Western Intelligence Analysts Worry that Iran Sanctions are Hurting West: IRGC

The USG Open Source Center translates an article from Javan, an organ of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC: Iran’s National Guard), analyzing alleged Western intelligence summits that question the effectiveness of sanctions on Iran. The article should be taken with a grain of salt, but it makes some good points. Iran has used saber-rattling to raise the price of petroleum by alarming investors and speculators, thus increasing its income in the past quarter by $3 billion, rather than suffering a shortfall. At the same time, it has inflicted pain at the pump on fragile Western economies in danger of slipping back into recession. It is plausible that there is severe doubt among intelligence analysts about the impact of and likely success of sanctions in changing regime behavior.

‘ Iran: Report Describes Western Intelligence Services’ Perspectives on Iran
Report entitled: “Behind the Scenes Look at Five Intelligence Services’ Meeting on Iran”
Javan online
Thursday, March 22, 2012 …
Document Type: OSC Translated Text…

Javan online

20 March 2012

Report Describes Western Intelligence Services Perspectives on Iran

Javan online: Informed sources say the wave of intelligence reports in the West that say the oil sanctions have ended to Iran’s great advantage have caused much confusion among the men of government in Europe and America.

An informed source who works in the area of the economy and tracks intelligence reports about Iran reported that in the last month more than three intelligence reports produced by European and American intelligence services classified confidential and above, have all concluded that for numerous reasons Iran has been the big winner in the oil sanctions and that in a completely smart way these sanctions have increased Iran’s revenues while the average revenues of the nations of the world are decreasing because of the economic crisis.

Nuclear Iran writes that an informed source said: “In Stockholm, teams from the CIA (America), Mossad (Israel), MI6 (England), BND (Germany) and DGSE (France) are now discussing one of the main areas of focus in these reports, which is that instead of reducing Iran’s revenue, in the last three months the oil sanctions have increased Iran’s revenues by more than $3 billion.”

This source added: “Western services who want to express views about the content of their findings believe by cleverly intensifying the verbal clashes with America and Israel Iran has caused constant shocks to the price of oil without any oil sanctions being effectively applied against it.”

According to this informed official the Western services and especially the German service believe Iran has made good use of the existing crisis in the world economy and has presented the West with a choice between weakening its economy by intensifying the sanctions against Iran or sharply reducing the sanctions.

This source continued: “The Stockholm meeting has effectively become a trial of America and Israel. The European nations believe Iran in coordination with Russia and China has used the main weakness of the Western nations, meaning the extreme sensitivity of public opinion in these nations to fuel price increases, and it has created conditions where the chance of the political survival of the people currently governing these nations has been greatly reduced, especially since almost all of these nations including America and France are about to hold elections. Accordingly the probability exists that insisting on putting restrictions on Iran’s oil sector will lead to internal crisis in the Western nations.”

This source, who emphasized the many limitations on providing intelligence about this, also added that the Western services believe the 12 Esfand (2 March) elections showed that the government of Iran has succeeded in stopping the project of “transferring pressure to the people” and has effectively not allowed foreign pressures to have an impact on ordinary life in Iran.

According to this source the intelligence evaluation of the five Western sources is that the people of Iran believe existing inflation is due to a domestic process and that there is no relationship between this inflation and the pressures of the West.

On this basis those at the meeting have decided the BBC Persian Service under MI6 oversight must produce a new propaganda package about the relationship between sanctions and inflation.

The existing intelligence shows that this meeting was a preliminary for a more essential meeting to be held in the month of May and at that meeting the European nations will examine the possibility or impossibility of applying oil sanctions against Iran in June 2012.

Existing intelligence shows that these services have still warned that insisting on oil sanctions against Iran will further damage relations with Russia, China and India.

This intelligence source said: “There is the sense that the European and American intelligence community regard the sanctions option, like the war option, as being ineffective in influencing Iran’s calculations.”

(Description of Source: Tehran Javan online in Persian Website of hardline conservative daily affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC); ) ‘

Posted in Uncategorized | 14 Responses | Print |

14 Responses

  1. My worry is that those who are currently trying to avert war by asking that sanctions be given time to work have painted themselves into a corner. Their policy is already backfiring, so what will they do once the war party starts saying, “We told you so.”?

  2. But Iran’s “saber-rattling” was defensive, ie, a response to US oil sanctions and explicit US/ Israeli threats of military attacks. The spike in gas prices is on Obama, who could bring down the speculators’ market by walking back his sanctions and threats.

  3. If you were an organ of the Iranian government, and you actually believed that, for the first time in human history, being placed under international sanctions had actually helped your country’s economy, would you go out of your way to tell the world?

    • RE: “If you were an organ of the Iranian government, and you actually believed that, for the first time in human history, being placed under international sanctions had actually helped your country’s economy, would you go out of your way to tell the world?”

      Yes, if the actual economic gain from it were less important to you than the psycho/soft-war value of publicizing such outcomes.

      • Yes, if the actual economic gain from it were less important to you than the psycho/soft-war value of publicizing such outcomes.

