This very much ties into the main story (in my view) of the day. A few hours ago the Egyptian Parliament was dissolved. I knew from the beginning that this move towards democracy, towards transparency, towards something different in the middle east was a facade. I went into print with as much on this forum a little over a year ago. https://www.juancole.com/2011/03/egypts-unfinished-revolution-pm-shafiq-ousted.html#comments. (see my comments). There will be no change without ideological cohesion. And as long as the United States is a superpower, and therefore meddler in chief, there will be no true ideological cohesion (because there is no chance of a mere open ideological discussion). The middle east will continue to get it "good and hard" (unfortunately) for the foreseeable future.
THERE WILL BE NO REAL CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. There will be a massive facelift, akin to Stalin shuffling his cabinet. It will be meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Anyone who believes that what is happening now is truely revolutionary, the way that the American Revolution was revolutionary, is deceiving himself. This can be viewed from two sides, as of a coin.
The first side is the side of the empire. The United States is in its last decade (perhaps 5 years) as a superpower. Her decline will be a slow, torturous one. This will be good news for many around the world. For the time being, however, the US remains powerful because of the residue and credit of her past. As long as she retains any shred of her imperial status, she will continue to fight for control over resources. This leads us to the flip-side...
The protestors. There is no one idea or concept that unites them. Some from among their ranks are Islamists, some nationalists, some democrats. Some are just young people who are there to be cool. There is no one man who can say "I speak for the protestors." They may be able to bring down governments, but due to this lack of ideological cohesion (even on one GENERIC idea), they will never be able to govern. HAD there been some ideological unity among the protestors, they would have been crushed by the US.
In sum...The US is not down yet. She will struggle for her interests. The protestors have no ideological platform. Ergo....hello to the new boss..same as the old boss.
I DO NOT believe in the infallibility of the US or her allies. In fact, I am stridenly of the opinion that the US empire has seen her last decade. I am simply analyzing the facts. The US still has the strongest military in the world. She still has interests that she will guard with her every breath. One of those interests is oil..if that is threatened, the US will take action. This is not something I am happy about.
Firstly, Mr. Bickle, I admire greatly your lucid, logical prose. It is something that I aspire to in my writing. Do I sense a fellow Aristotelian or Thomist?
Secondly, I think you missed my point totally. You see, this has nothing to do with ideology, neo conservative or otherwise. The neo conservatives, colonialists, liberals, democrats, or whatever have you, all work (consciously or not) for the same group of special interests. This group constantly plays different social, ideological, religious, and racial factions against one another in order to preserve the status quo. When oil supplies are threatened, you are calling into question the very lubrication of society (if you will pardon the pun). When this happens, the status quo will undergo an extreme shift. When people cant drive to work; when food cant be delivered to major suppliers; when trash cant be taken out, people will forget about all of their superficial ideological divisions and labels in short order. They will demand that their governments take action, as accustomed as they are to thinking of their government as omnipotent. I garuantee you that if Saudi Arabia is threatened, or if there is some Sunni Shia conflict near the oilfields, this will indeed occur. I dont like it..its simply what will happen if the powers that be feel that this scenario is at all feasible. And the people will demand that they do,,
Egypt will not be allowed to fall (from the point of view of Israel and the US). The western powers and Israel will see to it that a government is eventually installed that is fresher and younger. It will make some tentative changes. Nothing, in essence, will be changed. Egypt is too strategically important for Israel. So with Jordan. So with Yemen. In sum, the United States and Israel will allow the old guard to be replaced by a new guard. Nothing of substance will change. If the US and Israel thought that there were a potential for real change, then they would sieze the Suez Canal and all of the Saudi oilfields in one afternoon. Does anyone really believe differently?
This is indicative of the low position to which a once great country has stooped. Our power greatly diminished; our dreams of world dominance crushed by cold economic and political reality, we look for someone, anyone, at whose feet we might lay the blame for our misfortunes. Islam is the perfect scapegoat for many americans. It is incredible to me how acceptable prejudice against muslims still is. Can anyone imagine what the reaction would be if this protest had taken place at a gathering of jews, blacks, or even homosexuals? There would be outrage in all quarters. All politicians even remotely involved would lose their jobs in short order (probably within hours). Those who spewed threats ("I will throw that camera on your head") would be put in jail. I do not know all of the psychological and sociological causes for such duplicity; eschewing even the most subtle indication of prejudice against certain groups while letting open threats against others pass without so much as a comment. Surely, the only weapons against such horror are ideological ones. This blog can, and does, play a huge part towards educating the populace on the realities of Islam and Muslims. Thank you Professor Cole. Continue your good work for the sake of all groups living in our country.
