Surprised you haven't added Iran to the list. Although not an immediate neighbor, Iran is a key ally of the allawite regime in Syria. If they lose this struggle it would be a major blow, and could spark a sectarian counter-reaction in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's eastern province.
Shame you haven't drawn the link to the case of camelia, the Coptic wife of a priest who tried to escape an abusive marriage by converting to Islam. When the Egyptian authorities frustrated this it caused great anger among Egyptian islamists. Blaming it on foreign elements sidesteps this issue.
An Iraqiyya-Kurdish-SCIRI alliance is certainly unlikely, but it is not impossible. This quote from the Kurdish Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, best sums up the current situation:
"Now, if we side with Maliki, we can form a government in two days’ time. Or if we side with Iraqiya, we will form a government tomorrow with the support of the [Islamic] Supreme Council.”
"I think it is now the case that no one else [other than Maliki] could hope to form a government."
That wasn't true last time you called it and still isn't true. Maliki is clearly closest to the government and is highly likely to remain PM. However, there remains the other possible combination:
Iraqqiyya - 91
Coalition of the Kurdish Lists - 57 (or possibly 49 if you exclude Gorran who are reported to have withdrawn from the Coalition)
ISCI - 9
Total - 157
Although tecnically short of the 163 majority figure, there are enough independents to make a majority. As soon as Mahdi won the vote for PM, the Sadrists and main State of Law politicians would abandon Maliki and join the government.
More intriguing, the alternative route post the Supreme Court ruling is that you have a forced vote before any government "deal" is done. What would happen if you had someone like Osama al-Tikriti elected speaker, Talabani President and then Mahdi and Maliki head to head in an election for PM? Could be too close to call. Mahdi would have a better chance of forming a unity government, so the Kurds may pip for him.
@Phud 1:
"It would be very helpful if the other Arab states would offer carrots to Israel ... make it clear that the benefits of progress in the negotiations would extend beyond better relations between Israel and the Palestinians."
I agree we are one step closer to finally getting a government, and that if the maliki-sadr-kurdish coalition gets together this will be a significant victory for Iran. It's also bad news for democracy in Iraq, given the tendency for this trend towards fraud and disqualifications (remind you of the Guardian Council at all?)
But we're not there yet. There are increasing rumours that Iraqiyya, ISCI and Fadhila could play the same game as Maliki and merge to form a larger post-election coalition. They could then nominate Abdul Mahdi as PM. It would be up to the Kurds to decide which to go with. A Kurd-Iraqiyya-ISCI-Fadhila combine would also have a comfortable majority. Given their close relations with Abdul Mahdi it is not completely out of the question for them to choose him over Maliki - despite the considerable enmity with al-Hadba in Mosul and the Turkomens in Kirkuk.
The next couple of weeks will be crucial to Iraq's future.
A good article, well written - many thanks. One comment:
"to move away from the prime ministerial position is to be ignored and much less revered."
As you mentioned later, it is also to be threatened. Not only will you and your cronies lose their civil service jobs and access to the proceeds of corruption, you risk being the victim of malicious prosecution for corruption or ust dirty tricks by the new power.
In a sense it's surprising that Allawi, Jaafari, Chalabi and Mehdi have managed to keep going after losing their elections, and still retain their limited political influence. That is an important sign for the future - Maliki doesn't have to hold on for dear life, because he may get his turn again in the future and life after PM won't be unbearable.
Surprised you haven't added Iran to the list. Although not an immediate neighbor, Iran is a key ally of the allawite regime in Syria. If they lose this struggle it would be a major blow, and could spark a sectarian counter-reaction in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's eastern province.
Shame you haven't drawn the link to the case of camelia, the Coptic wife of a priest who tried to escape an abusive marriage by converting to Islam. When the Egyptian authorities frustrated this it caused great anger among Egyptian islamists. Blaming it on foreign elements sidesteps this issue.
Reference for the quote:
http://www.rudaw.net/english/news/iraq/3271.html
An Iraqiyya-Kurdish-SCIRI alliance is certainly unlikely, but it is not impossible. This quote from the Kurdish Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, best sums up the current situation:
"Now, if we side with Maliki, we can form a government in two days’ time. Or if we side with Iraqiya, we will form a government tomorrow with the support of the [Islamic] Supreme Council.”
"I think it is now the case that no one else [other than Maliki] could hope to form a government."
That wasn't true last time you called it and still isn't true. Maliki is clearly closest to the government and is highly likely to remain PM. However, there remains the other possible combination:
Iraqqiyya - 91
Coalition of the Kurdish Lists - 57 (or possibly 49 if you exclude Gorran who are reported to have withdrawn from the Coalition)
ISCI - 9
Total - 157
Although tecnically short of the 163 majority figure, there are enough independents to make a majority. As soon as Mahdi won the vote for PM, the Sadrists and main State of Law politicians would abandon Maliki and join the government.
More intriguing, the alternative route post the Supreme Court ruling is that you have a forced vote before any government "deal" is done. What would happen if you had someone like Osama al-Tikriti elected speaker, Talabani President and then Mahdi and Maliki head to head in an election for PM? Could be too close to call. Mahdi would have a better chance of forming a unity government, so the Kurds may pip for him.
@Phud 1:
"It would be very helpful if the other Arab states would offer carrots to Israel ... make it clear that the benefits of progress in the negotiations would extend beyond better relations between Israel and the Palestinians."
They have already made that clear, repeatedly. See, for instance, http://enwp.org/Arab_Peace_Initiative
I agree we are one step closer to finally getting a government, and that if the maliki-sadr-kurdish coalition gets together this will be a significant victory for Iran. It's also bad news for democracy in Iraq, given the tendency for this trend towards fraud and disqualifications (remind you of the Guardian Council at all?)
But we're not there yet. There are increasing rumours that Iraqiyya, ISCI and Fadhila could play the same game as Maliki and merge to form a larger post-election coalition. They could then nominate Abdul Mahdi as PM. It would be up to the Kurds to decide which to go with. A Kurd-Iraqiyya-ISCI-Fadhila combine would also have a comfortable majority. Given their close relations with Abdul Mahdi it is not completely out of the question for them to choose him over Maliki - despite the considerable enmity with al-Hadba in Mosul and the Turkomens in Kirkuk.
The next couple of weeks will be crucial to Iraq's future.
A good article, well written - many thanks. One comment:
"to move away from the prime ministerial position is to be ignored and much less revered."
As you mentioned later, it is also to be threatened. Not only will you and your cronies lose their civil service jobs and access to the proceeds of corruption, you risk being the victim of malicious prosecution for corruption or ust dirty tricks by the new power.
In a sense it's surprising that Allawi, Jaafari, Chalabi and Mehdi have managed to keep going after losing their elections, and still retain their limited political influence. That is an important sign for the future - Maliki doesn't have to hold on for dear life, because he may get his turn again in the future and life after PM won't be unbearable.