I think it could be longer and more difficult than both Juan Cole and you suggest.
I'm guessing the long thin swath of land on the map you looked at is the populous Euphrates valley. On one hand, Daesh's area of control is of course much wider, in particular to the south of the Euphrates; on the other hand, the Euphrates valley is what matters and it is where Daesh forces and fortifications are massed.
Over the past three months, the Kurds have slowly conquered the villages and deserts to the north of the Euphrates, and in the last week or two, finally the north bank of the river to the east of Raqqa. But Raqqa itself, which is surrounded by a more densely populated area in which the Kurds think Daesh built rings of defenses (that bulge you saw on the map), will mean less easy advance.
Furthermore, Juan Cole didn't mention another major city to the east: Deir Ezzor, which is partly government-controlled but government forces are besieged and keep losing area. The Kurds are still more than 50 km from Deir Ezzor and don't move for it, while Assad's forces and Russian ground forces are still over 150 km away near Palmyra (and needed two months to regain Palmyra after losing it to a surprise Daesh assault in a few days).
All in all, I wouldn't be surprised if crushing Daesh as a state will take another 12 months.
I think it could be longer and more difficult than both Juan Cole and you suggest.
I'm guessing the long thin swath of land on the map you looked at is the populous Euphrates valley. On one hand, Daesh's area of control is of course much wider, in particular to the south of the Euphrates; on the other hand, the Euphrates valley is what matters and it is where Daesh forces and fortifications are massed.
Over the past three months, the Kurds have slowly conquered the villages and deserts to the north of the Euphrates, and in the last week or two, finally the north bank of the river to the east of Raqqa. But Raqqa itself, which is surrounded by a more densely populated area in which the Kurds think Daesh built rings of defenses (that bulge you saw on the map), will mean less easy advance.
Furthermore, Juan Cole didn't mention another major city to the east: Deir Ezzor, which is partly government-controlled but government forces are besieged and keep losing area. The Kurds are still more than 50 km from Deir Ezzor and don't move for it, while Assad's forces and Russian ground forces are still over 150 km away near Palmyra (and needed two months to regain Palmyra after losing it to a surprise Daesh assault in a few days).
All in all, I wouldn't be surprised if crushing Daesh as a state will take another 12 months.