Tactics dictate that an attacking army be at a 3 to 1 ratio to defenders. 500 troops in not much when the defenders have so many force multipliers. The US DoD is much better suited to take on this type of 'modern' army. No matter the morals that attack was a stupid bad idea.
How long ago was there an option of using secular humanist (YPG/J, etc) as a fighting force? I ask this because I have a theory that they were there for a while but wouldn't get previous administrations help because of their "evil" socialist belief. This in opposition to arming the house of Saud which as far as I can tell is ISIS with US oil contracts. My belief is that it took the Obama admin to look beyond arming religious radicals to fight religious radicals. Was our bias against anyone who might nationalize local energy resources (oil) and for religious extremist who would deal oil cheaply? Thank you for your response.
The Nazi Germans almost had a winter party in Moscow thanks to Stalin's purge of the Soviet military. With so much of Turkey's military purged so soon I have some doubts as to how effective their forces would be during an invasion. The SDF are now battle hardened and will have a wealth of defensive tactics learned from their islamist adversary. Thoughts?
When the news reports regularly broadcast sentences such as "Iran is the greatest source of terrorism in the ME" in between reports of ISIS atrocities you can be sure we in the US are being prepped for war with the Shia. Its revolting.
I remember blurbs about ME socialism, specifically the kurds, in the news media during the Bush gulf wars. I had wondered for years why we didnt support more modern ideals in the ME. Well it takes alot of time to learn about my govs support of fundy islam in exchange for petro. So I was actually thrilled when Obama first started to support the YPG in Kobani. Obama was the change I voted for. Turkey, as a NATO ally, turned away from our shared values. It treated the kurds like the IDF treats the occupied territories. There is a consistancy there. Obama made distance between Erdogen and Netanyahu for the right reasons.
Without that strong left influence to see other allies in the ME besides religious wackos we would have just armed some other non-Isis isis.
Thank you Mr. Page. Lets not forget that Trump lead the whole "Birther" movement. This isn't normal. Those who think the left should just "get along" do not understand the deep racial underpinnings of this country nor the deep sentiment of much of the population that we are not going back.
Nope. Ya'll looking waaay to deep into this. The next US Iran shoot out will be an old school Persian gulf/straight of hormuz fiasco. Between the high number of nervous USN ships transiting and IRG (or even regular navy assets) ships increasing their vigilance it's just a matter of time before "accidents happen".
Incidents will morf into face saving measures which will result in defensive counter attacks which then become " fights for freedom ".
Are you really suggesting that Juan Cole is somehow wanting to make Turkey like the USA? Really?
Really?
Really.
It is then a short amount of time until you accuse him of being a leading FETO spokesperson and a coup plotter.
"There is no evidence of any significant Iranian support for the Houthis;"
True to some extent. However, those sandle wearing rebels didn't just trip over those C802 missiles in a warehouse. In fact, I have a hard time believing the Houthis fired those missiles at all. It makes no sense strategically from their POV. Its doubtful that the technical skill is within their ranks. My guess is IRG. This was the same missile that did in the Israeli patrol boat a few years back. That was Hezbollah who do have IRG ties.
Many of you are forgetting to put the tinfoil hats on. If the US wanted to bomb Assad and start a war it would have chosen a better target. You think air support is easy like top gun it's not. Mistakes will be made. However, for a country that has cruise missiles, B2s, and mobile artillery the US could do a lot better than an F18 bombing some 3rd rate militia on the margins. C'Mon! When the US starts wars we do it right!
I don't trust the media either but jeez you can't ignore the NYT but believe RT line and sinker.
Why are we still supporting AQ types after 9/11? Same reason as before 9/11. We have used jihadi muscle to keep our oil prices down. Those Sauds keep the light sweet flowing and we keep the money rollin. Our SUVs are bumpin while whabbi mosques keep opening. It's just big business both oil and religion.
Buy a PV panel and put a sign on it that says "this machine kills facist...both Cheney and Saud.
1. I don't think the Kurds voted en mass for Edrogen. I believe they vote for the HYD party.
2. Air power doesn't win a ground war. Otherwise why use the YPG? We could just bomb the like you (and the US neo-con chickenhawks) say.
3. The YPG didn't force anyone into mass migration as they were simply Syrian before the war. And remember it was the PKK who started the rescue of the Yezidi before any one gave a shit. If it wasn't for the PKK then ISIS would have cleared the Yezidi's out of Sinjar. So you can thank the PKK for avoiding that part of the genocide.
