Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Sunday, October 12, 2008

October Surprise?
Security Agreement said Near Signing;
3000 Christians Flee Mosul

Is this part of a Bush attempt at an October surprise? Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that its sources in Baghdad say that the al-Maliki government will sign off on a security agreement with the Bush administration "within days." The report says that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has assured the government that he will accept the agreement if it can pass parliament. Pundits are debating how likely the measure is to get through the Iraqi legislature, with some denying it has a chance and others saying it will sail through. Since Bush caved on the timeline for American troop withdrawal, saying we will be out in 2011 assuming the situation allows, I'm not sure the agreement will be so controversial. The Kurds will back it with their 58 seats, and al-Maliki just needs 80 Shiites to back it in order to pass it.

One wild card for al-Maliki is whether the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, headed by Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim, will back the agreement or attampt to derail it. Shiite MP Qasim Daud alleged that Iran is working through ISCI to derail the agreement.

The alternative to concluding such an agreement is for Iraq to remain under the provisions of Chatper 7 of the UN Charter, which deny it full sovereignty (a step that would be very unpopular in Iraq now). No one wants that.

Obviously, McCain will trumpet a successfully concluded security agreement as yet another benefit of the troop escalation plan or 'surge' of 2007-2008. Ironically, the advantages the Republicans have on foreign policy (e.g., Bush gave in on several measures in order to get the agreement initialled before Nov. are now outweighbed by the financial crisis.

Attacks on and assassinations of Christians in Iraq's northern metropolis of Mosul led to the exodus of several hundred families, perhaps as many as 3,000 individuals, in the past two days. This according to the governor of Ninevah Province, Duraid Kashmula (Mosul is the capital of Ninevah).

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100 Killed in Afghanistan;
Security Deteriorating

Anand Gopal at Tomdispatch.com on 'Who rules Afghanistan'?

NATO is planning a crackdown on narcotics traffickers in Afghanistan.

Pushtun guerrillas in Helmand Province attacked police positions near the capital, Lashkargah, provoking a land attack from the AFghan military with close air support from NATO, which left about 100 Afghans dead, who are being labled 'Taliban.'

The US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff warns that the security situation in Afghanistan will likely get worse in 2009

Aljazeera International reports on the difficulties girls in the south of Afghanistan have in getting an education, given the resurgence of the Taliban (who have destroyed some girls' schools). The report also says that health services are not as well provided as the government maintains:

Saturday, October 11, 2008

McCain: Obama Decent, no Arab

John McCain quickly shed his last vestiges of decency when he allowed his campaign to try to smear Barack Obama for having been in the same room with Bill Ayers, who had been a Weatherman in the 1960s when Obama was a child. McCain knows very well that Obama is a centrist, not a radical, that Ayers had long since been rehabilitated and has ties to the Republican governor of South Carolina, and that Obama had very little to do with Ayers. The 'terrorist' charge is supposed to work subliminally, and to subconsciously suggest other smears. In contrast to Obama, McCain was closely associated with an extremist organization, the US Council for World Freedom of John Singlaub. I showed that he went on associating with it long after he claims to have resigned.

So having created this foaming-at-the-mouth mob, McCain finds himself booed by it when he offers some pro forma boilerplate about Obama being decent and a family man. But his campaign ads haven't been alleging decency, they've been alleging "terrorist ties." You can't wave raw meat dripping blood at Doberman Pinschers and then suddenly pull it away without producing snarling, baring of incisors, and straining at the leash.

The McCain attempt to connect race and terror on a subliminal level in his advertising, while projecting an image of taking the high road in his public appearances crashed and burned on Friday when he did not notice he was engaging in racist hate speech:

' Later, another supporter told McCain, "I don't trust Obama...He's an Arab."

McCain stood shaking his head as she spoke, then quickly took the microphone from her.

"No, ma'am," he said. "He's a decent, family man, a citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with." '


McCain should have said, "there would be nothing wrong with being an Arab, but Obama is not." The way he put it strongly implied that he had a low opinion of Arabs.

