Suicide Bomber Kills 58 outside Munitions Plant; Zardari Candidate for President

The Tehrik-i Taliban responded to Pakistani military operations against it at Bajaur by sending a suicide bomber to attack workers leaving a munitions factory. Some 57 are dead and 70 wounded.

The Pakistan People's Party, the largest party in parliament, has reportedly decided to seek to get its de facto leader, Asaf Ali Zardari, elected as the new president. Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto, might be able to count on a sympathy vote in parliament.

Although the wrangling over who will be president is being reported in the US press as a crisis, I don't see it that way. It is, rather, an ordinary political process in which eventually there will be a winner who will garner enough votes to be elected. No one is brandishing a gun over all this to my knowledge. You might as well call the current presidential campaign in the US to determine who will succeed George W. Bush a crisis. There is an interim president,and if the process takes a while, it will just give the prime minister a chance to garner more executive power, which would be all to the good. In the aftermath, I hope that the special prerogatives of the presidency, rooted in martial law amendments of the 1980s, can finally be gotten rid of.

Aljazeera English has video on the process:

Baquba Raid Roils Sunni-Shiite Relations; Al-Maliki to Disband Awakening Councils

The raid by a special forces operation on the governor's HQ in Diyala province is being denounced as a rogue operation by the US military. Sunni figures have recently been targeted, raising suspicions that the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq was cleaning house, and suspected someone in the provincial government of having links to the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that PM Nuri al-Maliki's office is denying that there is any special forces unit reporting directly to the prime minister. Sunni parties, including the Iraqi Islamic Party [Muslim Brotherhood] of Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashimi raised suspicions that the raid on the governor's office in Baquba was al-Maliki's direct responsibility. Al-Maliki's spokesman admitted that there was a special unit dedicated to fighting terrorism, but said its line of command was within the regular military. Meanwhile, the ministry of defense insisted that the "Good Omens" military campaign of the Iraqi army against guerrilla groups in Diyala province would continue unabated and had scored successes.

Ibrahim Hasan Bajlan, the head of the Diyala provincial council, said that the raid on the governor's mansion, the killing of his secretary, and the arrest of a council member constituted an infringement against the legal legitimacy of the elected council.

Sam Parker of USIP guest blogs on what he thinks is really going on in Baquba. A conflict between the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (dominant Shiite fundamentalist party) and the Sunni Awakening Councils is part of it, he argues.

Qasim Ata, spokesman for the "Imposition of the Law" campaign in Baghdad, said Wednesday that Muthanna, the younger son of Adnan Dulaimi, a leader of the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front, had been arrested for involvement in murders and the ethnic cleansing of the al-Adl district of central Baghdad (i.e. of expelling Shiites from it).The Iraqi Accord Front said that the arrest threatened ethnic reconciliation efforts. Qasim said that the security forces making the arrest had done so on the basis of intelligence, and had not realized that the arrestee was Dulaimi's son.

McClatchy reports that the al-Maliki government is determined to disband the Sunni Arab Awakening Councils by November, and plans to arrest those who decline to give up their arms. The al-Maliki government views the councils as seedy guerrilla elements that must not be allowed to remained armed and cannot be trusted to join Iraqi security forces. The US created and pays for these Sunni Arab militias, which it used against the Qutbist vigilantes (radical fundamentalists). Some think that Iraq has another civil war in the offing.


The LAT looks at how female suicide bombers are recruited by the fundamentalist radicals.

The FT argues that Iraqi political divisions are preventing the oil industry there from getting back on track.

In contrast, Iraqi officials say that the global oil majors are greedy and are contributing to a humanitarian crisis with their unreasonable demands.

Lebanese PM Fuad Siniora visited Baghdad and got a favorable deal on Iraqi oil.

NYC has to pay $2 mn. for falsely arresting antiwar activists in spring of 2003, though the deal does not provide for any admission of guilt by city officials.

Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama

Zogby News Release reprinted by permission at IC:

Released: August 20, 2008

Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama

Obama loses ground among Dems, women, Catholics & even younger voters

UTICA, New York – As Russian tanks rolled into the Republic of Georgia and the presidential candidates met over the weekend in the first joint issues forum of the fall campaign, the latest polling includes drama almost as compelling - Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.

And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.

This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.

