The conclusion I draw from this is that it's most likely that the Green movement has the sympathies of a large minority of Iranians and that a decreasing number of sympathetic Iranians are vocal supporters. I wish that weren't the case, but I also wish that suggesting that possibility didn't qualify you as a regime apologist (cf the Leveretts).

And in any event, who benefits from any fall in the regime — Mister Mousavi, who was prime minister during the worst of the executions, terrorist supporting and excess of the early years of the Revolution.

I think the less the west does about Iran the better — let them sort their own problems out but just remind them that any use of nuclear weapoins by Iran or a terrorist group supported by Iran will be followed by massively disproportionate retaliation.

But the repeated demosntrations do not work. The crowds must stand their ground for days, and surround the seat of government. This is how the Iranian regime will fall eventually.

We saw how useless the anti Iraq war demos were despite their giant numbers and global organization.

The Iranians who were not allowed to vent their anger will simmer and work underground feverishly to do as much damage as possible and recruit as many people as possible to the cause.

The internet and other means of mass communications are far more effective than the quaint and obsolete demos. And if the western racist amd Muslim-haters miss the bloody street battles, then so what.

But, let's just say the 24 million votes is correct. A system that receives 63% of the vote should not need to saturate Tehran with paramilitary basij and riot stormtrooper just to prevent peaceful expression of opposition from the Greens.

The fact is, the hardliners are terrified. They know that they are not wanted, and do not know what to do. They recall the Shah's experience of Fall of 1978, and believe that if they retreat just a bit, an avalanch will start. On the other hand, they also know that they cannot win a war of attrition. The military side always loses such a war.

So, it is in this sense that I consider today's events a defeat for the hardliners. After 8 months, thousands of people arrested and jailed, tens of them killed, two assassinations, many raped and sodomized, etc., the Greens are still standing. That means they are not going to disappear.

Again, this is a Marathon and a war of attrition. With patience, hard work, correct analyses, and realistic goals the Greens will prevail.

As for whether Sazegara and the likes lost, I agree with you. These people were opposed to voting last June, but now want to ride the Green waves to power. And they are not alone. We have many of the "Latter Day Greens!"

Mammad

On the 31st anniversary of the Iranian revolution, the regime drowns out opposition protests

http://www.slate.com/id/2244429/

The opposition's success yesterday as always was seen in the Regimes Complete desperation.