Poll: Majority of Republicans Expect War with Iran in 2012 (Infographic)

The Poll Position has done a scientific poll of the American public on how likely they feel war is with Iran in 2012. They were split, but what is really interesting is the partisan divide.

A majority (57%) of Republicans believe that the US will attack Iran this year, whereas only a quarter say no.

In contrast, only 22% of Democrats thought an American-Iran war likely, with a majority (54%) saying it is unlikely.

IranWar Poll

Percentage Likelihood of US-Iran War in 2012 by Party

These findings raise the question of whether the Republicans are engaged in the polling version of Freud’s “wish fulfillment” in dreams– that is to say, you have to ask if they really want a war, and so believe it is likely.

Another disturbing finding is that among age groups, it is the 18-29 demographic that is most likely to believe war imminent, with 46% saying it is likely this year. Did the Bush adminisration, with its invasion of Iraq, raise a generation of Americans to believe that war is the normal state of affairs?

Here is the methodology: “Poll Position’s scientific telephone survey of 1,152 registered voters nationwide was conducted March 04, 2012 and has a margin of error of ±3%. Poll results are weighted to be a representative sampling of all American adults.”

Posted in Uncategorized | 30 Responses | Print |

30 Responses

  1. I am ardently opposed to this war. I am also a 21 year old who believes a war is likely. War IS the normal state of affairs in this nation, as our soldiers have been almost continuously deployed in combat during my lifetime.

  2. Wait? Aren’t we already waging war on Iran? (assassinations, computer attacks, dirty tricks, economic sanctions; these are all acts of war)

  3. You get what you wish for. As Jake points out, since 1946, war has been the natural state of things for the U.S. It is the only form of government economic stimulus that Republicans believe in!

  4. The Republican numbers make me wonder whether there is indeed something to the recent studies correlating low IQ and social conservatism. This is simply not going to happen under Obama, at least this year.

    • I think there are a lot of Republicans who answer poll questions strategically, instead of answering what they really think.

      These people think that the “appeaser” Barack Obama, who they are constantly criticizing for being soft on Iran, is going to start a war with Iran? That doesn’t make any sense.

    • I’m not sure what “research” you’re referring to. Wish I was better at keeping cites on such things when I’ve seen them.

      I do believe I’ve seen where there’s an relationship between little/no education and propensity to buy into religion, and the same holding true for wealth. Hence we have the Scandinavians: good things come to those who are properly educated (stress on “properly”). This means working things with the best thinking/results/options you can find, wherever they may be: a more progressive approach.

      Meanwhile, the poor and ignorant cling to whatever they may have. Logic seems that neediness would also correlate with bad/magical thinking and not learning from your mistakes….what the GOP offers. Amongst any number of bright conservatives I run into, I don’t hit a lack of gray-matter: its more that they’ve been socialized with one perspective, and its been so very long since they were in school that they’ve forgotten (or just got tired) of thinking critically and going against their local, small town mindset. That said, with the time and the proper mood to develop a thoughtful conversation/argument, they come around to rationality. How long that would last in the face of the guys down at the coffee shop they see every day is another question. We are social animals, after all.

      • Social animals, with short lifespans, potent desires, and none of the instincts, apparently, that help school fish and ants and bees to survive and prosper.

  5. I remember Prince Andrew in line for the UK throne going off to fight in the Falklands War. What are the chances of having the sons of our economic royalists and political elites risking their hides in Iran? They have insulated themselves from the carnage to the point that even viewing the body bags being unloaded is forbidden. If the sabre rattelers and the cannon fodder shared the same risk the GOP rush to war would lose its lustre.

  6. The blood lust for war of some people for no good reason is mind boggling.

    I have to believe the power of the capitalist, corporate media is at work here on impressionable minds. Could it be the lack of critical thinking skills among youths is responsible for their believing war is likely without having any strong reasons for justifying a war?

  7. Think it depends on what your definition of war is. I don’t expect an all out invasion but air strikes seem more likely than not at this point.

  8. Even after the last American soldier comes home from Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. will continue to bear the long-term costs of caring for its soldiers. Where is the money to attack Iran supposed to come from?

    • Ooh! Ooh! I know that one! The money will be borrowed from China! or taken from the “Social Security Trust Fund Current Account!” or maybe we can start the War Bonds thing again!

