I have no problem in principle with the Kurds setting up their own government in majority Kurd regions. I supported the right of the people in Crimea to succeed from Ukraine after the coup there installed an obnoxious government.
It will be interesting to see how many of the people that preached about the sacredness of national borders in the case of Crimea, take a position in favor of the Kurds separating from Syria. They can argue that the Syrian government is so obnoxious that it justifies succession. But that is in concept at least the reason why Crimea left Ukraine.
They could argue that Russia interfered in the Crimea situation, but obviously the US is interfering in the Kurd situation.
It turns out that sacred principles are very dependent on circumstances. But we have all known that for years.
This is a good reason why the US 30 year subversion campaign against the Iranian regime is immoral. It has consequences such as this. Propaganda has consequences.
The existence of the subversion campaign is undeniable. It predictably results in strengthening hard liners as a defense mechanism and discredits "moderates".
But hey, it is not as immoral as war, which destroys infrastructure and kills large numbers of people, in addition to negatively disrupting the emotional health of children subjected to the horrors of war. See Libya and Syria. And it isn't as immoral as blockades and sanctions the lead to malnurishment (stunting mental development of children), and block medical supplies, see Iraq in the 1990s or Yemen today.
Think of it from the Iranian perspective. What do they think when they see the immoral genocide currently occurring in Yemen? Can you blame them for being paranoid? Wouldn't you be?
I found this statement to be somewhat misleading "The essence of what sparks these crises is not Erdogan himself, as many believe, but the growing influence of the Islamic and popular trend in Turkey, which rejects Israeli policies in occupied Palestine. "
Isn't a big part of the essence that Israel has a radical right wing government? Isn't another big part that after 50 years of occupation, most people recognize that the peace process has always been a sham?
Yes, internal Turkish attitudes matter. But so do internal Israeli attitudes.
It is difficult for the average US citizen to interpret events such as this. We know that the US has waged a campaign of subversion against the Iranian state for decades, spending large sums of money. We know Israel has an obsession with undermining the Iranian regime, as does Saudi Arabia. Both have well resourced intelligence agencies. The US has allies like the British that also routinely conduct covert activities.
So while it is very plausible that substantial discontent exists within the Iranian population concerning economic conditions, it is also undeniable that various well resourced foreign intelligence agencies are attempting to exploit the situation. There have been recent plausible reports of the US and Israel reaching agreements on an expanded covert regime change campaign. Timing seems to match those reports.
This raises the concern that the legitimate opposition in Iran (whatever its size), will be delegitimized as useful idiots of the US and its allies.
One concern, reports that the demonstrations "rose spontaneously as a result of social media activities." That is right out of the color revolution playbook, and the collusion of facebook and google with the intelligence agencies is widely suspected.
The intercept published a copy of a US dirty tricks manual for interfering in the politics of foreign countries. Character assassination, honey traps, etc were listed as tactics.
While it is impossible for the average intelligent US citizen to discover the truth, since deception and deflection are key competencies of intelligence agencies, this article seems to be hopelessly naïve. All covert intelligence operations have cover stories, yet this author seems to believe the US limits itself to noble "democracy promotion" based on the official cover stories. It is a crime for a whistleblower to reveal the truth in the US (just as it is in other countries). So it is silly to just buy the official US cover stories, as this author does. Of course it is also silly to buy the official Russian cover stories.
What is a citizen to do? I have no useful advice. Such is life.
Representatives of the USG have stated "Assad must go" to many times to count. The US desire for regime change is documented over a span of at least a decade if not further. The various USG connected think tanks have issued many "white papers" setting forth destabilization and partition plans. Trump and his administration insiders are totally obsessed with Iran. The hatred is palpable.
Given those facts, assuming this move is not some sort of plan to advance regime change is really naive.
Moreover, if in fact the intel does not support the claim, it is extremely immoral. The opposition, including ISIS, are clearly losing on the ground. Staging an incident to provoke a large US attack on government forces is their only hope for deposing Assad. Saudi Arabia and UAE hate Assad even more than Trump. They are currently engaging in genocide in Yemen. They are clearly capable of staging a false flag operation, and only a complete idiot would think they would not do so for moral reasons. A false claim such as this can only be seen as an invitation to stage a false flag event. Assad is an official US propaganda target. Our "media" would merrily go along while cheering enthusiastically.
Yes, the Kurds can carve out their own enclave without a false flag attack, and I don't think they have any real incentive to do so. But would that really satisfy the regime change advocates? I doubt if the Kurds are really interested in holding on to Sunni areas anyway. Does the USG really trust the Kurds not to cut a deal with Assad?
Wars are always tragic. That is why they should be avoided if at all possible. That is why war mongers are such detestible creeps. There are always many innocents killed.
The US policy of pumping arms into Syria and Libya contributed to this tragedy. The lack of substantive public debate before implementing this policy is even more discouraging. Covert operations to over throw governments bypass safeguards and make it easier to slide into brutal endless wars - That is another root cause of this failure.
Thank you Juan. You are one of the few to even mention the possibility of class warfare in the media (I know you are just a blogger, but we have to take what we can get in America).
The control of the media by the powerful/wealthy is so airtight in the US that class warfare is very rarely even mentioned in the media. And when it is mentioned it is usually to deny it's existence.
