Long term consequences? The Kurds will probably be getting their own state, and rightfully so. Turkey will not like it, but I don't think they will come into Iraq to fight pesh merga on their own turf. Kurds are the toughest guys in the mix. Also, Erdogan and Ankara will be a mess of finger pointers for some time. Lastly, Kurds will not put up with ISIS - Al Queda 2.0/ Taliban style rule.
ISIS had the element of surprise and exposed Shia government failures, but the Sunni psychos are about to run into stiff resistance from a majority population with effective militias and absolute will to fight. Once free of the Sunni boot, those Shiites will not be going back under again. Support from Iran will only harden the resolve. Probably seeing the effective and final bonding of the Shia state to Iran as well.
Also who knows what US will ultimately do or how effective it will be, (we're going to be getting pretty busy with Vladimer in Europe and the pivot to the China Sea). Regardless, whatever the effect, it can only be a negative for ISIS. Weapons and drones at best. Certainly not American soldiers with Barack still around, nor should their be. One trillion dollars, The Great Recession and plenty of dead and wounded Americans, way too high a price for lighting that match. Just another great result we can thank George and his know it all, draft evading, chicken hawk cronies for.
In the end, my guess is the unnatural British map called Iraq is over. Three states
Long term consequences? The Kurds will probably be getting their own state, and rightfully so. Turkey will not like it, but I don't think they will come into Iraq to fight pesh merga on their own turf. Kurds are the toughest guys in the mix. Also, Erdogan and Ankara will be a mess of finger pointers for some time. Lastly, Kurds will not put up with ISIS - Al Queda 2.0/ Taliban style rule.
ISIS had the element of surprise and exposed Shia government failures, but the Sunni psychos are about to run into stiff resistance from a majority population with effective militias and absolute will to fight. Once free of the Sunni boot, those Shiites will not be going back under again. Support from Iran will only harden the resolve. Probably seeing the effective and final bonding of the Shia state to Iran as well.
Also who knows what US will ultimately do or how effective it will be, (we're going to be getting pretty busy with Vladimer in Europe and the pivot to the China Sea). Regardless, whatever the effect, it can only be a negative for ISIS. Weapons and drones at best. Certainly not American soldiers with Barack still around, nor should their be. One trillion dollars, The Great Recession and plenty of dead and wounded Americans, way too high a price for lighting that match. Just another great result we can thank George and his know it all, draft evading, chicken hawk cronies for.
In the end, my guess is the unnatural British map called Iraq is over. Three states