      An attack on Iran would just use money and materiel that’s already on board and in the pipeline, so it’s not like there’s any Present Cost. And then there’d be a Stealth Supplemental, authorizing and appropriating another boatload or three of bullets and baksheesh.

      Too bad all most of us see is scenarios in “Call of Duty — KillKillKill!” or those nice sanitary helmet-cam and gun-camera videos over in YoutubeLand, billions of “hits” on tens of thousands of actual-snuff-porn Dead Enemy vids. None of that complex parallel parasitic tumor of a separate culture, the whole logistics-and-procurement-and-deployment Beast that is the MIC. The thing that so often drives “policy” by happening, seemingly, with lots of PowerPoint Proof, to have Just The Right Weapon readily to hand, to effectuate what they peddle as Just The Right Doctrine, at Just The Right Time.

      The purpose of power is power. The purpose of war is war. See how easy it all can be, from an ergonomic chair in a Situation Room far, far away?

  9. Important to know what the exact question was isnt it?..To comment on whether there will be a war or their won’t be a war, is predicated solely on the sense of the question – and that question I don’t see. If we are in danger then there we should attack and destroy without troops on the ground…if we are not in danger, then the hell with them all, is my attitude….yes I am one of those dumb conservatives with a Phd.

  10. This is not good news. It seems the Dems are as blind to the danger as the Reps are to their Pavlovian March – to the Ambien, Prozac, Viagra and crotch-shots on Fox News Kool-Aid. Really rather ahhh… pristine example of just how thoroughly the general population, in particular the low information subset, has been manipulated. Scoff, if you wish, at thoughts of a “conspiracy”.

    • Meh. I remember when it was believing that American troops would be out of Iraq by the end of 2011 than showed that Democrats were blind.

      Maybe the people who aren’t expecting the worst are right.

  11. I don’t understand why we have to engage in speculation about the reasons people answer the way they do. Why can’t the pollsters ask a follow up question? “If you believe war is likely/unlikely, why? a) It’s the normal state of affairs, b) because I think the US should go to war…” etc. I’d also like to see the exact wording of the question and the methodology.

    • The constant unremitting warmongering is likely the reason why many of the respondents answered the way they did, feeling that war is inevitable whether they personally support it or not.

    • Carl
      I’d be more suspicious if the differences between the Democrat voters and the Republican voters were closer together.
      If one trawls the recent research papers from the various specialist sub disciplines of psychology one will find the the base reasons for their views.

      my point is that questions as per your offering would be subject to a series of other more recent stimuli, media saturation, rationalisations all of which will come back to their cultural/conditioned world view (see Yale Cultural Cognition Project). The numbers confirm this projects conclusions and vice versa

      The question is how to use these factors to stop what would clearly result in catastrophe of potential escalating or open ended consequences. This is especially true when one considers the myriad of contributive interests and factors.

  12. As an pro-peace guy who came of age during America’s 21st century wars; I do believe war is the normal state of affairs. We learned the history of past wars, where the citizenry had to make sacrifices; they had to grow gardens, salvage metal, buy war bonds, give up essential goods like meat, and face a draft. But today, US citizens are as insulated as possible from the effects of war. The media does its best to make sure that we don’t understand how war actually does effect us, like how loose war talk is driving up gas prices.

    It reminds me of an episode of the original Star Trek where the crew encounters 2 planets locked in a simulated computer war. When people were “killed” they had to report for execution. The point of the episode was that they had sanitized war to the point where they had no incentive to ever stop fighting, and that is what’s happening in the US today (minus execution chambers).

    Since a lot of people live comfortably in the US, they don’t have to sacrifice anything for war. Most of the people who are suffering from the poor economy don’t realize it’s connected to our wars so they don’t complain either.

  13. War is America’s past time. and has been since i was born.1956. lots of lulls, but mostly war, for the few, aka, the rich and the politically connected to the Military Industrical Congressional Complex.

    and of course, if Israel, our 51st state, wants another “enemy” taken out, America must do Israel’s bidding. as it always has been, so shall it always be. at least it has been during my life time.

    i wonder why anyone would bother to ask such dumb questions about the Empire known as America and Israel. just look at the history of these two war mongering countries/empires. past is prelude to another war.

    John McCain and George Bush and all the rest of the GOP Military Industrial Complex gets quite rich off of the wars. notice how many poor and “Unconnected” Americans fight these wars, as well.

