Israel – Informed Comment https://www.juancole.com Thoughts on the Middle East, History and Religion Fri, 26 Apr 2024 05:04:58 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8.9 Zionism’s Expired Shelf-Life: Why Naomi Klein is right that it has become Pharaoh https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/zionisms-expired-pharaoh.html Fri, 26 Apr 2024 04:54:11 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=218251 Oakland, Ca. (Special to Informed Comment; Feature) – Previously I’ve argued that Zionism has run its course as a political movement, and accomplished its goal: The creation of a viable Jewish nation-state. I’ve also argued that Zionism under Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi) has become a driving force in nurturing global anti-Semitism. He has perverted and mutated Zionism to where it has become a affront to the ideals of Torah and Judaism. It’s also become a threat to democracy in the US as well as Israel. With Israel’s embrace of American Evangelical communities over progressive Jews, and Bibi’s alliance with former President Donald Trump, he has meddled into American politics to promote Trump, who has proven to be the greatest threat to Western-style Democracy since World War II.

The Anne Frank House Center says that, “Zionism is about the pursuit of an independent Jewish state.” That was accomplished in 1948, and affirmed in bloody wars in 1956, 1967, 1973 and in various attacks and battles since then. On October 7 the Zionist military apparatus, for all its impressiveness, failed because of hubris. Modern Jewish history didn’t start then. The post-World War I San Remo Conference of 1920 was the genesis for current dynamics, when the artificial boundaries of the Levant were created by the victorious Western empires.  

Zionism is abused as a social and religious cudgel by the Evangelical movement, and has become another tool of divisiveness for the American far-right. Evangelicals, not Jews, comprise a greater plurality of Israeli tourism now, as more American and European Jews reject this narrative of a “false idol,” in the words of author and activist Naomi Klein. She wrote in a recent ‘Street Seder Address’ published in The Guardian, that Zionism “is a false idol that takes our most profound biblical stories of justice and emancipation from slavery – the story of Passover itself – and turns them into brutalist weapons of colonial land theft, roadmaps for ethnic cleansing and genocide . . . . . a metaphor for human liberation that has traveled across multiple faiths to every corner of this globe – and dared to turn it into a deed of sale for a militaristic ethnostate.”

Netanyahu’s virulent Likud form of Zionism, which he has now allied with the openly racist and even genocidal Religious Zionism and Jewish Power blocs, has created an image of the movement that is anathema to many progressive and leftist activists, and it fuels anti-Semitism as less informed people on the right and left conflate this ruthless ultra-nationalism with Judaism. Just as marriages can run their course, leading to a necessary divorce, the time has come for Jews to divorce Zionism. Bibi has become a literal Pharaoh to Palestinians.  Klein adds, “From the start it has produced an ugly kind of freedom that saw Palestinian children not as human beings but as demographic threats – much as the pharaoh in the Book of Exodus feared the growing population of Israelites, and thus ordered the death of their sons. It is a false idol that has led far too many of our own people down a deeply immoral path that now has them justifying the shredding of core commandments: thou shalt not kill. Thou shalt not steal. Thou shalt not covet.”

Democracy Now! Video: “Naomi Klein: Jews Must Raise Voices for Palestine, Oppose “False Idol of Zionism”

It’s important to remember that “Judaism and Zionism are two distinct terms often intertwined, in reality, they represent rather distinct concepts with different historical, cultural, and most importantly, political implications,” as noted in The Business Standard.  They add, “Following the establishment of Israel, Zionism became an ideology that continues to support the development and protection of the State of Israel. Zionism, at its core, can be understood as a manifestation of Jewish nationalism.”  Judaism is a religion, while Zionism is a political ideology.

 The original anti-Zionists were, “from fringe Orthodox sects and maintain that Israel can only be regained miraculously. They view the present state as a blasphemous human attempt to usurp God’s role, and many seek to dismantle the secular State of Israel. However, unlike many gentile anti­-Zionists, Jewish anti-Zionists usually firmly believe in the Jewish right to the Land of Israel, but only at the future time of redemption.”  Though the Neturei Karta were the most visible of observant anti-Zionists, most Haredim in Israel continue that tradition with their refusal to participate in the military or support the embattled state.

Klein asserts that the Zionist ideology, “. . .  is a false idol that equates Jewish freedom with cluster bombs that kill and maim Palestinian children. Zionism is a false idol that has betrayed every Jewish value, including the value we place on questioning – a practice embedded in the Seder with its four questions asked by the youngest child. . . . Including the love we have as a people for text and for education. . . .Today, this false idol justifies the bombing of every university in Gaza; the destruction of countless schools, of archives, of printing presses; the killing of hundreds of academics, of journalists, of poets.” She calls this “scholasticide,” which is parallel to the burning of libraries and synagogues by Nazis.

The American Jewish Committee (AJC) is one of many Western Jewish organizations that continues to promote the false idol narrative.  They argue that anti-Zionism means that Jews “do not have a right to self-determination — or that the Jewish people’s religious and historical connection to Israel is invalid.” The AJC also says that, “Calling for a Palestinian nation-state, while simultaneously advocating for an end to the Jewish nation-state is hypocritical at best, and potentially anti-Semitic.” The polemical problem is that the Jewish nation is a powerful “fact on the ground,” though threatened by hostile outside forces. Israel is a political reality. But Judaism and Zionism are also threatened internally by Bibi’s leadership record of self-destruction, as his primary aim is political self-preservation. Israel’s economy and security are also undermined by the refusal of the Haredim to support the state and serve in the military.

Not only can Israel remain secure without Zionism; it may become more secure, as the provocations towards Palestinians would cease. The Temple Sunday School narrative minimizes, euphemizes and marginalizes what Palestinians suffered in the Nabka, concurrent with Israeli independence. It’s time to correct that false narrative, and recognize that Zionism has run its course.

The outpouring of objection to American funding of the Israeli war machine is unprecedented in size and scope. In turn the size and scope of government efforts to quash these protests is also unprecedented, now becoming evocative of Kent State in 1970. That’s the first thing that comes to mind when anyone proposes placing National Guard troops on a US college campus. Doing so would be a provocation and incitement for escalation, and that game plan appears to be unfolding.

