front. The IAF withdrew from the government last summer but appears set to return. If it returns, al-Maliki will regain his majority in parliament, since it has 44 seats, while the two Shiite parties and the Kurds have about 112, for a total of 156. A majority would be 138.

The pledge to release thousands of detained Iraqis (a majority of them Sunni) passed on Wednesday met a key demand of the Iraqi Accord Front.

Al-Hayat also has more reaction to the passage on Wednesday of three benchmark laws, a budget, an amnesty for prisoners, and a law on the provinces. It reports that Salih Mutlak of the National Dialogue Front complained that the laws were pushed through after political deal-making among the parliamentary blocs. He called for parliament to be dissolved and for there to be a new law on elections.

The Iraqi National List led by Iyad Allawi also called for early new elections for parliament. Usamah al-Nujayfi of this list criticized the decision to grant Kurdistan 17% of Iraq's oil revenue. He also condemned the way the laws were passed (without an individual voice vote being recorded) as "unconstitutional."

A spokesman for the Sadr Movement of Muqtada al-Sadr, Nassar al-Rubay`i, said that the Sadrists refused to vote for the budget, because it had not included an amendment to raise salaries for teachers, with the Sadrists had demanded repeatedly.

[Someone is already running for election in 2009.]

Muqtada al-Sadr on Thursday condemned the assassination of Shiite guerrilla Imad Mughniyah and announced a 3-day mourning period for him.


AP on why there are no Awakening Councils in Mosul. In an ethnically mixed area, the US military judges that they would upset the balance of power and cause way more trouble than they are worth. Since only al-Anbar is tribally fairly uniform among Iraq's Sunni-majority provinces, though, that isn't a good sign for the generalizability of the model.

John Tirman defends the Lancet study, which found 600,000 excess deaths in Iraq through summer of 2006, for a massive rightwing smear campaign in which supposed quotes have been made up.

McClatchy reports on political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

A roadside bomb exploded in the junction near the Shaab Stadium, east Baghdad injuring 3 civilians at around 08:00 this morning.

A car bomb exploded in Mraidi market place, Sadr City, north east Baghdad at around 12:30 this afternoon. The explosion left 4 civilians dead and 33 injured. The vehicle carrying the explosives was a Kia mini-bus parked on the side of the road at the entrance to the market.

3 bodies were found in Baghdad by Iraqi Police today . . .

Salahuddin

Gunmen stormed a house in the town of Awja, 10 km to the south of Tikrit last night. They shot and killed Labib Ali al-Zaidan, his wife and 7 of his family members using silencers on their weapons.

Gunmen shot and killed Staff General and commander of a division in former Iraqi Army, Mejeed Mahmoud Hussein as he was driving his car near the industrial area, south Samarra at around 01:00 this afternoon. Hussein had been detained in Bucca prison by Coalition Forces for three years and was released 2 months ago.

Ninevah . . .

Chief of Ba'aj district Police Station, Colonel Hazim al-Juburi and 3 of his security detail were injured as a roadside bomb targeted his motorcade in Ba'aj, west Mosul before noon today.

Basra

A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi Army patrol, injuring 2 soldiers and destroying the Hummer vehicle they were driving.

Diyala

Gunmen attacked a checkpoint in Jalowlaa, 105 km to the east of Baquba. The commander of the checkpoint personnel called for re-enforcements, but their vehicle was targeted by an IED, 7 policemen were injured. . .

Gunmen assassinated Sheikh Abu Ali al-Buhruzawi, head of Iraq Hamas Brigades near al-Rahma Hospital, central Baquba.

3 civilians were abducted by gunmen who had set up a false checkpoint in Beledruz 20 km to the north of Baquba this evening.

A roadside bomb exploded in Muqdadiyah this afternoon injuring 3 children who were in a parked car near by. '

And Reuters adds:

' KERBALA - Police arrested three men they said were followers of Ahmed al-Hassan al-Yamani, a leader with a large following in Basra, and seized weapons and explosives from them. . .

BASRA - Two Iraqi soldiers were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded near their patrol in the southern city of Basra, 550 km (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said . . .'

Jonathan Schwartz takes apart William Kristol on Iraq at Tomdispatch.com.

Barnett Rubin at our join Global Affairs blog on 1) fixing the elections in Pakistan and 2) US mistakes in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Provincial Elections Set; Amnesty Announced for Prisoners; Muqtada Said to be in Qom

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic on the passage by the Iraqi parliament of three important laws. These included the annual budget, a general amnesty that will free thousands of mostly Sunni Arab prisoners in the teeming Iraqi security prisons, and finally a "law on the provinces." The action came in the wake of threats by powerful politicians to dissolve parliament if it could not do a simple thing like pass a budget.

Al-Zaman (The Times of Baghdad) reports in Arabic that there was not actually a vote, but rather the laws were passed as a package by consensus. The consensus reflected a political deal among the major parties rather than a recorded vote of a majority of the MPs. Al-Zaman calls the method of the vote "unconstitutional." (They are protesting the lack of a recorded individual voice vote; it may be they also object to the bundling of the three separate laws together, which made MPs vote up and down, yes or no). Many MPs had interests in some of the laws but opposed a third, and therefore had to choose between betraying their interests or accepting legislation they really opposed. Al-Zaman quotes MP Salih Mutlak (a secular, ex-Baathist Sunni who is in the opposition) and MPs of the Sadr Movement as expressing fierce opposition to the law regarding amnesty for prisoners because it allowed for a delay in their release of six months.

This undemocratic and unconstitutional way of passing through legislation that the Americans insist be approved, in the teeth of opposition from a majority of MPs, was ironically employed in passing the constitution itself. Some version of it was passed without an individual voice vote in late August of 2005 (after the deadline set by the Transitional Administrative Law) and then the US embassy went on tinkering with the text right up until the October 15 referendum! It is ironic that when the Americans make their influence felt most strongly in the Iraqi government, that government acts least democratically.

The budget that the parliament sort of passed, on its sixth try, awarded the Kurdistan Regional Government 17% of the $40 billion central government budget, with the proviso that this proportion be revisited in 2009 after a census, to be completed by the end of December, 2008. (Many Arab delegates do not believe the Kurds constitute so large a proportion of the total population of Iraq).

The law of the provinces bestows special prerogatives on them that al-Hayat does not specify. McClatchy says it also sets Oct. 1 as the date for provincial elections.

The setting of a date for provincial elections is extremely important. I have argued that elections in the Sunni Arab-dominated provinces are a necessity for calming Iraq. Diyala, for instance, is 60% Sunni Arab but is ruled by the pro-Iranian Shiite party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. The Sunni Arabs largely boycotted the provincial elections of January, 2005 (the turnout in al-Anbar was 2%). Thus, virtually none of the governments in the center-north and west of the country has much real legitimacy. It will be easier for the US to turn over security duties to elected provincial authorities who have the backing of significant numbers of Sunni Arabs, and so the elections could pave the way to a US drawdown in those provinces.

One reason that the provincial elections have been delayed is that there are fears in Baghdad that the Sadr Movement of Muqtada al-Sadr will sweep to power in the Shiite south. It from all accounts has gained in popularity as the current dominant provincial party there, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, has become much less popular. (ISCI has been trying to run many of the southern Shiite provinces, but has not been able to provide security and services at the level desired by local people). Presumably one reason for bundling the law of the provinces with the amnesty law was to make Sadrist MPs vote for the package. They did not want to grant amnesty to Sunni Arab prisoners, but only by supporting this step could they get a date certain for provincial elections, which they think they will largely win.

Since the Sadrists want a quick US withdrawal, for them to sweep to power in many of the provinces (possibly including in Baghad province), could strengthen this demand.

One of my Shiite Iraq friends, from Najaf, thinks that there are no circumstances under which ISCI would turn the southern provinces over to the Sadrists, and that the vote will therefore be fixed.

Back to the parliamentary actions. The amnesty law provides for prisoners to be released who have not committed serious crimes (e.g. genocide & murder). It is a major victory for the Sunni Arab coaltion, the Iraqi Accord Front, which made its passage a condition for their return to the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. There are some 60,000 prisoners in Iraqi and US custody, many of them suspected of helping Sunni guerrillas, and many of whom have not yet been charged with any crime even though they have been held for many months.

Al-Hayat also reports that it has learned that Muqtada al-Sadr is studying in Qom with Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri, in order to become an independent religious jurisprudent in his own right. He is expected to be able to announce that status later this year. Theoretically, the laity could then begin following his rulings on the practice of Shiism. Last December, al-Hayat reported that Muqtada was studying in Najaf with Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Ishaq Fayyad, who is originally from Afghanistan.

And the newspaper says that US talks with Iran on issues in Iraq will begin in the Green Zone in Baghdad on Thursday.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Wednesday:

' Baghdad

A civilian was injured when a mortar shell hit Shaab police station in Shaab neighborhood north Baghdad around 8:00 am.

Two IED exploded targeting American army convoys in Ur neighborhood and Qanat Street east Baghdad between 1:00 and 1:15 pm. The US army confirmed the news saying that the two explosions caused minor injuries for two soldiers.

Gunmen broke in al Somood primary school in Zafariyah town southeast Baghdad around 2:00 pm. The beat the wife of the guard and hung her three old years son.

Police found three bodies in Baghdad today. The three bodies were found in Rusafa, the eastern side of Baghdad in the following neighborhood (1 body in Fadhil neighborhood and 2 bodied in Waziriyah neighborhood.)

Diyala

Gunmen opened fire targeting building workers while the workers were in their way to work from Sadiyah town to Himreen town northeast of Baquba city today morning. Five workers were killed and two others were wounded.

Police found a head of a civilian in Khalis town north of Baquba.

Kirkuk

Local police of Kirkuk found a body of a civilian in Sargaran town northwest of Kirkuk city yesterday night. Police said that the body was shot in the chest. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Speaker Threatens to Dissolve Parliament; 13 Bodies found at Muqdadiya; 3 Students Killed near Balad Ruz

The Daily Star summarizes reports coming out of Iraq that the Speaker of the House is threatening to dissolve parliament. Iraq's legislature has been deadlocked for months over the budget and also setting a date for badly needed provincial elections. It is likely a hollow threat, but the Iraqi constitution does state, "The Council of Representatives may be dissolved by a one-third vote of the Council or on requests of both the Prime Minister and the President." Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani says he has those votes.

The passage of the budget has been held up by demands of the Kurds that the Kurdistan Regional Authority receive 17% of national income, which many Arab MPs think is excessive. The proportion is based on Kurdish estimates of their proportion of the Iraqi population, estimates that are disputed. Some say they are willing to compromise on 14.5 % for the Kurds. Arab delegates also resent Kurdish demands that they pay for the Peshmerga security forces of the Kurdistan Regional Authority, which rejects federal troops ever setting foot on its soil.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the latest crisis was provoked on Tuesday when the Sadrists, the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) MPs, and independents walked out of the budget negotiations late in the day. A compromise had been reached on the Kurds, awarding them 17% this year but providing for a proper nation-wide census in 2008 (fat chance). A resolution had also been hammered out on the issue of releasing some of the some 60,000 Iraqis in prison, whether in Iraqi or American custody. The resolution asked that the American captives be moved to Iraqi jurisdiction.

Sam Dagher of CSM casts a critical eye over the Awakening Councils, the Sunni tribal levies paid by the US to fight the Salafi Jihadis. He finds that past successes are running up against limitations, including the strike in Diyala and a worrisome tendency toward internal rivalries, not to mention that many have been assassinated by the Salafi Jihadis.

McClatchy asks if the lull in violence in Iraq last November was a fluke, and whether it is now ending . . .


McClatchy reports political violence on Tuesday.

' Baghdad

- Around 7:30 a.m., a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol at the Mission Complex at Karrada neighborhood (east Baghdad) .One policeman was injured.

- Around 8:30 a.m., a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol at the Canal Street near New Baghdad neighborhood (east Baghdad). No casualties reported.

- Around 8:45 a.m., a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol near the marketing of oil products headquarter at Baladiyat neighborhood (east Baghdad). No casualties reported.

- Around noon, four mortars hit Doura neighborhood at Kafa’at district .Two people were killed and 8 injured.

- Police found the Journalist Husham Mijoud , who was kidnapped two days ago , dead at Bab Al-Sheikh ( north east Baghdad) in Risafa bank.

- Police found 3 unidentified dead bodies in Baghdad: Two were found in Risafa bank; one was found in Binouk neighborhood and one was found in Zayuna .While the third one was found in Yarmouk neighborhood in Karkh bank.

- The criminal directorate arrested Mr.Mohammad Al-Safi and five Sadrists members at Shoala neighborhood ( north west Baghdad) who are accused of kidnapping a girl and raped her, police said.

Diyala

- In the early morning, the American forces found a mass grave of 13 remains of dead people (three of them were without heads) at one of the orchards in Blour village which is a part of Muqdadiya(about 55 km north east of Baquba, police said. From his side Dr.Ahmed Foad , the director of Baquba morgue , said that those dead bodies had got torture and had been transferred to the morgue. The U.S. military said in an email that they were not involved and the reports “appeared to be false.”

