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Total number of comments: 3 (since 2013-11-28 16:54:02)

Detlef

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  • Over 9,000 Murders by Gun in US; 39 in UK
    • b) want to avoid murdering anyone

    • Just to mention it.

      The "most of those murders are either “business” related or friends and family" seems also true in Europe.

      In Germany 2009:
      (See my comment above about the German Federal Crime Statistics.)
      Percentage of suspects in completed murder and manslaughter cases:
      43.9% a family member
      22.7% a family / business friend
      9.2% an acquaintance

      Don´t know about the exact percentages in the USA but roughly 75% seems to be a majority / "most" of the suspects in Germany too. :)

      My own personal guess is that murder in Germany - especially when using a firearm - is still pretty rare compared to the USA. So any such case gets a lot of attention by the German police. Which results in a clearance rate of 94-98% depending on the year.
      Which means that if you are a criminal you
      a) want to avoid using a firearm and
      b) want to murdering anyone.
      Simply because you know that doing a) or b) or both will result in a lot of attention by German law enforcement agencies and your chances - if you stay in Germany - aren´t that great.

    • Not that complicated for the USA.
      Search-->FBI-->Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR)

      Murder victims by weapon:
      Number of murder victims 2009: 13,636
      Total firearms: 9,146

      In comparison Germany 2009:
      Search-->BKA-->Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik 2009
      (German Federal Crime Statistics)
      It´s only in German though.
      Number of murder and murder attempts: 703
      Percentage of attempts: 57,5%
      Use of firearms in all cases: 11.8%
      Number of completed murders (victims): 299 (703*0.425)
      If I assume that every use of a
      firearm resulted in a completed murder: 83 (703*0.118)

      Which probably is a bit too high. It´s unlikely that every use of a firearm results in a dead victim. But since the statistic doesn´t give a more detailed number, I´m using the worst case scenario here.

      I noticed that the UCR also included "nonnegligent manslaughter" in their murder victims number.
      So to be fair - since I don´t know if and how Germany classifies manslaughter victims differently - I also looked at the German manslaughter numbers.
      (Note: The same might be true for the UK. So the number "39" might be a bit higher if some manslaughter victims are added.)

      Manslaughter cases in Germany 2009: 1,574
      Percentage of attempts: 79.1%
      Use of firearms: 5.8%
      Number of completed manslaughters: 329 (1,574*0.209)
      If I assume that every use of a firearm
      resulted in a completed manslaughter: 92 (1,574*0.058)

      In a worst case scenario that would lead to 92 additional victims due to use of a firearm. 329 manslaughter victims overall. If I assume that any use of a firearm results in a dead victim AND if I assume that every one of these cases would be classified as "nonnegligent manslaughter" in the USA. Both of which seems unlikely.

      So in a worst case scenario Germany would have:
      299 murder victims + 329 manslaughter victims = 628 victims
      with
      83 murder victims + 92 manslaughter victims = 175 victims
      due to firearms.

      Looking at the CIA Factbook the USA has roughly 4 times the population of Germany. In reality it´s a bit less though.
      Population of Germany around 82 million (stagnant). Population of the USA around 311 million now. Probably around 307 million in 2009.

      Which would mean less than 2,520 murder victims. And less than 700 of them dead by firearms.

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