If you look objectively at the evidence the situation appears to be as follows: Republicans get elected and engage in fierce class warfare against 90 percent of the population. Public resistance increases over a period of about 8 years and a Democrat is elected to tamp down dissent by giving out a few crumbs to the public. Then after the political situation has stabilized, the republicans are brought back in to continue the class warfare. It is all about managing public behavior while advancing class warfare objectives.
The Syrians and the Russians claim they have established humanitarian corridors for civilians to leave east Aleppo.
I think you would agree that under the circumstances, any rational civilians would leave if they could. Particularly those with children.
What in your view Juan is stopping the civilians from leaving? The Syrian side suggests that the "moderate rebels" are preventing people from leaving. If so they are monsters. I assume the rebels claim the Syrian army is preventing civilians from leaving. Which is it?
Also, any legitimate NGO concerned about human rights would be calling (very loudly) for the civilians to leave east Aleppo if they can. I haven't heard any such calls. Also, shouldn't the USG government be urging the same thing?
Gaddafi said virtually the same thing about Libya. Was that "shrill" uncalled for language.
Of course the fall of Assad would empower radical Sunni's. Where do you expect all these militants to go after Assad falls? But that raises a serious question Juan, what in your view would happen in a "post-Assad" Iraq? I see to major problems. First, the radicals would come to power. Second, the members of the Assad army and Assad's other associates would be extremely bitter about losing their status and would organize much as the Sunni's in Iraq did. Leading to year's of conflict. In other words, Juan, where exactly do you think they would do?
At this point, the obvious conclusion is that decades of conflict were the plan. The only other alternative is complete and totally stunning incompetence, which isn't likely given the USG's vast experience in destabilizing "non-complient" regimes.
PS: the idea that we are in Syria for humanitarian reasons is absurd. Just like the suggestion that our vassal states in the Gulf are funding the militants because they support democracy. The Saudi royal family detests democracy with every fiber of their being.
I also agree with another poster, the "shrillness" of the statement quoted above is four or five levels below the shrillness of the language used by Samantha Power.
Juan, a question. I have been trying to get a handle on what percentage of the Syrian population lives in the following categories to see if the non-Kurd, Non-Dash opposition has any real weight on the ground.
I guess the categories would be: (1) Syrian Government controlled territory, (2) Kurdish controlled; (3) Dash controlled; and (3) other opposition (including whatever Al Nusra is calling itself today.
My impression is the non-Kurd opposition that is acceptable to the USG holds a relatively low percentage of the population (maybe as low as 10 percent). I would appreciate your view as this would seem to be a key factor in any peace negotiations.
Reminds me of all the frumping about the thousands of Russian troops in Donbass and the repeated claims (ad naseum) in the western press about how Russia was lying about it.
Somehow these ruskies were all over the place and it was so painfully obvious as to be unquestionable. According to the US media, these were organized Russian combat units that were everywhere. It was amazing how this was accomplished with OSCE observers on site, and no photos.
The US media which was so willing to gullibly accept all claims about ruskie troops to the point of loading its stories with sarcasm, now accepts with devotion the strained explanations of the USG in Syria.
I assume the Russians had some military personnel in Ukraine. After all, it shares a long border and the population of Donbass is largely ethnic Russians, and Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union for decades, with many many cultural and economic ties. But the claims of large organized units in the US media were simply not credible.
Syria is thousands of miles from the USA, and a large percentage of Americans are openly hostile to "towel heads". Yet the media acts like is just natural and the USA has troops there, while those dam evil Ruskies, how dare they intervene on their own doorstep.
What is needed is a US truth commission that exposes the activities of its intelligence agencies in manipulating/controlling the governments of other countries, including staging color revolutions.
It is sad that the post Watergate Church commission is that last semi credible effort along those lines. That was about 40 years ago. How do you claim to be a democracy when the last significant transparency effort was 40 years ago?
I suspect that the distinction between "moderate opposition" and hard core Islamic terrorist is to a substantial degree just a propaganda con. When Assad is to be demonized, he is killing moderates. When the opposition clearly kills civilian non-combatants - it is blamed on the terrorists, not the noble moderates.
Our government has hundreds if not thousands of people who make their careers in military "perception management" It makes you wonder - are these people just totally ineffective boobs, or are they influencing the media narrative? Given the empirical evidence from other conflicts, clearly the media narrative is being influenced at least by some degree by the "perception management" efforts of the USG. But this is never discussed in the western media.
The USG has stressed over and over again its desire for regime change in Syria, and leaked documents make it clear that regime change has been a USG goal since at least 2006.
Juan, you follow this closely, what is your sense of the degree to which US media reporting is influenced by the USG perception management efforts.
The Syrian opposition showed their true character when they went to Saudi Arabia to organize their Geneva delegation. Since when do moderate democracy lovers align themselves with brutal dictatorships like Saudi Arabia?
The Saudi's hate democracy with every fiber of their bodies. Democracy is by far the biggest treat to the extended kleptocracy that runs/loots Saudi Arabia. The Saudi's do not want a Syria that serves as a good example of the good that democracy can do. The contrast to their current dictatorship would only cause trouble for them.
Just curious Juan, how the $5 billion this cousin of Assad had compares with the amounts invested in the off shore tax havens by relatives of the Saudi royal family?