- Around 9 a.m., a girl of nine years old was killed by a roadside bomb at Al-Abara area (10 km south of Baquba)

- Around noon, gunmen attacked a Kia mini bus which were carrying students passengers on the midway between Kinaan and Balad Ruz (south east Baquba). Three students (two girls and one boy) were killed and three injured (two boys and the driver).

Mosul

- In the afternoon, clashes took place between police and gunmen at Sheikh Hamad at the left bank of Shurqat (south of Mosul). One policeman was killed in addition to 7 gunmen.

Basra

- Around 9 a.m., gunmen opened fire on a police patrol in Mihjran area ( 5 km south of Basra ) .One policeman was killed and two injured.

- Around 10 a.m., gunmen killed a policeman while he was riding his motor bike at Ibn Al-Jawzi area ( 2 km south of Basra).'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Twin Massive Bombings Target Awakening Leaders; Thousands Protest Police Chief in Baquba; Pipeline Bombing Causes Outages

Sunni Arab guerrillas deployed two massive car bombs in Baghdad to attack leaders of the Al-Anbar Awakening Council who were meeting in the city, killing at least 22 persons and wounding 42. McClatchy says that at least one major al-Anbar Awakening leader was among the dead, and that major figure Ali al-Hatem was wounded. Also among those killed were 6 bodyguards for the leaders of the council, while 20 bodyguards were injured.

In Diyala Province to the northeast of Baghdad, some 3500 demonstrators massed in downtown Baquba, the provincial capital, to protest against the police chief, whose sacking they demanded. They say that he is involved in kidnappings and killings of Sunni women. Members of the Awakening Council were among the demonstrators. They are on strike, and on Sunday clashed with the police, allegedly killing 3 of them.

Aljazeera English has video:



Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that Baquba police are attempting to limit the influence of the Awakening Councils.

Al-Hayat also reports that that Iraqi parliament continues to be deadlocked on important issues such as passing the budget and arranging for provincial elections.

Sunni Arab guerrillas bombed a gas pipeline in northern Iraq, producing massive electricity outages that are likely to last at least a week.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

' Baghdad

- Around 8:30 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted a civilian car in Al Mashtal area, killing one civilian and injuring two others.

- Around 9 a.m. a roadside bomb exploded near Al Mansour fuel station injuring two people.

- Around 11:55 a car bomb exploded near tribal sheikh Ali Hatem's office in Arasat area. About noon another car bomb targeted police patrols heading to the first car bomb site in Al Hurriya intersection exploded, 11 people were killed and 30 others were injured and Hatem was injured also in the bombing.

- Around 6 p.m. a parked car bomb near a police station in Dora neighborhood, injured three civilians and two police officers.

- Police found three bodies throughout Baghdad, one in Fidhiliyah, 1 in Obeidi and one in Tobchi.

Diyala

- Gunmen kidnapped Dr. Ahmad Al Jubouri in Muqdadiyah.

- Gunmen attacked an Iraqi army patrol in Muqdadiyah, three gunmen were killed.

Nineveh

- Mortar shells slammed into Al Zinjeli area in Mosul, injuring two residents.

- Gunmen attacked an Iraqi army convoy in Al Nahrawan area in Mosul, three gunmen were killed in the attack and one soldier was injured.

- A roadside bomb targeted a U.S. military convoy in Al Wahda neighborhood, injuring a woman and a child were near the bomb site.

- Gunmen attacked and injured one man near Mosul.

Babil

- A bomb placed in a neighborhood representative (Mukhtar) office in Hilla exploded yesterday, injuring four people.

Basra

- Gunmen kidnapped a foreign journalist and his translator Sunday night. An Iraqi police captain identified the kidnapped to be a journalist who works for CBS news and said the gunmen using two civilian cars kidnapped the two men near Qasr Al Sultan hotel in Basra. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

70 Killed or found Dead on Sunday; Big Bombing Near Balad: Baquba Clashes

So first on Sunday, Sunni Arab guerrillas tried to overwhelm Iraqi security forces, Awakening Council members and US troops at two villages near Sinjar not far from the Syrian border. The pro-US forces fought them off, but 22 died in the encounter, some on each side. McClatchy describes the events thusly:

' A source in the Iraqi army said that gunmen from Qaida killed a family(parents and their four children) in Sinjar town west of Mosul city today morning. After the incident, joint troops (Sahwa and USA troops supported by the tribes) raided the strongholds of the insurgents and clashes with them. Ten insurgents were killed and three others were arrested. Six Sahwa members were killed two women were injured during the clashes. '

Then around 4:30 pm Baghdad time, in the village of Mazari'ah in Tikrit district, not far from the Shiite city of Balad, a truck bomber detonated his payload at a checkpoint manned by Sunni awakening council members near a market, killing 34 and wounding 37 and damaging many shops. Actual counts of killed and wounded were hindered because they were mostly Sunnis and the families were afraid to take them into Balad, which is Shiite-dominated.

In the west of Mosul, a suicide bomber driving a fuel tanker killed 4 Iraqi soldiers and wounded 7.

Then a suicide bomber hit a police checkpoint in Fallujah, killing 3 and wounding 7. Sunni fundamentalist guerrillas have been fighting with notables of the Dulaim tribe because the latter have thrown in with the Americans.

Ten bodies were found in and around Baghdad.

Although the Bush administration spokesmen keep saying that the guerrillas are on their last legs, the level of violence on Sunday does not accord with such a view. And, the awakening councils, where former insurgents are paid by the US to switch sides and patrol for the US military, have not worked out very well outside al-Anbar and are at the moment on strike in much of Diyala province.

In fact, Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that active fighting is going on between Awakening Council fighters and local police in Baquba. The dispute concerns two women kidnapped from near the town of Muqdadiya. The Awakening Councils closed their offices and are on strike in any case. The municipal authorities are calling for a quick end to the infighting and an end to the strike, since they say that Salafi Jihadis may take advantage of the situation to reestablish themselves in Baquba, the capital of Diyala Province east of Baghdad.

(The police in Baquba are mostly Shiites from the Badr Corps, whereas the Awakening Councils are mostly Sunni Arab, so that helps explain the clashes. But also the kidnapping of the women sounds like tribal hostage-taking. One of the things the Americans who are depending so heavily on tribal levies now are going to find out is that tribes typically enjoy feuding much more than they do peacekeeping, however much they are paid for the latter.)

Richard Luscombe of the Scotsman accuses US troops in Iraq of using "shady tactics" such as carrying spare machine guns to plant o the bodies of any Iraqis they wrongly killed. They are also accused of using the weapons as bait and of killing with sniper fire anyone who attempted to pick them up. The remarks surround an article on the conviction of Sergeant Evan Vela of unpremeditated murder at his court-martial. Vela was found guilty of wrongly killing Nesir Khudair al-Janabi and then of attempting to cover it up. Vela maintained that he was sleep deprived and following orders. His superior officer who gave the order to open fire as acquitted.

Michael Schwartz at Tomdispatch essays a first connected history of the Iraqi refugee crisis, which he terms the worst such crisis in the world. Actually, I would say that the Palestinian refugee crisis is still worse, since most Palestinians except those in Israel and Jordan are still stateless, and their total number is roughly 10.5 million (i.e. about 7 million are stateless, and even some of those with Jordanian citizenship still live in refugee camps. I would argue that long-term statelessness is akin to a condition of slavery insofar as many basic rights, including work permits, expectations of permanent residence in a country, etc., come only with citizenship). All of this is to take nothing away from the seriousness and tragedy of the Iraqi refugee crisis.

Aljazeera English does a report on the displaced Shiites living in grinding poverty the slums of Sadr City or East Baghdad, a largely Shiite enclave where the Sadr Movement is powerful:




The Bush administration and the Pentagon deep-sixed an unclassified RAND study of failures in the planning for the Iraq War. I'll bet the shredders are working overtime in preparation for the arrival of the Dems in power early next year . . .

US civilian contractor deaths were up 17% in 2007, which is, according to experts, an "incredible" statistic. Makes a person suspicious that the fall in US military deaths was a little artificial and that contractors were sometimes sent in, instead, and that their deaths do not garner the same attention as those of US troops.

McClatchy reports other political violence for Sunday:

' Baghdad

Gunmen opened fire targeting Lieutenant General Mohammed Basim Abdul Redha and Colonel Farqad Salman Alwan, both work in the directorate in the general inspector of the defense ministry. The incident took place at 9:00 am in al Yarmook neighborhood west Baghdad.

A civilian was killed and two others were injured when gunmen opened fire randomly targeting a bus in al Nosoor square west Baghdad around 3:00 pm.

A joint force of the Iraqi army and the US army found a grave yard includes five bodies of men in Boob al Sham area north of Baghdad . . .

Salahuddin . . .

Gunmen killed two civilians near Tikrit- Baghdad Street north of Baghdad today afternoon.

Diyala

Two policemen were killed and 17 people (10 policemen and 7 civilians) were injured when ten mortar shells hit Baladrooz police station in Baladrooz town east of Baquba city today morning.

Kirkuk

The head of Abbasi Sahwa Majeed Ahmed Khalaf was injured with two of his followers when a suicide bomber detonated his car near their car on Abbasi- Hawija Street southwest Kirkuk city around 9:30 am. Police said that the suicide bomber was driving a pick up car carrying a cow in the back of the car and got close to Khalaf’s car then detonated his car. . .

Nineveh . . .

Four civilians were injured in a suicide car bomb that targeted a check point of the Iraqi army in al Hadba’a neighborhood downtown Mosul city north of Baghdad today afternoon.

Four Iraqi soldiers were killed and seven civilians were killed in suicide car bomb that targeted a check point of the Iraq army in al Sahaji area west of Mosul city today afternoon.

A fuel station owner was killed and three other civilians were injured when a gunman opened fire in Haj Ali village in Makhmoor town southeast of Mosul city '

Reuters adds:

' BAGHDAD - Ten bodies were found in different areas of Baghdad on Sunday, police said. Five of them were found in a grave in outskirts of northern Baghdad. . .

NEAR KIRKUK - A suicide car bomb blast aimed at a convoy of U.S.-backed neighbourhood policemen wounded three members including the unit's leader, southwest of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR HILLA - U.S. troops and Iraqi security forces arrested two suspected Shi'ite militia just north of Hilla, 100 km (62 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

KUT - Police arrested a senior al Qaeda member in Kut, 170 km (105 mile) southeast of Baghdad, a spokesman for the Interior Ministry said.

NINEVEH PROVINCE - Five people, including a woman, were killed in clashes when gunmen attacked villages manned by neighbourhood policemen in the northern province of Nineveh, police said. '

Paul George says of the Iraq War, "It's the oil, habibi, the oil," quoting IC which in turn paraphrased Muqtada al-Sadr's similar comment about the fighting in Kirkuk.

I thought Philip Cunningham's comments at our collective Global Affairs blog on how Barack Obama is viewed in Southeast Asia just fascinating, and remarked that because of his stint in a (secular) Indonesian school, he is perceived as culturally "a bit Asian."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bombing Kills 27 in Pakistan; Bin Laden in FATA?

A week from Monday, Pakistanis will go to the polls to elect their federal parliament, in one of the more consequential elections of the past two decades. The campaign season started out Saturday with an unfortunate bombing at a rally in Charsadda near Peshawar that killed 27 and wounded 40. The Awami National Party, a secular, left of center faction of the Pushtun ethnic group, had staged the rally. The small party, which opposes President Musharraf, did not do well enough in the 2002 elections to gain a seat.

Meanwhile, in the southern city of Thatta, Benazir Bhutto's widower Asif Zardari addressed a crowd said to be 100,000 strong (i.e. truly enormous), pledging state's rights and a new compact between the federal government and the provinces if the Pakistan People's Party came to power. In Sindh Province, which speaks a distinctive language and is extremely poverty-stricken, the PPP functions as a regional party standing for Sindhi rights. Such large rallies have been unusual this campaign season, given the threat of violence from suicide bombers representing Muslim radicals or possibly rogue elements in the government itself (as Zardari heavily implied).

The election pits forces favorable to President Pervez Musharraf, who became a civilian last fall, against those who consider him still to be a military dictator. He is supported by the Pakistan Muslim League (Qa'id-i A`zam) or PMLQ. He is opposed by the Pakistan People's Party of slain leader Benazir Bhutto and by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PMLN, loyal to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif (who is banned from standing for a seat himself because of corruption charges).

If the PPP wins, or can form a coalition with another opposition party such as the PMLN, this development could severely weaken Pervez Musharraf or even force him from office.

Musharraf has dismissed calls for him to step down from retired military officers, and is said to be coercing the press into prohibiting criticism of him in the lead-up to the elections.

