There are a number of assumptions being made here.
1. That deprived of its heavy weapons the regime will just collapse.
2. That air strikes will strike so much terror into Gaddafi supporters that they abandon him.
3. That Gaddafi really has no support in Libya. Its just his heavy weapons keeping him in power.
I don't think any of these assumptions necessarily hold water. First even without heavy weapons the regime can still defeat the rebels. It will just be a much bloodier and protracted fight. Or it may end up in a stalemate and years of warfare/massacres ahead.
Then there is the shock and awe of the airstrikes on Gaddafis supporters. We all saw how well shock and awe worked in Iraq. Even after Saddam fell the Iraqis kept fighting. In the end it was the US which was shocked and awed.
Finally, would this still be going on if Gaddafi lacked any significant support in Libya? Heavy weapons don't fight on their own! And do the rebels have the kind of support being claimed for them?
I grew up in one of these dictatorial African countries. Even though I was in the streets a few times battling the governments' goons and saw my friends beaten and bloodied and some were arrested and had unbelievable things done to them. I never would have supported a foreign intervention to remove the government and certainly not one by the former imperial powers.
I wonder how many Libyans who oppose the government of Gaddafi are even more opposed to foreigners bombing their country?
I'm sorry to say this but this piece turned my gut!
There is a difference between the police in a neighborhood and the US as world policeman. The police in the former case have legitimacy! The US/Police is an illegitimate corrupt police force that promotes drug dealing in the neighborhood and infact until a month ago was quite happy to let this particular drug dealer peddle his wares in that neighborhood so long as he funneled some of the proceeds to them.
The African Union, the BRIC countries and close to half of the Arab league and Turkey all opposed military action in Libya. Thats most of humanity. Make no mistake this is a western intervention.
The greatest threat to the Arab Spring is not Libya suppressing its popular revolt, its the endurance of despotic regimes in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen etc The connivance of the west in enabling these regimes is open for all to see.
THe Libyan revolution is now fatally tainted. Even if the west slaughters Gaddafi and his family and installs the rebels in his place, the revolution will neither produce democracy nor sovereignty. This for the simple reason that, Western interests and democracy/sovereignty in the middle east are diametrically opposed. It is not for nothing that the west has supported dictatorships in the middle east for decades, it will not permit democracy there.
Now we hear that there will be CIA boots on the ground (if not already). Brought to power by the CIA how on earth will the leaders of the rebels ever prove that they are not secretly beholden to the CIA?
But then again, brought to power by the CIA, the rebels will in fact be beholden to the CIA.
Anybody remember Bush I and his "humanitarian" intervention in Somalia? This effort in Libya looks like it will end badly. As a progressive it saddens me to see that imperialism is so deeply embedded in the American being as to be inevitable regardless the party in power.
In the end everything that Obama claims to seek in Libya will turn to ashes for a number of reasons:
1. Hypocrisy: The Arab world will not suddenly fall in love with the US given the sheer hypocrisy the US is displaying. Where is the intervention in Yemen? Where Saleh is shooting his own people or Saudi Arabia and the Al-Khalifas shooting innocent civilians in Bahrain. How about Palestine, where Israel continues to shoot civilians at a steady clip. Any no fly zones for them?
2. The Nuclear Example: Libya gave up its nascent nuclear weapons program and established diplomatic relations with the west. Now the same west is bombing it. Any Arab or Persian nations want to learn from experience here? I think we weill see a lot more interest in nuclear weapons from Arab nations in future.
3. Its all about oil. As Robert Fisk once said about Iraq, if its major export was asparagus the US military would not be there. Same for Libya.
4. Its also about money and water. Now European countries are giving the rebels access to Libyan funds held in Europe. Now we hear the rebels can sell oil. So Libyans without being asked will end up funding the western intervention in their own country. Do the rebels really have that much legitimacy in Libya? And then there is the water. Libya sits on a massive aquifer. This may be just as valuable as oil. Who ends up controlling it? I bet a bunch of French companies!
5. Legitimacy: How legitimate are the rebels. Do they speek for all Libya or just for their own tribes? Its not clear. And so its not clear that they can in fact win and hold Libya. Western air strikes or no.
The majority of Libya's population is in the west, will they welcome these rebels from the east? If Gaddafi is so unpopular why do we not have an uprising in the west yet? Why is the US frustrating African Union efforts at mediation if regime change is not the goal?
I feel we are being sold a bill of goods once again, just like in 2003 with Iraq and in the final this is war on behalf of the same interests as in that earlier story.
In the end US and western global dominance is in steep decline and the greedy desperate, brown nosing of history that this latest intervention represents will do nothing but accelerate that decline.
Oops!! forgot to add a link. The above comment may make more sense if you read the following:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/bahrains-secret-terror-2270675.html
emk
Bahrain's secret terror.
Seems the luckless civilians of Bahrain are being secretly, massacred and genocided. No UN resolution for them.
