Pakistan is an important country and a key US partner, and so it is bad news that it is lurching from political crisis to political crisis. There is a crisis between the military and the civilian government. There is a crisis between the military and the US government. There is a crisis between the Supreme Court and the other two branches of government. There was a big Taliban bombing in Pakistan the day before yesterday. And, the Zardari government may fall at any time, either to clear a path to new elections or because of yet another military coup.
Pakistan is the world’s sixth most populous country, just after Brazil. It has only the 46th largest gross domestic product (in nominal terms). But it has a stockpile of nuclear warheads, and has perhaps the seventh largest army in the world, after the US, Russia, China, India and the two Koreas. It is a major recipient of US foreign aid, though some of that has been put on hold by an angry US Congress.
Pakistan’s elites are allied with the United States against some insurgent Afghan groups, and it is central to transporting goods for the NATO war effort in Afghanistan. On the other hand, it is allied with some Pashtun groups (especially the Haqqani network) against the US and against the Afghanistan government.
It has been facing serial crises of poor governance and bad politics. There are continual electricity outages (very bad for the industrial sector). There have been strikes over poor or late pay, including by the railway workers. Security is collapsing, even in Lahore, which used to be well run, but which is becoming seedy and dangerous.
The Pakistani government was embarrassed by the presence of Usamah Bin Laden in Abbotabad, not far from its equivalent of West Point. The revelation appears to have provoked a determination on the part of the civilian government of Yousuf Raza Gilani and President Asaf Ali Zardari to get more control of the Inter-Services Intelligence and the officer corps, who had in the past often ordered the civilian government around or made coups.
Then it was alleged that the Pakistani ambassador in Washington, Hussein Haqqani, passed over to the US National Security Council and the Pentagon a request for them to help the civilian government get power over the military bureaucracy. An intermediary was said to be Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz, whom the Pakistani Supreme Court and other authorities now want to depose.
Ambassador Haqqani had to resign when the existence of the memo became public.
This “memogate” deeply angered Pakistan’s powerful military, provoking rumors of a possible coup by chief of army staff Ashfaq Kayani.
The Pakistani Supreme Court is also interested in the memos, to see if the Pakistani government had violated any laws or perhaps even committed treason.
President Asaf Ali Zardari keeps going off to Dubai for medical treatment, causing many to wonder if he was trying to slip out of the country (he went back to the the Emirates again on Thursday.)
Then US aircraft killed some 24 Pakistani troops at a checkpoint near the Afghan border, creating severe tensions between the Pakistani military, which was already angry about the Bin Laden assassination mission on Pakistani soil and about Memogate and the possibility of US intervention in Pakistan’s civilian-military balance.
Then Pakistan threw the US air force off one of its bases. For several weeks, there were no drone strikes in the tribal belt by the US, probably because Pakistan was still sore about the killing of 24 troops by friendly fire. And for a long time Pakistan idled the NATO supply trucks coming up from Karachi to the Khyber Pass.
Then President Zardari flew to Dubai for medical treatment, which some speculated would lead to a soft coup by the military.
But it did not. Zardari returned. But now the Supreme Court is getting interested in him and in investigating Memogate itself.
Then a famous cricketer turned politician and philantropist, Imran Khan, started holding mega rallies in Lahore and Karachi, having gained sudden popularity. Imran Khan started to call for Zardari to resign. The government anyway could not go past February 2013, and Zardari’s political rivals want early elections.
On Monday Prime Minister Gilani gave an interview with the Chinese press in which he criticized the Chief of Staff and the head of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for submitting documents on Memogate indepedently to the Supreme Court, insisting they should have gone through him as head of state.
Then the military made dark noises, and Gilani responded by firing the minister of defense, who was close to the officer corps.
On Thursday, Zardari went to Dubai again, possibly for follow-up tests for whatever condition he has. That trip provoked more coup rumors.
So, Pakistan’s civilian and military wings of government are furious with each other and with the US military. There are suspicions that the US deliberately hit the soldiers at the checkpoint. There are suspicions that the US is trying behind the scenes to weaken the political power of the military in favor of the civilian government.
But Pakistanis are convinced by the lack of electricity that Zardari and Gilani could not govern themselves out of a paper bag, and that new elections for parliament should be held. Imran Khan is waiting in the wings as a new broom. Assuming that there are elections rather than a coup.
And, what will be the effect of these changes on the final years of the US and NATO war in Afghanistan? How badly did the interruption of the supply train hurt? What sorts of lack of Pakistani cooperation have been imposed with regard to Afghanistan?
My list of challenges last year this time more or less nailed it, especially my concerns about the Mubarak era ending in Egypt. Many of the dangers to which I pointed still exist, of course, but a whole host of new difficulties has emerged.
