I expect things to get dicier. The regime no longer has the excuse of sanctions for Iran's parlous economy. The clerics can attempt to prop up the status quo by even more military muscle but that end game means the military eventually supplants the Clerics.
Khamenei has to be closing in on his sell-by date as well. I don't know if any of his fellow grumpy old men with beards is a clear choice to replace him. The stress of yet another "Green Revolution" has got to be affecting him more than the last go round. With most of his cohorts also in the position of one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel I do wonder what kind of strains and cracks are being papered over as a new set of elites come to assert dominance.
At base the challenge of running a theocracy based on the notions put forth in the 12th Century is going to be problematic for a nation operating in the 21st. One can only paper over and patch the contradictions for so long before the whole facade starts looking ragged. Maybe Rouhani understands this and is trying to create a breathing space for modernity in Iran.
Present economic conditions will continue to work against the Status Quo. No regime can survive the acidic effects of increasing poverty and inflation. Sooner or later core constituencies feel the pinch and desert.
I expect things to get dicier. The regime no longer has the excuse of sanctions for Iran's parlous economy. The clerics can attempt to prop up the status quo by even more military muscle but that end game means the military eventually supplants the Clerics.
Khamenei has to be closing in on his sell-by date as well. I don't know if any of his fellow grumpy old men with beards is a clear choice to replace him. The stress of yet another "Green Revolution" has got to be affecting him more than the last go round. With most of his cohorts also in the position of one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel I do wonder what kind of strains and cracks are being papered over as a new set of elites come to assert dominance.
At base the challenge of running a theocracy based on the notions put forth in the 12th Century is going to be problematic for a nation operating in the 21st. One can only paper over and patch the contradictions for so long before the whole facade starts looking ragged. Maybe Rouhani understands this and is trying to create a breathing space for modernity in Iran.
Present economic conditions will continue to work against the Status Quo. No regime can survive the acidic effects of increasing poverty and inflation. Sooner or later core constituencies feel the pinch and desert.