The poll shows Obama losing voters to McCain in groups where Obama had bigger leads a month ago, such as Democrats, women and younger voters. Obama also lost ground among Catholics and Southerners.

This table shows Obama’s loss of support between the July and August Reuters/Zogby polls among some significant sub-groups (the margin of error is greater for sub-groups than the sample as a whole).

>McCain’s surge follows a month in which he has aggressively portrayed Obama as an out-of-touch elitist and celebrity not prepared to be President. McCain also continues to accuse Obama of being willing to lose in Iraq in order to win the election. While Obama was on vacation last week, McCain took the spotlight, talking tough about Russia’s military action against the Republic of Georgia.

Pollster John Zogby: “Since Obama returned from his overseas trip, it seems like McCain has thrown all the punches. Clearly, the blows have landed. In recent days, Obama is fighting back, going after McCain on the economy, the issue voters care about most. McCain has changed the dynamic of the race heading into the two conventions. That puts more pressure on Obama to go to Denver and effectively define himself and McCain.”

Here is how voters rated issues most important to them in choosing a President: economy 47%, War in Iraq 12%, energy prices 8%, healthcare 7%, threat of attack on the U.S. 6%, immigration 5% and the environment 4%.

For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:

http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1328

(8/20/2008)



(8/20/2008)

Afghanistan in Crisis

All hell seems to be breaking loose in Afghanistan, at a time when most Western observers are focusing on the Georgia crisis. Ten French troops killed by 100 guerrillas. An attack on US troops in Khost, then a bombing there. It is 1982 all over again only it is NATO being targeted now.

AP has video:

Raid on Governor's office in Diyala; Seniora to Baghdad; Dulaimi's Son Arrested

Strange things happen in Iraq. On Tuesday, an unidentified Iraqi government security force, or at least people wearing such uniforms, attacked the Diyala provincial governor's headquarters, killed his secretary, and arrested a member of the Diyala Provincial Assembly. The local police fought back, and four were wounded. The attacking unit is said to be a special forces group that typically works closely with the US Army. One suspects that al-Maliki decided that some guerrilla activities are being run out of the governor's office.

The US denies knowing anything about it all. And al-Maliki has ordered an investigation (doesn't he know what his own troops are up to?)

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora is visiting Baghdad. Seniora will seek Iraqi petroleum for Lebanon at discounted prices. Behind the scenes, look for him to seek help from PM Nuri al-Maliki in dealing with the Shiite Hizbullah in Lebanon. Al-Maliki's Da'wa Party was important in forming Hizbullah and still has political contacts with it.

Another of Sunni Arab politician Adnan Dulaimi's sons has been arrested by US troops. Dulaimi's brand of Sunni fundamentalist politics (he is a leader of the Iraqi Accord Front) is suspected by some in Iraq of spilling over into sympathy for or activities on behalf of the 1920 Brigades, a Sunni Arab guerrilla group (some members, but not all of whom, have joined Awakening Councils).

Jane Arraf on the looming battle over the US-funded Sunni Arab "Awakening Councils", which many officials in the al-Maliki government think were a very bad idea.

Iraq will sign a $1.2 bn. service contract with China, for work on a small field that produces 90,000 barrels a day (Iraq produces on the order of 2.4 million barrels a day). The deal declines to offer China a share in profits, confining it to fees paid for work done. That the Iraqi oil ministry is playing this kind of hard ball has caused several Western oil majors to pull out of talks on such short term contracts, which are not very profitable and are mainly undertaking to make good relations with the host country.

The downside for Iraq of having oil.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

' Baghdad

Four gunmen men in a white sedan opened fire upon a checkpoint manned by National Police on Mohammed al-Qassim highway, central Baghdad at 1 p.m. killing one policeman, injuring three. The gunmen have been captured and taken into custody.

Nineveh

A parked car bomb targeted a Peshmerga patrol serving as Iraqi Army in the town of Tilkeif at 3 p.m. injuring five people including two Peshmerga and three civilians.

Kirkuk

A father (55) and son (20) were killed by light arms fire from a police patrol near the village of Daibaka, between Kirkuk and Erbil late Monday. The police are still investigating the incident.

Diyala

Police found 20 decomposed bodies buried in an orchard in Abu Tuma village, al-Khalis 15 km to the north of Baquba at 3.30 p.m.'