Judaism and its offshoots, Christianity and Islam, have all been plagued by departures from their spiritual ethics into orgies of violence. We see this phenomenon in Bibi’s brand of imperial Zionism, Hamas’ and other extremist groups’ violent perversion of Islam, preferring an ideology of hate and misogyny, and the White Christian Nationalist movement in the US, fueled by Trump. The religions of Christianity and Islam have struggled to come to terms with secular modernity, and have seen powerful and violent movements during that struggle. Judaism has the spiritual Reform movement, but no corresponding social-political movement. Judaism came first and has an obligation to take the lead in creating a new paradigm, of a monotheistic, biblically-rooted tradition that nevertheless stands for tolerance and human rights for all. Jews must recognize that the shelf-life of Zionism has expired. Also important is that Judaism is a religion, not a form of ethno-nationalism, despite former President Trump’s attempts to dragoon all Jews into the effort to censor free speech over Palestinian human rights.

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The Ideological Coup: How Far Right Kahanist Extremists Became the Face of Israel https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/ideological-kahanist-extremists.html Thu, 25 Apr 2024 04:06:37 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=218223 ( Middle East Monitor ) – Throughout history, fringe religious Zionist parties have had limited success in achieving the kind of electoral victories that would allow them an actual share in the country’s political decision-making.

The impressive number of 17 seats won by Israel’s extremist religious party, Shas, in the 1999 election was a watershed moment in the history of these parties, whose ideological roots go back to Avraham Itzhak Kook and his son Zvi Yehuda Hacohen.

Israeli historian Ilan Pappé referred to the Kooks’ ideological influence as a “fusion of dogmatic messianism and violence”.

Throughout the years, these religious parties struggled on several fronts: their inability to unify their ranks, their failure to appeal to mainstream Israeli society and their inability to strike the balance between their messianic political discourse and the kind of language – not necessarily behaviour – that Israel’s western allies expect.

Though much of the financial support and political backing of Israel’s extremists originate in the United States and, to a lesser extent, European countries, Washington has been clear regarding its public perception of Israel’s religious extremists.

In 2004, the United States banned the Kach party, which could be seen as the modern manifestation of the Kooks and Israel’s early religious Zionist ideologues.

The founder of the group, Meir Kahane was, in fact, assassinated in November 1990 while the extremist rabbi – responsible for much violence against innocent Palestinians throughout the years – was giving another hate-filled speech in Manhattan.

Kahane’s death was only the start of much violence meted out by his followers, lead among them an American doctor, Baruch Goldstein, who gunned down on 25 February 1994, dozens of Palestinian Muslim worshippers at the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron.

Hindustan Times Video: “‘Attack Rafah Or…’: Ben-Gvir Threatens To Bring Down Netanyahu Govt After IDF Troop Withdrawal”

The number of Palestinians killed by Israeli soldiers while protesting the massacre was nearly as many as those killed by Goldstein earlier in the day, a tragic but a perfect representation of the relationship between the Israeli state and the violent settlers who operate as part of a larger state agenda.

That massacre was a watershed moment in the history of religious Zionism. Instead of serving as an opportunity to marginalise their growing influence, by the supposedly more liberal Zionists, they grew in power and, ultimately, political influence within the Israeli state.

Goldstein himself became a hero, whose grave, in Israel’s most extremist illegal settlement in the West Bank, Kiryat Arba, is now a popular shrine, a place of pilgrimage for thousands of Israelis.

Particularly telling is that Goldstein’s shrine has been built opposite Meir Kahane’s Memorial Park, which is indicative of the clear ideological connections between these individuals, groups and also funders.

In recent years, however, the traditional role played by Israel’s religious Zionists began to shift, leading to the election of Itamar Ben-Gvir to the Israeli Knesset in 2021 and, ultimately, to his role as the country’s national security minister in December 2022.

Ben-Gvir is a follower of Kahane. “It seems to me that ultimately Rabbi Kahane was about love. Love for Israel without compromise, without any other consideration,” he said in November 2022.

But, unlike Kahane, Ben-Gvir was not satisfied with the role of religious Zionists as cheerleaders for the settlement movement, almost daily raids of Al-Aqsa and the occasional attacks on Palestinians. He wanted to be at the centre of Israeli political power.

Whether Ben-Gvir achieved his status as a direct result of the successful grassroots work of religious Zionism, or because the political circumstances of Israel itself have changed in his favour, is an interesting debate.

The truth, however, might be somewhere in the middle. The historic failure of Israel’s so-called political left – namely the Labor Party – has, in recent years, propelled a relatively unfamiliar phenomenon – the political centre.

Meanwhile, Israel’s traditional right, the Likud Party, grew weaker, partly because it failed to appeal to the growing, more youthful religious Zionism constituency, and also because of the series of splits, which occurred as a result of Ariel Sharon’s breaking-up of the party in and the founding of Kadima in 2005 – a party which has been long disbanded.

To survive, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has redefined his party to its most extremist version of all time and, thus, began to attract religious Zionists with the hope of filling the gaps created because of internal infighting within the Likud.

By doing so, Netanyahu has granted religious Zionists the opportunity of a lifetime.

Soon, following the 7 October Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and in the early days of the Israeli genocide in Gaza, Ben-Gvir launched his National Guard, a group which he tried, but failed, to compose prior to the war.

Thanks to Ben-Gvir, Israel, now, per the words of opposition leader Yair, has become a country with a “private militia”.

By 19 March, Ben-Gvir announced that 100,000 gun permits had been handed over to his supporters. It is within this period that the US began imposing ‘sanctions’ on a few individuals affiliated with Israel’s settler extremist movement, a small slap on the wrist considering the massive damage that has already been done and the great violence that is likely to follow in the coming months and years.

Unlike Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir’s thinking is not limited to his desire to reach a specific position within the government. Israel’s religious extremists are seeking a fundamental and irreversible shift in Israeli politics.

The relatively recent push to change the relationship between the judicial and exclusive branches of government was as important to those extremists as it was to Netanyahu himself. The latter, however, has championed such an initiative to shield himself against legal accountability, while Ben-Gvir’s supporters have a different reason in mind: they want to be able to dominate the government and the military, with no accountability or oversight.

Israel’s religious Zionists are playing a long game, which is not linked to a particular election, individual or government coalition. They are redefining the state, along with its ideology. And they are winning.

It goes without saying that Ben-Gvir, and his threats to topple Netanyahu’s coalition government, have been the main driving force behind the genocide in Gaza.

If Meir Kahane was still alive, he would have been proud of his followers. The ideology of the once marginalised and loathed extremist rabbi is now the backbone of Israeli politics.