Have the politically connected Saudi's done anything more to deserve their money than the politically connected Syrians? What does this tell us about corruption in Saudi Arabia?
Or is corruption on a huge scale more forgivable when the Saudi's do it?
The Kleptocracy in Egypt controls the economy. They were threatened by democracy, so they "made the economy scream" (USG terminology) to drive the population to support a brutal authoritarian government.
These tactics have been used for centuries. They are straight out the colonial playbook.
The Saudi's and Israeli's are terrified of democracy breaking out in the middle east. They supported their natural allies, the Kleptocrats, in killing democracy in Egypt.
Essentially, the technocrats in Egypt are a collaborator class, that found itself terrified by the prospect of actual democracy. What they want is pseudo democracy straight out of the neo-colonial playbook. When they found they couldn't have that, they went back to supporting dictatorship.
With $30/barrel oil and global warming many people will be seeking to leave Iraq. Hard to see how the country's economy is remotely viable with low oil prices and droughts.
A quick google search reveals HRW also confirmed the use of cluster bombs in Yemen in August.
One thing I found interesting is the lack of US mainstream reporting on the recent HRW report. How do you explain why civilian deaths in Syria are trumpted by the US media but while the use of cluster bombs against civilians by our ally (and US made cluster bombs to boot) is "not news".
I will close with a question - should the US sanction the Saudi's for their repeated bombing of civilians in Yemen? If not why not?
Juan you argue that it was the violent response of the Syrian regime that turned many of the fighters in Syria to ISIL/Al Nusura. That doesn't ring true. If that were the case, ISIL would be largely a Syrian situation. Yet it is also in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Afganistan, etc. Also, approximately 30 percent of its fighters in Syria are reportedly foreigners. It is also true that a number of the Syrian's fighting for ISIL are basically conscripts.
During the period, 2009 to 2011 an unbelievable string of barbaric terrorists attacks occurred in Iraq. Multiple large suicide bombings every week. Terrorism campaigns at that level can not happened without state sponsorship. In my opinion, the Saudi's were up to their necks in that campaign.
One of the features of the activities of state "intelligence" organizations, is that they are experts in covering their tracks. But the key question is "who benefits"? The Syrian and Iraqi governments are allied with Iran. So the first place to look for state sponsors of terrorism in Syria and Iraq are the people that want to over throw the Iranian regime.
The pattern of media concentration in corporate hands is repeated throughout the Western world and is especially found in the West's neo-colonies. It is part of the basic game plan of crony capitalism. It is extremely naïve to think that common citizens can change this.
Research shows that the wealthy class has one over riding allegiance - undying loyalty to their class. Even when proposed progressive legislation promotes the interests of their industry and makes sense - many in the upper class will oppose. In other words, their allegiance is more to class interests than industry interests.
Issuing a tourist advisory in response to Turkey's dangerously aggressive action is a very mild response. Surprised to see it hyped as ominous.
The Russian bomber posed absolutely zero threat to Turkey even if it was in Turkey's airspace for 17 seconds as claimed by Turkey. What more reasonable response would you recommend? It is hard to get less reactionary than a tourist advisory.
This recent article adds more details. I had forgotten Zib's open admission that the USG created Al Quida in a successful attempt to dupe Russia into invading Afganistan. He brags about it openly. Also, a former French FM has stated he was told of the plan to use sunni terrorists to topple Assad in 2009 - two years before the Arab Spring.
The middle east has seen hundreds, if not a thousand, terrorist attacks over the past 5 years. It is clear that the people behind this attack were professionals. The suggestion that they miscalculated the response to the attack is not plausible. They are experts in predicting the response to terrorists attacks as result of their vast experience in this area.
(forgot to put this in my prior post, please forgive me for posting twice).
The Saudi's are openly using mercenaries in Yemen (come on does anyone believe the fighters from Sudan are anything but mercenaries?)
One has to suspect that many Dash fighters are also just mercenaries hired by Gulf countries. There have certainly been many claims out of Syria, Iraq and Iran of mercenaries fighting for Dash in Syria and Iraq. Yes those sources have an incentive to say that - but on the other hand, who has better knowledge of the situation on the ground than Syria, Iraq and Iran? Turkey? the Saudi's? But wait, don't they also have glaring incentives to say they are not mercenaries?
Agree, the idea that the Saudi's are in Syria to support democracy is the absurd on stilts. The Saudi's detest democracy with every fiber of their being.
For many years I thought the Israeli lobby was preventing the US from acting responsibly. But I had a nagging doubt because Noam Chomsky steadfastly argued that Israel was a US vassal state and it was wrong to believe Israel was the tail wagging the US dog. Over time I have come to believe that Chomsky was right. What we are seeing is a classic good cop bad cop routine. Israel is positioned as the bad cop that forces us to do bad things. According to the propaganda, dog gone it, we would like to do the right thing but that dang Israel lobby prevents that. It is just a classic con.
Saudi Arabia is also a US vassal state. The brutal dictatorship running Saudi Arabia is totally dependent on the US for its survival. I suspect the Saudi's are just doing what the US wants them to do. Another good cop, bad cop routine.
The real question is why does the US want to stoke constant conflict and sectarian violence in the Mideast? Some would say embattled regimes under the treat of terrorists are easy to control? Personally, I don't see how having easily controlled vassal states justifies the human costs. But the good cop, bad cop routines are starting to become blatant.