Let's not advertise that whole NATO connection. That type of collaberation requires a professional officer core with shared values. The Turkish military was just purged of those types and will become Erdogen / religious fanatics. Not the types that you want to share missile launch codes with. There is no doubt turkey actively supported Isis (who like Assad) saw them as convenient for a time. But as a westerner and a secularist I see anyone who works with Isis/jihadist as an enemy. So let's stay with these underdog YPG SDF types. Let's ditch erdogen-the house of saud-etc. Our long term interest lie in a modern ME not a religious nut job one.
#7 because they won't. Turkey didn't liberate Jarbulus...Isis just gave them the keys. Every town taken from Isis was after weeks of fighting and destruction. Jarabulus was what....a 1 day affair?!?! That wasn't a battle but collaboration. Our NATO partner is Isis.
Who are these people claiming the SAA should be fighting IsIs in Hasakah? They can't even leave their own base? What forces that are used are artillery on civilians and/or barrel bombs again on civilians. The SAA is about as inept of an army as one could have. Having a "right" in war is a sensless stupid question. The Assad regime had pissed off much of its population prior and now we see the effects as they can't even engage forces within its territory. If you can't hold territory in war then its not yours.
And if it he someone then might as well be secular YPG backed by USA.
All the proposed solutions are completely meaningless. Given the birth rates of these nations any solution would be temporary as the added increase of people would cancel out any water savings. There is a finite amount of people an area can sustain called "carrying capacity". Clearly is being breached. The only solution would be full women's rights and complete access to birth control. Unfortunately, these are things that tend to decrease in war areas making a vicious circle. And please do not think this is only limited to the M.E.
"Whisky is for drinking and water is for fighting"
- Mark Twain
The YPG would handle the Assad regime. The river is the natural boundary and either side may just on either side.
Let's note the irony of US backed leftist commies fighting Russian backed secular gov.
I recently watched the front line regarding SA. I had no idea they cracked down on musicians. The show had a clip where a man playing the lute (a lute!) when he was accosted by religious police and Hus instrument broken.
This is what ISIS does. In fact I came away from the show with the knowledge that SA is ISIS with oil contracts. SA is not humane nor civilized. They shod be treated like south Africa was in the 80s.
Mist of those trucks are driven by average folks...the people we are trying to 'save'. And for the record the US has used a-10s as recently as last week on oil trucks. Don't play this more macho than Putin game. The us and Russians fight very differently and to triad the tea leaves about strategic policy from tactical ops is a mistake.
I agree w/sunflower. These are despite acts. They want a glorious end with western invasion. Isis lives in between the conflict if others. A modern crusades would create much real estate for them. There are plenty of locals who want to destroy Isis. They just need anti tank (TOWs) and air power. France has sold these items plenty of times.
In my rookie understanding of the area's politics I understand that there is a political spectrum of kurds. Does the Turkish government make any distinction between the PKK and the YPG/J? Thanks.
CAS isn't Hollywood magic. It takes a team to coordinate air attacks including forward observers of the ground to call targets. Now that we have a pres who seems to want to aim before he fires it makes sense to exclude militias. CAS implies imbedded special forces (boots on the ground..shhhh!!!) within the regular ground forces. Kinda hard to do with militias.
Dear World...Our primitive democracy has been corrupted by war lords who use our resources to fund their own political agendas. Please send UN democracy experts to our country!
Rookie question... what marked the houti rebels worthy of Saudi intervention yet ISIS can only generate a " meh". As the rookie I want to say that maybe the average saud and the avg ISIS see eye to eye. As a western secularist I've rooted for the non fundamentalist and non oil company backed people. And I know the houtis are not them. Yet I don't see how the houtis, in Saudi eyes, can be more dangerous than Isis even to the house of said. Thanks!
I want to see you and "yea, right" in an internet Godwin argument. The fact of the matter is the Ukraine is not the next Nazi Germany and they are not Nazis. To say otherwise is to ignore history and current events.
I cant figure out if you cant read or you cant count.
But go ahead and pretend that "According to news reports, Washington has decided to arm Ukraine for renewed military assault on Russian ethnics in Donetsk and Luhansk." is the same as "pushing for renewed ethnic cleansing". Nevermind the fact that I cant find any source telling me that we are arming Ukraine. And certainly with nothing to commit ethnic cleansing. Pure hype.