 

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor or Informed Comment.

Creative Commons LicenseThis work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Via Middle East Monitor

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Red Lines and Rockets: Reframing the War on Gaza https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/lines-rockets-reframing.html Sat, 20 Apr 2024 04:15:18 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=218145 Madison, Wisconsin (Special to Informed Comment; Feature) – Barely a day after Iran fired drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles westward across the desert skies towards Israel, in response to Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Hossein Salami, issued the following statement: “From now on, if Israel attacks Iranian interests, figures, and citizens anywhere, Iran will retaliate from Iranian soil.” If Iran stands by this declaration, it has issued a new red line in the simmering regional war Israel has instigated with its brutal destruction of Gaza.

Viewers accustomed to American media will likely blame Iran for any intensification of hostilities. In fact, however, virtually every act of aggression that has taken place in the region since October 8th is rooted in Israel’s ‘war’ on Gaza, which has deep roots not only in the European colonial past but in religious mythology and a Zionist ideology that is rigid, chauvinistic and exclusive. All three factors underscore the belief that Jews alone have a right to historic Palestine.

Across America, as the carefully choreographed Iranian “attack” played out like a fireworks display on our television screens, Hudia –a friend of mine in Rafah, Gaza—recorded her thoughts:

    “Was Iran allowed to attack Israel so that the world’s attention would be drawn away from Gaza? If so, it was successful. Here in Gaza, however, Israel’s destruction did not stop for one second. Iranian missiles broke apart in the skies to our east, but the drones and bombs over our heads remained intact until they exploded on the ground, scattering debris and human bodies.”

On Saturday morning, 13 April 2024, the Palestinian Ministry of Health reported 33,634 Palestinians killed and 76, 214 injured in Israeli attacks on Gaza since October 7th. By Monday morning, 15 April 2024, the death toll had increased to over 33,800 – an addition of nearly two hundred bodies—but global attention was now focused on Iran.

For the US and Israel this was a win. Herzl Halevi, Chief of Staff of Israel’s military, promised a response –a sinister pledge since Iran’s “attack” was supposed to have been the conclusion to Israel’s April 1st bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus in which Israel targeted what is considered sovereign Iranian territory, according to the 1961 Vienna Convention.

The Young Turks Video: “Israel Attacks Iran After Vowing Retaliation”

With this strike, Israel killed 16 people, including seven IRCG soldiers, two of whom were high-ranking officers, Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi.

Halevi and his associates in Israel understood the attack in Syria would have consequences beyond fulminations against the ‘Zionist entity.’ For the first time in its history, the Islamic Republic of Iran struck back at Israel. But this was little more than a face-saving measure.

Iran gave the US fair warning –allowing it to caution its embassy staff in Israel not to travel – and appears to have aimed most of its weapons at the Nevatim Air Base in southern Israel, where the F-35 that struck Damascus began its flight. This was a largely symbolic strike, one that aimed “to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle.”

Iran is uninterested in regional war, least of all one that involves the United States. Why then are the Israelis so keen to hit back at Iran?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken the opportunity to justify a retaliatory attack. He has openly sought such a war for nearly 30 years. Although US President Joe Biden told Israel the US would not participate in any Israeli action against Iran, he has repeatedly told Israel US support is “ironclad”. If Iran attacks Israel again US participation is therefore guaranteed.

The American Israeli tango taking place has other curious features. When the US bombed several Middle East targets after three American service personnel were killed at Tower 22 in Jordan, Iran called on allied militia groups to cease all attacks against US bases in the region. After the Israeli strike in Damascus the Iranians held the United States responsible, placing US troops in danger yet again.

Rather than express anger at Israel, the US, UK, and France blocked a UN resolution condemning Israel’s actions.  Iran’s offer not to hit back militarily if the UN condemned Israel’s actions was ignored. The United States was therefore instrumental in fueling Iran’s counterattack.

In Egypt and Qatar, Hamas negotiators have repeatedly demanded a permanent ceasefire in exchange for all the hostages taken on October 7th, yet Israeli negotiators have consistently refused insisting they must defeat Hamas in Gaza before the fighting stops. One result has been a surge in Hamas’ popularity across the Middle East; another is that the hostages remain in captivity. The US vetoed three UNSC resolutions demanding a ceasefire, abstained once, falsely claiming the resolution was “non-binding;” and continues to entertain Israel’s plan to invade Rafah.

With global attention focused on Israeli-Iranian tensions, Netanyahu can claim at least a partial victory. What better way to salvage Israel’s image, battered by its genocidal actions in Gaza, than to spearhead an assault against the “Axis of Resistance”?

Israel can again claim it is a tiny, beleaguered nation fighting valiantly against “terrorism” and Islamic ‘treachery’ with Hamas (and Palestinian Islamic Jihad) portrayed as the agents of Tehran. As such, Hamas is but one arm of the sinister ‘octopus’ whose head is the Islamic Republic and whose other arms include Hizbullah of Lebanon, Ansar Allah of Yemen, Syria, and various Iraqi paramilitaries.

For some in the West, Palestine is just a fig leaf covering the Axis’ greater goal of destroying Israel, instrumentalized by antisemites and shadowy anti-enlightenment villains determined to overthrow Western civilization. The protection of the Jewish State then becomes a moral duty.

Instead of being seen as a rogue nation pulverizing the Gaza Strip into oblivion, Israel will try to convince the world that its destruction of Gaza is to protect the world we know. If Palestinians have already been dehumanized to the extent that genocidal murder and displacement raise few eyebrows, they can be partly de-nationalized as well. Palestine will no longer be the central issue; our core Western values, of which Israel is a key representative, are under threat.

Is this the framework Netanyahu and his cohorts here and in Israel wish to reinforce? If so, they can ‘rightly’ conclude that demanding a ceasefire in Gaza and ignoring Iran’s attack are suicidal. Hudia writes,

    “Iran’s attack did nothing but divert attention from what’s happening here. Hundreds of Iranian drones and rockets evaporated into the atmosphere achieving nothing but heightened tensions with Israel, giving them greater license than ever to carry on with genocide and the ethnic cleansing of Palestine.”
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Israel’s Limited Attack on Iran Appears Aimed at De-Escalating Conflict https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/israels-escalating-conflict.html Sat, 20 Apr 2024 04:04:17 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=218138 By Kian Sharifi

( RFE/RL ) – Israel had vowed to make Iran pay for Tehran’s unprecedented drone and missile attack on April 13.

