Al-Maliki Backs Security Pact; Muqtada Calls for 'Universal Demonstration', Threatens Guerrilla Strikes; Sistani Warns he May Intervene;

McClatchy reports that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has decided to back the draft security agreement between Iraq and the Bush administration. The LAT stresses what al-Maliki did not get from the Americans everything he demanded, especially with regard to exposure of US troops to prosecution in Iraqi courts for crimes committed in Iraq.

AP quoted an aide to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of many Iraqi Shiites, as saying that if he felt the agreement infringed on Iraqi sovereignty, he would "directly intervene." Other aides have said that Sistani would be inclined to accept the agreement if parliament did, but it is not clear that they were transmitting a message from him so much as expressing their impressions of his stance (which may have been incorrect). Sistani was a major force in challenging the original draft proposed by Bush, which left Iraq little real sovereignty.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that an unnamed high official in Iraq said that he expected the cabinet to pass the agreement on Sunday or Monday, since it was supported by the ministers with "sovereignty portfolios" (Defense, Interior, Foreign Affairs, and Finance), as well as by the Kurdistan Alliance, and the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni). He said that the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, had recently begun stressing that his position (earlier critical) was "flexible." The NYT is less sure that the Kurdistan Alliance will back the agreement, which apparently has language in it about central government control that makes some of them fear it can be used as an instrument to reduce Kurdish semi-autonomy.

al-Hayat said that Muqtada al-Sadr defiantly rejected the agreement and talked in a statement read out by Salah al-Ubaidi at the Kufa Mosque about the "Brigade of the Judgment Day" that he said would fight the American military if it decided to remain in Iraq. He called for a unified (Shiite and Sunni) Friday prayer session in the middle of Baghdad to be followed by a demonstration condemning the agreement. Muqtada said that the new special force would only turn its weapons on foreign troops (i.e. it would not challenge the Iraqi military itself, which is largely loyal to al-Maliki). Muqtada's statement said, "If the American forces remain, I will reinforce the resisters, especially the brigades subsumed under the banner of the Judgment Day." He called on the "special groups" or "Bands of the Eternal Truth" (which the US charges are Iran-backed) to "enlist behind this mujahid banner." (Although some observers said he threatened to create a new fighting unit, in fact he has talked this way before and seems to be referring in code to existing forces, which have temporarily stood down. It strikes me that he might be trying to get control of the "special groups" by promising them a sectorial, militant role. But it is rumored that Iran now feels that the best way to get the US out is to cease attacking its troops, so Muqtada, who is a guest of Iran at the moment, may be bluffing.)

He also called for all Friday prayer congregations in the capital to hold a joint mega-ceremony next Friday in the midst of Baghdad "to intertwine the efforts of all Muslims-- Sunni and Shiite-- for the purpose of ensuring the failure of the agreement,which aims at selling out Iraq." He called on everyone to join a peaceful demonstration after Friday prayers. He added that he he hoped all Muslim countries would support the protest Friday prayer and demonstration by holding ones like it in their own countries.

Sadr's campaign against the security agreement may be a bid to reinvigorate his movement, which as the LAT pointed out, is struggling for relevance now that it has turned to nonviolent methods within Iraqi politics.

Iraq's national security adviser, Muwaffaq al-Rubaie, expressed confidence on Friday that British troops will be out of Iraq by the end of 2009, and that US troops will withdraw by 2011, as a result of the security agreements.

Private security firm Blackwater is under investigation for having sent forbidden weapons to iraq,

Cleric Sadr al-Din Qubanchi, who is a member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq(ISCI), said in his Friday prayers sermon in Najaf that he hoped the High Electoral Commission had carefully vetted candidates in the upcoming provincial elections, since otherwise there was a danger of former Baathists returning to power. He was referring to Sunni-majority provinces such as al-Anbar, Ninevah, Salahuddin and Diyala, and was revealing the reason for which the ISCI of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim opposed the holding of provincial elections for so long. ISCI now controls Diyala Province, which it certainly will lose control of if the Sunni Arab voters come out for the elections on January 31. Since most capable Sunni Arabs in Iraq were either Baathists or had Baathist relatives, the fear of a resurgent Baathism has functioned to keep Sunni Arabs down politically, except for the Muslim Brotherhood analogues who favor fundamentalism and so were at odds with the secular, nationalist Baath Party.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the deputy governor of Najaf, Abdul Husain Abtan, has announced that flights will begin from the new (Iranian-built) Najaf airport on November 16. The US military has pledged support to Iraqi soldiers who will guard the airport. The first destination to be served is internal, the city of Irbil, the capital of the Kurdisan Regional Government. Soon thereafter, flights will begin to TEhran, Beirut, and Dubai. Najaf is a holy city for Shiites in particular and the new airport will over time bring millions of pilgrims to Iraq from Iran, Lebanon, the Gulf, and South Asia.

Niqash has more on the "New Najaf".

Turkish Prime Minister Rejep Tayyip Erdogan said at the Brookings Institution that the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan were much worse than the US gave out. He criticized the American tendency to throw money at problems,saying that Turkey was wiser in providing services, building schools, etc. Turkey's parliament declined to allow US troops to transit Anatolia on the way to northern Iraq in 2003, but Turkey has troops in Afghanistan as part of the NATO contingent.

Erdogan warned President-Elect Obama against a hasty withdrawal from Iraq, saying

' "law enforcement has not yet matured" and local administration is also not ready to assume responsibility. Transitioning from a "totalitarian mentality is not an easy task," he said '

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Baghdadophobia.

My paper is available on the web in pdf form: ""Marsh Arab Rebellion: Grievance, Mafias and Militias in Iraq," Fourth Wadie Jwaideh Memorial Lecture, (Bloomington, IN: Department of Near Eastern Languages and Cultures, Indiana University, 2008).

Kurt Lancaster looks at the corporate media's dependence on government sources of news in a case study of depictions of the British withdrawal from Basra in 2007, contrasting them to Informed Comment, the Christian Science Monitor and the BBC.
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Glantz: Veterans Day, 2008 : Tasks for the Obama Administration

Aaron Glantz writes in a guest op-ed for IC:

On Veterans Day, we as a nation pause to honor those who have served their country. Problem is the Bush Administration doesn’t want us to know about their sacrifice. From refusing to allow the press to photograph flag-draped coffins of the dead, to covering up the suicides of veterans after they come home, the officials in Washington who lead us to war have done everything they can to hide it’s terrible cost.

This must end in the new Administration of President Barack Obama. As President, he must send a message to the bureaucrats who crunch numbers at the Pentagon and the Department of Veterans Affairs that the American people deserve to hear the true costs of the war in Iraq.

This includes:

*High profile monthly Pentagon press conferences, where ALL casualty figures are announced to the public. Under President Bush, the Pentagon has only released these statistics in response to Freedom of Information Act requests from journalists and veterans groups. As a result, very few Americans realize that more than 75,000 US soldiers have been medically evacuated from Iraq and Afghanistan for treatment in Germany. (You can find these statistics online on an internal website of the Defense Manpower Data Center)

*High profile monthly press conferences from the Department of Veterans Affairs announcing how many Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have filed disability claims as a result of their service (over 300,000 as of October 2nd), and how many have gone to the VA to treat their war wounds (currently close to 350,000, about 150,000 of whom went to the VA for help with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder or other service-connected mental injuries). Like the Pentagon casualty statistics, these numbers only came to light because a veterans group, Veterans for Common Sense, demanded them under the Freedom of Information Act.

*An end to the culture of intimidation at the VA. Under President Bush, VA officials who have told the truth about the sorry state of veterans health care have been fired. In 2006, Dr. Frances Murphy was working as the under secretary for health policy coordination at the VA when she told the medical journal Psychiatric News that “veterans who are struggling with the aftermath of severe trauma but do not have equitable and timely access to quality mental healthcare." When the services were available, Dr. Murphy asserted that, "waiting lists render that care virtually inaccessible." Days later, Dr. Murphy was sent packing. This too must end. We need dedicated public servants like Frances Murphy to help returning veterans rebuild their lives.

*Finally, a new Obama Administration must end the era of obfuscating the number of innocent civilians killed in our occupations. Remember back it was back in 2002, shortly after the fall of the Taliban that General Tommy Franks first brushed off reporters questions with the curt statement “We don’t do body counts.” Six years later, researchers writing in the prestigious British medical journal, the Lancet, estimate as many as a million Iraqis have died in this war. Even if the truth is only half that number the catastrophe is tremendous. The American people deserve a President who’s not afraid to try to quantify the human toll among those we’ve “liberated.”

None of these changes would cost our country any money, and none of them would immediately end the war or make the world a safer place. But being open and honest with the American people would make us all more well informed and, hopefully snap us out of our collective apathy.

Regardless, each of the statistics above represent information we deserve to know as citizens. How can we even begin to honor our veterans, if we don’t even track their sacrifice?

Aaron Glantz reported extensively as an unembedded journalist in Iraq and has been covering the stories of American veterans since his return. He is author of the upcoming book The War Comes Home: Washington’s Battle Against America’s Veterans (UC Press)
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Ramadi Bombings Kill 8; Shiite Clerics Condemn Draft Security Agreement

Two suicide bombers struck at a village near Ramadi in al-Anbar Province on Saturday, killing 8 and wounding 27.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that officials in charge of "Operation Impose Law and Order" in Baghdad admit that the security situation in the capital has deteriorated and that there is a spike in the number and severity of attacks.

The increasing use of 'sticky bombs' is among the major concerns of security forces.

It is not surprising that Sadrist preachers condemned the proposed security pact between the al-Maliki government and the Bush administration in their Friday prayers sermons. It is much more significant that Sadr al-Din al-Qubanji of Najaf thundered against it. He represents the views of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, led by cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. If ISCI opposes the agreement, it has no chance whatever of passing through parliament. I think the AFP article linked above is wrong to speculate that Sunni Arabs are reluctant to see the US go because they fear Shiite and Iranian hegemony in the aftermath. Some may feel that way; I think they are a minority. The last polling I saw put it at 9% of Sunnis who wanted the US to stick around. As reported last week, VP Tariq al-Hashimi, head of the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Islamic Party, has called for a national referendum on the security agreement. I read that call as hostility on his part toward it, since it likely could not pass a national vote.

Bloomberg reports that the Iraqi political elite is torn over whether to conclude the agreement with Bush or just to wait for better terms from Obama.

Iraq's Defense Minister, Lt. Gen. Abdul Qadir Ubaydi, said Saturday that "In the event of U.S. troops pulling out of Iraq, the army is ready to take responsibility for providing security in the country . . the Americans have handed over control of most of Iraq's provinces to Iraq's security forces." He said that the handover shows that the Iraqi army can now provide order.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has suggested some constitutional amendments that would grant the federal government in Baghdad wider prerogatives, especially with regard to security and foreign policy. Al-Maliki wants the parliamentary commission on constitutional revision to take up these suggestions. He says that the 2005 constitution was written at a time when there were still fears that authoritarian government could return to Iraq, but that those fears had now receded and it was clear that the constitution actually shackles "the present and the future" (i.e. by decentralizing too much and leaving the central government too weak.) Al-Maliki also attacked the sectarian and ethnic quota system by which the government informally functions,saying that it might have been necessary at one stage but now must be jettisoned.

Al-Hayat also reports that Haydar al-`Ibadi, a leader of the Da'wa (Islamic Call) Party said that the door to negotiations with the US over the security agreement has still not been closed, despite what the US Ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, has said. Al-Hayat says that the members of parliament with whom it has spoken think it is highly unlikely even the revised security agreement can be approved by parliament during this calendar year.

Dhafir al-`Ani, a member of parliament from the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front, accused the Da'wa Party, led by PM Nuri al-Maliki, of monopolizing negotiations with Washington at a time when most Iraqi parties had ceased being part of the negotiations. He warned that there would be popular disturbances if the agreement is signed while the Da'wa is dominating and monpolizing the process.

Some 70 percent of Iraqis say that they want the US out of Iraq in 6 months to a year.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

'Baghdad

A roadside bomb targeted civilians in al-Qahira neighbourhood, northern Baghdad at around 10 a.m. Saturday killing one and injuring seven others.

A roadside bomb targeted a U.S. military convoy in Talbiyah, eastern Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in Amil neighbourhood, southwestern Baghdad, at 8.30 p.m. injuring two civilians and one soldier.

One unidentified body was found in Obaidi neighbourhood, Saturday by Iraqi police.

Kirkuk

A gunman fired at Iraqi security forces and Sahwa forces in al-Multaqa district, to the west of Kirkuk city and injured one soldier. The forces returned fire and killed the gunman.

Anbar

A suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest targeted al-Jazeera checkpoint, 20 km to the northeast of Ramadi city at 2.30 p.m. Saturday, injuring three female inspectors with the police force and four policemen. About fifteen minutes later and after a crowd had gathered; a suicide car bomb wanted to get into the crowd but was detected by the police who opened fire at the car which detonated at a distance killing eight civilians, injuring ten.

Mosul

A roadside bomb targeted Iraqi security forces in Mosul killing one soldier, injuring another.'

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Can Obama Get out of Iraq in 16 Months? Bombings Shake Baghdad

The daily bombings in Baghdad that appear to signal a resurgence of the guerrilla movement continued on Thursday, with three bombings in the capital killing 5 persons and wounding dozens.

Time asks whether President Obama will stick to his 16-month timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. The article quotes. Gen.Ray Odierno and Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari arguing for a more gradual withdrawal. The problem is that both have strong views on this matter growing out of political commitments. I'd be interested in what Iraqi analysts think.

British troops will be out of Iraq by summer, 2009, according to Sky News. It was also announced that small contingents from Romania and Bulgaria would leave by the end of December.

The US has returned an amended security agreement to the Iraqi government, having accepted some of its further demands, including Iraqi inspection of US mail. The US would go no further on Iraqi jurisdiction over off-duty US troops (Iraq wanted Iraqi authorities to decide whether a US soldier would be remanded to Iraqi custody once charged. Bush apparently made the concessions,including the one on mail inspections, because he is desperate to get a status of forces agreement concluded before he leaves office, as a way of cementing US and Iraqi relations. But McClatchy reveals that the Iraqis are calling the agreement a "withdrawal agreement."

Alissa J. Rubin of the NYT argues, "Now the Iraqis appear to be feeling less pressure from Iran, perhaps because the Iranians are less worried that an Obama government will try to force a regime change in their country."

LAT blog says that Al-Zaman is unconvinced that Iraq will be a high priority for President Obama, whereas Ahmad Chalabi's al-Mu'tamar is encouraged that the Iraqis now have an American administration todeal with that wants to withdraw from Iraq.

A controversy has broken out in Iraq in the wake of the passage of a law limiting polygamy in Iraqi Kurdistan. Some women activists want a similar limitation throughout Iraq, citing the increased incidence of men taking multiple wives in Iraq. Other women oppose the measure on the grounds that the Qur'an allows a man up to four wives. (In fact, the Qur'an conditions taking more than one wife on a man's ability to do justice to each spouse and expresses skepticism that the condition will be met. Some Iraqi commentators have wondered whether any such measure could pass parliament, given the dominance of the Shiite fundamentalist parties.

Andrew Bacevich sees the end of an arrogant evangelical foreign policy and the beginning of a more humble approach based on a Calvinist, Niebuhr-influenced realization of the sinful nature of human beings.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

- Around 7:30 am two roadside bombs targeted Sahwa members in Sheikh Omar neighborhood (north Baghdad). Two people were killed (including one Sahwa member) and five others were injured (including three Sahwa members).

- Around 8 am an adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car near Hamza intersection in Sadr city (east Baghdad). Three civilians were wounded.

- Around 10 am a roadside bomb targeted a bus for the Baghdad municipality employees near the Ghilani shrine and mosque in Bab Al-Sharji(downtown Baghdad). One person was killed and 5 others were wounded.

- Around 8 pm a bomb which was put in a rubbish bin in Shalal market in Shaab neighborhood (east Baghdad). Five people were injured.

Mosul

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in Nahrwan neighborhood in Mosul city. Two soldiers were wounded.

- Police found one dead body for a girl in Karama neighborhood in Mosul city.

Kirkuk

- Police found a dead body in Sayada village on the way from Kirkuk to Taza ( south Kirkuk).'

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"Everybody with Obama" in Middle East; Afghanistan, Iraq Challenges to Confront new President

Mark MacKinnon writes that everybody in the Middle East is with Obama:

'There's yearning across the Middle East - at least outside of Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan - for a new face in the White House, and John McCain doesn't fit the bill. He's seen both by the governments of this region, as well as the legendary "Arab street," as too close to the policies of George W. Bush. And the eight years the latter spent as the most powerful person in the world are viewed here as an unmitigated disaster. And so the Arab world is ready to embrace the fresh-faced senator from Illinois . . . They hope a President Obama will be less unblinkingly pro-Israel, more willing than Mr. Bush to talk to those who disagree with him, and less likely to use military force to assert America's broad but declining influence in this region.'

On the other hand, some of the welcome of Obama comes from an expectation that he will pursue military conflict with some regional forces, as Reuters writes:

' Afghans welcomed Barack Obama's U.S. election victory on Wednesday, saying they looked forward to a greater focus on the war with Taliban insurgents that has killed at least 4,000 people this year alone.'

The election of Barack Obama will give Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki more maneuvering room in his quest of a timetable for US withdrawal from Iraq, argues Damien McElroy in Baghdad.

Meanwhile, one of Iraq's vice presidents, Sunni Arab politician Tariq al-Hashimi, has proposed that the draft security agreement between Iraq and the US be put to a national referendum. (Personally, I doubt it would ever pass; the Iraqis just want the US out).

Ned Parker of the LAT reports that at least 16 persons were killed and over 30 wounded in bombings and attacks in Sadr City, east Baghdad, on Tuesday.

Shell and its Iraqi partner will have a monopoly on natural gas in Basra, says a local newspaper (h/t to Iraqoilreport.com).

Ben Turner, an Iraq vet and blogger, turns the page on the Bush years.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

' Baghdad

Three people from one family ( a police officer and his two sons) were injured by an adhesive bomb that was stuck to their car in the central Baghdad neighborhood of Karrada around 7:15 a.m.

A policeman was killed and three others were inured when gunmen opened fire on a police patrol in al Ghadeer neighborhood in east Baghdad around 7:30 a.m.

A member of the guards of the head of the property dispute committee was killed and seven people were injured (4 other guards and 3 civilians) by an adhesive bomb that was stuck to a four-wheel drive in the Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad around 12 p.m.

Around 12 p.m. an adhesive bomb that was stuck to a civilian car detonated near Ibn al Haitham hospital in Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad. No casualties reported. The car was damaged.

Around 12:15 p.m. a civilian was killed and five others were injured in al Sinaa Street in downtown Baghdad by an adhesive bomb that was stuck to a civilian car that belonged to a policeman.

Four civilians were inured and eight others were injured by a roadside bomb in al Qahira neighborhood in northeast Baghdad around 1 p.m.

Seven civilians were killed and 18 others were wounded by a bomb that was planted under a vendor's stand inside al Mashtal bus station in east Baghdad around 2 p.m.

Gunmen assassinated a Lieutenant Colonel working for the ministry of interior affairs inside his car on al Qanat Street in east Baghdad around 2:15 p.m.

Kirkuk

Around 11 a.m. a roadside bomb blew up near one of the offices of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan's party in the Nasr area in downtown Kirkuk. No casualties were reported.

Nineveh

A patrol of the Iraqi army found two unidentified bodies in al Sehaji area in west Mosul city. The bodies were shot in the head and the chest.

Salahuddin

Iraqi police in Salahuddin province says that a civilian was killed and three others were injured when an American vehicle hit them while they were putting up an advertisement in Mkeshifah area; 15 miles south of Tikrit city. US military said that an accident occurred on Tuesday morning between a vehicle for the Coalition Forces and a civilian car carrying two Iraqi civilians in the Tikrit area. One Iraqi civilian died at the scene while the second died of his wounds when he was being treated.'

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Bombings Target Police, Kill 10; Minorities Awarded Seats in Provincial Councils

A series of bombings in Baghdad and Baquba on Monday killed 10 persons and wounded over 30, including 10 policemen. The powerful blast in Baquba destroyed 22 automobiles. The NYT spoke of the attacks as a wave of violence These bombings, which continue to occur regularly in Iraq, announced that the Sunni Arab guerrillas still have not been made a political offer by the new order in Baghdad with which they feel they can live.

McClatchy describes the confidence of Obama and the feistiness of McCain on the eve of the election.

The Iraqi parliament finally passed a supplement to the provincial elections law that awarded a quota of seats to religious minorities such as Christians and Yazidis. The minorities were given fewer seats than the United Nations had recommended, in part because Arab nationalists feared they might vote with the Kurds against Arab interests in the north. Some Christian leaders are calling the new law an "insult" because it offers them fewer seats than they feel entitled to.

US sources deny that they have accepted most changes to the draft security agreement proposed by the Iraqi parliament. Iraqi spokesmen said Monday that the US had acquiesced in 3 of 5 major changes, but this assertion was not confirmed in Washington, where officials simply spoke of further meetings this week.

Iraqis are still thirsting for clean water to drink.

Adil E. Shamoo suggests that the US give up plans for the mother of all embassies in Baghdad and instead donate the enormous campus for use as a university.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday.

' Baghdad

- A bomb detonated near the house of the under secretary of the oil ministry in Atifiyah neighborhood (north Baghdad). The secretary, Sahib Salman, was injured with one of his guards .

- Two roadside bombs targeted the homicide department near the Tahriyat intersection in Karrada neighborhood (downtown Baghdad).The two IEDs detonated in sequence, one was near a concrete fence and one near a tea vendor. Six people were killed and 20 others were wounded, including ten policemen.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a white Lumina sedanin Zauna neighborhood (downtown Baghdad). Two people were injured including the driver.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a Hyundai sedan on Palestine street (east Baghdad). Three people were wounded including the driver.

- A roadside bomb targeted an army check point under the highway bridge in Jamia'a neighborhood. Three people were wounded including one soldier.

- A gunman opened fire using a silencer on a man, killing him instantly in Zafaraniyah neighborhood (east Baghdad).

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Raghiba Khatoon neighborhood (north Baghdad). Six people were wounded including three policemen.

- Police found one dead body in Habibiyah neighborhood in Risfa bank in Baghdad today.

Mosul

- On Sunday night gunmen killed a man and his wife in Baaj (about 20 miles south of Mosul).

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in the 17th of July neighborhood in Mosul city. Two people were injured.

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in the Intisar neighborhood downtown Mosul city. Two soldiers were killed and two others were wounded.

Diyala

- A roadside bomb targeted the park of the governorate building in Baquba city. Nine people were injured including three policemen.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Deputy Oil Minister Wounded; Iraq Likely to tie down Next President

Guerrillas deployed a bomb to wound Iraq's deputy oil minister on Monday morning.

Steven R. Hurst at AP correctly argues that if there is no Status of Forces Agreement between Iraq and the US by January 1, the resulting military and diplomatic mess could end up consuming the new president. For US troops to operate without an internationally accepted legal framework would expose them to prosecution for their military actions in Iraq.

The looming disaster is one reason that even the grossly incompetent Bush administration is at least considering a Plan B. That is to go back to the UN Security Council for an extension of its mandate for US and allied troops to act in Iraq.

Bob Dreyfuss at The Nation wonders whether, if Obama is elected, he will get US troops out of Iraq on a short timetable.

The Iraqi government, having taken over responsibility for the 100,000 members of the Sunni Arab Awakening Councils or 'Sons of Iraq,' plans to reduce fighters' salaries from $300 a month (what the US had paid them) to only $250 a month. Informed observers predict that many of the Awakening members might well just resign. The big fear is that the councils could turn into anti-government Sunni guerrilla groups if Pm Nuri al-Maliki does no handle them well.

An Awakening tribal leader was killed by a bombing in Diyala Province on Sunday evening.

Al-Hayat writing in Arabic says that a political storm has broken out in Iraq over remarks by Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani that Kurdistan might offer the US military bases if the Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq as a whole gets stalled.

The Iraqi government has pledged $900 thousand to help Christians displaced by political violence from Mosul.


McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

' Baghdad

- A roadside bomb detonated near a bus station in Mashtal neighborhood (east Baghdad). Two people were injured.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Bab Al-Muatham neighborhood (downtown Baghdad). No casualties were reported, but a police vehicle was damaged.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Wihda district of Karrada neighborhood (downtown Baghdad). Two people were injured including a policeman.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Fudhailiyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). One policeman was killed and three others were wounded.