Whats the exchange rate between Bahraini civilians and Libyan civilians?
A Bahraini civilian might be worth a half a Libyan, maybe, but I doubt it!
emk
There are a number of assumptions being made here.
1. That deprived of its heavy weapons the regime will just collapse.
2. That air strikes will strike so much terror into Gaddafi supporters that they abandon him.
3. That Gaddafi really has no support in Libya. Its just his heavy weapons keeping him in power.
I don't think any of these assumptions necessarily hold water. First even without heavy weapons the regime can still defeat the rebels. It will just be a much bloodier and protracted fight. Or it may end up in a stalemate and years of warfare/massacres ahead.
Then there is the shock and awe of the airstrikes on Gaddafis supporters. We all saw how well shock and awe worked in Iraq. Even after Saddam fell the Iraqis kept fighting. In the end it was the US which was shocked and awed.
Finally, would this still be going on if Gaddafi lacked any significant support in Libya? Heavy weapons don't fight on their own! And do the rebels have the kind of support being claimed for them?
I grew up in one of these dictatorial African countries. Even though I was in the streets a few times battling the governments' goons and saw my friends beaten and bloodied and some were arrested and had unbelievable things done to them. I never would have supported a foreign intervention to remove the government and certainly not one by the former imperial powers.
I wonder how many Libyans who oppose the government of Gaddafi are even more opposed to foreigners bombing their country?
I would bet there are quite a few.
emk
I'm sorry to say this but this piece turned my gut!
There is a difference between the police in a neighborhood and the US as world policeman. The police in the former case have legitimacy! The US/Police is an illegitimate corrupt police force that promotes drug dealing in the neighborhood and infact until a month ago was quite happy to let this particular drug dealer peddle his wares in that neighborhood so long as he funneled some of the proceeds to them.
The African Union, the BRIC countries and close to half of the Arab league and Turkey all opposed military action in Libya. Thats most of humanity. Make no mistake this is a western intervention.
The greatest threat to the Arab Spring is not Libya suppressing its popular revolt, its the endurance of despotic regimes in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen etc The connivance of the west in enabling these regimes is open for all to see.
THe Libyan revolution is now fatally tainted. Even if the west slaughters Gaddafi and his family and installs the rebels in his place, the revolution will neither produce democracy nor sovereignty. This for the simple reason that, Western interests and democracy/sovereignty in the middle east are diametrically opposed. It is not for nothing that the west has supported dictatorships in the middle east for decades, it will not permit democracy there.
Now we hear that there will be CIA boots on the ground (if not already). Brought to power by the CIA how on earth will the leaders of the rebels ever prove that they are not secretly beholden to the CIA?
But then again, brought to power by the CIA, the rebels will in fact be beholden to the CIA.
You dance with them that brought you!
emk
Anybody remember Bush I and his "humanitarian" intervention in Somalia? This effort in Libya looks like it will end badly. As a progressive it saddens me to see that imperialism is so deeply embedded in the American being as to be inevitable regardless the party in power.
In the end everything that Obama claims to seek in Libya will turn to ashes for a number of reasons:
1. Hypocrisy: The Arab world will not suddenly fall in love with the US given the sheer hypocrisy the US is displaying. Where is the intervention in Yemen? Where Saleh is shooting his own people or Saudi Arabia and the Al-Khalifas shooting innocent civilians in Bahrain. How about Palestine, where Israel continues to shoot civilians at a steady clip. Any no fly zones for them?
2. The Nuclear Example: Libya gave up its nascent nuclear weapons program and established diplomatic relations with the west. Now the same west is bombing it. Any Arab or Persian nations want to learn from experience here? I think we weill see a lot more interest in nuclear weapons from Arab nations in future.
3. Its all about oil. As Robert Fisk once said about Iraq, if its major export was asparagus the US military would not be there. Same for Libya.
4. Its also about money and water. Now European countries are giving the rebels access to Libyan funds held in Europe. Now we hear the rebels can sell oil. So Libyans without being asked will end up funding the western intervention in their own country. Do the rebels really have that much legitimacy in Libya? And then there is the water. Libya sits on a massive aquifer. This may be just as valuable as oil. Who ends up controlling it? I bet a bunch of French companies!
5. Legitimacy: How legitimate are the rebels. Do they speek for all Libya or just for their own tribes? Its not clear. And so its not clear that they can in fact win and hold Libya. Western air strikes or no.
The majority of Libya's population is in the west, will they welcome these rebels from the east? If Gaddafi is so unpopular why do we not have an uprising in the west yet? Why is the US frustrating African Union efforts at mediation if regime change is not the goal?
I feel we are being sold a bill of goods once again, just like in 2003 with Iraq and in the final this is war on behalf of the same interests as in that earlier story.
In the end US and western global dominance is in steep decline and the greedy desperate, brown nosing of history that this latest intervention represents will do nothing but accelerate that decline.
emk