But Israel’s suspected military response early on April 19 appeared to be limited in scale and scope and aimed at de-escalating tensions with Iran.

Tehran said it shot down three quadcopter drones outside the central city of Isfahan, which is home to key military and nuclear facilities. Unnamed U.S. officials said Israel used missiles in the attack.

Experts said the use of small quadcopter drones, which are unable to travel long distances, suggests the attack was carried out from inside Iranian territory.

Israel has not claimed the attack in Isfahan. But experts said the suspected Israeli response sent a clear message to Tehran.

Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel’s use of quadcopter drones, if confirmed, suggests its aim was to “expose the vulnerability of the Iranian security forces” on their own turf.

Zimmt said the attack was not without its risks, but out of all the options available to Israel, it was possibly the least risky.

“At this stage, deniability is vital to lower the risk. I think that if Israel takes responsibility for what happened — and there is sometimes this tendency among Israeli politicians – this would make it more difficult, not impossible but more difficult, for Iran not to retaliate.”

CNBC TV Video: “Israel launches strike on Iran: Here’s what to know”

Reuters quoted an unnamed Iranian official as saying that Tehran “has no plan to strike back immediately.”

Israel has been accused of previously attacking military sites in Isfahan with small drones. In January 2023, a military factory was hit. Three months later, Iran said it had foiled a drone attack on a Defense Ministry complex in the city.

 

Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that if Israel was behind the Isfahan attack, it was carried out in a manner “that carried the least risk of an Iranian retaliation.”

Iran’s April 13 attack was a response to the suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus on April 1 that killed seven Iranian commanders, including two generals.

Tehran said its attack showed that a “new equation” had been established and that Iran would not let Israeli strikes on Iranian interests abroad go unanswered.

But on the same day as the Isfahan attack, Israel was accused of targeting air defense systems in Syria, a key ally of Tehran where Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has a presence.

Zimmt said Israel wanted to send the message that “first, we retaliated, and second, we attacked in Syria and not just in Iran, meaning we are not ready to accept this so-called ‘new equation’ that the Iranians are trying to force on us.”

Mohammad Zarghami of Radio Farda contributed to this report.

Copyright (c)2024 RFE/RL, Inc. Used with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Via RFE/RL

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Shadow War no more: With Direct Warfare between Israel and Iran, is there any going Back? https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/shadow-warfare-between.html Tue, 16 Apr 2024 04:06:04 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=218062 By Javed Ali, University of Michigan | –

For decades, Iran and Israel have been engaged in a “shadow war.”

Falling short of direct military confrontation, this conflict has been characterized by war through other means – through proxies, cyber attacks, economic sanctions and fiery rhetoric.

Events over the last few weeks in the Middle East have, however, changed the nature of this conflict. First, Israel – it is widely presumed – broke diplomatic norms by bombing an Iranian mission in Syria. The operation, in which 12 individuals were killed – including seven officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp Quds Force – ratcheted up the stakes.

It also crossed a new threshold. Never before had that many Quds Force or other Iranian military officials been killed in a single attack by Iran’s adversaries. Almost immediately, rhetoric from leaders in Tehran indicated Iran would respond swiftly and dramatically.

Then, on April 13, 2024, Iran responded by crossing a line it had, to date, not crossed: launching a direct attack on Israeli soil.

Iran’s attack against Israel was also qualitatively and quantitatively different than anything Tehran had directly attempted before. Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that it consisted of at least 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 surface-to-surface missiles. The attack was launched from positions in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

In physical terms, the barrage caused little damage. Hagari said that 99% of the projectiles sent by Iran were intercepted by air and missile defenses, and that only one person was injured. For now, it appears that Tehran is content with its own response; the Iranian Mission to the United Nations posted a message on social media following the attack indicating that the operation had concluded.

But as an expert on national security and the Middle East, I believe the Iranian attack was not about inflicting physical damage on Israel. It was more about Iran attempting to restore deterrence with Israel following the Damascus incident and showing strength to its domestic audience. In so doing, Tehran’s leaders are also conveying the message that should Israel conduct more aggressive actions against Iranian interests, they are willing to escalate.

Friends, then longtime foes

Iran and Israel have been adversaries virtually since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, when the Shah of Iran fled the country to be replaced by a theocracy. New leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini broke the former regime’s ties with Israel and quickly adopted a strident anti-Israel agenda both in words and policy.

In the decades since, Israel and Iran have inflicted harm on the other’s interests in both the physical and virtual worlds. This has included major terrorist attacks backed by Iran against Israeli interests in Argentina in 1992 and 1994, Tehran’s backing of Hezbollah’s grinding insurgency against Israel in southern Lebanon, and the major operational support provided to Hamas that in part enabled the attacks on Oct. 7, 2023.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials have blamed Israel for the killing of senior military officials and scientists related to Iran’s nuclear program in Iran or elsewhere in the region.

The lack of open acknowledgment by Israel of the killings was to create the illusion of plausible deniability and implant doubt about who was actually responsible.

In recent years, Iran has relied heavily on its “axis of resistance” – militant groups in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza that share some of Tehran’s goals, notably in regard to countering Israel and weakening U.S. influence in the region. In the monthslong conflict sparked by the Oct. 7 attack, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq network have repeatedly attacked Israeli and U.S. interests.

‘A clear message’

So what comes next? A lot will depend on how Israel and the U.S. respond.

Officially, U.S. President Joe Biden has stated that in repelling the Iran missiles and drones, Israel had sent “a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten [its] security.”

But there are reports that Biden has warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Israel should “take the win” and could not rely on the U.S. supporting any offensive operations against Iran.

CBC News Video added by IC: “Israel vows retaliation after Iran attack”

A number of factors will determine whether Iran and Israel continue to launch more attacks against each other out in the open, or revert to shadow warfare.

These include how each side reads domestic sentiment. Netanyahu is already facing pressure based on his handling of the war in Gaza and previous domestic concerns regarding attempts to influence the Israeli Supreme Court, among other matters.

Likewise, inside Iran, the United Nations reports that two years after major public protests inside the country based on socio-economic conditions, the regime in Iran continues to ruthlessly suppress dissent.

Apart from domestic considerations, both Iran and Israel will also weigh the risks of more open confrontation against their current operational capabilities. Here, it seems clear that neither Iran nor Israel can decisively win a prolonged military campaign against each other.