The US will not be satisfied with anything less than a vassal state in Syria. The US is not interested in a "pluralistic democracy". US support for Saudi Arabia proves that. The Saudi's detest democracy with every fiber of their being.
The US does not care about the welfare of the population of Syria - our response to the refugee crisis proves that.
What the US cares about is establishing a vassal state that will follow our dictates.
You refer to Hadi as Yemen's elected president. I have read he was the only candidate allowed to run - which explains how he got 98% of the vote. Under those circumstances, it is difficult to call him an "elected president". If I am wrong please correct me.
I have never understood why anyone things Iran would bomb Israel with a nuclear weapon. The fallout would drift right over the West Bank. So if Iran hates Israel for its occupation of the West Bank, why does it make sense for them to kill most of the Arabs living on the West Bank?
It is interesting how Mexican workers entering the US without work permits are consistently called "illegals" in the media -- but the Israelis entering the west bank in contradiction to well established international law are never referred to as illegals in the western media.
It is sad that all that this article can muster up to describe these illegals is describing them as "communities, considered illegal by the UN."
Egypt is a fascist kleptocracy. The judges are part of the collaborator class that is paid to protect the interests of the kleptocracy. As paid collaborators, they lie constantly. Since when have collaborators cared about integrity? It is all about money and status.
Sounds like the US/Saudi plan is to set up an army of mercenaries with little popular support to defeat ISIS and Assad at the same time, and then install a puppet government of collaborators. Even if they are able to accomplish that (which is implausible), that will leave embittered opponents in Syria who will launch a long term civil war against the new government.
The American people will be losers in this. The winners will be the Saudi dictatorship who will use the ongoing conflict as an excuse for repressive measures at home to keep their dictatorship in place.
The neocons will also delude themselves that they won because they will believe they harmed Iranian interests by replacing Assad and by opening space between the Iraq government and Iran. The neocon approach is to attack any country that maintains any semblance of independence to discourage other countries from being disobedient. It is the equivalent of the old mafia protection racket. Go along with us - we would hate to seem something happen to that nice country of yours.
US wants to attack Iran to discourage other countries from entertaining the idea of joining a potential Russia/China/Iran coalition as an alternative to US sphere of influence.
Obama and Kerry could not resist the deep state that controls "our" government, even if they wanted to.
Juan, you make some unequivocal statements about public opinion in Egypt being very much anti-hamas. I am curious what your source is. I am sure the elites in Egypt who benefit from the current Kleptocracy that Sisi represents are very much anti Hamas, just as they are very much anti-democracy. But my understanding is measuring the public opinion of the bottom 70 percent of the public in Egypt is very difficult. Many are in fear that telling the truth could damage their careers or even land them in jail to be tortured. They are also constantly barraged by propaganda by the Egyptian media which is owned by the Kleptocracy. Under those circumstances, how can you be so sure of what they actually think? As opposed to what they are forced to say by the circumstances?
Why is anyone surprised? You are not doing you duty as a citizen if you have not read Noam Chomsky's book Manufacturing Consent.
Agree or disagree with him. That is you right. But you cannot claim to be an informed citizen if you just pretend important books such as Manufacturing Consent do not exist.
That particular book was published in 1987. The Vietnam War and the activities of the US in central America in the 1980s provide textbook illustrations of the propaganda methods used in the US media. They are easy to recognize after you do a little basic reading - and they repeat themselves constantly.
Not hard to figure out. The economic elite support the old corrupt system dominated by the military which provides them with enormous privileges. The elite want a propaganda campaign supporting Sisi. They also own the consumer goods companies. So they flood the market with pro-Sisi consumer goods and advertisements.
Pretending this is an organic "free market" response to consumer demand is part of the propaganda model.
In an atmosphere in which one's economic position (Sisi supportors control most large employers) and safety (less likely to be attacked if seen as loyal) can both be advanced by buying "kitchy" consumer crap -- it is no surprise that many buy the stuff.
These techniques were developed and refined during the colonal period by the British and others. Structural incentives are usually enough to recruit collaborators with the colonial power.
Force is used to discipline those who refuse to collaborate - and excessive forced is applied to them to provide a object lesson to any who may be tempted to refuse to collaborate. Non conformists must be made an example of.
They are all pretty simple and standard methods of control.
The extensive media campaign demonizing the Brotherhood is a more logical explanation.
Also, suppose one wants to advance in their careers - or avoid surviellance by the security state - in the current environment, isn't claiming to be secular the way to accomplish those goals?
I have no problem in principle with the Kurds setting up their own government in majority Kurd regions. I supported the right of the people in Crimea to succeed from Ukraine after the coup there installed an obnoxious government.
It will be interesting to see how many of the people that preached about the sacredness of national borders in the case of Crimea, take a position in favor of the Kurds separating from Syria. They can argue that the Syrian government is so obnoxious that it justifies succession. But that is in concept at least the reason why Crimea left Ukraine.
They could argue that Russia interfered in the Crimea situation, but obviously the US is interfering in the Kurd situation.
It turns out that sacred principles are very dependent on circumstances. But we have all known that for years.