Meanwhile, in Islamabad "About 1,500 lawyers tried to march Saturday to Chaudhry's barricaded home to protest his continued detention. When lawyers tried to breach the barbed-wire barricade, hundreds of riot police responded with tear gas, water cannon and a baton charge. Several lawyers were roughed up, but there were no reports of serious injury. Earlier Saturday, Pakistan's Bar Council announced the lawyers would boycott courts nationwide until the elections to pressure the government to restore Chaudhry and other senior judges."

McClatchy says that Pakistan is now the "central front" in the American War on Terror. Not if you measure it by resources or effort, it isn't. It is a minor item in the Pentagon budget. Warren Strobel and Jonathan Landay note that the way Pakistan remains menaced by the Pakistani Taliban and by remnants of al-Qaeda show that Bush was mistaken to run off to Iraq before finishing the job.

Admiral Mike Mullen, on a visit to Pakistan, admitted that the threat level from the Pakistani Taliban has increased, but said that it does not threaten the Pakistani state or control of the country's nuclear weapons. He also quite sensibly demurred from noises made by presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle that the US might go in after al-Qaeda unilaterally: "I give no credence to the notion that the United States could in any way, shape or form invade or attack Pakistan . . ."

The good news is that Pakistanis will be able to go to Indian films in the cinema for the first time since 1965. It isn't actually a big thing, since Lahore is close enough to India to get Amritsar tv and in any case a lot of middle class families have cable or satellite, including pan-South Asian channels such as Zeetv, which show the Bollywood films. In fact, film going in Pakistan is largely an activity for young men, and families prefer to watch a DVD at home. There are only a couple of hundred of cinemas left in Pakistan, victims of the boycott of Indian films and of Muslim fundamentalism.

Is Mulla Omar in the Pakistani city of Quetta and Usama Bin Laden in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas nearby?. Which Washington official is leaking this charge and why? If the charge is true, why haven't they been found and arrested? Curioser and curioser.

The Pakistani government, of course, denied the allegations
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

7 US Soldiers Killed; Public Blames Iraq War for Economic Woes

5 US soldiers were killed by roadside bombs on Friday, 4 northwest of Baghdad and one in Kirkuk Province. Note that both these regions are Sunni Arab, and that it makes no sense that Shiite Iran gave explosively formed projectiles to Sunni Arab guerrillas in these areas, since they could also be deployed against Shiite troops and paramilitaries that Iran supports.

It was announced on Friday that on Tuesday, Iraqi guerrillas killed two US soldiers with an improvised bomb in Diyala Province. A third soldier was wounded.

Over two-thirds of Americans think that getting out of Iraq will help the US economy a great deal (48%) or at least somewhat (20%).

Myself, I think that is the death knell of the Iraq War and spells very bad news for John McCain. McCain's argument is that if Iraq can be pacified, such that troops are not being killed, then there is no intrinsic objection to the US keeping bases there. But first of all, his premise is not evident, and the news of the troop deaths this week argues against complacency on that score. Besides, the public is noting an objection even in the case of no troop deaths, which is the extra expense.

If the war really is going to cost $2 trillion, they can think of other ways they'd like to spend that money, including on unemployment checks for themselves since they are afraid they are about to be fired because of the recession. Hearteningly, even after decades of Republican propaganda about the miraculous properties of "tax cuts" (mainly on their own rich selves), more Americans still think a good way to get out of the recession is for the government to spend more money on health care, education and housing than think it can all be fixed with a tax cut.

Only 28 percent think that anything Bush does is going to help them avoid economic bad times.

Since McCain is trying out for the role of Son of Bush, that is also bad news for him.

Angelina Jolie in Baghdad as a UN special envoy is lobbying for something to be done for the over 2 million internally displaced persons in Iraq. If you count the externally displaced in Syria and Jordan, it is more like 4 million.

It is the US Congress that should be funding such aid on a large scale, since it voted to let Bush invade the country in the first place. Can't Moveon.org or someone take this campaign up? I can't imagine the government of Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki doing anything effective about it.

Manuel Miranda has lambasted the US embassy in Baghdad for being mired in red tape and being unable to implement Bush's policies. I would find this charge more plausible if there were any evidence that Bush has any policies other than muddling through. I'd love to know the backstory here, since some of what Miranda says sounds plausible, but given how he starts out I am very suspicious of his motives. Has he seen the writing on the wall for America in Iraq and is he setting up the State Department to take the fall rather than the Republican Party?

' Miranda listed several examples of what he regards as failures, ranging from "a near complete lack" of coordination with other agencies and the Iraqi government, withholding information, blaming Iraqis for all shortcomings, providing bad advice on legislative matters and wasting millions in taxpayers' money. Among them was the repeated pushing of Iraqis to accept a flawed law governing the distribution of oil revenue, which he said would have been rejected as untenable by "any experienced international lawyer." '

For more on Miranda as a serial GOP leaker, see Veracifier.

Russia seems set to write off all but about $1 billion of Iraq's $13 bn. debt to Moscow. This step is a loss leader, and in return Russian oil firms are going to do very well in new bids let over the next few years. The Russians had commitments from Saddam to develop the West Qurna fields, and that is still a possibility. After all, there is a lot more than $12 bn. to be made in the Iraq hydrocarbon fields. China forgave $8 bn. in loans last summer and already the Iraqis are saying that it would make sense for China to develop the al-Ahdab fields.

Talks with Western oil majors, including Exxon-Mobil and Chevron on technical service agreements are set to resume in March. Hat tip to the invaluable Iraq Oil Report.

Sunni Arab members of pro-American Awakening Councils in Diyala Province have gone on strike to protest the actions of the Shiite police chief. They say he is running anti-Sunni death squads and they can't work with him. Diyala is 60% Sunni Arab, but in the January 2005 provincial elections, the Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq won because the Sunnis boycotted the polls. This incident is an example of why provincial elections desperately need to be held if a chance for social peace is to be realized.

McClatchy reports political violence for Friday:

'

Bahgdad

Head of Sahwa in 14th of Ramadhan neighbourhood, Mshahda, 15 km to the north of Baghdad City was assassinated by gunmen at around 05:00 pm last night. 2 of his security detail were injured.

A mortar shell hit an orchard in Doura at 04:00 pm. No casualties were reported.

3 bodies were found in Baghdad by Iraqi Police today. 1 in Slaikh, 1 in Palestine St and 1 in Mansour.

Diyala

Clashes between Concerned Local Citizens groups, specifically 1920 Revolution Brigades and Iraqi Police in Tahrir neighbourhood, central Baquba and the town of Buhruz to the south of Baquba, no casualties were reported. The security forces have, however, imposed a curfew in both Baquba and Buhruz until further notice.

Anbar

Clashes between Anbar Police and gunmen in Andulus neighbourhood, east Fellujah resulted in the death of 1 gunman and the arrest of another and the injury of 1 policeman.

Basra

Gunmen kidnapped 4 civilians from al-Sakhra Church, Manawi Basha neighbourhood, central Basra, yesterday evening, said eye witnesses. The 4 Christians are activists in missionary work with the Norwegian Churches Organization who work out of al-Sakhra church, confirms Churches in Southern Iraq official. Basra Police deny any knowledge of the incident.'

Reuters adds:

' BAQUBA - Gunmen in police uniform stormed a house and killed five people including a woman and then blew up the house on Thursday in central Baquba, police said.

NEAR BAQUBA - Police found a grave containing eight bodies including three females just north of Baquba, police said.

BASRA - The body of the imam of a Sunni mosque was found on Thursday in a morgue in central Basra, 550 km (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad, the Muslim Scholars Association said in a statement.

HAWIJA - A bomb in a parked car wounded two policemen in Hawija, 70 km (45 miles) southwest of Kirkuk, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a university student in a bus terminal in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, on Thursday, police said.

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces arrested "a special groups leader" -- part of a group that has splintered from Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army militia -- and three others just south of Baghdad on Thursday, the U.S. military said. '

Check out Barnett Rubin's important recent blog entries on Afghanistan and the narcotics problem.

At the Napoleon's Egypt Blog, newly posted letters from Gen. Berthier on the invasion of Syria and the siege of Acre.

Check out recent essays at Tomdispatch.com, always worth reading.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Mayor of Tikrit Killed; US Raids Sadr City; Sistani reduces Workload

Sunni Arab guerrillas are increasingly deploying explosively formed projectiles, roadside bombs that can pierce even tank armor. My guess is that the more sophisticated EFPs supposedly coming only from Iran are also sometimes made in Iraq, and that any Iranian ones are on the black market and could be bought by anyone, including Sunni groups.

The International Red Cross reports that many fewer displaced Iraqis went home in January than in December, and that most returnees from Syria came back reluctantly because they had run out of money.

Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called on his Mahdi Army fighters to maintain their freeze on paramilitary activities on Thursday. The call came in the wake of a US raid on Special Group cells in the Shiite slum of Sadr City (East Baghdad), in which they arrested 16 persons and injured several others, including at least one woman. Sadr says he considers those who continue to engage in violence rogues, but local Sadrists denied that those arrested were Special Group commandos.

The International Crisis Group concludes that the Mahdi Army ceasefire remains extremely fragile. Because of arrests such as those on Thursday, many Mahdi Army commanders want the ceasefire lifted so that they can return fire and defend themselves.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has much lightened his workload and has restricted the range of his intervention in Iraqi politics, according to AP. Sistani was born in August of 1930 according to the Arabic biography at his web site. He came to Najaf from Iran in late 1951 and stayed, with the exception of 6 months that he spent back in Iran around 1961. He will therefore be 78 in August. He may have health problems (he had an angioplasty in August, 2004), but his age in and of itself couldn't explain his reduced schedule. Grand Ayatollahs do not typically retire, and his predecessor died at age 91 or so in 1992. But were Sistani to die, he would be succeeded by one of the three other grand ayatollahs in Najaf. The two most likely contenders are Bashir Najafi of Pakistan and Ishaq Fayyad of Afghanistan. Fayyad is the more pro-American of the two, but also the most enthusiastic for moving Iraq toward being an Islamic Republic with sharia or Islamic canon law as the law of the land. Typically who the leading grand ayatollah is becomes clear within three or four years of the death of the previous incumbent. Grand Ayatollahs are not typically succeeded by their sons. Muhsin al-Hakim, who died in 1971, was succeeded by Abu'l-Qasim Khoei, and Khoei was succeeded by Sistani. Sistani's son is in his 40s and won't be eligible to succeed his father for many years, though he can be influential and can play politics.

The Bush administration consistently gives us Attorneys General who lie about what the law is. Ironically, the defense Mukasey suggests for telecom companies that illegally turned over consumer records to government officials who had no warrant to request them, is that they were "following orders." I think there were some trials where that excuse was disallowed.

Iraqi scientist Saad Tawfiq, the closest thing the CIA had to a horse's mouth, warned the US before the war that Saddam had closed all of his WMD programs by 1995. He was blown off and ignored.

It may be that the CIA analysts most willing to listen to him were marginalized and even fired by the pro-war faction around VP Dick Cheney.

Other Iraqi scientists, such as Imad Khadduri, also tried to tell the world that Iraq had no nuclear weapons program. I cited this article at my blog before the war in Feb. 2003 at a time when the corporate media were parroting Bush's fantastic and false allegations.

Someone should do a study of how many times the corporate media brought Khidhir Hamza, a Chalabi plant, on evening news programs in 2002 and early 2003, and look into exactly who kept booking him and who kept pushing him on the producers and why Tawfiq's and Khadduri's stories were buried. Hamza was a computer scientist who had something to do with the nuclear program for like six months in 1989 and had no way of knowing anything later than that, but he got all our media face time. The US media system is corrupt, and it is harming and sometimes even killing us.

[See the following posts by Khadduri:

On Hamza:

''Saddam's bombmaker' is full of lies'' November 27, 2002

''Khidhir Hamza: The bogus intelligence source'' September 29, 2003

On the "intelligence" of the the American Intelligence and the US corporate media system:

But, but .. "It's just a -- it's unnatural" July 04, 2005

The "we did not know" lie January 03, 2006

An Arabic saying: "the rope of lying is short but enough to hang oneself" ]

18% of Iraq War veterans are unemployed, and those who get jobs often get very low-paying ones.

Stiff upper lip, old, like, dude. The British military wants to use facebook and myspace to shore up the UK public's support for the Afghanistan war.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

'Baghdad

. . . A roadside bomb exploded targeting a police patrol in Salman Pak to the southeast of Baghdad injuring 2 policemen.

A suspicious abandoned carrier bag was reported near a girl’s high school in Hay Dragh, Mansour district in central Baghdad. Security forces confirmed that it contained an IED and attempted to detonate it under control but were unsuccessful. It exploded and seriously injured 3 policemen at around 07:00 this morning.

A Toyota Coaster bus exploded targeting a group of Sahwa members during a raid they were conducting on suspected houses in al-Mada’in, Salman Pak area to the south east of Baghdad, killing 3 and injuring 7 al-Sahwa members.