Israel’s powerful military certainly has the ability to launch air and missile strikes against Iranian interests in the region, as they have already demonstrated in Syria and Lebanon for many years. And Israel probably could do the same for a short period of time directly into Iran.

But Israel would face major challenges in sustaining a prolonged combined arms campaign in Iran, including the relatively small size of the Israel Defense Forces compared with Iran’s military, and the physical distance between both countries. Israel has openly conducted military exercises for years that seem more focused on simulating air strikes and perhaps special operations raids against a smaller number of targets inside Iran, like nuclear facilities.

Moreover, launching a new front by directly attacking Iran risks diverting Israeli resources away from more immediate threats in Gaza, the West Bank and its northern border with Lebanon.

Of course, Israel has fought and won wars with its regional adversaries in the past.

But the conflicts Israel fought against its Arab neighbors in 1967 and 1973 took place in a different military age and prior to the development of drone warfare, cyber operations and support to Iranian-backed proxies and partners in Israel’s immediate neighborhood.

Wary of further escalation

A similar type of campaign against Iran would be unlike anything Israel has faced. Israel would no doubt find it difficult to achieve its objectives without a high-level of support from the United States, and probably Arab countries like Jordan and Egypt. And there is no indication that such backing would be forthcoming.

Iran, too, will be wary of further escalation. Tehran demonstrated on April 13 that it possesses a large – and perhaps growing – inventory of ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles.

However, the accuracy and effectiveness of many of these platforms remains in question – as evidenced by the seeming ease in which most were shot down. The Israeli and U.S. air and missile defense network in the region continues to prove reliable in that regard.

Given the realities and risks, I believe it seems more likely that Iran will seek to revert back to its unconventional warfare strategy of supporting its proxy axis of resistance. Overt attacks, such as the one carried out on April 13, may be reserved for signaling resolve and demonstrating strength to its domestic audience.

The danger is now that war has come out of the shadows, it may be hard to put it back there.The Conversation

Javed Ali, Associate Professor of Practice of Public Policy, University of Michigan

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Netanyahu, Empowered by Biden’s Grant of Impunity, baits Iran into his genocidal Gaza War https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/netanyahu-empowered-genocidal.html Sun, 14 Apr 2024 05:12:13 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=218030 Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – Despite all the hype about Iran’s largely symbolic barrage of over 200 drones and cruise and ballistic missiles, unleashed on the thinly populated Negev Desert (where it was mainly Palestinian Bedouins who were put in danger), the military significance of this action was minimal. An Israeli base was hit at Dimona, which houses the country’s nuclear warheads, but the government said that the damage was minimal. Almost all of the projectiles were shot down, by the Jordanian and Israeli and American Air Forces, or by anti-missile missiles. The only casualty appears to be a 7-year-old Palestinian Bedouin girl, who was seriously injured by a falling missile.

Iran struck because Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on April 1 had the consular annex of the Iranian embassy in Damascus bombed, killing high-ranking Iranian officials, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and seven other officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Those officials were there at the invitation of the Syrian government, and embassies are protected from military attack by the Vienna Convention.

Iran cited Article 51 of the United Nations Charter for its counter-strike on Israel, which guarantees states the right of self-defense. Embassies are considered national soil.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s clerical Leader, had said Wednesday at his Eid al-Fitr sermon: “The consulate and embassy institutions in any country are the soil of that country. The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and will be punished.” He added, “The events in Gaza showed the evil nature of Western civilization to the world. They killed thirty-odd thousand defenseless people; aren’t these human? Do they not have rights?” He also said, “They showed what kind of civilization this is. A child is killed, in the mother’s arms. The patient dies in the hospital. Their power cannot touch … the men of the resistance; so they target the lives of family members, the lives of children and the oppressed, the lives of old men.”

Al Jazeera English Video: “Israel’s war on Gaza live: Blasts, sirens as Iranian missiles intercepted”

Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations in New York wrote on X,

    “Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!”

Tehran is saying that with this exchange, “the matter can be deemed concluded.” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not looking for an all-out war.

It was not only the strike on the Iranian embassy that set the stage for Iran’s barrage, but also the six months of intensive Israeli bombing of the Palestinians of Gaza, in which the vast majority of those killed were innocent noncombatants, with 70% being women and children and many others noncombatant men. The death toll now stands at 33,686 Palestinians. Only a small clique of militants committed the horrific October 7 attack on Israel, without telling anyone else what they were planning. There is no military or other justification for using an artificial intelligence program to identify all members of Hamas’s paramilitary (some of which is the equivalent of a neighborhood watch for local security) and to murder them from the skies along with their spouses, children, extended families, and neighbors.

Iran is pledged to defend the Palestinians and has been made to look ineffectual and foolish by the ongoing Israeli atrocities, which have set the blood of the publics in the Middle East to boiling and much raised the esteem in which they hold Iran. The embassy strike was the last straw. If Iran did not reply to it at least symbolically, its credibility, and any deterrence it was perceived to have, became a joke.

Netanyahu for his part was attempting to provoke Iran, in the hope that Tehran would take the bait. He knew that even Washington had come to see Israel as the aggressor in Gaza, and that he was losing support in Congress. He knew that if the issue became an Iranian attack on Israel, the Western capitals would all rally around him and forgive him at least for a while for having brought the Israeli equivalent of Neo-Nazis into his cabinet and then gone Amalek on tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians.

In the end, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards let their devotion to the late Gen. Zahedi sway their emotions and they fell for Netanyahu’s trick.

Earlier on Saturday the naval section of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps boarded and confiscated a container ship in the Gulf of Oman that belongs to the company of one of Netanyahu’s billionaire backers. While this action violated the law of the sea and can’t be condoned, it was a wiser way of replying to the embassy attack than sending missiles against Israel. It hit Netanyahu where it hurts and no one would have cared about it in the outside world.

Now, we have to suffer with Netanyahu proclaiming his victimhood (he started it) and suffering through statements of solidarity with his fascist government in the face of the ayatollahs, with the ongoing genocide in Gaza cast into the shade.

As many observers are pointing out, this very dangerous situation was caused by President Joe Biden’s mishandling of the Gaza crisis. He should have cut Netanyahu off at the knees by January 1, once it became clear that the Israelis were implementing their notorious Amalek imperative, which implied genocide. By vetoing 3 United Nations Security Council resolutions demanding a ceasefire and by undercutting the only one he allowed to pass by branding it nonbinding, Biden let the butchery continue apace. It continued the past week, during which Israel continued to bomb the bejesus out of Gaza, to kill hundreds of innocents, and to starve them (despite phony pledges to let more aid in, on which Netanyahu did not follow through.)

