The US strategy for a war with China and Iran is the Centre for Strategic Budgetary Assessment (CSBA)?s concept Airsea-Battle which puts emphazize on the navy and the airforce. Another strategy is the Offshore Controll by US strategist TX Hammes which is a naval blocade against China emphazizing the importance of a strong US Navy.
It is interesting to see that Juan Cole and Western media never mention the role of the Muslimbrotherhood in the Syrian militias.They talk about Al Nusra, IS, but never mention the Muslimbrotherhood which will also have a big share within the Anti-Assad fighters.Maybe Jaysh el- Fath is mainly a Muslimbrotherhood militia which gets support by the new detente between Turkey, Saudiarabia and Qatar.Erdogan wants a neoosman empire covering Damaskus, Northafrica, Jerusalem and Mekka.The Muslimbrotherhood will be his main supporter for such an neoosman ummah.And probably Jaysh el-Fateh si the instrument to get it in Syria.
Juan Cole forgets to mention that Prophet Muhammed as mainstream Islamic representative occupied land by force, beheaded, tortured und enslaved infidels--just as the IS did. Therefore to say IS had nothing to do with islam is historical nonsense.
"On top of that, the Gülen movement has received billions in support from the US."
Could you quote any source for that thesis? Does Gulen get funds from the CIA, the US goverments, party foundations or influentuial private donors. Who exactly is "the US"? What could be the interest of the USA supporting Gulen? His more prowestern foreign policy towards the USA and Israel, his anti-Iran position?
Interesting article and analysis, but I think the label "liberal Islam" doesn´t fit to the reality of the Gulen movement and Erdogan.The Gulen movement is a secret society which doesn´t take care about popular support by an electorate or democratic controll by the seperation of power, but wants to seize power by the infiltration and usurpation of the state machinery.As long as they don´t have the power they tactically speak of liberalism, democracy,etc., but similar to Erdogan when they should get the power they will forget all these rethorics and establish a autotharian Islamic state. Don´t follyourselve with the label "liberal Islam".That´s wishful thinking.
But to come back to reality: The goal of a new democratic and secular party which could challenge the authoriatism of Erdogan and the Kemalist doesn´t fit the te reality of Twitter-revolutionaries. Twitterrevolutionaries are very individualistic and hedonistic, reject anything which they perceive as "ideology"or "too political", means: the need of a broad political consensus and the organization of a politcal party. These guys are just the Pussy Riots of Turkey, more a life-style protest than being political, That is the weak point on all of these "revolutions" from Occupy Wallstreet to the Arab spring,etc.Th eold parties desillsuioned people in the term of organizing a party, becoming political and the new generation is too antipolitical to think in terms of organizing power as power is something bad.Therefore Erdogan will have an easy game and his opponents will come from the established parties and organizations.
There are also other parameters: First: There could be an inner struggle between Gul and Erdogan, secondly: the Gulen movement could transform into a political party or go underground, third: Erdogan could form an inner circle of absolute loyalists and establish a sultanate/presidential dictatorship. However a new democratic and secular paty won´t be a development till the next elections, but in a middle and long term perspective. As Turkey still has the 10% limitation for political parties, it is unlikely that a new party will be successful in the next elections. But it should be established by the new generation of Geziprotesters and could develop like the AKP--from out of nowhere to a real political force.However if Erdogan is setting up a dictatorship this could drive the activists in underground.However: Civil society and Twitter-revolution means nothing if it isn´t organizing in a real party who is chanllenging Erdogan and the old Kemalists in the elections.This new party should be a compromise between moderate Muslims and secular forces who agree on the principle of seperation between religion and state and the seperation of power.It also could have some sort of critisim of Erdogan`s neoliberal economic policy and its negative side effects.
When I speak of a new secular and democratic party I don´t mean that the HDP is such an alternative. As you already mentioned the HDP is run by former BDP and CHP cadres. But what Turkey needs are uncorrupted, new politicinas who have no roots in the old parties.
