Comments on: How the Iranian Regime Checkmated the Green Dissidents on a Crucial Day http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/how-iranian-regime-checkmated-green.html Thoughts on the Middle East, History and Religion Tue, 14 Feb 2012 00:17:06 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: foruhar http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/how-iranian-regime-checkmated-green.html#comment-2090 foruhar Sat, 13 Feb 2010 17:10:00 +0000 http://www.juancole.com/?p=4974#comment-2090 The green movement definitely needs new avenues and directions, but I'm a bit skeptical about the prospects of forming a party. I don't think forming a party buys you any footing with the Government of Iran.<br />The fate of Mosharekat, the popular party that supported Khatami's presidency and the 6th reformist Parliament is before us. I think almost all of their core members are facing prison sentences right now. Etemad Melli, Karroubi's party is treated no different, with their paper shut down and their offices closed.<br />They don't really care to save face with something as "abstract" [in their view] as parties. The green movement definitely needs new avenues and directions, but I'm a bit skeptical about the prospects of forming a party. I don't think forming a party buys you any footing with the Government of Iran.
The fate of Mosharekat, the popular party that supported Khatami's presidency and the 6th reformist Parliament is before us. I think almost all of their core members are facing prison sentences right now. Etemad Melli, Karroubi's party is treated no different, with their paper shut down and their offices closed.
They don't really care to save face with something as "abstract" [in their view] as parties.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/how-iranian-regime-checkmated-green.html#comment-2087 Anonymous Sat, 13 Feb 2010 11:02:43 +0000 http://www.juancole.com/?p=4974#comment-2087 There's some false satellite image interpretation going on here by the various anons. above. At least tendentious.<br /><br />At the time the image was taken, it is true there are not many in Azadeh square. But there are masses in the streets around, presumably on their way there. At least, many, many, more than the number of Green supporters cited.<br /><br />There may be a problem in the time of the image (calculation of local time?), which theoretically should have been only a few minutes before the speech started. There's some false satellite image interpretation going on here by the various anons. above. At least tendentious.

At the time the image was taken, it is true there are not many in Azadeh square. But there are masses in the streets around, presumably on their way there. At least, many, many, more than the number of Green supporters cited.

There may be a problem in the time of the image (calculation of local time?), which theoretically should have been only a few minutes before the speech started.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/how-iranian-regime-checkmated-green.html#comment-2085 Anonymous Sat, 13 Feb 2010 02:26:49 +0000 http://www.juancole.com/?p=4974#comment-2085 azadi square is 50,000 square meter (see azadi tower in wiki). that area is equal to 538,196 square feet. if each person fits into one square foot and if you subtract the area of the actual azadi tower and the area for the reporters and "khavas", then at most half million people can fit into the square. fair indicated that there is google pictures of the demonstrations. i haven't seen it myself (i searched). if he could tell us where to find the picture, then we can see if the crowd actually filled the square and if it spilled into the adjoining avenues that intersect the square. <br /><br /><br />The google link is at <br /><br /> <br /><br />http://google-latlong.blogspot.com/2010/02/view-in... <br /><br />It shows a sparse Azadi square at 10:47 am local time. More details and analysis links were kindly provided by Shifteh Ansari in the thread <br /><br />http://www.iranian.com/main/2010/feb/where-are-iri... <br /><br />which I am reposting below. Given these pictures and your data, it is very hard to imagine that square having more than 100k people in it. After all this preparation for months. It is very telling. <br /><br />However, Azadi street that feeds into Azadi square looked full of people, and it was barricaded off. In fact, this year, for the first time ever, there were two layers of barricades separating the crowds from AN. So it is not even clear what the makeup of the crowd behind the barricade was. Please visit the above thread, it has a very telling video of inside Azadi square, where people are observed not even paying attention to AN's speech, and even one IRI flag with the IR emblem cut out. In the heart of the "supporters". <br /><br /> <br /><br />-Fair <br /><br /> <br /><br />Repost of Shifteh Ansari's links: <br /><br />1. You can see parts of the Google image of Tehran at 10:47 a.m. on February 11, 2010 (22 Bahman) here: <br /><br />http://arteshesabz.blogspot.com/2010/02/22_12.html <br /><br />and here: http://friendfeed.com/vahid9/0e21cf75 <br /><br />2. Someone has videotaped the Google Earth image. It shows the<br />hundreds of buses which brought the so called "pro-government"<br />demonstrators to Azadi Square on 22 Bahman. You can watch it here: <br /><br />http://culturallogic.blogspot.com/2010/02/blog-pos... <br /><br />3. You can see Google's image for yourself here: <br /><br />http://google-latlong.blogspot.com/2010/02/view-in... <br /><br />4. This is Rah-e Sabz's crowd analysis of the image inside Azadi Square: <br /><br />http://www.rahesabz.info/picstories/tehran_iran_02... azadi square is 50,000 square meter (see azadi tower in wiki). that area is equal to 538,196 square feet. if each person fits into one square foot and if you subtract the area of the actual azadi tower and the area for the reporters and "khavas", then at most half million people can fit into the square. fair indicated that there is google pictures of the demonstrations. i haven't seen it myself (i searched). if he could tell us where to find the picture, then we can see if the crowd actually filled the square and if it spilled into the adjoining avenues that intersect the square.