An Arab is a native speaker of the Arabic language, which is akin to Hebrew. The Arab civilization is one of the more glorious in world history, having bestowed on the world great scientific and cultural achievements. Arabic is spoken in North Africa and West Asia by approximately 250 million people, a group only somewhat smaller than the population of the United States.



Arabs began immigrating into the United States in the 1880s from Lebanon, and have been an important ethnic group during the past over a century. They provided everything from auto workers to physicians and comedians. There are probably three million self-identified Arab-Americans, and as a group they are slightly wealthier, younger and more educated than Americans in general. (If we counted everyone with at least an 8th Lebanese ancestry as Arab-American, they would be many millions, but most don't self-identify that way). Arab-Americans are more likely to own a business than the average American. Until very recently, they were slightly more likely to vote Republican than Democrat (they are now trending Democrat). They are potential swing voters in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Florida.

Here is the video.



That confused woman probably did not mean "Arab" but "Muslim." (She later said she was afraid America would become a Muslim country.)

But Arab is a linguistic identity whereas Muslim is a religious one. Not all Arabs are Muslims. The Copts in Egypt (6% of the population) speak Arabic but are Christians. Likewise the Maronites in Lebanon and many Chaldeans and Assyrians in Iraq. About 7,000 Jews living in Morocco speak Arabic at home.

If not all Arabs are Muslims, only a minority of Muslims is Arab. Iranians (70 million strong) are not Arabs. Turks are not Arabs. Pakistanis are not Arabs. Malaysians and Indonesians are not Arabs. Nigerians and Senegalese are not Arabs. But all these national or ethnic groups are predominantly Muslim.

Worse than the lady's confusion between Arab and Muslim were her further obvious confusion between Muslim and dangerous.

Mr. McCain, Arab-Americans and Muslim-Americans are decent, family-oriented citizens. The only thing wrong with calling Obama by either of these modifiers is that it would be incorrect. He is not an Arab ethnically, but rather northern European and Luo (Nilotic). He is not a Muslim but a Christian.

McCain's insinuation that "Arabs" (whether he and his friend actually meant "Muslims" or not) are not decent and not family-oriented and not citizens is obscene.

Ralph Nader, one of McCain's rivals for the presidency, is an Arab-American, and McCain owes Mr. Nader and all Arab-Americans, indeed, all Americans, a huge apology.

As with his self-professed "hatred" of "gooks," McCain's suddenly revealed attitude toward Arab-Americans is extremely troubling.

Turkish Air Strikes;
Bombings, Attacks Kill 24

Turkish war planes hit 21 targets inside Iraq, in the Kurdish north, on Friday night.

Meanwhile, bombings and attacks killed 24 and wounded 45 in the mixed district of Dora.

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Friday, October 10, 2008

Economy in Free Fall, Politics of Personal Destruction

Graph of world markets in free fall.

Obama predicted the Republican smear strategy against him last July, in every detail. They will try to paint him as "risky." Reply: "It is too risky not to change."




Obama: "I can take 4 more weeks of McCain's Attacks
But America Can't Take 4 More Years Of Failed McCain\Bush Look Alike Policies"

"Your employees tell me you're a die-hard Republican."

"That's true."

"I said, 'How's business?'"



Biden: These personal attacks on Obama are intended to get you to take your eye off what is happening. "In my neighborhood, if you've got something to say to a man, look him in the eye and say it to him."

GI Killed;
Sadrist Politician Assassinated

A US GI was killed on Tuesday in Mosul while answering a distress call

Assailants killed Sadrist parliamentarian Salih al-`Ukayli with a roadside bomb near Sadr City in East Baghdad. Al-`Ukayli has been a supporter of civil politics, expressing happiness that the Mahdi Army has stood down.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that members of the Sadr Movement blamed the United States and "Iraqi quarters" for the assassination, saying that it was intended to send a message to opponents of the security agreement being negotiated between the al-Maliki government and the Bush administration. (The Sadrists oppose any such agreement unless it preserves Iraqi sovereignty and sets a short timetable for US withdrawal).

Al-Hayat also reports that Ninevah governor Durayd Kashmula is critical of the al-Maliki government for starting a security sweep of Mosul but not following through.