"pushing for renewed ethnic cleansing"
Cut the BS. Ukraine is not nazi Germany part II. The Godwin law basically states that when your argument resorts to the ad hominum of "your side is the nazi Germany side" then you lose the intellectual debate. The Russia meme of calling the opposition 'Nazi's' rings very hollow.
Awesome. When you have a 17th philosophy that shuns the 21th it has consequences. Modern western armies have learned the hard way that air power can be decisive. Once the guerilla army became the occupying force its changes it dynamics completely. It now must have a static army and long supply lines. The same weakness that the US had during its occupation. The same weakness that ISIS et al took advantage of before the US left. Pity the army that does not have some ability to protect itself from air attack. Unless its ISIS then they get what they deserve.
So will they then have an IS version of Leman Brothers? Will slick IS real estate merchants go walking around saying "Its a new market...prices will only go up! Real Estate is an investment!"
"it seems that the two countries’ scientists are getting on fine: the number of collaborative papers between them rose almost fivefold from 388 to 1831 over the same period.”
Imagine if these were the newspaper headlines people read everyday.
This is my thought as well. ISIS has tactics but no strategy (besides bleeding US dry..that one is kinda working). I just wanted to post this so I can be the second one to say "called it".
Honest question...
When does this become 'ethnic cleansing'?
Tactics dictate that an attacking army be at a 3 to 1 ratio to defenders. 500 troops in not much when the defenders have so many force multipliers. The US DoD is much better suited to take on this type of 'modern' army. No matter the morals that attack was a stupid bad idea.
Mr. Cole,
How long ago was there an option of using secular humanist (YPG/J, etc) as a fighting force? I ask this because I have a theory that they were there for a while but wouldn't get previous administrations help because of their "evil" socialist belief. This in opposition to arming the house of Saud which as far as I can tell is ISIS with US oil contracts. My belief is that it took the Obama admin to look beyond arming religious radicals to fight religious radicals. Was our bias against anyone who might nationalize local energy resources (oil) and for religious extremist who would deal oil cheaply? Thank you for your response.
Go watch old episodes of the tv show "Cops" from 20 years ago and now.
The Nazi Germans almost had a winter party in Moscow thanks to Stalin's purge of the Soviet military. With so much of Turkey's military purged so soon I have some doubts as to how effective their forces would be during an invasion. The SDF are now battle hardened and will have a wealth of defensive tactics learned from their islamist adversary. Thoughts?
Any chanve the news network could go to a crowd sourced type of model i.e. PBS or some new model?
When the news reports regularly broadcast sentences such as "Iran is the greatest source of terrorism in the ME" in between reports of ISIS atrocities you can be sure we in the US are being prepped for war with the Shia. Its revolting.
I remember blurbs about ME socialism, specifically the kurds, in the news media during the Bush gulf wars. I had wondered for years why we didnt support more modern ideals in the ME. Well it takes alot of time to learn about my govs support of fundy islam in exchange for petro. So I was actually thrilled when Obama first started to support the YPG in Kobani. Obama was the change I voted for. Turkey, as a NATO ally, turned away from our shared values. It treated the kurds like the IDF treats the occupied territories. There is a consistancy there. Obama made distance between Erdogen and Netanyahu for the right reasons.
Without that strong left influence to see other allies in the ME besides religious wackos we would have just armed some other non-Isis isis.
I got the Rockwell reference. Thanks for making me feel old.
Thank you Mr. Page. Lets not forget that Trump lead the whole "Birther" movement. This isn't normal. Those who think the left should just "get along" do not understand the deep racial underpinnings of this country nor the deep sentiment of much of the population that we are not going back.
Nope. Ya'll looking waaay to deep into this. The next US Iran shoot out will be an old school Persian gulf/straight of hormuz fiasco. Between the high number of nervous USN ships transiting and IRG (or even regular navy assets) ships increasing their vigilance it's just a matter of time before "accidents happen".
Incidents will morf into face saving measures which will result in defensive counter attacks which then become " fights for freedom ".
So the guy who started birth certificates drama is being tarnished by unverified rumors?
I am genuinely starting to believe in God.
If Ellison could pull numbers from the religious crowd for actually being religious it might be a game changer.
I mean crazier things have happened in election politics. Like a three time married gambling house builder getting 81% of the evangelical vote...
We are one world. Two people. Hard liners vs everyone else. The hard liners have won in America and hardliners in Iran look to set a "comeback" soon.