This is a good reason why the US 30 year subversion campaign against the Iranian regime is immoral. It has consequences such as this. Propaganda has consequences.
The existence of the subversion campaign is undeniable. It predictably results in strengthening hard liners as a defense mechanism and discredits "moderates".
But hey, it is not as immoral as war, which destroys infrastructure and kills large numbers of people, in addition to negatively disrupting the emotional health of children subjected to the horrors of war. See Libya and Syria. And it isn't as immoral as blockades and sanctions the lead to malnurishment (stunting mental development of children), and block medical supplies, see Iraq in the 1990s or Yemen today.
Think of it from the Iranian perspective. What do they think when they see the immoral genocide currently occurring in Yemen? Can you blame them for being paranoid? Wouldn't you be?
I found this statement to be somewhat misleading "The essence of what sparks these crises is not Erdogan himself, as many believe, but the growing influence of the Islamic and popular trend in Turkey, which rejects Israeli policies in occupied Palestine. "
Isn't a big part of the essence that Israel has a radical right wing government? Isn't another big part that after 50 years of occupation, most people recognize that the peace process has always been a sham?
Yes, internal Turkish attitudes matter. But so do internal Israeli attitudes.
It is difficult for the average US citizen to interpret events such as this. We know that the US has waged a campaign of subversion against the Iranian state for decades, spending large sums of money. We know Israel has an obsession with undermining the Iranian regime, as does Saudi Arabia. Both have well resourced intelligence agencies. The US has allies like the British that also routinely conduct covert activities.
So while it is very plausible that substantial discontent exists within the Iranian population concerning economic conditions, it is also undeniable that various well resourced foreign intelligence agencies are attempting to exploit the situation. There have been recent plausible reports of the US and Israel reaching agreements on an expanded covert regime change campaign. Timing seems to match those reports.
This raises the concern that the legitimate opposition in Iran (whatever its size), will be delegitimized as useful idiots of the US and its allies.
One concern, reports that the demonstrations "rose spontaneously as a result of social media activities." That is right out of the color revolution playbook, and the collusion of facebook and google with the intelligence agencies is widely suspected.
The intercept published a copy of a US dirty tricks manual for interfering in the politics of foreign countries. Character assassination, honey traps, etc were listed as tactics.
While it is impossible for the average intelligent US citizen to discover the truth, since deception and deflection are key competencies of intelligence agencies, this article seems to be hopelessly naïve. All covert intelligence operations have cover stories, yet this author seems to believe the US limits itself to noble "democracy promotion" based on the official cover stories. It is a crime for a whistleblower to reveal the truth in the US (just as it is in other countries). So it is silly to just buy the official US cover stories, as this author does. Of course it is also silly to buy the official Russian cover stories.
What is a citizen to do? I have no useful advice. Such is life.
Representatives of the USG have stated "Assad must go" to many times to count. The US desire for regime change is documented over a span of at least a decade if not further. The various USG connected think tanks have issued many "white papers" setting forth destabilization and partition plans. Trump and his administration insiders are totally obsessed with Iran. The hatred is palpable.
Given those facts, assuming this move is not some sort of plan to advance regime change is really naive.
Moreover, if in fact the intel does not support the claim, it is extremely immoral. The opposition, including ISIS, are clearly losing on the ground. Staging an incident to provoke a large US attack on government forces is their only hope for deposing Assad. Saudi Arabia and UAE hate Assad even more than Trump. They are currently engaging in genocide in Yemen. They are clearly capable of staging a false flag operation, and only a complete idiot would think they would not do so for moral reasons. A false claim such as this can only be seen as an invitation to stage a false flag event. Assad is an official US propaganda target. Our "media" would merrily go along while cheering enthusiastically.
Yes, the Kurds can carve out their own enclave without a false flag attack, and I don't think they have any real incentive to do so. But would that really satisfy the regime change advocates? I doubt if the Kurds are really interested in holding on to Sunni areas anyway. Does the USG really trust the Kurds not to cut a deal with Assad?
Wars are always tragic. That is why they should be avoided if at all possible. That is why war mongers are such detestible creeps. There are always many innocents killed.
The US policy of pumping arms into Syria and Libya contributed to this tragedy. The lack of substantive public debate before implementing this policy is even more discouraging. Covert operations to over throw governments bypass safeguards and make it easier to slide into brutal endless wars - That is another root cause of this failure.
Don't these Houthis understand that Saudi Arabia is bombing them to establish democracy? (Sarcasm alert)
Thank you Juan. You are one of the few to even mention the possibility of class warfare in the media (I know you are just a blogger, but we have to take what we can get in America).
The control of the media by the powerful/wealthy is so airtight in the US that class warfare is very rarely even mentioned in the media. And when it is mentioned it is usually to deny it's existence.
If you look objectively at the evidence the situation appears to be as follows: Republicans get elected and engage in fierce class warfare against 90 percent of the population. Public resistance increases over a period of about 8 years and a Democrat is elected to tamp down dissent by giving out a few crumbs to the public. Then after the political situation has stabilized, the republicans are brought back in to continue the class warfare. It is all about managing public behavior while advancing class warfare objectives.
The Dems are just playing their role.
The Syrians and the Russians claim they have established humanitarian corridors for civilians to leave east Aleppo.
I think you would agree that under the circumstances, any rational civilians would leave if they could. Particularly those with children.