Guerrillas attempting to destabilize the Iraqi government are increasingly resorting to assassination in order to attain their goals.

The cholera outbreak in Babil Province is a product of official corruption. Old chlorine-based bleach past its expiry date was purchased from Iran. Other provinces declined to use it. But Badr Organization officials in Babil allowed its use to go forward, sickening hundreds. The al-Maliki government is treating the matter as a corruption case. The scandal may help his beleaguered Da'wa Party, which he has been attempting to promote as a mass political party in hopes it can displace the Badr Organization and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq

The Chaldean bishop in Kirkuk warned Thursday that some groups are attempting to ethnically cleanse Iraq's Christians.

"The National Security Agency routinely listened in on the intimate and innocent phone calls of Americans in Iraq, including government personnel, journalists and aid workers, as they called back into the United States, according to two former NSA operators who spoke to ABC News."

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

- Around 8 am a roadside bomb targeted a traffic police patrol in Mudhafar intersection in Sadr city. Four people were injured including two traffic policemen.

- Around 10:10 am a parked motor bike bomb targeted Salih Al-Ughalii convoy (a parliament member of the Sadr bloc) in Habibiyah neighborhood. Two guards were killed and four were injured including the parliament member who was seriously injured and then he died in hospital.

- Around 4 pm an adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car in Mansour neighborhood. The driver was killed in that incident.

- Police found 2 dead bodies in Baghdad neighborhoods today: one was in Sleikh in Risafa bank (north Baghdad) and one was in Tobchi in Karkh bank (west Baghdad).

Diyala

- Around 7:30 am a roadside bomb targeted a mini bus in Udhaim town (about 31 miles of Baquba). Four people of one family were killed (the father, the mother, the son and the little daughter) and five other women were wounded. The man who was killed was a Sahwa member.

Mosul

- A roadside bomb detonated inside a restaurant in Tal Afar (west of Mosul). Two people were killed (including a policeman) and three others were wounded.


- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Mosul city. One policeman was killed.

Karbala

- An adhesive bomb stuck to a civilian car detonated in Al-Hurr town (about 10 miles north of Karbala) around 10 am. The driver of the car was killed who was an employee in the maintenance department of the Karbala council.

Anbar

- A suicide bomber targeted the battalion emergency headquarter for Al-Subtayeen brigade in Habaniya area ( 13 miles west of Falluja). Three policemen were killed and eight others were wounded.

Kirkuk

- Gunmen killed an intelligence member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) with a civilian who was with him in Aghjlar town( east of Kirkuk) on Wednesday night.

- Three mortars hit the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) headquarters in Kirkuk city on Wednesday night. Two women were wounded.

- Police found a dead body for a Sahwa member in Zab town (west of Kirkuk).'

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Suicide Bomber Kills 11 in Baquba;
Turks to Continue Strikes on Iraq

A female suicide bomber detonated her belt bomb on Wednesday near some Iraqi army humvees in front of a courthouse in Baquba, killing at least 11 persons and wounding 20. Five Iraqi soldiers were killed, including 2 Majors. Baquba, the capital of Diyala Province, is 35 miles northeast of Baghdad. It is riven by conflicts between Sunnis and Shiites and between Arabs and Kurds.

The Turkish parliament renewed the blanket permission it has given its army to attack Kurdish rebels inside northern Iraq. It is really quite extraordinary that what would ordinarily be viewed as acts of war go without remark almost everywhere but in the Kurdish press of northern Iraq.

Sunni Arab guerrillas are waging a campaign of killing against Iraqi Christians in Mosul.

The next National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq will likely say that the place is an ethnic and sectarian tinderbox that could explode at any moment.

Magnetized or 'sticky' bombs are being deployed against vehicles by Iraqi guerrillas with increasing frequency as a tool of assassination aimed at the middle managers of the Iraqi government as well as top officials.

Iraqi professionals are still fleeing the country in droves, according to Tina Susman of the LAT.

Straitened economic circumstances may place in doubt the US military budget of $694 billion a year or so, which is at World War II levels.