This very much ties into the main story (in my view) of the day. A few hours ago the Egyptian Parliament was dissolved. I knew from the beginning that this move towards democracy, towards transparency, towards something different in the middle east was a facade. I went into print with as much on this forum a little over a year ago. https://www.juancole.com/2011/03/egypts-unfinished-revolution-pm-shafiq-ousted.html#comments. (see my comments). There will be no change without ideological cohesion. And as long as the United States is a superpower, and therefore meddler in chief, there will be no true ideological cohesion (because there is no chance of a mere open ideological discussion). The middle east will continue to get it "good and hard" (unfortunately) for the foreseeable future.
Concluding my argument to both of the gentlemen..
THERE WILL BE NO REAL CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. There will be a massive facelift, akin to Stalin shuffling his cabinet. It will be meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Anyone who believes that what is happening now is truely revolutionary, the way that the American Revolution was revolutionary, is deceiving himself. This can be viewed from two sides, as of a coin.
The first side is the side of the empire. The United States is in its last decade (perhaps 5 years) as a superpower. Her decline will be a slow, torturous one. This will be good news for many around the world. For the time being, however, the US remains powerful because of the residue and credit of her past. As long as she retains any shred of her imperial status, she will continue to fight for control over resources. This leads us to the flip-side...
The protestors. There is no one idea or concept that unites them. Some from among their ranks are Islamists, some nationalists, some democrats. Some are just young people who are there to be cool. There is no one man who can say "I speak for the protestors." They may be able to bring down governments, but due to this lack of ideological cohesion (even on one GENERIC idea), they will never be able to govern. HAD there been some ideological unity among the protestors, they would have been crushed by the US.
In sum...The US is not down yet. She will struggle for her interests. The protestors have no ideological platform. Ergo....hello to the new boss..same as the old boss.
I DO NOT believe in the infallibility of the US or her allies. In fact, I am stridenly of the opinion that the US empire has seen her last decade. I am simply analyzing the facts. The US still has the strongest military in the world. She still has interests that she will guard with her every breath. One of those interests is oil..if that is threatened, the US will take action. This is not something I am happy about.
Firstly, Mr. Bickle, I admire greatly your lucid, logical prose. It is something that I aspire to in my writing. Do I sense a fellow Aristotelian or Thomist?
Secondly, I think you missed my point totally. You see, this has nothing to do with ideology, neo conservative or otherwise. The neo conservatives, colonialists, liberals, democrats, or whatever have you, all work (consciously or not) for the same group of special interests. This group constantly plays different social, ideological, religious, and racial factions against one another in order to preserve the status quo. When oil supplies are threatened, you are calling into question the very lubrication of society (if you will pardon the pun). When this happens, the status quo will undergo an extreme shift. When people cant drive to work; when food cant be delivered to major suppliers; when trash cant be taken out, people will forget about all of their superficial ideological divisions and labels in short order. They will demand that their governments take action, as accustomed as they are to thinking of their government as omnipotent. I garuantee you that if Saudi Arabia is threatened, or if there is some Sunni Shia conflict near the oilfields, this will indeed occur. I dont like it..its simply what will happen if the powers that be feel that this scenario is at all feasible. And the people will demand that they do,,
Egypt will not be allowed to fall (from the point of view of Israel and the US). The western powers and Israel will see to it that a government is eventually installed that is fresher and younger. It will make some tentative changes. Nothing, in essence, will be changed. Egypt is too strategically important for Israel. So with Jordan. So with Yemen. In sum, the United States and Israel will allow the old guard to be replaced by a new guard. Nothing of substance will change. If the US and Israel thought that there were a potential for real change, then they would sieze the Suez Canal and all of the Saudi oilfields in one afternoon. Does anyone really believe differently?
This is indicative of the low position to which a once great country has stooped. Our power greatly diminished; our dreams of world dominance crushed by cold economic and political reality, we look for someone, anyone, at whose feet we might lay the blame for our misfortunes. Islam is the perfect scapegoat for many americans. It is incredible to me how acceptable prejudice against muslims still is. Can anyone imagine what the reaction would be if this protest had taken place at a gathering of jews, blacks, or even homosexuals? There would be outrage in all quarters. All politicians even remotely involved would lose their jobs in short order (probably within hours). Those who spewed threats ("I will throw that camera on your head") would be put in jail. I do not know all of the psychological and sociological causes for such duplicity; eschewing even the most subtle indication of prejudice against certain groups while letting open threats against others pass without so much as a comment. Surely, the only weapons against such horror are ideological ones. This blog can, and does, play a huge part towards educating the populace on the realities of Islam and Muslims. Thank you Professor Cole. Continue your good work for the sake of all groups living in our country.