Excellent essay on the political and social conditions at present. In other areas, not so much. Alevis and Alawites aren't the same; the Alevi sect began in Turkey and its beliefs and practices are not those of the Alawi; the common etymology of the names is a source of confusion. And the author never clearly addresses the situation of the Alevi today. Yes, at one time they had been persecuted by the old CHP (cf. Dersim massacre), but for the past 30 or so years, their brutal enemy has been religious Sunnis and, to the extent that Alevis tend to be more liberal, the nationalists (cf. Maras and Madimak/Sivas Massacres). The leader of the CHP is an Alevi whose father was exiled from Dersim -- which also suggests that anyone who thinks the CHP remains what it was stopped paying attention in the Baykal years. Erdogan has routinely verbally attacked Alevis, whose cemevis (houses of worship) are not recognized by the state, and Erdogan has resisted recognition. He's also named the third Bosporus bridge for the Sultan who killed more Alevis than all the massacres.
As for what happened, I don't know if we can definitively say it was a preemptive false-flag or a rushed and ineffective coup that was stage-managed but not initiated by Erdogan's forces.
But the idea that this is where he was heading from the start while playing on the desires of Western governments and western multiculti-left academics to believe that inside an Erbakan-cultivated Islamist (who named his only son for the Master -- he is Necmettin Bilal Erdogan) was a neoliberal democrat dying to get out. Twas never thus!
The purges have been ongoing for 10 years at least but starting up in earnest with the Ergenekon fiasco, several purges and redefinitions of the courts and, most recently, as noted, the entirely unconstitutional government in place.
Will he turn toward Russia? That's an interesting question. Fehim Tastekin at Al Monitor thinks he might, and I respect him. But to do that he would seemingly have to accept the Alawi dictator and abandon his Sunni allies, whom he has been supplying for many years now. It's possible. He's already disowned the shooting down of the Russian plane that he once celebrated. See http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/gulens-effect-on-turkeys-foreign-policy.aspx?pageID=449&nID=101931&NewsCatID=398. He would also give up his dream of annexing the "historic Turkish land" of Northern Syria. (The map in the school text book goes from eastern Greece/southern Bulgaria east through Armenia and into northeastern Iraq and northern Syria. See http://www.novinite.com/articles/149834/Bulgaria+Reacts+with+Disdain+to+Turkish+Daily's+Scandalous+Map.) And best of all he'd have to deal with Putin; Tayyip's petulant, but he's not suicidal. I suspect that, as he has before, he'll feint East to see what he can get from the West.
As to the cultural changes, yes. Turkey has been courting conservative Middle-Easterners for halal resorts and second or third ...) houses, and Istanbul has become very conservative away from the areas for tourists and visiting academics. The holding pf prayers in the Aya Sofya is of a piece with this trend.
And even a cursory look at Hurriyet Daily News this past week shows the last of the semi-free English language news sources brought to heel. I will be interested to see if Nuray Mert has been canned. Several columnists have been replaced at Erdogan's order and with him selecting the replacement. Dogan's ability to resist is limited because he has been the target of trumped-up tax cases over the past 5-6 years that are ongoing. This is part of the process of replacing the secular elite, as are the attacks on the Koc family. As anyone who follows Turkey knows, several telemedia companies and newspapers have on various grounds been seized and resold to allies and business partners of Erdogan. The "free press" is the press whose editors are under arrest.
My own bright, young friends of various political stripes are overwhelmingly pessimistic at this point. Advancement is a matter of party loyalty, even for grade-school teachers. A few years ago, the Gulenist union was the way up. They have all been replaced now, and the AKP union, not the established union is the only way up. In addition to which, Erdogan is developing an alternative school system in addition to the 10,000 or so imam hatipler (religious high schools) he has opened during his reign. See http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-erdogan-hails-push-for-imam-hatip-high-schools.aspx?PageID=238&NID=89088&NewsCatID=338.