Gunmen driving a civilian car opened fire on another civilian car carrying 5 men who work as cleaners in the Baghdad Municipality near al-Nidaa Mosque, al-Qahira neighbourhood, north Baghdad at around 5 pm. The driver was shot several times and died instantly, their car then crashed into another car on the road. The other 4 survived the incident with superficial injuries.

5 bodies were found in Baghdad by Iraqi Police. 1 in Karrada, 1 in Palestine St, 1 in Saab, 1 in Ghazaliyah and 1 in Hurriyah.

Salahuddin

4 civilians [were killed], amongst whom was the brother of the Head of the Tikrit City Council and engineer Hameed Aziz al-Janabi who had a position in the Engineering Department in Tikrit University. The four were killed in an area called al-Dhiba’i to the south west of Tikrit City yesterday evening.

Lieutenant Khalid Kwan killed and 1 other officer and 1 policeman injured as a roadside bomb went off targeting an Iraqi Police patrol in Siniyah district, 7 km to the west of Baiji city this afternoon.

Diyala

IED explodes near a group of young shepherd boys out with their lambs near al-Shaikhi village, 7 km to the south of Baquba this morning. 4 of the boys, who were between 4 and 10 years of age, were injured.

Al-Qaeda raided al-Muradiyah village, 10 km to the south of Baquba at 10:00 this morning and broke into one of its houses . They ordered the women outside the house then shot to death 3 brothers inside the house. They then put explosives inside the house and blew it up.

Mosul

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Intisar neighbourhood, east Mosul this morning, injuring 2 policemen.

3 policemen were injured as IED exploded targeting their patrol in al-Masarif neighbourhood, east Mosul this morning.

Gunmen burned down 8 communications towers in the city of Mosul today. Al-Siddiq and al-Noor neighbourhoods were amongst the neighbourhoods whose towers were burnt down. The towers belonged to Asia Cell mobile telephone network company.'

Reuters adds further information, including this item: "KERBALA - The Iraqi police arrested 11 members of the Shi'ite "Soldiers of Heaven" cult near the city of Kerbala, 110 km (70 miles) southwest of Baghdad, police said."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

McCain as Nixon?

John McCain is the Republican nominee for president. He promises "victory" in Iraq while never defining the word, except that he sometimes promises a long-term enmeshing of the US in a Korea-like war and decades-long military aftermath.

It is eerily familiar. The president who started the war is not running for office. His popularity is in tatters, at an all-time low. The war has dragged on for years and the public has turned against it.

A candidate runs on a doctrine of "quick victory." He warns that if victory is not attained, the US will suffer a humiliation and will lose many other countries to a globe-straddling conspiracy, opening it to being attacked.

On being elected, the new president seeks "quick victory" by expanding the war, intensively bombing a neighboring country and continuing to bomb the initial enemy back to the stone age. A prominent general claims that the US is within "an eyelash" of victory.

The war drags on another six years, killing thousands more Americans and hundreds of thousands more locals. A whistleblower reveals to the American public the numerous deceptions and illegalities that the president has committed in the prosecution of the war. He in response forms a covert dirty tricks cell to break into the whistleblower's office . . .

Here is part of Nixon's "silent majority" speech of 1969. It is profoundly dishonest. Try substituting "Iraq" for Vietnam and see if it doesn't sound like a McCain stump speech. The form of reasoning, the structure of the speech, its language and implications are all echoed perfectly by McCain today. I'll quote one of the latter below.

Nixon:

' Now, let me begin by describing the situation I found when I was inaugurated on January 20.

--The war had been going on for 4 years.

--31,000 Americans had been killed in action.

--The training program for the South Vietnamese was behind schedule.

--540,000 Americans were in Vietnam with no plans to reduce the number.

--No progress had been made at the negotiations in Paris and the United States had not put forth a comprehensive peace proposal.

--The war was causing deep division at home and criticism from many of our friends as well as our enemies abroad.

In view of these circumstances there were some who urged that I end the war at once by ordering the immediate withdrawal of all American forces.

From a political standpoint this would have been a popular and easy course to follow. After all, we became involved in the war while my predecessor was in office. I could blame the defeat which would be the result of my action on him and come out as the Peacemaker. Some put it to me quite bluntly: This was the only way to avoid allowing Johnson’s war to become Nixon's war.

But I had a greater obligation than to think only of the years of my administration and of the next election. I had to think of the effect of my decision on the next generation and on the future of peace and freedom in America and in the world.

Let us all understand that the question before us is not whether some Americans are for peace and some Americans are against peace. The question at issue is not whether Johnson's war becomes Nixon's war.

The great question is: How can we win America's peace? . . .

For the South Vietnamese, our precipitate withdrawal would inevitably allow the Communists to repeat the massacres which followed their takeover in the North 15 years before.

--They then murdered more than 50,000 people and hundreds of thousands more died in slave labor camps.

--We saw a prelude of what would happen in South Vietnam when the Communists entered the city of Hue last year. During their brief rule there, there was a bloody reign of terror in which 3,000 civilians were clubbed, shot to death, and buried in mass graves.

--With the sudden collapse of our support, these atrocities of Hue would become the nightmare of the entire nation-and particularly for the million and a half Catholic refugees who fled to South Vietnam when the Communists took over in the North.

For the United States, this first defeat in our Nation's history would result in a collapse of confidence in American leadership, not only in Asia but throughout the world. . .

For the future of peace, precipitate withdrawal would thus be a disaster of immense magnitude.

--A nation cannot remain great if it betrays its allies and lets down its friends.

--Our defeat and humiliation in South Vietnam without question would promote recklessness in the councils of those great powers who have not yet abandoned their goals of world conquest.

--This would spark violence wherever our commitments help maintain the peace-in the Middle East, in Berlin, eventually even in the Western Hemisphere.

Ultimately, this would cost more lives.

It would not bring peace; it would bring more war.

For these reasons, I rejected the recommendation that I should end the war by immediately withdrawing all of our forces. I chose instead to change American policy on both the negotiating front and battlefront.'

Compare these highlights to a typical McCain speech on Iraq, and I think you will find them eerily similar (note that no serious analyst thinks that the foreign fighters, "al-Qaeda", are actually very numerous or significant in Iraq):

' "Thank you. I want to talk today about the national security challenge of our time, the war which radical Islamist extremists have been waging against us for the better part of three decades, and in which Iraq, according to the commander of our forces there, General Petraeus and our enemies, is a central front. My father's generation successfully fought the Second World War. Succeeding American generations successfully fought the Cold War. And, my friends, we will successfully defend ourselves against this new and very dangerous threat. But as we have done in the past, we must not take counsel of our fears, nor avert our eyes from the imminence and complexity of the threat, nor let our will weaken because of the sacrifices we have already made and the false assumptions and tactical mistakes we have made in Iraq and in the wider struggle against enemies who are as determined to harm us as we must be to defeat them.

"Last week I was in Iraq, and I saw there the connection between our efforts to combat al Qaeda and the broader War on Terror. . .

"I note these items not to present a rosy scenario, but rather to illustrate the role Iraq plays in the wider effort to combat al Qaeda and other terrorist elements. Now that the military effort in Iraq is showing some signs of progress, the space is opening for political progress. Yet rather than seizing the opportunity, the government of Prime Minister Maliki is not functioning as it must. We see little evidence of reconciliation and little progress toward meeting the benchmarks laid out by the President. The Iraqi government can function; the question is whether it will. If there is to be hope of a sustainable end to the violence that so plagues that country, Iraqi political leaders must seize this opportunity. It will not come around again.

"Most Americans only became acutely aware of the threat from Islamist extremists on September 11, 2001. The worst attack ever on American soil brought out the best of America as we came together to defend our freedom. Thanks to the heroism of so many, we went on the offensive, capturing and killing terrorists all over the world, rooting them out of their lairs in Afghanistan, and overthrowing their Taliban collaborators.

"Today, our goal must be to effectively counter the plans of our enemies not simply with military force but with all the other tools at our disposal - economic, diplomatic, political, legal, and ideological. We must not only track down and capture or kill confirmed jihadists, we must stop a new generation from joining the fight. This Long War is not with Islam but within Islam - a small minority of extremists against the majority of moderates. My administration would pour far more resources into helping moderate Muslims - women's rights campaigners, labor leaders, tolerant imams, lawyers, journalists, and many others - resist a well-financed campaign of extremism that is tearing their societies apart. . .

"To talk about the struggle against Islamic extremists is, of necessity, to talk about our war with al Qaeda in Iraq. Many Democrats claim this is a conflict we cannot win. They ignore the consequences of a US defeat at the hands of al Qaeda and some ignore al Qaeda altogether. Just this week, Senators Clinton and Byrd wrote an op-ed about the war in Iraq and never once mentioned al Qaeda or the terrorist presence in Iraq. Foreign jihadists - Al Qaeda operatives - are responsible for at least 80% of the suicide bombings that are the driving force of sectarian strife. They are in this war to win and we cannot let them.

"Defeatism will not buy peace in our time. It will only lead to more bloodshed and to more American casualties in the future. If we choose to lose in Iraq, our enemies will hit us harder in Afghanistan hoping to erode our political will and encourage calls in Western capitals for withdrawal and accommodation with our enemy there as well. '

And, just remember. Nixon ran on "quick victory" several years into an unpopular war, and won.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Arab Intelligence Organizations Hold Secret Meeting To Confront Shiites In Iraq

The USG Open Source Center translates a report from the Iranian Fars News Agency that summarizes an article in the Iraqi newspaper al-Bayanat al-Jadidah claiming that Sunni Arab intelligence agencies recently met in Amman to discuss ways of undermining the Shiite government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and of replacing al-Qaeda commanders in Iraq with Sunni fighters more acceptable to the locals. Note that in reprinting this piece I am making no assertion that it is true or valid. In particular, I find it completely implausible that the Egyptian government, which despises and fears al-Qaeda and the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, would lend any support to the Salafi Jihadis in Iraq (Iraq is not that far away from Egypt). The article does convey attitudes and beliefs that circulate in the Iraqi press. Caveat Emptor.


'FNA: Arab Intelligence Organizations Hold Secret Meeting To Confront Shiites In Iraq
Fars News Agency
Wednesday, February 6, 2008 . . .
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Fars News Agency: An Iraqi newspaper has published reports regarding the secret meeting of the intelligence and security institutions of six Arab countries, i.e. Libya, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Egypt, that had gathered in Jordan to confront the spreading of the Shiite's power and stop the administration of Nuri Al-Maliki from gaining strength.

According to the Fars News Agency, an informed political source, has told the Iraqi Newspaper, Al-bayenatol-Jadidah: "The intelligence agents of these countries have participated in a meeting headed by the Egyptian Intelligence Organization in the capital of Jordan and they have emphasized on the necessity to topple the administration of Nuri Al-Maliki, which they have called a Shiite administration."

According to this informed source, the Saudi officials participating in this meeting, have tabled a report which indicated: any progress in Iraq and establishment of a democratic government that belong to the Shiites, would be the harbinger of the termination of the Arab institutions and also failure of the historical agreements of the Arab states with the USA, especially in the military field.

Also, the Representative of Egypt in this meeting . . . delivered a report that stated: the Shiite leaders should be at the first line of political pressures and the Iraqi government should join the six-party treaty.

In the continuation of this meeting . . . Saudi Arabia and UAE accepted to pay for stationing certain forces in the south of Iraq and the city of Mosul.

The Iraqi newspaper has quoted its sources as saying: some Arab organizations are determined to oust the commanders of the paramilitary groups in Iraq that have ties to Al-Qa'ida and they wish to replace them with Al-Qa'ida elements [who] enjoy more popularity.

The Representative of the UAE in the secret meeting of Amman accepted the responsibility of supporting Iraqi opposition radio and TV stations and establishment of more Iraqi networks and newspapers and made it a commitment to continue to do so until the collapse of Maliki's administration.

This report indicated that the success of the Iraqi administration in getting the Sunnis involved in the war against Al-Qa'ida and other militant groups has reduced the possibility of toppling the administration. . .


(Description of Source: Tehran Fars News Agency in Persian -- (Khabargozari-ye Fars) is a privately-owned news agency which began operating in mid-November 2002. On 25 December 2007, Hamid Reza Moqaddamfar replaced Fars News Agency's (FNA) Managing Director Mehdi Faza`eli. In a gathering of FNA managers, Moqaddamfar said that FNA follows "Principle-ists" policies and its activities are in line with the Islamic Republic and the Vali-ye Faqih.) '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Gates: US Will not Pledge to Defend Iraq

Prince Andrew thinks Bush is weak in the area of British Empire history, and that the stubborn disregard of British experiences and advice is part of the reason for the debacle.

The Status of Forces Agreement envisioned by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will not contain any provision that the US will come to Iraq's aid if it is attacked. Such a commitment would have required approval of the Senate. Note that US presidents have designated 14 non-NATO allies, who have special access to US weaponry. The US has not committed to defend any of them against aggression, unlike the case with NATO itself.

The Iraqi parliament's approval of the new budget has been delayed over how much to allot to the Kurds.