Iraq will likely hold provincial elections early in 2009. Several incumbent parties could lose power at the provincial level, though they would retain their position in parliament until the next polls for the federal legislature. One thing to watch is how the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq does in the Shiite south, where it now dominates most provinces. If it loses to the Sadr Movement, the latter's leader Muqtada al-Sadr would be in a position to block the planned amalgamation of southern provinces into a Shiite super province.

Among the likely losers is the Sunni Arab fundamentalist party, the Iraqi Islamic Party, The IIP may lose big to the Awakening Councils, or pro-American militias. Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that the Al-Maliki government, which has assumed responsibility for most of these former guerrillas, is arresting more of the Awakening Council members.

The Federal Communnications Commission will investigate the ties of retired military analysts on cable and network television to the Pentagon, which used them as "force multimpliers". Although the NYT blew the whistle on these links months ago, the television networks never even reported the allegations!

Mahmud Shahrudi, chief of the Iranian judiciary and himself of Iraqi origin, said Wednesday that Iraq does not need US troops on its soil, and that Iraq should not sign a Status of Forces Agreement with the US.

McClatchy reports other political violence in Iraq on on Tuesday and Wednesday:

' Baghdad

Around 7:30 a.m. a roadside bomb exploded in Baladiyat neighborhood in east Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

Two civilians were injured by a roadside bomb in Adhemiyah neighborhood in east Baghdad around 6:30 p.m.

Police found one unidentified body in Obeidi neighborhood.

Diyala

Around 11:45 a.m. a female suicide bomber blew herself up near the Diyala governorate building in downtown Baquba city north of Baghdad targeting security forces. Five Iraqi soldiers were killed including 2 high rank officers (2 Majors) in addition to a policeman and three civilians. Twenty people (16 civilians and 4 policemen were injured)

Nineveh

Three policemen were killed and six others were wounded by a roadside bomb in al Rashidiyah neighborhood in Mosul city on Wednesday afternoon.

Gunmen killed two Christian men on Tuesday evening in Mosul city.

Gunmen killed a Christian man on Wednesday morning in Mosul city.'

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Reprint Edn.: Barack Hussein Obama, Omar Bradley, Benjamin Franklin and other Semitically Named American Heroes

The below is reprinted from From February 27, 2008, because the [non-] issue is coming back up.

At Cincinnati, Bill Cunningham, according to the LAT, who "introduced presidential candidate John McCain at a rally here today accused Barack Obama of sympathizing with 'world leaders who want to kill us' and invoked Obama's middle name -- three times calling him 'Barack Hussein Obama.' " John McCain repudiated Cunningham's low tactics and said that using the middle name like that three times was "inappropriate" and would never happen again at one of his rallies.

I want to say something about Barack Hussein Obama's name. It is a name to be proud of. It is an American name. It is a blessed name. It is a heroic name, as heroic and American in its own way as the name of General Omar Nelson Bradley or the name of Benjamin Franklin. And denigrating that name is a form of racial and religious bigotry of the most vile and debased sort. It is a prejudice against names deriving from Semitic languages!



Christian, Western heroes have often been bequeathed Middle Eastern names. Rodrigo Diaz de Vivar, the medieval Spanish hero, carried the name El Cid, from the Arabic al-Sayyid, "the lord."

Barack and Hussein are Semitic words. Americans have been named with Semitic names since the founding of the Republic. Fourteen of our 43 presidents have had Semitic names (see below). And, American English contains many Arabic-derived words that we use every day and without which we would be much impoverished. America is a world civilization with a world heritage, something Cunninghamism will never understand.

Barack is a Semitic word meaning "to bless" as a verb or "blessing" as a noun. In its Hebrew form, barak, it is found all through the Bible. It first occurs in Genesis 1:22: "And God blessed (ḇāreḵə ) them, saying, Be fruitful, and multiply, and fill the waters in the seas, and let fowl multiply in the earth."

Here is a list of how many times barak appears in each book of the Bible.

Now let us take the name "Hussein." It is from the Semitic word, hasan, meaning "good" or "handsome." Husayn is the diminutive, affectionate form.