Don't miss Manan Ahmed on the Pakistan crisis.

Davidson: Privatizing Foreign Policy: The Road to Iran

Lawrence Davidson writes in a guest op-ed for IC:


Americans' penchant for paying little attention to their nation's foreign policies has powerful and disastrous effects on national politics and policy-making. Here are two important implications:

1. Popular disinterest in foreign affairs means that the vast majority of Americans abrogate their say in foreign policy formulation to a small number of citizens who do care about specific foreign policies and, constituting themselves as lobbies, are organized to make their influence felt. This can be seen clearly in the case of the invasion and occupation of Iraq. The war was planned and launched by small groups of Americans with specific, ideologically based, perceptions of the world. These ideologically motivated lobbies, whether ethnically oriented or neoconservative in nature, have little connection to the local concerns of the majority of Americans. Yet the consequences of their actions have impacted all of us.

2. Because most Americans pay little attention to foreign affairs they lack the knowledge necessary to accurately contextualize the situation when foreign events do seem to intrude upon their lives. The assertion that Iraq was in possession of weapons of mass destruction that were to be used on American targets was an example of such a situation. Having no objective knowledge to assess this claim, Americans had to rely on the information given to them by others, most of the time government spokesmen and media “pundits.” The average citizen had no way of knowing if these alleged experts did or did not know what they were talking about, and if they had reasons to present a biased picture of events. However, the consistent supplying of what turned out to be less than objective information to millions of citizens who were otherwise ignorant, created a “thought collective” capable of moving the entire national population to war. Millions of lives have been lost or ruined as a consequence. This story is not a unique one. It has happened before and could soon happen again with the alleged threatening nation now being Iran.

Iran is a nation that has never invaded another country in modern times. Its civilian nuclear research activities are legal under international law and the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency has reported no evidence of nuclear weapons development. Yet, the same lobbies and politicians who led the United States into Iraq now insist that Iran is also worthy of sanctions and attack. Once again, the vast majority of Americans have no major sources of information on this issue apart from those which have already failed them in the case of Iraq. Nor are our elected officials behaving in ways that might prevent a compounding of the disaster of Iraq with another disaster in Iran. Why is this so?

Foreign Policy Inc.: Privatizing America's National Interest by Lawrence Davidson explains in detail the dangers of localism, ignorance, special interests, and misinformation when it comes to formulating the nation's foreign policies.

McCain's Mansions and the Real Elitist

BraveNewFilms on McCain's mansions and his elitism.

Cole in Salon: The Fall of Bush's Man in Pakistan; Dawn: Bush was Last Holdout

My column is out in Salon.com:

"The fall of Bush's man in Pakistan:" (Despite Pervez Musharraf's despotism and double-dealing with U.S. enemies, George W. Bush, John McCain and the GOP embraced him to the bitter end.)

Excerpt:

' It is a measure of the Bush administration's broken foreign policy that the departure of Pervez Musharraf, the corrupt, longtime military dictator of Pakistan, is provoking fears in Washington of "instability." Despite Bush's warm embrace, Musharraf gutted the rule of law in Pakistan over the previous year and a half, including sacking its Supreme Court. He attempted to do away with press freedom, failed to provide security for campaigning politicians and strove to postpone elections indefinitely.

The Bush administration has made a regular practice of undermining democracy in places where local politics don't play out to its liking, and in that, at least, Musharraf was a true partner. But stability derives not from a tyrannical brake on popular aspirations; it derives from the free play of the political process. Musharraf's resignation from office, in fact, marks Pakistan's first chance for a decent political future since 1977. '

Read the whole thing.

Meanwhile, Dawn (Karachi) explains how George W. Bush was convinced to let Musharraf go. The article says:

Bush was the last holdout supporting Musharraf in Washington, long after Rice and Cheney had concluded he was not viable

PM Yousef Raza Gilani's recent trip to Washington was in large part aimed at convincing Bush and others that the dictator had to go. "The prime minister took a team of 'Musharraf experts' with him to the luncheon and they played a key role in persuading Mr Bush to stop supporting the Pakistani leader."

U.S. Ambassador Anne W. Patterson "argued that if Washington continued supporting Mr Musharraf it would end up stoking massive anti-American feelings in Pakistan."