About 100 guerrillas of "al-Qaeda in Iraq" have established themselves in other countries, as Iraq has become too difficult for them.

The Iraqi government is finally repairing the Askariyah Shrine (golden dome) of Samarra, a Shiite holy site that Sunni Arabs have bombed twice. The February, 2006, bombing set off an orgy of sectarian violence that lasted a year and a half.

The US military is exhausted from frequent and long deployments to Iraq, with no end in sight. The shell game of removing the extra troops sent in for the escalation in 2007 (the "surge") and allowing urban guerrillas to substitute themselves for them will not actually alleve anything.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq for Wednesday:

' MUQDADIYA - Five headless bodies were found in a village near the town of Muqdadiya, 90 km (55 miles) northeast of Baghdad, the Iraqi army said.

BAQUBA - Three headless bodies were found near the city of Baquba, 65 km (45 miles) north of Baghdad, the Iraqi army said. . .

BAQUBA - Three women and one man were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded near their vehicle near Baquba, police said. . .

MOSUL - Two policemen were killed and three others, including a civilian, were wounded in a drive-by shooting in Mosul, police said. . .

SAMARRA - Gunmen killed two Iraqi soldiers in an attack on an Iraqi army checkpoint in the city of Samarra, 100 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. One civilian was wounded by random fire which broke out after the attack. . .

SAMARRA - Gunmen killed Issam Hassani, a member of the Association of Muslim Scholars, a hardline group of Sunni clerics, in his shop in Samarra on Tuesday, police said.

BAGHDAD - Three people were wounded by a roadside bomb near al-Andalus Square in central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - The bodies of four people were found in different districts of Baghdad on Tuesday, police said. . .

NAJAF - Police said they found the bodies of a 16-year-old girl and young man in the city of Najaf, 160 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad. The girl had been stabbed and the man had suffered severe head injuries.

DIWANIYA - Four people were killed and nine others wounded, including seven policemen, when a roadside bomb exploded near a bus carrying detainees in the city of Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said.

HILLA - The body of a man who had been shot in the head was found near the city of Hilla, 100 km (60 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

TUZ KHURMATO - A woman was killed and two men wounded when a roadside bomb exploded near a minibus on Tuesday in the town of Tuz Khurmato, 180 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.'

McClatchy has more
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

A McCain/ Huckabee Ticket? Would Huckabee Sink McCain?

In his victory speech on super Tuesday, John McCain said:

' I want to congratulate Governor Huckabee and his supporters on their success today. Not for the first time, he has surprised the rest of us, and proved again his exceptional skills as a campaigner, and the extraordinary commitment and determination of the people who believe so passionately in him. I salute you.'

The friendliness of the words contrasted starkly with his similar congratulation to Mitt Romney.

Some think McCain will tap Huckabee for his vice president.

Although on the surface, this move might seem logical, since McCain can't get the evangelical vote out by himself, I think it is very likely that Huckabee could sink McCain's candidacy. There are 12 years of wacko sermons by Huckabee somewhere, which could well leak, and most ordinary Americans will be completely turned off by the weird assertions in them.

On the other side of the ledger, Huckabee's presence on the ticket may not be enough to stir enthusiasm among evangelicals themselves for McCain (despite all the talk of 'balancing the ticket', people actually tend to vote for the president).

A third of evangelicals now identify as Democrats, and over twenty percent say their faith in the Republican Party has been shaken. Some 67% say that ending the Iraq War is a high priority for them, and less than half talk about "winning" the war a la McCain. McCain's hundred years war is not exactly going to hearten this group.

Evangelicals are also very concerned about the economy, and many have concluded that fighting poverty is a high priority. McCain is not good on economics by his own admission, and he, despite his good press, is no friend of the poor.

So if evangelicals react to the top of the ticket, they aren't going to be energized by McCain, and it isn't clear that a weak Huckabee VP in waiting will be enough to change their minds.

And, there are lots more Huckabee gaffes and weirdnesses out there, like saying that Mormons believe satan is Jesus' brother or saying that Pakistani illegal aliens are second only to Mexicans in numbers or saying that the Palestinian state should be established in Egypt or Saudi Arabia, or saying that Saddam's WMD is now in Jordan (a US ally), etc., etc. Yes, he comes across as likeable on t.v. But all it would take is for the press to start paying close attention to his bizarre pronouncements, and the likeability quotient could fall rapidly. And, he could take McCain down with him.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Hot Pursuit into Syria, Iran, had been authorized; US Kills Innocents at Adwar Mass Grave with 50 Bodies Found at Samarra

The Bush administration authorized hot pursuit of Iraqi Baathists into Syria and Iran, according to a just-released document at wikileak. The document also reveals that as late as 2005, the US military authorities were still unaware that the "mobile weapons labs" were a Neocon scam and never existed. (Biological weapons labs require a clean room, difficult to install on a winnebago).

The document shows that by 2005, the US military had a de facto truce with the Mahdi Army (a paramilitary whose political party parent actually joined the Iraqi government later that year).

It also shows that the Mojahedin-i Khalq terror group engaged in hostile action toward the US forces, but also were granted a truce in 2005. The MEK is an Iranian terror group that has killed civilians inside Iran and was given a base in Iraq by Saddam Hussein. US Neoconservatives have tended to support it and to want to use it to do further terrorism against Iran. The MEK has been defended by Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (the think tank of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee) and by notorious Islamophobe and Giuliani adviser Daniel Pipes. Danny Postel explains cogently. In other words, key figures in the Israel lobbies support a terrorist group that has fired on US troops.

US forces raided the village of Adwar south of Tikrit on Monday, and appear to have mistakenly killed an Awakening Council fighter, a woman and two children, wounding another girl as well. It may be that they were baited into firing on the family by anti-American guerrillas. This mistake is the second such in recent days, and adds to a strain felt between the Sunni Arab Awakening Councils and their American patrons.

The LAT reports on how difficult it has been for the US military to root out the Salafi Jihadi extremists from Diyala province.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that hundreds of Iraq's actors and performers staged a demonstration on Sunday in front of the national theater in Baghdad to protest their loss of livelihood and dire economic straits. They called on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to improve their incomes just as he had for government employees. Unlike US screenwriters, they can't even go on strike-- they are already largely unemployed.

Reuters reports political violence on Monday:

'SAMARRA - Iraqi police and members of a neighborhood police unit found a mass grave containing about 50 bodies in an area west of Samarra, 100 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. Security forces had been searching for al Qaeda fighters when they found a house with 10 people inside who had been kidnapped from the area. Some of those inside led police to the grave. Three car bombs were also found.

KHALIS - Six suspected militants were killed during operations by U.S. forces targeting al Qaeda near Khalis, 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad. Three died when one of the suspected militants detonated a vest packed with explosives. Another three were killed by U.S. soldiers in a nearby building.

[Taji] - One member of a neighborhood police unit and a civilian were killed by a suicide bomber close to an internet cafe at Taji, 20 km (12 miles) north of Baghdad, a local tribal leader said. . .'

McClatchy adds:

'Baghdad

Two civilians were injured in an IED explosion that targeted an American convoy in Palestine Street east Baghdad around 12:00 pm.

Police found four bodies in Baghdad today. Three bodies were found in Rusafa, the eastern side of Baghdad in the following neighborhoods (1 body in Ur, 1 body in Jisr Diyala and 1 body in Shaab). The fourth body was found in Washash neighborhood in Karkh, the western side of Baghdad.

Misan

Three officers in the Iraqi army were killed by gunmen in three different neighborhoods in Umara city south of Baghdad today morning. The first officer was a colonel who was a Lieutenant Colonel who was killed in al Askari neighborhood downtown Umara city. The second officer was a Major who was killed in the new buildings neighborhood downtown [A]mara city while the third officer was Lieutenant who was killed in his car while he was returning back home in al Uroba neighborhood downtown [A]mara city.

Anbar

A source in the Sahwa council of Sheikh Sanad said that three members of the Sahwa were killed and five others were injured when a suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest detonated himself near one of the check point of the Sahwa office of Sheikh Sanad Abdul Salim in Thira’a Dijla area east of Ramadi city at 3:30 pm.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkey Hits 70 Sites in Iraq; US Accidentally Kills 13; Sistani Aides Kidapped in Basra

The Turkish air force bombed 70 targets inside Iraq in Kurdistan, which they allege are bases for the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrilla group. The PKK has killed scores of Turks in recent months, before retreating to safe haven in Iraq.

The US military on Monday mistakenly bombed a home in Iskandariya south of Baghdad, killing 13 persons including women and a child, according to Iraq police. They blamed indirect and faulty communication with the local Awakening Council. There will be more outrage about this incident in Iraq than will be reported in the US press.

Iraq faces severe wheat shortages in 2008. Oh, great, that's what they really need on top of everything else.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that in the negotiations over a status of forces agreement between Iraq and the US, the Iraqis are demanding a guarantee that the US will never attack a neighbor of Iraq from Iraqi soil. (I don't think that was what Cheney was going for).

Bush presented a phony budget to Congress for $3.1 trillion, which contains an unrealistically low estimate for spending on Iraq and Afghanistan of $70 bn. The Democrats denounced it and even Republicans complained about the fudging of budget numbers for the Iraq War.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Monday:

' Baghdad

- Around 8 a.m., a roadside bomb exploded at Hurriyah neighborhood. Two civilians were injured in this incident.

- Around 9:30 a.m., gunmen assassinated Waleed Haitham Idrees, an employee of the ministry of foreign affairs, in Mansour neighborhood ( west Baghdad ) near the Ameerat intersection.

- Around 10 a.m., a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in the Jisr Diyala neighborhood. Two policemen were injured in that incident with some damage to their vehicle.

- At noon, an IED targeted a U.S. patrol at Zayouna neighborhood near the Thulatha shopping center (east Baghdad). No casualties were reported.

- Police found two unidentified dead bodies in Baghdad today . . .

Diyala

- Around noon, gunmen opened fire on a civilian mini bus near Abu Saida intersection (20 km east of Baquba) . The driver was killed along with a 7-year-old girl. Her 4-year-old brother was injured.

- Around 4 p.m., gunmen broke into one of the houses at Tahreer neighborhood in Baquba city kidnapping the owner. His body was found in the area an hour after the kidnapping.

Basra

- Around 9:30 a.m., a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol at Al-Maqal neighborhood (north Basra). No casualties recorded, but some damage to the police vehicle.

- Around 4:30 p.m., gunmen kidnapped two cleric[s,] men who represent Ayyat Allah Imam Ali Sistani in Basra city. Those two men are Ali Hassan Al-Khafaji, Imam of Al-Mudhafar mosque, and Abdul Rahman Al-Idreesi, the lecturer of Imam Abass school in Basra city, who were riding in a car in the Tuayssa neighborhood near Lebanon casino in downtown Basra when the gunmen kidnapped them. An hour later, kidnappers called for a ransom of $100,000. '

This last item is a testimony to the real state of security in Basra, and has the potential for spiraling into yet more violence.

Reuters adds:

' MOSUL - Gunmen killed three policemen in two separate drive-by shootings in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

* KIRKUK - A roadside bomb aimed at a police patrol wounded two civilians in Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

SALMAN PAK - Iraqi and U.S. forces killed seven gunmen, wounded another one and arrested 28 suspects during air assaults targeting al Qaeda near Salman Pak, 30 km (20 miles) south of Baghdad, the U.S. military said. . . '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Zogby: McCain Dominates; Obama Enjoys Super Sunday

Zogby is circulating the below:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Ahead of Super Tuesday, McCain Dominates Everywhere Except California; Obama Enjoys a Super Sunday

UTICA, New York—Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain leads in three out of four key Super Tuesday states - winning more than 50% support in New York and New Jersey - while Democrat Barack Obama enjoyed a big Sunday bounce in important Democratic contests, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby telephone tracking poll shows.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, however, was ahead in California, expanding his lead there Sunday by six points over McCain, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee places a distant third in the Golden State. Huckabee finds himself in third place in three out of four GOP races, the exception being Missouri, where he stands in second place ahead of Romney.

In Democratic contests, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama leads rival New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in three of the four Democratic races surveyed, and the two were tied in the fourth. Though he draws strong support from black voters, he also does well among whites, and was ahead of Clinton with white voters in California.

This is the second release of figures from rolling telephone tracking polls in New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Missouri and California. The surveys were conducted Feb. 1-3 using live telephone operators from Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York. In Georgia, only the Democratic race was polled, and in New York, only the Republican race was measured. Sample sizes and margins of error for each of the eight surveys is listed in the synopsis below each chart. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Pollster John Zogby: "A very big single day for Obama in California (49%-32% over Clinton) and Missouri (49%-39% single day). In California, Obama has widened his lead in the north and pulled ahead in the south. He leads among Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates, men (by 21 points),among whites, and African Americans. He holds big leads among voters who say Iraq and immigration are their top concerns. Clinton holds a big lead among Hispanics (though Obama has made some inroads), women, voters over 65, and has pulled ahead among those citing the economy.