- Police found 2 dead bodies in Baghdad neighborhoods today: one was found in Saidiyah in Karkh bank (south Baghdad) and one was found in Zayuna in Rusafa bank (east Baghdad).

Diyala

- Gunmen attacked a house in Mansouriyah in the town of Moqdadiyah (northeast of Baquba). The gunmen were wearing the Iraqi army uniform. They killed a woman and two of her daughters. Two other daughters were injured.

- A roadside bomb targeted a Sahwa leader in Buhriz (3 miles south of Baquba). The leader was killed with five others who were with him in his car (two women and three children).

Kirkuk

- A roadside bomb detonated in Hawija district (west of Kirkuk). Three people were injured.

- Gunmen kidnapped a girl of about to 14 years in Aysalana village in the Hawija district (west of Kirkuk).

- Gunmen wearing the Iraqi army uniform kidnapped three Kurdish truck drivers near the Sleiman Beck check point (south of Kirkuk).

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car in Kirkuk city. The driver of the car, who works in an Iraqi military base, was injured.

- Two children were killed and two others were injured by a deserted bomb as it detonated when they were playing nearby in Khadhra neighborhood in downtown Kirkuk city.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq to Share Security Plan with Neighbors; Syria may cut Diploatic ties with Iraq

After the Iraqi government receives a response from the US on five changes to the draft security agreement proposed by the cabinet of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, al-Maliki says he will share the text with Iraq's neighbors, so as to reassure them about the continued presence (until 2011) of US troops. Presumably Iran is the neighbor most concerned by the Status of Forces agreement.

Some reports say that Syria is severing diplomatic ties with Iraq because of the US incursion into Syrian territory. The reestablishment of a Syrian embassy in Baghdad after decades of estrangement between the two countries had been hailed in recent weeks as a giant step forward for regional diplomacy.

The flight of Nissim Jabouri, the Sunni Arab governor of Tal Afar, to the US raises the question of whether the Shiite fundamentalist government in Baghdad can incorporate Sunni Arabs into the structures of the new state.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani's office is denying that the spritual leader ever ok'd the security agreement as long as parliament signed off on it.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

74% of US Voters Hold Iraq an Important Issue; Security Agreement in Doubt; Syria Closes US Embassy for a Day

Three quarters of American voters say that the Iraq War is a very important or extremely important issue for them. I talk around the country on Iraq and I also find widespread concern about and interest in the subject. A smart television news program that gave renewed attention to Iraq instead of ignoring it would likely be rewarded with a ratings spike.

It is dawning on the Bush administration that it will not likely get a security agreement with the Iraqi government by January 1. In the absence of such an agreement or an extension of the UN Security Council mandate, US troop actions in Iraq could be considered war crimes in international law.

Syria temporarily closed down the US embassy in Damascus ahead of a large demonstration that the government feared might turn violent. Syria has also announced that it will reduce its troop presence on the border with Iraq. That is, Damascus is reducing its policing of the fundamentalist vigilantes who infiltrate Iraq from Syria, as a protest against the US attack on a Syrian village that left 8 dead. Washington officials have said that they had moved against an important smuggler of the fundamentalist vigilantes into Iraq.

An Iraqi opposition parliamentarian has alleged that the Iraqi government maintains 420 secret detention centers where large numbers of prisoners are held with no legal protections.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Sadr Movement says that 20,000 of its members are being kept in prison with no due process.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday.

' Baghdad

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Fudhailiyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). Five people were injured including two policemen.

- A roadside bomb targeted an American patrol in Tobchi (Al-Salam) neighborhood (northwest Baghdad) .One civilian was killed and five others were wounded. No US casualties reported, police said. The U.S. military said that one person suffered minor injuries and no one was killed.

- Police found one dead body in Ur neighborhood (east Baghdad) today.

Diyala

- Gunmen opened fire on Sahwa members in Swghaa village near Buhriz (3 miles south of Baquba). Three Sahwa members were wounded.

Salahuddin

- A car bomb targeted a police patrol in Abu Ajeel village (3 miles east of Tikrit). One policeman was injured. '

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Iraqis Want Strict Withdrawal Timetable; $6 Bn. Spent on Private Security Guards by Bush

Remember how John McCain insisted to Wolf Blitzer that the security pact being negotiated by Iraq and the Bush administration talks about the withdrawal of US troops as "conditions-based" rather than tied to a strict timetable? That was not true of the draft, which called for US troops out by 2011 but did contain language in a different section that allowed for them to stay under certain conditions. The Iraqis now want that clause removed and the Baghdad government wants an iron-clad guarantee of US troops being out by 2011. The recent US military raid into neighboring Syria may have stiffened Iraqi resolve in this regard. If McCain were elected, which McClatchy argues is still entirely possible, he'd have rocky relations with Iraq if he continued to oppose a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops.

Bush has thrown $6 billion in government money to private security firms operating in Iraq. There have also been Congressional hearings on this issue. Why wouldn't you use GIs to guard State Department personnel?

Some of those private security guards, along with US troops, man border stations where they collect biometric data on military-age Iraqi and Iranian men, which they do not share with the Iraqi government.

Rosa Brooks on the booby traps Bush is leaving behind for the next president.

A Turkish official believes that substantial steps toward peace among Israelis, Palestinians and Syrians would have important spillover effects on Iraq. He implied that you have to get Bush out of the White House before any such positive developments are likely to take place. In the meantime, Mark MacKinnon argues, Syrian leader Bashar al-Asad has decided to turn the other cheek in response to the US raid into Syrian territory, preferring to continue with initiatives to improve relations with Israel and with the West.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraqi Shiites, cautioned on Wednesday that the security agreement between Iraq and the US must not infringe on Iraqi sovereignty.

The US military turned over security duties in Wasit Province to Iraqi forces on Wednesday. All Shiite-majority provinces are now under Iraqi army control. The US continues to have primacy in five provinces including Baghdad itself (also Diyala, Salahuddin, Ninevah and Kirkuk). These provinces continue to see significant social violence and Diyala, Salahuddin and Ninevah have Sunni Arab majorities.

The last of the South Korean troops, which had largely provided health services in Kurdistan, will be out of Iraq in December.

The International Organization for Migration urges that the 2 million Iraqi refugees in nearby neighboring countries be given support, not forced back to Iraq. Most of the refugees have been traumatized, seen a family member kidnapped, been personally threatened, or seen their old neighborhood ethnically cleansed and their property expropriated, so that they are disinclined to return or have no place to return to. Violence remains endemic in some of the places they have fled, including Baghdad.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Wednesday:

' Baghdad

- A roadside bomb targeted a bus of the ministry of education's employees in Ur neighborhood (east Baghdad). Two employees were killed and six others were wounded. - A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol near the Nadia ice cream shop on Palestine Street (east Baghdad). Five people were killed and seventeen others were injured, including the head of the traffic police department in Nahda neighborhood (downtown Baghdad).

Diyala

- Gunmen attacked the house of the Dahalka Sahwa leader in Dahalka village in Balad Ruz, about 27 miles east of Baquba.They killed three people, the father of the Sahwa leader, his daughter and her husband. Fourteen others were wounded, including 7 men and 7 women. - A roadside bomb detonated in the Baquba central market downtown Baquba city. Sixteen people were wounded including one a girl who died later.

Mosul

- A car bomb targeted a police patrol in Yarmouk neighborhood in downtown Mosul city. One policeman was killed.

- A sniper killed an Iraqi soldier in Al-Tanak neighborhood in Mosul city around noon.'

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Iraq Condemns Syria Raid; Seeks Renegotiation of Security Accord

Iraqi government spokesman Ali Dabbagh on Tuesday backed off his earlier support for the US raid into Syria. He said that the Iraqi constitution forbids third parties to use Iraq as a staging ground for attacks on other countries. It is not clear whether Dabbagh was just issuing a pro forma condemnation or whether the Shiite government in Baghdad has gotten new information suggesting that the raid was problematic in some way. Ordinarily the al-Maliki government is delighted to see Sunni fundamentalist guerrillas targeted.

Daniel Levy has further insights on the US raid into Syria.

Aljazeera English provides amateur video of the US raid into Syria, along with Syrian official reaction.



Turkey launched air strikes against Kurdish guerrillas of the PKK based in northern Iraq.

McClatchy reports that the Iraqi cabinet has made some changes in the draft security agreement with the Bush administration. US officials are quoted as saying it is unlikely Washington will accept the changes. The cabinet members in Baghdad are convinced that without these changes, parliament will reject the agreement. One new provision gives Iraq authorities the right to decide whether a US GI accused of wrong-doing was on- or off-duty at the time. (On-duty US soldiers would have immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts; off-duty ones would not).

The Red Cross warns of a growing humanitarian crisis in Iraq, much of which lacks clean water.

Iraqi trash may, when burned, be releasing toxic elements, harming the public.

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US: Raid Targetted al-Qaeda Facilitator; May Complicate Security Agreement with Iraq

US government sources maintained on Monday that the cross-border raid into Syria that left 8 dead had succeeded in killing "Abu al-Ghadiyah" (Badran al-Mazidi) of Mosul, a member of the fundamentalist vigilante group of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (originally called "Monotheism and Holy War" but more recently "The Islamic State of Iraq"). Al-Zarqawi was killed in 2006. US intelligence fingered al-Mazidi as a major facilitator for networks of fundamentalist vigilantes who were infiltrating into Iraq from Syria. The administration allegation is that it struck when it did because it got especially good information on al-Mazidi's exact whereabouts.

Apparently Syria declined to move against al-Mazidi, leading to charges by the US military that the ruling Baath Party in Syria was actively harboring al-Qaeda. That charge does not seem plausible to me, since the Alawis at the top of the government are terrified of Sunni fundamentalism and are vulnerable to being overthrown by it. (Sunnis are some 80 percent of Syrians; a folk Shiite group,the Alawis, are at the pinnacle of the government). The US is always over-estimating how powerful and efficient these ramshackle, personalistic regimes in the Middle East are, and attributing things to deliberate plotting that are likely just the result of incompetence or cowardice. Washington also tends to over-estimate the importance of individual leaders such as al-Zarqawi and al-Mazidi. Mostly they are fairly easily replaced. It is not as though they have been through a military academy or anything. When al-Zarqawi was killed, it changed absolutely nothing with regard to violence in Iraq. Others than Mazidi can smuggle North African volunteers into Iraq.

I still think the timing of the raid had to do with the US presidential election, and that it is likely Bush and Cheney want to make sure Iraq stays off the front pages for McCain's sake, since otherwise his talk of "victory" might seem hollow. It is also possible that the White House was offering the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad a carrot in hopes it would smooth the passage of the draft security agreement.

In fact, some Iraqi politicians said that the raid would complicate negotiations on the security agreement. Certainly, Iran's opposition will have stiffened. Kurdish parliamentarian Mahmud Osman charged that the US acted without Iraqi government knowledge. Iraqis are touchy about the idea of the US using Iraq as a launching pad for attacking neighboring countries. Even Ali Dabbagh, spokesman for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who approved of the American action, said that it would not be allowed after the first of the year.

NYT reports that al-Maliki has been mainly using Arab police and soldiers in his security campaign in Mosul, drawing down Kurdish troops of the Iraqi Army. Kurds had dominated Ninevah Province because Sunni Arabs boycotted the Jan. 2005 provincial elections, but they are a minority. Kurdistan nationalists wish to annex some areas of Ninevah to the Kurdistan Regional Government. There is growing tension between Arabs and Kurds in the north, reflected in the increasingly difficult relations between al-Maliki and Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani.

The oil city of Kirkuk is another arena of Kurdish-Arab competition and potential violence.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that the Shiite grand ayatollahs in the holy city of Najaf are signalling to Iraqis that they may vote for whatever party they choose, religious or secular, so long as they judge it competent in solving the country's problems. In past elections the top Shiite clerics had urged voters to cast their ballots for the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shiite fundamentalist parties. That coalition seems to be breaking up, and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has been deeply disappointed in its record in power. Sistani had all along been opposed to the Iranian model of clerical rule, but he had in the past favored the Iraqi religious Right. If al-Sharq al-Awsat is accurately reporting his views, this move toward pragmatism and willingness to see lay Shiites vote for secular parties marks a further evolution of his thought.

The US-built wastewater plant in Falluja that has been a costly failure, to the tune of $100 mn. and sewage in the streets, according to LAT.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

' Baghdad

- An American squad raided the New Baghdad and Baladiyat neighborhoods, Iraqi police said, with no more details. The coalition reply was, “Coalition forces killed five criminals after a small arms fire attack in Baghdad's New Baghdad security district, Oct. 27. At about 1:20 a.m., Multi-National Division - Baghdad Soldiers were attacked with small-arms fire at a joint security station. The Soldiers were able to identify those responsible for the attack and returned fire. A total of five attackers were killed with no U.S.casualties.

-A roadside bomb detonated in Ameen neighborhood (east Baghdad). Three people were killed and five others were injured. Also two civilian cars were damaged.

- Around noon a roadside bomb detonated near the Kindi hospital intersection (northeast Baghdad). Two people were wounded.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car at Khilani intersection (downtown Baghdad). Two people were killed and seven others were wounded.

- Police found one dead body in Mashtal neighborhood in east Baghdad today.

Mosul

- Gunmen killed a civilian near the jewelry shops in downtown Mosul.

- Gunmen opened fire on an Iraqi army patrol in Al-Jazair neighborhood (downtown Mosul). Two soldiers were wounded.

- A suicide car bomber targeted an Iraqi police patrol in Borsa neighborhood in Mosul. One policeman was killed and two others were wounded.

Dohuk

- Turkish artillery bombed some villages in the northeast of Dohuk in Kurdistan region before noon, Peshmerga sources, the security forces in the area, said. Also they said that the Turkish had bombed the same area last night, too. No casualties or damages were reported.'

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Helman: US has all but Committed to Leaving Iraq

Ambassador Gerald B. Helman writes:

Absent the unexpected, it is unlikely that a security agreement in the form of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between Iraq and the US will be in place before our Presidential elections and almost as unlikely before the end of the year when the present UN Security Council mandate runs out. That mandate, in the form of a resolution renewed annually, provides the terms and conditions under which the US has been able to occupy and seek to pacify and rebuild Iraq politically. In practice, it has given the US a free hand as the occupying power. To that extent, it has severely limited Iraq’s sovereignty and has legitimized its maintenance by the US in a tutelary status. The negotiations to replace the UN mandate with a type of SOFA has been underway for much of this year and from what little is known of its contents the US has agreed to initiate military operations only with Iraqi assent; to withdraw its forces from Iraq’s cities by June 2009 and from Iraq entirely by the end of 2011.

While language is included to suggest that a complete withdrawal might be conditions-based by mutual agreement, it seems to be a sop given by the Maliki government to the Bush administration. Even with such seemingly anodyne conditionality, the provision has proven to be unacceptable to many in Iraq’s parliament. Similarly unacceptable to Iraqi politicians seems to be the provisions regarding legal jurisdiction over offences committed by US troops, which would place them under US jurisdiction while on base or on authorized military operations off-base. With senior US officials indicating that the US limit has been reached on further concessions, an impasse seems now to exist.

If the news reports on the draft SOFA’s main provisions are generally accurate, it is hard to understand what the fight is all about. The US appears to have conceded on all major issues and is left with little alternative to withdrawal:

--after January 1, the US will undertake military operations only with Iraqi consent;

--all US non-military contract employees will be subject to Iraqi law. (The US military operation has become so dependent on contract employees that it’s hard to understand how the US could function if US contract employees are pulled out by their employers because of their exposure to arrest by a legal system they do not understand and understandably fear.)

--all Iraqis apprehended by US military must be turned over to Iraq authorities.

--by June 2009, all US military must evacuate the cities and return to fixed bases, from which they can operate only with Iraq’s permission. The practical effect of this provision is that whatever the merits of General Petreus’s strategy of deploying forces to cities and neighborhoods to protect the population and to sponsor civil affairs and local self-help activities, it will be history. Thus the surge will also be no more, together with the many soldiers and special forces needed to support it..

--By the end of 2011, all US combat forces will be withdrawn unless the two sides agree that circumstances require them to stay.

We know little about the precise language of the draft or anything regarding what must be an extensive agreement covering issues such as jurisdiction over air space; limits on operations; import-export of material ranging from foodstuffs to sophisticated weaponry; designation and inventorying of current bases including elaborate airbases and their eventual disposition (including buildings and equipment) following drawdown and departure; and much more. Further, are there provisions for residual forces, for whatever purpose, authorization for ongoing training and military assistance programs, civil construction and technical assistance programs, and the like?

Taking all into account, and accepting the reality that present efforts to replace the Security Council resolution with a bilateral SOFA is badly stalled and may abort, how should the US and Iraq proceed? From the US standpoint, some organic instrument is needed to legitimize and help manage our continuing activities in Iraq and more especially in the context of our departure over the next few years. From the standpoint of Iraq, the restoration of its sovereignty would be critical not only to its international standing but in bringing about the kind of internal political accommodation so desperately wanting. Popular perception of tutelage and occupation and dependency helps make Iraq a failed state. The restoration of sovereignty in fact as well as theory—essentially, the recognition of Iraq’s adulthood--may well be central to encouraging the kind of national political accommodation the US says it has been seeking.

With this seeming stalemate, any way forward needs to take into account a number of practical realities central to both countries:

--The US will shortly be electing a new President who will be responsible to the American public for the US position in the Middle East and the implementation of a SOFA in that context.

--Similarly, Iraq will be holding critical regional elections early next year which could well significantly alter the political balance within the country, bring new constituencies and new political actors on the scene and perhaps result in a new government. It is that government which should be responsible for implementation of the SOFA and associated withdrawal, indeed, for the future direction of Iraq.

--Gaining time needed to reach agreement should not be a problem. If Iraq, with Arab support, asks for an extension of the current mandate for six months, the Security Council will comply. The Russians, for example, will be only too happy to see the US army bogged down in Iraq for as long as possible.

With a continuing Security Council resolution providing legitimacy, the US and Iraq can proceed to implement the 99% of the SOFA that appears to be agreed upon and which in any event would be compatible with a 2011 (or 2010) withdrawal, with or without conditionality. The matter of jurisdiction over criminal behavior by US troops off base and off duty can perhaps be dealt with by third-part arbitration by the UN. The new US and Iraqi governments can then limit the SOFA to housekeeping matters and concentrate on fundamentally political matters that don’t belong in a SOFA anyway, looking toward a future US-Iraqi relationship. These might include:

--a formal termination of hostilities between the two countries, whether by treaty or executive agreement, supported by a Congressional Joint Resolution that terminates the authorization to conduct hostilities adopted by Congress in 2003. This might be accompanied by a US declaration formally terminating the occupation regime. Nothing would more authoritatively reestablish Iraqi de jure sovereignty as well as its psychological sovereignty and sense of nationhood. (The bestowal of sovereignty several years ago by Jerry Bremer amounted to a formal, but ineffective gesture, given the reality of Iraq.)

--With a now sovereign Iraq, the two governments can negotiate agreements defining their future political and military relations. The latter might include cooperation in combating terrorism, whether by using US forces stationed in Iraq or available over-the horizon; US overflight and landing rights; ongoing military assistance programs involving training and weapons sales. Special provision might be needed for the protection of the US diplomatic establishment by a reduction in size and the according of diplomatic immunity for a protection force assigned to the Embassy and a generous periphery thereof.

A new US Administration might also bear in mind that the successful termination of the war in Iraq could well contribute to the opening of discussions with Iran, leading to the normalization of relations.

Helman "was United States Ambassador to the European Office of the United Nations from 1979 through 1981."

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Obama and McCain on Iraq

Although the US public trusts Sen. Barack Obama to handle the economy far more than it does Sen. John McCain, the two are viewed as equally able with regard to handling Iraq and the 'war on terrorism.' Of course, given that the public in earlier years had tended to give the edge to Republicans on security issues, that Obama has drawn even on these questions is actually a big advance.

Aljazeera English looks at the differences between Obama and McCain on Iraq.

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Sunni Party Cuts off US in Iraq;

The Iraqi Islamic Party, led by Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, said it was suspending further high-level contact with the United States on Saturday. The Sunni fundamentalist group is angry about a raid in Fallujah in which US troops killed a member of the IIP. The US military contends that the man opened fire on the American soldiers and that they found weapons and weapon-making materiel in his house, saying that he was a leader of Hamas al-Iraq, an offshoot of the 1920 Revolution Brigades. The IIP is thought by some to be the civilian wing of this guerrilla group. The IIP seems especially angry that its political rivals in the Awakening Council movement, who will contest provincial elections in late January, have informed to the Americans on IIP operatives. The IIP won al-Anbar Province in 2005 with only 2% of the electorate casting ballots, but the contest in January will be more heated. The IIP maintains that the US military is abetting the Awakening Councils in taking al-Anbar.

The Iraqi Islamic Party also opposes the draft security agreement that was negotiated between PM Nuri al-Maliki's office and the Iraqi government. The IIP-sponsored "Baghdad Satellite Channel" carried a sermon on Friday by pro-IIP cleric Hashim al-Ta'i in which he said (Open Source Center translation),

'"If we go back in memory to the early 1990s when Iraq was the target of the aircraft of America and the states that supported it and when Baghdad and the major Iraqi cities in particular and all other targets in Iraq in general were the target of these aircraft, and if we go back in memory to those difficult days in the history of Iraq, we will find that America has destroyed all infrastructures and killed and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.Furthermore, on the pretext of the former regime, on the pretext of this regime's alliance with Al-Qa'ida, and on the pretext of the weapons of mass destruction, it placed Iraq and the Iraqis under a stifling, unjust, and tough siege to the point where the Iraqis ate fodder. Since that date, Iraqi brain drain has been continuing and the Iraqis have continued to leave Iraq."

He adds: "America's policy toward Iraq led to the death of more than 2 million children during the time of the siege. The war has also created strange kinds of cancer and deformed births." He says: "This is the bitter harvest America madeus reap in our wounded country. Today, an agreement is offered to the Iraqis.So, what will the Iraqis say? Through my contacts with the people and their letters and recommendations, and based on what I hear, there is a unanimous Iraqi voice which says: No to an agreement that consolidates the occupation and prolongs its life; no to an agreement that consolidates sectarianism and racism and fragments the country into groups and cantons; no to an agreement that mortgages the country and its resources for many decades; no to an agreement that does not include a timetable for the withdrawal of the occupiers from our land and that seeks to build military bases that would perhaps stay for tens of years in Iraq to threaten Iraq and the neighboring states together; and no to an agreement, which does not include equal opportunities." '

Ta'i's sentiments appear to be widespread in Iraq, right down to the exaggerated estimate (it is usually put at 500,000, not 2 million) for the number of Iraqi children that were killed by US and UN sanctions (the interdiction of chlorine made it impossible to do water purification, which in turn caused infant and toddler deaths from gastrointestinal diseases and consequent dehydration). Yep, the Neocons called that one, about Iraqi gratitude to the US, right on the money, they did.

On the other hand, many secular-minded Sunni Arab Iraqis (and they are still the majority) are said to approve of the security pact between the US and Iraq, on the grounds that it will limit Iranian dominance of Iraq. The "al-Arab" newspaper of Qatar reported on Friday that (Open Source Center translation):

'The latest poll Al-Arab carried out about the Iraqi-US security agreement included 270 Sunni Iraqis in the cities of Al-Fallujah, Al-Ramadi, and Baghdad. Eighty percent of these Iraqis suggested that that the security agreement will end the Iranian influence or at least limit it, and that Iraq will be able to return to the Arab ranks again without Iranian control. They also insisted that the agreement with the United States will have limited damage, unlike the Iranian influence. Therefore, they support the agreement and work to make it successful.

Of the participants, 4 percent checked the "We do not know whether it is good or bad for Iraq" box. Some see that the advantages or disadvantages of the agreement are still unknown due to the vague agreement articles and for not announcing the agreement clearly so far. They noted that some media sources mentioned that there are points which will remain secret and unannounced in that agreement.

Sixteen percent of the participants rejected the agreement referring to the Holy Koranic verse: "O ye who believe! Take not the Jews and the Christians for your friends and protectors" (Partial Koranic verse; Al-Ma'idah, 5:51). Despite that the majority of those who expressed their rejection are affiliated to religious parties, particularly the Salafist sect; they find their votes getting lost and unheard among Iraqi Sunnis due to what they called the advantages of the agreement for not leaving Iraq to a fanatic Shiite authority or an Iranian remote or close control.

Shaykh Ahmad al-Hadithi, a leading figure of the Iraqi Islamic Party, told Al-Arab that the percentage was not surprising at all because Sunnis, as well as Christians, and the sons of the other religions fear the current Iranian influence in Iraq.