5. The compromise reached in Yemen is unacceptable to many reformers. Although Ali Abdullah Saieh says he is stepping down in favor of his vice president, he seems likely to remain the power behind the throne. He essentially has amnesty for his crimes through 2011. Yemen even in the best of times faces severe problems of water and resources and extreme rural poverty. Muslim radical movements are significant in the rural areas. Instability in Yemen can affect security in the Red Sea, southern Saudi Arabia, and even the US itself, as with the bombing plots originating there. The US should pressure Saleh to make the transition to another leader quicker and less chaotic.
4. Pakistan’s politics is crisis-prone, but this year governance reached new lows of efficiency. The possibility that president Asaf Ali Zardari attempted to reach out to the US military for help with curbing his own officer corps, dubbed “Memogate” in Islamabad, has made relations between the civilian government and the military “frosty.” The US Congress is withholding military aid to Pakistan this year, which has already begun driving Pakistan closer to China. Flashpoints include hot pursuit at the AfPak border, US drone strikes on militants in the Federally Administered Tribal areas, NATO transport of goods through Pakistan to Afghanistan, and covert Pakistani support for the Haqqani Network, which the uS calls a terrorist organization. Bad relations between the US and Pakistan could negatively affect the course of the Afghan War and presents problems for US policy in South Asia as a whole.
3. The crisis in Syria remains grave. It can only end in one of three ways: The regime succeeds in repressing the reform movement, 2) the reform movement comes to power, or 3) the regime makes enough changes to allow a slow transition away from one-party authoritarianism. In the meantime, destabilizing hostilities could break out, with resultant instability in Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
2. The elections in Egypt are producing a parliament strongly dominated by representatives of political Islam, whether the Muslim Brotherhood or the Salafis. The Muslim Brotherhood is making it clear that they want to submit the 1979 Camp David Peace treaty to a national referendum. A Muslim Brotherhood prime minister or president is most unlikely to be willing to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or to continue to help impose a blockade on the Palestinian civilians of Gaza. The Egyptian military is still ultimately in control, and it does not want hostilities with Israel, so that this change is unlikely to go beyond producing tensions. But if the Israelis believed that the Egyptians were lax in their inspections at the Rafah checkpoint at Gaza, they might well bomb it, risking killing Egyptian troops. How such actions could spiral out of control is something no one can predict. In any case, rising Egyptian-Israeli tensions for the first time since the early 1970s present a severe challenge to US policy, which attempts to maintain good relations with both.
1. Iran presents the greatest challenges to Washington policy, mainly because Washington insists on building up Iran as a threat. The Iraq of PM Nouri al-Maliki has been moving closer to Iran, both because al-Maliki owes his position as prime minister to Iran, and in part because Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Bahrain has alarmed Shiite-ruled Baghdad. The low-key war between the US and Iran could be ratcheted up by legislation just passed by Congress that targets the Central Bank, based in Tehran. The US is increasingly blockading Iran, an act of war in international law, and the possibility of escalating tensions leading in unexpected and tragic directions cannot be discounted.
Admiral Mike Mullen, outgoing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently told Congress that the Haqqani Network, a guerrilla group accused of hitting the US embassy in Kabul, is an “arm” of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) immediately suggested that if the US military wanted to attack Pakistan, it would have support on the Hill.
It has long been apparent that Karzai, a putative American ally, has some sort of mental problem. He has been known to rant that he made a mistake in allying with the US against the Taliban, and should have backed the latter. Last year he told astonished visiting US congressmen that if the US pressured him too much, he would join the Taliban directly.
It would sort of be as though Prime Minister David Cameron, an ally of the US, should occasionally threaten to join al-Qaeda.
But then sometimes he praises the US and lambastes Pakistan for supporting Taliban
One of the big problems with the ‘counter-insurgency’ program of Gen. David Petraeus in Afghanistan is that counter-insurgency requires a reliable local partner. But the US only has Hamid Karzai, who stole his last presidential election and who micro-manages Kabul while letting much of the country go to hell, and he has now pledged a defense pact with Pakistan against his US ally.
It makes a person angry about the idea of US troops losing their lives to defend and stand up the Karzai government.
Below is a transcript of the relevant part of the Karzai interview on Geo, the Pakistani satellite channel, courtesy the USG Open Source Center:
‘ President Kazai Says Afghanistan To Stand by Pakistan in Case of Foreign Attack
Words and sentences in double slantlines in English
Geo News TV
Saturday, October 22, 2011 …
Document Type: OSC Translated Text…
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said that Afghanistan would support Pakistan in case of an attack by India, the United States or any country. Talking to senior anchor person of Geo News, he said no country can give dictation to Afghans against Pakistan.