"In Missouri, Obama leads two to one in the St. Louis region, and has solid leads with independents, voters under 50, and African Americans. He also leads among Missouri women. Clinton leads among whites and has big leads in the Kansas City and southwestern region.

"New Jersey tied in the single day as well as three-day. It is razor thin close in all regions. Obama has 12 point leads among Independents and men, while Clinton is up by 12 among women. Obama has a 25 point lead among young voters, while Clinton leads among older voters.

"Among California Republicans, a big day for Romney. He now leads both in the north and south, among women, voters under 65, and holds huge leads among both conservatives and very conservative voters.

"For Missouri Republicans there is a split vote against McCain -- with the differences mainly among conservatives and very conservative voters.

"Still looks like a good day ahead for McCain, but a Romney victory in California could mean some meetings on Wednesday morning."

New Jersey:

McCain continued to dominate in the Garden State, though his lead dropped by two points, from 54% to 52% since the previous poll. Romney edged up from 23% to 26% in the same period. Half (50%) of Republican voters said they backed the Arizona senator, compared to 27% for Romney and just 7% for Huckabee. McCain did even better with independents, getting 58% of their support. Voters over 30 in all age categories here liked McCain, giving him 50% or more of their support. He was also ahead among those under 30, who gave him 44% support. The New Jersey GOP tracking survey included 835 likely voters and carried a margin for error of +/- 3.4 points.

Obama and Clinton were dead-even in New Jersey, each with 43% each and with 10% of voters undecided. Clinton was ahead among Democratic voters, 45% to 42%, but Obama had more support from independents, with 48% of their support to Clinton’s 34%. Half of women (50%) supported the former First Lady, compared to 38% for Obama. It was almost a mirror image among men, however, with 48% supporting Obama to 35% for Clinton. This survey included 847 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.


New York:

McCain’s lead broadened in New York state, the tracking poll here showed. He gained four points over the day before to end with 53% support. Romney, meanwhile, lost four points and had 19% support at the end of yesterday. The Arizona senator was well ahead in all regions of the state, but did best in the New York City suburbs, where he had 62% support. In the city he had 59% support, while upstate he had just 47% support. The survey included 883 likely Republican voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.

Georgia:

Obama was still well ahead in Georgia in the second tracking poll, with 48% support to Clinton’s 31% support. African-Americans, who made up half the sample, preferred the Illinois senator, giving him 67% of their support to Clinton’s 18%. Clinton attracted 43% of white support, compared to Obama’s 30%. Obama was also ahead among women, getting 47% of their backing to Clinton’s 32%. The Georgia Dems survey included 864 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.

Missouri

McCain was ahead in Missouri with 35% support in this key Midwestern winner-take-all state, benefiting from a split in the conservative vote between Southerner Huckabee—who was is second place with 27%, and Romney, who gained two points and stands at 24%. Much of Huckabee’s support came from the conservative southwestern part of the state, where he got 41% support, compared to McCain’s 28% and Romney’s 19% support. McCain dominated in St. Louis, where he had 40% support to Huckabee’s 10% and Romney’s 25% support. This survey included 852 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.

Missouri

Obama leapfrogged over Clinton in Missouri, gaining four points while she dropped two points to end the tracking period with 47% support to her 42%. Clinton continued to lead among white voters with 48% of their support to Obama’s 40%, while Obama had a four-to-one margin over Clinton with African American voters, with 72% of their support to her 18% support. The survey included 851 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/-3/4 points.

California

Romney’s California lead over McCain grew by three points over the previous tracking poll, to 40% support in this important winner-take-all state, compared to McCain’s 32%, a two-point loss from the day before. Romney did well among conservative voters here, with 46% of their support, compared to McCain’s 29%. That group made up more than half the sample. The survey included 915 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.3 points.

California

Obama’s lead over Clinton in California grew by two points, with 46% saying they would support him, compared to 40% for Clinton. Obama had a four-point lead over Clinton among white voters, with 45% of their support to her 41% support. Black voters liked him four-to-one over Clinton (72% to 16%), while Hispanics preferred the former first lady, giving her 55% support to his 36%. The survey included 967 likely voters and carried a 3.2 point margin of error.

For a detailed methodological statement on this polling, please visit:
http://www. zogby. com/ methodology/ readmeth.dbm?ID=1272
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Still Central to Campaign; The Dark Side of McCain; Turkey Kills 10 Kurdish Guerrillas

Frank Davies of the Mercury News Service challenges the conventional wisdom that Iraq has faded as a campaign issue. He writes:

' But as the war nears two grim milestones - five years since the invasion and nearly 4,000 Americans killed - the question of what to do in Iraq is never far below the surface. In California, where polls show 42 percent of Republicans and 91 percent of Democrats oppose U.S. policy in Iraq, strong anti-war sentiment gives the issue staying power.

When both parties held debates this week in California, the candidates' differing positions on the war were aired much more prominently than they have been in primaries and caucuses elsewhere.

"From town halls to phone calls I get, it's the big thing I keep hearing about: What can we do about this war?" said Rep. Anna Eshoo, a Palo Alto Democrat. She was part of the unsuccessful effort last year by congressional Democrats to force President Bush to change his war policy. '

David Olive on the dark side of McCain-- contrasting his flipflops to his more principled stances against tax cuts for the rich, against torture, and against drilling in the arctic:

' But there is another McCain, one who is among the least-principled major American political figures – all the more notable for how central "standing on principal" is to McCain's self regard.

To win the conservative Republican votes so critical in the primaries and caucuses this year, McCain has flip-flopped on numerous of his most "principled" stands. Those unfair tax cuts? He now favours extending them. His compassion about illegal immigrants has given way to a pledge to build walls to keep the Mexicans out. McCain has gone from opposing the repeal of Roe vs. Wade to asserting his pro-life credentials. McCain's opposition to federal subsidies for corn-based ethanol, which consumes more energy to produce than it yields, gave way to a pro-ethanol stand as the caucuses in corn-belt Iowa approached. . .

McCain is no less delusional than the Bush administration in detecting progress in Mesopotamia. Iraq still has no functioning government, no army capable of defending the nation, no oil-sharing law, and no effort at ethnic reconciliation one year after the "surge" of 30,000 additional U.S. troops and five years after the U.S.-led invasion. '

The Turkish military killed 10 separatist Kurdish guerrillas in eastern Anatolia near the border with Iraq on Sunday. The Turkish authorities accuse Iraqi Kurdistan of sheltering the guerrillas, who have killed scores of Turkish soldiers in recent months. Turkey has repeatedly bombed villages in Iraq that it considers guerrilla hideouts, but Iraqi Kurds say it has killed and displaced innocent civilians.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that a Turkmen political grouping had a conference in Baghdad this weekend to complain about the predations of the two major Kurdish parties in Kirkuk. These Turkmen do not want oil-rich Kirkuk to be annexed to the Kurdistan regional authority. The Turkmen are generally supported in their demands by Turkey, to which they have close links of language and culture, and which opposes Kurdish annexation of Kirkuk. This is a shoe waiting to drop.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Salah al-Ubaidi, the head of the Sadr office in Najaf has gathered up the preferences of 10 Sadrist committees charged with considering whether the freeze on the activities of the Mahdi Army militia should be extended. He says that the majority wants the Mahdi Army returned to active duty, on the grounds that state security forces have taken unfair advantage of the freeze to arrest or purge members of the militia, who are thus at heightened risk because of the freeze. The state security services are dominted by the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), a political rival of the Sadr movement.

LAT says that a campaign of behind the scenes assassinations of former Baath Party officials continues to stalk ex-Baathists in Iraq. Some of them were just minor municipal officials who committed no particular or major crimes, but now are marked men.

The presidency council is asking for revisions of a debaathification law submitted by parliament, but will allow it to be implemented as is for the moment. The law, supposedly aimed at effecting national reconciliation, actually has punitive provisions toward ex-Baathists that will forcibly retire them or exclude them from current government service.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Falah Shanshal, the Sadrist MP who heads the committee that produced the new debaathification legislation, says that parliament is reluctant to amend the law it submitted, but might consider minor revisions that did not contradict the thrust of the legislation. The Sadrists appear to be using the opportunity to revise the laws on former Baath members to disadvantage Sunni Arabs in some ways, and they are resisting VP Tariq al-Hashimi's attempts to remove those parts of the legislation. The new law is not likely actually to lead to greater harmony or reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

'Baghdad

- Around 8 a.m. a private security company's guards shot and injured an Iraqi citizen as their convoy passed near Al Zawra Park in central Baghdad, Iraqi police said.

- Around 8:30 a.m. Lt. Col. Ahmed Ibraheem, the director of Iraqi national police affairs in the Ministry of Interior, was killed when a bomb attached to his car exploded and injured two as he was driving his car.

- Around 8:30 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted an U.S. military convoy in Al Bayaa, western Baghdad, Iraqi police said.

- Police found three bodies in Baghdad, one in Ur, one in Shaab, and one in Hurriyah.

Diyala

- A bomb exploded inside the office of Dr. Hussein Al Zubaidi, the head of the security committee for the Diyala provincial council, in Baquba. The blast injured him, two bodyguards and two U.S. soldiers according to Iraqi police. Iraqi police imposed a curfew in the city. U.S. military said no coalition soldiers were injured.

- Iraqi police said al Qaida gunmen attacked the headquarters of a local awakening council in Al Katun area, killing four guards.

Salahuddin

- Iraqi police said that seven civilians were killed early Sunday morning as the U.S. military bombed Al Milah town in eastern Samara. US military didn't respond to e-mail for confirmation.

Kirkuk

- Gunmen attacked a Patriotic Union of Kurdistan headquarters south of Kirkuk and injured one of the guards yesterday, Iraqi police said.

Mosul

- A parked car bomb targeted a U.S. military convoy in Mosul, Iraqi police said. U.S. military said two Iraqi civilians were wounded and no coalition soldiers were injured.

- Gunmen killed citizen Subhan Hammed as he was driving his car in Al Hamdaniyah town yesterday.

Basra

- Iraqi police said that the police force defused three IEDs and seven mines that were attached to an oil well about 110 kilometers north of Basra.

Al Anbar

- A roadside bomb targeted police officer Lt. Col. Issa Al Essawi as he was driving his car in central Fallujah yesterday. Al Essawi was injured in the attack.'

McClatchy reports on the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan and the spread of political Islam in Afghanistan and Pakistan. A recent Atlantic Council study concluded that NATO is not winning in Afghanistan.

But what is the mission in Afghanistan? If it is that Pushtuns should give up being conservative Muslims and stop opposing foreign troops being in their regions, I wouldn't hold my breath.

If you did not see it, look at Barney Rubin's blog entry on the new reports suggesting failure in Afghanistan, at our joint Global Affairs blog.

See also Farideh Farhi on the attempted closing of the feminist Zanan newspaper in Iran, also at IC: Global Affairs.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, new letters by Napoleon Bonaparte and by Gen. Berthier on the Syria campaign of spring, 1799.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Fights Three Wars in Iraq;

Tom Ricks of WaPo says that the US military sees itself as fighting 3 wars:

1. The war against Arab volunteers ("al-Qaeda")

2. The war against Sunni Arab Iraqi dissidents

3. The war against Shiite militias.

The officers he talks to feel good about the second war, which they feel has petered out as Sunni Iraqis have joined the Awakening Councils. They also think they have made progress against the foreign fighters, which they call "al-Qaeda." But they worry most of all about the third war, against Shiite special groups, which they allege deploy roadside bombs against US troops.

In my view, Washington always vastly overestimated the foreign infiltrators, who are a small group that cannot possibly be responsible for as much of the violence as Bush charges.

Likewise, they underestimate the activeness of the Iraqi Sunni Arabs. While the latter may not be fighting US troops as much in al-Anbar, they are still militant in Diyala, Salahuddin and Ninevah Provinces. And some of the operations blamed on "al-Qaeda" are actually those of local Sunni Arabs instead.

The US military seems to read all uses of explosively formed projectiles as Iranian and Shiite. I don't find that plausible and I see notices of US troops being killed by them in Sunni Arab neighborhoods.

As for the Shiite militias being the most dangerous of all, that would depend on what exactly you were planning to do to the Shiite population. It is certainly the case that the Sadrists could well take over Iraq in the 2009 elections, and that their Mahdi Army would then form the National Guard of Iraq, and that they are hostile to the US.

McClatchy reports political violence on Saturday:

' Baghdad

Police said that the final toll of the two explosions of Ghazil and new Baghdad markets reached 98 people killed and 125 others injured.

Five people (3 policemen and 2 civilians) were injured in an IED explosion that targeted a police patrol in Khadhraa neighborhood west Baghdad around 10:30 am.

Two civilians were killed and three others were injured in clashes between gunmen and the Iraqi security forces (police and army) in Kadhemiyah neighborhood north Baghdad around 5;00 pm.

Gunmen driving 13 cars (sedan cars) kidnapped three policemen who were in a check point near al Ferdous mosque in Ur neighborhood north Baghdad around 5:15 pm.