        But even then, you would have to conclude that the argument about the sanctions harming your country and hurting innocent people was worth sacrificing in order to publicize this outcome.

        Which scenario seems more likely to you:

        1) Harsh international sanctions on a country’s largest export harm that country’s economy, and drawing attention to that harm is a more effective PR move than claiming the sanctions are actually helping you, or

        2) Harsh international sanctions on a country’s largest export help that country’s economy, and accusing those who imposed the sanctions of incompetence is more effective than accusing them of starving innocent people.

  4. Other than outright war and sanctions , there is a third option – talks !! why dont west do that ? Turkey and Brazil made Iran agree to swap whole of it’s enriched Uranium for the fuel rods .. Thus robbing Iran of weaponiable Uranium and relieved west ..

    but for some reason Obama walked away from that and instead put more sanctions and closed all talks !!

    When will west realize their folly ??

    • “Other than outright war and sanctions , there is a third option – talks !! why dont west do that ? Turkey and Brazil made Iran agree to swap whole of it’s enriched Uranium for the fuel rods .. Thus robbing Iran of weaponiable Uranium and relieved west ..

      but for some reason Obama walked away from that and instead put more sanctions and closed all talks !!

      When will west realize their folly ??”

      Actually, it was Brazil and Turkey that committed folly by entering into talks with Iran over the nuclear issue. They ended up getting snookered by Iran. The West was smart to stay out of it.

      The visit of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s former President, to Tehran to broker a nuclear deal with the Iranians was a naive attempt to insert Brazil onto the world stage and a not-too-subtle dig at the United States. The irony is that the attempt backfired on da Silva, even in Brazil. It is generally acknowledged that Iran was using the da Silva mission to both forestall implementation of the draft sanctions that had just been agreed to by the UN Perm Five (including Russia and China) and to stall for more time to develop their nuclear capacity.

      Under the agreement brokered by Brazil (as well as Turkey), Iran agreed to send uranium enriched at a low level abroad, reviving parts of a fuel swap plan originally proposed the previous October. Despite the agreement, however, and to the consternation of the Brazilians (who were caught flat-footed), Iranian officials announced that they planned to continue enriching uranium. This announcement revealed how hollow the agreement really was.

  5. Nice to see a hoodied high priest of Intel saying this. But this isn’t high intel. This is only common sense. Why does common sense coming from the intel community arrive like a bolt of lightning? Sanctions don’t work the way they are advertised, especially in the world of oil. Fuel prices aren’t due to Iran, but to confrontive American political pressures, speculation, and American love of consumption, as in tuberculosis. If the US doesn’t do something profoundly different about its stupendous waste in the cause of individual freedom, and predelection to military and economic threats, today’s highest fuel prices are gonna be the ‘good ol’ days’. Five dollar gas is going to look awfully good when it hits ten.

  6. Responding to Joe from Lowell,
    Yes, I would go out of my way to tell the world. The basic logic in that lays with a simple assumption that, so long as the Iranians are both informed & feel it that their country is strong-enough to respond to the West’s economic war against them: That in itself, is a reassuring feed-back, which not only helps the nation that is in the process of going to war. Also, it sends a clear message to the enemy, if they perceive this to be the first phase of the up-coming war, those Zionist-warmongers should also prepare their people for what is laid ahead. In that, Iran does not have to do anything: So long as, all decisions and shouting against Iran, are taken with such naivety in the West, and the average man there in the West feels the real pain because of; the Iranians are quite happy to live with that.

    • Interesting. This would mean that the people who ran this article are more concerned with boosting domestic morale, and with generating using Americans’ economic concerns to drum up opposition to the sanctions, than with garnering sympathy from the rest of the world. Publicizing this story necessarily means sacrificing the claim that the sanctions are hurting the country, by putting out information that they are actually helping the country.

  7. @Joe
    Iran — AKA “regime” — is not going out of its way at all to tell the world that sanctions help Iran and hurt the west, it is telling a simple fact. Justice IS blind.

    • Why do you imagine that the words “simple fact” refute the observation that Iran is going out of its way to tell the world?

      “But it’s true” is not an answer to the question “Why are they doing this?” Do you think that the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence agency puts out press releases to highlight everything they think is “a simple fact?”

      Whether we’re talking about “white” information (straight, accurate facts), “grey” (spin on the facts), or “black” (lies), intelligence agencies put out information for a reason. “It’s a simple fact” doesn’t cut it as an explanation for why an intelligence agency is saying something.

    • BTW, “Iran” is a big, complicated place with a very complicated political system. The phrase Iran – AKA “regime” suggests a simplistic unity that just does not apply. It wouldn’t even be accurate to call the sources of the Javan article “Iran’s intelligence community,” much less “Iran.”

  8. Much as this article makes sense in it’s analysis that sanctions are possible hurting the Western economies, it’s also a very good way of changing the mindset of opponents of war by suggesting that the economic recovery is stalling because of war drums and rocketing oil prices. Remember as well that high oil prices bring increased profits to the likes of the Koch brothers, who no doubt have a big interest in the war machine when Israel finally gets it’s own way.

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