(Begin recording) (Karzai) God forbade, if any war took place between Pakistan and the United States. We will stand by Pakistan.
(Saleem Safi) Well, you will stand by Pakistan.
(Karzai) Yes, definitely. We are your brothers. The way Pakistan provided us shelter and the way Pakistan gave us homes considering us as brothers. And we remained there as refugees with great respect. In the same manner, God forbade if Pakistan is….
(Safi interrupts) This is a big claim. God forbade, if there is a war between Pakistan and India then?
(Karzai) No, if anyone attacked Pakistan. //If Pakistan is attacked and if the people of Pakistan needed Afghanistan’s help, Afghanistan will be there with you. Afghanistan is a brother. But please brother, stop using all methods that hurt us and are now hurting you. Let us engage from a different platform. The platform in which the two brothers only progress towards a better future in peace and harmony, and Afghanistan will be with you. So Afghanistan is not going to be dictated in any way by any country US or India or Russia or China or whoever. Afghanistan has its own policy, its own (word indistinct), its own clear view on things. And from that point of view, from that stance it is dealing with its brothers in Pakistan.// (end recording) ‘
The USG Open Source Center translates or paraphrases Pakistani Urdu newspaper editorials responding to the US threats against Pakistan should it not curb the Haqqani Network (Pashtun Mujahidin based in North Waziristan). The US is convinced that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence is running the Haqqani Network to project Pakistani power into Afghanistan.
Some newspapers urge that the Pakistani government develop contingency plans for the defense of the country if the United States should attack it (as Sen. Lindsey Graham appeared to call for on Sunday) Other newspapers expressed confidence that the two countries would work out their disputes with wisdom .
Urdu Press Discusses Pakistan Strong Opposition To US Threats
The following is a roundup of excerpts from editorial and articles on the tension between Pakistan and the US over the latter’s insistence that former should take action against the Haqqani network or else it will do it at its own, and need for chalking out strategy to counter the US pressure, published in the 26 September 2011 editions of 7 Urdu dailies.
Pakistan — OSC Summary
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Document Type: OSC Summary…
Nawa-e-Waqt Editorial Terms US Pressure as Opportunity for Nation To Unite
Demanding formulation of a national policy to safeguard the integrity of the country, the editorial states: “It has now become necessary that the joint session of the parliament should be convened to formulate a national policy to defend and protect the integrity of the country. The country should leave the war of the US interests and the Armed Forces of Pakistan should be put on alert to defend the borders of the country on all fronts. That is why, Prime Minister Gilani has perhaps made telephone contacts with the political leaders and decided to convene an all parties conference soon. It is welcoming. Similarly, the decision to recall Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar from the US is also appreciable. At this stage, nothing can be dear to us than the security of the country. We thank the United Sates because its aggressive policies and designs against our integrity have provided an opportunity for us to unite as a nation and concentrate.”
(Description of source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu — Privately owned, widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000. Harshly critical of the United States and India.)
Jang Editorial Emphasizes Need For Formulating Strategy to Deal With Possible US Action
Maintaining that Pakistan should formulate its strategy by keeping all eventualities in view, the editorial says: “The nation will stand with the rulers like a strong fortress provided that they show steadfastness, because the people of Pakistan are no more ready to accept any policy contrary to the national dignity. Similarly, it is the responsibility of our political parties to unite to back the national stance. There is likelihood in the prevailing situation lest the United States should take some dangerous action against us. We should chalk out our strategy by keeping all these possibilities in mind. It is hoped that the commanders’ conference would have taken stock of all these important aspects.”
(Description of source: Rawalpindi Jang in Urdu – “The War,” an influential, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan, circulation of 300,000. One of the moderate Urdu newspapers, pro-free enterprise, politically neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India relations.)
Express Article by Zamrud Naqvi Highlights Army Chief’s Statement
Referring to the reaction expressed by Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kyani over the allegations leveled by Admiral Mike Mullen, the article states: “Kayani said that the US admiral knows well ‘which counties’ have links with the Haqqani network. It is unjust and unproductive to single out Pakistan for blame. The Army Chief said that Admiral Mullen fully knows that which countries are in contact with the Haqqani network. The allegations are troublesome because recent meeting held with Admiral Mullen in Spain was very constructive. However, we have deep concern about such statements. The Army Chief emphatically turned down the allegations of proxy war against Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) saying that the blame game should come to an end now. Pakistan is not part of any proxy war.”
(Description of source: Islamabad Daily Express in Urdu — Daily owned by Century Publications of the Lakson Business Group. The second largest daily after the Jang newspaper with a circulation of over 120,000. Provides good coverage of national and international issues and follows moderate and neutral editorial policy.)