What in your view Juan is stopping the civilians from leaving? The Syrian side suggests that the "moderate rebels" are preventing people from leaving. If so they are monsters. I assume the rebels claim the Syrian army is preventing civilians from leaving. Which is it?
Also, any legitimate NGO concerned about human rights would be calling (very loudly) for the civilians to leave east Aleppo if they can. I haven't heard any such calls. Also, shouldn't the USG government be urging the same thing?
Gaddafi said virtually the same thing about Libya. Was that "shrill" uncalled for language.
Of course the fall of Assad would empower radical Sunni's. Where do you expect all these militants to go after Assad falls? But that raises a serious question Juan, what in your view would happen in a "post-Assad" Iraq? I see to major problems. First, the radicals would come to power. Second, the members of the Assad army and Assad's other associates would be extremely bitter about losing their status and would organize much as the Sunni's in Iraq did. Leading to year's of conflict. In other words, Juan, where exactly do you think they would do?
At this point, the obvious conclusion is that decades of conflict were the plan. The only other alternative is complete and totally stunning incompetence, which isn't likely given the USG's vast experience in destabilizing "non-complient" regimes.
PS: the idea that we are in Syria for humanitarian reasons is absurd. Just like the suggestion that our vassal states in the Gulf are funding the militants because they support democracy. The Saudi royal family detests democracy with every fiber of their being.
I also agree with another poster, the "shrillness" of the statement quoted above is four or five levels below the shrillness of the language used by Samantha Power.
Juan, a question. I have been trying to get a handle on what percentage of the Syrian population lives in the following categories to see if the non-Kurd, Non-Dash opposition has any real weight on the ground.
I guess the categories would be: (1) Syrian Government controlled territory, (2) Kurdish controlled; (3) Dash controlled; and (3) other opposition (including whatever Al Nusra is calling itself today.
My impression is the non-Kurd opposition that is acceptable to the USG holds a relatively low percentage of the population (maybe as low as 10 percent). I would appreciate your view as this would seem to be a key factor in any peace negotiations.
UN was coerced into dropping Saudi's from list. "Several countries" threatened to cut UN funding if Saudi's were left on list.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-saudi-un-idUSKCN0YV1UQ?il=0
Reminds me of all the frumping about the thousands of Russian troops in Donbass and the repeated claims (ad naseum) in the western press about how Russia was lying about it.
Somehow these ruskies were all over the place and it was so painfully obvious as to be unquestionable. According to the US media, these were organized Russian combat units that were everywhere. It was amazing how this was accomplished with OSCE observers on site, and no photos.
The US media which was so willing to gullibly accept all claims about ruskie troops to the point of loading its stories with sarcasm, now accepts with devotion the strained explanations of the USG in Syria.
I assume the Russians had some military personnel in Ukraine. After all, it shares a long border and the population of Donbass is largely ethnic Russians, and Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union for decades, with many many cultural and economic ties. But the claims of large organized units in the US media were simply not credible.
Syria is thousands of miles from the USA, and a large percentage of Americans are openly hostile to "towel heads". Yet the media acts like is just natural and the USA has troops there, while those dam evil Ruskies, how dare they intervene on their own doorstep.
What is needed is a US truth commission that exposes the activities of its intelligence agencies in manipulating/controlling the governments of other countries, including staging color revolutions.
It is sad that the post Watergate Church commission is that last semi credible effort along those lines. That was about 40 years ago. How do you claim to be a democracy when the last significant transparency effort was 40 years ago?
I suspect that the distinction between "moderate opposition" and hard core Islamic terrorist is to a substantial degree just a propaganda con. When Assad is to be demonized, he is killing moderates. When the opposition clearly kills civilian non-combatants - it is blamed on the terrorists, not the noble moderates.
Our government has hundreds if not thousands of people who make their careers in military "perception management" It makes you wonder - are these people just totally ineffective boobs, or are they influencing the media narrative? Given the empirical evidence from other conflicts, clearly the media narrative is being influenced at least by some degree by the "perception management" efforts of the USG. But this is never discussed in the western media.
The USG has stressed over and over again its desire for regime change in Syria, and leaked documents make it clear that regime change has been a USG goal since at least 2006.
Juan, you follow this closely, what is your sense of the degree to which US media reporting is influenced by the USG perception management efforts.
The Syrian opposition showed their true character when they went to Saudi Arabia to organize their Geneva delegation. Since when do moderate democracy lovers align themselves with brutal dictatorships like Saudi Arabia?
The Saudi's hate democracy with every fiber of their bodies. Democracy is by far the biggest treat to the extended kleptocracy that runs/loots Saudi Arabia. The Saudi's do not want a Syria that serves as a good example of the good that democracy can do. The contrast to their current dictatorship would only cause trouble for them.
Just curious Juan, how the $5 billion this cousin of Assad had compares with the amounts invested in the off shore tax havens by relatives of the Saudi royal family?
Have the politically connected Saudi's done anything more to deserve their money than the politically connected Syrians? What does this tell us about corruption in Saudi Arabia?
Or is corruption on a huge scale more forgivable when the Saudi's do it?
The Kleptocracy in Egypt controls the economy. They were threatened by democracy, so they "made the economy scream" (USG terminology) to drive the population to support a brutal authoritarian government.