I think the corruption allegations will weaken Erdogan in the next election, but not to the extent some observers wish it should.As long as the economy is booming, most people still will admire Erdogan. However, the spilt between Gülen and Erdogan, the inside.struggle between two Islamist groups could be a chance for the secular spectrum.However, Turkish authotarian attitudes are not just a phenomen since the AKP became a player, but is deep rooted in the authotarian policy under Attaturk and his followers. To become a democtratic society need s a civil society and this will be a process of decades.Maybe the Gezi protstests were the beginning of that process--however since no new politcal secualr and democtartic party is founded, there will be no real social power which could change the status quo.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States will grant Egypt 9-11 billion dollars. Therefore a cut of the 2 billions US military aid won´t have much effect.And why should the USA cut its military aid? The Egyptian military is a reliable partner against the Muslimbrotherhood and the Salafists.
We should support them. As a German I ´m also againts the EU reducing its 5 billion aid to Egypt.I prefer a secular goverment and even the military opposed to the reign of Islamist Muslimbrothers.
160 death/ a year is not very much. Compare this to wars like Korea or Vietnam, where millions lost their lives.Even in Iraq we had about 150 000 death.Even in Libya more people were killed when thy toppled Ghaddafi.Therefore Obama´s war in AfPak is very restricted and low-intensity.Why such harsh critisism by Juan Cole? What sort of war does he want?
If you talk about German Herrenmensch Thilo Sarrazin, I cannot discover any admiration by Sarrazin for Muslims. In his views Muslims are stupid, dumb underdogs with no intelligence. Even worse: Sarrazin says that Muslims genetically have a lower IQ while Jews have a higher one.Sarrazin is a social darwinist with biological racism. He compares Muslims and Germans with horse races--the Muslims being the inferior race. Therefore I would like to know from which source you quoted the statement that Sarrazin is admirng Islamic fundamentalists.
It´s disgustng how Michelle Bachmann is using these racist steretypes against Muslims and now against the Democratic Party.But the Tea Party Movement was also accuisng Barack Hussein Obama being a Muslim and part of an Islamic plot and coup d´etat against the USA.Nothing new. However: Do Americans believe this racist crap?
The US strategy for a war with China and Iran is the Centre for Strategic Budgetary Assessment (CSBA)?s concept Airsea-Battle which puts emphazize on the navy and the airforce. Another strategy is the Offshore Controll by US strategist TX Hammes which is a naval blocade against China emphazizing the importance of a strong US Navy.
It is interesting to see that Juan Cole and Western media never mention the role of the Muslimbrotherhood in the Syrian militias.They talk about Al Nusra, IS, but never mention the Muslimbrotherhood which will also have a big share within the Anti-Assad fighters.Maybe Jaysh el- Fath is mainly a Muslimbrotherhood militia which gets support by the new detente between Turkey, Saudiarabia and Qatar.Erdogan wants a neoosman empire covering Damaskus, Northafrica, Jerusalem and Mekka.The Muslimbrotherhood will be his main supporter for such an neoosman ummah.And probably Jaysh el-Fateh si the instrument to get it in Syria.
Juan Cole forgets to mention that Prophet Muhammed as mainstream Islamic representative occupied land by force, beheaded, tortured und enslaved infidels--just as the IS did. Therefore to say IS had nothing to do with islam is historical nonsense.
"On top of that, the Gülen movement has received billions in support from the US."
Could you quote any source for that thesis? Does Gulen get funds from the CIA, the US goverments, party foundations or influentuial private donors. Who exactly is "the US"? What could be the interest of the USA supporting Gulen? His more prowestern foreign policy towards the USA and Israel, his anti-Iran position?
Interesting article and analysis, but I think the label "liberal Islam" doesn´t fit to the reality of the Gulen movement and Erdogan.The Gulen movement is a secret society which doesn´t take care about popular support by an electorate or democratic controll by the seperation of power, but wants to seize power by the infiltration and usurpation of the state machinery.As long as they don´t have the power they tactically speak of liberalism, democracy,etc., but similar to Erdogan when they should get the power they will forget all these rethorics and establish a autotharian Islamic state. Don´t follyourselve with the label "liberal Islam".That´s wishful thinking.