Biden, UK PM Rishi Sunak and other leaders could also have defused the deliberate provocation of Iran by Netanyahu by simply condemning the embassy attack of April 1 and defending the Vienna convention. Again, the Iranian mission to the UN said this plainly:

    “Had the UN Security Council condemned the Zionist regime’s reprehensible act of aggression on our diplomatic premises in Damascus and subsequently brought to justice its perpetrators, the imperative for Iran to punish this rogue regime might have been obviated.”

Instead, Biden and his allies declined to condemn Netanyahu’s action, continuing the North Atlantic insouciance toward Israeli war crimes and continuing the implementation of their double standard whereby International Humanitarian Law applies only to white people. That is, there is not as much difference between Trumpian white nationalism and Biden’s foreign policy as it might seem on the surface, though Trump is of course far worse.*


*earlier syntax problem fixed.

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Are the United States and Israel heading toward a Divorce? https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/united-heading-divorce.html Sat, 13 Apr 2024 04:02:09 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=218012 ( Foreign Policy in Focus ) – Critics of Israel once occupied the fringes of the debate in the United States. Then, in 2007, J Street was founded as a loyal opposition to the kind of Israeli politics that received uncritical support from the U.S. mainstream. By organizing “pro-Israel, pro-peace, pro-democracy Americans” in favor of a more enlightened U.S.-Israel relationship, J Street has opposed policies of the Israeli government without challenging the foundational principles of that country.

A more radical view, however, has been taking shape, thanks largely to the extremism of the Netanyahu government in Israel and the intransigence of a succession of U.S. governments. In 2020, influential Jewish intellectual Peter Beinart published a piece in The New York Times that effectively renounced the notion of a Jewish state in favor of a “one-state solution” in which Jews and Palestinians live together with equal rights in a single state.

Given a choice between liberalism and Zionism, many Americans are giving up on the latter. What started as a trickle has now become a noticeable stream, as Beinart writes in an article last month in the Times. The polling supports his analysis. Last year, Gallup revealed that sympathy among Democrats now favored Palestinians (49 percent) over Israelis (38 percent), a reversal never seen before in the polling. The gap within the Democratic Party is sharply generational. Among Democrats under the age of 35, 74 percent side with Palestinians compared to only 25 percent of those 65 and over.

Here’s an even more startling Ipsos poll, from last year. When asked about a situation in which the West Bank and Gaza remained under Israeli control, a majority of Republicans (64 percent) and Democrats (80 percent) said that they would favor Israeli democracy over its Jewishness. Without really knowing much about Zionism—most respondents in the poll either didn’t know about or were unfamiliar with the ideology—a majority of Americans have already gone down Beinart’s path.

U.S. politics hasn’t quite caught up with U.S. public opinion. In March, Senator Majority Leader Charles Schumer delivered a 44-minute speech on the floor of the Senate that called on Israelis to hold an election and essentially get rid of Netanyahu and his ruling coalition. Even though Schumer expressed his love for Israel and denounced Hamas, he still came in for considerable criticism from Republicans as well as from those who were aghast that he didn’t call for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict.

Like Schumer, the Biden administration has been shifting its position on Israel, but not enough to satisfy younger voters on the left. Together with Arab-Americans, these voters have made their voices heard in the primaries in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Hawaii where the “uncommitted” slate has picked up 25 delegates so far. It may not be enough to tip the election—voters who are uncommitted in the primary are still likely to vote for the Democrats in the face of a potential Trump second term—but it still worries the Biden camp, which is behind in most head-to-head election polls.

The Biden administration has altered its policies toward Israel over the last months, though it might not seem like much of a change given that those policies haven’t ultimately made an impact on the course of the war in Gaza. However, combined with evolving public opinion, these incremental changes may well mark the beginning of a major course correction in U.S. foreign policy. After decades of military assistance and policy coordination, the United States is facing up to its irreconcilable differences with Israel, which could prompt one or both parties to file for divorce.

The Biden Shift

The deaths of over 30,000 Palestinians during Israel’s prolonged assault on Gaza—which was launched after the Hamas attacks of October 7—has certainly concerned the Biden administration. The president and his emissaries have tried to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu to be more “targeted” in his onslaught so that Israeli forces don’t kill quite so many non-combatants. Around 70 percent of Palestinians casualties so far have been women and children.

The Biden administration has also tried to persuade the Israelis not to launch a ground attack against Hamas in the southern city of Rafah, where so many Palestinians have sought refuge. And it has been pushing for a temporary ceasefire that could provide an opportunity for Israel to retrieve some of the hostages that Hamas and its allies still hold and for Gazans to get more humanitarian assistance to stave off serious food and medical crises.

The Israeli authorities have shrugged off U.S. criticisms and suggestions, often angrily, which has basically been the Israeli approach all along.

The most recent Israeli strike on a World Central Kitchen convoy of three vehicles, which killed seven aid workers, has prompted even more soul-searching within the Biden administration. The humanitarian organization provided the Israeli authorities with full information about its intentions and its route. Still, Israeli armed forces struck all three vehicles with pinpoint accuracy, even though the lead vehicle and the one at the back were separated by nearly a mile and a half. Nor were these isolated deaths. At least 196 aid workers have been killed in Gaza and the West Bank since October 2023.

Netanyahu apologized for the “tragic incident.” But it’s hard not to conclude that “more precise targeting” is not the issue in the Gaza war, given how precisely that convoy had been targeted. The issue is that Israel kills indiscriminately and with impunity. The issue is that the Netanyahu government is engaging in the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza and, with the assistance of armed settlers, in the West Bank as well. The Israeli government seems determined to remove the material basis for a Palestinian state.

In the face of this policy, the Biden administration’s response is obviously inadequate. In addition to the failed effort to minimize civilian casualties, Washington has pushed for more humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza. Here it has had more success in changing Israeli policy—though the policy hasn’t been implemented at all crossings and, as Oxfam points out, “It is a drop of water in an ocean of need.”