Dr Abd-al-Wahhab Salim, from the Desert Research Center in Al-Anbar, said that Sunni Iraqis desire a secular system, not religious. They see that the United States invaded them militarily, but the Iranian invasion was ideological, social, and religious, which for their country is more dangerous and horrible than the military invasion.'

On another front, Kazakhstan is withdrawing its troops from Iraq. John C. K. Daly argues that Astana was in part attempting to please Russia while not damaging its new ties to NATO. Thus, Kazakhstan maintained that its troops had done their duty and were now going home.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

' Baghdad

- Around 8 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army vehicle in Al Shaab neighborhood killing one civilian man was passing by the site and injured four Iraqi army soldiers.

- Around noon, gunmen from Mahdi army militia clashed with Iraqi national police soldiers in Al Shaab neighborhood. The clash lasted more than an hour. One civilian was killed and five others were injured. . .

- Around 4 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army vehicle in Palestine St. killing two soldiers and injuring three others.

- Iraqi police found two dead bodies throughout Baghdad, one in Husseiniyah, one in Dura.

Nineveh

- Gunmen killed two policemen while they were off duty in Al Sinaa area in Mosul.'

Reuters adds:

' . . . BAGHDAD - A bomb stuck to a vehicle carrying an Iraqi army brigadier general killed the driver and wounded the general and a civilian in the central Karrada district, police said . . .

* KIRKUK - A body of a women was found in the southwestern industrial district of the city of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

* JURF AL-SAKHER - One man was wounded when a speeding car opened fire on a checkpoint of U.S.-backed patrols in Jurf al-Sakher, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR KIRKUK - Iraqi police found the body of a man with signs of torture just south of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

MOSUL - A roadside bomb wounded two women when it struck an Iraqi army vehicle in eastern Mosul, north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a civilian in a drive-by shooting in eastern Mosul, north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR KUT - Iraqi police arrested one gunman and wounded another in clashes on Friday just south of Kut, 150 km (95 miles) southeast of Baghdad, Police Major Aziz Latif said.

NEAR KUT - Police said they found a dead body inside an abandoned house just south of Kut on Friday. The dead individual appeared to have been tortured and shot. . .

FALLUJA - Gunmen killed an imam of a mosque and another man in a drive-by shooting northeast of Falluja, police said. . .

FALLUJA - Iraqi soldiers killed a suspected militant and arrested another one, believed to be responsible for training insurgents in producing and placing roadside bombs, on Friday in Falluja, 50 km (30 miles) west of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.'

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Al-Maliki Will Not Sign Security Agreement

McClatchy reports that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has reneged on the security agreement that his office negotiated with the Bush administration, and now says he will not sign it and will not submit it to parliament. Instead, it is likely that Iraq will go back to the United Nations Security Council for a further mandate of six months to a year for the multi-national forces.


Aljazeera English reports on the security pact.



Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that the Christian representative in parliament is acusing a unit of the Iraq army,which has significant numbers of Kurds, of being behind attack on Christians in Mosul that have forced thousands of Christians to flee instability.

Mark MacKinnon profiles the American University in Iraq (Sulaymaniya),

Despite all the hype about it being calm now, Iraq faces significant violence:

'Last month, 98 Iraqi policemen were killed. On about two days out of every three, a bomb killed two or more people. Over all, those bombings killed 164 people and wounded 366 others. These and other attacks killed 500 Iraqi civilians, about 17 a day. '

While the Bush administration was using Abu Nidal's presence in Baghdad to argue that the Baath government was dirty with terrorists, in fact the CIA was running him as an agent.

The headline says it all: "Mentally Unstable Soldiers Redoplyed to Iraq."
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13 Killed, 24 Wounded in Attack on Minister; More Christians Flee Mosul Sadrist Parliamentarians on Strike against Security Agreement

A car bomber attacked a convoy he thought was conveying the Iraqi labor minister, Mahmoud al Radhi on Thursday, killing 13 persons and wounding 24, according to McClatchy. Al Radhi is a member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a fundamentalist Shiite party close to the ayatollahs in Tehran. Four months ago a similar attempt was made on the life of the minister of electricity, Karim Wahid, an independent member of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. Earlier this month Sadrist member of parliament Salih al-`Ukayli was killed by a roadside bomb in Sadr City.

The most likely suspect in a bombing like that is a Sunni Arab guerrilla cell, either Baathist or fundamentalist vigilante. The bombing shows that while the monthly death totals for civilians have fallen, Iraq is still a very violent place.

In Mosul, there has been further violence against Christians; thousands of Christians have fled the city to nearby Christian villages as a result of attacks on them in this northern, largely Sunni Arab metropolis of 1.7 million.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Sadr Movement in Parliament has begun a boycott of proceedings to protest the draft security agreement negotiated by the government of PM Nuri al-Maliki. Al-Hayat also chronicles the failure of the visit to Iran of Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani, who was seeking to reassure his Iranian colleagues about the status of forces agreement. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Speaker of the House Ali Larijani, and Expediency Council head Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani all denounced the proposed agreement as a humiliation for Iraq and an infringement against it sovereignty. Larijani compared it to the agreement between the Shah of Iran and the US over troops and bases in Iran, which restricted GIs from being tried in Iranian courts. Resentments over immunity for US troops in Iran was one impetus for the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

WaPo visits Sadr City and finds a) that the Mahdi Army is still mosty in charge there and b) they are increasingly angry with the government and can barely prevent locals from attacking government forces. The only thing wrong with this perceptive (and courageous) piece is that it does not mention the ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis of West Baghdad as a major factor in the decline of civilian deaths.

Despite decreased monthly deaths, Iraqis are haunted by fear and distrust, making it difficult for shopkeepers to flourish, according to Tina Susman.

Iraqi forces took over security duties in the southern, Shiite province of Hilla. The northern reaches of this province had been Sunni Arab, but it may be that they, like so many Sunni Arabs in Baghdad, have been ethnically cleansed.

Sociologist Michael Schwartz surveys the wreckage that is Iraq. Shwartz is author of "War without End: The Iraq War in Context, just out.

The Iraq Oil Report paint just as dismal a picture.

A lot of Iraqi children have been out of school so long that it will be difficult for them to re-enter the educational system. They are a growing Lost Generation.

On the political front, US commanders are hopeful that provincial elections in Iraq will bring to power more popular, representative, and capable provincial officials, hastening the ability of the US military to withdraw from al-Anbar province.

Ahem. I said in April, 2007:

' Talks require a negotiating partner. The first step in Iraq must therefore be holding provincial elections. In the first and only such elections, held in January 2005, the Sunni Arab parties declined to participate. Provincial governments in Sunni-majority provinces are thus uniformly unrepresentative, and sometimes in the hands of fundamentalist Shiites, as in Diyala. A newly elected provincial Sunni Arab political class could stand in for the guerrilla groups in talks, just as Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, did in Northern Ireland.'

Iraq's irrigation systems are in a dreadful state of disrepair, and it has been hit with a severe drought: "Ministry figures provided to Reuters on Thursday showed that Iraq expects to import 2.8 million tonnes of wheat in 2008/09, up 40 percent from the previous year. Wheat production is expected to drop 27 percent to 1.6 million tonnes."
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Dabbagh Rejects Bush Pressure Tactics on Iraq; Al-Haeri Declares Security Agreement Illicit; Irrelevancy of Al-Qaeda on McCain

Iraqi government spokesman Ali Dabbagh reacted sharply on Wednesday to comments of US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen last Tuesday that Iraqis did not have much time to pass the agreement and might not understand the full consequences of failure to do so. Dabbagh said, "It is not correct to force Iraqis into making a choice and it is not appropriate to talk with the Iraqis in this way."

Spence Ackerman points out that McCain is attempting to spin the draft security agreement as "conditions based," but that it is not in fact. Rather the agreement stipulates US troops out by 2011 barring major unforeseen factors. I would add that not only is the agreement not very conditions based, but precisely because it does have some of that language it is not viable in Iraq, where most parliamentarians want to tinker with it to make sure the withdrawal deadline is absolute rather than conditioned on the security situation.

One way or another, As of Jan. 1, US troops will not be able to act at will in Iraq but rather will have to get assent from Iraqi authorities for campaigns.

Grand Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri issued a formal religious ruling or fatwa denouncing the proposed security pact between the Iraqi government and the US as humiliating and infringing Iraqi national sovereignty. (The tradition of Muslim clerical thinking is hostile to the political subordination of Muslims to non-Muslims.)

Al-Haeri tends to be followed by members of the Sadr Movement, the leader of which is Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, who is too junior to issue fatwas. Al-Haeri is sometimes called Iraq's "fifth Grand Ayatollah," and is a rival to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Najaf. Al-Haeri declines to live in Iraq under US occupation, and

The Arabic text of al-Haeri's statement says:

"We have learned of the pressures exerted by the Occupation forces on the Iraqi government for the purpose of obtaining its assent to a humiliating agreement termed "a long term security agreement," which leads to Iraq's loss of its national sovereignty, and its acceptance of humiliation and abasement."

He added, "Whoso aids the Occupiers in achieving what they desire, God shall not forgive his sins, nor will the oppressed Iraqi nation go easy on him, norwill the blessed centers of Islamic learning nor any Muslim with a conscience who believes in the Judgment Day."

As for the pro-al-Qaeda internet bulletin board that urged support for McCain because he is hotheaded and would keep large US troop contingents in Iraq and Afghanistan, I would not pay much attention to it. It was a posting from one guy, so we don't know if the leadership feels this way. But even if he were not obscure, we should not let al-Qaeda play mind games with American voters. Al-Qaeda hates and wants to kill both Democrats and Republicans; it hates America in general. We don't even know why this posting to the internet supports McCain; for all we know they are trying to help him, expecting blow back from the public. The important thing is what McCain's practical plans are, not some 'gotcha' post from some scruffy fundamentalist vigilante on the internet.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Wednesday:

'Baghdad

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car in Mansour neighborhood (west Baghdad). Two people were killed.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under the head of the Diwaniyah Facility Protection Service’s car, Colonel Mohammed Abu Atra, in Nidhal Street in downtown Baghdad. The colonel was injured with two of his guards.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under an ambulance car in Andalus intersection in central Baghdad. One person was killed and three others were wounded.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car in Zafaraniyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). One person was injured.

- Police found one dead body in Saidiyah neighborhood (southwest Baghdad).

Mosul

- A car bomb detonated in Thawra neighborhood in Mosul city. Four people were killed and four others injured.

Diyala

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Balad Ruz (east of Baquba). One policeman was killed.

Kirkuk

- People found a head cut off its body in the Imam Hussein neighborhood in Tuz Khurmatu (south of Kirkuk), police said. The dead man was identified by police as a Turkman person who was kidnapped about a month ago from Inkija village of Tuz Khurmatu.

Anbar

- A mass grave of 34 dead bodies was found in Al-Qa’im town (about 250 miles west of Baghdad) near the Syrian border. A resident from the town while digging found four dead bodies and then he told police and the local council. They dug and found the mass grave of 34 bodies of civilians who were killed by the Al-Qaida organization.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Moves Closer to Obama-Type Plan for early US Withdrawal; Cabinet rejects Security Agreement

The debate between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama about a timetable for withdrawal of US troops from Iraq may have just been overtaken by events. Without a bilateral agreement on the rules governing US military actions in Iraq, US soldiers and officers would become liable to prosecution for acts committed in the course of battle.

It is highly unlikely that any security agreement will be passed by parliament by January 1st, when the UN mandate for multinational troops in Iraq runs out, given that the Iraqi cabinet has now called for substantial revisions in the draft agreement.

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on Tuesday that failure to get a bilateral treaty passed or at least a UN Security Council resolution-- passed could have dire implication for US troops.

In fact, one possible outcome, though unlikely, is a quick US withdrawal.

McCain opposes a withdrawal timeline of the sort that Bush has just agreed to. McCain said last summer:

“Prime Minister Malki . . . I am confident that he will act, as the president and foreign minister have both told me in the last several days, that it [US troop withdrawal] will be directly related to the situation on the ground, just as they have always said. And since we are succeeding and then I am convinced, as I have said before, we can withdraw and withdraw with honor, not according to a set timetable.'

But the Iraqis insisted on a timetable, initially 2010 but Bush argued that was too close to the Obama plan and got it postponed to 2011.

One of McCain's main talking points has been left behind in the dust.

Obama, in contrast, welcomed the al-Maliki government's called for awithdrawal timetable:

The good news is that Iraq’s leaders want to take responsibility for their country by negotiating a timetable for the removal of American troops. Meanwhile, Lt. Gen. James Dubik, the American officer in charge of training Iraq’s security forces, estimates that the Iraqi Army and police will be ready to assume responsibility for security in 2009.

Only by redeploying our troops can we press the Iraqis to reach comprehensive political accommodation and achieve a successful transition to Iraqis’ taking responsibility for the security and stability of their country. Instead of seizing the moment and encouraging Iraqis to step up, the Bush administration and Senator McCain are refusing to embrace this transition — despite their previous commitments to respect the will of Iraq’s sovereign government. They call any timetable for the removal of American troops “surrender,” even though we would be turning Iraq over to a sovereign Iraqi government.

But this is not a strategy for success — it is a strategy for staying that runs contrary to the will of the Iraqi people, the American people and the security interests of the United States. That is why, on my first day in office, I would give the military a new mission: ending this war.'

The Iraqi cabinet shot down the draft security agreement negotiated by the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and the Bush administration, insisting that several of its paragraphs need a change of wording. Bush administration officials say that they are unwilling to engage in yet another round of negotiations. Without cabinet approval, the draft probably would not even be submitted to parliament, much less passed by it. Some of the objections, as I reported yesterday, come from the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which is al-Maliki's chief political partner, the support of which he would need to get the draft through parliament. ISCI is close to Tehran, which objects to the agreement.

Even al-Maliki seemed lukewarm about the draft his office had negotiated, complaining that the US government 'takes away with one hand what it gave with the other.'

The Arabic text of the agreement is here.

The Bush administration came to al-Maliki last spring with a request for a Status of Forces Agreement specifying the rules for US troops operating in the country. Bush asked for hundreds of bases, no timetable for withdrawal, and complete legal immunity for both US contractors and for all military personnel.

Bush did not get it, just as he did not get success in so many other fields, including his "war on terror" (via Tomdispatch).

By the time a draft agreement was circulated last week (text courtesy Raed Jarrar), the US military had found itself confined to bases by next June and constrained to leave by 2011; civilian contractors were open to prosecution in Iraqi courts; and off-duty US troops who commit crimes might also find themselves before a qadi or Muslim court judge. There was no mention of long-term bases.

Behind the scenes, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani mobilized opposition to the original Bush demands, as an infringement on Iraqi national sovereignty.

In all likelihood, Iraq will go to the UN Security Council for a one-year renewal of the Multinational Forces Mandate. But the Iraqi politicians and people are voting, by their reluctance to acquiesce in the Bush/ al-Maliki plan for a SOFA, for something (with regard to the timetable for withdrawal) much closer to Obama's plan.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

When did McCain become a Neocon? Shiite MPs demand SOFA Renegotiation

Jonathan Landay carefully traces John McCain's transformation from pragmatist to Neoconservative warmonger, which took place while Bush was still just a Texas politician. He rather amusingly quotes Max Boot claiming that McCain is not a warmonger. I mean, in 2003 Boot acknowledged that the US killed thousands of Filipino civilians in the early 20th century in order to colonize the Philippines, and urged that if necessary the Bush administration kill just as many Iraqis. I asked at the time if people could be tried for thought-war-crimes. So asking Boot if someone is a warmonger is rich.

McClatchy argues that while most political endorsements are not very influential, Powell's endorsement of Obama is likely to have a significant impact.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, has published a detailed critique of the draft security agreement proposed by the government of Nuri al-Maliki with the United States. One unnamed ISCI parliamentarian called the agreement "dead on arrival." If al-Maliki cannot get the support for it of ISCI, his chief partner in parliament, then the agreement cannot be passed. Two many other political movements, including most Sunnis and Sadrists, oppose it for it to succeed in the absence of ISCI support. ISCI wants to renegotiate key points, but it is unlikely that the the Bush administration has the patience to do so.

Iran opposes the draft agreement, and ISCI is very close to the ayatollahs in Tehran.

The agreement likely cannot pass parliament. If it does pass, it is unlikely to pass by January 1, when the old UN mandate for the Multi-National Forces in Iraq runs out. Without such a mandate or a bilateral agreement, US troops in Iraq could be tried for war crimes even for ordinary military operations. If Iraq did go back to the UN for an extension of its mandate, it turns out that Russia would support an extension. Some observers, including Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, had wondered whether the US reaction to the Georgia police action had so soured Russia on Washington that Moscow would play spoiler on the UNSC with regard to Iraq. Not so, apparently.

Scott Peterson on the US mediation between Kurds and Arabs at Khanaqin, where there have been disputes between the Kurds and the al-Maliki government.

The Sunni insurgency is still active in al-Anbar province.

The LAT thinks falling oil prices may force Iraqis to make fruitful compromises, as between Arabs and Kurds over Kirkuk.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

' Baghdad

- A roadside bomb detonated in Fudhailiyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). One person was killed and seven others were wounded. - A roadside bomb detonated in Al-Rubayee street in Zayuna neighborhood. Two people were injured.

- A roadside bomb detonated on Palestine Street (east Baghdad) targeting a police patrol. Four people were injured including one policeman.

- One dead body was found today in Al-Ghadeer in the New Baghdad neighborhood in eastern Baghdad.

Diyala

- Police found one dead body in Buhriz (south Baquba).

- Police arrested three Sahwa members in Mustafa neighborhood in Baquba, according to arrest warrants

- Police killed a civilian by mistake when they raided Muqdadiyah town (north east of Baquba) at noon.

- Police killed three gunmen in Mandli town (east of Baquba) in clashes took place at the town.

- Iraqi army killed two Qaeda members, one was a leader, in Al-Khulis village in Buhriz(south of Baquba).

- A roadside bomb targeted a civilian contractor in Khanaqeen which was planted near his house. The contractor was killed at once.

Mosul

- Gunmen assassinated a member of the Kurdistan Democratic party (KDP) in Sahin Al-Sham in Mosul.

- A sniper killed a policeman in Borsa neighborhood in Mosul when he stopped near one of the check points in the area.

- A roadside bomb targeted a civilian car in Dhibat neighborhood in Mosul city. Six people were injured from one family. . .'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Church Bombed in Mosul; Christian Leaders Protest Gov't Unconcern; Sadrists Show Support for Christians

A church in the northern metropolis of was bombed in Mosul on Tuesday, as Christian leaders accused the government of PM Nuri al-Maliki of minimizing the seriousness of the crisis facing their community. Meanwhile, members of the hard line Shiite Sadr Movement reached out to the Christians. The Sadrists are Iraqi nationalists and enemies of the same Sunni fundamentalist vigilante groups that have repeatedly attacked the Christians.

More Christians left the city on Sunday, heading for nearby Christian villages that they feel are safer. The pace of the exodus has slowed from last weekend.

Father Philip Najim of the Patriarchate of Babylonia of the Chaldeans in part blamed the American military forces , who, he said, "contribute to destabilizing the country, because they are not able to guarantee peace. No one cares about us or about Iraq."

I don't think Father Najim thinks that the "surge" "worked."

Aljazeera International reports on the exodus of Iraqi Christians from Mosul, in the wake of a wave of assassinations and attacks on them.



The Chaldean Patriarch recently spoke of the massive bloodshed that has befallen Iraq as that country's "Calvary."

About half of Iraqi Christians have been forced abroad by the violence.

McClatchy reports other violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

' Baghdad

Three civilians were injured by a roadside bomb in Talbiyah neighborhood in east Baghdad around 7:00 a.m.

Around 8:00 p.m. an adhesive bomb stuck to a sedan detonated in Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad. When the police patrols came to the area of the explosion, a roadside bomb detonated injuring three policemen.

Police found one unidentified body in Jamia’a neighborhood in west Baghdad.

Salahuddin

Five civilians were injured by a bomb in Tuz Khurmatu market place in downtown the city on Monday evening.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Hashimi: Security Agreement in Doubt; UN Worries about Iraqi Christians; Physicians Close Clinics in Karbala

The UN is concerned about the continued flight of Christians from the northern metropolis of Mosul. Sunni radicals are targeting them and several have been assassinated.

Iraqi refugees who try to return to their old homes are often still facing violence on their return, McClatchy reports. The UN High Commission on Refugees staff in Amman told me last August that they actively discourage Iraqis from going back, since it is not safe.

A tribal sheikh in Samarra alleged to al-Zaman that the sheikhs had been instrumental in arranging a truce between US soldiers in that city and Muslim guerrillas, including "al-Qaeda in Iraq" (probably actually the "Islamic State of Iraq.")

Iraq opened bids for the development of its oil fields on Monday, insisting that foreign firms partner with Iraqi concerns.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that 200 physicians in the southern shrine city of Karbala have closed up their clinics because they have received threats from the local clans whose members they treat. When they fail to save the life of their tribal patient, the clan has been demanding that they pay blood money or else incur a feud with the tribe. This sort of constant wrangling with the clans could only affect the physicians in a situation where there was no law and order. This sort of insecurity has led many of Iraq's physicians and indeed its white collar middle class to flee the country.

McClatchy is reporting that Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni Arab, is expressing severe doubts that any security agreement can be concluded by the end of the year. He tells Leila Fadel that even if its text were soon finalized, the agreement would have to be passed by the cabinet, by the national security council and by parliament in time to take effect January 1.

Hashimi is also worried about a return of large-scale violence at the end of the year. How the Shiite-dominated government treats the Awakening Councils or pro-American Sunni militias, which it is now assuming responsibility for, will help determine if the civil war returns.

The alternatives to concluding the agreement are few. Iraq could go back to the UN Security Council for a one-year extension of its mandate to the Multinational Forces in Iraq, giving US troops legal standing to perform security duties in a foreign country. Moreover, Russia may raise difficulties in the UNSC, in retaliation for Washington's siding with Georgia in the recent police action there.

Or the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, could sign an executive memorandum of agreement with George W. Bush in hopes that it would take on the force of law with time. Both steps have drawbacks. Iraqis are not eager to postpone their return to full sovereignty in international law for yet another year. And, an executive-branch memorandum of agreement could easily be challenged.

The nightmare scenario is that a US platoon gets in a firefight in a village and accidentally shoots up a house full of civilians, and are overwhelmed by Iraqi troops and police and dragged before the local qadi and summarily executed. Without a Status of Forces Agreement, it is not even clear that the Iraqi police and judge in such a situation would be brought up on charges; after all,they had just arrested and punished foreign "murderers" with no legal standing to be in Iraq in the first place.

PM al-Maliki told the London Times that without an agreement, US troops would have to be confined to their bases or perhaps withdrawn:

' if the Parliament rejects it then we will have to go to the United Nations which is a not a great choice for us or the Americans under the circumstances of the crisis at the Security Council. But we would have no choice because the American forces will lose their legal cover on December 31 … If that happens, according to the international law, Iraqi law and American law, the US forces will be confined to their bases and have to withdraw from Iraq. We always say that a sudden withdrawal may harm security. . . Either the resolution will be extended by the Security Council, so they will have legal cover according to international law – and this seems to be unlikely at the moment. Or they lose will their legal cover and they have to leave Iraq. '

Al-Maliki professes, at least, that he does not really need the foreign troops any more except for close air support and training:

'Do you think the British should reduce the size of their 4,100-strong force?

Definitely, there will not be any need for 4,000 troops. The size of the need is determined by the size of the required tasks. For example to train the naval force, how many forces do we need? I don’t know. Also, to train the 14th Division in Basra, how many do we need? (Training on) some technical issues about how to use weapons and equipment. This will be determined in the negotiations… '

He boasts of his ability to turn the tribes around Basra to government loyalties. (He is talking about the Marsh Arabs like that!) He also thinks his Shiite troops are more willing to take casualties and engage in close fighting in dense neighborhoods. (His best fighters are, however, actually Badr Corps militiamen whom he has inducted into the military, and who had been until 2003 part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps).

A Turkish delegation is meeting with Iraqi Kurd leader Massoud Barzani to discuss ways of curbing the PKK Kurdish guerrilla group.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

1000 Policemen Sent to guard Christians of Mosul; Turkish War Planes Strike Again

Turkish war planes again bombed positions in northern Iraq where guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) were thought to be holedup.