Barack Obama's middle name is in honor of his grandfather, Hussein, a secular resident of Nairobi. Americans may think of Saddam Hussein when they hear the name, but that is like thinking of Stalin when you hear the name Joseph. There have been lots of Husseins in history, from the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, a hero who touched the historian Gibbon, to King Hussein of Jordan, one of America's most steadfast allies in the 20th century. The author of the beloved American novel, The Kite Runner, is Khaled Hosseini.

But in Obama's case, it is just a reference to his grandfather.

It is worth pointing out that John McCain's adopted daughter, Bridget, is originally from Bangladesh. Since Hussein is a very common name in Bangladesh, it is entirely possible that her birth father or grandfather was named Hussein. McCain certainly has Muslim relatives via adoption in his family. If Muslim relatives are a disqualification from high office in the United States, then McCain himself is in trouble. In fact, since Bridget is upset that George W. Bush doesn't like her "because she is black," and used her to stop the McCain campaign in South Carolina in 2000, you understand why McCain would be especially sensitive to race-baiting of Cunningham's sort. The question is how vigorously he will combat it; he hasn't been above Muslim-taunting in the campaign so far. (And, the McCains really should let Bridget know that she is Asian, not "black." The poor girl; Bush and Rove have done a number on her, and Cindy's confusion can't help.)

The other thing to say about grandfathers named Hussein is that very large numbers of African-Americans probably have an ancestor ten or eleven generations ago with that name, in what is now Mali or Senegal or Nigeria. And, since so many thousands of Arab Muslims were made to convert to Catholicism in Spain after 1501, many Latinos have distant ancestors named Hussein, too. In fact, since there was a lot of Arab-Spanish intermarriage, and since there was subsequent Spanish intermarriage with other European Catholics, more European Americans are descended from a Hussein than they realize. The British royal family is quite forthright about the Arab line in their ancestry going back to Andalusia.

Obama, being a cousin of Dick Cheney on one side and having relatives in Kenya on the other, is just more and more typical of the 21st century United States.

So, anyway, Obama's first two names mean "Blessing, the Good." If we are lucky enough to get him for president, we can only hope that his names are prophetic for us.

Which brings me to Omar Bradley. Omar is an alternative spelling of Umar, i.e. Umar ibn al-Khattab, the second caliph of Sunni Islam. Presumably General Bradley was named for the poet Omar Khayyam, who bore the caliph's name. Omar Khayyam's Rubaiyat, in the "translation" of Edward FitzGerald, became enormously popular in Victorian America.

Gen. Omar Bradley, who bore a Semitic, Muslim first name, and shared it with the second Caliph of Sunni Islam, was the hero of D-Day and Normandy, of the Battle of the Bulge and the Ruhr.



Would Mr. Cunningham see Omar Bradley as un-American, as an enemy because of his name?

What about other American heroes, such as Gen. George Joulwan, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander of Europe? "Joulwan" is an Arabic name. Or there is Gen. John Abizaid, former CENTCOM commander. Abizaid is an Arabic name. Abi means Abu or "father of," and Zaid is a common Arab first name. Is Cunningham good enough to wipe their shoes? Is he going to call them traitors because they have Arabic names?



What about Congressman Darrell Issa of California? ("`Isa" means Jesus in Arabic). Former cabinet secretary Donna Shalala? (Shalala means "waterfall" in Arabic).

I won't go into all the great Americans with Arabic names in sports, entertainment and business, against whom Cunningham would apparently discriminate on that basis. Does he want to take citizenship away from Kareem Abdul Jabbar [meaning "noble the servant of the Mighty"] and Ahmad Jamal [meaning "the most praised, beauty"]? What about Rihanna ["sweet basil," "aromatic"]? Tony Shalhoub [i.e. Mr. Monk]?

Let us take Benjamin Franklin. His first name is from the Hebrew Bin Yamin, the son of the Right (hand), or son of strength, or the son of the South (yamin or right has lots of connotations). The "Bin" means "son of," just as in modern colloquial Arabic. Bin Yamin Franklin is not a dishonorable name because of its Semitic root. By the way, there are lots of Muslims named Bin Yamin.