To the good people of Iran that might read this, I'm sorry if our crazys start a fight with your crazys. I wish you all the best.
"unless the USA government is willing to subsidize them with massive amounts of tax dollars (socialism)."
If we do a tenth of what we subsidize oil we would have solar panel heated lattes out of every starbucks.
Are you really suggesting that Juan Cole is somehow wanting to make Turkey like the USA? Really?
Really?
Really.
It is then a short amount of time until you accuse him of being a leading FETO spokesperson and a coup plotter.
Hi Habemus, Erdogen thinks your doing a great job!
"There is no evidence of any significant Iranian support for the Houthis;"
True to some extent. However, those sandle wearing rebels didn't just trip over those C802 missiles in a warehouse. In fact, I have a hard time believing the Houthis fired those missiles at all. It makes no sense strategically from their POV. Its doubtful that the technical skill is within their ranks. My guess is IRG. This was the same missile that did in the Israeli patrol boat a few years back. That was Hezbollah who do have IRG ties.
My $.02
I'll take the change.
Many of you are forgetting to put the tinfoil hats on. If the US wanted to bomb Assad and start a war it would have chosen a better target. You think air support is easy like top gun it's not. Mistakes will be made. However, for a country that has cruise missiles, B2s, and mobile artillery the US could do a lot better than an F18 bombing some 3rd rate militia on the margins. C'Mon! When the US starts wars we do it right!
I don't trust the media either but jeez you can't ignore the NYT but believe RT line and sinker.
I'd rather support hammer sickle socialists than religious nutjobs.
Why are we still supporting AQ types after 9/11? Same reason as before 9/11. We have used jihadi muscle to keep our oil prices down. Those Sauds keep the light sweet flowing and we keep the money rollin. Our SUVs are bumpin while whabbi mosques keep opening. It's just big business both oil and religion.
Buy a PV panel and put a sign on it that says "this machine kills facist...both Cheney and Saud.
According to this article Germany is partly to blame for the Turkish brain drain.
http://oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-prices-and-syrian-civil-war.php
Would love to hear your anaylsis.
1. I don't think the Kurds voted en mass for Edrogen. I believe they vote for the HYD party.
2. Air power doesn't win a ground war. Otherwise why use the YPG? We could just bomb the like you (and the US neo-con chickenhawks) say.
3. The YPG didn't force anyone into mass migration as they were simply Syrian before the war. And remember it was the PKK who started the rescue of the Yezidi before any one gave a shit. If it wasn't for the PKK then ISIS would have cleared the Yezidi's out of Sinjar. So you can thank the PKK for avoiding that part of the genocide.
Then I'm glad he crossed the red line with Kurds and secular heroes and not neo-con WMD airstrike nonsense.
Let's not advertise that whole NATO connection. That type of collaberation requires a professional officer core with shared values. The Turkish military was just purged of those types and will become Erdogen / religious fanatics. Not the types that you want to share missile launch codes with. There is no doubt turkey actively supported Isis (who like Assad) saw them as convenient for a time. But as a westerner and a secularist I see anyone who works with Isis/jihadist as an enemy. So let's stay with these underdog YPG SDF types. Let's ditch erdogen-the house of saud-etc. Our long term interest lie in a modern ME not a religious nut job one.
#7 because they won't. Turkey didn't liberate Jarbulus...Isis just gave them the keys. Every town taken from Isis was after weeks of fighting and destruction. Jarabulus was what....a 1 day affair?!?! That wasn't a battle but collaboration. Our NATO partner is Isis.
Who are these people claiming the SAA should be fighting IsIs in Hasakah? They can't even leave their own base? What forces that are used are artillery on civilians and/or barrel bombs again on civilians. The SAA is about as inept of an army as one could have. Having a "right" in war is a sensless stupid question. The Assad regime had pissed off much of its population prior and now we see the effects as they can't even engage forces within its territory. If you can't hold territory in war then its not yours.
And if it he someone then might as well be secular YPG backed by USA.
Not doing anything. #ReallyAbsurd
I'm glad Sinjar was liberated. Same for Kobane to Manjib.
Thanks Obama!
All the proposed solutions are completely meaningless. Given the birth rates of these nations any solution would be temporary as the added increase of people would cancel out any water savings. There is a finite amount of people an area can sustain called "carrying capacity". Clearly is being breached. The only solution would be full women's rights and complete access to birth control. Unfortunately, these are things that tend to decrease in war areas making a vicious circle. And please do not think this is only limited to the M.E.
