Rule of Law – Maliki – 92 Seats

National Movement – Allawi/Hashimi 89 Seats

Iraq National Alliance – Hakim/Sadr
70 seats

Kurdistan Alliance – Talabani/Barzani 41 seats

Change (mainly Kurdish) – 9 Seats

Iraqi Accordance – (mainly Sunni) 6 Seats

Iraq Unity Coalition – 4 seats from mostly Sunni areas.

Islamic Union of Kurdistan – 4 seats

Kurdistan Islamic Group – 2 seats

Religious Minorities – 8 seats
—————————–
Total Seats: 325

There is a small chance that Allawi will overtake Maliki
as the overseas votes are counted.

Should Maliki keep his lead he will have to (1) form a government with his arch rival Allawi. or (2) form a largely Shia supported government with Sadr. or (3) try to break apart the other coalitions and form a government with the Kurds, small parties, and defectors.

Glad to hear that since June of last year there are no longer any combat forces in Iraqi cities (including Baghdad) as was required by article 24 section 2 of the US-IRAQ SOFA.

"All United States combat forces shall withdraw from Iraqi cities, villages, and localities no later than the time at which Iraqi Security Forces assume full responsibility for security in an Iraqi province, provided that such withdrawal is completed no later than June 30, 2009."

We're on schedule, sure we are, by re-designating what "cities, villages, and localities" are, and re-branding "combat troops" as "Advisory Training Brigades" or "Advisory Assistance Brigades".

Netanyahu Offers Apology, but No Shift in Policy
By ISABEL KERSHNER

JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel told his cabinet on Sunday that the ill-timed announcement of new housing plans for a Jewish neighborhood in East Jerusalem during a visit by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. last week had been “regrettable” and “hurtful.”

Mr. Netanyahu also said that the government had set up a committee to “examine the chain of events and to ensure procedures” to prevent such an episode from happening again.

But he did not indicate that the building project would be canceled — a move that might mollify the Obama administration and ease the start of indirect, American-mediated peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. In fact, the prime minister did not refer explicitly at all to the contentious issue of building in East Jerusalem….

This is quite critical. Most of the Iraqi National Alliance votes are actually for the Sadrists, who also have a long running fued with the Hakim family. I would rate the chance of a Sadrist withdrawl from the INA at over 80%. The weight of the rest of the INA is too small and there is no love lost between them and Maliki anyway.

The Kurds are now in fourth place, (Maliki + Kurds would muster maybe135 seats well short of the 167 seat threshold. They have a huge list of demands in exchange for a deal, and Maliki has already said that a deal with them is unlikely.

An Allowi/Maliki coalition can produce a majority, but the fight over the spoils will not be settled easily, and can also result in walkouts by disgruntled members from both.

A government of national unity has already been derided by Maliki and most of the Arab politicians. It has already failed to deliver as every minister follows the oreders of his or her party, not the PM.

The individuals winning the seats are largely different from the 2006 parliament too. Fewer are from the London and Tehran mobs that the US tanks brought in, and there are far more nationalists.

The new government will therefore be very different indeed.