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen made three trips to Pakistan and engaged in intensive discussions with his opposite number, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, receiving assurances that without Musharraf the Pakistani military would remain committed to the fight against the neo-Taliban and al-Qaeda.

Pakistani Ambassador to Washington, Husain Haqqani, expertly worked Congress and the Senate, as well as think tanks, trying to convince them that Pakistan would not be "unstable" without Musharraf.

(People in Washington are so funny. Musharraf has been like a one man hurricane in Pakistan for the last year and a half; he was the source of most of its instability.)

But Bush wanted assurances that Musharraf would be granted legal immunity and be secure, either staying in Pakistan or going abroad. He enlisted the help of Britain and Saudi Arabia: "The British sent their former ambassador in Islamabad, Mark Lyall Grant, to Pakistan and the Saudis sent their intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz to negotiate the terms for Mr Musharraf's departure." The Saudis also put pressure on former PM Nawaz Sharif, leader of the Muslim League (N), to tone down his rhetoric (Sharif was in exile in Saudi Arabia for years and is close to its elite).

Once Bush was convinced Musharraf had to step down, the super-majority in the Pakistani parliament began moving against him.

I am a little surprised to discover that Bush was the last holdout, not Cheney. If the man really does have no common sense and is the ultimate decision-maker, that would clarify what has gone wrong for the last 7 years!

Kirkuk a Powderkeg: NYT; Ramadi Bombing Targets Police

Kurdish control of Kirkuk creates a powder keg in Iraq, the NYT explains this morning:

' it demonstrates that despite a recent decline in violence, Iraq’s unsettled ethnic and regional discord could still upend directives emanating from Baghdad and destabilize large swaths of the country — or even set off a civil war. . .

Kurdish authority is visible everywhere in the city. In addition to the provincial government and command of the police, the Kurds control the Asaish, the feared undercover security service that works with the American military and, according to Asaish commanders, United States intelligence agencies. '

A suicide bombing in Ramadi has left at least 7 policemen killed and more wounded.

Gareth Porter is skeptical about that AP story alleging Iran-trained hit squads in south Iraq. Me, I didn't bother with it. Iran trained the Badr Corps, which is now the backbone of Prime Minister al-Maliki's security forces, and the US cheered when Badr-dominated forces asserted themselves in Basra and Amara. So Iranian training is only sometimes bad?

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

' Baghdad

Five people (3 policemen and 2 civilians) were injured by a roadside bomb in al Riwad intersection in Mansour neighborhood in west Baghdad around 9:00 a.m.

Around 10:00 a.m. Gunmen opened their machineguns fire targeting the car of Faris Jabir Thahir; a member in Shaheed al Mihrab organization (one of the organizations in ISCI ) in Zafaraniyah town in southeast Baghdad. Faris was killed at one and his wife was injured seriously.

Around 10:30, an IED exploded targeting an American convoy in al Ordin intersection (Jordan intersection) in Yarmouk neighborhood in west Baghdad. Nine Iraqi were injured including three policemen. No American casualties were reported.

Three people were injured (2 policemen and a civilian) by a roadside bomb near the national theater in Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad around 1:00 p.m.

Basra

A director of an election center and his deputy were killed and a companion was inured when gunmen attacked them while they were going to work in Bahadriyah area south of Basra on Monday morning. The election commission confirmed the incident.

Kirkuk

Gunmen killed Raheem Thyab al Bayati; one of the leaders of Sahwa south of Tuz city north of Baghdad around 2:00 p.m.'

Musharraf Resigns

Al-Jazeera International on the career of Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf, who just stepped down to avoid impeachment.

Fox News: 12 Year Old Girl Tells the Truth about Georgia

Ooops. Fox News Interviews an Ossetian-American 12-year-old girl who thanks Russian troops for saving her from Georgian aggression.

But Fox News was obviously not happy with the way the interview went.

Gee,that isn't that master narrative in the US military-information complex.



Hat tip: Technorati.com.

(Of course the Russians contravened international law, too, but Saakashvili's attack on the Ossetians was not exactly saintly).