Police found five bodies in Baghdad today. Three bodies were found in Rusafa, the eastern side of Baghdad in the following neighborhoods (2 bodies in Sadr city and 1 body in Husseiniyah) the two other bodies were found in Amil neighborhood and Bayaa neighborhood in Karkh, the western side of Baghdad

Tikrit

Four members of Sahwa council (awakening council) were killed and nine others were injured in an IED explosion that targeted their patrol near Tal Mohammed village in the west bank of Shirqat town north of Tikrit city around 11:10 am.

A combined force (Iraqi police and the a force from Samara emergency brigade) raided al Jallam area east of Samara city south of Tikrit city today morning. The force killed four Arabic insurgents and the captured Safa’a Mohammed Abdullah al Khadawi, the assistant of Abo Mutasim, the prince of princes of Qaida.

The police of Sulaiman Bik area released two kidnapped people and arrested their kidnapper when they raided an area near Toz town east of Tikrit today morning.

Nineveh

two members of Sahwa [Awakening Council] were killed and six others were wounded when a suicide car bomb attacked a gathering for sahwa in the area between Makhmoor town and Qayara town south of Mosul city today afternoon. '

Reuters adds:

' SAMARRA - Six gunmen were killed and two policemen were wounded in clashes on Friday in central Samarra, 100 km north of Baghdad, police said.

HAWIJA - U.S. forces killed one gunman and arrested another after they had opened fire on a U.S. patrol near Hawija, 70 km southwest of Kirkuk, police said. Kirkuk is 250 km north of Baghdad.

TAL AFAR - Police killed three gunmen and arrested three others in Tal Afar, 420 km northwest of Baghdad, police said.

ISKANDARIYA - Two decomposed bodies with gunshot wounds were found Friday in Iskandariya, 40 km south of Baghdad, police said. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

91 Dead in 2 Baghdad Blasts

Two women set off separate suicide bombs in two markets in Baghdad on Friday, killing at least 91 persons and wounding a similar number. Contrary to what this AP squib implies, the bombings suggest neither that "al-Qaeda" is running out of men nor that it is desperate. Women were used because they would be less likely to be closely searched, in a society where gender segregation and female honor and chastity are important values. The story that the women had Downs syndrome seems unlikely to be true; you wouldn't trust a sensitive terror plot to someone without their full faculties. Rather, the bombings show that the Sunni Arab guerrillas seeking to destabilize Iraq have not been defeated and are still capable of making a big strike right under the noses of the surge troops. And that is how guerrilla war is-- large conventional forces find it difficult to curb it.

McClatchy reports from the scene and observes, "Friday's death toll also seemed to cement a recent steady increase in the monthly toll of Baghdad bombing deaths. In September, 164 people died from bombings, according to McClatchy statistics. That number reached a low of 76 in November, but rose to 87 in December and 100 in January. With 65 deaths on the first day of the month, February seems likely to witness another increase."

Reuters adds other political violence on Friday:

' TIKRIT - A U.S. soldier was killed by indirect fire in Tikrit, 175 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad on Thursday, the U.S. military said without giving further details. Another soldier was wounded in the attack.

* KUT - Gunmen killed two policemen and wounded four civilians when they stormed a bus terminal and opened fire in Kut, 170 km (100 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said.

SAMARRA - A sniper killed one Iraqi soldier while on patrol in central Samarra, 100 km (68 miles) north of Baghdad, an Iraqi army source said.

MOSUL - U.S. forces arrested seven gunmen during operations in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.'

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Cole in Salon: "Blowback from the GOP's Holy War'

My Salon column is out: Blowback from the GOP's holy war:
The 2008 Republican race has left a bitter legacy of sloganeering against Muslims. It may well haunt the party this November.

Excerpt:

'Giuliani complained that during their debates, Democratic rivals "never mentioned the word 'Islamic terrorist,' 'Islamic extremist,' 'Islamic fascist,' 'terrorist,' whatever combination of those words you want to use, [the] words never came up." He added, "I can't imagine who you insult if you say 'Islamic terrorist.' You don't insult anyone who is Islamic who isn't a terrorist."

But people are not "Islamic," they are Muslim. And one most certainly does insult Muslims by tying their religion to movements such as terrorism or fascism. Muslims perceive a double standard in this regard: Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols would never be called "Christian terrorists" even though they were in close contact with the Christian Identity Movement. No one would speak of Christofascism or Judeofascism as the Republican candidates speak of Islamofascism. Muslims point out that persons of Christian heritage invented fascism, not Muslims, and deny that Muslim movements have any link to the mass politics of the 1930s in Europe.

Giuliani's pledge to take the United States on an offensive against Islamic fascism, which he also said would be a long-term battle, failed to excite the imagination of voters. It may well have alarmed them in a way different from what Giuliani intended: If, by Giuliani's logic, the United States is only on the "defensive" now, with wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, what would being on the offensive look like? Would Giuliani have started four wars? Interestingly, Giuliani did especially poorly in Florida among retired and active-duty military personnel. '

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US Soldier Killed; British Base Rocketed; Bombings in Baghdad

People keep asking in puzzlement what Bush expected to get out of his Iraq misadventure. It is the oil, habibi, the oil.

Akhbar al-Khalij newspaper is charging that US oil interests offered each Iraqi parliamentarian $5 million to pass the oil and gas law (hat tip to Digby.

Steven R. Hurst of AP writes that Shiite militiamen in Basra sent 20 rockets on the British base out at the airport, wounding 3 UK servicemen. The British responded with artillery fire at the positions from which the rockets were launched. Some 10 Iraqis were killed or wounded in the exchange.

AP reports Baghdad violence, including the killing of another US soldier by a roadside bomb and the bombing that killed 5 in the Shiite sacred district of Kazimiya.

Hurst observes: "The two attacks — in areas considered relatively stable — were troubling reminders that recent improvements in Iraqi security were fragile and far from deeply rooted. The Basra battle also exposed potential security gaps around Iraq's second-largest city less than two months after a scaled-down British force handed over control to Iraqi police and military. Rival Shiite factions are locked in fierce struggles for dominance in Basra and the rest of the oil-rich south."

Explosions in Kazimiya are always very dangerous because the Shiite shrine to the 7th Imam is there, and we have seen how upset Shiites are when their holy shrines are blown up.

As for Basra, I assume that the Shiite militias attacked to influence British public opinion further in the direction of a quick withdrawal from the city.

McClatchy reports a string of bombings and attacks in Iraq on Thursday, and adds: "2 women, ages 50 and 55, cousins to the governor of Diyala, Raad al-Mulla were abducted by gunmen who had put up a false checkpoint between al-Abbara area and Baquba city last night. Their fate remains unknown."

I don't think security is very good there.

McClatchy reports on US soldiers' security challenge in Mosul. He adds:

' Terrorists aren't Mosul's only problem. The city's Sunni and Shiite Muslim Arabs detest each other, and the Arabs distrust the city's Kurdish, Christian and Turkmen minorities. Although 60 percent of Mosul's population of 1.8 million is Sunni, three-quarters of the provincial government is Kurdish, and the Arabs suspect the Kurds of wanting to take over the city.

"We live in chaos," said Sheik Fawwaz al Jarba, a former member of the Shiite alliance in Iraq's central government. He spoke from Baghdad because Sunni insurgents blew up his house in Mosul.'

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Iraq and Iran in the Democratic Debate

Here are the Iraq portions of the Barack-Hillary debate in Los Angeles Thursday night. Both candidates impressed me with their grasp of detail and the serious thought that they have given for how to get out of Iraq without leaving behind a catastrophe that will come around to bite us on the ass. Chuck Todd says he thought Barack won the debate on the strength of his Iraq comments, and that Hillary was at a disadvantage because she had to explain once again why she voted to authorize the war. She even put herself in a position of being called naive about Bush by Wolf Blitzer, the moderator, because she went on about how she hadn't expected Bush to misuse the authorization.

I didn't see others comment on Barack's dig at Hillary over "mission creep" toward Iran. This was a reference to her vote for the Kyl-Lieberman resolution encouraging Bush to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps a terrorist organization (even though they are now a regular military analogous to the US National Guards, and in the past terrorism has been defined as the action of a non-state actor). Clinton painted Obama as soft on Iran, he painted her as devoted to mission creep and confrontation with Iran. This might be another point on which he won; polling does not suggest the American public wants practical belligerent steps toward Iran.

It is worth noting that Clinton misstated the 1998 events. The US did not bomb Iraq because Saddam "kicked out" the UN weapons inspectors. The US decided to bomb Iraq for other reasons and therefore ordered the inspectors out of the country. The myth that Saddam "kicked out" the inspectors just won't die.

Here is what the candidates said:


OBAMA: And the last point I'll make is on Iraq. Senator Clinton brought this up. I was opposed to Iraq from the start. (Cheers, applause.) And that -- and I say that not just to look backwards but also to look forwards, because I think what the next president has to show is the kind of judgment that will ensure that we are using our military power wisely.

It is true that I want to elevate diplomacy, so that it is part of our arsenal to serve the American people's interests and to keep us safe.

And I have disagreed with Senator Clinton on, for example, meeting with Iran. I think -- and the National Intelligence Estimate, the last report suggested that if we are meeting with them, talking to them, and offering them both carrots and sticks, they are more likely to change their behavior, and we can do so in a way that does not ultimately cost billions of dollars, thousands of lives, and hurt our reputation around the world. (Applause.) . . .

MR. MCMANUS: A question about the issue of Iraq. Senator Clinton, you've both called for a gradual withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq, but Senator Obama says he wants all combat troops out within 16 months of his Inauguration, and you haven't offered a specific end date. Why shouldn't voters worry that your position could turn into an open-ended commitment?

SEN. CLINTON: Well, because, Doyle, I have been very clear in saying that I will begin to withdraw troops in 60 days. I believe that it will take me one to two brigades a month, depending upon how many troops we have there, and that nearly all of them should be out within a year.

It is imperative, though, that we actually plan and execute this right. And you may remember last spring I got into quite a back-and- forth with the Pentagon because I was concerned they were not planning for withdrawal, because that was contrary to their strategy or their stated position. And I began to press them to let us know, and they were very resistant and gave only cursory information to us.

So I've said that I will ask the Joint Chiefs and the secretary of Defense and my security advisers the very first day I'm president to begin to draw up such a plan so that we can withdraw.

But I just want to be very clear with people that it's not only bringing our young men and women and our equipment out -- which is dangerous; they've got to go down those same roads where they have been subjected to bombing and so much loss of life and injury. We have to think about what we're going to do with the more than 100,000 American civilians who are there, working for the embassy, working for businesses, working for charities.

And I also believe we've got to figure out what to do with the Iraqis who sided with us. You know, a lot of the drivers and translators saved so many of our young men and women's lives, and I don't think we can walk out on them without having some plan as to how to take care of those who are targeted.

At the same time, we've got to tell the Iraqi government there is no -- there is no more time. They're out of time. They've got to make the tough decisions they have avoided making. They've got to take responsibility for their own country. (Applause.)

And, you know, I think both Barack and I have tried in these debates, and sometimes been pushed by some of our opponents, to be as responsible as we can be, because we know that this president, based on what he said in the State of the Union, intends to leave at least 130,000, if not more, troops in Iraq as he exits. It's the most irresponsible abdication of what should be a presidential commitment to end what he started.

So we will inherit it. And therefore, I will do everything I can to get as many of our troops out as quickly as possible, taking into account all of these contingencies that we're going to have to contend with once we're in charge and once we can get into the Pentagon to figure out what's really there and what's going on.

MR. BLITZER: But you can't make a commitment, though, that 16 months after your inauguration would be enough time?

SEN. CLINTON: I certainly -- I certainly hope it will be, and I said I hope to have nearly all of them out within a year.

MR. BLITZER: Go ahead.

SEN. OBAMA: Well, you know, I -- I think it is important for us to be as careful getting out as we were careless getting in. And -- (applause) -- so I have said very clearly I will end this war. We will not have a permanent occupation and we will not have permanent bases in Iraq. (Applause.) When John McCain suggests that we might be there a hundred years, that I think indicates a profound lack of understanding that we've got a whole host of global threats out there -- including Iraq, but we've got a -- a big problem right now in Afghanistan. Pakistan is a great concern. We are neglecting potentially our foreign policy with respect to Latin America. China is strengthening. And if we neglect our economy by spending $200 billion every year in this war that has not made us more safe -- (applause) -- that is undermining our long-term security.

But I do think it is important for us to set a date. And the reason I think it is important is because if we are going to send a signal to the Iraqis that we are serious, and prompt the Shi'a, the Sunni and the Kurds to actually come together and negotiate, they have to have clarity about how serious we are. It can't be muddy. It can't be fuzzy. They've got to know that we are serious about this process.