The google link is at

http://google-latlong.blogspot.com/2010/02/view-in…

It shows a sparse Azadi square at 10:47 am local time. More details and analysis links were kindly provided by Shifteh Ansari in the thread

http://www.iranian.com/main/2010/feb/where-are-iri…

which I am reposting below. Given these pictures and your data, it is very hard to imagine that square having more than 100k people in it. After all this preparation for months. It is very telling.

However, Azadi street that feeds into Azadi square looked full of people, and it was barricaded off. In fact, this year, for the first time ever, there were two layers of barricades separating the crowds from AN. So it is not even clear what the makeup of the crowd behind the barricade was. Please visit the above thread, it has a very telling video of inside Azadi square, where people are observed not even paying attention to AN's speech, and even one IRI flag with the IR emblem cut out. In the heart of the "supporters".

-Fair

Repost of Shifteh Ansari's links:

1. You can see parts of the Google image of Tehran at 10:47 a.m. on February 11, 2010 (22 Bahman) here:

http://arteshesabz.blogspot.com/2010/02/22_12.html

and here: link to friendfeed.com

2. Someone has videotaped the Google Earth image. It shows the
hundreds of buses which brought the so called "pro-government"
demonstrators to Azadi Square on 22 Bahman. You can watch it here:

http://culturallogic.blogspot.com/2010/02/blog-pos…

3. You can see Google's image for yourself here:

http://google-latlong.blogspot.com/2010/02/view-in…

4. This is Rah-e Sabz's crowd analysis of the image inside Azadi Square:

http://www.rahesabz.info/picstories/tehran_iran_02…

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/how-iranian-regime-checkmated-green.html#comment-2081 Anonymous Fri, 12 Feb 2010 19:56:46 +0000 http://www.juancole.com/?p=4974#comment-2081 Excellent round up of yesterday events:<br /><br />""It was supposed to be the biggest day in the Islamic Republic calendar, yet all Ahmadinejad's junta could do was to confine its supporters in one area. The state TV kept repeating two close shot film footage of the crowd in Azadi Square with the sound muted and one still image which was clearly photoshoped. No aerial shows were broadcast to show the true extent of the crowds. Despite all the intimidations and restrictions on information, protests erupted across the country. Protests that just didn't seem to go away. Every time the crowds were dispersed, they came back again and again. Sadegieh Sq. which was one of the main hotspots today kept changing hands repeatedly between the people and the security forces. Several other districts like Aryashahr and the Ferdows Boulevard were reported to be under the control of the people.<br /><br />Perhaps the most ironic news was that on the 31st anniversary of the victory of the Islamic revolution, the grand daughter of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Zahra Eshraghi and her husband were seen as the enemies of the state and arrested. How tighter and smaller the circle of the Islamic Republic elite is getting--Potkin<br /><br />See the list of footage from today <br />http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=90F63A67203CC49F Excellent round up of yesterday events:

""It was supposed to be the biggest day in the Islamic Republic calendar, yet all Ahmadinejad's junta could do was to confine its supporters in one area. The state TV kept repeating two close shot film footage of the crowd in Azadi Square with the sound muted and one still image which was clearly photoshoped. No aerial shows were broadcast to show the true extent of the crowds. Despite all the intimidations and restrictions on information, protests erupted across the country. Protests that just didn't seem to go away. Every time the crowds were dispersed, they came back again and again. Sadegieh Sq. which was one of the main hotspots today kept changing hands repeatedly between the people and the security forces. Several other districts like Aryashahr and the Ferdows Boulevard were reported to be under the control of the people.