These tactics have been used for centuries. They are straight out the colonial playbook.
The Saudi's and Israeli's are terrified of democracy breaking out in the middle east. They supported their natural allies, the Kleptocrats, in killing democracy in Egypt.
Essentially, the technocrats in Egypt are a collaborator class, that found itself terrified by the prospect of actual democracy. What they want is pseudo democracy straight out of the neo-colonial playbook. When they found they couldn't have that, they went back to supporting dictatorship.
The last paragraph is funny. If we have learned anything from Vietnam on - The US does not do "reconstruction."
To the USG, what they call "reconstruction" is just organized looting.
With $30/barrel oil and global warming many people will be seeking to leave Iraq. Hard to see how the country's economy is remotely viable with low oil prices and droughts.
I didn't see any articles on Yemen from you recently so I picked out this one to ask you to comment on something.
Human Rights Watch again confirms that the Saudi's are using cluster bombs in urban civilian areas:
https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/01/07/yemen-coalition-drops-cluster-bombs-capital-0
A quick google search reveals HRW also confirmed the use of cluster bombs in Yemen in August.
One thing I found interesting is the lack of US mainstream reporting on the recent HRW report. How do you explain why civilian deaths in Syria are trumpted by the US media but while the use of cluster bombs against civilians by our ally (and US made cluster bombs to boot) is "not news".
I will close with a question - should the US sanction the Saudi's for their repeated bombing of civilians in Yemen? If not why not?
Juan you argue that it was the violent response of the Syrian regime that turned many of the fighters in Syria to ISIL/Al Nusura. That doesn't ring true. If that were the case, ISIL would be largely a Syrian situation. Yet it is also in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Afganistan, etc. Also, approximately 30 percent of its fighters in Syria are reportedly foreigners. It is also true that a number of the Syrian's fighting for ISIL are basically conscripts.
During the period, 2009 to 2011 an unbelievable string of barbaric terrorists attacks occurred in Iraq. Multiple large suicide bombings every week. Terrorism campaigns at that level can not happened without state sponsorship. In my opinion, the Saudi's were up to their necks in that campaign.
One of the features of the activities of state "intelligence" organizations, is that they are experts in covering their tracks. But the key question is "who benefits"? The Syrian and Iraqi governments are allied with Iran. So the first place to look for state sponsors of terrorism in Syria and Iraq are the people that want to over throw the Iranian regime.
The pattern of media concentration in corporate hands is repeated throughout the Western world and is especially found in the West's neo-colonies. It is part of the basic game plan of crony capitalism. It is extremely naïve to think that common citizens can change this.
Research shows that the wealthy class has one over riding allegiance - undying loyalty to their class. Even when proposed progressive legislation promotes the interests of their industry and makes sense - many in the upper class will oppose. In other words, their allegiance is more to class interests than industry interests.
Issuing a tourist advisory in response to Turkey's dangerously aggressive action is a very mild response. Surprised to see it hyped as ominous.
The Russian bomber posed absolutely zero threat to Turkey even if it was in Turkey's airspace for 17 seconds as claimed by Turkey. What more reasonable response would you recommend? It is hard to get less reactionary than a tourist advisory.
This recent article adds more details. I had forgotten Zib's open admission that the USG created Al Quida in a successful attempt to dupe Russia into invading Afganistan. He brags about it openly. Also, a former French FM has stated he was told of the plan to use sunni terrorists to topple Assad in 2009 - two years before the Arab Spring.
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/11/17/lost-on-the-dark-side-in-syria/
This 2007 article from Seymour Hersch is useful in understanding how we got to this.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
The middle east has seen hundreds, if not a thousand, terrorist attacks over the past 5 years. It is clear that the people behind this attack were professionals. The suggestion that they miscalculated the response to the attack is not plausible. They are experts in predicting the response to terrorists attacks as result of their vast experience in this area.
(forgot to put this in my prior post, please forgive me for posting twice).
The Saudi's are openly using mercenaries in Yemen (come on does anyone believe the fighters from Sudan are anything but mercenaries?)
One has to suspect that many Dash fighters are also just mercenaries hired by Gulf countries. There have certainly been many claims out of Syria, Iraq and Iran of mercenaries fighting for Dash in Syria and Iraq. Yes those sources have an incentive to say that - but on the other hand, who has better knowledge of the situation on the ground than Syria, Iraq and Iran? Turkey? the Saudi's? But wait, don't they also have glaring incentives to say they are not mercenaries?
Agree, the idea that the Saudi's are in Syria to support democracy is the absurd on stilts. The Saudi's detest democracy with every fiber of their being.
For many years I thought the Israeli lobby was preventing the US from acting responsibly. But I had a nagging doubt because Noam Chomsky steadfastly argued that Israel was a US vassal state and it was wrong to believe Israel was the tail wagging the US dog. Over time I have come to believe that Chomsky was right. What we are seeing is a classic good cop bad cop routine. Israel is positioned as the bad cop that forces us to do bad things. According to the propaganda, dog gone it, we would like to do the right thing but that dang Israel lobby prevents that. It is just a classic con.
Saudi Arabia is also a US vassal state. The brutal dictatorship running Saudi Arabia is totally dependent on the US for its survival. I suspect the Saudi's are just doing what the US wants them to do. Another good cop, bad cop routine.