Iraqi authorities ordered 1,000 police into the districts of Mosul where Christians tend to live to stanch the flow of emigrants sparked by a series of assassinations of Christians. About 3,000 Christians are said to have fled the city in recent days.

Al-Hayat, writing in Arabic, says that assailants destroyed 5 Christian houses. The Islamic State of Iraq in bulletin board postings denied responsibility for the attacks on Christians (the I.S.I. is connected to the religious radicals in the Sunni Arab insurgency).

Bombings and attacks in Iraq's northern city of Mosul left 6 dead and 7 wounded on Sunday.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki gives an interview in the London Times i which he makesit clear that he wants foreign troops out of Iraq by 2011 at latest.


McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

' Baghdad

- Saturday night, gunmen opened fire on Sahwa check point in Dora neighborhood(south Baghdad). Two Sahwa members were killed.

- Around 8 am a roadside bomb detonated in Mayslon intersection in Karrada neighborhood (downtown Baghdad) targeting a police patrol. Seven people were injured including five policemen.

- Around 9am a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Waziriyah neighborhood (north Baghdad).Four people were injured including three policemen.

- Around 10 am a sniper killed two Iraqi army soldiers near a check point in Mansour neighborhood (west Baghdad).

- Around noon, a parked car bomb detonated in Bayaa neighborhood (southwest Baghdad). Nine people were killed and 13 others were wounded.

- Police found one dead body in Zayuna neighborhood in east Baghdad today.

Mosul

- Early morning a bicycle bomb detonated in the Wednesday market in downtown Mosul. Four people were wounded.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Arabi neighborhood in Mosul city, in the morning. One civilian was killed and three others were wounded.

- In the afternoon, a suicide car bomber targeted an American patrol in Islah neighborhood in Mosul city. Five Iraqi people were killed and ten others wounded, police said and the Coalition forces confirmed the incident.'

'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

October Surprise? Security Agreement said Near Signing; 3000 Christians Flee Mosul

Is this part of a Bush attempt at an October surprise? Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that its sources in Baghdad say that the al-Maliki government will sign off on a security agreement with the Bush administration "within days." The report says that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has assured the government that he will accept the agreement if it can pass parliament. Pundits are debating how likely the measure is to get through the Iraqi legislature, with some denying it has a chance and others saying it will sail through. Since Bush caved on the timeline for American troop withdrawal, saying we will be out in 2011 assuming the situation allows, I'm not sure the agreement will be so controversial. The Kurds will back it with their 58 seats, and al-Maliki just needs 80 Shiites to back it in order to pass it.

One wild card for al-Maliki is whether the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, headed by Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim, will back the agreement or attampt to derail it. Shiite MP Qasim Daud alleged that Iran is working through ISCI to derail the agreement.

The alternative to concluding such an agreement is for Iraq to remain under the provisions of Chatper 7 of the UN Charter, which deny it full sovereignty (a step that would be very unpopular in Iraq now). No one wants that.

Obviously, McCain will trumpet a successfully concluded security agreement as yet another benefit of the troop escalation plan or 'surge' of 2007-2008. Ironically, the advantages the Republicans have on foreign policy (e.g., Bush gave in on several measures in order to get the agreement initialled before Nov. are now outweighbed by the financial crisis.

Attacks on and assassinations of Christians in Iraq's northern metropolis of Mosul led to the exodus of several hundred families, perhaps as many as 3,000 individuals, in the past two days. This according to the governor of Ninevah Province, Duraid Kashmula (Mosul is the capital of Ninevah).

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkish Air Strikes; Bombings, Attacks Kill 24

Turkish war planes hit 21 targets inside Iraq, in the Kurdish north, on Friday night.

Meanwhile, bombings and attacks killed 24 and wounded 45 in the mixed district of Dora.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Suicide Bomber Kills 11 in Baquba; Turks to Continue Strikes on Iraq

A female suicide bomber detonated her belt bomb on Wednesday near some Iraqi army humvees in front of a courthouse in Baquba, killing at least 11 persons and wounding 20. Five Iraqi soldiers were killed, including 2 Majors. Baquba, the capital of Diyala Province, is 35 miles northeast of Baghdad. It is riven by conflicts between Sunnis and Shiites and between Arabs and Kurds.

The Turkish parliament renewed the blanket permission it has given its army to attack Kurdish rebels inside northern Iraq. It is really quite extraordinary that what would ordinarily be viewed as acts of war go without remark almost everywhere but in the Kurdish press of northern Iraq.

Sunni Arab guerrillas are waging a campaign of killing against Iraqi Christians in Mosul.

The next National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq will likely say that the place is an ethnic and sectarian tinderbox that could explode at any moment.

Magnetized or 'sticky' bombs are being deployed against vehicles by Iraqi guerrillas with increasing frequency as a tool of assassination aimed at the middle managers of the Iraqi government as well as top officials.

Iraqi professionals are still fleeing the country in droves, according to Tina Susman of the LAT.

Straitened economic circumstances may place in doubt the US military budget of $694 billion a year or so, which is at World War II levels.

Iraq will likely hold provincial elections early in 2009. Several incumbent parties could lose power at the provincial level, though they would retain their position in parliament until the next polls for the federal legislature. One thing to watch is how the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq does in the Shiite south, where it now dominates most provinces. If it loses to the Sadr Movement, the latter's leader Muqtada al-Sadr would be in a position to block the planned amalgamation of southern provinces into a Shiite super province.

Among the likely losers is the Sunni Arab fundamentalist party, the Iraqi Islamic Party, The IIP may lose big to the Awakening Councils, or pro-American militias. Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that the Al-Maliki government, which has assumed responsibility for most of these former guerrillas, is arresting more of the Awakening Council members.

The Federal Communnications Commission will investigate the ties of retired military analysts on cable and network television to the Pentagon, which used them as "force multimpliers". Although the NYT blew the whistle on these links months ago, the television networks never even reported the allegations!

Mahmud Shahrudi, chief of the Iranian judiciary and himself of Iraqi origin, said Wednesday that Iraq does not need US troops on its soil, and that Iraq should not sign a Status of Forces Agreement with the US.

McClatchy reports other political violence in Iraq on on Tuesday and Wednesday:

' Baghdad

Around 7:30 a.m. a roadside bomb exploded in Baladiyat neighborhood in east Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

Two civilians were injured by a roadside bomb in Adhemiyah neighborhood in east Baghdad around 6:30 p.m.

Police found one unidentified body in Obeidi neighborhood.

Diyala

Around 11:45 a.m. a female suicide bomber blew herself up near the Diyala governorate building in downtown Baquba city north of Baghdad targeting security forces. Five Iraqi soldiers were killed including 2 high rank officers (2 Majors) in addition to a policeman and three civilians. Twenty people (16 civilians and 4 policemen were injured)

Nineveh

Three policemen were killed and six others were wounded by a roadside bomb in al Rashidiyah neighborhood in Mosul city on Wednesday afternoon.

Gunmen killed two Christian men on Tuesday evening in Mosul city.

Gunmen killed a Christian man on Wednesday morning in Mosul city.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

11 Family Members killed in US Raid; GI likely torured in Iraq;

A US raid on a suspected guerrilla safe house left 11 members of a family dead on Sunday, including three women and three children. The US military insists that the dead men were members of "al-Qaeda" and that the house was full of arms, and that, indeed, some of the destruction was caused by a secondary explosion. Iraqis seem to be denying the US charges.

The main political significance of the dead women and children is that they certainly will be thought relevant by at least the Sunni Arabs in parliament to the status of forces agreement being hammered out between Prime Minister al-Maliki and the Bush administration.

A bomb attack on a British convoy in Basra on Sunday wounded an Iraqi civilian.

One of the reasons the US military prefers to follow the Geneva Conventions, which forbid torture, is that when America tortures it encourages its enemies who capture GIs to torture them. It is therefore sad to know that Bush, Cheney, Rice and Rumsfeld ordered that prisoners be tortured and that "the parents of Spc. Byron Wayne Fouty believe he was tortured by his captors . . ." Fouty was from Texas.

Egyptian foreign minister Ahmad Aoul Gheit made a surprise visit to Baghdad on Sunday and talked about reopening the Egyptian embassy. The last Egyptian diplomat sent there was killed. For his part, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak roiled relations with Iraq by saying that Arab Shiites are more loyal to Iran than to their own countries. But Egypt needs energy and Iraq has a lot of oil, and Cairo is inching back toward a correct relationship with Baghdad.

Turkey, facing a terrorism threat from radical Kurdish separatists based in Iraq, asks the US and Iraq to control Iraqi borders.

Internally displaced Iraqis are being pressured to return to the former domiciles, with aid being withdrawn and tents taken down by the government. This despite the changed political geography of Iraq in the wake of the 2006-2007 massive ethnic cleansing, which has left many Sunni areas without Shiites and vice versa. Shiites cannot return to towns such as Habbaniya because they would stand out like a sore thumb. Anyway, many of them have been personally threatened by name by militias of the other sect, and will not go back as long as they think those militiamen who menaced them are still active and armed.There is no more effective threat than one backed up by thousands of previous murders.

Tina Susman of the LAT reports that more Iraqis are still fleeing the country than are returning, and that the brain drain of professionals is still extensive..

Iraq is rebuilding the Askariya Shrine in Samarra, the destruction of which kicked off the Shiite campaign of ethnic cleasning of Sunnis. Some hope the rebuilt shrine will improve Sunni-Shiite relations.

McClatchy reports other political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

' Nineveh

. . .Gunmen killed four men and injured six in a drive by shooting that targeted a funeral in Al Zinjili area in Mosul. One of the deceased was Iraqi army officer.

- Police found three bodies in Wahda neighborhood in Mosul. The three men were kidnapped yesterday.

- Gunmen attacked a police patrol in central Mosul injuring two policemen.

Diyala

- Gunmen attacked Hussein Al Hamad village near Khan Bani Saad area, about 18 miles south of Baquba, killing three citizens and destroying five houses.

Kirkuk

- Police found one dead body of a Kurd young man near a bridge one day after his kidnapping.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqis Blame lack of Political Progress for Bombings

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic on the aftermath of the horrific bombings on Thursday at Shiite mosques in Baghdad that left 26 persons dead and dozens wounded.

Wa'il Abd al-Latif, an independent member of parliament saw a relationship between the bombings and the sources of the recent political tension that have not been resolved. One of these contentious issues is the security agreement being negotiated by PM al-Maliki with the Bush administration. He said that there is a crisis of confidence over the ability and willingness of the (Shiite-dominted) government and the Awakening Councils (Sunni Arab Iraqis willing to take a US salary to fight the Muslim radical vigilantes).

Murtada al-Qazwini, the Friday prayers sermonizer at the al-Husayn shrine complex in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, requested the government during his Eid or holy day sermon to refuse to sign the security agreement being worked out with the Bush administration, because, he said, the current draft allows US troops in Iraq to commit crimes against Iraqis and the things they hold sacred without recourse for the victims to Iraqi courts.

Muhammad Ismail al-Khazraji of the Fadhila (Islamic Virtue) Party blamed the Iraqi government for the escalation of violence, saying it had failed to implement a plan for national reconciliation. He said the bombings were done by political actors who sought concrete goals.


McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

A suicide bomber wearing a suicide vest targeted a Shiite mosque in Baghdad al-Jadeeda, eastern Baghdad after Eid prayers, at 7.45 a.m. Thursday, killing at least twelve civilians, injuring twenty five.

A suicide car bomb targeted a Shiite mosque in Zafaraniyah, southeastern Baghdad at 7.45 a.m. Thursday killing eight people including four Iraqi Army members, injuring ten including one soldier.

A suicide car bomb targeted a U.S. military convoy in Ameriyah, west Baghdad at noon. A U.S. army vehicle was destroyed and two Iraqi civilians were injured according to Iraqi police. The U.S. military confirmed the incident, adding that the investigation was ongoing.

One mortar round slammed into the Green Zone near the Ministry of Defence, said Iraqi Police. No casualties were reported.

One unidentified body was found in Nidhal Street, central Baghdad by Iraqi Police today.

Nineveh

Gunmen attempted to assassinate Radhwan Izuddin, religious sheikh of al-Furqan Mosque in al-Zuhur neighbourhood, eastern Mosul. Izuddin survived the attack that took place in front of the mosque with superficial injuries.

Diyala

Gunmen opened fire upon a Kia minibus from a speeding car in Wajihiyah, 20 km to the east of Baquba killing three women, one man and two children ages five and six, injuring two people: a woman and a man.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Al-Maliki: US Cannot Afford to Stay; Physicians to Carry Weapons

In an interview with the Associated Press, PM Nuri al-Maliki warned that the future is dark if Iraq and the US do not agree on a security pact. And without a pact, he said, all the security progress made in the last year would be at risk. He points out that the alternative is to go back to the UN security council for an extension of Chapter 7 authorization of foreign troops in Iraq, and that UNSC approval is no longer assured because Russia may be in a bad mood after the Georgia tiff. He says Iraq still insists that US troops who are off base and not on a military mission, who commit crimes in Iraq, must be tried in Iraqi courts.

Al-Maliki, who wants a timetable for US withdrawal by the end of 2010, ended the interview with a clever appeal over Bush's head to the American public:

' "If I had enough funds to assist the American economy, I would do all that I can. But unfortunately Iraq cannot solve America's economic problems.

"But what Iraq can do is take up more responsibility security-wise here inside Iraq. And I have told the Americans repeatedly that we are ready to take up responsibility here in Iraq so there are less losses, a decreased number of American lives lost, and I am prepared to present this case before the American people. ...'

Maybe al-Maliki has been reading John Gray, who writes, "The global financial crisis will see the US falter in the same way the Soviet Union did when the Berlin Wall came down. The era of American dominance is over . . ."

Al-Maliki is reminding an economically prostrate America that it cannot afford to buck him on the troop withdrawal timetable. Literally cannot afford! As in, best you go home now and let us take care of security, and save what little money you have left. And, oh, thanks for forking over the $1 trillion while you still had it . . . I guess he is not afraid of McCain's forlorn hope of keeping a US military base on Iraqi soil (expensive!).

To paraphrase T.S. Elliot, "This is the way the [war] ends/ This is the way the [war] ends/This is the way the [war] ends/Not with a bang but a whimper."

The Iraqi government will permit physicians to carry firearms. The decree is a bid to tempt back to Iraq 8,000 medical doctors who have fled the country because they were targeted by guerrillas hoping to destabilize the country by crippling its services. The problem I see with this decree is that many of the physicians have been personally threatened by armed militias. So you'd have to believe you were a quick draw, a good shot, and able to mow down several guys with AK-47s before they could get you, before you would go back.

This sort of stunt, and the situation it is meant to address, both prove how terrible is the situation in Iraq still. If it were 'calm,' the physicians would come back without firearms. If the police and government amounted to anything, the doctors would not have to pack heat themselves. Another thing that works against the physicians' return is that they can survive in Jordan and Syria. Even though they cannot get formal work permits,they can hire on to clinics as 'consultants'. If they have capital, they can also invest locally (in Jordan at least, an investment of $100,000 gets you a residency visa).

Sunday's bombings in Baghdad, and the killing of nearly 100 civilians in Baghdad during Ramadan, raise questions for Iraqis. Is this increase in violence a secular trend, a sign of deterioration, or is it just that guerrillas have more spare time during the month of fasting (when typically people do not work full work days, and lots of people circulate for dinner (i.e. breaking-the-fast) parties. Although this Ramadan was 40% less deadly than last year, it was also more deadly than July and August.

Iraq is buying 12 reconnaissance planes from the US. This purchase is a step toward the Iraqi government regaining control of Iraq's skies. Now that it has more of an armored corps in the army, it needs fighter jets and bombers to provide air cover for them. The US is not ready to relinquish Iraqi air space, but PM Nuri al-Maliki probably sees this purchase as a step in that direction.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

' Baghdad

- Mortars hit Hurriyah neighborhood (northwest Baghdad). Five people were injured with one house was damaged.

- Mortars hit Ghazaliyah neighborhood (northwest Baghdad) near Um Al-Qura mosque. Three people were injured with some houses nearby were damaged.

- Mortars hit Abu Ghraib (west of Baghdad). One person was injured with two houses were damaged.

- Police found one dead body in Saidiyah in Karkh bank (south Baghdad) today.

Mosul

- Sunday night, a bomb was put under a taxi car detonated in Abu Tamam intersection in Mosul city. Only the taxi driver was injured in that incident.

- Around 5:30 pm a car bomb detonated in Nabi Yunis neighborhood in Mosul before the Iraqi army experts defuse it. Nine people were injured including 5 Peshmerga members of the PDK.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bombings in Baghdad Kill 34, Wound 100; Arab-Kurdish Violence in Diyala

A wave of deadly bombings and other attacks swept Baghdad on Sunday, killing nearly three dozen persons and wounding over 100.

The attacks on Shiite neighborhoods were likely intended to remind the Iraqi public on the eve of Eid al-Fitr (the celebration of the end of the fasting month of Ramadan) that the Sunni guerrilla movement is still active and has not been defeated.

The situation in Iraq is dire, and the discourse about Iraq in the presidential campaign is often disconnected from reality. McCain is asserting that "victory" is at hand and rewriting his own history of support for Bush's invasion and policies there. Now the McCain people are trying to claim that McCain called for the resignation of former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld, which he certainly did not.

And, the McCain call for "victory," meaning an Iraq that can police its own borders, begs the question of what those borders even are. ("Kurdistan" is not a settled place). See below.

The attacks come days after the Iraqi parliament finally approved enabling legislation for provincial elections. The parliamentarians agreed to postpone elections in the disputed oil province of Kirkuk.

I have long been a proponent of early provincial elections. The Sunni Arab provinces have never had proper elections since the January 2005 polls were boycotted because Bush leveled Fallujah. The elections could create a new post-Baath political elite in the Sunni Arab provinces that has legitimacy and actually represents big constituencies. Some of the trouble in Diyala comes from minority Shiite dominance of a majority Sunni province. If the al-Maliki government wants to find a Sunni negotiating partner (which is still unclear), the provincial leaders to be elected next winter could fit the bill. Some of them will go on to national political careers. A lot of Sunnis are still secular, and could begin the process of moving away from religious fundamentalist parties always dominating.

The likely emergence of significant political rivals among the Sunnis would cause the fundamentalist vigilantes to redouble their efforts to destabilize Iraq further.

On the other hand,that parliament had to postpone elections in Kirkuk is a very bad sign, as is the military and paramilitary conflict between Arabs and Kurds.

Kurds are reversing Saddam's ethnic cleansing drive of earlier decades, returning and expelling Arabs. Not all Kurds going to such regions are returnees, and not all the Arabs being forced out are internal migrants.

Iraqi police and Kurdish paramilitary members seem to have had a shoot-out in Jalaula on Sunday that left a Kurdish politician dead.

In nearby Sa'adiya, a Kurdish mayor was wounded in a bombing.

McClatchy reports details of political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

' Baghdad

- Around 8 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army vehicle in Mansour neighborhood, killing one soldier and injuring two soldiers and a civilian.

- Around 1 p.m. American soldiers searched an empty house in Zayuna neighborhood and shot randomly, injuring two civilians in the area, Iraqi police said. U.S. military said they had no information about the incident.

- Around 5:30 p.m. a parked car bomb exploded in a busy market in Shurta Rabaa neighborhood, southwest Baghdad, killing 12 civilians and injuring 35 others.

- Around 5:30 p.m. a bomb planted in a car exploded on a main road near Al Bayaa neighborhood, killing one and injuring one.

- Around 7 p.m. a parked car bomb exploded in the busy market area of Karrada neighborhood in central Baghdad, followed by a roadside bomb that killed 19 civilians and injured 72 others.

- Police found two dead bodies throughout Baghdad, one near Al Rasheed Camp and one in Hurriyah.

Diyala

- Around 9 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted Ahmed Samir Zargush, the mayor of Al Saidiyah town, about 50 miles east of Baquba. Zargush was injured along with three of his bodyguards and two civilians.

Nineveh

- Gunmen killed one citizen, a Christian, in Al Baladiyat neighborhood and in another incident gunmen killed a man and injured his brother in Mosul.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqi Hopes for US Troop Withdrawal

One of the things that struck me about Friday night's debate on the time line for troop withdrawal was that McCain appeared to believe that how long US troops remain in Iraq and at what strength is a unilateral matter dictated by Washington. The government of prime minister Nuri al-Maliki is already trying to negotiate a timetable for US withdrawal as part of the proposed security agreement. A majority of parliament certainly supports a timetable.

Indeed, the Iraqi government wanted a 2010 deadline for withdrawal. Bush pushed for a delay until 2015 in part because he was afraid that agreeing to 2010 would make McCain look bad. The Iraqis were forced to accept 2011.

There is even less tolerance for a long term foreign troop presence among ordinary Iraqis, thousands of whom have lost relatives to US military operations. Aljazeera English reports on the death of a respected Iraqi academic in Baquba, shot at a US checkpoint.



One exception to this yearning to see the Americans go is the some of the Kurds, who as a minority trying to remain independent of Baghdad and able to confront Turkey. Some Kurds would very much like to keep US troops in Iraq. This Kurdish aspiration explains Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari's continual announcements about there being no timetable in the security agreement. Clearly, the Shiite Arabs do want a timetable.

It is not just Iraqis. About 60 percent of Americans want a timeline for US troop withdrawal from Iraq.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Royal Dutch Shell Deal in Iraq

Aljazeera English on the Shell deal with Iraq to develop natural gas.



Critics of the deal say there was no competitive bidding. Supporters say it will help the British, Dutch and Iraqi economies.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

GI Killed in Baghdad by Guerrillas; Mass Grave near Baquba with Dozens of Bodies; $13 Bn. in Taxpayer Money Embezzled or given to 'al-Qaeda'

Reuters reports that "A U.S. soldier died after a small-arms fire attack on his patrol in Baghdad."

Near Baquba, Reuters says, "Police found three mass graves containing tens of bodies in two areas south of Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) northeast of Baghdad, the government said in a statement. . . "

Iraqi auditor Salam Adhoob told Congress on Monday that $13 billion in American aid was embezzled by Iraqi politicians or ended up being wasted. Some of the money actually made its way from the Iraqi Defense Ministry to 'Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)." Iraqi officials also stand accused of coordinating petroleum theft from the Baiji refinery with AQI.

A webcast of the hearing is available at this site

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said Monday that he was worried that it was entirely possible that there will be no security agreement between the Iraqi government and the Bush administration. He said that in that case, there would be no choice but to ask the United Nations Security Council to authorize foreign troops in the country for a further year. Most Iraqis want to become independent of the UN.

The Shiite-dominated Iraqi government will take over responsibility for the Sunni Awakening Councils or "Sons of Iraq" militias in Baghdad next week. Created by the US to fight radical Muslim vigilantes, they contain many former guerrillas in their ranks who agreed to take $300 a month from the US. The Shiite government does not want to bring them wholesale into the Iraqi security forces lest they prove a Sunni Trojan Horse.

Shell has opened a Baghdad office in connection with its new contract to develop Iraqi natural gas. It is the first time a Western energy Major has opened such an office since the early 1970s when the Iraqi government nationalized its fossil fuels.

Reuters reports other political violence in Iraq on Monday:

'
* BALAD RUZ - Police arrested seven members of a suicide cell near Balad Ruz, 90 km (55 miles) northeast of Baghdad, the government said in a statement...

BAGHDAD - The Iraqi army killed two gunmen and arrested 81 others in the last 24 hours in different parts of the country, the Defence Ministry said.

BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed at least two people and wounded five others in the Karrada district of central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A mortar bomb killed one person and wounded four others in western Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A car bomb wounded two people when it exploded near an Iraqi army patrol in Jamiaa district in western Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen killed two brothers and wounded a third when they opened fire in a market in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, on Sunday, police said. . .

MOSUL - A morgue in the city of Mosul received two bodies with gunshot wounds, police said. . .

SUWAYRA - Police recovered a body showing signs of torture from the Tigris River in Suwayra, 50 km (30 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said. . . .'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Chorev Reviews Hafez on Suicide Bombers

Suicidal Ambitions: Human Bombs and the War in Iraq

By Matan Chorev

Review of Mohammed M. Hafez

Suicide Bombers in Iraq: The Strategy and Ideology of Martyrdom

(Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2007)

285 pages, $17.50 hardcover.


Since 2003, according to the United States Library of Congress, over 800 books on the Iraq war have been published in the U.S. alone, each of which aspires to provide some explanation for the seemingly inexplicable patterns of violence in Iraq. Any contribution to this mountain of printed knowledge faces the increasingly ambitious task of adding a semblance of clarity to the exceedingly complex con?agration that is Iraq’s Hobbesian reality.