Bombing Kills 15, Including AC Leader in Baghdad; Al-Sadr Calls for Blood Pledge of Holy Struggle Against Occupation; Seniora to Baghdad

A suicide bomber in Baghdad killed 15 and wounded 29 in al-Adhamiya on Sunday. This neighborhood is what's left of the Sunni enclave on the eastern side of the Tigris, and the bombing appears to have targeted a local Awakening Council leader, Faruq al-Ubaidi, who was killed. The US-financed Awakening Councils and the Qutbist vigilantes are struggling over control of Sunni neighborhoods. The bombing took place near the revered Abu Hanifa mosque, and will therefore have emotional resonances for Sunnis.

Kurdish forces killed one demonstrator and wounded 4 when the fired on protestors in Suran north of Irbil demanding water services.

Iraq wants to put 6 Blackwater guards on trial for the Nisoor Square shootings.

Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr has called upon Iraqis to sign a personal pledge in blood of struggle (jihad) against the foreign military occupation of Iraq. Although he urges them to oppose it "militarily and culturally," he currently has a ceasefire with the US, and this pledge campaign does not appear to threaten it. It seems to me that the pledges are a way for Muqtada to continue to burnish his anti-imperialist credentials even though he has actually made a deal with Washington. The campaign does, however, demonstrate that for the US to try to maintain long-term bases in Iraq would generate no end of trouble and indeed, much more trouble than it would be worth. Iraq is not South Korea, and isn't afraid of its neighbors as South Korea and Japan are afraid of China (and used to be afraid of Russia). The US only gets long term bases when it is perceived to be in the host country's benefit or when the host country is extremely weak. Neither will be true in Iraq.

Al-Zaman gives some of the text of Al-Sadr's sermon.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora will visit Baghdad this week, seeking petroleum at reduced prices for his country from Iraq. This visit follows on that of King Abdullah II of Jordan, which involved a similar request. The rise in oil prices (which are still high compared to only a couple of years ago) has given Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki sudden clout in the region. It is clear what Jordan and Lebanon want from him. The question is, what does he want from them? So far the quid pro quos are not being reported, unless it is just greater recognition and re-integration into the Arab political system. For instance, Saudi Arabia still declines to let al-Maliki visit Riyadh, apparently because of his enmity toward the Sunni Arab Awakening Councils, which are in part a Saudi project. Seniora and his backer Saad Hariri are close to Saudi Arabia and presumably will be intermediaries for al-Maliki in back channel communications to the Kingdom.

The oil majors are largely giving up on negotiating short-term contracts with the Iraqi oil ministry. The contracts aren't that lucrative, and were just seen as ways of establishing a relationship, but the oil ministry played hard ball and so they could not come to terms.

Three quarters of Iraqi business people support the new investment law.

The Middle East News Agency reports:

' Cairo, 17 August: A second batch of Iraqi refugees seeking to go home left Egypt for Iraq on Sunday (17 August) at the Iraqi government's expenses and on board the presidential plane of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

The group included 240 Iraqis, an official from Iraqi embassy in Cairo said while seeing them off at the airport.

The first batch of Iraqi refugees in Egypt flew home to Iraq Monday (11 August). It comprised 250 Iraqis who fled after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. This flight will be followed by other weekly flights with the aim of facilitating the process for displaced Iraqis to return home, Iraq has promised.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated the number of Iraqi refugees who fled the country after the US-led invasion in 2003 at about 4.4 million, including 2.2 million displaced inside Iraq and 2.2 million in neighbouring countries, mainly in Syria, Jordan and Egypt.'

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

' Baghdad

- Gunmen threw a grenade at a car carrying a television crew for Afaq, a local T.V station funded by the ruling Dawaa party, as they were about to enter their headquarters in Baghdad’s Alawi al Hilla neighborhood. A reporter, cameraman and driver were seriously injured and taken to a nearby hospital for treatment.

- Around 8 pm, a suicide bomber riding a bicycle targeted one of the Sahwa leaders in Adhemiyah neighborhood(north Baghdad). Farouq Abu Omar the Sahwa leader who was the target was killed at once. Also five other people were killed and 13 others were injured including two of his sons who were guarding the father who had just finished his prayers in Abu Hanifa shrine.

- Police found 1 dead body today in Saidiyah neighborhood(south Baghdad).

Salahuddin

- Around 6 pm, a roadside bomb detonated near Balad petrol station in Balad town(south of Tikrit). 6 people were injured.