Perhaps the most ironic news was that on the 31st anniversary of the victory of the Islamic revolution, the grand daughter of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Zahra Eshraghi and her husband were seen as the enemies of the state and arrested. How tighter and smaller the circle of the Islamic Republic elite is getting–Potkin

See the list of footage from today
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=90F63A67203CC49F

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/how-iranian-regime-checkmated-green.html#comment-2079 Anonymous Fri, 12 Feb 2010 19:10:37 +0000 http://www.juancole.com/?p=4974#comment-2079 IRI apologists are tickled pink knowing that after mass arrests, public threats on TV, executions, threatning texts, after putting hundreds of thousands of heavily armed thugs on the streets and after closing off the entire capital, its pathetic regime could finally put on a dog and pony show in peace so that its o Boston residing, Kool-Aid drinking out of touch Kamikaze supporters can gloat for a while. <br /><br />But we should think about all this as charity. After all, this will be a morale boost to Jahelo and its friends and will alleviate the need for them to visit their therapists for a while. :-)) IRI apologists are tickled pink knowing that after mass arrests, public threats on TV, executions, threatning texts, after putting hundreds of thousands of heavily armed thugs on the streets and after closing off the entire capital, its pathetic regime could finally put on a dog and pony show in peace so that its o Boston residing, Kool-Aid drinking out of touch Kamikaze supporters can gloat for a while.

But we should think about all this as charity. After all, this will be a morale boost to Jahelo and its friends and will alleviate the need for them to visit their therapists for a while. :-))

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/how-iranian-regime-checkmated-green.html#comment-2078 Anonymous Fri, 12 Feb 2010 19:05:40 +0000 http://www.juancole.com/?p=4974#comment-2078 Outside the Iranian Embassy in London Last Night <br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjgTGrEjACQ&feature=player_embedded<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JPFGqyBO2A&feature=player_embedded Outside the Iranian Embassy in London Last Night

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjgTGrEjACQ&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JPFGqyBO2A&feature=player_embedded

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/how-iranian-regime-checkmated-green.html#comment-2076 Anonymous Fri, 12 Feb 2010 19:03:42 +0000 http://www.juancole.com/?p=4974#comment-2076 PressTV achor:<br /><br />The Islamic Republic’s attempted publicity stunt at UCL last night was a miserable failure. The following video really says it all as dozens of freedom activists poured into the lecture theatre, causing Yvonne Ridley the Ahmadinejad supporter to run off with her bodyguard after 10 minutes, and the meeting was abandoned!<br /><br />http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5aumgLlZ7iE/S3U9uNal0mI/AAAAAAAAA_0/bkebGNEQEPk/s1600-h/Ridley+with+Bodyguard.jpg<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcSdr6A1JDo&feature=player_embedded PressTV achor:

The Islamic Republic’s attempted publicity stunt at UCL last night was a miserable failure. The following video really says it all as dozens of freedom activists poured into the lecture theatre, causing Yvonne Ridley the Ahmadinejad supporter to run off with her bodyguard after 10 minutes, and the meeting was abandoned!

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5aumgLlZ7iE/S3U9uNal0mI/AAAAAAAAA_0/bkebGNEQEPk/s1600-h/Ridley+with+Bodyguard.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcSdr6A1JDo&feature=player_embedded

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/how-iranian-regime-checkmated-green.html#comment-2075 Anonymous Fri, 12 Feb 2010 19:01:38 +0000 http://www.juancole.com/?p=4974#comment-2075 My relatives tell me the pro-regime rallies were total duds. The attendees had low energy and seemed worn out. The greens on the other hand were inspired despite the fear and brutality My relatives tell me the pro-regime rallies were total duds. The attendees had low energy and seemed worn out. The greens on the other hand were inspired despite the fear and brutality

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