In "Suicide Bombers in Iraq: The Strategy and Ideology of Martyrdom," Mohammed M. Hafez applies his earlier research on Palestinian suicide bombers and the causes of rebellion in the Islamic world to analyze the patterns of suicide attacks in Iraq. His goal is twofold. First, Hafez assesses whether existing theories on suicide terrorism offer an analytic lens capable of explaining the phenomenon in Iraq. Second, he endeavors to explain the nature and goals of the insurgency, what it portends for the future of Iraq and the United States’ objectives, and its global repercussions.

In the book, Hafez examines con?ict data from March 22, 2003, to August 18, 2006. Naturally, this timeframe disappoints. It predates important moments in the con?ict, including the implementation of the latest effort at “victory,” the Baghdad Security Plan (i.e., “the surge”) announced in January 2007. Nonetheless, the study’s ?ndings remain relevant in spite of the author’s rightfully modest insistence that they be viewed as “preliminary and subject to further research.”

During the period in question, approximately 514 suicide attacks took place—a ?gure greater than the number of suicide attacks reported in all other con?icts combined. Hafez argues that although they constitute a small proportion of insurgent activity in Iraq, “suicide attacks have a disproportionate impact on political developments in Iraq because of their targets, lethality, and psychological potency.”

To be sure, the book is an invaluable resource for understanding who exactly is volunteering to ?ght and die in Iraq and why they are willing to do so. The author’s analysis makes important advances to existing theories that try to explain the existence, spread, and use of suicide bombings. Overall, however, the reader is left unconvinced as to whether the analytic prism of suicide terrorism advances, rather than distracts from, efforts to analyze the Iraqi conflict.

Hafez demonstrates that suicide terrorism in the Iraqi insurgency differs in important respects from its use in other conflicts. First, most of the suicide bombers are foreigners. Of the 102 known suicide bombers in Iraq listed by Hafez, 44 came from Saudi Arabia, by far the leading exporter of human bombs to Iraq. Second, suicide attacks primarily target fellow Iraqis, typically Shi‘a civilians and members of Iraq’s security services, and thus have been a major precipitating factor in Iraq’s civil war. Finally, rather than nationalists ?ghting to expel occupying forces (the argument evinced most persuasively by University of Chicago’s Robert Pape in Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism), the plurality of Iraq’s suicide bombers are af?liated with a “Jihadi Sala?st” movement championed by al-Qaeda and its associated movements mobilized by informal networks. The book aptly demonstrates that the existing theories are insuf?cient in explaining the Iraqi case.

Hafez expounds upon social movement theory to offer a persuasive multi-causal explanation to those who wonder why so many volunteer to ?ght and die in Iraq. His narrative includes the well-documented grievances of the insurgents, as well as the abysmal administration of the postwar political and security environment. Its main contribution, however, is its prescient analysis of the essential role of transnational networks that linked Arab, as well as European, Muslim jihadi aspirants with the necessary persons and know-how to make it to Iraq to ful?ll their dreams of martyrdom.

It is here that Hafez’s regional expertise and ability to sift through the Arabic press, as well as the bottomless “jihadosphere,” helps color the book with distinctive analysis and insight. Readers will learn about how the ideology of martyrdom is framed and promoted, and how horri?c violence—even against fellow Muslims—is justi?ed. It reveals the signi?cant ?ssures that exist within the Islamic world. It is this struggle that will likely determine the progress of conflict in the region. It is also a confrontation on which the United States has minimal direct influence.

Hafez reserves the most intriguing analysis for the end of the book. He methodically demonstrates that the conditions which gave rise to the “second generation of jihadists” – those that succeeded the mujahedeeen in Afghanistan and brought down the towers in New York – are replicating in are replicating in Iraq and will give birth (if they haven’t already) to a third generation of glob- al jihadists with access to ever-deadlier weapons, more formidable transna- tional networks, and a new safe haven in Iraq. This ?nding is widely shared but has rarely received a sophisticated and well-substantiated treatment.

But do the ?gures about suicide terrorism in Iraq reveal anything more broadly about the complex warfare in Iraq? Hafez believes so. He attributes the majority of suicide attacks to “Jihadi Sala?sts” and “ideological Ba’athists” who are committed to a system collapse strategy—“the complete dismantlement of public order, governing political and economic

institutions, and state security forces.” The ensuing failed state will allow global jihadists associated with al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) to establish “a new safe haven to replace the one al-Qaeda lost after the collapse of the Taliban in 2001.”

The major Sunni insurgency in Iraq, however, is led by Islamic nationalists committed to a “system reintegration” strategy. Groups like the Islamic Army in Iraq share with AQI the goal of ousting the American occupiers, but they do not seek to dismantle the Iraqi government. Their goal, rather, is to reverse their marginalization in the postwar Shi‘a Arab-and Kurdish-dominated political arrangement and to guard against regional federalism.

This taxonomy is well within the consensus judgment of the analytic community. It is remarkable only because it counters the Bush administration’s imagined, if not fabricated, view of reality. In an effort to link the insurgency in Iraq with Osama Bin Laden’s al-Qaeda, President George W. Bush consistently blames AQI for carnage in Iraq. As noted by Andrew Tilghman’s provocative “The Myth of AQI” in the October 2007 issue of Washington Monthly, the President mentioned al-Qaeda 95 times in a single speech last July. The strategy works. The New York Times Public Editor Clark Hoyt, in a July 8, 2007, article, censured his newspaper for wholesale adoption of the administration’s rhetoric that, through its uncritical journalistic practices, gave credibility to what Anthony Cordesman has understatedly called the “almost absurd” notion that AQI is a central element of the insurgency.

Hafez makes the case that suicide bombers have “dragged Iraq into civil war.” This analysis exaggerates the degree to which this tactic is a precipitating factor in Iraq’s civil war. Sectarian con?ict is the inevitable outcome of the Bush administration’s bungling war effort to superimpose itself on the most inauspicious of preconditions. The Shi‘a insurgency, which unfortunately is largely untreated by Hafez (if only because of the dearth of Shi’a suicide bombers), and parasitic local militias struggling for power and spoils likely to play a greater role in fanning the flames of sectarianism in Iraq. As the August 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) notes, “Iraqi society’s growing polarization the persistent weakness of security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism.” In Iraq, human bombs are but one ingredient in a most unsavory stew of violence.

There is little doubt in Hafez’s ?nding that the Iraq war has served as a “?eld of dreams for jihadists seeking training, expertise, and experience in the ways and means of terrorism and guerilla warfare.” The Iraq war never had a thing to do with the war on terror, except, of course, that it went a long way in setting back its objectives. The new generation of terrorists and the millions of hearts and minds lost as a cause of this war will undoubtedly prove to be one of the most tragic of its innumerable negative consequences.

Decreased U.S. in?uence in the region will necessitate a return to the Cold War primacy of stability approach and thus sustain the very conditions that allow radical Islamic groups to mobilize support. Hafez correctly argues that the Iraqi petri dish is not likely to offer Jihadi Sala?s a campground as favorable as the one they enjoyed in Taliban Afghanistan. For one, this chafes against the country’s secular tradition. Second, Iraq’s Shi‘a majority is hardly a prospective bedfellow for Sunni Sala?st ideology.

But how does one contend with the fallout of U.S. failure in Iraq? On this point, the author is unsatisfactorily mum. Were one to follow Hafez’s analysis to its natural conclusion, it would reveal two important observations. The ?rst is that continued U.S. occupation will slow, not accelerate, AQI’s demise. This debunks the Bush administration’s last great reason for staying the course in Iraq. The second is that al-Qaeda has been rescued from extinction after the war in Afghanistan and has now, as the

July 2007 NIE assessed, restored the “key capabilities it would need to launch an attack on U.S. soil.” To refocus the ?ght against al-Qaeda will require quickly extracting ourselves from the Iraq morass. Hafez’s valuable study rings the alarm bells on the dif?cult challenges just over the horizon. We can only hope someone is listening.

Reprinted from The Fletcher Forum with kind permission of the author.

==

Matan Chorev is a researcher at the Belfer Center of Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

8 Killed, 82 Wounded in Bombings, Attacks; Benchmark Laws Still Stalled

The guerrilla war continues in Iraq. On Sunday, guerrillas blew up the general manager of the Ministry of Finance, Ihsan Ridha, and a Brigadier General, Adel Abbas, who was a manager of the ministry of the interior (which has FBI-like functions in Iraq). Ridha was injured; Abbas was killed. Police and army patrols were bombed in Baghdad, and police stations were bombed in the major northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. One of the police patrols in Baghdad was attacked in the Sunni enclave of al-Adhamiya (the police are mostly Shiites), suggesting that the sectarian war is still going on.

There is no point in targeting high ministry officials and security forces on the ground like that unless you are trying to cause the government to collapse. The pattern of the attacks shows that the guerrillas have by no means given up and that they are still engaged in a concerted and effective attack on the institutions of the Iraqi government.

CNN Arabic says that 8 persons were killed and 82 persons were wounded in these various attacks (see below).

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that the parliamentary session scheduled for Sunday on the enabling law for provincial elections had to be cancelled because the Arab and Turkmen members of the committee set up to reconcile the wording of the law walked out. Kurdish MP Fu'ad Ma'sum complained bitterly that the walkout was an insult given all the extensive concessions the Kurds have made. Monday is seen as a last chance for parliament to pass the law if the elections are to be held this year.
The law has been held up because parliamentarians cannot agree on how to treat the disputed oil province of Kirkuk.

Al-Zaman also reports that Oil Minister Husain Shahrastani is complaining that the independent deals struck by the Kurdistan Regional Government with a Norwegian firm have impeded the passage in the federal parliament of an oil law.

Al-Zaman says that former interim prime minister Iyad Allawi says he insists that any security agreement between the Bush administration and the al-Maliki government be submitted to 'public opinion' in Iraq (presumably via a national referendum). He added that when he was in Washington 2 months ago he had told the Americans that they had as well give up on getting a bilateral security agreement passed. He also said he was considering pulling his party out of the Iraqi national security council, on which all major parties have seats, since it had utterly failed to deal with Iraq's problems.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

'Baghdad

- A bomb was planted under the car of the general manager of the Ministry of Finance, in Kindi street in Harthiya neighborhood on Sunday morning. Ihsan Ridha, the manager was injured in that incident.

- Gunmen assassinated Brigadier General Adel Abass, a manager in the ministry of interior in Adel neighborhood around 7:30 am. He was killed with his driver.

- Gunmen opened fire on an officer in the general inspector office in New Baghdad neighborhood. Raad Amar, the officer, was wounded and he was transferred to hospital to be treated.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol at the Maghrib intersection of Waziriyah in north Baghdad. Five people were injured, including one policeman.

- A roadside bomb targeted an army patrol in Waziriyah neighborhood in northern Baghdad near the Turkish Embassy. Seven people were injured including three soldiers.

- A bomb was planted under a car in Tahriyat intersection in Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad. Four people were wounded, including one policeman.

- A roadside bomb targeted the Bayna newspaper building in Nidhal street(downtown Baghdad). Two people were injured.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Zafarniyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). Six people were wounded including three policemen.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol near the in downtown Baghdad. Seven people were wounded, including three policemen.

- Police found three dead bodies in Baghdad neighborhoods today: two were found in Karkh bank; one in Dora and the other was in Amil. While the third one was found in Fudhailiyah on Risafa bank.

Mosul

- A bomb planted under an oil tanker detonated near an army check point in Arabi neighborhood in Mosul city around 3 pm. Two people were wounded including one soldier.

- A suicide truck bomber targeted the emergency police headquarter in New Mosul neighborhood in Mosul city around 6:15 pm. Two policemen were killed and 45 others wounded, including 15 policemen. Also 50 houses got damaged in that explosion.

Kirkuk

- A suicide car bomber targeted a police check point near the fourth bridge in Ghazala neighborhood in downtown Kirkuk. Five policemen were killed and twenty three were wounded.

Salahuddin

- A bomb planted under a parked car detonated near a restaurant in Tikrit. Three people were injured.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Baghdad Mayor: US Tanks Run Amok and There'll Never be a Street Named for Bush in Baghdad

The USG Open Source Center translates a recent interview with Baghdad mayor Sabir al-Isawi in a Czech newspaper. The mayor 1) denies that the US troop 'surge' is the major reason for the reduced violence in Iraq; 2) complains bitterly that US armored corps drivers continually run their tanks over lampposts, gardens and other things in Baghdad streets instead of going around them; and 3) says that that the US military too often goes in with guns blazing unnecessarily and arbitrarily detains too many Iraqis, treating them in ways that contravene human rights standards.

He also says plainly that there will never be a street in Baghdad named after George W. Bush!

Mayor al-Isawi seems to be more cordial toward Iran than toward the US. The Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim won the January 2005 provincial elections in Baghdad, so I presume al-Isawi is a member of ISCI, which was formed in exile in Iran in 1982 under the guidance of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Baghdad Mayor Criticizes US Troops' Insensitiveness, Human Rights Abuses
Interview with Baghdad Mayor Sabir al-Isawi by Teodor Marjanovic in Prague; date not given: "'I Have Survived Four Assassination Attempts:' Baghdad Mayor Says Americans Are Often Hard To Deal With and Explains What Has Calmed Down Sectarian Killing in His Country"
iDnes.cz
Saturday, September 20, 2008
OSC Translated Excerpt

. . . (Marjanovic) What has caused the improvement of the situation in Iraq?

(Al-Isawi) There are two reasons. The uprising of the Sunnite tribes against Al-Qa'ida as a result of its unending bomb attacks. Initially, Al-Qa'ida had enjoyed those tribes' support. The other cause is Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's resolve with which he crushed the Shiite militias in Basra and Baghdad's Sadr City. Even without the help and, at the beginning, knowledge of the United States.

(Marjanovic) They used to say that Al-Maliki was in cahoots with these militias.

(Al-Isawi) Yes, and he proved that it was not true. The political parties, then, finally began to approach the government. It became evident that the prime minister did not want to have anything in common with these Iran-supported armed groups.

(Marjanovic) Here in the West, the reports go that the crucial role was played by the increase of American soldiers last spring.

(Al-Isawi) This was a partial reason for the calming down. Another such partial reason was that the Iraqi armed forces are now working much better. But the two things I mentioned are certainly the most important.

(Marjanovic) When you look back, do you think that the Iraqis should be grateful to the Americans for something?

(Al-Isawi) Yes and no. As Iraqis, we should feel gratitude that the Americans brought down the hated Saddam regime for us. But -- and I wish to say it very strongly -- so long as the Americans continue to be stuck in their ruts, the last remainder of gratitude will evaporate. They ought to be able to be liberators and not act as occupiers.

(Marjanovic) Be concrete.

(Al-Isawi) During detentions, they do not heed human rights. They carry out raids without reason. They shoot more than necessary. They shrink from quickly determining the exact relations between the two states so that the situation no longer is that one occupies while the other obeys.

(Marjanovic) And how do they complicate the life for you,as the City Hall?

(Al-Isawi) They are driving their heavy vehicles and tanks insensitively, through people's gardens. They crush sidewalks. They demolish lampposts. They are driving, there is a post, but they will not go around it.

(Marjanovic) Can you complain?

(Al-Isawi) Yes, we call them and sometimes they pay for repairs. But this is not just the question of money. One example: it took us six months to build an orchard. Then arrived a tank, and the six months' efforts were destroyed within a moment.

(Marjanovic) But you are aware of the thousands of Americans who perished in Iraq.

(Al-Isawi) Of course, they must not be forgotten.

(Marjanovic) Can you imagine a street or a square in Baghdad being named after George W Bush one day?

(Al-Isawi) No. (passage omitted on Baghdad citizens' daily troubles)

(Description of Source: Prague iDnes.cz in Czech -- Website of best-selling, independent, center-right daily; most popular print source among decisionmakers; URL: http://idnes.cz)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sunni Baghdad Dark on Satellite; Kagan Proved Wrong Again

Fred Kagan has once more been proved wrong. He called the ethnic cleansing of Sunni Arabs in Baghdad a 'myth.' For all their arrogance and academic credentials, the Neoconservatives keep having trouble with that reality-based thing.

Satellite imaging that shows Sunni Arab neighborhoods in Baghdad dark gives evidence that the ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis by Shiite militias accounts for the fall in violence in Baghdad, not the extra troops Bush sent, called the 'surge.'

'Night light in neighborhoods populated primarily by embattled Sunni residents declined dramatically just before the February 2007 surge and never returned, suggesting that ethnic cleansing by rival Shiites may have been largely responsible for the decrease in violence for which the U.S. military has claimed credit, the team reports in a new study based on publicly available satellite imagery. "Essentially, our interpretation is that violence has declined in Baghdad because of intercommunal violence that reached a climax as the surge was beginning," said lead author John Agnew, a UCLA professor of geography and authority on ethnic conflict. "By the launch of the surge, many of the targets of conflict had either been killed or fled the country, and they turned off the lights when they left." The night-light signature in four other large Iraqi cities — Kirkuk, Mosul, Tikrit and Karbala — held steady or increased between the spring of 2006 and the winter of 2007, the UCLA team found. None of these cities were targets of the surge. Baghdad's decreases were centered in the southwestern Sunni strongholds of East and West Rashid, where the light signature dropped 57 percent and 80 percent, respectively, during the same period.'

I've been saying this for some time. US officials more or less admitted it to Karen DeYoung of the Washington Post last December (and reading between the lines they also seem not to have been so disturbed by the ethnic cleansing and seemed to have hoped that those people would just find someplace else to live.

I visited some of these displaced Iraqis in one of the 'some place elses,' i.e. Amman, in August; 50,000 of them are considered 'vulnerable' by the aid agencies and their situation is desperate. Some Iraqis in exile told me that they could never return. They were Sunni and their own neighborhoods were now 100% Shiite. Or their spouse was a Shiite and they were Sunni, and there was no mixed neighborhood left where they would feel comfortable. Some 25% had had a child kidnapped. Many had received personal threats from militias that they are convinced are still in their old neighborhood.(E.g. 'If Ahmad Adib shows his face in this neighborhood again he will be shot on sight .. .') Indeed, sometimes the militias track them down in Amman and threaten them there again. A lot of Iraqis in Jordan move from apartment to apartment frequently so as to avoid the long arm of the militias.

As noted, Fred Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute has denied the ethnic cleansing even took place. US military propagandists sometimes point to continued small Sunni enclaves such as Adhamiya in Baghdad as proof that there was no ethnic cleansing. But neighborhoods near Adhamiya that used to be mixed are almost all Shiite now. I'd guess that 700,000 or 800,000 Sunnis were ethnically cleansed from the capital from June 2006-September 2007. Imagine, to lose everything, to huddle dispossessed in a foreign land worrying where your next meal is coming from, and then to have the powerful and wealthy Kagans deny your very existence.

Oh. It isn't the first time for that sort of thing, is it?
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Provincial Election Law Stalled Again; Arab-Kurdish Disputes Deepen; Da'wa Security Committees Protested by Badr Head

The Iraqi parliament failed for a fifth time to pass a law on provincial elections.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that after months of wrangling in parliament over the enabling legislation for provincial elections, parliament has failed to find a mutually agreed-upon formula. Worse, the parliamentary debates on this issue have deepened the dispute between the Kurds and a Sunni-Shiite Arab coalition. There are fears that the sectarian civil war (between Shiites and Sunnis) will now be followed by an ethnic one, between Arabs and Kurds. The escalation of this conflict has been in significant ways impelled by the imposition of the Kurdish paramilitary, the Peshmerga, on areas outside Kurdistan proper. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said of the Kurds 2 days ago, "It is impossible for a state to arise without a central power," adding "political participation does not mean a vet excersized by one side against another . . ." Al-Maliki's spirited defense of a strong central government angered many Kurds. Al-Hayat says that US military commanders are petrified that the Shiite-Kurdish political alliance will fall apart and Arab-Kurdish fighting lead to a deterioration of the security situation.

CSM says that the fate of the 15,000 Iraqi prisoners still held by the US is a consideration in any draw-down of US troops. It is not clear that the Iraqi government could or would take over the prisoners or that it would be able expeditiously to hold hearings to clear inmates or send them for trial.

Last I knew, 2/3s of the US prisoners were Sunni Arabs, and I don't personally doubt that the al-Maliki government would be perfectly happy to take over their prisons. My guess is that the Shiites would be released pretty expeditiously. The idea the US interviewees in the article have that the US has arrested only the guilty and has quickly processed them is, well, susceptible of challenge let us say.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Hadi al-Amiri, head of the Badr Corps paramilitary is complaining that the al-Maliki government is using government funds to set up security committees in the southern, Shiite, provinces. He said that these committees are Federal government interference in a prerogative of the elected provincial councils. The article's title accuses al-Maliki of stacking these security committees with members of his how Da'wa Party. The Badr corps led by al-Amiri is the paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), and together they control most of the southern, Shiite provinces. So al-Amiri is making an argument for states' rights against the expansion of the prerogatives of the central government under al-Maliki. ISCI, Badr and Da'wa are allies at the federal level, but differ on issues of federalism,i.e. how strong the central government should be vis-a-vis the provinces.

A couple of days ago, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) succeeded in eliciting from an official of the GAO an admission that there has not in fact been much progress on the Bush benchmarks on Iraq.

'Washington, D.C. – Today, the House Budget Committee held a hearing on Iraq's Budget Surplus. While the US has a budget deficit of over $400 billion, the Government of Iraq has a budget surplus of $79 billion. During questioning by Congressman Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), Joseph Christoff, Director, International Affairs and Trade, for the U.S. Government Accountability Office, admitted that the Iraq troop surge has failed to achieve most of the benchmarks of success originally articulated by the Bush Administration in January 2007.'

The video of the exchange is here:



McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Karrada, central Baghdad at 8 a.m. Thursday, injuring two civilians.

A roadside bomb targeted a law enforcement patrol in Palestine Street, close to Mustansiriyah University, northeastern Baghdad at noon Thursday, injuring seven of the patrol members.

A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in Doura, southern Baghdad at five p.m. Thursday, injuring five soldiers.

One mortar round hit a military base in Garage al-Amana neighbourhood, central Baghdad, at 6.30 p.m. No casualties were reported.

Two unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad by Iraqi police today; one in Ghazaliyah and the other in al-Khullani.

Nineveh

A family of three from Tallafar who had come into the city of Mosul to issue passports was targeted by small arms fire from gunmen in a speeding car on Wednesday. The father was killed and the mother and daughter were severely injured.

Gunmen opened fire upon civilians in 17 Tammouz neighbourhood, Thursday, killing one civilian.

A roadside bomb Targeted an Iraqi army patrol near al-Khansaa Hospital, al-Sukkar neighbourhood killing two soldiers, injuring one.

Police found a parked car bomb in al-Hadbaa neighbourhood and sent for the bomb squad to defuse it at 11 p.m. Wednesday. But the car bomb detonated before the squad got to the site, injuring one policeman.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

7 US Soldiers Killed; Al-Maliki Doubts Security Agreement

A helicopter crash in southern Iraq killed 7 US troops on Wednesday. The crash may or may not be the result of hostile action by elements of the Mahdi Army.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki signaled on Wednesday that the security agreement being negotiated by Iraq with the Bush administration is in trouble. Apparently the big sticking point is that the US continues to demand that US soldiers in Iraq retain their immunity from prosecution for crimes in the Iraqi courts.

A US soldier is in custody on possible murder charges in an incident that left two other military personnel dead.

The Iraqi parliament seems unable to pass enabling legislation to allow provincial elections to be held. Some 128 parliamentarians (out of 275) are die hard opposed to the alternative, which is to hold the provincial elections under the old law, which makes people vote blind for party lists rather than for individuals.

Tariq Ali asks if the US war with Pakistan has begun.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Obama smeared by Taheri on Iraq Troop Withdrawals; Journalist Notorious for False Story on Iranian Jews; Odierno Warns Iraq still Unstable

Amir Taheri, the rightwing Iranian 'journalist' who is the least accurate reporter to feign practicing journalism since Gutenberg invented movable metal type accused Barack Obama of seeking "a deal to delay US troops' from Iraq when he was in Baghdad last summer.

That makes no sense. The Iraqis have published their negotiating points, and they have been saying that they want a US withdrawal by 2010. That is virtually the same as Obama's plan, so it is highly unlikely that he was urging them to extend that timetable to 2011 or beyond. Taheri has garbled what Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari told him.

The Obama campaign said,

'But Obama's national security spokeswoman Wendy Morigi said Taheri's article bore "as much resemblance to the truth as a McCain campaign commercial."