    We Americans take it for granted that Israel will get its’ wish to bomb Iran.
    that is just what Americans and Israelis do. Bomb the hell out of anyone who dares question anything these Empires have always wanted.

    Funny how God willing, the next war will be on another Islamic Country.
    “God Willing” even corrupting the power of God for the blood thirsty Empire. that’s just the way it is. People need to get “over” it.

    the average Iranians need to leave Iran before it gets worse, as it will, before we and Israel “finish” off the populace like we did in Iraq with the sanctions Clinton et al put on the poor in order to get “Saddam.”

    such stupidity/hatred is just the American “Way.” always has been and always will be. and this poll just goes to prove how stupid the Democrats come across. Americans don’t need to be led to war, they push for it under the guise of our “leaders.”

    with Government like this who needs enemies.

  14. Don’t expect Gamers, Ipad owners, armchair politicians, social networking fbookers, the currently empowered majority, to rise up and complain to effect with the moral courage and concern of the Ban The Bombers of the 60s; just all media and business now; sadly.
    Toss ur coin for whose gonna be in power and when all hell breaks loose in Iran too.
    Israel has a lot to answer for, but to whom? US is embedded in their policies.

  15. RE: “A majority (57%) of Republicans believe that the US will attack Iran this year, whereas only a quarter say no.” ~ Cole

    MY COMMENT: Probably not entirely coincidentally, a significant percentage of Republicans believe The Rapture™ will occur in their lifetime(s)!

  16. Scientists tested the effect of a single dose of LSD for Warmongering in 536 adults. Researchers found that 59% of Republicans who took acid either dramatically cut back their wishes for war or became peaceful.

  17. Rush in Wonderland apologizes for the poor choice of words “Republicans who took acid” and for his parents ever having sex.

  18. Did the pollsters ask if the polees WANTED a war, or believed it justified, or only if the polees EXPECTED a war?

  19. I think there is a bit more good news & hope than what a lot of you guys are perceiving, the devil and conversely, grace, both being in the details.

    Regarding Republicans: this time around the antiwar candidate was from the right, Ron Paul. So for the first time in my life, something I never thought would happen in my wildest dreams, I sent early money to a Republican candidate. The Paul primary campaigns drew a steady, heartening 15%-20% of the vote, heartening because I figure that means at least 15%-20% of Republicans, maybe even more, are sane and have their heads screwed on right.

    Also, Paul drew the biggest portion of military donations, more than any other Republican candidate. Which brings me to my most hopeful point — the US military high command is against an attack on Iran. This is like an odd coming-true of the old antiwar slogan: “What if they gave a war and nobody came?” Again, the good news comes from the right.

    About the Israeli influence on American foreign policy — totally over the top in my opinion. Over the top and peaked, already on its’ way down. It took me a long time to finally concede that the tail does indeed wag the dog, it seemed too ludicrous and unlikely, given the bent for empire in US history. But I do think it is true and this unlikely to cease until the US finally does something about campaign finance laws. Fortunately, the Israelis probably went way too far this time, goading us to aggressive war openly, and openly manipulating the US political system during an election year, openly going for ‘regime change’ in the US, openly humiliating the US president, openly trying to throw the election to a Republican.

    So maybe that problem has peaked. Certainly there is a lot more criticism of Israel and the effect Israel has on US politics now than 10 years ago, and this criticism coming from both the left and the right. I think the only real US constituency that Israel has are politicized Christian fundamentalists. Along with blackmailed, bought-and-paid-for politicians.

    stay tuned, this is a story in progress. don’t despair :>)

  20. So Israel did not get The President’s approval for Open Season on Iran just for Palestinians? Syrian rebels matter but Palestinians in their own territory don’t count? A dozen got killed as if in spite over Iran. Like went home and kicked the cat.
    I’m confused about which lives are important and to whom!

  21. Israel will only strike Iranian nuclear facilities in September or after the United States presidential elections in November, a White House official told the British Sunday Times newspaper after a meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama last week.
    According to the report, Obama has taken Israel’s warnings about a possible strike in Iran very seriously. The Washington source added that the president “might visit in the summer to reassure the Israelis that the US commitment to defend Israel is unshakable and thus thwart a possible autumn attack.”

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