As for an American president bearing a name derived from a Semitic language, that is hardly unprecedented.

John Adams really only had Semitic names. His first name is from the Hebrew Yochanan, or gift of God, which became Johan and then John. (In German and in medieval English, "y" is represented by "j" but was originally pronounced "y".) Adams is from the biblical Adam, which also just means "human being." In Arabic, one way of saying "human being" is "Bani Adam," the children of men.

Thomas Jefferson's first name is from the Aramaic Tuma, meaning "twin." Aramaic is a Semitic language spoken by Jesus, which is related to Hebrew and Arabic. In Arabic twin is tau'am, so you can see the similarity.

James Madison, James Monroe and James Polk all had a Semitic first name, derived from the Hebrew Ya'aqov or Jacob, which is Ya`qub in Arabic. It became Iacobus in Latin, then was corrupted to Iacomus, and from there became James in English.

Zachary Taylor's first name is from the Hebrew Zachariah, which means "the Lord has remembered."

Abraham Lincoln, of course is, named for the patriarch Abraham, from the Semitic word for father, Ab, and the word for "multitude," raham,. Abu, "father of," is a common element in Arab names today.

So, Mr. Cunningham, Barack Hussein Obama fits right in this list of presidents with Semitic names. In fact, we haven't had one for a while. We are due for another one.

A blessed and good one.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Unreal Debate

In the real world of political ads, McCain and his surrogates are shouting ugly insults at Barack Obama. He is accused of saying that US airstrikes have killed innocents. This is true and McCain said it, too. They say he was on a committee with a professor who used to be a Weatherman 40 years ago. And...?

How nonsensical these attacks are is demonstrated by the inability of McCain to repeat them to Obama's face.

What sort of allegation won't hold up in a debate? A flimsy one. One with the form of propaganda.

McCain's nasty personal attacks on Obama were apparently felt by his campaign to be inappropriate to a live appearance. They feared such smears would look mean in the mouth of a presidential aspirant.

But then why does it not look mean for McCain to "approve" the scurrilous smears?

Does he think we cannot see him?

Factcheck: McCain on Taliban

Fact checking the debate:

'MCCAIN: Now, let me just go back with you very briefly. We drove the Russians out with -- the Afghan freedom fighters drove the Russians out of Afghanistan, and then we made a most serious mistake. We washed our hands of Afghanistan. The Taliban came back in, Al Qaeda, we then had the situation that required us to conduct the Afghan war.'


The 'freedom fighters' included Gulbadin Hikmatyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani, i.e. what McCain now calls 'radical Islamic extremists.'

The US is now trying to kill Haqqani, who has joined up with the neo-Taliban attacking US troops.

The Reagan Jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan, supported by the fundamentalist military dictatorship of Zia ul-Haq, destabilized Pakistan and enormously expanded the bank accounts of 'freedom fighters' (i.e. mujahideen) like Hikmatyar. Hikmatyar's Hizb-i Islami is also attacking US troops.

Then McCain says that the US 'washed our hands of Afghanistan.' Actually George H.W. Bush made a deal with the Soviets that if they would depart Afghanistan and keep hands off, the US would cease supplying the mujahideen. "We" did not wash our hands of the country. The Republican Party led by its then president did a deal with the Soviet Communists.

Then McCain says that "the Taliban came back in." This is a very odd assertion. The Taliban were seminary students going to kindergarten and grade school as refugees in Pakistan at the time of the 1980s guerrilla war. They only emerged as a disciplined paramilitary group, with Pakistani help, in 1994. They did not 'come back in.' They arose and supplanted the mujahideen, though some mujahideen joined them.

So it was in part the very mujahideen or Muslim holy warriors for whom McCain voted more money from Congress in the 1980s that came to menace US interests in the late 1990s and who gave shelter to al-Qaeda.



The recent US air strikes on the tribal agencies in Pakistani territory have in some large part targeted the Haqqani network.

Aljazeera English reports on the US military presence in Afghanistan seven years later.