In fact, Obama had told the Iraqis that they should not rush through a "Strategic Framework Agreement" governing the future of US forces until after President George W. Bush leaves office, she said.

In the face of resistance from Bush, the Democrat has long said that any such agreement must be reviewed by the US Congress as it would tie a future administration's hands on Iraq.

"Barack Obama has never urged a delay in negotiations, nor has he urged a delay in immediately beginning a responsible drawdown of our combat brigades," Morigi said.'

Taheri can't get his facts right. He alleged in his piece that Iraq would form a new government after elections late this year. False. What are being planned are only provincial elections. The al-Maliki government is safe until early 2010 when the next round of parliamentary elections is scheduled to be held. Since al-Maliki has a stable constituency in the Shite south, 60% of the population, it is a little unlikely that he will be unseated.

Amir Taheri is the one who tried to get a false story started a couple of years ago that the Iranian government had passed a law requiring Iranian Jews to wear special clothing. The story was false and was denied by the Jewish member of the Iranian parliament. Taheri has a connection to the Neoconservative 'talent' agency, Benador Associates, whose clients helped get up the Iraq War.

If McCain trusts Taheri's account on this one, he is setting himself up for a fall.

Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno has taken over command of US troops in Iraq and began his duties with a warning of how difficult things still are.

The success of Republican Party propaganda that Iraq is "calm" now has the disadvantage for US commanders facing daily violence that it may mislead Congress and the public into cutting the support the commanders feel is still very much necessary.

Ned Parker of the LAT argues that Iraq is now in the hands of Iran and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in any case, and increasingly that the scope for American action there is limited. Al-Maliki has gotten control of the Iraqi military and intelligence apparatuses and makes his decisions independently of the US. Iran has helped convince the Mahdi Army to stand down, allowing him to consolidate control over the Shiite areas. He will take control of 50,000 Sunnis in the awakening councils on October 1 and may demobilize them and even prosecute some of them for past acts of terrorism. He has also started projecting state power into parts of Iraq now patrolled by the Kurdish Peshmerga, provoking a conflict with the Kurds of some bitterness. Kurdistan Regional Government president Massoud Barzani warned on Sunday that Kurdish troops in the Iraqi army could mutiny if the Arab-Kurdish conflict deepened. Barzani's outrage derives from his realization that Baghdad is reasserting itself under al-Maliki.

The Bush administration has declared itwill confiscate bank accounts and assets in the United States of the Association of Muslim Scholars, a clerical political party of Sunni fundamentalists, which Washington accuses of plotting terrorist actions against the Green Zone. The AMS, which has no assets anyplace the US treasury department could get at them, denies the charges.


Iraq is being flooded with weapons and Amnesty International says that the US and the UK are doing too little to interdict them.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

35 Killed in Bombings, 73 Wounded; Petraeus Leaves Iraq Better than He Found It

In Baladruz, in Diyala Province east of Baghdad, a female suicide bomber attacked a homecoming party for an Iraqi soldier just released from nearly a year of detention in a US prison in Iraq. The bombing killed 22 persons and wounded 33. The returning prisoner, Ahmad Shukri al-Tamimi, appears to have been a Shiite who was accused of fighting for Iran-backed militias. Likely he was killed by a Sunni group such as the Islamic State of Iraq or the 1920 Revolution Brigades. The bombing killed a number of high-ranking police officers in Baladruz,who were at the party. A lot of police in Diyala are Shiite because the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim won the provincial elections there in January, 2005. Diyala is though to actually have a Sunni majority.

In Baghdad, guerrillas set off 2 bombs near the passport office, killing 13 people and wounding 40, about half of them police.

Gen. David Petraeus is leaving Iraq, refusing to engage in glib talk of victory, and providing the best rationale for deploying politics to end the war I've heard:

' In a telephone interview with The Associated Press on Sunday, Petraeus said experience in Iraq shows it will take political and economic progress as well as military action to tackle increased violence in Afghanistan. "You don't kill or capture your way out of an industrial strength insurgency," he said.'

I hope the next president is listening.

Petraeus has great virtues as a commander, the chief of which in my view is that he genuinely cares about people. He really, really wanted to stop shoppers in bazaars from being blown to bits, and by God if he didn't in fact cut down on that sort of thing. He is too smart to think the 'surge' did it all, and knows that the situation is still fragile. Another of his virtues is that he understands the need to deal with people where they are. He did not try to ignore or crush the Sunnis and the Sadrists. He dealt with them. A lot of supporters of the Da`wa Party and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, both fundamentalist Shiite parties, are annoyed with him for striking those deals, because they are convinced that they can crush their enemies. And as long as the new Iraqi government has that attitude, the peace is fragile indeed.

Of course, he's a general so you also have to expect him to act like one, i.e to kill the enemy. We won't know for some time all the on-the-ground policies he deployed, and of course Bob Woodward intimated that he presided over a Phoenix Project-like dirty war of assassination of Sunni insurgents. My own guess is that even if such a tactic was pursued, it was the politicking that made the real difference.

Aljazeera English reports on the transition:



Iraq's vice president, Tariq al-Hashemi, a Sunni, warned Monday that the current policy of the Iraqi govenment of arresting members of the Awakening Councils for past crimes risks pushing them back into the arms of the Sunni fundamentalist radicals.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

28 Killed, 40 Wounded; Peshmerga Killed in Roadside Bombing; 4 Sharqiya Staff Kidnapped, Killed

In a continuing wave of violence in Iraq, 28 persons were killed and 40 wounded on Saturday. Among the dead were 9 members of the Kurdish Peshmerga paramilitary, killed by a roadside bomb near the disputed city of Khanaqin in Diyala. Arabs and Kurds are increasingly at odds over the future of this city, which Kurds wish to incorporate into the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the director of the Sharqiyyah television channel is blaming the official Iraqiyyah television channel for a campaign of vilification of Sharqiyyah correspondents, which he said led to the kidnapping and killing of 4 Sharqiyyah staff in Mosul on Saturday. Sharqiyyah is run by a former director of television and radio under Saddam Hussein and so is considered a Baath organ and viewed with suspicion by Shiites and Kurds, who control the Iraqiyyah channel.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Kurdish politicians are now demanding that an article be struck from the proposed Status of Forces Agreement between the Bush administration and the al-Maliki government. The offending paragraph permits the Iraqi central government to strike similar security deals with its neighbors. Presumably the Kurds are afraid of being constrained by a Federal government SOFA with, e.g., Turkey or Iran. Al-Maliki spokesman Ali Dabbagh expressed surprise at the demand, saying that the Kurds had for some time been urging a swift passage of the SOFA and had never objected to that paragraph before.

The government's increasing conflicts with the Kurds are also apparent in the collapse of a parliamentary committee appointed by speaker Mahmud al-Mashhadani to attempt to resolve the differences over Kirkuk so that the law on provincial elections can be passed. Members of the committee accused their Kurdish colleagues of continually bringing up issues that had nothing to do with the provincial elections, and thus derailing the party-based talks. There is a dispute about whether Kirkuk province should vote at the same time as the other provinces, and how power should be distributed there. The Kurdish leadership would like to incorporate oil-rich Kirkuk into the Kurdistan Regional Government, but Arabs and Turkmen object.

Amit Paley of WaPo finds that the Peshmerga have quietly expanded into 300 sq.mi.of neighboring territory, incorporating it de facto into the Kurdistan Regional Government even though it lies in Iraq proper. The US military,he reports,sees this Kurdish expansion as destabilizing.

Patrick Cockburn argues that Iraq violence is down, but not because of the US troop escalation or 'surge' of last year.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

' Baghdad

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Dora neighborhood(south Baghdad). Four policemen were wounded.

- Around 11:30 am, a roadside bomb targeted a national police patrol in Karrada neighborhood in central Baghdad. Three people were killed including one policeman and five others were wounded (including 2 policemen).

- Around noon, a bomb planted under a civilian car detonated near Adela Khatoon mosque in Bab Al-Mutham (north Baghdad). Four people were injured.

-Around 6:30 pm, a roadside bomb detonated near Mulla Huish mosque in Jamia’a neighborhood(west Baghdad). Three people were wounded.

- Around 8 pm, a bomb planted under a car in Adhemiyah neighborhood(north Baghdad) detonated when it stopped near a check point for the Sahwa members. Six people were wounded (three Sahwa members and three civilians).

- Police found two dead bodies in Baghdad neighborhoods today: One was found in Tobchi in western Baghdad in Karkh bank. While one was found in Binouk neighborhood in eastern Baghdad in Risafa bank.

Diyala

- A roadside bomb targeted a Peshmerga patrol on the way between Khanaqeen city and Sadiyah town (east of Baquba). Nine members were killed including a colonel and three others were wounded.

Mosul

- Around 12;30 pm, the Sharqiya crew of Iraqi satellite channel in Mosul who were 4 persons( the local manager, two camermen and driver) were kidnapped and then killed by gunmen who broke out the house where the crew was filming in Zanjili (west of Mosul). The four dead bodies were found 30 minutes later in AL-Bursa neighborhood in Zanjili.

Basra

-On Friday night, one civilian was killed and three others were wounded including a traffic policeman when an Iraqi soldier opened fire randomly in Abu Al-khaseeb market(about 13 miles south of Basra). The spokesman of the Iraqi army in Basra said that it was an accident when the soldier pulled the trigger by mistake and he is now in detention.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bombings at Dujail, Sinjar Kill over 30, wound 85

Two big bombings targeted Shiites on Friday. A bomb killed over 30 persons and wounded over 40 in Dujail, a largely Shiite city northeast of Baghdad. Earlier on Friday, a bomb at the Dhakir al-Din Mosque in Sinjar killed two and wounded 15.

The security situation has deteriorated in Mosul, (pop. 1.8 mn), Iraq's second largest city, which lies in the north of the country. Reuters reports that "U.S. military officials say attacks fell from around 130 per week just before the May offensive to 30 a week in Nineveh by July, before creeping up to 60-70 per week."

When you've got 60 attacks a week in the country's second largest city, things are not "calm."

Tim Cocks did interviews with residents of Mosul: "People here are very afraid," said Nisreen Mustafa, a housewife. "We always heard explosions before the operation and we still hear them a lot now. What's changed?"

Cocks points to Arab-Kurdish ethnic divisions in the city as one reason there has not been better sharing of intelligence on guerrillas among residents and authorities.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Sadrist MP Diya' Shawqi expressed his opposition on Friday at the Friday prayers in Kufa to any agreement at all on security arrangements between the Iraqi government and the United States, on the grounds that it would inevitably legitimize the occupation. The worshippers staged a demonstration against the security agreement after Friday prayers.

The same article reports that on another front, another prominent Sadrist, Abd al-Shaikh Abd al-Hadi al-Muhammadawi (who yesterday led Friday prayers in Sadr City) said, "We deplore the incorporation of the Awakening Councils into the Iraqi security forces, and enabling them to decide the fate of the Iraqis." Muhammadawi ordinarily directs the Sadr Movement office in Karbala. He added, "The Awakening Councils were enemies of the Iraqi people just yesterday."

Abdul Mahdi Karbala'i, a representative of Grand Ayatollah Sistani, called for a consensus-based resolution of the crisis over Kirkuk. He said that Sistani affirmed the important of resorting to dialogue in calming passions on this issue.

Andrew Bacevich on the anniversary of Sept. 11, which, contrary to Sarah Palin, had nothing to do with Iraq and everything to do with Neoconservative hubris.

McClatchy reports other political violence in Iraq on Friday:

' Baghdad

Five civilians were injured by an adhesive bomb that was stuck to a civilian car. The bomb exploded when the car reached a checkpoint of the Iraqi army in Mansour neighborhood in west Baghdad around 2:00 p.m.

Around 5:00 an adhesive bomb that was stuck to a car exploded in Bonouk neighborhood in east Baghdad. Two cars were destroyed in the explosion.

Gunmen threw a grenade inside a house in al Jihad neighborhood in south Baghdad around 6:00 p.m. thirteen civilians were wounded.

Police found one un identified body in Ur neighborhood.

Nineveh

Gunmen broke in a house in al Karama neighborhood in Mosul city and killed a family (parents and their son)

Three civilians were killed and fifteen others were wounded when a suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest detonated while prayers were leaving a Shiite mosque after finishing Friday prayers in Sinjar town southwest of Mosul city around 2:00 p.m. . .


Basra

A civilian was injured by a roadside bomb that targeted a British patrol in al jininiyah neighborhood in north Basra.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bombings in Karbala; US Plot against Maliki? Japanese say Sayonara to Iraq

Two bombs in the Shiite holy city of Karbala were detonated near the shrine of Imam Husayn, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. The explosions killed 3 and wounded 15. Because of the extreme religious sensitivity of the Shiite shrines in Iraq, these bombings had security implications far beyond what is apparent on the surface.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Iraqi government continues to insist that US troops in Iraq will not have legal immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts for criminal activity in Iraq.

A secret report by a Kurdish political party speculates that the US might kill or depose Iraqi Prime minister Nuri al-Maliki because of his insistence on US troops being out of Iraq by 2011. Note that speculation about what the US might do by a Kurdish party doesn't tell you very much about what the US might do unless its leaders are awfully well connected in Washington and have been told these things by someone high up.

The The Awakening Council movement in the Sunni areas of Iraq is coming to an end, implies McClatchy. The Iraqi government will take over payments to them on October 1 and most will be given make-work desk jobs as bureaucrats. Only 20,000 of the nearly 100,000 irregulars will be absorbed into official Iraqi security forces, according to the government. The Awakening fighters are very suspicious that the government will not honor its pledges, and, indeed, that it may turn on them and prosecute them for the acts of terrorism many of them engaged in before joining the Awakening Councils. In fact, Iraqi government officials have threatened them with prosecution if they don't stop making demands on the state. I can only imagine that the Awakening Council fighters are also afraid that if they are disarmed and given a desk job, they will become sitting duck for reprisals from the fundamentalist vigilantes on whom they had turned.

Japan is ending its small remaining military mission in Iraq, which has been extremely unpopular with the Japanese public. The Liberal Democratic Party is facing difficult elections, and its partner, the New Komeito Party, is strongly pacifist. This right-of-center, pro-peace party is supported by the Buddhist New Religious Movement, Soka Gakkai. How come Japanese Buddhists are pro-peace and so many American Christians are pro-war?

The Japanese pull-out is one of many planned by US allies this year, as the UN Security Council authorization for foreign troops in Iraq comes to an end in December.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq F-16 Purchase Roils Relations with Kurds; Bush's Minimal Withdrawal Points to Minimal Gains; Al-Maliki's Head of Security Injured

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that a big dispute has broken out between the three largest blocs in parliament. The government has so far been characterized by an alliance of the Shiite Iraqi Accord Front with the Kurdistan Alliance. But now the Shiites want to equip the Iraqi military with F-16s.

The day before yesterday, the Kurdish speaker of parliament demanded that any such purchase be attendant on a pledge by the Iraqi government never to use the planes against the Kurdish people.

Jalaluddin Saghir, popular Shiite preacher and a member of parliament, said that it is impossible to compare situation in the late zeroes to that of the of the former regime, and that the current, representative government would never persecute the Kurdish people. He said that the arms purchases were necessary to defend the country after the foreign troops withdrew. He insisted that this move was a clear prerogative of the central government. He observed that the current government in Iraq poses no threat to its neighbors.

MP Abdul Karim al-Samarra'i, who serves on the Security and Defense Committee, represents the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front; he called the Kurdish demands "unacceptable" and impossible to implement. He said there had to be a broad agreement on the need to equip the Iraqi military.

Among the more dangerous political developments in Iraq could be a collapse of the Shiite-Kurdish alliance, followed by a joint Sunni-Shiite Arab alliance against the Kurds.

Al-Maliki's chief of security was severely injured by a bomb Tuesday morning in Baghdad. This attack is quite ominous but does not seem to have gotten much press in English. See below.

The parliament of Kuwait also expressed concern about Iraqi rearmament, drawing a rebuke from Ali al-Adib, spokesman for the Da'wa Party of PM Nuri al-Maliki, for interfering in the domestic affairs of Iraq.

If "victory is in sight" in Iraq, then why is Bush only drawing down 8,000 troops by the end of his presidency? That will leave 138,000 in Iraq. The number of US troops in Iraq in March, 2006? 133,000. McClatchy quotes Ret. Army Lt. Col. John Nagl, co-author of the army's new counter-terrorism manual:

'"The security gains are real and tangible but fragile," said Nagl, who visited Iraq last month. "If you declare victory too soon, whether in a province or the whole country, al Qaida can come back. And it is a whole lot less work and a whole lot less blood spilled keeping them out once you have cleared an area than it is pulling out prematurely and then having to go back and clear them out again." '

The US will soon be the only troop force from the original 'coalition of the willing' in Iraq. The British, Poles, etc. are going home.

The reconvening of the Iraqi parliament offered little hope that it would pass a law any time soon enabling provincial elections to go forward. The issue of how to arrange the elections in the oil-rich province of Kirkuk has roiled the legislative process. Kurds want to incorporate Kirkuk into the Kurdistan Regional Government, whereas Arabs and Turkmen reject this move.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Iraqi Army, which had entered Kirkuk city because of civil disturbances there, has withdrawn to its outskirts. There has been a tug of war in recent months between the Iraqi military and the Kurdish paramilitary (Peshmerga) over which parts of Iraq each can patrol. Kurds insist that no federal troops must set foot on their territory.

McClatchy says that one reasons the US commanders are so nervous about the possibility that violence might return is precisely the possibility that provincial elections will not be held this year and could even slip to next summer! The Sunni-majority provinces have not had proper local elections. Such elections would be important in the Sunni provinces to establish legitimate government and to begin the process of incorporating the Awakening Councils into formal government structures. As long as this step is not taken, their reconciliation with the Shiite-dominated central government is shaky and Sunni-Shiite violence could break out again.

Al-Zaman says that Ali Adib, spokesman for al-Maliki, threatened the members of the Awakening Councils with being tried for terrorism if they did not stop demanding to be incorporated into the official police.

Another concern among the US brass is that guerrillas are making a push to take over the northern city of Mosul. All that reporting about how al-Maliki's having sent some troops up there had restored central government control and how things were calm now in Iraq's second largest city, was apparently mere spin. I have been suspicious of how the Iraqi army could have established control without fighting any major battles against the guerrillas.

Cholera has broken out in Hilla, a city south of Baghdad. Al-Hayat says that Iraqi parliamentarians blamed the central government for it. Al-Zaman says that Iran and Kuwait closed their borders with Iraq to keep the cholera out.

Sharon Weinberger at Wired speculates on the high-tech special ops capability that Bob Woodward says allowed the US military to target and kill many guerrilla leaders in Baghdad. She writes,

'I believe he is talking about the much ballyhooed (in defense geek circles) "Tagging, Tracking and Locating" program; here's a briefing on it from Special Operations Command. These are newfangled technologies designed to track people from long distances, without the targeted people realizing they are being tracked.'

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

' Baghdad

General Hasen Maeen, from the Prime Minister's office was targeted with an adhesive bomb stuck onto the car. He and two of his security personnel were severely injured in the explosion that took place in Harthiyah, central Baghdad, at 7.30 a.m. Tuesday.

An adhesive IED was stuck onto the car of the bureau chief of al-Arabiyah satellite station in Baghdad, Jowad al-Hattab in Salhiyah neighbourhood, central Baghdad. Al-Hattab called the security forces after checking his car and suspecting something at around 11 a.m. Tuesday, but the bomb detonated without casualties, before they arrived.

A roadside bomb targeted a restaurant in Wahran intersection, Baladiyat, eastern Baghdad, killing one civilian, injuring six people including three policemen.

Two roadside bombs were discovered and detonated under control, without casualties in Zayuna.

A roadside bomb exploded under a coach [bus] in Mansour, central Baghdad at 7 p.m. injuring three civilians.

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol near Wathiq Square, Karrada at 9 p.m. injuring seven people including five policemen.

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Beirut Square, eastern Baghdad at 9.30 p.m. injuring two civilians.

Two unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad byIraqi police today; one in Shoala and the other in Zafaraniyah.

Nineveh

The body of a policeman was found in al-Shaareen neighbourhood in the city of Mosul.

Gunmen threw a grenade at a police patrol in al-Zinjili neighbourhood in Mosul at noon, Tuesday injuring two policemen.

Salahuddin

An IED targeted a police patrol in al-Isaaqi town, to the south of Tikrit, killing one policeman, injuring three.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Dirty Wars in Baghdad

We know Iraq has been the scene of several wars in recent years. But it seems increasingly clear that it has been a set of dirty wars.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Ali al-Lami, an Iraqi politician, protege of Ahmad Chalabi,and member of the Debaathification Committee,is being charged by a high unnamed American official with providing information on Iraqis to the "special groups" (Iranian-run cells within Iraqi Shiite militias like the Mahdi Army), which was useful to them in assassinating these individuals.

Now that is "debaathification" with extreme prejudice!

The official said al-Lami made regular trips to Iran, Lebanon and Russia (?!) in support of the aims of Iranian intelligence.

So what is being alleged is essentially that the United States (Rumsfeld & Paul Bremer) installed on the Debaathification Commission a secret agent of Iran who was running Iran-backed death squads based on the information to which he became privy by virtue of being on the commission! The same article carries allegations by Ahmad Chalabi that the car used in the attempted assassination against him last week came from an Iraqi government ministry.

This isn't a government,it is a mafia movie: The Godfather IV!

So you've been having Iran-backed assassination teams running all over the place killing Sunnis and helping ethnically cleanse them so Iran can nail down Baghad as a Shiite city, extending the region of Shiite dominance in Iraq west and north. And they have been working out of government ministries and agencies!

Of course we knew about the Sunni Arab death squads, which the US calls "al-Qaeda" if they are anti-American and "Sons of Iraq" if they take our money.

Now for yet another set of death squads. It is increasingly clear from press reporting, and from Bob Woodward's new book, that the Surge was not just 30,000 extra troops building blast walls.

The Surge was a dirty war. It was a vast effort at identifying, finding and assassinating the leaders of the Sunni Arab resistance.

Robert Parry writes:

' A third factor, which Woodward argued may have been the most significant, was the use of new highly classified U.S. intelligence tactics that allowed for rapid targeting and killing of insurgent leaders. Woodward agreed to withhold details of these secret techniques from his book so as not to undercut their continuing success.'

That is, US officers in Baghdad were playing Col Mathieu in a rerun of the Battle of Algiers, tracking down and killing the members of the Sunni resistance cells with ever increasing efficiency.

Crowing about the success of Surge wouldn't look so pretty if you were actually celebrating an assassination campaign.

Or, since the originally US-appointed Ali al-Lami was helping the Iranians to kill Sunni guerrillas, as well, we should say assassination campaigns in the plural.

One caveat: The French won the Battle of Algiers in the capital of their colony, 1954-1960. By 1962 they had nevertheless been forced out of Algeria anyway, by nationalist fighters outside Algiers. I am not saying the same thing will necessarily happen in a pacified Iraq. But it could.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

' Baghdad

Eleven civilians were injured by a roadside bomb in al Shabaka intersection in Palestine Street in east Baghdad around 7:00 a.m.

Around 7:45 a.m. Gunmen In New Baghdad neighborhood in east Baghdad opened fire targeting a vehicle for the ministry of displaced people migrants injuring four employees (3 females employees and the driver of the vehicle).

The guards of the minister of displaced people and migrants opened fire randomly in al Muthanna airport Street in downtown Baghdad killing a woman and inuring six civilians.

A civilian was killed and two people (a civilian and a policeman) were injured by an IED that targeted a police vehicle in al Wathiq intersection in Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad around 8:30 a.m.

Two civilians were injured by an adhesive bomb that was attached to a vehicle of the emergency battalion in Palestine Street around 2:00 p.m.

Gunmen threw a grenade towards a sedan car in Qahtan intersection in west Baghdad injuring two civilians who were in the car.

Police found one unidentified body in Sadr city.

Nineveh

On Sunday evening; a parked car bomb exploded in Qaiyara area south of Mosul targeting the commander of Hammam al Aleel training camp Colonel Yaseen Majeed. Majeed was injured with another two companions.

Two policemen were injured by an IED in Dorat al Yarmouk neighborhood in Mosul city on Sunday evening.

Gunmen opened fire upon the house of the deputy of Mosul governor Khisro Koran (Kurdish politician from the PDK Party) in al Faisaliyah neighborhood in east Mosul city. No casualties were reported.

A member of Rabi’a Sahwa council in of west of Mosul was injured by an adhesive bomb that was attached to his car on Sunday evening.