Jinnah Article by Khushnood Ali Khan Believes Pakistan Conveyed Strong Message To US
Discussing reports that Islamabad has told Washington to produce evidence of its involvement in Kabul attack or else stop the blame game, the article says: “The truth is that the Americans have been told that they should talk in an honorable way if they want to talk. No pressure will work now and we shall not hear calls to do more. It has also been told to the US and Afghanistan that if any attack is launched from Afghanistan, it will fully be retaliated. The Pakistani Army, air force, and the navy are on high alert. Pakistan has made it clear to the United States that it should produce evidence if it has any about attack on the US Embassy in Kabul otherwise it should stop the blame game and hostile statements.”
(Description of source: Islamabad Jinnah in Urdu — Daily owned by a prominent businessman who is mainly involved in real estate business and said to be close to military high-ups. Carries good investigative reports and conducts surveys on relevant issues. Editorials are harshly critical of US policies. Recently it has adopted sensationalist reporting and tends to splash corruption stories out of proportion. Editor Khushnood Ali Khan strongly criticizes Musharraf in his daily columns.)
Jinnah Editorial Calls for Chalking Out Policy to Counter US Plan
Commenting that the US blame game is part of its strategy for the period after its post withdrawal from Afghanistan, the editorial states: “The current US behavior and its planning ahead of its withdrawal from Afghanistan demands that Pakistan’s political and military leadership should join heads together and think, by keeping in view the broader national interests, independence, security, and sovereignty, as to what strategy we are required to adopt in this situation. Our trustworthy friendly countries like China and Iran have fully backed our stance and acknowledged our role in war on terror. We should be ready to counter the plan that the United States has made after its withdrawal from Afghanistan. We should also take stock of the situation and happenings with full seriousness and in light of ground realities and realize that we cannot counter some eventuality or extraordinary situation by blame game only. Our military leadership has taken right decision in view of the national interests.”
Mashriq Editorial Terms Unity Prerequisite for Success
Advising the rulers to focus on uniting and strengthening the nation to counter the external challenges, the editorial says: “Responsibilities should be assigned to intellectuals and honorable people to end ethnic and sectarian differences. The political leadership should leave the job of challenging the United States to the concerned people and focus on resolution of the people’s problems. We do not say that the government should accept the US as master and bow before it but we can make preparedness after overcoming the challenges faced on the internal front that may enable us to give befitting response to any hostile power of the world. A divided nation cannot achieve success.”
(Description of source: Peshawar Mashriq in Urdu – “The East,” a prominent daily newspaper published by Mashriq Group of Newspapers. Provides good coverage of events in Peshawar as well as tribal areas along the Afghan border. The Statesman in English is a sister publication from the same group.)
Ummat Article by Nadim Mehmood Discusses Meeting Between Pakistan Army Chief, Head of US Central Command
Referring to the complain by Pakistan Army Chief in his meeting with head of the US Central Command that the United States did not act upon the consensus reached at Spain meeting with Admiral Mullen, the article states: “According to the sources, at the meeting General Kayani referred to his recent talks with Admiral Mike Mullen in Spain and made it clear that it was agreed that the top military leadership of the two countries will refrain from issuing strict statements on the Pakistan-US strategic relations but the latter did not act on it. The sources say that Gen Mattis said on the occasion that the US administration is under great pressure from the Congress, Pentagon, and its people that strict steps should be taken in response to Pakistan government’s policy of not taking action against the Haqqani network. However, Gen Kayani did not give any signal to Gen Mattis about launching operation in North Waziristan but clearly stated that Pakistan will launch such action or take any step by keeping in view its own interests. He said that we shall also have to keep the sentiments of our people in view in this connection.”
(Description of source: Karachi Ummat in Urdu — Sensationalist, pro-Usama Bin Ladin Urdu daily. Harshly critical of the US, Israel, and India. Propagates Muslim unity to counter US/Western influence. Circulation 20,000. Editor-publisher Rafiq Afghan is an Afghan war veteran.)
Khabrain Editorial Suggests Resolving Issues Through Diplomacy
Maintaining that reason and diplomacy should go hand in hand to improve the situation, the editorial says: “It is expected that both the countries will give preference to wisdom and sagacity over aggression and resolve the issues through diplomacy, be these diplomatic means or military sources. However, we should brace for the worst while hoping for the best. The political and military leadership of Pakistan should mentally prepare itself for all the possibilities and apprise the nation of all facts. The courage and prudence should go hand in hand.”
(Description of source: Islamabad Khabrain in Urdu – “News,” a sensationalist daily, published by Liberty Papers Ltd., generally critical of the Pakistan People’s Party; known for its access to government and military sources of information. The same group owns The Post in English, Naya Akhbar in Urdu, and Channel 5 TV with a circulation of 30,000.)
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