The real question is why does the US want to stoke constant conflict and sectarian violence in the Mideast? Some would say embattled regimes under the treat of terrorists are easy to control? Personally, I don't see how having easily controlled vassal states justifies the human costs. But the good cop, bad cop routines are starting to become blatant.
The US will not be satisfied with anything less than a vassal state in Syria. The US is not interested in a "pluralistic democracy". US support for Saudi Arabia proves that. The Saudi's detest democracy with every fiber of their being.
The US does not care about the welfare of the population of Syria - our response to the refugee crisis proves that.
What the US cares about is establishing a vassal state that will follow our dictates.
You refer to Hadi as Yemen's elected president. I have read he was the only candidate allowed to run - which explains how he got 98% of the vote. Under those circumstances, it is difficult to call him an "elected president". If I am wrong please correct me.
I have never understood why anyone things Iran would bomb Israel with a nuclear weapon. The fallout would drift right over the West Bank. So if Iran hates Israel for its occupation of the West Bank, why does it make sense for them to kill most of the Arabs living on the West Bank?
Jordon is a staunch ally of the far right wing Israeli government. It is amusing to see Jordanian media ignore that fact.
The media is all a façade. Collaborators putting on a show for the masses. Exercises in population control.
Glen Greenwald says it really well in this piece.
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/01/23/compare-contrast-obamas-reaction-king-abdullah-hugo-chavez/
It is interesting how Mexican workers entering the US without work permits are consistently called "illegals" in the media -- but the Israelis entering the west bank in contradiction to well established international law are never referred to as illegals in the western media.
It is sad that all that this article can muster up to describe these illegals is describing them as "communities, considered illegal by the UN."
Egypt is a fascist kleptocracy. The judges are part of the collaborator class that is paid to protect the interests of the kleptocracy. As paid collaborators, they lie constantly. Since when have collaborators cared about integrity? It is all about money and status.
The people get the government they deserve.
Sounds like the US/Saudi plan is to set up an army of mercenaries with little popular support to defeat ISIS and Assad at the same time, and then install a puppet government of collaborators. Even if they are able to accomplish that (which is implausible), that will leave embittered opponents in Syria who will launch a long term civil war against the new government.
The American people will be losers in this. The winners will be the Saudi dictatorship who will use the ongoing conflict as an excuse for repressive measures at home to keep their dictatorship in place.
The neocons will also delude themselves that they won because they will believe they harmed Iranian interests by replacing Assad and by opening space between the Iraq government and Iran. The neocon approach is to attack any country that maintains any semblance of independence to discourage other countries from being disobedient. It is the equivalent of the old mafia protection racket. Go along with us - we would hate to seem something happen to that nice country of yours.
US wants to attack Iran to discourage other countries from entertaining the idea of joining a potential Russia/China/Iran coalition as an alternative to US sphere of influence.
Obama and Kerry could not resist the deep state that controls "our" government, even if they wanted to.
Juan, you make some unequivocal statements about public opinion in Egypt being very much anti-hamas. I am curious what your source is. I am sure the elites in Egypt who benefit from the current Kleptocracy that Sisi represents are very much anti Hamas, just as they are very much anti-democracy. But my understanding is measuring the public opinion of the bottom 70 percent of the public in Egypt is very difficult. Many are in fear that telling the truth could damage their careers or even land them in jail to be tortured. They are also constantly barraged by propaganda by the Egyptian media which is owned by the Kleptocracy. Under those circumstances, how can you be so sure of what they actually think? As opposed to what they are forced to say by the circumstances?
Why is anyone surprised? You are not doing you duty as a citizen if you have not read Noam Chomsky's book Manufacturing Consent.
Agree or disagree with him. That is you right. But you cannot claim to be an informed citizen if you just pretend important books such as Manufacturing Consent do not exist.
That particular book was published in 1987. The Vietnam War and the activities of the US in central America in the 1980s provide textbook illustrations of the propaganda methods used in the US media. They are easy to recognize after you do a little basic reading - and they repeat themselves constantly.
Apparently Abdullah is the CIA's preferred candidate. Radio Free Europe? Address in Washington D.C?
Not hard to figure out. The economic elite support the old corrupt system dominated by the military which provides them with enormous privileges. The elite want a propaganda campaign supporting Sisi. They also own the consumer goods companies. So they flood the market with pro-Sisi consumer goods and advertisements.
Pretending this is an organic "free market" response to consumer demand is part of the propaganda model.
In an atmosphere in which one's economic position (Sisi supportors control most large employers) and safety (less likely to be attacked if seen as loyal) can both be advanced by buying "kitchy" consumer crap -- it is no surprise that many buy the stuff.
These techniques were developed and refined during the colonal period by the British and others. Structural incentives are usually enough to recruit collaborators with the colonial power.
Force is used to discipline those who refuse to collaborate - and excessive forced is applied to them to provide a object lesson to any who may be tempted to refuse to collaborate. Non conformists must be made an example of.
They are all pretty simple and standard methods of control.
The extensive media campaign demonizing the Brotherhood is a more logical explanation.
Also, suppose one wants to advance in their careers - or avoid surviellance by the security state - in the current environment, isn't claiming to be secular the way to accomplish those goals?