But to come back to reality: The goal of a new democratic and secular party which could challenge the authoriatism of Erdogan and the Kemalist doesn´t fit the te reality of Twitter-revolutionaries. Twitterrevolutionaries are very individualistic and hedonistic, reject anything which they perceive as "ideology"or "too political", means: the need of a broad political consensus and the organization of a politcal party. These guys are just the Pussy Riots of Turkey, more a life-style protest than being political, That is the weak point on all of these "revolutions" from Occupy Wallstreet to the Arab spring,etc.Th eold parties desillsuioned people in the term of organizing a party, becoming political and the new generation is too antipolitical to think in terms of organizing power as power is something bad.Therefore Erdogan will have an easy game and his opponents will come from the established parties and organizations.
There are also other parameters: First: There could be an inner struggle between Gul and Erdogan, secondly: the Gulen movement could transform into a political party or go underground, third: Erdogan could form an inner circle of absolute loyalists and establish a sultanate/presidential dictatorship. However a new democratic and secular paty won´t be a development till the next elections, but in a middle and long term perspective. As Turkey still has the 10% limitation for political parties, it is unlikely that a new party will be successful in the next elections. But it should be established by the new generation of Geziprotesters and could develop like the AKP--from out of nowhere to a real political force.However if Erdogan is setting up a dictatorship this could drive the activists in underground.However: Civil society and Twitter-revolution means nothing if it isn´t organizing in a real party who is chanllenging Erdogan and the old Kemalists in the elections.This new party should be a compromise between moderate Muslims and secular forces who agree on the principle of seperation between religion and state and the seperation of power.It also could have some sort of critisim of Erdogan`s neoliberal economic policy and its negative side effects.
When I speak of a new secular and democratic party I don´t mean that the HDP is such an alternative. As you already mentioned the HDP is run by former BDP and CHP cadres. But what Turkey needs are uncorrupted, new politicinas who have no roots in the old parties.
I think the corruption allegations will weaken Erdogan in the next election, but not to the extent some observers wish it should.As long as the economy is booming, most people still will admire Erdogan. However, the spilt between Gülen and Erdogan, the inside.struggle between two Islamist groups could be a chance for the secular spectrum.However, Turkish authotarian attitudes are not just a phenomen since the AKP became a player, but is deep rooted in the authotarian policy under Attaturk and his followers. To become a democtratic society need s a civil society and this will be a process of decades.Maybe the Gezi protstests were the beginning of that process--however since no new politcal secualr and democtartic party is founded, there will be no real social power which could change the status quo.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States will grant Egypt 9-11 billion dollars. Therefore a cut of the 2 billions US military aid won´t have much effect.And why should the USA cut its military aid? The Egyptian military is a reliable partner against the Muslimbrotherhood and the Salafists.
We should support them. As a German I ´m also againts the EU reducing its 5 billion aid to Egypt.I prefer a secular goverment and even the military opposed to the reign of Islamist Muslimbrothers.
160 death/ a year is not very much. Compare this to wars like Korea or Vietnam, where millions lost their lives.Even in Iraq we had about 150 000 death.Even in Libya more people were killed when thy toppled Ghaddafi.Therefore Obama´s war in AfPak is very restricted and low-intensity.Why such harsh critisism by Juan Cole? What sort of war does he want?
If you talk about German Herrenmensch Thilo Sarrazin, I cannot discover any admiration by Sarrazin for Muslims. In his views Muslims are stupid, dumb underdogs with no intelligence. Even worse: Sarrazin says that Muslims genetically have a lower IQ while Jews have a higher one.Sarrazin is a social darwinist with biological racism. He compares Muslims and Germans with horse races--the Muslims being the inferior race. Therefore I would like to know from which source you quoted the statement that Sarrazin is admirng Islamic fundamentalists.
It´s disgustng how Michelle Bachmann is using these racist steretypes against Muslims and now against the Democratic Party.But the Tea Party Movement was also accuisng Barack Hussein Obama being a Muslim and part of an Islamic plot and coup d´etat against the USA.Nothing new. However: Do Americans believe this racist crap?