And I also think we've got to be very clear about what our mission is, and there may be a difference here between Senator Clinton and myself in terms of the force structures that we would leave behind. Both of us have said we would make sure that our embassies and our civilians are protected. Both of us have said that we've got to care for Iraqi civilians, including the 4 million who have been displaced already. We already have a humanitarian crisis and we have not taken those responsibilities seriously. We both have said that we need to have a strike force that can take out potential terrorist bases that get set up in Iraq.

But the one thing that I think is very important is that we not get mission creep and we not start suggesting that we should have troops in Iraq to blunt Iranian influence.

If we were concerned about Iranian influence, we should not have had this government installed in the first place. (Applause.) We shouldn't have invaded in the first place. It was part of the reason that I think it was such a profound strategic error for us to go into this war in the first place -- (applause) -- and that's one of the reasons why I think I will be -- just to -- to -- just to finish up this point, I think I will be the Democrat who will be most effective in going up against a John McCain -- or any other Republican, because they all want basically a continuation of George Bush's policies -- because I will offer a clear contrast as somebody who never supported this war, thought it was a bad idea. I don't want to just end the war, but I want to end the mind-set that got us into war in the first place. That's the kind of leadership I intend to provide as president of the United States. (Cheers, applause.)

SEN. CLINTON: And -- and of course, you know --

MR. BLITZER: Senator -- Senator Clinton, that's a clear swipe at you. (Laughter.)

SEN. CLINTON: Really? (Laughter.)

SEN. OBAMA: I wouldn't call it a "swipe." I think --

SEN. CLINTON: We're having -- we're having such a good time.

SEN. OBAMA: We are having a -- we're having --

SEN. CLINTON: We are, we are. We're having a wonderful time.

SEN. OBAMA: Yeah, absolutely. (Laughter, applause.)

SEN. CLINTON: And I am so -- I am so proud to have the support of leaders like Congresswoman Maxine Waters, who's here with us tonight -- (cheers, applause) -- who was one of the -- who was one of the original conveners of the Out of Iraq Caucus because it is imperative that as we move forward with what will be a very difficult process -- there are no good options here.

We have to untangle ourselves and navigate through some very treacherous terrain.

And as we do so, it is absolutely clear to me that we have to send several messages at once. Yes, we are withdrawing, and I personally believe that is the best message to send to the Iraqis. That they need to know that they have to get serious, because so far, they have been under the illusion that the Bush administration and the Republicans, who have more of the same, will be there indefinitely.

And I also think it's important to send that message to the region, because I think that Iran, Syria, the other countries in the neighborhood are going to find themselves in a very difficult position as we withdraw. You know, be careful what you wish for. They will be dragged into what is sectarian divisiveness with many different factions among the three main groups. Therefore, we need to start diplomatic efforts immediately getting the Iranians and Syrians and others to the table. It's in their interest, it's in our interest, and it certainly is in the Iraqis' interest.

SEN. OBAMA: Right.

SEN. CLINTON: The other point that I want to underscore, though, is that -- I asked Barack a few debates ago -- we've had so many of them -- to join with me on legislation, which he has agreed to do, that's very important, to prevent President Bush from committing our country to an ongoing presence in Iraq. (Applause.)

That is something he is trying to push, and we are pushing legislation to prevent him from doing that. He has taken the view that I find absolutely indefensible: that he doesn't have to bring any such agreement about permanent bases, about ongoing occupation, and if Senator McCain is the nominee, 100 years as stretching forward, he doesn't have to bring that to the United States Congress; he only has to get the approval of the Iraqi parliament.

Well, we are saying absolutely no. And we're going to do everything we can to prevent him from binding any of us going into the future in a way that will undermine America's interests. (Applause.) So that's a critical --

MR. BLITZER: We have a follow-up question on this subject from Jeanne Cummings. Go ahead, Jeanne.

MS. CUMMINGS: Senator Clinton, this one is for you. Judgment has been an issue that's been raised as part of this debate about Iraq. It's been raised by Senator Obama on a number of occasions.

And as this debate has gone on, more than half of the Politico readers have voted for this question, and it is, in effect, a judgment question. It comes from Howard Schumann (sp) from Pittsburgh, Maine.

And he asks: Before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, you could have voted for the Levin amendment, which required President Bush to report to Congress about the U.N. inspection before taking military action. Why did you vote against that amendment?

SEN. CLINTON: Well, Howard, that's an important question, and the reason is because although I believe strongly that we needed to put inspectors in -- that was the underlying reason why I at least voted to give President Bush the authority -- put those inspectors in, let them do their work, figure out what is there and what isn't there.

And I have the greatest respect for my friend and colleague, Senator Levin. He's my chairman on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The way that amendment was drafted suggested that the United States would subordinate whatever our judgment might be going forward to the United Nations Security Council. I don't think that was a good precedent. Therefore I voted against it. I did vote with Senator Byrd to limit the authority that was being given to President Bush to one year, and that also was not approved.

You know, I've said many times, if I had known then what I know now, I never would have given President Bush the authority. It was a sincere vote, based on my assessment at the time and what I believed he would do with the authority he was given. He abused that authority. He misused that authority. I warned, at the time, it was not authority for a pre-emptive war. Nevertheless he went ahead and waged one, which has led to the position we find ourselves in today.

But I think now we have to look at how we go forward. There will be a great debate between us and the Republicans, because the Republicans are still committed to George Bush's policy. And some are more committed than others, with Senator McCain's recent comments. He's now accusing me of surrendering, because I believe we should withdraw starting within 60 days of my becoming president.

Well, that is a debate I welcome because I think the Democrats have a much better grasp of the reality of the situation that we are confronting. And we have to continue to press that case. It will be important, however, that our nominee be able to present both a reasoned argument against continuing our presence in Iraq, and the necessary credentials and gravitas for commander in chief. That has to cross that threshold in the mind of every American voter. The Republicans will try to put either one of us into the same box -- that if we oppose this president's Iraq policy, somehow we cannot fully represent the interests of the United States, be commander in chief. I reject that out of hand, and I actually welcome that debate with whomever they nominate. (Applause.)

MR. BLITZER: Senator -- look, I want you to respond, Senator, but also in the context of what we've heard from General David Petraeus, that there has been some progress made lately, the number of U.S. casualties has gone down, there has been some stability in parts of Iraq where there was turmoil before, and that any quick -- overly quick -- withdrawal could undermine all of that, and all of that progress would be for naught. What do you say when you'll hear that argument?

SEN. OBAMA: I welcome the progress. This notion that Democrats don't want to see progress in Iraq is ridiculous. I have to hug mothers in rope lines during town hall meetings as they weep over their fallen sons and daughters.

I want to get our troops home safely, and I want us as a country to have this mission completed honorably. But the notion that somehow we have succeeded as a consequence of the recent reductions in violence means that we have set the bar so low it's buried in the sand at this point. (Cheers, applause.)

We -- and I said this before -- we went from intolerable levels of violence and a dysfunctional government to spikes and horrific levels of violence and a dysfunctional government, and now two years later we're back to intolerable levels of violence and a dysfunctional government. And in the meantime, we have spent billions of dollars, lost thousands of lives; thousands more have been maimed and injured as a consequence and are going to have difficulty putting their lives back together again.

So, understand that this has undermined our security. In the meantime, Afghanistan has slid into more chaos than existed before we went into Iraq.

I am happy to have that argument. I also think it is going to be important, though, for the Democrats -- you know, Senator Clinton mentioned the issue of gravitas and judgment. I think it is much easier for us to have the argument when we have a nominee who says, "I always thought this was a bad idea, this was a bad strategy."

(Applause.) It was not just a problem of execution -- it was not just a problem of execution.

I mean, they screwed up the execution of it in all sorts of ways. And I think even Senator McCain has acknowledged that.

The question is, can we make an argument that this was a conceptually flawed mission from the start, and that we need better judgment when we decide to send our young men and women into war, that we are making absolutely certain that it is because there is a imminent threat, that American interests are going to be protected, that we have a plan to succeed and to exit, that we are going to train our troops properly and equip them properly and put them on proper rotations and treat them properly when they come home?

And that is an argument that I think we are going to have a easier time making if they can't turn around and say, but hold on a second; you supported this. And that's part of the reason why I think that I would be the strongest nominee on this argument of national security. (Cheers, applause.)

MR. BLITZER: All right. I'm going to let Senator Clinton respond.

Senator Clinton, you always say if you knew then what you know now, you wouldn't have voted like that. But why can't you just say right now that that vote was a mistake?

SEN. CLINTON: Well, Wolf, I think that if you look at what was going on at the time, and certainly I did an enormous amount of investigation and due diligence to try to determine what, if any, threat could flow from the history of Saddam Hussein being both an owner of and a seeker of weapons of mass destruction.

The idea of putting inspectors back in, that -- that was a credible idea. I believe in coercive diplomacy. I think that you try to figure out how to move bad actors in a direction that you'd prefer in order to avoid more dire consequences. And what -- if you took it on the face of it and if you took it on the basis of what we hope would happen with the inspectors going in, that in and of itself was a policy that we've used before. We have used the threat of force to try to make somebody try to change their behavior.

I think what no one could have fully appreciated is how obsessed this president was with this particular mission. And unfortunately, I and others who warned at the time, who said let the inspectors finish their work, you know, do not wage a preemptive war, use diplomacy, were just talking to a brick wall.

But you know, it's clear that if I had been president, we would never have diverted our attention from Afghanistan. When I went to Afghanistan the first time and was met by a young soldier from New York in the 10th Mountain Division who told me that I was being welcomed to the forgotten front lines in the war against terror, that just -- you know, just struck me so forcefully -- that we have so many -- (off mike) -- and it will take everyone.

It'll take a tremendous amount of -- of effort.

But the one thing I am convinced of is that if we go into our campaign against the Republicans with the idea that we are as strong as they are and we are better than they are on national security, that we can put together a -- an effective strategy to go after the terrorists -- because that is real, that is something that we cannot ignore, at our peril -- then we will be able to join the issues of the future.

And I think that's what Americans are focused on. What are we going to do going forward? Because day after day, what I spend my time working on is trying to help pick up the pieces for families and for injured soldiers, you know, trying to make sure that they get the help that they need, trying to give the resources that are required.

We had to fight to get body armor. You know, George Bush sent people to war without body armor.

MR. BLITZER: So what I --

SEN. CLINTON: So we need a president who will be sensitive to the implications of the use of force and understand that force should be a last resort, not a first resort.

MR. BLITZER: So what I hear you saying -- and correct me if I'm wrong -- is that you were naive in trusting President Bush?

SEN. CLINTON: No, that's not what you hear me say. (Cheers, applause.) Good try, Wolf. Good try. (Booing, shouting.)

You know --

MR. BLITZER: Was she naive, Senator Obama?

SEN. CLINTON: Well, let me -- you asked the question to me. I -- you know, I deserve to answer.

MR. BLITZER: I thought you -- I thought you weren't going to --

SEN. CLINTON: No, you know, I -- I think that -- you know, that -- that is a good try, Wolf. (Laughter.)

The -- you know, the -- the point is that I certainly respect Senator Obama making his speech in 2002 against the war. And then, when he came to the Senate, we've had the same policy because we were both confronting the same reality of trying to deal with the consequences of George Bush's action.

I believe that it is abundantly clear that the case that was outlined on behalf of going to the resolution -- not going to war, but going to the resolution -- was a credible case. I was told personally by the White House that they would use the resolution to put the inspectors in. I worked with Senator Levin to make sure we gave them all the intelligence so that we would know what's there.

Some people now think that this was a very clear, open-and-shut case. We bombed them for days in 1998 because Saddam Hussein threw out inspectors. We had evidence that they had a lot of bad stuff for a very long time, which we discovered after the first Gulf War.

Knowing that he was a megalomaniac, knowing he would not want to compete for attention with Osama bin Laden, there were legitimate concerns about what he might do.

So I think I made a reasoned judgment.

Unfortunately the person who actually got to execute the policy did not. (Applause.)

MR. BLITZER: Senator.

SEN. OBAMA: I don't want to belabor this because I know we're running out of time, and I'm sure you guys want to move on to some other stuff. But I do have to just say this.

The legislation, the authorization, had the title An Authorization to Use Military Force, U.S. Military Force, in Iraq. I think everybody, the day after that vote was taken, understood, this was a vote potentially to go to war. (Applause.) I think people were very clear about that, if you look at the headlines.

The reason that this is important again is that Senator Clinton, I think, fairly has claimed that she's got the experience on day one. And part of the argument that I'm making in this campaign is that it is important to be right on day one -- (cheers, applause) -- and that the judgment that I've presented, on this issue and some other issues, is relevant to how we're going to make decisions in the future.

You know, it's not a function just of looking backwards. It's a function of looking forwards, and how are we going to be able to make a series of decisions in a very dangerous world? I mean, the terrorist threat is real. And precisely because it's real, and we've got finite resources, we don't have the capacity to just send our troops in anywhere we decide without good intelligence, without a clear rationale. That's the kind of leadership that I think we need from the next President of the United States. (Applause.)

That's what I intend to provide. . .

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