Gunmen killed a traffic police near his house in al Hadba’a neighborhood in west Mosul on Monday morning

A policeman was killed and four civilians were injured by a parked car bomb that targeted a police patrol in Bab Sinjar area west of Mosul city around 12:00 p.m. ten cars were damaged by the explosion.

Policemen opened fire upon a suicide car bomber who tried to attack a police check point in Um al Rabiain area west of Mosul city around 1:00 p.m.

Diyala

Gunmen attacked the house of Raad Rasheed; the Sahwa leader in Shirween area north of Baquba on Monday morning. The gunmen kidnapped Rasheed. While the patrols from the Iraqi army were chasing the kidnappers, a roadside bomb exploded. Three Iraqi soldiers were injured.

A civilian was killed by US army when he came from a bystreet driving his car towards US forces in downtown Baquba around 11:30. US military confirmed the incident.

Salahuddin

Two people were killed and four others were injured when a suicide car bomber attacked a police checkpoint in Biji city north of Tikrit city around 4:30 p.m.

Basra

A civilian was injured by a roadside bomb that targeted a convoy of the MNF in Baghdad Street in west Basra around 9:00 p.m.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Assassination Attempt on Chalabi; Baghdad Outraged at Bush Spying on Maliki; Iraq Seeks F-16s

A suicide bomber attempted to assassinate Ahmad Chalabi on Friday as the politician was returning home to the Mansur district. The bomb killed 6 bodyguards and wounded 17 persons, but missed its main target.

Advisor to the Ministry of Defence, Abdulameer Hasen Abbas was shot as he was driving near Shaab district in eastern Baghdad.

Iraqi officials expressed outrage at the revelation in Bob Woodward's new book that the Bush administration has been spying on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Iraqi spokesman Ali Dabbagh warned of future bad relations between Iraq and the CIA if the allegations proved true. Even Kurdish lawmaker Mahmud Osman denounced the spying as a breach of friendship.

Several hundred followers of Muqtada al-Sadr demonstrated against the US occupation in Kufa on Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a clerical representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called on Iraqis not to let their government off the hook with regard to the promises it had made to deliver basic services. At the Buratha mosque in north Baghdad, Jalal al-Din Saghir of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) demanded that the minister of electricity be fired and replaced with someone more competent.

The 16,000 US troops in Baghdad could be withdrawn from the capital by next June, allowed Gen. David Petraeus. The security agreement being negotiated between al-Maliki and Bush calls for US troops to withdraw from Iraqi cities to bases outside them by the end of June, 2009.

Over all, US troop levels could decline from 146,000 now to 139,000 by early January, a reduction of 7,000. (In November of 2007 there were 163,000 US troops in Iraq). In summer, 2005, there were 136,000 US troops in Iraq. The number was increased for the elections of Dec.2005, then reduced back to 133,000 in March, 2006. So as Bush goes out of office, there will still be more in early 2009 than there were early in his second term.

The Iraqi government is going on an arms buying spree in the military-industrial Mall of the US. It just inquired about 36 F-16 fighter jets, and is also seeking armored vehicles and helicopter gunships. In recent security operations in Basra and Sadr City, the Iraqi army was dependent on the US for crucial air support, and the al-Maliki government seems to determined to develop its own air capabilities. Likewise, Iraq will spend $11 bn. on weapons such as 140 Abrams tanks.

I have long held that until the Iraqi military can effectively deploy armor and helicopter gunships, it won't be able to act on its own to establish internal order in the country. I notice that in the Maysan campaign al-Maliki launched against the Sadrists in Amara this summer, Iraqi armor appears to have played a role.

Aljazeera English asks, 'Who controls Khanaqin,' examining the conflict between the Iraqi government in Baghdad and the Kurdish Peshmerga paramilitary over control of the eastern, largely Kurdish city in Diyala Province, near Iran.



There was a dispute on Friday between Kurdish and Shiite sources about whether government forces and the Peshmerga paramilitary had reached an agreement on the disputed city.

Rania Abouzeid at Time reports that many Baghdad voters are apathetic about provincial elections, uncertain that they will bring increased services such as electricity and potable water.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

7 Killed by US in FriendlyFire; China Deal to Gross $55 bn for Iraq

The US killed 7 Iraqi troops in a friendly fire incident on Wednesday.

What do you want to bet the incident gets brought up at the talks between the US and Iraq on a security agreement?

The Iraqi government has presented new proposals in its negotiations with the United States over a bilateral security agreement. Iraq says the US has three days to respond.

Iraq expects to gross $55 bn. on the 20-year oil services deal it just signed with China.

The Iraqi election commission says it will need four months to arrange for provincial elections from the moment parliament passes the necessary legislation.

Sarah Palin thinks that the Iraq War is a task from God. Well, it is true that none of the conventional explanations is much good.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Wednesday.

'Baghdad

- At dawn, Iraqi army, police and Sahwa check point on Tigris River opened fire on a suspected boat in the river in Tarmiyah (25 miles north of Baghdad). Later, the fire came from the boat and An American helicopter which arrived after having a call from that American boat. Six Iraqi members were killed and ten others were injured, police said. While the MNF-I press desk reply was “We have initial reports that while coalition forces were conducting operations against suspected AQI there was an incident involving weapons fire between Coalition and Iraqi Security Forces north of Tarmiyah, Baghdad. Reports indicate ISF sustained casualties. Coalition aircraft were involved in this incident. It is always regrettable when incidents of mistaken fire occur on the battlefield; a review of the circumstances is under way”.

- Around noon, a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol in Waziriyah neighborhood (north Baghdad). Two people were injured while there are no casualties reported on the America side.

- Police found one dead body in Baghdad today in Shaab neighborhood(north Baghdad).

Salahuddin

- An American squad raided a house in Alam village (about 6 miles north east of Tikrit). Tahseen Mikhlif who is a student was killed by that squad, police said. While the MNF-I says “Coalition forces killed a weapons facilitator in Tikrit during an operation to disrupt the AQI bombing network in the Tigris River Valley. Intelligence reports indicate the man was trafficking rockets and bombing components for a Tikrit-based cell, and may have had ties to the AQI propaganda network. When Coalition forces called out for occupants of the target building to surrender, several people came out but told the force one man was still inside. During a security sweep of the building, Coalition forces found the terrorist, dressed in women’s clothing and hiding under a bed with a rifle and military-style assault vest. Perceiving hostile intent, Coalition forces engaged and killed the armed terrorist, who was later determined to be the weapons facilitator. Coalition forces detained five suspected terrorists during the operation and found several weapons, body armor and bomb components”.

- Around 9 pm, a roadside bomb targeted the police patrol in downtown Tikrit near Nabaa restaurant. Some policemen injured in that incident police said.

Diyala

Around 10:30 am, a roadside bomb detonated in Muqdadiyah town(north east of Baquba).

- Around 11 am, a roadside bomb targeted an army patrol in Balad Ruz (east of Baquba). One soldier was killed and 4 others were injured.

Mosul

- A roadside bomb detonated in Mosul city targeted a police patrol. 6 people were injured including 4 policemen. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bombings in Mosul, Baghdad kill 11; Maliki's Conflict with Kurds Deepens; Anbar Sheikhs Angered by US Handover

DPA reports that "Seven people were killed in a car bombing in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul city Tuesday . . . a suicide bomber detonated his explosives-laden vehicle near an Iraqi army checkpoint in the eastern al-Quds neighbourhood, killing seven people and wounding seven. . . In Baghdad twin attacks that targeted police patrols left four people dead and 14 injured, the Voice of Iraq (VOI) news agency reported."

Reuters has more.

Among the dead was one US soldier, who died in a non-combat related incident.

Kurdistan president Masoud Barzani calls the al-Maliki government "totalitarian," comparing it to Saddam's tyranny. He warns that if a referendum is not held soon in Kirkuk province over whether it will join the Kurdistan Regional Government that Barzani heads, he will act to support the Kirkuk council's call for the city to be annexed into Kurdistan. Barzani's frustrations are clearly boiling over in this interview, and signal how near a military confrontation his Peshmerga security forces are with the Iraqi army and other Iraqi groups such a s Arabs and Turkmen.

Jonathan Steele's sources underline that if the Iraqi army insists on going into Kurdish regions in the north of Diyala Province, there could be a military confrontation between it and the Peshmerga. The crisis over control of security in the city of Khanaqin remains unresolved.

Joost Hilterman writing at Abu Aardvark also sees the situation as dire.

Time reports that America's tribal allies in al-Anbar province are angry that the US turned the province over to the Iraqi government. The Awakening Council and tribal leaders fear that the Baghdad government will use its control over the police and army to benefit the Iraqi Islamic Party, which currently controls the province but was elected with only 2% of the vote in January, 2005. The IIP is part of the Iraqi Accord Front, made up of Sunni fundamentalists, who recently rejoined the al-Maliki government. Money graf:

' Only a handful of the 40 or so Awakening leaders attended the ceremony in Ramadi, a snub that Sheikh Natah says was intended as a clear message to the government. At heart is a power struggle between the Awakening council and the Iraqi Islamic Party . . . Unlike the last time around in 2005, the Sunni tribal elders are eager to contest the polls, and say they wanted U.S. troops to remain in Anbar until after the elections to help ensure a free and fair ballot. They also want their key ally, police chief Major General Tareq Youssef al A'sal al Dulaimi, reinstated to the position he was ousted from just a few days ago. (Dulaimi was removed for unspecified "administrative" reasons.) The Awakening members say Dulaimi's sudden removal, which was approved by the Interior Ministry, has cemented their fears that their local Sunni rivals in the Iraqi Islamic Party are maneuvering to gain control of Anbar's 28,000-strong police force and purge it of tribal loyalists. . . . "If the Islamic Party continues to pressure the government to remove the Awakening members from the security forces ... then there is a high likelihood that Anbar will return to violence," Sheikh Natah says.'

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the US military has decided not to hand over security to the Iraqis in 6 ethnically mixed provinces until after the US elections. They include Salahuddin, Mosul, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk and Hilla. The 12 provinces in which the US has given the lead to Iraqi forces on security are more ethnically or religiously homogeneous, in the Shiite south or the Kurdish north.

AP reports that Baghdad is still very dangerous despite lowered death tolls from political violence:

' Small scale bombings and shootings persist in the capital — each a reminder that the war is not over and that Baghdad remains a place where no trip is routine and residents are still guided by precautions. Most won't drive at night. Many try to avoid heavily clogged streets, remembering that suicide bombers and other attackers intent on killing large numbers of civilians favor traffic jams or congested areas . . . [in August] at least 360 civilians were killed and more than 470 wounded in violence throughout the country, according to an Associated Press count. '

That would be 4,320 civilians killed in political violence every year if the level stayed that low. (I take it this number excludes killed 'insurgents' and Iraqi security forces, so that actual number of war-related deaths would be much higher annually.)

It is estimated that 75,000 persons have died in the civil war in Sri Lanka since 1982, or 2800 a year.

Iraq is higher, just with regard to civilian casualties.

The Kashmir conflict is estimated to have killed 70,000 persons since 1988, or about 3500 a year.

Iraq is higher.

In the Lebanon Civil War of 1975-1990, it is estimated that at least 100,000 persons were killed, 75,000 civilians and 25,000 military.

If we extrapolated out Iraq's August death rate for civilians over 15 years, that would be 64,000 or not far from the toll in Lebanon's war.

Let me repeat: The level of violence at this moment in Iraq is similar to what prevailed on average during one of the 20th century's worst ethnic civil wars! It is still higher than the casualty rates in Sri Lanka and Kashmir, two of the worst ongoing conflicts in the world.

Only in an Orwellian society could our press declare the relative decline in monthly death tolls in Iraq to constitute "calm" in an absolute sense.

And that is if the August levels are taken as the baseline and if the numbers continue to be that low. If we averaged deaths during the previous 12 months, the baseline would be much higher.

The current Iraq Civil War is one of the world's most deadly continuing conflicts, worse than Sri Lanka and Kashmir and on a par with the 15-year long Lebanon Civil War!
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Turns over Al-Anbar; Is al-Maliki Too Cocky?

The US has handed over security duties in al-Anbar Province to Iraqi troops and police. Maj. Gen. John Kelly warns,however,that al-Anbar needs an infusion from the central government of cash for reconstruction if the province is to avoid going into insurgency yet again.

McClatchy reports on fears of American officials that Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki has become over-confident. Many of the relative successes his troops have had have depended on American close air support and logistical help, something these observers do not believe he can dispense with so soon.

There are also worries that al-Maliki wants to take over the Awakening Councils so that he can purge the Sunni Arabs serving in them.

The article also reveals that there has been a deterioration in the security situation in Basra in recent weeks, with a spike in assassinations. The American official who admitted this deterioration had to remain anonymous since his assessment is more negative than the facade put up by the Bush administration. It is a hell of a note when propaganda is the official story and people have to hide behind aliases if they just want to speak the truth.

Raed translates a leaked draft of the security agreement being negotiated between al-Maliki and Bush. Despite al-Maliki's emphasis in news conferences on preserving Iraq sovereignty, the draft agreement subordinates Iraq to the US military in several articles.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

' Baghdad

Three civilians were injured by an adhesive bomb that was attached to their car. The incident took place in al Taharriyat intersection in Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad around 12:30 p.m.

Around 7:00 pm. An IED explosion targeted the car of Emad Sa’id Jasim al Mish’hadani, the leader of the Sahwa council in Tarmiyah north of Baghdad. Al Mish’hadani was injured seriously.

Police found one unidentified body in Talbiyah neighborhood in east Baghdad.

Kirkuk

A child was killed and two other children were injured by a roadside bomb that targeted a patrol Kirkuk emergency forces in al Qadisiyah neighborhood in downtown Kirkuk city.

Ten people were injured including five guards work for Abdul Ameer Mahdi; the judge of Tuz Khurmatu court when a suicide car bomb targeted the convoy of Judge Mahdi on the road between Kirkuk and Tuz Khurmatu around 11:45 a.m.

Diyala

Three farmers (two brothers and their nephew were killed by a bomb that was planted inside the water pump of their farm in al Othmaniyah village south of Baquba on Monday evening.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Integration of Sunni Awakening Councils a Challenge; Some Mahdi Army Fighters Reject Ceasefire; Khanaqin Crisis with Kurds Unresolved

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that hundreds of members of the Mahdi Army of Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr are rejecting his call for a long-term ceasefire with US troops and their transformation into a service organization. The militants say they cannot conceive of their mission in life as anything other than violently opposing the presence of US troops in their country.

The US military is turning security in al-Anbar Province over to a largely Shiite government and army that "hates" the Sunni Awakening Councils that now provide much of the bulwark against radical Salafi fundamentalist guerrillas. Nevertheless, the Iraqi government is slated to take over payments to 55,000 of the Awakening Council fighters in October. Some doubt that this process will go smoothly.

One little-noted aspect of the struggle between the central government and the Awakening Councils is, as Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic, the conflict between the Iraqi Islamic Party (the Iraqi branch of the Muslim Brotherhood). Awakening leader Sheikh Mu'ayyad al-Hamishi complained Sunday that the Iraqi Islamic Party had attempted to piggy back on the Awakening movement by forming its own Awakening Councils, some of whom he implied were indisciplined and damaged the reputation of the movement as a whole. The Iraqi Islamic Party and its fundamentalist allies have 44 seats in Parliament and control several Sunni-majority provinces, and the IIP fears that the Awakening Councils as a political force will displace it in the upcoming provincial elections.

Al-Anbar Province will be a major test. US troop levels there have already declined from 37,000 in February to 28,000 today.

AFP profiles two members of a radical fundamentalist cell in Dhuluiyyah who have accepted an amnesty and laid down their arms, in part out of disgust at the foreign vigilantes' attacks on young Iraqi men they saw as collaborators.

The Iraqi government is mounting a campaign against what it calls 'squatters,' families who have moved into homes vacated because of ethnic cleansing. The campaign is part of PM Nuri al-Maliki's press for the return of Iraqi refugees from abroad. The some 200,000 refugees in Jordan are resisting al-Maliki's pressure on them to return. The United Nations High Commission on Refugees in Amman told me a couple of weeks ago that they do not consider it safe for Iraqis to go back. One big problem is that so many mixed neighborhoods have been ethnically cleansed of Sunnis that the latter do not actually have anywhere to return too-- their old neighborhood has been abolished in favor, of, e.g. a new Sadrist reality. That is why chasing the 'squatters' out won't do much good (and the squatters themselves are often victims of ethnic cleansing elsewhere. I doubt there are many Shiites left in al-Anbar province, e.g.). Al-Zaman says that a Sunni fundamentalist guerrilla attack on Sunday on Wathba near Baladruz in Diyala forced 48 families out, so that the ethnic cleansing is continuing. Al-Sharq al-Awsat says that 'al-Qaeda in Iraq' attacked the family of a local leader of the Awakening Council, killing 4, including two children, and frightening the other families into departing for provincial capital of Baquba. Many of these families had only recently returned to Wathba, in hopes security had improved.

Iraqi troops in Khanaqin ordered Kurdish political parties to vacate their offices, which apparently are in government-owned buildings. Khanaqin in northern Diyala Province was a stonghold of Faili Kurds, Shiites, who had been forced by Saddam over the border into Iran but who have returned in the tens of thousands since his fall. Many Kurds in Khanaqin want to join the Kurdistan Regional Government [KRG]. Ever since the Iraqi army went into Khanaqin and other Kurdish areas of Diyala Province, there has been tension between it and the Kurdish fighters or Peshmerga that had provided security to Kurdish areas. Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that parliamentarian Humam Hamudi of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (the main party backing al-Maliki) said al-Maliki had threatened any Peshmerga forces discovered in Iraq proper outside the KRG with prosecution. Hamudi implicitly threatened the Kurdistan government, saying that it is given 17% of Iraqi government revenue (from which the Peshmerga are paid) but that it should only be 13%.

Iraq's Chief of Staff, Gen. Babakr Zibari, insisted at a news conference on Sunday that Khanaqin is an indivisible part of Iraq and that the Iraqi military has the right to conduct operations in the city at will. Zibari is himself a Kurd.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

OSC: Qabbanji and Saghir: Kirkuk Crisis Endangers Shiite-Kurdish Alliance

The USG Open Source Center translates Iraqi sermons from Friday

Roundup of Iraqi Friday Sermons 29 Aug
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Document Type: OSC Summary

... On the "crisis of Kirkuk and Khanaqin," [Sheikh Sadr al-Din] Al-Qabbanji says: "There is a crisis in Iraq now called the Kirkuk crisis. There are Arabs, Kurds, and Turkomans who say that Kirkuk belongs to us. We also have the Khanaqin crisis. The armed forces affiliated with the central government entered Khanaqin and the brothers in the Kurdish Peshmerga said that this entry is unwarranted and consequently we have our position on this entry. This is a crisis in the country. It is the Kirkuk and the Khanaqin crisis. In this regard, we stress that the Shiite-Sunni-Kurdish alliance is the side that protected Iraq. This alliance should not be relinquished under any circumstances. This is a red line for us. We will not relinquish or violate the strategic and holy alliance between us and the Sunnis. You have seen how we dealt with the sectarian sedition until it was buried. The alliance between the Shiites and Kurds is also a strategic one and we will not relinquish it. We will not relinquish this alliance because of some minor issues. For us, this is a great principle; namely, the Shiite-Sunni-Kurdish alliance. This is a firm position which we will not relinquish. In this regard, we should resort to reason, logic, and the spirit of amity. It is true that these are rights, but it is also true that rights without amity are bitter."

Al-Qabbanji adds: "It is not in the interest of anyone to foment sedition regarding the Kirkuk issue.The only group that has interest in this are the Ba'thists. These Ba'thists area group of wolves. We expelled them from the village and they are now thinking of attacking the village once again. They cannot attack and cause internal problems among the people of the village."

He says: "Based on this, we call on the Kurdish brothers just as we call on the Arab and Turkoman brothers in Kirkuk to be aware of the challenges. We have great challenges ahead of us. We have an enemy that wants to kill all of us. We do not want anyone to relinquish his rights. However, it is wrong not to think of priorities. What are these priorities? The priority is the safety of Iraq."

On the election issue,Sayyid Hasan al-Zamili says: "The mother of all problems in this regard is the Kirkuk issue. We believe that delaying the elections until 1 December,taking into consideration that some sides are trying to delay the elections until 1 December, will create a real problem in the country. This will create a legal and political vacuum."

He adds: "We call on the Council of Representatives to have as its first priority to vote on the Election Law. We strongly and firmly demand that the elections should take place on the set date. Delaying the elections harms the country and the political situation and causes us various vacuums and problems. The one who benefits from these problems is only the one who is lying in wait for us, the bankrupt, and the one who opposes the political process."

He calls for avoiding "party, parochial, ethnic, and sectarian interests," saying that"all entities and groups should adopt a real national position." . . .


Buratha News Agency in Arabic -- Shiite news agency with strong anti-Sunni sentiment and focus on news of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, is observed to carry the following report on a Friday sermon by Shaykh Jalal-al-Din al-Saghir, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque:

In his Friday sermon,Al-Saghir says: "There is a defect that has nothing to do with this or that minister. In fact, there is a problem in the administrative and economic system in this country. If this defect is not solved, problems will not be solved.If we solve a problem here today, we will have another problem there tomorrow.This defect is the centralism of the state and its control on everything."

Al-Saghir then highlights the "private sector's" role in solving the problem of electricity and other problems in Iraq. He urges the government to "give a free rein"to the private sector to solve these problems. He says that the private sector can solve the problem of electricity "in one year."

On the elections and the Kirkuk issue, Al-Saghir says: "From the beginning I said that some sides want to use the Kirkuk issue as a bridge to cross to an agenda that is much bigger than the Kirkuk issue. One option is an ethnic war in Kirkuk. What does an ethnic war mean? It means that the situation will no longer be controlled by the Iraqis, but by all the neighboring states. This is because the neighboring states do not consider the Kirkuk issue as an issue that is particularly based on voting, but it is an issue that has to do with the ethnic issue that is connected with at least three major states; namely, Syria, Turkey, and Iran.This is in addition to the other states that are present in Iraq. If the situation proceeds toward an ethnic war, they will win. The side that has been tampering with the political process all this time will win. After they failed to ignite a sectarian war, incite the Shiites against the Sunnis and the Sunnis against the Shiites, and create a Shiite infighting and a Sunni infighting,they have come to try the other card; namely, to foment sedition between the Arabs and Kurds, between the Turkomans and Kurds, and then between the Turkomans and Arabs. So, the main goal is to create sedition and predicaments."

He says that the Kirkuk problem can only be solved by "political accords." He adds:"Now, I warn against what I have read and heard to the effect that Shaykh Jalal or the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) have sold Kirkuk to the Kurds. I say that this is shameful. Kirkuk does not belong to the Kurds, to the Arabs, or to the Turkomans. It does not belong to any other side. Kirkuk belongs to Iraq and to all Iraqis. It cannot be sold through voting or talks here and there. It cannot be dealt with this way. Where did this fabrication come from?"

Al-Saghir adds: "The Ba'thists and the orphans of the Ba'thists have never been truthful to any Iraqi. So, how can they be truthful regarding this issue? Kirkuk and other areas would not have been lost had it not been to the crimes of these people.Kirkuk was a city of brotherhood."

He says: "I stress that we will solve the Kirkuk problem only based on the Constitution. Any side that claims it has a right should obtain this right through constitutional mechanisms. The one who believes that he can be present through gangs,terrorism, and illegal acts should look at Baghdad. Terrorism, which used towreak havoc in Baghdad every day, has been eliminated, and it will eventually be eliminated in all areas. I say that the wise men should hold the reins of the initiative and they should not allow those who have been playing this game all this time to continue with their bad game. These sides tried to depict things as if the so-and-so Ba'thist leader was the hero of the liberation of Kirkuk. This is a disgrace. The Ba'thists have displaced and killed people. If they think that their hopes are pinned on these criminals, then this will be a great victory for the Ba'thists."

He says: "Some sides are trying to create a problem for Iraq with Kuwait or a problem for Kuwait with Iraq. There are various trends in Kuwait and in Iraq which want to strain relations between the two states." He adds that "we do not expect the Wahhabi trend at the Kuwaiti Parliament to say a good word to improve relations between the Iraqi and Kuwaiti peoples." He says that "we know that some sides have interest in disrupting the new diplomatic atmospheres that began to open on Iraq," adding that the "I call for a wise policy and say that the politicians should not allow the media to create atmospheres to strain relations between us and Kuwait." He says:"Yes, we have problems. We have problems with Syria and Jordan and we have problems with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran. However, these problems can be solved through normal political and diplomatic means. We have relations that are more important than these problems."

