One problem that gets very little attention is that climate (and weather) are both "chaotic systems" (see "strange attractors".) Unfortunately we know that there is a system of mathematics that would allow us to better predict chaotic phase shifts, but as of yet we have not discovered it. This leaves scientists struggling to use linear deterministic models to predict conditions that are neither linear nor deterministic. Lorenz discovered the futility of linear models in 1963, but we continue to use them without really explaining that it is the only tool in our kit --- and an inappropriate one at that. It is a lot like trying to do watch repair when the only tool you have is a hammer.
One problem that gets very little attention is that climate (and weather) are both "chaotic systems" (see "strange attractors".) Unfortunately we know that there is a system of mathematics that would allow us to better predict chaotic phase shifts, but as of yet we have not discovered it. This leaves scientists struggling to use linear deterministic models to predict conditions that are neither linear nor deterministic. Lorenz discovered the futility of linear models in 1963, but we continue to use them without really explaining that it is the only tool in our kit --- and an inappropriate one at that. It is a lot like trying to do watch repair when the only tool you have is a hammer.