Basra

- Gunmen killed a civilian who refused to give them his own sedan car when they stopped him in Hakimiyah neighborhood in Basra city.'

Aljazeera International on the Kirkuk Crisis

The struggle over the oil city of Kirkuk has so far derailed provincial elections in Iraq.

Aljazeera International on the Kirkuk crisis (part 1)




Aljazeera International on the Kirkuk crisis (part 2)



The USG Open Source Center translates an item from the Kurdish Press

' Iraqi Kurdish MP says USA not a real ally
Hawlati
Saturday, August 16, 2008
OSC Summary

Iraqi Kurdish MP says USA not a real ally

Iraqi Kurdish independent MP Mahmud Uthman of the Kurdistan Alliance has said that the USA is pushing the Kurds to make a concession on the Kirkuk issue, Hawlati privately-owned fortnightly newspaper reported on 6 August.

The paper quoted Uthman as saying: "The USA is pushing the Kurds to make a concession on the Kirkuk issue." He added: "The USA backs the other parties and pushes the Kurds when the Kurds are having a difficult time. The USA is a friend of the Kurds when it is in the US's own interest; otherwise, it has never backed the Kurdish demands."

The paper also quoted Kurdish political expert Salar Besara as saying: "The Kurds are one of the naive nations that have been betrayed throughout history." He added: "The USA betrayed the Kurds up to the end of the Kurdish September Revolution (refers to early 1960s to 1975, when the revolution capitulated to the Algeria agreement between Iran and Iraq) while the USA was regarded as an ally."

Besara added: "The USA is very much in need of the Kurdish peaceful areas in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurds are neither against the USA nor do they support terrorism. Therefore, the USA does not want to provoke them. However, the current conditions depend on the US's long and short-term strategies as well as Iraq's internal situation."

(Description of Source: Al-Sulaymaniyah Hawlati in Sorani Kurdish -- weekly independent newspaper) '

Bombers hit Karbala Pilgrims for Third Straight Day

Bombers struck at Shiite pilgrims for the third straight day on Sunday, killing as many as six new victims. This despite extensive security measures in the holy city of Karbala.

The city was divided into eight districts, with checkpoints and body searches. Teams of female inspectors checked women for bombs. US and Iraqi aircraft did continual aerial surveillance. This according to the Arabic press.

AFP also reports that in Baghdad's Jadid district, Iraqi forces arrested the head of an Awakening Council for involvement in terrorism and conducted a raid on guerrillas so that 250 displaced persons could return to the neighborhood.

My guess is that this translates that at least some members of the Sunni Awakening Council had earlier been involved in ethnically cleansing Shiites, and that the al-Maliki government is now cracking down on it so that some Shiite families can safely return. The US views the Awakening Councils as valuable anti-al-Qaeda paramilitaries willing to take American money to fight the Qutbist vigilantes.

The Justice Department is going to probe the notorious Nisur Square shooting by Blackwater security guards last September in Baghdad that left 17 civilians dead, and for which, in the aftermath, there did not seem to be any real security justification.

There have reportedly been serious tensions between the Kurdish Peshmerga paramilitary in Diyala Province and the Iraqi army. There are conflicting reports on whether the Peshmerga will withdraw. The Kurdistan Regional Government claims the northern part of Diyala for itself because of its Kurdish population, though the province as a whole has an Arab majority.

Mark Kukis of Time explains why Iraq is still oil poor.

The majority of Britain's 4,000 combat troops in southern Iraq will be withdrawn by next May. Along with the loss of 2,000 Georgian troops in Wasit Province, these withdrawals will affect the drawn-down of US troops originally planned for this year.

Abu Muqawamah on fixing the Iraqi elections: "On Dr. iRack's recent Iraq voyage, many U.S. commanders, coalition officials, and Iraqis expressed growing concerns that the "Powers That Be" (Dawa, ISCI, the IIP, PUK, and KDP) will use their monopoly on official power--including their dominance of governors, provincial councils, and the Iraqi Security forces--to tilt the provincial elections in their favor against the "Powers That Aren't" (the Sadrists, Awakening groups, independents, and secularists). This is problematic since the entire goal of the elections is to co-opt the latter into the political process, and, by giving them a stake in the system and peaceful means of sharing power, help solidify the security gains from the surge."

Obama interview in Stars and Stripes.