The administration has not stopped supplying Israel with military assistance or attached any conditions on that aid, despite some congressional pressure. More than 30 House Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, recently sent a letter strongly urging Biden “to reconsider your recent decision to authorize the transfer of a new arms package to Israel, and to withhold this and any future offensive arms transfers until a full investigation into the airstrike is completed.” The distressing part is that it took the killing of international aid workers, not the tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians, to prompt such a letter.

Guardian News Video: “Biden calls for Israel to push for ceasefire and says Netanyahu making a ‘mistake’ on Gaza”

As for the administration’s attempt to forestall an Israeli attack on Rafah, the Netanyahu government has announced on many occasions that it fully intends to “finish the job.” In this context, providing humanitarian assistance so that people don’t starve to death before they are killed in a military operation is a morally dubious position.

So, at what point will the Biden administration—or any U.S. administration—decide that its relationship with Israel is a net negative?

Best Friends?

The boosters of the alliance between Israel and the United States like to note that Israel is a democracy, one of the most prosperous countries on the planet, and “the largest American aircraft carrier in the world that cannot be sunk,” as former Secretary of State Alexander Haig once put it. President Obama was even blunter, “The United States has no better friend in the world than Israel.”

All of these statements are at best half-truths.

After various autocratic moves by the Netanyahu administration—the judicial “overhaul” designed to weaken the Supreme Court, the various corruption cases—Israel’s democratic credentials have become significantly tarnished. Meanwhile, the Palestinians who make up 20 percent of the population don’t enjoy the full citizenship rights of Israeli Jews. The same can be said about the country’s prosperity: half of Arab families in Israel qualify as poor compared to one in five Israeli Jewish families.

Nor is Israel America’s aircraft carrier. There is only one clandestine U.S. military base in Israel—a radar surveillance site with an unknown number of U.S. soldiers. Most U.S. soldiers based in the Middle East are in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar (with other U.S. forces located in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria). On top of that, Israel frequently engages in military conflicts that run counter to U.S. interests.

As for friendship, the relationship has rarely been all that close. In 1956, the Eisenhower administration was furious at Israel’s occupation of the Sinai peninsula and threatened to withhold aid if it didn’t withdraw. Ultimately, Israel did (though it reoccupied the peninsula a decade later). In 1967, Israel attacked a U.S. spy ship in international waters, killing 34 seamen. In 1981, Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq, which was awkward for the Reagan administration since it was then allied with Saddam Hussein against the Iranians. And Israeli settlement policy in the West Bank has jeopardized relations with several U.S. administrations, beginning with George H. W. Bush.

The Balance Sheet

So, what does Israel provide the United States?

There’s an economic relationship, with Israel investing about $24 billion in the United States. That might sound like a lot, but it doesn’t make it into the top 20 (Singapore invests $36 billion, the UK $663 billion). Meanwhile, since 1946, Israel has absorbed $158 billion in unrestricted aid from the United States, more than any other country.

On the military side, the United States has benefitted (probably) from the sharing of intelligence. On the other hand, Israel kept its own nuclear program a secret from its American friends, so it certainly can’t be accused of over-sharing. Meanwhile, Israel has launched attacks in the region—Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Syria—that have complicated (to put it mildly) U.S. objectives in the region. However, an argument can be made that Israel sometimes serves as a useful attack dog, taking more aggressive actions than the United States feels that it can make.

Israel used to be a bulwark against Soviet communism. But the Soviet Union is no more, and Israel did not join the sanctions regime against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.

Israel was a more-or-less reliable ally for the United States in its various interventions in the Middle East. But that hasn’t always been the case. Israel’s anti-Iranian positions got in the way of forging a nuclear agreement with Iran. Israel’s invasion of Gaza has drawn the United States back into a military conflict with the Houthis in Yemen. And Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria threaten to turn the Gaza conflict into a region-wide war, which would be a nightmare for the United States (among other countries).

Then there’s the reputational issue. The United States has used its veto 45 times at the UN through December 2023 to defend Israel—which is more than half of the U.S. vetoes at the Security Council. Most of these vetoes were about Israeli settlement policy or treatment of Palestinians. In February, the United States was the only country in the Security Council to vote against the Gaza ceasefire proposal. The next month, however, the United States abstained from the vote, allowing the UN resolution to move forward, though it didn’t have any effect on Israeli policy.

The United States did a credible job rallying the world against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That it has failed to do the same against Israel’s invasion of Gaza is obviously hypocritical. True, many countries are equally two-faced for rightly protesting Israel’s actions and doing little to nothing to push back against Russia’s violations of international law. The hypocrisy of other countries notwithstanding, the United States risks what remains of its positive international reputation by its support of Zionism over liberalism.

It’s long past time for the United States to reevaluate its relationship with Israel. The era of arms shipments should end (especially since Israel makes most of what it needs domestically). The recent congressional pushback is a start. The protective cover provided at the UN must end as well, since the United States is so out of step with international public opinion. The abstention on the most recent ceasefire proposal is also a positive sign.

The U.S. ending of its support of Israel as a Jewish state is a much heavier lift. After all, the United States is also a settler state, and there are powerful Christian forces that support the U.S. alliance with Israel for religious reasons. But the process that has begun within the American Jewish community, to choose liberalism over Zionism, must ultimately be the decision for U.S. policymakers as well. Divorce can be averted, of course, if Israel also chooses liberalism over Zionism. Since that’s not very likely at the moment, it might just be time to bring in the lawyers.

Via Foreign Policy in Focus

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Against genocide: A conversation with Ofer Cassif https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/against-genocide-conversation.html Sun, 07 Apr 2024 04:06:41 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=217893

Ofer Cassif, a voice for peace and nonviolence within the Israeli parliament, speaks with Rabbi Lynn Gottlieb, Ela Gandhi, Michael Nagler and Mubarak Awad.


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Israel on the Brink as Ultra-Orthodox Exemption from Military Service is Set to End https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/orthodox-exemption-military.html Sat, 06 Apr 2024 04:15:22 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=217898 Oakland, Ca. (Special to Informed Comment; Featured) – On March 29, the Israeli Supreme Court ordered the government to stop subsidizing the academies and yeshivas (seminaries), whose students have been exempted from military service since Israel’s founding. This move, brought by Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara, was prompted by the expiration of prior government actions to maintain the exceptions, which sunset on April 1. With that, the Court ordered the government to suspend the educational subsidies for seminary students, if they don’t honor their military call-ups. Opponents call this, “bullying Bible students.” Others expressed the growing resentment over exemption, with the fastest growing segment of the populace enjoying government subsidies, while not contributing to defense during war. The cost of maintaining the subsidies to the Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox) has skyrocketed to about $136M or 500M shekels under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s (Bibi’s) government. Haaretz columnist Yossi Verter argues that they’ve created their own private kleptocracy. Then October 7 brought a new reality, making the exemption for this group, some 14% of the population now, untenable.