"Whisky is for drinking and water is for fighting"
- Mark Twain
The YPG would handle the Assad regime. The river is the natural boundary and either side may just on either side.
Let's note the irony of US backed leftist commies fighting Russian backed secular gov.
I recently watched the front line regarding SA. I had no idea they cracked down on musicians. The show had a clip where a man playing the lute (a lute!) when he was accosted by religious police and Hus instrument broken.
This is what ISIS does. In fact I came away from the show with the knowledge that SA is ISIS with oil contracts. SA is not humane nor civilized. They shod be treated like south Africa was in the 80s.
I bet a military aid package to Greece soon becomes popular. That will shut erdogen up for a bit.
If we are nice they will let us have some!
Mist of those trucks are driven by average folks...the people we are trying to 'save'. And for the record the US has used a-10s as recently as last week on oil trucks. Don't play this more macho than Putin game. The us and Russians fight very differently and to triad the tea leaves about strategic policy from tactical ops is a mistake.
I agree w/sunflower. These are despite acts. They want a glorious end with western invasion. Isis lives in between the conflict if others. A modern crusades would create much real estate for them. There are plenty of locals who want to destroy Isis. They just need anti tank (TOWs) and air power. France has sold these items plenty of times.
Sooo...
How long before mampads become part of some rebel arsenal?
Can't wait for the western backed comie Kurds go to war with Russian backed shia militias. I grew up in the cold war so the irony will be delicious.
In my rookie understanding of the area's politics I understand that there is a political spectrum of kurds. Does the Turkish government make any distinction between the PKK and the YPG/J? Thanks.
CAS isn't Hollywood magic. It takes a team to coordinate air attacks including forward observers of the ground to call targets. Now that we have a pres who seems to want to aim before he fires it makes sense to exclude militias. CAS implies imbedded special forces (boots on the ground..shhhh!!!) within the regular ground forces. Kinda hard to do with militias.
Dear World...Our primitive democracy has been corrupted by war lords who use our resources to fund their own political agendas. Please send UN democracy experts to our country!
Rookie question... what marked the houti rebels worthy of Saudi intervention yet ISIS can only generate a " meh". As the rookie I want to say that maybe the average saud and the avg ISIS see eye to eye. As a western secularist I've rooted for the non fundamentalist and non oil company backed people. And I know the houtis are not them. Yet I don't see how the houtis, in Saudi eyes, can be more dangerous than Isis even to the house of said. Thanks!
I want to see you and "yea, right" in an internet Godwin argument. The fact of the matter is the Ukraine is not the next Nazi Germany and they are not Nazis. To say otherwise is to ignore history and current events.
I cant figure out if you cant read or you cant count.
But go ahead and pretend that "According to news reports, Washington has decided to arm Ukraine for renewed military assault on Russian ethnics in Donetsk and Luhansk." is the same as "pushing for renewed ethnic cleansing". Nevermind the fact that I cant find any source telling me that we are arming Ukraine. And certainly with nothing to commit ethnic cleansing. Pure hype.
"pushing for renewed ethnic cleansing"
Cut the BS. Ukraine is not nazi Germany part II. The Godwin law basically states that when your argument resorts to the ad hominum of "your side is the nazi Germany side" then you lose the intellectual debate. The Russia meme of calling the opposition 'Nazi's' rings very hollow.
Awesome. When you have a 17th philosophy that shuns the 21th it has consequences. Modern western armies have learned the hard way that air power can be decisive. Once the guerilla army became the occupying force its changes it dynamics completely. It now must have a static army and long supply lines. The same weakness that the US had during its occupation. The same weakness that ISIS et al took advantage of before the US left. Pity the army that does not have some ability to protect itself from air attack. Unless its ISIS then they get what they deserve.
So will they then have an IS version of Leman Brothers? Will slick IS real estate merchants go walking around saying "Its a new market...prices will only go up! Real Estate is an investment!"
Will the IS become to big to fail?
Looking for a "like" button.
"it seems that the two countries’ scientists are getting on fine: the number of collaborative papers between them rose almost fivefold from 388 to 1831 over the same period.”
Imagine if these were the newspaper headlines people read everyday.
This is my thought as well. ISIS has tactics but no strategy (besides bleeding US dry..that one is kinda working). I just wanted to post this so I can be the second one to say "called it".