Al-Saghir says: "I do not forget here to remind the state of the tragedy of Iraqis in the Saudi prisons. There are more than 600 Iraqi detainees in Saudi Arabia, some of whom are tortured and some others are killed away from the eyes of the Iraqi Government. For this or that reason a person crosses the border with Saudi Arabia and this happens between the neighboring states. However, we view this issue with concern because these 600 detainees or more than 600 are all affiliated with one sect. So, this is a different story that has other faces. Therefore, I call on the Interior Ministry and the Foreign Ministry an tell them just as Saudi Arabia asks you about the (Saudi) detainees in Iraq, you should form a committee to go there to check on the Iraqis who are detained there. Frankly speaking, I spoke with some of these detainees from inside the prisons through a mediator. He gave me startling facts about what takes place inside these prisons in Rafhah, Hafar al-Batin, and in several cities where these detaineesare."

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Does Al-Maliki's New Team Imperil Security Agreement? Al-Maliki asks Peshmerga to stay beyond Blue Line

The LAT reports doubts in Baghdad about whether the security agreement between the Bush administration and the Iraqi government will be achieved. Al-Maliki abruptly dismissed his negotiating team and replaced it with three officials close to himself. MP Mithal al-Alusi is convinced that the change was intended to derail the talks.

Diyala Province is still dangerous.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has called on the Peshmerga paramilitary to honor the "blue line" that divides the Kurdistan Regional Government from Iraq proper. Peshmerga troops are in north-eastern Iraq cities such as Khanaqin, producing tension with the Iraqi army, which is going into those same cities as part of al-Maliki's security campaign.

Anwar J. Ali writes about her trip to Baghdad at the NYT blog:

'The streets in Baghdad after 9 p.m. are very dangerous and full of army, police and American checkpoints. Sometimes they can’t understand why you are out late and shoot, and sometimes they understand. . . The streets were empty, shops were closed. There was only us, the army and the blast walls. As we were driving in this dead city and empty neighborhood we saw a man who was only wearing shorts sitting half-naked in the middle of the road, at midnight. . . '

Aljazeera English reports on the Sunni Arab Awakening Councils in Iraq and Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's current crackdown on them. It raises the question of whether a battle looms between the Iraqi government and these American-backed militias. Mithal al-Alusi and Nir Rosen are interviewed.


For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sadrists Sign Oath to fight US Troops

Shiites from the Sadr Movement in Iraq have been signing oaths in blood to struggle against the foreign military occupation of their country. This ritual affirmation comes despite the command from Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr to lay down their arms. Sadr has also spoken of creating a special forces unit to kill US and other coalition troops, despite the cease-fire he affirmed between his Mahdi Army and the US and Iraqi forces. Al-Sadr had called for these pledges signed in blood, but appeared to see them as binding the signers to a non-violent struggle. This AFP article suggests most of the signers do not see it that way.

A Sunni Arab member of parliament said Friday that he does not expect Iraq and the US to sign a security agreement. He thinks too many insuperable obstacles stand in the way,including that of immunity for US troops in Iraqi courts.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Kurdistan officials are complaining that the government of PM Nuri al-Maliki is marginalizing them.

The 11,000 Palestinian refugees in Iraq, expelled from their homeland by the Israelis, now live in fear and some are dwelling in squalor in border camps. It is hell to be stateless-- and has disenfranchising consequences in the 21st century analogous to slavery in the eighteenth.

Speaking of slavery, Nepalese workers are suing Kellogg, Brown and Root for human trafficking, claiming that a subcontractor pressed them into involuntary labor in Iraq.

Sunni Arab Awakening Council members in Diyala Province are Complaining to the US military that the Iraqi Army is harassing them.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the sermonizers at Friday prayers in Iraq on Saturday were pretty unanimous across age lines that the US must set a timetable for withdrawing US troops from Iraq..

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

China Signs $3 Bn Deal with Iraq; Iraq Army Takes over Camp Ashraf; Chalabi Crony Arrested for Terrorism

The US military on Friday arrested Ali Faisal al-Lami, a Sadrist who served on the Debaathification Committee under Ahmad Chalabi. The Pentagon maintains that Al-Lami is deeply involved with Iran-backed "special group" cells and implicated in a bombing in Sadr City that killed several people including two GIs. Chalabi, a notorious liar and embezzler to whom Rumsfeld and the Neocons had intended to turn over Iraq, protested al-Lami's arrest and called for an end of the US ability to arrest Iraqis at will.

Chalabi's closeness to al-Lami raises the question of his own relationship to Iran and/or the special groups.

Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that PM Nuri al-Maliki has changed the team that is negotiating the security agreement with the United States. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has been dropped and the new team will be led by national security adviser Muwaffaq al-Rubaie.

The head of the voting commission says that it is now impossible to hold provincial elections on their original schedule. The enabling legislation has not been passed by parliament. February 2009 is the earliest the elections can now be held.

The Iraqi military has taken control of Camp Ashraf, the base of the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) terrorist group,in accordance with a longstanding demand of Iraqi Shiite parties that are close to Iran. Saddam Hussein had given the MEK this base in order to harass Iran. It has been alleged that the Pentagon was deploying the MEK against Iran, as well, even though the US State Department has put the group on the terrorist watch list.

China has signed a $3 billion petroleum contract with Iraq for the development of Iraqi fields. A reader at reddit.com entitled this item "4,000 US troops die for China's access to Iraqi oil."

"U.S. Deputy Ambassador Alejandro Wolff told the [U.N.} meeting it was a violation of the U.N. charter for member states to use force against others, or threaten to use it, . . Russia's U.N. envoy, Vitaly Churkin, suggested Wolff's statement was hypocritical and referred to the U.S.-led March 2003 invasion of Iraq, which Moscow strongly opposed. "I would like to ask the distinguished representative of the United States -- weapons of mass destruction. Have you found them yet in Iraq or are you still looking for them?" Wolff accused Churkin of making false comparisons. "I'm not a psychologist and I don't know what brought on the free association we heard from Ambassador Churkin," he said. . . ."

No comment.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday (please pay attention, Sen. McCain):

' Baghdad

- Early morning, gunmen assassinated the brigadier general Najam Abdullah from the 7th division of the Iraqi army and his wife in front of his house in Adel neighborhood (west Baghdad).

- Mortars hit the international zone (IZ) in central Baghdad. No casualties reported.

- Two roadside bombs targeted an American patrol near Al-Khansa police station in Mashtal(east Baghdad). No casualties reported.

- Around 11 am, a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Baladiyat neighborhood (east Baghdad). Five people were injured (three policemen and two civilians).

- A mortar shell hit Baladiyat neighborhood (east Baghdad. Two people were injured.

- Around 2 pm, a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol near Al-Rubayee bridge in Karrada neighborhood (downtown Baghdad). Two policemen were injured.

- Police found two dead bodies in Baghdad today: 1 was found in Shaab neighborhood(north Baghdad) and 1 was found in Jihad neighborhood(west Baghdad).

Diyala

- Around 7:30 am, a roadside bomb detonated at Abu Shanuna in balad Ruz (east Baquba). One shepherd was killed.

Kirkuk

- Around 11 am, a roadside bomb detonated near Rashid Awa restaurant in downtown Kirkuk. One person was killed and 7 others were injured. Also some buildings and cars were damaged in the incident.

- Gunmen kidnapped 4 persons in bani Izz village in Qara Taba (north east Baghdad).'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

McCain: Iraq is a Peaceful, Stable Country

McCain: "Iraq is a peaceful, stable country now":



I'm hurt. I thought everyone who is anyone in Washington read IC. McCain seems to have missed these recent headlines here:

Wednesday, August 27, 2008: "45 Dead, 79 Wounded in Wave of Violence; Bombing in Jalawla' Raises Tensions with Baghdad"

Monday, August 25, 2008: "54 Killed in Bombings, attacks;
Water Crisis;Fixing the Intelligence Around the Policy"

Tuesday, August 19, 2008: "Kirkuk a Powderkeg: NYT;
Ramadi Bombing Targets Police"

"Monday, August 18, 2008: "Bombing Kills 15, Including AC Leader in Baghdad; Al-Sadr Calls for Blood Pledge of Holy Struggle Against Occupation"

Friday, August 15, 2008: "Bombing Kills 26 Pilgrims;
Iraq Seeks Regional Security Network with Iran, Turkey"

Monday, August 11, 2008: "Wave of Attacks Kills over a Dozen;US Soldier Killed, 2 Wounded at Tarmiyah; Zebari insists on Withdrawal Timeline"

Saturday, August 09, 2008: "2000 Georgian Troops Leaving;
Huge Blast at Tal Afar Kills 21; Arab-Kurdish Tensions in Kirkuk; Mahdi Army to Disarm if US Leaves"

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

45 Dead, 79 Wounded in Wave of Violence; Bombing in Jalawla' Raises Tensions with Baghdad

Why Iraq still matters to the presidential campaign,according to Mark Brunswick of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Violence erupted throughout central, eastern and northern Iraq on Tuesday, leaving at least 45 dead and some 79 wounded. The major single attack was a suicide bombing that struck at a police recruiting center in the mostly Kurdish town of Jalaula' northeast of Baquba in troubled Diyala Province.

The attack raised suspicions among Kurds because it comes in the wake of disputes between the Kurds of Diyala and the government of Nuri al-Maliki, who has sent Iraqi government troops into Diyala. When the troops entered Khanaqin, a potentially oil-rich city near the Iranian border that is largely Kurdish, there were tensions with the local population and with the Peshmerga Kurdish paramilitary. On Tuesday, residents of Khanaqin staged a demonstration against the presence in their city of government troops.

Jalawla' is near Khanaqin. Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that when Iraqi troops first went into the northern, Kurdish areas of Diyala, they gave the local Peshmerga 24 hours to get out of the region. The Diyala governing council resisted this ultimatum, creating tension with the central government. The Kurdistan Regional Government also disputed the decree, eliciting charges from Baghdad that the KRG was attempting to extend its authority into provinces not in its purview (Diyala is not part of the KRG). Al-Hayat says that the Peshmerga had just returned to Khanaqin and Jalawla' after the withdrawal of federal troops.

Shawn Brimley and Colin Kahl argue against al-Maliki's crackdown on the Sunni Arab Awakening Councils.

Kurdish journalists are in danger in Iraqi Kurdistan. Al-Hayat reports a new poll that shows that half of KRG residents feel that they have little freedom of speech.

Antiwar.com reviews political violence in Iraq on Tuesday.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Al-Maliki Insists US Troops be Out by 2011; Iraqi Christian Refugees at Risk

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of Iraq insisted again Monday that all foreign troops must be out of Iraq by 2011 and that US troops in Iraq must come under the authority of Iraqi courts. These demands appear to have emanated in the first instance from Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Najaf and from Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, now studying in Iran. They may also reflect a secret deal al-Maliki may have struck with Iran on his visit to Tehran last spring. Iran has been restraining the Mahdi Army, allowing al-Maliki to assert control in places such as Maysan Province (said to be oil-rich). You have to wonder what the quid pro quo is.

Al-Maliki implied that the US had agreed to these two demands, but a White House spokesman denied it.

My guess is that in the end Bush blinks on these two demands, or, as one wag on Reddit.com put it, "surrenders."

A young female suicide bomber was caught by police in Baquba before she could detonate her payload. She said she was fitted for the bomb by her husband's female relatives, though her own mother appears to have played a leading role, as well.

Anti-war.com says, "At least 16 Iraqis were killed and 14 more were wounded in the latest round of violence. One U.S. soldier was killed in a small arms attack in Baghdad." See below.

Saving Iraqi Christian refugees. PM al-Maliki wants them to return to Iraq, but most refugee NGOs and UNHCR insist that it is not safe enough for them to do that. I was just in Amman, Jordan, looking into the refugee issue. Some 10% of the Iraqis there are Christians. There is no rush to return because they just don't trust that the militias are gone or the ethnic cleansing at an end.

Likewise, al-Hayat reports in Arabic that a major reason for Iraqis to flee their country is lack of basic services such as potable water, electricity, fuel and reliable health care. The paper quotes Muhammad Laith, who took his family of five to Amman from the tony Hayy Zayounah in Baghdad. Laith, who works in the advertising and publicity sector, said, "Life in Iraq is still hard, despite the slight improvement in security. There is a big deficiency in services in all areas and even in the nice neighborhoods. This deficiency is the fault of the government and concerned circles, which cannot fulfill their duties because of endemic fraud."

MP Ghufran al-Sa'edi said that there was no difference between failure of government to deliver basic services and militias' ethnic cleansing campaigns, in their effect on emigration of refugees.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

'BAGHDAD - A U.S. soldier died after being shot during a patrol in northern Baghdad, the U.S. military said in a statement. . .

TIKRIT - A roadside bomb exploded near a convoy carrying Major-General Hamad Namis Yasin, the police chief of Salahuddin province, wounding six of his guards in central Tikrit, 150 km (95 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

SHIRQAT - A roadside bomb killed two bystanders in the town of Shirqat, 300 km (190 miles) north of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said.

MUSSAYAB - A roadside bomb was planted near the house of Basim Mohammed, a Lieutenant-Colonel of the government facilities guard force, killing his daughter and wounding two sons on Sunday in Mussayab, 60 km (40 miles) south of Baghdad, police said . . .

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a man working as a guard for the dean of Mosul University in a drive-by shooting in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.'

McClatchy gives more detail on events in Baghdad:

' Baghdad

- Mortars hit the International Zone(IZ) in downtown Baghdad. No casualties reported.

- Around 7 am an IED detonated near an Iraqi army check point near Mr.Milk supermarket in Mansour neighborhood (west Baghdad). One officer was injured.

- Around 8 am a bomb planted in a car detonated in Jamia’a neighborhood. Three family members were injured in that incident.

- Around 11 am a bomb left inside a mini bus detonated in Adhemiyah neighborhood(north Baghdad). Only the driver was injured in that incident.

- A roadside bomb detonated in Adel neighborhood(west Baghdad). One person was injured.

- Mortars hit Ghazaliyah neighborhood. A petrol station got fire by one of the mortar shells.

- Gunmen opened fire on an army patrol. 2 soldiers were killed and another one was wounded.

- Police found 2 dead bodies in Baghdad. 1was in Sleikh(north Baghdad) and 1 was found in Mansour(west Baghdad)'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

54 Killed in Bombings, attacks; Water Crisis; Fixing the Intelligence Around the Policy

A suicide bomber attacked a celebration in Abu Ghraib late Sunday, killing at least 30 and wounding 42. The gathering was in honor of a former prisoner in a US prison who had just been released and was attended by police and by members of the local Awakening Council that has fought radical Muslim vigilantes on behalf of the US.

A rash of attacks in Baghdad, Diyala and Mosul, left at least 54 people killed and 70 injured on Sunday.



Meanwhile, Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that the six million Baghdad residents are facing a severe shortage of clean water during the hellishly hot summer. Sadiq al-Shammari, the general director of Water Utility in the capital, said that residents of the capital only have access to half the clean water they need at a time when the temperature can reach 122 degrees Fahrenheit (50 C). Al-Shammari also said that every time the electricity goes out, it knocks out water production for 3 hours. He said 2.8 million cubic meters (roughly, yards) of water is produced for Baghdad, but that the demand is 4 million.

AFP has more on the water crisis.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of millions of Shiites in Iraq and around the world, dispelled rumors he is in poor health by holding a small press conference. See also the LAT blog. One of Sistani's followers, resident in Qom but visiting the southern port city of Basra was assassinated on Sunday.

More evidence that the Bush administration decided to go to war against Iraq and then fixed the intelligence around the policy. The National Security Archive electronic briefing book edited by John Prados shows that a white paper arguing for war was produced before the relevant National Intelligence Estimate. (That NIE was anyway deeply flawed, produced in a hellish rush, and then apparently doctored by the White House in the aftermath).

Michael Collins observes:

'The seemingly endless war in Iraq has become a total disaster on multiple levels for all involved. The awful toll in human deaths and casualties is largely ignored but real nevertheless. Over 4,000 U.S. soldiers have been lost in battle and tens of thousands injured. In excess of one million Iraqi civilians are dead due to civil strife unleashed by the invasion. The U.S. Treasury is drained and the steep decline in respect for the United States around the world is just beginning to manifest.The United States political establishment responds with collective denial on a scale that's incomprehensible. In the presidential campaign, the only sustained public commentary on the war comes from the Republican presidential candidate John McCain who makes the bizarre claim that U.S. is "surrendering" with victory in clear sight. McCain touts the surge without noting that 4.0 million Iraqis are "displaced from their homes." Nearly ten percent of Iraq's population is either dead or injured and there are 5.0 million Iraqi orphans. This pathological view of victory claims the "surge' is a success in the context of a devastated population in an obliterated nation lacking in the most essential supplies and services; a nation where death continues on a shopping spree. '

A class by Chalmers Johnson reprinted at Tomdispatch.com reminds us of another sort of destruction of Iraq.

Andrew Mack argues that "Security role of US surge 'modest' "

McClatchy reports other political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

' Baghdad

Four people including a policeman were killed and 15 others including two policemen were injured by successive bombing of two IEDs near Nahdha bus station in east Baghdad around 9:00 a.m.

Three civilians were killed and five others were wounded by a roadside bomb that targeted a civilian car in al Dyna area northeast Baghdad around 12:00 p.m.

Two civilians were injured by a roadside bomb in Doura neighborhood around 1:30 p.m.

Around 7:00 p.m. an IED exploded near Shaab Stadium in east Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

Police found one unidentified body in Palestine Street in east Baghdad. . .

Diyala

A civilian and a policeman were killed and four other people were wounded when gunmen opened fire inside a bus station in downtown Baquba city northeast of Baghdad around 11:15 a.m.

Three civilians were killed and five others were wounded by a roadside bomb in Dayniyah village east of Baquba city around 2:00 p.m.

Four Iraqi soldiers were killed and eight others were injured by an IED that targeted a patrol of the Iraqi army in Dayniyah village east of Baquba city around 2:30 p.m.

Nineveh

Three policemen and a civilian were injured when a suicide car bomb targeted a US army convoy in al Maliyah intersection in east Mosul on Sunday morning.

Two insurgents were killed while they were trying to plant an IED in al Zohoor neighborhood in downtown Mosul city on Sunday morning. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

OSC: Collective Punishment in Baghdad

The USG Open Source Center translates an article from the Arabic online press complaining about Iraqi government collective punishment of Baghdad city quarters that witness poor security.

US, Iraqi Forces Accused of Dividing Baghdad Neighborhoods on 'Sectarian' Basis
Report by Kalshan al-Bayyati "Residents of Baghdad: 'The Government Imposes Collective Punishment on us"
Al-Arab Online
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Baghdad Residents Gathering has condemned the collective punishment that has been imposed by the Iraqi forces on a number of neighborhoods in Baghdad that witness security turmoil. The punishments include limiting the movements of the citizens, imposing curfews for long hours, in addition to building walls and fences around neighborhoods and isolating them from each other.

The gathering stated in a statement it released that "in a new development of the methods of the wanton occupation and its agent government, the forces called the (Iraqi) army and the police backed by the occupying troops impose collective punishments on the residents of the Baghdadi neighborhoods and on the rest of the Iraqi areas. These punishments include isolating those neighborhoods, limiting the movement of citizens after those neighborhoods turned into detention centers. This happened through constructing sectarian segregation walls that caused a lot of hardship especially, for children, elderly people, and women who stand in queues under the stifling sun heat, noting the presence of many sick people among them.
The application of this method comes after the targeting of their beasts (troops) by the national resistance and that is exactly what happened recently in Al-Amiriyah and Al-Saydiyah neighborhoods in Baghdad, in a way that is similar to what happened before in Al-Fallujah and Samaraa."

The statement says also that "as we in Baghdad Residents Gathering condemn the application of these inhuman methods by the occupying forces and their agents, we call on all international and popular organizations in the Arab world to raise their voices to demand a stop to those practices which are considered as a continuation of the massive killing operations that commenced against the Iraqi people by the occupation and as an outcome of it.

The Gathering urges the residents of Baghdad and the rest of the governorates to show more patience and resistance, pointing out that these punishments are conducted against them as a response to their embrace of the national resistance and the support they extend to it.

The US Army announced last Saturday that "it chose in coordination with the Iraqi military commands a number of areas that are experiencing an escalation of violence in order to protect them from terrorists and not to divide the city (Baghdad) on a sectarian basis" adding that "a number of areas will be subjected to the same method."

(Description of Source: Doha Al-Arab Online in Arabic -- Website of independent newspaper, focuses on pan-Arab affairs; http://www.alarab.com.qa/)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Najaf Demonstrations against Rice: "Rogue" Operation in Baquba; Sadr in Iran for 5 Years

Secretary of State Condi Rice's visit to Baghdad for consultations on the US-Iraqi security agreement provoked a demonstration in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, with Sadrist crowds carrying placards warning against US intentions. The Sadrists said that they rejected any security agreement that lacked a specific timetable for US troop withdrawal, and would take up arms against any such treaty. Former Iraqi PM Ibrahim Jaafari, leader of the Reform Movement, supported the criticism and said that the situation in Iraq was getting worse. The demonstration has been reported on the Iraq page in the Arab newspapers I looked at, but the demonstration appears to have been completely ignored by all English-language news services.



Ignoring the demonstration is an error. Najaf, the seat of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, is driving a lot of the negotiating positions of the al-Maliki government, including the demand for a withdrawal timetable. Some call Najaf Iraq's shadow capital.

The raid on Diyala provincial government offices earlier this week by an Iraqi special forces unit is now being called a rogue operation by the al-Maliki government, according to McClatchy. A provincial council member and the president of the university were arrested, and the personal secretary of the governor was killed in the operation. The former two are Sunni Arabs, and the provincial council member was coordinating between the Diyala government and the US-backed Sunni Awakening Councils. The special forces unit was an emergency response unit that reports directly to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, but his office is saying he did not authorize the raid on Baquba. Sunni politicians say it is not credible that the unit should have acted without al-Maliki's knowledge or command.

Speculation: The unit is from the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, trained in Iran. ISCI controls Diyala politically even though the Shiites are a minority there. They are threatened by the Awakening Councils, full of Sunni guerrillas whom they had earlier been fighting (and maybe still are fighting). So the ERU hits them, trying to cripple them through key arrests. The governor of Diyala is Badr, however, and when his secretary was killed, the operation went bad, and so al-Maliki had to disavow it.

McClatchy quotes a source acknowledging that al-Maliki is not asserting central government control in Basra, Amara, Sadr City, Mosul and Diyala out of altruism, but is rather attempting to ensure that these areas vote for him or his allies when the provincial elections are held.

LAT explores the al-Maliki government's building campaign against the Awakening Councils.

Saad al-Hashemi has been convicted in absentia of ordering the hit, while a government minister on two sons of MP Mithal al-Alusi. Hashemi is a member of the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni fundamentalist). Alusi angered Iraqi political parties by visiting Israel. Al-Hashemi is in hiding abroad. Critics of the trial say he should not have been tried and convicted in absentia.

Aides to Muqtada al-Sadr say he will pursue his theological and legal studies in Qom for the next five years, visiting Iraq occasionally. Vali Nasr suggests that he is a virtual hostage of Iran, which is gradually assuming control of al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. It is likely that al-Sadr's truce with the US military, begun last September, was forced on him by Iran, which viewed the militia as a provocation of the US and a pretext for American troops to stay in Iraq.

No progress on the Iraq oil bill.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Raid on Governor's office in Diyala; Seniora to Baghdad; Dulaimi's Son Arrested

Strange things happen in Iraq. On Tuesday, an unidentified Iraqi government security force, or at least people wearing such uniforms, attacked the Diyala provincial governor's headquarters, killed his secretary, and arrested a member of the Diyala Provincial Assembly. The local police fought back, and four were wounded. The attacking unit is said to be a special forces group that typically works closely with the US Army. One suspects that al-Maliki decided that some guerrilla activities are being run out of the governor's office.

The US denies knowing anything about it all. And al-Maliki has ordered an investigation (doesn't he know what his own troops are up to?)

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora is visiting Baghdad. Seniora will seek Iraqi petroleum for Lebanon at discounted prices. Behind the scenes, look for him to seek help from PM Nuri al-Maliki in dealing with the Shiite Hizbullah in Lebanon. Al-Maliki's Da'wa Party was important in forming Hizbullah and still has political contacts with it.

Another of Sunni Arab politician Adnan Dulaimi's sons has been arrested by US troops. Dulaimi's brand of Sunn