The Court’s decision was prompted by a petition filed by The Movement for Quality Government, the Brothers and Sisters in Arms and 240 other Israeli citizens. They object to exempting thousands of ultra-Orthodox draft-eligible people from military service. The government instructed the IDF not to draft the yeshiva students in June 2023, though the exemption had expired. The petitioners responded saying, “It’s very saddening that instead of understanding that something illegal is being done here – a government decision in violation of the law – the attorney general is enabling the continuation of the illegal situation and allowing the sinner to benefit. In fact, she is defending an illegal situation in court.”

In a gross act of hubris-chutzpah, Bibi promised his ultra-Orthodox parties that the legislation they want for extending exemptions will be passed. This would not be the first time Bibi has made promises to allies he doesn’t have the standing to keep, without cooperation from other parties unlikely to go along. He’s become well-accustomed to sacrificing Israel’s immediate and long-term interests for his own political survival, not unlike Donald Trump. And any such bill that might pass the Knesset will not pass the Supreme Court, judging by their recent actions.

 The exemption of yeshiva and rabbinical students from military service dates to the founding of Israel in the aftermath of the Holocaust. Most of the European and global rabbinate, libraries and scholarship history had been wiped out by the Nazis. The exemption was necessary to rebuild 20th Century Judaism from the ground up to re-stock the synagogues, universities and yeshivas. By most accounts, that was amply accomplished by the 1973 War. The original exemption applied to only 400 yeshiva students, at a time when the comprised a small segment of the population. Ironically, the Haredim were some of the original anti-Zionist, who opposed the creation of the Jewish State, which they viewed as an impediment to the return of the Messiah. So in 1948, their opting out of military service was not significant to security.  Now they comprise roughly 14% of the Israeli population, as noted above, and is the fastest growing demographic, creating a drag on the economy and military. They remained exempt from the conscription pool when the nation has never been more embattled with wars on multiple fronts.

In 1998, the Court dispensed with the exemption, as a violation of equal protection law. Since then, a series of short-term agreements through the Courts and Knesset kept it in place. The most recent one in 2018 expired on March 31, after which, Bibi tried and failed to negotiate with the Court to extend the deadline; and pass a law to permanently enshrine it in Israeli law.

The Court’s ruling validated what many exemption objectors argued all along, that the government could not subsidize the yeshiva students, while exempting them from the conscription requirements of all other Israeli citizens. This was an application of the American “equal protection” concept, enshrined in the 14th Constitutional Amendment. Israel had no such law until 2021.    

“How military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox divide Israel” | REUTERS Video

This Court decision has fractured the Israeli government, which has been a delicate balance of ultra-Orthodox leaders and far-right secular groups promoting illegal settlements in Palestinian territory. If PM Benjamin Netanyahu does not defy his own Court (again), the Haredim might leave the government prompting new elections. But if the decision is not honored, some secular politicians might prompt the collapse. The Likud government is dependent on two ultra-Orthodox parties to keep the government in power, Shas and United Torah Judaism.

Haredim or Haredi are the most observant Jews adhering to every one of the 613 laws in the Torah, Talmud, the Midrash and other formal commentaries. Unlike the Chassidic Chabad Lubavichers, the Haredim are rigidly exclusionary towards other Jews, and self-segregating; while Chabad engages in secular outreach and is accepting of Jews who are not as observant. The self-exclusionary nature of Haredi is fueled by the fact that, “They teach their children to despise secular Jews. They do not recognize the state, they are anti-Zionist; to them, we are simply a cash register that must be robbed,” according to Haaretz columnist Nehemia Shtrassler.

The Court had given the government the April 1 deadline to submit a new bill and until June 30 to pass it, when it ruled the exemption to be a violation of “equal protection,” and thus discriminatory. The war cabinet consists of Bibi, along with Ministers Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz. The latter two argue that Bibi’s proposal does not go far enough to meet the manpower needs of the IDF, and they want more Haredi men in the troops.  Most of the 287,000 reservists called up on October 7 have since been released, but will return to active duty soon. Many reservists resent being compelled to serve longer active terms, and want the Haredi men drafted.

The drama was elevated when Gantz, the former general, opposition leader and war cabinet member;  called out this untenable situation, and demanded new elections in September. Gantz suggested that early elections would provide Israel with international legitimacy, a direct reference to public comments by the US and other allies, over the growing objections to Bibi’s leadership, and the self-destructive nature of the far-right government. He said, “I believe Israeli society needs to renew its contract with its leadership, and I think the only way to do it and still maintain the national effort in fighting Hamas… is by having an agreed election date. ”  His comments elicited a harsh reaction from the Likud, dismissing the call as “petty politics,” claiming it would lead to paralysis, divisiveness and an impediment to freeing the hostages; as if they’re on track to accomplish any of this, and actually care about the hostages more than causing famine in Gaza. Bibi claimed that new elections would “paralyze the country,” as if he hasn’t already accomplished that. He follows the same double-speak playbook as Trump with the media.

But Gantz’s position also brought parallel, but different objections from fellow Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, who insisted that Gantz’s centrist position does not go far enough. Lapid said, “Israel cannot wait another six months until the worst, most dangerous and failed government in the country’s history goes home. As long as we are a democracy, there is a tool that changes reality. It is called elections. Election now!” This places Israeli opposition leaders in alliance with Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. His dramatic Senate Floor speech last month called for new Israeli elections; and also called out Bibi for focusing more on his political survival than the security of his nation, or minimizing civilian casualties in Gaza. But it’s President Joe Biden’s move now to halt US aid to the Israeli war machine, to dignify Schumer’s rhetoric and legitimize his own.

The Bibi government is like to fall soon, a consequence of political over-reach for an untenable situation, and his own brand of hubris-chutzpah. After a series of inconsequential elections and back room bargaining, which yielded no majority; he managed to cobble a fractured government, composed of ministers with competing and conflicting agendas and interests. It was destined to fail from the beginning, and now they face a dilemma certain to bring it down. It’s a matter of time. Benny Gantz of the National Unity Party has declared that if new elections aren’t held by September, his party will leave the government.

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