Excellent essay on the political and social conditions at present. In other areas, not so much. Alevis and Alawites aren't the same; the Alevi sect began in Turkey and its beliefs and practices are not those of the Alawi; the common etymology of the names is a source of confusion. And the author never clearly addresses the situation of the Alevi today. Yes, at one time they had been persecuted by the old CHP (cf. Dersim massacre), but for the past 30 or so years, their brutal enemy has been religious Sunnis and, to the extent that Alevis tend to be more liberal, the nationalists (cf. Maras and Madimak/Sivas Massacres). The leader of the CHP is an Alevi whose father was exiled from Dersim -- which also suggests that anyone who thinks the CHP remains what it was stopped paying attention in the Baykal years. Erdogan has routinely verbally attacked Alevis, whose cemevis (houses of worship) are not recognized by the state, and Erdogan has resisted recognition. He's also named the third Bosporus bridge for the Sultan who killed more Alevis than all the massacres.
As for what happened, I don't know if we can definitively say it was a preemptive false-flag or a rushed and ineffective coup that was stage-managed but not initiated by Erdogan's forces.
But the idea that this is where he was heading from the start while playing on the desires of Western governments and western multiculti-left academics to believe that inside an Erbakan-cultivated Islamist (who named his only son for the Master -- he is Necmettin Bilal Erdogan) was a neoliberal democrat dying to get out. Twas never thus!
The purges have been ongoing for 10 years at least but starting up in earnest with the Ergenekon fiasco, several purges and redefinitions of the courts and, most recently, as noted, the entirely unconstitutional government in place.
Will he turn toward Russia? That's an interesting question. Fehim Tastekin at Al Monitor thinks he might, and I respect him. But to do that he would seemingly have to accept the Alawi dictator and abandon his Sunni allies, whom he has been supplying for many years now. It's possible. He's already disowned the shooting down of the Russian plane that he once celebrated. See http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/gulens-effect-on-turkeys-foreign-policy.aspx?pageID=449&nID=101931&NewsCatID=398. He would also give up his dream of annexing the "historic Turkish land" of Northern Syria. (The map in the school text book goes from eastern Greece/southern Bulgaria east through Armenia and into northeastern Iraq and northern Syria. See http://www.novinite.com/articles/149834/Bulgaria+Reacts+with+Disdain+to+Turkish+Daily's+Scandalous+Map.) And best of all he'd have to deal with Putin; Tayyip's petulant, but he's not suicidal. I suspect that, as he has before, he'll feint East to see what he can get from the West.
As to the cultural changes, yes. Turkey has been courting conservative Middle-Easterners for halal resorts and second or third ...) houses, and Istanbul has become very conservative away from the areas for tourists and visiting academics. The holding pf prayers in the Aya Sofya is of a piece with this trend.
And even a cursory look at Hurriyet Daily News this past week shows the last of the semi-free English language news sources brought to heel. I will be interested to see if Nuray Mert has been canned. Several columnists have been replaced at Erdogan's order and with him selecting the replacement. Dogan's ability to resist is limited because he has been the target of trumped-up tax cases over the past 5-6 years that are ongoing. This is part of the process of replacing the secular elite, as are the attacks on the Koc family. As anyone who follows Turkey knows, several telemedia companies and newspapers have on various grounds been seized and resold to allies and business partners of Erdogan. The "free press" is the press whose editors are under arrest.
My own bright, young friends of various political stripes are overwhelmingly pessimistic at this point. Advancement is a matter of party loyalty, even for grade-school teachers. A few years ago, the Gulenist union was the way up. They have all been replaced now, and the AKP union, not the established union is the only way up. In addition to which, Erdogan is developing an alternative school system in addition to the 10,000 or so imam hatipler (religious high schools) he has opened during his reign. See http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-erdogan-hails-push-for-imam-hatip-high-schools.aspx?PageID=238&NID=89088&NewsCatID=338.
That's what I have off the top of my head.