Shall we play that silly game? One might speculate that the curious timing had to do with waiting until the rebel backs were against the wall in order to milk the best post-Qaddafi deal for the oil out of them? Or maybe waiting until the deal for the GCC invasion of Bahrain was finalized and the Arab League endorsement could be secured as cover? Curious timing indeed.
One thing that appears to distinguish the Libyan situation from that in Egypt or Tunisia is that, strangely enough, there were (are?) people willing to fight for Qaddafi. I have yet to see any convincing explanation why. Money? Both Mubarak and Ben Ali had that too, but no takers. Ideology? Libya doesn’t seem much like Iran. The easy answer is that they fear Qaddafi, but the logic of that answer seems circular—he can do nothing to them unless a significant number of people are willing to carry out the actions (see Mubarak and Ben Ali). I wonder if maybe a good many people feel the rebels are more a threat to them than the current government. I haven’t seen this question asked.
Qaddafi is clearly a horror, but who exactly are the people on the other side? The ones who have been meeting with Clinton/Sarkozy/Cameron and so forth hardly inspire confidence. The former justice minister whose one claim to fame was complaining that the secret police were holding prisoners a bit too long after he had authorized their release? (Seems like more of a shot in a bureaucratic turf war than a principled stand.) The former minister for trade—the one who led the privatization effort—a famous deal-maker. Really? Let the cruise missiles fly to advance the cause of those guys? It’s difficult to imagine the lot of the average Libyan improving under their leadership.
Everyone from Obama to Erdogan has been calling all along for Qaddafi to step down. Cynical. Qaddafi must well know that only western-funded dictators get to step down from power and go off into a comfortable exile. Like Francois Duvalier off to France in a U.S. military jet. Or the Shah in his wanderings. Or Suharto to his compound in Jakarta. Or Marcos to Honolulu on a USAF C-130. Or…well, the point is made.
And what is the long-term plan anyway? If the Libyan army doesn’t cave-in quickly will the various air forces keep bombing ‘targets’ in Libya? Maybe they will coordinate with the rebel advance? That would set an interesting precedent. Or if that isn’t effective enough, maybe some ‘boots on the ground’ to preserve ‘credibility’? Ugh. How many more Libyans will be dead by then?
Yes, gather as much information as you can. Evaluate it to the best of your ability. Take a position based on that. But, Juan, you forgot the next step. Put your notebook down for a second and look around you to see what company you’re in. If you are standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the likes of Sarkozy, Cameron, Harper and Clinton, maybe it’s time to look your notes over again. You might still be correct, but…
Anyone who underestimates the AKP or tries to put them into a neat ideological box does so at their peril.
I can't see them pulling out of NATO. Being a NATO member has several benefits to the AKP. Not least is the political capital to be gained from effectively stalling an action like the no-fly zone. Erdogan is a past master of the grandstanding gesture and he has many proteges in the party.
As to the EU--the leadership of the AKP has never really had any intention to join the EU in my opinion. However the accession process has been very useful to them in many ways and I would expect them to keep it alive.
For one it has aided in weakening the military and eliminating it from having any real political role. The never-ending and constantly expanding 'Ergenekon' investigation will likely finish off the rump of the military/ultra nat opposition.
A story that is sure to bring out a comment from every armchair intelligence analyst. Allow me to join the queue. It is odd from any angle that the package would not have been sent to an intermediary for re-wrapping and re-addressing. That would wash the highly suspicious point of origin. Including a twist like that would certainly have made the Saudi story a bit more believable. One would also expect such a practice to be on a fairly early page in whatever manual the 'AQAP' is working from. That no such step was taken smells of an agent provocateur situation to me. One would imagine that the Saudis could hardly risk washing it through their own agency and a setup loner wouldn't have an 'AQAP' contact outside of Yemen.
Shall we play that silly game? One might speculate that the curious timing had to do with waiting until the rebel backs were against the wall in order to milk the best post-Qaddafi deal for the oil out of them? Or maybe waiting until the deal for the GCC invasion of Bahrain was finalized and the Arab League endorsement could be secured as cover? Curious timing indeed.
One thing that appears to distinguish the Libyan situation from that in Egypt or Tunisia is that, strangely enough, there were (are?) people willing to fight for Qaddafi. I have yet to see any convincing explanation why. Money? Both Mubarak and Ben Ali had that too, but no takers. Ideology? Libya doesn’t seem much like Iran. The easy answer is that they fear Qaddafi, but the logic of that answer seems circular—he can do nothing to them unless a significant number of people are willing to carry out the actions (see Mubarak and Ben Ali). I wonder if maybe a good many people feel the rebels are more a threat to them than the current government. I haven’t seen this question asked.
Qaddafi is clearly a horror, but who exactly are the people on the other side? The ones who have been meeting with Clinton/Sarkozy/Cameron and so forth hardly inspire confidence. The former justice minister whose one claim to fame was complaining that the secret police were holding prisoners a bit too long after he had authorized their release? (Seems like more of a shot in a bureaucratic turf war than a principled stand.) The former minister for trade—the one who led the privatization effort—a famous deal-maker. Really? Let the cruise missiles fly to advance the cause of those guys? It’s difficult to imagine the lot of the average Libyan improving under their leadership.
Everyone from Obama to Erdogan has been calling all along for Qaddafi to step down. Cynical. Qaddafi must well know that only western-funded dictators get to step down from power and go off into a comfortable exile. Like Francois Duvalier off to France in a U.S. military jet. Or the Shah in his wanderings. Or Suharto to his compound in Jakarta. Or Marcos to Honolulu on a USAF C-130. Or…well, the point is made.
And what is the long-term plan anyway? If the Libyan army doesn’t cave-in quickly will the various air forces keep bombing ‘targets’ in Libya? Maybe they will coordinate with the rebel advance? That would set an interesting precedent. Or if that isn’t effective enough, maybe some ‘boots on the ground’ to preserve ‘credibility’? Ugh. How many more Libyans will be dead by then?
Yes, gather as much information as you can. Evaluate it to the best of your ability. Take a position based on that. But, Juan, you forgot the next step. Put your notebook down for a second and look around you to see what company you’re in. If you are standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the likes of Sarkozy, Cameron, Harper and Clinton, maybe it’s time to look your notes over again. You might still be correct, but…
Anyone who underestimates the AKP or tries to put them into a neat ideological box does so at their peril.
I can't see them pulling out of NATO. Being a NATO member has several benefits to the AKP. Not least is the political capital to be gained from effectively stalling an action like the no-fly zone. Erdogan is a past master of the grandstanding gesture and he has many proteges in the party.
As to the EU--the leadership of the AKP has never really had any intention to join the EU in my opinion. However the accession process has been very useful to them in many ways and I would expect them to keep it alive.
For one it has aided in weakening the military and eliminating it from having any real political role. The never-ending and constantly expanding 'Ergenekon' investigation will likely finish off the rump of the military/ultra nat opposition.
A story that is sure to bring out a comment from every armchair intelligence analyst. Allow me to join the queue. It is odd from any angle that the package would not have been sent to an intermediary for re-wrapping and re-addressing. That would wash the highly suspicious point of origin. Including a twist like that would certainly have made the Saudi story a bit more believable. One would also expect such a practice to be on a fairly early page in whatever manual the 'AQAP' is working from. That no such step was taken smells of an agent provocateur situation to me. One would imagine that the Saudis could hardly risk washing it through their own agency and a setup loner wouldn't have an 'AQAP' contact outside of Yemen.